Chapter 3 Probability

Terms used in probability theory

➢ Experiment
In probability term, an experiment is defined as a process
which generates a well-defined outcome that is not
predictable in advance, but where all possible outcomes
are known.

➢ Sample space, S
When we write down all the possible outcomes of our
experiment, we have defined the sample space of the
experiment. The possible outcomes in S are listed in curly
brackets, { }.
Set notation
Eg 1:
Experiment Sample Space
1) Throwing a coin. {Head, Tail}= {H, T}
2) Tossing two coins. {HH, HT, TH, TT}
3) Rolling a die once. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
4) Rolling a pair of dice. {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4),
(1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2),
(2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4),
(3,5), (3, 6), (4,1), (4,2),
(4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4),
(5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2),
(6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

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➢ Events
An event is a set of outcomes which satisfies a given
condition. It is a subset of the sample space. The event is
said to have occurred if the outcome of the experiment
(when it is performed) is contained in the event set.

Eg 2:
Experiment Possible events
1) Rolling a die. Event A = obtaining a 5 = { 5 }
Event B =obtaining an even
number
= { 2, 4, 6}
2)Tossing two coins. Event C = getting at least 1 head
={HH, HT, TH}
Event D = getting exactly 1 head
= {HT, TH}

➢ Venn diagram
A Venn diagram is a simple pictorial representation of the
relationships between events.

➢ Complement of an event
The complement of an event A is the event that A does not
occur. It is denoted by 𝐴̅ or A’ and contains all the
experimental outcomes that are not contained in event A.
Either A or 𝐴̅ is certain to occur when the experiment is

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 carried out as both events together contain all the
outcomes in the sample space.

➢ Union of Events
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The
union of events A and B is the collection of all outcomes
that belong either to A or B and is denoted by A  B.
(A or B)

➢ Intersection of Events
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The
intersection of A and B represents the collection of all
outcomes that are common to both A and B and is denoted
by A and B is denoted by A  B. (A and B)

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Probability, P
➢ Probability is a measurement of the likelihood (or chance,
possibility, proportion) of an event will occur in a given
sample space.
➢ In a sample space containing sample points that are equal
𝑛(𝐴)
likely to occur, 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛(𝑆)

where 𝑛(𝐴) = the number of points that satisfy the

definition of event A
𝑛(𝑆) = the number of sample points in the
entire sample space.
➢ The numerator of the probability ratio must be a positive
number or 0.
➢ The denominator of the probability ratio must be a positive
number (greater than 0).
The smallest value that probability can have is 0 (denoting
impossibility) and the largest value it can have is 1
(denoting a certainty). Thus, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
4 0
0
= math error 4
=0

Eg 3: In a business in a college, 90% of the students passed

Statistics, 95% of the students passed IT and 88% passed
both Statistics and IT. A student is selected at random.
a) What is the probability that the student passed Statistics
or IT?
b) What is the probability that the student passed neither
Statistics nor IT?

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Soln: Let T = Statistics
M = IT
Given P(T) = 0.90, P(M) = 0.95, P(TM) = 0.88

T M
0.02
0.88 0.07

0.03

a) P(TM) = 0.02 + 0.88 + 0.07 = 0.97

̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
b) P(𝑇 ∪ 𝑀) = 1 – 0.02 – 0.88 – 0.07 = 0.03
P(neither T nor M)=0.03

Eg 4: A survey of 350 families gave the following data on the

number of children under 16 years old in each family:
Number of children under 16 Frequency
years old
0 185
1 51
2 90
3 or more (at least 3) 24
Total 350

Find the probability of the following events:

a) A, a family selected no children;
b) B, a family selected has at least one child.

