Statistics

Statistics (from German: Statistik, orig. "description of a

state, a country")[1][2] is the discipline that concerns the
collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and
presentation of data.[3][4][5] In applying statistics to a
scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional
to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model
to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of
people or objects such as "all people living in a country"
or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals
with every aspect of data, including the planning of data
collection in terms of the design of surveys and The normal distribution, a very common
experiments.[6] probability density, is used extensively in
inferential statistics.
When census data cannot be collected, statisticians
collect data by developing specific experiment designs
and survey samples. Representative sampling assures
that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend
from the sample to the population as a whole. An
experimental study involves taking measurements of the
system under study, manipulating the system, and then
taking additional measurements using the same
procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified
the values of the measurements. In contrast, an
observational study does not involve experimental
manipulation.

Two main statistical methods are used in data analysis:

descriptive statistics, which summarize data from a
sample using indexes such as the mean or standard
deviation, and inferential statistics, which draw
conclusions from data that are subject to random Scatter plots and line charts are used in
variation (e.g., observational errors, sampling descriptive statistics to show the observed
variation). [7] Descriptive statistics are most often relationships between different variables, here
concerned with two sets of properties of a distribution using the Iris flower data set.
(sample or population): central tendency (or location)
seeks to characterize the distribution's central or typical
value, while dispersion (or variability) characterizes the extent to which members of the distribution depart
from its center and each other. Inferences on mathematical statistics are made under the framework of
probability theory, which deals with the analysis of random phenomena.

A standard statistical procedure involves the collection of data leading to a test of the relationship between
two statistical data sets, or a data set and synthetic data drawn from an idealized model. A hypothesis is
proposed for the statistical relationship between the two data sets, and this is compared as an alternative to
an idealized null hypothesis of no relationship between two data sets. Rejecting or disproving the null
hypothesis is done using statistical tests that quantify the sense in which the null can be proven false, given
the data that are used in the test. Working from a null hypothesis, two basic forms of error are recognized:
Type I errors (null hypothesis is falsely rejected giving a "false positive") and Type II errors (null
hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual relationship between populations is missed giving a "false
negative").[8] Multiple problems have come to be associated with this framework, ranging from obtaining a
sufficient sample size to specifying an adequate null hypothesis.[7]

Statistical measurement processes are also prone to error in regards to the data that they generate. Many of
these errors are classified as random (noise) or systematic (bias), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder,
such as when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also occur. The presence of missing data or censoring
may result in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed to address these problems.

Introduction
Statistics is a mathematical body of science that pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation or
explanation, and presentation of data,[9] or as a branch of mathematics.[10] Some consider statistics to be a
distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics. While many scientific investigations
make use of data, statistics is concerned with the use of data in the context of uncertainty and decision-
making in the face of uncertainty.[11][12]

In applying statistics to a problem, it is common practice to start with a population or process to be studied.
Populations can be diverse topics, such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a
crystal". Ideally, statisticians compile data about the entire population (an operation called a census). This
may be organized by governmental statistical institutes. Descriptive statistics can be used to summarize the
population data. Numerical descriptors include mean and standard deviation for continuous data (like
income), while frequency and percentage are more useful in terms of describing categorical data (like
education).

When a census is not feasible, a chosen subset of the population called a sample is studied. Once a sample
that is representative of the population is determined, data is collected for the sample members in an
observational or experimental setting. Again, descriptive statistics can be used to summarize the sample
data. However, drawing the sample contains an element of randomness; hence, the numerical descriptors
from the sample are also prone to uncertainty. To draw meaningful conclusions about the entire population,
inferential statistics are needed. It uses patterns in the sample data to draw inferences about the population
represented while accounting for randomness. These inferences may take the form of answering yes/no
questions about the data (hypothesis testing), estimating numerical characteristics of the data (estimation),
describing associations within the data (correlation), and modeling relationships within the data (for
example, using regression analysis). Inference can extend to the forecasting, prediction, and estimation of
unobserved values either in or associated with the population being studied. It can include extrapolation and
interpolation of time series or spatial data, as well as data mining.

Mathematical statistics

Mathematical statistics is the application of mathematics to statistics. Mathematical techniques used for this
include mathematical analysis, linear algebra, stochastic analysis, differential equations, and measure-
theoretic probability theory.[13][14]

History
Formal discussions on inference date back to Arab mathematicians and cryptographers, during the Islamic
Golden Age between the 8th and 13th centuries. Al-Khalil (717–786) wrote the Book of Cryptographic
Messages, which contains one of the first uses of permutations and combinations, to list all possible Arabic
words with and without vowels.[15] Al-Kindi's Manuscript on
Deciphering Cryptographic Messages gave a detailed description
of how to use frequency analysis to decipher encrypted messages,
providing an early example of statistical inference for decoding. Ibn
Adlan (1187–1268) later made an important contribution on the use
of sample size in frequency analysis.[15]

The term 'statistic' was introduced by the Italian scholar Girolamo

Ghilini in 1589 with reference to this science.[16][17] The earliest
writing containing statistics in Europe dates back to 1663, with the
publication of Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of
Mortality by John Graunt.[18] Early applications of statistical
thinking revolved around the needs of states to base policy on
demographic and economic data, hence its stat- etymology. The
scope of the discipline of statistics broadened in the early 19th Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi was the
century to include the collection and analysis of data in general. first work that dealt with probability
Today, statistics is widely employed in government, business, and theory as currently understood.
natural and social sciences.

