PREDICTORS OF STUDENT’S

PERFORMANCE IN TIMSS MATHEMATICS

RELEASED ITEMS

PSYCHOLOGY AND EDUCATION: A MULTIDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL

2023
Volume: 6
Pages: 1037-1043
Document ID: 2022PEMJ507
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7575160
Manuscript Accepted: 2023-23-1
Psych Educ,2023, 6: 1037-1043, Document ID: PEMJ507, doi:10.5281/zenodo.7575160, ISSN 2822-4353
Research Article

Predictors of Student’s Performance in TIMSS Mathematics Released Items

Janwin C. Magas*
For affiliations and correspondence, see the last page.
Abstract
The Philippines scored 297 in Mathematics and 249 in Science in the 2019 Trends in International Mathematics
and Science Study (TIMSS), the lowest among 58 participating countries. The study's findings open the door to
determining various factors that can help alleviate the students' alarming performance. As a result, this study is a
quantitative study that aimed to determine student performance in TIMSS Mathematics released items and
predictors using the selected profile variables. The study included 49 high school students in total. Regression
analysis was used to determine whether there are any significant variables that influence the assessment's
outcome. The study's main tool was the 2011 TIMSS Mathematics released items. The findings revealed that
significant predictors include grade 7 math average, home computer availability, and gender. The study can be
used as a guide to determine students' strengths and weaknesses in TIMSS released items.

Keywords: mathematics, performance, predictors, and TIMSS released items.

Introduction biology). Countries also receive item-by-item results

for approximately 200 items per subject per grade for
diagnostic purposes (e.g., fourth-grade mathematics,
Science and mathematics education has long been eighth-grade science). One of the primary goals of
recognized as an important factor in development, TIMSS is to provide important background
prompting nations to prioritize it on their national information that can be used to improve mathematics
agendas. How students learn and how to assess student
and science teaching and learning. TIMSS, for
performance in these areas is thus a top priority for
example, collects extensive data on curriculum and
policymakers and educators around the world. The
curriculum implementation, instructional practices,
Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS),
and school resources (TIMSS, 2015).
which has been conducted since 1995 and every four
years since then by the International Association for
The TIMSS Mathematics assessment is divided into
the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA), is
two parts: (1) a content dimension that specifies the
one study that measures student performance in
Science and Mathematics and is gaining increasing
subject matter to be assessed and (2) a cognitive
attention (Ogena, Laña, & Sasota, 2010). dimension that specifies the cognitive or thinking
processes to be assessed. TIMSS assesses student
Since 1995, TIMSS has reported on international knowledge in three content domains in fourth grade:
trends in fourth and eighth grade mathematics and number, geometric shapes and measures, and data
science achievement. The sixth assessment, TIMSS display. TIMSS assesses student knowledge in four
2015, resulted in a 20-year trend line. Because TIMSS content domains in grade 8: numbers, algebra,
tracks changes in achievement at regular intervals, it is geometry, and data and chance. TIMSS assesses
an excellent tool for investigating how new or revised students' mathematical thinking in three cognitive
educational policies affect achievement. TIMSS 2011 domains at both grades (and across all content
was attended by 63 countries. domains): knowing, applying, and reasoning. (Martin,
Mullis, & Hooper, 2016).
The TIMSS Mathematics and Science assessments are
based on comprehensive assessment frameworks The TIMSS 2019 Mathematics Assessment Devoted to
created in collaboration with participating countries. Content and Cognitive Domains at Eighth Grade is
The frameworks specify the knowledge, skills, and presented in the table below. This is, in essence, the
understandings to be assessed in some detail. intended curriculum. It also describes the TIMSS-
Mathematics standards.
TIMSS measures overall Math and Science
achievement. Furthermore, results are presented in
accordance with four International Benchmarks
(advanced, high, medium, and low) as well as major
content domains (for example, algebra, geometry, and

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Psych Educ,2023, 6: 1037-1043, Document ID: PEMJ507, doi:10.5281/zenodo.7575160, ISSN 2822-4353
Research Article

