Reading 4 Common Probability Distributions
Reading 4 Common Probability Distributions
Reading 4 Common Probability Distributions
For a continuous uniform distribution that can take on values only between 2 and 10, the
probability of an outcome:
A) equal to 4 is 11.1%.
B) less than 3 is 12.5%.
C) greater than 5 is 27.5%.
Which of the following portfolios provides the optimal "safety first" return if the minimum
acceptable return is 9%?
1 13 5
2 11 3
3 9 2
A) 2.
B) 3.
C) 1.
A random variable with which of the following probability distributions will have the greatest
probability of an outcome more than two standard deviations from the mean?
A casual laborer has a 70% probability of finding work on each day that she reports to the
day labor marketplace. What is the probability that she will work three days out of five?
A) 0.3087.
B) 0.3192.
C) 0.6045.
A stock portfolio has had a historical average annual return of 12% and a standard deviation
of 20%. The returns are normally distributed. The range –27.2 to 51.2% describes a:
With 60 observations, what is the appropriate number of degrees of freedom to use when
carrying out a statistical test on the mean of a population?
A) 59.
B) 60.
C) 61.
A random variable X is continuous and bounded between zero and five, X:(0 ≤ X ≤ 5). The
cumulative distribution function (cdf) for X is F(x) = x / 5. Calculate P(2 ≤ X ≤ 4).
A) 1.00.
B) 0.50.
C) 0.40.
A grant writer for a local school district is trying to justify an application for funding an after-
school program for low-income families. Census information for the school district shows an
average household income of $26,200 with a standard deviation of $8,960. Assuming that
the household income is normally distributed, what is the percentage of households in the
school district with incomes of less than $12,000?
A) 15.87%.
B) 5.71%.
C) 9.92%.
If a stock decreases from $90 to $80, the continuously compounded rate of return for the
period is:
A) -0.1000.
B) -0.1250.
C) -0.1178.
The probability that a normally distributed random variable will be more than two standard
deviations above its mean is:
A) 0.4772.
B) 0.0228.
C) 0.9772.
Question #14 of 96 Question ID: 1456498
If random variable Y follows a lognormal distribution then the natural log of Y must be:
A) lognormally distributed.
B) normally distributed.
C) denoted as ex.
For a certain class of junk bonds, the probability of default in a given year is 0.2. Whether
one bond defaults is independent of whether another bond defaults. For a portfolio of five
of these junk bonds, what is the probability that zero or one bond of the five defaults in the
year ahead?
A) 0.7373.
B) 0.0819.
C) 0.4096.
1 9% 5%
2 8% 4%
3 7% 3%
Assuming the risk-free rate is 3%, an investor who wants to minimize the probability of
returns less than 5% should choose:
A) Portfolio 2.
B) Portfolio 1.
C) Portfolio 3.
Approximately 34% of the observations fall within plus or minus one standard
A)
deviation of the mean.
B) Kurtosis is equal to 3.
C) The distribution is completely described by its mean and variance.
A food retailer has determined that the mean household income of her customers is
$47,500 with a standard deviation of $12,500. She is trying to justify carrying a line of luxury
food items that would appeal to households with incomes greater than $60,000. Based on
her information and assuming that household incomes are normally distributed, what
percentage of households in her customer base has incomes of $60,000 or more?
A) 15.87%.
B) 2.50%.
C) 5.00%.
A stock increased in value last year. Which will be greater, its continuously compounded or
its holding period return?
An investment has an expected return of 10% with a standard deviation of 5%. If the returns
are normally distributed, the probability of losing money is closest to:
A) 16.0%.
B) 5.0%.
C) 2.5%.
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
Given a normally distributed population with a mean income of $40,000 and standard
deviation of $7,500, what percentage of the population makes between $30,000 and
$35,000?
A) 15.96.
B) 13.34.
C) 41.67.
A random variable that has a countable number of possible values is best described as a:
Question #24 of 96
Question #24 of 96 Question ID: 1456452
A) The number of days of sunshine in the month of May 2006 in a particular city.
B) The rate of return on a real estate investment.
C) Quoted stock prices on the NASDAQ.
Which one of the following statements about the t-distribution is most accurate?
Cumulative Z-Table
z 0.04 0.05
The owner of a bowling alley determined that the average weight for a bowling ball is 12
pounds with a standard deviation of 1.5 pounds. A ball denoted "heavy" should be one of
the top 2% based on weight. Assuming the weights of bowling balls are normally distributed,
at what weight (in pounds) should the "heavy" designation be used?
A) 14.00 pounds.
B) 14.22 pounds.
