Invesco India Rise Portfolio
Invesco India Rise Portfolio
Invesco India Rise Portfolio
E Portfolio
R.I.S.E : R - Recovery in Demand, I - Idle Capacity-potential
for operating leverage, S - Superior Business Model,
E - Earnings Recovery
December 2017
This document is prepared by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Ltd (‘IAM’). for informational purposes only and is not an offering.
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Circulation, disclosure, or dissemination of all or any part of this material to any unauthorized persons is prohibited.
Turning Adversity Into Opportunity
Global Slowdown
Why Mixed trends at a nascent stage in recovery
Weak commodity prices
2 R I S E
Earnings – Levers for Recovery
Capacity Utilisation vs. EBITDA Margin trends & Gross Financial Leverage
Profit Margin 28.0% 16.0%
50 48 80
46
43 26.0%
43 24.1% 15.0%
39 42
39 40
40 78 77 24.0% 24.7%
78
77 14.0%
22.0%
74 19.7% 22.1%
30 75 74 20.0% 21.3% 13.0%
72 72 72
%
%
18.0% 17.2%
11.5% 11.4% 12.0%
20 16.10 16.09 71
14.11 16.0% 11.0%
13.21 14.28 13.68 14.84
11.0%
15.28 14.0% 12.6% 10.9% 11.0%
10 68 10.6%
12.3%
10.0%
12.0%
10.0%
9.6%
0 65 10.0% 9.0%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY 16 FY 17 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBITDA Margins (LHS) Gross Profit Margin (LHS) CU (RHS) Interest Exp/EBIT (LHS) Cost of Borrowing (ex CWIP) (RHS)
While current earnings cycle is weak, there are levers to earnings recovery
India’s incorporation’s capacity utilization is at a 6-year low
Interest expense in FY17 constitutes 22% of EBIT as compared to 12% in 2010 highlighting significant financial
leverage
Any cyclical recovery in demand should result in more than proportionate uptick in earnings due to higher
degree of operating and financial leverage
Source: RBI, IIFL, Capitaline, Invesco Asset Management (India) Research. EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. EBIT: Earnings before interest and tax.
CU: Capacity utilization. CWIP: Capital Work in Progress. Above graphs include company data, which are constituents of S&P BSE 200 Index (excluding financials).
3 R I S E
Has it Happened Before?
200
Period: March 1998 – March 2003 Period: March 2003 – March 2007
180 Capacity expanded from 2.8 mn tonnes to 6 mn tonne Capacity utilization levels improved from
58% in 2003 to 94% in 2007
160
140
Stock price (Rs.)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07
Source: Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Ltd. / Bloomberg. Adjusted Share Price. CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above simulation is for illustration purpose only and should not be construed as a promise on minimum
returns and safeguard of capital. IAM is not guaranteeing or forecasting any returns. The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset
Management (India) Private Ltd. (“the Portfolio Manager”). The Portfolio Manager may or may not hold position in this stock in future. This should not be seen as an investment advice.
4 R I S E
Why Does it Happen?
10.0 150
8.0 100
6.0 50
4.0 0
2.0 -50
0.0 -100
Apr/91 Nov/92 Jun/94 Jan/96 Aug/97 Mar/99 Oct/00 May/02 Dec/03 Jul/05 Feb/07
Capacity (LHS) Sales (LHS) Share Price (RHS)
5 R I S E
Presenting Invesco India R.I.S.E Portfolio
R.I.S.E : R - Recovery in Demand, I - Idle Capacity-potential for
operating leverage, S - Superior Business Model,
E - Earnings Recovery
Recovery in Demand
R.I.S.E in Discretionary Spending
6 R I S E
Portfolio Update
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Model Portfolio Performance
As on December 31, 2017
46.89%
36.61% 35.94%
22.67% 24.09%
13.84%
9.17% 10.23%
3.51%
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute Returns and returns over 1 year are Compounded Annualized Returns. The returns are
calculated on the basis of daily market value of the Portfolio.
Disclaimer: The returns of model portfolio given above are for illustration purpose only. Model portfolio returns does not take into account expenses/charges and Profit/Loss on account of
derivative transactions. Returns under client wise portfolio may vary vis-à-vis returns of model portfolio due to various factors viz. timing of investment/additional investment in client’s
portfolio, timing of withdrawals in client’s portfolio, mandates given by respective client, profit/loss on account of derivative transactions, expenses charged to respective portfolio, dividend
income in the respective portfolio etc. The Portfolio manager does not offer guaranteed or assured returns. Securities investments are subject to market risks, please read the Disclosure
Document carefully before investing.
