2023

Technology
Predictions
Ali Abedi, Mohamed Amin, Rosa M Badia, Mary Baker, Greg Byrd, Mercy Chelangat,
Tom Coughlin, Jayakrishnan Divakaran, Paolo Faraboschi, Nicola Ferrier, Eitan Frachtenberg,
Ada Gavrilovska, Alfredo Goldman, Francesca Iacopi, Vincent Kaabunga, Hironori Kasahara,
Witold Kinsner, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Katherine Mansfield, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia Metra,
Dejan Milojicic (chair), Puneet Mishra, Chris Miyachi, Khaled Mokhtar, Bob Parro, Nita Patel,
Alexandra Posoldova, Marina Ruggieri, Roberto Saracco, Tomy Sebastian, Saurabh Sinha,
Michelle Tubb, John Verboncoeur, and Irene Pazos Viana.

↓
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In This Report
01 Introduction 05 Comparing Predictions

02 Team 06 Insights and Opportunities

03 Process 07 Summary

04 Technology Predictions 08 Individual Predictions

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SECTION 01

Introduction
Technology Predictions—
From Hypothetical Exercise to Critical Planning

COVID-19 pandemic economic impact:1 The pandemic has created stress on our daily
lives and values:
• As of 28 December 2022, 663,666,629
affected (6,692,552 deaths) • Social distancing limited opportunities for
(https://www.worldometers.info/ social interaction.
coronavirus). • Future of work: many in-person workplaces
• The GDP downturn in 2020 and 2021 and classrooms transitioned to virtual.
(estimated 3–5%) has seen in 2022 a • AI was entrusted to assist in transportation,
recovery to 2019 levels in the 40 more healthcare, eldercare, etc.
developed countries. Less developed
countries and poor ones are still affected. Acceleration of the Digital Transformation was
forced upon work, education, and private life.
Pandemic had impact on human lives, supply
chains, work, unpredictability of operations and Technologies play an increasingly crucial role
markets. and are becoming essential.

Counter-measures: cutting costs, repurposing Predictions go beyond a hypothetical exercise

assets, eliminating middle-men, shift to “as-a- to encourage technologies to address pandemic
Service” models. concerns.

1
https://www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impact-on-the-global-economy
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SECTION 02

2023
Technology Ali Abedi
University of Maine
Mohamed Amin
MEA Sales Lead Nokia
Rosa M. Badia
Barcelona
Supercomputing Center
Mary Baker
HP Inc.
Greg Byrd
NC State, Raleigh
Mercy Chelangat
IEEE
Tom Coughlin
Coughlin Associates

Predictions
Team Jayakrishnan
Divakaran
Simons Systems
Paolo Faraboschi
Hewlett Packard Ent.
Nicola Ferrier
Argonne National Lab
Eitan Frachtenberg
Reed College
Ada Gavrilovska
GaTech
Alfredo Goldman
University of São Paolo
Francesca Iacopi
University of
Technology Sydney

Vincent Kaabunga Hironori Kasahara Witold Kinsner Danny Lange Phil Laplante Katherine Avi Mendelson Cecilia Metra Dejan Milojicic Puneet Mishra Chris Miyachi
AKEM Consulting Waseda University University of Manitoba Unity Technologies Penn State Mansfield Technion and NTU Bologna University (chair) U R Rao Satellite Center Nuance
IEEE Computer Society Hewlett Packard Ent. Communications

Khaled Mokhtar Bob Parro Nita Patel Alexandra Marina Ruggieri Roberto Saracco Tomy Sebastian Saurabh Sinha Michelle Tubb John Verboncoeur Irene Pazos Viana
IEEE CPC Chair River North Solutions Otis Posoldova University of Rome IEEE FDC Halla Mechatronics University of IEEE Computer Society Michigan State Univ. IT Consultant
Sigma Services Johannesburg

Note: The statements expressed in this report do not represent the opinions of the authors’ employers.
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SECTION 03

Process
Continued Improvements Over Previous Years

Selection • (1 year, 3y, 5y, 10y, 15y) for Horizon to Commercial

Adoption.
• This year we expanded our team from 16 (2022) and 12
(2021) to 35 members, adding perspectives from Middle • Intent was to present impact to humanity as a function
East and Australia and further expanding insights from of technology advancement, also qualifying those by
Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. relative maturity, market adoption, and positioning in
time-to-adoption.
• We also further improved our diversity both in terms of
authors and the covered areas. • We also calculated a) our confidence as standard
deviation in voting; and b) bias as a correlation between
• Authors made one or more predictions, resulting in 59
individual grades.
predictions; we merged several, leaving us with 30 that
we voted upon. • Finally, we did final tweaking and optimizing until the
last moment, with the end customer (you the reader )
• We then down-selected to 20, by each author giving one
on our mind as a priority.
of 16 votes to one technology.
• We then did another careful merging of some proposals
Qualifying
and ended up with 19.
• For each of the 19 technologies, the proposer(s) wrote
Grading: a slide discussing: problems/demand, opportunities,
In the second round we graded each technology impact, and sustainable solution/business opportunity.
• For each technology, we primarily focused on its
• (A-F) for: a) Predicted Technology Success in 2023; b)
computer science aspects.
(Potential for) Impact to Humanity; c) Predicted Maturity
in 2023; d) Predicted Market Adoption in 2023.
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SECTION 04

