1 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

BUILD-UP OF THE BATTERY INDUSTRY IN

EUROPE – STATUS QUO AND CHALLENGES

Electromobility remains the prime driver of growth for the sale of lithium-ion batteries. In line with the record sales of more than 10 million
electric vehicles worldwide in 2022, the sales of traction batteries increased significantly by 76%. This upwards trajectory continues in 2023. In
order to meet the rising demand, an increasing number of cell production plants and factories for battery components in Europe are starting
production. Until the end of 2023, battery cell production capacities could reach 175 GWh/a. This market update highlights the challenges that
arise during the development and ramp-up of cell production plants

Electromobility remains on an upward trajectory with a combined energy capacity of 690 GWh were sold of 2023, according to SNE Research, 133 GWh in batteries
As shown in the Global EV Outlook 2023 published by the for the purpose of application in EVs. This growth amounts for EVs were sold, which corresponds to a year-over-year
International Energy Agency (IEA) in April, the sales of to 76% compared to 2021. The market leader in battery growth rate of 39%. Thus, the quarter lies above the
electric vehicles (EVs) continue to rise quickly. In the past cell production is CATL followed by LG Energy Solution, expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%.
year, more than 10 million EVs were sold worldwide and BYD, Panasonic, Samsung SDI und SK On. All mentioned
reached a share of 14% of the total market. After China companies have their main seats in Asia, but four out of six New battery cell production facilities start production in
with 6 million sold EVs, the second main growth driver is have production facilities in Europe as well. Europe
Europe with 2.7 million sold units. Compared to the total Not only worldwide, but also in Europe the battery
car market, the share of EVs in China approaches 30% and Next to electromobility, the market for stationary battery cell production is gaining momentum, and an ever-
equals more than 20% in Europe. storage systems has been developing particularly strongly. increasing number of factories are starting production.
According to SNE Research, 122 GWh in battery capacity After Northvolt announced the start of cell production in
This trend continues in 2023. Despite discontinued political were sold globally in 2022, corresponding to a growth of December 2021 and delivery of the first commercial cells
support measures for the purchase of EVs in their main 177%. Due to political measures, the high demand for in 2022, CATL announced the start of serial production
market, China, more than 2.3 million EVs were sold in the stationary storage will persist in the future. For example, near Erfurt, Germany, in December of 2022. The first
first quarter of 2023, which equals an added 25% year- the Chinese government has stipulated that, along with buildout phase of Northvolt Ett has a capacity of 16 GWh/a
over-year. Until the end of 2023, global EV sales could the buildout of renewable energy generation, energy and the CATL factory in Erfurt has a capacity of 8 GWh/a.
reach 14 million sold units. storage systems have to be installed simultaneously. In May 2023, ACC began battery cell production in Billy-
Berclau in Douvrin, France. The company aims to start
The rising EV sales lead to an increased demand for As a result of the increase in EV sales, the growth trend for production before the end of 2023, and the ramp-up is
batteries. According to SNE Research, in 2022 batteries batteries continues accordingly in 2023. In the first quarter intended to be completed by the end of 2024. In the first
2 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

Figure 1: Sites of battery cell production in Europe that are either in planning, under construction, or already in operation.

Norway Slovakia
1 2024 0.375 29 43 4,500 1,500 27 2026 0.045 4 10 100 150
2 2024 1 43 470 2,000 France
Sweden 28 Verkor 2025 50 1,600 1,200
3 i. o. 16 60 60 4,000 2,500 1 29 2026 48 5,200 3,000
4 2025 50 n. a. 1,000 3 30 2023 13 40 2,600 1,700
5 i. o. 0.35 0.35 750 1,000 31 2027 9 30 800 1,200
6 2025 50 2,900 3,000 32 i. o. 0.5 1 1 n. a. n. a.
Great Britain 4 33 2021 2 2 0.2 200 n. a.
5
7 i. o. 0.1 0.5 0.5 n. a. 215 7 2 Hungary
6
8 i. o. 1.9 12 35 1,185 1,650 34 i. o. 18 18 1,500 1,410
9 n. a. 30 2,960 3,000 35 i. o. 40 40 n. a. n. a.
Russian Federation 10 36 n. a. 100 7,340 n. a.
8
11 12
10 Rosatom 2026 3 12 n. a. 2,000 9 37 2024 30 30 1,980 2,500
13 14 15 16
Germany 38 28 1000 1000
17 18 19
25
11 i. o. 1.5 n. a. n. a. 28 29 Serbia
12 2026 60 n. a. 3,000 30 31 26 39 2026 48 n. a. n. a.
20 21 22
13 2023 3.5 18 n. a. n. a. 32 23 24 27
Italy
14 2025 20 40 2,000 2,500 34 35 36
40 2026 40 2,000 1,800
37 38
15 n. a. 21 n. a. n. a. 40 39 41 2025 45 4,000 3,000
33
16 Tesla n. a. n. a. 5,000 2,000 42 i. o. 0.35 8 8.3 505 n. a.
17 i. o. 8 14 100 1,800 2,000 Spain
18 i. o. 0.5 n. a. n. a. 41 42 43 2025 10 30 n. a. 3,000
19 2025 16 16 n. a. n. a. 44 i. o. 0.3 2 10 80 150
44
20 2027 6 24 1,700 2,000 43
45 45 2026 40 60 3,500 3,000
21 2025 13.4 40 2,168 2,000 46 Portugal
22 i. o. 0.5 1 4 48 n. a. 46 CALB 2025 15 45 n. a. n. a.
23 2024 0.1 1 n. a. n. a. Europe
24 2026 2 1,000 500 Eurocell 2025 6 2,000 n. a.
Poland n. a. 140 n. a. n. a.
For companies without
25 i. o. 70 90 115 2,800 1,800 assigned number, the final 2025 32 n. a. n. a.
Jobs location within a specific
Czech Republic Start of Capacity (GWh/a) Investments ∑ 160 405 1,639
country or within Europe has
operations Available / Build-up (Planning in million EUR not been announced yet.
26 i. o. 0.2 1.2 15 38 250 1st phase) / Maximum
Source: Company announcements, own depiction.
3 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