8 R I S E
Model Portfolio Characteristics
December 31, 2017
9 R I S E
Model Portfolio Holdings
December 31, 2017
The stock & sectors referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Ltd. (“the Portfolio Manager”). The Portfolio Manager may
or may not hold position in this stock in future. This should not be seen as an investment advice. Operating Leverage: Companies currently operating at low capacity utilization and have
large portion of costs fixed in nature. These companies can make more money from each additional sale as demand recovers. Financial Leverage: Companies which can generate returns
greater than the interest expense associated with the debt they use to fund growth. Further, could increase their profit margin from decline in interest rates and reduction in debt due to
profit growth. Deep Value: Deep value investing seeks to purchase stocks at an even greater discount to their intrinsic value. Securities investments are subject to market risks,
please read the Disclosure Document carefully before investing.
10 R I S E
Stock Selection Process
Stock Portfolio
Categorization Investment Strategy Construction
Framework# Levers
5 Benchmark
Indices*
+ Categorized Portfolio Portfolio
Select Stocks Universe
Bottom-up
ideas
Recovery Attractive
Portfolio
Potential Valuations
11 R I S E
Stock Categorization Framework
Integration, cost
Call on the cycle
Commodities Positive efficiency, globally Profit leverage
is paramount
competitive
12 R I S E
Performance Contributors
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KEC International Ltd.
Improvement in EBITDA. Reduction in debt on account of improved cash flow
from operations
24.69%
18.13%
0.50%
Revenue EBITDA Profit after tax KEC International Ltd. S&P BSE 500
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. Note: Performance has been shown from
the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
14 R I S E
Balkrishna Industries Ltd.
Higher capacity utilization lead to Margin expansion & reduction in Net Debt to
Equity
40% 0.00
FY16 FY17
Capacity Utilization (LHS) Net Debt / Equity (RHS)
10.20% 23.48%
Revenue EBITDA Profit after tax Balkrishna Industries Ltd. S&P BSE 500
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
15 R I S E
Coromandel International Ltd.
Higher capacity utilization lead to margin expansion & reduction in Debt to
Equity ratio
63% 0.00
FY16 FY17
Capacity Utilization (LHS) Net Debt / Equity (RHS)
EBITDA Profit after tax Coromandel International Ltd. S&P BSE 500
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
16 R I S E
VIP Industries Ltd.
Operating leverage leading to EBITDA growth significantly higher than topline
growth
26.81%
23.29%
23.38%
4.29%
Revenue EBITDA Profit After Tax VIP Industries Ltd. S&P BSE 500
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
17 R I S E
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd.
Higher capacity utilization leading to operating and financial leverage
70%
58.58%
66% Purchase Date Apr 29, 2016
Holding Date Dec 31, 2017
Holding Period 611 days
Return Method CAGR
55%
58% 69%
Revenue EBITDA Profit After Tax Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd. S&P BSE 500
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization. PAT: Profit after Tax.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
18 R I S E
TVS Motor Company Ltd.
Operating leverage led to improvement in margins
FY16 FY17
12.85%
9.28%
Revenue EBITDA Profit after tax TVS Motor Company Ltd. S&P BSE 500 Index
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
19 R I S E
National Aluminum Co. Ltd.
Proxy to Aluminum price
175
148 24.43%
150
125
100
75
Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
20 R I S E
Portfolio Laggards
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Power Mech Projects Ltd.
Deterioration in working capital
-8.75%
-13.91%
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
22 R I S E
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.
Falling market share
5.4%
4.9%
-17.17%
FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd S&P BSE 500
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are Compounded Annualized. CAGR: Compounded annualize growth
rate. Note: Performance has been shown from the period when stock was included in the portfolio. Source: Company reports, Capitaline & Internal. EBITDA: Earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The stock referred above should not be construed as recommendations from Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future
positions in this stock or in any other portfolios offered by Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited. The performance of above stock should not be construed as performance of
the portfolio as the portfolio would be constituted of number of stocks having different weights and the individual stock held by the portfolio may or may not give positive returns. Invesco
Asset Management (India) Private Limited is not guaranteeing or promising or forecasting any returns.
23 R I S E
Invesco India R.I.S.E Portfolio
Portfolio To generate capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related securities.
Objective
Portfolio The portfolio will comprise of companies which will benefit from revival in economic growth and R.I.S.E in consumer
Description discretionary spending. The portfolio will favour companies that will benefit from operating and financial leverage. The
portfolio will also include companies where dividend yield is attractive.
