Uit-1C

Notation
1) Probabii ty -

Phobabit notahon s ofiuent wcu o witi

tue pobabtaty 6 evees hoppewine to1 not hapenif

TD we Qot noteuton s i t h Js wud for venn oliapram.

PCA) Bet A vent A happety

PCAD tomlemont- the oh.abiuty 8 ereu- A
hot hoPpeu
*PAUB) union - tRe prokibi lit e6 event A e

haprenif.
*PAnB) Treenehon- t e pvosabi uty
A tod B happeni

e. chonuws for aun e e n t

PCA) =
totol no e. Chon

Probabiiy Enanpte:-
Head Tail
PCA) n CA
ntS)
nA)=
S-,T A
Erent ef getltip heoo
nS) 2

P(A)-
 Dia
1,2,3, 4, St} n (9) = b

A-Evet kor ebtivp an een humube

A-{2, b)
CA)e 3
PCA) 2 %
Conditional probahiiy
Two eency A> B
obabyof event ,a
avniup not
+ eet A \a
allleolby
appeol P (A) PAnB) A)1
PA
Eawpe:-
Dic

S={1,2,3,4, S,Ly
rosoh Lub or sotlup en
AM khen 4.
no.
shiun

Eren ho 4
A-Rs ttan 4 = {,,3}
=

B/A) Y
ThdepRncleut eneti:
A -
Idope nols ud ereuts
PCAnB) PCA) P(B)
=

bA) PC) p(B)

PA)
P(D/A)= P(B
2) TrueMuL-
Jnto a
docdapoivds
T R pottl oß vunnurp
uulale a outpu
model to Col
mawine Seakni
numeiCal Store w rotus o u o
mun a Mnle
Aeteted to ou mathieleatuip Mod e.
thou two types
Induutive
Dedwutive

3) Tdepevolewue
g t meQ ns ravddom number tod veuRi able
+hot s not afeted by o ttuet vaRiable.

*types Coolitional independene

* Untonliional Tnolependenu

ABoyejmle-
Boyes mule ovicles w with a
uay to upolate
OuuR beti efs baned Dn am va o he, rel evant pro s %
eviden Le.
Fomuula:- uketiuoDd
, PiY
PlA/B) PBA) PA)
PL8
Peterior Masgíal
)Pouter ioY pro bahiluy: vpdouked probahbiuy oter
the
ewiden toniduco
2) Phox probabi
lty: the bYobahiu y helr te
enidenu s (owidennd.
3) ikuu hood: PYo bahi i y o the evi
doute, 9qiven
ven tae
ta
tru
A) Maljinal probahiuty: Probabi üt o f a evideuu
nole awy CiruMtanu.
5 Bayes Theorem!

SMopAs
Dayes teorem
Fornula
Proe 4ee Enplanation
kEnarup&.
Payeteorem
*Payès 4ho.ven prop oea byThonmas Doyes
Jn IS Cenw ,

event boLoon
mor lcnbtoledre et conolihons.

Lketihood

PCA/B) =P(BA) PCA)oo

PCB)
hypottueM Masginal

Poe
et ns takL 2 eveus- AM
PA/B) -) Conolutio nal pvo babè tity
PCA/B)-PCAnB) PCB/A)- PCBn4)
P(B)
PCA)
PCA/B P C) A nB) O
PCB/A). P(A)= P(BnA) D
 trom O
pCA/B). PCB)- P( B/A). PCA)
S e
PCA/B)= P(B/A).PlA)
P(
Teim eNHANotm
A potees Ae
B iveen data
se
PLA/B) firettnp probabellty hypo theu
Probaht i traininp eanples ove tven

FB/A) Pind prob. e. 9iven dotea povidtd

Prob. e upoteis eot true
PA)Pob 0. fotueis be)ore obeeviny iven dlea
qiven daka.
PCB) Prob e

Eamk- fa J, K,
PCkiny/tau) = Plfau einp) PCinp)

P(fae)
=Ix

12 -s
2ayeuian Leaauirp: Manimum tel hOO
keont Bquoreo exlor ypottQLLs
e (vobaoi uy
Boues ttheovem loluulok
e a t poti ble ypo theui H o e m o pYrokade

