China Development Strategy
China Development Strategy
China Development Strategy
In the latter part of the 1990s the discussion of the knowledge economy became very intense in China, as a perception arose that Chinas continuing development would take place in a quite new world. This discussion was vigorous and influential at the highest level, but became increasingly diffuse, as different participants used concepts in very different ways and came to quite different conclusions. The relevance of the concept of the knowledge economy to the quite specific circumstances of China also began to be questioned. The essays in this volume express this diversity of viewpoints and approaches, as well as the need to explore the relevance of the knowledge economy to Chinas situation. By bringing together the work of a range of distinguished Chinese scholars, leading authorities from the OECD and the World Bank, and authors from Australia and several other countries, we aim to illuminate many different aspects of this important topic. This introductory chapter does not seek to summarise or review the individual papers assembled here the introductions to each part of the book provide summary information for the interested reader. Rather we set out to address briefly some of the key questions that have arisen within the Chinese debate, and in particular to explore the relevance of the knowledge economy to Chinas development strategy. Our central argument is that the knowledge economy, as we interpret it, is of decisive importance for China. This is because the knowledge economy will provide a fundamentally different global context for Chinas development, one very different from the context of recent decades and far removed from that in which
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the developed countries, and even the East Asian Tigers, achieved sustained growth. This quite new context means, for example, that the traditional development strategy based on industrialisation will not be sufficient, as global manufacturing becomes highly productive, intensely competitive and providing an ever smaller share of total employment. It also means that Chinas response to the knowledge economy will not simply involve a progressive adaptation to the institutions, systems and policies prevailing in advanced countries and forged in the industrial era. New and distinctive approaches to development strategy, which take account of both Chinas specific circumstances and the new global realities, need to be thought out as a matter of urgency. Such approaches will require, in our view, new emphases in a number of areas. These may include directly stimulating service sector growth; giving priority to employment growth rather than to increases in output or productivity, and to new product and quality-enhancing process technologies rather than to labour-saving new process technologies; and improving rural output and related activities to enable continued high levels of employment in rural areas. The development strategies appropriate for the knowledge economy are not yet understood, certainly not by the present authors. It is our hope that the various papers in this book, with their diversity of approaches and author backgrounds, may contribute to building such an understanding. In this way they may assist in addressing the fundamental challenge, facing both China and other developing countries, of reshaping their strategies to come to grips with the emerging reality of the knowledge economy.
1.
Background Starting in April 1997, a fever of knowledge economy discussion swept China, with the publication of the Chinese version of the OECD report The Knowledgebased Economy (OECD 1997) and other related writings, including Australia and the Knowledge Economy (Sheehan et al. 1997). From the president of the nation to the ordinary citizen, from the dynamic Pearl River Delta to the vast yellow plateau in the west, people engaged in energetic discussions and debates on questions related to the knowledge economy. These debates and discussions were influenced and shaped by the events that followed, which included, among many others: the submission of the report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on Knowledge Innovation to Chinas leadership, and the subsequent approval of the Academys Knowledge Innovation Project; the Asian financial crisis and its impact; the rise and fall of the Internet economy;
the backlash about globalisation in many countries; and the agreement for China to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO). To some people, the concept of the knowledge economy means a new economic paradigm, while to others it signifies an entirely new social transformation of which the economy is only a part. There are also disagreements about the similarities and differences between the concept of the knowledge economy and other concepts, such as the information economy, the new economy and the networked economy. Another major debate is about whether it is too early for China to even talk about the knowledge economy, given that the industrial economy of China is still in its early development stage. While all these discussions and debates proceeded, China also felt compelled to put words into action. With the support of the government, the Chinese Academy of Sciences started a program named Knowledge Innovation, aimed at restructuring the more than one hundred research institutes for which it is responsible and making them more effective and efficient in knowledge generation and application. The Ministry of Education has also initiated a program to revitalise Chinas education system to prepare for the challenges of the knowledge economy in the new century. More generally, the Decision on Encouraging Technological Innovation, Developing High-Tech Industry and Realising Commercialisation of New Technologies taken by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in 1999 was an example of a high level response to these matters. Issues of concern During these debates, and the initial responses to which they have given rise, three sets of issues have been of continuing concern, as outlined below. The first set of issues is at the conceptual level. What is the knowledge economy? Is it a vision for development that can be implemented and realised, or is it an abstract theoretical concept that should remain in the domain of academia only? What is the new economy? What is the networked economy? What are the differences and relationships between the knowledge economy, the new economy, and the network economy? What is the relationship between the knowledge economy and the globalisation of the world economy? Does the new economy still follow traditional economic principles? What are the new rules or principles of the knowledge economy, if there are any such? The second set of issues relates to the relevance of the knowledge economy to China. Why is China so concerned with the concept of the knowledge economy when it is only now making the transition from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy? The knowledge economy has often been presented as one based on a strong science and technology base and on high-tech industries. Given that China is still lagging behind in these areas and is struggling to provide jobs for its huge working population, does it make sense to talk about a knowledge economy? Should China not focus on labour-intensive industries instead? What is the difference between the knowledge economy and invigorating China
through science and education (one of the two basic strategies proposed by the Chinese leadership in 1995)? If the two are essentially the same, why bother to introduce something new to confuse people? The third set of concerns questions of implementation. Is the idea of the knowledge economy a concept, a theory, or an action plan? How does the concept or theory guide our action? What are the specific and concrete ideas to implement the concept of the knowledge economy besides more investment in science, technology and education? Is it possible to strive for a knowledge economy and society in some parts of a country but not in the others? Given that the knowledge economy is often associated with high-tech and information industries, what are the implications of the knowledge economy for traditional industry? It is not possible in this chapter to address all of these important questions directly. Many of them are taken up, in one way or another, in the other papers in this volume. But we undertake two tasks to give an answer to some of them. First, we outline an overall approach to the knowledge economy, addressing the conceptual issues in a way consistent with the bulk of the international literature. This material is intended to provide a framework in which the relevance and implementation issues can be addressed. In the remainder of this chapter, we explore one issue that goes to the heart of such questions the implications of the knowledge economy for Chinas development strategy.
