Moderate Muslims and Democratic Breakdown in Indonesia: Asian Studies Review
Moderate Muslims and Democratic Breakdown in Indonesia: Asian Studies Review
Moderate Muslims and Democratic Breakdown in Indonesia: Asian Studies Review
Jeremy Menchik
To cite this article: Jeremy Menchik (2019): Moderate Muslims and Democratic Breakdown in
Indonesia, Asian Studies Review, DOI: 10.1080/10357823.2019.1627286
ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
For much of the 2000s, scholars and activists lauded Indonesia’s Democracy;
surprisingly successful transition to democracy. Recent years, how- authoritarianism; Indonesia;
ever, have made imperfections visible to the point where the Islam; moderates
breakdown of Indonesian democracy is imaginable if not yet
under way. This article investigates the conditions under which
moderate Islamic organisations support non-democratic values
and actors, and by doing so contribute to Indonesia’s democratic
decline. Drawing on original survey data and interviews, as well as
case studies in which the preferences of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and
Muhammadiyah leaders have become visible, this article argues
that these organisations’ values are compatible with both democ-
racy and authoritarianism. While NU and Muhammadiyah exem-
plify the civic associational ties and democratic culture that are
necessary for making democracy work, civic pluralism is not their
only value. NU and Muhammadiyah have a hierarchy of values that
they promote and defend, and are willing to forgo civic pluralism
in order to combat blasphemy against Islam, ensure Muslim con-
trol over overwhelmingly Muslim regions, and limit political
expression concerning heterodox approaches to Islam or non-
Muslim involvement in matters of aqidah (faith). NU and
Muhammadiyah also operate within the country’s political patron-
age system, and their material interests can lead them away from
supporting democratic values.
Introduction
In the twenty years since Indonesia’s democratic transition and consolidation, scholars
have pointed to mass Islamic organisations as a crucial reason for the country’s relative
success. While other Muslim-majority democracies – including Egypt, Turkey, Senegal,
Pakistan and Nigeria – have backslid into authoritarianism, Indonesia has remained
a largely successful democracy, according to indicators from Polity as well as most
scholars (Liddle & Mujani, 2013; Künkler & Stepan, 2013). In comparison to its region,
too, Indonesia is a surprising success: Thailand and the Philippines have reverted to
authoritarianism, while durable authoritarianism reigns in Singapore, Vietnam,
Cambodia and Burma (Slater, 2010). Although facing major challenges with regard to
corruption, rule of law, sectarianism and economic inequality, Indonesia continues to
hold successful elections with alternations of power, and state policies are largely crafted
and implemented by broadly accountable elected representatives (Aspinall, 2015).
Central to Indonesia’s democratic transition and relative success have been the giants
of Indonesian Islamic civil society: Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah. These
organisations run tens of thousands of schools, hundreds of universities, hospitals and
health clinics, and women’s wings, youth wings and other civil society organisations
that build strong associational ties (Bush, 2009; Hicks, 2012). Dedicated to promoting
Islam and improving the social welfare of society, these civil ties are what many scholars
point to as the reason why NU and Muhammadiyah have helped make Indonesian
“democracy work” (Hefner, 2000; Künkler & Stepan, 2013; Lussier, 2016; Lussier &
Fish, 2012; Putnam, Leonardi, & Nanetti, 1993).
Yet, in recent years, imperfections in Indonesian democracy have become visible to
the point where the breakdown of democracy is imaginable, if not yet under way
(Warburton & Aspinall, 2017). While scholars have devoted considerable attention to
the role of moderate Muslims in supporting democracy, and the role of Islamic
extremists and autocrats in undermining it, less attention has been paid to the role
that moderates such as NU and Muhammadiyah have themselves played in under-
mining democracy (Schäfer, 2017). This gap deserves attention if scholars are to
understand the role of Islam in democracy. Normatively, too, this gap merits attention
in order to combat the backsliding of the country into authoritarianism. As a result, this
article investigates the following questions: which of NU and Muhammadiyah’s values
support democracy, and which values support authoritarianism? Under what political
conditions do these organisations support democrats, and under what conditions do
they support autocrats and Islamists?
