Key Data Points for Guesstimates

A. Population C. Rural v/s Urban F. Sector- wise (%age of GDP)

A. Rural: 70% A. Agriculture: 15%
A. India: 1.3 Bn (130 Crores)
B. Urban: 30% B. Industry: 30%
B. Lucknow: 3.3 Mn
C. Top 10 cities – 7% C. Service: 55%
C. Uttar Pradesh: 220 Mn
D. Delhi UA: 16 Mn
E. Mumbai UA: 18 Mn G. Occupation
F. Kolkata UA: 14 Mn D. Age A. Agriculture – 50%
G. Bangalore: 8.5 Mn A. <35 years: 65% B. Industry – 20%
H. Growth Rate: 1.2% B. <25 years: 50% C. Services – 30%
I. Birth Rate: 20/1000 C. 0-6 years: 15%
J. Death Rate: 7.5/1000 D. 7-14 years: 15% H. Others
K. Life Expectancy: 70 years E. 15-25 years: 20% A. Literacy Rates
F. 25-35 years: 15% A. India – 75%
G. 35-65 years: 30% B. Youth (15-24 years) – 85%
B. Area (In Sq. Km.) H. 65+ years:5% C. Male (83%), Female (65%)
A. India: 3.2 Mn B. Religion
B. Lucknow: 2500 E. Income C. Hindu (75%), Muslim (15%), Others
C. Uttar Pradesh: 0.25 Mn A. BPL: 29% (10%)
D. Delhi: 1500 B. Low: 25% D. Car Penetration – 20/1000
E. Mumbai: 600 C. Lower Middle: 30% E. Internet Penetration – 400 Mn
F. Kolkata: 205 D. Upper Middle: 15% F. Mobile Phone Penetration – 650 Mn
G. Bangalore: 700 E. High: 1% G. Smart Phone Penetration – 300 Mn
58
 Useful Statistics to keep in mind while solving Guesstimates
Population and Area of Indian Cities Age Distribution in India* Important Indian Macro Data*

Population Area Age Spread Population Figures

(in Crore) (sq. km) (%)
Per capita Income of India (annual) INR 135000
Mumbai 2.0 603 0-14 25%
Population Growth Rate 1%
Delhi (NCR) 3.0 1484 15-24 20%
Unemployment Rate 5%
Kolkata 1.5 206 25-54 40%
CPI Inflation 5%
Bangalore 1.2 709 55-64 10%
Hyderabad 1.0 625 65 and above 5% Other useful statistics wrt. India*
Chennai 1.0 426 Average Life Expectancy: 69 years
Median Age: 27 years Figures
India 135.3 3.29 M
Digital penetration (mobile users) 50%
Income and Employment Distribution in India*
Urban and Rural Spread in India* Literacy rate 80%
Income band (per month per Population Average Size of households 5 members
household) (%)
Population Population
Distribution Density Percentage of area under forests 30%
(%) (persons per sq. km)
Low Income (<INR 10k pm) 50%
Percentage of area in waters 10%
Urban 30% ~800 Medium Income (b/w 10k and 100k pm) 40%

Rural 70% ~200 High Income (> INR 100k pm) 10%

Average population density of India: 328 persons per km2 Contribution Population
Employment Sectors
to GDP (%) Employed (%)
Agriculture 20% 50%
Manufacturing 30% 20%

Note: All star marked tables have rounded-off figures Service 50% 30%
 108

Appendix: Datasheet - India

India Demographics Age Spread Population % Income Group
Total Population 135 Crore
0-14 yrs 30%
Area (L x B) 3214 km x 2933 km Class Composition
Density 382 people/Sq.km 15-24 yrs 20%
BPL 20%
Lok Sabha Constituencies 543 25-34 yrs 15%
Life Expectancy 70 Years Lower-Middle 40%
35-44 yrs 10%
Sex Ratio (F:M) 933 : 1000
45-54 yrs 10% Middle 30%
Average Household Size 4.9
Urban : Rural (Population) 30 : 70 Upper 10%
55+ yrs 10%
Literacy Rate 74.04%
GDP (Nominal) $ 320,000 crore
Religion Hindu Muslim Christian Sikh Others
GDP Growth Rate (2018) 6.8%
Internet Penetration 56 Crore (40%) Population 80% 14% 2.5% 1.5% 2%

Area Distribution of India GDP Growth Rate

Sector Distribution of workforce
(as of 2019)
Cultivated 60%

Forest Cover 20% Agriculture 16% 42.4%

Built Up Area 10% Industries 25.2% 25.6%

Misc 10% Services 48.8% 32%

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 109

Appendix: Datasheet - Delhi NCR & DTU

DTU Demographics Demographics of Delhi Delhi Constituencies

Total Population 2 Crores Lok Sabha 7
Student Teacher Ratio 30:1
Literacy Rate 86%
Districts 11
Student Staff Ratio 20:1
Work Participation Rate 32%
Assembly 70
Area of DTU 165 Acres BPL Household 18%
GDP ₹7.80 lakh crore Wards 272
Perimeter of DTU 2.5 KM

Boys Hostels 8 Delhi Metro Area Distribution (1600 Sq. KM)

Number of lines 10 (6 major)
Girls Hostels 5 Residential 25%
Average Stations 30 per line
Enrollment in DTU 10,000 Number of Trains 310 Commercial 20%
No of Hostellers 2000 Coach length 20 m

Daily Ridership 30 Lakh Roads 20%

No. of Departmental Blocks 5 + DSM + 14 SPS
Average distance
2 KM Green Cover 25%
No. of Canteens 4 Between 2 stations

Average distance
Girls : Boys 1:5 100 m Misc 10%
between 2 pillars

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 Let’s solve one more!

Estimate the number of golf balls to be bought in India in one

year.
Guesstimate Demo
 20
25
GG#20
#1 Number
Cars
Schools
Crossing
in
ofDelhi
Schools
Delhi-Gurugram
in Delhi Toll Everyday Difficult
Easy

Preliminary Questions 1) Large Sized School: 14 Grades (Nursery-12th) x 10 x 40 ~ 5.5k Students

2) Medium Sized School: 12 Grades (1st-12th) x 3 x 30 ~ 1k Students
Should I consider both private and public schools? 3) Small Sized School: 10 Grades (1st-10th) x 2 x 20 ~ 400 Students
- Yes
Can we eliminate dummy schools that are used by Therefore, Average number of students in a school in Delhi:
private coaching centers?
- Yes ( 0.1 x 5,500 + 0.4 x 1,000 + 0.5 x 400 )
Should I include play schools? = 550 + 400 + 200 = 1150
- No, senior-secondary and primary schools only.
Now, Delhi’s population can be segregated on the basis of age demographics-
Assumptions
Total Population
- School going age would be 6 to 19 years 2 Cr
- Population of Delhi ~ 2 Cr
- There are 10% large sized schools (Private)
40% medium sized schools (Govt + Private ), and
50% small sized schools (Govt + MCD) 0-5 yrs 6-19 yrs 20-45 yrs 45+ yrs
10% 30 % = 60L 40% 20%

Overall Strategy Here, we consider 15% of

population to be without
(1) We can estimate the number of students in a school: Population with access to Population without access to access to education as they
Education (85%) = 52 L education (15%) might come under BPL or
Number of Grades x Avg Number of sections x
child labour.
Avg Students per class

(2) Calculate the total number of students in Delhi by Therefore # schools in Delhi = Total number of students in Delhi /
age segregation Average number of students in a school in Delhi

52,00,000 / 1,150 ~ 4500 Schools

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 20
26
GG#20
#2 Cars crossing
Crossing Delhi-Gurugram
Delhi-Gurugram Toll
Toll everyday
Everyday Difficult
Easy

Preliminary Questions # cars crossing toll = (Maximum # cars per hour) x (∑Traffic Density in a day) x
(# hours in the interval considered)
Should I consider taxis/cabs as well?
- Yes Maximum possible # cars crossing in 1 minute = 60/15 = 4 cars/minute/lane

Should I consider a weekday or weekend? = 240 cars/hour/lane = 240 x 8 = 1920 cars / hour
- Weekday
Creating a traffic density distribution over 24 hours of a weekday, using 2-hour long
May I consider number of unique cars or just number of cars intervals, based on general awareness and traffic trends.
crossing toll taking into account the fact that the same car may
cross the toll more than one time in a day? Traffic Density vs. Time
- No just consider the number of cars crossing the toll.

Assumptions

- It takes around 15 seconds for a car to pass through the toll.

- Considering the density of traffic from Delhi to Gurugram and
from Gurugram to Delhi to be same at a given point of time.
- There are 8 lanes in the toll.

Overall Strategy

Considering different traffic density at different hourly

intervals in a day (24 hours), we benchmark it with the
maximum possible cars crossing in an hour. Using the varied
density assumptions, we will find the number of cars crossing # cars = 1920 x [ 2 x (0.2 + 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.5 + 1 + 0.8 + 0.5 + 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.8 + 0.6 + 0.4) ]
in each interval to get the total.
= 1920 x 12 = 23,040 ~ 23,000 cars

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 27
G #3 Marlboro Reds sold in New Delhi daily Easy

Preliminary Questions
Cigarette Brands
Should I consider only packs or loose cigarettes as well? Market Share
- Consider both.

Overall Strategy
Others-Dunhill,
Gold Flake Marlboro Classic
First, we’ll find the population of New Delhi that smokes, followed by finding Benson etc.
35% 20% 25%
the market share of Marlboro and the share of Red among the product 20%
portfolio along with smoker-type classification to find the demand.

75% of population is of legal smoking age (only adults) = 1.5 Crore

Gold Gold Others: Clove mix,
Since Marlboro is a premium brand and as most of the BPL and Lower Middle Red
Original Advance fine touch etc.
Class rely on bidi or cheaper cigarettes, only the Upper Middle Class (40%) and 25% 20% 35% 20%
Upper Class (20%) meet the affordability requirement.

# people who can afford Therefore, Marlboro Red Smokers: 27 Lakh x 0.2 x 0.25 = 1.35 Lakh
Adults
Marlboro Cigarettes
= 1.5 crore x 0.6 Chainsmokers (20%): 2 packs a day = 1.35 Lakh x 0.2 x 40 = 10.8 Lakh cigs
= 90 lakhs
Regular Smokers (60%): 0.5 pack a day = 1.35 Lakh x 0.6 x 10 = 8.1 Lakh cigs
Males 50% Females 50%
Occasional Smokers (20%): 2 cigs a day = 1.35 x 0.2 x 2 = 54,000 cigs

Smoke Do not Smoke Do not

40% smoke 60% 20% smoke 80%
Daily Demand of Marlboro Reds in New Delhi
= 19.3 Lakh
So the average number of cigarette smokers in Delhi ~ 20 Lakh Cigarettes
= 90 lakh x (0.5 x 0.4 + 0.5 x 0.2) = 27 lakh

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 28
G #4 Tea sold in DTU today Easy

Preliminary Questions Tea Consumers

Which day should I assume it to be? The crowd in DTU can be broadly divided into three categories - Students, teaching staff and
-Consider it to be today (Monday). non-teaching staff which includes security guards, clerks, hostel attendants etc.

Which consumption unit should I proceed with? (Quantity, Value % people who consume tea in each of these categories varies.
etc.) For example: tea consumption among students (because of higher preference for coffee) is
-Estimate in terms of number of tea cups. lower compared to teaching and non-teaching staff.

Assumptions # Tea consumers = Σ(# People in each category) x (%age of people who consume tea)

- A standard 100 ml paper cup is considered.

Tea Consumers in DTU
Overall Strategy within each demographic

(1) Amount of tea sold in a day in DTU is equal to total # tea cups
consumed in one day.
Non-teaching
(2) If Y is the average time between two successive orders and Z Teachers
staff Students
is # tea orders per 100 orders, then total # tea orders at a (70%)
(80%)
particular food joint is (service hours in a day/Y) x Z.

Tea sold in a day = # people who consume tea in DTU

x Average #tea cups consumed by an individual.
Day Scholars Hostelers
Avg. # of tea cups consumed by an individual = (30%) (60%)
Σ(i cups) x (%age of people consuming i cups)
20% have tea at home.

