Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181

Álvaro Rocha
Manolo Paredes-Calderón
Teresa Guarda   Editors

Developments and
Advances in Defense
and Security
Proceedings of MICRADS 2020

123
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies

Volume 181

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Shoreham-by-sea, UK
Lakhmi C. Jain, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology,
Centre for Artificial Intelligence, University of Technology Sydney,
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The Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies book series encompasses the
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Álvaro Rocha Manolo Paredes-Calderón
• •

Teresa Guarda
Editors

Developments and Advances

in Defense and Security
Proceedings of MICRADS 2020

123
Editors
Álvaro Rocha Manolo Paredes-Calderón
Departamento de Engenharia Informática Centro de Investigación Científica y
Universidade de Coimbra Tecnológica del Ejército (CICTE)
Coimbra, Portugal Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE
Sangolqui, Ecuador
Teresa Guarda
Universidad Estatal Península de Santa
Elena
La Libertad, Ecuador

ISSN 2190-3018 ISSN 2190-3026 (electronic)

Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
ISBN 978-981-15-4874-1 ISBN 978-981-15-4875-8 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8

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Preface

This book contains a selection of papers accepted for presentation and discussion at
the 2020 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to
Defense and Security (MICRADS’20). This conference had the support of ESPE
(University of Armed Forces) of Ecuador, IME (Military Institute of Engineering)
of Brazil and AISTI (Iberian Association for Information Systems and
Technologies). It took place in Quito, Ecuador, during May 13–15, 2020.
The 2020 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to
Defense and Security (MICRADS’20) is an international forum for researchers and
practitioners to present and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, results,
experiences and concerns in several perspectives of defense and security.
The Program Committee of MICRADS’20 was composed of a multidisciplinary
group of more than 200 experts from 40 countries around the world and those who
are intimately concerned with research applied to defense and security. They have
had the responsibility for evaluating, in a ‘double-blind review’ process, the papers
received for each of the main themes proposed for the conference: (A) systems,
communication and defense; (B) strategy and political-administrative vision in
defense and (C) engineering and technologies applied to defense.
MICRADS’20 received 119 contributions from 11 countries around the world.
The papers accepted for presentation and discussion at the conference are published
by Springer (this book) and by AISTI and will be submitted for indexing by ISI,
EI-Compendex, SCOPUS and/or Google Scholar, among others.
We acknowledge all of those who contributed to the staging of MICRADS’20
(authors, committees, workshop organizers and sponsors). We deeply appreciate
their involvement and support that were crucial for the success of MICRADS’20.

Quito, Ecuador Álvaro Rocha

May 2020 Manolo Paredes-Calderón
Teresa Guarda

v
Contents

Cybersecurity and Cyberdefense

Cyber Security Vulnerabilities in Colombia’s Maritime Critical
Infrastructure (MCI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Yesid Bernardo Gomez Gamboa, Fabián Ramírez-Cabrales,
and José Alejandro Machado Jiménez
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage: Regulations for the Security
of the Coastal State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Fabián Ramírez-Cabrales and José Alejandro Machado Jiménez
Security Versus Usability in E-Government: Insights
from the Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Fernando Huamán Monzón, Manuel Tupia, and Mariuxi Bruzza

Simulation and Computer Vision in Military Applications

Ackermann UGV with 2D Mapping for Unknown Environments . . . . . 45
Wilbert G. Aguilar, Israel Asimbaya, Pablo Albán,
and Yéssica Fernández
Visual-Based Real-Time Detection Using Neural Networks
and Micro-UAVs for Military Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Marco Calderón, Wilbert G. Aguilar, and Darwin Merizalde
Visual and Inertial Data-Based Virtual Localization
for Urban Combat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Wilbert G. Aguilar, Marco Calderón, Darwin Merizalde,
Fabricio Amaguaña, and Jonathan Tituaña
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection System
for Military Robot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Orlando Caiza, Wilbert G. Aguilar, Pablo Albán, and Yéssica Fernández

vii
viii Contents

Autonomous Navigation Based on Proportional Controller

with GPS Setpoint for UAV in External Environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Darwin Merizalde, Wilbert G. Aguilar, and Marco Calderón
Monte Carlo-Based Localization for Kidnapped Robot Problem . . . . . . 101
Wilbert G. Aguilar, Darwin Merizalde, Marco Calderón,
and Alexis Carrera
Automatic Counting of People in Crowded Scenes, with Drones
That Were Applied in Internal Defense Operations
on October 20, 2019 in Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Henry Cruz, Rolando P. Reyes Ch., and María Pinillos
Expert Nutritional System for Military Athletes Based on Fuzzy
Logic and Inferential Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Diana Vallejos, Freddy Tapia, Hernán Aules, Michelle Torres,
and Cristian Bejarano
Earth Coverage Model for GPS-Like Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Vaughn H. Standley, Edward A. Boucheron, Robert K. Kirkwood,
and Benjamin E. Norman

Computer Networks, Mobility and Pervasive Systems

CTR Prediction for Optimizing the Negotiation of Internet
Advertising Campaigns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Jesús Silva, Jesús Vargas, Darwin Rizzo Vergara, Guillermo Araya,
César Rosado, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, and Benjamín Quintero
Classification of Authors for a Recommendation Process Integrated
to a Scientific Meta-Search Engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Amelec Viloria, Tito Crissien, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama,
Luciana Pertuz, Nataly Orellano, and Carlos Vargas Mercado
Performance Evaluation of a Hybrid Vehicle and Sensor Network
to Prevent Traffic Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, and Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama
Comparison of Bio-inspired Algorithms Applied to the Hospital
Mortality Risk Stratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Jesús Silva, Yaneth Herazo-Beltrán, Freddy Marín-González, Noel Varela,
Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, Pablo Palencia,
and Carlos Vargas Mercado
Contents ix

Information and Communication Technology in Education

Articulation of Teaching and Technological Resources
in the Teaching–Learning Process of the English Language . . . . . . . . . 189
Albán Rocha Gina Alexandra, Salazar Mera Javier Vinicio,
Collaguazo Vega Wilmer Patricio, and Paredes Viteri Santiago Efrain
Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost Automation
for Robot Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
Gustavo Caiza, Dalia Alvarez-Montenegro, Juan Escobar-Naranjo,
Carlos A. Garcia, and Marcelo V. Garcia
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques
and Academic Controversy Applied to the Provision
of Cryptographic Confidentiality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Lucy Delgado Barra, Norka Bedregal Alpaca,
Karim Guevara Puente de la Vega, and Olha Sharhorodska
Evolutionary Algorithm for Content-Based Image Search . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, and Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama
Online Platform to Teach Aviation English at a Military School
in Salinas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
Víctor Almeida, Marisol Gutiérrez, José Zambrano,
and Rosalba Rodríguez
Manufacturing Cost Prediction Through Data Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Andrea Díaz, Simón Fernández, Laura Guerra, and Eleazar Díaz
Data Mining and Association Rules to Determine Twitter Trends . . . . . 259
Jesús Silva, Jesús Vargas, Domingo Natteri, Darío Flores,
Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, Bridy Ahumada, and Lesbia Valero
Jayor2: A Proposal of Information Management System
for Command and Control Centers (C3i2) in the Armed Forces . . . . . . 271
Jaime Mayorga, Robert Vargas Borbúa, Rolando P. Reyes Ch.,
and Tatiana Gualotuña

Leadership and e-Leadership

Military Training Mission in Iraq: An Exploratory Case Study
Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
João Reis, Bruno Reis, Marta Nowakowska, and Aneta Kazanecka
Cultural Awareness for Civilian-Military Cooperation
in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Marta Nowakowska, João Reis, and Aneta Kazanecka
x Contents

Situational Awareness of Leadership in Ecuador and Its Applicability

in the Multilevel Military Leadership Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
Celio H. Puga, Paolo Suárez, Valentina Ramos, Isabel Abad,
and Alex F. Jimenez

Defense Engineering
A Portable GSM Base Station Solution for Military Communications
in Hostile Environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
Carlos Daniel Altamirano, Santiago Barragán, Felipe Grijalva,
and Manolo Paredes
Characterization and Simulation of a Propagation Model
to Determine the Secondary Effects that Generate High Power
and Frequency Electromagnetic Signs When Impact on Electronic
Systems and Surface of Vehicles Family AMX13
of The Land Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
Jorge Damian Alvarez, Pablo Albán, Jonathan Lopez,
and Yéssica Fernández
Public Order Disruption Event Detection Based on IoT Technology.
An Approach for the Improvement of Public Security Conditions . . . . . 343
Pablo Albán, López Roberto, Alexander Mejía, Isaac Vallejo, Itaty Alban,
Shakira Cofre, and Esteban Molina
Vibration Effects of the Fixed-Wing Aircraft of the Army Aviation
from Ecuador on the Human Body . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
Víctor Yépez, Isabel Arcentales, María León, and Pablo Caiza
Determination of Optimal Procedures for Maintenance
and Repair Operations of the GDU-620 Garmin Applied
to the DA20C-1 Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Margarita Palma, Flor Garcés, Samaniego Julio, and Pablo Albán

Planning, Economy and Logistics Applied to Defense

Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military
Service—The Case of the Portuguese Armed Forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
Lúcio Agostinho Barreiros Santos
and Maria Manuela Martins Saraiva Sarmento Coelho
Defense Organizations Budgeting and Management Control Systems
in Restrictive Budgets Context—Literature Gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
Luis M. Godinho and Tiago Gonçalves
Coupling Architecture Between INS/GPS for Precise Navigation
on Set Paths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama,
Hugo Hernández Palma, and Eduardo Nicolas Cueto
Contents xi

Vehicle Flow Prediction Through Probabilistic Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . 409

Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama,
Vladimir Álvarez, and Boris de la Hoz
Strategies and Organizational Changes for the Logistics Sustainability
of Military Aircraft: Towards the Digital Transformation
of In-Service Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
Manuel Antonio Fernández-Villacañas Marín
University–Industry Collaboration Barriers: Project Management
Solutions for Defense R&D—A Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431
Anibal Jara-Olmedo, Mauricio Quisimalin, and Danilo Chavez
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining Techniques
for the Prediction of Internment Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
Nuno M. P. Caetano and Nuno A. R. S. Loureiro
Mobile Military Reactors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
Vaughn H. Standley, Martin D. Poon, and Joshua M. Baughman
The Competitive Advantage of Additive Manufacturing
in the Naval Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
Teresa Guarda and Maria Fernanda Augusto

Strategy, Geopolitics and Oceanopolitics

Ocean Policy of the UNCLOS in Ecuador Based on New Geodynamic
and Geochronological Evidences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 485
Theofilos Toulkeridis, Yamirka Rojas-Agramonte,
and Gustavo Paz Noboa
Geopolitical Perspective on the Sea: Key Highlights from the Past
and for the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497
Aneta Kazanecka, Wojciech Kazanecki, Joao Reis,
and Marta Nowakowska
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea Through Hybridity:
EU Narrative Under Scrutiny . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507
Ana Paula Brandão
Algorithms for Crime Prediction in Smart Cities Through
Data Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519
Jesús Silva, Ligia Romero, Roberto Jiménez González, Omar Larios,
Fanny Barrantes, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, and Alberto Manotas
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power:
The Ecuadorian Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
Luis Recalde, Marco Antonio Criollo, and María Dolores Santos
xii Contents

The Armed Forces as a Immediate Response State Institution

and Its Participation as an Articulator in the Risk Management
in Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 545
Víctor Yépez, Jorge Toledo, and Theofilos Toulkeridis

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555

About the Editors

Álvaro Rocha holds the title of Honorary Professor, and holds a D.Sc. in
Information Science, Ph.D. in Information Systems and Technologies, M.Sc. in
Information Management, and Bachelor in Computer Science. He is a Professor of
Information Systems at the University of Coimbra, researcher at CISUC (Centre for
Informatics and Systems of the University of Coimbra), and a collaborator
researcher at both LIACC (Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Computer
Science) and CINTESIS (Center for Research in Health Technologies and
Information Systems). His main research interests are information systems planning
and management, maturity models, information systems quality, online service
quality, intelligent information systems, software engineering, e-Government,
e-Health, and information technology in education. He is also President of AISTI
(the Iberian Association for Information Systems and Technologies), Chair of the
IEEE Portugal Section Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society Chapter, and
Editor-in-Chief of both JISEM (Journal of Information Systems Engineering &
Management) and RISTI (Iberian Journal of Information Systems and
Technologies). Moreover, he has served as Vice-Chair of Experts for the European
Commission’s Horizon 2020 program, and as an Expert at the Government of
Italy’s Ministry of Education, Universities and Research, at the Government of
Latvia’s Ministry of Finance, at the Government of Mexico’s National Council
of Science and Technology, and at the Government of Polish’s National Science
Centre.

Manolo Paredes-Calderón was born in Ambato, Ecuador, in September 1978. He

went to the “Eloy Alfaro” Military Academy, where he graduated in 2000 as an
Army Second Lieutenant with a Bachelor in Military Sciences. Later, he obtained
his Engineering degree in Electronics and Telecommunications at the Polytechnic
Army School ESPE University. He obtained his Master of Science in Electronic
Engineering from the Military Institute of Engineering IME in Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil. His areas of expertise include digital signal processing and radio signal

xiii
xiv About the Editors

propagation. He is currently the Director of the CICTE Military Applications

Research Center and a Professor at the Department of Electrical, Electronics and
Telecommunications, ESPE University of the Armed Forces.

Teresa Guarda received her Ph.D. in Systems and Information Technologies from
Minho University in 2015. She is currently a researcher at the ALGORITMI
Research Centre, Minho University, Portugal, where she is a member of the
Intelligent Data Systems (IDS) research team and the Information Systems and
Technologies (IST) R&D group. She has published extensively in the following
areas: pervasive systems, marketing intelligence, crowdsourcing, data mining
and knowledge discovery, Internet of Things, knowledge management, and
cyber-security. She has also served as a reviewer for many prominent journals, and
as a Professor and researcher at various academic institutions in Portugal since
1991; currently, she is the Director of the CIST Research Center of the Santa Elena
Peninsula State University (Ecuador) and a Visiting Professor at the Security and
Defense Department of Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas (Ecuador).
Cybersecurity and Cyberdefense
Cyber Security Vulnerabilities
in Colombia’s Maritime Critical
Infrastructure (MCI)

Yesid Bernardo Gomez Gamboa, Fabián Ramírez-Cabrales ,

and José Alejandro Machado Jiménez

Abstract This study identifies the threats that affect the cyber security of the mar-
itime critical infrastructure in Colombia. Specifically, four Colombian ports were
analyzed. Based on a descriptive and qualitative analysis, the operational and security
resources of this sample were compared with the guidelines and recommendations
of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) contained in Circular 3 of 5 July
2017. The diagnosis shows negative results in terms of the current preparation of
ports for possible cyber threats. It is proposed to adopt the IMO recommendations in
harmony with the five strategic lines indicated by the Joint Cyber Command of the
Colombian Military Forces (2017), and in compliance with the measures that reg-
ulate the navigation of ships in innocent passage through the Colombian territorial
sea.

Keywords Maritime cybersecurity · Innocent passage · Risks · Threats ·

Colombian seaports

1 Introduction

Maritime navigation is an activity regulated by international law, in particular, by the

right of every foreign vessel to pass through the territorial waters of a State, in time

Y. B. G. Gamboa · F. Ramírez-Cabrales (B) · J. A. M. Jiménez

Escuela Superior de Guerra, Carrera 11 No. 102-50 Cantón Norte, Bogotá, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
Y. B. G. Gamboa
e-mail: [email protected]
J. A. M. Jiménez
e-mail: [email protected]
Escuela Naval de Cadetes Almirante Padilla, Barrio Bosque, Isla de Manzanillo, Cartagena de
Indias, Colombia
Universidad Libre, Pie de la Popa Calle Real No 20-177, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 3
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_1
4 Y. B. G. Gamboa et al.

of peace, and provided that its passage does not adversely affect peace, security, and
proper order. In maritime traffic, each State has the role of a coastal State regarding
its territorial sea and in accordance with international law, but also, because of the
nature of the situations in matters of maritime safety that arise in such traffic, it is
included the flag State or the port State. For any of these situations, the world of mar-
itime security simply includes the identification of risks, vulnerabilities and threats,
and not only for the navigation of the ships but also for the conditions of installation,
maintenance and operation of the port infrastructure of a coastal State. One of the
critical elements in terms of security and protection is the computer infrastructures
from which the computer systems allow the operation of ships and ports, integrating
such critical aspects as the ship–port interface. The access of foreign ships to the
territorial waters of the coastal State demands the implementation of controls and
restrictions that allow it to govern and manage everything that may affect the secu-
rity of its ships, ports, population and territories. One way in which international law
allows each State to design and implement these controls and restrictions is through
the regulation and enforcement of the passage of ships through its waters, in a man-
ner that responds to advances in the State of navigation and maritime safety. The
IMO, through its directives and recommendations, specifies certain conditions for
maritime and port activities to unify such controls and restrictions, so that activities
at sea can flourish in conditions of peace, security and proper order. However, even
though the IMO instruments are present, the Colombian State has yet to regulate
aspects that particularly affect maritime safety when foreign ships make use of the
right of passage through its territorial waters. Thereupon, as part of the research
project, COLCIENCIAS—ARC No. 64905, which aims to propose standards for
the regulation of the right of innocent passage of foreign ships in Colombia, the
progress of a study on the aspects that should be considered in the area of maritime
cyber security is presented.

2 Problem Statement

The use of information and communication technologies is necessary tools for daily
maritime operations. In the Colombian State’s territorial sea, controls on maritime
operations have been gradually evolving, thanks to the adoption of IMO recommen-
dations and the dynamism of port activities in recent years. However, it is necessary
to observe the entire area of the Colombian territorial sea, including its air space,
and the needs that arise in maritime traffic not only through the access of ships in
Colombian ports but also through the passage that some foreign ships make in the
territorial waters without berthing in a port. There is an increasing reliance on infor-
mation and communication technologies both in the crossing and in the berthing of
ships in port facilities.
Cyber Security Vulnerabilities in Colombia’s Maritime Critical … 5

The vast majority of ships and platforms that access Colombian waters use a wide
range of sensors, such as meteorological (RFID),1 Wi-Fi and satellite internet sensors.
These sensors communicate critical information to different systems that allow the
navigation of ships, such as the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the Electronic
Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS), the Global Navigation Satellite
System (GNSS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). Also, very vulnerable
to any form of external interception, both ships and port facilities, are the alarms,
LEDs, display and general force drivers (actuators) [1].
Technologies used in maritime activities also present increasing risks due to net-
work interceptions and the proliferation of malware. Most of these risks have been
classified as a result of cyber-attacks [2]. Studies of individual cyber-attacks have led
to the proper identification of cyber risks. For example, the most emblematic recent
cases have been the White Rose of Drax yacht (2013), the Ransomware-type block-
ade of the management and control systems of the ships of the MAERSK shipping
company (2017), and the disruption of operations on oil drilling platforms (2010,
2012 and 2014), the attack on the servers of the shipping company IRISL (2011),
the cargo control system of the Australian customs (2012), and the alteration of the
information of the containers in the port of Antwerp in Belgium between 2011 and
2013. As a result of these studies, the IMO has set a deadline of 2021 for owners
and administrations to incorporate cyber security measures on tankers subject to
OCIMF2 controls. However, it is also necessary to consider that many cyber risks
cannot become publicly known for justified reasons of national security and, com-
mercially, because of speculation that may arise from the values of cybersecurity
services and premiums on the marine insurance market.
The identification of cybernetic risks both in ships and in port facilities has been
prevented through guidelines that the IMO defined in 2002 through the regulations
known as ‘ISPS Code’ in Spanish, known as the ISPS Code [3]. In the development
of the ISPS and under the SOLAS Conventions, States have been regulating specific
matters such as, for example, the entry of goods into air and sea terminals, which may
include cyber risks. On the part of the Colombian State, the regulation of the ISPS is
adopted in consideration of its commitments acquired by the SOLAS Conventions,
and not in a complete and formal way, leaving to the discretion of the Government and
the development of the maritime authorities the possibility of advancing regulations
according to opportunity criteria for partial aspects. Thus, for example, there is a
presidential decree 2155 of 2014 [4] that defines the unified standards of technology
of non-intrusive inspection equipment, certainly applicable to the equipment that
supports the port activities and the ships. This decree creates an administrative body
with a cross-sector composition for the implementation of non-intrusive inspection

1 RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) is a technology similar, in theory, to bar code identifi-
cation, but this technology employs electromagnetic or electrostatic waves for the transmission
of the signal containing the information. RFID is also known as DSRC (Dedicated Short Range
Communications).
2 OCIMF is an advisory body to the IMO, constituted as an international marine forum for oil

companies to promote the safe and environmentally responsible transportation of oil and oil
products.
6 Y. B. G. Gamboa et al.

systems, which could establish guidelines for port operators to take more control.
However, if it only regulates the conditions of unification of the inspection teams, it
leaves a precedent that encourages the dispersion of regulations, in order to diversify
the subjects, and not to concentrate those elements that are integrated into the intrusive
cyber risk, especially necessary in the ports of the States as in the case of Colombia.
It is necessary not to forget that these risks make the maritime ports a critical focus
of vulnerabilities not only of cyber-attacks but also of spontaneous or not allowed
intrusions, which can affect both the security conditions in the port activities as well as
the access to the infrastructure interconnected with the ports. There is also a particular
need for State regulation to contain correction criteria that are more appropriate
to the needs of maritime cybersecurity. These criteria are the result of relations
between owners, shipping agents, ship managers and providers for cybersecurity
risk management.
In the event that the regulation of States is dispersed, the IMO will issue recom-
mendations in 2016 in Circular 1525 of 1 June 2016 [5]. Within the organization of
the Colombian maritime public administration, and the powers that its bodies legally
have, Circular 1525 specifies some of the following recommendations, which can be
included in the Colombian regulations for the management of maritime cyber risk:
1. Specify the powers to be exercised by officials, in particular regarding inspection,
testing of ship and port facility security measures and procedures, together with
the possible application of enforcement measures to correct instances of non-
compliance.
2. In maritime security measures for cybercrime risk, differentiate matters to be
regulated by so-called ‘primary regulation’ (i.e. laws and decrees) from what
is called ‘secondary regulation’ (regulations, instructions, manuals, adopted in
pursuance of powers granted by primary regulation).
3. Distinguish between provisions that are mandatory for taking maritime protection
measures and those which are merely indicative or optional for certain needs of
optimization of the resources employed.
4. Determine the conditions for issuing Declarations of Security when they are
required for the assessment of cyber risk in a ship/port interface operation or
ship-to-ship activity that may affect people, property or the environment.
5. Determine the procedures to be followed for the identification and reporting
of incidents, with a classification appropriate to the cyber risk, while allowing
for prompt notification to local law enforcement agencies, when the ship is in
Colombian territorial waters.
Since there is a pressing need to identify such risks in advance, the IMO sub-
sequently issued Circular 3 of 5 July 2017 [6], providing some recommendations
that serve as guidelines for the management of maritime cyber risks, especially with
regard to the controls that can be implemented by governments that are both in the
position of flag State and coastal State.
Afterwards, the IMO Maritime Safety Committee developed, on 11 March 2019,
the Maritime Industry Guidelines on Shipboard Cybersecurity in version 3 (MSC
101/4/1) [7]. These guidelines are considered necessary for port structures because
Cyber Security Vulnerabilities in Colombia’s Maritime Critical … 7

Fig. 1 Source prepared by the authors, based in [8]

between ships and ports, there is a principle established since the ISPS Code (ISPS)
making parity between the structural elements of risk management of a ship with the
elements contained in the port, or vice versa, mandatory. Because of this principle,
the guidelines on cyber security on board ships apply mutatis mutandis to ports. If
a State imposes certain cybersecurity conditions as a requirement for flagging in a
ship, these conditions will eventually be replicated in ports which the coastal State
must necessarily provide with the same conditions for the ships it expects to receive
in its ports.
In summary, the vulnerability from cyber-attacks is concentrated in the so-called
maritime critical infrastructure (MCI): port terminals, ships and their cargo, and
maritime control stations. The various infrastructures that are subject to the greatest
protection and defense care have also been called cyber critical infrastructures or
digital critical infrastructures (Fig. 1) [8].
From the controls that can be carried out by the maritime administrations of the
governments, the infrastructures can be supported by two classes of technologies:
information technologies (IT) and operation technologies (OT). The above distinc-
tion makes it possible to specify the conditions from which the type of threats and
vulnerabilities to MSI must be identified. Thus, for example, while the former (IT)
supports information systems for port operation that could generate errors that delay
or paralyze traffic, the latter could support automatic controls of gantry cranes with
the risk of generating accidents in the movement of cargo on the ship or within the
port.
A review of all the rules of domestic law in Colombia shows that there is currently
no regulation that precisely allows for greater control of maritime operations in its
jurisdictional waters in the face of cybernetic risks in its port facilities. This study
specifies how the vulnerabilities in Colombian port infrastructure are currently dealt
with in the face of possible cyber-attacks, with the aim of creating a regulation for
maritime activities that is more in line with the needs that arise from the use of
8 Y. B. G. Gamboa et al.

ICTs, so that the exchange of information can flow and so that the implementation
of protection measures against this type of attack is in line with the good maritime
practices encouraged by the IMO.

3 Methodology

In order to identify the vulnerabilities of Colombian ports, the main ports were
sampled, and in order of importance those located in the cities of Cartagena, Bue-
naventura, Barranquilla and Santa Marta. In each of the ports, the equipment directly
related to ICTs was identified, especially the control and cargo equipment of each
of the corporations that own the port operation. In the study, each port is evaluated
according to its greater or lower capacity to receive container ships and the flow
of its logistics operation in relation to the security systems that each port has. The
equipment of the port terminals in the sample registers common characteristics even
though they were built by different companies and operated by different corporations.
These common structural characteristics facilitated an analysis of their vulnerabili-
ties to cyber-attacks. Indeed, the characteristics of the equipment directly related to
ICTs have an architecture based mainly on PLC (Programmable Logic Controller)
devices, data packet transport protocols such as TCP (Transmission Control Proto-
col) and network protocols such as IP (Internet Protocol). These combinations make
the systems susceptible to affectation through cybernetic attacks (Fig. 2).
The analysis of vulnerabilities in the port facilities of the main ports included in
the sample is presented specifying the equipment with its characteristics obtained
through a survey applied to the respective port operators (Table 1).
The survey applied in 2019 revealed the results (Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5).

Fig. 2 Source prepared by the authors, based in [6]

Cyber Security Vulnerabilities in Colombia’s Maritime Critical … 9

Table 1 Sample analysis

Littoral City Responsible port operation company Acronym
Caribbean Sea Cartagena de Indias Sociedad portuaria regional de Cartagena SPRC
Pacific Ocean Buenaventura Sociedad portuaria de Buenaventura SPRBUN
Caribbean Sea Barranquilla Sociedad portuaria regional de SPRB
Barranquilla
Caribbean Sea Santa Marta Sociedad portuaria de Santa Marta SPSM

Table 2 Sociedad portuaria regional de Cartagena

SPRC
Equipment Availability (Yes/No) Total quantity and available
capacity
Harbour crane Yes 4 (50–70 ton) STS gantry cranes with
22-container span and twinlift
capacity for simultaneous
unloading of two 20 ft. containers
Gantry crane Yes 24 (6 stack up) STS gantry cranes with
22-container span and twinlift
capacity for simultaneous
unloading of two 20 ft. containers
Mobile cranes Yes 2 (100 ton) 100 ton capacity mobile cranes
Reach stacker Yes 14 (45)
RoRo tug with tráiler N/A
Grain elevator with packing N/A
machine
Trans strainer crane Yes 21 (40 ton)
Forklift Yes 20 (2, 5–7 ton)

Table 3 Sociedad portuaria regional de Buenaventura

SPRBUN
Equipment Availability (Yes/No) Total quantity and available
capacity
Harbour crane Yes 10 PP + 2 SPP In use
Gantry crane Yes 6 (40–62 MT) Post-Panamaz shore rails
Mobile cranes Yes 3-PP + 1 SPP Multipurpose mobile crane
Reach stacker Yes 16 (40 and 30 MT) In use
RoRo tug with tráiler No N/A N/A
Grain elevator with packing Yes Siwertel: 700 ton/h Suction discharge
machine Vigan: 300 ton/h
Buhler: 300 ton/h
Trans strainer crane Yes 22 (60 MT) To deliver and receive
containers, tyre crane
Forklift Yes 10 16 and 22 ton forklift
10 Y. B. G. Gamboa et al.

Table 4 Sociedad portuaria de Barranquilla

SPRB
Equipment Availability Total quantity and available
(Yes/No) capacity
Harbour crane Yes 2 (100 ton)
Gantry crane Yes 3–30 ton
Mobile cranes Yes 124 ton 2 Liebherr LHM 420
Reach stacker Yes 7–18 ton 17 reach stacker and 3 straddle
carriers container handling
RoRo tug master (W/trailer) No N/A N/A
Grain elevator with packing Yes 280 ton/h 1
machine
Trans strainer crane No N/A N/A
Forklift Yes Up to 45 ton 13

Table 5 Sociedad portuaria de Santa Marta

SPSM
Equipment Availability Total quantity and available
(Yes/No) capacity
Harbour crane Yes 2 (3–15 MT) Electrical
Gantry crane for containers Yes 4 RTG 6 + 1
Mobile cranes Yes 150 MT N/A
Reach stacker Yes 45 MT N/A
RoRo tug master (W/trailer) N/A N/A N/A
Lifting crane w/bagging machines Yes 1 (180 ton/h) Suction equipment
1 (450 ton/h)
Grúa trans strainer No N/A N/A
Forklift Yes 29 6 electrical

Regarding the systems for the management and control of cargo and for security
in the port, the survey also provided the results (Table 6).
On the other hand, the Colombian Maritime Authority exercises traffic control
through the ports by means of a system that allows the coordination of reaction
operations in the event of situations that may affect the security of the ports, and under
the action of the units of the National Navy Coast Guard. The system is known as
SICTVM (Integrated System for Traffic Control and Maritime Surveillance), which
interconnects sensors, servers and administration consoles [9].
The architecture of this system employs RADAR, ECDIS, GPS and AIS inform-
ing the servers and computers used for administration, and communicating through
Cyber Security Vulnerabilities in Colombia’s Maritime Critical … 11

Table 6 Management and control of cargo at the port versus existing security technological tools
at the port
Systems for management and control of cargo at the Technological implements of security at
port the port
SPRC It has the capacity to simultaneously It has state-of-the-art technology to
receive up to five Neo-panamax type protect and safeguard cargo, motor
vessels because it has the latest versions vessels, terminals, operation equipment
of systematized technology such as an and users, through information systems
information management system for that alert to potential risks that arise in
port management which, together with the development of port operations. The
the equipment described in Fig. 1, following security controls are in place:
allows a constant flow in the logistics 1. Access control through intelligent
operation chain identification credentials
2. Closed-circuit television (CCTV)
3. High-tech scanners to verify the
content of containers entering or
leaving the port
SPRBUN Logistical capacity relies on seasonal There is a coordination of the security
restrictions due to climatic conditions, teams employed with a high standard,
especially rainfall, occasional sediment through an integrated electronic security
from river mouths in the bay, and high system, which allows to provide the
traffic by artisanal fishers. It also shipowners, logistic agencies and
depends on the timely arrival of cargo workers’ personnel, security during the
collection vehicles, which make land development of any procedure inside
trips from the centre of the country. The the port. The following systems are
teams mentioned in the figure carry out available and regularly used:
the maritime operations inside the port 1. Biometric readers for access control
facility to the facilities
2. Full and half body swivel mounts
3. Vehicle access points, all controlled
by a server containing detailed data on
the port population
4. Closed-circuit TV
5. Special system to monitor the
internal navigation channel under any
visibility condition, which includes an
average recording time of 75 days
SPRB It is equipped with an information The latest technology systems used in
management system for port the port include non-intrusive X-ray
management connected to the inspection equipment, which allows the
equipment mentioned in the figure detection of explosive and narcotic
chemicals on board containers entering
or leaving the port terminal
SPSM The equipment indicated in the figure The logistics operation chains are
has been the result of recent protected by the following elements:
modernization and technification Human heat detection cameras
processes of the port Closed-circuit TV
Non-intrusive X-ray inspection
equipment, which allows the detection
of chemical, explosive and narcotic
substances on board containers entering
and/or leaving port facilities
12 Y. B. G. Gamboa et al.

commercial protocols, due to this they can be affected through cyberspace, for exam-
ple, with a cyber-attack that affects the control of ship traffic, completely paralyz-
ing the port, an access channel or trigger discharges of pollutants into the marine
environment.
The towers of the maritime traffic control stations located in each port regulate the
traffic in and out of national ports. The towers transmit information to the National
Navy units that carry out operations to ensure the safety and security of ships entering
and/or leaving the port. In the event of a cyber-attack, errors would result in accidents
within the port access channels. With the intrusion, the manipulation and/or degrada-
tion of the security systems controlled by the Coast Guard would facilitate criminal
activities such as drug trafficking, smuggling and human trafficking. It could also
affect the automatic control of weapons on board the National Navy’s units afloat
[9].
Because of existing vulnerabilities, the Joint Cybernetic Command of the Gen-
eral Command of the Colombian Military Forces adopted a National Protection and
Defense Plan for Colombia’s Critical Cybernetic Infrastructure [10]. The Plan aims
to develop an information resilience capacity through five strategic lines, tending
to strengthen the cyber security of MSIs throughout the country: Identify, Protect,
Detect, Respond and Recover.3 The Plan includes the implementation of guidelines,
certification and awareness programs, the strengthening of response capacities and
the recovery from threats directed from the National Protection Centre. However,
although the Plan does not contradict the proposals of the guide on cybersecurity
on board ships, the guide is more specific, especially in what it establishes as strate-
gic circular phases of cyber risk management: identify threats, identify vulnera-
bilities, assess risk exposure, develop protection and detection measures, establish
contingency plans, respond to recover from cyber security incidents [11].

4 Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion of Results

So far, there are no guidelines or investment plans for equipment in Colombian

port terminals that would make it possible to sufficiently deal with the risks arising
from cyber-attacks and with the clear purpose of ensuring and generating protection
and resilience for critical infrastructure. In fact, although the main ports have the
latest technological versions of security tools, these only exist to address the need

3 The aspects contained in the proposal, seek to be part of the aspects to require vessels to make
use of the right of innocent passage in Colombian territorial waters, in a state of normal navigation.
Its scope is given for the critical infrastructure of ships with components of OT/IT or hybrids and
are based on the guidelines of the National Center for Critical Infrastructure Protection of Spain
CNPIC, the twenty critical security controls SANS and the five functions of the NIST framework
“Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity”, which are Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond and
Recover, which is also adopted by the Joint Cybernetic Command of the General Command of the
Military Forces of Colombia, in the first version of the publication of the National Plan of Protection
and Defense for the Critical Cybernetic Infrastructure of Colombia.
Cyber Security Vulnerabilities in Colombia’s Maritime Critical … 13

to prevent unauthorized physical intrusions into facilities and ships, by people or

goods, but there are no equipment or protocols for identifying virtual or computerized
intrusions.
Observing the assessment conducted in 2017 by the London company IHS Fair-
play4 through a survey in which 284 people from the maritime sector participated,
such measurement showed that the cyber-attacks originated both on board the ships
and in the port facilities due to the lack of training and awareness of the crew, as well
as a culture that tolerates the indiscriminate use of personal electronic devices at work
by connecting the ship’s systems or the port terminal facility, to upload or download
information or to take power for their batteries, activities that could release malware.
Such practices are still observed among personnel working in port facilities.
Furthermore, attention must be drawn to the fact that in Colombia there are port
operators, who are mostly companies that generate profits for the markets and private
capital. From this fact, it can be seen that for port operators there are no corporate and
organizational guidelines to resolve situations arising from the lack of exchange of
information on vulnerabilities among port operators in the face of cyber-attacks, as
an act of necessary solidarity, because they contradict the business reserve policies
of each of these operators: this means that companies cannot manage to protect
themselves proactively because by using the software in common use throughout the
world, it facilitates that hackers improve their sophistication skills and reuse more
often the methods of attacking the various port operators because, by behaving in
isolation from each other’s risks and threats, they do not carry out the appropriate
prior warnings to adopt preventive measures [11].

5 Conclusions

Based on the five main ports studied and referenced at the national level, it was possi-
ble to determine that the use of IT/OT systems for loading and unloading operations
may be subject to a cyber-attack in terms of operating and cargo control equipment.
Therefore, the concept of cybersecurity within the framework of the relationship
between maritime authorities and stakeholders in the management and control of
national maritime security is a point to be included within the regulation and control
of maritime activity.
E The Colombian maritime sector has not fully implemented the recommendations
and guidelines of the IMO to reduce maritime cyber risk, as it is not aware of any
type of Plan, program and/or effort that the Colombian Maritime Authority has
managed to create guidelines to strengthen a culture of cyber risk awareness in the
critical infrastructure of the maritime sector. There is no known IMO orientation,

4A company that owns the largest maritime databases in the world, developed from the Lloyd’s
Register of Ships, which has been published continuously since 1764. It has extensive databases
of ships, ship movement, casualties, ownership, ports and news, as well as research and consulting
services.
14 Y. B. G. Gamboa et al.

recommendation or guideline implemented by the Colombian Maritime Authority

for the management of maritime cybernetic risk caused by foreign flag vessels that
exercise the right of ‘Innocent Passage’ in the Colombian Territorial Sea and that
may affect peace, proper order and State security.
The resilience of MSIs will be able to be limited not only to the five strategic
lines set out by the CCOC, but also to the best conditions for maritime risk manage-
ment, guided by more specific strategic phases such as those set out in the Guide for
Ships on Board applied mutatis mutandis to port structures, which are as follows:
identify attacks, identify vulnerabilities, assess risk exposure, develop protection
and detection measures, establish contingency plans, response and recovery from
cyber security incidents. These phases also include the implementation of guide-
lines, certification and awareness-raising programs; the strengthening of response
and recovery capacities in the face of threats through the creation of the National
Protection Centre, aspects that are contained in the CCOC’s recommendations; Of
course, it is necessary to generate regulations that allow the management of digital
security in the threats that can be generated from ships that make use of the right of
innocent passage from the Colombian territorial sea. The management of cybernetic
risks for the Colombian maritime sector constitutes an approximation and reference
parameter to build the agenda of maritime cyber security in terms of the exercise of
the right of innocent passage of foreign ships through Colombian territorial waters
and their interactions with port facilities and terminals.