The mathematical foundations of statistics developed from discussions concerning games of chance among
mathematicians such as Gerolamo Cardano, Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat, and Christiaan Huygens.
Although the idea of probability was already examined in ancient and medieval law and philosophy (such
as the work of Juan Caramuel), probability theory as a mathematical discipline only took shape at the very
end of the 17th century, particularly in Jacob Bernoulli's posthumous work Ars Conjectandi.[19] This was
the first book where the realm of games of chance and the realm of the probable (which concerned opinion,
evidence, and argument) were combined and submitted to mathematical analysis.[20][21] The method of
least squares was first described by Adrien-Marie Legendre in 1805, though Carl Friedrich Gauss
presumably made use of it a decade earlier in 1795.[22]

The modern field of statistics emerged in the late 19th and early
20th century in three stages.[23] The first wave, at the turn of the
century, was led by the work of Francis Galton and Karl Pearson,
who transformed statistics into a rigorous mathematical discipline
used for analysis, not just in science, but in industry and politics as
well. Galton's contributions included introducing the concepts of
standard deviation, correlation, regression analysis and the
application of these methods to the study of the variety of human
characteristics—height, weight and eyelash length among
others.[24] Pearson developed the Pearson product-moment Karl Pearson, a founder of
correlation coefficient, defined as a product-moment,[25] the mathematical statistics.
method of moments for the fitting of distributions to samples and
the Pearson distribution, among many other things.[26] Galton and
Pearson founded Biometrika as the first journal of mathematical statistics and biostatistics (then called
biometry), and the latter founded the world's first university statistics department at University College
London.[27]

The second wave of the 1910s and 20s was initiated by William Sealy Gosset, and reached its culmination
in the insights of Ronald Fisher, who wrote the textbooks that were to define the academic discipline in
universities around the world. Fisher's most important publications were his 1918 seminal paper The
Correlation between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance (which was the first to use the
statistical term, variance), his classic 1925 work Statistical Methods for Research Workers and his 1935 The
Design of Experiments,[28][29][30] where he developed rigorous design of experiments models. He
originated the concepts of sufficiency, ancillary statistics, Fisher's linear discriminator and Fisher
information.[31] He also coined the term null hypothesis during the Lady tasting tea experiment, which "is
never proved or established, but is possibly disproved, in the course of experimentation".[32][33] In his 1930
book The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, he applied statistics to various biological concepts such as
Fisher's principle[34] (which A. W. F. Edwards called "probably the most celebrated argument in
evolutionary biology") and Fisherian runaway,[35][36][37][38][39][40] a concept in sexual selection about a
positive feedback runaway effect found in evolution.

The final wave, which mainly saw the refinement and expansion of earlier developments, emerged from the
collaborative work between Egon Pearson and Jerzy Neyman in the 1930s. They introduced the concepts
of "Type II" error, power of a test and confidence intervals. Jerzy Neyman in 1934 showed that stratified
random sampling was in general a better method of estimation than purposive (quota) sampling.[41]

Today, statistical methods are applied in all fields that involve decision making, for making accurate
inferences from a collated body of data and for making decisions in the face of uncertainty based on
statistical methodology. The use of modern computers has expedited large-scale statistical computations and
has also made possible new methods that are impractical to perform manually. Statistics continues to be an
area of active research, for example on the problem of how to analyze big data.[42]

Statistical data

Data collection

Sampling

When full census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect sample data by developing specific
experiment designs and survey samples. Statistics itself also provides tools for prediction and forecasting
through statistical models.

To use a sample as a guide to an entire population, it is important that it truly represents the overall
population. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can safely extend from the
sample to the population as a whole. A major problem lies in determining the extent that the sample chosen
is actually representative. Statistics offers methods to estimate and correct for any bias within the sample
and data collection procedures. There are also methods of experimental design that can lessen these issues
at the outset of a study, strengthening its capability to discern truths about the population.

Sampling theory is part of the mathematical discipline of probability theory. Probability is used in
mathematical statistics to study the sampling distributions of sample statistics and, more generally, the
properties of statistical procedures. The use of any statistical method is valid when the system or population
under consideration satisfies the assumptions of the method. The difference in point of view between
classic probability theory and sampling theory is, roughly, that probability theory starts from the given
parameters of a total population to deduce probabilities that pertain to samples. Statistical inference,
however, moves in the opposite direction—inductively inferring from samples to the parameters of a larger
or total population.