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 29
G #4 Tea sold in DTU today Easy

For finding out the # people in each demographic: Tea consumption per individual Consumption
Capacity
# students in DTU = 10,000 Since tea consumption capacity varies from
Day-Scholars : Hostellers = 80:20 person to person it can be classified as:

Students Teacher ratio ~ 30:1 MechC and Mic-Mac are the most preferred
# teachers = 10000/30 = ~330 tea points in the college which sell tea in Low Medium High Very high
two different sizes of cups. (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%)
Non teaching staff to student ratio ~ 20:1
# Non teaching staff = 10000/20 = 500 - half sized cup (50ml)
- standard cup (100ml) 0.5 1 2 3
The tea consumption among hostlers is higher than day
scholars because they spend more time in the campus.
cup cup cups cups

Whereas, the hostel mess, Nescafe and

Maggi Baba have a standard size cup only. Avg. # of tea cups consumed by an individual =
Therefore, # Tea Consumers = Thus, we find out the average consumption Σ(i cups) x (%age of people consuming i cups)
(330 x 0.7) + (500 x 0.8) + (8000 x 0.3 x 0.8) + per individual on campus. where i is # tea cups
(2000 x 0.6)
= (0.5 x 0.4) + (1 x 0.3) + (2 x 0.2) + (3 x 0.1) = 1.2 cups
= 231 + 400 + 1920 + 1200 ~3750

Tea sold in a day = # people who consume tea in DTU x Average # tea cups
consumed by an individual.

= 3750 x 1.2
= 4500 cups of tea in a day

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 30
G #5 Crocin Tablets sold in Delhi in one day Easy

Preliminary Questions Chemist shops

Which day should I consider? Delhi has 7 Parliament constituencies, 70 legislative constituencies and 235 wards.
- Today, 20 October. Assuming equal population distribution across all the wards, each ward has ~85,000 people.

Shall I include all the types of crocin tablets:: Advance, Fast Relief Based on experience, there are roughly 30 chemist shops in a ward.
and the basic 650 mg crocin tablet Thus the total number of chemists in Delhi = 30 x 272 = 8160 ~8000
- No. Just consider the basic 650 mg crocin tablet.
Now, each shop on average sells around 10 strips a day.
Which unit do you prefer - tablets or crocin strip packings
consisting of 10 tablets each? However, given that this is October, due to sudden weather changes, the probability of
- Give the answer in the no. of strips. catching a cold/fever or falling ill is slightly higher than rest of the year.
Hence the sale of crocin during these months is slightly more than average. So considering
Assumptions each chemist shop sells 12 strips a day in October.

- Among the other paracetamol brands present such as Calphol, Thus, # paracetamol strips sold by Chemists = 8000 x 12 = 96,000
Saridon etc. 75% of people prefer Crocin tablets.
- Crocin is primarily used for treating fevers, headaches. Hospitals

Population of Delhi = 2 crore Assuming there is 1 bed for per 2000 people in Delhi
Overall Strategy Crocin # beds = 2 crore/2000 = 10000 beds
tablets
(1) Crocin is primarily sold at Assuming 40 beds per hospitals, the # hospitals in Delhi = 10000/40 = 250
chemist shops and hospitals.
Since people usually visit hospitals for serious ailments and paracetamol is easily available at
(2) Considering only a single Chemist chemists, in a given day, a hospital sells ~100 paracetamol strip packings.
strength of medicine of crocin Hospitals
shops
for each patient # paracetamol strips sold by Hospitals = 250 x 100 = 25,000

Thus, with 75% market share, # Crocin strips sold in Delhi in one day =
(96,000 + 25,000) x 0.75 = 93,000 strips

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 31
G #6 Emojis sent in India each day Moderate

Preliminary Questions
Population Demographic
Shall I consider only smartphones for the use of (130 Crores) Segregation of the
emojis? 50 Cr Users
-Yes
Can I consider only the emojis that are sent as
messages? Young Senior
Teenagers Adults
-Yes Adults Citizens
BPL LMC MC UC 20% - 40% -
Assumptions 30% - 10% -
(20%) (40%) (30%) (10%) 10 Cr
15 Cr
20 Cr
5 Cr
- Whatsapp, Messenger and Instagram are the major
social media platforms with daily usage of emojis.
- Only the Middle and Upper Class has access to 200 texts 150 texts 100 texts 30 texts
Market Size of Smartphone Users
smartphones. per day per day per day per day
- The emoji usage varies across different
Considering only the Upper (10%) and Middle class
demographics of age groups in India
(30%) people have access to smartphones.

Therefore, 130 Crore x 0.4 = 52 Crore. 50 Emojis 25 Emojis 20 Emojis Negligible

per day per day per day Emojis
Overall Strategy
Out of these, 2 Crores refrain from any kind of Social
(1) Segmenting the demographics by age - Media Usage. Therefore we get 50 Crore potential
Teenagers, Young Adults, Adults & Senior Citizens users with access to social media messaging
Thus, number of emojis sent in a
to segregate their social media and emoji usage. platforms.
day in India =
(2) The total Number of emojis used in the country Now, we find the average number of emojis sent by
(10 x 50) + (15 x 25) + (20 x 20) Cr
in a day= Number of social media users x Average different age groups on a daily basis by estimating
number of emojis sent by a user on messages the number of texts sent per day on any of the social
= 1275 Crore
daily media platforms.

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 32
G #7 Annual Revenue of Cinepolis, Rohini Moderate

Preliminary Questions Footfall Weekdays Weekends

Shall I consider the revenue from ticket sales only or other Considering the difference in Seating Capacity 300 300
streams of revenue too? occupancy on weekday vs weekend,
-Consider substantial revenue streams. % Occupancy 60% 75%
Average daily footfall per show
Assumptions = (180 x 4 + 225 x 3)/7 = 200/Show Average Footfall 180 225

- Given the difference in ticket price between weekday and

weekend, an average price is assumed. Revenue/Day
- There are 4 cinema screens. (Revenue per show) x (Number of shows)
- Footfall is averaged on a daily basis. x (No. Of screens)
- Weekend includes Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Overall Strategy Ticket sales Food & Beverages Parking Advertising

(1) The substantial revenue streams are chosen to be : Ticket (Average (Average footfall/show) (Average It is assumed to be 10%
sales, revenue from parking, food and beverages and footfall/Show) x x (No. of shows) x (% of footfall/Show) x (No. of of the total revenue
(Average price/Show) x people buying edibles) x shows) x (% of people
advertising.
(No. Of shows/day) (Price of one coke + one using parking) x (Price
medium popcorn) of 1 parking ticket)
(2) Advertising revenue primarily comes from billboards and
digital ads between the movies. It is assumed to be 10% of the
(200 x 300 x 4) 200 x 4 x 0.3 x 200 200*4*0.5*30 0.1 x Revenue
total revenue.
= ₹ 2,40,000 = ₹ 48,000 = ₹ 12,000 = ₹ 30,000
(3) Average Footfall/Show =
[(Capacity) x (% Occupancy on weekdays) x 4 +
Total Revenue/Day/Screen = 3,00,000 + 30,000 = ₹ 3,30,000
(Capacity) x ( % Occupancy on weekends) x 3]/7
Total Revenue/Day = 3,30,000 x 4 = ₹ 13,20,000
Annual Revenue = 13,20,000 x 365 = ₹ 48,18,00,000

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 G #8 Market Size of Chewing Gums in India DONE 33
Moderate

Preliminary Questions

Which market sizing unit should I consider? (Quantity, Value etc.)

Chewing Gums
- Estimate in terms of value.

Which kind of chewing gum are we considering, the sweet gums or

the nicotine gums or both? Sweet Nicotine
- Consider only sweet chewing gums. Chewing Gums Chewing Gums

Should I consider the sales of chewing gums in packets or loose?

- No just consider the sales of loose chewing Gums.
Heavy Occasional Non
Assumption Users Users Users

- Infants & toddlers, senior citizens are considered to be non

consumers.
- And the consumption purposes are identified for a person on a The overall market for chewing gums can be broadly divided into sweet gums and nicotine-based
weekly basis. gums used by people who are quitting smoking. The general chewing gum consuming population
- Population of India is 140 Cr. is segmented based on their consumption rate. Since this is a fairly cheap commodity, the
affordability doesn’t come into the picture.

It is more reasonable to estimate the weekly consumption value rather than daily, depending on
Overall Strategy
the consumer's behavior over a week.
Since the chewing gum consumption pattern varies with age
Total number of Chewing Gums consumed in a week = ( # heavy consumers X # units
groups and according to the purpose, we’ll first do an age
consumed in a week) + (# occasional consumers X # units consumed in a week )
segmentation of the demographic and then a parallel
consumption segmentation into heavy, occasional and non
The weekly figure can then be used to find the annual market size.
users.

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

G #8 Market Size of Chewing Gums in India DONE 34
Moderate

Heavy
Chewing Gum Consumers
Consumers (2 Crore)

Dental Hygiene
Sportspersons Smokers
6-17 18-40 41-60 Conscious People
(20%) (50%)
(30%)

% of 20% 50% 20%

population (28 crore) (70 crore) (28 crore) 0.4 crore 1 crore 0.6 crore

% of chewing 50% 30% 20% # units

(14 crore) (21 crore) (5.6 crore) consumed/week 5 15 10
gum consumers

Occasional: 50% Occasional: 30% Occasional: 50% Thus average # chewing gums consumed by heavy users on weekly
(7 crore) (6.3 crore) (2.8 crore) basis = 12 Units
Assuming average # chewing gums consumed by an occasional user
Heavy User: 20% Heavy User: 10% Heavy User: 10% on weekly basis to be 3 Units
(1.4 Crore) (0.63 Crore) (0.28 Crore)
Total # units consumed by heavy users annually
= (0.4x5 + 1x15 + 0.6x10) x 52 weeks ~ 1200 Crore
Total # Occasional consumers of chewing gum = ~ 16 Crore
Total # Heavy consumers of Chewing Gum = ~2 Crore Total # chewing gums consumed by occasional users annually
= 16 crore x 3 units x 52 weeks ~ 2500 Crore
To estimate the number of chewing gums consumed by heavy users weekly, we can
divide the users into broad categories of Sportsperson, Drinker, Smoker, and Dental Annual market size of sweet chewing gums in India
hygiene-conscious people and then assess their daily consumption levels. (in units) = 3700 Crore

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 20
35
GG#20
#9 Number
Cabs in Delhi
of Cabs in Delhi Moderate
Difficult

Preliminary Questions
Considering the people who travel daily to college, office or for other work would be
Shall I include app based taxi services like Ola and Uber? mostly people within the age bracket of 15-60 i.e. about 60% of the total population.
- Yes.
# people who travel daily = 0.6 x 2 crore = 1.2 crore
Is it fair to assume that every person using cabs, uses them for
both sides of their journey? Out of these people, let’s find out the people who prefer cabs as their mode of
- Yes, go ahead. commute, using income segmentation and their proclivity to avail cabs.

Assumptions Taking different forms of transportation as: Public Transport (Buses + Metros +
Gramin Seva), Autos + Rickshaws, Personal Vehicles and Cabs. Most middle class
- A taxi driver works for 12 hours a day (excluding breaks for working people would prefer using the buses or metro over an auto or cab.
meals) Whereas, the upper class would prefer travelling in their personal vehicles when
- The traveling populace is even across the income demographic available and hailing a cab otherwise.
- Average no. of passengers in a taxi = 2

Commute Options BPL LMC UMC UC

Overall Strategy

(1) First we find the population that commutes daily and then Public Transport 100% 75% 40% 10%
the segments that can afford to and prefer to travel in cabs
among the other means.
Autos/Rickshaws - 25% 10% -
(2) Then we find the total trips completed by a driver daily to
find the number of cabs in Delhi.
Personal Vehicles - - 25% 40%
# cabs = total # trips completed /avg # trips by each driver
Cabs - - 25% 50%

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 20
36
GG#20
#9 Number
Cabs in Delhi
of Cabs in Delhi Moderate
Difficult

Number of trips
Traveling
Populace Assuming that the average no. of passengers per trip = 2
(120 lakh) And each person uses cabs to commute both to and fro in their journey.

Total # trips = # people using taxis / avg # passengers in a taxi = (15/2) x 2 = 15 lakh
BPL LMC MC UC
(20%) (40%) (30%) (10%) Building further on our assumption that a taxi driver works for 12 hours a day and the
average duration of a trip is 40 mins. Reasonably, most cab drivers don’t get their next trips
instantaneously and there is delay involved in finding a customer. Let the time spent
between two consecutive trips be of 20 mins.
Cab Cab Cab Cab
users users users users
So on an average a cab driver spends 40 + 20 = 60 mins = 1 hour to complete one entire
(0%) (0%) (25%) (50%)
trip. (Here a trip is defined as the time between finding two customers.)

