Introduction to Machine Learning

Assignment- Week 4
TYPE OF QUESTION: MCQ
Number of questions: 10 Total mark: 10 X 2 = 20
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QUESTION 1:
A man is known to speak the truth 2 out of 3 times. He throws a die and reports that the number
obtained is 4. Find the probability that the number obtained is actually 4 :
A. 2/3
B. 3/4
C. 5/22
D. 2/7

Correct Answer : D. 2/7

Detailed Solution : Suppose,

𝐴 : 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 4 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑.

𝐵 : 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 4 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵) 2 1 1 5
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = here, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 3
, 𝑃(𝐵) = 6
, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 3
, 𝑃(𝐵) = 6
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵)+𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵)

2
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 7

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QUESTION 2:
Consider the following graphical model, mark which of the following pair of random variables
are independent given no evidence?
 A. a,b
B. c,d
C. e,d
D. c,e
Correct Answer : A. a,b

Detailed Solution : Nodes a and b don’t have any predecessor nodes. As they don’t have any
common parent nodes, a and b are independent.

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QUESTION 3:
Two cards are drawn at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
probability of drawing a 2 and an Ace in that order?
A. 4/51
B. 1/13
C. 4/256
D. 4/663

Correct Answer : D. 4/663

Detailed Solution :

A : Drawing a 2

B : Drawing an Ace from the remaining 51 cards

4 1 4
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) * 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) here, 𝑃(𝐴) = 52
= 13
, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 51

1*4 4
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 13*51
= 663

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QUESTION 4:
Consider the following Bayesian network. The random variables given in the model are
modeled as discrete variables (Rain = R, Sprinkler = S and Wet Grass = W) and the
corresponding probability values are given below.

P(R) = 0.1
P(S) = 0.2
P(W | R, S) = 0.8
P(W | R, ¬ S) = 0.7
P(W | ¬ R, S) = 0.6
P(W | ¬ R, ¬ S) = 0.5

Calculate P(S | W, R).

A. 1
B. 0.5
C. 0.22
D. 0.78

Correct Answer : C. 0.22

𝑃(𝑊,𝑆,𝑅) 𝑃(𝑊𝑆𝑅)
Detailed Solution : 𝑃(𝑆|𝑊, 𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑊,𝑅)
=
𝑃(𝑊𝑆𝑅)+𝑃(𝑊𝑆𝑅)
𝑃(𝑊𝑆𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑊|𝑆, 𝑅) * 𝑃(𝑅) * 𝑃(𝑆) = 0. 8 * 0. 1 * 0. 2 = 0. 016
𝑃(𝑊𝑆𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑊|𝑆, 𝑅) * 𝑃(𝑅) * 𝑃(𝑆) = 0. 7 * 0. 1 * 0. 8 = 0. 056

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QUESTION 5:
What is the naive assumption in a Naive Bayes Classifier?

A. All the classes are independent of each other

B. All the features of a class are independent of each other
C. The most probable feature for a class is the most important feature to be considered for
classification
D. All the features of a class are conditionally dependent on each other.

Correct Answer: B. All the features of a class are independent of each other

Detailed Solution: Naive Bayes Assumption is that all the features of a class are independent of
each other which is not the case in real life. Because of this assumption, the classifier is called
Naive Bayes Classifier.

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QUESTION 6:
A drug test (random variable T) has 1% false positives (i.e., 1% of those not taking drugs show
positive in the test), and 5% false negatives (i.e., 5% of those taking drugs test negative).
Suppose that 2% of those tested are taking drugs. Determine the probability that somebody who
tests positive is actually taking drugs (random variable D).
A. 0.66
B. 0.34
C. 0.50
D. 0.91

Correct Answer : A. 0.66

Detailed Solution :
𝑃(𝑇|𝐷)𝑃(𝐷) 95 1 2
𝑃(𝐷|𝑇) = , 𝑃(𝑇|𝐷) = 100
, 𝑃(𝑇|𝐷) = 100
, 𝑃(𝐷) = 100
𝑃(𝑇|𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)+𝑃(𝑇|𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)
𝑃(𝐷|𝑇) = 0. 66

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QUESTION 7:
It is given that 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 2/3 and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 1/4. Compute the value of 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).
A. ½
B. ⅔
C. ¾
D. Not enough information.
Correct Solution : D. Not enough information.
Detailed Solution : There are 3 unknown probabilities 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐵), 𝑃(𝐴𝐵)which can not be
computed from the 2 given probabilities. So, we don’t have enough information to compute
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).
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QUESTION 8:
Answer Questions 8-9 with the data given below:
A patient goes to a doctor with symptoms S1, S2 and S3. The doctor suspects disease D1and D2
and constructs a Bayesian network for the relation among the disease and symptoms as the
following:

What is the joint probability distribution in terms of conditional probabilities?

A. 𝑃(𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝐷2|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝑆1|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝑆2|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝑆3|𝐷2)
B. 𝑃(𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝐷2) * 𝑃(𝑆1|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝑆2|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝑆3|𝐷1, 𝐷2)
C. 𝑃(𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝐷2) * 𝑃(𝑆1|𝐷2) * 𝑃(𝑆2|𝐷2) * 𝑃(𝑆3|𝐷2)
D. 𝑃(𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝐷2) * 𝑃(𝑆1|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝑆2|𝐷1, 𝐷2) * 𝑃(𝑆3|𝐷2)

Correct Answer: D.
Detailed Solution: From the figure, we can see that D1 and D2 are not dependent on any
variable as they don’t have any incoming directed edges. S1 has an incoming edge from D1,
hence S1 depends on D1. S2 has 2 incoming edges from D1 and D2, hence S2 depends on D1
and D2. S3 has an incoming edge from D2, S3 depends on D2. Hence, (D) is the answer.

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QUESTION 9:
Suppose P(D1) = 0.5, P(D2)=0.6 , P(S1|D1)=0.4 and P(S1| D1’ )= 0.6. Find P(S1)
A. 0.14
B. 0.36
C. 0.50
D. 0.66

Correct Answer: C. 0.50

Detailed Solution:

𝑃(𝑆1) = 𝑃(𝑆1|𝐷1) * 𝑃(𝐷1) + 𝑃(𝑆1|𝐷1')𝑃(𝐷1') = 0. 4 * 0. 5 + 0. 6 * 0. 5 = 0. 5

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QUESTION 10:
In a Bayesian network a node with only outgoing edge(s) represents

A. a variable conditionally independent of the other variables.

B. a variable dependent on its siblings.
C. a variable whose dependency is uncertain.
D. None of the above.

Correct Answer: A. a variable conditionally independent of the other variables.

Detailed Solution : As there is no incoming edge for the node, the node is not
conditionally dependent on any other node.

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