Technology Predictions
Sorted by Likelihood of Success
1. Remote Healthcare & Wearables (B+): Remote enabling new services. It is also bound to raise ethical 13. Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals (C+): Advances
healthcare with advanced wearables will enable patients and societal issues. Expect strong impact on business in nanotechnology and AI could shorten the time to
to obtain remote medical assistance, physicians to (short term), on education (long term) and on society vaccine development and broaden their efficacy.
perform procedures and consult with remote experts, (medium to long term). 14. Autonomous Robots & Brain-machine I/F (C+):
and both to have access to vital health information. 8. IT for Sustainability (B-): Technology will evolve from Pervasive uptake of robotic platforms will take place,
2. Augmented Reality (B): Seamless integration between sustainable IT to novel uses of IT for sustainability, clean including as extensions of the human body.
the real world and cyberspace will increasingly energy, and a green economy. 15. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) (C+): Advances in
materialize. 9. Autonomous Driving (B/C): Self-driving vehicles in AI will lead to AGI systems that can understand or learn
3. Software for Edge2Cloud Continuum (B): New controlled environments are starting to gain adoption at any intellectual task that a human being can perform.
software for the development and deployment of scale, backed by strong business cases. 16. Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions (C+):
next-generation computing components, systems, 10. Digital Distributed Manufacturing (B/C): Digital Digital transformation of monetary transactions will
and platforms that enable a transition to a compute Distributed Manufacturing will reduce the energy and open new disruptive opportunities in global markets.
continuum with strong capacities at the edge and far environmental footprint and increase the resilience of 17. Space ITC (C): As more companies send technology to
edge in an energy-efficient and trustworthy manner. supply chains. space, the barriers to entry are decreasing rapidly.
4. Open Hardware (B): From open systems (OCP) to ISAs 11. Trusted Computing (B/C): There will be increased 18. Sustainable Space Manufacturing (C/D): Space
(RISC-V) and interconnects (CXL, UCIe) the open-source public awareness and attention to trusted/assured manufacturing and recycling technologies and services
movement has expanded into hardware. computation across all industry sectors. Governments will improve sustainability, resilience, and cost of the
5. AI-Assisted DevOps (B): The traditional DevOps will increase focus on legislative actions to ensure that space ecosystem.
approach will be improved to address the increasing public facing systems can be trusted.
19. Disinformation Detection/Correction (C/D): Improving
complexity of software systems. 12. Huge Graph Neural Networks (B/C): Applications that the reliability of information in public health, politics,
6. 3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare (B-): 3D printing use huge models, such as chatGPT, have demonstrated and science will improve public information required for
in healthcare will evolve toward customized additive a real impact on a substantial set of problems. Graph sound decisions from personal to societal levels.
manufacturing for individuals. Neural Networks can represent complex, “real-world”
7. Generative AI (B-): In the next few years, generative AI structures. We predict that huge GNN models will
will be used even more, increasing effectiveness and widely be used in machine learning.
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SECTION 04

Global Digitalization Digital Distributed Sustainable Manufacturing

Financial of Monetary Transactions Manufacturing in Space Manufacturing

Remote Healthcare Adaptive, Generative 3D Printing in Personalized

Industry Verticals & Wearables Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Healthcare

Predicted
Autonomous robots &
Autonomous Driving
Brain-machine I/F Robotics

Technologies

Productivity Tools AI-assisted DevOps Augmented Reality

Artificial General
AI Intelligence (AGI)
Generative AI Graph Neural Networks

Disinformation detection
Security Trusted Computing
& correction

Software for the

Core Technologies Open Hardware IT for Sustainability Space ITC
Edge-to-cloud continuum
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SECTION 05
Comparing 2023 Technology Predictions,
Four Ways

Comparing
Technology Success (x-axis) vs Impact to Humanity (y-axis)
(Size of bubble proportional to relative market adoption)

A+
Predictions
Remote Healthcare
& Wearables
Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals

IT for Sustainability

Impact to Humanity
A-
Autonomous robots
& Brain-machine I/F 3D Printing in
Personalized Healthcare
Disinformation
detection/correction
Autonomous

B+
Driving Digital Distributed Manufacturing
Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI)
Open Hardware
Huge Graph Augmented Reality
Neural Networks
Global Digitalization
of Monetary

B-
Transactions Trusted
Computing Software for
edge2cloud Continuum
Sustainable Space
Manufacturing Space ITC
Generative AI AI-assisted DevOps
C+

C/D C B/C B A/B

Success of Technology Development in 2023

Very early Prototype Incubating Emerging Mature Broad Adoption

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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Comparing 2023 Technology Predictions, Clusters

Lowest
Technology Success (x-axis) vs Impact to Humanity (y-axis) Highest chance
chance of
(Size of bubble proportional to relative market adoption)
success of success and

A+
Remote Healthcare largest impact
& Wearables
Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals on humanity
IT for Sustainability
Impact to Humanity
A-
Autonomous robots
& Brain-machine I/F 3D Printing in
Personalized Healthcare
Disinformation
detection/correction
Autonomous
B+

Driving Digital Distributed Manufacturing

Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI)
Open Hardware
Huge Graph Augmented Reality
Neural Networks
Global Digitalization
of Monetary
B-

Transactions Trusted
Computing Software for
edge2cloud Continuum
Sustainable Space
Manufacturing Space ITC
Generative AI AI-assisted DevOps
C+

C/D C B/C B A/B

Success of Technology Development in 2023
Lowest
impact on
Very early Prototype Incubating Emerging Mature Broad Adoption
humanity
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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Comparing 2023 Technology Predictions, Clusters

Impact on Technology Success (x-axis) vs Impact to Humanity (y-axis) Chance
humanity higher (Size of bubble proportional to relative market adoption) of success
than chance of correlates to

A+
success (worth
Remote Healthcare
& Wearables impact on
investing in) Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals
humanity
IT for Sustainability
Impact to Humanity
A-
Autonomous robots
& Brain-machine I/F 3D Printing in

Disinformation
Personalized Healthcare
Chance
detection/correction
Autonomous of success
B+

Driving Digital Distributed Manufacturing

Artificial General
Intelligence (AGI)
higher than
Open Hardware
Huge Graph
Neural Networks
Augmented Reality impact on
Global Digitalization
of Monetary humanity
B-

Transactions Trusted
Computing Software for
edge2cloud Continuum
Sustainable Space
Manufacturing Space ITC
Generative AI AI-assisted DevOps
C+

C/D C B/C B A/B

Success of Technology Development in 2023

Very early Prototype Incubating Emerging Mature Broad Adoption

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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Open Hardware

Sustainable Space Manufacturing

Software for edge2cloud continuum

Huge Graph Neural Networks

Generative AI

Disinformation detection/correction

Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions

Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals

Horizon to Commercial AI-assisted DevOps

Adoption (in Years) Digital Distributed Manufacturing

Trusted Computing

Space ITC

Autonomous robots & Brain-machine I/F

3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare

Remote Healthcare & Wearables

IT for Sustainability

Autonomous Driving

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Augmented Reality

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Technology Predictions, Comparison