References

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(2018)
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage:
Regulations for the Security
of the Coastal State

Fabián Ramírez-Cabrales and José Alejandro Machado Jiménez

Abstract This research identifies the actors, interests, and situations involved in
the development of cybernetic operations that can affect the peace, good order, and
security of the coastal State in its territorial sea. Particularly, special emphasis is
placed on the right of innocent passage of foreign ships navigating in such space.
Each of the activities of this legal concept is studied in order to determine whether or
not the passage complies with the condition of innocence and its close relationship
with the use of cyberspace for such purposes. Fifteen interests and their implications
for security are recorded and analyzed from the perspective of cyberspace. The
study concludes that in the absence of an international regime for the governance
of cyberspace and the legal obsolescence of customary international law to regulate
activities related to innocent passage, it recommends that States should empower
themselves with laws and regulations to ensure their security in cyberspace.

Keywords Cyberspace · Innocent passage · Ships · Security · State · Cyber-attack

1 Introduction

National Defense is a responsibility of the State to guarantee national independence

and the stability of institutions and its main purpose is to preserve sovereignty. Cur-
rently, this constitutional mandate has evolved towards the incorporation of new
concepts in the field of security. New information and communication technologies
have generated a challenge to national security [1]. These challenges are associated
with digital convergence. Digital convergence is the result of a series of innovations

F. Ramírez-Cabrales (B) · J. A. Machado Jiménez

Armada de Colombia, Carrera 10 #26-27 Piso 4, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
J. A. Machado Jiménez
e-mail: [email protected]
Universidad Libre, Pie de la Popa Calle Real No 20-177, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 17
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_2
18 F. Ramírez-Cabrales and J. A. Machado Jiménez

that generate an increasingly interconnected world of knowledge, documents, data,

and information converging in real-time.
Activities such as international trade and finance, social networking, and e-
government are key elements for the operation of critical infrastructure services. The
uses of these have raised a range of problems in terms of the security and defense
of States [2]. It can affect international relations; it can be a tool or means for the
achievement of national interests or a resource for peace or war. In this regard, States
have found in cybernetic operations a means or tool to influence other States, in a
disruptive manner, or through degradation or espionage through cyberspace [3].
Cyberspace is a concept under construction that dates back to the last century.
Nowadays, several definitions can be identified. Cyberspace is an amorphous space
that does not occupy a certain physical or geographical location [4]. The vast majority
of definitions circulating about cyberspace agree that the core of cyberspace is com-
posed of globally interconnected hardware, software, and data networks along with
human interaction with those networks [5]. The importance of this space lies in the
processing of information. In the so-called cybersociety [6], the assumption is that
information by itself has a value capable of generating power (political, economic,
social, etc.) and appears as a strategic asset of countries [7]. Consequently, threat,
attack, and cyber conflict are becoming consolidated as alternatives to the traditional
modalities of the use of force and armed conflict. “All nations have vulnerabilities
that can be exploited in and through cyberspace” [8].
In international shipping, computer and operational technology on board ships
are increasingly networked, and more often connected to the Internet. The increas-
ing complexity of ships and their connection to services provided from land-based
networks via the Internet means that on-board systems are increasingly exposed to
cyber-attacks. In this perspective, these systems can be vulnerable by being used as
a means to launch a cyber-attack, or be affected by a cyber-attack that is carried out.
This represents a risk to the safety of vessels and the coastal State in the territorial
sea. In particular, the greatest vulnerability is identified with unauthorized access
and malicious attacks on ships’ systems and networks. According to the Interna-
tional Maritime Organization, the security, environmental and trade consequences
of not being prepared for a cyber-incident can be considerable [9].
In the response to this threat, the IMO, the United Nations specialized agency
responsible for the safety and security of navigation and the prevention of marine
pollution from ships, considered that measures should be developed to enhance
maritime security. Resolution MSC.428(98): “Management of Maritime Cyber-Risk
in Safety Management Systems” States that approved safety management systems
(SMS) should take into consideration the management of cyber-risk in accordance
with the objectives and functional requirements of the International Safety Manage-
ment (Code ISM). MSC-FAL.1/Circ.3: “Guidelines on maritime cyber-risk manage-
ment” provides high-level recommendations on maritime cyber-risk management
to safeguard maritime transport from current and emerging cyber-threats and vul-
nerabilities. The Industry guidelines provide instructions on how to comply with
resolution MSC.428(98) at the first annual verification of the shipping company’s
compliance document after January 1, 2021. The objective of maritime cyber-risk
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage: Regulations for the Security … 19

management is to contribute to the safety and security of maritime transport which

is operationally resilient to cyber-risks [10, 11].
This approach allows the identification of cyber-threats and vulnerabilities on
board ships. The IMO does not deal with or address the regulation of cyberspace.
This ratifies that international society and States, as those responsible for its legal
regulation, have not fully appreciated its nature, nor its effects on other physical
spaces [12], nor its delimitation, nor its legal regime [13]. This poses a challenge to
the legal regime of the territorial sea. While customary international law recognizes
sovereignty and jurisdiction over the territorial sea and the area of airspace lying on
the surface of that sea within 12 miles of the baselines of the continental or island
territory, it has not incorporated the dimension of cyberspace and its effects on the
security of the coastal State.
This legal gap creates the need to identify the actors, interests, and situations
involved in the development of cybernetic operations that can affect the peace and
good order of the coastal State. Specifically, with regard to the right of innocent
passage of foreign ships through the territorial sea. This is in order to raise the need
to condition the use of cyberspace to the purposes and aims of the State that allow
to guarantee sovereignty, security, and its maritime protection.
To this end, this paper, a product of the research project MINCIENCIAS #64905
for the execution of R + D + i projects of the Colombian Navy, entitled “Regulation
of the right to the innocent passage of foreign ships through the Colombian territorial
sea: a normative proposal”, aims to identify the threats that cyberspace poses to the
peace and security of the coastal State during the exercise of its duties. The Committee
is concerned about the lack of transparency of innocent passage in the territorial sea
and the need to include cyberspace in the regulation of this passage.
Within that framework, the paper has been divided into five parts. First, the intro-
ductory aspects related to the theoretical and objective framework of the research.
The second part describes the methodology used and the phases developed within
the framework of the research project. The third part explains the content and scope
of the figure of the right of innocent passage, highlighting the normative aspects that
regulate this right and the situations that can transcend into cyberspace. The fourth
part identifies the types of cybernetic operations. In this section, special emphasis is
placed on the development of cybernetic operations linked to the military and mer-
chant navy field. It highlights the threats that can originate in cyberspace, the risks
and actors that can motivate actions to the detriment of the security of the coastal
State in its territorial sea, motivating its discussion.
Finally, the last part highlights the conclusions related to cyberspace and its impact
on the maintenance of peace and security of the coastal State in the territorial sea. In
this last section, final considerations will be raised without being strictly conclusive
given the complexity and technological progress of the means used in cyberspace.
20 F. Ramírez-Cabrales and J. A. Machado Jiménez

2 Methodology

It was considered necessary for this study to first analyze the concepts, scope, and
definitions of cyberspace and the right to the innocent passage of foreign ships in the
territorial sea. Once the theoretical framework of this proposal had been identified,
each of the situations in which the passage of a foreign vessel would be considered to
be detrimental to the peace, good order, or security of the coastal State was analyzed.
To this end, 15 interests and the actors that motivate a behavior or action that according
to the objective can be considered an undesirable act for the security of the State in
its territorial sea were identified. Specifically, this phase analyses the connection
between the security of international maritime traffic and the use of cyberspace
for civil or military purposes. The results obtained in this phase allowed partial
conclusions to be drawn because of the constant evolution of this complex problem
associated with the use of cyberspace and its relationship with the territorial sea to
regulate the activity of innocent passage by foreign ships.

3 Innocent Passage Through the Territorial Sea

The increase in international maritime trade by sea and the digital economy, as well
as the projection of new routes for international navigation, require the strengthening
and modernization of national legislation to regulate the right of innocent passage of
foreign vessels through the territorial sea, including island territories. The right of
innocent passage may be exercised on condition that it does not disturb the peace,
order or security of the State. Innocent Passage means the act of sailing through the
territorial sea for the purpose of crossing that sea without entering the internal waters
and without making a stopover or going into or out of internal waters, or calling at
a port facility, or leaving it.
The passage of a foreign vessel shall be deemed to be prejudicial to the peace,
good order, or security of the State if that vessel infringes the sovereignty, territorial
integrity, or political independence of the State. In this regard, customary interna-
tional law compiles a list of activities that are deemed to be prejudicial to the peace,
good order or security of the coastal State and that result in the passage of a foreign
vessel being not innocent.
Under customary international law, the passage of a foreign vessel shall be deemed
to be prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State if that vessel
engages in any of the following activities in the territorial sea: (a) Any threat or
use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of
the coastal State or in any other manner violating the principles of international law
embodied in the Charter of the United Nations; (b) Any exercise or practice with
weapons of any kind; (c) Any act aimed at obtaining information to the detriment
of the defense or security of the coastal State; (d) Any act of propaganda aimed at
undermining the defense or security of the coastal State; (e) The launching, receiving
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage: Regulations for the Security … 21

or loading of aircraft; (f) The launching, receiving or loading of military devices; (g)
The embarkation or disembarkation of any product, currency or person in contraven-
tion of the customs, tax, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations of the coastal
State; (h) Any act of intentional and serious pollution contrary to this Convention; (i)
Any fishing activities; (j) The conduct of research or hydrographic surveys; (k) Any
act aimed at disrupting the communication systems or any other services or facilities
of the coastal State; (l) Any other activity not directly related to the passage.
This diversity of activities can guide the State’s action in its national interest to
reduce the margin of uncertainty in estimating the harmlessness or otherwise of the
passage. Furthermore, Hakapää and Molenaar [14] argue that the list is not absolute
because of paragraph (l) which refers to any other activities not related to innocent
passage. Therefore, the coastal State may adopt, in accordance with customary inter-
national law, laws and regulations concerning innocent passage through the territorial
sea on some or all of the following matters: (a) The safety of navigation and regula-
tion of maritime traffic; (b) The protection of aids to navigation and other services
and facilities; (c) The protection of cables and pipelines; (d) The conservation of the
living resources of the sea; (e) The prevention of violations of its fisheries laws and
regulations; (f) The preservation of its environment and the prevention, reduction and
control of pollution thereof; (g) Marine scientific research and hydrographic surveys;
(h) The prevention of violations of its customs, immigration, and sanitary laws and
regulations.
Currently, each of these activities can be said to be embedded in a cyber-
environment that links States, organizations, users, networks, devices, all types of
software, processes, stored or circulating information, applications, services and sys-
tems that are directly or indirectly connected to networks [15]. According to Bejarano
[16], the actors involved (including States, businesses, organizations, groups or indi-
viduals) will compete to control it. This inevitably leads to conflicts in cyberspace.
Cyber conflict is a confrontation between two or more parties, and at least one of
these parties will resort to cyber-attacks to attack the other. The context will differ
from the nature and objectives of the actors. Therefore, the territorial sea and the
regulation of the innocent passage of ships do not escape the threat of cyberspace as
a means of affecting the peace and security of the coastal State.

4 Results and Discussion

Cybernetic operations can be classified as offensive or defensive. They can be carried

out through two mechanisms: physical ones, such as computers, modems or cables,
and those mechanisms that only work in cyberspace, such as computer programs or
viruses [17].
At the military cybernetic operations level, two challenges arise:
sovereignty/jurisdiction, attribution/responsibility [18]. In the area of sovereignty,
the principle of the sovereign equality of States is ratified. However, sovereignty is
intimately linked to the existence of physical space, which is why its application in
22 F. Ramírez-Cabrales and J. A. Machado Jiménez

cyberspace is not so clear. It is therefore impossible for it to be appropriated and for a

State to exercise sovereignty [4–19]. However, at the cybernetic infrastructures level
and on any activity related to these infrastructures, the State exercises sovereignty
since they are within its territory [5].
In terms of jurisdiction, the State exercises jurisdiction over activities taking place
in cyberspace, such as the commission of cybercrimes. However, States do not have
sufficient capacity to deter, prevent or detect unwanted activity occurring on their
networks. This makes it difficult to apply the principle of State responsibility [20].
One of the events observed is the case of ransomware NotPetya, which although
it started as a specific attack on Ukraine, managed to expand rapidly to systems
throughout Europe and other sectors of the world. An example of its consequences
was the collateral damage to the transport company Maersk. This large-scale cyber-
attack was attributed by Britain to Russia, in an offensive to affect Ukraine.
Despite this complaint being filed, there is no public evidence of Russia’s par-
ticipation in this attack. On this matter, the Tallinn Manual provides: “A State shall
not permit the cybernetic infrastructure located in its territory or under exclusive
government control to be used to carry out acts that illegitimately affect the rights of
other States” [22].
Therefore, this manual suggests that, despite the difficulties, States have an obli-
gation to take all appropriate measures to prevent the rights of third States from
being affected. This applies to the exercise of sovereignty of the coastal State over
the territorial sea and the need to ensure that the passage of foreign vessels over this
space is not altered by acts affecting the rights of the flag State.
In this study, 15 interests were identified, described in Table 1, which may cause
conflict situations in the development of cybernetic operations harmful to the peace
and security of the Coastal State during the passage of foreign ships through the
territorial sea. It should be noted that the main actor, although not the only one, is
the State as the guarantor of national security and its interests in cyberspace. Each
of these describes at least one situation whose aim is to affect the peace and security
of the coastal State.
It is clear that in matters of sovereignty, States cannot dominate cyberspace, but
rather share it. According to Mr. Vice Admiral Fernandez (2013) [23], there can be
no such thing as Cyberspace Domain as there is no such thing as Sea Domain. In
cyberspace, human interaction uses networks to obtain superiority in information
by denying it to the adversary. It was also identified that within these networks,
cybernetic networks for defense subsist. The purpose of these networks is to analyze
the characteristics of enemy viruses and other types of possible attacks in an attempt
to eliminate them.
As for weapons in cyberspace, viruses or malware, they do not produce destruction
but rather interruption of functions. They are therefore considered to be weapons of
mass disruption.
In communications, naval operations are prone to cyber-attacks. In particular,
command and control and communications systems at the strategic and opera-
tional levels are vulnerable to cyber-attack. Networked cyber operations, a concept
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage: Regulations for the Security … 23

Table 1 Actors, interests and objectives

Space Concerns Actor Objective
C Sovereignty State Denying the dominance of information
Y Weapons Organizations Launching malicious software
B Hackers
E Communications Blocking of telecommunications systems
R Information Spying through reconnaissance satellites
S Infrastructure Damage to critical infrastructure
P
A Services Attacking maritime traffic and control systems
C Devices Launching remote military attacks Maritime
E autonomous surface ship
Aircraft Use cybernetic channel-controlled unmanned
aircraft systems
Fishing Altering identification systems (AIS)
Hydrography Obtain information for the production of nautical
charts
Detect location of underwater minerals, marine
ecosystems, shipwrecked species
Identify updated routes
Research Acquiring knowledge by infiltrating information
systems and networks
Contamination Cause environmental damage by attacking cargo
and dangerous goods control systems
Advertising States/ Sponsor cyber-attacks
Organizations Cause fear in networks
Activists Destroy data
Terrorists
Products Offenders Fraudulent freight forwarding
Others Opportunists Breaking cybersecurity defenses
Make a profit
Source Prepared by the authors, based in [9]

employed by NATO, are used primarily to degrade or deceive an adversary’s com-

mand and control systems, nullifying their ability to make effective decisions while
protecting one’s own and friendly command and control systems.
Equally, merchant marine operations and navigational resources on board ships are
not exempt from a cyber-attack during their innocent passage through the territorial
sea. Another relevant aspect in this matter is the low earth orbit reconnaissance
satellites, which provide high-resolution photographs fundamental in the planning
of naval operations.
The control and launching of military devices from anywhere in the world make
it difficult to identify the origin of the attack and consequently hinders the right to
legitimate defense of the State and its critical infrastructure. It also affects the security
of international maritime traffic passing through the territorial sea. Consequently, this
type of act can affect the national economy.
24 F. Ramírez-Cabrales and J. A. Machado Jiménez

Regarding the hydrography, scientific research, and fisheries, it is identified that

databases and information resources on these matters can be infiltrated in order to
steal information of national interest related to the geographical characteristics of the
environment and the type of resources that lie in the territorial sea. In the same line,
fisheries use automatic identification systems known as AIS. In this regard, criminals
can access AIS global information systems to know the location of vessels. This is
in order to launch viruses that hinder the existing coordination between the multiple
naval units that operate command and control networks and logistics networks.
Furthermore, it is noted that pollution of the marine environment can be induced
and controlled by unauthorized access to loading and transport systems of dangerous
substances on board ships. This can lead to unwanted natural disasters and irreversible
damage to the territorial sea and its strategic ecosystems.
On the other hand, it is interesting to broadcast propaganda for political purposes
or to the detriment of the State’s national interests. Cyberspace can become a platform
for media attention induced by State-sponsored organizations and activists interested
in affecting the reputation of the State. Similarly, terrorists can generate fear in
networks for political gain.
As far as products are concerned, criminals can alter cargo records in a fraudulent
manner. At the same time, they may be interested in commercial espionage to sell
information and data. In the same vein, there are opportunists who can take advantage
of cyberspace to breach cybersecurity systems in critical infrastructures for profit.
Finally, there are no specific international instruments to regulate activities that
may be considered harmful to the peace and security of the coastal State with regard
to the activity of the right of innocent passage of foreign vessels through the territorial
sea. In this regard, customary international law is limited exclusively to identifying
activities that may affect the security of the State in that maritime space. At the
same time, it empowers it to issue laws and regulations concerning innocent passage
through the territorial sea.
In general, there are mechanisms and documents that international society has
encouraged to guide the legal actions of States. First, the International Maritime
Organization, through the Committee on Safety of Navigation, has issued guidelines
and circulars to ensure cyber security on board ships, and the deadline for compli-
ance by the shipping company on January 1, 2021. Additionally, the literature records
initiatives such as the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) Cybercrime
Legislation Toolkit seeks to provide a framework for States to create effective leg-
islation to address these crimes. Others such as the Commonwealth Model Law on
Cybercrime, which like the Budapest Convention, contains provisions on criminal,
procedural, and international cooperation material [24].
In addition, the Tallinn Manual on the International Law of Cyber Warfare is
noteworthy. This document contains 95 rules, grouped into two parts: The Security
of Cyberspace in International Law, and The International Law of Cyber Conflict.
This is articulated throughout seven chapters. Among its objectives are contents
on international law applied to cyberspace and the Net. With the aim of achieving
consensus among States for an understanding of the application of resources in the
framework of cyber defense and cybersecurity. It primarily highlights their intention
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage: Regulations for the Security … 25

Table 2 Criteria for determining cyber operations harmful to the security of the coastal State in its
territorial sea
Criteria Determination Classification
Severity Cause physical damage Harmful
Immediacy Produce imminent damage Harmful
Directness Associate illegal behaviors Harmful
Invasiveness Interfere State interests Harmful
Measurability of effects Generate effects similar to the use of force Harmful
Military nature Articulate military and cyber operations Harmful
State participation Establish links between a State and cyber operations Harmful
Alleged legality Articulate military and cyber operations Harmful
Source Prepared by the authors, based in [18]

to build an ethical consensus in this field and to mark the limits of what has been
understood in this area as cyberwar, armed aggression, and the use of force [25].
In this context, the question that arises for international law is how it is determined
whether a cyber-operation can constitute a threat to the peace and security of the
coastal State during the innocent passage of foreign ships through the territorial sea.
For this purpose, the analysis model proposed by Schmitt [26] was considered. This
author proposes guidelines that allow States to identify tools to determine if a cyber-
operation has reached the parameters to be considered a use of force. This criterion
has been adopted by the Tallinn Manual in rule 11.
This approach is useful because it allows to define when there is a use of illicit force
in the field of cyber operations. The criteria to determine whether the foreseeable
consequences of such an activity can affect the peace and security of the coastal State
in its territorial sea respond to six factors indicated in Table 2.
These factors are not absolute. This, taking into account the characteristics of this
space, particularly its intangibility, makes its appropriation impossible and as a result
makes it impossible for a State to exercise sovereignty in this area [27]. However,
despite the fact that the State does not have sovereignty over cyberspace per se, it
does have sovereignty over cyber infrastructure and over any activity that is related
to these infrastructures, since these are over its territory. Therefore, these criteria
constitute a first approximation to establish the guidelines that contribute to regulate
the use of cyberspace to guarantee the security of the coastal State in its territorial
sea and the activities associated with the right of innocent passage.

5 Conclusions

The maintenance of the peace and security of the coastal State and the advancement
of new information technologies require a reconsideration of the use of cyberspace
and its impact on activities related to the right of innocent passage of foreign vessels
26 F. Ramírez-Cabrales and J. A. Machado Jiménez

over the territorial sea. This is in accordance with the fact that customary international
law in no waypoints to the fifth element called cyberspace. Therefore, international
law should review the issue of sovereignty and the jurisdiction applied to cyberspace.
These elements are essential when determining the powers of the State to regulate
cyber operations linked to the right to innocent passage through the territorial sea.
Regarding sovereignty, it is demonstrated that, despite the impossibility of exer-
cising unilateral domination of cyberspace, this does not preclude a State from exer-
cising its authority in this area. Specifically, at least 15 national interests associated
with the innocent passage of ships and their interactions with cyber operations that
jeopardize the security of the coastal State were identified. Therefore, the imminent
need to regulate these activities from the sovereign power of the State is inferred. For
this purpose, international organizations, conventions, manuals, and initiatives that
study cybercrime issues and their treatment from the judicial sphere were registered.
These sources of law constitute inputs for the regulation of activities associated with
the innocent passage and their interaction with cyber operations. In this regard, the
Tallinn Manual was highlighted as a non-binding academic document that describes
how to interpret international law in the context of cyber operations and cyber war-
fare. This manual provides six criteria, not exhaustive. Under these guidelines, the
State can evaluate and consider the hostile behaviors of various actors who intend to
generate cyber-attacks. Therefore, the document is a valuable contribution that can
influence the approaches and positions of States and organizations on how to deal
with this problem.
As far as the regulation of the innocent passage is concerned, the document
constitutes a reference of obligatory consultation to determine the legal regime of
cyberspace—v. g. if it is a space that can be appropriated or if a particular legal
regime is established to determine State competences both on the space itself con-
sidered and on the activities related to the innocent passage. In this way, it will be
feasible to determine the responsibility of the State regarding the prosecution of
criminal activities that take place in cyberspace.
However, it should be noted that the regulation of innocent passage focuses exclu-
sively on the activities of ships as a factor of instability for the security of the coastal
State. This indicates that the international regime of maritime spaces in terms of
regulating the right of innocent passage of ships does not respond to the interests
and situations of conflict that may originate in cyberspace. This implies the need
to seek an international consensus on the part of States in order to establish limits
to the actions and interests of this new scenario. However, the rational condition of
States in guaranteeing their survival in the international environment and maintain-
ing the power of information delegitimizes any intention to create an international
regime for the governance of cyberspace. Consequently, the trend is for each State
in its sovereign capacity to be concerned with its own security and to issue laws
and regulations that will make it possible to identify the types of activities that vio-
late national sovereignty in controlling the security of international maritime traffic
in the territorial sea and its undeniable relationship to the use and exploitation of
cyberspace for the maintenance of national interests.
Cyberspace and Innocent Passage: Regulations for the Security … 27

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Security Versus Usability
in E-Government: Insights
from the Literature

Fernando Huamán Monzón, Manuel Tupia, and Mariuxi Bruzza

Abstract Most governments establish regulations for the development of digital

e-government services, aimed at improving the citizen’s experience and seeking to
protect the information handled by those services. The problem is that these regu-
lations do not contemplate a balance between information security and usability of
web and mobile services; being that many times, both aspects are ignored in software
design considerations. Achieving this balance serves as a component to measure the
level of maturity of e-government services, so identifying that both elements are
included in the development of web and mobile services is essential to guarantee
the success of the joint implementation of e-government and compliance with the
aforementioned regulations. In the present study, the different models for measuring
the level of balance between safety and usability have been revisited as a review of
the state-of-the-art. For this reason, the principles of PICO focused on the Popula-
tion, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcomes have been used. The objective of the
research is to identify those models that really take stock of both elements, or if they
are only ad hoc efforts at the time of making specific developments of e-government
applications.

Keywords E-government · Information security · Usability · Maturity level model

F. H. Monzón · M. Tupia (B)

Department of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Av. Universitaria 1801, San
Miguel, Lima, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
F. H. Monzón
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Bruzza
Universidad Laica “Eloy Alfaro” de Manabí, Ciudadela Universitaria S/N, Manta, Manabí,
Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 29
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_3
30 F. H. Monzón et al.

1 Introduction

At present, many countries are implementing a series of electronic government ser-

vices at different levels (country, department, municipality) [1]. One of the most
challenging hurdles faced by the electronic government implementation projects is
supplying a proper level of information security [2] to such a degree that now this is
considered a crucial factor to reach an advanced level in electronic government [3].
Usability is seen as a catalytic and success factor for the electronic government;
it is even related to the population and its per capita income [4]. Periodic evaluations
of usability are conducted for the implementation projects of electronic government,
whereas the inclusion of other technical aspects (such as the infrastructure, terminals,
suppliers, etc.) and social ones (social state, demographic parameters, etc.) is under
evaluation [5]. That is the reason why several authors claim that usability and security
must be both considered when designing new information technology [6–8].
This paper is organized as follows: Sect. 2 introduces a brief description of con-
cepts, the pillar of this research: security, usability, and electronic government; Sect. 3
deals with PICOC based systematic review process and shows the state-of-the-art
results in a summarized and organized manner; Sect. 4 introduces the discussions on
these results; Sect. 5 provides conclusions and future work based on the review.

2 Background on Security and Usability in the Electronic

Government

The electronic government is defined as the adoption of ICTs in the public adminis-
tration structures such as channels interconnecting and interacting with organizations
and people through webs, electronic mail, mobile applications, intranet, extranet, etc.
[9]. A similar concept is established by the Organization of American States (OAS),
including the objective of the technology used by the government, i.e., qualitatively
improving services and information available to citizens, increasing the efficiency
and efficacy of the public managements and improving substantively transparency
of the public sector and citizens participation [10].
Furthermore, information security is defined as the set of processes and activities
allowing maintaining information assets (part of an organization) free of dangers
and hazards due to incidents or attacks [11]. Today information (physical, printed,
digital) has become a key resource for organizations [12]. The concept of security
has also been applied to information, with information security being defined as the
preservation of confidentiality, integrity, and availability of information [13].
Usability is the characteristic of systems that is known as “the degree in which a
product may be used by specific users to achieve specific objectives in a context of
specific use” [14]. It is also established as an attribute in terms of software quality,
which assesses how easy to use user interfaces may be. Usability is defined in terms
Security Versus Usability in E-Government: Insights from … 31

of five attributes: learning, efficiency memory, prevention of errors, and subjective

satisfaction [15].
Today, usability and information security are recognized as a requirement in the
electronic government services [16, 17]. They are also considered success factors for
the services design [18], as well as the implementation of the electronic government
services [19–22].

3 State-of-the-Art Systematic Review

Databases to be used for the systematic review are the following: SCOPUS, ACM,
IEEE, and Springer. Table 1 shows PICOC criteria [23] that can be used in the
systematic review.
The comparison criterion is not applicable because the systematic review purpose
is to evidence the main progress in researches, and not compare such results.

3.1 Research Questions

The objective of this research is to conduct a mapping of literature in which

researchers have related information security to usability in electronic government
services. This leads to the following research questions. Table 2 details research
questions for a systematic review.

Table 1 Attributes according to PICOC criteria

Heading level Example
Population Information security and usability models
Intervention Designed, analyzed and/or applied models from 2010 to 2020
Context In electronic government services
Outcomes Information security versus usability models
Comparison (Not applied)

Table 2 Research questions

No. Research questions
1 Are information security and usability part of the requirements in the implementation of
electronic government services?
2 How information security relates to usability in electronic government services?
3 How to configure information security and usability in applications or specific solutions
of electronic government?
32 F. H. Monzón et al.

Table 3 Search string

Database Search string Filters Total
Scopus ALL [(“information security” OR 2010–2019 1191
security OR secure) AND (usability
OR usable) AND (e-government OR
e-gov)] AND PUBYEAR > 2009
ACM (“information security” OR security Published since: 2010 98
OR secure) AND (usability OR
usable) AND (e-government OR
e-gov)
IEEE (“information security” OR security Filters applied: 2010–2019 25
OR secure) AND (usability OR
usable) AND (e-government OR
e-gov)
Springer “(‘information security’ OR security 2010–2019 552
OR secure) AND (usability OR
usable) AND (e-government OR
e-gov)”
Total 1866

3.2 Strategy and Search Strings

For the search process of primary papers the following steps are shown below:
1. PICOC criteria were used as search terms and both synonyms and abbreviations
have been included.
2. For the search chain Boolean operators have been used (OR, AND).
The search chain used for the systematic review of literature has been customized
to match the syntaxes of each database chosen as shown in Table 3.

3.3 Selection Criteria

Inclusion and exclusion criteria were specified according to research questions as

detailed in Table 2. For the final selection of papers in the review, the following
inclusion criteria were taken into account:
• Papers framed in electronic government.
• Information security and usability are related to some extent.
• Papers analyzing the father–son interaction between 1 of the 2 factors (information
security, usability or usability in information security).
• Papers evidencing the need for usability and information security for the electronic
government services.
Security Versus Usability in E-Government: Insights from … 33

• Papers including security and usability as success factors in the implementation

of technology services.
• Security and usability models.
• Study cases, applications or specific solutions of security and usability.
• Security and usability assessments in technological services.
On their side, the exclusion criteria would be the following:
• Papers developing outside the electronic government context.
• Papers to which access cannot be gained.
• Papers mentioning terms such as security and/or usability (in abstracts, in
keywords), but that are not eventually referred to.

3.4 Selection Process

The study identified a total of 1866 primary papers. After verifications, 1812 arti-
cles were ruled out because they did not comply with the inclusion criteria, whose
summary is shown in Table 4.
The remaining 54 papers are the studies approved for this review, with an extract
thereof seen in Table 5.

Table 4 Selected papers

Database Total papers Selected papers
Scopus 1191 38
ACM 98 3
IEEE 25 13
Springer 552 0
Total 1866 54

Table 5 Selected process

Paper title Reference Publication year
Identifying indexes affecting the quality of e-government [24] 2019
websites
Information security risk assessment model based on OCTAVE [25] 2010
for e-government
Information security strategy on mobile device based [26] 2015
e-government
LBACWeb: a lattice-based access control model for mobile [27] 2019
thin client based on web OSes
LeMTrac: legislative management and tracking system [28] 2019
34 F. H. Monzón et al.

3.5 Results of the Systematic Review

Based on the research questions that were previously posed and following the PICOC
methodology, the results obtained from the selected papers are introduced below,
classified by a question. Furthermore, for the sake of order and grouping the following
results organization has been generated and introduced below, and they are covered
in the Discussion topic (Table 6).

Results of Question 1
For question 1 Are information security and usability part of the requirements in
the implementation of electronic government services? a total of 23 papers were
identified and then classified into 3 groups.
P1G1—Need in the Electronic Government.
The first group P1G1 evidences information security and usability as critical
requirements for electronic government services. Table 7 lists the results.
P1G2—Electronic Government Evaluation.

Table 6 Research questions

Research question Group
P1—Are information security and usability P1G1—Need in the electronic government
part of the requirements in the implementation P1G2—Electronic government evaluation
of electronic government services? P1G3—Electronic government success factors
P2—How information security relates to P2G1—Security and usability relation
usability in electronic government services?
P3—How to configure information security P3G1—Technological applications
and usability in applications or specific
solutions of electronic government?

Table 7 Answers to question 1a

Research question Group
E-government transparency and citizen A study case of electronic government web
engagement increasing accountability services so that they are usable in a secure
manner
An adoption model of electronic government Identifies an urgency of electronic
services in Malaysia: electronic labor government services improvement in terms of
exchange (ELX) usability and security
Multipath routing slice experiments in Analysis of Internet towards the future
federated testbeds considers security, quality and reliability as
requirements in the coming years. Usability
takes this as know-how of the work team
Proceedings of the 5th International Evidence suggests that there is a need for a
Symposium on Human Aspects of novel approach to improve perception and
Information Security and Assurance, HAISA usability of information security
2011
Security Versus Usability in E-Government: Insights from … 35

The second group P1G2 contains papers in which Electronic Government services
quality evaluation has been conducted and security and usability have been taken
into account as part of the parameters to be evaluated. It is relevant to point out that
this group of papers evidences the significance of these two factors in electronic
government services. Table 8 shows partial results.

Table 8 Answers to question 1b

Research question Group
Exploring the dimensions of electronic Proposes a scale to measure the dimension of
government service quality electronic government services quality: (by
literature review since the last 3 decades, and
through the review of the SERVQUAL scale).
Dimensions of quality: reliability, answer
capacity, website design\contents, and
security\privacy
An assessment study of Indian state Electronic government services quality based
government portals on the utility of information, adequacy of
information, citizen-centric information,
usability, accessibility, interaction, privacy,
security, and citizen participation
Citizen participation through municipal The study assessed the municipal websites in
websites: a global scorecard five different categories of electronic
governments: (1) security and privacy, (2)
content, (3) usability, (4) services, and
participation (5) of citizens. Seoul is the
top-ranked city
E-service quality model for Indian Quality perceived by users. Seven constructs,
government portals: citizens’ perspective i.e., citizens centricity, transaction
transparency, technical adequacy, usability,
complete information, privacy and security,
and usefulness of information—were
identified from the analyses, which may be
used to assess the service quality at the
request of government portals
Assessment of development level of municipal The e-gov performance has been assessed
websites of the Republic of Lithuania taking into account usability and security, but
no relation is established
Explaining the underdevelopment of rural Assessment in Romania under five aspects:
e-government: the case of Romania (1) security and protection of personal data;
(2) usability; (3) content; (4) type of services;
and (5) digital democracy
State e-government portals in Malaysia: an The authors analyzed the website for a total of
empirical investigation thirteen states in Malaysia in relation to six
aspects: extent of transparency, interactivity,
usability and portal accessibility, citizen
participation, security and privacy, and the
maturity level of service. They present a
roadmap to improve these aspects
36 F. H. Monzón et al.

Table 9 Answers to question 1c

Research question Group
e-Participation initiatives in Europe: learning Determine success factors in e-Participation:
from practitioners government’s commitment; usability; online
combination with off-line channels; a
complete communication and promotion plan;
security and privacy; organizational aspects;
and complexity and quality of e-Participation
Evaluating Jordan’s e-government website: a Identifies that usability, accessibility, and
case study privacy/security are key factors for the
successful adoption of electronic government
webpages
Secure and reliable online verification of Among other things, security, usability and
electronic signatures in the digital age privacy preservation may be identified as key
components for the verification of reliable
electronic signature
Citizens’ attitudes towards electronic By means of focus groups, usability and
identification in a public e-service security are identified as key factors for the
context—an essential perspective in the eID success of electronic government services, in
development process a secure authentication. Citizen’s attitudes
have shown they constitute an important
addition to the development of electronic
identification solutions supporting the success
of electronic government
Designing e-government services: key service Four key factors were identified for the
attributes and citizens’ preference structures adoption of transactional services in e-gov:
usability, computer resources, technical
assistance, and security

P1G3—Electronic Government success factors.

The third group P1G3 considers papers that have included security and usability as
part of the success factor for the Electronic Government services. Table 9 shows
partial results.

Results of Question 2
Question 2 How information security relates to usability in electronic government
services? intends to identify those researches proposing a way to link both factors
at the same level or in the father–son relationship. Table 10 lists some of the papers
providing an answer to this question 2.

Results of Question 3
Question 3 How to configure information security and usability in applications or
specific solutions of electronic government? intends to identify those applications
or technological solutions which involved security and usability requirements (by
each context or stage). This group aims at finding out manners in which the relation
of both factors can materialize within an electronic government solution. Table 11
shows another extract of papers answering this question.
Security Versus Usability in E-Government: Insights from … 37

Table 10 Answers to question 2

Research question Group
Information security risk assessment model Information security risk model for electronic
based on OCTAVE for e-government government considers the confidentiality,
integrity of information, and usability to
define the value of information assets
Mobile government for improved public A model to develop electronic government
service provision in South Africa services considering security and usability
(other factors: great impact, sustainable, and
development)
Factors supporting user interface design of A total of eleven factors that show correct
mobile government application usability are identified, security is among them
LeMTrac: legislative management and A study evidencing the good acceptance of
tracking system electronic government services in terms of
usability, and the enhancement of this
acceptance when accessibility, security and
document management are added

4 Discussion

As a result of the Systematic Review, 54 papers were identified, and then organized
and classified as follows:
In group P1G1 (4 papers)—Need in the Electronic Government—electronic gov-
ernment services showed that they need to be usable and secure at present [29],
because the future trend asks for these two factors because, for example, citizens’
personal information is involved [16, 17, 30].
In group P1G2 (13 papers)—Electronic Government Evaluation—security and
usability were discussed among the evaluation variables. Government websites [50],
electronic government services at municipal level [31, 32] and assessments under the
SERVQUAL model [33] were assessed. In addition, electronic government assess-
ments were conducted in India [18, 34], Lithuania [35], Romania [36, 37], Malaysia
[38], Kyrgyzstan [39], Oman [40], and a global assessment [41] as well.
In group P1G3 (9 papers)—Electronic Government success factors—security and
usability were identified as success factors for the services design [18], optimiza-
tion [42], user-focused designs [43], as well as the implementation of electronic
participation [19], electronic voting [20], electronic signature [21], and electronic
identification [22], and in specific scenarios such as in Saudi Arabia [44] and Jordan
[45].
In group P2G1 (4 papers)—Security and usability relation—risk models [25]
and models for the development of mobile electronic government services [46] were
identified including certain security and usability aspects as part of their components.
In addition, two papers including security as a factor to improve usability [28, 47]
as a father–son relationship since it seeks with an independent factor to improve the
dependent one.
38 F. H. Monzón et al.