Experimental and observational studies

A common goal for a statistical research project is to investigate causality, and in particular to draw a
conclusion on the effect of changes in the values of predictors or independent variables on dependent
variables. There are two major types of causal statistical studies: experimental studies and observational
studies. In both types of studies, the effect of differences of an independent variable (or variables) on the
behavior of the dependent variable are observed. The difference between the two types lies in how the
study is actually conducted. Each can be very effective. An experimental study involves taking
measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking additional measurements
using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified the values of the measurements. In
contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation. Instead, data are gathered and
correlations between predictors and response are investigated. While the tools of data analysis work best on
data from randomized studies, they are also applied to other kinds of data—like natural experiments and
observational studies[43]—for which a statistician would use a modified, more structured estimation method
(e.g., Difference in differences estimation and instrumental variables, among many others) that produce
consistent estimators.

Experiments

The basic steps of a statistical experiment are:

1. Planning the research, including finding the number of replicates of the study, using the
following information: preliminary estimates regarding the size of treatment effects,
alternative hypotheses, and the estimated experimental variability. Consideration of the
selection of experimental subjects and the ethics of research is necessary. Statisticians
recommend that experiments compare (at least) one new treatment with a standard
treatment or control, to allow an unbiased estimate of the difference in treatment effects.
2. Design of experiments, using blocking to reduce the influence of confounding variables, and
randomized assignment of treatments to subjects to allow unbiased estimates of treatment
effects and experimental error. At this stage, the experimenters and statisticians write the
experimental protocol that will guide the performance of the experiment and which specifies
the primary analysis of the experimental data.
3. Performing the experiment following the experimental protocol and analyzing the data
following the experimental protocol.
4. Further examining the data set in secondary analyses, to suggest new hypotheses for future
study.
5. Documenting and presenting the results of the study.

Experiments on human behavior have special concerns. The famous Hawthorne study examined changes
to the working environment at the Hawthorne plant of the Western Electric Company. The researchers were
interested in determining whether increased illumination would increase the productivity of the assembly
line workers. The researchers first measured the productivity in the plant, then modified the illumination in
an area of the plant and checked if the changes in illumination affected productivity. It turned out that
productivity indeed improved (under the experimental conditions). However, the study is heavily criticized
today for errors in experimental procedures, specifically for the lack of a control group and blindness. The
Hawthorne effect refers to finding that an outcome (in this case, worker productivity) changed due to
observation itself. Those in the Hawthorne study became more productive not because the lighting was
changed but because they were being observed.[44]

Observational study
An example of an observational study is one that explores the association between smoking and lung
cancer. This type of study typically uses a survey to collect observations about the area of interest and then
performs statistical analysis. In this case, the researchers would collect observations of both smokers and
non-smokers, perhaps through a cohort study, and then look for the number of cases of lung cancer in each
group.[45] A case-control study is another type of observational study in which people with and without the
outcome of interest (e.g. lung cancer) are invited to participate and their exposure histories are collected.

Types of data

Various attempts have been made to produce a taxonomy of levels of measurement. The psychophysicist
Stanley Smith Stevens defined nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio scales. Nominal measurements do not
have meaningful rank order among values, and permit any one-to-one (injective) transformation. Ordinal
measurements have imprecise differences between consecutive values, but have a meaningful order to those
values, and permit any order-preserving transformation. Interval measurements have meaningful distances
between measurements defined, but the zero value is arbitrary (as in the case with longitude and
temperature measurements in Celsius or Fahrenheit), and permit any linear transformation. Ratio
measurements have both a meaningful zero value and the distances between different measurements
defined, and permit any rescaling transformation.

Because variables conforming only to nominal or ordinal measurements cannot be reasonably measured
numerically, sometimes they are grouped together as categorical variables, whereas ratio and interval
measurements are grouped together as quantitative variables, which can be either discrete or continuous,
due to their numerical nature. Such distinctions can often be loosely correlated with data type in computer
science, in that dichotomous categorical variables may be represented with the Boolean data type,
polytomous categorical variables with arbitrarily assigned integers in the integral data type, and continuous
variables with the real data type involving floating-point arithmetic. But the mapping of computer science
data types to statistical data types depends on which categorization of the latter is being implemented.

Other categorizations have been proposed. For example, Mosteller and Tukey (1977)[46] distinguished
grades, ranks, counted fractions, counts, amounts, and balances. Nelder (1990)[47] described continuous
counts, continuous ratios, count ratios, and categorical modes of data. (See also: Chrisman (1998),[48] van
den Berg (1991).[49])

The issue of whether or not it is appropriate to apply different kinds of statistical methods to data obtained
from different kinds of measurement procedures is complicated by issues concerning the transformation of
variables and the precise interpretation of research questions. "The relationship between the data and what
they describe merely reflects the fact that certain kinds of statistical statements may have truth values which
are not invariant under some transformations. Whether or not a transformation is sensible to contemplate
depends on the question one is trying to answer."[50]: 8 2 

Methods

Descriptive statistics
A descriptive statistic (in the count noun sense) is a summary statistic that quantitatively describes or
summarizes features of a collection of information,[51] while descriptive statistics in the mass noun sense
is the process of using and analyzing those statistics. Descriptive statistics is distinguished from inferential
statistics (or inductive statistics), in that descriptive statistics aims to summarize a sample, rather than use the
data to learn about the population that the sample of data is thought to represent.[52]

Inferential statistics

Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to deduce properties of an underlying probability
distribution.[53] Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for example by testing
hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger
population. Inferential statistics can be contrasted with descriptive statistics. Descriptive statistics is solely
concerned with properties of the observed data, and it does not rest on the assumption that the data come
from a larger population.[54]

Terminology and theory of inferential statistics

Statistics, estimators and pivotal quantities

Consider independent identically distributed (IID) random variables with a given probability distribution:
standard statistical inference and estimation theory defines a random sample as the random vector given by
the column vector of these IID variables.[55] The population being examined is described by a probability
distribution that may have unknown parameters.