Drawing on original survey data and interviews, as well as case studies that reveal the
preferences of NU and Muhammadiyah leaders, this article argues that their values are
compatible with both democracy and authoritarianism. This argument builds on Robert
Hefner’s canonical book, Civil Islam (2000), which presciently unearthed a pluralist
movement among Islamic intellectuals. This movement celebrated mutual respect,
individual autonomy and volunteerism, thereby providing the social infrastructure for
Indonesia’s democratic culture.
Yet, while NU and Muhammadiyah exemplify the civic associational ties and demo-
cratic culture that are necessary for making democracy work, civic pluralism is not their
only value. NU and Muhammadiyah have a hierarchy of values that they promote and
defend, and they are willing to forgo civic pluralism in order to oppose blasphemy
against Islam, ensure Muslim control over overwhelmingly Muslim regions, limit
political expression concerning heterodox approaches to Islam or non-Muslim involve-
ment in matters of aqidah (faith), and gain patronage. While NU and Muhammadiyah
are interested in the maintenance of an open democratic political system, they have
other priorities too, which means that under certain circumstances they do not defend
democratic institutions or values. Such a hierarchy of values is not exceptional; it is the
norm among political actors and a reoccurring component of democratic breakdown
(Linz, 1978, p. 4).
In that respect, NU and Muhammadiyah are “contingent democrats”, a term that Eva
Bellin (2000) coined to describe how capital and labour’s enthusiasm for democracy varies
with their dependence on the state and their position vis-à-vis the aristocracy. Where
capital and labour are independent from the state and socially ambivalent about the ruling
class, they support democratisation. Where capital and labour are dependent on the state
ASIAN STUDIES REVIEW 3
and tied to the ruling class, they oppose democratisation. Likewise, when NU and
Muhammadiyah see the material and ideological interests of the Muslim community as
being served by democracy, they support it. But when their material and ideological
interests are better served by aligning with Islamists and autocrats, they do so.
The remainder of the article elaborates these points. The next section delves into the
scholarship on Indonesia in order to pinpoint the place of Islamic civil society in the
country’s democratic transition and consolidation. The following section makes the argu-
ment for NU and Muhammadiyah as “contingent democrats” who support Islamists and
autocrats under specified conditions. This is followed by three case studies over the past ten
years that have helped to reveal NU and Muhammadiyah’s diverse preferences, as well as
original interviews and survey data from NU and Muhammadiyah leaders. The case studies
demonstrate the contingency of NU and Muhammadiyah’s commitment to rule of law,
minority rights and government policies that reflect public preferences. The concluding
section elucidates the implications of that contingency for democratic decline and break-
down in Indonesia.
Hefner argued that these civic values helped provide the political culture necessary for
democratic political institutions to thrive in Indonesia as well as the broader Muslim
world. Hefner’s argument was grounded in normative arguments made by NU leader
Abdurrahman Wahid and Muslim activist Nurcholish Madjid, as well as in the demo-
cratic sensibilities of Muhammadiyah leaders Syafi’i Anwar and Ahmad Syafi’i Maarif.
Hefner’s argument is sometimes presented as saying that Indonesian Muslims are
essentially pluralist or that radical movements are absent in Indonesia. This is
a misreading of the book. Chapters 5 and 6 focus on radical organisations such as
Dewan Dakwah Islamiyah Indonesia (DDII; Indonesian Islamic Dakwah Council) and
anti-pluralist actors, including Mohammad Natsir, Anwar Harjono, Ahmad Sumargono
and Lukman Harun. Likewise, Civil Islam does not contend that NU and
Muhammadiyah are coterminous with civil Islam: the preface and Chapter 3 focus on
anti-pluralist behaviour in NU’s past, such as its involvement in the mass killings of
4 J. MENCHIK
p. 5; Stepan, 2000, pp. 38–39). For example, NU and Muhammadiyah’s desire to defend Islam
against blasphemy has led them to back restrictions on free expression. Their overt support
for truncating the rights of unrecognised groups, and their implicit opposition to the rights of
non-Muslim political leaders to compete for support, likewise violate these criteria. In the
following sections I pay closest attention to other aspects of the values of NU and
Muhammadiyah that lead them to back anti-democratic actors and policies.