Table 11 Answers to question 3

Research question Group
LBACWeb: a lattice-based access control model Proposes a special configuration in LBACWeb to
for mobile thin client based on web OSes increase its usability
Towards user-friendly e-government solutions: Security and usability combination for
usability evaluation of Austrian smart-card authentication: MOCCA-local and
integration techniques MOCCA-online. Both are secure but each fulfills
different usability requirements
Measuring usability to improve the efficiency of A study directly relating security and usability in
electronic signature-based e-government authentication. It shows the results of the study
solutions
Towards cross-domain eID by using agile mobile About a more usable secure authentication and
authentication identification method
Biometrics privacy: technologies and An analysis on biometric authentication, security
applications of stored biometric information, and usability in
this type of authentication
Mobile-only solution for server-based qualified Improves biometric authentication with QES,
electronic signatures increasing security, and usability
Research on governmental data sharing based on A private blockchain enhances security,
local differential privacy approach credibility, and capacity of information exchange
response among the state departments. Local
differential privacy provides more usability and
security for the exchange of statistics. Not only
maintains available statistics, but also protects
citizens’ privacy
E-government services: Italian certified A certified email in Italy, as a success case of
electronic mail combining security and usability
User perception of Bitcoin usability and security Within cryptocurrency use acceptance
across novice users background, they are regarded as secure but need
to boost their usability with respect to users
Optimization of digitalized document UDI (Unique Document Identifier) issued by the
verification using e-governance service delivery government to improve the verification
platform (E-SDP) mechanism of security, verifiability, usability, to
control the state, Aadhaar allowed access, and
authenticity of the document
Breaking the barriers of e-participation: the A study case of digital signature in Russia:
experience of Russian digital office development authentication system (usability and security)
Usability evaluation of electronic A study relating security and usability in the
signature-based e-government solutions Austrian government. Components assessed to
perform as middleware and facilitate integration
of cryptographic hardware tokens in the
electronic government applications
Usability evaluation of electronic A study relating security and usability in the
signature-based e-government solutions Austrian government. Components assessed to
perform as middleware and facilitate the
integration of cryptographic hardware tokens in
the electronic government applications
Security Versus Usability in E-Government: Insights from … 39

For group P3G1 (24 papers)—Technological applications—solutions relating

security and usability in authentication aspects [48–50], including biometric authen-
tication [51, 52], access management [27], as well as identity management [53–55],
mobile identity [56, 57] and electronic identity [58, 59] digital signature [60] and
electronic signature [61–63] solutions were found. Applications in mobile services
[26] and specific technology such as the use of a unique identification document
[64], Single Sign-On [21, 65], certified electronic mail [66], blockchain [67] and
cryptocurrency [68] were identified. This shows that researchers and engineers have
required to combine both factors for the design of such technological solutions,
thus demonstrating the significance of security in the information to be managed by
technology and usability with respect to the end user.

5 Conclusions and Future Works

The systematic review of the state-of-the-art reaffirms the importance of incorpo-

rating information security and usability within the requirements of e-government
digital services development. Many works indicate that they are going to refer to the
balance of safety and usability, but finally, they prefer one of the two factors. This is
one of the reasons why the amount of useful papers for the present investigation is
drastically reduced.
It is concluded, from the studies reviewed, that this balance is not a general practice
in e-government implementations but is included in a reactive manner, in the face of
problems of any kind.
Likewise, it is concluded that one of the factors for the evaluation of the quality of
e-government services is the presence of this balance. Some frameworks or models
of maturity include it as the main factor such as [25, 46].
It is also concluded that in Asia (Saudi Arabia [44], Jordan [45], India [18, 34],
Malaysia [38], Kyrgyzstan [39] and Oman [40]), and in Europe (Lithuania [35],
Romania [36, 37]) have developed the most successful web and mobile applications
where the interaction between security and usability is natural. Within this context,
it is important to mention that there are very few investigations carried out in South
America, and more specifically Peru and Ecuador.
As future work, it is proposed to start the construction of a model that balances
security and usability in government electronic services, both in the design and
implementation steps.
40 F. H. Monzón et al.

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Simulation and Computer Vision
in Military Applications
Ackermann UGV with 2D Mapping
for Unknown Environments

Wilbert G. Aguilar, Israel Asimbaya, Pablo Albán, and Yéssica Fernández

Abstract UGVs have been used to replace humans in high-risk tasks such as explore
caverns, minefields or places contaminated with radiation but also, they are used to
research path planners in order to replace human intervention to drive a car. UGVs can
be controlled remotely from a safety place to avoid injuries, lethal damage and reduce
fatal accidents. However, in order to acquire information about vehicle surroundings,
it is necessary to use sensors or cameras that provide information to the remote
operator in order to make the best decision of the vehicle course. Correspondingly,
the information acquired by the sensors can be used to build an environment map,
which will be useful for future applications, or to save a register of the explored area.
The work proposed develop and build a vehicle with an Ackermann steering that can
be controlled remotely by an operator using a portable computer, with the purpose
of explore unknown environments using stereo vision cameras and build a map with
information about the surroundings.

Keywords UGV · Stereo vision · Remote control · Mapping

1 Introduction

Nowadays, UGVs are used in investigations due to its utility at the time of replac-
ing the human factor to execute high-risk tasks, such as exploring unknown envi-
ronments, reconnaissance of dangerous routes or conflict area surveillance [1, 2].

W. G. Aguilar (B) · I. Asimbaya · P. Albán

CICTE, DEEL, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, 171103 Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
W. G. Aguilar
FIS, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
GREC, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
Y. Fernández
Universidad Nacional de Educación, Azogues, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 45
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_4
46 W. G. Aguilar et al.

Researchers also improve UGV analysis, designing a 3D environment model where

the vehicle can simulate navigation in a dangerous situation, like buildings near to
collapse, also interaction with the surface can be estimated to improve simulation
results [3, 4]. However, researchers seek to improve the performing of remote-control
stations and its facility to manipulate the vehicle by adding better network devices
for communication or simplifying graphic interfaces [5, 6]. According to [7, 8], there
exist different types of modes to control UGVs, the first way is commanded control
that depends on decisions of the operator based on information providing by sensor
or cameras mounted on the vehicle; the second one is self-controlled that use a path
planner to avoid obstacles and decide the best trajectory based on information pro-
vided by a GPS or by the sensors, gesture control, where navigation is commanded by
values acquired by an IMU mounted in a glove which change its values in function
of hand movement, and finally, raptor control, which make and advanced control
tracking by image processing algorithms. Environment perception is used to identify
obstacles and show 3D structures [9, 10], however, different technologies are used to
identify the quality of ground [11, 12] or possible obstacles such as thermal lectures,
where obstacles show a higher temperature than background with the advantage that
can be used at night or environments with poor visibility [13, 14]. In order to increase
data reliability, the number of sensors increases to support weakness of each other,
as shown in [15, 16] where are mounted linear lasers, radar an infra-red camera and
a color camera, which are synchronized to collect data while the vehicle is static
or is moving. On the contrary, the amount of sensors also requires computational
processing, for that reason the use of binocular and multi-camera vision is increas-
ing in use, based on computer vision techniques to acquire environment data using
disparity reconstruction [17, 18] that deliver object depth information in grayscale.
This article proposes design and construction of an Ackermann steering vehicle
that can be controlled remotely with wireless communication in order to generate
a 2D map from cloud point data, using computer vision techniques to convert 3D
information into 2D saturation map and use a stereo vision camera as the input sensor.

2 Our Approach

2.1 Cinematic Model of Ackermann Steering

The Ackermann steering is composed of 4 bars mechanism connected to the front

wheels as shown in Fig. 1, in order to change the vehicle’s trajectory [19]. The vehicle
makes circular trajectories where the radius origin is out of the vehicle. The center
can be found by intersecting the horizontal axis of back wheels and the perpendicular
of the front wheels axis.
As shown in Fig. 2, the center of the circular trajectory is a function of the angles
from the two front wheels and the vehicle dimensions such as the length and width.
To relate all this factors, Eq. (1) is defined.
Ackermann UGV with 2D Mapping for Unknown Environments 47

Fig. 1 Ackermann steering 4 bars mechanism. a Straight trajectory; b curved trajectory

Fig. 2 Relation between

angles and vehicle
dimensions

W
cot δ2 − cot δ1 = (1)
L
On the other hand, this model represents trajectory having as a reference one of
the two front wheels, for that reason an equivalent wheel is defined as shown in
Fig. 3, also it helps to simplify the mathematical model. The equivalent angle can be
defined as shown in Eq. (2) and the Ackermann angle is shown in Eq. (3).

cot δ2 + cot δ1
cot δ = (2)
2
L
δACK = (3)
R
Now we can assume that the Ackermann angle is approach to the sum of the
turning angles as shown in Eq. (4).

δ1 + δ2 ≈ δ ≈ δACK (4)
48 W. G. Aguilar et al.

Fig. 3 Equivalent middle

wheel

2.2 Environment Perception

The stereo camera uses stereoscopic vision that captures two images of the same
scene, but is separated by a known distance, then the saturation points are identified
in both images and finally, the points are matched [20]. The number of displacement
pixels is directly related to the depth distance as shown in Fig. 4.
The stereo camera delivers a cloud of points that describe the depth of the envi-
ronment, each point has information of its position on the cartesian axis; however,

Fig. 4 Stereoscopic vision

explanation
Ackermann UGV with 2D Mapping for Unknown Environments 49

Fig. 5 2D map construction

in order to build a 2D map is necessary to normalize each point to a common “z”

point, and the rest of the points are discarded. The algorithm read camera informa-
tion constantly and also transforms the 3D information into 2D information to build
the map as shown in Fig. 5. Finally, the map can be saved as a pgm image that has
information on the environment based on saturation, where black points mean full
saturation (obstacle) and white points mean low saturation or empty space, the result
is shown in Fig. 6.

2.3 Remote Control

The communication between the vehicle and the operator is established by a LAN
network as shown in Fig. 7 where the laptop sends commands using ROS topics and
nodes [20] to the processing card inside the vehicle, allowing the operator to control
vehicle direction, the velocity of displacement and angle of curvature [21].
The code that receives the commands from the operator is shown below (Algorithm
1). To control the vehicle the program reads constantly input data each 100 ms in
order to establish a real-time communication, where the operator sets the direction
parameters, however, to visualize the vehicle perspective the processing card streams
camera images that are visualized in the laptop used by the operator.
50 W. G. Aguilar et al.

Fig. 6 Final map built

Fig. 7 UGV teleoperated vehicle communication diagram

Ackermann UGV with 2D Mapping for Unknown Environments 51

3 Conclusions and Future Work

This paper shows a UGV with Ackermann steering that can be controlled remotely
by a LAN network using a laptop with a simple interface (HMI) that sends control
messages using ROS nodes and topics to control actuators inside the vehicle in order
to acquire information of the environment, process that information and building a
2D map, where the amount of sensors has been reduced to the minimum required to
perceive the surroundings. Results show that the vehicle control is acceptable due to
commands time response that also improves operator experience while the mapping
is running, also the real-time transmission of camera information allows the operator
to guide the vehicle through the best path. In addition, the built map shows the empty
spaces and obstacles in the vehicle’s trajectory that can be used to develop a path
planner for Ackermann vehicles, considering its kinematics restrictions.

Acknowledgements This work is part of the project perception and localization system for
autonomous navigation of rotor micro aerial vehicles in GPS-denied environments, VisualNav-
Drone, 2016-PIC-024, from the Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, directed by Dr. Wilbert
G. Aguilar.
52 W. G. Aguilar et al.

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903951/ (2013)
Visual-Based Real-Time Detection Using
Neural Networks and Micro-UAVs
for Military Operations

Marco Calderón, Wilbert G. Aguilar, and Darwin Merizalde

Abstract This article presents a vision-based detection system for a micro-UAV,

which has been implemented in parallel to an autonomous GPS-based mission. The
research seeks to determine a value objective for decision-making within military
reconnaissance operations. YOLO-based algorithms have been used in real-time,
providing detection of people and vehicles while fulfilling an automated navigation
mission. The project was implemented in the CICTE Military Applications Research
Center, as part of an automatic takeoff, navigation, detection, and landing system.
The detection based on YOLO V3 offers efficient results from the analysis of sen-
sitivity and specificity in the detection in real-time, in external environments during
autonomous navigation and while the recognition of the objective is carried out
keeping the UAV in stationary mode, with different angles of the camera.

Keywords Object detection · Recognition · Autonomous navigation · Real-time

processing

1 Introduction

UAVs can recognize land or sea areas, conduct surveillance on military units, support
troops through recognition, contributing to the security of strategic areas. The armies
of countries with potential in military technology, everyday demand greater needs
in operations for which they use unmanned aerial systems as effective support for
their troops [1], causing an evolutionary change within the spatial air ordering where
observation and attack practices take greater control of airspace [2]. The use of UAVs
is linked to public safety, becoming an observation strategy for decision-making

M. Calderón · W. G. Aguilar (B) · D. Merizalde

CICTE, DEEL, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
W. G. Aguilar
FIS, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
GREC, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 55
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_5
56 M. Calderón et al.

within the military field [3]. The Ecuadorian Armed Forces have UAVs, whose code
is partially open [4, 5], which invites research to improve their capabilities based on
the development of applications that allow access to their configuration and operation.
Detection missions must be executed in real-time, and are subject to the adequate
performance of UAV sensors and resources, mainly in the acquisition of images [4].
For the development of a UAV objective detection system, it is essential to establish
a real-time communication system that allows total control from a ground station [6,
7]. At present, there is the possibility of creating applications through an SDK (Soft-
ware Development Kit acronym), where the conditions for accessing UAV resources
from the ground station are programmed. In the case of Parrot Bebop UAVs, the
official SDK is the ARDroneSDK3.
Vision-based objective detection must be established in real-time by means of
algorithms integrated into intelligent autonomous systems [8, 9]. The YOLO algo-
rithm (your only look once) is used, which uses deep learning and convolutional
neural networks to classify images in real-time [4]. The detection algorithm must
be implemented at the ground station, then communicate remotely with the UAV to
execute the actions [10].
The use of UAVs (acronym in English of unmanned aerial vehicles) in military
operations presupposes an advantage in operating within the Theater of Operations.
The most powerful Armed Forces in the world are coupling UAV systems within their
employment doctrine, in this context research is carried out where the use of these
devices is determined in an integral way [11]. Being a technology in global expan-
sion, the research developments in military applications are oriented to autonomous
systems with sufficient capacities to fulfill all kinds of missions [12]. UAV systems
have in recent years been an axis within the technological changes applied to security
and defense [13].
In the Ecuadorian Armed Forces, the use of UAV systems occurs in security
and surveillance operations at a tactical level [14]. All the actions carried out by
UAVs are carried out by teleoperation, therefore, there are no autonomous systems
implementations to fulfill specific missions within an operation. Research is currently
underway for autonomous systems within the CICTE Military Applications Research
Center, with excellent results, however, employment in military operations is still in
process.
The success of the missions entrusted to UAVs depends on the ability to perform
functions in support of operations that pose a danger to people, UAVs act in their
replacement with increasingly automated systems that are increasingly sophisticated.
UAVs in the theater of operations are used with constant evolution, mainly in the
operations of intelligence, surveillance, recognition, at the strategic operational, and
tactical levels [11–14].
The contribution to military action with the use of UAVs in the theater of operations
will increase when a fully automated system with route planning and specific missions
assigned from a ground station is available, thus leaving the operator’s dependence
on UAV control. In this way, greater precision is achieved in the mission to be
accomplished, in addition it can be monitored in real-time. Currently, the use of UAVs
in the Ecuadorian Armed Forces is subject to operations that help improve the state’s
Visual-Based Real-Time Detection Using Neural Networks … 57

capacity to respond to threats and internal and external risks, but through manual
teleoperation. This project presents an innovative and zero-cost proposal, aimed at
achieving complete automation of UAVs, optimizing the detection capabilities with
which these vehicles are equipped, thus allowing the fulfillment of specific missions.
Developing a vision-based detection system for MICRO-UAVs allows to fulfill
missions in support of military reconnaissance operations. In the first instance, the
research project proposes to establish the communication of the Micro-UAV with a
ground station, replacing the manual control by a computer, in which access to the
UAV resources is available. For this purpose, bebop_autonomy will be used, which
is a ROS (an acronym for Robotic Operating System) controller for the Parrot Bebop
drone, based on the software development kid ARDroneSDK3.
During navigation towards the objective and upon reaching the exact coordinates,
the detention continues using the YOLO vision-based algorithm that uses convolu-
tional neural networks [4, 8], allowing the processing of the information provided
by the on-board camera in real-time.

2 Vision-Based Objective Detection System

Computer vision is the method used for target detection, in this sense a computer can
detect an image based on the variation of colors, the camera becomes a sensor that
provides images with a set of values to which denominate pixels and represent as a
whole the dimension of photography. The representation of an image in grayscale
can be observed in Fig. 1, each pixel has a value in numbers that varies proportionally
according to the intensity of the color; the identification of the numerical value is
done by means of a software programmed for the detection of an image in pixels
[15–18].
The characteristics of the image with its representation in pixels are the first
function to start with computer vision. This function is called features here different

Fig. 1 ConvNet organizes its neurons in three dimensions (width, height, depth), as visualized in
one of the layers. Each layer of a ConvNet transforms the 3D input volume into a 3D output volume
of neuronal activations
58 M. Calderón et al.

levels of abstraction are identified as green, colors, angles, objects of an image or

characteristics of a person [19]. The features function uses tools such as shallow
focus or unsupervised learning to classify images. The main focus of the detection
of objectives developed is based on an unsupervised approach that works through a
learning algorithm with support in Coevolutionary Neural Networks [4, 5].
It is known that YOLO is a very robust real-time image recognition system that
works at high frame rates, but within it encompasses complex and thorough mathe-
matics, so it requires a high-performance processor since images of different types
are entered sizes and with a variety of multicolored combinations that within a com-
puter are huge matrices depending on the size and therefore the processors need to
perform large calculations in the shortest possible time.
It is also known that before YOLO, real-time object detection systems have been
designed such as RetinaNet, SSD513, among others, whose methodology is the use
of classifiers and locators for detection, taking more time for processing, obtaining a
detection rate of 20–25 FPS, but YOLO is different since a neural network is applied
in it and this network divides the regions into bounding boxes to later analyze each
frame and proceed to weigh these tables and then predict a probability percentage
indicating the object that is there.
The YOLO recognition system works with convolutional neural networks and its
processing algorithms tend to work optimally in relation to other detection systems
since they receive a single vector and it is transformed by passing through a series
of hidden layers until passing through a layer of output representing class scores, as
well as in YOLO its algorithmic tricks are improved. The emphasis is then placed
on the comparative diagram of YOLO in relation to previously used object detection
systems.
The neural networks used today have been progressively developing such as the
normal neural network that uses only two dimensions whose capacity supports a
certain number of weights with the use of locator and classifiers that delay the calcu-
lation process if necessary. A real-time detection. In a convolutional neural network
it can be seen that in its architecture it uses three dimensions which measure the
same dimensions as the normal width and height, to this the third one that is depth is
added so it gives us an activation volume and generating a greater amount of weights
in relation to normal networks. Here we present a comparison between normal and
convolutional networks.
When dealing with high-dimensional inputs such as images, as we saw above
it is impractical to connect neurons to all neurons in the previous volume. Instead,
we will connect each neuron to only a local region of the input volume. The spatial
extent of this connectivity is a hyperparameter called the receptive field of the neuron
(equivalently this is the filter size). The extent of the connectivity along the depth
axis is always equal to the depth of the input volume. It is important to emphasize
again this asymmetry in how we treat the spatial dimensions (width and height) and
the depth dimension: The connections are local in space (along width and height),
but always full along the entire depth of the input volume.
The YOLO prediction system uses a four-dimensional vector tx , t y , tw , th , where
the x-y subscripts represent the general position of the coordinates in the image while
Visual-Based Real-Time Detection Using Neural Networks … 59

Fig. 2 Boundary tables with

previous dimensions and
location prediction. We
predict the width and height
of the frame as
compensations for the
centroids of the cluster. We
predict the central
coordinates of the frame in
relation to the location of the
filter application using a
sigmoid function [20]

w-h represent the size and position of the bounding boxes vectors of the object to be
identified are indicated
 [20]. If the cell is displaced from the upper left corner of the
image by C x , C y and the previous bounding box has width and height pw and ph ,
this prediction is determinate for these equations [20]:

bx = σ (tx ) + C x (1)

 
by = σ ty + C y (2)

bw = pw etw (3)

bh = ph eth (4)

YOLOv3 predicts an objectivity score for each bounding box using logistic regres-
sion. It should be 1 if the previous bounding box overlaps an object of fundamental
truth more than any previous bounding box, we will show a diagram where the
prediction method is observed using bounding boxes [20] (Fig. 2).

3 Tests and Results of the Objective Detection System

3.1 Metrics Assessed on Detection

The metrics evaluated in the detection of the objects are oriented towards the ability
of the system to identify people and vehicles, obtaining sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity considers two variables, True Positive people or vehicles detected by the
system and false-negative people or vehicles not detected by the system, then:
60 M. Calderón et al.

Fig. 3 Detection system

during takeoff

VP
Sensibility = (5)
VP + FN

where VP True Positive and FN False Negative.

Likewise, the specificity is analyzed, which is the ability to identify certain objects
that are neither people nor vehicles, that is, it is considered True Negative to objects
not identified as vehicles or people but that are actually present in the image. On
the other hand, False Positives are those objects incorrectly identified as persons or
vehicles.
VN
Specificity = (6)
VN + FP

where VN True Negative and FP False Positive.

The identification is usually done when a 50% probability of the object is a person
or vehicle is exceeded, in which case the algorithm generates a frame around the
object with the given name, as seen in Fig. 3.
The tests were carried out at a height of 30 m, a distance that allows Bebop 2 to
make a clear detection without putting at risk.

3.2 Description of the Tests Performed

The algorithm has been programmed to detect vehicles throughout the trajectory
from takeoff to mission return. Initially, the tests focus on takeoff until reaching
30 m high, during this trajectory the camera remains at 45° and the detection system
is active. Under the same conditions of height and angle of the camera, detection is
performed during GPS-based navigation. Finally, upon reaching the coordinate from
which the target should be detected, the third test is performed by taking 10 images
processed with the detection system.
Visual-Based Real-Time Detection Using Neural Networks … 61

Table 1 Sensitivity and specificity during takeoff

Frames VP FN Sensibilidad Frames VN FP Especificidad
F1 7 1 0.88 F1 0 0 –
F2 9 2 0.82 F2 2 1 0.67
F3 11 0 1.00 F3 4 2 0.67
F4 4 1 0.80 F4 3 3 0.50
F5 12 2 0.86 F5 4 1 0.80
F6 10 1 0.91 F6 2 3 0.40
F7 11 0 1.00 F7 1 0 1.00
F8 10 2 0.83 F8 3 1 0.75
F9 9 0 1.00 F9 3 0 1.00
F 10 13 1 0.93 F 10 2 2 0.50
Media 96 10 0.91 Media 53 34 0.70

3.2.1 Detection During Takeoff

There is an image at 10 m high, with a camera angle of 45°, in the building of the
ESPE research center, in Fig. 3 vehicles are detected, a vehicle not detected by the
system is observed.
In the tests carried out during the execution of the takeoff, the data of True Positive
of the image are 7, False Negative 1, True Negative 0, and False Positive 0, with this
the percentage of sensitivity and specificity of the system is obtained (Table 1).
Sensitivity reaches 91% and specificity 70%. It is concluded that the system works
correctly in the detection of vehicles at a low height.

3.2.2 Detection During Navigation

During autonomous navigation at 30 m high, the system detects in real-time with a

camera angle at 45°.
In Fig. 4, vehicles are detected as True Positive and 2 false negatives, the detection
of 1 Positive False, and 1 True Negative is observed (Table 2).
In tests during GPS navigation, sensitivity decreases to 57% and specificity to
56%. It is concluded that the moving system has a 34% decrease in sensitivity with
respect to takeoff, in terms of specificity it decreases to a lesser extent with 14%.

3.2.3 System Object Detection

For the detection of the final objective the UAV remains at 30 m high in a stationary
position after the GPS navigation is completed, it takes 10 frames with a camera
angle of 45°.
62 M. Calderón et al.

Fig. 4 Target detection

system

Table 2 Sensitivity and specificity during GPS navigation

Frames VP FN Sensibilidad Frames VN FP Especificidad
F1 3 2 0.60 F1 1 1 0.50
F2 4 3 0.57 F2 2 0 1.00
F3 5 2 0.71 F3 1 2 0.33
F4 3 2 0.60 F4 2 2 0.50
F5 4 4 0.50 F5 2 1 0.67
F6 5 4 0.56 F6 1 2 0.33
F7 6 5 0.55 F7 2 1 0.67
F8 5 4 0.56 F8 2 2 0.50
F9 4 3 0.57 F9 1 2 0.33
F 10 3 3 0.50 F 10 3 1 0.75
Media 42 32 0.57 Media 53 34 0.56

In Fig. 5, 17 vehicles are detected as True Positive and 10 false negatives, the
detection of 3 False Positive and 1 True Negative is observed (Table 3).
In the objective detection tests, the sensitivity reaches 71% and the specificity
71%. It is concluded that the system works correctly in the detection of vehicles,

Fig. 5 Target detection

system
Visual-Based Real-Time Detection Using Neural Networks … 63

Table 3 Sensitivity and specificity during target detection

Frames VP FN Sensibilidad Frames VN FP Especificidad
F1 17 10 0.63 F1 3 1 0.75
F2 15 6 0.71 F2 4 0 1.00
F3 21 11 0.66 F3 5 1 0.83
F4 14 4 0.78 F4 2 2 0.50
F5 12 4 0.75 F5 3 1 0.75
F6 24 13 0.65 F6 3 2 0.60
F7 18 5 0.78 F7 2 1 0.67
F8 22 6 0.79 F8 4 3 0.57
F9 21 8 0.72 F9 5 2 0.71
F 10 16 7 0.70 F 10 3 1 0.75
Media 180 74 0.71 Media 53 34 0.71

the sensitivity decreases with respect to takeoff by 20%, however, with respect to
the detection during navigation it rises by 14%. The specificity regarding takeoff is
maintained, but it improves 15% with respect to the result during GPS navigation.

4 Conclusions and Future Works

The real-time detection, parallel to the execution of a totally autonomous mission

of a UAV, is possible thanks to the integration with takeoff, navigation, and land-
ing algorithms. Convolutional neural networks with training coupled with vehicle
detection.
In the military application, this system is very useful because it can obtain
necessary information for the operation in real-time and shortest possible time.

References

1. Orbea, D., Moposita, J., Aguilar, W.G., Paredes, M., León, G., Jara-Olmedo, A.: Math model
of UAV multi rotor prototype with fixed wing aerodynamic structure for a flight simulator.
In: International Conference on Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics,
pp. 199–211 (2017)
2. Kleinschmidt, J.: Drones y el orden legal internacional. Tecnología, estrategia y largas cadenas
de acción (2015)
3. Oviedo, J.: Uso de los drones en la seguridad privada (2016)
4. Aguilar, W.G., Angulo, C.: Real-time model-based video stabilization for microaerial vehicles.
Neural Process. Lett. 43(2), 459–477 (2016)
64 M. Calderón et al.

5. Aguilar, W.G., Salcedo, V.S., Sandoval, D.S., Cobeña, B.: Developing of a video-based
model for UAV autonomous navigation. In: Latin American Workshop on Computational
Neuroscience, pp. 94–105 (2017)
6. Aguilar, W.G., Cobeña, B., Rodriguez, G., Salcedo, V.S., Collaguazo, B.: SVM and RGB-D
sensor based gesture recognition for UAV control. In: International Conference on Augmented
Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics, pp. 713–719 (2018)
7. Ritchie, M., Fioranelli, F., Borrion, H., Griffiths, H.: Classification of loaded/unloaded micro-
drones using multistatic radar. Electron. Lett. [Internet] 51(22), 1813–1815. Available from
https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/journals/10.1049/el.2015.3038 (2015). Cited 2020 Jan
2
8. Aguilar, W.G., Casaliglla, V.P., Polit, J.L.: Obstacle avoidance based-visual navigation for
micro aerial vehicles. Electronics 6(1), 10 (2017)
9. Vetrella, A.: On GF-2016 I 2nd IF, 2016 undefined. Cooperative UAV navigation under nominal
GPS coverage and in GPS-challenging environments. ieeexplore.ieee.org [Internet]. Available
from https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/7740606/. Cited 2020 Jan 5
10. Aguilar, W.G., Morales, S.G.: 3D environment mapping using the Kinect V2 and path planning
based on RRT algorithms. Electronics 5(4), 70 (2016)
11. Campanelli, H.: La utilización conjunta de los Sistemas Aéreos no Tripulados en el Teatro
de Operaciones [Internet]. Available from http://190.12.101.91:80/jspui/handle/1847939/138
(2014). Cited 2019 Dec 21
12. Ortuño, N., María, J., Cuquerella, J.L.: Desarrollo de un sistema de control para UAV con
capacidad ATOL entre lanchas de instrucción de la Escuela Naval Militar. Available from
http://calderon.cud.uvigo.es/handle/123456789/124 (2016). Cited 2019 Dec 21
13. Riola, J.M., Rodríguez, M.: Tecnologías del Siglo XXI TECHNOLOGIES OF THE XXI
CENTURY, vol. 4 (2018)
14. Baquero Montoya, P., Briones, R.V.: EMPLEO DE LOS UAV, EN OPERACIONES DE
SEGURIDAD Y VIGILANCIA EN LAS ÁREAS ESTRATÉGICAS EN EL ECUADOR,
vol. IV [Internet]. Available from www.altiuas.com (2019). Cited 2019 Dec 22
15. Aguilar, W.G., Luna, M.A., Ruiz, H., Moya, J.F., Luna, M.P., Abad, V., Parra, H.: Statistical
abnormal crowd behavior detection and simulation for real-time applications. In: International
Conference on Intelligent Robotics and Applications, pp. 671–682 (2017)
16. Aguilar, W.G., Manosalvas, J.F., Guillén, J.A., Collaguazo, B.: Robust motion estimation based
on multiple monocular camera for indoor autonomous navigation of micro aerial vehicle.
In: International Conference on Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics,
pp. 547–561 (2018)
17. Planells, P., Blasco, F.: DESARROLLO DEL MODELO DINÁMICO DE UN CUA-
TRIRROTOR Y DISEÑO DE LOS SISTEMAS DE CONTROL DE ESTABILIZACIÓN
Y SEGUIMIENTO AUTÓNOMO DE TRAYECTORIAS [Internet]. Universidad Politéc-
nica de Valencia. Available from https://riunet.upv.es/bitstream/handle/10251/52791/TFG_
14340178461876400573981960261481.pdf?sequence=2 (2015). Cited 2020 Jan 10
18. Aguilar, W.G., Angulo, C.: Real-time video stabilization without phantom movements for
micro aerial vehicles. EURASIP J. Image Video Process. 2014(1), 46 (2014)
19. Pusiol, P.D.: Redes Convolucionales en Comprension de Escenas [Internet]. Available from
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/ar/ (2014). Cited 2020 Jan 12
20. Redmon, J., Divvala, S., Girshick, R., Farhadi, A.: You Only Look Once: Unified, Real-Time
Object Detection [Internet]. Available from http://pjreddie.com/yolo/ (2016). Cited 2020 Jan
13
Visual and Inertial Data-Based Virtual
Localization for Urban Combat

Wilbert G. Aguilar, Marco Calderón, Darwin Merizalde,

Fabricio Amaguaña, and Jonathan Tituaña

Abstract The present work of investigation presents a system of estimation of posi-

tion and orientation based on algorithms of artificial vision and inertial data taken
from the unit of inertial measurement incorporated in a smartphone device. The
implemented system realizes the estimation of position and orientation in real time.
An application was developed for android operating systems that allows capturing
the images of the environment and executes the algorithms of artificial vision. In the
implementation of the system, the detectors of feature points were tested, Harris,
Shi-Tomasi, FAST and SIFT, with the objective of finding the detector that allows
to have an optimized system so that it can be executed by the processor of a sys-
tem embedded as are smartphones. To calculate the displacement of the camera
adhered to a mobile agent, the optical flow method was implemented. Additionally,
gyroscope data incorporated in the smartphone was used to estimate the orientation
of the agent. The system incorporates a simulation of estimated movement within a
three-dimensional environment that runs on a computer. The position and orientation
data are sent from the smartphone to the computer wirelessly through a Wi-Fi con-
nection. The three-dimensional environment is a digital version of the central block
of the Universidad de la Fuerzas Armadas ESPE where the tests of the implemented
system were carried out.

Keywords Military strategy · Augmented reality · Warlike simulator · Harris ·

Shi-Tomasi · Optical flow · Android

W. G. Aguilar (B) · M. Calderón · D. Merizalde · F. Amaguaña · J. Tituaña

CICTE, DEEL, Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
W. G. Aguilar
FIS, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
GREC, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 65
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_6
66 W. G. Aguilar et al.

1 Introduction

The present research project focuses on the estimation of egomotion in internal envi-
ronments [1], GPS denied [2], for locating military personnel during urban combat
operations using monocular images and inertial information. The system will be
developed in the programming environment Unity 3D and executed on the operating
system for mobile phones, android. The acquisition of images will be done with a
monocular camera [3], incorporated in the mobile device (smartphone). Addition-
ally, inertial data provided by the IMU of the device will be used in order to improve
the accuracy in locating the military personnel.
The location of the military elements will be visualized in a virtual environment,
which will be a digital version of a controlled environment. This will be executed in
a computer designed to monitor military personnel.
The criminal acts are not carried out only in the jungle area as it has been in the last
decade; now they have moved to an urbanized zone with terrorist acts. These events
have motivated the participation of military personnel in operations to support the
National Police to safeguard citizen security, and it is in this field where urban combat
operations become important. These combat operations are aimed at neutralizing
hostile enemies, rescuing hostages, deactivating bombs, but above all, guaranteeing
peace and tranquility of citizens. They are carried out in internal environments that
hinder the monitoring of military personnel by the different commands and control
levels. The construction of an egomotion estimation system for military units that
allows monitoring military units during combat operations is proposed.
This project seeks to be useful for military personnel in operations in urban envi-
ronments, in which knowing the exact location is essential, since taking into account
recent events in our country, and the invasion of radical subversive groups, opera-
tions of rescue or surveillance can be carried out with a geolocation backup where
the trajectories of the military units and troops could be monitored, to monitor their
progress or eventual extraction of them.

2 Related Works

Urban combat operations are actions carried out by military forces in an environment
different from conventional scenarios (mountain, jungle, air, sea), which are carried
out in environments with the presence of goods, vehicles, people. These environments
are called “urban.” The elements of the urban distribution must be part of the defense
scheme of the zone so that the attacker can be neutralized and the effectiveness of the
weapons improved. However, in these operations, military actions are affected by the
morphology of urban buildings complicating the mobility of military personnel [4].
The location of military personnel is an important factor, within these operations,
that can be affected by the characteristics of the environment.
Visual and Inertial Data-Based Virtual Localization … 67

The latter is due to the fact that the most common positioning systems based on
satellites (GPS or Galileo) [5, 6] or on mobile telephony networks [7] are suitable for
outdoor environments where there is direct vision of satellites or of the base stations.
However, when these systems are used inside buildings, they present many problems
with the attenuation of the received signals and the multipath caused by the rebounds
of the signal.
In recent years, several alternatives have been developed for locating targets in
internal environments or denied GPS. One of them is the estimation of the egomo-
tion based on images obtained by the capture device from a first-person perspective,
which allows the calculation of the pose (position and rotation) of the capture device.
This estimation method can be done with the use of monocular cameras, stereo cam-
eras, RGBD cameras or 3D LIDAR sensors [8]. In the UK, an egomotion estimation
system was developed by using a monocular camera installed in a vehicle. In that
system, through methods such as feature matching and feature tracking, the speed
of the mobile was estimated. Although the instantaneous velocity values were noisy
and imprecise, the average velocity values were close to the real values demonstrat-
ing the system’s potential for estimating egomotion [9]. Another system on motion
estimation of a mobile vehicle was developed in 2006. It uses a monocular cam-
era, and through the method known as optical flow, it is possible to estimate the
movement of the vehicle [10]. A favorable point for the development of systems and
applications based on computer vision is the technological advance that smartphones
have had with high processing capabilities in conjunction with multiple sensors. An
example of this is the game called Mozzies [11] developed by Siemens being the
first application to use the video camera as a sensor to create an augmented reality
environment.
Parallel to the development of smartphones as processing devices, software devel-
opment has also taken important steps. Since 2000, the free license computer vision
library has been developed. Its main advantage lies in that being multiplatform allows
the development of applications in different programming softwares such as Phyton,
C++, MATLAB, Unity 3D, among others [12]. Taking this background into account,
this research project proposes the development of an application for mobile devices
based on computer vision algorithms in order to perform the estimation of egomotion
for military purposes during urban combat operations.

3 Our Approach

The system comprises two stages. The first stage is called visual-inertial system and
runs on a smartphone. It is responsible for capturing the images of the environment
and calculating the movement parameters. The second stage is the monitoring system.
This is executed on a computer. It allows the visualization of the path, estimated in
the first stage, on a building plan. It also allows to observe a simulation of movement
in a virtual environment.
68 W. G. Aguilar et al.

Fig. 1 Path estimation

3.1 Visual-Inertial System

The visual-inertial system was implemented in a smartphone device with android

operating system. The most relevant feature of the device is the Snapdragon 845
processor (2.8 GhHz) with an Adreno 630 GPU on which the algorithm developed
was executed, obtaining better results than in the processors with lower clock speeds.
Figure 1 shows the path estimation process.
The process of estimation of position and orientation begins with the capture of
the images with a rate of 30 frames per second (FPS) that is the standard quantity in
the video devices.

