Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 49

1/2007

Róbert JANKOVÝCH
Jozef MAJTANÍK
SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART
Reviewer: Lubomír POPELÍNSKÝ

Abstract:
In this article is presented the using of shooting control chart during snipers´ shooting
practice. The proposed method of statistical control of snipers´ shooting is original and
according to the authors´ opinion it can contribute to the improvement of controlling military
and police snipers´ training.

1. Introduction

The current growth of the number of terrorist attacks requires:

the improvement of snipers’ training,
new methods of their training,
50 Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK Advances in MT
1/2007

new evaluation methods of snipers’ capability and readiness to reliably hit the
specified target anytime, as well as
statistical control of snipers´ shooting practice.

We are bringing a new method of statistical control of snipers´ shooting practice.

According to our opinion it can contribute to the improvement of controlling military
and police snipers´ training.

The sniper has to hit a live target by the first shot. The hit must be directed to a part of
body specified in advance. The firing is basically conducted in two ways:
firing intended to only wound the person and to restrict his/her movement or
other activities;
firing intended to reach the lethal effect by hitting vital parts of human body.

To enable the only shot to immediately stop the conscious activity of a live target, the
sniper must hit, if possible, the centre of muscular tension, movement co-ordination
and balance keeping. The size of this part of CNS can be limited by a circle 80 mm in
diameter [1].
The value of φ 80 mm represents the basic etalon for evaluating the accuracy of
sniper’s shooting (T = φ 80 mm).

2. Shooting process variability

During sniper’s shooting, a large number of factors influence the trajectory of the
projectile, which results in the fact that the point of hit does not fully correspond with
the target point.
Each shooting process shows a kind of variability, the source of which is, besides the
sniper, the weapon itself (sniper rifle), the cartridge used, as well as the importance of
the situation and the environment in which the shooting takes place (temperature, air
humidity, atmosphere optical qualities, wind speed and direction etc.) – see Figure 1.
 Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 51
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Sniper Sniper Rifle Munitions

40

30

20

10

Result of shooting process -40 -30 -20 -10

0
0 10 20 30 40
-10

-20

-30

-40

Sniperscope Relevance of situation Environment

Figure 1 Sources of shooting process variability

d
If we mark the coordinates of sniper’s hits from the distance d by symbols x and
d
d
y , we can determine the value of hit radius r (see Figure 2) that represents the
distance of the hit from the target point (centre of gravity of the prescribed target
area):
d
r= d
x2 +d y2 (1)

d
y
T = φ 80

d
x

target point

d
Figure 2. Hit radius r
52 Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK Advances in MT
1/2007

Variability of sniper’s shooting at the distance d is being determined by an interval in

which, with assigned probability, all values of sniper’s hits occur. If the shooting
process variability occurs in a normal distribution, we can determine the interval in
which, with assigned probability, all values of sniper’s hits occur by means of
d
multiples of standard deviation s r .

For the evaluation of sniper’s shooting process it is essential to determine the standard
d
deviation s r in such a way that each hit is evaluated as a result of sniper’s first shot.
In practice, we first of all determine the difference between the radii of two
d
consecutive first hits. We determine so-called moving range [3] for hit radii Rkl :

d
Rkl = d rl − d rl +1 , (2)

d
where rl is the radius of l-th hit at the distance d,
d
rl +1 is the radius of (l + 1th) hit at the distance d.

It means that firstly, after the second hit we subtract the second hit radius from the first
hit radius, then the third from the second etc. Using the average moving range we will
estimate the standard deviation of a certain sniper’s hit set from evaluated n hits:
d d
Rk Rk
d
sr = = , (3)
d2 1.128

where d2 is so-called Hartley’s conversion constant whose magnitude for moving

range of two values is 1.128 [3],
d
Rk is an average moving range calculated from the relation:
n −1

∑ d
Rkl
d
Rk = l =1
, (4)
n −1
where n is a number of hits.

In practice we can interpret the value of standard deviation in such a way that the
majority of hits does not deviate from the target point by more than one standard
d d
deviation sr . Low value of standard deviation sr means small variability of
 Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 53
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shooting and a high accuracy of sniper’s shooting. On the contrary, low variability
means a low accuracy of sniper’s shooting.