The alliance between NU, Muhammadiyah and anti-democratic actors could lead to
further democratic breakdown. If NU and Muhammadiyah compromise other demo-
cratic values, then we are likely to see a further democratic decline. If the state crosses
red lines by putting in place policies that are against Islamic civil society’s material and
ideological interests, then we are likely to see NU and Muhammadiyah not just criticise
the state, which they should and often do, but further support autocrats and Islamists
who implement increasingly anti-democratic policies. In that respect, Indonesia’s mod-
erate Muslims are akin to white American evangelical Christian supporters of Donald
Trump, who care so much about abortion and the Supreme Court that they back
a populist demagogue (Beckman, 2016).
Case Studies
The three case studies in this section, drawing on original interviews, survey data and
newspaper reports, provide empirical evidence to support the argument that NU and
Muhammadiyah align with anti-democratic actors under certain conditions. The first
case study dates from the early 2000s, when Islamist vigilante groups began attacking
a small, socially marginal Islamic sect known as Ahmadiyah. Some Ahmadiyah
followers believe that their sect’s founder, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad, was a prophet,
a belief that differs from the beliefs of many Sunni Muslims, including the leaders of
NU and Muhammadiyah.3 Despite their opposition to the violence, NU and
Muhammadiyah aligned with Islamists in calling for restrictions on minority rights to
prohibit the Ahmadis from proselytising or otherwise spreading their views. The second
case study continues the focus on Ahmadiyah by showing how, at a constitutional court
hearing in 2010, leaders of NU and Muhammadiyah again allied with Islamists in
support of maintaining the country’s law against penodaan agama (defamation of
religion), further truncating freedom of expression. Finally, the third case study focuses
on the contentious 2016 Jakarta gubernatorial race, which saw NU and Muhammadiyah
choosing to oppose blasphemy against Islam over supporting the Christian governor, at
the expense of rule of law and minority rights. And since 2016, NU has continued to
back Amin in order to gain patronage. In sum, each case study demonstrates the
conditions under which moderate Muslims align with anti-democratic actors due to
shared values or interests.
The issue of Ahmadiyah broke onto the national scene again a few years later. In
response to the violence in Kuningan in 2003, a group of liberal political activists began
researching victims of religious violence and the laws that were being used to persecute
religious minorities, and gathering material to petition the constitutional court to strike
down those laws. The liberals’ campaign gained steam, paradoxically, due to a violent
attack on the Aliansi Kebangsaan Untuk Kebebasan Beragama dan Berkeyakinan
(AKKBB; National Alliance for Freedom of Religion and Belief), a network of repre-
sentatives from more than seventy Indonesian organisations including Abshar Abdalla’s
Jaringan Islam Liberal (JIL; Liberal Islamic Network), the Wahid Institute, Persekutuan
Gereja-Gereja Indonesia (PGI; Indonesian Communion of Churches), Jemaah
Ahmadiyah Indonesia (JAI; Ahmadiyah Indonesia Congregation) and others. On
10 May 2008, the AKKBB published a full-page advertisement in multiple Jakarta
newspapers calling for a return to the values of the constitution and the Pancasila,
including respect for Ahmadiyah. The Pancasila is the basis of Indonesian national
ideology. Its five principles are belief in God, humanitarianism, national unity, social
justice and democracy as expressed through representatives of the people. The signa-
tories included prominent religious and political leaders. Then, on 1 June 2008, AKKBB
held a rally in central Jakarta to mark the 63rd anniversary of the Pancasila and again
call for the protection of religious minorities.
Instead of celebrating pluralism, however, the attendees were attacked with clubs and
sticks by 400 members of hardline groups including the FPI, Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia
(HTI; Party of Liberation, Indonesia), Forum Ukhuwah Islamiyah (FUI; Islamic
Community Forum) and Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia (MMI; Indonesian Mujahidin
Council). Upwards of 70 of the AKKBB demonstrators were injured, with some
requiring surgery (Crouch, 2010, p. 13). A spokesperson for HTI claimed the group
was neither directly nor indirectly involved in the attack on the AKKBB (Yusanto,
2010). The International Crisis Group, like Crouch, suggested otherwise (ICG, 2008).