Maurmum Jiluuihood heart pualod egOV

wyrotwis:-
TO fis ta maumum iketi vood ypotheis
bay eioun Aol nAnp
lp)a
(o) h -
Y max p(h/D)
Map
heH

CANT
Aot s Adke rouuin JnstomM ( , M2 Kn) k
Cowidu toasget vouluus D- (dn,
d1 owm)
w e wmle
PDhu) os proclu e
p.(oli/w
wap = NGman
p(oli/u)
ey ovwmwp noYmal odishnbuti o
e (-H)2 -pro olut
20-2
map Cuma
e 22AI-)2
heH
2T
Orma VM

h e
Edi-h(x})
we o Junuti on
a s mon Jog 2g2 (di-n (x;))
heH V2ta

di- h())
2
 M
a r Mn oli -n (xf))
heH

=rain dt- h (ni))

m
hmap bY ML aYSin d i -di- h(ni))
heU

T t a eay- Auord eLS hYpo t

ELaple t-

The tet yokwms a Coreut pecitie cult un ml 28

Hhe Canes in voith t dllear s atnally
Procen > anel a loreut nopatine e R t D my A
O +he Cones u h 4o oie a t is not preeut?

u t u huoe, O08 e Oute opulobn hoe Cante.

uyesaoem PCh/D)= P(D/u). P(h)|

PlD)
PCCameet) o0& tCoLe)
=

*9712
PC+lcanu)- . 98 PC coun uel) =02
P+/notCanet) -.O3 PC-t noECon w)=
9
Plecnes/+)= P+/Can et) P
Canut
PCD)
=O8 xo.ooe O018
PCb) OoO8
PCD)
= O 2

PlComu /+)- P+| O.299)

D Conuu)
PtD)
pCnetCanuu
=O x 049 2
6.290
PCD) Po
292

(o O698+

AmL w not amuer

Maximum iketihood Hypo-teeur or ect
Paobabilhes
Conider tLOth use w to
tee ettiue
e c n a honeletevnuinutc ahebi Listýc)unth,

+ o.1y, stun has too d& ate P va0

skece
Ke oat a fun tíon approxinnator
Output is 4 proeabi ty d o ) =)
o f t wordy lecctn tte taRpot funth
[ o ) Suh that f (a) = Pf(t) =1)
How Com we luaun p u a weuaal niitwo le ?

brde fome nay wold be t tw

eLcetmoe epunies o 1's o's for
CoRCaut Fo
Caun pemble ral 8 o ttuon, sa t
housalwtwoe bo eutpuut thL teipe enu
4ideaion molel Ne opti ze n 9Rdel to s nd

kai hood r o A TFin thb M

i t otaun an enpreMm ° r P9(n)

eom
tdi)
**
Xm dm) Lshe oli i t
lhtenne O Coy Va orf (i)

o t X di anolom rasiabes,k
rouininp enampe s doc
OMAWMup hou ealh
os
Can omte PlD/u)
n9e
Sdopondekuj,
PCD/h)= P 7}, oli/k) 0
 r produut w
Apuuy
b/h) - PlAi/A X,) p lxi)

&e psab ity P (Ai/h, ni ))

pCd) h oi) hCa if di-

(t- (ai )) fe di=o

Re e p e s At n a more Mateonocti cally

aupuloble o m as

PColi (h i)=h ( ( h nj) ) O

ERuaton G) toAuubhte Jor P Cdil u aj ) in
epuat om ( ) to otato

PCD/) =

h)dt (t-u)) -lo:

P(Mi)) ->
we wmte an enp-euion lor t Manim
mun
ilelihood wyro thes

huL =
a max
AhC)dt (t-u i)plx
heH

8
Boos epti mal Loui hes?
Snopdu :
ef
*Baes opthmal ouci be,

Fomula

Enompl
 ouyes Optimal amfie
as
TR Baye opbmal ttoihe
obchiAh mpellhad nAakkoa mect pYobakle
reicho or a noo eople.
manirom
A petett or wmou

Aprdeobiute aneoore epeuolto u

MAP 460
rd +C neprobole upotUs
rora raininp dataeet

T
wot probable dami hcahin eftta
NOL Wtan obtuneel b Conbiwin t
reli cho ef oLl hpo thenls
hoir hMertor obalitities.
weifhdeol

Fo ua

e e oph mal Aoni heatton

Ptvs/D) =
2 P(y/) /D)
arrnoa
P(Vj/hi)plhi/D
Vev hiet
T e epn
eplaias tous o toluulate
Cevoletional vokahili ty or a nowiwteunu lvý)
kom Aome At v. ven t e
Toaiiw bato (D)
en

Te optimal l i e o hws

PC/D) manim vm.

