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Development of Data Analytics Model on the Economy of a State Project report submitted to Visvesvaraya National
Institute of Technology, Nagpur in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree

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Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science and Engineering By Lokesh Sawai (BT19CSE058) Subodh Patil
(BT19CSE080) Vighnesh Raut (BT19CSE094) Ansh Watore (BT19CSE123) under the guidance of DR. A. S. Mokhade
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology Nagpur 440 010 (India)
Year 2022/23 Development of Data Analytics Model on the Economy of a State

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Project report submitted to Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur in partial fulfilment of the requirements
for the award of the degree Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science and Engineering

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By Lokesh Sawai (BT19CSE058) Subodh Patil (BT19CSE080) Vighnesh Raut (BT19CSE094) Ansh Watore
(BT19CSE123) under the guidance of DR. A. S. Mokhade Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology Nagpur 440 010 (India) © Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology
(VNIT) 2022 Department of Computer Science and Engineering

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Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur Declaration We, Subodh Patil, Lokesh Sawai, Ansh Wathore &
Vighnesh Raut, hereby declare that this project work titled “Development of Data Analytics Model on the Economy

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of a State” is carried out by us in the Department of Computer Science And Engineering of Visvesvaraya National
Institute of Technology, Nagpur. The work is original and has not been submitted earlier whole or in part for the award of
any degree/diploma at this or any other Institution/University.

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Lokesh Sawai Subodh Patil Vighnesh Raut Ansh Wathore Date :Certificate This to certify that the project titled
“Development of Data Analytics Model on the Economy of a State”, submitted by Subodh Patil, Lokesh Sawai, Ansh
Wathore & Vighnesh Raut in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of
Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science & Engineering, VNIT Nagpur.The work is comprehensive, complete and fit
for final evaluation. Dr. A. S. Mokhade Associate Professor, Computer Science and Engineering Department, VNIT,
Nagpur Dr. P. S. Deshpande Head of Department Computer Science and Engineering Department VNIT, Nagpur Date :

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Acknowledgement We would like to express our heartfelt gratitude towards all the individuals who have helped us
throughout the journey of this project on the topic “Development of Data Analytics Model on the Economy of a State”. It
has been an incredible learning experience for us, and We couldn’t have completed it without the support and
encouragement of many people. We would like to thank our supervisor Dr A.S.Mokhade, who provided us with valuable
guidance, motivation, and resources throughout the project. His insightful feedback, constructive criticism, and timely
inputs have been the driving force behind this project. We would also like to thank the highly esteemed faculty members
at the Computer Science and Engineering Department of VNIT Nagpur for their irreplaceable guidance throughout our
graduation. We feel privileged to have interacted with these professors.
Abstract The objective of this project is to develop a data analytics model to analyse the impact of various economic
variables on the financial development of states and to predict
economic crises. The key findings of this project are that the selected economic variables have a significant impact on the
financial development of states, and the machine learning algorithms can accurately predict economic crises with high
accuracy. Furthermore, the neural network model outperformed the linear regression model in terms of accuracy,
indicating that complex relationships exist between economic variables and financial development.
In conclusion, the development of a data analytics model using machine learning algorithms can aid in predicting
economic crises and understanding the impact of economic variables on financial development. This can help
policymakers in making informed decisions regarding economic policies, which can ultimately contribute to the
sustainable economic development of states ⅰ List of figures Figure Description Page no.
2.1 Historic GDP values of major economies from 2001 - 2010 14 2.2 Inflation rates of major economies from 2000 - 2016
(Every 2 year cycle) 15 2.3 Data analysis model 16
3.1 Dataset Before Preprocessing 21 3.2 Dataset after preprocessing 22 3.3 Metrics for evaluating the model 23 3.4
Example of GDP value prediction obtained for sample input 24 3.5 Coefficient plot 25
3.6 Heat map of actual vs predicted values 26 3.7 Scatter plot predicted values against actual values 27 ⅱ Nomenclature
Variable Description GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund
CPI Consumer Price Index PCA Principal Component Analysis OLS Ordinary Least Squares P/E Ratio Price-to-Earnings
Ratio FRED Federal Reserve Economic Data ⅲ Index
Index...................................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1 THE
PROBLEM............................................................................................................... 2 1.1
Motivation...............................................................................................................2 1.2 Problem
Statement.................................................................................................. 2 CHAPTER 2
BACKGROUND............................................................................................................... 3 2.1
Economics............................................................................................................... 3 2.1.1 Economy of a
state......................................................................................... 3 2.1.2
Variables.........................................................................................................5 2.1.3
Interrelationship............................................................................................. 8 2.2 Data
Analysis.......................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Machine
Learning................................................................................................. 10 CHAPTER 3
DEVELOPMENT........................................................................................................... 12 3.1
Data....................................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Machine
Learning................................................................................................. 14 3.2.1 Linear
Regression.........................................................................................14 3.3
Results...................................................................................................................15 CHAPTER 4
INTERPRETATIONS.....................................................................................................19 CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION................................................................................................................20
REFERENCES................................................................................................................21 1 CHAPTER 1 THE PROBLEM
1.1 Motivation The motivation for this project stems from the significance of the financial sector in a