Until that point, most of the violence toward Ahmadiyah was in Indonesia’s geo-
graphic and political periphery. It came as no surprise that eight days after the violence
in Jakarta, the Minister of Religion, the Attorney General and the Minister of Home
Affairs attempted to resolve the issue of Ahmadiyah with a surat keputusan bersama
(SKB; joint ministerial decree). The SKB warned citizens not to support groups whose
activities deviate from the teachings of an official religion; warned followers of
Ahmadiyah not to promote deviant teachings; informed followers of Ahmadiyah who
did not comply with the warning that they would be liable to penalties; and warned the
public not to resort to vigilantism (Crouch, 2010, p. 5).
Once again, NU and Muhammadiyah supported restrictions on the rights and liberties
of Ahmadiyah. Muhammadiyah chair Din Syamsuddin said that Ahmadiyah’s views could
not be tolerated because they pertained to aqidah. Similarly, NU’s Rais Aam Habib Luthfi
bin Ali bin Yahya said that Ahmadiyah followers should be invited to follow true Islam.
In doing so, they reflected the views of an overwhelming majority of their leaders.
Table 1 presents survey data from a representative sample of NU and Muhammadiyah
leaders at the branch (cabang) level across Indonesia. The data was collected in 2010 at
the national meetings of the organisations. Table 1 demonstrates that most NU and
Muhammadiyah leaders are not willing to allow Ahmadiyah members the same rights
as Christian minorities on the issues of constructing new buildings, holding political
10 J. MENCHIK
office and teaching in pesantren (Islamic boarding schools). In sum, while NU and
Muhammadiyah oppose the Islamists’ use of violence, they share a belief that deviance
from Islam is a problem that the state should solve. Unlike blasphemy laws on the
books in democracies such as Ireland and Greece, which are not enforced, NU and
Muhammadiyah want Indonesia’s blasphemy laws enforced to combat religious hetero-
doxy. Their vision for pluralism and their commitment to democratic values do not
extend to heterodox Muslims, and they are willing to ally with increasingly influential
anti-democratic actors, such as MUI and Islamists, in order to shape policies on the
issue of defamation of Islam and truncate the influence of what they see as a deviant
movement (Hicks, 2014; Iskandar, 2016; Rethel, 2017; Schäfer, 2015).
Abdul Mu’ti testified that Islam and Muhammadiyah have long recognised and cele-
brated religious diversity. He then read the “Guide to an Islamic Life for Members of
Muhammadiyah”, issued by the Central Executive Board of Muhammadiyah in
Yogyakarta on 5 February 2001, and signed by the chairman Prof. Dr. H. Ahmad
Syafi’i Maarif and Secretary Dr. H. Khaidar Nasir, M.Sc., in order to demonstrate
Muhammadiyah’s tolerance.
NU took a similar position, with the chair Hasyim Muzadi saying, “We have to be able to
differentiate between democracy and moral deviation” (cited in Christanto, 2010). Outside
the courtroom, Muzadi has been a vocal critic of the vigilante group FPI, and has refused its
repeated requests to engage in dialogue; but inside the courtroom, FPI and NU were on the
same side.
In court hearings, Syafi’i Maarif and the late Abdurrahman Wahid supported the
petitioners, while the leaders of Muhammadiyah and NU, and thus the formal policy of
the institutions, favoured retaining the 1965 blasphemy law. Would their policy have
changed if Wahid or one of the new generation of NU leaders such as Masdar Mas’udi
was leading NU instead of Hasyim Muzadi? I posed this question to the lawyer for NU
and a close friend of Mas’udi, Arsul Sani.
Interviewer: What would change in NU’s policy regarding the blasphemy law if Masdar
became Ketua Umum [chair] of PBNU?
Sani: Nothing.
Interviewer: But he has been more supportive of tolerance to the Ahmadiyah [than Hasyim
Muzadi], right?
Sani: Yes, of course. But he would be surrounded by other people whose opinions need to
be considered (interview, 17 March 2010).
Even though Assyaukanie, Mas’udi, Maarif, Wahid, Mulia and Abshar Abdalla sup-
ported revoking the blasphemy law, the bulk of opinion in NU and Muhammadiyah
was against them. The majority of NU and Muhammadiyah leaders favoured restric-
tions on freedom of expression in order to combat heterodox interpretations of Islam.