Exauple
e Hq pottekpaue 4= {hU h2 h3l
tenioY PhtD)
Pexteio =
o.y P (ho/n)=o.3
plha/D)= 0-3
hO4 h2O 3 hse O3

wa wpottes
SLppou a hO AVMtanu
T
T h e probaity hat x pou tive is oy
Th
h h
prooabiit that it u nopotine is o
D3 to3)h2= O 3) h3 o 3) Sne=

Henu, nuot poaLle Loi hLa) on

As napotive.

T e Let of peu ble louni h'cahon o6 t

veo
PhrlD) =
O.u, P(efhr)=o,P 0/t) =1
pCh/D) O:3, Ple/hm) =1,PC elha)= o
PCh3/b) - 0:3, P(o/h3)=1 p(0/h3)so
halore
(e/hi) p (hi/b) P(® (hu) P(ht fb) +Ple/h2 ) plh2/b)
=

nie
+Pleh3) p(hB/0)
1* o.4)+ (of o.3)
A

+ (oo. 2)

ha
hjEH Po/ui) p(ki/b) = Ple/A) PCA1/n) tple/k) Ph-/
+P(e/h3) pl h2/ID?
9 o o 4)+ (1*o.3) + Ao.3)
m . a L MUnM 6

Heuu PCyh)PCAi/D) = wepative

armox
hiEH
Naive. Poyes cahes ?

Naive Layes clouwihe

Fonmuula
Typ e Naine ay louhe
Advautepas
initaios
amp
Ocue ayej ciamife
O a i e ayes axuwmes Conoli tional
Undepenolenn bvor t r a i p dotauct
o claafe epes otes oloda int dijeut

oMs aubrdunp o A ay e tOoem

Puct cRumes +0at elotionthip b/

auu inpu eocw o a clod volepenoleM
Hewue, +hs MDolel Calle.ol OOUve (

Forwula:-
t ormila oile anump nolepend e n

es P(A|, .dn)= "d Mn|4) bCA)

theoe m
P(1.. Mn)
Oouve
P A J. Mn )= P(Mi A) P(12/A). pOAiJAJPCA)
TYpes es Natve ayes tauulAe:
P
einoulli Naie Pyes
ultnovial Naive Bayey
GaKcun Ocuive Baues
 oauve ayes: -

i) Retwalli
eoictord OL ooean rogialle
* Topite for ois(gete -teatuy
Tf Mwino aU euve Payes :-

* dvepuany o prOuunt words 0 featws

*CDmouly we tor docunme lauel fation

Poolaww
tuy Gauuplan auve Paues
DAed wan dcle s as re de auuia
dutobuti Dn w
reolictos c Lntinow raicoB e3
Adveages
kEay t wole i t olon wup binaty Loy
Cokepor cal input Valuas.
Hnd les bo Cowtinow aliscuue dotn
F a t k Yelicble -fsr hmatiup realtime
Preditions.
Liwatabows-
*Ammd - a t all e feaknus oe Inolepenolent
9 i i ihly n ilceley in prosbca Scouaelo.

Uwuitabe for Leeical clata

Conputeltionaly enpentie nwhem wmed

clonm a tae o9e Tfeml
awple : play tenis
PlayTewnds taininy tnanupls
Outlaok Tewpeintuu Hw odi ty wwd play leid

Sunw Hot weak NO

2
ttoE No
3 Strou
Cellart Hot weal Yes
A Rain
Wea Yes
Ran Cco Nomnal Wealc Yes
Roun Coo Nonal
Ovelcast
o No
Cool
Nowa
Sunny ild
Strong yes
Jealc
SUww tocul Novmal
No
to wealc
RoLin Mid Yes
11 Nono
weak
3onn Mitd Novnal
yes
2 Ovettat
Yes
Ovecaut tHot Strov YeA
Norel
Ratn isit yes
Strons No