2.
Conceptual issues
To outline a preferred view of the knowledge economy, we start with the key conceptual questions noted above. Clearly concepts can be introduced and defined in different ways, and there is no absolute answer to these questions. But we outline below the conceptual approach that, in our view, is both most useful and most consistent with the best work that has been done in this area. The concept of the global knowledge economy The technological and policy realities of the modern world are driving the emergence of a quite new set of activities, structures and arrangements in the global economy. Here we follow OECD (1996) and other authors in describing this emerging set of activities, structures and arrangements as a knowledge-based economy, and often use the term the global knowledge economy (see also World Bank 1998, and Sheehan and Tegart 1998). The central technological facts leading to the global knowledge economy derive from the revolution in information technology. They include the ability to deliver codified knowledge, assembled on a global basis if necessary, very quickly and very cheaply to the area where it is needed, to transform such knowledge extensively as required and to make it effective in machines and other production and service delivery processes. The central policy fact is the global trend to the deregulation of the flow of goods, capital, technology and services, and of national
processes of production and distribution. The entry of China into the WTO, and the policy responses within China to prepare for this entry, are examples of this policy dynamic at work. These two factors have had mutually reinforcing effects, and many other forces are also contributing to shaping the new global economy. The term global knowledge economy makes explicit reference to what we take to be the defining characteristics of the world economy emerging as a result of these causal factors: the rise in the knowledge intensity of economic activities and the increasing globalisation of economic affairs. But this term is intended to refer to the overall economic system that is emerging, rather than to these characteristics alone. Thus, as we use the term, the global knowledge economy is neither a purely theoretical concept nor a vision of development for China. It is a descriptive concept seeking to express the central reality of the current stage of global economic development. In our view, and that of many others, the world economy is moving from the industrial era to become a global knowledge economy. Nations, whether rich or poor, large or small, need to respond to this emerging reality, and to shape their development strategies having regard to it. One defining feature of the global knowledge economy is the growing incorporation of knowledge into economic activities involving both goods and services. Knowledge becomes incorporated in productive activities in many different ways, ranging from learning by doing by operators on the shop-floor to formal processes of knowledge generation and application, of training and of investment in advanced equipment. The economic value of a typical knowledge-intensive good an advanced aircraft, a drug, a computer or a smart card goes far beyond the value of the materials of which it is composed, in virtue of the knowledge embodied in the product. Similarly, services such as medical diagnosis and treatment, education and training, and business consulting rely heavily on embodied knowledge. The second defining feature is equally important: the rapid globalisation of economic activities. The extraordinary pace of globalisation over the last decade or so has reflected the intertwined effects of both policy change and developments in information technology, with the computing and communications revolution providing the basic infrastructure necessary for rapid globalisation to occur. The process of globalisation has not involved by any means only increased trade in goods, although this is of great importance. Indeed, there are at least five matters involved in globalisation: foreign direct investment, capital transfers other than direct investment, trade flows of goods and of services, and knowledge and technology transfers (Hatzichronoglou 1996). These aspects of globalisation are of course interrelated. For example, the links between direct investment, technology transfers and the various trade flows will often be particularly close, and the growing interrelationship between trade, finance and technology flows is itself a significant feature of the process of globalisation. Other features include the existence in all major markets of global competition between competitors
from all major countries, the increasingly multinational origin of the inputs to production of both goods and services, and the growth of trade between countries within the same industry and indeed in the same product. So the answers that we propose to some of the questions about the knowledge economy noted above are as follows. The global knowledge economy is a new set of activities, structures and arrangements that is evolving on a global basis, as a result of the combined influence of the information technology revolution and sustained policy initiatives to promote openness and deregulation. As such it represents a new stage of the world economy, subsequent to and in key respects different from that of the industrial era. The knowledge economy refers to the new overall structure that is emerging, together with its associated institutions, activities and arrangements. Attention is often given to individual aspects of the emerging economy, such as the new economy or the online economy, the network economy, the learning economy and the information economy. But these are specific aspects rather than the overall reality. The Internet plays an important part in the knowledge economy, and networks of many different types are also vital. Learning is clearly central to a knowledge economy, as is the rapid exchange of information and other forms of knowledge. Innovation, being the process of applying ideas new to the firm in many different areas, is clearly at the heart of a vibrant knowledge economy. Each of these concepts views the overall reality of the knowledge economy through a different lens, thereby illuminating an important part of the picture. The rise of the industrial economy had a major impact, whether for good or ill, on all countries, radically reshaping the position of nations and the lives of individuals. Similarly, the knowledge economy will have profound and pervasive implications, in ways that we cannot yet fully comprehend. The changing nature of manufacturing It is not possible here to discuss the many and varied characteristics of the global knowledge economy. Given our emphasis on implications for Chinas development strategy, and the focus of that strategy to date on manufacturing, we explore briefly the changing nature of manufacturing in the knowledge economy. These matters are discussed further in Chapter 4 in this volume. Perhaps the most obvious feature of contemporary manufacturing is the continuing rapid rise in labour productivity, measured as value added per employee. Reflecting new process technologies, increasing capital intensity and the pressures of global competition, real manufacturing productivity in the major economies has grown at about 3.5 per cent per annum since 1970, a rate at which it doubles every 20 years. In Japan, for example, productivity in manufacturing grew by 3.6 per cent per annum between 1970 and 1998, in spite of much slower growth in the drawn-out Japanese recession of the 1990s (OECD 2002). Indeed, between 1970 and 1991 the growth rate was 4.2 per cent per annum. In the USA real manufacturing productivity grew by 3.3 per cent between 1977 and 1999,
