VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 1

Theme Number(s): 7

A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope

Stability

Jun Lim Wong1, and Min Lee Lee1[0000-0003-3773-9645], Fang Yenn Teo1[0000-0002-5529-1381]
and Kian Wah Liew1[0000-0001-9102-8962]
1 Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Malaysia, 43500 Selangor,
Malaysia
[email protected]

Abstract. Climate change has become an increasingly pressing issue that needs
to be tackled by scientists and researchers around the globe in recent years. How-
ever, huge uncertainties are still associated with climate change and its impacts
on our world as it is extremely difficult to quantify the effects of climate change.
It is important to study the impact of climate change on slope stability in order to
ensure that existing slopes and their design standards are able to accommodate
the changes in environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature under cli-
mate change. The main objective of this paper is to review the relationship be-
tween rainfall variations under climate change and its impacts on slope stability.
This review study revealed that there are still not many studies investigating the
direct impacts of climate change on slope stability, particularly in the tropical
regions which receive intense monsoon rainfalls. Changes in extreme weather
events under climate change have also resulted in development of desiccated
cracks in soil. Studies have shown prolonged drying and intensified rainfall
across various regions in which these phenomena would greatly affect the extent
of cracks development in soil under repetitive wet-dry cycles. Consequently, this
would result in excessive infiltrations into soil slope during intense rainfall peri-
ods.

Keywords: Climate change, slope stability, rainfall pattern, infiltration, desic-

cated crack

1 Introduction

In recent years, climate change has attracted the interest of many researchers around
the world. Global warming is one of the phenomena associated with climate change.
The assessment of the impact of climate change on the environment is essential for
policy makers to make the best decisions for preserving our natural environment. Cli-
mate change is unequivocal but few have studied the impact that climate change has on
the stability of slope. Engineered and natural slopes are threatened by climate variabil-
ity as it leads to changes in the occurrence of extreme events, which is one of the pri-
mary causes of geo-hydrological hazards such as landslides. Therefore, it is extremely
2 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

important to evaluate the impact of climate change on slopes to help decision makers
and engineers in mitigating the damages that could be incurred from the hazards.

A landslide can be defined as the movement of debris, rock or earth down a slope,
caused by gravity. Both engineered and natural slopes are affected by this mass wasting
process. Landslides include various types of movements such as falling, sliding, spread-
ing, flowing or toppling. In fact, a combination of these movements can be found in
many landslides either simultaneously or during its lifetime. Landslides can occur an-
ywhere and plays a major role in the evolution of landscape.

The stability of a slope can be affected by various phenomena such as temperature,

earthquake, rainfall, anthropogenic causes etc. These phenomena are affected by cli-
mate change, particularly temperature and precipitation (Dhakal and Sidle, 2004; Sidle
and Ochiai, 2006; Crozier, 2010). However, there are still very limited studies on quan-
tifying the impact that climate change has on slope stability. This paper aims to provide
a detailed review on the impacts of climate change on slope stability through current
available literature. Firstly, the potential factors that may affect the phenomenon of cli-
mate change is reviewed, followed by quantifying the impacts of climate change on
rainfall and temperature which constitute two important factors in inducing slope insta-
bility. Subsequently, various prediction models for temporal rainfall and temperature
variations are reviewed. Lastly, the impacts of rainfall infiltration and temperature var-
iation amidst the climate change phenomenon on the stability of slope are evaluated.

2 Factors Affecting Climate Change

Maracchi and Baldi (2006) found a rise of approximately 1°C in the mean global air
temperature since 1860. They concluded that the 20th century is the warmest in the last
10 centuries, with the warmest decade of the century identified as the 1990’s. During
the period of 1990-2100, a rise of 1.5-6.0°C in the air temperature was estimated (IPCC,
2001). Global Climate Models have projected an air temperature increase of 1.5°C in
the next century but this prediction is plagued by the uncertainties which are internal to
the models.

Historical climate change was found to be caused by natural factors, such as the
variations in the orbital parameters of earth (Milankovitch Theory), or due to the natural
alterations in the composition of the atmosphere, conductive to either cooling or warm-
ing of the atmosphere (Maracchi and Baldi, 2006). Warming of the atmosphere can be
caused by greenhouse gases whilst the release of natural aerosols due to volcanic activ-
ities can have long term warming or short-term cooling effects. However, it is very
challenging to predict the impacts that these natural factors have. The complexity of the
climatic system, which is different from other natural systems result in large uncertain-
ties because tiny changes can have significant effects due to the complex feed-back
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 3

mechanisms and non-linear variability of the climatic system. For instance, it is clear
that aerosols and greenhouse gases will cause climate change but the quantification of
the effects they have on the climate is difficult.

