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Introduction To Probability 1st Edition Ward Solutions Manual 1

This document contains a summary of Chapter 5 from the textbook "Introduction to Probability 1st Edition" by Ward. It provides 19 examples that demonstrate how to apply Bayes' theorem to calculate conditional probabilities. The examples cover topics like determining the probability of owning a Honda given being in a safe car accident, the probability of enjoying a semester based on honors class enrollment, and the probability of two fruit juices being selected from different containers.

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451 views3 pages

Introduction To Probability 1st Edition Ward Solutions Manual 1

This document contains a summary of Chapter 5 from the textbook "Introduction to Probability 1st Edition" by Ward. It provides 19 examples that demonstrate how to apply Bayes' theorem to calculate conditional probabilities. The examples cover topics like determining the probability of owning a Honda given being in a safe car accident, the probability of enjoying a semester based on honors class enrollment, and the probability of two fruit juices being selected from different containers.

Uploaded by

lester
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to Probability 1st Edition

Ward

Full download at link: https://testbankpack.com/p/solution-


manual-for-introduction-to-probability-1st-edition-ward-
gundlach-0716771098-9780716771098/

Chapter 5. Bayes’ Theorem


5.1 We are told P (Honda) = 0.12 and P (safe | Honda) = 0.98, so P (safe and Honda) =
(0.12)(0.98) = 0.1176. P (Honda | safe) = 0.1176/0.72 = 0.1633.

5.2 P (fully enjoying) = P (enjoying and an Honors class) + P (enjoying and no Honors class).
Because the probability of “fully enjoying the semester” depends on whether the student is
talking an Honors class, we have P (fully enjoying) = (0.99)(0.20) + (0.30)(0.80) = 0.438.
P (Honors | enjoying) = (0.99)(0.2)/0.438 = 0.4521.

5.3 We want P (hound | stubborn). P (hound and stubborn) = (0.2)(0.9) = 0.18. We were also
told that 30% of dogs in general are stubborn, so P (hound | stubborn) = 0.18/0.30 = 0.60.

5.4 We want P (iPod | defective), and were told that 7% of all mp3 players are defective. We
need P (iPod and defective) = P (iPod) P (defective | iPod) = (0.80)(0.05) = 0.04. The result is
then P (iPod | defective) = 0.04/0.07 = 0.5714.

5.5 We want P (math or statistics), and have been told P (chalkboard) = 0.83, P (dry-erase) =
0.17, P (math | chalkboard) = 0.75, P (computer science | chalkboard) = 0.15, P (statistics |
chalkboard) = 0.10. Further, P (math | dry-erase) = 0.08, P (computer science | dry-erase) =
0.65, and P (statistics | dry-erase) = 0.27. P (math) = P (math and chalkboard) + P (math and
dry-erase), and statistics is similar. Further, classes are not both math and statistics, so P (math
or statistics) = (0.75)(0.83) + (0.08)(0.17) + (0.10)(0.83) + (0.27)(0.17) = 0.765.

5.6 We were told P (good at art) = 0.10, P (good at math | good at art) = 0.40, P (good at math |
not good at art) = 0.30. We want P (good at art | good at math). From what we were told,
P (good at math) = (0.40)(0.10) + (0.30)(0.90) = 0.31 and P (good at math and art) =
(0.40)(0.10) = 0.04. Therefore, P (good at art | good at math) = 0.04/0.31 = 0.1290.

