Module 3: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I

Syllabus:

Probability of an event, axiomatic definition, addition theorem, conditional probability, multiplication

theorem, Bayes’ theorem. Random variables, Probability distributions - Discrete and Continuous.
Binomial, Poisson, exponential and normal distribution

Class 1-2: Introduction to probability- Definition and examples of probability, events and their types,
sample space. (2 hours)

Q1. When 2 dice are thrown, what is the probability of getting

i. One each ii. Sum is more than 10

iii. Sum is equal to 4 or 5.

iv. Sum is less than or equal to 10.

v. Sum is less than or equal to 11.

vi. Sum is divisible by 3

Q2. Find the probability of getting (a) king (b) king or queen, when a card is drawn at random from a
pack of 52 cards.

Q3. A box contains 3 white, 2 green and 4 yellow balls. 1 ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that

i. Getting a white ball ii. Green or yellow ball iii) Non-Green.

Q4. A box contains 3 white, 2 green and 4 yellow balls. 2 balls are drawn at random. What is the
probability that Getting i. Both white ball

ii. One is white and one is green.

iii. Different colours.

iv. Both are green or Yellow.

v. Atleast one is white.

Class 3-4: Statements and examples of Addition theorem, conditional probability and Multiplication
theorem. (2 hours)

Q1 Given 𝑃(𝐴) = 1/4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 1/3 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1/2,

evaluate 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵), 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴), 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵′ )

Q2. In a school 25% of the students failed in the first language, 15% of the students failed in the
second language and 10% of the students failed in both. If a student is selected at random, then find
the probability that,

i) he failed in the first language if he had failed in the second language.

ii) he failed in the second language if he had failed in the first language.
iii) he failed in the either of the two languages.
Q3. A box contains 3 white, 5 black and 6 red balls. If a ball is drawn at random, then what is the
probability that it is either red or white?

Ans:9/14

Q4. A box contains 2 white and 2 black balls and a second box contains 2 white and 4 black balls. If
one ball is drawn at random from each box, then what is the probability that they are of the same
color?

Q5. An urn A contains 2 white and 4 black balls. A second urn contains 5 white and 7 black balls. A
ball is transferred from A to B and then a ball is drawn from B. Find the probability that it is white.

Q6.Three students A,B,C write an entrance examination. Their chances of passing are ½, 1/3, ¼
respectively. Find the probability that

a) at least one of them passes

b) all of them passes

c) at least two of them passes.

Q7. Two cards are drawn in succession from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that the first is
king and the second is queen if the first card is

i) Replaced ii)Not replaced Ans: 1/169=0.052=5.2%, 4/663=0.006=0.6%

Q8. From 6 positive and 8 negative integers, 4 numbers are chosen at random (without
replacement) and multiplied. What is the probability that the product is a positive number.

Ans: 505/1001 = 0.5045

Q9. The probability that a bomb dropped from Bomber A hits the target is 0.2. The probability that a
bomb dropped from Bomber B hits the target is 0.3. Both these bombers drop a bomb each on a
bridge. Find the probability that the bridge is hit.

Q10. Probability of solving problem by A and B is 1/5 and 3/5. Problem is solved independently.
What is the probability that

i. Problem is solved.

ii. Problem is not solved.

iii. Any one will solve the problem.

iv. Both of them are solved.

Q11. A card is drawn at random from a pack of cards.

i. What is the probability that it is a heart?

ii. If it is known that the card drawn is red, what is the probability that it is a heart?

Q12. Probability of solving the problem by A, B and C be 1/4 , 1/3 and 1/2. If the problem is solved
independently what is the probability that problem is solved or atleast one of them solve the
problem.
Q13. A box has 3 green balls and 2 black balls. Two balls are selected. What is the probability of
selecting 2 green balls that

i. Both are taken together.

ii. Taken one after the other with replacement.

iii. One after the other without replacement.

Class 5: Statement of Baye’s theorem on conditional probability (1 hour)

Q1. Three Machines A, B, C produces 50%, 30%, 20% of the total production of a factory. The
percentage of defective outputs are 3, 4, 5. If a product is selected at random, then what is the
probability that it is defective? What is the probability that it is from A?

Ans: P(D)=0.037, P(A/D)=0.4054

Q2. In a bolt factory there are four machines A, B, C, D manufacturing respectively 20%, 15%, 25%,
40% of the total production. Out of these 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% are defective. If a bolt is drawn at random
was found defective, then what is the probability that it was manufactured by A or D?

Ans: P(X)=0.0315, P(A/X)=0.3175, P(D/X)=0.254 P(AUD/X)=0.5715

Q3. Three major parties A, B, C are contending for power in the elections of a state and the chance
of their winning the election is in the ratio 1:3:5. The parties A, B, C respectively have probabilities of
banning the online lottery 2/3, 1/3, 3/5. What is the probability that there will be a ban on the online
lottery in the state? What is the probability that the ban is from the party C?

Q4. Ball pen refills are packed in pouches containing 25 refills in each pouch. In a shop it was found
that 5 refills failed to write in pouch 1, 10 each in pouches 2 and 3, 1 refill in pouch 4. Suppose a
refill is selected at random from one of the four pouches, what is the probability that it fails to write?
What is the probability that it was from pouch 4?

Ans: P(X)=0.26; P(D/X)=0.04

Q5. The chance of becoming chief minister by Mr. X, Y, Z are respectively 35%, 40%, 25%. If X
become chief minister chance of abolished corruption is 2% whereas Mr. Y and X is 10% and 12%. In
a particular survey it has been found that corruption is abolished. Find the probability that as per the
survey

i) Mr. X becomes the chief minister.

ii) Mr. Y becomes the chief minister.

iii) Mr. Z becomes the chief minister.

iv) Probability that corruption is abolished.