Thus, # trips completed in a day = total working time/time taken to complete 1 trip
120 x 0.3 x 0.25 120 x 0.1 x 0.5 = 12 hours/1 hour = 12 trips/day
= 9 lakh = 6 lakh

Total # people availing cabs daily = 15 lakhs # cabs = total # trips completed daily/avg # trips by each driver
= 15 lakh/12
~ 125,000 cabs

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 37
G #10 Daily Revenue of the Metro Walk McDonald’s Outlet Moderate

Preliminary Questions
We assume that the average order value for one
Which day should I assume it to be? person = ₹ 80 (for 30% of the population) and ₹ 150 Daily revenue from dine-in
-Consider it to be a weekday. (for 50% of the population) and ₹ 250 (for 20% of the = (# hours) x (# people per hour) x (avg order value)
population)
Shall I include sales from takeaways as well? = (# hours) x ((30) x (avg % occupancy) x (3)) x (150)
-No, just dine-in and delivery. That is an average of
0.3 x 80 + 0.5 x 150 + 0.2 x 250 = ₹ 149 = (5 x (0.25) + 2 x (0.5) + 2 x (0.75) + 4 x (1)) x 13500
Assumptions ~ ₹ 150 per person per sitting = ₹ 1,04,625 / day ~ ₹ 1 Lakh/day

- The outlet has 30 seats. Since the occupancy of the outlet varies throughout We have assumed that for every 5 dine in orders, 1
- Timings are from 10 AM to 11 PM the day, considering this distribution of the customer delivery takes place. Thus, the revenue from delivery
- Every person eats at McDonalds for 20 minutes. traffic of people at McDonald’s on an hourly basis, the is 20% of the revenue from dine-in.
- Thus, there are 3 (60/20 min) different people average number of people dining-in at a given hour
occupying a seat every hour at max. can be found.

Total revenue of the outlet

Overall Strategy = Revenue from dine in
+ Revenue from delivery
(1) Average order value per person varies.
= 1.2 x 1 Lakh
(2) The number of people eating at the outlet = ₹ 1.2 Lakh /day
varies across different hours.

(3) Revenue from Deliveries is ~20% of Dine-In

Revenue.

(4) Daily revenue = (# hours) x (# people per

hour) x (average order value)

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 38
G #11 Sales of the Indian Express in Delhi Moderate

Preliminary Questions
Subscriptions By Households
Should I consider the sales on a weekday or weekend? The Indian Express Sales
- Weekday
Since the Indian Express is an English newspaper
with multiple competitors in the print media
Should I consider the sales of digital subscription too?
industry, we do a demographic segmentation of
- No just consider the sales of physical copies. Subscription Non-Subscription the households. This will allow us to understand
Based Based the literacy status, spending ability and the
Assumptions (67%) (33%) propensity to spend on an English newspaper.
- Average number of people in a family = 4
- Household market share of Indian Express = 10% # people in an average family = 4
- # copies subscribed by each family = 1 # families = 2 Crore/4 = 50 lakh
- Average # people per institution = 120 Household Institutional
- Institutional market share of Indian Express = 50%
- # copies subscribed per institution = 4

Families in Delhi

Overall Strategy

Only two sources of physical sales are considered:

a) Subscription based and b) Non subscription based BPL LMC UMC UC
(20%) (40%) (30%) (10%)
Subscription Based Sales = 2 x Non-Subscription Based
Total Sales = 1.5 x (Subscription Based Sales)
30% of families 80% of families 100% of families
No subscription
The subscription based sales are further divided into with subscription with subscription with subscription
of English
household and institutional. of English of English of English
newspapers
Newspapers Newspapers Newspapers

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G #11 Sales of the Indian Express in Delhi Moderate

Total # families with subscription of English newspapers =

Population working in institutions = 2 Crore x 0.6 = 1.2 Crore
50 lakh x [ (0.2 x 0) + (0.4 x 0.3) + (0.3 x 0.8) + (0.1 x 1) ]
= 50 x 0.46 = 23 lakh
# institutions = 1.2 Crore/120 = 1,00,000
# families with subscription of Indian Express
Assuming 80% of institutions have subscription of English newspapers
= 23 lakh x 0.1 = 2.3 lakh families
# institutions subscribed to English newspapers = 1,00,000 x 0.8 = 80,000
Total Household Sales =
Institutions with subscription of Indian Express = 80,000 x 0.5 = 40,000
(# households with Indian Express subscription) x
( Average # copies sold per household)

Daily household sales = 1 x 2,30,000 = 2,30,000

Total Institutional Sales =
(# institutions with Indian Express Subscription) x
(average # copies sold per institution)
Subscriptions By Institutions
= 40,000 x 4 = 1,60,000

Total Population Total Subscription-Based Sales = 2,30,000 + 1,60,000 = 3,90,000 = 4,00,000

(2 Cr)

Total Sales = Subscription Based Sales + Non-Subscription Based Sales

Working in Not working in = Subscription Based Sales/0.67 = 1.5 x (Subscription Based Sales)
institutions institutions = 1.5 * 4,00,000 = 6,00,000
(60%) (40%)

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

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G #12 Crows in Delhi Moderate

Preliminary Questions
Number of crows in Delhi can be given by =
Area Low Forest Medium High Forest
Can I consider that the number of crows will be equal Type Area Forest Area Area
Area of forest cover x (Trees/Area) x
during the day and night?
(Nests / Tree) x (Crows / Nest)
- Yes
Can I assume that all the crows rest on trees and not
Here, all the numerator values can be Area 1050 Sq, KM 300 Sq. KM 150 Sq. KM
on buildings and residential complexes at night?
approximated based on the type of forest cover
- Yes
area they belong to.
Assumptions
Trees/
1000 2000 5000
Therefore, higher forest cover has (Sq.km)
- Area of Delhi = 1500 sq km
a positive correlation with the
- Estimated forest cover and subsequently, the trees
number of Nests/
in Delhi 0.1 0.15 0.20
Tree
- number of trees.
- nests per tree Crows/
4 4 4
Overall Strategy - crows per tree. Nest
- overall crows.
(1) The number of crows in Delhi at any particular # crows 4,20,000 3,60,000 6,00,000
time are equal to the number of crows resting in
Area of Delhi
the trees at night assuming that the outflow and
(1500 Sq. KM)
inflow of crows in the city is same.
Number of crows in Delhi =
(2) The number of crows can be calculated by
estimating the number of trees by taking into
High Medium forest Low Sum of number of crows in low,
account the overall forest cover and other factors
forest cover cover forest cover medium and high forest areas
like number of trees, nests and number of crows
per nest (10%) (20%) (70%)
= 150 Sq. KM = 300 Sq. KM = 1050 Sq. KM = 13,80,000 Crows

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

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G #13
#20 Number
Books in of
DTUBooks in DTU Difficult

Preliminary Questions DTU Library

Shall I include DSM and USME as well? No. of Books in DTU Library =
- No, Just consider books in DTU Main Campus. # Books in one book wall x # Book walls in a department x # Departments

Should I consider books only in DTU Library or also include # books in one shelf = # books in a row x # rows in a book shelf
books in residential and faculty rooms too? = 15 x 5= 45 books
- Include all the books in the campus at this point of time.
# books in a book wall = 8 x 45 = 600 books DTU Library
Do I also include magazines and photocopied books?
- No, Just printed books
Smaller Larger
Assumptions Departments Departments
DTU library is divided into different
- DTU Library has 2 floors with identical arrangement of departments as shown, with book walls in Bookwalls Bookwalls
bookshelves with each shelf stacked along the other to both the first floor and the book bank. 1st Floor: 4 1st Floor: 6
form a book wall. The miscellaneous section consists of 2nd Floor: 2 2nd Floor: 3
- Each Book Wall has 8 bookshelves in a row and each novels and competitive exam preparation
bookshelf has 5 rows. books. Computer & IT Biotechnology
- Each row in a bookshelf has 15 books on an average.
Total # Book walls in Library =
9 x 5 + 6 x 5 = 75 book walls Civil Chemistry
Overall Strategy
Total # Books in DTU Library Electrical &
Total books in campus on a regular working day = Mathematics
= # books in book wall x # book walls Electronics
= 600 x 75 = 45,000 books
Books in DTU Library + Books in Residential Areas + Physics
Mechanical
Books in Faculty Rooms + Books carried by Day Scholars
+ Bookstore
Management Miscellaneous

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G #13
#20 Number
Books in of
DTUBooks in DTU Difficult

Total # of Books Faculty Rooms

There are 30 and 20 faculty rooms in bigger and smaller departments respectively
(including humanities)
# Faculty Rooms = (5 x 30) + (5 x 20) = 250
DTU Faculty
Residence Day-Scholar Bookstore
Library Room Assuming that each faculty room has 2 bookshelves = 2 x 30 = 60

Total # books in Faculty Rooms = 60 x 120 = 7200 books

Student Faculty Day Scholars

Hostels Residences
Total # day scholars = Total # students in DTU - Hostellers
Residential Areas = 10,000 - 2100 = ~8000 students
Student Hostels:
There are 6 Girls Hostels with an occupancy of 60 girls on an Assuming that each day scholar carries 0.5 books on an average, since books aren’t
average and 9 Boys Hostel with average occupancy of 150 boys. utilised much in classrooms, and an attendance of 70% on an average day.

- # students in Hostels = 6 x 60 + 9 x 200 = 2160 ~ 2100 Total # books carried by Day Scholars = 0.7 x 0.5 x 8000 = 2800 books
- Assuming that each student in hostel has 10 books including both
academic and non-academic Campus Bookstore
- Total # books in student hostels = 21000 books
# Bookshelves in the store= 15
Faculty Residences: Books in each bookshelf = 50
There are 26 faculty flats in a block and there 8 blocks Total # books in bookstore= 15 x 45= 750 books
Therefore, Total # faculty flats = 8 x 26 = 208 ~ 210
Assuming one faculty lives in a single flat and each faculty has an No. of books in DTU on a regular day =
average 20 books in their homes. = 45000 + 21000 + 4200 + 7200 + 2800 + 750
- Total # books in faculty residences = 210 x 20 = 4200 books ~ 81000 books

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G #14 Money Withdrawn from ATMs in Delhi in a day Difficult

Preliminary Questions
Average time to withdraw money from an
ATM density High Medium Low ATM = 2 minutes
Should I assume that all ATMs are open for 24 hours?
-Yes
Percentage 30% 50% 20% Maximum possible withdrawals in 1 hour =
Should I assume that all cards have the same daily 60/2 = 30 withdrawals.
withdrawal limit? # ATMs/sq. km. 8 4 1
- Yes, assume that the limit is ₹ 10,000 Average occupancy of the ATMs
Considering the ATM Density in various areas in Time Occupancy Withdrawals
Assumptions New Delhi,
No. of ATMs in Delhi = 1500 x (0.3 x 8 + 0.5 x 4 + 0.2 x 12 am - 6 am 10% 18
- Delhi’s area ~ 1500 sq. km (approx) 1) = 6900 ~ 7000
6 am - 10 am 20% 24
- Minimum denomination withdrawn = ₹ 500
- People withdraw in multiples of 500 only. 10 am - 5 pm 50% 105

5 pm - 9 pm 60% 72
% of people 5 10 40 30 15
9 pm - 12 am 30% 27

Overall Strategy Amount

10,000 5,000 2,000 1,000 500 Total Withdrawals in a Day = 246 ~250
withdrawn
(1) Total no. of ATMs can be calculated as a
function of the ATM density in different areas
Most people withdraw from an ATM in small amounts, Therefore, total amount withdrawn daily
(2) Total amount withdrawn in one day = only when they run out of cash or require immediate
(# of ATMs) x (# of daily withdrawals) x money for transactions or payments. = (# of ATMs) x (# of daily withdrawals) x
(average amount withdrawn) (average amount withdrawn)
Average amount withdrawn = 0.05 x 10000 + 0.1 x 5000
+ 0.4 x 2000 + 0.3 x 1000 + 0.15 x 100 = 7000 x 250 x 2200
= ₹ 2175 ~ ₹ 2200 = 385 Crores

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

G #15
#20 Daily Global Revenue of Starbucks DONE 20
44
Difficult

Preliminary Questions Average revenue of a Starbucks outlet in USA

Do you mean Global Revenue for any given day? The revenue stream is divided into two types- Takeaway and In-Store Orders
-Yes, Calculate global revenue for starbucks for today.
Takeaway Orders
Should I also include revenue generated by eatables sold along Order density can be segmented as - Peak (100%), Medium (50%) and Low (25%).
coffee too? Peak time for takeaways are in the morning and evening as the working population grab coffee
-Yes, consider eatables and coffee both for your analysis while commuting. Density is medium around lunch and low for the rest of the day.

