A.

Measuring Probability • Probabilities 0 and 1

The two extremes of probability are certainty at one end
Probability (a change) is a way of describing the
of the scale and impossibility at the other.
likelihood of different possible outcome occuring as a
Experiment Certain Event Impossible
result of some experiment.
Event
It is important in probability to distinguish experiments Rolling a single The result is in The result is a 7
from the outcomes which they may generate. Here are die the range 1 to 6
inclusive
few examples.

Experiment Possible Outcomes Tossing a coin Getting either Getting neither

Guessing athe answer a four- A heads or tails heads nor tails.
option multiple choice B
question. C • Certainty
D Probability of an event which is certain is one.
Predicting the next vehicle to Car 𝑛(𝐴)
=1
go past the corner of Truck 𝑛(𝑠)
my road Bus n(A) = number of ways that the event can occur.
Lorry n(s) = total number of possible event.
Bicycle • Impossibility
Van For impossible events, the number of ways that event
Other can occur n(A), is zero.
Tossing a coin Heads 𝑛(𝐴) 0
= =0
Tails 𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛(𝑆)
• The complementof an event
The complement of an event A, denoted by A’, is the
Another word for experiment is trial and you should
event not-A, that is the event ‘A does not happen’.
know is event. This often describes several outcomes
𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1
put together. However, the term event is also often used
to describe a single outcome.

B. Estimating Probability

Experimental estimation of probability

In many situations probabilities are estimated on the C. The Probability of either one
basis of data collected experimentally eventor another
𝑛(𝑈)
Estimated 𝑃(𝑈) = Where two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, the
𝑛(𝑇)
probability that either A or B occurs is equal to the sum
𝑃(𝑈) = Probability the next outcome.
of the separate probabilities of A and B occuring.
𝑛(𝑈) = Number of Outcome.
𝑛(𝑇) = Number of total event.
Theoritical estimation of probability
There are, however, some situation where you do not
need to collect data to make an estimate of probability.
For example, when tossing a coin.
1 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
2
𝑃(𝐻) = Probability of the next toss showing heads. Where two events, A and B, are not mutually exclusive,
1 = Number of ways getting the outcome heads. the probability that either A or B occurs is equal to the
2 = Total number of possible outcomes. sum of the separate probabilities of A and B occurring
Express formally, the probability, P(A), of event A minus the probability of A and B occurring together.
occuring is:
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑆)
P(A) = porbability of event A occuring.
N(A) = number of ways that event A can occur.
𝑃(𝐴𝑜𝑟𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
N(S) = Total number of ways that the possible events can
occur 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Catatan Si Thamrin 1
Independent and dependent events Sample Question :

For two independent events, A and B, [9709_s14_qp_63_006]

1. Tom and Ben play a game repeatedly. The
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵). probability that tom wins any game is 0.3. Each
game is wonby either Tom or Ben. Tom and Ben stop
In situation like this the possible outcomes resulting
playing when one of them (to be called the
from the different experiments are often shown on a
champion) has won two games.
tree diagram.
(i) Find the probability that Ben becomes the
Conditional Probability
champion after playing exactly 2 games.
Conditional probability is used when you’re your (ii) Find the probability that Ben becomes the
estimate of the probability of an event is altered by your champion.
knowledge of whether some other event has occurred (iii) Given that Tom becomes the champion, find the
probability that he won the 2nd game.

[9709_s15_qp_61_003]
2. Jason throws two fair dice, each faces numbered
1 to 6. Event A ‘one of the numbers obtained is
divisible by 3 and the other number is not divisible
by 3’. Event B ‘the product of the two numbers
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) obtained is even’.
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = The probability of B given A (i) Determine whether events A and B are
independent, showing your working
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)= The probability of both A and B.
(ii) Are events A and B mutually excusive? Justify
𝑃(𝐴) = The probability of A your answer.

If A and B are independent, then 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′) and [9709_s15_qp_63_004]

this just P(B). 3. A pet shop has 9 rabbits for sale, 6 of which are
′
If A and B are dependent, then 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) ≠ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴 ) white. A random sample of two rabbits is chosen
without replacement.
For dependent events 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
For independent events 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) (i) Show that the probability that exactly one of the
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = the probability of both A and B occuring. 1
two rabbits in the sample is white is .
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = The probability of B occuring, given that A has 2
(ii) Cnstruct the probability distribution table for the
occurred.
number of white rabbits in the sample.
𝑃(𝐴) = The probability of A occuring.
(iii) Find the expected value of the number of white
rabbits in the sample.
The ideas in the last example can be expressed more
generally for any two dependent events, A and B in the
tree diagram.

The tree diagram shows you that

𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵)

= 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)

Catatan Si Thamrin 2