After administering the survey mentioned above, I frequently chatted informally
with respondents. In conversation, Muhammadiyah leaders would often differentiate
between Christians and Ahmadis in a way that illustrates how they tend to disavow
intolerance while still marginalising Ahmadiyah: “We respect Christians because they
pray to God. But Ahmadiyah are incorrect in their belief and they damage religion”. By
emphasising their tolerance, they place the onus on the Ahmadis for their own exclu-
sion for breaking Islam (conceived of as an institution) and undermining the state’s
structure of support for Islam (interviews, Yogyakarta, 5–8 July 2010).
By the end of the trial the outcome was certain: the justices, NU, Muhammadiyah
and the overwhelming majority of witnesses and experts came out in support of the
status quo. In private conversation, Sani expressed frustration with the government for
presenting a wide array of hardline groups rather than engaging with the moderate NU
and Muhammadiyah. But like Muzadi, he took the official position of PBNU in the
courtroom. Rather than view the law as an inappropriate intervention of the state in
12 J. MENCHIK
private religious matters, or an abrogation of the state’s duty to protect free expression,
a consensus emerged that the state should prioritise the prevention of blasphemy.
This section has demonstrated that there are aspects of the values of NU and
Muhammadiyah that align with those of the Islamists. While not solely responsible
for democratic breakdown in Indonesia, this overlap means that NU and
Muhammadiyah are willing to partner with non-democratic actors in order to advance
their values on the issues of freedom of expression, blasphemy and minority rights. NU
and Muhammadiyah do not feel that heterodox Muslims or non-Muslims should be
permitted to engage in public speech about topics that are germane to orthodox
Muslims’ faith or belief. Table 2 shows that an overwhelming majority of their leaders
oppose Christians undertaking demonstrations in Monas (Jakarta) against the Shari’a
bylaws in Aceh or in favour of interfaith marriage. They are less opposed to Christians
demonstrating about secular issues such as the price of gasoline. But given their views
on the limits of freedom of expression, it should not come as a surprise that NU and
Muhammadiyah aligned with Islamists to keep the state’s blasphemy law in place.
Indeed, when those issues become highly salient, we can expect them to ally with
Islamists to the detriment of democratic institutions. The result is the further strength-
ening of conservative actors such as MUI and of limitations on minorities.
moment to rally against the Christian governor and in support of Ahok’s opponents in
the 19 April election. One of Ahok’s opponents, Anies Baswedan, who once had
a reputation as a moderate, saw the benefits of demagoguery and publicly allied with
the FPI (Topsfield, 2017). The FPI pressured the police, then the North Jakarta District
Court, to charge Ahok with blasphemy, and called on the public to rally against the
Christian governor.
The rallies were some of the largest in Indonesian history. The 4 November 2016
rally in Monas attracted an estimated 200,000 people and was led by the hardline FPI,
and supported by HTI and the conservative MUI. It drew participants from the Islamic
recitation groups Majelis Rosulullah (Council of the Prophet) and Majelis Dzikir
Nurussalam (Nurussalam House for Dzikir) (Mudhoffir, 2016). The second rally, on
2 December 2016, was attended by upwards of 750,000 people. Organised by a coalition
of hardline groups called the National Movement to Safeguard the Indonesian Ulema
Council’s Fatwa, the rally was a show of force by Islamists. While not all of the
attendees wanted the state to be governed by Islamic law, or to restrict minority rights,
they clearly wanted Ahok punished for blasphemy against Islam (Fealy, 2016).
Not surprisingly, the election results were overwhelmingly in favour of Baswedan,
who won by polarising Jakarta along ethnic and religious lines. Non-Muslims over-
whelmingly voted for Ahok, while between 65 and 70 per cent of Muslims voted for
Baswedan (Warburton & Gammon, 2017). Ahok was brought up and convicted on
blasphemy charges despite the recognised fact that the video had been edited in
a misleading way. Rather than following the rule of law, the judges bowed to public
pressure from MUI, Islamists and demonstrators.