Should I consider special locations such as airports and offices? During Peak Time, store works at maximum efficiency;
- We’re looking for an overall ballpark figure. 3 coffees are prepared in 5 Minutes during peak time.
Therefore, 36 Coffees/hour.
Assumptions
Coffees sold in Medium Time - 18/hour
- Since Starbucks is US-based, we consider that it generates 50% of Coffees sold in Low Time - 9/hour
its global revenue from its home country.
- Operating Hours are 6 AM to 10 PM.
Average Take-Away Orders
- Average time to make a regular starbucks coffee is 5 minutes
- At maximum efficiency, 3 orders can be processed simultaneously
in a normal store
- Average price of a normal coffee in Starbucks is $3
- For takeaways, people only take coffee.

Overall Strategy

Revenue Generated in USA =

Average revenue of a store x # Stores in USA

Global Revenue of Starbucks = 2 x Revenue generated in USA

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G #15
#20 Daily Global Revenue of Starbucks Difficult

Total Takeaway Orders in a day on average = Average In-Store Orders

36 x 5 + 18 x 2 + 9 x 10 = 306 Coffee Orders/Day

Revenue Generated from Takeaways

= No. of orders in a day x Average price of a takeaway order
= 306 * 3 ~ 900$

In-Store Orders

For these, the peak time is usually after noon, when most
people take breaks from their work and after office timings.

Total In-Store Orders in a day in a normal store

= 36 x 6 + 18 x 5 + 9 x 5 ~ 350 Orders/Day

Average In-Store Order Cost = $5 (including eatables) # Starbucks stores in the USA

Revenue Generated from In-Store Orders Population of the United States = 300M = 30 Crores
= No. of orders in a day x Average price of an in-store order Assuming that each Starbucks location caters to 2000 people in that locality,
= 350 x 5 = ~ $1700
Total # starbucks stores in USA = 30 crores/2000 = 15,000 Stores

US Revenue of Starbucks = Total Number of stores x Average Store Revenue

Total Revenue generated by an average store in a day = 15,000 x $2600 ~ 40,000,000$
= $900 + $1700 = $2600/day

Global Daily Revenue = 2 x US Revenue = $80,000,000

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G #16 The Market Size of ACs in Delhi Difficult

Preliminary Questions
Market size in tons = Demand to replace old ACs + Demand due to growth in market size
Shall I include both window and split air conditioners? = (# ACs in tons) / (Avg. life of an AC) + (# ACs in tons) x (Growth rate)
-Yes.
Avg. Replacement Demand = Current # Products/ Avg. Life cycle of product
Which market sizing unit should I proceed with? (Quantity, Value
etc.) Assuming the average life of an AC to be 10 years, and taking the growth rate as 10%. We have to
-Estimate in terms of tonnage. calculate the # ACs in Delhi presently, based on our segmentation.

Air conditioning is used for residential and commercial purposes.

Commercial areas would include office space, mall, hospital,
restaurants, school, buses etc. Shall all these be included? Residential Segment
-Calculate only for residential and office buildings.
#ACs in tons = (# Families who can afford ACs) x (Avg tons of ACs per family)
Assumptions
An AC ranges from ₹ 20,000 to 40,000 depending on the tons.
- Average life of an AC = 10 years To determine the affordability, we do an income-based segmentation as a flow diagram.
- Market growth rate = 10%
Considering that BPL and Lower Middle Class can’t afford due to their income range, we focus on
the Middle Class and the Upper Class. For the MC, most of the households will have a 1 ton AC and
Overall Strategy some would have a 2 ton AC.

(1) The overall market size in tonnage can be calculated with the However, for the UC segment, there would be some families which can even afford up to 3ACs, two
demand due to market growth and replacement demand. 1 ton ACs for each bedroom and a 2 ton AC for the living room.

(2) Income segmentation for residential household demand. # Tons in residential segment =
(# Families who can afford ACs) x (Avg tons of ACs per family) 50 Lakh x [(0.3 x 0.4 x 1) + (0.3 x 0.1 x 2) + (0.1 x 0.7 x 2) + (0.1 x 0.3 x 4)]

(3) For office buildings, air conditioning per unit area approach. = 600,000 + 300,000 + 700,000 + 600,000 = 22 Lakh tons.
(Total office area) x (Tons required per unit area)

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G #16 The Market Size of ACs in Delhi Difficult

Families Assuming an equal spread of the population from 1-80 years, roughly 50% of the population will lie
50 Lakh in the 22-60 bracket. This is the total working-age population (1 Cr).

Assuming that all men and nearly half the women would be working.
Therefore, no. of white-collar employees = 20 L men + 10 L women = 30 Lakh people.
BPL LMC MC UC
(20%) (40%) (30%) (10%) An office space would consist of cubicle area, and common areas such as receptions, washrooms,
lunch areas. Dividing the total area of an office with the total number of employees, area per person
would roughly be the same as a ‘bedroom’ of 2 people, typically having an area of 200 sq. ft.

1 ton 2 ton 2 ton 4 ton Hence each employee is equivalent to 100 sq. ft. area in an office.
(40%) (10%) (70%) (30%) Also we will require a 1 ton AC to cool a room of 200 sq. ft.

Hence, # ACs in tons = (# People working in air-conditioned offices) x

Office Space Segment (Office area per person) x (Tons required per unit area)

For the Office Space Segment, since offices typically have = (3MN) x (100 sq. ft.) x (1 ton / 200 sq. ft.) = 15 Lakh tons
centralized ACs and the tonnage of the Central AC decides
how much area can be cooled. Combining both the segments, we get 37 Lakh tons.

# ACs in tons = (Total office area) x (Tons required per unit

area)
Market Size in tons = (# ACs in tons) / (Avg. life of an AC) +
Typically, only white-collar employees work in air conditioned (# ACs in tons) x (Growth rate)
office spaces. So, neglecting exceptions, these would belong
to MC and UC (40% of population) in the age group of 22-60. = (37 Lakh tons) / (10 year) + (37 Lakh tons) x (10% per year)
= 740,000 tons / year

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G #17
#20 Profit made
Annual Profit
byofSBI
SBIBranch
BranchinatDTU
DTU Difficult

Preliminary Questions Revenue from Savings Account (SBI-DTU)

Should I Consider all sources of Profits to a Bank? Hostellers

-No, consider only profits generated from saving accounts. Given the 80:20 split between day-scholars:hostellers, there are 2000 hostellers. Most students
open a new account only after starting their graduation degree. However, as most of these
Is bank accessible only to DTU fraternity or outside public too? are students outside Delhi, some might already have bank accounts in their hometowns or in
-Consider both. other banks. Considering 40% of them have accounts in SBI DTU,
Assumptions Student account holders = 0.4 x 2000 = 800

# students in DTU = 10,000 Faculty

Day-Scholars : Hostellers = 80:20 Consider that 75% of the faculty opt for on-campus accommodation and 80% of them have a
Students Teacher ratio ~ 30:1 bank account here because of the convenience of proximity and ease of administration.
# teachers = 10000/30 = ~330 Faculty account holders = 0.75 x 0.8 x 330 = ~200
Non teaching staff to student ratio ~ 20:1
# Non teaching staff = 10000/20 = 500 Staff
- All non-teaching staff have a bank account. For the non-teaching staff, it is preferable to have an account in a public sector bank and at
- There are ~3 SBI banks in a ward. the proximity of their workplace. Considering 90% of them have an account here,
- Bank revenue sources are Staff account holders = 0.9 x 500 = 450

Day-scholars
Overall Strategy Most day-scholars would prefer to open their account near their homes only. So considering
only 5% of them have an account here.
(1) The total money withdrawn is a function of the amount of Day Scholar Account Holders = 0.05 x 8000 = 400
money withdrawn by each family as a whole.
Locals
(2) The families have been divided on the basis of money Delhi has 272 municipal wards with a population of 2 Crore. Assuming nearly equal distribution
withdrawn by families in different income brackets. across all the wards, each ward has an population of approximately 85,000. Out of these, 70%
would be eligible to have a bank account (adults).
Annual Profit = Interest on loan - Interest on saving - Assuming that there are 3 SBI banks in a ward, and with the market share of 60% each bank
Operational Expense caters to (0.7 x 0.6 x 85000)/3 = 11,900 people locally ~ 12,000 people locally

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G #17
#20 Profit made
Annual Profit
byofSBI
SBIBranch
BranchinatDTU
DTU Difficult

Considering,
Customers of SBI - DTU
- CRR = 4% (Nil Interest)
- Repo rate = 6.5
- Reverse Repo Rate = 6.0
- Interest rate on saving accounts = 4%
Staff Hostellers Faculty Day-Scholar Locals - Average interest on loan = 15%
- Asset Quality Ratio

Quality asset = 0.96 x 25,76,00,000 = ~ 24.72 crores = 25 Cr

Total saving accounts in SBI-DTU
= 800 + 200 + 450 + 400 + 12000 = ~14000
Suppose only 80% of it is lent as loan (0.8 x 25 = 20 Cr),
with an average rate of interest as 15%.
Lower Upper Revenue from loans = 0.15 x 25 = 3.75 Cr
Account Balance Lower Class Upper Class Revenue from reverse repo = 0.06 x (25-20) = 0.3 Cr
Middle Class Middle Class
Cost incurred on savings account interests = 0.04 x 25 = 1 Cr
Percentage of people 20% 40% 30% 10% Let us assume the annual operational expense = 70 Lakh = 0.7 Cr

No. of people 2800 5600 4200 1400 Annual Profit = Interest on loan - Interest on saving - Operational Expense
= 3.75- 1 - 0.7 crores
Avg. savings account = 2.05 Cr = ₹ 2 Cr (per annum)
2,000 10,000 30,000 50,000
balance

Total 56,00,000 5,60,00,000 12,60,00,000 7,00,00,000

Thus, the total profit made by the SBI Branch at DTU in one year
= ₹ 2 Cr
Total sum of all savings accounts balance =
₹ 25,76,00,000

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

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G #18 Traffic Lights in Delhi Difficult

Preliminary Questions

May I assume the roads are straight and rectangular with no

The area of Delhi can be broadly divided infrastructurally into the following:
curves?
1. Residential (40%)
-Yes.
2. Commercial (40%)
3. Industrial (10%)
Should I consider just Delhi or the entire NCT region?
4. Outskirts (10%)
-Just Delhi is fine.
We shall segment the area of Delhi that is built up into the area occupied by
Assumptions
the roads with traffic lights on them.
- Area of Delhi is taken as 1500 km².
- Motorable area of Delhi that is two-thirds, which is 1000 km².

Residential Commercial Industrial Outskirts

Overall Strategy
Percentage of area of Delhi 40% 40% 10% 10%
(1) The number of traffic lights on a stretch of road depends
on the type of road and its vicinity.
Percentage of area for 1% 2% 4% 4%
(2) After segmenting the area of Delhi on the basis of roads with traffic lights
infrastructure, we can find the total area of roads.
Average distance between 1 km 1 km 2 km 2 km
(3) Using the average width of the roads, we can find the lights
cumulative length of roads and subsequently, using the
average distance between two consecutive traffic lights, the
total number can be found. Average Width of Roads 10m 16m 20m 25m

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G #18 Traffic Lights in Delhi Difficult

Area of Delhi After computing the areas of roads with traffic lights on them for each infrastructural
with motorable segment, the length of the roads can be found from the area computed using the
road assumed width for each road.
1000 km²
Total length of roads = Area of roads/Average width

Therefore, the length for each of the following classification will be:
1. Residential = 400 km 2. Commercial = 500 km
Residential Industrial Outskirts 3. Industrial = 400 km 4. Outskirts: 320 km
Commercial
400 km² 400 km² 200 km² 100 km²
Now, we divide the distance of roads by the average distance between consecutive
traffic lights, to find the number of traffic junctions within each category.
% Area of 400 + 500 + 200 + 160 = 1260 Traffic Lights
1% 2% 4% 4%
Roads
Finally, we need to consider that at most traffic junctions, there are multiple traffic lights
4 km² 8 km² 8 km² 4 km² for each side of the traffic flow. There are a minimum of 2 traffic lights and a maximum
of 4 at a crossroad. This assumption will also take into account the presence of multiple
Avg Width traffic lights at a single side of the road as well. Particularly for main roads and
10 m 16 m 20 m 25 m highways, there is a series of 3-4 traffic lights to cover the width of such roads to ensure
Of Road
adequate visibility for all vehicles.
Road Length 400 km 500 km 400 km 320 km
Therefore, considering one-third in each segment to find the total number of traffic
lights at junctions, we arrive at our final number.
Avg Distance
1 km 1 km 2 km 2 km
b/w lights
Therefore, the total number of traffic lights in Delhi is estimated as:
# Traffic
400 500 200 160
Signals (1260/3) x (2 + 3 + 4) = 3780 traffic lights

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G #19 Light bulbs Used in DTU Difficult

Preliminary Questions
Departments
Shall I include both tube lights and CFL/incandescent bulbs?
DTU has 14 SPSs and 7 major department buildings.
-No. Only CFL/incandescent bulbs should be taken into account
Assuming the distribution of rooms across all the departments to be more or less equal.
Each department can be segregated into various types of rooms.
Should I calculate the no. of light bulbs bought in an year or the
total no. of light bulbs present in working condition in that campus
in that year? Departments
-Estimate in the no. of lights bulbs used in a particular year. (3 floors)

Shall I include student hostels, faculty residences as well?

