194 Chapter 4 Probability and Counting Roles 41 Introduction A cynical person once said, “The only two sure things are death and taxes.” This philosophy 1no doubt arose because so much in people's lives is affected by chance, From the time you awake until you go to bed, you make decisions regarding the possible events that are gov~ cerned at least in part by chance. For example, should you carry an umbrella to work today? Will your car battery last until spring? Should you accept that new job? Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event oecurring. Many people are familiar with probability from observing or playing games of chance, such as card games, slot machines, or lotteries. In addition to being used in games of chance, probability theory is used in the fields of insurance, investments, and weather fore- casting and in various other areas. Finally, as stated in Chapter 1, probability is the basis of inferential statistics. For example, predictions are based on probability, and hypotheses are tested by using probability. : ‘The basic concepts of probability are explained in this chapter. These concepts clude probability experiments, sample spaces, the addition and multiplication rsles, and the probabilities of complementary events. Also in this chapter, you will learn the rule for counting, the differences between permutations and combinations, and how to figure out how many different combinations for specific situations exist. Finally, Section 4-5 ex- plains how the counting rules and the probability rules can be used together to solve a wide variety of problems. Sample Spaces and Probability OBJECTIVE @ Determine sample spaces and Sind he xchat of an event, using casscal probability or empirical ‘probability. 42 The theory of probability grew out of the study of various games of chance using coins, dice, and cards. Since these devices lend themselves well to the application of concepts of probability, they will be used in this chapter as examples. This section begins by explain- ing some basic concepts of probability. Then the types of probability and probability rules are discussed. Basic Concepts Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck are called probability experiments. A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes. {An outcome is the result ofa single trial ofa probability experiment. A trial means flipping a coin once, rolling one die once, or the like. When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: head or tail. (Note: We exclude the possibility ‘of acoin landing on its edge.) Inthe roll ofa single die, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, oF 6. In any experiment, the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space. A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. ‘Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here. Toss one coin Head, tal Fall a die 11:2,3,4,5,6 ‘Answer a true/false question | Tue, fase a ‘Toss two coins Head-head, tai-tal, head-taltal-headSection 41 Sample Spaces and Probability 195 It is important to realize that when two coins are tossed, there are four possible out- comes, as previously shown in the fourth experiment. Both coins could fll heads up. Both coins could fall tails up. Coin 1 could fall heads up and coin 2 tails up. Or coin 1 could fall tails up and coin 2 heads up. Heads and tails will be abbreviated as H and T throughout this chapter. EXAMPLE 4-1 Rolling Dice Find the sample space for rolling two dice. Since each die can land in six different ways, and two dice are rolled, the sample space can be presented by a rectangular array, as shown in Figure 4-1. The sample space is the list of pairs of numbers in the chart. FIGURE 4-1 ‘Sample Space fr Fling Two Dice Example 4-1) EXAMPLE 4-2 Drawing Cards Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards: Since there are 4 suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades) and 13 cards for each suit {ace through king), there are 52 outcomes in the sample space. See Figure 4-2. FIGURE 4-2 Sample Space for iawing a Card (ample 4-2) Saeed > > oO oo <€ eo < >-o-< Doo € oo € b Bo. 2 Wath a iBie Ot here eee EXAMPLE 4-3 Gender of Children Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three children, Use B for boy and G for gil. ‘There are two genders, boy and girl, and each child could be either gender. Hence, there are eight possibilities, as shown here. : BBB BBG BGB GBB GGG GGB GBG BGG “3 & eo <€ Ho Bo Oo |e $- B- o- € 5 3 3 i bo Oo $f Oo:196 Chapter 4 Protubility and Cousting Rules [ Historical Note The famous taan astronomer Galileo (15641642) found that ‘sums of 10 and 11 oocur mare often than any ther sum wien three dice are tossed, Previ- usyy, twas thought that a sumof 9 occured ‘mere often than any other sum, I Historical Note ‘Ammatboratican named ‘Jerome Cardan (1501-1576) used his talents in mathematics ‘and probabilty theory to make his lving as a ‘gambler He is thought to be the frst person to for- ulate the definition of lassical probably