A statistic is a random variable that is a function of the random sample, but not a function of unknown
parameters. The probability distribution of the statistic, though, may have unknown parameters. Consider
now a function of the unknown parameter: an estimator is a statistic used to estimate such function.
Commonly used estimators include sample mean, unbiased sample variance and sample covariance.

A random variable that is a function of the random sample and of the unknown parameter, but whose
probability distribution does not depend on the unknown parameter is called a pivotal quantity or pivot.
Widely used pivots include the z-score, the chi square statistic and Student's t-value.

Between two estimators of a given parameter, the one with lower mean squared error is said to be more
efficient. Furthermore, an estimator is said to be unbiased if its expected value is equal to the true value of
the unknown parameter being estimated, and asymptotically unbiased if its expected value converges at the
limit to the true value of such parameter.

Other desirable properties for estimators include: UMVUE estimators that have the lowest variance for all
possible values of the parameter to be estimated (this is usually an easier property to verify than efficiency)
and consistent estimators which converges in probability to the true value of such parameter.

This still leaves the question of how to obtain estimators in a given situation and carry the computation,
several methods have been proposed: the method of moments, the maximum likelihood method, the least
squares method and the more recent method of estimating equations.

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

Interpretation of statistical information can often involve the development of a null hypothesis which is
usually (but not necessarily) that no relationship exists among variables or that no change occurred over
time.[56][57]

The best illustration for a novice is the predicament encountered by a criminal trial. The null hypothesis,
H0 , asserts that the defendant is innocent, whereas the alternative hypothesis, H1 , asserts that the defendant
is guilty. The indictment comes because of suspicion of the guilt. The H0 (status quo) stands in opposition
to H1 and is maintained unless H1 is supported by evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt". However,
"failure to reject H0 " in this case does not imply innocence, but merely that the evidence was insufficient to
convict. So the jury does not necessarily accept H0 but fails to reject H0 . While one can not "prove" a null
hypothesis, one can test how close it is to being true with a power test, which tests for type II errors.

What statisticians call an alternative hypothesis is simply a hypothesis that contradicts the null hypothesis.

Error

Working from a null hypothesis, two broad categories of error are recognized:

Type I errors where the null hypothesis is falsely rejected, giving a "false positive".
Type II errors where the null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual difference between
populations is missed, giving a "false negative".

Standard deviation refers to the extent to which individual observations in a sample differ from a central
value, such as the sample or population mean, while Standard error refers to an estimate of difference
between sample mean and population mean.

A statistical error is the amount by which an observation differs from its expected value. A residual is the
amount an observation differs from the value the estimator of the expected value assumes on a given
sample (also called prediction).

Mean squared error is used for obtaining efficient estimators, a widely used class of estimators. Root mean
square error is simply the square root of mean squared error.

Many statistical methods seek to minimize the residual sum of

squares, and these are called "methods of least squares" in contrast
to Least absolute deviations. The latter gives equal weight to small
and big errors, while the former gives more weight to large errors.
Residual sum of squares is also differentiable, which provides a
handy property for doing regression. Least squares applied to linear
regression is called ordinary least squares method and least squares
applied to nonlinear regression is called non-linear least squares.
Also in a linear regression model the non deterministic part of the
model is called error term, disturbance or more simply noise. Both
linear regression and non-linear regression are addressed in
polynomial least squares, which also describes the variance in a A least squares fit: in red the points
prediction of the dependent variable (y axis) as a function of the to be fitted, in blue the fitted line.
independent variable (x axis) and the deviations (errors, noise,
disturbances) from the estimated (fitted) curve.

Measurement processes that generate statistical data are also subject to error. Many of these errors are
classified as random (noise) or systematic (bias), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder, such as when an
analyst reports incorrect units) can also be important. The presence of missing data or censoring may result
in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed to address these problems.[58]

Interval estimation

Most studies only sample part of a population, so results do not

fully represent the whole population. Any estimates obtained from
the sample only approximate the population value. Confidence
intervals allow statisticians to express how closely the sample
estimate matches the true value in the whole population. Often they
Confidence intervals: the red line is
are expressed as 95% confidence intervals. Formally, a 95%
true value for the mean in this
confidence interval for a value is a range where, if the sampling and
example, the blue lines are random
analysis were repeated under the same conditions (yielding a
confidence intervals for 100
different dataset), the interval would include the true (population) realizations.
value in 95% of all possible cases. This does not imply that the
probability that the true value is in the confidence interval is 95%.
From the frequentist perspective, such a claim does not even make sense, as the true value is not a random
variable. Either the true value is or is not within the given interval. However, it is true that, before any data
are sampled and given a plan for how to construct the confidence interval, the probability is 95% that the
yet-to-be-calculated interval will cover the true value: at this point, the limits of the interval are yet-to-be-
observed random variables. One approach that does yield an interval that can be interpreted as having a
given probability of containing the true value is to use a credible interval from Bayesian statistics: this
approach depends on a different way of interpreting what is meant by "probability", that is as a Bayesian
probability.