-Yes
Assumptions Faculty
Classrooms Labs Washrooms Corridors
Rooms
(3x8=24) (3x4=12) (2x3=6) (3)
- No new departments/buildings come up in the particular year. (45)
- Tube lights are the primary source of light, bulbs are secondary
- 1 light bulb lights up a built up area of 4 square meter
Each classroom has 6 tube lights and 2 bulbs, on an average.

Labs with an area approximately twice that of regular classrooms have an average of
Overall Strategy 10 tube lights and 6 incandescent bulbs.

The campus is broadly divided into Departments and SPSs, Each faculty room has 1 bulb and 1 tubelight
Residential Area, Miscellaneous (Canteen, Library, Audi, Admin
etc.) SPSs are larger in area than regular classrooms with a seating capacity of 100+
students and hence have 12 tube lights but no bulbs
# light bulbs = # rooms x avg # bulbs per room
3 bulbs are present in each washroom.
For large areas, # light bulbs = (proportion of bulbs x built-up area
x avg bulb required per unit area) # light bulbs (Departments and SPSs) = (24x2 + 12x6 + 45x2 + 3x10 + 3x6) x 7
= 1806 ~ 1800 bulbs

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G #19 Light bulbs Used in DTU Difficult

Miscellaneous
Residential Areas
Auditorium and Street Lights and Administrative block and
# students in DTU = 10,000 Library
Sports complex Canteens health centre
20% students live in hostels = 2000
Going with a generalised flat-system in both girls & boys hostel DTU Library Street Lights
where each flat is shared by 4 students. Built-up Area = 5000 Sq.m (all 4 floors) Assuming 10% of road area in 160 acres land,
# hostel flats = 500 Built-up Area lightened by one bulb = 4 Sq.m the road area = (160 x 4050) square metres =
A hostel flat consists of 2 rooms, one common room, a kitchen, Considering 80:20 distribution of tube lights & bulbs, 648000 sq.m.
and one bathroom. Thus a total of 5 rooms with 5 bulbs in total # light bulbs = (5000 x 0.2)/4 = 250
(including the study table lamp bulb). [Refer Assumption #3] Taking the avg width of road as 10m and since
a street light is needed at a distance of every
DTU has 4 boys messes & 1 common girls mess having around DTU Auditorium 50m, as per the regulations.
10 light bulbs each Built-up Area = 1000 Sq.m
Considering 90:10 distribution of tube lights & bulbs # street light bulbs = 64800/50= 1300
Student to Teacher ratio is 30:1 # light bulbs = (0.1 x 1000)/4 = 25
=> # teachers = 10000/30 ~ 330 Canteens
Admin Block There are 3 major canteens in DTU and only one
Considering 75% of the faculty members opt for on-campus There are about 40 small rooms and 10 conference of them has indoor seating with around 10 bulbs.
residences, # residential flats = 250 rooms in administrative block and 20 rooms in And for cooking area, on an average 5
health centre. bulbs/canteen.
A residential flat consists of 2-3 bedrooms, a kitchen, a living # light bulbs = 40x2+10x8+20x4= 240 bulbs
room, 1 or 2 bathrooms. Thus a total of 6-8 rooms with an Total no. of bulbs thus becomes 5 x 3 + 10 = 25
average of 2 bulbs per room Sports Complex
Built-up Area = 500 Sq.m Total Misc Bulbs = 250 + 25 + 240 + 25 + 1300 +
Total # light bulbs in residences # light bulbs = (0.2 x 500)/4 = 25 25 = 1865 ~ 1850
= 400 x 5 x 1+ 248 x 7 x 2+25 x 5 = 5600

Total light Bulbs used in DTU in one year = Department bulbs + Residential Area
bulbs + Misc bulbs = 1800 + 5600 + 1850 = 9250 Bulbs

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

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G #20 People Wearing Blue Shirt on Monday in Delhi Difficult

Preliminary Questions
- Probability of wearing formal shirt: Some popular colours in formal shirts are blue, white, pink,
Shall I include both formal blue shirts and casual ones? green and grey. Assuming 80% of the people wear these colours and 20% wear other colours.
-No. Include only formal shirts Probability of wearing blue formal shirt 80/5 = 16% so, P (formal | blue) = 16%

Shall I include the elderly?

-No People who wear a blue formal shirt

Shall I include blue shirts worn as a part of school uniform? I) Professionals: Neglecting exceptions, these would belong in the age group of 22-60. Assuming an
-Yes equal spread of the population from 1-80 yr, roughly 60% of the population lie in this bracket. This is the
Assumptions total working-age population (1.2 Cr).

- Professionals and School students majorly wear formal blue Considering those belonging to the BPL group do not wear formal, we do an income based
shirts to school segmentation to determine the likelihood of wearing a formal shirt for the rest of the population. .
- 40L School Students in Delhi (Already calculated in G #1) Blue collar employees (LMC such as drivers, security guards) wear a formal shirt as a part of uniform.
- 40% school students wear blue formal shirts to their schools White collar employees (UMC, UC) wear formals because of dress code at workplace. Some of them
- College students wear casual shirts and would rarely wear any have to mandatorily wear formals while for the rest, it’s optional.
formal shirts on a given monday.
Some people are not able to go to work because of illness or any other reason.
Hence, 90% of the people go to work on a given day.
Overall Strategy
Strategy used
People who would wear a formal blue shirt can broadly be
categorized by:
- Professionals [segmented by age (22-60) & income]
%age of
- School and college students [Segmented by age (5-22 Population Segmentation Segmentation by
people who
yrs) and income (excluding BPL) ] of Delhi by age group income group x
went to work
(2 Cr) (1 Cr) P(wearing blue)
(90%)
Number of people wearing a blue shirt on Monday in Delhi =
(# professionals + # school students) who wear a blue shirt

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

 55
G #20 People Wearing Blue Shirt on Monday in Delhi Difficult

Segmentation by II) School and College students: Assuming an equal spread of the population from
income group 1-80 yr, roughly 20% of the population will lie in the 5-22yr bracket which is 40L.

Segmentation Students
School % of students
BPL LMC UMC UC by income wearing blue
students who went to
(20%) (40%) (30%) (10%) (exclude BPL) uniforms
(40L) school (90%)
(80%) (40%)

Number of students who wear a blue shirt:

wear casuals wear formal
(30%) (70%) = 40L x (80%) x {40%} x (90%) School students wearing formal blue
P (Formal): 16%
= 11.52L ~ 12L

Therefore, 80% of the income group can afford to wear blue formal and 90%
of the people go to work on a particular Monday

Number of professionals who wear a formal blue shirt = Number of people wearing a blue shirt on Monday in Delhi =
1 Cr x { (80%) x [(70%) x (16%)] x (90%) } Professionals wearing formal blue (# professionals + # school students) who wear a blue shirt
= 1 Cr x 0.0806 = = 8L +12L
= 20L
= 8.06L ~ 8L

© 180 Degrees Consulting - Delhi Technological University

Guesstimate 1

Estimate the annual demand for Gold flake cigarettes in Mumbai

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Begin by understanding total • Market share
Population of
market for cigarettes in for Gold flake
Mumbai
Mumbai in Delhi is
• Market share for gold flake 20%, 20 Mn
would be similar to other Bangalore is
metropolitan cities such as 22% Not of smoking age
Of smoking age
Delhi and Bangalore (75%) (25%)
15 Mn

Smokers (50%) Non Smokers (50%)

7.5 Mn

400 days 20 Cigs per

1 pack a day
(Year approx.) pack

7.5Mn * 400 * 20 = 60,000 Million Cigarettes a year

Approx. market share of Gold flake = 20%
Demand for Gold flake = 20* 60,000 Million = 12,000 Million Cigarettes a year

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 156

Guesstimate 2

Estimate the number of crows in Ahmedabad

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Since crows will be flying
over different areas during Ahmedabad
the day, it would be Starting Assumption: Ahmedabad Area : 500 (25x20) sq. km
(500 sq. km)
difficult to determine total
number of crows.
• Assume no crow leaves or Low Forest Cover Medium Forest High Forest
enters the city (or assume Cover (30%) Cover (10%)
(60%)
number of crows during
Number of Crows in Ahmedabad
the day to be the same as
during the night) Low Forest Medium Forest High Forest
Area Type
• At night, crows rest on Trees / area Cover Cover Cover
trees. Try to find out the Percentage Area 60% 30% 10%
trees in different regions
of Ahmedabad, and using Trees / (100x100 sq. m) 10 20 50
this data, guesstimate the Nests / tree Nests / Tree 0.2 0.1 0.1
number of crows.
Crows / Nest 4 4 4
Number of Crows
240,000 120,000 100,000
Crows / nest (region-wise)
Total Crows 460,000

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 157

Guesstimate 3

Estimate the annual revenue of a multiplex

Interviewee Notes Case Facts and calculations

• Only cover the substantial Average daily revenue/screen
revenue streams 1. Ticket Sales Revenue per day= Revenue streams
• The footfall will depend on (Average footfall per day)*(Average price
whether it is a weekday or per show)*(No of shows/day)
weekend =200*250*4=Rs 2,00,000 Ticket sales Parking Food & Beverage Advertising
• Price can also be 2. Revenue from parking per week:
considered different for (Average footfall per show)*(% people Digital
Average Average Billboards
weekday and weekend, using parking)*No of shows/day)* price per No of Ads
footfall per
show show shows/day
here although average (Average ticket size)
price has been taken 200*0.5*4*50=Rs 20,000
• Assume that the revenue 3. Advertising Revenue= Assuming it is Weekdays
Weekend
(Mon-
from advertising primarily 10% of the total revenue (Fri-Sun)
Thur)
comes from billboards and 4. Food & Beverage= (Average footfall
digital ads between per show)*(% people buying)*No of Weekdays Weekends
movies. shows/day)*
Seating Capacity 300 300
• This is average revenue (Average ticket size) Average
60% 75%
per screen, can be 200*0.5*4*150=Rs 60,000 occupancy rate
multiplied by number of Average daily revenue/screen =Rs 4.2lac Average footfall 180 225
screens to obtain revenue Total Revenue = Average daily
Average footfall per day = (180*4+225*3)/7~200
of multiplex revenue/screen*No of screens*No of
days
=4.2*4*300 = 5040 lacs =50.4 Cr
(Taking into account some days when
the footfall will be extremely low)

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 158

Guesstimate 4

Estimate the value of a coffin maker’s business in Ahmedabad

Interviewee Notes Approach / Framework

• NPV analysis Profits
• 1% of Ahmedabad Estimating quantity
assumed to be Christian
• Life expectancy assumed
Population
to be 70 and population (60,00,000) Revenues Costs
growth rate of Christians
assumed to be 0%
• Only 3 coffin makers in % Christian (1%) = Price Fixed costs
Ahmedabad (info received 60,000
(Rs. 10,000) (Rs. 4,00,000)
from interviewer) so
market share assumed to No. of deaths per year
be 1/3 = (1/70)*60,000 = Quantity
~900 Variable Costs
• FC and VC provided by (300) (60% of price)
interviewer when asked
• Discount rate assumed to
Market Share = 1/3
be 10% (chosen for ease
of calculation and NPV = (10,000*300 – 4,00,000 -
reasonable since risk free .6*10,000*300)/0.1 = Rs. 80,00,000
rate is ~7%) Quantity = 300
• Profits assumed to stay
constant into perpetuity

Observations / Suggestions
• This guesstimates tests the basics of finance (NPV, PV of perpetuity)
• Common mistakes include not account for the % of population that is Christian (assuming everyone that dies needs a coffin) and errors in calculating no. of deaths

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 159

Guesstimate 5

Estimate the monthly electricity consumption (residential) in India

Interviewee Notes Approach / Framework

Electricity
• Clarify end-markets to be included
(residential / commercial) because
consumption rates are very different in
these segments. In this case, focus only Residential Commercial
on residential.
• Within rural segment, interviewee
should consider adjusting for (1) Urban Population Rural Population =
= 300m 700m
homeless people and (2) areas which
are not electrified
• Weighing monthly consumption by % of
Households = Households =
households in the income type and 300m/4 = 75m 700m/6 = 120m
multiplying this by # of households will
give monthly units consumption
Low Income 60% Mid Income 30% High Income 10% Low Income 70% Mid Income 25% High Income 5%