with more rapid growth in the 1990s between 1992 and 1999 the growth rate was 4.6 per cent, a rate at which productivity doubles every 16 years (OECD 2002). By 1999 value added per head in US manufacturing was US$80 000 per employee in current prices. This continuing rapid rise in productivity explains why, in developed countries, manufacturing remains central to economic growth in spite of providing a declining share of total employment. This continued importance is linked to two other features manufacturing firms are becoming increasingly embedded in global systems for the creation, production and distribution of goods and manufacturing is becoming increasingly integrated with knowledge-intensive services. Many so-called manufacturing firms are now focused on creating products to meet identified market demand, and on delivering those products to specific markets at an appropriate time, place, quality and cost. Given rising productivity and advanced process technologies, the actual production stage is a declining share of overall value added. Even within pure production companies, the demand for tradesmen and production workers has fallen relative to that for knowledgeintensive services such as accountants, process controllers, IT specialists and managers. As argued in Chapter 4, these developments may have profound implications for developing countries such as China. As manufacturing becomes further integrated with related service-based activities in a global system, it will be increasingly difficult to separate high-value manufacturing geographically from its related services. Low-value manufacturing, involving mass production of standardised items and assembly operations, is being outsourced on a competitive global basis to low-cost locations, as evidenced in the transfer of much of Hong Kongs final production to Guangdong during the 1990s (Berger and Lester 1997). Such transfer of low-value manufacturing to other areas of China has accelerated in the last few years, generating hopes that China is becoming the global manufacturing centre. But higher value, flexible and service-enhanced manufacturing must be located where it can be integrated with its related services. Hence it is more likely to be located where there are highly developed service industries, where the customers are, or where there are highly developed information and communication technology and transport and distribution systems. Given these trends, and the progressive opening of world markets, it is becoming increasingly difficult for developing countries to base their development strategies on globally oriented manufacturing in the knowledge economy. And even if they succeed, as China has done to date, the pay-off in terms of employment growth in manufacturing is likely to be modest.
3.
In the debate about the knowledge economy and Chinas development strategy, it is possible to distinguish three broad views. One might be described as the
irrelevance view: talk of the knowledge economy and of high-tech industrial development is a dangerous distraction from the central challenges facing China, that of increasing output and employment in low-tech industries where China can be competitive because of low costs. Knowledge economy fever, a disease to which scientific and policy elites are particularly susceptible, can divert attention from the mundane tasks involved in increasing output and employment in a still relatively poor economy. It is thus irrelevant to the central issues facing Chinas development. While this view is often expressed in informal discussions and often generates intense debates within China, one can rarely find explicit elaboration of it in open literature in China. The second view might be described as the enhanced industrial economy view: the knowledge economy is an enhanced state of the industrial economy, one in which the roles of knowledge and of global competition are greatly enhanced. A successful knowledge economy is one that fosters effectively the creation and acquisition of knowledge, and its application to all aspects of economic and social life. But there is no fundamental change, the knowledge economy being simply an intensification of processes long under way in the industrial economy. The broad implication is that China needs upgraded knowledge and skills, especially in manufacturing and agriculture, and to increase productivity. Hence China needs to move towards the systems and structures that have proven effective in advanced economies, and to develop their innovation systems in this direction over time. A relatively well-defined path is available from the experience of other nations, and policies are necessary to move vigorously along these paths. A representative example of this view is the important World Bank publication China and the Knowledge Economy: Seizing the 21st Century (World Bank 2001). The third view might be described as the global transformation view: that the knowledge economy represents a fundamental change in the structure and character of the global economy, one potentially as profound as the original Industrial Revolution. Thus the strategies appropriate for China and other developing countries in this new world might be quite different from those successful in the developed countries and in the rapidly industrialising economies of East Asian. These strategies need to be thought out anew in the light of both emerging global trends and the particular characteristics of China. There is no guarantee that traditional development paths will give acceptable results in the knowledge economy. A number of the authors represented in this volume explicitly or implicitly subscribe to this view. It will be apparent from the discussion above that we hold that the irrelevance view is not correct. The knowledge economy is not code for high-tech industries, but is a pervasive transformation affecting every region and all industries. The clothing and textiles industries provide a good example. Complex processes involving global flows of technology, design and marketing information, and the segmentation of product systems are reshaping these industries. The scope for
capturing significant valued added within the clothing and textile industries by competition based on low costs is declining rapidly. As a result, it is not a viable option for individual countries to ignore the knowledge economy and to pursue growth in the industries in which they are currently cost competitive. The forces of the knowledge economy are transforming those very industries, and the basis of competitiveness within them. Even so, the concerns that drive the irrelevance view the critical importance of the employment issue and of low-tech industries in China, and its limited position in advanced industries remain of central importance. The knowledge economy is the essential global context within which Chinas development will proceed, but it is not an excuse for ignoring the basic realities of Chinas situation. In the remainder of this chapter we explore the issue of whether an enhanced industrial strategy is viable for China in the emerging knowledge economy, or whether the more comprehensive redirection of development strategy suggested by the global transformation view is necessary. To provide the background necessary to address this issue, we document the basic arithmetic of Chinas development in the next section.
4.
One of the best-known features of Chinas development since the beginning of the reform movement in 1979 is the very high rates of growth in real GDP which have been achieved. As shown in Table 1.1, the average annual rate of growth of Chinas real GDP was close to 10 per cent in both the 1980s and the 1990s, almost double the growth rate in the pre-reform decade of the 1970s. Sustained growth rates of 10 per cent per annum for two decades are comparable with the very best rates achieved in the countries of the East Asian Miracle, and in stark contrast to falling levels of real GDP in many transition economies in Eastern Europe over much of this period. Growth in China moderated during the 1990s, but still averaged 8.3 per cent per annum between 1995 and 2000. There has been some questioning of, and a good deal of discussion about, the accuracy of the official figures showing these high growth rates (e.g. Maddison 1998; Xu 1999; Rawski 2001). But the responses that have been generated seem to indicate that the high growth is in large part credible, and our argument is not sensitive to modest revisions in the official figures. Real GDP, employment and productivity, by sector The composition of this growth by broad economic sector1 is also shown in Table
1 In terms of definitions of the sectors, we follow the National Bureau of Statistics of China, although using slightly different terms to designate the three sectors. Thus agriculture includes farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing. Industry is broadly defined to cover mining, manufacturing, the production and supply of electricity, gas and water, and construction. All other industries are included in services.