Ding et al. (2007) carried out a study in China on the causes of regional climate
change using climate models with the consideration of various forcings. They suggested
that the warming of the past 50 years could be caused by the increase of atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases, while temperature change of the first half of the
20th century could be caused by solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface tem-
perature change. Their review suggested that a significant decline in sunshine duration
and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China had been attributed to the increased
emission of pollutants. Anthropogenic climate change will likely lead to a weaker win-
ter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia according to their studies.
Ding et al., (2007) assessed the causes of climate change considering both radiative and
anthropogenic forcings. Radiative forcing can be described as the difference between
the sunlight that is absorbed by earth and the energy that is radiated back to space. On
the other hand, anthropogenic forcing can be described as the consequences of human
activities. Major methods of detection for attributing reasons for climate change are
multiple climate models and numerical-statistic methods based on observed data (Wang
and Shi, 2001; Zhao et al., 2005a,b; Luo et al., 2005; Ding et al., 2006). Results show
that almost all the models with the various human emission scenarios simulate the
warming trend in China for the 20th century to a reasonable degree, especially the ob-
vious warming trend over the last 50 years. This suggests that anthropogenic forcings
play a huge part in climate change. This conclusion agrees with that of IPCC (2001). A
different study by Zhou and Yu (2006) which includes all radiative forcings by 19
global climate system models, two of which are from China, attempted to simulate the
annual mean temperature anomaly changes in China for the 20th century. The radiative
forcings considered included changes in solar radiation, volcanic activity, greenhouse
gases, sulfate aerosols, black carbon, ozone, land use/vegetation changes, and others
(Zhou and Yu, 2006; Zhou and Zhao, 2006). The correlation coefficient obtained from
this study was better than when only human emissions were used, which implied that
solar and volcanic activity, as well as the interactions between air and sea, could play a
part in the temperature change in China during the first half of 20th century. Based on
the findings from Zhao and Yu (2006), Zhao et al. (2005a), Zhao et al. (2005b), and
Ding et al. (2006), it can be summarized that the observed and simulated evidences of
climate change in China of 20th century have been attributed to anthropogenic activity.

Baum et al. (2011) provided an assessment of the evidence of anthropogenic causes

on climate change. A decline in temperature was found in the global temperature record
between 1940 and 1975 despite the fact that there was a rise of greenhouse gas concen-
trations. Nonetheless, it is undeniable that the general increase in temperature is pri-
marily caused by greenhouse gases. The effect of sulfur emissions on global tempera-
ture was highlighted in the study by Baum et al. (2011). Sulfate aerosols produced by
sulfur emissions can have a cooling effect on the surface of earth since it reflects
4 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

additional solar radiation back into space. It was found that thin clouds have a warming
effect on while thick clouds tend to cool the surface of earth by reflecting solar radiation
back to space (Grenci and Nese 2006). Global warming increases the rates of evapora-
tion resulting in more thin and thick clouds. Hence, clouds add to the uncertainty in the
projection of temperature changes. Previous studies have presented evidences to prove
that the climate is changing and anthropogenic causes play a huge part in climate
change. These fundamental findings cannot be disproved even though there are large
uncertainty about climate change.

Matteis (2019) provided an overview of the anthropogenic causes of climate change.

It is widely agreed among climate scientists that human activity is the primary driving
force of global warming. The statement from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) stating that “human influence has been the dominant cause of the ob-
served warming since the mid-twentieth century” supports this consensus among the
scientists (Stocker et al., 2014; Cook et al., 2016). The results from Matteis’s (2019)
study showed that the negative impacts that the growing luxurious lifestyle and demo-
graphic pressure have on greenhouse forcings are far more significant in comparison
with the effort to reduce greenhouse forcings through technological progress. As a mat-
ter of fact, it was found in the research on the driving forces of climate change that
models that only consider the natural causes of climate change were not able to simulate
the historical global warming while models that include human activities that produce
greenhouse gases are able to better simulate the historical warming. Hence, it can be
concluded that human activity is one of the primary driving forces of climate change.

The causes of global and regional changes of climate was investigated by Loginov
(2014). The highest positive temperature anomalies were observed during periods of
low aerosol pollution: 1883-1902, 1933-1942 and 1993-2012. On the other hand, re-
sults showed that the largest negative temperature anomalies coincide with the middle
of the period of the largest aerosol pollution: 1973-1982. During the period between
1983 and 2002, the highest positive temperature anomalies in January-February corre-
sponded with a significant increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. The
warmest 5 year-long summer periods were also found to coincide with a period of low
aerosol pollution. In recent years, extremely warm 5 year-long summer and winter
epochs were found to correspond to the radiation effects of greenhouse gases and aer-
osols.

Stern and Kaufmann (2013) examined the anthropogenic and natural causes of cli-
mate change and found that both natural and anthropogenic factors play a part in tem-
perature change which led to changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases. It was
evident that greenhouse gases and volcanic activity had significant effects on tempera-
ture change while black carbon was found to have no effect on temperature change.
The impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols was over estimated, and changes in solar
irradiance did not have a significant effect on temperature change (Boucher and Pham
2002). The results reported in this study also showed that properly specified tests of
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 5

Ganger causality validate the consensus that human activity is partially responsible for
the observed rise in global temperature and that this rise in temperature also has an
effect on the global carbon cycle. Table 1 summarizes the factors affecting climate
change as reported by numerous researchers at different parts of the world.

Table 1. Summary of factors affecting climate change.

Factors Study Reference
Area
Natural factors such as variations in orbital Europe Maracchi and Baldi
parameters of earth, natural alterations in (2006)
composition of atmosphere and release of
aerosols due to volcanic activities.

Anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse Europe Maracchi and Baldi

gases. (2006)

Anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse China Ding et al., (2007)

gases

Natural factors including solar activity, vol- China Ding et al., (2007)
canic eruptions and sea surface temperature
change

Greenhouse gases and sulfur emissions Global Baum et al., (2011)

Human activity and natural factors Global Matteis (2019)

Aerosol pollution and greenhouse gases Global V. F. Loginov

(2014)

Greenhouse gases, volcanic activity, black Global Stern and Kauf-

carbon, sulfate aerosols and changes in so- mann (2013)
lar irradiance

3 Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall and Temperature

Loo et al. (2015) investigated the effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia
and its impacts on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. A decreasing
trend of temperature was observed during the period of 1945-1973 (Brohan et al.,
2006). Since then, temperature has been increasing as a result of climate change. The
chances of rainfall is reduced when there is a rise in temperature because rainfall occurs
when the temperature is low. An increase in temperature results in lower rainfall fre-
quency but increased rainfall intensity. A rise in temperature was predicted in the late
21st and 22nd century by Schewe and Levermann (2012). Ashfaq et al., (2009) sug-
gested that this caused the delay of the monsoon onset in future. Increases in the
6 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

intensity of rainfall were observed in Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries,
which is a key factor in the occurrence of landslides and flooding events (Billa et al.,
2004).

Changes to precipitation and temperature of Alberta for historical and future periods
were examined by Jiang et al. (2015). Climate data of Alberta was used to examine
historical trends as well as the magnitude of these trends through Mann-Kendall test
and Sen’s slope. The effects that climate change may potentially have on the tempera-
ture and precipitation of Alberta were evaluated using General Circulation Models
(GCMs). It was found from the results that Alberta became warmer and drier during
the period of 1900-2011, particularly the southern and central Alberta. General Circu-
lation Models projected a change from -25 to 36% in the seasonal precipitation of Al-
berta as well as an increase in temperature between 2020 and 2080. The peak of the
increase, which is 6.8°C was found in December, January and February. Increased pre-
cipitations in January, February, March, April, May and December were projected by
the GCMs. The projection results indicated a constant increase in temperature for all
seasons. These projections agreed to the historical trends of temperature and precipita-
tion.

Sharma and Goyal (2020) examined the changes in temperature, precipitation and
climate extremes in the Teesta River basin in Eastern Himalayas between 1951 and
2100. Their study adopted four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Repre-
sentative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected and observed cli-
mates both showed substantial changes in temperature, precipitation and climate ex-
treme patterns. Their results indicated increases in both temperature and precipitation.
F1, F2 and F3 were used to represent three periods of the projected period: F1 (2011-
2040), F2 (2041-2070) and F3 (2070-2100). There was an increase of 225 mm, 283 mm
and 385 mm in the mean annual precipitation (MAP) of F1, F2 and F3 respectively
under the RCP4.5 scenario. On the other hand, the MAP of F1, F2 and F3 increased by
160 mm, 418 mm and 751 mm respectively under the RCP8.5 scenario. It was also
found that the mean daily maximum temperature increased by 0.46 °C, 0.90 °C, 1.13
°C for F1, F2 and F3 respectively under RCP4.5. An increase of 0.54 °C, 1.18 °C and
1.92 °C was found in the mean daily maximum temperature for F1, F2 and F3 respec-
tively under RCP8.5. It is likely that there will be increased precipitation in both non-
monsoon and monsoon seasons. Nonetheless, a lot of uncertainties surround these pro-
jections. The results in this study is similar to the results of existing studies in and
around the same study area.

Rana et al., (2014) used Distribution-based Scaling of Global Climate Model pro-
jections to examine the effect of climate change on rainfall in Mumbai. The rainfall
statistics for three different periods were used in this study: near (2010-2040), interme-
diate (2041-2070) and distant future (2071-2099). An increased total accumulated an-
nual rainfall was found in the results. An average increase of 140 mm was found for
the near future projections. Meanwhile, projections for the intermediate future showed
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 7

an increase of 300 mm. Lastly, an increase of 420 mm was projected for the distant
future period. Numerous studies revealed that the global warming caused by green-
house gases will likely to increase the intensity of monsoon rainfall across a large region
including South Asia (Lal et al., 2000; May, 2002, 2004, 2011; Meehl and Arblaster,
2003; Rupakumar et al., 2006). A small average increase of approximately 5% com-
pared to 1990 in the summer precipitation of 2090 was projected in the study of IPCC
(2007) using the ensemble mean of General Circulation Model projections. Nonethe-
less, it should be noted that this small change in the average is a result of the large
negative and positive changes in each projection. Rana et al. (2014) concluded their
study by recommending the use of multiple projections because a single projection is
not enough to inform an efficient adaptation strategies.