3.1.1 Feature Points Detection

The feature points detection is based on the extraction of points from the initial image,
and then, the search of said points is made in the images subsequently captured. This
method is used for small movements [13–15]. In the detection of points what is
sought is that they are easily distinguishable and comparable There are two types of
detectors, corner detectors and texture detectors.
Shi-Tomasi [16] developed a method that allows to verify the quality of the feature
points between two consecutive images; for this, they use a measure of dissimilarity.
If the dissimilarity between a pair of points grows a lot, the point is discarded.
The OpenCV library integrates the goodFeaturesToTrack() function based on
the principle of dissimilarity developed by Shi-Tomasi for the selection of features.
The detection algorithm implemented in the function is a modification of the Harris
corner detector. It uses an altered version of the Harris detector scoring function that
determines whether or not the tracking window contains a corner [17, 18].

R = min(λ1 , λ2 ) (1)

where λ1 , λ2 are the eigenvalues of the matrix formed by the function of weights
and the derivatives of the image in the directions of x and y. The values for which a
Visual and Inertial Data-Based Virtual Localization … 69

characteristic is considered a corner are given when λ1 λ2 > λmin _min where λmin
is the characteristic quality threshold between [0, 1].
Algorithm 1 shows the implementation process of the Shi-Tomasi points of interest
detector.

Algorithm 1: Shi-Tomasi
1: Parameters of the descriptor
2: Image captured and converted to gray scale
3: Feature points detection and description
4: Feature points stored in a matrix of points (corners)
5: The detected points plotted to observe the functioning of the function: Imgproc.circle (mask,
P, 7, green); mask is the mask on which the point P is plotted, 7 is the radius of the point, and
green is the color in RGB code (0,255.0)
6: The process is repeated from Step 2.

3.1.2 Optical Flow

After detecting the characteristic points, the next step is the calculation of the optical
flow between two consecutive images in order to find the point correspondences
and then be able to estimate the transformation matrix that allows determining the
movement of the person.
The technique consists of calculating the vector field where each vector is a
displacement vector that shows the movement of the characteristic points between
two consecutive frames. These displacement fields are calculated locally in the
environment of a characteristic point.
Figure 2 shows the relationship that exists in the displacement vector of an object
in the real world and the optical flow vector in the image plane. That is why, the field
of optical flow is defined as a projection of the movement of an object in space.
Equation 2 mathematically defines the optical flow method that relates the partials
of the image and velocity with respect to the x-axis and y-axis.

∂I ∂I ∂I
vx + vy + vt = 0 (2)
∂x ∂y ∂t

Fig. 2 Relationship between

3D movement and movement
in the plane of the image
70 W. G. Aguilar et al.

where vx = ∂∂tx and v y = ∂∂ty are the components of the velocity (optical flow) and
Ix = ∂∂ xI , I y = ∂∂ yI , It = ∂∂tI are the partial derivatives of the intensity of the pixels of
the image in the region surrounding a characteristic point. Restructuring
   
Ix , I y · Vx , Vy = −It

∇ I · v̌ = −It (3)

where ∇ I · v̌ = −It is known as 2D movement and v̌ is the optical flow of the

surrounding region one corner.
OpenCV implements the calcOpticalFlowPyrLK() function that solves the optical
flow equations together with the Lukas–Kanade solver to find the optical flow vectors
that describe the movement of a neighborhood where a corner has been detected.
Then, these vectors are compared with the vectors corresponding to the neighborhood
of the corner that is in the next captured image to determine the correspondence of the
pixels. These correspondences are stored in a state matrix, forming pairs of corners
or points with their respective coordinates in pixels.

3.1.3 RANSAC

The set of correspondences calculated by the methods of matching, tracking or optical

flow, have errors in the association called anomalous values (outliers) due to image
noise, occlusion, blurring, point and vision changes and lighting. For the estimation to
be more precise, it is convenient to eliminate these values by means of the RANSAC
method [19, 20]; Algorithm 2 explains the process of the method.

Algorithm 2: RANSAC
1: Select the minimum number of points, useful for generating the parameter model.
2: Resolution of the parameters in the model.
3: Defines the number of points in the set that fit according to the defined tolerance.
4: If the number of points that fit over the total number of points in the set exceeds the threshold,
recalculate the parameters of the model with the points that fit.
5: Otherwise, repeat Steps 1 to 4, N times.

3.1.4 Calculation of the Essential Matrix and Extraction of Movement

Parameters

The estimation of visual movement consists of calculating the essential matrix (E)
between two images captured in two consecutive instants of time that we will call
k and k − 1. The essential matrix describes the correspondence between the points
Visual and Inertial Data-Based Virtual Localization … 71

of an image at time k − 1 and the consecutive frame k. E contains the spin data
contained in the sub-matrix R and the translation data contained in the matrix t as
shown in Eq. 4.

E = tR (4)

OpenCV implements the findEssentialMat() method to find the essential matrix.

Algorithm 3 explains the calculation process of the transformation matrix.

Algorithm 3: Calculation of the transformation matrix

1: The first image is captured I k−1
2: High contrast points are detected by a characteristic detector, and the coordinates of the
points are stored in a point matrix P.
3: The second image is captured I k
4: High contrast points are detected by a characteristic detector, and the coordinates of the
points are stored in a point matrix C.
5: The optical flow between the images is calculated I k−1 , I k .
6 The correspondences between the pairs of points P i and C i are stored in a state matrix st.
7: Through the set of points C, P and the matrix of correspondences, the essential matrix E is
calculated
8: The pose, rotation R and translation t that form the transformation matrix T k are recovered.
9: The image I k is copied to the image I k−1 , and the points C in the matrix of points P and
Steps 3–9 are repeated

Luego de calcular la matriz esencial que contiene los parámetros de movimiento

el paso final es extraerlos para ello se utilizó la función de OpenCV recoverPose()
que permite descomponer la matriz esencial en las matrices R y t.

4 Results and Discussion

This test was performed at 4 pm with an average illumination level of 70.57 lx. The
path introduces two rotations and a considerable distance in order to pro-bar the
accuracy of the system.
FAST Detector: The low illumination affects this method in a remarkable way; as
seen in Fig. 3, the estimated path is far from the real path. A percentage error of
35.6% was obtained. Figure 3 shows the estimated path on the smartphone screen.
Harris Detector: Despite the low illumination, Fig. 4 shows only a slight difference
between the two trajectories. A percentage error of 9.7% was obtained. Figure 4
shows the estimated path on the smartphone screen.
Shi-Thomas Detector: As in the previous tests, the path estimated by this method
turns out to be the most efficient. A percentage error of 1.3% was obtained. Figure 5
shows that there is hardly a slight difference between the two trajectories.
Relative and percentage error: Table 1 shows the results obtained in the third test.
72 W. G. Aguilar et al.

Fig. 3 Detector FAST—map 2D and smartphone

Fig. 4 Harris detector—map 2D and smartphone

Fig. 5 Shi-Thomas detector—map 2D and smartphone

Visual and Inertial Data-Based Virtual Localization … 73

Table 1 Results of the path

Detector Pixels Estimated Relative error Error (%)
distance
Lux 70,6 FAST 244,0 19.06 0,356 35,61
Pixels 379,0 Harris 415,7 32.466 0,097 9,68
Dist 29,6 Shi-Tomasi 384,0 29.99 0,013 1,33

On this occasion, the FAST detector is presented as the most deficient with 35.6%.
In the same way, as in the previous test, SHI-TOMASI is the most efficient with a
percentage error of 1.3%.

5 Conclusions and Future Work

The results show that corner detectors are more efficient when it comes to real-time
applications, because they require less computational resources and their execu-
tion time is less. Speaking on time, Harris and Shi-Tomasi detectors allow accurate
estimated trajectories to be obtained even when the ambient lighting levels are low.
In the experiments carried out, four characteristic point detectors were tested;
among them, the well-known SIFT detector within the field of visual odometry
was tested for its robustness and precision, however not much used in real-time
applications because it requires high levels of processing. With SIFT, percentage
errors of 65% were obtained with differences of up to 15 m with respect to the
actual distance traveled. When the levels of illumination fall considerably, in the
experiments, a variation of 557 lx was registered at 70 lx; the FAST algorithm showed
deficiencies in the estimation of the path with a difference of 10 m with respect to
the real one. However, the Harris and Shi-Tomasi detectors showed differences of
3 m for the Harris case and barely 30 cm for the Shi-Tomasi detector. In this way,
it is concluded that the ideal detector for the implemented system is the Shi-Tomasi
corner detector due to its precision and also allows to have an optimized algorithm
for an embedded system such as a smartphone. The algorithms of visual odometry
allow to estimate the translation and rotation of the camera attached to a mobile
agent.

References

1. Aguilar, W.G., Luna, M.A., Ruiz, H., Moya, J.F., Luna, M.P., Abadm V., Parra, H.: Statistical
abnormal crowd behavior detection and simulation for real-time applications. In: International
Conference on Intelligent Robotics and Applications, pp. 671–682 (2017)
2. Hofmann-Wellenhof, B., Lichtenegger, H., Collins, J.: Global Positioning System : Theory and
Practice. Springer, Berlin (2001)
74 W. G. Aguilar et al.

3. ¿Por qué no funciona el GPS dentro de un edificio?/ Pretexsa.com. Available: http://www.

pretexsa.com/RMRv9D2M.html
4. Yamaguchi, K.: Vehicle ego-motion estimation and moving object detection using a monocular
camera, pp. 18–21 (2006)
5. Bevilacqua, M., Tsourdos, A., Starr, A.: Egomotion estimation for monocular camera visual
odometer
6. Hannuksela, J., Barnard, M., Sangi, P., Heikkilä, J.: Camera-based motion recognition for
mobile interaction. In: ISRN signal process, vol. 2011, Article ID 425621 (2011)
7. Ágila, J., Link, B., Smith, P., Wehrle, K.: Indoor navigation on wheels (and without) using
smartphones (2012)
8. Nist, D., Bergen, J.: Visual odometry (2004)
9. Doctoral, T.: Un Sistema de Odometría Visual Monocular bajo Restricciones de Tiempo Real
(2015)
10. Aguilar, W.G., Angulo, C.: Real-time model-based video stabilization for microaerial vehicles.
Neural Process. Lett. 43(2), 459–477 (2016)
11. Aguilar, W.G., Morales, S.G.: 3D environment mapping using the Kinect V2 and path planning
based on RRT algorithms. Electronics 5(4), 70 (2016)
12. Aguilar, W.G., Salcedo, V.S., Sandoval, D.S., Cobeña, B.: Developing of a video-based model
for UAV autonomous navigation. Latin American Workshop on Computational Neuroscience,
pp. 94–105 (2017)
13. Aguilar, W.G., Casaliglla, V.P., Polit, J.L.: Obstacle avoidance based-visual navigation for
micro aerial vehicles. Electronics 6(1), 10 (2017)
14. Aguilar, W.G., Cobeña, B., Rodriguez, G., Salcedo, V.S., Collaguazo, B.: SVM and RGB-D
sensor based gesture recognition for UAV control. In: International conference on augmented
reality, virtual reality and computer graphics, pp. 713–719 (2018)
15. Aguilar, W.G., Manosalvas, J.F., Guillén, J.A., Collaguazo, B.: Robust motion estimation based
on multiple monocular camera for indoor autonomous navigation of micro aerial vehicle. In:
International conference on augmented reality, virtual reality and computer graphics, pp. 547–
561 (2018)
16. Fraundorfer, B.F., Scaramuzza, D.: Visual odometry (2012)
17. Aguilar, W.G., Angulo, C.: Real-time video stabilization without phantom movements for
micro aerial vehicles. EURASIP J. Image Video Process. 2014(1), 46 (2014)
18. Szeliski, R.: Computer vision: algorithms and applications (2010)
19. Orbea, D., Moposita, J., Aguilar, W.G., Paredes, M., León, G., Jara-Olmedo, A.: Math model
of UAV multi rotor prototype with fixed wing aerodynamic structure for a flight simulator. In:
International conference on augmented reality, virtual reality and computer graphics, pp. 199–
211 (2017)
20. Nist, D.: An efficient solution to the five-point relative pose problem 3. The five-point algorithm
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample
Collection System for Military Robot

Orlando Caiza, Wilbert G. Aguilar, Pablo Albán, and Yéssica Fernández

Abstract The present work corresponds to the development of a sample recollection

system for the exteriors robotic platform belonging to the manufacturing laboratory.
The main objective of the project is the implementation of a manipulator capable of
solving an automated process using artificial vision provided by the Kinect device,
which provides the necessary parameters such as, required deepness for object loca-
tion, all this by using free software. Through the construction of an anthropomorphic
arm with six degrees of freedom which was designed for the future integration into
the project realized by Obando and Sánchez which is mobile platform, an embed-
ded system for object recollection was obtained. Additionally, a graphic interface
was implemented which allows the user to visualize the recognized objects giving
the user the possibility to control the object recollection operation on a controlled
environment, the objects to be taken must be located within a predetermine work
area.

Keywords Object manipulation · Artificial vision · Anthropomorphic robot

dynamics · Kinematic decoupling

1 Introduction

The reason for the development of a sample collection system integrated to the
robotic outdoor platform is written. The problem is analyzed giving importance to the

O. Caiza · W. G. Aguilar (B) · P. Albán

CICTE, DEEL, Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí 171103, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
W. G. Aguilar
FIS, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
GREC, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
Y. Fernández
Universidad Nacional de Educación, Azogues 030105, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 75
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_7
76 O. Caiza et al.

respective resolution. For this, the study of the conditions of the existing platform is
planned and proceeded to condition it according to the dimensions of the manipulator
robot, define the objectives to be met and determine the scope of the project.

2 Design of an Object Manipulator Robot for the Robotic

Platform

The Quality Matrix is developed for collecting information about the needs and
requirements of the system operator. According to the procedure described on [1],
the characteristics of the system to be developed are shown in Table 1.
Subsystems capable of fulfilling one or more defined technical characteristics are
specified in Table 2.

Table 1 QFD matrix results

M T. C. P. M T. C. P.
1 Frame and manipulator material 241 6 Modular system 161
2 Terminal with object 219 7 Degrees of freedom 152
manipulator
3 Reduced cost 200 8 Industrial security 122
4 Robots geometry 192 9 Free software 111
5 Robust 191 10 Interface designed according to 108
GEDIS guide
T.C. technical characteristics; P punctuation, M milestone

Table 2 Subsystems defined for design

No. S. F. M. No. S. F. M.
1 Structure of Orientation 1-7 4 Robot Referential 7
the and position positioning position of
manipulator (object algorithm the robot
robot manipulator)
2 Power Power 1, 2, 3, 6 5 Artificial vision Shapes 4, 8
system and algorithm recognition
actuators and objects
positioning
3 Control Control 3, 8, 9 6 Human–machine Interaction 8, 10
system, interface with the
commands user
and data
sending
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection … 77

Table 3 Concept approach

No. Concept Characteristics
3 • Vision is independent of robot’s structure
• Moderately light structure
• Modular architecture pieces
• Low loading capability
• Reduced number of pieces

According to [2], the process to design a product presents two stages:

• Preliminary design: The best design options are exposed, evaluated and chosen.
• Final design: The designs of the selected concepts are explained.
On the preliminary phase, several designs were contemplated; the one shown in
Table 3 was selected.
The main aspects considered for the posterior design and development of the
structure are shown on Table 4.
The modular architecture will allow the robot’s movements to achieve the six
degrees of freedom. According to the analysis done, we selected a structural square
profile with 20 mm of section length and 2 mm thickness. It is shown in Fig. 1.
Now, with the selected profile, the safety factor is recalculated:

n = S · σ A36 · Mmax−1 = 700 · 250 · 10, 2900−1 = 1.7 (1)

Table 5 summarizes the static analysis of the robot’s elements.

Being a priority to keep the arm’s weight at minimum, it selected PLA as the
construction material for the manipulator robot’s structure, and it selected aluminum
for the longest slots.

Table 4 Manipulator robot’s structure required parameters

Parameter Characteristic
Arm configuration The anthropomorphic configuration is selected because it allows to
obtain better orientation and complex movements with greater ease
Load capacity The expected load capacity is 500 g maximum
Degrees of freedom Six degrees of freedom are necessary; three of them define the position
and the remaining three orient the robot’s manipulator
Speed The speed reached by the end effector would approach to 0.8 m/s. The
opening time of the manipulator will be set to 12 s
Maximum reach The distance required to reach an object at the base of the platform refers
to a maximum of 75 cm
78 O. Caiza et al.

Fig. 1 Manipulator robot’s base (a). Selected profile for the robot’s base characteristics (b) [3]

Table 5 Static analysis of the robot’s elements

Element Part Static analysis Element Part Static analysis
results results
Motor’s base σ VM : 2.55 MPa Base σ VM : 5.67 MPa
ε: 1.03E−03 ε: 1.675E−01
δ: δ:
4.9E−01 mm 2.55E−01 mm
Actuator’s σ VM : Base axis σ VM : 4.45 kPa
base 0.563 MPa ε:
ε: 0.493E−03 0.01055E−06
δ: δ:
3.096E−03 mm 7.063E−03 mm
Link’s σ VM : 1.08 MPa Actuator’s σ VM : 1.58 MPa
holder ε: 0.286E−03 holder ε: 5.578E−06
δ: δ:
45.9E−03 mm 5.024E−03 mm

Forces on axis analysis.

Shearing force and flector moment were analyzed; forces diagram on the motor
axis of the base is shown in Fig. 2.
According to the procedures shown, tangential (Fy), radial (Fx) and reaction
forces on the axis (Ay, By, Az, Bz) are:
   
F y F x Az Bz Ay By = 2.2 1.6 2.69 2.2 1.96 1.6 (2)

Analysis to reduce the diameter.

The analysis is performed on the shoulder of the axis, due to the stress concen-
tration. On Fig. 3 is shown the tangential force at 12 mm and the radial force also at
12 mm.
The resultant moment at the point of stress concentration is:

Ma = 0.01762 + 0.01282 = 0.0128 Nm (3)
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection … 79

Fig. 2 Forces diagram on the motor axis of the base

Fig. 3 Tangential and radial forces at 12 mm

According to [4], the first iteration diameter, employing a safety factor or 2.5 and
ED-Goodman criterion, is:

d = 0.011 m = 11.44 mm (4)

A standard size of 20 mm is selected.

The von Mises stressis:
    
σa 0.035 MPa
= (5)
σm 0.28 MPa

Considering the new diameter size of 20 mm and the recalculation of Marin size
factor, the safety factor obtained using ED-Goodman criterion is:

n = 515.54 (6)

This value is enough for designing the axis.

80 O. Caiza et al.

Fig. 4 Rollover analysis

Table 6 Elements that

Piece Model Piece Model
conform the final effector
Gripper’s base Slot 2

Gripper’s base Gripper’s

support transmission
coupling
Gripper’s Slot 3
coupling

Slot 1 Pincer

On Fig. 4 are drawn the maximum forces (F) and the position components (dx,
dy) of the CG with respect to the joint. A standard safety factor of 1.5 was used.
The minimum weight for avoiding rollover must be 3 kg, and the weight of the
real structure is 4 kg; so, it is enough for not rollover.
A sub-actuated mechanism is selected; it can handle high load objects. Its open-
ing–closing gripper’s time is about 15 s. It is economic and has less than 20
pieces.
In Table 6, the elements that conform the final effector are shown.
The final effector once assembled will look like the one shown in Fig. 5. PLA is
used for the most complex parts and acrylic for the simpler slots.

Fig. 5 Final effector of the

manipulator robot
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection … 81

The general methodology for robots of n degrees of freedom described in [5] was
employed. It gives the anthropomorphic robot parameters shown in Table 7.
The following simulation was performed (Figs. 6 and 7).
The dynamic behavior of the robot increases the torque’s value when it reaches a
specific position. For the shoulder joint, shown in Fig. 7 (medium), maximum torque
is needed when the angle oscillates on high values respect to the vertical. For the
robot’s elbow, it does not require high torque, but, for low angles, with respect to the
vertical, the torque tends to maximize, Fig. 7 (Right).
Considering the kinematic effects over the grip force required by the pincer
described in [6] and following the formulae to find the torque when employing
square screws described in [7, 8], the following parameters are obtained employing
a safety factor of 1.5, Table 8.
According to the parameters required, the following actuators were selected
(Table 9).
The requirements for the microcontroller are shown on Table 10.
The most suitable development platforms are: Arduino, Raspberry and ODROID
because of their low cost, free software requirement and availability on the market.
Data transmission media requirements are shown in Table 11.
The chosen microcontroller was Arduino because it satisfies the requirements,
Table 10, and it possesses analogic capacity which Raspberry and ODROID do not.
Serial communication was chosen because it makes possible and effective to control
the robot [9].
The sensor to be employed is Kinect; it allows to create a closed-loop system by
using the object position visualization which permits to do the system main function,
object recollection. It is necessary to solve the object’s position in space using the
cameras and sensors available on the Kinect dispositive [10].
The main purpose of the algorithm is the identification of objects by colors. The
recognized colors are green and yellow; the operations that are done to convert RGB
to HSV are described in [11, 12], and the result of the algorithm for the artificial
vision control system is shown in Fig. 8.
For obtaining the angles of the joints and positioning the actuator, Denavit–Harten-
berg method and Inverse Cinematic are used. The fixed arguments of the manipulator
robot are shown in Table 12.
Articulation angles were obtained using the algorithm shown in Fig. 9 [13–16].
Python with the numpy and rospy libraries is used for programming on ROS envi-
ronment. D-H algorithm function is repeated the number of times necessary, so the
robot can reach the objective position.

3 Test and Results

Results are shown on Tables 13, 14 and 15.

Video results are provided on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE5gajDm830.
 82

Table 7 Anthropomorphic robot parameters

Parameter ls1 ls2 ms1 ms2 ms3 cs2 cs3 I1 I2
Value 0.34 0.52 0.62 1.77 1.77 0.14 0.28 0.0075 0.05
Unit m m kg kg kg m m kg m2 kg m2
Parameter I3 b1 b2 fc1 fc2 g τj1 τj2 τj3
Value 0.05 0.48 0.48 * 1.734 9.81 18 15 15
Unit kg m2 Nms Nms Nm Nm m/s2 Nm Nm Nm
s lot; j joint; l length; m mass; I moment of inertia; b friction coefficient; fc coulomb coefficient; g gravity acceleration; τ torque; c mass center
*7.17 if dθ1/dt > 0 and 8.05 if dθ1/dt < 0
O. Caiza et al.
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection … 83

Fig. 6 Block diagram of the model

Fig. 7 Theta 1 response of the model at T 1 = 28 N m (left). Theta 2 response of the model at T 2
= 16 N m (medium). Theta 3 response of the model at T 3 = 12 N m (right)

Table 8 Summary of needed parameters for the actuators

Motor on elbow articulation (rotation)
Actuator Torque Speed Power Torque Speed Power
(N m) (rpm) (W) (N m) (rpm) (W)
Gripper’s 0.17 110 9.4 Motor 3 0.192 196.906 3.97
motor
Wrist 0.00945 353.706 0.35 Motor 4 12 41.062 20.91
motor
Axis 2.53 23.873 6.33 Motor 5 16 31.322 52.63
motor
(motor 2)
Motor 6 0.0128 32.322 0.421

4 Conclusions

Research allowed the development of an object recollection system for integration

with the exterior robotic platform that belongs to the DECEM’s manufacturing Lab.
An anthropomorphic robot with six degrees of freedom was designed and built, and
84 O. Caiza et al.

Table 9 Technical characteristic of the required and selected motors

Motor Power (W) Torque (N m) Speed (rpm) Selected motor (actuator)
Motor1 0.421 0.0128 35.3 Motor RDS3115
Motor2 52.63 16 24 ASMC 03B
Motor3 20.91 12 19 ASMC 03B
Motor4 3.97 8.96 10 Tower Pro MG959 Servo
Motor5 6.3 18.13 6.4 RDS 3115
Motor6 0.35 10.07 19.6 Tower Pro MG959 Servo
Gripper’s motor 9 0.17 110 Tower Pro MG959 Servo

Table 10 Microcontroller requirements

Requirements Description Requirements Description
SPI and USB For communication At least 7 PWM For servomotors
interface outputs control
At least two analog For sensor lecture Minimum clock speed 16 MHz
inputs

Table 11 Data transmission media

Serial Bluetooth Serial Bluetooth
communication communication communication communication
Communication Synchronic/A Synchronic/A Connection Wired Wireless
type synchronic synchronic type
Transmission 115 Mb/s 24 Mb/s Maximum 640 bits 343 bits
speed buffer
Reach (max) 1200 m 30 m

it can recollect samples even in a working area below the reference level of its base.
The artificial vision algorithm facilitates recognition of space position using specific
colors perception, such as yellow and green; the parameters for the proper positioning
of the manipulator robot also depend on environment light conditions. Positioning
algorithm provides the embedded system the ability to locate effector’s end in the
position obtained from the artificial vision system. Tests results are: repetitiveness
of 80%, positioning error 2%, and maximum load capacity is 0.5 kg meeting the
requirement raised by the user.
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection … 85

Fig. 8 Artificial vision control system algorithm

Table 12 Fixed arguments of the manipulator robot

Slot θi di ai αi Slot θi di ai
1 θ1 + 0.5π 0.18 m 0 +0.5π 4 (θ4) 0.39 m 0
2 (θ2) 0 0.38 0 5 (θ5) 0 0
3 (θ3) 0 0 +0.5π 6 (θ6) 0.26 m 0
86 O. Caiza et al.

Fig. 9 Object recollecting robot positioning algorithm

Table 13 Lifting capacity tests

Weight (kg) Distance (cm) Accomplish Weight (kg) Distance (cm) Accomplish
0.1 70 YES 0.4 70 YES
0.2 60 YES 0.5 65 YES
0.3 50 YES 0.6 60 NO

Table 14 Repeatability tests

Objective Try Time (s) Variation Objective Try Time (s) Variation
(cm) (mm) (cm) (mm)
Point 1 1 6 0 Point 2 1 7 0
2 6 1 2 7 1
3 6 2 3 7 2
4 6 1 4 7 1
Kinect and Manipulator-Based Sample Collection … 87

Table 15 Repeatability errors on point 1 and 2

Try E. Value (cm) M. Value (cm) Abs. error (%) Rel. error (%)
Point 1 Point 2 Point 1 Point 2 Point 1 Point 2
1 40 40 40 0 0 0 0
2 40 40.1 40.2 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.5
3 40 40.2 40.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5
4 40 40.1 40.3 0.1 0.3 0.25 0.74
M measured; E expected

References

1. Caiza Collaguazo, E.O.: Desarrollo de un sistema de recolección de muestras para la plataforma

robótica de exteriores perteneciente al Laboratorio de Manufactura del DECEM. Universidad
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(2008)
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Barcelona (2001)
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tasks. Springer, Berlín (2005)
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(1998)
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of UAV multi rotor prototype with fixed wing aerodynamic structure for a flight simulator.
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pp. 199–211 (2017)
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pp 94–105 (2017)
Autonomous Navigation Based
on Proportional Controller with GPS
Setpoint for UAV in External
Environments

Darwin Merizalde, Wilbert G. Aguilar, and Marco Calderón

Abstract In this paper, we propose the implementation of an autonomous navigation

system for quadcopter UAVs through a trajectory established by GPS as a setpoint,
where the control system, in this case, we will use the proportional one, will guide
the UAV through said plotted trajectory, achieving the objective precisely, which is a
very useful application in military operations since a system of this nature is required
to carry out observation and recognition missions for decision making and to have
clear knowledge of the scenario that is lived. To control a trajectory, the system
communicates by means of a computer, acquires data by means of GPS on board
and transfers them to the PC to be processed by means of calculations of conversion
of distance and angle systems using global positioning data and from there, sends
orders and flight plans by means of a proportional controller that allows corrections
to be made with tolerances established by the controller to follow your flight plan and
reach the exact point. Once reached the point, the system is validated for its automatic
return, following the path of return drawn and then concludes with the landing that
will be validated by artificial vision; even though the GPS system has a certain degree
of accuracy, it is required to recognize a base and that you make your descent at the
base where you started your flight plan, through the UAV camera vision, keeping in
the system an image pattern that when identified by a certain number of points, will
fulfill a landing action, ending the mission.

Keywords UAV · Autonomous · Flight · Navigation · Landing

D. Merizalde · W. G. Aguilar (B) · M. Calderón

CICTE, DEEL, Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
W. G. Aguilar
FIS, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
GREC, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 89
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_8
90 D. Merizalde et al.

1 Introduction

Thanks to the advancement of technology and the commercial distribution of UAVs,

the use of drones has been evidenced, which is why in this document, we will discuss
the importance of certain latest technology devices such as UAVs, technically named
micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) [1, 2], which have gained space in the field
of research and have become very useful resources to fulfill certain specific missions
in any field and environment, whether civil or military [3, 4]. At the moment, it has
been seen that many people manipulate UAV by remote control, and it is incredible
to observe the flexibility of movement and the ease to enter sectors that are out of
the reach of any user, allowing you to better visualize and analyze your environment
through an onboard camera [5, 6]. It is important to mention that it is not only human
manipulation that makes this type of resource essential, but also the use of this
medium autonomously. This is the essence of this investigation since it is necessary
for UAVs to carry out missions autonomously only with the sending of a single
order so that later the device fulfills the task and performs itself according to the
order issued, using its stability controllers to avoid and correct the errors during the
journey, so that later it returns with all the requested information landing safely to
the exit point [5, 6].
In an operation or task to be carried out through UAV, there is a very important
factor that is the mission and constitutes the essence and the reason why these tech-
nological resources are used, thus leading to the reach of the objectives required for
those who need certain information that UAVs can provide [7, 8]. It is necessary
to emphasize that the fulfillment of some mission or task through the use of UAVs
is carried out in order to have a reach to certain areas where it is impossible for
the human being to have domain of space, in this case, airspace, since that to have
aerial visualization, it has always been necessary to have mobile resources of difficult
physical and economic reach. For UAV operators, they need to have some training
for the proper management of these, becoming a long-term investment to achieve the
correct domain and operation to start it and fulfill a specific mission. This technology
of micro-UAVs has allowed the human being to have access to visualize the entire
environment that surrounds us from an aerial perspective and thus know everything
that surrounds us and obtain data to process them according to needs [5, 6].
To give a possible solution to the problem raised, it is proposed to carry out an
autonomous navigation system capable of following any trajectory set by a GPS
route by means of an appropriate control action for this, as for the altitude parameter,
it can be preset by the user so that the problem of obstacles does not exist during its
route; a return will be applied that takes as a base the vector 0 where the UAV began
its flight as a starting point, so that at that point, it makes a landing by artificial vision
considering a base image which will be recognized by the camera device [5, 6]. At
the time of landing, it is necessary to do it through artificial vision since the accuracy
of the GPS systems is not very optimal to find the starting point, the vision system is
based on the recognition of a target, and it can be. This is the symbol of a helipad or
an emblem already pre-designed and loaded into the executing program [9, 10]. The
Autonomous Navigation Based on Proportional Controller … 91

recognition is based on the identification of points according to a pattern established

in the digital image where the contrast and abrupt change of colors will be recorded,
marking such a dimming, making a comparison and establishing a minimum of points
so that when exceeding This threshold will give way to a specific task; in this case,
it is to land the UAV; otherwise, it will continue in the search for the desired pattern
[9, 10].

2 Related Works to the Subject

This document emphasizes the autonomy of the UAV in external environments; since
for interiors, it requires more precision, adjustments and programming methods for
its best performance [11, 12]. For this, UAV requires very high precision and very
fast location to flight in any environment to complete any mission, through a flight
methodology that follows certain guidelines and steps ordered for proper execution
[1, 5, 11]. For the mission, in this case, it is necessary to have a GPS module with
which you can have a setpoint to follow a path in the space where you need to fly.
As for the landing, it can be seen that there are different methodologies to process
and execute this action, and the most option is the artificial vision that collects
data through its onboard camera and allows obtaining necessary information for the
process of executing an order. Successfully executing the orders and actions of the
UAV will depend on the type of programming and the control action that the user
can use, having enough freedom to occupy the tools that have been developed over
time.
Computer vision is the method used for target detection; in this sense, a computer
can detect an image based on the variation of colors, and the camera becomes a sensor
that provides images with a set of values which denominate pixels and represent as
a whole the dimension of photography. The representation of an image in grayscale
can be seen in the following figure; each pixel has a value in numbers that varies
proportionally according to the intensity of the color, and the identification of the
numerical value is done by means of a software programmed for the detection of an
image in pixels [13, 14].

3 Our Flight Navigation Method

The flight methodology for the fulfillment of the mission is established in four
important phases which we will mention: Link and Communication, Takeoff and
Navigation, Homework and Return Landing.
The first is related to the pairing of the unit with the PC which, through the use of
its connection resources, allows the connection and communication between devices
that, through software and firmware, allow the understanding between the hardware
to fulfill the tasks designated by the operator.
92 D. Merizalde et al.

Fig. 1 Process of communication ground air

To have a clearer idea of the system, in Fig. 1, we proceed to show the ground air
link with the UAV [15–18].
The second phase is the most important since it will largely allow the development
of the mission since reaching the objective corresponds to 50% of it; for this, the
UAV will use GPS as a spatial orientation since it allows access to the data of global
positioning that can be managed from the computer. The controller is a very important
part of this phase; since for track monitoring, it is necessary to maintain a global line
that will act as a setpoint for the controller whatever it is to follow the path drawn
by the operator since certain disturbances such as wind, the movement of the earth,
among others would change the positioning data if this did not have an optimal
controller.
The fulfillment of the task is essential because it constitutes in itself the reason
for automating the UAV, since it specifies what the UAV is going to do and why
it should reach the marked point; for this, it must be programmed in an adequate
manner respecting the rules of use for professional purposes or service for humanity.
As for the last phase, it constitutes the final part of the entire mission, since it is an
uncomplicated task, but of great weight in the requirement, since it is very important
that the unit returns in optimal conditions and with the information that it contains
to be extracted and used in future operations; the fundamental part of the landing is
that the UAV recognizes its site, and usually, it must be the same from where it took
off, so that by means of object detection, it can land safely in any established field.
Once these four important phases have been mentioned, it can be defined as a
complete autonomous navigation system, capable of fulfilling any type of mission
entrusted and being able to receive several missions one after another, always taking
Autonomous Navigation Based on Proportional Controller … 93

into account certain limitations in UAVs such as they can be the energy factor of
the batteries or the required fuel. Making a comparison between the two modes of
UAV management, autonomous flight would be more convenient since it has greater
precision and greater orientation in the field to be used, since in a flight controlled
by an operator on the ground, he cannot know its exact position in the airspace since
it would be difficult for you to orient your UAV from a ground base with a manual
control, instead with a computer-controlled flight it is possible to obtain real-time data
and thus send it to the machine in real time so control your flight direction, orientation
and positioning in space, thus achieving an almost immediate response when having
deviations due to accusations of the natural disturbances of the environment, thus
obtaining a safe navigation.
Each movement is controlled according to the rotation of the propellers, their
direction and speed, which is given by supplying current to the motors that support
the propellers, thus giving rise and fall vertical movements, as well as pitching that
allows to move laterally left and right and wink function to establish the frontal and
backward movements of linear form. The combination of these motors will allow
the propellers to work alternately, allowing turning movements on their own axis,
clockwise and counterclockwise.
The angular variables are: φ which means roll represents the swing angle, and
this rotates around the x-axis, allowing the lateral, left and right displacements of
the quadcopter; the symbol θ which means pitch is representing the pitch angle
that revolves around the y-axis, and this angle will allow the front and backward
movement of the quadcopter, and finally, the symbol ψ which means yaw represents
the angle of rotation and revolves around the z-axis whose angle determines the 360°
direction of the quadcopter. With all this information, the motion matrices of the
Bebop 2 can already be obtained based on its dynamic reference frame with respect
to its inertial reference frame; by matching the reference frames, we can determine
the matrices with this equation.

R CO = R(x, φ) ∗ R(y, θ ) ∗ R(z, y) (1)

Replacing all the matrices, finally, a general matrix is obtained that will represent
the movement through space.
⎡ ⎤
cos y cos θ cos y sin θ sin φ − sin y cos φ cos y sin θ cos φ + sin y sin φ
R CO = ⎣ sin y cos θ sin y sin θ sin φ − cos y cos φ sin y sin θ cos φ + cos y sin φ ⎦
− sin θ cos θ sin φ cos θ cos φ
(2)

Once the UAV rotation matrix has been obtained, this matrix can be divided into
two subsystems that determine: The first is the position of the quadcopter at any point
in the three-dimensional space, and the second is the orientation of the quadcopter
in which it will determine the UAV course, always taking into account the UAV
reference frame with respect to its inertial reference frame. Taking into account the
94 D. Merizalde et al.

Table 1 Transfer functions

Axis Transfer function
of each axis of the Bebop 2
Height G(s) = 1
m∗s 2
l1
Pitching G(s) = l x ∗s 2
Rolling G(s) = l2
l y ∗s 2

Yaw G(s) = 1
l z ∗s 2

principle of the mass system without damping, the transfer functions can be obtained
for each of the UAV axes, thus being able to control any system through its input.
The transfer functions are as mentioned in Table 1.
With these transfer functions, modeling can be performed, and a digital controller
can be made by means of any programmer and thus determine the behavior of the
system and the responses of the controller for each variable of the represented model,
thus giving way to the creation of the algorithm that allows controlling the variables
to precisely follow the setpoint set by the GPS system.