Table 1. Target Percentages of the TIMSS 2019 In the 1999 TIMSS, which included second-year high
Mathematics Assessment Devoted to Content and school students, the Philippines finished 36th in both
Math and Science out of the 38 countries that took part
Cognitive Domains at Eighth Grade
in the assessment test. In the 2003 TIMSS, the
Philippines ranked 41st out of 45 countries in both
Math and Science (43rd of 46 countries). We took part
in the TIMSS in 2008 and finished last out of ten
countries in both Advanced Math and Science. We are
not unfamiliar with finishing last or near the bottom of
international large-scale assessments. These results
must have been the reason for the country's decision to
withdraw from TIMSS. It took a bit of time to rejoin
TIMSS and other international assessments with a
clear policy directive issued early on by the current
Department of Education (DepEd). That was a bold
Figure 1 above relates to the DO 29 s .2017- Policy
move that deserves to be recognized for stating that
Guidelines on System Assessment in the K to 12 Basic
education quality is the most serious problem that has
Education Program and DO 55 S.2016-Policy
plagued the system for decades (Raya, 2021).
Guidelines on the National Assessment of Student
Learning for the K to 12 Basic Education Program. We feasted on the results, which came one after the
This implies that, despite performing poorly in TIMSS other, beginning with PISA. While some looked
and PISA, the Department of Education has taken beneath the surface to understand the results, others
steps to develop students' assessment skills. mocked the system for producing the "mythical 80%
poor learners." Despite all of the criticism for our
Research Questions
students' poor performance, the DepEd has remained
unfazed. Participating in international large-scale
The study aimed to determine the predictors of
assessments can supplement our own national
students’ performance in TIMSS Mathematics released
assessments and help us place our students against
items. Specifically, it sought to answer the following
established global benchmarks. The anticipated (poor)
questions:
results guide and compel us to implement the reforms.
1. What is the performance of grade 8 and 9 students Looking at TIMSS 1999 and PISA 2018, two decades
in TIMSS Mathematics released items according to the apart, we see that the problem of achieving quality
following: education is chronic and will not be solved overnight
1.1 content domains (Number, Algebra, Geometry, (Raya, 2021).
and Data and Chance),
Despite the good intentions and efforts of successive
1.2 cognitive domains (Knowing, Applying, and
DepEd secretaries since 1999, education quality must
Reasoning), and
have remained stagnant over time. Pointing fingers at
1.3 proficiency level (Advanced, High,
anyone is counterproductive. The DepEd would prefer
Intermediate, and Low)?
to have all hands on deck to work out solutions
2. Is there a linear combination that can predict
collectively. It has, in fact, invited a wide range of
students’ performance in TIMSS Mathematics
Released Items? stakeholders to examine its reform agenda aimed at
improving teacher quality, improving the learning
environment, reviewing the K-12 curriculum, and
Literature Review encouraging stakeholder collaboration. These are good
points to expand on or even hammer home (Raya,
2021).
Performance of students in TIMSS in the
Philippines Asian countries dominate the top half of the 76
countries ranked. European countries occupy the
The following literature was cited to describe the majority of the positions fifth through 30th in the
performance of Filipino students, particularly in ranking, with the United States near the bottom of the
TIMSS, which served as the gaps that required the third, tied for 28th with Italy. The bottom half of the
current study to be conducted in the hopes of opening rankings is dominated by African and Latin American
the door to improving student performance in national nations. Singapore is the world's smartest country,
and international assessments.

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Psych Educ,2023, 6: 1037-1043, Document ID: PEMJ507, doi:10.5281/zenodo.7575160, ISSN 2822-4353
Research Article

with Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Filipinos fared worst among 58 countries in an
assessment for mathematics and science for Grade 4
Finland, Estonia, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and
students, according to a study by a Netherlands-Based
Canada rounding out the top ten. (Speiser, 2015 cited Research Institution as cited by Bernardo (2020).
by Magas, 2020).
The Philippines scored 297 in Mathematics and 249 in
Over the years, ASEAN countries have dominated Science, according to the trends in International
other countries in the field of mathematics. The Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 by the
Philippines, on the other hand, is an exception. International Association for the Evaluation of
Filipino grade-8 students only participated in the Educational Achievement (IEA). Both scores are
TIMSS in 1995, 1999, 2003, and 2007, according to lower than how the country fared in 2003, which are
the IEA-TIMSS website. When the TIMSS was first 358 in math and 332 in science, based on the study.
administered in 1995 to 42 countries, the Philippines Meanwhile, neighbouring country Singapore topped
finished 30th in Mathematics. (Ramos et al, 2015 cited both assessments, getting a score of 625 in
by Gammad, Madrid, & Magas, 2017). Mathematics and 595 in Science. The TIMSS makes
use of a 4-level scale to interpret students’ scores:
In 1999, the Philippines finished 36th out of 38
Advanced International Benchmark (625), High
participating countries, with 345 points for
International Benchmark (550), Intermediate
Mathematics and Singapore with 604 points. Morocco
International Benchmark (475), and Low International
(337 points) and South Africa (337 points) were the
Benchmark (400).
two lowest-scoring countries (with 275). The
Philippines ranked 41st out of 45 countries in 2003, Only 1% of Filipino students met the high standard in
with 378 points, 33 points higher than the result in math. In other words, students use conceptual
1999. (Gabriel, 2012, cited by Magas, 2020). understanding to solve problems. They can solve two-
step word problems using their conceptual
Table 2. Top 10 Countries in International Association
understanding of whole numbers. They demonstrate an
for the Evaluation Achievement (IEA), Trends in understanding of the number line, multiples, factors,
International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) rounding numbers, and fraction and decimal
operations. Students can solve simple measurement
problems. They demonstrate an understanding of
shape and angle geometric properties. Students can
interpret and apply data from tables and graphs to
solve problems. Six percent of Filipino students scored
in the intermediate range, indicating that they can
apply fundamental mathematical knowledge in simple
situations. Meanwhile, 19% of Filipino students scored
low, indicating that they have some basic
Table 3. Rank of the Philippines in the Trends in mathematical knowledge. They can add, subtract,
International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) multiply, and divide whole numbers with one and two
1995, 1999, 2003, and 2008 digits. They are able to solve simple word problems.
They understand simple fractions and common
geometric shapes. Simple bar graphs and tables can be
read and completed by students. (TIMSS, 2019, cited
by Bernardo, 2020).