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1.1. The National Bureau of Statistics publishes data for real growth rates in GDP (in total and for the sectors) in comparable prices, which involves valuing year 2s net value added in terms of year 1s prices, and so on, on a rolling basis. To obtain data series expressed in yuan, we have applied (both backwards and forwards) the published set of annual growth rates to the actual GDP values in yuan for 1990, to obtain numerical values for GDP and its sectoral components in estimated 1990 values. (It should be noted that these are not estimates in 1990 prices in the standard sense, namely that each years output has been valued in the prices of 1990.) The growth of Chinas GDP has been increasingly dominated by industry, of which manufacturing is the major component. During the 1980s industrial GDP grew by 10.6 per cent per annum, and contributed 55 per cent of total real GDP growth; in the 1990s it grew at 13.6 per cent per annum and contributed 62 per cent of total GDP growth. By 2000 industry accounted for 56.5 per cent of GDP. But the service sector also grew strongly (at 12.6% and 9.1% per annum in the two decades respectively) and contributed 28 per cent of real GDP by 2000. While these growth rates are remarkable, even more striking is the fact that in the 1990s it took 10.1 per cent per annum growth in real GDP to generate only 1.1 per cent growth in employment (Table 1.2), implying overall labour productivity growth of just on 9 per cent per annum (Table 1.3). In this decade real industrial GDP increased by 13.6 per cent per annum, but industrial employment increased by only 1.6 per cent per annum. Employment in agriculture fell by 7.4 per cent or 28.4 million over the decade. Thus in this decade China experienced something close to jobless growth, a phenomenon much discussed in relation to the developed countries, and a potentially serious issue in a country with such a massive labour force.
Table 1.1 Real GDP, by sector (estimated 1990 values), 19702000 Agriculture Industry Services (100 billion yuan, at 1990 values) 1970 1980 1985 1989 1990 1995 2000 Annual growth rates 197080 198090 19902000 199095 19952000 2.5 3.0 4.3 4.9 5.0 6.1 7.3 2.0 5.3 3.8 4.2 3.5 1.2 1.0 2.8 1.8 4.4 3.2 7.4 5.5 7.7 5.8 17.2 9.4 27.5 13.8 (per cent per annum) 9.1 6.0 10.6 12.6 13.6 9.1 17.4 10.0 9.8 8.2 Total 4.6 7.6 11.9 17.8 18.5 32.7 48.7 5.1 9.3 10.1 12.0 8.3
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Table 1.2
Employment in China, by sector, 19702000 Agriculture Industry Services (million persons) 35.2 77.1 103.8 119.8 136.5 156.3 160.1 (per cent per 8.2 5.0 1.6 2.7 0.5 31.0 55.3 83.6 101.3 118.3 168.5 195.7 annum) 6.0 7.0 5.2 7.3 3.0 Total 344.3 423.6 498.7 553.4 639.0 679.5 711.6 2.1 3.0 1.1 1.2 0.9
1970 1980 1985 1989 1990 1995 2000 Annual growth rates 197080 198089 19902000 199095 19952000
278.1 291.2 311.3 332.3 384.2 354.7 355.8 0.5 1.5 0.8 1.6 0.1
Note: There is a break in the published employment data for China between 1989 and 1990. Employment data for both these years are shown in the table (and also for productivity in Table 1.3), and for these two series the growth rates for the 1980s are calculated between 1980 and 1989. Sources: National Bureau of Statistics 2001 and estimates of the authors. Table 1.3 Productivity (real GDP per employee) by sector, China, 19702000 Agriculture Annual growth rates 197080 198089 19902000 199095 19952000 1.5 4.0 4.6 5.8 3.4 Industry Services (per cent per annum) 0.8 6.0 11.8 14.3 9.3 0.0 6.1 3.7 2.5 5.0 Total 2.9 6.7 8.9 10.7 7.3
Note: The growth rates for the 1980s are calculated between 1980 and 1989; see note to Table 1.2. Sources: National Bureau of Statistics 2001 and estimates of the authors.