4 Test Scores and Discussion

The proposed system has been tested and implemented in different environmental
scenarios obtaining adequate and increasingly optimal results in terms of navigation
accuracy, this being a reliable element to integrate a long distance mission where there
is no direct vision by the human being, navigating directly to the point, allowing the
user to save and optimize energy consumption for the fulfillment of any mission
safely. Before presenting the navigation trajectories, the algorithm has been set up
in quiet scenarios without wind and another with a certain amount of wind as proof
of the disturbances that nature causes and how the system responds to it.
Although the variables work together, the variables have been divided to represent
them independently; in order to visualize how the controller works, first, you will
obtain the graphical representations of height, latitude and length, respectively, and
verify how they change depending on flight time.
Here, we keep in mind the variable height where we can appreciate how it changes
as a function of time (Fig. 2; Table 2).
Here, we keep in mind the variable latitude where we can appreciate how it
changes as a function of time (Fig. 3; Table 3).
Here, we keep in mind the variable longitude where we can appreciate how it
changes as a function of time (Figs. 4, 5, 6 and 7; Tables 4, 5 and 6).
Allowing to determine that the controller allows a certain error threshold that is
noticeable in the face of wind disturbances (Fig. 8).
In the representation, it is observed that in favorable conditions, the system is of
smooth movement, but when wind disturbances are present, sudden movements can
be noticed in the flight; according to the analysis, the positioning correction due to
Autonomous Navigation Based on Proportional Controller … 95

Fig. 2 Comparison of variable height on stage without wind and winds

Table 2 Comparison of variable height on stage without wind and winds

Scenario Arrival time at maximum height Time of flight
1. Windless 1 min 3 min 20 s
2. Wind moderated 1 min 19.92 s 6 min 11.628 s

Fig. 3 Comparison of variable latitude on stage without wind and winds

Table 3 Comparison of variable latitude on stage without wind and winds

Scenario Time of arrival at the point of destination Time of arrival to the base
1. Windless 1 min 27 s 3 min 20 s
2. Wind moderated 2 min 41.57 s 6 min 11.628 s

the disturbances makes a greater consumption of battery being thus vulnerable to a

possible fall by wear of energy in the case of a longer route.
96 D. Merizalde et al.

Fig. 4 Comparison of variable longitude on stage without wind and winds

Fig. 5 Comparison of variable speed on stage without wind and winds

Fig. 6 Comparison of battery consumption on stage without wind and winds

Autonomous Navigation Based on Proportional Controller … 97

Fig. 7 Comparison of trajectory in 2D latitude and longitude on stage without wind and winds

Table 4 Comparison of variable longitude on stage without wind and winds

Scenario Time of arrival at the point of destination Time of arrival to the base
1. Windless 1 min 27 s 3 min 20 s
2. Wind moderated 2 min 41.57 s 6 min 11.628 s

Table 5 Comparison of variable speed on stage without wind and winds

Scenario Average speed (km/h) Average return speed (km/h)
1. Windless 70 70
2. Wind moderated 65 60

Table 6 Comparison of battery consumption on stage without wind and winds

Scenario Percentage when Percentage when Total consumption
starting the plan (%) ending the plan (%) (%)
1. Windless 64 52 12
2. Wind moderated 65 46

Fig. 8 Comparison of trajectory in 3D height latitude and longitude on stage without wind and
winds
98 D. Merizalde et al.

5 Conclusions and Future Works

The implemented system allows to carry out a mission where human vision has
no reach thanks to the fact that it has a camera on board. Based on the graphical
representations of the movement variables in three-dimensional space analyzed in
Sect. 4, the navigation system by a proportional controller is reliable and valid for any
environment. Based on the tables in Sect. 4, it can be determined that the autonomous
flight is very precise to reach the desired point taking into account the scope it should
have in terms of communication with the UAV and the battery reserve that must be
calculated to integrate any mission. The problem of battery consumption remains
a limitation in terms of the use of UAVs, so the controller tries to design that its
response to disturbances is as smooth as possible, thus avoiding sudden movements
that tend to consume more amount of energy.
For a future job, a better control action can be performed since it will allow
smoother control of the system and thus have a better optimization of the batteries,
to perform complete perimeter routes. Another work in the future can be done a
graphical interface of the system that will allow monitoring the UAV and verify its
position in real time, allowing to be found in case of loss or fall due to shocks and
energy expenditure.

References

1. Venkatesh, G.A., Sumanth, P., Jansi, K.R.: Fully autonomous UAV. In: Proceedings: 2017
International Conference on Technical Advancements in Computers and Communications,
ICTACC 2017, pp. 41–44, Oct 2017
2. Orbea, D., Moposita, J., Aguilar, W.G., Paredes, M., León, G., Jara-Olmedo, A.: Math model
of UAV multi rotor prototype with fixed wing aerodynamic structure for a flight simulator.
In: International Conference on Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics,
pp. 199–211 (2017)
3. Rathbun, D., Kragelund, S.: IEEE Xplore—an evolution based path planning algorithm for
autonomous motion of a UAV through uncertain environments. Digital Avionics (2002).
Available from: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=1052946%5Cnpapers2:
//publication/uuid/8479FE2D-6988-48FE-B714-669DA578E2E3
4. Aguilar, W.G., Morales, S.G.: 3D environment mapping using the Kinect V2 and path planning
based on RRT algorithms. Electronics 5(4), 70 (2016)
5. Sani, M.F., Karimian, G.: Automatic navigation and landing of an indoor AR. Drone quadrotor
using ArUco marker and inertial sensors. In: 1st International Conference on Computer and
Drone Applications: Ethical Integration of Computer and Drone Technology for Humanity
Sustainability, IConDA 2017, pp. 102–107, Jan 2018
6. Aguilar, W.G., Manosalvas, J.F., Guillén, J.A., Collaguazo, B.: Robust motion estimation based
on multiple monocular camera for indoor autonomous navigation of micro aerial vehicle.
In: International Conference on Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics,
pp. 547–561 (2018)
7. Rahman, M.F.A., Radzuan, S.M., Hussain, Z., Khyasudeen, M.F., Ahmad, K.A., Ahmad, F.,
et al.: Performance of loiter and auto navigation for quadcopter in mission planning application
using open source platform. In: Proceedings of 7th IEEE IEEE International Conference on
Control System, Computing and Engineering (ICCSCE), 2017, Nov 2017. pp. 342–347 (2018)
Autonomous Navigation Based on Proportional Controller … 99

8. Aguilar, W.G., Cobeña, B., Rodriguez, G., Salcedo, V.S., Collaguazo, B.: SVM and RGB-D
sensor based gesture recognition for UAV control. In: International Conference on Augmented
Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics, pp. 713–719 (2018)
9. Shang, J, Shi, Z.: Vision-based runway recognition for UAV autonomous landing. IJCSNS Int
J Comput Sci Netw Secur 7(3), 112 (2007). Available from: http://paper.ijcsns.org/07_book/
200703/20070317.pdf
10. Aguilar, W.G., Luna, M.A., Ruiz, H., Moya, J.F., Luna, M.P., Abad, V., Parra, H.: Statistical
abnormal crowd behavior detection and simulation for real-time applications. In: International
Conference on Intelligent Robotics and Applications, pp. 671–682 (2017)
11. Brockers, R., Hummenberger, M., Weiss, S., Matthies, L.: Towards autonomous navigation of
miniature UAV. IEEE Comput Soc Conf Comput Vis Pattern Recognit Work 645–51 (2014)
12. Aguilar, W.G., Salcedo, V.S., Sandoval, D.S., Cobeña, B.: Developing of a video-based model
for UAV autonomous navigation. Latin American Workshop on Computational Neuroscience,
pp. 94–105 (2017)
13. Imanberdiyev, N., Fu, C., Kayacan, E., Chen, I.M.: Autonomous navigation of UAV by using
real-time model-based reinforcement learning. In: 2016 14th International Conference on
Control, Automation, Robotics and Vision (ICARCV), Nov 2016, pp. 13–5 (2017)
14. Aguilar, W.G., Casaliglla, V.P., Polit, J.L.: Obstacle avoidance based-visual navigation for
micro aerial vehicles. Electronics 6(1), 10 (2017)
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micro aerial vehicles. EURASIP J. Image Video Process. 2014(1), 46 (2014)
16. Aguilar, W.G., Angulo, C.: Real-time model-based video stabilization for microaerial vehicles.
Neural Process. Lett. 43(2), 459–477 (2016)
17. Parrot. Dron Parrot Bebop 2 FPV|Sitio Web Official de Parrot [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2020 Jan
8]. Available from: https://www.parrot.com/es/drones/parrot-bebop-2-fpv
18. Roberts, C.: GPS guided autonomous drone, 32 (2016). Available from: https://www.evansville.
edu/majors/eecs/downloads/projects2016/CameronRobertsReport.pdf
Monte Carlo-Based Localization
for Kidnapped Robot Problem

Wilbert G. Aguilar, Darwin Merizalde, Marco Calderón, and Alexis Carrera

Abstract In this paper, we propose an algorithm for kidnapped robot problem based
on Monte Carlo localization in known map using laser 360°, and initial sample in all
global localization. We present performance y real-time video results. Our proposal
is evaluated and compared with other works.

Keywords Kidnapped robot problem · Monte Carlo localization · Beam model

sensor, UGVs

1 Introduction

Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) have experimented an increasing interest in

several research topics within localization and autonomous navigation [1]. Common
applications in localization and autonomous navigation include slam [2–4], path
planning [5–8], odometry [9, 10], global localization [11], and others.
A common problem in autonomous localization and navigation is the kidnapped
robot problem, which consists of the mobile robot being able to locate itself in its
global position from any position at the moment of it is start or kidnapped. In [12],
talks about algorithms used for the resolution of this problem, and using a comparative
table, we find the Monte Carlo localization (MCL), which is based on a particle filter,
is a robust algorithm for this problem.
There are several works to solve the kidnapped robot problem using different
algorithms. The best known can be found in [12] and they are EKF, MHT, coarse
grid, fine grid, MCL [14, 16], where the latter is the most used by researchers and

W. G. Aguilar (B) · D. Merizalde · M. Calderón · A. Carrera

CICTE, DEEL, Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
W. G. Aguilar
FIS, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
GREC, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 101
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_9
102 W. G. Aguilar et al.

therefore has some modifications such as [15], there are also works that use new
algorithms such as MSAC [13].
In terms of odometry, investigations are carried out depending on the configura-
tions of the mobile robot, such as [9, 10], or methods with sensors such as odometry
using a laser sensor [17].
Our approach is resolve the kidnapped robot problem based on the Monte Carlo
location (MCL), on a known map using a 360° laser with the theory of beams sensors
model, and our theory about minimum sampling to start the MCL algorithm, to get
a minimum error in the final location.
This paper is organized as follows: our proposal for localization for kidnapped
robot problem is described in Sect. 2. In Sect. 3, we present the experimental results.
Finally, conclusions and future works are presented in Sect. 4.

2 Our Approach

Our proposal to recover the localization of the robot in 2D is use the algorithm Monte
Carlo localization (MCL) with KDL-Sampling and a 360° laser sensor with the beam
model sensor, and will create samples for all the map random with a simple sampling
theory to acquire the initial sample, which consists of creating 40 samples per square
meter of map.
Monte Carlo Localization with KDL-Sampling:
For resolving kidnapped robot problem, we use Monte Carlo localization (MCL)
algorithm, the basic idea is approximate the subsequent state of a set of sample states
or particles xt[m] , and in a summarized way, it consists of a two-step algorithm [18].
Initialization: At time t = 0, draw M particles according to p(x0 ) = X 0
Recursion: At time t > 0, generate
 a particle
 xt[m] for each particle xt−1
[m]
by drawing
[m]
from the actuation model p xt |u t , xt−1 = X t . Then, draw M particles from X t ,
draw with a probability proportional to measurement p(z t |xt[m] ). Call the resulting
set of X t .
For sampling, we use KDL-Sampling, the key idea is to bound the error introduced
by the sample-based representation of the particle filter. To derive this bound, we
assume that the true posterior is given by a discrete, piecewise constant distribution
such as a discrete density tree or a multidimensional histogram [19, 20]. If we choose
the number of samples n as [21]:

1 2
n= x (1)
2 k−1,1−δ
A good approximation of (1) is:
  3
k−1 2 2
n= 1− + z 1−δ (2)
2 9(k − 1) 9(k − 1)
Monte Carlo-Based Localization for Kidnapped Robot Problem 103

where z1−δ is the upper 1 − δ quantile of the standard normal N(0, 1) distribution
and  is upper bound on the K.
Combining these two analyzes we obtain the algorithm used in our proposal.

where: X t = Estimated position; u t = Control Variable z t = Measurement;n =

number of samples
First, we initialize all variables equal to 0, then we start the number of samples
equal to the Minitial . In line 4 of the algorithm, we have the estimation of the movement
of each sample, depending on the control variable, which in our case is the odometry
of the robot. In line 5, the weight of the sample is analyzed, in line 6, the weight is
added to the normalization factor, and it is inserted in X t (line 7). Then, the sample is
entered in a discrete distribution dependent on the weight and it has an upper bound
ε on the K-L distance.
104 W. G. Aguilar et al.

In line 9–11, the factor k is analyzed, and here, we assume that a bin of the
multinomial distribution has support if its probability is above a certain threshold.
This way the number k will decrease with the certainty of the state estimation. In
line 13, the number of samples needed by the process in its next stage is calculated
using the factors of the multinomial distribution, for our proposal, the maximum
error between the true distribution and the estimated distribution, should not exceed
0.05.
Then, on line 15–17, the weight of the sample is normalized, and the most prob-
able estimated x positions are analyzed according to the weight of the sample and
maintained and added to the X t positions, while the least probable ones are erased
and they are resampling in the most probable positions.
As the MCL is an algorithm that estimates the position according to the odometry
of the robot, it can present high positioning errors of the robot when problem have
been solved the problem, and give a false position, if it does not start with a number
of acceptable samples for the map. For tests carried out in this bibliography [12],
it is necessary to have more samples for greater precision, so infinite samples are
required, but since it is not possible in real world, a certain number of samples must
be given to start the problem to be resolved with great precision and at the same time
not force the processing of the robot.
Our approach for the number of initial samples in the MCL algorithm consists of
creating forty samples in each square meter of known map.

Minitial = 40 ∗ A (3)

where: Minitial = Number of samples in time = 0;

A = the number of square meter in known map
Beam Model Sensor:
This method has the central task to determine P(z|x), the probability of a measure-
ment z given that the robot is at position x, using in step 5 of algorithm KDL-Sampling
with MCL. For that, we have four equations represented a probability P(z|x) [12].
 2
−
1 z − z exp
1 2b
Phit (z|x, m) = n √ e (4)
2π b
Punexp (z|x, m) = nλe−λz (5)

n
Prand (z|x, m) = (6)
z max
n
Pmax (z|x, m) = (7)
z small
Monte Carlo-Based Localization for Kidnapped Robot Problem 105

⎛ ⎞T ⎛ ⎞
αhit Phit (z|x, m)
⎜ αunexp ⎟ ⎜ Punexp (z|x, m) ⎟
P(z|x, m) = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜
⎝ αmax ⎠ ⎝ Pmax (z|x, m) ⎠
⎟ (8)
αrand Prand (z|x, m)

Then, the constant proposals would be the following:

For Laser Scan (Beam model Sensor):

Laser max beams = 100

Laser max range = 6.0 (m)

αhit = 0.45

αunexp = 0.05

αmax = 0.05

αrand = 0.45

b = 0.2

λ = 0.1

For Algorithm:
Initial sampling dependent on the map area:

Minitial = 40 ∗ A

Number of samples using KDL-Sampling

z 1−δ = 0.99

 = 0.05
106 W. G. Aguilar et al.

3 Results and Discussion

The robot built to perform the tests has a linear velocity of 0.2 m/s, an angular velocity
of 2 rad/s, which also govern the update of the algorithm, since the algorithm is
updated with the movement of the robot. First, the results obtained by the tests in
different places with different surfaces are presented in the following sequence of
images of Fig. 1, where the time elapsed since the start of the recovery process of
the kidnapped robot problem is also described; the actual position of the robot is
presented, then a comparison of the results obtained from the time and the error is
presented at the end of the measurement, where the calculated error is:

e = |zr eal − x| (9)

wher e z real = measurement taken from a front wall to the robot;

x = Measure taken in the program with built-in measuring tool.
Then, we describe the results compared with other related works; however, you
cannot make a comparison of time with respect to such jobs because they depend on
the speed of the robot.
Error in model b:
The error is presented in a map of 125 m2 in Table 1, to then compare it with errors
in other related works in subjectively large maps given that it has no measurement.

e = |z real − x|

Totalerror position = ex2 + e2y = 0.158 m

Comparison with related works.

The error of the position in the final state of the position estimation is compared
with results obtained by Dierter Fox in particle filters for mobile robot localization
[22] in Table 2, where in the reference we have multi-robot and single robot compared
with our approach.
Video results are provided on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FEfAq6JhJg.

4 Conclusions and Future Work

Our proposal for the recovery of the position for kidnapped robot problem has a better
estimate with respect to single robot with respect to the position error, however, with
respect to the multi-robot, it has a lower estimate as shown in Table 2, but these
results are subjective because the number of samples of each algorithm must also be
measured and compared with the known map surface.
The algorithm works correctly, because it comes to converge in an estimated final
position, and thanks to the KLD-Sampling allows to reduce the number of dependent
Monte Carlo-Based Localization for Kidnapped Robot Problem 107

a.1) b.1)
a.1) Algorithm test on known map of size 9x6 m =>
b.1) Algorithm test on known map of size 12x10 m =>

a.2) b.2)
a.2) t=5s time after the process started
b.2) t= 24 s time after the process started

a.3) b.3)
a.3) t=19 s time after the process started
b.3) t=37s time after the process started

a.4) b.4)
a.4) t=23s time after the process started
b.1) t=49 s time after the process started

Fig. 1 Results of our approach

108 W. G. Aguilar et al.

Table 1 Error estimated

Measure with respect to the origin of Position x (m) Position Y (m) Angular θ (rad)
the map
Real 0.96 4.26 6.17
Estimated 1.01 4.11 6.25
Error 0.05 0.15 0.08

Table 2 Compared with

Algorithm Error position
other work
Single robot [22] 1000 cm
Multi-robot [22] 2 cm
Algorithm KLD-Sampling with MCL 15.8 cm

samples to the estimation of the robot, with that in the end the processing is much
smaller than at the beginning of the algorithm.
This algorithm can be combined with the adaptive Monte Carlo localization
(AMCL) which allows to generate random samples to recover the position of a
possible measurement error, given that, if the robot is misplaced, generating random
samples can allow finding a position with more likely than the current one.

Acknowledgements This work is part of the project perception and localization system for
autonomous navigation of rotor micro-aerial vehicle in GPS-denied environments, VisualNav-
Drone, 2016-PIC-024, from the Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, directed by Dr. Wilbert
G. Aguilar.

References

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ization and autonomous navigation. Int. J. Comput. Vision 74(3), 237–260 (2007). https://doi.
org/10.1007/s11263-006-0023-y
2. Savaria, D. T., Balasubramanian, R. (2010). V-SLAM: vision-based simultaneous localization
and map building for an autonomous mobile robot. 2010 IEEE Conference on Multisensor
Fusion and Integration for Intelligent Systems (MFI), pp. 1–6. http://doi.org/10.1109/MFI.
2010.5604466
3. Aguilar, W.G., Casaliglla, V.P., Polit, J.L.: Obstacle avoidance based-visual navigation for
micro aerial vehicles. Electronics 6(1), 10 (2017)
4. Leonard, J. J., Durrant-Whyte, H. F. (1991). Simultaneous map building and localization for
an autonomous mobile robot. In: Proceedings IROS ’91: IEEE/RSJ international workshop
on intelligent robots and systems ’91, (91), pp. 1442–1447. http://doi.org/10.1109/IROS.1991.
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5. Garcia, M.A.P., Montiel, O., Castillo, O., Sepúlveda, R., Melin, P.: Path planning for
autonomous mobile robot navigation with ant colony optimization and fuzzy cost function
evaluation. Appl Soft Comput J 9(3), 1102–1110 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2009.
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Monte Carlo-Based Localization for Kidnapped Robot Problem 109

6. Aguilar, W.G., Morales, S.G.: 3D environment mapping using the Kinect V2 and path planning
based on RRT algorithms. Electronics 5(4), 70 (2016)
7. Ismail, A.-T., Sheta, A., Al-Weshah, M.: A mobile robot path planning using genetic algorithm
in static environment. J. Comput. Sci. 4(4), 341–344 (2008). Retrieved from http://thescipub.
com/abstract/10.3844/jcssp.2008.341.344
8. Ge, S.S., Cui, Y.J.: New potential functions for mobile robot path planning. IEEE Trans. Robot.
Autom. 16(5), 615–620 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1109/70.880813
9. Aguilar, W.G., Cobeña, B., Rodriguez, G., Salcedo, V.S., Collaguazo, B.: SVM and RGB-D
sensor based gesture recognition for UAV control. In: International Conference on Augmented
Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics, pp. 713–719 (2018)
10. Aguilar, W.G., Salcedo, V.S., Sandoval, D.S., Cobeña, B.: Developing of a video-based model
for UAV autonomous navigation. Latin American Workshop on Computational Neuroscience,
pp. 94–105 (2017)
11. Aguilar, W.G., Manosalvas, J.F., Guillén, J.A., Collaguazo, B.: Robust motion estimation based
on multiple monocular camera for indoor autonomous navigation of micro aerial vehicle.
In: International Conference on Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics,
pp. 547–561 (2018)
12. Orbea, D., Moposita, J., Aguilar, W.G., Paredes, M., León, G., Jara-Olmedo, A.: Math model
of UAV multi rotor prototype with fixed wing aerodynamic structure for a flight simulator.
In: International Conference on Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality and Computer Graphics,
pp. 199–211 (2017)
13. Majdik, A., Popa, M., Tamas, L., Szoke, I., & Lazea, G. (2010). New approach in solving the
kidnapped robot problem. In: 41st International Conference on Robotics, pp. 1–6. Retrieved
from http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=5756811
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99CH36288C), vol. 2, pp. 1322–1328 May 1999. http://doi.org/10.1109/ROBOT.1999.772544
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Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice, 401–428 (2001). http://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-
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Neural Process. Lett. 43(2), 459–477 (2016)
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predictions. In: Proceedings of International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 236–244
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abnormal crowd behavior detection and simulation for real-time applications. In: International
Conference on Intelligent Robotics and Applications, pp. 671–682 (2017)
21. Fox, D.: KLD-sampling: adaptive particle filters. Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst. 14(1), 713–720
(2002). https://doi.org/10.1.1.21.5786
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1-4757-3437-9_19
Automatic Counting of People
in Crowded Scenes, with Drones That
Were Applied in Internal Defense
Operations on October 20, 2019
in Ecuador

Henry Cruz, Rolando P. Reyes Ch., and María Pinillos

Abstract Eleven days of public protests, unrest and chaos happened in October 2019
in Ecuador. The national security forces acted immediately implementing internal
defense operations. In this changing and highly uncertain context the automatic
crowd counting based on the Gaussian density estimation combined with the multi-
scale convolutional neural networks is used to generate electronic intelligence. This
solution is set in a real scene obtaining excellent results and reducing the training time
without being the performance affected. In this way, with the information obtained in
real-time about the quantities of forces and dispositive. The national security forces
reaction is immediate guaranteeing the control, the resupply and reorganization of
themselves.

Keywords Security operations · Real scenarios · Crowd counting · CNN ·

Gaussian density

1 Introduction

1.1 Context

On October 3, 2019 the Ecuadorian government applied the 883 decree-law which
established an increase in the fossil fuels cost. This fact triggered a wave of parades,
incidents and public protests carried out by different social actors. Those actions
were exceptionally violent as it had not happened in previous decades [1].

H. Cruz (B) · R. P. Reyes Ch.

Universidad de Fuerzas Armadas-ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Pinillos
Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo, Riobamba, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 111
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_10
112 H. Cruz et al.

In this context, social and political issues were evident and taken into consideration
and it can be thought this situation could stem from a constant ideological fight,
an economic disagreement and even manipulation of people. The official and non-
official media broadcasted the day by day parades which took place along the country
while confusing citizens witnessed it and were affected in one or another way by this
officially declared state of emergency.
Several social and political theories have turned up from these events pointing out
the social discontent or a complex political strategy as the origin of the disruption
of the proper functioning of the main cities and a try to destabilize the govern-
ment legally formed. Independently of the origin of these events the destruction,
confrontation and unrest were unprecedented [2].
On the other hand, the more significant social protests were those which were
organized by some indigenous leaders and came from different areas of the “Interan-
dina” region [3] from both the North and the South towards the capital of Ecuador,
Quito. It is located at 2850 m above the sea level and its population is 2,700,000
inhabitants [4].
The conflict led to antagonisms and confrontations on social networks. It is where
the information provided by official media was questioned by citizens due to the
amount of videos, audios and fake news broadcasted on Internet leading to misleading
information and uncertainty in the country.
This social behavior of ideological suggestion and collective manipulation showed
that the majority of the Ecuadorian society does not analyze or verify information and
the fragility of the social structure that reached the social and political polarization
being a consequence of people’s frustration [5].
All of these variables mentioned above intensified the public protests towards the
Centre of Quito being estimated the number of participants in them about 15,000
people [6]. In this context the national armed forces accomplishing the constitu-
tional and Ecuadorian laws work to guarantee the social peace, rights and freedom
of Ecuadorian citizens. In order to do so tactics, techniques and procedures were used
to have internal control. Among the technological tools applied to obtain information
of the context to be confronted are the drones. They do surveillance and recognition
tasks and if they are combined with computer vision algorithms, drones provide the
obtaining automatic information about the composition, the device, and the effec-
tiveness generating more accurate assessments in internal and external operations
[7, 8].

1.2 People Counting in Crowded Scenes

The artificial vision atomizes the surveillance and monitoring tasks through the devel-
opment of algorithms that let, among other actions, the recognition, the people count-
ing and the detection of anomalous events. Especially, they allow the people counting
Automatic Counting of People in Crowded Scenes … 113

in crowded scenes so they can be monitored making easier for those in charge of the
national security the control of a situation.
People counting in crowded scenes are a technique in demand in continuous
development and improvement. To the best of our knowledge one of the first works
in literature is related to the application of the Gaussian process regression (GPR)
that consists of the segmentation of homogeneous components in a dynamic way
as the background is separated from the foreground. According to the authors, this
method can reach the 91% of accuracy [9].
On other hand, algorithms have been applied to the automatic learning without
supervision to detect and estimate the amount of people in crowded scenes. This
procedure is called density learning and allows the considerable reduction in the
execution time in real time, the higher the interaction number, the lower the execution
time and mistakes [10].
After the people detection and counting algorithms that do the detection through
the geometric filter have been developed or designed and the subsequent people
monitoring taking into account a base line detector. Whole system is based on the
density and supervised training [11]. Then works related to counting people through
semi supervised algorithms, accumulative attribute, extraction of spatial temporal
features, multi-source and multi-scale counting and interactive object [12]. In addi-
tion, adaptive models have been developed to people counting proposes through
convolutional neural networks [13], Bayesian model [14], random forest [15], den-
sity estimation by Gaussian extraction model crowded scene in perspective by deep
learning [15–17].
These works have led to the presentation of proposals based on iterative crowd
counting, scale aggregation network, learning multi-level density maps, pan den-
sity crowd, multipolar normalized density map, adaptive density maps, 3D crowd
counting via Gaussian kernels among others [18, 19].

1.3 Drones and Crowd Counting

Currently drones have become into a very useful tool to surveillance and security
fields. Because of that the technological development in this area focuses on generat-
ing applications that allow the improvement of penetration, flexibility and versatility
abilities that enable drones to carry out surveillance actions. Given the fact that the
growth of this activity is evident it is foreseen the need of a regulation of the same
[20, 21].
Technologies such as the Internet of things, artificial intelligence, artificial vision,
high energetic performance, video stabilization among others improve the abilities,
autonomy, design and accessibility of the drones up to a point that it would let the
massive action of mobile surveillance [22]. The advantages and challenges in relation
to the scope and capacity of these systems lead to doubts about the capacity to secure
114 H. Cruz et al.

and avoid the interference and intrusion in the control and monitoring systems being
another challenge to be overcame by the cyber security [23].
The methods and algorithms developed for the crowd counting look for reaching
higher accuracy and reducing errors. The increase in the processors capacity and in
the graphic accelerators makes the detection more accurate with less execution time.
These features are used by the drones to the acquisition and processing of images
and the video frames via off-line and on-line [24–26].
The optical sensors of the drones produce high resolution images and videos
and the stabilization systems are stronger so the likelihood of error because of bad
information quality is each time smaller [27]. These abilities and advantages help
obtaining more accuracy in the people detection, crowd counting and targets location
and for that algorithms based on Layout Proposal Networks (LPNs) [28] and spatial
kernels have been applied and the scale-aware contextual extraction to the obtaining
of density maps and later training of the obtained features [29]. In relation to the crowd
counting other works combine the Gaussian density estimation classified according to
CNN what improves the detection even though a distortion happens due to perspective
[30]. Also this combination has proved to be efficient even when imagines vary of
scale due to the vertical movements of the drones [31].
Currently there is a tendency towards the use of drones for monitoring and surveil-
lance tasks being the detection algorithms and automatic counting an important reli-
able option to execute these tasks. Because of that this work is to show the experiential
application of the combination of the estimation of the Gaussian density with the
CCN in internal defensive operations. This work has the following sections. Section 2
describes the applied methodology; Sect. 3 shows the results obtained against the
application scenario are discussed and finally, Sect. 5 details the main conclusions
and future work.

2 Methodology

2.1 The Application of the Gaussian Density Estimation

After previous analysis of existing works the application of the density estimation
through the Gaussian model applied to the people counting and improving the count-
ing in perspective is proposed [9, 32, 33]. The beginning proposal is that this model
responses to the existence of a signals distribution but which are in a defined rank
where a function m(x) is directly related to its covariance k(x, x ), so it is determined
that that covariance represents a vector and a matrix at the same time. The model is
proposed as it is shown in (1):

f ∼ GP(m, k), (1)

Automatic Counting of People in Crowded Scenes … 115

2.2 Classification Through the CNN

Signals are quantified and generate numerical matrixes which are used to develop
training processes that will serve to matrixes comparison and later predictive process
will be done. Given the fact that the signals taking under the same perspective facili-
tates the comparison what implies high levels of error because of the movement and
displacement of the drones, the extraction of the training signals features in different
scales lets cover higher number of possibilities being the values matching effective
and subsequently the classification increases the accuracy level. Because of that the
signals training through the multiscale convolutional neutral network (MSCNN) pro-
posed by Zeng et al. [34] is thought to be an interesting option when generating a
training model for the detection and crowd counting in diverse scales. The covariance
model applied for the signal analysis allows having a values group and estimating
the variation grade in relation to the size of the signals.

2.3 Application of the Process

The process starts with the acquisition of video signals which have been treated in
two ways. One of them is through an online system generated by an Ad Hoc net of
the DJI Mavic 2 PRO drone to process the video in real time and another is through
an off-line system processed form the DJI Phantom 4 drone. An Intel Pentium 7 with
graphic accelerator computer was used to process the video and imagines. On other
hand, the acquired signals by the optical sensors are assessed through the method
based on MSCNN and following the process described in the item 2.2., obtaining a
final map of Gaussian density. The probability of the Gaussian density is defined as
the group of pixels accumulated with a certain value inside of a specific region as it
is described in (2):
 
1 
N
(x − xi )2 + (y − yi )2
p(x, y) = exp − (2)
C i=1 2ϑ

where p represents a normalised value of p from (0, 1). Figure 1 shows the process
taken.
The total of the video frames and the images with standard resolution of 4096 ×
2160 to 60 fps and taken with a bit rate of 100 Mbps samples was of about 4000.
This data bank of images was collected along the eleven days of the public protests
happened in Quito in October 2019. This data bank cannot be published because of
the confidentiality of the information and its repository is located at Centro de Inves-
tigación de Aplicaciones Militares (CIAM). The environmental and the application
conditions varied; due to the black smoke produced by the tires burning the visi-
bility was reduced so the drones took images from different range of heights from
116 H. Cruz et al.

Fig. 1 Counting crowd process through Gaussian density and MSCNN

20–300 m and in perspective with angles of 30 and 45 in relation to the horizon.

Figure 2 shows a processed images set and the obtained results.

2.4 Response Time Optimization

The defensive operations are characterized by the uncertainty and given the fact
that the conditions in an urban conflict scene are changing, the response time is to
be immediate. The technological solutions to support the operations in these kind of
sceneries should be flexible and appropriate. The training process was optimized and
taking into consideration to reach 97% of effectiveness, the training should be done
in 10 periods [34]. However, take this process with conventional computers means
days of processing so the training chosen counted with 30% of what is recommended,
three periods. In order to reduce the error each frame was assessed in three occasions,
after that the threshold was determined considering the variance of the values in the
Eq. (3)
N  2
1 x−X
Var = (3)
n
Automatic Counting of People in Crowded Scenes … 117

a) Process in Ave. 12 de Octubre b) Process in Ave. Tarqui

c) Procesamiento en el Arbolito Park

Fig. 2 Process in different places in the Quito Centre: a Av. 12 de Octubre, b Av. Tarqui, c Arbolito
Park

where x, represents a register value counting from the image 1 to the image 3. This
process reduced the error due to the dispersion control and improved the response
time because of the reduction in the training time for the subsequent use of the
algorithm.

3 Results Assessment

The comparative technique of the value counting automatic system against a Ground
Truth that is based on a probabilistic counting estimating the number of people in
certain amount of pixels have been applied. As every image were taken and executed
by the drones in real time, the results have been stored and assessed in a laboratory
in real time leading to set a reliable reference pattern in relation to the operations
executed. In this way, to set or calculate the performance the mean absolute error
118 H. Cruz et al.

Table 1 Comparative table

Level MAE RMSE
of results in crowd density
estimation is different levels 50 23.1 34.6
150 24.2 37.1
300 25.0 39.2

(MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE), that are metrics traditionally used
to assess accuracy of crowd counting data, have been used. The assessments have
taken place in three levels, L1 = 50, L2 = 150, and L3 = 300 m, the number N =
400 samples have been taken from the CIAM data base as it is shown in Table 1.
As it can be observed in Table 1 the values variations of the metric values have
a propositional relation with the height level to which the frames or images were
taken. It can be said that as higher is the height level, higher is the increase in the
error. This variation is not taken into account due to the excellent resolution of the
images obtained from the drones.

4 Discussion

The multiscale model reaches high accuracy and versatility levels. However, in the
training and recognition process the great amount of values produced by the covari-
ance model demands high computational load leading to longer training time. In
the context of national internal defense, the scenes are changing, and the responses
should be flexible, reliable and immediate and the algorithm based on MSCNN suit
to those requirements. The strategy based on the reduction in the number of training
periods let gain opportuneness along the operations and the compensation mecha-
nism to reduce error through the application of the assessment of the counting results
variance led to the dispersion reduction.
The crowd counting results were accurate as Table 1 shows and let have processed
information which is considered electronic intelligence because generated informa-
tion in relation to the forces and the equipment of the forces. Also given the geo
positioning function of the drones the obtained data was geo-referenced.
Automatic Counting of People in Crowded Scenes … 119

5 Conclusions and Further Work

The public protests in October 2019 in Quito led to an uncertain and chaos environ-
ment where the national security forces had to act accomplishing the constitutional
law. The need to provide immediate response to guarantee the control let the imple-
mentation of the solutions to this level through the crowd counting algorithm based
on the map of Gaussian density and the classification based on MSCNN.
To reach a better response in implementation time with high accuracy levels, the
training periods are reduced and the variance covers a certain number of obtained
results so the values dispersion is reduced and adapt to a threshold. The imple-
mentation was applied in a real scene of conflict and the results were effective
leading to automatized information that later on became into electronic intelligence
information.
Authorities are to carry on with the developed work done so as to improve the
online broadcasting performance from different perspective and to apply resources
of clusters servers to reduce the training data time.

Acknowledgements This work was supported by Centro de Investigación de Aplicaciones

Militares (CIAM) through management internal projects.
Henry Cruz give thanks the support of the officers Darwin Merizalde and Marco Calderón.

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Expert Nutritional System for Military
Athletes Based on Fuzzy Logic
and Inferential Statistics

Diana Vallejos, Freddy Tapia , Hernán Aules, Michelle Torres,

and Cristian Bejarano

Abstract Athletic performance seeks to enhance the physical and mental state of the
athlete, and it is implicit to systematize sports training; for this reason, managing the
monitoring of the physical state of athletes implies relating variables such as initial
physical performance, hydration, types of nutrition, and training to take successful
strategic actions. Among the innumerable factors that promote success in sport,
training, motivation and, above all, resistance to bodily injury is limited since the
time to test the athlete in respect to his talent and training the margin of risk between
victory and defeat is minimal, nutrition is a fundamental element in the physical
preparation of a specific athlete of those who are very disciplined because the diet
benefits or affects sports performance and therefore the desired result. It must be
taken into account that each athlete must be aware of the nutritional objectives to be
achieved and how they can improve a feeding strategy to comply with the expert’s
guidance and in this way shape their long, medium and short term goals. This study
was a focus on planning and training of military athletes and proposes the structure of
an expert nutritional system to reach better standards. The system is available through
the use of web services focused on new technologies based on inferential statistical
systems and fuzzy logic applying a statistic analysis aimed at decision making. The
web services are aimed at improving the monitoring of the physical condition of the

D. Vallejos · F. Tapia (B) · M. Torres · C. Bejarano

Department of Computer Science, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas-ESPE, Sangolquí,
Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Vallejos
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Torres
e-mail: [email protected]
C. Bejarano
e-mail: [email protected]
H. Aules
Department of Mathematics, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 123
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_11
124 D. Vallejos et al.

athletes to provide nutritional support for the maintenance of a healthy lifestyle with
good physical performance, that is to say, it simplifies the information contained in
the original variables, looking for the interrelations between the numerical variables
defined simultaneously in a set of elements. The results achieved show an improved
performance in the physical evaluation of athletes.

Keywords Athletes performance · Inferential statistics · Fuzzy logic · Inference

engine · Fuzzification

1 Introduction

In Ecuador, for several years, the relationship between those who reach the category
of high-performance athletes compared to a number of athletes who remain in the
practice of a certain sport is low; despite the efforts of local and national coaches
and managers [1]. Therefore, it is imperative to look for alternatives that improve
this relationship; that is why, the present study addresses one of the fundamental
relationships to achieve this desired improvement, the training–feeding relationship
[2].
The purpose of assessing the physical condition of an athlete is to tend to con-
tinuous improvement, for which it is important to determine causes of improvement
or stagnation in performance, since this information is essential to make decisions
related to budgets, training programs, feeding programs, technological equipment,
among others [3].
The World Health Organization recommends boosting levels of physical activity,
within the Global Strategy of Physical Activity and Nutrition [2], based on today´s
needs society to counter-act the rates of low activity or physical exercise. Physical
activity levels can be classified and/or measured in athletes using different assessment
methodologies, this classification can be manifested on ordinal scales (inactive, mod-
erate or active), dichotomous (active or inactive) or continuous (according to METS
and kilocalories) [4].
Actually is a growing interest in the study of the relationship between health and
physical activity, in which a key role has been determined the relationship between
the increase in cardiovascular diseases with sedentary lifestyles [5]; With this back-
ground, it is sought to link the technological aspect with the sports aspect, for which
the automation of traditional processes and the optimization of the analysis times and
possible actions in real-time are intended. What will allow athletes to be constantly
evaluated and monitored?
Expert Nutritional System for Military Athletes Based … 125

2 Related Work

Some studies highlight that sports performance is perfectly related to the techno-
logical aspect, such that a key element is a diffuse logic, which allows to represent
mathematically uncertainty and vagueness.
So it is that with the analysis of variables and contribution of the specialist, the
levels of flexibility and muscular power are better achieved, based on better nutrition
and performance. Here is the convenience of using a system that learns from the
experiences and data generated and projected.