LectniY phall -

Outlook Play-es ploy- N Teperahwe Play= Yes

Sunny play- No
Ho
Onencon 4/5 O/s ild
2/s
4/ 2/s
Rain s Cot
 Phy Yes lau- No
tumidi y Pla ye
Play No Wwd

2/9 4/s Stronf 3/4 s

Notmal / weale 6/4

Ptplo yes) - / y Ppoy =No) S71y

Text fanale
Giena new Initcme, prediE 74 Aabel

X= Cout Jeok Sonny, tenbeRatRe = 00, ttumidu

HiA whol Strov)
eamiup plhouA
Loot up tables aunieved tn t e
P(outlook Suny (play-Ye, l =%,P(outLoole =Sunng
play No) = 3/s

PCTepexatwul =cool/ pto= Ye3)- 3/9,P CTempetatuu =Coo/

Play No) = Vs

PCHumiwi) Hiph IpAo- Yes) 3/4,

=

P(HuiutyHh
playNO ) Y/s
PlwndStronplpo Yes)=7,PCwlnd Strnpl ptauye NO)=3/s
PCpto yes )= 1 /1 tgP(ptay- No)e S7
Deisi on aleuip wth t Mapwle
PHi9ye)
Plye/x)-P(Sunnyl yes) P(toel /ye)n P(Stron yea))
P pMoy= Y2)
J8S o oos3
PNO R P(unny| No) p(toel Ivo) B4i/%lro) p(JtroY]
PCplay N9
89 0.0206
Civon te Jart
x to be
Ye/x")<p(No/x'),
No
we abel
 9 Bareiam Beiep newolc BRN)
Stnopis
*Bayexi con Retie ntodt&BA)
TwO importat onu-pt mup BEN
oeuteel ouytic Graph LPAG)
y Covditiol prdsasiihy taHe t
epD
*Eaple
eno Belieg Netwek (BEN):-
A L &
pobabiusti Groptcol Hools
a

hatepretes tonAthbnol dopenolenuues bo roundom

votiaHes -u A
obCfeol Ay ie Craph (OAC)
e4t aluo Autaba d
elatio w tiRa emeus
opreeutup pvokshir
a bru
&t 9OYla
on
supetvtsd oinp
o
depordlemu Srolhend n
9o Juportant (owLepts wup
seN:
eDveteol ay Ui Grreuph
s tDAU)
Covlitibnal Drcoahiut Tobl
Direte auy u Gapt CCPD e

(DAG)
eA cdA bwole s AQURal netwoxl
deep oouwinp t o
Xayes Oraned aa
A
A DA hetwolu am
La a
OAdhleetwtt owin Aauyed hae mort Cov
nplur
uthoa Joues bwtpuuts to mutipe loyesm
weus
Ratn
DoRLok/Roio
Dos baa
tottiol/Doskank
Cectnides
(pwdibiowal pvobahiuty Table CPD:
J t ds -fe probasiu ty ef Dne event 9ivon
ouRlenle Oo-ter enent, 0ten d exui led
+
m tetwk of events A Dn two dependent
adomn valiables,

(B-TR=T) /48= O.!9

R R
(BTR=¬)=) 14g = o.39
18/4
(B F 24s o.ob
R-T) =

B 8 1 (B-F R=F) L9/4 D.37

nampl

ugta Eathquak

Aou

,cauls Cas
o

Rien pobabi u fie o

P( T) = 0.oo

PCL =O199
PCE-T = 0.o02

P e F )e 0.79e
 Propsaiu ty eß tlatm
Buuglas (B) Ecuta uake (E) P(A=T) PCA=F)
T O.75 O.o

T te O O)
O.99

T O.2 .T
A
o.99
Probablthi of P
Atoum tA) PCPhET)
PCF)
O.So O.lo
O.Os
.&

Pud t pvopabi lt Te

A T
ot P s T P2 A T
B F E
tie) P sFP-e
(PP2A~ B, E)
CPA) P(P/A) P(A
O.0 /B, E). (~B). Pt
B
O.00062

enolonl in Phtoutnotes