Market Adoption Horizon to
Success in 2023 Impact to Humanity Maturity in 2023
Technology in 2023 Commercial Adoption

rank grade rank grade rank grade rank grade rank #years

Augmented Reality 2 B 12 B- 2 B- 3 B- 4 4.03

Artificial General Intelligence 15 C+ 7 B+ 16 C- 15 C 16 7.03
Autonomous Driving 9 B/C 8 B 13 C+ 14 C+ 15 6.51
IT for Sustainability 8 B- 4 A/B 5 B/C 4 B/C 10 4.49
Remote Healthcare & Wearables 1 B+ 1 A 1 B 1 B+ 1 2.37
3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare 6 B- 3 A/B 3 B/C 8 B/C 7 4.31
Autonomous robots & Brain-machine I/F 14 C+ 5 A/B 15 C- 17 C- 17 8.26
Space ITC 17 C 19 B/C 17 C- 18 C/D 18 9.49
Trusted Computing 11 B/C 11 B 11 C+ 7 B/C 3 3.97
Digital Distributed Manufacturing 10 B/C 9 B 8 B/C 11 C+ 6 4.17
AI-assisted DevOps 5 B 18 B/C 7 B/C 6 B/C 5 4.06
Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals 13 C+ 2 A- 14 C 13 C+ 14 6.37
Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions 16 C+ 17 B/C 10 C+ 12 C+ 12 6.11
Disinformation detection/correction 19 C/D 6 B+ 18 C- 16 C 12 6.11
Generative AI 6 B- 14 B- 6 B/C 5 B/C 11 4.57
Huge Graph Neural Networks 12 B/C 10 B 9 B/C 10 C+ 7 4.31
Software for edge2cloud continuum 3 B 13 B- 3 B/C 2 B- 2 3.60
Space Manufacturing 18 C/D 14 B- 19 D+ 19 D 19 11.11
Open Hardware 4 B 16 B/C 12 C+ 9 B/C 9 4.43
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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Correlation and Average & Range (across Technologies)

Impact to Market Adoption

Success in 2023 Maturity in 2023
Humanity in 2023

Success in 2023 1 0.08944 0.91997 0.87544

Impact to Humanity 0.0894 1 0.1306 0.2776

Maturity in 2023 0.92 0.1306 1 0.94076

Market Adoption in 2023 0.8754 0.2776 0.9408 1

Horizon to
Market Adoption
Success in 2023 Impact to Humanity Maturity in 2023 Commercial
in 2023
Adoption (#years)

Average Range Average Range Average Range Average Range Average Range

B/C [B+, C/D] B [A, B/C] C+ [B,D+] C+ [B+, D] 5.54 [2.4-11.1]

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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Open Hardware

Space Manufacturing

Software for edge2cloud continuum

Huge Graph Neural Networks

Text-to-Image Deep Learning Models

Disinformation detection/correction

Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions

Standard Deviation Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals

AI-assisted DevOps

Digital Distributed Manufacturing

Trusted Computing

Space ITC

Autonomous robots & Brain-machine I/F

3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare

Remote Healthcare & Wearables

IT for Sustainability
Technology Success in 2023
Autonomous Driving
Impact to Humanity
(Empathic) AGI
Maturity in 2023
Augmented Reality
Market Adoption in 2023
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Open Hardware

Space Manufacturing

Software for edge2cloud continuum

Huge Graph Neural Networks

Text-to-Image Deep Learning Models

Disinformation detection/correction

Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions

Standard Deviation,
Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals

AI-assisted DevOps
Largest Digital Distributed Manufacturing
(Least Confidence) Trusted Computing

Space ITC

Autonomous robots & Brain-machine I/F

3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare

Remote Healthcare & Wearables

IT for Sustainability
Technology Success in 2023
Autonomous Driving
Impact to Humanity
(Empathic) AGI
Maturity in 2023
Augmented Reality
Market Adoption in 2023
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Open Hardware

Space Manufacturing

Software for edge2cloud continuum

Huge Graph Neural Networks

Text-to-Image Deep Learning Models

Disinformation detection/correction

Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions

Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals

Standard Deviation, AI-assisted DevOps
Smallest Digital Distributed Manufacturing

(Most Confidence) Trusted Computing

Space ITC

Autonomous robots & Brain-machine I/F

3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare

Remote Healthcare & Wearables

IT for Sustainability
Technology Success in 2023
Autonomous Driving
Impact to Humanity
(Empathic) AGI
Maturity in 2023
Augmented Reality
Market Adoption in 2023
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

Opportunity
How to Use Results, for governments
Technology-to-Humanity
Quadrants Opportunity
for industry

Impact to humanity
Opportunity
for Professional
Organizations

Opportunity
for academia

Success of Technology Development in 2023

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SECTION 05: COMPARING PREDICTIONS

How to Use Results, Horizons to Commercial Adoption

Sustainable Space Manufacturing

Space ITC

Autonomous robots & Brain-machine I/F

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Opportunity for academia
Autonomous Driving
(out-of-box thinking, innovations)
Adaptive, Generative Pharmaceuticals

Global Digitalization of Monetary Transactions Opportunity for governments

(funding, regulations)
Disinformation detection/correction

Generative AI

IT for Sustainability

Open Hardware

3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare

Opportunity for professional
organizations (standards,
Huge Graph Neural Networks
future directions, roadmaps)
Digital Distributed Manufacturing

AI-assisted DevOps

Augmented Reality
Opportunity for industry
(inventions, productization,
Trusted Computing
new markets)
Software for edge2cloud continuum

Remote Healthcare & Wearables

0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000

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SECTION 06

Insights and Opportunities

• Clear predicted success is Remote Healthcare & • Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD, all forms of
Wearables (in terms of technology advance and mistrust).
impact to humanity). • The world is unfortunately ruled by FUD.
• Business opportunities are a are cluster of • FUD can be countered by technologies–directly
technologies which will likely succeed (augmented (trusted computing, disinformation), or indirectly
reality, software for edge to Cloud, etc.) (AI-related, Openness).
• Concerns are technologies with large impact to • Opportunities for industry
humanity but less chances for technological success
• Health industry (remote, wearables, custom 3D
(disinformation detection, adaptive generative
printing)
pharmaceuticals).
• Augmented reality
• Long-term opportunities are space technologies and
global monetization. • IT for sustainability