As in the other two cases, NU and Muhammadiyah prioritised defence of Islam,
alongside Muslim leadership in Jakarta, over adherence to rule of law or minority
rights. An overwhelming majority of NU and Muhammadiyah leaders do not believe
that a Christian should be allowed to be the mayor in a majority Muslim area such as
Banda Aceh or to be the president of Indonesia. 48 per cent of leaders oppose
a Christian being allowed to be the governor of Jakarta. Table 3 demonstrates that
they support Christians holding elected office, but only in areas that are predominantly
Christian, such as Manado, or in an unspecified office and region. Other surveys of the
elites and mass membership of NU and Muhammadiyah (Bush, 2014), as well as
surveys of broader Muslim public opinion (Mujani, 2003), suggest that the leaders of
these organisations are more tolerant than either the membership or the Muslim public
at large. Yet even they do not support a Christian becoming governor of Jakarta, which
shows that Ahok always faced an uphill battle.
The leader of NU, Said Aqil, invited Ahok to some events but also criticised him for
his comments about the Quran and his critiques of Amin, the NU and MUI cleric who
accused Ahok of blasphemy. NU did not mobilise in favour of Ahok, and it is not clear
that it could have. Most NU leaders dislike Islamists but not enough to rally support for
a Christian governor. Muhammadiyah was similar: chair Haedar Nashir condemned the
anti-Ahok rallies and urged Muhammadiyah members not to join them. But Amien
Rais was very vocal in condemning the allegedly blasphemous act committed by Ahok
and was featured prominently as a speaker in the rallies. Din Syamsuddin condemned
Ahok’s action and said he would lead a “resistance” movement should Ahok not be
brought to justice.
NU’s behaviour since the Ahok case has further affirmed the strength of the organisa-
tion’s non-democratic values. Amin is a prominent NU cleric, and it was always unlikely
that NU would publicly break with Amin in favour of Ahok. Since 2017, moreover, Widodo
has actively cultivated Amin and channelled state resources to NU in order to guarantee the
organisation’s support in the April 2019 presidential election (Fealy, 2018). Amin’s ability
to deliver patronage to NU has proven more important to the organisation’s leadership
than supporting mutual respect. Patronage politics are not new to NU: scholars in the 1950s
and 1960s frequently explained NU’s political behaviour on the basis of crass opportunism
(Lev, 1966, p. 125, p. 272, pp. 280–281; Samson, 1968, p. 1003). Today, both material and
ideological interests appear to be driving NU toward support for Amin, and away from
supporting democracy.
This most recent case again demonstrates that many leaders of NU and Muhammadiyah
are contingent democrats who hold non-democratic values in addition to democratic ones.
From the standpoint of empirical democratic theory, such a hierarchy of values is unsur-
prising, albeit worrisome given the implications for democratic breakdown.
of the quality of Indonesian democracy: court decisions are often swayed by public
opinion rather than the rule of law, minority rights are too frequently dependent on
majority support rather than citizenship, and unelected actors such as MUI have
become more powerful than elected officials (Crouch, 2016). At these moments,
Indonesia resembles authoritarian Pakistan or Malaysia rather than a consolidated
democracy.
Second, this article provides an alternative narrative to the most common interpreta-
tion of the Ahok case. The common view is that the defeat and imprisonment of Ahok
boded ill for Indonesian democracy. Pundits argue that it is an omen of increased
minority oppression, the rising power of Islamists ahead of the 2019 presidential
election, and a judiciary swayed by the emotions of the mob rather than the letter of
the law (Kurniawan, 2017).
This article suggests that such a view is overly positive in its assessment of
Indonesian democracy prior to the Ahok case, overstating the religious and political
freedom of Christians and other minorities before Ahok. There are implicit and explicit
red lines in Indonesia that minorities know not to cross: publicly criticising Islam,
interfaith proselytising, and supporting Christian leaders in Muslim-majority areas.
These are areas where society and the state are structurally oppressive toward mino-
rities. In that respect, Indonesia is a lot like the US, where African–Americans make up
13 per cent of the overall population but 40 per cent of the incarcerated population.
African–American males are six times more likely to be incarcerated than white males.
