Ref-Ann and Its Applications in Power System
Ref-Ann and Its Applications in Power System
P
arts 1 and 2 of this series of three
articles outlined, respectively, the this is principally because the supervised
underlying concepts of ANNs and a learning associated with the MLP is superior in
description of the different types of terms of accuracy compared with either the KN
ANNs in use today. ANNs represent a growing or HN. However, as shown later, it is important
new technology as indicated by the wide variety to appreciate that unsupervised networks, such
of applications, such as remote sensing, as the KN, are being increasingly employed as a
control, forecasting, pattern recognition etc. data set preprocessing step; this reduces thLe size
The main reasons for this growing activity are of training data requirements before the
the ability of ANNs to learn complex non-linear network handles the data characteristics with
relationships and their modular structures, supervised learning. The overall training of the
which allow parallel processing. ANNs have ANN is also significantly expedited.
been shown to be useful in solving algorithmic- There are now widespread applications of 1 Characteristics of
type problems and, more importantly, in ANNs in power systems. However, this tutorial power system problems
dealing with problems for which algorithms are
not available but significant data is at hand.
In the areas of power systems, problems and
their formulation may be expressed in different
ways depending on their nature, as shown in
Fig.1. Among these factors, the non-linear and
large-scale systems generally make power
system problems more difficult to solve. In this
respect, no suitable analytical technology is
available to deal with this complexity and an
ANN offers a promising and attractive tool for
dealing with this level of intricacy
Of the three most common types of ANNs,
namely multi-layer, perceptron (MLP),
Kohonen network (KN) and Hopfield network
(HN), the MLP has hitherto been the
deals with only a few specific problems namely, approaches. One treats the load demand as a
load forecasting, fault classification, voltage time series signal and predicts the load using
stability, economic dispatch and design of different time-series analysis techniques. The
voltage stabilisers, in some detail. Emphasis is second method is a regression technique which
placed on some practical aspects of ANN recognises the fact that the load demand is
design, in particular: the selection of the heavily dependent on weather conditions.
appropriate ANN architecture; the selection of However, such traditional techniques often do
a training data set in terms of both training not give sufficientlyaccurate results. One major
requirements and the selection of the most drawback of the time series is that it does not
significant features; the learning scheme; and utilise weather conditions. The main problem
finally performance evaluation. The goal is with the regression technique is that it
accomplished by presenting and analysing data unjustifiably assumes a linear relationship
attained from typical power systems. between weather conditions and load demand.
Conversely,complex algorithmic methods with
Short-term load forecasting using a multi- heavy computational burden can slow the
layer perceptron convergence and in certain cases may cause
Forecasting electrical loads in a power system divergence.
with lead times varying from a few minutes to One very attractive approach to the problem
hours to days has obvious economic as well as of accurate load forecast is using an ANN; this
other advantages. The forecast information can is because an ANN can combine both time
be used to aid optimal energy interchange series and regression approaches to predict the
between utilities, thereby saving valuable fuel load demand. A functional relationship
costs. Forecasts also significantly influence between weather variables and electrical load is
important system operations decisions such as not needed. This is because the ANN can
dispatch, unit commitment and maintenance technically generate this functional
scheduling. For these reasons, considerable relationship by learning and training data. In
efforts are being invested in the development of other words, the non-linear mapping between
accurate load forecasting techniques. the inputs and outputs is implicitly embedded
In this article, we will concentrate on the in the ANN.
problem of short-term forecasting up to 24 We will now discuss one specific ANN-based
hours ahead. These load forecasts play a crucial load forecasting approach which combines
role in optimum unit commitment, start up and both time series and regression approaches.
shut down of thermal plant, control of spinning The algorithm utilises an ANN based on the
reserve, and buying and selling of power in MLP architecture. As is the case with the time-
of a three- interconnected systems. series approach, the ANN traces previous load
layered perceptron type Most of the conventional techniques used in patterns and predicts (i.e. extrapolates) a load
ANN load forecasting can be categorised under two pattern using recent load data. The algorithm
also uses weather information for modelling
and the ANN is able to perform non-linear
modelling and adaptation. One of the principle
advantages over conventional techniques is
that it does not require the assumption of any
functional relationship between load and
weather variables in advance. The ANN can be
adapted by exposing it to new data.
As discussed in the second article (February
1998 PEJ), an ANN can be defined as a highly
connected array of elementary processes called
neurons. Fig. 2 is an example of the widely used
MLP-type ANN employed in the application
considered here. A total of Q sets of training
data are assumed to be available. Inputs .of (il,
iz, ..., i ~ are
) imposed on top (Le. input) layer.