3 Methodology, Experimental Configuration, and Tools

(Current References)

Expert systems are considered the first truly operational product of artificial intel-
ligence. They are computer programs designed to act as a human specialist in a
particular domain or area of knowledge. In this sense, it’s a system that uses stored
knowledge and some methods of inference in order to solve problems normally
required by human experts, who transmits his knowledge to the system, and the
user who uses it to solve a problem with the effectiveness of the specialist [1]. The
expert system uses the knowledge stored and some methods of inference [3]. The
fundamental feature of an expert system is that it separates the stored knowledge
(knowledge base) from the program that controls it (motor of inference). Other fact
important is the data of a given problem is stored in a separate database (fact-based).
The characteristics of fuzzy logic are perfectly coupled for the elaboration of
a nutritional system because as already mentioned above to give an effective and
reliable diagnosis, closed values are not taken; otherwise, other decision criteria
specific to this tool are chosen [4, 5]. Another important aspect of this system is that
virtually all quantitative data collected throughout the entire process are values that
are described in traditional terms, such as low, medium and high average pressure.
The nutritional system uses fuzzy logic [6] developed in x-fuzzy in which input
and output variables, logical operators, defuzzification with the center of the area
method and Fuzzy Mean [7], and rule base were established; the system has two
motors of analyzing each person’s data to give them a category and give nutrition
recommendations on a case-by-case basis (Figs. 1 and 2).
Another important aspect of the nutritional expert system is that it is built with
PHP so that it can be used through the web, it uses an MYSQL database to save
each person’s records according to a control date. With this data using a model that
uses functions performed in JavaScript, the system displays statistical graphs and the
progress of each person. In other words, technology is used optimally and efficiently.
126 D. Vallejos et al.

Fig. 1 Inference engine to make the category of the data of each athlete, based on the suggestions
of the expert nutritionist

Fig. 2 Deployment of the diffuse system, where the input variables, data processing and output
variables are detailed, resulting in the different inference engines, for the sample of results

4 Getting Data

The first step in providing nutritional control is to collect personal information about
each athlete, followed by an interpretation and analysis of that information to identify
problems that affect the athlete’s nutritional. Among the data to be obtained are
Expert Nutritional System for Military Athletes Based … 127

Fig. 3 Fragment of the list of athletes with the display of the data of the variables taken to perform
the inferential analysis, the same ones that will serve to experience the changes in the diagnosis of
their physical performance

sex, age, weight, height, glucose, triglycerides, diastolic pressure, systolic pressure,
temperature, and speed.
To carry out this study, 80 cadets from Eloy Alfaro High School are considered,
of which half are considered high-performance athletes and the other half are not
(Fig. 3).

5 Data Analysis

The main components method provides a series of multivariate procedures and mod-
els that reduce the size allowing better handling and interpretation of the available
data by finding new variables (main components).
For the corresponding analysis, we have p numeric variables x1 , x2 , x3 , . . . , x p
defined simultaneously in a set of elements, and it is a question of constructing, from
these variables, linear combinations y1 , y2 , y3 , …, y p uncorrelated in each other,
so that the former express the largest proportion of the information contained in
the values of the original variables. These linear combinations are known as major
components; where the first major component y1 is expressed as follows:

y1 = u 11 x1 + u 12 x2 + · · · + u 1 p x p (1)

With the necessary condition that it captures the greatest variability of the data.
The second main component y2 , must be not correlated with the first and must
capture the greatest variability that has not been expressed by the first. The third
main component must be not correlated with the previous ones, this as the first two
must capture the greatest variability that has not been expressed by the first two, and
so on.

5.1 Choosing the Number of Main Components

The amount of information of the original p variables is completely reproduced by the

corresponding main components. In practice, the criterion of considering a number
128 D. Vallejos et al.

of major components that retains between 70 and 95% of the total variation in the
correlation between variables is used, or the Kaiser rule could be used, in which each
major component should express an amount of information greater than what each
variable explains.

5.2 Analysis for the Proposed Research

The concepts and properties presented refer to the entire population where the vari-
ables are defined; however, they may be limited to a representative sample of it. In
this way, they can be applied to the S matrix of sample covariance or to the matrix
of sample correlations. If the results of the sample are to be extended to the entire
population, it should be based on samples that are not small (recommended 15 cases
for each original variable) the same as those to be representative of the population.
Based on the data presented in the investigation and based on the following
information (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4 Original variable data

Fig. 5 Correlated data

Expert Nutritional System for Military Athletes Based … 129

Fig. 6 Big plot predictive data of the main components

Based on the data presented in the research and from the information in Figs. 5
and 6, after the respective analysis is to be, the equations of the linear combinations
of the 14 variables that lead to the generation of the main elements are the following:

y1 = −0.19065050z 1 − 0.02521255z 2 + 0.55678264z 3 − 0.27269462z 4 + · · · + 0.4375967926z 14

(2)
y2 = −0.26341149z 1 + 0.44529228z 2 − 0.02443611z 3 + 0.10511275z 4 + · · · − 0.0094515325z 14
(3)

...
y14 = −0.51543598z 1 − 0.13374224z 2 + 0.13329924z 3 + 0.13612686 + · · · − 0.6924780724z 14
(4)

On the other hand, the variables of the entire population in the proposed research
are clearly observed to be well correlated and may be limited to a representative
sample of it by applying a sample correlation matrix, starting from a sample of 14
variables with the observation of 20 data per variable constituting a representative
sample in the research (Fig. 7).
On the other hand, the trace or sum of the diagonal elements of the correlation
matrix is 14.00 and equal to the sum of the variances of the original standardized
130 D. Vallejos et al.

Fig. 7 Auto valor and principals components

variables. The sum of the first self-values (3.08487047 + 1.86029536 − 4.945166)

corresponds to 35.32261% of the total sum, such as the main components, at least
should retain between 70 and 95% of the total correlation variation between variables,
then by the time by which by sequential analogy, we will perform it at least up to
the sixth self-value that corresponds to 75.45862% of the total variation, indicating
that the variables are well correlated, however, it can be considered at most up to the
tenth self-value that 94.14443% and on this, up to the fourteenth self-value would
correspond to 5.8556% (100 − 94.14443 − 5. 8556), the same that could be omitted
from the main components, because they were close to the 95% confidence limit in
the field of research, with a statistically standardized 5% margin of error (Fig. 8).
Analytically it can be said that all the variables initially proposed in the research
are highly correlated with the variables x1 , x2 , x3 , …, x14 generated by the corre-
sponding frequencies of the respective variances (s). In other words, the variables to
be considered would be: x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 , x6 , x7 , x8 , x9 , x10 de las x1 , x2 , x3 , …,

Fig. 8 Increasing variance of the main components

Expert Nutritional System for Military Athletes Based … 131

Fig. 9 BMI analysis chart

x14 ; however, if analyzed more closely, all variables are closely correlated, mean-
ing that variables are important and essential throughout research reaching 100% of
observations.

6 Results

The system uses the named Takagi-Sugeno approach, which is a method of fuzzy
logic that allows to work with the data collected previously. In this method an expert
has to specify his knowledge in the form of linguistic rules [1, 8].
The nutritional expert system allows us to carry out the categorization of each
person by means of the rules established in the fuzzy logic and according to the
registered data, also allows to recommend a diet suitable to each person for their
correct nutrition with the to help improve your physical performance.
Another important aspect of the system is that by means of graphs it allows us
to visualize the progress corresponding to each person, so that the expert or the
professional in charge can make decisions.
The desired results allowed to determine the causes and consequences of good
nutrition, which will be a very important contribution to the athletic rise of military
personnel. [8] (Figs. 9 and 10).

7 Conclusions and Future Works

Considering the parameters that motivated this research, it makes it clear that the
present relates topics immersed in the profile of the professional in Physical Culture,
Sport and Recreation, such as investigative skills, as well as highlighting the athletes’
responsibility to contribute to health approaching prevention and promotion of the
correct nutrition. In the permanent construction of wellness alternatives to generate
132 D. Vallejos et al.

Fig. 10 Graph of the components of medical examinations

quality of life. Given that health is a priority today, which is why elite athletes and
health organizations promote lifestyle habits that encourage physical activity.
The expert system developed is a tool for sports initiation, but to complement it
is important recommended that will research the proper exercise routine suitable for
each person, which can help improve performance in the sport where it was chosen.
By way of conclusion, analytically it can be said that; all the variables
initially proposed in the investigation are highly correlated with the variables
x1 , x2 , x3 , .., x14 generated by the corresponding frequencies of the respective
variances, summarizing; the variables to be considered would be the following:
x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 , x6 , x7 , x8 , x9 , x10 de las x1 , x2 , x3 , . . . , x14 , however, if analyzed
more closely, all the variables are closely correlated, this means that the variables are
important and essential in all the research reaching 100% of the observations, this
can also be observed in (Fig. 8) the same that has a behavior of increasing functional
monotony among the variables involved in the investigation.

References

1. González Rico, R., Ramírez Lecguga, J.: Review of Physical Fitness Assessment Tests in
Secondary Education. Spain (2017)
2. Cajamarca Cadme, E.L., Cajamarca Cuji, H.A.: Lipid Profile in Athletes Belonging to the
Azuay Sports Federation, Cuenca 2017. Cuenca (2017)
3. Hernandez, E.F.: Relationship Between Physical Exercise and Body Temperature in Physically
Active and Inactive Adults. Bogota (2014)
4. Ochoa Granda, E.G.: Assessment of Initial Physical Performance and Strategic Actions to
Reduce Sports Dropout in Women’s Athletics of the Sports Federation of Loja. Sangolquí
(2018)
5. Cordente Martínez, C.A., García Soidán, P., Sillero Quintana, M., Domínguez Rome-ro, J.:
Relationship of the level of physical activity, blood pressure and body fat in Madrid adolescents
(2007)
6. Quisbert Quispe, U.: Expert System Based on Fuzzy Logic for the Child-Bearing Initiation of
Children in the Growth Stage. La Paz (2015)
7. Riza c. Berkan sheldon L.trubatch.: Fuzzy System Design Principles. IEEE Press (1997)
8. Hudson, d.l., Cohen, m.e.: Neural Networks and Artificial Intelligence for Biomedical
Engineering. IEEE Press series on Biomedical Engineering 1999 Wiley-IEEE Press (1999)
Expert Nutritional System for Military Athletes Based … 133

9. Véliz, C.: Multivariate Analysis, Multivariate Statistical Methods for Research. Editorial
Cengage Learning, Mexico (2016)
10. Cuadras, C.: New Methods of Multivariate Analysis. CMC Editions Editorial, Barcelona (2019)
11. Montanero, J.: Multivariate Analysis. Editorial University of Extremadura, Spain (2008)
12. Baillo, A., Grané A.: 100 Solved Problems of Multivariate Statistics, implemented in Matlab.
Delta Publishing Publications, Madrid (2008)
13. ALP, A.: Effects of aerobic exercise on bone-specific alkaline phosphatase and urinary CTX
levels in Premenopausal Women. BMC Musculoskelet Disorders, pp. 30–31 (2013)
14. Maimoun, L., Manetta, J., Couret, I., Dupuy, A.M., Mariano-Goulart, D., Micallef, J.P., Rossi,
M.: The Intensity Level of Physical Exercise and the Bone Metabolism Response, vol 27. US
National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health (2011)
15. Taha, L.G.E.-D.: The Role of Expert System in Remote Sensing Applications, vol 18. Nova
Science Publishers, Inc., p. 3/4 (2010)
16. Lake, B.M., Ullman, T.D., Tenenbaum, J.B., Gershman, S.J.: Building Machines That Learn
and Think Like People. Cornell University (2016)
17. Bushra Alhijawi, Y.K.: Int. J. Adv. Intell. Paradigms. Inderscience Publisher (2018)
18. Mamlook, R.M.: A New Method for Defuzzification and Ranking of Fuzzy Numbers Based
on the Statistical Beta Distribution, vol. 2016 Hindawi (2016)
19. Gil-Sierra, D.G., Salcedo-Parra, O.J., Angulo, K.: Optimization using diffuse logic of analysis
device for chemical components of natural ingredients based on the internet of things IoT. Sci.
Mag. 1(37) (2020)
20. Bermudez, N.S.C., Tovar, S.M.C.: Analysis of the Physical Condition of the Military Cadets
Academy General José María Córdova¨. Dialnet, pp. 131–139 (2015)
Earth Coverage Model for GPS-Like
Capabilities

Vaughn H. Standley, Edward A. Boucheron, Robert K. Kirkwood,

and Benjamin E. Norman

Abstract In terms of the number of satellites in view from a near ground level device
or event where Maximum Look Angle represents the performance of transmitters,
the global coverage provided by the GPS constellation is demonstrated to be well
approximated by assuming that the satellites are randomly distributed around the
earth. Analysis using GPS almanac data indicates that a random approximation is a
good approximation to within about 10% accuracy. An analytic model relying on this
approximation was used to assist in the validation of a sophisticated ephemeris-based
performance model. The model also enables fast parametric estimation of aggregate
cost, performance, and risk of GPS-like capabilities, including those fielded on small
satellites in low earth orbit.

Keywords Global positioning system · Risk analysis · Software validation

1 Introduction

For more than 50 years, the National Nuclear Security Administration and its pre-
decessors have sponsored work at the National Nuclear Laboratories to develop and

V. H. Standley (B)
National Defense University, Washington, DC 20319, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
E. A. Boucheron
The Aerospace Corporation, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
R. K. Kirkwood
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, Livermore, CA 94551, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
B. E. Norman
Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 135
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_12
136 V. H. Standley et al.

fabricate instruments to detect nuclear detonations from space. Synergies with space-
based navigation led to these instruments being hosted on GPS satellites beginning
in the 1980s since both navigation and detonation detection missions require global
coverage and the use of highly accurate clocks to determine location. While cov-
erage provided by these systems is normally assessed using sophisticated orbital
ephemeris-based models [1], it is possible to provide reasonable estimates with a
compact analytic model. Estimates from this method can be used to help inform
acquisition decisions and as a validation check of performance estimates provided
by more complicated models. The method shown here calculates the probability that
a specific number of satellite-based instruments will receive signals emitted from the
earth’s surface or, conversely, that radio receivers on the ground will receive signals
from a specific number of satellites. This method, not previously used, is based on
modeling satellites’ sensing behavior with a single parameter, instrument Maximum
Look Angle, and can be used to generate aggregate system performance of a complex
satellite constellation.

2 Maximum Look Angle

The sensitivity of satellite-based instruments to events on the surface of the earth

can be represented very simply in terms of a maximum “Look Angle” that does
not depend on details of local terrain and uses the approximation of a spherically
symmetric earth and atmosphere. Maximum Look Angle (MLA) is the greatest angle
off zenith to where satellite-based instruments are still sufficiently sensitive to detect
a surface event of specified characteristic signals, such as a nuclear explosion. Look
Angles are used because they consider the attenuation of propagating signals through
the atmosphere. This attenuation is least when observing directly down to the earth,
and greater when looking obliquely toward the earth’s horizon. Figure 1 illustrates the

Fig. 1 Relationship between GPS satellite

Maximum Look Angle
(MLA), Elevation Angle (θ),
Satellite Cone Angle (α),
and Earth Central Angle (β)
s
MLA rsat

Event or Device Atmosphere

Event Horizon

re

Earth Surface
Earth Coverage Model for GPS-Like Capabilities 137

relationship between the event, observing instrument, earth, and subtended angles.
Maximum look angles are computed by the sensor developers based on analysis and
testing. For example, the implied Maximum Look Angle associated with a hand-held
GPS receiver is almost 90°, meaning that an earth-based observer can receive signals
from all satellites above the earth horizon.
For purposes of a simple mathematically abstracted representation, the relation-
ship between Maximum Look Angle and the number of average satellites in view is
treated as having a strictly geometric relationship, calculated by first determining the
fraction of the earth over which any one instrument can detect an event (or signals
from the satellite can be received). The fraction of the earth area viewed by a satellite
deployed instrument, based on the surface area of a unit dome is:

(1 − cosβ)
Fraction of Earth Area in View = (1)
2
The Law of Sines is used to derive β, which is given by:
 
re
β = cos−1 cosθ − θ (2)
rs

3 Probabilistic Coverage

For GPS-based capabilities, the ratio of earth and satellite orbital radii, r e /r s is equal to
6378 km/(20,200 km + 6378 km) = 0.24. For N total satellites in a constellation, each
with a detonation detection instrument or navigation transmitter onboard, assumed
to be randomly and uniformly distributed around the sphere of the earth, the average
number of satellites in view can be derived as the fraction of the earth area covered
by each sensor, multiplied by N:

1 − cosβ
Average Satellites in View = N (3)
2
After inserting β into the above equation and replacing θ with 90-MLA, one
obtains a direct relationship between average number of satellites in view over the
whole earth and Maximum Look Angle:
    
N −1 r e
Average Satellites in View = 1 − sin cos (MLA) + MLA (4)
2 rs

Our analysis uses the result of Eq. (4) rounded to the nearest integer as an estimate
of the actual number of satellites in view so that the rest of the calculations can be
done using a hypergeometric distribution. We will subsequently show by comparisons
138 V. H. Standley et al.

with more precise calculations (discussed below) that this assumption is reasonably
accurate for the parameters of the GPS constellation. A simple random model can
be based solely on mixing the average number of satellites in view from Eq. (4)
with those not in view. Confining ourselves first to the half-earth case, we use the
hypergeometric distribution with population size N = 12, sample size n = 12, the
number of successes in the sample = k, and number of successes in the population
= K = Eq. (4). For a specific example where MLA = 90°, K = 9. The mean of
the hypergeometric distribution is n * K/N, which is for this case 12 × 9/12 = 9.
While not particularly useful, the half-earth case is instructive because it shows that
the hypergeometric distribution returns a probability of one for k = K and zero
otherwise. That is, the number of satellites in view as calculated by Eq. (4) is always
true. A whole earth, 24-satellite GPS constellation can be thought of as twice a
half-earth constellation with N = 2 * 12 = 24 and number of successes twice the
number for the half-earth case. However, we keep the sample size n equal to 12 and
thus the hypergeometric will return results other than simply zero or one. We use
12 because it corresponds to the maximum number of satellites that can ever be in
view. Conversely, it can be thought of as how many GPS-based detonation detection
instruments are in view of an event on the ground if the instruments had the same
look angle for the event.
Consider the example of a GPS hand-held receiver that has the equivalent of a
satellite sensor Maximum Look Angle of 85°. The integer number of satellites in
view for half-earth according to Eq. (4) is equal to 8. For the whole earth, there is
an average of 2 * 8 = 16 in view. For reasons explained, we keep the sample size n
equal to 12. The probability that exactly eight satellites will be in view using integer
values derived from Eq. (4) is:
     
K N−K 16 24 − 16
k n−k 8 12 − 8 12, 870 × 70
P(X = 8) =   =   = = 0.33
N 24 2, 704, 156
n 12
(5)
 
a
where N = 24, K = 16, n = 12, k = 8 and is the binomial coefficient for
b
integers a and b. The result above makes sense because the ratio of the average
satellites in view to the total number of satellites, 8/24, is numerically the same.
Cumulative probability is more useful because, for example, hand-held receivers need
information from at least four satellites to compute a three-dimensional coordinate.
The cumulative probability associated with a minimum number of satellites in view
is given by:
Earth Coverage Model for GPS-Like Capabilities 139
  
K N−K

k−1
k n−k
P(X ≥ k) = 1 −   (6)
0 N
n

Using this model, the probability that at least four satellites are in view of a GPS
hand-held receiver for the example above is:
⎛        ⎞
16 24 − 16 16 24 − 16 16 24 − 16 16 24 − 16
⎜ ⎟
⎜ 0 12 − 0 1 12 − 1 2 12 − 2 3 12 − 3 ⎟
P(X ≥ 4) = 1 − ⎜
⎜  +  +  +  ⎟
⎟
⎝ 24 24 24 24 ⎠
12 12 12 12
= 1 − (0 + 0 + 0 + 0) = 1 (7)

The average log per capita energy consumption for win, lose, initiator, and non-
initiator categories are summarized in Table 1. The weighted average of the log
per capita energy for the win cases is −0.42. The weighted average of the log per
capita energy for the lose cases is −0.82. On average, those victorious in wars were
consuming about 0.4 more in log per capita energy or about 2.5 times more than
nations losing wars. Energy consumption is thus an important factor in winning wars
whether for attack or defense.
This result illustrates the limitation of using a discrete random model. Under some
circumstances, the results will either be exactly one or zero, which might leave some
doubt about how different the true value will be. However, this concern can easily
be addressed by calculating the result for slightly different coverage circumstances.
For example, the probability that at least five satellites are in view is given by:
 
1820 × 1
P(X ≥ 5) = 1 − 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + = 0.999 (8)
2, 704, 156

Table 1 Ground station latitudes represented latitudes and Earth surface fractions, and cumulative
Earth surface fraction
Ground station Latitude range Fraction of earth Cumulative fraction
latitude (°) represented (°) surface represented from 0 to 90° latitude
90 80–90 0.02 1.00
70 65–80 0.08 0.98
60 50–65 0.14 0.90
40 36.5–50 0.17 0.76
30 27.75–36.5 0.13 0.59
22.5 15–27.75 0.21 0.46
7.5 3.75–15 0.19 0.25
0.0 (Equator) 0–3.37 0.06 0.06
140 V. H. Standley et al.

That is, there is a 99.9% chance of finding one more than the minimum number
of GPS satellites needed to compute a location from anywhere on the earth. Thus,
the true value for at least four satellites in view is somewhere between 0.999 and 1,
which should be satisfactory knowledge under most circumstances.

4 Validation

A method of modeling the number of GPS satellites with sensors in view of an event
was also performed by a Monte Carlo sampling of GPS orbital almanac data [2]. This
method directly calculates the average number of satellites in view and was used to
independently validate the simple hypergeometric analytical model developed. To
this end, a dynamic model of the GPS constellation orbits has been represented by
randomly sampling an almanac of satellite elevations over time using ephemeris data
for a given GPS constellation. GPS satellites exhibit an orbital period of one-half a
sidereal day, i.e., 11 h and 58 min. The orbits are arranged so that at least six satellites
are always within line of sight from almost everywhere on earth’s surface. Orbiting at
an altitude of approximately 20,200 km; orbital radius of approximately 26,600 km,
each SV (space vehicle) makes two complete orbits each sidereal day, repeating the
same ground track each day. Trimble Planning software, version 2.90, was used to
generate lookup tables for the elevation angles of satellites in a constellation of 24
GPS satellites every minute over a 72-h period for a set of assigned “ground station”
latitudes. Since the GPS satellite ground tracks repeat each day, use of a three-day
lookup table as a repeating pattern over time is deemed a reasonable approximation
of true constellation behavior. Further, it is assumed that the southern hemisphere
observations of satellite elevations will be a mirror image of those in the northern
hemisphere. The latitudes chosen were 0.0, 7.5, 22.5, 30, 40, 60, 70 and 90°, all at
77° longitude. Associated with each value of latitude is a section of the hemisphere
of the earth’s surface, each of which covers a fraction of the earth’s surface area,
respectively, as shown in Table 1.
An almanac of satellite elevations, output at one-minute intervals over a 72-h
period, as seen from each of these latitudes is then inputted as a separate ‘sheet’ in
one Excel spreadsheet book. A random number generator is used to select one of the
4321-time slots that an event is assigned to take place. The table entries contain all
the visible satellite elevations above the horizon at that location. It is then a simple
matter to subtract these elevations from 90° to convert to equivalent satellite look
angle represented at that location. Next, the spreadsheet randomly assigns a satellite
number, 1–24 to the table entries. The converted look angles associated with satellites
are then compared to the assumed sensor Maximum Look Angle to determine whether
the satellite sensor “sees the event” or not. Of course, the converse is represented
as well—whether a ground-based sensor successfully receives a signal from the
satellite. If the event is seen or the signal is received on the ground, the detection
probability, here assumed to be one, is then multiplied by the input satellite/sensor
reliability, say 0.98. Thus, each satellite deemed to have seen an event or had its
Earth Coverage Model for GPS-Like Capabilities 141

timing signal successfully received has an individual detection probability of 0.98.

Next, the cumulative probabilities are calculated for the cases of one, two and so on,
up to 14 satellites detecting an event. The cumulative probability is defined as

Cumulative Probability of Detection = Pdn + Pdn+1 − Pdn × Pdn+1 (9)

(where Pdn is the initial Probability of Detection and Pdn+1 is the additional Prob-
ability of Detection from the next satellite) and is calculated recursively to include
all satellites detecting an event in the final value of Probability of Detection.

5 Results

The relationship between sensor Maximum Look Angle and average number of
satellites in view can be calculated for each assumed sensor Maximum Look Angle
using a pure geometric calculation and the Monte Carlo sampled almanac results for
the GPS constellation. The results are shown in Fig. 2. The assumption of a uniform
distribution of satellites around the earth as a representation of the GPS constellation
is, in general, a good one, but is better for higher values of sensor maximum look
angles. Note, for instance, that the average number of satellites in view suffers at the
lower maximum sensor look angles starting at 45° and below. The global average
values are good representations for all maximum look angles, but the higher latitudes

10
Average Number of Satllites in View

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Sensor Look Angle

Fig. 2 Satellites in view versus Maximum Look Angle for a 24-satellite constellation
142 V. H. Standley et al.

begin to show degradation in performance for almanac-based satellites in view as

compared to the pure geometric model. This is caused by the fact that at the North
Pole, the actual GPS constellation never rises above about a 45° elevation angle—in
other words, the assumption of uniform satellite distribution in the simple geometric
model breaks down over the poles for lower values of sensor maximum look angles.
The approximation of uniform coverage is reasonable when larger sensor maximum
look angles are used because there is then significant overlap between actual satellite
orbits overlooking the earth’s surface. From this analysis, it is believed that only for
a case of considering a specific place on earth, or for very small sensor maximum
look angles, would one need to consider applying a correction factor for latitude.
Comparing the probability density functions (PDFs) and cumulative distribution
functions (CDFs) in terms of satellites in view provides a clear demonstration that
coverage provided by GPS-based capabilities is approximately random. Figure 3
compares the PDFs between the random model and almanac data for an instrument
having a look angle between ten and 90° and demonstrates that the two methods
show good agreement.
DIORAMA (Distributed Infrastructure Offering Real-time Access to Modeling
and Analysis) is a software resource developed by Los Alamos and Sandia National
Laboratories for the NNSA that enables, in part, estimation of the performance
of space-based sensors, including those hosted on GPS satellites. It uses detailed
ephemeris associated with the GPS constellation and incorporates a simple Maxi-
mum Look Angle model for events near the surface of the earth. Between 50 and 90°,
results are all within about 10% of each other. Thus, the simple random distribution
approximation using a sample size equal to half the total constellation size should
be enough for estimating coverage associated with GPS-based navigation satellites.
See Fig. 4.

Fig. 3 Probability density curves from the hypergeometric distribution, Almanac data, and the
DIORAMA
Earth Coverage Model for GPS-Like Capabilities 143

RMS Difference 0.25 RMS HG-Almanac

RMS HG-DIORAMA
0.15 RMS DIORAMA-Almanac
0.05

-0.05
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Look Angle (Degrees)

Fig. 4 Root-mean square (RMS) differences between Hypergeometric (HG), Almanac, and
DIORAMA

6 Risk Analysis Application

As the number of satellites in the constellation increases, the law of large numbers
means that the random approximation is more accurate. A low earth orbit (LEO) nav-
igation capability using GPS-like technology would require many more satellites.
Just like GPS satellites, LEO navigation satellites would transmit precise timing to
near-surface equipment running a Kalman filter [3] where a minimum of four signals
is needed to compute location. Figure 5 shows the probability of receiving less than
four signals from satellite’s overhead as a function of Maximum Look Angle, which
represents the risk of a ground receiver failing to calculate a position solution. An
LEO-based navigation capability would enjoy the benefit of lower power require-
ments due to shorter receiver-satellite distances, better coverage amidst building or
mountains because of more oblique satellites, and greater resilience to anti-satellite
threats [4] for sheer numbers. Finally, because costs are dominated by the number of
fielded spacecraft, the method may also be used to estimate the cost and cost risk [5].
The method is not limited to the case of space-based navigation where four or more
satellites must be in view. The model can be applied, for example, to any capability

Fig. 5 Application of the 1

hypergeometric method to a
low earth orbit small-sat
Log10 P(Satellites <4)

navigation capability where

r e /r s = 0.90 (approximately
an Iridium orbit)
0.1

180 Sat's
0.01
200 Sat's
160 Sat's
0.001
80 85 90
Maximum Look Angle in Degrees
144 V. H. Standley et al.

where one or more satellites must be in view, such as hypothetical space-based mis-
sile defense, using either kinetic or directed energy, requiring two or more systems
to be in view of all the surface of the earth [6].

7 Conclusion

Satellite coverage can be approximated by assuming a uniformly random distribution

for both navigation use and nuclear detonation detection capable sensors hosted by
GPS-like constellations. The method is validated against GPS almanac data. Depend-
ing on the capability of the instrument, or nature of signals generated by an event,
the approximation can be as good as to within 5%, and generally no worse than
within 15% agreement with almanac generated results, except for 20° Maximum
Look Angle, which approaches 25%. Overall, the average difference between all
three methods for all look angles is about 10%. Estimates from the simple analytic
method, therefore, seem adequate, remarkably across the entire range of possible
performance (zero to 90°), for use in informing acquisition decisions and to check
performance estimates made with more complex models. When considering perfor-
mance worldwide, knowing with confidence that a minimum number of satellites
will be in view is likely to be more important than knowing the spatial diversity
of cases where there is considerably more than the minimum number in view. In
support of the navigation mission, for example, it is better to know the approximate
probability of seeing at least four satellites anywhere on the earth than to know which
places on the earth have eight, nine, or ten satellites in view. For this purpose, a sim-
ple parametric random model is particularly useful because it enables estimation of
performance and mission risk. The method can be used, for example, to estimate the
risk of fielding a small-sat navigation or ABM constellation in low earth orbit where
risk is a function of the probability of receiving signals from less than a required
number satellites and total number of fielded satellites.

References

1. Boelitz, C.A., Beck, V.: Orbital Analysis Software Index Final: Report PL-TR-95-1139.
Albuquerque NM (1997)
2. Trimble, Inc., GPS Data Resources, (Online). Available: https://www.trimble.com/Support/
GPD_Data_Resources.aspx. Accessed 16 Apr. 2015
3. Kalman, R.E.: A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Trans. ASME J. Basic
Eng. 82, 35–45 (1960)
4. Everett, T.: OpEd: America’s Vulnerability in Space, 8 Feb. 2007 (Online). Available: https://
spacenews.com/oped-americas-vulnerability-space/
5. U.S. Government Accountability Office.: Global Positioning System: A Comprehensive Assess-
ment of Potential Options and Related Cots is Needed, Report to Congressional Committees,
GAO-13-729. U.S. Government, Washington D.C. (2013)
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6. Preston, B., Johnson, D.J., Edwards, S.J., Miller, M., Shipbaugh, C.: Space Weapons Earth Wars.
RAND, Washington D.C (2002)
Computer Networks, Mobility
and Pervasive Systems
CTR Prediction for Optimizing
the Negotiation of Internet Advertising
Campaigns

Jesús Silva, Jesús Vargas, Darwin Rizzo Vergara, Guillermo Araya,

César Rosado, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, and Benjamín Quintero

Abstract Web advertising campaigns have the particularity that allow to measure
the performance of campaigns based on different metrics, among which are the cost
per thousand impressions (CPM-Cost Per mille), cost per click (CPC) and the click-
to-print ratio (CTR-Click Through Ratio). For this reason, each ad has a specific
objective based on these indicators which aim to distribute the purchase of adver-
tising space on the Internet in the best possible way in order to have a better return
on investment based on these metrics. The costs incurred in the development of its
services is significant and the objectives of the campaigns are not always achieved
because it assumes the variability of Internet user behavior. This project consists
of proposing a regression model based on the historical data of the companies pro-
viding the programmatic purchasing service, in order to optimize negotiations on
performance metrics in advertising campaigns with advertisers.

J. Silva (B) · G. Araya · C. Rosado

Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Perú
e-mail: [email protected]
G. Araya
e-mail: [email protected]
C. Rosado
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Vargas · D. R. Vergara
Universidad de La Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
D. R. Vergara
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
B. Quintero
Corporación Universitaria Minute de Dios. UNIMINUTO, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 149
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_13
150 J. Silva et al.

Keywords Smart cities · Wireless sensor networks · Internet of things · Wireless

nodes · Communication architecture

1 Introduction

Today, with globalization and population growth, it is necessary to use the media to
transmit to the segments of interest the idea or product that is being offered, in order
to be competitive in markets that are increasingly larger and more complex. Inter-
net advertising is a trend today, reaching 12% [1] of total advertising expenditures
worldwide.
Within the logistics in which advertising is exposed, there is a no lesser number of
decision variables that the advertiser must take in order to design the web campaigns
[2]. There are firms that are dedicated to optimizing campaigns based on information
captured on the Internet through cookies and the individual’s own data provided by
the individual. When this type of program is not used due to its high cost or lack of
knowledge, the work of the publicist becomes more complex and he must use his
experience to optimize the campaigns [3].
The objective of this study is to generate better returns on advertising investment
using statistical evidence based on historical results, in order to argue for improve-
ments in the process of implementing campaigns based on the Real Time Purchase
(RTB) protocol [4], which consists of the protocol of selling advertising space based
on an auction in real time for those interested in buying it. The result is to evaluate
the differences between the current state and the proposed state.

2 Methodology

The method to be implemented consists of an exploratory analysis about the decision

variables that can be modified to establish an advertising strategy [5]. Along with
this, the results obtained are analyzed based on the decision variables, in order to
have a general vision of the problem itself.
Campaigns are considered at a monthly level, in which a segmentation is made
based on the aggregate behavior of the campaigns, in order to obtain better predictions
on the performance of the campaigns than those currently being carried out. The
proposed methodology is separated into four main components to produce an in-depth
analysis on the decisions taken to know if they affect different types of advertising
campaigns [6–9].
CTR Prediction for Optimizing the Negotiation … 151

2.1 Analysis, Transformation and Selection of Attributes

At the beginning, an exploratory analysis of the attributes will be carried out, looking
for the most relevant attributes that explain the performance of the advertising cam-
paigns, based on 2 objectives. The first objective of the campaign to be analyzed is the
cost per click, which determines how much money had to be invested for an internet
user to have a positive reaction and decide to click on the ad, the second performance
metric is the click rate on delivered impressions, i.e. how many impressions were
needed for a user to click [10].
For the selection of attributes, different transformations and combinations were
applied, to see which of them provide a better level of explanation of the data based
on a main component analysis. The analysis was used because it reduces the dimen-
sionality of the problem, improving the ability to interpret the attributes that are
maintained.
Once this has been done, the types of advertising campaigns will be grouped by
segments, using the behavior of the effectiveness of the campaigns as a criterion for
distinction according to the decision variables (or attributes) [11]. In other words,
advertising campaigns that are affected in similar ways by the same decision will be
grouped together. The objective of making this segmentation is to be able to divide
the problem into common parts, and then address each sub-problem separately using
the same methodology to be proposed as the term of the report.

2.2 Campaign Segmentation

Once the attributes (or their transformations) that explain the greater variability of
the data are found, a segmentation of the advertising campaigns will be carried out
based on these same attributes. To perform this segmentation, two different clustering
methods will be applied, being the first one the K-Means algorithm due to the ease
of implementation and the need to use an unsupervised method to compare it with
a supervised one [12]. The second method is a hierarchical agglomerative model,
which is supervised and depends on the experience and knowledge of the business.
The objective behind this is to make a comparison between the two different ways
of segmenting and comparing final results for each of the cases. For evaluating the
unsupervised method of segmentation, the Davies Bouldin Indicator [13] will be
used, which establishes a metric that relates how compact the segments are to the
distance between their centers in the data [14].
152 J. Silva et al.

2.3 Elasticity Analysis

Finally, the method proposes an analysis of the elasticities of the decision variables
within each of the proposed segments for a disaggregated level of the advertising
campaigns at a daily level. In order to carry out this analysis, linear models are made
with the dependent variable being the three different performance metrics established
(CPC, CTR) and the variables independent from the attributes obtained in the first
stage. The objective is to quantify the level at which each attribute (or transformation)
affects the performance of different segments of advertising campaigns [15].

2.4 The Proposed Model

It is proposed to use a linear regression model within the clusters that were generated
from the advertising strategies, to obtain how much each decision variable affects
the different performance indicators of the advertising campaigns. This model is
proposed because of the interest in knowing how best to affect the performance
of strategies and to quantify their marginal effect on global campaigns. Ease of
implementation, explanation and interpretation are ideal for the development of rules
for different sets of strategies and ease of application [16].
The objective is to predict the behavior of advertising campaigns in order to make
a more adequate projection at the time of negotiation prior to the realization of the
Internet advertisement, to reduce the costs.