5.7 We were told P (iPod | first-year) = 0.47, P (first-year) = 0.32, and P (iPod | upperclass) =
0.562. a. From this, we calculate P (iPod) = (0.47)(0.32) + (0.562)(1 – 0.32) = 0.5326.
b. P (upperclass | iPod) = (0.562)(1 – 0.32)/0.5326 = 0.7175. c. P (upperclass | no iPod) = (1 –
0.562)(1 – 0.32)/(1 – 0.5326) = 0.6372.
5.8 a. P (smoke detector | fatality) = (0.82)(0.07)/0.22 = 0.2609 b. We want P (fatality | no
smoke detector). We can find this because P (fatality) = 0.22 = P (no smoke detector and
fatality) + P (smoke detector and fatality) = (0.18) P (fatality | no smoke detector) +
(0.82)(0.07), or 0.22 = 0.18 P (fatality | no smoke detector) + 0.0574. Solving, P (fatality | no
0.22 −0.0574
smoke detector) = = 0.9033.
0.18
5.9 P( A) = (0.5)(0.25) + (0.5)(1/ 6) = 0.20833. a. P(H | A) = (0.5)(0.25) / 0.20833 = 0.6. b.

P(T | A) = (0.5)(1/ 6) / 0.20833 = 0.4. These do add to 1.

5.10 P (enjoy French class) = (0.4)(0.7) + (0.3)(0.8) + (0.2)(0.85) + (0.1)(0.9) = 0.28 + 0.24 +
0.17 + 0.09 = 0.78. The desired probabilities are the summands divided by the sum. P (level 1 |
enjoy French class) = 0.28/0.78 = 0.3590, P (level 2 | enjoy) = 0.24/0.78 = 0.3077, P (level 3 |
enjoy) =0.17/0.78 = 0.2179, and P (level 4 | enjoy) =0.09/0.78 = 0.1154. Note that the sum of
these conditional probabilities is 1.

5.11 a. We want P (female | changed major) = (0.4)(0.1)/0.3 = 0.1333. b. Here, we need to solve
0.3 = (0.4)(0.1) + (0.6) P (changed major | male) = 0.04 + (0.6) P (changed major | male). P
(changed major | male) = 0.26/0.6 = 0.4333, or 43.4%.

5.12 We first need P (engineering) = 0.2(0.8 + 0.52 + 0.74 + 0.67 + 0.29) = 0.604. P (fourth
floor | engineering) = (0.2)(0.67)/0.604 = 0.2219.

5.13 P (at least one girl) = 1/3 because we have eliminated the possibility of BB from the four
possible outcomes (BB, BG, GB, GG). P (both girls | at least one girl) = 0.25/0.75 = 1/3.
5.14 Given the blue die has an odd value and they sum to 4, we must have either (1, 3) or (3, 1).
Knowing the blue die has an odd value means the sample space has been reduced to 18 possible
outcomes, so the probability is 2/18 = 1/9 = 0.1111.

5.15 The blue die being four or smaller means the number of possible outcomes is 24 ((1, 1), (1,
2), , (4, 6)). To have a sum of 7 or larger, we must have (ordered as blue, red) (1, 6), (2, 5), (2,
6), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), or (4, 6). P (sum is 7 or larger | blue is 4 or less) =
10/24 = 0.4167.

5.16 P (system operates correctly) = P (first fuse works) + P (second works and first did not) =
0.9 + (0.1)(0.95) = 0.995.

5.17 a. P (dry) = (0.48) + 0.09 + 0.14 = 0.71 b. P (rainy day) = 1 – 0.71 = 0.29.
c. P (sunny | dry) = 0.48/0.71 = 0.6761 d. P (dry | sunny) = 1 e. P (cloudy | rainy) = 0.25/0.29 =
0.8621, because we were told P (cloudy and dry) = 0.14. 0.14 + P (cloudy and rainy) = 0.39. f.
P (rainy | cloudy) = 0.25/0.39 = 0.6410.
5.18 The probability of getting heads for the first time on the n th toss is 0.5n. The probability of

not getting a “1” in n tosses of a die is (5 / 6)n . The probability of both of these happening is
0.5n (5 / 6)n .

5.19 P (two fruit juices) = P (container A and two fruit juices) + P (container B and two fruit
juices) = (1/2)(2/5)(1/4) + (1/2)(2/4)(1/3) = 1/20 + 1/12 = 0.1333.

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