Abdulla (2020) attempted to project the precipitation and temperature in Jordan un-
der 21st century climate change. The future and business as usual (BAU) climate sce-
narios were simulated using maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean tem-
perature and precipitation time series at selected eight climatic stations. Trend analysis
of the precipitation time series from the majority of the stations revealed decreasing
trends since the 1960s. Increasing trends were observed for temperature with the in-
crease in minimum temperature more than that of the maximum temperature. An in-
crease in temperature from about +2.5°C to +5°C by the end of century was found from
the recent projections of global climate changes following a rise in the concentrations
of greenhouse gases. Existing studies of climate change in Jordan revealed that the rate
of increase in minimum temperature was almost double compared to the rate of increase
in maximum temperature. Results showed that changes in precipitation and rate of
warming varied across different regions on earth. General Circulation Model is adopted
with statistical downscaling model to project future rainfall and temperature for eight
locations in Jordan between 2015 and 2099. The projections showed a reduction of
approximately 10% to 37% in the annual precipitation.

Ibrahim et al., (2013) used 5 regional climate models to simulate the changes in
rainfall attributed to climate change in Burkina Faso. The projection of the change in
annual rainfall was associated with large uncertainties, which is similar to other climate
models. Nonetheless, certain features of the effect of climate change on rainfall were
found to be robust in this study. The projections showed a decline of 3% in the number
of low rainfall events (0.1-5 mm per day) and an average increase of 15% in the number
of strong rainfall events (more than 50 mm per day). All projections indicated a one-
week delay of the rainy season onset on average and it was widely agreed that the dry
spells would lengthen by approximately 20%.

Gunawardhana et al. (2018) attempted to quantify the changes in frequency and in-
tensity of hourly extreme rainfall under climate change in Oman. The annual maximum
hourly rainfall in Salalah, Oman for two future periods: 2040-2059 and 2080-2099 were
projected using the temporal disaggregation and spatial downscaling technique. The
projections indicated a decline of about 20% in the number of wet days while the annual
8 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

total rainfall was expected to increase by about 44% and 17% in the periods of 2040-
2059 and 2080-2099, respectively. The extreme rainfall distribution was likely to be
affected by these changes, resulting in more intense and frequent extreme events in
future. In addition, the rainfall regime was expected to intensify more towards the end
of 21st century. Table 2 summarizes the quantitative changes in rainfall and tempera-
ture from the foregoing reported studies.

Table 2. Summary of quantitative changes in rainfall and temperature.

No. Authors Changes in rainfall Changes in Tem- Loca-

perature tion of
study
1 Vincent et al. (2012) - Temperature in- South-
crease in spring and ern
winter ranging from Canada
2 °C to 5 °C for min-
imum temperature
and 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C
for maximum tem-
perature
2. Jiang et al. (2015) An increase of 20% in Temperature is in- Al-
precipitation between creased by 4.4 °C be- berta,
2011 and 2100. tween 2011 and 2100 Canada
based on projections.
3. Sharma and Goyal Maximum 1-day precip- Maximum and mini- Hima-
(2019) itation increase by 1.11 mum daily tempera- layan
mm, 9.53 mm and 17.37 tures are projected to Region,
mm for 2010-2040, increase by 0.54 °C India
2041-2070, and 2071- and 1.18 °C (2011-
2100, respectively 2040), 1.92 °C and
0.5 °C (2041-2070)
and 1.2 °C and 2 °C
(2071-2100) respec-
tively.
4. Singh and Goyal - All projections indi- Sikkim,
(2016) cated an increase in India
temperature ranging
from 1.5-2.0 °C in
Sikkim Himalayas
5. Abdulla (2020) A reduction in annual An increase in tem- Jordan
precipitation ranging perature by 2.5 to 5
from 10 to 37%. °C by the end of cen-
tury
6. Ibrahim et al. (2013) A decline of 3% in the Dry spells were ex- Burkina
number of low rainfall pected to lengthen by Faso
events and an increase 20%.
of 15% in the number of
strong rainfall events.
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 9

7. Gunawardhana(2018) A decline of about 20% - Oman

in the number of wet
days. Annual total rain-
fall was expected to in-
crease by about 44% and
17% in the periods of
2040-2059 and 2080-
2099, respectively

4 Prediction of Rainfall and Temperature Patterns

There are various phenomena that can affect the stability of slopes and trigger landslide
events. These phenomena include change in temperature, earthquake, snow melt, vol-
canic activity, precipitation and other human activities. Climate change have conse-
quences on these phenomena, particularly temperature and precipitation. Hence, the
development of accurate and effective methods to project future temperature and rain-
fall scenarios under climate change is crucial. In general, there are two types of forecast
models: data driven models and physical models. Historical data combined with statis-
tical and computational intelligence methods are employed in data driven models for
prediction, while physical models simulate the physical process according to the phys-
ical laws. Results from comparative studies suggest that data driven models are capable
of producing better predictions when compared to physical models (Abbot and Maro-
hasy, 2012, 2014).

There are various types of data driven forecast models, the most commonly used
models are multiple linear regression (MLR), clusterwise linear regression (CLR), sup-
port vector machines for regression (SVMreg), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and
principal component analysis (PCA). Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is the most
popular model employed for rainfall projection. They are powerful and flexible data
modelling tools that can capture and represent complex relationships of the data being
modelled. In recent years, researchers have begun to investigate the potential of Artifi-
cial Neural Networks (ANNs) as a tool for simulation of behavior of systems that are
governed by nonlinear multivariate, generally unknown, interconnections within a
noisy, less-controllable physical environment. A significant growth in the interest of
this computational mechanism has occurred since Rumelhart et al. (1986) developed a
mathematically rigorous theoretical framework for neural networks. The use of ANNs
in the engineering and science field has increased significantly ever since a mathemat-
ically rigorous theoretical framework for neural networks was developed by Rumelhart
et al. (1986).