The 2019 edition was held in 64 countries in the fourth

and eighth grades, but the Philippines only participated
in the fourth-grade assessment. In some ways, the
results are unsurprising, given that the Philippines has
consistently performed poorly in mathematics in
global assessments. It had not been able to move out of
the bottom five rankings since joining the Trends in
Mathematics and Science Study TIMSS (Mullis et al.,
2004).

With the aforementioned information regarding

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Research Article

students' poor performance, particularly in Table 4.

Mathematics, it is critical to review the curriculum and
make necessary revisions to alleviate the students'
alarming performance in TIMSS and other
international studies such as PISA, among others. The
study will be conducted to determine the predictors of
students' performance in the discipline in order to help
improve the quality of mathematics education in the
Philippines. The variables in the study were chosen
based on the literature and the recommendations of an
education expert.

Furthermore, because it represents the teaching,

learning, and leading standards in the setting of the
study's chosen basic education institution, the study
will serve as a benchmark. Furthermore, it will pave
the way for the improvement and harmonization of the
curriculum, learning competencies, and Trends in
International Mathematics and Science Study content.
Despite the fact that extensive studies have been
conducted to investigate the various problems and
challenges in the Philippine education system, it is still
very useful to identify the likely predictors that may
assist students in becoming more proficient in
Procedure
Mathematics.

The researcher was guided by the following

Methodology procedures:
1. Asked for approval from the school heads to
The predictive method was used in this study to see if conduct this study.
there is a linear combination that can predict student 2. The Mathematics teachers were asked to conduct
performance in TIMSS Mathematics Released Items. the test and questionnaire among the respondents to
gather necessary information.
Participants/Respondents 3. After collecting all the data, it was tallied, analyzed,
and interpreted.
The study was conducted in Cauayan City,
Philippines. A total of 49 selected high school
participated in the study.
Results and Discussion
Instruments of the Study

The 2011 TIMSS Mathematics Released Items was This section presents the findings in relation to the
adopted to assess the proficiency of the students in the research questions of the study. Multiple Linear
discipline. With regards to the selection of items Regression was used to identify the significant
included in the examination, mapping of the items in variables that can predict student performance in
2011 TIMSS released items and the Most Essential T I M S S M a t h e m a t i c s R e l e a s e d Items.
Learning Competencies (MELCS) was made.
Moreover, only 60 items were selected so that the
students can answer all the items completely since they
were only given one hour to answer. The table below
shows the Mathematics Assessment Devoted to
Content and Cognitive Domains of the test which was
based on the percentages of 2019 TIMSS-content and
cognitive domains.

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Psych Educ,2023, 6: 1037-1043, Document ID: PEMJ507, doi:10.5281/zenodo.7575160, ISSN 2822-4353
Research Article

Table 5. Performance of the respondents in TIMSS Table 6. Performance of the respondents in TIMSS
Released Items According to Content Domains Released Items According to Cognitive Domains