3. Shooting control chart

Target area (e.g. a target disc of 80 mm in diameter) as a source of information used in

training snipers and for deciding about their employment in the action is not quite
optimal. Data of practice target disc hits do not provide a satisfactory answer to a
question that is asked by the mission commander before making the decision: "does
the employment of just this sniper in a particular situation ensure a 100% fulfilment of
the task?" Evaluation of hit numbers from practice target discs of various types does
not give a precise answer to the degree of risk of failure in fulfilling the task by one
(the first) shot.
Sniper’s training must result in such capability of shooting when target hit is almost
certain. This can be achieved when shooting has a very low variability and is "centred"
to the target point. Practice organization must ensure all decisive factors that can affect
shooting accuracy (Figure 1) to be mastered by the shooter on such a level that no
factor can prove to be decisive (dominant) for the results of shooting.
It means that shooting dispersion may be influenced by a number of concrete reasons,
nevertheless, none of which may exceed the specifically significant degree that could
cause enhancement of shooting dispersion. In other words, the shooter must ensure
that all the factors participating in shooting accuracy in accordance with Figure 1
(sniper, weapon, ammunition, sniperscope, environment, and significance of the
situation) contribute in a degree that can be regarded, from the viewpoint of shooting
results, only as random effects.
A suitable tool for controlling shooting practice can be the shooting control chart
designed by the authors. The shooting control chart enables quickly to recognize and
identify changes (failures) in the process of sniper’s shooting.
The shooting control chart is a graphical representation of the process of shooting in
time (Figure 3).
Value of hit characteristic

UCL Upper Control Limit

3σ
CL
Centerline
3σ
LCL
Lower Control Limit

Number of shot

Figure 3 Principle of shooting control chart

54 Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK Advances in MT
1/2007

In the shooting control chart are recorded results of the sniper’s shooting (values of
hit) in a chronological sequence.
In the shooting control chart are also illustrated so called regulation limits. The
distance between upper control limit and lower (bottom) control limit defines a space
for inherent variability of sniper’s shooting.
In the shooting control chart the distance between both regulation limits is six standard
deviations of hit value (further only 6σ) and both regulation limits are 3σ from the
central line. The setting of regulation limits at the distance of ± 3σ ensures that
99.73 % of all hit values will be situated inside the regulation limits. It means that by
training a sniper reached a level where there is no influence of a dominant factor
which could negatively influence the result of his shooting. The influence of all the
factors affecting the hit can be regarded only as random.
If the hit value appears outside the regulation limits (see shot No 3), it is necessary to
take measures on the side of the shooter which decrease his variability of shooting. In
this case the influence of a shooting factor prevailed during sniper’s shooting. It is
necessary to disclose it and to eliminate its undesirable effect.
d
If we select hit radius r as a studied characteristic, the shooting control chart will be
d
formed by a pair of control charts – one chart for individual values of hit radius ri
d
and the second one for their moving range Rk i .

d
3.1 Shooting control chart for hit radius ri
d
Individual values of hit radius ri (i = 1, 2, ... n) are recorded into this type of
d
shooting control chart. The central line is therefore equal to arithmetic mean r of all
measured values.
n
d
∑ ri
CL d r = d r = i =1
. (5)
n
d
Upper and lower control limits for ri can be calculated from following relations [3]:

UCL d r = d r + 2,66 d Rk , (6)

LCL d r = d r − 2,66 d Rk , (7)

d
where Rk is an average moving range which can be calculated from relation (4).
Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 55
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d
3.2 Shooting control chart for moving range Rk i

Shooting control chart for moving range of hit radii is intended for showing the values
d
of individual moving ranges Rk i - relation (3) and tests the changes of variability of
sniper’s shooting during his/her training.
We can use relation (8) for determining upper control limit in the shooting control
chart for moving range:

UCL d R = 3,267 d Rk . (8)

k

d
The value of centre line CL d R equals the size of an average moving range R k which
k

can be calculated from relation (4).

Lower control limit for moving range is equal to zero [3]:

LCL d R = 0 . (9)
k

On the next page is shown a possible form of a sniper’s shooting control chart for
shooting evaluation during training.
Advances in MT

Table 1a
Shooting control chart

SHOOTING CONTROL CHART

Sniper: G Weapon:7.62 SVD No 522 Sniperscope:PSO-1 No 25522 Distance: 100 m
Ammunition: M59 Manufacturer: S&B Year: 2003 Range: L218 Stand: No 1
Series:27

Shooting control chart for hit radius

Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK

Radius
Hit
MAP VALUE

Shooting control chart for moving range

Moving
Range
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56
 Shooting parameters
57