Khalili et al. (2011) predicted the daily rainfall of Mashad’s synoptic station in Iran
using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The study adopted ANNs because the neural
networks are capable of extracting system features intelligently, even when there is
10 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

10

limited information about the system dynamics. The model was implemented using
three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm. The
mean absolute error, correlation coefficient and root mean square error obtained from
the performance statistical analysis for the proposed models showed that the approach
used to forecast daily rainfall in this study was effective. Abbot and Marohasy (2014)
adopted the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model to forecast rainfall in Queens-
land, Australia. Three measures of forecast accuracy were used to compare the projec-
tions produced by ANNs and the forecasts obtained from the Predictive Ocean Atmos-
phere Model for Australia (POAMMA). POAMMA is a General Circulation Model
(GCM) adopted currently to predict the seasonal rainfall in Australia. The comparison
showed that ANNs outperformed the POAMMA by having lower Mean Absolute Error
(MAE), Correlation Coefficients as well as Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). It was
found that ANN was a more skilled forecast compared to climatology given that the
input selection for ANN was optimized.

Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a data driven model based upon statistical learn-
ing theory (Vapnik, 1998). Original data is mapped into a high dimensional feature
space with a non-linear mapping function followed by the construction of an optimal
hyperplane (Collobert and Bengjo, 2001; Smola and Schoelkopf, 1998). Lin et al.
(2013) used the SVM to obtain a forecasting model for hourly rainfall in Taiwan. Input
optimization step integrating multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) was used with
the SVM to determine the optimal input combination. This was followed by obtaining
the spatial characteristics of the rainfall process by using the rainfall projection from
the stations. It can be concluded from the results that the forecasting performance was
significantly improved and the negative effects of increased forecast lead time was re-
duced through the use of this forecast model.

The multiple linear regression (MLR) method is rarely used to project future rainfall.
MLR is the extension of a simple linear regression model which predicts dependent
variable by using at least two independent variables through the least squares method.
El-Shafie et al., (2011) adopted Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and Multiple
Linear Regression (MLR) model in their study for rainfall prediction. The results pro-
duced by these two models were evaluated using statistical parameters such as MAE
(Mean Absolute Error), BIAS, CC (Correlation Coefficient) and RMSE (Root Mean
Square Error). It was concluded that the ANN model produced better results in com-
parison with the MLR model. This was attributed to the inability of the MLR model to
produce accurate predictions for a variable involving highly nonlinear physics due to
the linear nature of the MLR model estimators. Dutta and Tahbilder (2014) imple-
mented the MLR model for rainfall forecasting in their study. The results of their study
indicated a 63% accuracy in the rainfall forecasts produced by the MLR model.
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 11

11

The clusterwise linear regression (CLR) approach involves two types of technique:
regression and cluster analysis. The number of clusters as well as the regression coef-
ficients for each cluster are estimated in the CLR method. Various algorithms have been
developed in an attempt to solve the CLR problem. These algorithms are based on op-
timization technique (Bagirov et al., 2013, 2015a,b), data mining technique (Spath,
1979), and statistical technique (Desarbo and Cron, 1988; Gaffney and Smyth, 1999;
Garcia-Escudero et al., 2010). Bagirov et al. (2017) adopted the CLR method for fore-
casting monthly rainfall in Victoria, Australia. Rainfall data from eight different
weather stations between 1889 and 2014 was used along with five input meteorological
variables for the prediction. Four measures of forecast accuracy were used in the com-
parison of the predicted and observed rainfall in order to evaluate the performance of
the CLR approach. These measures of forecast accuracy include the mean absolute
scaled error, the coefficient of efficiency, the mean absolute error and the root mean
squared error. The model used in this study was also compared with other methods such
as the artificial neural networks, CLR using maximum likelihood framework by the
expectation-maximization algorithm, support vector machines and multiple linear re-
gression. The comparison revealed that the CLR approach adopted in this study per-
formed better than the other methods.

Poorani and Brindha (2013) employed the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ap-
proach in their study to predict rainfall in India. It was found from their results that the
PCA has an edge over ANN in the analysis of climatic time series, especially in terms
of the interpretability of the extracted signals. The proposed PCA method was recom-
mended when there was vital inter-correlation between the predictors. The PCA model
was capable of avoiding the inter-correlation and support to reduce the degrees of lib-
erty by controlling the number of predictors.