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 185 37 51+90+24 165
a) P(A) = 350 = 70 b) P(B) = = 350
350
33
=
70

Eg 5: A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find

the probability of getting
a) a queen b) an eight c) a picture
4 1
a) P(queen) = 52 = 13
4 1
b) P(an eight) = 52 = 13
12 3
c) P(a picture) = 52 = 13

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Eg 6: Jenny has a set of seven cards numbered 1 to 7. A card is
drawn randomly from the set of cards. Find the
probability that the number drawn is
a) 7 b) not 7
1 1 6
a) P(7) = 7 b) P(not 7) = 1 − =
7 7

P(A) + P(A’) = 1

Eg 7: A box contains 15 mathematics books. A book is

randomly selected. Find the probability that the book
selected is
a) a mathematics book b) a history book

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a) P(mathematics book) = 15 = 1
0
b) P(history book) = 15 = 0

Additive Rule of Probability

➢ Let A and B be two events,

or and
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)

where AB – the event that A occurs or B occurs or both

events A and B occur.
AB – the event that both events A and B occur
together.

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Eg 8: Probabilities of events C and D are such that
4 1 1
𝑃(𝐶 ) = 9 , 𝑃(𝐷) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷 ) = 9, find 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷 ).

P(CD) = P(C) + P(D) – P(CD)

4 1 1
=9+3−9
2
= (3m)
3

Eg 9: A club consists of 80 members, 50 are females and 30

are males. Fifteen of the females wear glasses while 10
of the males wear glasses. If a member is selected at
random, what is the probability the selected person is a
male or is wearing glasses?

G G’ Total
F 15 35 50
M 10 20 30
Total 25 55 80
P(MG) = P(M) + P(G) – P(MG)
30 25 10
= 80 + 80 − 80
9
= = 0.5625
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➢ Probability of three events

𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 )
= 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵 ) + 𝑃(𝐶 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) +
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Eg 10: A population of 80 women in a village is divided into

three categories working women (W), university
graduate (G), and married women (M) as shown in the
Venn diagram below. A woman is selected at random
from the village. Find the probability that
a) she is not working,
b) she is working and is married,
c) she is a university graduate and working,
d) she is not a university graduate, but working and is
and
not married.

4
G 16

8 8
4
M 12 8 20 W

16+8+12+4 40 1
a) P(W’) = = 80 = 2
80
4+8 12 3
b) P(WM) = = 80 = 20
80
4+8 12 3
c) P(GW) = = 80 = 20
80

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 20 1
d) P(G’WM’) = 80 = 4

Mutually Exclusive Events

➢ Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur at the same time.

➢ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Eg 11: Determine which events are mutually exclusive and

which are not when a dice is rolled.
a) getting a 3 and getting a 6. Mutually Exclusive
b) getting an even number and getting an odd number.
Mutually Exclusive
c) getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number
less than 3. Mutually Exclusive
d) getting an even number and getting a number greater
than 4. Not Mutually Exclusive

Eg 12: A developer has 3 red houses, 5 green houses and 6

yellow houses. If a customer randomly selects a house,
find the probability that it will be either a red or a yellow
house.
P(RedYellow)= 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑) + 𝑃(𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) – 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑  𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤)

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 3 6
= 14 + 14 − 0
9
= 14 (3m)

Eg 13: A card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. Find the

probability of drawing either a queen or an eight.
P(queen  eight)= 𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) +
𝑃(𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡) – 𝑃(𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛  𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡)
4 4
= 52 + 52 − 0
2
= 13

Eg 14: If C is the event “drawing a king” from a deck of 52

cards and D is the event “drawing a heart”, find the
probability of drawing either a king or a heart or both.
P(king  heart) = 𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) + 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡) – 𝑃(𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔  ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡)
4 13 1
= + −
52 52 52
4
= 13

King and Heart are not mutually exclusive because P(King 

Heart) ≠ 0.

