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ACT A Population Forecasting

The document summarizes a linear model for predicting population growth in the Toronto Metro Area based on past population data from 2000-2021. It finds the population growth is well represented by a linear trendline. The model equation estimates: - The 2022 population will be 6.42 million - The 2027 population will be 6.83 million - The 2050 population will be 8.68 million - The 2100 population will be 12.71 million The estimates for later years are less certain as more factors could impact long term growth.

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Lavendar Roberts
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44 views3 pages

ACT A Population Forecasting

The document summarizes a linear model for predicting population growth in the Toronto Metro Area based on past population data from 2000-2021. It finds the population growth is well represented by a linear trendline. The model equation estimates: - The 2022 population will be 6.42 million - The 2027 population will be 6.83 million - The 2050 population will be 8.68 million - The 2100 population will be 12.71 million The estimates for later years are less certain as more factors could impact long term growth.

Uploaded by

Lavendar Roberts
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Natalie Domegan

Hoaming Meng
MAT135: TUT0306
October 8th, 2021

Population Forecast of the Toronto Metro Area

Introduction
Knowing how its population will grow is essential in making informed decisions for a
city. To make a good forecast, it is necessary to look at how a population has grown or shrunk in
the past. The following table gives the population of the Toronto Metro Area from the year 2000
to 2021.

Table of Values
2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
6.255 6.197 6.139 6.082 6.01 5.938 5.938 5.797 5.728 5.66 5.593

2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
5.499 5.403 5.309 5.216 5.125 5.035 4.948 4.861 4.777 4.694 4.607
(https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/20402/toronto/population)

Graph and Model


To better understand the behaviour of the population, I made a scatter plot of this data. A
linear trendline represented the data very well, the R^2 value was 0.994, so I assumed a linear
model was a good representation of the population growth.
The equation of the trendline is P(x) = 0.0806x + 4.65 with population (P) in millions as a
function of years after 2000 (x). To estimate the population in the years 2022, 2027, 2050, and
2100 I will simply plug in these years to the equation.

Justification
I think this will provide valid estimates because I believe many of the factors that drove
linear population growth in the past twenty years like the rise of automation, globalization and
growing administrative and institutional presence will continue into the future.
- As automation continues to disrupt employment, people will flock to automation-resistant
parts of the service sector as well as up-skilling and micro-credentialing programs
provided by higher education institutions to remain relevant in the new economy. These
things are all located in big cities like Toronto.¹
- Globalization is also driving urbanization. Results of globalization like international trade
and global investment are all centered around big cities, drawing wealth and employment
to these urban areas.² I believe globalization will continue, despite the pandemic. ³
- The growth of the government’s role in public life is also increasing urban population.
Government spending in Canada as a percent of GDP rose roughly 2% from 2000 to
2021. The technology sector, among others, have also become less competitive as certain
companies consolidated market-share and power. These trends all bring more jobs and
money into cities.⁴

Estimates
Population in 2022:
- P(22) = 0.0806(22) + 4.65 = 1.7732 + 4.65 = 6.4232
Therefore the estimated population in 2022 will be 6 423 200.
Population in 2027:
- P(27) = 0.0806(27) + 4.65 = 2.1762 + 4.65 = 6.8262
Therefore the estimated population in 2027 will be 6 826 200.
Population in 2050:
- P(50) = = 0.0806(50) + 4.65 = 4.03 + 4.65 = 8.68
Therefore the estimated population in 2027 will be 8 680 000.
Population in 2100:
- P(100) = = 0.0806(100) + 4.65 = 8.06 + 4.65 = 12.71
Therefore the estimated population in 2027 will be 12 710 000.

Considerations
Of course, as the estimates become farther from the present, the certainty and accuracy
decrease as we have much less perspective on what the world will look like in 79 years
compared to next year. There are also many factors on population growth that I did not include
for reasons of simplicity. I chose the ones I did as I considered them to be the most important
factors.

1. https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/mowatcentre/wp-content/uploads/publications/132_worki
ng_without_a_net.pdf
2. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-018-9359-y (urbanization)
3. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41267-020-00394-y (Globalization)
4. https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2017/03/federal-budgetary-co
mparisons-canada-the-united-states.html (Government growth)

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