buildout phase, the goal is to produce battery cells of more Component production to take place in Europe as well 1540 million m² of separator foil can be produced until the
than 13 GWh/a. All mentioned facilities are intended for Next to cell production, factories have been and are being ends of 2023 and 2024, respectively.
further buildout in the future. built on European grounds that supply the battery cell
production industry with the necessary components, In Sweden, Senior Technology Materials is running a
Aside from the recently started operations, South Korean such as cathode active material (CAM), separators, and plant for the production of battery separators. This site
manufacturers LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and electrolytes (Figure 2). is planned in several phases and is intended to reach an
SK On have been producing battery cells in Poland and annual production capacity of 600 million m² of separator
Hungary. During its last end-of-quarter presentation of Among others, BASF and Umicore are producing CAM in foil until the end of 2024, corresponding to approximately
2022, LG Energy Solution showed that its production Europe. Umicore opened a factory producing CAM in Nysa, 60 GWheq.
capacities in Poland amount to 70 GWh/a and are Poland, in September 2022. The production capacity
supposed to expand to 90 GWh/a in 2023. Until 2025, a of this site is said to reach 20 GWh/a by the end SEMCORP, another Asian company, plans to open
total production capacity of 115 GWh/a is intended. SK On, of 2023 and expand to 40 GWh/a in 2024. a production facility for separators in Hungary,
the battery branch of SK Innovation, operates capacities Ultimately, its CAM production capacity can be aiming for a production capacity of 400 million m².
of 17.5 GWh/a in Hungary. According to company increased to 200 GWh/a. Moreover, the CAM
announcements, another facility is planned to start plant at BASF Schwarzheide is poised to start Numerous companies producing electrolytes are
production in 2024, yielding an additional 30 GWh/a. production shortly. According to a press release, already existing in Europe. Due to limited shelf
the site has been in the process of ramping up life, electrolyte solutions must be processed quickly,
Samsung SDI is producing battery cells for automotive since the end of 2022 and will reach an initial production making short transport pathways particularly important.
applications in a plant in Göd, Hungary. However, capacity of 20 GWh/a. Consequently, electrolyte producers have established
the company itself has not revealed its available themselves in close proximity to cell production facilities,
production capacities. According to industry news, it Separators for lithium-ion batteries are produced, among mainly in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.
has approximately 30 GWh/a and is supposed to be others, by LG Chem in Poland and by Toray in Hungary.
expanded to 40 GWh/a. Following the quarterly report by Both companies have announced last year that they have Figure 2 summarises production capacities that will
Samsung SDI, this buildout phase was completed in 2022. formed a joint venture for the production of separator presumably be reached by the end of 2023 in the column
materials in Hungary. With the formation of this joint titled „Capacity Europe 2023e“. Those capacities would
In addition to the listed sites with production capacities of venture, the Toray site will be expanded and is intended to be able to supply the cell production plants in Europe
more than 5 GWh/a, there are numerous other facilities reach a production capacity of 800 million m² of separator with sufficient electrolyte. Regarding separators and
producing battery cells on a smaller scale, often for foil. especially CAM, Europe depends on additional imports.
applications other than EVs (Figure 1). The same applies to anode active material (AAM), which
SK IE Technology is another company that produces is not depicted in Figure 2, since there are only few,
In 2022, the total production capacities for xEV batteries in separators in Europe. SK IE owns a facility in Poland which small production plants in Europe. However, a change of
Europe amounted to approximately 145 GWh/a and might can produce 340 million m² of separator foil per year. this situation is foreseeable because several sites for the
increase to 175 GWh/a by the end of 2023. Further sites are under development so that up to 680 and production of AAM are currently under development.
4 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