Monthly Monthly Monthly

Consumption Monthly Monthly Consumption Consumption Monthly
Consumption 1200 Consumption 3000 Consumption 1000
300 units 100 units 300

75m x (60% x 300 + 30% x 1200 + 10% x 3000) = 63,000 units 120m x (70% x 100 + 25% x 300 + 5% x 1000) = 23,400 units

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 160

Guesstimate 6

To estimate the revenue of tourism in Gujarat in peak months

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Was required to estimate Cost per trip = Market for tourism per
cost per person per Lodging + Travel peak month
bucket and number of + Food +
people in each bucket Sightseeing
• Usually it’s easier to Total Revenue =
analyse group costs over (Population x
Couple Groups Family International
individual costs Can afford x No.
• Was required to take in India x No. in
Filters Couple Groups Family International
several assumptions Gujarat x No. in
• Quantitatively intensive peak month/ No. Population 20mn 110mn 200mn 2mn
case, required a significant of people per Can afford 20% 10% 10% N/A
amount of breaking down group) x cost per Number in India 80% 100% 80% N/A
into trip Number in Gujarat 5% 10% 5% 10%
Number in peak month 25% 8.33% 16.67% 25%
• Number of marriages Number of people per group 2 5 5 2
taken to be 10mn
Cost per trip/group 11,500 6,000 12,000 20,000
• Calculation done for Lodging 4,000 2,000 5,000 5,500
tourists only from urban Travel 2,000 1,500 2,000 4,000
India and abroad Food 3,000 1,500 3,000 3,000
Sightseeing 2,500 1,000 2,000 7,500

Total revenue 230mn 110mn 320mn 500mn

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 161

Guesstimate 7

Estimate the monthly mobile data usage (GB) in 2020

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework Monthly Data Usage (in GB) by different age groups & income levels
• Divide current population
into Urban and Rural. Current Population Income Low Medium High
Calculate data for only (1 billion)
Urban population, and Age 60% 30% 10%
extrapolate for Rural
0-15 25% 0 0 0.5
population using a similar
logic
15-30 35% 0.1 5 6
• In Urban areas, data usage Urban (30%) Rural (70%)
is dependent on factors
30-50 25% 0.1 2 4
like age group (older
generation may not be >50 15% 0 0 2
tech savvy) and income
(lower income groups Age Group Weighted Average (WA) 0.036 0.675 0.353
might not have access to
smartphones)
• Estimate usage for 2017, Total Data Usage (GB) / Annual Data Usage (GB)
Population
and assuming an annual (Sum of WA) month (2017) Growth / month (2020)
growth, predict usage for 1.064 300 m 320 m 10% 425 m
Income
2020

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 162

Guesstimate 8

Estimate the daily revenue of an airport

Interviewee Notes Case Facts and calculations

• Only cover the most
substantial revenue streams Revenue airline fee: 5% of the total ticket Revenue streams
• Assume shops pay a fixed fare
and a variable fee to the
Revenue from shops:
airport Airline fees Shops Advertising
Parking + lounge
• The number of flights per (Fixed fee per shop + % of revenue *
hour depends on whether it Volume) * Number of shops
fixed fee: Fixed fee Variable fee Billboards
is a rush hour Variable
Advertising Revenue= Meters of check-in
• Assume that the revenue fee for slot
billboards * price/meter spaces
from advertising primarily Small Med Large
comes from billboards
Domestic International
• Assume that parking +
Type Small Medium Large
lounge are only a minor
revenue stream for airports Size 1x1 2x2 3x5
Rush [hour] Number 500 200 50
and can be skipped.
Total Area 500 800 750
• Assume that the airline fees Low(7) High(11)
Med(6)
primarily come from the
variable fee for slots Rush hour Low Medium High
Hours 7 6 11
Flights/h 2 6 12
Flights/day 14 36 132

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Should first create structure, then put numbers to it
• Make reasonable assumptions, clarify with interviewers at each stage
• Be prepared to justify your assumptions at each stage

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 163

Guesstimate 9

Estimate the yearly revenue of an IPL team

Interviewee Notes Case Facts and Calculations Approach/ Framework

Only cover the most
Revenue advertising:
substantial revenue streams Revenue streams
(Price per m of billboard * length)*
IPL revenue only receives a
Matches
small fraction of the revenue
5000*400*7= 1.4 Crore
(35% for home games, 5% for
(Small shirt ads*Price +shirt sponsor)*
away), the rest is paid to the Price
matches Ads TV ads Stadium Merchandise
league Money
(10*5 Lakh +20 Lakh)*14= 10 Crore
The circumference of a
cricket pitch is approximately
Revenue tickets:
400 meters Shops Tickets
No. of home matches*Tickets*Ticket
The probability of winning the Billboards Uniform
price*% of revenue (same for away
league is the same for each
matches)
team (1/8)
7*50k*500*0.35+7*50k*500*0.05≈7CR
A league season consist of 14
matches
Prize Money
Merchandise is only a minor Inter-over Special breaks
Probability of winning * price money
revenue stream for an IPL breaks
(1/8) * 5 Cr ≈ 60 Lakh
team, and hence, can be
skipped
TV ads (See Framework) Inter-over
Type of Advertisement Special Breaks
Breaks
No. Of slots 40 3
Price per slot 20 Lakh 5 Crore
Total 8 Cr 15 Cr

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 164

Guesstimate 10

Estimate the number of emails flowing though IIMA mail server

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Was asked to exclude
PGPX and other programs Mails
for simplicity.

Academic Administrative SIF Peer-to-peer

PGP 1 : GNB: 10/week * 4 Joos + 6 5 mails per community

=# courses * # students * # Community size SPFS/JPNS/day=10/day member =5*2k
mails/course (2k) * 7 * 1000( No of =10k/week
= 6* 450* 3 = 8.1 k/week = students)
20k/week =70k/week
PGP2:
=# courses* # students *
#mails/week Framework Summary
= 30*80*3 • Structured the case into 4 parameters – Academic, Administrative, SIF and Peer to peer.
=7.2 k/week • #mails/course: 2 from Instructor on average and 1 for the quiz notification
• Community size: 1000 students + 1000 faculty, academic and other staff.
• There will be some other additional external mails which are sent from outside.
• Also PGPX and other programs are not taken into consideration.

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 165

Guesstimate 11

Estimate the total length of barbed wire used in India

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Assume square farmlands
Total used, land area
• Find the average perimeter of each size of farmland
of India
• Barbed wire needed = perimeter * number of
times the wire is wound
• Adjacent farmlands would be sharing a common
side of barbed wiring. Farmland Residential Industrial
(70%) (20%) (10%)
• Multiply the total number with a factor to account
for how barbed wire is usually used: circled
through the perimeter Small Sized Medium Sized Large Sized
(30mx30m) (50mx50m) (100mx100m)
50% 30% 20%

Perimeter Number of Discount for

Times shared sides
Wound (2)

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 166

Guesstimate 12

To estimate profit made by SBI branch in IIMA Campus.

Calculations Approach/ Framework

Loans per year ~100; Lifetime – 5 yrs.
500 active loans at any point
Principal Rs.10 lakh (for 20 lakh fee –
averaged over repayment of 5 years)
Net interest margin – 3%
Interest income = 500*10*3% = INR 1.5 Cr
Bank Profit

Exchange students – 100 trips/ year

Faculty – 200 trips / year
Insurance Premium per person – 2000 Interest Insurance Forex Fees Less: NPA
~ 40% commission for per policy
Fees – 300*2000*0.4 = INR 2.4 lakh
Forex – INR 6000 per person (assume Number of loans
Net interest Exchange Students Average FOREX Defaulters
margin Loan life and value Premium
everyone carries INR 1 lakh worth FOREX) and Faculty (300 carried (1 lakh (very low, 1 in
(500 active) (5 years, 10 lakh) (2000*40%)
(3%) trips / year) @6% income) 500)
Forex income = 300*6000 = INR 18 lakh

NPA – Total Loss of Principal and Interest

– 1 per year
~INR 25 lakh

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 167

Guesstimate 13

Estimate the revenue of a typical post office in India.

Calculations Approach/ Framework

Major portion of revenue – logistics and Post office revenue
parcels. Others ignored

Typical circle of coverage for a metro

post office ~ 2 km radius or 12 km2 Logistics and
Account deposit Sale of Forms etc. Co-branding
parcels
Typical metro area = 500 km2
Thus, 40 post offices in the metro
Assume, high volume – 20 and medium,
low - 10 Demand side Supply side
analysis analysis

Two approaches – demand side (number

of transactions) and supply side (number Number of Post Transactions per Counters
Transaction Traffic /
Hours per day
Hours per day capacity / hour Efficiency
of counters, utilisation in a day) offices hour

Revenue per parcel ~ 50, neglect any

charges for extra weights etc Traffic High Medium Low Traffic High Medium Low

# PO 20 10 10 # PO 20 10 10
Total parcels ~20000
Transaction/hour 80 30 15 Counters 10 5 3
Total revenue ~ INR 10 lakh
Hours / day 10 10 10 Hourly capacity / transaction 10 10 10

Total 16000 3000 1500 Hours / day * Utilisation 10 * 30% 10* 20% 10* 50%

Total 18000 3500 1500

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad -2020-21 Page 168

Guesstimate 14

Golf balls in the air in an average second in India

Calculations Approach/ Framework

• #golf players : assume only people earning ₹15 lakh and
above will play golf as it is an expensive hobby to pursue. The
#people above that income threshold is around 5 million.
Out of these 50 lakh, assume 70% live in urban areas and Income eligible players 5 million
have access to a golf course
❖ Out of remaining 3.5 million,1.5 million will be
children and senior citizens. Hence 2 million Facility eligible players (urban) 3.5 million
people eligible
❖ Out of these 2 million, assume 50% play any sport
(assumption on basic fitness) Age eligible population 2 million
❖ The remaining 1 million can play one out of upto
20 sports (cricket, badminton, tennis, swimming
etc). Thus 5% on average will end up playing golf Population that plays sports 1 million
i.e there are 50,000 players
• Frequency of play
❖ We assume that the average player plays once a Population that plays golf 50,000
month (expensive and time consuming sport)
• Number of hits
❖ We assume that the average game is one round,
Avg # of players/week ~1666
18 hole
❖ The average number of hits per game is 108 (18
holes, par score is 4 and everyone hits 2 above par
Avg number of hits/game Number of hits/day # of balls in the air/second
as players are not professionals)
❖ We assume that the average ball spends about 1
second in the air 108 (18 holes, 4 par, 2 above) 1,80,000 2.08 per second
❖ Thus the number of ball seconds in the air is
~1,80,000 per day =108*1666 =180000/86400
❖ The average number of balls/second is 2.08

Recommendations
• This case can also be approached from the supply side. The supply side in this case is the number of golf courses, their average utilization etc

Tips / Suggestions
• It is essential to reverse ladder the population to arrive at the number of golf players. You can clarify your assumptions with the interviewer at all points of time
• Lay out your approach upfront for the interviewer so that if a different approach is to adopted, course correction can happen at the earliest

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 169

Guesstimate 15

Calculate the annual market for medical X-ray machines in India

Calculations Approach/ Framework

Replacement demand
• Calculate the stock of X-Ray machines in India
• Break India into rural and urban areas
Demand Sources
• Estimate bed per thousand people in urban and rural areas
separately and make assumptions about average hospital size
and #X-Ray machines per hospital (2.5 for urban and 1 for
rural)
Replacement sources New sources
• This will give you the stock of X-Ray machines at hospitals
• Do similar exercise for clinics by calculating the stock of
orthopaedicians in private practice
• Demand: Divide the stock by life cycle to get the 1 year
demand for X-Ray machines
New demand
• Estimate the growth in healthcare expenditure and use that
as a growth rate for hospital bed availability. Then calculate Hospitals Small clinics Hospitals Small clinics
the number of hospitals and the number of X-Ray
machines/hospital Beds/Thousand #Hospitals #Xray Machines Growth (#Number of Total annual market
• Differentiate this rate for urban and rural areas and calculate Machines) (hospitals only)
the new demand for X-Ray machines coming from hospitals
• Calculate the new demand coming from clinics by : (Doctors 0.5 4000 (100 4000 (Stock)
Rural +10% per year (400) 800
graduating - #Doctors joining public sector)*Proportion of (800m) beds avg) Replacement Demand : 400
Orthopaedicians
2 4000 (200 10000 (Stock)
• This will give the number of new orthopaedicians who will Urban +15% per year (600) 1600
(400m) bed avg) Replacement demand : 1000
join private services every year and buy an X-ray for their
clinic

Recommendations
• Can be approached from the patient demand side in this case. The demand case in this guesstimate is the number of injuries and use cases

Tips / Suggestions
• It is essential to structure the demand into different brackets first.
• Interviewer will automatically guide you to focus on the most important bracket

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 Page 170

Guesstimate 16

Estimating the number of Zoom users in India post-COVID

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Begin by understanding primary • Defining
usage of Zoom- as per locational Users- who
divide and age demographics use Zoom Population of India
• Gauge Zoom’s market share to frequently for
estimate users classes, 130 Cr
• Considering rural urban population meetings,
pre-COVID discussions Rural Urban
• Chances of Rural people using etc.
Zoom are negligible 30% ~ 40 Cr
• Population with 60+ age would be
negligible
• Age group 0-14 has 66% students Age Demographics 0-14 15-25 26-40 40-60 60+
• 50% students/individuals in age
12 Cr 8 Cr 10 Cr 8 Cr 2 Cr
groups 0-14 & 15-25 have access
to technology Individuals using video
• Age groups 26-40 & 40-60 will 4 Cr 4 Cr 1.5 Cr 1.2 Cr
conferencing
primarily have working
professionals- 50%*30% (labour
force*formal sector workers)
Considering Zoom’s
2.3 Cr
market share (~20%)

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• 15-25 and 26-40 brackets can be merged for a much better structural presentation.
• First create structure, then put numbers to it.