C) 15.08 pounds.
df 0.050 0.025
df 0.10 0.05
28 1.701 2.048
29 1.699 2.045
30 1.697 2.042
40 1.684 2.021
For a t-distributed test statistic with 30 degrees of freedom, a one-tailed test specifying the
parameter greater than some value and a 95% confidence level, the critical value is:
A) 1.684.
B) 1.697.
C) 2.042.
Assume 30% of the CFA candidates have a degree in economics. A random sample of three
CFA candidates is selected. What is the probability that none of them has a degree in
economics?
A) 0.027.
B) 0.343.
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C) 0.900.
A stock portfolio's returns are normally distributed. It has had a mean annual return of 25%
with a standard deviation of 40%. The probability of a return between -41% and 91% is
closest to:
A) 65%.
B) 90%.
C) 95%.
The mean return of a portfolio is 20% and its standard deviation is 4%. The returns are
normally distributed. Which of the following statements about this distribution are least
accurate? The probability of receiving a return:
For a random variable defined over the interval 0 to 1 that has a cumulative distribution
function of F(x) = x3, the probability of an outcome between 20% and 70% is closest to:
A) 1/4.
B) 1/3.
C) 1/2.
Using Roy's safety-first criteria and a threshold of 4%, select the optimal portfolio.
A) Portfolio X.
B) Portfolio Y.
C) Portfolio Z.
The cumulative distribution function for a random variable X is given in the following table:
x F(x)
5 0.15
10 0.30
15 0.45
20 0.75
25 1.00
The continuously compounded rate of return that will generate a one-year holding period
return of -6.5% is closest to:
A) -5.7%.
B) -6.3%.
C) -6.7%.
Which of the following random variables would be most likely to follow a discrete uniform
distribution?
Which of the following statements about the normal probability distribution is most
accurate?
Sixty-eight percent of the area under the normal curve falls between the mean and
A)
1 standard deviation above the mean.
B) The normal curve is asymmetrical about its mean.
Five percent of the normal curve probability is more than two standard deviations
C)
from the mean.
A multivariate distribution:
A stock that pays no dividend is currently priced at €42.00. One year ago the stock was
€44.23. The continuously compounded rate of return is closest to:
A) –5.04%.
B) +5.17%.
C) –5.17%.
The average amount of snow that falls during January in Frostbite Falls is normally
distributed with a mean of 35 inches and a standard deviation of 5 inches. The probability
that the snowfall amount in January of next year will be between 40 inches and 26.75 inches
is closest to:
A) 68%.
B) 79%.
C) 87%.
Question #48 of 96 Question ID: 1456501
A) negatively skewed.
B) used to model stock prices.
C) bounded below by zero.
Given a holding period return of R, the continuously compounded rate of return is:
A) eR – 1.
B) ln(1 + R).
C) ln(1 + R) – 1.
A multivariate normal distribution that includes three random variables can be completely
described by the means and variances of each of the random variables and the:
An investment has a mean return of 15% and a standard deviation of returns equal to 10%.
If returns are normally distributed, which of the following statements is least accurate? The
probability of obtaining a return:
Possible outcomes for a discrete uniform distribution are the integers 2 to 9 inclusive. What
is the probability of an outcome less than 5?
A) 50.0%.
B) 62.5%.
C) 37.5%.
x F(x)
5 0.14
10 0.25
15 0.86
20 1.00
A) 14%.
B) 39%.
C) 25%.
Which of the following portfolios provides the best "safety first" ratio if the minimum
acceptable return is 6%?
1 13 5
2 11 3
3 9 2
A) 3.
B) 2.
C) 1.
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
John Cupp, CFA, has several hundred clients. The values of the portfolios Cupp manages are
approximately normally distributed with a mean of $800,000 and a standard deviation of
$250,000. The probability of a randomly selected portfolio being in excess of $1,000,000 is:
A) 78.81%.
B) 17.36%.
C) 21.19%.
If X has a normal distribution with μ = 100 and σ = 5, then there is approximately a 90%
probability that:
A) abnormally distributed.
B) defined as ex.
C) normally distributed.
The annual rainfall amount in Yucutat, Alaska, is normally distributed with a mean of 150
inches and a standard deviation of 20 inches. The 90% confidence interval for the annual
rainfall in Yucutat is closest to:
A portfolio manager is looking at an investment that has an expected annual return of 10%
with a standard deviation of annual returns of 5%. Assuming the returns are approximately
normally distributed, the probability that the return will exceed 20% in any given year is
closest to:
A) 0.0%.
B) 2.28%.
C) 4.56%.
A) F-distribution.
B) Normal distribution.
C) Student’s t-distribution.
Approximately 95% of all observations for a normally distributed random variable fall in the
interval:
A) µ ± 3σ.
B) µ ± 2σ.
C) µ ± σ.
There is an 80% probability of rain on each of the next six days. What is the probability that
it will rain on exactly two of those days?