3 Results

The data comes from the same study platform which is provided by the Bogota
Colombia Chamber of Commerce. Due to the confidentiality agreement and to main-
tain the same scale of magnitude, all data were standardized in the 0–1 interval
using the following transformation: each attribute is subtracted from the minimum
and divided by the maximum, maintaining the order and scaling the results by a
proportionality factor [17].
The demand-side platform provides up-to-date data on advertising campaigns at
different levels of aggregation, in different metrics and different explanatory dimen-
sions. For the first stage of the project’s design, the monthly aggregated data will be
used, which report the performance of the campaigns during the last 3 months corre-
sponding to the months of July, August and September 2019 due to the availability
of data.
The separation of data and attributes is shown below:
CTR Prediction for Optimizing the Negotiation … 153

3.1 Data Dimensions

The dimensions of the data are described as follows:

• Campaign ID: Advertising campaign identifier.
• Customer ID: Customer ID (a customer is understood as the company that wants
to advertise on the Internet).
• ID_Strategy: Identifier of the strategy of the advertising campaigns.
• Creativity_Size: Indicates the dimensions of the creatives that were used in the
advertising campaigns.

3.2 Data Attributes

Below are the attributes or characteristics of Internet advertising campaigns:

• Campaign_Budget: Total money associated with an advertising campaign (in US
dollars).
• KPI_Campaign_Type: The objective of the advertising campaign; it can be CPM
(cost per thousand impressions), CPC (cost per click) or CPA (cost per action).
• KPI_Campaign_Objective: The numerical value of the objective type of the
campaign.
• Strategy_Budget: Money associated with one of the campaign strategies. The sum
of the strategy budgets cannot exceed that of the campaign.
• Strategy_Start_Date: Time when the strategy starts to participate in the RTB
protocol.
• Strategy_End_Date: Time when the strategy finishes participating in the RTB
protocol.
• KPI_Objective_Strategy: The objective of the advertising strategy; it can be CPM
(cost per thousand impressions), CPC (cost per click) or CPA (cost per action)
[18].
• KPI_Strategy_Type: The objective of the advertising strategy; it can be CPM (cost
per thousand impressions), CPC (cost per click) or CPA (cost per action).
• Printouts: numerical value of the prints to be made.
• Clicks: Numerical value of the clicks made.
• Total_expenditure: Numerical value of the total expenditure made (in US dollars).
• Total_Expenditure_CPM: Numerical value of the expenditure per thousand
impressions made (in US dollars).
• Total_Expenditure_CPC: Numerical value of the expenditure for each click made
(in US dollars).
• CTR: Quotient between the number of clicks and the number of impressions.
• Contextual_Expenditure: Numerical value of the money spent in segmenting the
sites that provide advertising spaces for sale under the RTB protocol.
154 J. Silva et al.

Based on these attributes, the following are generated to explain the advertising
campaigns:
• Length: Temporary length of the advertising campaign.
• Speed of expenditure: Number of monetary units per hour.
• Speed of printing: Number of prints per hour.

3.3 Evaluation of Predictive Models

The quantitative evaluation of the methodology is developed by applying it and

comparing it with the current results of the company. The current way is based on
expert opinion and is intended to be compared with the results of the applied models
as described in the report.
The models chosen are linear regressions to the attributes considered in the pre-
processing of the data. For this purpose, a description of the added value of the
model will be drawn up according to its characteristics and the economic valuation
previously carried out. Data from July 1 to September 31, 2019 were used to train
the data, and the model to predict the August data was applied as an evaluation set.

3.4 CTR Prediction

3.4.1 Results Without Segmentation

In the first instance, the model with the attributes described fort the whole universe
of advertising strategies will be evaluated. For this purpose, the CTR will be used as
a dependent variable and the ones obtained in chap 2 as independent variables.
By applying the linear regression on the training data, the coefficients associated
to the mentioned attributes are obtained taking the CTR as the target variable (see
Table 1).
These estimates are obtained based on the method of ordinary least squares (R-
square of 0.82, then the attributes capture 49% of the variance of the data). Each of
the resulting values associated with each attribute will then be analyzed:
• Total_spend_cpm: The positive value emphasizes that the higher the cost of print-
ing, the better the performance in terms of CTR. Probably because more expensive
advertising spaces have better visibility to the end user.
• Contextual_cost: The positive value indicates that the higher the investment in
segmenting sites according to vendor databases, the better the variable in question
is. Although the magnitude of the associated estimator is low compared to the
others.
CTR Prediction for Optimizing the Negotiation … 155

Table 1 Results of regression without CTR segmentation

Estimated Deviation Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 5.22E + 02 1.36E + 02 2.247
Cluster_Creativities 1 −3.57E + 02 3.24E + 02 −1.965
Cluster_Creativities 2 −6.47E + 02 1.36E + 02 −4.475
Cluster_Creativities 3 −4.58E + 02 2.47E + 02 −3.147
Total_spend_cpm 4.96E + 02 3.02E + 01 9.587
Contextual_cost 6.14E–02 7.36E–01 0.087
Speed_Impressions 2.47E–02 1.47E–02 2.425
Speed_Spent −2.35E + 01 2.36E + 01 −1.623
Total_spend −3.02E–01 2.14E–01 −1.014
Length −2.04E–02 1.35E–02 −1.475
Impressions 5.24E–05 8.24E–05 0.663

Table 2 Overestimation of
Overestimates by companies 49.2%
performance metrics of real
advertising campaigns versus Overestimates by the model 47.9%
model

• Speed_Impressions: The higher the speed of impressions, the better the result
of the campaign. This is explained by the fact that users could be impacted by
advertising several times in a short time and therefore react to it.
• Speed_Spent: The more money spent, the lower the performance. It is a result of
a non-significant variable.
• Total_spend: Another not very significant parameter; it can be explained by the
fact that people can be independent from the number of appearances and the
visibility is captured by the first parameter and not by this one.
• Length: No major effect on the explanatory variable.
• Impressions: No major effect on the explanatory variable.
In order to evaluate the cost of underestimating advertising campaigns, the number
of times the model underestimates the campaigns in relation to what is done by the
companies under study is compared (see Table 2).

3.4.2 Results with Segmentation

The results are shown below after the segmentation in the advertising campaigns.
As in the results without segmentation, the costs of overestimating the campaigns
will be presented first, then the cost of underestimating the campaigns and finally
including the results in order to evaluate the model. Again, the dependent variable
will be the CTR and the independent variables will be those obtained in chap 2.
156 J. Silva et al.

Table 3 About the estimation of the performance costs of real advertising campaigns versus model
Segment % Campaigns % Campaigns Cost companies Cost Model
Underestimated Underestimated [UM] [UM]
companies (%) Model (%)
Constant 40 42 155.78 180.47
advertising
Premium 63 55 270.14 260.33
promotion
Experimentation 53 50 300.77 286.06

In the evaluation of the cost of overestimating the performance metrics of the

advertising campaigns, a regression model was applied within each of the segments
generated in Chap 2. Table 3 shows the summary of the results comparing the model
with the companies’ predictions in the month of October.
Table 3 shows the emphasis of the model on a higher performance in the segments
of premium promotion and experimentation. This is mainly due to the fact that the
companies’ predictions for unprecedented campaigns are based on the bargaining
manager’s overall experience, while for campaigns that have constant advertising, the
companies use historical information to establish their predictions, which surpasses
the model because it is information specific to the campaign already carried out.

4 Conclusions

The work done is to establish a methodology based on historical information to

improve negotiations in advertising campaigns carried out on the Internet based on
the auction protocol in real time through a group of companies. The application of
the methodology is separated into two stages that agglomerate the preparation of the
project. The first stage is to value the direct costs in the negotiation process of the
advertising campaigns, considering both the costs of underestimating and estimating
the projections of the different performance metrics in the advertising campaigns.
The second stage is to improve the prediction of the different advertising campaigns
to propose to the company customers realistic results on the performance metrics of
the advertising campaigns so that in the implementation of the campaigns it achieves
the projections and the clients are satisfied with the results.

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Classification of Authors
for a Recommendation Process
Integrated to a Scientific Meta-Search
Engine

Amelec Viloria, Tito Crissien, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama,

Luciana Pertuz, Nataly Orellano, and Carlos Vargas Mercado

Abstract The search for scientific production on the web has become a challenge,
both in terms of volume, variety and updating speed. It requires tools that help the
user to obtain relevant results when executing a query. Within these tools, this team
has developed a specific meta-search engine for the area of computer science. In its
evolution, it is intended to include recommendations from authors for each of its
users’ queries. The generation of such recommendations requires a method capable
of classifying the authors in order to define their inclusion and position in a list of
suggestions for the end-user. This paper presents a method that fulfills this objective,
after being evaluated and having obtained results that allow to propose its inclusion
in later development of the recommendation system.

Keywords Bibliometric indicators · Scientific data · Scientific authors ·

Classification scheme · Recommendation systems

A. Viloria (B) · T. Crissien

Universidad de La Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
T. Crissien
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
L. Pertuz · N. Orellano
Corporación Universitaria Minute de Dios. UNIMINUTO, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
N. Orellano
e-mail: [email protected]
C. V. Mercado
Corporación Universitaria Latinoamericana, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 159
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_14
160 A. Viloria et al.

1 Introduction

The recovery of scientific production from the web is probably one of the most impor-
tant challenges of scientific activity today [1]. The large volume of data available,
its heterogeneity and its constant updating speed make it necessary to have tools
that facilitate access to relevant information when faced with a particular query.
In response to this situation, an Information Retrieval System (IRS) was devel-
oped, specifically a domain-specific meta-search engine, for the retrieval of scientific
publications and data related to the computer sciences [2].
These types of tools are not static but are constantly evolving to provide more
relevant and quality results to their users without harming their overall performance.
Examples of this are the ranking algorithms [3], as well as the automatic generation
of query expansions [4].
In this context, one of the improvements proposed for the IRS [5] is the creation
of a method that allows the recommendation of authors related to a user’s query,
in order to reduce waiting times while the meta-search engine executes queries on
external sources, thus generating a complementary response of potential interest to
the user.
With this aim, three main tasks were identified to be solved beforehand: the sys-
tematic and automated collection of primary data [6], the need to develop a structure
that is capable of containing the collected metadata in an organized way [7], and the
classification of authors. The objective of the latter is to describe and synthesize the
trajectory of each author with respect to a research area, evaluating aspects such as
activity, validity, specificity within a specific theme and its impact on the scientific
community, among other questions.
The purpose of this paper is to define a classification method for a scientific author
recommendation system, considering metrics and indexes used in the academic field
for the evaluation of authors and their production.

2 Development of the Method for Classifying Authors

2.1 Aspects Related to Data

The systematization of the primary data retrieval for the author classification method
was structured on the basis of the previous study on the meta-search engine. The
procedures of Extraction, Transformation and Loading (ETL) of the data of the
entities involved in the processes of the meta-search engine were used [8, 9].
Classification of Authors for a Recommendation … 161

2.2 Metrics and Evaluable Aspects of Authors

In [10], all the possible evaluable aspects of a scientific author are described, detailing
for each case the techniques available and most used for their quantification. Table 1,
which summarizes the most relevant aspects for the evaluation of the trajectory, was
created in [11].
Bibliometric indices are known and used by the whole scientific community in
general. Since each indicator may present advantages and disadvantages in its use,
it has become common in the community to adopt more than one indicator in the
evaluation of authors [12]. Following this thinking, this study proposes the use of a
combination of strategically organized indices that allow the evaluation of more than
one relevant aspect. Thus, in order to develop a set of primary and derived metrics
from the most known bibliometric indices for the evaluation of authors, it is proposed
to use the following indices:
Average Impact Index (AII): In order to generate an index that reflects a unified
impact of an author’s production, the H, G and i10 indices [13] of a sample of 1478
authors were analyzed. From this analysis, the correlation between these indexes
in reflecting the authors’ trajectory was observed, because all of them are based on
the number of citations that the author’s publications have obtained. Observing this
situation, the authors propose an index that averages the previous ones, obtaining a
simplified index for the evaluation of the author defined by Eq. (1) [14].

AII(an ) = [indice H (an ) + indice G(an ) + indice I 10(an )] 3 (1)

Longevity Index (LI): this index is proposed in order to represent the author’s
academic life. This index Eq. (2) is defined as the difference between the last year
of publication and the year of first publication [15].

LI(an ) = (year of last paper) − (year of the first paper) (2)

Table 1 Evaluable aspects of the career of scientists

Aspect Definition Technique
Activity Evaluation of scientific production, its The counting of the publications
circulation, dispersion, and impact on considering the space of time between
the community them
Diversity Evaluation of the degree of specificity To determine the specificity of an author
within a field, since an author may be with respect to a thematic area by
involved in different fields of research obtaining a proportion between the
number of papers dedicated to a specific
area with respect to their total
production
Validity Relative to the half-life of a paper The counting of citations obtained in
considering its citation over time publications using time windows
162 A. Viloria et al.

Publication Rate by Time Window (PRbTW): in order to reflect an author’s per-

formance within a time window, this rate Eq. (3) is defined as the ratio of the number
of an author’s papers published between the start and end years that determine the
time window [16].

When i ∈ (yearStart, . . . , yearEnd); p ∈ publications;

P(a) = { pi is publication of the author a};

PRbTW(an ) = count(P(an )) (yearend − yearstart ) (3)

Relative Diversity Index (RDI): The diversity index (DI) defined in [17] attempts
to reflect the degree of participation that an author has in relation to various fields
of research within a science or area of knowledge. In this index, the highest values
correspond to those authors who have a high degree of participation in various fields.
In order to evaluate the diversity of an author according to a given context, an index
is proposed that calculates the degree of diversity of an author with respect to other
authors Eq. (4). To this end, the distance between the highest diversity index of a
collection and a given author is calculated, so that the closest and the furthest are
close to 1 and 0, respectively [18].

ID(an )
IDR(an ) = (4)
max (ID(a1 ), ID(a2 ), . . . , ID(az ))

2.3 Classification of Authors

Since no standardized classification of authors according to their scientific back-

ground was found in the literature, the definition of a set of classes that were con-
sidered representative of the different varieties of authors was proposed. For each
index, a threshold was established to determine whether or not an author met all the
conditions for belonging to a class [19].
A classification scheme is proposed consisting of seven classes that synthesize the
trajectory of the authors and the aspects considered of interest within the scientific
community, organized in the following groupings [20, 21, 22]:
New Authors: Those authors whose time of activity in the scientific work is
reduced and who have had a considerable impact with respect to their colleagues
with equal time of activity. Restrictions applied:
(a) Longevity index between 1 and 5 years.
(b) The Number of Quotations must be equal to or greater than the 30th percentile
of the Number of Quotations of all authors who meet the condition (a).
Top Authors: Those authors who have shown an above-average impact on their
colleagues, standing out in the scientific community. Restrictions:
Classification of Authors for a Recommendation … 163

(c) AII greater than or equal to 150% of the standard deviation value obtained from
the series of AII of all authors.
Expert Authors: Those who have worked on projects in a particular field and are
referenced in the same due to the impact of their work. Restrictions:
(d) The author’s RDI must be below 45%. Excluding from the calculation the values
that exceed the Upper Limit considered abnormal values.
(e) The AII must be higher than the 40th percentile of the AII of all authors,
excluding values that exceed the Upper Limit because they are considered
anomalous.
Trending Authors: Authors who have produced new or innovative papers in a field
of knowledge that has provided them with a considerable impact on the community
in recent years. Restrictions:
(f) The author cannot be a trend maker if he or she complies with the restrictions
of an expert author.
(g) The PRbTW of the last 5 years must be greater than the value of his entire career.
(h) The AII of the author must be greater than the first quartile (1Q) of the AII of
all authors who meet the condition (g).
Authors with Trajectory: Those authors who have developed a career as
researchers and have made contributions with impact within the sciences of the
scientific community. Restrictions:
(i) AII must be greater than the second quartile (2Q) of the PRI of all authors.
One Hit Wonder Authors: These are those authors who have made an impact on the
community for a limited time, but no continuity has been observed in their scientific
work, at least as far as publications of their authorship are concerned. Restrictions:
• The Longevity Index should be equal to 1 year.
• The AII should be greater than the median or 2Q of the AII of all authors with
longevity of less than or equal to 5 years.
Unclassified authors: These authors do not correspond to any of the above group-
ings; therefore, it was decided to group them into a class that would allow further
studies.

2.4 Proposed Algorithm for Classification of Authors

Although it can be preliminarily concluded that the classification process may consist
of the direct application of axioms on a set of authors, to do so without a strategy
that allows the calculation of several indices and the verification of all the conditions
for each of the classes would be an inefficient use of the calculation process [2].
Additionally, if there are more specific classes in the evaluation of authors, which is
164 A. Viloria et al.

Table 2 Algorithm for the classification of authors

Variables: author: i-th author of a collection. Authors_without_classify: vector whose
elements correspond to unclassified authors.
New AII: vector with the AII of authors with less than 5 years of academic activity.
AII_all: vector with the AII of all authors.
AII_experts_LLS: vector with the AII of the authors below the upper limit with respect to
all authors.
AII_trend: vector with the AII of the authors who have an
average of major publications in the last 5 years. CC_new: vector with the number of
citations of the authors with less than 5 years of academic activity.
For each author in authors_without classifying: if calcLongevity (authori) <= 1
and AII> calc2Cuartil (IIP_new) classifyAsOneHitWonder (autori)
but calcLogevity (autori) <= 5
and calcPercentile30 (CC_new)> = number of Appointments (author) classify as New
(author)
but (calcIndexOfDiversity (autori)
and calcAII (autori) <calcLimitSuperior (IIP_all) and calcRelativeDiversity (autori) <0.45
and calcAII (autori)> = calcPercentile40 (IIP_experts_LLS)) classify as Expert (authori)
but calcPromPubs5anios (autori)> = calcPromPubsTotalYears (autori) and calc1Cuartil
(AII_trend) <calcAII (autori)
Classify as Trend (autori)
but calcAII (autori)> = 1.5 * calcStandarDeviation (AII_all) classify AsTop (autori)
but calcAII (autori)> calc2Quartile (AII_all) classify as a Path (autori)
if not
Classify as Without Classification (Author)
End

reflected in the number of indices used and the acceptance thresholds, some classes
are more specific than others that evaluate more general aspects.
In order to solve these questions, an ad hoc Boolean decision tree author classifi-
cation algorithm is proposed that, given a specific sequence in the evaluation of the
available data, allows an efficient classification (see Table 2).

3 Experimentation and Results

In the literature of the area, it could be observed that the classification methods are
generally evaluated according to two dimensions: the classification scheme itself and
the classification decisions [20].
In [21], it is argued that when a classification scheme has the lowest possible
degree of uncertainty, the more effective its classification decisions will be. This is
achieved when one has the greatest knowledge about the domain in which it is being
developed. For this reason, an evaluation of the scheme was carried out by analyzing
the degree of uncertainty for each dimension:
Classification of Authors for a Recommendation … 165

• Purpose: Authors’ properties for generating the classification are based on widely
used bibliometric indexes and can be generated from knowledge of any author’s
publications and number of citations.
• Class: Because the classification is proposed in this paper, all restrictions defined
by each class are known, so it is clear and precise.
• Schematic: There is an average degree of uncertainty in this dimension because
there is no single established standard that allows for a widely accepted definition
by the community.
For the evaluation of classification decisions, the approach proposed in [21] was
followed, which proposes to evaluate the goodness of fit of each class when evaluating
authors. In this case, the evaluation process consisted of the execution of a series of
automatic classification algorithms on a set of previously classified authors’ data
using the method proposed in this paper. The objective of this task was to verify if
an automatic method could be trained based on the generated classification and then
to evaluate the effectiveness of the results.
Following this approach, a database of authors extracted from the MAS and
AMiner platforms was set up using an automated ETL process developed for the
meta-search engine. In this way, the dataset was made up of a total of 3451 author
profiles following the structure defined in [5]. Later, a series of classification methods
were selected, some of them from the TDIDT2 family as they are: C4.5, Random
Forest, Simple CART and Rule Induction (RI), together with a multilayer percep-
tual neural network and a Bayesian classifier implemented in the WEKA tool. The
parameters of the methods used were established with the default values set by the
tool, provided that the dataset did not require any kind of adjustment due to its
characteristics.
The results obtained from the training-testing process (70/30 ratio of the dataset)
of the mentioned methods are detailed in Table 3.
For the recall or exhaustiveness, it is observed that the classes Trend and OHW
present the lowest percentage of effectiveness with respect to the classes Top and
New, respectively, this is probably due to the fact that these classes are similar in

Table 3 Results of automatic classification algorithms

Evaluation C4.5 (%) RF (%) Simple CART RI (%) RNA-MC (%) Bayes (%)
criteria (%)
Accuracy 96.14 96.14 94.4 93.32 82.85 82.01
Classification 5.25 4.58 6.3 8.14 20.14 20.36
error
Weighted 96.36 96.36 95.66 79.85 75.36 82.45
mean
precision
Weighted 95.74 94.47 87.85 80.36 75.40 75.52
mean recall
166 A. Viloria et al.

certain aspects, however, the restrictions established by class define their belonging
to one or another.

4 Conclusions

A method for classifying scientific authors was generated within the framework of
an IRS in the area of computer science. The method presented includes the definition
of a series of classes that represent different stages in the career of a researcher,
considering diverse factors such as the impact generated, their specialization and
their trajectory. The development presented was validated in terms of its definition
and relevance, and on a dataset in which the classification was applied, automatic
classification algorithms were tested, obtaining results of high effectiveness and low
error rate.

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Performance Evaluation of a Hybrid
Vehicle and Sensor Network to Prevent
Traffic Accidents

Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, and Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama

Abstract In recent years, wireless networks have become a widespread commu-

nication technology as well as a research challenge. Many contributions have been
made on ad hoc networks, such as wireless sensor networks (WSNs) and vehicular
ad hoc networks (VANETs). Recently, the number of cars on our streets, roads, and
highways has been increasing, giving rise to a great interest in vehicular commu-
nication technologies. This paper presents an hybrid sensor and vehicular network
(HSVN) platform, as well as the description and evaluation of a communication
protocol between VANETs and WSNs using a network simulator for its evaluation.

Keywords Hybrid sensor and vehicular network (HSVN) · Vehicular ad hoc

networks (VANETs) · Wireless sensor networks (WSNs)

1 Introduction

Research into short-range technologies has increased in recent years [1, 2]. Ad hoc
networks have therefore received more attention because of the ease of deployment
they entail. An ad hoc network [3] is formed by a group of nodes that communicate
with each other with a wireless interface and can work both with fixed infrastructure
and without any kind of infrastructure. There are two types of ad hoc networks in the
environment in which this work is proposed: the wireless sensor networks (WSNs) [4]
and the vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) [5]. Both are ad hoc networks capable

J. Silva (B)
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
N. Varela
Universidad de La Costa (CUC), Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 169
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_15
170 J. Silva et al.

of operating without any defined infrastructure and without centralized management.

The organization of this network is in charge of the same nodes that form it. Each
node is capable of working as a sender, receiver, or simple repeater of information.
The nodes in a WSN are static, while the nodes in the VANET can reach high speeds.
The frequent changes in the topology due to the mobility of vehicles in the VANET
require the design of a flexible routing protocol that adapts to these node speeds
[6, 7].
A hybrid sensor and vehicular network (HSVN) is a new concept that allows the
inclusion of sensors along roads [8]. Information on environmental conditions, such
as rain or ice, and traffic density on remote routes can be monitored by the vehicles,
which will then be stored in the WSN so that it can be distributed through other
vehicles that later pass through the road segment determined by a group of sensors.
The main purpose of this type of network is that cars within a VANET can share
information regarding weather conditions, traffic status, and road safety, in order to
reduce the number of accidents [9, 10]. The timely exchange of this information will
enable users to travel more safely along their journeys. For a theoretical review of
concepts on VANET and WSN, see [11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16].

2 Proposed Communication Protocol Between WSN

and VANET

Below is a description of the communication algorithm between WSN and VANET

that was designed for this study. The main objective is to meet all types of commu-
nication that can occur between a vehicle and a static sensor on the road [17]. Three
types of communication between WSN and VANET are presented.

2.1 Communication Between a Static Sensor on a WSN

and a Vehicle on a VANET

2.1.1 WSN → Vehicle

• A packet is transmitted containing information about the road condition of all

those segments that it knows about and that are within the vehicle’s route to its
destination. It is assumed that all nodes (car and sink) have a consistent navigator
(i.e., same map, same segments). Also, road information is included for all seg-
ments to destinations other than the vehicle’s own destination, as this information
may be of interest to other vehicles. The following information is contained in
the packet:
• For each road segment, there is a header field (2 bits) that includes information
about the traffic density status of that segment.
Performance Evaluation of a Hybrid Vehicle and Sensor Network … 171

• For each road segment, there is a header field (2 bits). The data encoding is: 0 =
good condition, 1 = ice, 2 = rain, and 3 = accident.
• A packet containing a low-resolution image (approximately 50 kbytes) of the next
crossing within its path is transmitted.

2.1.2 Vehicle → WSN

• In case there is new information related to the condition of the road, the WSN is
responsible for updating this information in its database.

2.1.3 Vehicle → WSN

• The vehicle leaves the transmission range of the WSN sink and the connection
ends.

2.2 Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication—Vehicles Moving

in the Same Direction

2.2.1 Vehicle B → Vehicle A

• This includes the group ID (identification, 20 bits), in addition to the coordinates

of its destination.

2.3 Vehicle A → Vehicle B

• Road information is transmitted regarding all those segments that are within the
route of vehicle B to its destination and also road information regarding roads that
have other routes.
• A packet containing a low-resolution image (approximately 50 kbytes) of the next
crossing within its path is transmitted.
172 J. Silva et al.

2.4 Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication—Vehicles Moving

in Opposite Directions

2.4.1 Vehicle A in One Direction → Vehicle C in the Opposite Direction

• In the case of detecting a vehicle in the opposite direction, the connection is

established only by the first vehicles of each group (group leader).

Below are some calculations on the amount of information exchanged by the

ad hoc nodes of an HSVN and the time available for vehicles and sensor nodes to
proceed with this exchange. As an example, the focus will be on the road scenario,
with similar calculations for the highway and city scenarios. In a single 1000-octet
packet (size of the transmitted packets that were used), it is possible to code up
to 1995 segments (1995 = (1000 * 8–20bits_ID)/4bits_header). For a road trip, a
typical exchange between a WSN sink and a car belonging to the VANET will include
information about 10 segments corresponding to the information of the destination
of interest of that car [18]. It is worth mentioning that there is space available within
a single packet to include information about 198 more road destinations, where
198 = [(1995–10)/10]. On a motorway, a packet may carry information about 40
destinations (1995/50) and, in a city environment, about 80 destinations (1995/25).
• Highway, information on 40 destinations per packet.
• Road, information on 198 destinations per packet.
• City, information on 80 destinations per packet.
These values correspond to the MAC IEEE 802.11.b, since it is the one used in the
simulations of this work since it is the MAC currently implemented in the simulator
chosen to test the first proposal in a general scenario. In the future, the intention
is to work with the 802.11.p MAC, more specifically for vehicular environments.
However, the communication protocol designed in this paper works independently
of the MAC, either IEEE802.11b or IEEE802.11p [19, 20].
A maximum speed of v(km/h) and a sink node transmission range of r(m) were
considered. The time available for the exchange of information between vehicle
and WSN sink nodes is therefore T available = 2r/v (sec). For the three scenarios
considered, a sink node coverage radius of r = 80 m, which provides available times
for the information transaction of:
• Highway, v = 120 km/h, T available = 2r/v = 4.8 s.
• Road, v = 80 km/h, T available = 2r/v = 7.2 s.
• City, v = 50 km/h, T available = 2r/v = 11.52 s.
The information related to the segments of the path will be sent in a simple packet
of size p = 2000 bytes, which takes T segments_road = p/th = 1.20 ms to be sent. It takes
50 packets to send a 55 kbyte image, which takes T image = 0.058 s (55 kbytes/7Mbps).
So, the total time needed to send such information is T required = T segments_road + T image
= 0.058 s. Any exchange of information (data and images) between the vehicle and
Performance Evaluation of a Hybrid Vehicle and Sensor Network … 173

Fig. 1 Temporary interchange available for message interchange

the WSN sink sensor must take place in such a way that T required < T available . The
previous issues show that it is possible. The illustration of these intervals can be
found in Fig. 1. In addition, more images from other intersections can be sent later,
since there is still time until the end of coverage.

3 Simulation and Results

To validate the proposed communication protocol between WSNs and VANETs,

several simulations of data transmission between different nodes in an HSVN were
performed [21]. A simple scenario was used (a sink node and a group of four vehicles),
which assumes that the sink already has the information monitored by the different
sensors belonging to the WSN. In the simulations, the sink sends segment data packets
to the last car in the group. For this purpose, the other cars in the group function as a
transmission route for the routing protocol. The cars are separated from each other
by a distance of 130 m.
The mobile nodes have the CarAgent program, present in the simulator, which
allows the nodes to follow the designed road. Car speeds, packet sizes, and the routing
protocol were modified for observing the network behavior. Packet loss was analyzed
under two routing protocols and with different parameters mentioned above. These
parameters are listed in Table 1.
In the simulations, the behavior of the AODV protocol [20] with respect to the
DSR [12] was compared in terms of lost packets. The protocols used are DSR and
AODV, both of which are reactive protocols, but differ in that DSR includes the list
174 J. Silva et al.

Table 1 Simulation
Node speed 40–80 km/h
parameters
Number of lanes in the track 4 (two in each direction)
Size of the road 2 km
Number of mobile nodes in the 4
VANET
Number of nodes in the WSN 1 sink node
Transmission ranges 200 m
Routing protocol in the HSVN AODV and DSR
Packet size 520, 1120 y 1500 octets
Simulation time 80 s
Data transmission 1Mbps
MAC IEEE 802.11b
Nominal capacity 12 Mbps

of all the nodes it must pass through to reach its destination in the packet header.
In AODV, the packet only includes the destination address and the address of the
next hop to follow, in addition to using a small routing table of neighboring nodes.
These protocols were used because they are the ones implemented in the NCTUns
simulator.
In addition, a confidence interval of 80% is presented for the values obtained,
where five simulations were carried out for each scenario. Figure 2 shows the evolu-
tion of packet loss using the AODV protocol. Figure 3 shows the packet loss using
the DSR protocol. According to the results, it can be seen that AODV has a good
behavior in the case of low speeds (less than 80 km/h), so it would be an ideal pro-
tocol if used in city scenarios where speeds are usually moderate. In the case of the
DSR protocol, it has a low loss rate compared to AODV in the case of using high
speeds, using 1000-octet packets that produce fewer losses.

Fig. 2 Evolution of packet

loss for AODV
Performance Evaluation of a Hybrid Vehicle and Sensor Network … 175

Fig. 3 Evolution of packet

loss for DSR

4 Conclusions

This paper shows the behavior of the AODV and DSR protocols’ packet loss in
an HSVN that includes the proposed communication protocol between WSN and
VANET. The result of the simulation shows the efficiency of AODV for low speed
(city) and DSR scenarios in high speed (highway).

References

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Comparison of Bio-inspired Algorithms
Applied to the Hospital Mortality Risk
Stratification

Jesús Silva, Yaneth Herazo-Beltrán, Freddy Marín-González, Noel Varela,

Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, Pablo Palencia, and Carlos Vargas Mercado

Abstract The construction of patient classification (or risk adjustment) systems

allows comparison of the effectiveness and quality of hospitals and hospital services,
providing useful information for management decision making and management of
hospitals. Risk adjustment systems to stratify patients’ severity in a clinical outcome
are generally constructed from care variables and using statistical techniques based
on logistic regression (RL). The objective of this investigation is to compare the
hospital mortality prediction capacity of an artificial neural network (RNA) with
other methods already known.

Keywords Hospital mortality · Risk stratification · Intensive care unit · Artificial

neural networks · Bootstrap

J. Silva (B)
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
Y. Herazo-Beltrán
Universidad Simón Bolívar, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
F. Marín-González · N. Varela
Universidad de La Costa (CUC), Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
N. Varela
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
P. Palencia
Corporación Universitaria Minute de Dios. UNIMINUTO, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
C. V. Mercado
Corporación Universitaria Latinoamericana, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 177
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_16
178 J. Silva et al.

1 Introduction

Artificial neural networks (RRs) are calculation systems that resemble biological
neural networks when using interconnected nodes (neurons). These nodes receive
the information, perform operations on the data, and transmit their results to other
nodes. The procedure is to train the RFs to learn complex patterns of relationships
between the predictor and outcome variables, and they are able to face new data by
giving the expected answers [1].
They are defined as nonlinear, flexible, and highly generalized systems. These
properties have led to their dissemination in all scientific fields and for their equiv-
alence or superiority to some statistical techniques to be demonstrated. Interest in
the application of RNAs in medicine over the past 10 years has only increased,
as reflected in the progressively increasing number of publications that include this
methodology. The areas they have been occupying are image recognition, wave anal-
ysis, pharmacology procedures, epidemiology, prediction of results, and diagnostic
processes [2, 3].
The use of RFs for risk stratification offers as an advantage a possible increase
in predictive power (accuracy), which has been assessed by 5–10%, as they do not
work with the rigid limitations of statistical models. Compared to RL techniques,
RRs take into account nonlinear relationships, automatically, without the need to
follow a particular model, and the possible interdependence of input variables [4].
Intensive care unit (ICU) is commonly used for probability of death calculation
systems (as a criterion of severity for the sick), and one of the most common systems
is acute physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) built with RL
technique. The objectives of our work are to demonstrate the usefulness of the neural
network-based methodology for risk stratification, applying it to the calculation of
probability of hospital mortality, using the APACHE II system variables in ICU (as
a sample of study). A logistic regression model is used for reference.

2 Methodology

2.1 Subject

The study was carried out in a multipurpose ICU in Colombia. Patients have been
studied over a 5-year period (2010–2015). Coronary patients, heart surgery subjects,
and burns are not included. Patients under the age of 16 have been excluded, those
who have moved and those who have stayed less than 24 h admitted. Only the first
admission has been taken into account in patients who re-enter. The demographic,
evolution, and severity variables necessary for the calculation of the APACHE II
system have been collected prospectively by a trained team. The conduct of the study
was approved by the hospital’s ethics committee ensuring at all times the anonymity
of patients [1].
Comparison of Bio-inspired Algorithms Applied … 179

2.2 Variables

14 physiological variables are used (extended from 12 to 14, since to assess oxygena-
tion we use PaO2 , plus FiO2 and PaCO2), age and two variables to determine score
according to chronic disease (chronic disease and urgent/programmed) that com-
plete 17 input variables. The output variable is hospital mortality. The calculation
of the probability of death based on APACHE II is done as standard, converting the
APACHE II score and applying the logistic formula with the coefficients published
in the original article of [5]; adjustment by diagnostic groups as it would motivate the
addition of more than 40 variables. The 2325 patients who met the inclusion criteria
were randomly assigned, 75% to the development group, and the remaining 25% to
the validation group.

2.3 Bootstrap Resampling of the Development Group

As the number of cases available for the development of the model is limited, there
is a risk that they will have poor representativeness of the population; therefore, we
must use techniques that optimize the available data to achieve a good generalization.
As a solution, we apply resampling techniques (bootstrap) that have proven useful
for this purpose. In our case, to achieve sufficient accuracy, this resampling must be
repeated at least 300 times [6].

2.4 Logistic Regression Model

A multiple logistic regression model is used with the addition of all variables (full
model). The calculation will be made on the 300 bootstrap samples in the develop-
ment group. The resulting 300 models (their coefficients) will be used to calculate
the probabilities in the original development set. With these 300 probabilities we
calculate the average probability, expressed as P-RL-D, and its standard error [7].

2.5 Artificial Neural Network Model

The type of network used is a multilayer perceptron trained with backpropagation

algorithm and sigmoid activation function. We use a 3-layer model (input, hide, and
output). The selection of the optimal architecture and parameters is based on an
empirical procedure and cross-validation. The development set is divided (50% to
ensure representativeness) into one training set and a verification set. This split is
done randomly and is repeated 10 times to compare the results on these 10 occasions
[8].
180 J. Silva et al.

Supervised training involves the repeated presentation of the training set to the
network; in each iteration, an adjustment of the weights is made to minimize the
network error function. Weights are the internal values of the network that resemble
the synaptic forces of biological models. The evaluated cost function or error function
(both in the training and verification set) is the root of the mean quadratic error
(ECM) between the predictions and the actual values. Nodes are added or removed
from the hidden layer until the ECM (in the verification set) is minimized, which
also determines the time to stop training. Other parameters that are modified during
the training process (learning coefficient, moment, etc.) are adjusted to achieve this
optimization [9].

2.6 Artificial Neural Network Training

The training conditions set out in the previous point will be used to train 300 networks
with the data of the 300 bootstrap resamples of the development set. When these
networks are faced with data from the original development set, they determine 300
probabilities and their mean is called P-RNA-D [10].

2.7 Model Validation

Both the 300 logistic regression models and the 300 trained networks must face data
from the validation set. The calculated average probabilities will be identified as
P-RL-V and P-RNA-V, respectively [11].

2.8 Comparison of Models

To compare the different models, their properties of discrimination will be measured

by means of the area under the ROC curve (ABC) and the calibration with the Hosmer-
Lemeshow C22 goodness-of-fit test, the construction of the calibration curves, and
the calculation of the reasons for standardized mortality (MeR, which is the ratio
between the number of deaths observed and the number of deaths expected according
to the prediction model) with their confidence intervals. We use the Bland–Altman
test to evaluate the concordance between the probabilities obtained by each model.
We define extreme case when the patient reaches a probability difference between
the RL model and the RNA model with absolute value equal to or greater than 0.2.
Statistical calculations were performed with the SPSS 14.0 program. The program
used for networking is Qnet 97 (Vesta Services Inc.) [12].
Comparison of Bio-inspired Algorithms Applied … 181

3 Results

Artificial neural network model The selection method led us to an optimal architecture
with 9 nodes in the hidden layer and fully interconnected nodes. The starting point
of the training was set at 1500 iterations. The parameters of the network training
process were a learning coefficient of 0.01 and the time of 0.3.

