Seasonal Rainfall Forecast

Seasonal Climate Watch
September 2017 to January 2018
Date issued: Aug 31, 2017
1. Overview
There is no indication that increased rainfall activities will occur during the spring (Sep-Oct-
Nov) season for the south western parts of the country. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM),
which is in a strong positive phase and predicted to remain positive in the coming weeks, adds
to this assessment, because a positive phase usually indicates that frontal systems are less
likely to reach South Africa.
Given the current strain on water resources in the south-western parts of the country and
seemingly no significant rainfall activities during spring, it is recommended that the current
drought measures (which are already in place) continue for the foreseeable future.
Forecasts however do indicate that there is an increased chance for above-normal rainfall
between spring and late spring (Oct-Nov-Dec) over the north-eastern parts of the country.
Conditions over the Indian Ocean promotes this forecast; however, there are indications that
these conditions may start to moderate during late spring.
Furthermore, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is now likely to have no
specific influence over the coming summer months over South Africa. In addition, as the
current and predicted state of ENSO is for neutral conditions, there is currently no confident
forecast that can be made for the forthcoming summer rainfall.
Temperatures are expected to be largely above normal for most parts of the country during
the spring and early summer periods.
The South African Weather Service will continue its dissemination of any future assessments
that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.
For further inquiries contact [email protected]

Tele: +27 12 367 6008
2. Discussion: State of Climate Drivers
2.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation
Observations show that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is gradually cooling towards
the neutral phase and forecasts suggest that it will remain in a neutral phase in the coming
months. The likelihood for an El Niño event has decreased further from previous
assessments.
2.2 Indian Ocean Dipole
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forecasts indicate a slow evolution towards a positive
phase of the tropical IOD for spring 2017, however it is not predicted to be significant
through the spring period. This could still indicate favourable rainfall for the Equatorial
East African region for that period. This is as a result of increased moisture transport to
the continent given the positive dipole structure. For South Africa, however, the
conditions over the south-west Indian Ocean are more important. Indications are that
there is indeed a positive dipole structure towards the south-west of the Indian Ocean,
and hence it is expected to positively influence rainfall for spring.
2.3 Southern Annular Mode
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has moved into a strong positive phase over the last
few weeks, and the forecast indicates a weakening of the system for the coming weeks.
However, this weakening of SAM does not necessarily suggest any change from the
current state and is likely to remain in a positive phase. This current state and forecast
indicates that frontal activities are less likely to reach South Africa and produce rainfall
activities. A negative (positive) phase of the SAM and the weakening (strengthening) of the
polar vortex are often associated with colder (warmer) and wetter (drier) conditions over
the winter-rainfall region of South Africa, through frontal activities. It is worth noting that
this system is not predictable on a seasonal timescale, which then complicates the
assessment for the winter-rainfall region for the entire early spring period.

Tele: +27 12 367 6008
3. Climate Forecast Details
3.1 Rainfall
The forecasting system is currently very uncertain on a specific direction of rainfall during
mid spring; however, there are strong indications that wetter conditions can be expected
from late spring and early summer. This is however only expected to be significant for the
summer-rainfall areas of South Africa.
Figure 1: Rainfall forecasts for the three overlapping seasons valid for the period of September 2017 to
January 2018 and extreme forecasts for September to November 2017 season (right panel). Forecast quality
for total seasonal rainfall is indicated in the Appendix (Figure A1).

Tele: +27 12 367 6008
3.2 Minimum and Maximum Temperatures
Temperatures for the most parts are expected to be higher throughout the country with
only the minimum temperatures showing signs of uncertainty during early summer.
Figure 2: Probabilistic minimum (left panel) and maximum (right panel) temperature forecasts for the
three overlapping seasons valid for the period of September 2017 to January 2018. Forecast quality for
average seasonal temperature is indicated in the Appendix (Figure A2).

Tele: +27 12 367 6008
4. Contributing Institutions
All the forecasts are a result of an objective multi-model prediction system developed at the
South African Weather Service. This system consists of long-range forecasts produced by the
following institutions:

Tele: +27 12 367 6008
5. Appendix
Figure A1: The skill of the forecasting system in discriminating wet or dry events during the forecasting
period as shown in the caption of each plot. Those regions with no shades imply that the forecasts are not
better than chance.

Tele: +27 12 367 6008
Figure A2: The skill of the forecasting system in discriminating hot or cold events during the forecasting
period as shown in the caption of each plot. Those regions with no shades imply that the forecasts are not
better than chance.

Tele: +27 12 367 6008

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecast

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Seasonal Climate Watch

September 2017 to January 2018

Date issued: Aug 31, 2017

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

2.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation

2.2 Indian Ocean Dipole

2.3 Southern Annular Mode

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

For further inquiries contact [email protected]

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