In principle confidence intervals can be symmetrical or asymmetrical. An interval can be asymmetrical

because it works as lower or upper bound for a parameter (left-sided interval or right sided interval), but it
can also be asymmetrical because the two sided interval is built violating symmetry around the estimate.
Sometimes the bounds for a confidence interval are reached asymptotically and these are used to
approximate the true bounds.

Significance

Statistics rarely give a simple Yes/No type answer to the question under analysis. Interpretation often comes
down to the level of statistical significance applied to the numbers and often refers to the probability of a
value accurately rejecting the null hypothesis (sometimes referred to as the p-value).

The standard approach[55] is to test a null hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis. A critical region is
the set of values of the estimator that leads to refuting the null hypothesis. The probability of type I error is
therefore the probability that the estimator belongs to the critical region given that null hypothesis is true
(statistical significance) and the probability of type II error is the probability that the estimator does not
belong to the critical region given that the alternative hypothesis is true. The statistical power of a test is the
probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false.

Referring to statistical significance does not necessarily mean that the overall result is significant in real
world terms. For example, in a large study of a drug it may be shown that the drug has a statistically
significant but very small beneficial effect, such that the drug is unlikely to help the patient noticeably.

Although in principle the acceptable level of statistical significance may be subject to debate, the
significance level is the largest p-value that allows the test to reject the null hypothesis. This test is logically
equivalent to saying that the p-value is the probability, assuming the null hypothesis is true, of observing a
result at least as extreme as the test
statistic. Therefore, the smaller the
significance level, the lower the
probability of committing type I error.

Some problems are usually associated

with this framework (See criticism of
hypothesis testing):

A difference that is highly

statistically significant can still
be of no practical significance,
but it is possible to properly
formulate tests to account for
this. One response involves
going beyond reporting only
the significance level to include
the p-value when reporting
whether a hypothesis is
rejected or accepted. The p-
value, however, does not
indicate the size or importance
of the observed effect and can
also seem to exaggerate the In this graph the black line is probability distribution for the test
importance of minor differences statistic, the critical region is the set of values to the right of the
in large studies. A better and observed data point (observed value of the test statistic) and the p-
increasingly common approach value is represented by the green area.
is to report confidence
intervals. Although these are
produced from the same calculations as those of hypothesis tests or p-values, they describe
both the size of the effect and the uncertainty surrounding it.
Fallacy of the transposed conditional, aka prosecutor's fallacy: criticisms arise because the
hypothesis testing approach forces one hypothesis (the null hypothesis) to be favored, since
what is being evaluated is the probability of the observed result given the null hypothesis
and not probability of the null hypothesis given the observed result. An alternative to this
approach is offered by Bayesian inference, although it requires establishing a prior
probability.[59]
Rejecting the null hypothesis does not automatically prove the alternative hypothesis.
As everything in inferential statistics it relies on sample size, and therefore under fat tails p-
values may be seriously mis-computed.

Examples

Some well-known statistical tests and procedures are:

Analysis of variance (ANOVA)

Chi-squared test
Correlation
Factor analysis
Mann–Whitney U
Mean square weighted deviation (MSWD)
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient
 Regression analysis
Spearman's rank correlation coefficient
Student's t-test
Time series analysis
Conjoint Analysis

Exploratory data analysis

Exploratory data analysis (EDA) is an approach to analyzing data sets to summarize their main
characteristics, often with visual methods. A statistical model can be used or not, but primarily EDA is for
seeing what the data can tell us beyond the formal modeling or hypothesis testing task.

Misuse
Misuse of statistics can produce subtle but serious errors in description and interpretation—subtle in the
sense that even experienced professionals make such errors, and serious in the sense that they can lead to
devastating decision errors. For instance, social policy, medical practice, and the reliability of structures like
bridges all rely on the proper use of statistics.

Even when statistical techniques are correctly applied, the results can be difficult to interpret for those
lacking expertise. The statistical significance of a trend in the data—which measures the extent to which a
trend could be caused by random variation in the sample—may or may not agree with an intuitive sense of
its significance. The set of basic statistical skills (and skepticism) that people need to deal with information
in their everyday lives properly is referred to as statistical literacy.