Indicative Under normal circumstances, the asset allocation of the portfolio shall be as follows:
Asset
Allocation Instrument Indicative Allocations (% of portfolio value)
Pattern
Equity & Equity Related Instruments
(Including Equity Derivatives)# 60% to 100%
# The portfolio may have exposure to derivatives up to 30% of the portfolio value in accordance with guidelines issued by SEBI.
24 R I S E
Risk Factors & Mitigates
25 R I S E
Portfolio Manager
Chetan has experience of 23 years in Indian equity markets; of which 11 years were spent in portfolio
management and previous 11 years were in equity research. He has been with PMS division since
inception. Prior to this he worked with Quantum Securities as Head of Research and at DBS Securities
India as a Senior Analyst. Chetan holds an Electronics Engineering degree, a PGDM from Jamnalal Bajaj
Institute of Management Studies and a CFA charter from CFA Institute, USA. He is on the Board of Indian
Association of Investment Professionals (IAIP), a not-for-profit organization and member society of CFA
Institute, promoting ethics and professional excellence in the industry.
26 R I S E
Invesco
Data of Invesco Limited: Invesco Ltd. Client-related data, investment professional, employee data and AUM are as of September 30, 2017, and include all assets under advisement,
distributed and overseen by Invesco. Data of Invesco Asset Management (India): AUM represents Average AUM for the quarter ending December 2017. Decimals have been rounded
off.
27 R I S E
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Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This presentation does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Ltd. (“the Portfolio
MKTG/PMSOP/0118/C00141
Manager / the Company”) will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this presentation. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take
into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation / circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this
presentation. The Co's/sectors referred in this presentation are only for the purpose of explaining the concept of Portfolio and should not be construed as
recommendations from Portfolio Manager. The Portfolio may or may not have any present or future positions in these stock. The Portfolio(s) discussed in the
presentation may not be suitable for all the investors. The recipient of this material alone shall be fully responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of
this material. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. The distribution of
this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibited to registration requirements and accordingly, persons who come into possession of
this presentation are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions and/ or legal compliance requirements. Persons who may receive
this presentation should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his / her / their particular circumstances and are requested to seek
professional / financial advice. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. The
Company and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any kind of loss arising out of the use of this presentation. With respect to all information found in this
presentation the Company has obtained data from sources it considers reliable however, the Company and its directors, officers, agents, or employees and its
affiliates make no warranty, express or implied, including the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, or assume any legal liability or
responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information contained therein and the Company shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental or
consequential damages sustained or incurred in connection with the use, operation, or inability to use this presentation and information contained therein. Under
no circumstances will the Portfolio Manager be liable for any loss or damage caused by anyone’s reliance on information contained in this presentation.
Risk Factors: All securities investments are subject to market risks and there can be no assurance that the objectives of the portfolio(s) will be achieved. Each
portfolio will be exposed to various risks depending on the investment objective, investment strategy and the asset allocation. The performance of the portfolio
may be affected by changes in factors affecting the securities markets such as volume and volatility in the capital markets, interest rates, currency exchange rates,
changes in law/policies of the Government, taxation laws, political, economic or other developments, general decline in the Indian markets, which may have an
adverse impact on individual securities, a specific sector or all sectors. Further, the investments by the portfolio shall involve investment risks such as trading
volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including the possible loss of capital. The portfolio with investment objective to invest in a specific sector /
industry would be exposed to risk associated with such sector / industry and its performance will be dependent on performance of such sector / industry. The
Portfolio Manager in accordance with the features of respective Portfolio may use derivatives which require an understanding not only of the underlying instrument
but of the derivative itself. Derivative products are leveraged instruments and can provide disproportionate gains as well as disproportionate losses to the investor.
Execution of such strategies depends upon the ability of the Portfolio Manager to identify such opportunities. The decisions of Portfolio Manager may not always be
profitable. The portfolio, returns and expenses charged including Portfolio Management fees for each Client may differ from that of the other Client. Investors of
the Portfolio Management Services are not being offered any guaranteed / assured returns. The Portfolio Manager may invest in shares, debt, units of mutual
funds, deposits or other financial instruments of associate/ group Co's. The name of the portfolio(s) does not in any manner indicate either the quality of the
product or their future prospects and returns. Investors are advised to read the risk factors given in the Portfolio Management Services Agreement and Disclosure
Document before making investments.
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Get in Touch
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T: +91-22-6731000 F: +91-22-23019422
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