• “AI will eat the world” (Mark Andreessen paraphrase). • Open hardware
Almost all of the technologies benefit from or • Opportunities for governments
crucially rely on advances in AI. • Regulate: Disinformation detection, generative
• Without AI, there’s much less (in these areas). pharmaceuticals
• We’re also predicting advances in AI proper, which • Fund: Space technologies
feeds back into the loop, accelerating all the other • Opportunities for academia
technologies. • Space technologies (ITC, manufacturing, recycling)
• This suggests that nearly all the slides could have • Opportunities for professional organizations
an enabler and inhibitor in the form of “advances
• AI-related, Sustainability, Space
in AI”.
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SECTION 07

Summary
Outlook Future Work
• Technologies will continue to be critical in addressing • We continue to eliminate bias, as demonstrated by
and preventing pandemics, wars, and natural correlation and standard deviation.
disasters. • We are exploring collaboration with market
analysts to include the total addressable markets of
Predictions technologies.
• We made nineteen predictions in four areas • In the future, we plan to devise recommendations to
(core technologies, security, AI, productivity tools) industry as a function of our predictions.
and four industry verticals (healthcare, robotics,
manufacturing, and financial). • At the end of the year, we will prepare a scorecard on
how technologies succeeded against our predictions.
• We graded our predictions in terms of likelihood of
technology success, impact to humanity, maturity
in 2023, market adoption in 2023, and horizon to
commercial adoption.
• Predicted technologies show a degree of correlation,
but with a more diverse roster this year we
experienced less correlation.
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21
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS
Problems/Demand
• COVID-19 made remote medicine more attractive
(e.g., many people worried about being exposed

Remote
to other patients and avoided going to medical Impact
centers; safety rules prevent physician from
physically approaching patients). • Broader access to customized solutions and
medical assistance
• Fast-moving medical threats prevent training

Healthcare
medical teams with new techniques and tools; • Technologies that have been developed for
remote medicine helps close such a gap. COVID-19 will be useful for treating other diseases.
• Demand for wearable technologies is growing in
response to increasing healthcare costs, aging Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity

& Wearables
populations, and the burden of chronic disease. • Integration of wireless charging, energy
• AI, ML and big data analytics in cost-efficient, harvesting, make-on-demand sensors, real-time
power-efficient electronics and software enable data analytics.
the usefulness of sensor data. • Improved reliability and accuracy of sensor data &
information analytics.
Opportunities • Expansion of the application & use of wearable
Remote healthcare and • Increasing availability of faster communications technology.

advanced wearables will enables extensive use of video conferencing,

remote MRI, remote sensors, etc.
• The unfortunate likelihood of continuing and
future global health crises.
enable patients to obtain • Cloud computing allows small medical centers to • Enablers: Data bandwidth, storage, and access;

remote medical assistance, perform computations that require vast compute

power.
new ML algorithms and new accelerators to
perform sophisticated computations, including
physicians to perform • Government and insurance company R&D at the edge; electronics miniaturization, battery
investments will help advance sensors, research, efficiency, advanced sensors, microfluidics,
procedures and consult with and remote medical infrastructure. advances in commercial IoT market.

remote experts, and both to • New classes of machine learning algorithms allow
physicians to be more efficient and serve more
• Inhibitors: Cost, the need for explainable
ML algorithms, health insurance models/
have access to vital health patients. infrastructure, regulatory requirements (e.g.,
HIPAA, pre-market approval, biocompatibility
information. • Connectivity improvements, additional type/scope
of sensors and further miniaturization to reduce testing), data privacy & categorization, parts
obsolescence / life-cycle, data processing.
cost and expand usefulness.
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SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Augmented
Problems/Demand Impact
• Hybrid reality bringing together real • Redefining the future world of work,
and virtual reality. entertainment, etc.

Reality
• Renewed post COVID-19 and due to • Innovation and Inclusion through a
5G (leading to 6G, 2030). hybrid world.
• Augment knowledge, capability,
options, experiences. Sustainable Solution/Business
Opportunity

Seamless integration between Opportunities • Low-cost headsets/hardware.

• Inclusivity (differently-abled, • Education.
the real world and cyberspace will geographic, cultural, etc.). • Miniaturization.
increasingly materialize. • Changing the world of work. • Enablers: Mind-set post COVID-19,
• Augment reality with data, multiple 5G, reduced bandwidth (relative to

02
input, simulations, etc. VR), youth population in emerging
• Events and Entertainment economies.
(conferencing, gaming, movies, tours, • Inhibitors: Mind-set (both enabler
art exhibitions, gambling, etc.). and inhibitor), digital inequality, lack
• Education (broader access, broader of standardization, cost of firmware
exposure to ideas). development/maintenance (initial
investment or technology adoption
• Wellness (interactive gym, mental
—ahead of time), privacy and other
wellbeing, etc.).
legislation/regulatory framework
• Healthcare (robotic surgeries, remote (particularly in a transnational world),
consultations...). data validity (what is accurate,
• Social (metaverse). truthful, best), health concerns.
• Retail, sports, real estate and
architecture, tourism.
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23
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Software for Edge2Cloud Continuum