The contrast between the 1970s and the 1990s in this regard is striking growth in real GDP in the 1970s (5.1%) was only half that in the 1990s, but employment growth (2.1%) was almost twice the 1990s rate. The difference is, of course, to be found in the rate of productivity growth, which underpinned the rapid growth in living standards in the 1990s. This trend towards jobless growth was in some respect more pronounced in the second half of the 1990s, as the superheated growth of the first half of the decade slowed significantly. With real GDP growth of 8.3 per cent per annum between 1995 and 2000, employment grew by only 0.9 per cent per annum, and almost all of that growth was in the services sector (Table 1.2). Employment in agriculture and industry combined grew by only 4.9 million or 0.2 per cent per annum over
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the five-year period, whereas employment in services grew by 27.2 million, or 3.0 per cent per annum. In industry, growth in real GDP of 9.8 per cent per annum generated an employment growth rate of only 0.5 per cent per annum, and all of this growth was in 1996 between 1996 and 2000 employment in manufacturing fell somewhat. This analysis takes the official employment figures as well as the official GDP figures at face value, and there are many further points that should be taken account of in a more complete analysis. For example, the process of reform of state-owned enterprises that began in the latter part of the 1990s meant that these enterprises began to lay off surplus labour, contributing to the appearance of jobless growth. This reform process still has a long way to go, however, so that it will continue to be an important factor through the next decade. There are also real questions about the accuracy of the industrial classification of employment in China. For example, with many people moving from the countryside to coastal provinces such as Guangdong or to the large cities to find employment in industry or services, in some cases their registration may be still in the countryside, so that they are counted as employed in agriculture. This factor may lead to an overstatement of agricultural employment relative to employment in other industries. Our analysis must be interpreted with these and other qualifications in mind. Employment and productivity growth: The central dilemma In spite of such qualifications, this trend towards jobless growth, especially in industry, contributes to perhaps the central dilemma of Chinese development strategy. Chinas labour productivity levels are low by international standards, in spite of the rapid growth rates shown in Table 1.3. For example, the World Bank study cited above (World Bank 2001) reported that Chinas agricultural productivity (for 199698) was only 75 per cent of that in India and less than 1 per cent of that in USA or France. It also reported that its manufacturing productivity (for 199599) was less than 5 per cent of that in Brazil, France, Japan or the USA. Thus there is much room for improvement in productivity levels. On the other hand, the extent of Chinas employment problem has been well documented (e.g. Hu 2001). There are massive surplus labour supplies in agriculture, still considerable excess employment in many state-owned industrial enterprises and further growth in the labour force of some 80 million likely during the decade to 2010. There is thus an urgent need for new job creation. But during the 1990s nearly 90 per cent of Chinas growth was accounted for by productivity growth, and only about 10 per cent by employment growth, on the official figures. Policy initiatives to accelerate productivity growth, for example by increasing the uptake of modern technologies in agriculture and manufacturing, will accentuate the trend to jobless growth and deepen the employment problem. Hence the dilemma that China currently faces. Increasing productivity in agriculture and industry has long been the driving force of development and increasing living standards, but in current circumstances it risks exacerbating an
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already very serious employment problem. We argue below that this dilemma is being intensified for China by the impact of the knowledge economy.
5.
Structural change in development paths As is widely known, the Industrial Revolution originated in the UK and that country was the first in modern times to build an industrial economy. This process began in the eighteenth century, and was well advanced by 1820. By that year the share of total employment in British agriculture had already fallen to 37.6 per cent, and nearly one-third of all employment was in industry (Table 1.4). As the growth in industry continued to drive the expansion of the economy through the nineteenth and early twentieth century, the share of total employment located in industry reached 45.2 per cent in 1929, immediately prior to the Depression, and by that time the share of agriculture in total employment had fallen to 7.7 per cent. These proportions remained fairly stable through to the 1950s. But after about 1970, as the structure of the world economy began to change, industry began to give way to services in terms of employment by 1999 industry provided only 22.6 per cent, and services 75.3 per cent, of total employment in the UK. This broad pattern, of a strong expansion in industrial employment fed by a transfer from agriculture but sooner or later displaced by surging employment in services, is apparent in one way or another in the development process of all the major advanced economies. Germany followed a similar path to Britain a little later, with the industry share of employment reaching 41 per cent in 1913 and 43 per cent in 1950, before falling to 29 per cent by 1999. The service sector was important much earlier in the USA, but the industry share rose from 15 per cent in 1820 to nearly 30 per cent by 1913, and peaked at about 35 per cent in the early
Table 1.4 Share of employment in industry in total employment, selected countries, 18201999 UK 1820 1870 1913 1929 1950 1970 1985 1999 32.9 42.3 44.1 45.2 44.9 39.5 26.2 22.6 Germany USA Japan Korea (per cent of total employment) n.a. 28.7 41.1 n.a. 43.0 n.a. 37.8 29.4 15.0 24.4 29.7 29.4 33.6 28.5 23.3 19.2 n.a. n.a. 17.5 20.9 22.6 35.3 34.6 32.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.3 34.7 27.4 China n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.2 21.7 23.0
Sources: 18201950: Maddison 1995, pp. 39, 253; 197093 (excluding China): OECD 2002; National Bureau of Statistics 2001.
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1950s. Japans development process began later, and in 1913, 60 per cent of employment was in agriculture and only 17.5 per cent in industry. But the industry share rose rapidly during the first three-quarters of the twentieth century, peaking at about 37 per cent in 1973 before declining gradually to 32.4 per cent in 1998. It is notable, in the light of Japans continuing economic problems since the early 1990s, that the shift to services has been far slower in Japan than in any other major economy. It is interesting to consider the case of Korea in the prime decades of its rapid development, between 1970 and 1990. In these two decades Korea not only grew very rapidly (real GDP growing by 8.1% per annum) but experienced rapid structural change. In 1970, 51.5 per cent of Korean employment was in agriculture and related primary industries (a figure comparable to that of China in 2000), with only 16.3 per cent in industry and 32.1 per cent in services. By 1990 the employment share in agriculture had fallen nearly two-thirds to 18.3 per cent, with more than half of that decline being reflected in rising manufacturing jobs. By 1990, 35 per cent of Korean jobs were in manufacturing, while the services share had risen to 46.7 per cent (OECD 2002). In other words, even as late as the 1980s Korea was following the traditional development path in an accelerated fashion, with a pronounced shift of jobs from agriculture to secondary industry, and also to services. Over a period of only two decades, the share of jobs in manufacturing more than doubled, absorbing more than half of the movement of jobs out of agriculture. But in the 1990s the trend reversed equally sharply, with the manufacturing share falling from 35 per cent in 1990 to 27.4 per cent of all jobs by 1999 (OECD 2002). By that year, 61 per cent of all Korean jobs were in the services sector. Thus a developing country pursuing a development strategy based on industrialisation in the early years of the twenty-first century faces a much more difficult task than did a similar country in 1980. Global manufacturing productivity has doubled, and world markets have become much more open and competitive. Reflecting higher productivity, industrial employment has fallen in absolute terms in most developed countries since 1980 and has fallen as a share of total employment in all these countries. With the rise of global product systems, advanced countries are capturing high-value aspects of the product system, while outsourcing lower value elements on a competitive basis to low cost countries. As illustrated by Korean trends in the 1990s, these factors must inevitably impact on the development process. Changes in Chinas employment structure Chinas recent experience provides a striking illustration of these trends (Table 1.5 and Figure 1.1). Between 1970 and 1996 the change in employment shares by industry in China showed the traditional development pattern. There was a massive movement out of agriculture, and the agricultural share fell from 80.8 per cent to 50.5 per cent. Nearly half of this labour was absorbed in industry, and
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the industry share of total employment increased from 10.2 per cent in 1970 to 23.5 per cent in 1996. The services share increased even more rapidly, rising from 9 per cent to 26 per cent.
