INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL ON ECONOMICS, FINANCE

AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

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Vol. 5 No. 7 | Jul 2023

UNEMPLOYMENT AND ITS DETERMINANTS

Saidov Khabibulla Shavkat ogli

Tashkent State University of Economics
Student of the Faculty of Finance and Accounting
[email protected]

ABSTRACT ART IC LEINF O

One of the major macroeconomic indicators of the country, which essence Article history:
signifies the vital aspect of the whole population, is unemployment. It poses Received 04 May 2023
significant challenges for all countries since employment stands as one of Received in revised form
the key determinants for economic growth. To be precise, employment 04 Jun 2023
provides the means for living for all people to sustain not only their social Accepted 27 Jul 2023
but economic and political well-being as well. Therefore, it is a subject of
great importance for states to maintain low unemployment rates, and those
of the great authority should contribute to the establishment of policies
regarding the development of the unemployment indicator.

Keywords:
macroeconomic
indicators,unemploy
ment issue,
methodology, data
description, prior
expectations

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Motivation of the research

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Vol. 5 No. 7 | Jul 2023 132

One of the major macroeconomic indicators of the country, which essence signifies the vital aspect of
the whole population, is unemployment. It poses significant challenges for all countries since
employment stands as one of the key determinants for economic growth. To be precise, employment
provides the means for living for all people to sustain not only their social but economic and political
well-being as well. Therefore, it is a subject of great importance for states to maintain low
unemployment rates, and those of the great authority should contribute to the establishment of policies
regarding the development of the unemployment indicator. To achieve any progress in the respective
area, firstly, the main factors affecting unemployment should be identified. Therefore, the purpose of
this research is to identify the determinants of unemployment in the selected country of China, and
based on the results, provide policy recommendations.
Literature review
Given the attention and importance the unemployment issue receives in today’s world, many studies
tried to identify unemployment’s explanatory variables. Different researchers approached different
frameworks on the obtainment of the results. To be precise, some used macroeconomic determinants
and evaluated their effect on unemployment. Other experts took into account individuals’ characteristics
and their chances of being employed.
Arslan (2014) in his study examined the unemployment rate and its tendency of change on the
macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, GDP and population growths, and FDI, in Pakistan
throughout 1999 and 2010. The method for obtaining the corresponding relationships was OLS
regression. Arslan (2014) established the significant effect of FDI, GDP, and population growths on
unemployment. The inflation rate was identified as a non-significant variable for the dependent
variable. The respective relationships for significant determinants were in accordance with the major
economic theories. To be precise, FDI and GDP possessed inverse linkage with unemployment, while
population growth had a direct relationship (Arslan, 2014).
Maqbool et al. (2013) conducted similar to Arslan's (2014) research that studied the relationship of
various macroeconomic indicators, such as population growth, GDP, FDI, inflation, and external debt,
on the unemployment in Pakistan between 1976 and 2012. The results of the research suggested
significant negative relationships of GDP, FDI, and inflation and a significant positive relationship
between population growth on unemployment. Thereby, external debt was identified as a non-
significant explanatory variable of unemployment. In contrast to the mentioned study by Arslan (2014),
the results of a more recent study of unemployment in Pakistan provided the significance of inflation in
the determination of unemployment. The results were also in accordance with the economic theses
(Maqbool et al., 2013).
Mushfiqul (2020) studied the effect of macroeconomic variables on unemployment in Bangladesh using
time-series data between 1991 and 2018. Since the obtained data for variables were not stationary,
vector regression was applied in the study to estimate the respective effects. In the research, gross
domestic product (GDP), inflation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) were taken as explanatory
determinants. The results of the study showed the positive significant relationship of GDP on
unemployment, the negative insignificant effect of inflation on the dependent variable, and the positive
significant impact of FDI on unemployment. The obtained relationships for GDP and FDI contradict the
economic theories on their effect on unemployment (Mushfiqul, 2020).
Eita (2010) investigated the determinants of unemployment in Namibia from the macroeconomic
perspective, taking real wages, total investment, inflation, and productivity gap as explanatory
indicators of unemployment. The corresponding estimates were in accordance with the yearly data
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Vol. 5 No. 7 | Jul 2023 133