There is a general perception that statistical knowledge is all-too-frequently intentionally misused by finding
ways to interpret only the data that are favorable to the presenter.[60] A mistrust and misunderstanding of
statistics is associated with the quotation, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics".
Misuse of statistics can be both inadvertent and intentional, and the book How to Lie with Statistics,[60] by
Darrell Huff, outlines a range of considerations. In an attempt to shed light on the use and misuse of
statistics, reviews of statistical techniques used in particular fields are conducted (e.g. Warne, Lazo, Ramos,
and Ritter (2012)).[61]

Ways to avoid misuse of statistics include using proper diagrams and avoiding bias.[62] Misuse can occur
when conclusions are overgeneralized and claimed to be representative of more than they really are, often
by either deliberately or unconsciously overlooking sampling bias.[63] Bar graphs are arguably the easiest
diagrams to use and understand, and they can be made either by hand or with simple computer
programs.[62] Unfortunately, most people do not look for bias or errors, so they are not noticed. Thus,
people may often believe that something is true even if it is not well represented.[63] To make data gathered
from statistics believable and accurate, the sample taken must be representative of the whole.[64] According
to Huff, "The dependability of a sample can be destroyed by [bias]... allow yourself some degree of
skepticism."[65]

To assist in the understanding of statistics Huff proposed a series of questions to be asked in each case:[60]

Who says so? (Does he/she have an axe to grind?)

How does he/she know? (Does he/she have the resources to know the facts?)
What's missing? (Does he/she give us a complete picture?)
 Did someone change the subject? (Does he/she offer us the right answer to the wrong
problem?)
Does it make sense? (Is his/her conclusion logical and consistent with what we already
know?)

Misinterpretation: correlation

The concept of correlation is particularly noteworthy for the potential

confusion it can cause. Statistical analysis of a data set often reveals
that two variables (properties) of the population under consideration
tend to vary together, as if they were connected. For example, a study
of annual income that also looks at age of death, might find that poor
people tend to have shorter lives than affluent people. The two
variables are said to be correlated; however, they may or may not be
The confounding variable
the cause of one another. The correlation phenomena could be caused
problem: X and Y may be
by a third, previously unconsidered phenomenon, called a lurking
correlated, not because there is
variable or confounding variable. For this reason, there is no way to
causal relationship between
immediately infer the existence of a causal relationship between the
them, but because both depend
two variables. on a third variable Z. Z is called a
confounding factor.
Applications

Applied statistics, theoretical statistics and mathematical statistics

Applied statistics, sometimes referred to as Statistical science,[66] comprises descriptive statistics and the
application of inferential statistics.[67][68] Theoretical statistics concerns the logical arguments underlying
justification of approaches to statistical inference, as well as encompassing mathematical statistics.
Mathematical statistics includes not only the manipulation of probability distributions necessary for deriving
results related to methods of estimation and inference, but also various aspects of computational statistics
and the design of experiments.

Statistical consultants can help organizations and companies that do not have in-house expertise relevant to
their particular questions.

Machine learning and data mining

Machine learning models are statistical and probabilistic models that capture patterns in the data through use
of computational algorithms.

Statistics in academia

Statistics is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, including natural and social sciences,
government, and business. Business statistics applies statistical methods in econometrics, auditing and
production and operations, including services improvement and marketing research.[69] A study of two
journals in tropical biology found that the 12 most frequent statistical tests are: analysis of variance
(ANOVA), chi-squared test, Student's t-test, linear regression, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, Mann-
Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Shannon’s diversity index, Tukey's range test, cluster analysis,
Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and principal component analysis.[70]

A typical statistics course covers descriptive statistics, probability, binomial and normal distributions, test of
hypotheses and confidence intervals, linear regression, and correlation.[71] Modern fundamental statistical
courses for undergraduate students focus on correct test selection, results interpretation, and use of free
statistics software.[70]

Statistical computing

The rapid and sustained increases in computing power starting

from the second half of the 20th century have had a substantial
impact on the practice of statistical science. Early statistical
models were almost always from the class of linear models, but
powerful computers, coupled with suitable numerical
algorithms, caused an increased interest in nonlinear models
(such as neural networks) as well as the creation of new types,
such as generalized linear models and multilevel models.

Increased computing power has also led to the growing

popularity of computationally intensive methods based on
resampling, such as permutation tests and the bootstrap, while gretl, an example of an open source
techniques such as Gibbs sampling have made use of Bayesian statistical package
models more feasible. The computer revolution has
implications for the future of statistics with a new emphasis on
"experimental" and "empirical" statistics. A large number of both general and special purpose statistical
software are now available. Examples of available software capable of complex statistical computation
include programs such as Mathematica, SAS, SPSS, and R.

Business statistics

In business, "statistics" is a widely used management- and decision support tool. It is particularly applied in
financial management, marketing management, and production, services and operations management
.[72][73] Statistics is also heavily used in management accounting and auditing. The discipline of
Management Science formalizes the use of statistics, and other mathematics, in business. (Econometrics is
the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic
relationships.)

A typical "Business Statistics" course is intended for business majors, and covers [74] descriptive statistics
(collection, description, analysis, and summary of data), probability (typically the binomial and normal
distributions), test of hypotheses and confidence intervals, linear regression, and correlation; (follow-on)
courses may include forecasting, time series, decision trees, multiple linear regression, and other topics from
business analytics more generally. See also Business mathematics §  University level. Professional
certification programs, such as the CFA, often include topics in statistics.