Table 1.5 Employment shares by sector, China, 19702000 Agriculture 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 80.8 68.7 62.4 60.1 52.2 50.5 49.9 49.8 50.1 50.0 50.0 Industry Services (per cent) 10.2 18.2 20.8 21.4 23.0 23.5 23.7 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.3 9.0 13.1 16.8 18.5 24.8 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.5 27.7 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: National Bureau of Statistics 2001. Figure 1.1 60 55 50 45 Per cent 40 35 30 25 20 15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Industry 1996 1997 1998 Services 1999 2000 2001 Shares of total employment by sector, China, 19912001
Agriculture
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But again a striking change in the pattern has taken place, this time after 1996. Total industrial employment in China was lower in absolute terms in 2000 than in 1996, in spite of a 42.5 per cent increase in real industrial GDP over this period, and the industrial employment share fell from 23.5 per cent to 22.5 per cent. In other words, all of the output growth in industry over this period was due to higher productivity, rather than to increased employment. Provisional figures for 2001 show an absolute rise in industrial employment, but a further fall in the industrial share of total employment. With agricultural employment basically on a plateau at close to 50 per cent of total employment, the services share rose at the expense of the industrial share. Thus over this period China experienced the employment pattern characteristic of developed countries in recent times a rising service sector share fed by a declining industrial share, with agriculture basically fixed. But this pattern was consistent with half the work force being still engaged in agriculture. It is too early to interpret these changes with any certainty. But, in the light of trends in other countries driven by the factors described above, and of specific features of the Chinese situation, it is possible that the share of industrial employment in total employment has already passed its peak in China. The specifically Chinese features include the very low levels of productivity in manufacturing, by international standards, the excess labour still engaged in many state-owned enterprises, and the entry of China into the WTO. In this context, further falls in the industrial share of total jobs may take place in China, in line with trends in developed countries. But numerous other factors, such as rapid growth in low-value manufacturing jobs as a result of Chinas entry to the WTO and revisions to the system for the industrial classification of employment in China, could still lead to a different outcome. In spite of the necessary qualifications, this analysis suggests rather different patterns of future employment in China than those commonly projected, which typically show a continuation of the traditional development pattern. One example is the projections to 2020 contained in a recent World Bank (2001) report. These projections showed the agricultural share falling from 50 per cent in 2000 to about 24 per cent by 2020, the industrial share rising from 22.5 per cent to about 28 per cent, and the services share rising from 27.5 per cent to about 48 per cent (World Bank 2001, Figure 2.4). In the light of global trends, and of the experience of the 19962001 period, it is likely that the share of industry in total employment will be substantially lower than anticipated in the World Bank projections by 2020 and that, while the services share will undoubtedly increase strongly, the fall in the agricultural share will be much more gradual than in the World Bank figures. Is an enhanced industrialisation strategy viable? The traditional development path is focused on output and productivity growth in industry and agriculture, through the introduction of advanced technologies,
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systems and processes. The growth in industrial output is the main factor driving GDP growth, and the growth of productivity in these two sectors is the key driver of increased living standards. Growing employment in industry, and also in the residual services sector, absorbs labour freed by higher productivity in agriculture as a virtuous cycle of growth is created. There is no tension between increased productivity reduced employment per unit of output and full employment, because of rising employment in industry and services. This outcome is also consistent with mainstream economic theory, in which such a tension cannot exist because the theory assumes that markets adjust over time to maintain full employment. In the case of China, and perhaps of other developing countries, the situation is now different. A serious conflict has arisen between increased productivity and adequate growth in employment, and hence between GDP per head and employment levels. In Chinas case, pursuing increased productivity growth in agriculture and industry risks making an already serious unemployment problem much worse. This problem is illustrated by the scenarios for real GDP, employment and growth shown in Table 1.6. They start from the actual 19952000 paths for the three variables and the three sectors shown in tables 1.11.3. The first row assumes that the sector specific growth rates for productivity and employment from 19952000 continue over the period 200010. Given different implicit weightings for the sectors in the latter period, the aggregate figures are a little different from those for 19952000. This is the base case for the scenarios, which are constructed by varying the productivity paths and/or the overall economic growth rate. The messages that this simple exercise serves to illustrate are clear enough. First (line 2), if past rates of productivity growth are maintained in the face of slower growth (here 7% aggregate GDP growth), there would be no employment growth at all over the decade. Even at recent reduced productivity growth rates,
Table 1.6 GDP, employment and growth scenarios, China, 200010 Annual growth rates, 200010 Real GDP Employment Productivity Continuation of 19952000 productivity growth Sustained economic growth Lower GDP growth Productivity growth enhanced by 20% Strong economic growth Lower GDP growth Productivity growth lower by 20% Sustained economic growth Lower GDP growth Source: Estimates of the authors. 8.6 7.0 10.1 7.0 8.6 6.9 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.8 2.1 0.8 7.5 7.0 9.0 7.9 6.4 6.0
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strong overall growth is needed to generate about 1 per cent growth in employment. Second, if sector productivity growth rates are increased by 20 per cent, then (line 3) growth in real GDP of about 10 per cent per annum is needed to generate about 1 per cent growth in employment. However, if these enhanced sector productivity growth rates are combined with only 7 per cent per annum GDP growth, the employment outcome is disastrous (line 4), with employment falling by 0.8 per cent per annum. Third, if sustained economic growth could be combined with 20 per cent lower sector specific productivity growth rates (line 5), the result is employment growth in excess of 2 per cent. Such a result would contribute greatly to the resolution of Chinas employment problem. Even with lower GDP growth (7% per annum, line 6), a reasonable employment outcome is generated in this case. These scenarios are arithmetic and illustrative only. They take no account of economic linkages, such as the positive relationship between the rate of economic growth and of productivity. But they do illustrate the potential risks to China if further increases in productivity growth were to be achieved, perhaps as a result of effective policies to apply advanced technologies throughout the economy. They also highlight the potential benefits that might accrue were it possible to combine sustained economic growth with lower rates of productivity growth than those in the second half of the 1990s.