The ANN is trained to respond to the
corresponding target vector (tl, t2, ..., te) on the
bottom (i.e. output) layer. The training
continues until a certain error criterion is simply one large ANN. The selected input/
satisfied. Typically, the training is halted when output variables for the ANN are given in Table
the average error between the desired and 1.
actual outputs of the ANN over the Q training The chosen input variables are very
data sets is less than a predetermined threshold. informative by virtue of the fact that they
The training time is dictated by various implicitly reflect possible weather changes. The
elements including the complexity of the number of training patterns presented to the
problem, the volume data, the network ANNs is important as it can have a signiificant
structure and the training parameters used. bearing on forecast accuracy. In this case study,
In the application considered here, an ANN 360 training patterns were used for the
is trained to recognise and predict the load weekday model and 290 for the weekend
demand for England and Wales. In this respect, model.
Fig. 3 typifies the load demand over a 24 hour The ANNs were comprised of the MLP and
period for four seasons. It is apparent that the were based on the standard error-back-
most obvious difference in load demand occurs propagation (EBP) training algorithm; the
in summer and winter. The daily peak load in epochs and the hidden neurons were varied
winter can be as high as 45 000 MW compared from 5000-15000 and 2-9, respectively The
to 33000 MW in summer. The differences in best MLP was obtained by comparative cross-
load demand for autumn and spring are not that validation amongst several MLPs. The
discernible since these seasons represent measurement of forecasting performances was
transitional periods in which there is a gradual
change in load conditions from one season to Table 1 Inputloutput variables for the ANN (24-
the other. Moreover, the weekday (Monday to hour lead time)
Friday) electricity demands are much higher
than those during weekends (Saturday and
Sunday).
Based on the analyses of load demand
patterns, a year is partitioned into four seasonal
periods with equal time intervals. Each
seasonal period is further divided into two day
types, weekdays and weekends. Independent where LM(d,t)= (L(d-7,t) + L(d-14,t) + L(d-21,t))./3
forecast models are then developed for each reflects the load demand on day d at hour t
season and for each day type by utilising only indicates the daily load changes
the load information of the respective group. provides the weekly trend of load demand
With this approach, the performance attained is changes on day d at hour t
much superior than would be the case if the makes use of the average of the same three
whole problem were to be encapsulated in days at hour t i n the previous 3 weeks
7 CUS-based network
architecture
11 3D picture of
weight vectors
corresponding to input
reactive power loss
12 Value of energy power flow analysis. position of the fired neuron indicates the degree
function against number From the viewpoint of voltage stability, the of voltage stability On the other hand, weight
of iterations
left top corner of the output map and its nearby vectors of the fired neuron associated with each
13 Generations of
neurons classify the weakest operating load bus input can be used to rank the buses.
units against number of conditions whereby the critical zone covers For example, the ranking of weak buses from
iterations more buses. Although there are no the weak to the strong (under base load
misclassifications between clusters A and B, conditions) with neuron 8 fired is: bus 30, bus
they do occur between clusters B and C 26, bus 29, bus 24, bus 23 etc.
whereby six vectors out of 80 cases belonging
to cluster B are classified into cluster C. Hopfield neural networks for solving power
For the trained KN, the properties of the system economic dispatch problems
clusters can be further explained by There are a large number of different
analysing the weight vectors of the neurons combinatorial optimisation problems facing
in the clusters corresponding to the reactive electricity utilities. The deregulation of the
power loss input. For a given cluster, the electricity supply industry worldwide adds
weight vectors of the corresponding neurons ever-growing motivations to develop new
represent the operating conditions with optimisation algorithms so as to design the
similar voltage stability. Fig. 11 shows the best strategies for most effectivelyutilising the
component values corresponding to total assets under increasing commercial pressures.
reactive power loss of weight vectors of each Various algorithmic and heuristic approaches
Kohonen neuron. It is apparent that the have been adopted or investigated by power
classification is consistent with the engineers. In particular, for the last few years
indication of total reactive power loss. For there has been a growing interest in
example, neuron 133 and its neighbours algorithms inspired by the observation of
classify voltage unstable operating natural phenomena to help solve complex
conditions, while neuron 12 and its computational problems. In this respect, HNs
neighbours classify voltage stable operating have been applied to power system optimisa-
conditions. However, the relationship is tion problems. Herein, the application in
nonlinear in nature. Note that the bottom solving a power system economic dispatch
wall of the three-dimensional picture stands problem is presented. The basic requirement
for a two-dimensional neuron grid and 144 of power economic dispatch is to generate
neurons are shown on it. adequate electricity to meet continuously
When a test vector is input into the trained changing customer load demand at the lowest
KN, one of the neurons in the Kohonen layer possible cost under a number of constraints.
will be fired. From the foregoing discussion, the Essentially, in applying HNs for solving