Problems/Demand • Migratory computing (moving compute to appropriate resources
New software for the to meet processing demands).
• Recent developments in sensor networks, cyber-physical systems,
development and and the ubiquity of the Internet of Things (IoT), connected to
centralized resources such as commercial clouds and HPC Impact
deployment of next- centers. • Reduction of required network bandwidth and enlarging
generation computing • Development and deployment of the next generation computing processing capabilities.
components, systems and platforms that enable this transition to • Reduction of power required to transfer data.
components, systems, a compute continuum with strong capacities at the edge and far
• Maximized social and economic benefits from the wider and
edge in an energy efficient and trustworthy manner.
and platforms that • The logistic of wide-area, multistage workflows that move back
more effective use of data.
• Different business model (compared to traditional centralized
enable a transition to and forth across the computing continuum.
one).
• Need for new basic software (operating systems), programming
a compute continuum models and tools to support this new infrastructure.
• No loss of science! (ability to capture the most important
observations/events).
with strong capacities
Opportunities
at the edge and far • Processing the data where is produced (sensors, instruments).
Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
• Distributed systems with more efficient data processing.
edge in an energy- • Low latency operations, resilient, privacy-preserving (data
• New meta-operating systems that orchestrate the distributed set
processed at edge and not transmitted).
efficient and • Support for federated learning.
of resources.
• Enablers: Maturity and vast adoption of IoT and edge devices,
trustworthy manner. • New ways of computing (swarm approach). need for hyper-distributed applications, new methodologies for
• Democratization of compute, and distributed data processing distributed AI.
and AI. • Inhibitors: Cloud providers interested on keeping centralized
• Seamless management to allow services and data to be solutions.
processed across various providers, connectivity types, and
network zones.
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04
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Open Hardware
From open systems (OCP) to ISAs (RISC-V) and interconnects (CXL,
UCIe) the open-source movement will expand into hardware.

Problems/Demand Impact
• The last decade has seen a constant shift from • Allows a strategic industry (processors and hardware
proprietary hardware systems to open ecosystems, systems) to be less dominated by few players.
following a similar path of open-source software. • Broaden access to hardware to smaller universities
• Starting from system-level specs (OCP), we have seen and boosts education opportunities without massive
emergence of open ISAs (RISC-V), and interconnects funding.
(component-level, CXL and chip-to-chip, UCIe). • Open standards enable and boost software innovations.
• Open hardware standards allow for better
interoperation among different blocks, and open up Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
software innovation, and democratize hardware access.
• An enormous opportunity for the whole digital industry
from processor design, to SoCs, systems, and software
Opportunities
development (operating systems and middleware).
• Open standards allow for fair competition among the • Enablers: RISC-V and the several organizations behind
different players on the hardware and chip market. it, open interconnect standards (CXL and UCIe),
• Open ISA extensions allow to target specific needs institutional and government funding initiatives.
and create domain-specific hardware to increase • Inhibitors: Compatibility with existing standards and
performance at slowing process improvements. ISAs, dependence on proprietary tools (e.g., CAD, EDA),
• More freedom in the design of chips and systems. still need massive investments to build hardware.
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25
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

AI-assisted DevOps
The traditional DevOps Problems/Demand Impact
• Increasing complexity of datacenter hardware technologies • Impact on curtailing operational costs, time to adoption
approach will be and software stacks presents exponential explosion of the of new technologies in production systems.

improved to address the configuration management space, leading to errors and

upgrade delays, impacting downtime, and operational costs.
• Impact on improved operating efficiency and error/
downtime reduction.
increasing complexity of • As the software systems became more complex, the support • Provide better support for software development in an
process to help the developers needs improvements.
software systems. • The adoption of microservices helped on the development
holistic way based on the enormous base of free software
already available.
of individual services, but there is a lack of support for the
interaction and evolution among them (maybe too specific). Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
• Tools allowing teams to have better productivity.
Opportunities
• Enablers: Continued advances in AI, open-source
• AI tools/models shown effective for the types of detection Community, Git related support tools.
and recommendation problems.
• Inhibitors: Training cost, need to further advances in
• The problem space can leverage advances in AI technologies explainable AI. Bad source code available, inappropriate
targeting a broad consumer space (speech, visual, etc. use of not open-source code.
assistance).
• Provide better hints to the developers on how to improve
and deploy software.
• Shorten the cycle between bug finding and its correction
• Help understanding possible software architecture issues.
 26
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

3D Printing in Personalized
Healthcare
Printing in healthcare will evolve Problems/Demand Impact
• One-size-fits-all orthotics and protheses can • Better body fitment solutions lead to better
towards customized additive be inefficient, uncomfortable, and cause health.

manufacturing for individuals. unnecessary side-effects.

• Centralized manufacturing of medical supplies
• More flexible supply chains.
• Availability of life-saving devices too expensive
leads to fragile supply chains. to create otherwise (e.g., 3D-printed ingestible
• Centralized lab production of personalized capsule customized for drug delivery).
“human-ware” suffers bottlenecks.

06
• Low-volume/high-mix manufacturing is very Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
expensive.
• New manufacturing markets (printers,
materials, etc.).
Opportunities
• New 3D design tools.
• Lower-cost development. • New scanning technologies.
• Localization of manufacturing. • Education.
• Customized to the individual (3D scanning). • Enablers: Greater awareness of health
• Inclusion for the differently-abled. benefits post COVID-19 (e.g., ventilator valves,
• Medical education and research. nasal swabs); Open Access/Source community;
new approaches to highly complex, highly
• Availability of low-volume medical devices.
customized 3D design for body fitment.
• Inhibitors: Environment sustainability,
medical approvals (regulatory variation
between countries is diverse), medical ethics.
 07
27
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Generative AI
In the next few years, generative AI will be used even more, increasing
effectiveness and enabling new services. It is also bound to raise ethical and
societal issues. Expect strong impact on business (short term), on education
(long term) and on society (medium to long term).
Problems/Demand Opportunities • It is going to become a new tool to increase human
creativity and we have already seen concerns expressed
• Till recently, AI created results based on a discriminative • A whole new area of applications opens up with
and limited buy-in.
process and through inference, i.e., it DERIVED the results generative AI. It goes beyond the possibility to increase
from the inputs. The progress in machine learning have autonomy of machines. It can support human creativity. • Significant decrease in time-to-market, enabling designers/
led to self-learning and the possibility of creating new illustrators more varieties of creative designs.
• It can be used in areas like writing articles, novels, creating
results, e.g., the creation of an image of a flying horse, music, paintings.
where there is no flying horse in the training parameters Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
• It will be used to explore business opportunities,
but there are concepts of flying and of horse. This
understanding market interests. • Generative AI may decrease the need for intensive
empowers AI to address new problem areas and respond
• Faster, more accurate and broader options to illustrations processing to train AI in any new area (second half of
to the demand of more flexible behavior of robots
and story lines. Text-to-Image Engines provide new decade). Support for no/low-code.
(autonomous robots) to face unexpected situations.
aspects and horizons in designs and illustrations. • On the business side, it can be expected that generative AI
• For Text-to-Image: Illustration and design demand
• Time-To-Market will be significantly decreased. Help will increase AI adoption and create new revenue streams.
exponentially increasing due to increase of digital
channels and social-media outlets, TV and visual ads designers to illustrate faster, and help businesses improve • Text to Image Illustrations.
globally. Brands and entities (across industry) are their digital channels and marketing. • Enablers: Chatbots, Engines. Machine Learning
struggling to have the perfect illustrations and designs approaches such as Federated Learning will allow these
on their digital channels. The time to illustrate and design Impact technologies to be used securely at client’s site while
a storyline within an app, a website or an ad is high, leveraging insights from large data sets.
• AI’s application to the area of RPA (Robotic Process
impacting time to market. Business requirements and • Inhibitors: It can support human creativity, which
Automation) is likely to improve effectiveness in shop-floor
briefs is challenging when done manually. until now has been perceived as very core human
operation, provide more flexible manufacturing and a
more reliable supply chain. characteristic. This potential represents a thread or
concern. Illustrators/Designers, Creative Industries.
 08
28
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