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country's economy. Economic crises have been a major concern for policymakers and stakeholders globally, and it is vital
to understand their causes and potential remedies to mitigate their adverse effects on the economy. Overall, this project's
motivation lies in the potential impact of developing a data analytics model on economic crisis and financial development
of states, both in terms of its ability to provide valuable insights
into the economy and its potential to inform decision-making processes that can positively impact economic growth and
financial stability. 1.2 Problem Statement The problem statement for the project report on the topic of "Development of
Data Analytics Model on the Economy of a State" is to investigate the impact of economic
variables on the financial development of a state, specifically during times of economic crisis.The project aims to develop
a data analytics model using machine learning algorithms to analyze the impact of economic variables such as GDP,
inflation, unemployment, and trade balance on the financial development of a state. The objective of this model is to
provide insights into the economic factors that affect financial development and to predict the financial development of a
state during times of economic crisis.

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In conclusion, the use of data analytics and machine learning algorithms can provide valuable insights and predictions
that can aid policymakers in developing effective policies and strategies to mitigate the negative impact of economic
crises on financial
development. 2 CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND The research phase of the project involves the identification of the research
problem, review of literature, and formulation of research questions and hypotheses. In this phase, we began by
identifying the research problem, which is to develop a data analytics model that can predict the impact of economic crisis
on the financial development of the state. The next step would be to review existing literature on the subject, which
involves examining relevant research studies, publications, and reports.
The review of literature provided a deeper understanding of the research problem and the factors that influence economic
crisis and financial development. It also helped in identifying gaps in the existing knowledge and provided insights into the
methodology and tools used by previous researchers in developing similar models.
. 2.1 Economics 2.1.1 Economy of a state An economy is a complex system of interrelated production, consumption, and
exchange activities that ultimately determines how resources are allocated among all the

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participants. The production, consumption, and distribution of goods and services combine to fulfil the needs of those
living and operating within the economy. A healthy economy is characterized by high levels of employment, steady
economic growth, and stable prices, among other factors.

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There are various entities and bodies that play important roles in the economy.Here are a few examples like Households.
Businesses are the organizations that produce and sell 3 goods and services in exchange for revenue. They may be
small, local businesses, or large multinational corporations, Financial institutions include banks, credit unions, and other
financial intermediaries that provide loans, manage investments, and facilitate the flow of money in the economy,
Governments are the entities that regulate the economy
through policies such as taxation, monetary policy, and trade agreements, International organizations include entities
such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which provide financial assistance and support to countries
and regions around the
world, Non-profit organizations are organizations that operate for purposes other than making a profit, such as charities,
foundations, and advocacy groups, Consumers are the individuals and organizations that purchase and use goods and
services, and who
ultimately determine the success or failure of businesses and industries. Economic factors can have a significant impact
on other aspects of society, including poverty, inequality, and social mobility. Economic variables and metrics are
quantitative measures used to assess the performance of an economy, monitor economic trends, and inform economic
policies. These variables and metrics provide a way to track key economic indicators, such as production, consumption,
employment, and prices, over time. variables and metrics are closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and
businesses to assess economic conditions and inform decision-making. Understanding these measures is essential for
analyzing economic trends and making informed decisions about economic policies and investments.
4 2.1.2 Variables There are several important economic variables that are relevant to the development of a data analytics
model on economic crisis and financial development of a state. These variables can provide insights into the overall
economic health of a state and help identify potential risks and vulnerabilities. Some important economic variables are: 1.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP is the total value of goods and services produced within a state over a specific
period. It is a key indicator of economic growth and can provide insights into the overall health of the economy.GDP can
be calculated in three ways: the production approach, the expenditure approach, and the income approach. The
production approach measures the value of goods and services produced by all industries in a country. The expenditure
approach measures the value of goods and services purchased by consumers, businesses, and the government. The
income approach measures the value of the income generated by all factors of production in the country.