Statistics applied to mathematics or the arts

Traditionally, statistics was concerned with drawing inferences using a semi-standardized methodology that
was "required learning" in most sciences. This tradition has changed with the use of statistics in non-
inferential contexts. What was once considered a dry subject, taken in many fields as a degree-requirement,
is now viewed enthusiastically. Initially derided by some mathematical purists, it is now considered
essential methodology in certain areas.

In number theory, scatter plots of data generated by a distribution function may be

transformed with familiar tools used in statistics to reveal underlying patterns, which may
then lead to hypotheses.
Predictive methods of statistics in forecasting combining chaos theory and fractal geometry
can be used to create video works.[75]
The process art of Jackson Pollock relied on artistic experiments whereby underlying
distributions in nature were artistically revealed.[76] With the advent of computers, statistical
methods were applied to formalize such distribution-driven natural processes to make and
analyze moving video art.
Methods of statistics may be used predicatively in performance art, as in a card trick based
on a Markov process that only works some of the time, the occasion of which can be
predicted using statistical methodology.
Statistics can be used to predicatively create art, as in the statistical or stochastic music
invented by Iannis Xenakis, where the music is performance-specific. Though this type of
artistry does not always come out as expected, it does behave in ways that are predictable
and tunable using statistics.

Specialized disciplines
Statistical techniques are used in a wide range of types of scientific and social research, including:
biostatistics, computational biology, computational sociology, network biology, social science, sociology
and social research. Some fields of inquiry use applied statistics so extensively that they have specialized
terminology. These disciplines include:

Actuarial science (assesses risk in the insurance and finance industries)

Applied information economics
Astrostatistics (statistical evaluation of astronomical data)
Biostatistics
Chemometrics (for analysis of data from chemistry)
Data mining (applying statistics and pattern recognition to discover knowledge from data)
Data science
Demography (statistical study of populations)
Econometrics (statistical analysis of economic data)
Energy statistics
Engineering statistics
Epidemiology (statistical analysis of disease)
Geography and geographic information systems, specifically in spatial analysis
Image processing
Jurimetrics (law)
Medical statistics
Political science
Psychological statistics
 Reliability engineering
Social statistics
Statistical mechanics

In addition, there are particular types of statistical analysis that have also developed their own specialised
terminology and methodology:

Bootstrap / jackknife resampling

Multivariate statistics
Statistical classification
Structured data analysis
Structural equation modelling
Survey methodology
Survival analysis
Statistics in various sports, particularly baseball – known as sabermetrics – and cricket

Statistics form a key basis tool in business and manufacturing as well. It is used to understand measurement
systems variability, control processes (as in statistical process control or SPC), for summarizing data, and to
make data-driven decisions. In these roles, it is a key tool, and perhaps the only reliable tool.

See also
Abundance estimation List of statistics articles
Glossary of probability and statistics List of university statistical consulting
List of academic statistical associations centers
List of important publications in statistics Notation in probability and statistics
List of national and international statistical Statistics education
services World Statistics Day
List of statistical packages (software)

Foundations and major areas of statistics

Foundations of statistics
List of statisticians
Official statistics
Multivariate analysis of variance

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269. doi:10.1111/1467-9884.00187 (https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1467-9884.00187).
ISSN 0039-0526 (https://www.worldcat.org/issn/0039-0526). JSTOR 2681191 (https://www.j
stor.org/stable/2681191). Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20220115160959/https://ww
w.jstor.org/stable/2681191) from the original on 2022-01-15. Retrieved 2022-01-15.
67. Nikoletseas, M.M. (2014) "Statistics: Concepts and Examples." ISBN 978-1500815684
68. Anderson, D.R.; Sweeney, D.J.; Williams, T.A. (1994) Introduction to Statistics: Concepts
and Applications, pp. 5–9. West Group. ISBN 978-0-314-03309-3
69. "Journal of Business & Economic Statistics" (https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes). Journal
of Business & Economic Statistics. Taylor & Francis. Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/2
0200727052958/https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes) from the original on 27 July 2020.
Retrieved 16 March 2020.
70. Natalia Loaiza Velásquez, María Isabel González Lutz & Julián Monge-Nájera (2011).
"Which statistics should tropical biologists learn?" (https://investiga.uned.ac.cr/ecologiaurba
na/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2017/09/JMN-2011-statistics-should-learn.pdf) (PDF).
Revista Biología Tropical. 59: 983–992. Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20201019160
957/https://investiga.uned.ac.cr/ecologiaurbana/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2017/09/JMN-2
011-statistics-should-learn.pdf) (PDF) from the original on 2020-10-19. Retrieved
2020-04-26.
71. Pekoz, Erol (2009). The Manager's Guide to Statistics. Erol Pekoz. ISBN 978-0979570438.
72. "Aims and scope" (https://amstat.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScop
e&journalCode=ubes20). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. Taylor & Francis.
Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20210623194835/https://amstat.tandfonline.com/actio
n/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=ubes20) from the original on 23 June
2021. Retrieved 16 March 2020.
73. "Journal of Business & Economic Statistics" (https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes). Journal
of Business & Economic Statistics. Taylor & Francis. Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/2
0200727052958/https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes) from the original on 27 July 2020.
Retrieved 16 March 2020.
74. Numerous texts are available, reflecting the scope and reach of the discipline in the
business world:
Sharpe, N. (2014). Business Statistics, Pearson. ISBN 978-0134705217
Wegner, T. (2010). Applied Business Statistics: Methods and Excel-Based Applications,
Juta Academic. ISBN 0702172863
Two open textbooks are:
Holmes, L., Illowsky, B., Dean, S. (2017). Introductory Business Statistics (https://open.u
mn.edu/opentextbooks/textbooks/509) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/202106160
84059/https://open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/textbooks/509) 2021-06-16 at the Wayback
Machine
Nica, M. (2013). Principles of Business Statistics (https://open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/te
xtbooks/384) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20210518151122/https://open.umn.e
du/opentextbooks/textbooks/384) 2021-05-18 at the Wayback Machine
75. Cline, Graysen (2019). Nonparametric Statistical Methods Using R (https://www.worldcat.or
g/oclc/1132348139). EDTECH. ISBN 978-1-83947-325-8. OCLC 1132348139 (https://www.
worldcat.org/oclc/1132348139). Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20220515012840/http
s://www.worldcat.org/title/nonparametric-statistical-methods-using-r/oclc/1132348139) from
the original on 2022-05-15. Retrieved 2021-09-16.
76. Palacios, Bernardo; Rosario, Alfonso; Wilhelmus, Monica M.; Zetina, Sandra; Zenit, Roberto
(2019-10-30). "Pollock avoided hydrodynamic instabilities to paint with his dripping
technique" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821064). PLOS ONE. 14 (10):
e0223706. Bibcode:2019PLoSO..1423706P (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019PLoS
O..1423706P). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0223706 (https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.
0223706). ISSN 1932-6203 (https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1932-6203). PMC 6821064 (http
s://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821064). PMID 31665191 (https://pubmed.ncbi.
nlm.nih.gov/31665191).