In Examples 4-1 through 4-3, the sample spaces were found by observation and rea- soning; however, another way to find all possible outcomes of a probability experiment is touse a tree diagram. ‘Attree diagram is a device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting Point and also from the outcome point. I is used to determine all possible outcomes: of a probability experiment. EXAMPLE 4~4 Gender of Children Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender of three children in a family, as in Example 4-3. Since there are two possibilities (boy or girl for the first child, draw two branches from a starting point and label one B and the other G. Then if the first child is a boy, there are two possibilities for the second child (boy or girl), so draw two branches from B and label one B and the other G. Do the same if the first child is a girl. Follow the same pro- cedure for the third child, The completed tree diagram is shown in Figure 43. To find the outcomes for the sample space, trace through all the possible branches, beginning at the starting point for each one FIGURE 4-3 Tiee Diagram for Beample 4-4 Thirt +isy child Outeomes chil. 8 88 e eG 8 eae 6 06 6 coe 8 68 prbsra0 ee nts — ot op ee ee anes An outcome was defined previously as the result of a single trial of a probability experiment. In many problems, one must find the probability of two or more outcomes. For this reason, itis necessary to distinguish between an outcome and an event. ‘An event consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.Historical Note During the mid-1600s, a professional gambler named Chevaler de IMésé made a consid- erable amount of money on a gambling game, He woud bet unsuspecting patrons that in four rls of adi, he could got at least one 6. He was so successful atthe game that some people refused to play. He de Cited that a new game was necessary to con- tinue his winnings. By reasoning, he figured he ould rl atleast one ‘double 6 in 24 rls of ‘wo dice, but his reason- ing was incarect and he lost systematicaly. Unable to figure out wy, he contacted ‘a mathematician named Blaise Pascal (16231662) to fin outwit Pascal became interested and began studying probaiity theory. He corresponded witha French gover- ment official, Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665), whose hobby was ‘mathemati, Together the two formuatod the beginnings of probity theory. { | | | | ‘Section 4-1. Sample Spaces and Probabilty 197 ‘An event can be one outcome or more than one outcome. For example, if a die is rolled and a6 shows, this resultis called an outcome, since its a result ofa single trial. An event with one outcome is called a simple event. The event of getting an odd number when a die is rolled is called a compound event, since it consists of three outcomes or three simple events. In general, a compound event consists of two or more outcomes or simple events, ‘There are three basic interpretations of probability 1. Classical probability 2. Empirical or relative frequency probability 3. Subjective probability Classical Probability Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen, You do not actually have to perform the experiment to determine that probability. Classical probability is so named because it was the first type of probability studied formally by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries. Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur: For example, when a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same prob- ability of occurring, Since there are six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of When a card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 cards, you assume that the deck has been shuffled, and each card has the same probability of being selected. In this case, itis 4 Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring, Formi eee ‘The probability of any event Fis Number of outcomes in £ ‘Total number of outcomes in the sample space ‘This probability is denoted by ni) PE) nS) ‘whet Hs the numberof oteomes in E and n(S) she numberof outcomes inthe sample pars: Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or—where appropriate— percentages. If you ask, “What is the probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed” ‘typical responses can be any of the following three, “One-half.” “Point five.” “Fifty percent”! These answers are all equivalent. In most cases, the answers to examples and exercises given in this chapter are expressed as fractions or decimals, but percentages are used where appropriate. 