6.
How then should we think about a development strategy for China in the knowledge economy? This is a fundamental question, which forces one back to the goal of development, the welfare of the individual and of the communities in which they are part. Here we make five observations as a preliminary response to this question. The service sector as a key focus, not the residual In traditional development strategies, the focus has been on industry, and to a lesser extent on agriculture, while the service sector has been the residual. As a result, agricultural extension programs are well developed in many countries, as are structures and processes to facilitate the growth of industry. While the service sector has been the main generator of jobs in most developed countries for quite a long time, little progress has been made in terms of the creation of systematic policies for the service sector. China comes to a position in which the service sector is a key focus of its strategy at an early stage of its development, with little international experience to guide it. Indeed, many of the key issues remain clouded in debate in the developed countries. These include the most effective roles for the public and private sectors in key service areas such as education and health, the extent to which market-based roll out of new technologies (such as
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broadband) biases applications to those in which private returns can be captured rather than to the most social beneficial applications, and the conditions under which the service sector can generate high-quality jobs. In recognition of the key role of the service sector, the Tenth Five Year Plan sets the target for service industry growth over 200005 at 7.5 per cent per annum, higher than that for overall economic growth. Aggregate employment growth over the period is set at 45 million or 4 per cent per annum, bringing the service sector share of employment up from 27.5 per cent in 2002 to 33 per cent in 2005. To contribute towards the achievement of these formidable targets, the State Council approved in December 2001 the Policy Suggestions for Accelerating the Development of the Service Industries in the Tenth Five Year Plan prepared by the State Development Planning Commission, and urged that they be implemented throughout China. These suggestions about ways of upgrading the structure of the service industries and firms, increasing investment and employment, reducing entry barriers, increasing openness to foreigners and so on are an important first step on a long road that China must travel. Re-thinking employment, output and productivity growth In a society in which the labour force is limited and fully employed, the task of increasing living standards is about increasing productivity. But if a society has a virtually unlimited labour force, much of which is less than fully employed, then both the extent of employment and the productivity of the employed are critical to living standards. This is all the more so when reasonably full employment is itself an important component of community stability and well-being. For both these reasons, China is now in a situation in which the level of employment is at least as central to the living standards of the population as a whole as is the level of productivity. Indeed, for any given level of GDP growth, China is likely to be better off the higher the rate of employment growth and the lower the rate of productivity growth. It is difficult to think clearly about such a situation, partly because so much economic theory and debate implicitly assumes full employment, and decrees that increased productivity is an unambiguous good. This full employment model, and the traditional development path involving labour transfer from agriculture to industry, still dominates thinking about development. Sharply increased productivity is also seen as critical to competitiveness in increasingly open world markets. But, in response to Chinas present circumstances, it is not sufficient to say that the goal should be to maximise output and employment growth, not to maximise productivity growth. Indeed, Chinas experience, both under central planning and in recent times, has shown that the pursuit of output growth without regard to quality, value or competitiveness is unsustainable in a globalised world. The danger is that the resulting output will be neither accepted by domestic consumers nor saleable in international markets.
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Our view is that, in Chinas present circumstances, neither output growth nor productivity growth should be the central goal. Rather, the central objective should be sustainable employment growth. This means growth in employment in firms and other organisations that produce high-quality goods and services meeting the needs of the domestic markets and/or competitive in international markets. Given Chinas comparative advantage in terms of labour costs and the global trend to increased knowledge intensity, this means a focus on knowledgeintensive and labour-intensive products and on technologies that are either resource saving or value enhancing, but which are not labour saving. Product and process innovation Another way of approaching these issues is through the distinction between product and process innovation. Product innovations are those that involve the introduction of new goods and services into a given market, while process innovations involve new ways of producing or distributing goods and services. While new products often get most publicity, process innovations have been of enormous importance in developed countries, and provide the main reason for the rapid and continuing growth in industrial productivity documented above. In an important study, Edquist, Hommen and McKelvey (2002) have argued that product innovations are generally employment creating, while process innovations are generally job destroying. In this analysis, process innovations contribute to increased living standards by reducing the labour required for a given level of output, allowing the surplus labour to be employed in other firms. They justify this conclusion by a diverse range of empirical studies, all relating to the developed countries. In Chinas situation, the distinction between product and process innovations seems to be important, on three counts. First, product innovations, including the introduction of new products to a firms portfolio or to a given market as well as the creation of entirely new products, appear to offer both output and employment growth. Second, process innovations of one traditional type cost reducing through labour saving are likely on this analysis to contribute to Chinas employment problem. But in a situation of surplus, low-cost labour, process innovations aimed at cost reduction need not necessarily be labour saving. In this situation, labour-intensive technologies and processes may offer a more costeffective solution than labour saving capital-intensive technologies. But, third, many new process technologies are about more than cost reductions, delivering products of higher quality and functionality than existing technologies. While China may have abundant labour, it certainly needs technologies to enhance the quality and functionality of its products. There is no doubt that innovation the application of knowledge and new ideas to production, marketing and distribution will be central to Chinas development. And the nature of that innovation will be critical. It must relate to the