Table 1b
Shoot Number Unit 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
100
parameters x mm -3 -1 15 21 23 5 -3 16 12 -7
100
y mm 17 -7 -10 2 3 8 11 3 7 -5
Hit

100
r mm 17.3 7.1 18.0 21.1 23.2 9.4 11.4 16.3 13.9 8.60
100
Rk mm - 10.2 11.0 3.1 2.1 13.8 2.0 4.9 2.4 5.3
SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART

Date (Year -
22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11
2006)
Time - 10:45 11:30 12:10 13:05 13:50 9:46 10:07 10:38 11:01 11:44
Distance 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Direction 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
o
Cartridge C 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11
Temp.
o
Outside Temp. C 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.4 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.4
Outside Humid. % 88 89 89 87 84 64 65 63 60 57
Dir - W W W W W SE SE SSE SE SSE
Win

Speed m.s-1 2.2 3.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 4.9 3.6 5.4 4.9 4.9
d

Run km 2.01 0.94 0.67 0.67 0.54 0.30 0.21 0.32 0.30 0.30
Solar Rad W.m-2 69 83 43 100 114 167 229 264 243 234
Solar Energy Lang. 1.48 0.59 0.31 0.72 0.82 0.24 0.33 0.38 0.35 0.34
Rain Rate mm.h- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1

Remedy - - - - - - direct. - - - -
Advances in MT

1/2007
Advances in MT

100 n 10 n −1
x = ∑ 100 x i = ∑ 100 x i = 7.8mm ∑
100
Rkl 40 − 100 r
Shooting Capability
100
cs = = 1.57 Table 1c
i =1 i =1 l =1
100
Rk = = 6.09mm 3.100 s r
Evaluation n −1
100 n 10
y = ∑ 100 y i = ∑ 100 y i = 2.9mm
i =1 i =1 100
Rk
100
sr = = 5.4mm
100 n 10 1,128
r = ∑ 100 ri = ∑ 100 ri = 14.63mm
i =1 i =1
Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK

Proposed without remedy measures – shooting process - capable

Measures
1/2007
58
Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 59
1/2007

In the bottom part of the shooting control chart (see above) is carried out an overall
evaluation of capability of shooting process within a given period (after 10 test shots)
100
by means of an index of sniper’s shooting capability cs [1]. The index of shooting
capability introduced by the authors enables to express by a single number the
capability of a sniper to hit the required target.
100
Sniper’s shooting capability index at the distance of 100 m cs , as the only number
for the evaluation of his/her shooting process capability, is defined by the following
relation [1]:

40 − 100 r
100
cs = , (10)
3.100 sr

100
where r is the average hit radius for the given distance of 100 m calculated from
relation:
n
100
∑ ri
100
r= i =1
. (11)
n

100
The value of cs d c s ≥ 1.00 means that the sniper is competent for the given task
d
and the value of c s < 1,00 expresses that the sniper is not competent for fulfilling the
given task (more in detail see [2]).

4. Possibilities of using the shooting control chart in training

The shooting control chart can be used as a suitable diagnostic tool for the assessment
of both stability and capability of the sniper’s shooting. Individual hits marked in the
shooting control chart represent sniper’s self-regulatory ability for the certain distance
shooting.
The shooting control chart of the practice shooting at the distance of 100 m of three
snipers is shown in the Figure 4.
 60 Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK Advances in MT
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Sniper „A“ Sniper „B“ Sniper „C“