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Independent Events
➢ Two events A and B are independent when the occurrence
or non-occurrence of one event has no effect on the
probability of occurrence of the other event.
and
➢ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

➢ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)

Eg 15: A bag contains 8 black marbles, 5 red marbles and 6

green marbles. All the marbles are of same sizes. Two
marbles are selected randomly from the bag in
succession with replacement. Find the probability that
a) both the marbles are black,
b) only one of the marbles picked is black,
c) both the marbles are of the same colour.
n(B) =8 n(R) =5 n(G) =6 n(S) = 19
8 8 64
a) P(BB) = × = = P(BB)
19 19 361

b) P(only 1B) = P(BB’) + P(B’B)

8 11 11 8
= (19 × 19) + (19 × 19)
176
= 361

c) P(same colour) = P(BB) + P(RR) + P(GG)

64 5 5 6 6
= 361 + (19 × 19) + (19 × 19)
125
= 361
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Eg 16: Three balls are drawn successively from a box
containing 5 green balls, 3 white balls and 4 blue balls.
Find the probability that they are drawn in the order
green, white and blue if each ball is
a) replaced b) not replaced
independent Not independent, dependent

5 3 4 5
a) P(GWB) = 12 × 12 × 12 = 144
5 3 4 1
b) P(GWB) = 12 × 11 × 10 =22

Conditional Probability (3 or 4 marks)

When an event happens is considered with the condition that
another event happens, then the event is a conditional event.
The conditional probability of the occurrence of event B given
that event A has occurred, denoted by P(B|A) is defined by
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = if P(A) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
Similarly, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = if P(B) > 0
𝑃(𝐵)

Eg 17: A fair die is tossed, and an odd number occurs. What is

the probability the number is less than 5?
n(odd) = 3 n(<5) = 4 n(odd  <5) = 2 = 𝑛({1,3})
n(S) = 6
𝑃(<5 ∩ 𝑜𝑑𝑑)
P(<5odd) =
𝑃(𝑜𝑑𝑑)

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 2⁄ 2
6
= 3⁄ =3
6

Eg 18: A company has 60 workers; 70% of them are males and

the rest are females. Twenty of the male workers are
married while 10 of the females are married. A worker
is randomly selected from the company. If it is known
that the worker selected is married, what is the
probability that the person is a female?

Ma Ma’ Total
M 20 22 42
F 10 8 18
Total 30 30 60

𝑃(𝐹∩𝑀𝑎)
P(FMa) = 𝑃(𝑀𝑎)
10⁄ 1
60
= 30⁄ =3
60

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Eg 19: The following contingency table describes 200
customers of an electrical store according to gender
and age.
Age Gender Total
Male Female
Under 30 60 50 110
30 and over 80 10 90
Total 140 60 200
If a person is selected randomly from the 200
customers, what is the probability that the person is
“under 30” given that he is “male”?
𝑃(𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 30 ∩ 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)
P(under 30male) = 𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)
60⁄ 3
200
= 140⁄ =7
200

Contingency table (10 m)

A contingency table is a table in which all possible events (or
outcomes) for one variable are listed as row headings and all
possible events for a second variable are listed as column
headings. The value entered in each cell of the table is the
observed frequency of each joint occurrence.

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Eg 26: The following contingency table describes 200
customers of an electrical store according to age and
gender.
Age Gender Total
Male (M) Female (F)
Under 30 (A) 60 50 110
30 and over (B) 80 10 90
Total 140 60 200
A person is selected from the 200 customers.
a) Find P(M), P(F) and P(A).
b) Find P(MA) and P(FB).
c) Find P(A|M) and P(F|B).
d) Are the events “Age under 30 (A)” and “Male
customer (M)” mutually exclusive? Explain.
e) Are the events “Age under 30 (A)” and “Male
customer (M)” independent? Explain.

Solution:
140 7
a) P(M) = 200 = 10
60 3
P(F) = 200 = 10
110 11
P(A) = 200 = 20 (1m)

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 60 3
b) P(MA) = 200 = 10
10 1
P(FB) = = (2m)
200 20

𝑃(𝐴∩𝑀) 3⁄ 3
10
c) P(AM) = = 7⁄ =7 (3m)
𝑃(𝑀) 10

𝑃(𝐹∩𝐵) 10⁄ 1
200
P(FB) = = 90⁄ =9
𝑃(𝐵) 200
3
d) P(AM) = 10 ≠ 0

A and M not mutually exclusive. (2m)

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e) P(AM) = 10 = 0.3
11 7 77
P(A)×P(M) = 20 × 10 = 200

P(AM) ≠ P(A)×P(M)
A and M are not independent. (4m)

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Tree Diagram
➢ Is a graphical aid to help us visualize problems involving
combinations of trials. It can be used whenever the
probability of each stage of the outcomes is dependent on
the previous one or not.
➢ A useful way for portraying conditional and joint
probabilities.
➢ Each outcome is represented by a branch of the tree.

