27-Jul-23 Fryer's Oilseed Report
Close
Beans Close Jul 26 Premiums (¢/bu) Fob ($/mt)
Futures ¢/bu +/(-) US Brazil cargo Paranagua Argentine US Brazil Paranagua Argentine
Aug 1,546.25 30.75 Aug 95 95 -50 - Aug 603 603 550 -
Sep 1,468.50 18.00 Sep 125 95 35 - Sep 586 575 552 -
Nov 1,420.00 0.00 Oct 105 - 98 - Oct 560 - 558 -
Jan 1,425.00 -0.25 Nov 95 - 110 - Nov 557 - 562 -
SoyMeal Premiums ($/st) Fob ($/mt)
Futures $/st +/(-) US 46.5 Brazil 48 Dutch hipro Argentine 46.5 US Brazil Dutch hipro Argentine
Aug 464.70 10.90 Aug 25 -6 67 29 Aug 540 506 586 544
Sep 444.60 8.30 Sep 28 18 70 28 Sep 521 510 567 521
Oct 423.90 4.00 Oct 32 30 72 33 Oct 503 500 547 504
Dec 418.60 2.50 Nov 32 32 72 33 Nov 497 497 541 498
BeanOil Premiums (¢/lb) Fob ($/mt) UCO fob ARA (€) UCO cif ARA ($)
Futures ¢/lb +/(-) US Brazil Argentine US Brazil Argentine 910 915
Aug 70.27 -2.29 Aug 8 -23 -24 Aug 1726 1042 1020 6-ports sunoil ($) FDM RSO (€)
Sep 66.97 -1.51 Sep - -21 -20 Sep - 1013 1036 1100 985
Oct 64.47 -1.22 Oct - -18 - Oct - 1024 - Palmoil cif EU ($) fob Mal. RBD PO ($)
Dec 63.19 -1.07 Nov - -17 - Nov - 1018 - 1020 913
CBOT crush Oil Share Dalian CNY/tonne EU biodiesel ($/tonne)
¢/bu 249.06 43.05% Beans (U) Meal (U) Beanoil (U) Rapeoil (U) Olein (U) Gasoil RME FAME 0 UCOME
+/(-) -2.29 -1.37% 4,987 4327 8250 9758 7734 Aug 832 1367 1282 1502
Spreads/ratios 11 87 94 -11 -2 Q3 822 1352 1224 1445
SX23/CZ23 2.52 $1.5 $12.2 $13.2 -$1.5 -$0.3 Q4 785 1304 1127 1354
NC Rapeseed/Wheat 1.84 US RINS 158 USc/Gal
Rapeseed: EU-CAD -93 Rapeseed/ Canola Rapemeal DDG's Peso Peso blue Real MYR
Rapeseed: EU-OZ 16 Matif (X) W'peg (X) Australian Spot 289 355 272 541 4.74 4.53
Soymeal/rapemeal 55% 475.50 830.80 750.00 ARAG Hipro sunmeal Soy hulls CAD CNY EUR AUD/EUR
Rapeoil-sunoil -7 -3.00 6.80 258 210 1.32 7.14 1.11 0.61
Crops/Weather: The US keeps precip mostly in the Lakes states and upper Midwest, with
the rest of the country still dry with above/much above normal temperatures. Canada
still has showers in the north, but the S Prairies remain dry and warm. Rain, often
heavy, continues across eastern and northern Europe, E Ukraine is also wet but S Rus-
sia stays mostly dry. W Australia has some showers but the eastern belts are dry, In-
dia's monsoon remains sub-par in the south.
Trade: The trade is looking for 50-400kt old crop soybean sales and 300-800kt new crop
sales. Old crop meal sales are expected at 50-300kt with 100-300kt new crop, oil is
expected at 0-10kt for both old and new crop. Flash sales totaled 501kt (18.4mbu) to
unknown for 23/24.
Markets: August CBOT soybeans were up 31c/bu at contract highs, with deferred posi-
tions lagging. At 500kt export sales were the largest sales of the year so far. Meal
was much stronger too, gaining $11/tonne nearby, but again the deferred new crop posi-
tions were more reluctant. Meanwhile beanoil was down 2.29c/lb ($50/tonne) nearby.
Meal markets are strong with local demand growing fearful of the export pull, amidst
expectations of another week of strong sales in today’s report.
Brazilian bean premiums were steady, as were South American product premiums.
Dalian soymeal continues to rally to yet more contract highs with the pace of increas-
es accelerating. Dalian vegoils are more subdued, but are maintaining recent ranges
and testing the top end of the those ranges overnight. Bursa palmoil is a little weak-
er with little fresh news.