between 1971 and 2007. It was established by Eita (2010) that: a rise in income increases
unemployment; there is an inverse significant effect between inflation and unemployment; with the
capital increase follows the reduction in unemployment; there is an increase in unemployment when
productivity difference rises. The estimated relationships followed the economic theories and the results
of previous similar studies (Eita, 2010).
In contrast to other studies, Kingdon and Knight (2001) researched what factors determine the
probability of being employed in South Africa based on individuals’ and household’s characteristics.
Due to the complexity of the research question, the method of obtaining data for variables was the
distribution of household-level questionnaires. It was established in the study that the major factors
affecting the likelihood of employment are the educational attainment of an individual and their
previous experience in the world of work. The obtained results also suggested that unemployment is
dependent on other factors, such as place of residence, gender, race, etc. (Kingdon and Knight, 2001).
Methodology, data description, and prior expectations
The next macroeconomic indicators were selected for the regression model to establish their effect on
the unemployment rate in the chosen country of China:
UR = β0 + β1*PG + β2*REM + β3*nGDP + β4*CPI
“UR” stands for the unemployment rate, which is a dependent variable expressed in the percentage
form. The unemployment rate is defined as the share of total workers that are without a job but are
willing to work.
“PG” stands for the population growth of the country, which is an explanatory variable of
unemployment expressed in percentage form. Population growth refers to the change in total population
over the period, which can be attributed to the prevalence of fertility over mortality or even migration of
the population. As the economic theory and other studies mentioned in the literature review suggest,
there is an expectation of this variable to possess a positive linkage with unemployment.
“REM” represents remittance inflow to the country, which is an independent variable measured in the
natural logarithm. Remittances in the model refer to any funds reception to the population of one
country from abroad. Although the mentioned studies did not estimate the effect of remittances on the
unemployment rate, it is believed that remittances possess a direct relationship to unemployment. The
reason behind such assumption is that additional funds received by the country’s residents may change
their attitude towards their working time and, consequently, substitute it with leisure time. Therefore,
resulting in the rise of the unemployment rate.
“nGDP” represents the nominal gross domestic product, which is an independent explanatory variable
expressed in the natural logarithm. Nominal GDP refers to the combined value of total products
manufactured by local producers in one year, and not considering the inflation effect. The growth of
GDP is highly associated with the creation of new jobs. Therefore, there is an expectation of GDP to
have a negative effect on the dependent variable of unemployment. The economic theory that depicts
the inverse relationship between unemployment and GDP is referred to as Okun’s Law.
“CPI” refers to the inflation rate, which is an independent variable measured in percentages. The
inflation rate represents an annual percentage difference in the prices over some time. According to the
Phillips Curve, which establishes the connection between inflation and unemployment, it is expected
that there is a negative linkage between inflation and the unemployment rate.
All data estimates for corresponding independent and dependent variables were acquired from the
World Bank Open Data. The established regression model for the unemployment determinants of China
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Vol. 5 No. 7 | Jul 2023 134

is in accordance with the yearly data between 1991 and 2019. Hence, there is the total of 29
observations. The reason for such a relatively small number of observations is the data unavailability for
the unemployment estimates before 1991.
Table 1.

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 29

F(4, 24) = 144.10
Model 16.1575731 4 4.03939329 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual .672770114 24 .028032088 R-squared = 0.9600
Adj R-squared = 0.9534
Total 16.8303433 28 .601083688 Root MSE = .16743

UNEMPLOYMENT Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

PG -2.85505 .2816423 -10.14 0.000 -3.436332 -2.273769

nGDP -.2740085 .0949337 -2.89 0.008 -.4699421 -.0780749
REM .1825506 .057019 3.20 0.004 .0648691 .3002321
CPI -.0006239 .0065937 -0.09 0.925 -.0142326 .0129847
_cons 9.781046 2.12768 4.60 0.000 5.389731 14.17236

Interpretation of empirical results

The obtained findings of the regression model are provided in Table 1. Therefore, we can now estimate
the fitted model of unemployment determinants with respect of their significance:
UR = 9.781 – 2.85505*PG – 0.274*nGDP + 0.18255*REM
According to table 1, population growth possesses an inverse significant relationship with the
unemployment rate. To be precise, 1 percent growth in the total population would reduce the
unemployment rate by 2.85505 percent, holding all other variables equal. The results of the effect of
population growth on unemployment are inconsistent with the economic theory and findings of Arslan
(2014) and Maqbool et al. (2013).
As Table 1 suggests, the coefficient for nominal gross domestic product is negative and statistically
significant. It is established that a 1 percentage increase in the nominal GDP would decrease
unemployment by 0.00274 percent with the ceteris paribus effect. The obtained negative linkage is in
line with the economic theory and the findings of Maqbool et al. (2013) and partly with the study of
Arslan (2014), where the researcher considered the GDP growth as the explanatory variable of
unemployment.
Table 1 presents a statistically significant and positive relationship of received remittances on the
unemployment rate. The results suggest that a 1 percentage increase in the remittances inflow for the
country is associated with the 0.0018255 percentage rise in the rate of unemployment. The positive
effect for the variable of remittances is in accordance with the prior expectation of a direct relationship
between independent and dependent variables.
Inflation is identified as the statistically insignificant determinant of the unemployment rate and
therefore not included in the fitted model. The result of significance is consistent with the findings of
Arslan (2014) and Mushfiqul (2020), but not in accordance with the studies of Maqbool et al. (2013)
and Eita (2010). However, the negative relationship is supported by the Philips Curve and the studies of
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Vol. 5 No. 7 | Jul 2023 135

Maqbool et al. (2013) and Eita (2010).