IT for Sustainability
Technology will evolve from sustainable IT to novel uses of
IT for sustainability, clean energy, and a green economy.

Problems/Demand • Ensure a positive environment impact for Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity

manufacturing, operation, and disposal of IT products.
• From UN: meeting the needs of the present without • Potential new business — “green clouds.”
compromising the ability of future generations to meet • Aggressively deploy IT (e.g. HPC, big data, and AI) to
• AI could render renewable energy cost-competitive with
their needs. improve the efficiency of generating, distributing, and
fossil fuels.
storing renewable energy.
• IT can play two roles: reduce impact of IT, but more • Digital twins and AI could help optimize the distributed
importantly improve the efficiency of the “green • Apply the three key “circular economy” design principles
energy resources of a renewable micro-grid.
economy” (including clean energy) through technology, to IT
• Enablers: Existing optimization techniques for time/
such as AI, HPC, and digital twins. • Eliminate waste and pollution
memory can be adapted for energy efficiency.
• High energy consumption of certain computing • Circulate products and materials (at their highest Enterprises can improve ESG scores and brand image,
activities (e.g. social media, AI@scale, large data centers, value) customer satisfaction, and financial savings.
supercomputing, crypto mining) negatively impact • Regenerate nature • Inhibitors: Traditional computing paradigm. IT accounts
environment and energy costs.
for 3% of global CO2 emissions. Footprint is growing,
• Governments are mandating energy efficiency in Impact with rising demand for computing and data storage
computing and datacenters. and the production/disposal of electronic devices.
• Organizations are seeking sustainable solutions to
Massive increase in electricity needed to power digital
create material benefits from reduced energy costs and
Opportunities technologies, including AI/ML systems and cloud that
greater resiliency.
require more computing and storage. Need for greater
• Reduce carbon footprint of computing activities, • Reduced stress on the environment and cost savings. understanding of the end-to-end environmental impact
discover new ways to optimize computing.
• A more efficient, optimized and economically of IT.
• Data center waste heat reuse represents a major viable ecosystem for renewable energy generation,
untapped potential in the green energy transformation. distribution and storage.
 29
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Autonomous Problems/Demand Impact

Driving
• Autonomous, Connected, Electric, • Reduce traffic deaths, improved vehicular
Shared (ACES) vehicles are disrupting the safety.
transportation market. • Increase efficiency (road utilization,
• SAE International classifies autonomous occupancy, parking).
driving levels 0 to 5. We are between 3 and • Reduce carbon emissions and travel time.
4. By 2030, vehicles will be L2 or above.
Self-driving vehicles in controlled • Most accidents are a result of human driver
• Reduce operational expenses of commercial
operations.
environments are starting to gain error.
• Traffic congestion and parking are major Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
adoption at scale, backed by strong problems.
• The business case behind self-driving in
business cases. • Self-driving, consumer vehicles in everyday
traffic are still in test phase, and must
controlled environments is strong, scalable,
and fast to commercialize.
overcome many challenges.

09
• Software is likely to remain a key control
point and large business opportunity.
Opportunities
• Improved sensors and component
• Controlled environments (behind reliability, including error free software, are
closed gates, such as airports, factories, necessary.
warehouses, etc.) are likely the first
• Infrastructure and regulatory changes
adopters of L4-L5 autonomous vehicles.
are needed to fully implement everyday
• Commercial trucks on highways are the autonomous driving.
next large opportunity, followed by robo-
• Enablers: AI, data science, edge computing,
taxis and shuttles.
electric and connected vehicles, shared
• Self-driving can reduce driver related economy.
accidents, increase vehicle density, reduce
• Inhibitors: Social acceptance,
operational costs.
regulations, large investments, at-scale
commercialization.
 10
30
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Digital Distributed
Manufacturing
Problems/Demand Impact
Digital Distributed • Logistics/supply chain challenges. • Reduce energy/environmental footprint of speculative
Manufacturing will • Increased energy costs of manufacturing and manufacture, ship, and store.

reduce the energy transportation.

• Supply chain flexibility across many components.
• Real time response to supply & demand.
• Component precision beyond conventional
and environmental • Remote manufacturing. manufacturing.

footprint and increase Opportunities Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity

the resilience of supply • Just-in-time manufacturing: timely, local. • Just-in-time automotive/aircraft carrier spare parts.

chains. • Labor reduction for spare parts management. • Contract manufacturing: rapid change of output to meet
highest demand.
• Rapid change in component production.
• Enablers: Advances in printing precision, multi-source
• AI-controlled real-time process adjustment using non-
densification, AI repair of in-situ flaws.
destructive evaluation and uncertainty quantification to
meet spec. • Inhibitors: Materials (cost of high-quality powders),
microstructure control, cost and speed of manufacture,
• Multi-material/multi-functional components.
digital design security.
• Integrated components, sensors, actuators.
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SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

11
Trusted Computing
There will be increased public awareness and
attention to trusted/assured computation across
all industry sectors. Governments will increase
focus on legislative actions to ensure that public
facing systems can be trusted.