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specific circumstances facing China, including the depth of Chinas employment problem. This probably means an increased orientation to product innovation both the introduction of products new to China and the creation within China of globally new products and to process innovation based on the efficient use of low cost labour to improve the quality and value of output rather than on the minimisation of high cost labour. But the application within China of capital intensive, labour saving process technologies is likely to be of doubtful benefit. Higher output and incomes in agriculture Most countries have, as they have developed, seen the agriculture sector decline sharply as a source of both value added and employment. In China this sector, broadly defined, still accounts for 50 per cent of employment and for about 70 per cent of the population, and its employment share is likely to decline only gradually in the foreseeable future. Thus agriculture will be critical to economic development and social welfare in China for a long time to come. However, average rural incomes are only about one-third of average urban incomes, the competitive position of much of Chinas agriculture has been declining for some time, and it is widely held that agriculture will be one of the areas of adverse impact from Chinas accession to the WTO (Zhong 2002). For example, the growth of export-oriented manufacturing, and the high exchange rate that it has made possible, has made farmers more vulnerable to competition in open markets. New measures to generate higher output and incomes in the rural sector will need, therefore, to be an important part of a revised development strategy. The widespread distribution of new technologies aimed at increasing yields and other forms of output, but not at displacing labour, will continue to be central here. More generally, the redirection of funds from the industrial sector, and from the new urban elites, might be necessary to reduce costs and to increase incomes in rural areas. For example, Zhong (2002) argues that the total burden on farmers of agricultural tax and a variety of fees and levies amounts to 710 per cent of their net annual income, even though their incomes are far below the minimum level for individual income tax. Most of these funds are used to finance rural education and other fiscal expenditure at the township and village level. He argues that substantial relief from these taxes and levies, through national and provincial funding of rural education and other local expenditure, would substantially reduce production costs and improve farmers incomes. Such an approach might also be expected to increase the quality of education in rural areas, thereby improving prospects for non-agricultural employment in these areas. The welfare of the community Our final point is that it is critical, with all the emphasis on market-based development, to keep in mind the goal of economic development: the welfare of the individual and of the communities in which they are part. As the experience of
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many developed countries demonstrates, this welfare is not to be equated to high levels of GDP per head many factors other than aggregate economic performance affect individual and community welfare. High levels of human development for a given level of per capita GDP have been a feature of Chinas development path to date. Table 1.7 illustrates this point in terms of a number of human development indicators, both for China and for all countries classified into three groups by GDP per capita. It shows that, in spite of still being a low-income country, in 1994 China had lower illiteracy and infant mortality rates, and higher schooling and life expectancy levels, than the medium income countries as a whole. For example, the illiteracy rate for China as a whole was 13.3 per cent, whereas the average for the medium income countries was 17 per cent; the infant mortality rate for China was 30.6 per cent and that for the medium income countries 39 per cent. Indeed, performance levels in the best Chinese province were comparable with those in some high-income countries. There are some warning signs, however, in this otherwise proud record. These lie in the fact that the differences in average outcomes between the best and worst provinces in China are stark, equal on these measure to the difference between low-income countries and the lesser performing high-income countries. There are also signs of increased divergence within some provinces (Wang and Hu 1999), as there are of a more general increase in inequality within China. Opportunities to access, create and apply knowledge are unequally distributed across human societies, so that there seems to be a tendency to greater inequality inherent in the global knowledge economy. An adequate development strategy for the knowledge economy must address this fact, in particular by ensuring that the distribution of basic human services such as education and health is as equitable as possible. Properly used, the new information and communications technologies could assist in delivering this outcome, allowing China to continue its proud record in this regard.
Table 1.7 Selected human development indicators: China and the world China World Worst Best Low Medium High province province income income income economies economies economies 13.3 40.0 2.2 59.1 94.6 70.1 6.4 8.7 75.2 8.7 27 49 1.6 56 89 60 17 5.3 68 39 78 <5 11.1 77 7
Average
Urbanisation (%) Illiteracy rates (%) Mean schooling (yrs) Life expectancy (yrs) Infant mortality (per 000 live births)
Sources: Wang Shaoguang and Hu Angang 1999, based on World Bank, World Development Report 1995 and other sources. China data are for 1994; other data are for 1993.
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7.
Conclusion
In our view, the knowledge economy is neither a feature of advanced economies, irrelevant to China, nor the most recent enhancement of the industrial economy. Rather, it is a quite new stage of the evolution of the global economy, with fundamental and pervasive implications for every nation, region and firm, and inevitably with important social implications also. As such, the knowledge economy poses critical questions for Chinas development strategy, especially as the nation prepares to enter more fully into the global trading system through accession to the WTO. Minor adaptations to the development strategies of the industrial era, whether as employed by the now developed countries or by the newly industrialised nations of East Asia, will not suffice. China must shape its own distinctive development strategy for the challenges ahead, one that takes full account of Chinas distinctive characteristics and of the emerging realities of the knowledge economy. Most technological development in recent centuries has taken place, and continues to take place, in the developed countries, and hence is shaped to meet the needs of those countries. In shaping such a revised strategy, and in creating the new technologies to meet the specific needs of a developing country, China has some real advantages. In particular, it is in the unique position of being both a developing country and the second largest economy in the world. Thus, if it is successful in creating strategies and technologies to meet its own specific needs, China may also chart a new path for other developing countries in responding to the global knowledge economy. Some suggestions about the nature of that revised strategy have been made above, and many more are to be found in the chapters that follow. But defining and then outlining the implementation of that strategy is a major undertaking, one far beyond the scope of such a volume. Our hope is that the studies collected in this book will make a useful contribution to this historic task.
8.
References
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