30,0 30,0 30,0

25,0 25,0 25,0

20,0 20,0 20,0

5.
Hit

15,0 15,0 15,0

10,0 10,0 10,0

MAP VALUE

5,0 5,0 5,0

0,0 0,0 0,0

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
6.
Moving

25,0 25,0 7. 25,0

20,0 20,0 20,0

15,0 15,0 15,0

10,0 10,0 10,0

5,0 5,0 8. 5,0

0,0 0,0 0,0

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

Figure 4 Evaluation of sniper’s shooting process at the distance of 100 m

The best results have been achieved by the sniper "C". His shooting control chart
evidently demonstrates the lowest variability of all three snipers during the shooting
process. His/Her shooting process also shows necessary stability of shooting results,
which is demonstrated by his stable value trends in the shooting control chart (both for
hit radius and moving range). The values of hit radius are very low (in average less
than 5 mm). The standard deviation of hit radii for this sniper is extremely low (less
than 2 mm). The level of shooting capability of this sniper is several times higher than
that of the two other snipers.
Snipers "A" and "B" also achieve required shooting process capability at the distance
of 100 m. The values of hit radius are higher than those of the best sniper "C" (they are
not higher than 15 mm with sniper "B" and 10 mm with sniper "A"), but they are
situated inside control limits.
Sniper "C"´s shooting control chart demonstrates his/her perfect training and his
capability of eliminating almost all decisive factors that can affect shooting accuracy
at the given distance. These factors are mastered by the sniper on such a level that
none of them manifests itself as a dominant and decisive factor for shooting results. It
means that the shooting dispersion of sniper "C" may be influenced by a number of
specific factors – see Fig. 1, none of which is prevailing (dominant) and in shooting
process they show themselves only through random effects. The random effects are
demonstrated by means of the shooting control chart very well and clearly.
The shooting control chart also enables to demonstrate trends in individual snipers´
development in the course of training, e.g. their improvement or deterioration (up to
documenting the state that led to his/her expelling from training). In Fig. 5 is a sniper’s
shooting chart with a new ammunition.
 Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 61
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Hit Radius
MAP VALUE
Moving Range

Figure 5 Shooting control chart when new ammunition is used

In the left part of shooting control chart you can see that first shots using new
ammunition exceeded the upper control limit and shooting process is incapable in this
part.
Figure 6 shows a shooting control chart for the hit radius which is divided into three
arts and presents a positive (developmental) trend of improvement of sniper’s
performance.
 62 Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK Advances in MT
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VALUE OF CHARACTERISTIC
hit radius

influence of systematic shooting process level of improved

factor on shooting improving shooting process

Figure 6 Improving of shooting process

In Figure 6, in the first part of the shooting control chart there are recorded high values
of radius of hits (30-35 mm) caused by using a new type of ammunition with different
ballistic properties. The shooting control chart convincingly recorded the influence of
systematic factor, i.e. the using of a new type of ammunition, and the values of hit
radii exceed the values of sniper "B" from Fig. 4 several times.
The second part of the shooting control chart depicts the process of shooting
improvement of the sniper using a new type of ammunition. The values of hit radii
gradually lower to a standard level of sniper "B" (10-15 mm).
The third part of the shooting control chart records the level of a new stable state of
shooting process of the sniper. The level of hit radii reaches here the level comparable
with the stable and capable shooting process of sniper "B" from Fig. 4.

5. Conclusion

The shooting control chart provides a clearly organized illustration of training

shooting process of snipers. Individual hits inside control limits reflect the ability of
the sniper to hit the target by the first shot.
Using shooting control charts enables not only to effectively control the process of
training, but offers a possibility to obtain a good knowledge about theoretical
background of shooting process of any sniper.
The shooting control chart can successfully monitor trends in development of
individual snipers and enables to take effective measures to improve their performance
Advances in MT SNIPERS’ SHOOTING CONTROL CHART 63
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and is a suitable tool for documenting and evaluating snipers´ ability to fulfil their
tasks.

References

[1] JANKOVÝCH, Róbert and MAJTANÍK, Jozef. Evaluation of capability of snipers’

shooting. In: Sborník 1st International Scientific Conference on Special Technology.
Bratislava 2006, 8 s. ISBN 80-8075-128-5.
[2] JANKOVÝCH, Róbert and MAJTANÍK, Jozef. Quality of Weapons and Ammunition
(Jakost zbraní a střeliva). [Skriptum]. Ostrava: Vysoká škola báňská – Technická
univerzita Ostrava 2006, 103 s. ISBN 80/248/1208/8.
[3] Juran, J. M. and Godfrey, A. B., Juran´s Quality Handbook – Fifth Edition. McGraw-
Hill, 1999.
[4] ČSN ISO 8258.

Introduction of Authors:
JANKOVÝCH, Róbert, Assoc. Prof., Dipl. Eng., Ph.D., University of Defence, Brno,
Department of Weapons and Ammunition, Czech Republic,
He has devoted his research effort to armament preventive maintenance, being interested
in selected issues of technical logistics of armament and also in statistical control of
snipers’ shooting.

MAJTANÍK, Jozef, Assoc. Prof., Dipl. Eng., Ph.D., University of Defence, Brno,
Department of Weapons and Ammunition, Czech Republic,
During his 40 years of diversified engineering experience in weapons using he has spend
much time in reliability and quality control of weapons and ammunitions. He prepared
and directed the utilization of reliability models for several Czech guns.
64 Róbert JANKOVÝCH, Jozef MAJTANÍK Advances in MT
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