Prototypical development of a battery cell production

Figure 2: Companies that are active in battery cell production as well as component manufacture, and own sites
plant in Europe in European countries.
The challenges that arise during the development of new
production sites and especially during planning and build-
up of cell production plants are diverse. Reports on the
Capacity Europe Great Czech
development of battery cell production sites in Europe
2023e Sweden Britain Germany Poland Republic Hungary
show that the planning is not always straightforward.
During the process, timelines of plans and announcements Battery cell
of milestones can vary, deviate from the original plan, or production
being stopped altogether. Thus, adaptations to changing
circumstances are always considered during planning 175 GWh/a
and operation. Recent examples in Europe have shown
that, starting with the announcement of a factory, Cathode
approximately five years pass until start of operations.1 material

The site planning begins with the setting of goals, which 40 GWheq/a
encompasses the specific conditions such as strategic
orientation, planned products, possible locations as Separator
well as the budget and timeframe.2 In particular, the
search for financial coverage by potential investors or
opportunities for national financial support or funding can 120+ GWheq/a
have consequences for the choice of location or the size of
the planned factory. It has been shown that the EU must Electrolyte
create more incentives and simplify its approval processes
to stay competitive vis-à-vis the markets in North America
and Asia. 230 GWheq/a

Electrolyte: 1 kt ≈ 1 GWheq; Separator: 1 Mio. m2 ≈ 0,1 GWheq

Only companies that are already producing in Europe or will start production by the end of 2023 are depicted. The secound column shows an
­estimate of annual production capacities for the end of 2023. Source: Company announcements, own depiction.

1 Northvolt starts production in its battery factory Ett - electrive.net; CATL announces start of battery cell production in Arnstadt - electrive.net
2 VDI 5200 Blatt 1
5 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

During the development phase, a pilot line might

be constructed to serve as a precursor to serial Figure 3: Timeline of the build-up of a battery cell production plant, exemplified by Northvolt Ett.
production. This practice is especially implemented by
new manufacturers that aim to establish themselves in
the battery cell market but do not have access to prior Announcement Comple�on of Fast scale-up of
production expertise. In the case of ACC and Northvolt, Announcement of loca�on factory substructure personnel
start of operation of the pilot line commenced two to of a factory

2.5 years before the actual factory went into operation. Begin building Begin building First deliveries
By means of the pilot line, the cell production processes pilot line factory
Search for of machines
are developed and cell designs tested, and the resulting investors and produc�on
and search equipment
preproduction series – or null series – serve as a basis for
for loca�on
the serial production. During preproduction, samples are
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year 6th year
produced that can be inspected by potential customers.
Ramp-Up
PowerCo designated its first factory in Salzgitter, Germany, Obtaining of
as a blueprint in terms of sustainability and innovation environmental Adjustment
Signing of first impact assessment
and uses it to accelerate the build-up of further factories. contracts for approval for second of capacity
raw materials for first Start of
According to the VDMA Roadmap Battery Production buildout phase buildout opera�ons Second
Equipment, the time from beginning of construction phase of factory buildout phase
until start of operations of a copy & paste factory can be
Signing of Obtaining of
one to 1.5 years, whereas a factory with an entirely new
contracts for environmental Start of
production takes four years on average to start production. Signing contracts First delivery of
machines and impact assessment for selling the opera�ons
produc�on for first buildout of pilot line ba�ery cells
ba�ery cells
equipment phase Hot
The timeline in Figure 3 depicts the build-up of a battery commissioning
cell plant exemplified by Northvolt Ett. The site is not a
copy & paste factory but the company’s first factory, which Factory Contracts Personnel Cell produc�on Source: Press releases by Northvolt, own depiction.
was built without prior expertise and whose battery cells
and production equipment were developed and tested
using a pilot line. becomes especially competitive if the local electricity is The dimensioning of a factory is adjusted over the
sourced to a high degree from renewable sources or can course of the planning stage and laid out for several
During the concept planning phase of a factory its be supplemented by own production from wind and solar. stages of capacity increases. The larger a factory is,
location plays a crucial role. Due to rising energy prices The gigafactory Northvolt Ett in northern Sweden stands the more opportunities there are for improvement of
in Europe and the future declaration of the CO2 footprint, out by merit of its green, sustainable production since it energy efficiency and material input in order to produce
in particular the sourcing of cheap, renewable energy uses 100% renewable energy, benefitting from a location increasingly sustainably. This is an effect of the economy
has gained importance. The energy-intensive production with an abundance of cheap wind and water power. of scale and leads to a lowering of fixed costs. Therefore,
6 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