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GDP can be influenced by a variety of factors, including consumer spending, government spending, investments, net
exports, and inflation. A rising GDP typically indicates that an economy is growing and expanding, while a falling GDP
suggests a contracting or shrinking economy.
Fig 2.1 Historic GDP values of major economies from 2001 - 2010 5 2.Inflation Rates: Inflation is the rate at which the
general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it is an important economic variable that can affect consumer

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purchasing power and economic stability.Inflation is usually measured by calculating the percentage change in the
Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services that are typically
consumed by
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households.Inflation can be caused by various factors such as an increase in the money supply, an increase in demand
for goods and services, a decrease in supply of goods and
services, or an increase in production costs. Fig 2.2 Inflation rates of major economies from 2000 - 2016 (Every 2 year
cycle) 3. Interest Rates: Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are a key economic variable that affects
investment and consumer spending.Interest rates are set by central banks and other financial institutions, and they are
influenced by a variety of factors,

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including inflation, economic growth, government policies, and global financial trends. When interest rates are lowered, it
can stimulate economic growth by making it cheaper for businesses to borrow money to invest in new projects or for
consumers to take out
loans to make purchases. However, lowering interest rates can also lead to inflation if it stimulates too much spending
and borrowing. 6 4. Unemployment Rates: Unemployment rates are the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
and seeking employment. High levels of unemployment can indicate economic weakness and potential risks to the
economy.The unemployment rate is typically reported as a monthly or quarterly percentage and is calculated by dividing
the

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number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force (employed plus unemployed individuals).The labor force
includes individuals who are able to work and are either employed or actively seeking employment.Governments and
policymakers closely monitor the unemployment rate as part of their efforts to manage the economy and

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promote economic growth and stability. The unemployment rate can also be used in economic forecasting and analysis,
such as in predicting future inflation and consumer spending patterns. 5.Consumer spending: It refers to the total amount
of money spent by individuals or households on goods and services. It is a key component of a country's gross domestic
product (GDP), and it is often used as an indicator of the overall health of an economy.

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In addition to being a component of GDP, consumer spending is also influenced by a variety of factors, including
consumer confidence, interest rates, inflation, and government policies. For example, during times of economic
uncertainty, consumers may become more cautious with their spending, while low interest rates may encourage them to
take on more debt and spend more. Government policies, such as tax cuts or stimulus spending, can also have a
significant impact on consumer spending.
6. Government spending : It refers to the amount of money spent by the government on goods, services, and
investments. This includes spending on public goods such as national defense, infrastructure, education, healthcare, and
social welfare programs.
Government spending can have a significant impact on the economy, as it can stimulate economic growth or slow it down.
When the government spends money on public goods and services, it can create jobs and boost economic activity.On
the other hand, if the government spends too much money, it can lead to inflation and increase the national debt.
7 Overall, these economic variables are crucial for the development of a data analytics model on economic crisis and
financial development of a state. Analyzing these variables can provide valuable insights into the economic health of a
state and help policymakers and financial institutions identify potential risks and vulnerabilities.
2.1.3 Interrelationship The economic variables are deeply connected to one another and also to other aspects of the
world. For example, changes in interest rates can affect borrowing and investment, which can in turn impact GDP growth
and employment levels. Similarly, inflation rates can affect consumer spending and savings behavior, which can impact
the overall level of economic activity.
Foreign investment can also impact other economic variables.For instance, a high level of foreign investment can lead to
an increase in job opportunities and overall economic growth, while a low level of foreign investment can lead to a
decrease in economic
activity and potential risks to economic stability. Therefore, the development of a data analytics model on economic crisis
and financial development of a state requires an understanding of the complex interplay between these
economic variables. By analyzing the relationships between these variables, policymakers and financial institutions we
can identify potential risks and vulnerabilities and take proactive steps to address them. This can help promote economic
stability and growth, even in the face of potential economic crises.
8 2.2 Data Analysis Data analysis plays a crucial role in the development of a data analytics model on economic crisis
and financial development of a state. It involves the use of statistical methods and data visualization tools to identify
patterns and relationships between various economic variables. This helps policymakers and financial institutions to
make informed decisions aimed at promoting economic stability and growth.
Fig 2.3 Data analysis model One important aspect of data analysis in this context is the use of time-series analysis.This
involves analyzing data over time to identify trends and patterns in economic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest
rates, unemployment rates, and foreign investment. Time-series analysis can help identify potential risks and
vulnerabilities in the economy, such as cyclical fluctuations in GDP growth rates or changes in the behavior of inflation
rates over time. Data visualization tools, such as graphs and charts, can also play a crucial role in data analysis.They
help to visually represent economic data and identify trends and patterns that may not be immediately apparent from
numerical data. For example, a line graph can be used to represent changes in GDP growth rates over time, while a
scatter plot can be used to represent the relationship between unemployment rates and investment levels.
9 2.3 Machine Learning Machine learning (ML) is a subset of artificial intelligence (AI) that involves the use of statistical
techniques to allow computer systems to learn from data and make predictions