'swty peaking percent nota rbubiiy. However, nerdy language, probabilities ar fen opened spree (Gecheetsa0br chance ofa omer). Foristeasin se rauies wl be expres as pres hoa hs bokI Historical Note ‘Ancient Greeks and Romans made crude dice from animal bones, various stones, minerals, ‘and ory. When the dice ‘were tested mathemat- cally some were found tobe quite accurate, ye ee a Rounding Rule for Probabilities _ Probabilities should be expressed as reduced frac- tions or rounded to three decimal places. When the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, itis permissible to round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after the Point. For example, 0.000587 would be 0.00006. When obtaining probabilities from one Of the tables in Appendix A, use the number of decimal places given in the table. If deci ‘mals are converted to percentages to express probabilities, move the decimal point two places to the right and add a percent sign. EXAMPLE 4-5 Drawing Cards Find the probability of geting a red fave card Gack, queen, or king) when randomly drawing a card from an ordinary deck, ‘There are 52 cards in an ordinary deck of cards, and there are 6 red face cards (jack, ‘queen, and king of hearts and jack, queen, and king of diamonds). Hence, the probability of getting a red face card is 3 sping MLS EXAMPLE 4-6 Gender of Children If a family has three children, find the probability that exactly two of the three children are girls. ‘The sample space for the gender of the children for a family with three children has eight outcomes, that is, BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG. (See Examples 4-3 and 4-4.) Since there are three ways to have two girls, namely, GGB, GBG, and BGG, P(two girls) ee, In probability theory, itis important to understand the meaning of the words and and or For example, if you were asked to find the probability of getting a queen and a heart when you were drawing a single card from a deck, you would be looking for the queen of hearts. Here the word and means “at the same time.” The word or has two meanings. For example, if you were asked to find the probability of selecting a queen or a heart when ‘one card is selected from a deck, you would be looking for one of the 4 queens or one of the 13 hearts. In this case, the queen of hearts would be included in both cases and counted twice. So there would be 4 + 13 ~ 1 = 16 possibilities, On the other hand, if you were asked to find the probability of getting a queen or a kking, you would be looking for one of the 4 queens or one of the 4 kings. In this case, there would be 4 + 4 = 8 possibilities. In the first case, both events can occur at the same time; we say that this is an example of the inclusive ox In the second case, both events ‘cannot occur at the same time, and we say that this is an example of the exclusive on EXAMPLE 4-7 Drawing Cards ‘A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find the probability of getting @ Aking b. The 4 of spades A face card Gack, queen, or king) A ted card Achub RASHistorical Note Paintings in tombs exca- vated in Egypt show that the Eayplans played ‘games of chance. One ‘game called Hounds ‘and Jackals played in 41800 2c. is simitarto the present-day game of ‘Snakes and Ladders. FIGURE 4-4 Range of Probably ‘a. Refer to the sample space in Figure 4-2. There are 4 kings in the event £ and a total of 32 cards; hence, b, Since there is only one 4 of spades, the probability is 1 P(ae) = g5 = 0.019 and spades). So there are 12 face cards; hence, 2 P(face card) = 2 ‘d. There are 26 red cards: 13 diamonds and 13 hearts, Hence, = 0231 | Thre 3 ce i fora at nd he at is art, cbs, aod | | P(fed card) = 25 = 5 = 05 52 ‘e. There are 13 clubs, so the probability of selecting a club is ieee tt 0.25 Nee, ‘There are four basic probability rules. These rules are helpful in solving probability problems, in understanding the nature of probability, and in deciding if your answers to the problems are correct. 1. The probability of any event E is a number (either a fr including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0= P(E) = 1. 2. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in a sample space is 1 3, fan event £ cannot occur (i.e. the event contains no members in the sample space), its prohability is 0. 4, If an event Eis certain, then the probability of Eis ¥ ‘or decimal) between and Rule 1 states that probability values range from 0 to 1. When the probability of an event is close to 0, its occurrence is highly unlikely. When the probability of an event is hear 0.5, there is about a 50-50 chance that the event will occur; and when the probability bf an event is close to I, the event is highly likely to occur. See Figure 44. Impesstte uit ——— | 0-50 1 | ee ee aa ani Rule 2 can be illustrated by the example of rolling a single die. Each outcome in the sample space has a probability off, and the sum of the probabilities ofall the outcomes is 1, as shown, I fs ita es LE Probadity | | i i 1 gen heed ic tea ttChapter Probab and Couoting Rules Rule 3 is illustrated in Example 4-8. Se EXAMPLE 4-8 Rolling a Die When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9. ‘Since the sample space is 1, 2,3, 4, 5, and 6, itis impossible to get a 9. Hence, the probability is P(9) = ¢ = 0. ey = ee Rule 4 states that if P(E) = 1, then the event £ is certain to occur. This rule is illus- trated in Example 4-9. EXAMPLE 4-9 Rolling a Die When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less dian 7? Since all outcomes—I, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than 7, the probability is ‘P(number less than 7) = ‘The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain. Complementary Events ‘Another important concept in probability theory is that of complementary events. When die is rolled, for instance, the sample space consists of the outcomes 1, 2,3. 