The 96% estimate of R-squared suggests that the regression model is well fitted. Therefore, it implies
that 96% variability for the unemployment rate is explained by its determinants.
Conclusion
Since a rise in unemployment rates poses significant obstacles in achieving countries’ prosperity, the
matter of reduction in the rates of unemployment is well-recognized globally. Previous studies identify
that unemployment can be determined both through macroeconomic and household-level frameworks.
However, the purpose of this study was the exploration of macroeconomic determinants for the
unemployment rate in the selected country of China.
The obtained results suggest that macroeconomic indicators, such as nominal GDP, personal
remittances, and population growth possess significant essence for the unemployment determination,
while inflation is found to be statistically insignificant. GDP is found to possess an inverse linkage with
unemployment; population growth is associated with the expansion of employment, which contradicts
the results of previous studies; and an increase in remittances has a positive relationship with the
unemployment rate, as was expected. The only recommendation for the policy-makers based on the
findings, to attribute to the low unemployment rate in the country, would be to lower the interest rate in
order to expand the investment opportunities, resulting in the creation of the new workplaces and the
expansion of the economy.
This study possesses some limitations in the context of an insignificant number of observations,
contradicting estimates of the relationship between independent and dependent variables, etc. Future
studies should overcome the respective obstacles for the corresponding issue. Moreover, as few
researches investigated the non-macroeconomic determinants of unemployment, future studies should
focus on the individual and household-level characteristics as the determinants for successful
employment.
OLS Assumptions
Table 2.
OLS Assumption Null Hypothesis Stata function P-value Decision
Normality Normality of “Swilk r” 0.49182 Fail to reject H0
residuals
Homoscedasticity Constant variance “estat hettest” 0.3137 Fail to reject H0

Multi-collinearity Mean vif < 10 “vif” 7.12 No collinearity

Model No missing “ovtest” 0.0826 Fail to reject H0
determination variables

Table 2 presents satisfactory results for OLS assumptions.

Conclusion: P-values for all four assumptions are compared with the 0.05. If the p-value is greater than
0.05, we fail to reject H0. Based on the conclusion, we accept the hypotheses and it can be stated that
four assumptions are followed in the regression model.

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Vol. 5 No. 7 | Jul 2023 136

Normality test
Shapiro-Wilk W test for normal data

Variable Obs W V z Prob>z

r 29 0.96741 1.010 0.021 0.49182

Heteroscedasticity test
Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity
Ho: Constant variance
Variables: fitted values of UNEMPLOYMENT

chi2(1) = 1.01
Prob > chi2 = 0.3137

Multicollinearity test

Variable VIF 1/VIF

nGDP 12.73 0.078559

REM 8.09 0.123607
PG 6.26 0.159672
CPI 1.38 0.725722

Mean VIF 7.12

Model specification test

Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of UNEMPLOYMENT
Ho: model has no omitted variables
F(3, 21) = 2.56
Prob > F = 0.0826
Table 3. (Data figures for all variables).
Population
Year Unemployment growth Inflation GDP Remittances
1991 5,550000191 2,039729635 13,87024 270105341879,23 3289109375
1992 5,610000134 2,003177618 11,78782 288208430383,96 2897425537
1993 5,71999979 1,97063456 6,326893 279296022987,92 3522788086
1994 5,75 1,943244886 10,24793 327275583539,56 5856694336
1995 5,75 1,918940549 10,22488 360281952716,80 6222996282
1996 5,75 1,89521886 8,977147 392897054348,07 8765693607

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1997 5,739999771 1,869172711 7,164247 415867753863,87 10330965043

1998 5,739999771 1,839658073 13,23085 421351477504,74 9479300350
1999 5,78000021 1,80556042 4,669815 458820417337,81 11124280843
2000 5,75 1,768125412 4,009439 468394937262,37 12883465957
2001 5,730000019 1,728767638 3,77929 485441014538,64 14273018778
2002 5,769999981 1,689562681 4,297158 514937948870,08 15735736286
2003 5,769999981 1,651490906 3,805869 607699285433,87 20999150983
2004 5,71999979 1,61530759 3,767237 709148514804,66 18750377107
2005 5,650000095 1,57971029 4,246351 820381595512,90 22125089480
2006 5,519999981 1,545696178 5,796518 940259888792,14 28333642280
2007 5,409999847 1,50922207 6,372881 1216735441524,86 37216755275
2008 5,360000134 1,46489008 8,349267 1198895582137,51 49977276916
2009 5,610000134 1,4105823 10,88235 1341886602798,69 49203912009
2010 5,650000095 1,350339045 11,98939 1675615335600,56 53479960083
2011 5,650000095 1,28857558 8,858361 1823050405350,42 62499075445
2012 5,659999847 1,231622928 9,312446 1827637859135,70 68820517838
2013 5,670000076 1,18301607 10,90764 1856722121394,53 69970360847
2014 5,599999905 1,145623988 6,353195 2039127446298,55 70388642797
2015 5,559999943 1,116633091 5,872427 2103587817041,78 68909693353
2016 5,510000229 1,08988008 4,941026 2294797978291,98 62744364090
2017 5,409999847 1,062597394 2,490887 2652754685834,59 68967175500
2018 5,329999924 1,03732336 4,860699 2713165057513,35 78790170929
2019 5,269999981 1,015106028 7,659695 2868929415617,02 83332078002

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Copyright (c) 2023 Author (s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of E-mail address: [email protected]
Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).To view a copy of this license, visit Peer review under responsibility of Emil Kaburuan.
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