Nov Matif rapeseed futures fell slightly as harvest pressure come back to bear on the
market. Rapeseed never garnered the strength of grains this week, and has been moving
contrary to almost every related market (crude, canola, soybeans, beanoil). But funds
have cut their entire rapeseed short, and like wheat are holding a neutral position
(as of July 21st). ICE canola meanwhile is steadier with the same theme of expanding
crush and poor growing conditions dominating. The Matif-Canola spread pushing to fresh
lows. In the absence of a grain corridor Ukrainian oilseeds will be dumped again on EU
crushers via trucks and trains.
Outlook: Meal markets are on fire (contract highs in the US and China) as the Argen-
tine drought implications come to bear in the form of the very strong US sales and
strong Chinese prices. Crush margins have again swung to exceptional levels that will
stimulate crushing the world over and alternative proteins are looking like value
again to form the basis for the market solving this pinch. Rapeseed is the contrarian
of the market and while it cannot go it alone forever, harvest pressure and an absence
of nearby crusher interest, as well as prospects of Ukrainian oilseeds being dumped
in the EU should the corridor not be re-established, are all weighing on local values.
Bull spreads continue to work for CBOT beans and meal, with overnight beans up 25¢ and
meal up $5, but oil is down 50 in the nearby.
Information is from sources believed reliable but may be incomplete and can't be guaranteed. Opinions may change without notice. Reproduction/transmission prohibited.
Euronext rapeseed Investment Firms or Credit Institutions position
(000 contracts)
30 1200
1100
20
1000
Position in 000 contracts
10 900
Price (€/tonne)
800
0
700
-10 600
500
-20
400
Fund net Price
-30 300
Euronext rapeseed Investment Firms or Credit Institutions
position (000 contracts)
30
20
Upper 10%
10
-10
-20
Lower 10%
-30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Min Max 2022 2023
Fund positions Fund positions Fund positions
CBOT Wheat CBOT Corn CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soymeal CBOT Soyoil
Date Daily change CFTC Date Daily change CFTC Date Daily change CFTC Daily change CFTC Daily change CFTC
28/06/2023 -13,000 28/06/2023 -20,000 28/06/2023 -18,000 -5,000 -4,000
29/06/2023 -1,500 29/06/2023 -9,500 29/06/2023 5,000 1,500 -1,000
30/06/2023 -6,000 30/06/2023 -26,000 30/06/2023 21,000 7,000 14,500
03/07/2023 -2,500 -56,399 03/07/2023 500 -18,209 03/07/2023 8,500 90,193 500 52,590 5,000 45,235
05/07/2023 15,000 05/07/2023 1,500 05/07/2023 2,000 -1,000 4,500
06/07/2023 -6,000 06/07/2023 8,000 06/07/2023 -6,500 -1,000 -8,000
07/07/2023 -3,000 07/07/2023 -7,000 07/07/2023 -7,000 -3,000 -2,500
10/07/2023 -1,000 10/07/2023 4,500 10/07/2023 10,000 2,000 8,000
11/07/2023 5,500 -54,409 11/07/2023 1,000 -63,052 11/07/2023 5,500 84,244 4,000 54,013 -2,000 51,338
12/07/2023 -9,000 12/07/2023 -10,500 12/07/2023 -10,000 -4,000 -1,000
13/07/2023 3,500 13/07/2023 10,000 13/07/2023 15,000 5,000 5,000
14/07/2023 7,500 14/07/2023 10,500 14/07/2023 500 500 -2,000
17/07/2023 -2,500 17/07/2023 -6,500 17/07/2023 4,500 3,500 -2,000
18/07/2023 5,500 -57,009 18/07/2023 20,000 -46,926 18/07/2023 9,500 94,970 4,000 57,801 -3,500 46,702
19/07/2023 15,500 19/07/2023 12,000 19/07/2023 3,000 -1,000 5,000
20/07/2023 -1,500 20/07/2023 -6,000 20/07/2023 -2,500 -3,000 4,500
21/07/2023 -11,000 21/07/2023 -7,500 21/07/2023 -1,000 2,000 2,000
24/07/2023 21,500 24/07/2023 24,000 24/07/2023 9,500 3,500 9,000
25/07/2023 2,500 25/07/2023 -3,000 25/07/2023 -2,500 4,000 -1,000
26/07/2023 -12,500 26/07/2023 -13,500 26/07/2023 4,000 4,500 -3,500
Current est. 14,500 -42,509 6,000 -40,926 10,500 105,470 10,000 67,801 16,000 62,702
Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time
Percentile 28% Percentile 24% Percentile 67% 83% 80%
1 yr ago -11,553 1 yr ago 125,303 1 yr ago 83,070 66,487 17,656
Max 21,500 73,662 Max 24,000 429,189 Max 21,000 240,937 7,000 155,797 14,500 125,722
Min -13,000 -171,269 Min -26,000 -322,215 Min -18,000 -171,141 -5,000 -75,873 -8,000 -110,846
Average 350 -17,764 Average -875 101,391 Average 2,525 69,178 1,200 33,018 1,350 22,842
Pattern Pattern Pattern