4,5, and 6. ‘The event F of getting odd numbers consists of the outcomes 1, 3, and 5. The event of not getting an odd number is called the complement of event E, and it consists of the out- comes 2, 4, and 6. ‘The complement of an event E is the sot of outcomes in the sample space that are, Nat included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by E (read “E bar”), Example 4-10 further illustrates the concept of complementary events EXAMPLE 4-10 Finding Complements Find the complement of each event: 4 Selecting a month that has 31 days bs, Selecting a day of the week that begins with the letter T ¢. Rolling two dice and getting a sum that is an odd number . Selecting a letter of the alphabet that is used as a vowel or consonant ‘a, Select a month that has fewer than 31 days, i.e., February, April, June, ‘September, and November. by. Select a day of the week that does not begin with aT, i., Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday. ¢ Rolling two dice and getting a sum that is an even number, j<., a sum of 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, or 12, 4. Since y is the only letter that is used as a vowel or a consonant, the complement is selecting a letter other than y.FIGURE 4-5 Yen Diagram forthe Probabity and ‘Complement Section 4-1 Sample Spaces und Probability 201 ‘The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the complement make up the entire sample space. For example, if two eoins are tossed, the sample space is HH, HT, TH, and TT. The complement of “getting all heads” is not “getting all tails.” since the event ” all heads’ is HIH, and the complement of HH is HT, TH, and TT. Hence, the complement of the event “all heads” is the event “getting at least one tail” Since the event and its complement make up the entire sample space, it follows ‘that the sum of the probability of the event and the probability of its complement will equal 1, That is, P(E) + PE) = 1. For example, let £ = all heads, or HH, and jet E = at least one tail, or HT, TH, TL. Then P(E)=4 PE) + PE) = 444 "The rule for complementary events can be stated algebraically in three ways. trees PE) = 1— PE) Stated in words, the rule is: Ifthe probability of an event or the probability af its co? plement is known, then the other can be found by subtracting the probability from 1. This Fate is important in probability theory because at times the best solution to a problem is to find the probability of the complement of an event and then subtract from 1 to get the probability of the event itself, Probabilities can be represented pictorially by Venn diagrams. Figure 4~5(a) shows the probability of a simple event E, The area inside the circle represents the probability of event E, that is, P(E). The area inside the rectangle represents the probability of all the events in the sample space P(S). eTThe Venn diagram that represents the probubility of the complement of an event PG) is shown in Figure 4-5(b). In this case, P(E) = 1 — P(E), which is the area inside the rectangle but outside the circle representing P(E). Recall that P(S) 1 — PE). The reasoning is that P(B) is represented by the area of the ci the probability of the events that are outside the circle. 3 Ale) (2) Simple probaity (0) PCE) =1~ PE) Se eee ae —___—— EXAMPLE 4-11 Favorite Ice Cream Flavors | Ina study, it was found that 23% of the people surveyed said that vanilla was their | favorite flavor of ice ream, [fa person is selected at random, find the probability that the person's favorite flavor of ie cream is not vanilla | Sons Rasmus Report PsOLUTION| Pinot vanilla) = 1 — P(vanilla) = 1-023 $0.77 =77%202 ‘Chapter 4 Probability and Counting Rules ‘The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical probability assumes that certain outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is rolled), while empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes. In empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000 times. ‘observe the Various frequencies, and use these frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome. Suppose, for example, that a researcher for the American Automobile Association (AAA) asked 50 people who plan to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday how they will get to their destination. The results can be categorized in a frequency distribution as shown, Drive “1 Now probabilities can be computed for various categories. For example, the proba- bility of selecting a person who is driving is $, since 41 outof the 50 people said that they were driving. fatickeeeueeeras Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is frequency for the class F PCE) ~ “ial frequencies in the distribution ‘This probability is called empirical probability and is based on observation. EXAMPLE 4-12 Travel Survey In the travel survey just described, find the probability that a person will travel by airplane over the Thanksgiving holiday. Note: These figures are based on an AAA survey. EXAMPLE 4-13 Distribution of Blood Types Ina sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities. 