Lesson 1.1 What is Probability?
Introduction to Probability
Probability is a numerical value between 0 and 1, inclusive (includes both 0 and 1), that
describes the likelihood of an event happening. We have a 0% to 100% chance of something
occurring.
The closer the number is to 0 the less likely it is to occur. The closer to 1, the more likely.
A probability can never be greater than 1 or less than 0.
To find the probability of an event occurring you need to find the total number of items in the
event and the total number of items of interest.
Example 1
A bag with 5 red balls.
What is the probability of choosing a red ball?
The total number of items is 5 balls
The total number of red balls is 5
So we see that the probability is 5/5= 1. There is a 100% chance of choosing a red ball.
What is the probability of choosing a white ball?
The total number of items is 5 balls
The total number of white balls is 0
So we see that the probability of is 0/5=0. There is a 0% chance of choosing a white ball.
Example 2
A bag with 1 blue, 2 yellow, and 3 red balls.
What is the probability of choosing a red ball?
The total number of items is 6 balls
The total number of red balls is 3
So we see that the probability is 3/6=1/2. (Always reduce).
What is the probability of choosing a yellow ball?
The total number of items is 6 balls
The total number of yellow balls is 2
So we see that the probability is 2/6=1/3. (Always reduce).
We use shorthand in math a lot. To write what is the probability of a red ball you could see
P(red) or P(R). The P stands for probability and then what is in ( ) is the item you need to find.
Probabilities can be written as fractions, decimals, or percentages. The closer the number to 0
the less likely it is to occur.
Types of Probability
Subjective probability is probability that uses past experiences, judgement, or opinion to
estimate the likelihood that an event will occur. This probability is based on intuition, not a
mathematical model. It is more of an educated guess. We often use this "informal"
probability in our daily lives.
Example: Looking outside and it is cloudy, you determine there is a 50% chance of rain. This is
based on past experience.
Experimental probability is probability that is based on the results of an experiment. It is the
ratio of the number of times an event occurs and the total number of trials.
Formula: Experimental probability= # favorable outcomes/ number of trials
Example: Rolling dice and getting a 2. You actually perform the act, do the experiment.
Experiment: The action you are performing (Rolling a six-sided die)
Event: The result you are trying to achieve (Rolling a 2)
Sample Space: All of the possible outcomes (S={1,2,3,4,5,6})
Outcomes: A result of the experiment (Trial 1: 2, Trial 2: 3, Trial 3: 6)
Experimental Probability: The likelihood of an event occuring, based on the experiment. (In 3
trials, the 2 occurred 1 time. P(2)=1/3)
Theoretical probability is probability that is found using the ratio of the number of favorable
outcomes and the number of outcomes in the sample space. An experiment is not
necessary for this type of probability. It is based solely on the sample space. (In theory what
should happen)
Formula: Theoretical probability= # favorable outcomes/total outcomes in sample space
Example: Rolling dice and getting a 2. This is based on theory, what SHOULD happen.
Event: The result you are trying to achieve (Rolling a 2)
Sample Space: All of the possible outcomes (S={1,2,3,4,5,6})
Favorable Outcomes: The number of times the result is in the sample space. (There is one 2 in
the sample space, so 1 favorable outcome)
Theoretical Probability: The number of favorable outcomes to the number in the sample
space. (There is one 2 in six outcomes in the sample space. P(2)=1/6)
Theoretical and Experimental Probability Lab
Gizmo opens in another tab. It might be easier to see if you do a split screen and have Gizmo
and Moodle open at the same time.
USERNAME: VirtualSCPS
PASSWORD: VirtualSCPS
Using this will eliminate the 5 minute timeout.
Follow the instructions closely when completing the lab. If you do not, you will get answers
marked wrong.
Law of large numbers states that the more you repeat an experiment the closer the
experimental probability will be to the theoretical probability.
Coin Toss Lab
What is the theoretical probability of tossing a coin and getting heads?
Event: Getting heads
Sample Space: H,T
Favorable Outcome: There is 1 H in the sample space, so favorable outcome is 1
Theoretical Probability: There is 1 H in 2 outcomes, so 1/2
What is the theoretical probability of tossing a coin and getting tails?
Event: Getting tails
Sample Space: H,T
Favorable Outcome: There is 1 T in the sample space, so favorable outcome is 1
Theoretical Probability: There is 1 T in 2 outcomes, so 1/2
Remember P(H) and P(T) should be written as fractions. In this activity do not reduce the
fraction.