Zainudin, Jasim and Bakar (2016) evaluated and compared the performances of sev-
eral different data mining technique for rainfall prediction in their paper. The tech-
niques that were evaluated in their paper were Decision Tree, Neural Network, Random
Forest, Support Vector Machine and Naïve Bayes. The dataset between January 2010
and April 2014 used by these techniques for rainfall forecasting were obtained from the
Malaysia Meteorological Department and Malaysia Drainage and Irrigation Depart-
ment. The dataset consisted several variables such as rainfall, relative humidity, tem-
perature, river flow and water level. Results of the study showed that Random Forest
and Decision Tree were the best performing models due to their ability to forecast
higher portion of data with higher F-measure while trained on little data. It was also
concluded that Neural Network can be an effective technique but a large amount of
training data is required for Neural Network to predict little testing data.
12 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

12

Gupta and Ghose (2015) carried out a comparative analysis of different rainfall pre-
diction methods such as Neural Network, K-nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes and Re-
gression Tree (CART). Experimental results showed an accuracy of 82.1% for the pre-
dictions produced by Neural Networks, 80.7% for K-nearest Neighbor, 80.3% for Re-
gression Tree (CART) and 78.9% for Naïve Bayes. It was concluded that Neural Net-
works produce the most accurate predictions among all the models. It was also found
that Neural Networks produced the best predictions with 10 neurons in hidden layer.
Neural Networks can also manage continuous and noisy values better compared to Re-
gression Tree. However, it can be tough and time consuming to decide the number of
neurons and train the network repeatedly. On the other hand, it is easier to understand
and implement Decision Trees and Naïve Bayes but it is costly and time consuming to
prune the tree, which requires intensive calculations.

5 Impacts of Changing Rainfall Patterns on Slope Stability

There are various factors that can destabilize a slope, such as land and surface erosion,
tensile cracking, seismicity, soil softening and fissuring, and soil desiccation. Nonethe-
less, landslides are usually attributed to dynamic processes, particularly significant
long-term and seasonal changes in rainfall pattern. Landslide rates may be accelerated
by the destabilizing factors mentioned earlier under extreme climatic conditions.
Changes in rainfall pattern can have serious consequences on the near-surface ground-
water field as well as soil moisture and strength. Deep-seated landslides are described
as slope failures associated with the movement of the underlying bedrock and surficial
mantle. These landslides can be impeded by the groundwater field directly (Coe and
Godt 2012). Deep seated landslides are usually sensitive to the extreme conditions of
hydraulic cycle. Hence, prolonged droughts can put a halt to deep seated landslides
through the increase of groundwater extraction which disrupts groundwater recharge
(Coe and Godt 2012). On the other hand, shallow landslides are described as transla-
tional slope failures which are several meters thick, consisting of poorly consolidated
soil mantle and underlying bedrock (Cascini et al., 2010: Lu et al., 2012). Climatic
factors which include antecedent rainfall, extreme rainfall events and rapid snowmelt
have immense impacts on the magnitude and frequency of shallow landslides (Sidle
2007: Melchiorre and Fratinni 2012). These landslides are described by two different
failure mechanisms, namely localized failures and diffused failures (Cascini et al.,
2010). Under diffuse failure mechanism, the soil is partially or fully undrained and has
very weak structures. As pore water pressure rises, the effective stress approaches zero.
On the contrary, the soil is drained under localized failure mechanism which is associ-
ated to transient localized pore-water pressures due to specific geological settings and
hydraulic boundary conditions (Cascini et al., 2013).

Numerous studies have examined the relationship between landslides and rainfall
variations but very little is known about the impacts of climate change on slope stabil-
ity. Although certain relationships between climate change and slope stability have
been ascertained, plenty of works are still needed to determine the magnitude and sign
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 13

13

of this correlation. After reviewing literatures on the relationship between climate

change and slope stability, it was found that existing studies only covered a small part
of the world. Investigations are still needed for many countries, particularly South
America, Africa and Asia. Landslides are expected to occur more often attributed to the
increased intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events under global warming. It
was stated in the IPCC special report that there is medium confidence that changes in
temperature will affect bed rock stability and there is high confidence that variations in
heavy rainfall will influence landslides in certain regions (Seneviratne et al., 2012).
According to Coe and Godt (2012), existing studies on the prediction of rainfall-in-
duced landslides are associated with large uncertainty because it is very difficult to
forecast short-term extreme storms. On the contrary, less uncertainties were found in
existing studies that used annual or seasonal rainfall and air temperature to predict land-
slide activities. This is attributed to the fact that annual or seasonal rainfall and air tem-
perature can be predicted more accurately.

Statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate models were employed by

Sangelantoni et al. (2018) to predict the variations of landslides frequency in eastern
Esino river basin, Central Italy. Their results of the comparison between historical and
future periods show a general increase in the landslide-triggering rainfall events. An
overall increase in landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century was projected.
The findings from Sangelantoni et al. (2018) showed good agreements with the findings
reported by numerous researchers, i.e. Jakob and Lambert (2009), Melchiorre and Frat-
tini (2012), and Turkington et al. (2016).

Infiltration of rainwater into hillslope changes its water content, pore pressure as
well as groundwater table. This affects the stability of slopes as it changes the total unit
weight, effective stress, suction stress and matric suction throughout the hillslope.
Wayllace et al., (2019) presented a study of the hydrological behavior and its effect on
slope stability of a seasonally active landslide on an embankment on Interstate-70 west
of the Eisenhower Tunnel. Results obtained through numerical modelling showed that
the difference between minimum and peak water table levels in the site may vary by
more than 100% depending on the seasonal hydrological conditions. During summer,
the pore water pressures near the failure surface were positive, and changed to negative
during winter. As a result, suction stresses as well as the factor of safety changed
throughout the year. The extended Bishop’s method of slices for variably saturated soil
was performed and it was found that the factor of safety ranged from 1.02 to 1.05 during
winter, early spring and fall but dropped to 0.989 during the beginning of summer,
indicating a possible failure.