Problems/Demand Impact
• Increased threat surface to governments, • Increased safety, security, and privacy.
industry, and individuals. • Increased citizen and consumer confidence.
• Integration (both intentional and • Cost savings (from losses incurred by
unintentional) of numerous devices, software attacks).
etc. with vulnerabilities.
• Lower insurance costs.
• Users are demanding better guarantees of
safe operations of devices, software, and
Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
systems.
• Trusted clouds and service providers will be
Opportunities market leaders.
• Enablers: widescale support (popular and
• New technologies (e.g. blockchain,
research funding).
encryption algorithms).
• Inhibitors: Costs, increased time to market.
• Greater awareness and support for R&D.
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SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Huge Graph Problems/Demand

• Many “real world” applications can
be represented as graphs, e.g.,
Impact
• We believe that GNN will be used as
a keystone for many applications;

Neural Networks
relational data-based, the netlist many of them require the use of
of a chip, social networks, citation huge graphs to be efficient.
networks, Bot-detection, molecular • It enables new classes of machine
biology, and many more. learning algorithms to be used for
• The use of Graph Neural Network solving a wider range of applications.
Applications that use huge models, such as (GNN) algorithms can help to better
handle graph-related problems.
chatGPT, have demonstrated a real impact on Sustainable Solution/Business
Opportunity
a substantial set of problems. Graph Neural Opportunities
• Enablers: The use of GNN can help:

Networks can represent complex, “real-world” • GNN-related research needs to be

extended to support more domain-
• Better handling dynamic social
networks
structures. We predict that huge GNN models specific areas and to include many
more computational patterns, such
• Representing inter/intra

will widely be used in machine learning. as

relationship between molecules in

12
biology
• hierarchical representations,
• Finding Hardware Trojan Horses
• clustering, (HTT) and
• Port-graphs and • Many more domain-specific
• More. applications.
• Graph-based algorithms, e.g. Min- • Inhibitors:
Max, spanning trees. • It requires a vast amount of
• Special hardware needs to be compute-resources.
developed to handle huge GNNs in a • Training may be costly.
more efficient way.
• Further research is still needed in
order to expand the usability of the
method.
 13
33
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Adaptive, Generative
Pharmaceuticals
Problems/Demand • potentially patentable compound
Advances in • ease of instrument handling
• Drug discovery is slow/time consuming.
nanotechnology • The cycle of sequencing pathogens, designing effective • ultimately, improved decision making for hit and lead
candidate selection
and AI could and broad vaccines, and testing them will accelerate using
automation and AI.
shorten the Impact
Opportunities
time to vaccine • Life saving pharmaceuticals can be brought to market quicker.
• Quick response to new pathogens or mutations could create • Significant reduction in premature deaths due to disease.
development and effective vaccines or treatments before they reach pandemic • Possibly new cures or treatments.
proportion.
broaden their • Eventually, tailored and adaptive gene therapy at the individual’s Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
efficacy. genome level.
• Avoidance of widespread economic impact of pandemics
• ‘Automation of science’ bears the promise of making better
decisions faster. • Enablers: Large-scale AI; cheap and accurate gene sequencing;
nano-manufacturing and protein synthesis. Reducing errors in
• low error
data annotation. Rely on suitable assays.
• high speed of execution
• Inhibitors: Getting the balance wrong between safety and
• low consumption of materials regulation. Incompleteness of available drug discovery data.
• straightforward synthetic schemes for ease of compound Erroneous assay readouts hamper accurate model building.
production Poor data curation or sharing can easily be a limiting factor for
machine learning.
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SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Autonomous Problems/Demand
• Increasing demand for highly autonomous
robots capable of moving freely in space and
Impact
• Autonomous robots will impact humans’
safety and security at work.

Robots & Brain-

interacting with humans, to replace humans • New technical competences will be needed
in harsh environments and risky jobs. for workers to interact with autonomous
• Robot programming and control is complex robot colleagues.
and often non-intuitive. • BMIs will gradually revolutionize the way

machine I/F
we interact with robotics and electronics in
Opportunities general (peripheral –free).
• Increase humans’ safety and security: can
replace humans in harsh environments and Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity.
risky jobs (e.g., in mines, in space exploration
Pervasive uptake of robotic platforms missions, in some industrial production
• Wearable BMIs could be integrated with
wireless charging and energy harvesting.
will take place, including as lines, etc).
• Physically impaired people: implanted BMIs
• Low-power edge–computing integration
@ BMIs: maximum miniaturization and
extensions of the human body.

14
can bypass and compensate for permanent efficiency.
neurological damage.
• Enablers: Techniques guaranteeing the
• Consumer: hands and voice –free safety and security of fully autonomous
interaction with robotics and prosthetics robots moving freely in the environment and
through wearable BMIs. Robotic platforms autonomously interacting with humans.
become an extension of the human body
• Inhibitors: Mandated standards
(augmented humans).
guaranteeing high safety and security levels
• Defense/Space (safer combat and throughout the whole development and
exploration) and Remote medical technology production process. Social concerns about
(hands –free/wireless surgery). “robot world take-over.”
• Research/development: need improved
robotic “hands” for more human-like
manipulation.
 15
35
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Advances in AI will lead to AGI systems that can understand or
learn any intellectual task that a human being can perform.
Problems/Demand the capabilities of humans, leading to new the potential to bring about significant benefits
solutions and breakthroughs. and change the way that we live and work.
• With the increased proliferation of specialized
or narrow AI systems it is becoming • Greater access to information: AGI could be
increasingly difficult for users to use the used to process and understand vast amounts Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
right combination of tools to solve complex of information, making it more accessible and
• Increased replacement and automation of
problems. usable to people.
information workers.
• Narrow AI systems lack deep understanding of • Increased personalization: AGI could deliver
• New applications in robotics and autonomous
the user and their unique needs, feelings, and highly personalized empathic services based
systems.
preferences. on an individual’s unique needs, feelings, and
preferences. • Improvements in energy efficiency in all
aspects of life.
Opportunities • Trustworthiness: It is important for AGI to be
accurate, transparent, secure, and ethical in • Automation in science and technology
• Improved decision-making: AGI could be used order to build confidence in its use and ensure research.
to analyze large amounts of data and make that it is used responsibly and ethically. • Enablers: Computing power, Machine learning
decisions that are more accurate and objective algorithms, Natural language processing (NLP),
than those made by humans. Computer Vision, Robotics, and Large Neural
Impact
• Increased efficiency: AGI could be used to networks.
automate a wide range of tasks, leading to • The potential opportunities that could arise
• Inhibitors: Lack of understanding of human
increased efficiency and productivity. from the development of AGI are vast and
intelligence, Limited data, Ethical concerns,
varied, and it is difficult to predict exactly what
• Enhanced problem-solving: AGI could be used Technological barriers, Economic barriers, and
they will be. However, it is clear that AGI has
to tackle complex problems that are beyond Environmental concerns. 
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SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Global Digitalization of
Monetary Transactions
Digital transformation of monetary Problems/Demand • Above problems are great opportunities
to develop digital innovative monetary
transactions will open new disruptive • Global legal banking and financial regulations
for money exchange interactions, to certify
transactions systems under this gap shelter.