Racial minorities are more likely than white Americans to be arrested; once arrested,
they are more likely to be convicted; once convicted, they are more likely to face stiff
sentences (NAACP, 2017). In other words, the US criminal justice system is structurally
oppressive toward racial minorities. It is a feature of the American system in the same
way that the Indonesian state is oppressive of religious minorities.
The third implication is less theoretical and more akin to a normative proposition.
Although this article provides a warning about the limits of NU’s and Muhammadiyah’s
commitment to democracy, their values could be articulated with greater emphasis on
social welfare, education, anti-corruption, national sovereignty and pluralism, to name
a few. If these issues were more central to public deliberation, then we might see less
Islamist mobilisation and a return to the era when civil Islam set the terms for debate in
Indonesia (van Bruinessen, 2013). Linz notes that extremist appeals can be marginalised
if leaders committed to democracy actively oppose anti-democratic actors (Linz, 1978,
p. 12). A coalition of moderates such as Joko Widodo, former president Susilo
Bambang Yudhyono, NU leaders such as Masdar Farid Mas’udi and Ahmad Mustofa
“Gus Mus” Bisri, and Muhammadiyah leaders such as Abdul Mu`ti and Haedar Nashir,
working alongside minority groups and mainstream political parties, could truncate the
appeal of autocrats and advance democratic reforms.
How might such a coalition emerge? It is difficult to imagine democratic deepening
at a time of rampant patrimonialism, and when demagogues such as Subianto,
Baswedan and Amin dominate politics. Here again, Bellin’s work is instructive (2000,
p. 205). As political and economic conditions change, moderate Muslims may shift their
alliances. The biggest menace to moderate Muslims is not blasphemy; it is the country’s
astonishing levels of corruption and the weak social-welfare institutions that hamper
socioeconomic development. Politicians who pledge to fight corruption, improve public
16 J. MENCHIK
infrastructure and develop schools and healthcare are likely to find support from
moderate Muslims. NU and Muhammadiyah activists can themselves increase the
ability of their organisations to back democratic reforms by strengthening policies
mandating that members who run for political office resign their institutional positions.
Greater distance from party politics would make the organisations less dependent on
patronage and its polluting effects. After all, their contingency presents the possibility
for democratic development, as well as democratic breakdown.
Notes
1. The prominent pluralist intellectuals from NU and Muhammadiyah are too numerous to
list exhaustively here, but among the most influential since democratisation have been Ulil
Abshar Abdalla, Tutty Alawiyah, Luthfi Assyaukanie, Azyumardi Azra, Achmad Mustofa
Bisri, Arief Budiman, Sandra Hamid, Syafi’i Maarif, Sahal Mahfudz, Masdar Mas’udi,
Husein Muhammad, Abdul Mu`ti, Siti Musdah Mulia, Haedar Nasir, Lies Marcoes
Natsir, Quraish Shihab, Said Aqil Siradj, Maria Ulfah, Nasaruddin Umar, Abdurrahman
Wahid and Habib Luthfi Yahya.
2. Ahok’s conviction was based on comments he made on the campaign trail, when he said
that those who cited a Quranic verse to support their view that Christians should not hold
high office were being duplicitous. An edited video of his speech posted online was made
to appear as though Ahok was criticising those who follow the Quran. The video went
viral. Islamist groups seized on the moment to rally against the governor and in support of
Ahok’s opponents in the 19 April election. Their movement propelled Ahok’s opponent,
Anies Baswedan, into the governor’s mansion. And they propelled Ahok into prison.
3. The two major sects of Ahmadiyah, Qadiani and Lahore, differ on the question of the
finality of the prophethood of Muhammad. This article focuses exclusively on the Qadiani
since they have been the subject of controversy in Indonesia. “Ahmadiyah” thus refers to
the Qadiani.
Acknowledgments
I am grateful for thoughtful feedback from Donald Emmerson, Robert Hefner and Kaija Schilde.
I am especially thankful to Gustav Brown and Amelia Fauzia for organising this special issue, and
to the editor David Hundt and the two anonymous reviewers for outstanding advice on how to
improve the manuscript. This article is dedicated to the memory of Alfred Stepan.
ORCID
Jeremy Menchik http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5331-073X
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