Robinson et al. (2017) attempted to quantify the influence of extreme precipitation

events on slope stability. Climate models were used with a non-stationary approach to
simulate the upper bound of future rainfall extremes. The coupled model intercompar-
ison project phase 5 (CMIP5) was employed to predict future rainfall. The future and
historical rainfall extremes of an area around Seattle were collected, followed by the
integration of the rainfall patterns into a series of fully coupled 2D stress – unsaturated
14 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

14

flow finite element simulations. Soil strength and soil suction were reduced signifi-
cantly under intense rainfall as it accelerated the pore-water saturation of unsaturated
soils. It was found from the results of this study that the pore pressures of earth retaining
structures as well as engineered slopes may be escalated significantly under increased
rainfall intensity. As a result, slopes may be destabilized or active earth pressures be-
hind the wall of retaining structures may be increased. The mean of future rainfall ex-
tremes did not have a significant impact on the stability of slopes according to the model
employed in this study. Nonetheless, results from the model suggested that if the 95th
percentile of the predicted rainfall extremes were taken into account, existing mainte-
nance guidelines and infrastructure design should be reevaluated. It is vital that the
aforementioned rainfall extremes are considered in order to make sure that the addi-
tional load due to increased rainfall intensity can be safely supported by our structures.

Ran et al. (2018) examined the mechanisms of rainfall induced shallow landslides
through numerical modelling. An infinite slope stability model was integrated with hy-
drology model (InHM) to assess slope stability and simulate hydrologic response. Var-
ious failure mechanisms with different characteristics were examined under a variety
of rainfall scenarios. A novel mechanism of shallow landslides was reported from the
results. This mechanism can be described as a significant vertical change in saturated
hydrologic conductivity which causes the accumulation of infiltrated water, resulting
in the increase in pore pressures in unsaturated soil layer, and consequently causing
landslides. Furthermore, results showed that rainfall characteristics have immense im-
pact on the failure types and characteristics. A relationship between rainfall depths and
the failure types was discovered because the novel mechanism of shallow landslides
occurred at small total rainfall depths. Additionally, it was found that rainfall patterns
significantly influenced the failure time as landslides occurred earliest during intense
rainfall under every mechanism.

Iverson (2000) investigated the effect of rainfall infiltration on landslides. The re-
sponses of landslide to rainfall involved transient processes with varying intrinsic time-
scales. Results from a new model of these transient processes related slope failure and
landslide motion to groundwater pressure head which was affected by rainfall. Ad-
vanced rainfall can lead to a sudden pressure head growth and a slope failure, particu-
larly for shallow soils with high diffusivities. In these situations, normalized time pro-
ceeded quickly after rainfall started and the pressure head response function R increased
rapidly. On the contrary, slow landslides involved thick soil with a low hydraulic dif-
fusivity. Unlike landslides that occur abruptly, normalized time proceeded slowly for
slow landslides and the increase in pressure head function over a long period of time
was nearly negligible even under constant heavy rainfall. In such cases, prolonged ac-
celeration preceded any catastrophic movement and landslide occurred gradually.
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 15

15

6 Development of Desiccated Soil Cracks under Seasonal

Climate

Climate change can directly influence the frequency and duration of extreme weather
events. One of the most significant climate change phenomena is global warming,
which leads to increased rate of evaporation and surface drying. Consequently, the du-
ration and intensity of droughts may be increased. Additionally, an increase of approx-
imately 7% in the water-holding capacity of air was found per 1 °C increase in temper-
ature (Trenberth, 2011). As a result, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is in-
creased. Changes in the locations of rainfall events were also found which leads to wet
areas becoming wetter and dry areas becoming drier. These changes in extreme rainfall
events and droughts can have significant influences on the development of desiccated
soil cracks. Therefore, it is crucial that the present study review the development of
desiccated soil cracks under seasonal climate condition (wet-dry cycles).

Stirling et al. (2017) developed a pseudo-discrete continuum finite difference model

to examine the effect of soil properties such as hydraulic conductivity, soil-water reten-
tion and elastic modulus on the desiccation process and consequent crack initiation as
well as propagation pattern. The study also investigated the impact that projected
higher drying rates and seasonal drying-wetting cycles have on the development of
crack pattern to better understand progressive deterioration. It was found that as hy-
draulic gradient developed throughout the soil profile, tensile stress was generated by
drying induced negative pore pressures. Consequently, cracking initiated as the tensile
stress generated exceeded the tensile strength of soil. The propagation of existing cracks
occurred as the balance between material strength and stiffness increased under ongo-
ing drying, and the development of elevated suctions and associated tensile stress re-
sulted in strain localization. Their results also showed that desiccated crust that formed
under prolonged drying usually has a depth of less than 10 mm and can be distinguished
by its extremely low relative permeability and highly negative pore pressures. This
characteristic helped to hydraulically isolate the wetter layer immediately beneath, slow
down drying, and hence prevent infiltration. Increased run-off was expected during
high rainfall intensity summer as a result. The crust formation modelled showed that
by-pass flow to depth could be accelerated and the critical suctions that were crucial
for the stability of most geotechnical structures may dissipate as cracked in-situ soil
traps run-off. It was also found that drying rate affected both the timing of the initiation
and propagation of significant cracking as well as the final cracking extent before crust
formation. A greater degree of surface disintegration and more primary cracks were
found in higher drying rate scenarios. Hence, the projected rise in temperature was ex-
pected to accelerate the deterioration process of desiccation cracking.