opportunities in global markets. compliance and resolve eventual discrepancy

Impact
or dispute transaction disclaim.
• Secure trading through certified agents, • New economy ‘soft’ vehicles enable broaden

16
avoiding fake transactions, fraudulent technology, knowledge, goods, and powerful
operators, money laundry, phishing, etc. collaboration worldwide.

Opportunities Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity

• Enormous globalization opportunities • First trusted traders in the market will
for trading services and goods with little monopolize top market share.
limitations. • Enablers: Global network system escalation
• Just like it happened with Uber or Airbnb, has only local costs.
disruption in operations expanding from local • Inhibitors: Local legal legacy regulation
to global, has the opportunity gap provided limitations for joining the trading network.
by legal frameworks designed only for “as-is”
business, thus creating free frame to set new
de-facto standards.
 17
37
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Space ITC
As more companies send technology to space, the barriers
to entry are decreasing rapidly.

Problems/Demand • This will also increase the demand for high bandwidth • Earth observations, analysis and communications are
communication between these data centers and with being implemented for sustainable precision agriculture
• As humans expand their activities into outer space the
the earth. through new satellites.
delays in communicating with the earth will become a
major issue for remote control and coordination. • Acceleration of scientific discovery in areas such as • IT in outer space will generally support resource
cosmology, biology, and low-gravity manufacturing. extraction and industry development in outer space,
• Demand for connectivity is giving rise to satellite-based
freeing the earth from environmental impact.
solutions. Investment in computing infrastructure part
of satellite deployments can be further amortized with Impact • Enablers: Inexpensive launch vehicles and IT equipment
other satellite-based services. Satellite-based computing designed for use in space.
• Local IT capability will enable more immediate work on
reduces satellite backhaul demand, much like terrestrial data captured in outer space. • Inhibitors: Costs of transportation to space and
edge. possible delays in human space development.
• This will expand the capabilities of machines and
humans working in outer space.
Opportunities
• Local data centers could enable more effective AI for
• There is an opportunity to combine edge and full data space activities.
centers in outer space, both in earth orbit as well as
elsewhere in space. Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
• There are proposals to put data centers in earth orbit
• Outer space IT will use locally harvested solar energy
and in lava tubes on the moon (to archive earth’s data as
although radioactive decay or types of nuclear power
well as provide local data and communication resources
plants could be used.
for lunar and cis-lunar activities).
• In the long run, manufacturing of the IT components
• Data centers will likely follow human exploration and
and systems done in space will reduce the impact of
development in space.
moving these components from earth.
 18
38
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Sustainable Space
Manufacturing
and Recycling
Problems/Demand Impact
• Launch cost • Reduced cost for space equipment, craft,
• In-space repair stations
• Construction of spacecraft and stations • Ability to manage complicated repairs

Space manufacturing and recycling • Satellite transportation and removal of debris • Replace thruster/telemetry packages with
higher-end reusable systems
technologies and services will • Coordination among players
• Software-driven developments
• Enhancement of verticals due to software-

improve sustainability, resilience, and driven flexibility

• Space sustainability on the medium/long term
cost of the space ecosystem. Opportunities
• Replacement components Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
• Construction of space equipment using lunar
• Space based manufacturing, repair, and
materials
logistics services
• Space tug services to replace expensive/
• Enablers: AI-based automation, AR/VR/digital
complex thruster and telemetry packages and
twin, economy of scale of larger space efforts,
remove orbital debris
high commercial potential, Artemis program.
• Longer lifetime through software-based Software-defined Everything (networking, data
architectures centers, data storage, radio).
• Cost reduction through system coordination • Inhibitors: Cost, lack of standardization,
• Shorter time-to-deployment and time-to- complexity of manufacturing and service
operations needs, large capital overhead. Resistance of
many players to move form hardware- to
software-based systems in the space realm.
 39
SECTION 08: INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Disinformation Detection/Correction
Problems/Demand Impact
Improving the reliability of information
• Many online public sources contain • Success would reduce the ability to create
in public health, politics, and science information that is wrong, doesn’t contain social unrest by bad actors and bad
reliable confirmation or is misleading. decisions by individuals.
will improve public information required • Malicious players creating disinformation, • With more accurate information, better
for sound decisions from personal to including realistic computer-generated personal and economic decisions are
video. possible.
societal levels. • This could also help with more fair
Opportunities elections.

19
• If we can create technology and/or
programs that help determine veracity of Sustainable Solution/Business Opportunity
public information and if this was widely • There is great value to society,
used, people could make better decisions. organizations and individuals to ensure
• Detecting and correcting disinformation that public information is true and
could involve a combination of AI accurate.
algorithms and crowdsourcing to • Authenticity verification of arts, media,
determine whether a statement or piece of public statements.
information is accurate or real.
• Enablers: Advanced AI and crowdsourced
• There could be economic and other value information verification, video, audio, and
in verifying the true of information. other media verification techniques.
• Reduce propaganda in politics, public • Inhibitors: Poor marketing and willing
health. believers, unconvinced by facts, rapid
escalation of falsification techniques.
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