Class 6-7: Definition and examples of random variables and their types. Mean, variance and standard
deviation of discrete probability distribution. (2 hours)

Q1. Check whether the following distribution is a discrete probability distribution. Find mean and
variance
Q2. The probability density function of a variate X is

(i) Find k

(ii) Find 𝑃(𝑋 < 4), 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 5), 𝑃(3 < 𝑋 ≤ 6)

Q3. A random variable X has the following probability function

(i) Find the value of k

(ii) Evaluate P(𝑿<𝟔), 𝑷(𝑿≥𝟔), 𝑷(𝟎<𝑿≤𝟓)

(iii) Also find the probability distribution

Class 8: Binomial distribution: Statement, Mean, Variance and S.D. (No proof) [1 hour]

Q1. In a sampling a large number of parts manufactured by a company, the mean number of
defectives in a sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such samples, how many would be expected to contain
at least 3 defective parts? Ans: P(x>=3)=323

Q2. The probability that a person aged 60 years will live up to 70 is 0.65. What is the probability that
out of 10 persons aged 60 at least 7 of them will live up to 70. Ans: P(x>=7)=0.5138

Q3. The number of telephone lines busy at an instant of time is a binomial variate with probability
0.1 that a line is busy. If 10 lines are chosen at random, then what is the probability that

(i) No line is busy ii) All lines are busy iii) At least one line is busy iv) At most two lines are busy

Ans: i) P(0)=0.3487 ii) P(10)=(0.1)^10 iii) P(x>=1)=0.6513 iv)P(2)=0.9298

Q4. In 800 families with 5 children each how many families would be expected to have

(i) 3 boys ii) 5 girls iii) Either 2 or 3 boys

iv) At most 2 girls by assuming probabilities for boys and girls to be equal.
Ans: i) f(3)=250 ii) f(0)=25 iii) f(2)+f(3)=500 iv) f(5)+f(4)+f(3)=400

Class 9: Poisson distribution: Statement, Mean, Variance and S.D. (No proof) [1 hour]

Q1. If the probability of a bad reaction from a certain injection is 0.001, determine the chance that
out of 2000 individuals, more than two will get a bad reaction. Ans: 0.3222

Q2. 2% of the fuses manufactured by a firm is found to be defective. Find the probability that a box
containing 200 fuses contains i)No defective fuses ii) 3 or more defective fuses

Ans: i) 0.0183 ii) 0.7621

Q3. The probability that a pen manufactured by a company will be defective is 1/500. The pens are
supplied in packets of 10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number of packets
containing i)No defective ii) One defective iii) Two defective pens,

in a consignment of 10,000 packets. Ans: i) 9802 ii)196 iii) 2

Q4. The number of accidents in a year to taxi drivers in a city follows a poisson distribution with
mean 3. Out of 1000 taxi drivers, find approximately the number of drivers with

i) No accident in a year ii) More than 3 accidents in a year

Ans: i) 50 ii) 350

Class 10: Exponential distribution: Statement, Mean, Variance and S.D. (No proof) [1 hour]

Q1. If x is an exponential variate with mean 3, then find i) 𝒑(𝒙>𝟏) ii) 𝒑(𝒙<𝟑)

Ans: i) e^(-1/3)=0.7165 ii) 1-1/e=0.6321

Q2. The length of telephone conversation in a telephone booth has been an exponential distribution
and found an average to be 5 minutes. Find the probability that a random call made from this booth

i) Ends less than 5 minutes ii) Between 5 and 10 minutes

Ans: i) 1-1/e=0.6321 ii)1/e-1/e^2= 0.2325

Q3. In a certain town the duration of a shower is exponentially distributed with mean 5 minutes.
What is the probability that a shower will last for

i) 10 minutes or more ii) less than 10 minutes iii) Between 10 and 12 minutes

Ans: i) 0.1353 ii) 0.8647 iii)0.0446

Q4. The life of compressor manufactured by a company is known to be 200 months on an average
following an exponential distribution. Find the probability that the life of a compressor of that
company is i)Less than 200 months ii) Between 100 months and 25 years

Ans: i) 0.6321 ii) 0.3834

Class 11-12: Normal distribution: Statement, Mean, Variance and S.D. (No proof) [2 hours]

Q1. Evaluate the following probabilities with the help of normal probability tables.

i) 𝒑(𝒛≥𝟎.𝟖𝟓) ii) 𝒑(−𝟏.𝟔𝟒≤𝒛≤−𝟎.𝟖𝟖) iii) 𝒑(𝒛≤−𝟐.𝟒𝟑) iv) 𝒑(|𝒛|≤𝟏.𝟗𝟒)

Ans: i) 0.1977 ii) 0.1389 iii) 0.0075 iv) 0.9476

Q2. If x is a normal variate, with mean 30 and standard deviation 5, then find the probabilities of the
following i) 𝟐𝟔≤𝒙≤𝟒𝟎 ii)𝒙≥𝟒𝟓 iii) |𝒙−𝟑𝟎|>𝟓 Ans: i) 0.7653 ii) 0.0013

Q3. The marks of 1000 students in an examination follows a normal distribution with mean 70 and
standard deviation 5. Find the number of students whose marks will be

i) Less than 65 ii) More than 75 iii) Between 65 and 75.

Ans: i) 159 ii) 159 iii) 683

Q4. In a normal distribution 31% of the items are under 45 and 8% of the items are over 64. Find the
mean and standard deviation. Ans: Mean=50 and S.D.=10