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 171

Guesstimate 17

Estimate the number of heaters sold in India in 2019

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Population of India is taken as 1.2B Population of India

and average family size of 4, which
130 Cr
leads to total number of household
equal to 300M South states North states
• Population split by North and
South – 60% and 40%
• No heater are bought in Southern Rural Urban
Part of India
• High income group having salary > 60%, ~120M 30% ~ 40 Cr
10-12L, Middle class salary range –
2-10L, Poor family income < 2L Rich Middle Class Poor Rich Middle Class Poor
• Average life of heater for a high
income family to be 3 years and for Income
Demographics 10%, ~6M 30%, ~20M 60%, ~34M 2%, ~2M 8%, ~10M 90%, ~108M
middle class family to be 5 years
Households having
heaters 80%, ~5M 40%, ~8M 0% 40%, ~0.8M 10%, 1M 0%

Households buying
33%, ~1.5M 20%, ~1.5M 0% 33%, ~0.3M 20%, 0.2M 0%
heater in 2019

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• This case can also be approached from the supply side. Number of heater sellers, sales per day and bucketed into various locations.
• Round off numbers, rather than trying to be too precise

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 172

Guesstimate 18

Estimate the no. of sanitary pads used in India in a year

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

Population of India
• Look at it from the consumer
(1250 Mn)
side, Begin by understanding
total number of women in the
menstruating age
Female (600 Mn) Male (650 Mn)
• Incorporate population
distribution (rural, urban) and
income characteristics as rural
or low income women generally 6 Mn
Non-menstruating (0- Menstruating Menopause
don’t use sanitary pads
14 years), 30% (15-45 years), 50% (45+ years), 20%
• Assume average period length
to be 5 days. 300 Mn

Urban (30%) Rural (70%)

90 Mn
Mid or High Income
Low Income (20%)
(80%)
72 Mn 18 Mn
(Round off to 75 Mn)

Average no. of pads used per cycle = 5

Average no. of cycles per month = 1 i.e. 12 cycles per year
Estimated no. of pads used in India = 75Mn * 5 pads/cycle *12 cycles/ year = 4500 Mn pads/year

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Mid & High-Income approximation might have been an overestimate in this case.
• Make reasonable assumptions and clarify with interviewers at each stage

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 173

Guesstimate I9

Estimate the weekly usage of shampoo (in L) in Mumbai

Interviewee Notes Calculations Approach/ Framework

Population of Mumbai
• Segment population based Total shampoo usage =20Mn
on income groups of frequency per week=
households Shampoo frequency
per member of High Income Middle income Low income
• Identify the frequency with
which each type of income household* number of
members per Characteristics of income 4 people/household, 5 people/household, 6 people/household,
group uses shampoo
household groups 20% of population 30% of population 50% of population
• Identify the amount of
shampoo used per session by Population, Pop: 4Mn, Pop: 6Mn, Pop: 10Mn,
each income group (sachet Total ml of shampoo households in each Households: 1Mn Households: 1.2Mn Households: 1.7Mn
size vs taking from bottle) used per week= Total
• Use these to estimate the shampoo usage Shampoo frequency/
3/week 2/week 1/week
total weekly shampoo usage frequency per week* member of household
by each category and total in ml of shampoo used
Mumbai per person per wash Total shampoo usage 12 times a week 10 times a week 6 times a week
• Remember to convert ml to frequency per week per household per household per household
L ml of shampoo used
• Low income households will Total L of shampoo 10 ml 8 ml 5 ml
used per category per per person per wash
use ‘shampoo’ less frequently
per week week= Total shampoo
Total ml of shampoo
• High income will use more used by household in 120 ml/ household 80 ml/ household 30 ml/ household
used per week
shampoo per wash ml* number of
households/1000 Total L of shampoo
120k L 96k L 51k L
per category per week

Total L of shampoo in
Mumbai per week
120k + 96k + 51k = 267k L/week
60k+96k+60k L = 2.12k L

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• In case of a long drawn analysis, it may also help to mention the approach upfront to the interviewer so that a course correction can be made sooner.
• Always do a sanity check in multi layered estimates

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 174

Guesstimate 20

Estimate the number of Credit Cards (CC) issued in India

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• 40:60 Urban:Rural population Population of

divide, because CC popular only India
in urban areas 1.3 Bn Income # of CC on
• 50:50 population divide in (tier- % of 1
Distribution (INR) average
1 and tier-2 cities): towns, Rural Urban
because CC are popular only in
tier-1 and tier-2 cities 780 Mn 520 Mn 15,000 – 30,000 50% 0.5
• Assuming 50% of working age
Tier - 1 & Tier - 30,000 – 60,000 30% 1
• Assuming banks issuing credit Towns
card only to those who earn >= 2 cities
INR 15,000 per month. 30:70 260 Mn 260 Mn 60,000 – 1,20,000 15% 3
divide here
• Income distribution as provided Unemployable
Working age 1,20,000+ 5% 4
in table age
• Total # of cards 1 130 Mn 130 Mn
= 39 Mn * % of * # of CC
avg Income < INR Income >= INR
15,000 15,000 1
91 Mn 39 Mn

# of credit cards across income distributions: 39*0.5*0.5 = 9.75 Mn

39*0.3*1 = 11.7 Mn
39*0.15*3 = 17.55 Mn
39*0.05*4 = 7.8 Mn
Total # of credit cards issued in India = (9.75 + 11.7 + 17.55 + 7.8) Mn = 46.8 Mn

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Urban % and Working age % estimates might need a slight correction
• It is a good idea to listen to the interviewer comments carefully, and if time permits, try to address them

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 175

Guesstimate 21

Estimate the revenue of Maggi in Delhi during Lockdown phase-1

Interviewee Notes Calculations Approach/ Framework

• 60% of Delhi’s population • Population of
consumes instant noodles Delhi=2 crores Population of Delhi that consumes Above poverty line
• 15% of Delhi’s population • Population of Delhi any instant noodles (60%) population (75%)
falls below poverty line that consumes 1.02 crores
1.2 crores
• Population distribution in instant noodles= 1.2
age group (0-14) is 25% crores
and (15-34) is 40% • Above poverty line Age group 0-14 (25%) Age group 15-34 (40%)
• Rural : urban population = population =
2:98 1.2*0.85= 1.02 0.255 crores 0.408 crores
• Each target audience of crores
rural India consumes 1 • Population which falls Rural (2%) Urban (98%) Rural (2%) Urban (98%)
packet of instant noodle a in age group(0-14)=
week 1.02*0.25= 0.255 51000 0.249 crores 81600 0.399 crores
• Urban population in age crores
group (0-14) consumes 2 • Population which falls Revenue generated in 51000* Rs12*1 0.245*Rs12*2 81600*Rs12*1 time 0.399*Rs12*4
packets a week while (15- in age group(15-34)= a week time= 6 lakhs times= 5.99 crores = 19.6 lakhs times= 19.18 crores
34) consumes 4 packets a 1.02*0.4= 0.408
week crores Total revenue in a
INR 25.44 crores
• Market share of Maggi in • Total revenue in a week
Delhi is 50% week = 0.0612+
• Each person consumes a 5.99+ 0.196+ 19.192 Total revenue in 3
single packet of Rs 12 = INR 25.44 crores INR 76.32 crores
weeks
• Age group (35 and above) • Total revenue in 3
is not considered weeks = 25.44*3 =
Total revenue of
INR 76.32 crores INR 38.16 crores
Maggi (50% share)
• Revenue of Maggi =
76.32*0.5 = 38
crores Therefore revenue of Maggi during Phase 1 of lockdown = INR 38.16 crores

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Rural demand is miniscule and can be ignored to focus better on the Urban demand
• Round off numbers, rather than trying to be too precise

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 176

Guesstimate 22

Estimate the number of face masks used over a race weekend in Formula 1

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

Formula 1
• Make sure to include big • Number of days taken to
and small budget teams in conduct a race = 3 days
computation • Number of face masks
• Also, the organisors will used/day = 1 mask Participating teams Organisers
have a lot of people for • Number of face masks
themselves used =Total number of
people * number of masks
used/day * number of days
Big budget team Medium budget team Small budget team

Big budget Medium budget Small budget

No of teams Team Organisers
team team team
No of teams 3 5 2 -

Total no of No. of employees/team 1000 600 300 400

employees Percentage of field
10% 15% 25% 80%
employees
Percentage of field No. of people/team 100 90 75 320
employees Total no. of people 300 450 150 320

No. of face masks used = = 1220 x 1 x 3 = 3660 masks

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• In an unconventional case, it is a good idea to keep the interviewer in loop at all times
• It is helpful to first draft a structure, then put numbers to it.

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 177

Guesstimate 23

Estimate the number of cycles sold in West Bengal every year

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Begin by understanding total • Ignore Population of West Bengal
number of people in shared cycle
rural/urban regions ecosystems 10 Cr
• Estimate number of households like Yulu Urban Region Rural Region
in each region • Include
• Incorporate income brackets to cycles for 7 Cr
3 Cr
divide the households further professional
• Estimate proportion of cycles and personal Rural Households
Urban Households
for each region and income use across
bracket the age 75 Lakh 120 Lakh
• Estimate lifespan of cycles groups
• Assuming 4 per household in Urban
and 6 per household in Rural
Upper Middle Lower Upper Middle Lower
BPL BPL
• Assuming 15-40-40-5 split in Urban income income income income income income
and 5-30-40-25 split in Rural
Regions 10 Lakh 30 Lakh 30 Lakh 5 Lakh 5 Lakh 35 Lakh 50 Lakh 30 Lakh
• Assuming proportion of cycles per Cycles/
household in each bucket as shown. 0.1 0.3 0.5 0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0
household
• More children likely to buy in urban
areas than Rural areas for
recreational use. 10 + 15 + 15 + 20 = 60 lakh Cycles in West Bengal at a given time
• Not considering any second hand
purchases
12 lakh cycles per year Assuming cycle lifespan of 5 years

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Lower Income and BPL can be taken together for a more compact structure
• At the end and during the case, always do a sanity check

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21 178

 Toll Plaza
Estimate daily revenues of Delhi-Gurgaon toll plaza

• •
• •
• •
• •

Traffic Distribution
1
Capacity

0.5 Noon

Midnight
0
Time
TOI Revenues
Estimate daily revenues of Times of India

• •
• •
• •
• •
 Smart Watches
Estimate the market size of Smart Watches in India

• •
•
• •
•
•

0.70*130cr = 91cr 0.30*130cr = 39cr

0.30*91cr = 27.3cr 0.10*91cr = 9.1cr 0.30*39cr = 11.7cr 0.10*39cr = 3.9cr

Toothbrushes
If a UFO sucked all the toothbrushes in India, how many would it have?

