Community Hospital Evening Operating Room

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Community Hospital Evening Operating Room

Problem Statement:

The Community Hospital has a single operating room that is staffed by a single operating room
team during the evening hours (after 11 PM and before 7 AM). The hospital typically receives
62 patients per year who require surgery during these hours. The average service time for
surgery is 80.79 minutes.

The hospital is considering whether to have a backup operating room team available during the
evening hours. The hospital defines "significant" as a probability of 1% or greater.

Analysis:

P(x) = (λ^x e^(-λ)) / x!

where:

• λ is the average arrival rate of patients per hour


• x is the number of patients that arrive
• x! is the factorial of x

In this case, the average arrival rate of patients is 0.0212 patients per hour. The service rate is
0.7427 patients per hour. So, the probability of having 0, 1, 2, 3, or more patients arrive in an
hour is:

P(0) = (0.0212^0 e^ (-0.0212)) / 0! = 0.9790


P(1) = (0.0212^1 e^ (-0.0212)) / 1! = 0.0208
P(2) = (0.0212^2 e^ (-0.0212)) / 2! = 0.0002
P(3) = (0.0212^3 e^ (-0.0212)) / 3! = 0.0000

The probability of having two or more patients arrive simultaneously is 0.0008, which is less
than 1%. Therefore, the hospital should not have a backup operating room team available
during the evening hours.

Dipasha Saxena PGP14071


Recommendation:

Based on the analysis, the hospital should not have a backup operating room team available
during the evening hours. The probability of having two or more patients arrive simultaneously
is very low, and the cost of having a backup team would likely outweigh the benefits.

Dipasha Saxena PGP14071

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