Eg 20: Draw the probability tree for the experiment of tossing

a coin 3 times.
H
H
T
H H
T
T

H
H G
T

T
H
T
T

S={HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT}

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Eg 21: A lorry makes just two trips per day and on each trip is
likely to carry a heavy load (H) with probability 0.25.
Assuming the load carried in the second part of the day
is independent of the previous load, what is the
probability that the lorry carries just one heavy load on
a particular day?

Joint Probabilities

0.25 H 0.25×0.25 = 0.0625

H
0.25 0.25×0.75 = 0.1875
0.75 H’

0.25 H 0.75×0.25 = 0.1875

0.75 H’
0.75 H’ 0.75×0.75=0.5625

P(just one H) = P(HH’) + P(H’H)

= 0.1875+ 0.1875
= 0.375

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Eg 22: A passenger arriving at an airport can hire taxi from
companies A, B and C. It is known that 40% of the
passengers hire taxi from company A, 50% from
company B and 10% from company C. For taxi hired
from company A, 10% arrive late. The corresponding
percentages of taxi hired that arrived late for company
B and C are respectively 8% and 20%.
a) Find the probability that the taxi hired
i) will be late,
ii) will be from A and will not late.
b) Given that a call is made for a taxi and that it arrives
late, find the probability that it is from company B.
0.1 late
A
0.9 not late
0.4
0.08 late
0.5
B
0.92 not late

0.1
0.2 late
C
0.8 not late

a) i) P(late) = (0.4 × 0.1) + (0.5 × 0.08) + (0.1 × 0.2)

= 0.1
ii) P(A  not late) = 0.4 × 0.9 = 0.36
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒) 0.5×0.08
b) P(Blate) = =
𝑃(𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒) 0.1

= 0.4 (3m)

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Eg 23: A bag contains 6 red discs, 4 green discs and 2 yellow
discs. A disc is drawn and not replaced. A second disc is
drawn.
a) Draw a tree diagram to show the process.
b) Find the probability of drawing two red discs.
c) Find the probability of drawing one green disc and
one yellow disc.
d) Find the probability of drawing two discs of the
same colour.

5
11
R
a) 4
6 11 G
12 R 2
11 6 Y
4 11 R
12 G 3
2 11
G
11 Y
2 6
11 R
12 4
Y 11 G
1
11 Y

6 5 5
b) P(RR) = 12 × 11 = 22
4 2 2 4 4
c) P(1G1Y) = (12 × 11) + (12 × 11) = 33
6 5 4 3 2 1
d) P(same colour) = (12 × 11) + (12 × 11) + (12 × 11)
1
=3

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Extra Example: Tree diagram
In a secondary school, 25% of students are from Science
stream. Among these students, 54% of them awarded
scholarships to study in NUS. Meanwhile, among the students
who are not from the Science stream, 20% of them are
awarded scholarships to study in NUS.
a) Illustrate the information above by constructing a well-
labelled probability tree diagram with joint probability
calculated.
b) Find the probability that a randomly selected student is
not from Science stream.
c) Find the probability that a randomly selected student is
from Science stream or is not awarded scholarship to
study in NUS.
a) Let S = Science stream
X = awarded scholarships to study in NUS
Joint Probabilities

0.54 X
0.25 × 0.54 =0.135
0.25
S 0.25× 0.46 =0.115
0.46 X’
0.75×0.2 = 0.15
0.2 X
0.75 S’ 0.75×0.8 = 0.6
0.8 X’
1.0
b) P(S’) =0.75
c) P(S  X’) = P(S) + P(X’) – P(S  X’)
= 0.25 + (0.25×0.46 + 0.75 ×0.8) – 0.115 = 0.85

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