• •

• •
•
E-Rickshaw
Revenue of a typical e-rickshaw driver per day

• •
• •
• •
•
Smokers in India
Estimate the number of Smokers in India

•
•
•
Cheese Burst Pizzas
Estimate the number of cheese bursts pizzas sold by Dominos daily

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•
•
• •
• •
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•

•
•
•

•
•
•
Petrol Pumps
Estimate the number of Petrol Pumps in Delhi (Approach 1)

• •
•
• •
• •
•
Petrol Pumps
Estimate the number of Petrol Pumps in India (Approach 2)

• •
•
• •

• •

Avg time to fill 15 l petrol =

3 min
Avg booths = 4
25 crore users 15 crore users 4 hours 10 hours Capacity = 15*4*(4*60/3 =
70 km/l mileage 10 km/l mileage 100% 50% 16800 l

Demand of Petrol = [Avg distance = 30 km] * Petrol Supplied per pump = [Avg Usage Ratio = (1*4+0.5*10)/14 =
[25cr/70 km/l + 15cr/10 km/l] = 55.7 crore litre 0.64]*[Capacity = 16,800 l] = 10,800 litre
Petrol Pumps
Estimate the number of Petrol Pumps in India (Approach 3)

• •
•
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• •
• •
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•
•
•
TT Balls
Estimate the number of TT balls used in a day in Delhi

• •
• •
• •
•
TT Balls
Estimate the number of TT balls used in a day in Delhi
White Shirts in Delhi
Estimate the number of people wearing a white shirt (WS) in Delhi on any particular day.

• •
•
• •
•
•
Delhi Schools
Estimate the number of Schools in Delhi

= /
Departing Flights
Estimate number of flights departing from Delhi Airport in a Day

• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
People you met
Estimate the number of people you interacted with over the last year
Tractors in India
Estimate the number of tractors in India

• •
•
• •
•
•
•
Tractors in India
Estimate the number of tractors in India
EV Market Size
Estimate the market size of EV in India

• •
• •
• •
• •
• •
• •

•
DTC Bus
Estimate the number of DTC buses in Delhi
Flat Screen Televisions
Estimate the revenue of flat screen televisions sold in Australia in the past 12 months

• •
• •
• •
• •
Amazon India
Guesstimate the number of daily order of Amazon India

• •
• •
• •
• •
• •
• •
Daily revenue of Airport
Estimate the daily revenue of an airport

x x

x
Daily Revenue of 24x7 Retail Store Chain
Estimate the daily revenue of 24x7 chain of Retail Store

• •

• •
• •
• •

₹ ₹
 Subway Surfers
Walkthrough

I’m assuming you travel to college by metro. What if you had to estimate the fleet size of Delhi metro? How would
CASE TYPE you go about it?

Yes, I commute by metro almost everyday. What exactly do we mean by fleet size?
GUESSTIMATE Fleet size means the number of trains in the network at a given point in time.

Are we talking about the active fleet of trains in the network or are we also including those which are in the yard and are
COMPANY not in use currently?

Good question. We are only concerned with the active fleet.

Kepler Cannon Understood. The active fleet can be calculated using the following formula:

Number of trains = Number of metro lines * Number of trains/line

ROUND I know that there are 10 metro lines in Delhi. To calculate the number of trains/line, we can look at the frequency of trains
and make an estimate of the time it takes the train to complete the trip from the first station to the last station on the
line.
Manager
I travel to college on the yellow line. There is one train which comes every 4 minutes in peak hours. We are only
concerned by the frequency in peak hours since our objective is to find the maximum number of trains in use at any
point during the day. This will essentially give us the fleet size. The journey from the first stop to the last stop of the yellow
Most guesstimates don’t line takes about 80 minutes. However, I think the yellow line is one of the longer lines in the metro network. After
fall under a specific adjusting for this, we can say that the average metro route can be covered in about 60 minutes.
industry, hence an open Number of trains/line = Total time taken to complete journey/Frequency of trains
mind always helps
Therefore, the number of trains/line is about 15. However, we still have to take one thing into consideration. These 15
trains are going in one direction. There are another 15 which will be going in the opposite direction at the same time.
Thus, we are left with 30 trains/line. Finally, we can multiply it with the total number of lines in Delhi, i.e., 10.

Hence, the active fleet size of Delhi metro = 10 * 30 = 300.

Good job.

DIFFICULTY
198
 Subway Surfers
Framework

FLEET SIZE OF DELHI METRO

Clarifying Questions
NO. OF TRAINS

▪ What do we mean by
fleet size?
▪ Are we concerned
only with the active No. Of Lines No. Of Trains/Line
fleet size?

Brownie Points
Total Time Taken To
Frequency Of Trains 2
Complete The Journey
▪ Incorporating own
travelling experience
to make more
accurate assumptions

Keep In Mind

▪ It is easier to solve
guesstimates if you
can visualise the
problem at hand
▪ Account for only peak
hours while
calculating the fleet
size
199
 Don’t Do Coke
Walkthrough

Hey, let’s begin with a quick case. You are required to estimate the volume of Pepsi sold in a cricket game at the
CASE TYPE Wankhede stadium, Mumbai.

Oh wow, that’s interesting! Are we talking about an international match, IPL match or Ranji Trophy/domestic
tournament match? Also, can I make the assumption that this is pre-covid when crowds were allowed in stadiums? How
GUESSTIMATE is the weather during the match?

It is an IPL match between Royal Challengers Bangalore and Mumbai Indians. Yes, assume the year is 2019. It is a
pleasant evening – not too cold and not too hot.
COMPANY
Okay. I can begin now. My formula would be as follows –

Total volume of Pepsi sold = Total number of seats * % occupancy * % that purchase a soft drink * % that purchase Pepsi *
BCG Volume purchased by each person

I would first estimate the total number of people that can be accommodated by the stadium. Wankhede is an average-
sized stadium in India. By my understanding, it has around 8 stands and an average of 4,000 seats in each stand. This
ROUND would give us a total capacity of 32,000 seats in the stadium.

Considering it is a high-profile match with popular players on both sides, it would be reasonable to assume a 90%
PRINCIPAL occupancy rate.

To estimate the percentage that would buy a soft drink, I would like to look at 3 filters – Income, Health, Mood.
Since around 4 out of the 8 stands have affordable tickets, we can assume that these are people that are budget
conscious and considering a glass of Pepsi is expensive inside a stadium, we can rule them out from purchasing the
Most guesstimates don’t drink (The logic is similar to a movie theatre where middle class consumers are reluctant to spend on soft drinks). There
fall under a specific also exists a percentage of people that avoid soft drinks for health reasons. We can assume this percentage to be around
industry, hence an open 30%. Lastly, among the people that can afford and do drink soft drinks, we can assume around 20% to not be interested
in a soft drink on the given day. This gives us 50%*70%*80% = 30% (approx.).
mind always helps
Next, there are around 4 popular soft drinks. If the preference was uniform, we would get 25% per drink. However,
adjusting for the fact that Pepsi is more popular, we can assume around 40% would purchase Pepsi.

Lastly, we can assume an average of 1.25 glasses consumed per person (Around 1 glass per person and accounting for 1 in
4 people buying 2 glasses). Each glass is around 300ml, so this gives us 375 ml on an average.

Putting the numbers into the formula we get -

Total volume of Pepsi sold = 32,000 * 90% * 30% * 40% * 375ml = 1296 litres

DIFFICULTY Therefore, we can assume approximately 1,300 litres of Pepsi is sold in an IPL match in the Wankhede stadium.
200
 Don’t Do Coke
Framework

AMOUNT OF PEPSI SOLD

Clarifying Questions Volume Of Pepsi Sold = Total Seats At The Stadium X % Occupancy X % That Purchase Soft
Drinks X % That Purchase Pepsi X % Volume Per Person
▪ What type of a cricket
match is it?
Total Seats at No. Of Stands Total Amount
32,000
the Stadium 8 4,000
Brownie Points

▪ Accounting for
different factors while % Occupancy IPL Match High Profile 90%
arriving at % of people
that purchase soft
drinks at the stadium
▪ Asking about the % That Purchase Income Not Health Mood To
weather 30%
Soft Drinks Friendly 50% Conscious 70% Drink 80%

Keep In Mind
% That Adjustment for
4 Main Drinks 40%
▪ Such a guesstimate Purchase Pepsi Pepsi (Popular)
came about after
discussion with the
Interviewer. The Volume Per Most People Some People Avg. 1.25 Glass
candidate expressed 375 ML
Person 1 Glass 2 Glasses 300ml
interest in cricket.
Fret not, you would
not be required to
know intricate details
about stadiums and 32,000 x 90% x 30% x 40% x 375ml = 1,300L (approx.)
cricket in general.
201
 My Name is Khan
Walkthrough

You need to estimate the number of people who visit Khan Market in a day.
CASE TYPE
Sure, I have some clarifying questions. What day are we talking about? Weekend/Weekday/Festival etc.

GUESSTIMATE You can assume it to be a weekend.

Alright. What do we mean by number of people? Will we include the employees and casual walkers as well?

COMPANY Good question. We mean the number of people visiting with a purpose.

Sure, thank you. From what I know, people visit Khan Market for shopping and its restaurants. Is there any other purpose
I should be aware of?
BAIN & COMPANY
No, you can look at these two.

Sure. We can analyse this problem by identifying bottlenecks from the supply side.
ROUND
Step 1: Estimating the number of restaurants
Step 2: Distribution of occupancy rates across the day
MANAGER Step 3: Estimating the number of shops
Step 4: Distribution of footfall across the day
Step 5: Subtraction of overlap of people eating as well as shopping

Most guesstimates don’t Does this process seem okay to you or should I look at something else?
fall under a specific
You can proceed with this structure.
industry, hence an open
mind always helps Sure.

Step 1: Estimating the number of restaurants

Khan Market has 2 inner lanes and 2 outer lanes

Assuming 10 restaurants per inner lane and assuming 15 restaurants per outer lane gives us 50 restaurants.

Step 2: Distribution of occupancy rates across the day

Assuming every restaurant is equally popular (it averages out), we do not have to categorise the restaurants according to
popularity.
DIFFICULTY (Refer to Table 1)
202
 My Name is Khan
Walkthrough

Total number of people visiting a single restaurant = 168

CASE TYPE Total = 168 * 50 = 8,400

Assumption: Turnaround time of every table is 1 hour.

GUESSTIMATE Step 3: Estimating the number of shops

Khan Market has 2 inner lanes and 2 outer lanes

COMPANY Assuming 10 shops per inner lane and assuming 10 shops per outer lane gives us 40 shops

Step 4: Distribution of occupancy rates across the day

BAIN & COMPANY (refer to Table 2)

Total number of visits per shop = 134

Total number of visits in all shops in Khan Market = 134*40 = 5,360
ROUND On an average a person visits 3 stores.
Total number of people shopping at Khan Market = 5360/3 =1,800 (approx.)

MANAGER Step 5: Subtraction of overlap

On an average, we can assume 1 in every 4 people that go shopping in Khan market will eat at restaurants. This is based
on my personal experience going shopping to any place.
Most guesstimates don’t
fall under a specific People exclusively coming for shopping = 1,800 - (1,800/4) = 1,350.
industry, hence an open Total number of people coming to Khan market everyday = 8,400 + 1,350 = 9,750.
mind always helps
Good job. We can close the case now.

DIFFICULTY
203
 My Name is Khan
Framework

NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO VISIT KHAN MARKET IN A DAY

TABLE 1
Clarifying Questions
Hours (Working hours 10 AM - 10 PM) Occupancy rates Total (Assuming turnover
(Average seating - 5 tables of 4 = 20) period of 1 hour)
▪ Whether employees
are included in Peak (1 PM – 3 PM and 7 PM – 10 PM) = 100% 100 (20*5)
footfall? 5 hours
▪ Which day? Medium (4 PM - 7 PM) = 3 hours 60% 36 (12*3)
▪ Why do people visit
Low (10 AM - 1 PM and 3 PM - 4 PM) = 4 40% 32 (8*4)
Khan Market?
hours

TABLE 2
Brownie Points
Hours (Working hours 10 AM - 10 PM) Footfall Total

Peak (1 PM – 3 PM and 7 PM – 10 PM) = Every 3 mins one person enters = 20 100 (20*5)
▪ Avoiding double 5 hours people/hour
counting by
identification of Medium (4 PM - 7 PM) = 3 hours Every 10 mins one person enters = 6 18 (6*3)
overlap of people who people/hour
visit for shopping as
Low (10 AM - 1 PM and 3 PM - 4 PM) = 4 Every 15 mins one person enters = 4 16 (4*4)
well as dining
hours people/hour

NUMBER OF PEOPLE
Keep In Mind
No. Of Restaurants No. Of Shops
▪ It is important to state
all assumptions Occupancy Footfall
explicitly
Peak Hours Peak Hours
204