Zhang et al. (2020) conducted a series of analyses to further understand the evolu-
tionary characteristics of shallow slope stability caused by rainwater infiltration con-
sidering desiccation crack extension states. Cracks in shallow slopes influenced slope
stability by increasing the soil infiltration capacity. It was found that increased soil in-
filtration capacity due to cracking combined with elevated rainfall intensity caused
16 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’

16

slope to become unstable in the case of unsaturated infiltration. Water migration was
influenced by the degree of soil cracking which further influenced the evolution of
slope stability under ponding infiltration conditions. Slope water saturation state during
rainfall infiltration was affected by rainfall conditions and crack development state
which will influence the evolution characteristics of the factor of safety at different
depths as a result. Rainwater infiltrated through tension fractures, erosional slits and
desiccation cracks in soil. Erosional slits developed due to rainwater erosion, as it cut
the soil and led to the formation of slits inside the slope. These slits acted as a channel
for rainwater infiltration, resulting in an uneven distribution of rainwater in soil. The
degree of soil cracking for desiccation crack varied with soil type and its water content.
It was observed from the results of physical experiments that void ratio was reduced as
water-tension generated a “compaction effect” on soil. Crack initiation occurred in the
soil when the tension exceeded soil bearing capacity. Once the desiccation cracks have
developed, they will further propagate due to environmental factors such as evaporation
and rainfall. Additionally, it was found that slope stability for unsaturated infiltration
approached critical values at various depths as the soil infiltration capacity increased
under more extensive crack development. In conclusion, the factor of safety for slope
stability approached unity quicker as extensive cracks developed in the soil.

Huang et al. (2018) used pores and crack image analysis system (PCAS), a crack
imaging processing software to study the development of surface cracks in expansive
soils with different compaction degree under wet-dry cycles. Expansive soils with dif-
ferent crack development degree were also tested for their shear strength. Results
showed that the degree of crack development increased progressively as the wet-dry
cycle times increased, before approaching a steady state. The degree of cracking de-
creased as the compaction degree increased. It was also found that as the compaction
degree increased, the cohesion of the specimen increased under the same amount of
wet-dry cycles. Additionally, crack block parameters and crack network parameters
were also found to be increasing as wet-dry cycles increase. The first wet-dry cycle
typically has more effect on the cracking. Thus, soil cover should be provided as soon
as possible during the filling of expansive soil embankment slope to reduce the effect
that water content change has on the cracking of expansive soil. A good linear relation-
ship between the cohesive force of expansive soil and the crack rate as well as fractal
dimension was also discovered. The measured crack parameters can be used to deter-
mine the shear strength parameters of soil.

7 Conclusions

Based on the reviews of previous studies pertaining to the topic climate change and
slope stability, it was found that large uncertainties are still associated with the studies
on climate change, particularly in quantifying the effects of climate change and predict-
ing future climate variations. Results from a number of studies have shown that rainfall
patterns are likely to change under climate change. Various techniques have been used
to project future rainfall. These techniques can be classified into two categories: data
 VCDRR2021, 506, v2: ’A Review of Impacts of Climate Change on Slope Stability ’ 17

17

driven and physical models. Data driven models include artificial neural network
(ANN), support vector machines for regression (SVMreg), clusterwise linear regression
(CLR), multiple linear regression (MLR), and principal component analysis (PCA)
while physical models include Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) has been widely used for rainfall prediction in existing studies with
proven reliabilities.

Several studies reported that the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme rainfall
events are undergoing changing patterns in the 21st century amidst the climate change.
Studies have also found that climate change has led to an increase in temperature which
will directly influence extreme weather events such as storms and droughts. The ex-
treme weather events have been identified as one of the major triggering factors to
landslides. However, there are still very limited studies reported explicitly on the im-
pacts of climate change on slope stability, particularly in the tropical regions which
receive intense monsoon rainfalls. Changes in extreme weather events under climate
change have also resulted in development of desiccated cracks in soil. Studies have
shown prolonged drying and intensified rainfall across various regions in which these
phenomena would greatly affect the extent of cracks development in soil under repeti-
tive wet-dry cycles. In conclusion, there is a pressing need to carry out an extensive
study to quantify the changes in rainfall pattern under climate change, investigate how
the extreme weather events affect the development of desiccated and rainfall infiltration
characteristics in soil, and hence the stability of the soil slope.

Acknowledgment

This study is funded by the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS), Malaysia,
Ref no.: FRGS/1/2019/TK01/UNIM/02/2. The first author would also like to thank
University of Nottingham Malaysia for providing full scholarship for his PhD study.

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