4. A person has type O blood . A person has type A or type B blood. ¢. A person has neither type A nor type © blood. d. A person does not have type AB blood.Section 4-1, Sample Spaces ind Probability 203 ie ie SET 4 PAB) = 35+ = ae (Add the frequencies of the two classes.) Sa gud Te ¢. P(neither A nor 0) = 0 *3-m (Neither A nor © means that person has either type B or type AB blood.) d. P(not AB) = 1 — P(aB) = 1 — 2 — 48 _ 24 50" 507 25 (Find the probability of not AB by subtracting the probability of type AB from 1.) a L_-EXAMPLE 4-14 “Hospital Stays for Knee Replacements Hospital records indicated that knee replacement patients stayed inthe hospital forthe number of days shown in the distribution Find these probabilities. @ A patient stayed exactly 5 days. _¢. A patient stayed at most 4 days, A patient stayed fewer than 6 days. d. A patient stayed at least 5 days, mn a. Ps) = 38 15 32 56 103 be (fewer than 6 days) “17 = D7 - 717 (Fewer than 6 days means 3, 4, or 5 days.) oak, 2 ar ©. (at most 4 days) = 7 + 177 197 (At most 4 days means 3 or 4 days.) Spee ig ey Ba? ae eee ek ee ee (Atleast 5 days means 5, 6, or 7 days.) eee204 ante Chapter 4 Protability sd Counting Res Empirical probabilities can also be found by using a relative frequency distribution, as shown in Section 2-2. For example, the relative frequency distribution of the travel sur- ‘vey shown previously is “These frequencies are the same as the relative frequencies explained in Chapter 2. Law of Large Numbers ‘When a coin is tossed one time, it is common knowledge that the probability of getting a head is |, But what happens when the coin is tossed 50 times? Will it come up heads 25 times? Not all the time. You should expect about 25 heads if the coin is fair. But due to chance variation, 25 heads will not occur most of the time. Ifthe empirical probability of geting ahead is computed by using a small number of trials itis usually not exactly $. However, as the number of trials increases, the empirical probability of getting a head will approach the theoretical probability of , if in fact the Coin is fair (.e., balanced). This phenomenon is an example of the law of large numbers. "You should be careful to not think that the number of heads and number of tails tend to “even out.” As the number of trials increases, the proportion of heads to the total num- ber of trials will approach 4, This law holds for any type of gambling game—tossing dice, playing roulette, and so on, it should be pointed out that the probabilities thatthe proportions steadily approach may ‘or may not agree with those theorized in the classical model. If not, itcan have important im- plications, such as the die is not fair” Pit bosses in Las Vegas watch for empirical trends that Go not agree with classical theories, and they will sometimes take a set of dice out of play if “observed frequencies are too far out of line with classical expected frequencies. Subjective Probability ‘The third type of probability is called subjective probability: Subjective probability uses 1 probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inex- act information, In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated guess at the chance that an event will occur. This guess is based on the person's experience and evaluation of ‘a solution, For example, a sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that the Pirates will win the pennant next year. A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need an operation. A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an earthquake will occur in a certain area. These are only a few examples of how subjective probability is used in everyday life. ‘All three types of probability (classical, empirical, and subjective) are used to solve @ variety of problems in business, engineering, and other fields. Probability and Risk Taking. ‘An area in which people fail to understand probability is risk taking. Actually, people fear situations or events that have a relatively small probability of happening rather than those events that have a greater likelihood of occurring. For example, many people think that the crime rate is increasing every year. However, in his book entitled How Risk Affects Your Evervday Life, author James Walsh states: “Despite widespread concern about the ‘number of crimes committed in the United States, FBI and Justice Department statistics show that the national crime rate has remained fairly level for 20 years. It even dropped slightly in the early 1990s.”