A) 0.15364.
B) 0.01536.
C) 0.24327.
The mean and standard deviation of returns on three portfolios are listed below in
percentage terms:
Using Roy's safety first criteria and a threshold of 3%, which of these is the optimal portfolio?
A) Portfolio X.
B) Portfolio Z.
C) Portfolio Y.
A) 98%.
B) 84%.
C) 34%.
Cumulative z-table:
Monthly sales of hot water heaters are approximately normally distributed with a mean of
21 and a standard deviation of 5. What is the probability of selling 12 hot water heaters or
less next month?
A) 1.80%.
B) 96.41%.
C) 3.59%.
If the investor's minimum acceptable return is 5%, the optimal portfolio using Roy's safety-
first criterion is:
A) Portfolio Z.
B) Portfolio Y.
C) Portfolio X.
A) 9.20%.
B) 9.42%.
C) 9.67%.
A normal distribution has a mean of 10 and a standard deviation of 4. Which of the following
statements is most accurate?
A discount brokerage firm states that the time between a customer order for a trade and the
execution of the order is uniformly distributed between three minutes and fifteen minutes.
If a customer orders a trade at 11:54 A.M., what is the probability that the order is executed
after noon?
A) 0.500.
B) 0.250.
C) 0.750.
A) 45 correlations.
B) 10 correlations.
C) overall correlation.
For a binomial random variable with a 40% probability of success on each trial, the expected
number of successes in 12 trials is closest to:
A) 5.6.
B) 4.8.
C) 7.2.
A dealer in a casino has rolled a five on a single die three times in a row. What is the
probability of her rolling another five on the next roll, assuming it is a fair die?
A) 0.167.
B) 0.200.
C) 0.001.
A client will move his investment account unless the portfolio manager earns at least a 10%
rate of return on his account. The rate of return for the portfolio that the portfolio manager
has chosen has a normal probability distribution with an expected return of 19% and a
standard deviation of 4.5%. What is the probability that the portfolio manager will keep this
account?
A) 0.750.
B) 0.950.
C) 0.977.
Question #78 of 96 Question ID: 1456511
For an F-distribution where both chi-square random variables are based on a sample size of
10, the degrees of freedom in the numerator are:
A) 19.
B) 8.
C) 9.
Three portfolios with normally distributed returns are available to an investor who wants to
minimize the probability that the portfolio return will be less than 5%. The risk and return
characteristics of these portfolios are shown in the following table:
Epps 6% 4%
Flake 7% 9%
Based on Roy's safety-first criterion, which portfolio should the investor select?
A) Grant.
B) Flake.
C) Epps.
If X follows a continuous uniform distribution over the interval 1 < X < 26, the probability that
X is between 5 and 15 is closest to:
A) 10%.
B) 40%.
C) 60%.
The number of days a particular stock increases in a given five-day period is uniformly
distributed between zero and five inclusive. In a given five-day trading week, what is the
probability that the stock will increase exactly three days?
A) 0.167.
B) 0.333.
C) 0.600.
Which statement best describes the properties of Student's t-distribution? The t-distribution
is:
Bill Phillips is developing a Monte Carlo simulation to value a complex and thinly traded
security. Phillips wants to model one input variable to have negative skewness and a second
input variable to have positive excess kurtosis. In a Monte Carlo simulation, Phillips can
appropriately use:
As degrees of freedom increase, the Chi-square and F-distributions most likely become
more:
A) negative.
B) asymmetric.
C) bell shaped.
A random variable follows a continuous uniform distribution over 27 to 89. What is the
probability of an outcome between 34 and 38?
A) 0.0546.
B) 0.0645.
C) 0.0719.
For a given stated annual rate of return, compared to the effective rate of return with
discrete compounding, the effective rate of return with continuous compounding will be:
A) higher.
B) the same.
C) lower.
For a Chi-square distribution with a sample size of 10 the degrees of freedom are:
A) 10.
B) 9.
C) 8.
A) -13.84%.
B) -16.09%.
C) -14.86%.
A) negative one.
B) zero.
C) negative infinity.
Approximately 68% of the observations lie within +/- 1 standard deviation of the
A)
mean.
B) The mean and variance completely define a normal distribution.
C) A normal distribution has excess kurtosis of three.
Which of the following statements regarding the distribution of returns used for asset
pricing models is most accurate?
Lognormal distribution returns are used for asset pricing models because they will
A)
not result in an asset return of less than -100%.
Lognormal distribution returns are used because this will allow for negative returns
B)
on the assets.
Normal distribution returns are used for asset pricing models because they will only
C)
allow the asset price to fall to zero.
A) A univariate distribution.
B) A normal distribution.
C) A binomial distribution.