factories are expanded or new facilities added in the long in Komárom, Hungary, over the course of one year in impacts efficiency. Next to minimisation of the reject rate
run to profit from the existing infrastructure. For example, order to reach the announced capacity of 7.5 GWh/a. for cost reduction an increase in throughput is also aimed
SK Innovation built a second factory next to its existing one The advantage of multiple production lines running in at, which can be realised by precise tuning of automated
in Komárom, Hungary, in order to add production capacity. parallel is the possibility to switch between cell formats, processes. Until now, the yield of cells in well-tuned
chemistries, or other adaptions to current developments. production lines lies at approximately 90%, in some cases
In parallel to location planning, other preparations such below, which means in turn that „avoidable“ rejects are
as first contracts for raw materials and production Although the start of operations of the production produced. Due to the high materials costs the avoidance
equipment need to be realised in order to facilitate a equipment is tested in pilot lines, scale-up by a factor of rejects is a high priority and offers potential to increase
smooth start of production. A thorough analysis of the of 20 (example Northvolt Ett) is far more complex and efficiency.
internal value chain helps identifying vertically non- requires close collaboration between process engineering,
integrated areas. These areas can be served by establishing quality management, cell design and software. At first, a The recruitment of skilled labour in the vicinity of the
strategic partnerships within the battery ecosystem and a cold commissioning process takes place during which the factory is an aspect that is not to be underestimated. With
deliberate choice of location. Spatial proximity to suppliers, equipment is adjusted to the desired operational speed, increasing labour shortage there is high competition for
buyers, and production equipment manufacturers can temperature and pressure without the use of starting qualified personnel, which has to be taken into account
yield logistic advantages. materials. During the following hot commissioning during the search for a suitable location. Shortly after start
process, starting materials are introduced into the of operations of its first factory, Northvolt announced a
After settling on a location, realisation preparations production lines for the first time. This step is fast scale-up of personnel by hiring 150 employees per
include the obtaining of permits from official accompanied by intense scrutiny by quality month, meaning that the number of employees would
institutions. These permits contain an assurance guided by specific parameters. By eventually be quadrupled from 1,000 to 4,000. To make
environmental impact assessment – among means of a surveillance system, the products the workplace attractive for the required workforce, a
others, depending on location – such as are tested on-line and off-line, which means concept for the development of the surroundings should
pollution control, protection of natural reserves, that sensor equipment is either integrated into be prepared to ensure that enough living space and
drinking water protection, and forest protection. the production line or that the products are tested infrastructure are present in the vicinity of the factory.
After all permits have been obtained, the factory build- outside the production line. For the early recognition of
up process can start. Press releases from the Samsung SDI defective goods, digital twins are currently investigated In the case of Northvolt Ett, four months after start of
factory in Göd, the ACC factory in Douvrin, and Northvolt as a means to better understand causal relationships and operations, the first delivery of cells to customers took
Ett in Skellefteå show that the basic construction of quickly adjust unfavourable production conditions. Digital place. According to reports, within the first six months the
a factory building takes seven to ten months. After equipment and product twins are relevant data sets that first production line was started up successfully. During
completion of the factory substructure, first machines are gathered during production via sensors within the the ramp-up phase over the following months, more lines
and equipment are delivered, installed, and the individual production line and contribute to the optimisation of came online in order to reach the second buildout phase
production lines are set up. the production process. For example, the introduction of of 60 GWh/a. As mentioned previously, during the initial
digital twins is intended for the new ACC factory in France. ramp-up phase the production is successively accelerated,
SK Innovation describes how production commenced The better the process steps are optimised during the early thus the factory is not assumed to produce the announced
step-wise on the five production lines in the first factory stages of production, the lower the final reject rate, which capacity immediately but with a delay of approximately
7 | Market Analysis Update Q2 2023

one year. The CATL factory near Erfurt, Germany, was

announced to have a capacity of 14 GWh/a but produced
8 GWh in 2022 before accelerating its production step-
wise. During this acceleration phase, throughput is
increased while the desired quality and process stability
are reached. Usually, factory utilisation lies below 100%. At
around 85% it becomes feasible to consider an expansion
of production and thus further buildout stages.

The mentioned examples demonstrate that the

process of building a battery cell factory is dynamic and
must be adapted to current developments. Despite
great challenges, European battery cell production is
accelerating. In the coming years, more factories will start
operations and ramp up capacities, thus the growing
demand for batteries will be satisfied from increasingly
domestic production.

Published by Design
VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH Anne-Sophie Piehl
Steinplatz 1
10623 Berlin Date
June 2023
Authors
Aiko Bünting, Hannah Lickert, Picture credits
Sarah Vogl presentationload.de/360 Line
Icons - Business; davooda/Adobe-
Editorial Stock; blinkblink/AdobeStock
Stefan Wolf, Sandra Gensch,
Matthias Trunk, Mira Maschke