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or decisions without being explicitly programmed. In the context of economics, ML can be used to analyze historical data
and make predictions about future economic trends. ML algorithms can be used to build models that can predict
economic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, unemployment rates, consumer spending, and government
spending based on historical data. These models can take into account the complex relationships and interactions
between different economic variables and provide insights that may be difficult to obtain using traditional statistical
methods.
One of the main advantages of using ML for economic prediction is that it can help to identify patterns and relationships
between variables that may not be immediately apparent to human analysts. This can help to generate more accurate
and reliable predictions, as well as providing new insights into the factors that influence economic trends.
2.3.1 Linear regression Linear regression is a popular and widely used statistical technique for predicting a continuous
dependent variable (or target variable) based on one or more independent variables (or predictors). In the context of
economic variables, linear regression can be used to predict the value of a target variable, such as GDP or inflation,
based on other economic variables, such as interest rates, consumer spending, and government

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spending. The idea behind linear regression is to fit a straight line that best represents the relationship between the
independent variables and the dependent variable. The line is fit by minimizing the sum of the squared differences
between the actual and predicted values of the dependent variable, which is also known as the residual sum of squares

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(RSS). The line that minimizes the RSS is known as the least-squares regression line.The linear regression model can
be used for prediction by inputting values of the independent variables and obtaining the predicted value of the
dependent variable. The 10 model can also be used for inference, such as testing the significance of individual
independent variables or the overall goodness of fit of the model.

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2.3.2 Neural networks Neural networks are a type of machine learning algorithm that is inspired by the structure and
function of the human brain. A neural network is composed of layers of interconnected nodes (also called neurons) that
process and transform information through a series of mathematical operations.
Neural networks can be used for a variety of tasks, including image and speech recognition, natural language processing,
and time series forecasting, which is particularly relevant for economic predictions. They are capable of handling large
amounts of complex data and can learn complex patterns and relationships in the data, making them a powerful tool for
prediction and decision-making. However, they can be computationally intensive and require a significant amount of data
and expertise to train and optimize effectively.

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Neural networks have shown great potential for economic variable prediction, as they can effectively capture nonlinear
relationships between input variables and the output variable. In other words, they can learn to identify complex patterns
and trends in the data that may be difficult or impossible to detect with linear models.
To use neural networks for economic variable prediction, the first step is to collect and preprocess the relevant data.This
may involve selecting the appropriate input and output variables, cleaning and normalizing the data, and splitting the data
into training, validation, and testing sets.

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Next, a neural network model is constructed and trained on the training data using an appropriate optimization algorithm
(e.g., backpropagation). The model is then evaluated on the validation data to tune the model hyperparameters and
prevent overfitting.

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Once the model is trained and validated, it can be used to make predictions on new data by inputting the relevant input
variables and obtaining the corresponding output variable prediction. The accuracy and reliability of the predictions can
be evaluated using metrics such as mean squared error, root mean squared error, and R-squared.

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11 CHAPTER 3 DEVELOPMENT The development phase of the project involves the creation of a system that helps in
the analysis of data of various economic variables and deriving important insights from
patterns found in the data. Following is a brief introduction to all the components of the system.3.1 Data Relevant data
regarding the important economic data is collected and managed.
Following are the operations involved in this section. 1. Collection : Data is downloaded from various authentic sources on
the internet such as FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), OECD, IMF 2. Preprocessing : The operations involved in
this section are, ● Eliminating missing values, outliers, and noise.
● Scaling, reorganizing, modifying and deleting irrelevant columns. 3. Data Integration : Multiple clean datasets are
integrated into a single dataset. The obtained dataset should be suitable for training the ML model.
4. Splitting : The obtained dataset is then split into two datasets, one for training and the other for testing the model.Fig
3.1 Dataset Before Preprocessing 12 Fig 3.2 Dataset after preprocessing 13 3.2 Machine Learning Machine learning
algorithms are implemented to analyze economic data by training and testing them on the datasets obtained from
previous operations. Various standard ML algorithms are used for the purposes of prediction, classification, correlation,
etc. Some of them are Linear Regression and Neural Networks.