The Table 6 shows the level, frequency, and percent

distribution of the respondents in terms of cognitive
The performance of the respondents in relation to the domains. The Trends in International Mathematics and
content domains included in the TIMSS released items Science Study (TIMSS) includes three cognitive
was determined using frequency count and percentage. domains namely knowing, applying, and reasoning. In
In terms of numbers, the majority of respondents this study, 40.82% of the students reached the high
achieved the advanced level, indicating that they benchmark which is the dominant while 28.57%
performed better in that specific content domain. reached the advanced benchmark in terms of knowing.
When it comes to Algebra, the majority of students Meanwhile, for applying, 38.78% of the students
received high scores. The majority of students in finished intermediate benchmark which is the
Geometry were intermediate level, and intermediate dominant, 34.69% attained High benchmark, and
level scores dominated in Data and Chance. Students 18.37% reached advanced benchmark. When it comes
perform better in algebra in terms of high benchmark, to Reasoning, more than half (55.10%) of the students
indicating that they are better at representing problems reached the intermediate benchmark, 26.53% reached
using mathematical expressions. When it comes to high benchmark, and only 12.25% attained advanced
Geometry, however, only 10.20% of students met that benchmark. Although the outcome is encouraging,
standard. This implies that students did not perform there is still much work to be done because only a few
well when dealing with object shapes, sizes, angles, students have reached advanced benchmarks,
and dimensions. Although the geometry result is not particularly in applying and reasoning. Because
favorable when the high benchmark is considered, it mathematics places a greater emphasis on developing
should be noted that the number of students who students' applying and reasoning skills, it should be the
reached the intermediate benchmark is greater than the primary goal of all Mathematics teachers in the
number of students in numbers and algebra, and the country to assist students in improving their
same is true for data and chance. That is, those performance, particularly in national and international
students meet the minimum level because the assessments.
intermediate benchmark is the average level that the
students should achieve. Nonetheless, respondents in Table 7. Performance of the respondents in TIMSS
this study performed significantly better than students Released Items According to P rof i ciency
in the Philippines in the most recent TIMSS results. l evel/I nt ernat ional B enchmarks

According to table 7, the number of students who have

reached the high benchmark outnumber those who
have reached the intermediate benchmark.

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Research Article

Furthermore, 20.41% of students have achieved the Multiple regression, specifically stepwise regression,
advanced level. In the 2019 TIMSS results, only 1% of was used to determine the best linear combination of
Filipino students met the high benchmark, 6% met the grade 7 math average, availability of computers and
intermediate benchmark, and 19% met the low internet at home, and sex for predicting student
benchmark in Mathematics. Despite the fact that the performance in TIMSS Released Items. However,
study was conducted at the high school level and the prior to performing stepwise regression, assumptions
Philippines only participated in the 2019 TIMSS such as normality and collinearity were verified. The
elementary level, the results show that there is some Kolmogorov-Smirnov value is not statistically
improvement in student performance in the discipline. significant for normality, indicating that the data were
The country last participated in TIMSS in 2008, with normally distributed. The means, standard deviations,
elite students from Philippine Science High School and intercorrelations can be found in Table 5. This
and some private schools taking part. The Philippines combination of variables significantly predicted
finished last among participating countries in the 2008 students’ performance in TIMSS-released items,
TIMSS. F(3,31) = 8.080, p<0.001, with all three variables
significantly contributing to the prediction. The
Table 8. Means, Standard Deviations, and Inter adjusted R-squared value was .385. This implies that
38.5% of the variance in students’ performance was
Correlations for Performance in TIMSS Released
explained by the model. According to Cohen (1988), it
Items and Predictor Variables
is a large effect.

Conclusion

Based from the result of the study, the following

conclusions are drawn: (1) Numbers outperformed
Table 8 displays the mean, standard deviation, and
Algebra, Geometry, Data, and Chance in terms of
intercorrelations for TIMSS Released Items and
content domain performance. However, a greater
predictor performance. Predictor variables include
number of students achieved low benchmarks in
grade 7 math average, home computer and internet Geometry, indicating that they need to improve when
availability, and gender. The grade 7 average in dealing with sizes, shapes, positions, angles, and
mathematics (.435**) and sex (.356**) was positively dimensions of things, among other things. (2) In terms
correlated with performance. It implies that the higher of cognitive domains, students performed better for
the average in grade 7 mathematics and, if female, the items under knowing than for items under applying
better the performance in TIMSS released items. and reasoning. (3) In terms of proficiency level, none
According to Maslang (2022), the students' previous of the students met the low standard, while the
average is the best predictor of their current majority met the high benchmark. (4) The predictors
performance. Furthermore, the gender result (coded 1- of student’s performance in TIMSS released items
male, 2-female) is supported by a UNESCO report that include grade 7 average in mathematics, availability of
the Philippines is one of three Southeast Asian computers at home, and sex. The study can be used as
countries where girls outperform boys in Mathematics. a guide for determining the strengths and weaknesses
of students in TIMSS released items.
Table 9. Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis
Summary for Grade 7 average in Math, Availability of
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