Ujjivan SFB Analyst Day 9jun23
Ujjivan SFB Analyst Day 9jun23
Ujjivan SFB Analyst Day 9jun23
Ujjivan SFB at its Investor & Analyst Meet emphasized on its strategy towards building a mass Sameer Bhise
[email protected] | Tel: (91 22) 66303489
market bank through a) continued focus on underserved customer segments (7.7m
Akshay Jain
customers), b) creating a stable liability franchise with focus on retail deposits c) increasing [email protected] | Tel: (91 22) 66303099
share of secured loans in the portfolio to ~40% and d) further strengthening collection Apurva Deshmukh
efficiency mechanisms to ensure strong asset quality. Incrementally, affordable housing is [email protected] | Tel: (91 22) 66303263
likely to drive the scale of secured loans and the mgmt. intends to scale up the portfolio to
~INR90bn (and additional INR10bn of micro-LAP portfolio) from current levels of INR 34bn.
Recommendation and Price Target
Mgmt is aspiring for an overall asset base growth of >25% in FY24 (with secured book likely
Current Reco. BUY
to cross 30%). With respect to liabilities, Ujjivan SFB is targetting a 35% CASA mix with a Previous Reco. BUY
70% share of retail deposits (along with a 80% CD-ratio) while growing deposits at 30%+ Current Price Target (12M) 38
CAGR over the next 3 years. This is likely to be led by continued multichannel approach, Upside/(Downside) 3.8%
Previous Price Target 38
focus on wide range of customer segments and strengthened analytics. Ujjivan SFB also
Change 0.0%
remains confident on its credit underwriting and collection efficiencies to build a high quality
book with targeted credit costs of <150bps on a steady state basis (and <100bps for FY24). Key Data – UJJIVAN SFBS IN
Overall, mgmt. aspires to deliver 20%+ RoEs FY24 onwards on a steady state basis. We Current Market Price INR37
believe Ujjivan SFB is a key beneficiary of the upswing in the microfinance sector. Incremental Market cap (bn) INR71.5/US$0.9
Free Float 26%
rerating will be contingent on consistent growth and profitability delivery across product
Shares in issue (mn) 1,728.3
segments along with continued improvement in the liabilities franchise. Current valuations at Diluted share (mn)
1.1 FY25e P/BV and 4.7 FY25e P/E are inexpensive given return ratios of 3.2%/26.4% 3-mon avg daily val (mn) INR394.8/US$4.8
RoA/RoE in FY25E. Maintain BUY. 52-week range 38/14
Sensex/Nifty 62,849/18,635
Targeting a stable and sustainable liability franchise: Ujjivan SFB has exhibited a stellar INR/US$ 82.6
deposit growth of 40% YoY in FY23 this is aided by various initiatives like multi-channel
approach, tailor made products for customers, focus on customer service, cross selling Price Performance
and up selling products. It has a granular deposit base with 53% contribution from retail % 1M 6M 12M
Absolute 27.5 15.3 123.9
individuals, 22% from banks, 14% from corporate and others being 8%. It remains well Relative* 25.3 14.1 97.0
poised to fund its growing asset book with a bucket of various products and expansion in * To the BSE Sensex
customer segment supported by other sources of funding. With respect to liabilities,
Ujjivan SFB is targeting a 35% CASA mix with a 70% share of retail deposits (along with
a 80% CD-ratio) while growing deposits at 30%+ CAGR over the next 3 years.
MFI industry poised for growth: MFI industry is poised for growth post multiple crisis
faced by the industry with evolving dynamics bringing in disciplined financing which
involves risk based pricing, better risk management, upgraded credit assement and new
RBI regulations on MFI’s. Ujjivan SFB is expected to out pass the industry growth with it
expected to grow between 20-25% in medium term as against the industry which is
expected to grow between 18%-20%. This will be achieved on the back of focussed
customer segment being aspirational middle class, need based product offerings, growing
opportunity in MFI space, learnings from past crisis, independent credit team and 100%
digital underwriting.
Aiming to increase secure lending via affordable housing route: Ujjivan SFB is looking to
scale up affordable housing book with change in its strategy. They aim to focus on
customer segment with average ticket size of 10 to 15lakhs located in tier 2-3 cities
offering risk based pricing with state specific policies, customised products to suit local
needs and largely digital processing. It has also introduced housing 2.0 which upgrades its
sourcing channel to multi channel approach along with separate process for credit
underwriting for semi formal and formal segments, multi-product engagement, employee
linked incentives, hub based distribution model that helps in better TAT and increased
productivity. Affordable housing is likely to drive the scale of secured loans and the
mgmt. intends to scale up the portfolio to ~INR90bn (and additional INR10bn of micro-
LAP portfolio) from current levels of INR 34bn. Micro-LAP product aims to bridge the gap
by catering to ticket size of INR 2-10 lakh. Mgmt is aspiring for an overall asset base
growth of >25% in FY24 (with secured book likely to cross 30%).
Asset quality – sharp improvement, sustainability key: Ujjivan SFB is looking to deliver a
steady performance on asset quality and collection efficiency after a comeback
witnessned post covid with GNPA at 11.8% in Sep21 to 2.6% in Mar23. Mgmt. stated
that this was made possible on the back of stringent credit underwriting policies and
efforts by the collection team. Ujjivan maintains PCR of 98% with floating provision of
INR 2.5bn as of Mar23 that can be utilised for extraordinary circumstances. The SFB has
been able to maintain a collection efficiency of 99%+ for over a year with restructured
portfolio forming less than 1% of total GLP.Mgmt. expects credit cost to be below
150bps on a steady state basis aided by good porfolio quality, continious portfolio
monitoring and strengthening of internal processes and policies.
Aspiring for sustainable and strong return metrics: The mgmt. highlighted that they are
looking at balanced growth across verticals with rising secured mix and strong asset
quality. They expect to reduce their cost of funds by investing in CA franchise and
maintain opex by investing in various digital intiatives which in turn improves productivity
and expects a ROE of 20%+ over FY24-26.
Valuation and view: We believe Ujjivan SFB is a key beneficiary of the upswing in the
microfinance sector. Incremental rerating will be contingent on consistent growth and
profitability delivery across product segments along with continued improvement in the
liabilities franchise. Current valuations at 1.1 FY25e P/BV and 4.7 FY25e P/E are
inexpensive given return ratios of 3.2%/26.4% RoA/RoE in FY25E. Maintain BUY.
5-Oct-20 Buy 45
APPENDIX I
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Definition of ratings
Rating Meaning
Buy Total expected returns of more than 10% stocks with market capitalisation in excess of INR 200 billion and REITs* and more than 15%
for all other stocks, over the next twelve months. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 10% upside from the current market price for stocks with market
capitalisation in excess of INR 200 billion and REITs* and in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price
for all other stocks, over the next twelve months.
Sell Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% from the current market price over the next twelve months.
* REIT refers to Real Estate Investment Trusts.
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