1 NEWS Verian Poll

(Note, the new poll name reflects Kantar Public’s new brand name)

8 - 12 July 2023
Attention: Television New Zealand

Release date: 17 July 2023

Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 10

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 10

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Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Monday 17 July 2023

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 8 to Wednesday 12 July 2023.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,000 eligible voters, including n=500 polled via mobile phone and n=500 polled
online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Verian Poll”.

1 News Verian Poll - 2

Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National Party 35% Down, 2% -points from 20 to 24 May 2023
Labour Party 33% Down, 2% -points
ACT Party 12% Up 1% -point
Green Party 10% Up 3% -points
New Zealand First 3% Steady
Te Pāti Māori / Māori Party 3% Up 1% -point
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 2% Up 1% -point
DemocracyNZ 1% Steady
Freedoms New Zealand 1% Up 1% -point
ONE Party 1% Up 1% -point

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 12% Steady from 20 to 24 May 2023

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Chris Hipkins 24% Down 1% -point from 20 to 24 May 2023

Christopher Luxon 20% Up 2% -points

David Seymour 7% Steady

Winston Peters 2% Steady

Chlöe Swarbrick 2% Steady

Nicola Willis 1% Steady

Jacinda Ardern 1% Steady

Marama Davidson 1% Up 1% -point

Raf Manji 1% Up 1% -point

James Shaw 1% Up 1% -point

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.

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Key political events
19th May 2023 – 7th July 2023

• On May 28, National party withdrew from the previously bi-partisan Medium Density Residential
Standards to improve housing supply and proposed their own urban development plan.

• On May 31, Secondary teachers’ union rejected pay offer from the Ministry of Education.

• On June 18, National proposed making gang membership an aggravating factor when it comes to
sentencing. Labour argued this factor is already used in sentencing.

• On 20 June, finance minister Grant Robertson announces market study on banking competition after
windfall profits were made in the sector during a cost-of-living crisis.

• On June 21, Michael Woods resigned as transport minister after it had been discovered he did not
declare his shares in Auckland Airport which caused a conflict of interest in his position as transport
minister.

• On June 29, Kiri Allan rejected claims made by the head of DOC that she treated staff badly.

• On June 29 the Privileges committee found Jan Tinetti misled parliament after she failed to correct
herself on a statement about the release of school attendance data.

• On July 3, Nurses were offered pay equity.

• On June 28, PM Chris Hipkins met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

• On July 7, Mid-wives receive 15% pay increase after strike action for pay equity.

• On July 7, PM Chris Hipkins travels to Europe to sign free trade deal with the EU.

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Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

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Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

30 Jul-3 17-21 Sep 26-30 Nov 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May 8-12 July
Aug 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023
Don’t know 8% 10% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8%
Refused 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3%
TOTAL 11% 13% 11% 11% 13% 12% 12%
Base (n=) 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000

30 Jul-3
17-21 Sep 26-30 25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 May 8-12 July
Aug
2022 Nov 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023
2022
National Party 37% 37% 38% 37% 34% 37% 35%
Labour Party 33% 34% 33% 38% 36% 35% 33%
ACT Party 11% 9% 11% 10% 11% 11% 12%
Green Party 9% 9% 9% 7% 11% 7% 10%
New Zealand First 2.6% 3.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1%
Te Pāti Māori / Māori 2.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.8%
Party
The Opportunities 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Party (TOP)
Freedoms New 0.8% 0.6% - 0.3% - 0.5% 0.8%
Zealand (nett)
- Freedoms
- - - - - - 0.7%
New Zealand
- New Nation
- - - - - 0.3% 0.1%
Party
- Vision New
0.8% 0.6% - 0.3% - 0.2% -
Zealand
DemocracyNZ - - 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
ONE Party - - - 0.1% 0.1% - 0.5%
New Conservative 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Party
Aotearoa Legalise 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Cannabis Party
NZ Outdoors & - 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% -
Freedom Party

Other 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%

TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 837 798 812 822 787 805 803

Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Verian Poll
Party Vote
60%

50%

40%
National
Labour
30%

20%

ACT
10%
Green

Māori
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

National Labour ACT Green Māori

2
Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

30 Jul-3 17-21 26-30 20-24

25-29 4-8 Mar 8-12 July
Aug Sep Nov May
Jan 2023 2023 2023
2022 2022 2022 2023
Chris Hipkins 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 23% 27% 25% 24%
Christopher Luxon 22% 21% 23% 22% 17% 18% 20%
David Seymour 6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Winston Peters 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2%
Chlöe Swarbrick 1% 1% 2% 1% 0.9% 2% 2%
Nicola Willis 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1% 1%
Jacinda Ardern 30% 30% 29% 5% 2% 1% 1%
Marama Davidson 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6%
Raf Manji - - 0.5% 0.3% - 0.1% 0.6%
James Shaw 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Grant Robertson 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
Rawiri Waititi 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Carmel Sepuloni - - - - - 0.3% 0.3%
Helen Clark 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% - - 0.1% 0.2%
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer - 0.1% - 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Chris Bishop 0.2% 0.3% - - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Leighton Baker - - - - - - 0.1%
Stuart Nash - - - 0.1% 0.1% - 0.1%
Andrew Little - - 0.1% 0.1% - - 0.1%
Shane Reti - - 0.1% - - 0.1% 0.1%
Simon Bridges - 0.1% - 0.3% - - 0.1%
Kiritapu Allan - - - 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
John Key 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Other 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Don't know 31% 33% 28% 31% 33% 32% 32%
None 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%
Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,023 1,001 1,011 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

1 News Verian Poll - 8

70 1 NEWS Verian Poll
Preferred Prime Minister
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
John Key David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little
Jacinda Ardern Bill English Simon Bridges Judith Collins
David Seymour Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins
Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll. The
calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

National Party 46

Labour Party 43

ACT Party 15

Green Party 12

Te Pāti Māori 4

TOTAL 120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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