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3.2.1 Linear Regression Following is a brief description of the steps involved in the implementation of the ML models.1.
Implementation 1.1. Import necessary libraries : The required libraries are implemented in the program environment.
Some of them are ‘seaborn’, ‘scikit-learn’ and numpy.

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1.2. Train the Model: The Linear Regression is trained on our dataset with the use of the LinearRegression() function from
the ‘scikit-learn’ module. 1.3. Predict on Test Data: Once the model is trained it can be used to make predictions on the
test dataset.
2. Evaluation 2.1. Evaluate the Model: The performance of the model is evaluated using metrics like ‘Mean Absolute
Error’, ‘Mean Squared Error (MSE)’ or ‘R-squared’. 2.2. Use the Model for Predictions: Prediction is obtained from the
model by the inputting values of all other variables in the model.

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Fig 3.3 Metrics for evaluating the model 14 3.3 Results The model can be used to produce various types of outputs.This
model can be used to predict the dependent variable based on the values of the independent variables. We can also
obtain the coefficients of the independent variables in the model, which can help us understand the magnitude and
direction of their impact on the dependent variable.

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The results produced by the model fall into the following categories.1. Prediction : The model can be used to predict
values of selected variables from a set of variables based on time-series data containing historic values of these
variables.
Fig 3.4 Example of GDP value prediction obtained for sample input 15 2.Classification : It can be used to classify
important economic variables into multiple categories, based on their relevance, contribution and influence to the
economic system.
Fig 3.5 Coefficient Plot 16 3. Correlation : It can analyze data to show correlations between different economic variables
and illustrate the variables that have the highest and lowest impact on the target variable.
Fig 3.6 Heat Map of actual and predicted values 17 4.Visualization : It can produce informative visualizations of
variations and trends in the data that are immensely helpful in providing a clear and better understanding of the data, the
various patterns, and the complex interrelationships
among the variables in it. Fig 3.7 Scatter Plot of predicted values against actual values 18 CHAPTER 4
INTERPRETATIONS The final step in the development phase was to interpret the results of the machine
learning models to understand the impact of economic variables on financial development and economic crisis.The
interpretation process helps in drawing conclusions and making informed decisions about economic policies. Overall, the
development phase of the project was critical in implementing the research findings and applying machine learning
techniques to analyze the economic data. The output generated from this phase provides valuable insights into the
relationship between economic variables and financial development and economic crisis 19 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the development of a data analytics model on the economic crisis and
financial development of a state can provide valuable insights into the underlying economic conditions and trends in the
state's economy. By analyzing a range of economic variables and utilizing machine learning algorithms, policymakers and
stakeholders can gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the state's economy, and
develop targeted policy interventions to address these issues.
The data analysis phase of the project involves collecting and preprocessing data from various sources, including FRED
API, and integrating it into a unified dataset. Machine learning algorithms such as linear regression and neural networks
are then applied to this dataset to generate predictions and insights into the state's economic conditions.
The output generated by the model can be visualized and interpreted using various techniques, including statistical
analysis, data visualization, and trend analysis. This interpretation of results is crucial in identifying patterns and trends in
the data and developing effective policy interventions to address the underlying economic issues.
Overall, the development of a data analytics model on the economic crisis and financial development of a state can help
policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions, develop targeted policy interventions, and drive economic
growth and
development in the state. The model can be continually refined and updated as new data becomes available, providing
ongoing insights and support for economic planning and development in the state.
20 REFERENCES 1. H. A. Sanghvi, S. B. Pandya, P. Chattopadhyay, R. H. Patel and A. S. Pandya, "Data Science for E-
Healthcare, Entertainment and Finance," 2021 Third International Conference on Inventive Research in Computing
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(ICIRCA), 2021 2. Z. Chen, "Analysis on the Application of Data 3.Analysis in Economic Management," 2021
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