Further reading
Lydia Denworth, "A Significant Problem: Standard scientific methods are under fire. Will
anything change?", Scientific American, vol. 321, no. 4 (October 2019), pp. 62–67. "The use
of p values for nearly a century [since 1925] to determine statistical significance of
experimental results has contributed to an illusion of certainty and [to] reproducibility crises
in many scientific fields. There is growing determination to reform statistical analysis... Some
[researchers] suggest changing statistical methods, whereas others would do away with a
threshold for defining "significant" results." (p. 63.)
Barbara Illowsky; Susan Dean (2014). Introductory Statistics (https://openstax.org/details/intr
oductory-statistics). OpenStax CNX. ISBN 978-1938168208.
Stockburger, David W. "Introductory Statistics: Concepts, Models, and Applications" (https://
web.archive.org/web/20200528093101/http://psychstat3.missouristate.edu/Documents/Intro
Book3/sbk.htm). Missouri State University (3rd Web ed.). Archived from the original (http://ps
ychstat3.missouristate.edu/Documents/IntroBook3/sbk.htm) on 28 May 2020.
OpenIntro Statistics (https://www.openintro.org/stat/textbook.php?stat_book=os) Archived (htt
ps://web.archive.org/web/20190616110442/https://www.openintro.org/stat/textbook.php?stat
_book=os) 2019-06-16 at the Wayback Machine, 3rd edition by Diez, Barr, and Cetinkaya-
Rundel
Stephen Jones, 2010. Statistics in Psychology: Explanations without Equations (https://web.
archive.org/web/20170215092220/https://books.google.com/books?id=mywdBQAAQBAJ).
Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 978-1137282392.
Cohen, J (1990). "Things I have learned (so far)" (https://web.archive.org/web/20171018181
831/http://moityca.com.br/pdfs/Cohen_1990.pdf) (PDF). American Psychologist. 45 (12):
1304–1312. doi:10.1037/0003-066x.45.12.1304 (https://doi.org/10.1037%2F0003-066x.45.1
2.1304). Archived from the original (http://moityca.com.br/pdfs/Cohen_1990.pdf) (PDF) on
2017-10-18.
Gigerenzer, G (2004). "Mindless statistics". Journal of Socio-Economics. 33 (5): 587–606.
doi:10.1016/j.socec.2004.09.033 (https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.socec.2004.09.033).
Ioannidis, J.P.A. (2005). "Why most published research findings are false" (https://www.ncbi.
nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1855693). PLOS Medicine. 2 (4): 696–701.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040168 (https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0040168).
PMC 1855693 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1855693). PMID 17456002
(https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17456002).

External links
(Electronic Version): TIBCO Software Inc. (2020). Data Science Textbook (https://docs.tibco.
com/data-science/textbook).
Online Statistics Education: An Interactive Multimedia Course of Study (http://onlinestatbook.
com/index.html). Developed by Rice University (Lead Developer), University of Houston
Clear Lake, Tufts University, and National Science Foundation.
 UCLA Statistical Computing Resources (https://web.archive.org/web/20060717201702/htt
p://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/) (archived 17 July 2006)
Philosophy of Statistics (https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/statistics/) from the Stanford
Encyclopedia of Philosophy

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