3.1 Comparison of Models

Table 1 shows the results of the comparison between the various models. Good results
are appreciated, both in discrimination and calibration, of the APACHE II system
(in the development and validation set). Significantly higher values are observed in
the ABC ROC RNA compared to the APACHE II model. The RNA, compared to
the RL model, shows better values (which are maintained in the validation group) in
both discrimination and calibration, although these values do not reach a significant
difference. Figure 1 shows the ROC curves and calibration curves for the validation
group.
P-AP-II: probability of the APACHE II model (confidence interval [IC] calculated
according to Hanley and McNeil’s work); P-RL: average probability of 200 bootstrap
logistic regression models; P-RNA: average probability of 200 bootstrap models of
artificial neural network; development: n × 800 patients; validation: n × 346; ABC:
area under the ROC curve (95% CI); HL-C: Hosmer-Lemeshow C test with 8 degrees
of freedom for the development group and 10 for the validation group (p > 0.05
determines a correct test); RME: standardized mortality ratio (95% CI).

Table 1 Comparison of
P-AP-II P-RL P-RNA
results of the different models
of probability of death ABC (IC of
calculation the 95%)
Development 0.82 0.81 0.87
(0.77–0.83) (0.79–0.85) (0.84–0.91)
Validation 0.80 0.82 0.81
(0.74–0.83) (0.75–0.83) (0.78–0.83)
HL-C (p)
Development 17.44 (0.040) 12.23 (0.132) 6.68 (0.468)
Validation 12.38 (0.295) 29.58 (0.001) 11.32 (0.325)
RME (IC del
95%)
Development 1.08 1.04 1.02
(0.95–1.21) (0.96–1.20) (0.98–1.10)
Validation 1.21 1.17 1.14
(1.04–1.30) (1.01–1.23) (0.98–1.19)
182 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 1 ROC curves and calibration curves in the validation group. a ROC curves. b Calibration
curves. Single line: Probability APACHE II; dashed line: Average probability of the bootstrap
logistic regression model; thick line: Average probability of the bootstrap artificial neural network
model

3.2 Analysis by Diagnostic Groups

In traumatic patients (28%), no model achieves sufficient accuracy (the APACHE

II system is shown as the best model, but with ABC ROC less than 0.77 and poor
calibration in both the development and validation assembly). In respiratory patients
(26%), the best results are achieved with neural networks; and within this group,
patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (14%) they are the worst
performing with APACHE II and with RL maintaining acceptable RNA properties
(ABC s 0.86 [0.77–0.92]) [4].

3.3 Comparison of Probabilities Between Models

The Bland–Altman technique (Fig. 2) shows us the lack of consistency in the proba-
bility assignment between the RL and RNA models (results shown in the validation
set). The highest match tends to occur at the low values of the probability range
and is lost by exceeding the calculated 36% chance of death. 95 patients (7%) were
identified from the total study group as extreme cases. It is difficult to analyze the
interrelationship between variables, but we find that in the subgroup of these patients
where the probability assigned by RL is clearly higher than that calculated by RNA
(42 patients), most (43 patients) have neurological alterations, and we appreciate that
the Glasgow variable becomes more important in the RL model while maintaining
similar values for the rest of the variables.
Comparison of Bio-inspired Algorithms Applied … 183

Fig. 2 Bland–Altman test (validation group) between the probabilities calculated by the logistic
regression method versus the probabilities calculated by artificial neural network model. The dotted
lines differentiate (above or below) to 2 standard deviations—the mean of the difference between the
probabilities; P-RNA-V: Average probability of 300 bootstrap trained networks; P-RLV: Average
probability of 300 bootstrap logistic regression models

4 Conclusions

The first analysis of our results is aimed at the good results found with the APACHE
II model, since this fact did not coincide with other results that we had obtained with
smaller series that analyzed less years in our database. Our ICU is characterized by
fewer surgical patients scheduled and more mortality than the series that originally
served to make the APACHE II system. We used this argument to justify, above all,
deviations in calibration, which is almost optimal now that we can analyze more
patients. This supports the concept of the large dependence of the sample size on any
risk stratification analysis.
The high mortality found in our series is also conditioned by not including coro-
nary patients. We were unable to include them due to follow-up care issues, given
the characteristics of this group of patients’ care in our hospital. As a global result, in
our work we find better results with the RNA-based methodology, although they do
not become significant. This result is similar to that achieved with other series. In a
review conducted by [13], which analyzed 28 studies in cancer patients, it concludes
that the networks are equivalent to or slightly higher than RL, as they do not have to
rely on rigid requirements for variable or model independence Linear.
We also see that despite using resampling and cross-validation techniques we have,
in our series, some “overlearning” problem: The network learns the patterns of the
training set very precisely, but loses in the ability to generalization when faced with
new data from the validation set. Working with networks, the conditions necessary
to achieve a good generalization focus on three aspects: (a) that the information
collected in the data is sufficient (this affects the size of the series and the quality in
the collection of data); (b) that the “function” learned by the network is smooth (small
184 J. Silva et al.

changes in input variables will cause small changes in the output variable), and (c)
that the size of the training set is sufficient and representative of the total data. The
required size is determined by the number of network parameters, and 5 records are
required per estimated parameter. In our example with 17 input variables, 9 hidden
nodes, and one output node (which are 162 parameters), 800 cases are sufficient [14].
The algorithm we propose meets these conditions when working with limited
series and can be applied in another type of population or health problem. There are
other procedures based on different resampling and learning techniques that have
been applied in other populations. Obtaining similar results, in the properties of
discrimination and calibration with statistical and neural prediction models, has led
some authors to claim that the relationship between variables is independent and
virtually linear [15].
We provide the view that being able to obtain different individual probabilities
implies that the relationship between variables is different when applying RL or
RNA. It is true that the interpretation of this interrelationship is difficult (black box
concept of RNA) [16], but we can study patients who define themselves as extreme
cases (patients with neurological problems in our series), or compare the different
behavior according to diagnostic groups (e.g., our different outcomes in traumatic
and COPD patients).

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Information and Communication
Technology in Education
Articulation of Teaching
and Technological Resources
in the Teaching–Learning Process
of the English Language

Albán Rocha Gina Alexandra , Salazar Mera Javier Vinicio ,

Collaguazo Vega Wilmer Patricio , and Paredes Viteri Santiago Efrain

Abstract At present, societies are classified as information and knowledge soci-

eties, where human beings have easy access to Information and Communication
Technologies (ICT), which have transformed all areas of the life of human beings.
The educational field is not an exception. It requires a methodological, didactic,
organizational, curricular, training, spatial and temporal rethinking from an innova-
tive perspective based on the incorporation of new trends and emerging technologies
that facilitate communication to develop skills and skills to read, write, listen and
speak in different languages, as is the case of the English language. In this study, it
is considered that it is a crucial factor in the development of the teaching process
of the English language, the articulation of didactic and technological resources to
boost this process. Therefore, a manual of articulation of educational and techno-
logical resources is proposed that allows the dynamization of the learning process
of the English language, from new tools for the development of competences in the
language, from the problems identified with the field investigation. The application
and evaluation of the proposal allowed corroborating the relevance of the proposal.

Keywords Articulation · Didactic · Dynamization · Resources · Technology

A. R. G. Alexandra (B)
Departamento de Seguridad y Defensa, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas - ESPE, Av. General
Rumiñahui y Ambato, Sangolqui 170501, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
S. M. J. Vinicio
Universidad Tecnica de Ambato, Ambato, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
C. V. W. Patricio
Universidad Tecnica de Cotopaxi, Latacunga, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
P. V. S. Efrain
Escuela Tecnica de la Fuerza Aerea Ecuatoriana, Latacunga, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 189
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_17
190 A. R. G. Alexandra et al.

1 Introduction

The importance of the articulation of teaching and technological resources is a deter-

mining factor for the dynamization of the English learning process; it is taken into
account from the critical review of bibliographic sources and research related to the
subject. It is a reality that students feel much more motivated when teaching resources
are used when classes cease to be traditional models and become interactive, novel
and attractive spaces. Hence, the use of technology, student participation, collabora-
tive learning, generates high degrees of motivation and, therefore, greater awareness
from having a more active role and a higher degree of interactivity.
Teachers, from their role, must have as fundamental purposes, the development
of creativity and skills in their students. It is precisely from these perspectives that
teaching resources are required where they become tools of supports, aids, means to
energize learning situations, generating motivation to increase interest in students.
Hence, the quality of teaching requires working and planning on the basis of innova-
tive, interactive resources, according to the characteristics of the new generations, in
a proper and adequate way within the educational process, with the aim of making
the class more responsive, participatory, practical and enjoyable.
The current educational system considers the implementation of teaching
resources within the classroom to be of great importance as a tool to support the
teacher as they provide the necessary conditions for the student to carry out the
activities programmed to the fullest advantage.
The above-mentioned allows to corroborate the conceptions that are present in the
reality of educational institutions, and it is the fact that only in this way can significant
learning be promoted through the interaction between teacher and student, students
and activity and student with their peer, achieving a new learning methodology.
The active learning model is postulated as one of the most effective means between
the teacher–student relationship, aimed at the student creating, building, innovative
knowledge in a participatory, dynamic, active and meaningful way.
Therefore, these resources have to be in line with the educational context in order
to be effective, that is, to enable the student to learn in a lasting way and to contribute
to maximize their motivation, so that the teaching–learning practice is enriched; in
general, there are very valid references for the formation of this research; albeit there
are no similar initiatives at the national level, nor research that has been systematized
on the current study, but its validity is that there are no similar initiatives at the national
level, nor research that has been systematized on the necessary integration of didactic
and technological resources for teaching the English language. In this way, it can
be stated that the fundamental purpose is to guide teachers and provide a practical,
theoretical tool for the management of resources that revitalize the teaching–learning
process of English.
The project made it possible to implement novel, interactive teaching resources
and their subsequent articulation with traditional resources to improve English lan-
guage learning in students. In this sense, this research is of considerable importance
because of it generates an innovative proposal, of high scientific novelty, since it
Articulation of Teaching and Technological Resources … 191

does not have enough sources of research and projects focused on strengthening the
teaching process learning from new resources and methodologies, which allows the
development of their basic skills.
As part of the objectives of this research, the general objective is to design and
implement a guide to the articulation of teaching and technological resources through
the use of ICTs to energize the teaching–learning process of the English language
in the candidates of the LV promotion at the Air Force Technical School and soldier
candidates at the School of Soldier Training “Vencedores del Cenepa” ESFORSE,
promotion 2018–2020.
For the achievement of this objective, the approach of specific objectives has
been considered as: Theoretically foundation, the fundamental categories of research,
perform a diagnostic study of the incidence of resources and methodologies employed
by the teacher in the acquisition of the basic skills and competences of the English
language, select the main contents of the guide, as well as its methodology of use,
structuring, and evaluation, validate the proposed guide from its implementation in
the English subject.

2 State of the Art

Teaching resources are the set of techniques and resources that are planned according
to the needs of the student population; it is also noted that criteria should be taken into
account at the time they are to be planned. These include the sociological character-
istics of the students, those that are desired, the social context, the level of knowledge
they possess, among others, to ensure the success of the objective posed [1]. From
these perspectives, it can be stated, in the author’s view, that the teaching resources
are auxiliaries, supports, instruments, materials or tools that help the teacher in the
learning process to adequately transmit knowledge in addition to achieve meaningful
learning, to make it attractive, suggestive and exciting to the student; that will enable
the continuous improvement of the learning–teaching process by making it more
meaningful and permanent.
Some analyses allow to understand the difference between a resource and a teach-
ing environment, if teaching resources are considered to be any support material that
the teacher uses to facilitate the development of the activities of the subject addressed
in classes while teaching means are resources developed by teachers, which are used
as part of the teaching process; video, images, voices, music, among others [2]. The
effectiveness of the training process will depend on the effectiveness of the resources
used and the impact they generate on students, coupled with pedagogical skills for
curricular planning and design [3]. There are cross-cutting axes to the learning–teach-
ing process, where the teaching and technological resources are located, focused on
group integration, collaborative work and the relationship between the teacher, as a
facilitator of learning, and the student leading the way in the process, and when the
classroom is conceived as a communicative space, the whole situation is different
before, during and after class.
192 A. R. G. Alexandra et al.

It is necessary to involve students through resources that help stimulate their

learning; consequently, when designing a classroom activity, in order to promote the
acquisition of knowledge, it must be taken into account by the experience gained,
the following: Brainstorming, Questions, Reading.
The processing of information and learning at the discretion of authors such as
[4] are responsible for selecting, organizing and regulating cognitive and metacog-
nitive processes in order to deal with global and/or specific learning situations; are
under the control of the apprentice and generally deliberate, planned and consciously
employed; sequences of activities rather than isolated facts, so that the subject needs
to know both the component processes and the routine needed to organize those
processes, and their application is flexible, in the context of the characteristics and
variables that impact on specific teaching–learning situations.
Depending on the use of resources in the English language teaching and learning
process, the following approaches and methods can be referenced: Communica-
tive approach: aims to use authentic materials, i.e. written resources or developed
by English-speaking speakers of the language [5], Audiolingual method: Teaching
resources are associated with audio recordings. They are used to expose information
to students [6] and Grammar approach: in this context, the primary resources used
are dictionaries and grammar books [7].
There is a theoretical deficit concerning these issues, so the present research refers
to a study carried out in Chile in 2014 by a group of researchers from the University
of Concepción [7] where they recognize from an exploratory study in a sample of
English teachers, regarding the use of teaching resources stating that they mostly use
teaching resources to clarify ideas in the context of the activities already carried out
with the text as well as catching the students’ interest, so they are geared towards
developing teaching activities [8]. Teachers strengthen their students’ language skills
with activities that motivate their learning, so it can be said that teaching resources
are facilitating means in the learning–teaching process.
One of the teaching resources little used by English teachers is audiovisual mate-
rials, such as films as well as computers that are not widely used, nor educational
software being a reality as in Ecuador, those teachers do not yet use technological
resources in their classes since many of them claim they do not know how to use
a multimedia projector, interactive whiteboards as well as computers and software
management. The importance of promoting the use of technological resources in the
classroom is evident.
There are criteria of various authors such as [9] that analyze the difficulties in the
adoption of ICTs and that denote several factors that negatively affect integration
with new technologies:
• Technical aspects: Incompatibilities between various types of computers and oper-
ating systems, the bandwidth available for the Internet, the still insufficient speed
of the processors to perform some tasks, especially in the operation of interactive
platforms, video support, among others.
Articulation of Teaching and Technological Resources … 193

• Lack of training: The need for the theoretical and practical knowledge that all
people must learn, the need for skills and attitudes favorable to the use of these
new tools (ICT literacy).
• Security issues: Circumstances such as the risk of unauthorized access to Internet-
connected computers and possible theft of classified or confidential information.
• Cultural barriers: The dominant language, English, in which many references
and information come; tradition in the use of advanced technological instru-
ments (non-existent in many underdeveloped countries), coupled with inadequate
training held by teachers in these subjects.
The use of ICT in Education implies new educational paradigms, such as
student-centered education, self-learning and knowledge management, which has
also changed the historical role of teachers, because at the moment, technologies,
mostly become facilitators and moderators of the process [10].

3 Materials and Methods

Methods used include the following and their analysis from applicability in research:
• Analytical-synthetic: it allows the researcher to analyze the problem from its
causes and effects for further assessment.
• Statistical method: it was used for the analysis and interpretation of data in field
research conducted.
• Hypothetical-deductive: it allowed the design of the guide and the characteriza-
tion of the variables under study.
For working with the population and sample, the survey technique was used, which
was applied to 120 students of the promotion LV Air Force Technical School and 120
students from the 2018-2020 Promotion of the Soldier Training School “ESFORSE”
Vencedores del Cenepa, representing the student population, so it was not necessary
to determine a representative sample of the universe population, it is feasible to
work with the total, as well as in the case of teachers, worked with all of them, it
means twenty-four. The information obtained allowed the holistic interpretation and
analysis of the research variables and the problem itself.
Classrooms in both schools have an overhead projector and an audio system that
give students the possibility of practicing at the time they are learning the English lan-
guage. Consequently, teachers have attended several pieces of training and updating
sessions to improve their technological literacy.
Students in both schools have 2 h of English a day from Monday to Thursday; it
means 8 h a week and 120 h per term. Additionally, they have access to the internet
on their laptops so that they can practice on different websites according to their
needs and available time.
194 A. R. G. Alexandra et al.

4 Results and Discussion

In carrying out the practical part, it was determined that when developing a didactic
proposal, it is advisable to work according to the following operational structure:
• Clear goals that describe what is expected to be achieved in students once the
entire process is complete.
• A context that offers an alternative (in case of need for change), adapting the
specific contents to learn and approach the reality of the students.
• A final product in which the project is articulated.
• A set of tasks and activities designed to achieve the final product and that allow
the development of the different core competencies.
• Different moments to reflect (collaborative work, individual actions, strengths and
weaknesses, etc.)
• Design personally the sections on which they will then be assessed.
Strategies are essential tools to carry out the teaching work properly.
The researchers in Table 1 analyzed the application of the questionnaire to the
students, which facilitated the identification of the need that the project would help
to improve in the process of learning and developing English language skills in the
two schools of military training.
Table 2 details the results applied to teachers in order to determine the feasibil-
ity and implementation of the project for improving English language teaching in
military training schools.
The results obtained will highlight and divide some of them into non-strict cate-
gories. According to the characteristics of the students can be used, adapting them
to the personal, group and physical reality of them.

Table 1 Questionnaire applied to students

Items Results
Would you like to receive interactive classes (performing Yes 88%
activities on the Internet)? No 12%
Have you ever used technological resources in English Frequently 41%
classes? Never/rarely 41%
How do teachers develop abilities and skills in the classes Traditional methods 41.2%
you attend? Activities with audiovisuals 29.4%
Virtual platforms 17.6%
Do you think interactive classes in English from the use Always 41.2%
of technological resources would be more motivating and Sometimes 41.2%
interesting to you?
What activities have you developed with the use of ICT in Workshops 29.4%
the classroom? Evaluations 17.6%
Group activities 11.8%
Polls 11.8%
Source Field research
Articulation of Teaching and Technological Resources … 195

Table 2 Questionnaire applied to teachers

Items Results
Do you encourage the use of new technologies (ICTs) as a pedagogical • Always 60%
strategy to contribute to the teaching process of learning English? • Almost always 20%
What level of knowledge do you have about the contribution of new • High 40%
information technologies (ICTs) to English teaching? • Middle 60%
Would you like to achieve an articulation of traditional teaching • Totally agree 80%
resources with technological resources for the dynamization of the • Agree 20%
teaching–learning process of the English language?
Does the teaching process promote learning your subject through the • Always 40%
use of the computer for the development of English language skills? • Almost always 60%
Source Field research

In Table 3, the proposal of teaching and technological resources is made to comply

with the schedules and ensure the feedback which implies the following:
• Propose individual activities, but also collective activities.
• Be consistent and strict in decisions. Nobody can change someone’s mind
instantly.
• Promoting feedback with students, denoting that the project is shared.
• Establish a routine so that students can identify the moments and feel involved in
the process.
• Set a time to self-assess and provide them with enough tools to do so.
• Promote/help students express themselves correctly.
• Positively strengthen achievements. Students will learn more through positive
reinforcements than negative ones.
• Use new technologies for greater motivation, dynamism and interaction.

5 Conclusions

Teaching resources are supports, resources, materials and tools that help educators
in the teaching process to adequately convey knowledge and meaningful learning to
students to enable the continuous improvement of the process.
The use of interactive didactic and technological resources for teaching English
from teachers’ training and updating was encouraged and implemented, allowing
them to become familiar with new technologies.
The structuring of the solution proposal that will allow energizing the learning–
teaching process was determined from the selection of resources that enhance the
development of skills and methodology of use, for the development of activities
considering the skills to develop, objectives, benefits and proposed teaching and
technological resources.
196 A. R. G. Alexandra et al.

Table 3 Matrix of teaching and technological resources

Ability to develop Resource Technological Methodology of use
resources
Speaking Audio recordings of Audacity It is an auditory
Student’s ability to tales, stories, resource that serves
engage in thoughts to develop listening,
conversation using Roleplay and by using this resource
context identification dialogues will allow the student
with their respective Group work to have greater ease
vocabulary, correct Using interactive of understanding
pronunciation, programs like Skype, They help the
fluency, phonetic Messenger students practice the
sound recognition language in a way
and consistency that is safe for them
since they are
allowed to write
fictional situations
that they
subsequently have to
present in practice.
Small classroom
activities are
performed that
require students to
exchange ideas using
the language
Activities are
structured that
students can develop
the wording from the
messages
Listening Reports TTSReader Reflective critical
Videos and thoughts on different
interactive games. experiences and
Interactive text context analysis
CD-ROMs (Oxford, Using technology to
Burlington, teach English is
Cambridge) essential because it
will help students
creatively develop
skills
Interactive audios to
promote the ability to
pronounce and
fluidity.
(continued)
Articulation of Teaching and Technological Resources … 197

Table 3 (continued)
Ability to develop Resource Technological Methodology of use
resources
Hearing Audio Lyrics training Copying sentences
comprehension in Correct
English Joining sentences
Substitution
exercises
Understanding the
vocabulary and
context of audio.
Reading Articles and texts TTSReader Textual
understanding and
views, and
vocabulary
comprehension,
identification of
colloquial and
language rases
Writing Questionnaire Grammarly Understanding the
resolution context of a test to
Conceptual maps solve different types
Trials of evaluation
Write concepts to
support themselves
as vocabulary and
order to follow in
order to write
consistent text
It allows for
strengthening the
written skill where
different resources
and grammatical
times are articulated
by applying formal
vocabulary

The guide’s proposal articulates teaching and technological resources that

improved the teaching–learning process of the English language in students of the
Air Force Technical School’s LV promotion and the 2018–2020 promotion of the
Soldiers Training School ESFORSE “Vencedores del Cenepa,” where the validation
of the guide was based on its implementation in the Subject of English, where it
was possible to find the approaches, methods, listening comprehension and writing
activities.
A guide to the articulation of teaching and technological resources was developed
to streamline the English language teaching–learning process in students of the LV
promotion of the Air Force Technical School.
198 A. R. G. Alexandra et al.

References

1. Lavigne, G.: CPU-e CPU-e. Rev. Invest. Educ. 5–19 (2018). ISSN 1870-5308
2. Bartolomei, M., Victoria; Caram, C., Los Santos, G., Negreira, E., Pusineri: No Title. Palermo
- Argentina (2015). ISSN 1669-2306
3. Alrashidi, O., Phan, H.: Education context and English teaching and learning in the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia: an overview. Eng. Lang. Teach. 8(5), 33–44 (2015)
4. Gajardo G., Grandón, F., Gfell, C., Rica, U.D.C.: A comparative Fernando García Gajardo
Gonzalo Fonseca Grandón Lisbeth Concha Gfell Revista indizada en Redalyc, Sciel. Redalyc
Scielo Rev 15, 1–26 (2015). E-ISSN 1409-4703
5. Rodgers, T., Theodore, S., Jo, M., John, S.: Approaches and Methods in Language Teaching.
Cambridge University Press, UK (1999)
6. Yule, G.: b50165c3003b33b20e20b40f3c78c60c7691ac3e @ acquiringl2.wordpress.com
(2012)
7. Díaz, P., Claudio, Aguilera, K., Fuentes, R., Pérez: Los Recursos Didácticos en la Enseñanza
y Aprendizaje Del Inglés. 13(2), 8–19 (2013)
8. Hall, G.: Exploring English, 2nd edn. Routledge, New York (2018)
9. Alcalde Mato, N.: Principales Métodos de Enseñanza de Lenguas Extranjeras en Alemania.
Rev. Lingüística y Lenguas Apl. 0(6) (2011)
10. Kukulska-Hulme, A., Norris, L., Donohue, J.: Mobile Pedagogy for a Guide for Teachers, vol.
14, no. 7. London (2015)
11. Appel C., Borges, F.: Task design for L2 oral practice in audioblogs. Obtenido de Task design
for L2 oral practice in audioblogs. http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED544443.pdf (2011)
Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost
Automation for Robot Control

Gustavo Caiza , Dalia Alvarez-Montenegro , Juan Escobar-Naranjo ,

Carlos A. Garcia , and Marcelo V. Garcia

Abstract Recently, open source-based robotics applications have been developed,

where precision in movement control is considered the main objective when fol-
lowing a trajectory based on direct or reverse kinematics; however, due to different
disturbances, small errors can interfere with the execution of orders sent for the indi-
vidual control of the manipulator’s joints. To improve the precision in the movement
of the final effector within the Cartesian space, this research proposes a method based
on gravitational compensation, canceling the dynamic analysis of the robotic arm.
The control algorithm is a ROS-based system that integrates concepts of low-cost
automation; this algorithm resides inside a low-cost controller as Raspberry Pi that
is used for rapid exchange of information between the Kuka youBot robotic arm
and a graphical interface that allows an interaction between the user and the system
components.

G. Caiza
Universidad Politecnica Salesiana (UPS), 170146 Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Alvarez-Montenegro · J. Escobar-Naranjo · C. A. Garcia · M. V. Garcia (B)
Universidad Tecnica de Ambato (UTA), 180103 Ambato, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
D. Alvarez-Montenegro
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Escobar-Naranjo
e-mail: [email protected]
C. A. Garcia
e-mail: [email protected]
M. V. Garcia
University of Basque Country (UPV/EHU), 48013 Bilbao, Spain

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 199
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_18
200 G. Caiza et al.

Keywords Gravity compensation · Arm manipulators · PD control · Position

control · Low-cost automation · Kuka youBot

1 Introduction

Students, researchers, people in general who are immersed in the world of engineer-
ing, robotics, industrial automation, process control and systems integration, etc., find
an enormous possibility of education and research in the realization of robust control
systems through the use of low-cost devices, which allow to reach an unimaginable
learning opportunity by creating a reference platform for research and training in the
field of mobile manipulation, which allows developers, researchers and students to
write their own control and application software [9].
Robot Operating System (ROS) is a framework within the cyber-physical systems
for GNU/Linux platforms, which simplify the communication and monitoring of the
robot control status. This software allows several devices to be incorporated into a
distributed network, where a master node allows the rest of the nodes to communicate
through TCP/IP; in addition, these elements that are part of the CPS architecture
which can be secured through the implementation of a VPN server, providing several
advantages to ROS nodes, such as modularity of the architecture, allowing adaptation
to other systems. Redundancy is possible due to the ROS publication/subscriber
scheme, in addition to allowing cross-platform access and remote control through
another element connected to the same network [5].
For the control of the joints of the robotic arm, two methods have been defined, a
change from the current position to the next or a variation in the speed of a joint until
reaching the desired position. For both, extra calibration is required considering
gravitational compensation, which will allow the monitoring of the final effector
trajectories in an appropriate manner reducing the error in position and speed [10].
The aim of this research is to present the design of an advanced control system
through gravitational compensation using a low-cost single-board computer (SBC)
hardware. The proposed system has a graphic interface that uses the application
programming interface (API) of the Kuka youBot robotic arm to send the positions
commands. This software includes methods and classes for the development of grav-
itational compensation control; ROS commands enables control over open-source
drivers, leading to interoperability between independent systems.
This article is structured as follows: Sect. 2 provides brief concepts which will
allow a better understanding of the following sections. Section 3 presents the case
study used for the research method. In Sect. 4, the design and implementation of a
gravity compensation for robot control based on low-cost automation are showed.
The discussion of results is presented in Sect. 5. Finally, the conclusions and future
work are presented in Sect. 6.
Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost Automation for Robot Control 201

2 State of Technology

2.1 Kuka youBot™

It is defined as a mobile manipulator developed primarily for education and research,

consisting of two parts that can be used independently, a five degree freedom robotic
arm with two fingers as a clamp and an omnidirectional base. The arm’s API is
compatible with ROS and can be communicated through Ethernet and EtherCAT,
and at its base, it has a mini ITX PC integrated with its CPU [11].
The robotic arm consists of five rotary joints and a two-finger clamps in parallel
as a final tool; it reaches a height of 655 mm and is designed to carry a load of up
to 0.5 kg, and its rotary joints can be accessed through EtherCAT (Fig. 1). Joints
two, three and four have their rotational movement parallel to one axis, while joints
one and five rotate in parallel to another. Whenever the arm points up, the maximum
rotation speed of each joint is 90◦ /s while the final effector can be opened 11.5 mm
for each finger.
The communication protocol defined for the Kuka YouBot uses the standard Eth-
ernet network of the Simple Open Source EtherCAT Master (SOEM) type, which
allows the implementation of an open-source controller for the master [4].
The youBot driver has a library with classes defined in C++ that allow the control
and monitoring of actuators and sensors; it provides the functionalities to estab-
lish Cartesian position and velocity values; the API provided by the driver contains
subsystems for handling the joints where there are classes for the arm and base [3].

2.2 Gravity Compensation

The field of stability control of manipulative robots has become more important
since its proposal in 1981, as this only applied to robotic arms that only have rotating

Fig. 1 Kuka youBot arm

202 G. Caiza et al.

joints; for mathematical modeling, equations are used that are nonlinear; however,
Lyapunov’s theory is often used as an auxiliary means [8].
The development of the proportional derivative (PD) control with gravity compen-
sation for manipulators is based on the assumption that the dynamics of the actuators
do not exist, so it should be considered that the control signal is not the torque but
the voltage that is applied to the motors, where the torque comes as the result of the
electrical interaction of the actuators [1].
Without considering external disturbances, the mathematical model of a rigid
robot that has a number n of links is described (see Eq. 1):

M(q)q̈ + C(q, q̇)q̇ + G(q) + F(q̇) = τ (1)

where M(q)q̈ represents matrix of symmetric manipulator inertia, C(q, q̇)q̇ is matrix
of centripetal and Coriolis forces, G(q) is gravitational pairs vector, F(q̇) is friction
pairs and τ represents input torque vector.
The derivative proportional control algorithm with gravity compensation is
defined by the correction of the joint positioning error (see Eq. 2):

q − kd (
τ = kp q˙ ) + G(q) (2)

where kp q˙ ) is the deriva-

q is the proportional gain multiplied by the position error, kd (
tive gain multiplied by the speed of movement and G(q) represents the gravitational
torque compensation.
Gravitational compensation is defined as a term proportional to the position error,
to which a damping consisting of the speed of movement is added; this part of the
control consists of a mechanical retention that absorbs the impulses resulting from the
response, suppressing peaks and oscillations; for the stationary stage, it is estimated
that the position of the effector or terminal tool is constant, assuming a value of zero
at the speed of movement [2].
According to what is expressed in [6], the control loop with gravity compensation
for robots is established as an equation that needs a constant measurement of position
and speed, Eq. 2, determines the dynamic model the dynamic model for PD control
with gravitational compensation for manipulative robots.
Additionally, Fig. 2 shows the block diagram equivalent to the PD control law with
gravity compensation, where K p and K d are defined as positive symmetric matrices;
however, this type of optimization requires a partial knowledge of the manipulator,
considering values of length, mass and rotational parameters of the components of
the robotic arm.

2.3 ROS

It is an open-source workspace that facilitates and speeds up the construction of

robotic applications such as message delivery, package management and hardware
Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost Automation for Robot Control 203

Fig. 2 Dynamic model for PD control with gravitational compensation

Fig. 3 Component system

of a ROS model

device drivers. Originally designed in order to simplify distributed systems, as seen in

Fig. 3. The building blocks of a ROS application are defined as nodes, where each is
an entity that can communicate with other nodes that are part of an operating system
process. The nodes supported by ROS are mainly written in C++ and Python. Nodes
in a ROS environment can communicate in three ways, such as: posting messages
to a topic, listening to messages posted on a topic and calling a service provided by
another node [7].
Initially for the management of the communication system, a master ROS must be
initiated, which is responsible for allowing the nodes to meet and exchange messages;
the use of topics is defined as logical connection paths, where the nodes can publish
topics or subscribe to them.

3 Case Study

The positioning of objects is one of the most common tasks performed by robotic
arms. This type of procedure requires a control that allows the rotary joints to be
manipulated according to the need of the process.
The present work shows the design of a control system for the robotic arm of the
Kuka youBot manipulator. This control system is developed using the Raspberry Pi
204 G. Caiza et al.

Fig. 4 Case study

architecture

3B embedded card. The case study is the execution of a “pick and place” positioning
task and the monitoring through the interface chart which has the option to save and
reproduce positions, as seen in Fig. 4. The architecture is implemented through the
integration of ROS and the youBot driver, allowing the development of libraries,
topics, and nodes, on which the communication data and messages will be sent and
received through the Ethernet protocol.
The graphical interface allows control by sending position and velocity values
through the robotic arm driver, for which classes and methods that allow data to be
sent to the rotary joints are developed in C++, in addition the manipulation through
gravitational compensation control, whereby the controlled delivery of current to the
joint motors ensures that there is no damage to the manipulator joints.
This research work uses a low-cost SBC-type embedded cards because they are
considered as controllers or potential solutions to data processing and monitoring
problems. The SBC cards are being compatible with open-source software.
The proposed control is designed with gravitational compensation, which consists
of the interpolation of the positions sending by control graphic interface, so that
the current values sent to the motors are regulated proportionally and derivatively;
in order to make the teaching of positions more versatile, this control method is
included; this allows an operator handle the robotic arm according to your need
manually.
Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost Automation for Robot Control 205

4 Proposed Implementation

4.1 Gravitational Compensation

A new ROS node is established that will be mainly responsible for the calibration
and control of the robotic arm; for this, the physical parameters required by the
gravitational compensation module such as friction, mass, gravity, etc., have been
previously configured.
When the gravitational compensation module is started, the above-mentioned
parameters are loaded; simultaneously and automatically, the initialized robotic arm
calibration is performed; each rotary joint is defined as an EtherCAT slave, and for
each of them, iterations are performed to find the most exact value in which the torque
made by the motors is reduced; this is because the torque changes are proportional
to those of current.
Mainly based on the use of the NLopt library, developed for nonlinear optimization
systems; this allows the evaluation of several algorithms for long calibration routines,
allowing several parameters to be tested in a short period of time.
When the module is activated from the GUI, the current values delivered to the
joints are the minimum so that it can maintain the links statically; therefore, when
applying an external force in order to manipulate the robotic arm, it does not present
opposition, for which the operation of the control is verified by gravitational com-
pensation.

4.2 Graphical User Interface

The GUI developed for the interactive control of the robotic arm is presented as a ROS
node, which exchanges data with the controller node, and this in turn is responsible
for the control of the hardware device through a third node implemented with the
robot in URDF format; the interface is developed under C++ and consists of discrete
buttons for the execution of movements through the sending of positional values or
by velocity variation, as well as the activation of the control module for gravitational
compensation; it also has the save function and load of states, so that the user can
manually perform the positioning tasks raised in the investigation.
Within the GUI, in addition to the palette to load and save arm states, as shown in
Fig. 5, a 2D graphic of the robotic arm can be seen, where two stages of this one are
presented; a current one and one that will understand the objective to which the arm
is to be moved; for the understanding of the possible movement made in the missing
plane, three views are included that correspond to the upper detail of the first joint,
the joint number 5 for the rotation of the gripper and a front of the latter to correctly
visualize the opening or closing of the same. In the lower part, the current rotational
parameters of the 5 joints are observed plus the longitudinal variation of the gripper,
in order to maintain the positional values within the allowed ranges of each motor.
206 G. Caiza et al.

Fig. 5 Graphical user interface

4.3 ROS System

For the implementation of the initially proposed case study, a ROS system with three
nodes is developed as seen in Fig. 6, which will allow control over the robotic arm of
the Kuka youBot manipulator through an advanced method based on gravitational
compensation; if the three nodes are going to be subscribers and publishers of differ-
ent topics, this in order that the messages sent from the developed GUI arrive through
the controller node to the physical rotary meetings; within the GUI, the actions to
be executed by each component are detailed through files in C++ of the same; it is
described through the youBot API how the message will be published and read by
the controller node, which is the core of the complete system, this will initialize the
ROS master.
In addition to executing the robotic arm driver with its respective configurations
and mainly the gravitational compensation module with its certain calibration param-
eters, the node transmits the messages sent from the GUI through the robot in Unified
Robot Description Format (URDF) format, which allows in a third node access to the
hardware device through the EtherCAT protocol; this last node describes the geom-
etry of several physical elements, with which the driver ensures that the initialized
robot is the correct one for the API used, translating the messages sent to the motors
as positional, velocity or torque values in current variations or specific limits.
Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost Automation for Robot Control 207

Fig. 6 ROS node

architecture

The ROS Rqt Graph tool is used to get a real-time diagram of the iteration between
nodes, topics and messages, where you can observe the flow of information within
the developed ROS system; the type of messages used to provide control over rotary
joints of the robotic arm allows to control the motors through the youBot driver; in
Fig. 7, the graph obtained is presented, which is equivalent to the system proposed
as a case study.
The type of messages sent from the controller node to the node of the URDF
robot is sensor_msgs /JointState; these are used to transmit values in float64 format
within vectors; for this, a vector of 5 positions is defined, where each of them will
be occupied by each of the rotary joints of the robotic arm; this corresponds to the 5
degrees of freedom and is established by the youBot API; these spaces will be filled
when a position, velocity or effort type value is sent to the array, and when a position
has not been filled, a value of zero is assumed, and this does not affect the execution
of the order sent to the robotic arm.
208 G. Caiza et al.

Fig. 7 Rqt graph

5 Discussion of Results

To check the operation of the developed controller node, all measured values greater
than 0.01 s are considered as a delay; the measurements are defined in the executable
file of the mentioned node, where the difference between the established frequency
and the operation of the robotic arm is calculated, and the delay in the operation of
the controller as a function of time is obtained from the inverse value of the result.
The case study presents a positioning task called “pick and place,” for which the
gravitational compensation module was used for the manual control of the robotic arm
toward the desired positions; in addition, the saving and reproduction of positions was
used through the GUI to check the operation of the same, and finally, two positions
were obtained for the development of the task.
As can be seen in Fig. 8, which is a graphical representation of the delays obtained
as a function of time, the controller does not have large delays in the execution of
the gravitational compensation module, since these remain close to the established
limit of 0.01 s, except for extreme cases where values suffer relatively high peaks.

Fig. 8 Delays get in the case study

Gravity Compensation Using Low-Cost Automation for Robot Control 209

6 Conclusions and Future Work

This work shows the design of a controller node within a system developed through
the ROS API and the youBot driver, mounted on a low-cost SBC card; the proposed
architecture as a case study raises interoperability between hardware platforms based
on open source; the elaborated application is considered as a metapackage which
contains the packages and files necessary for the control of the robotic arm of the
Kuka youBot manipulator through EtherCAT. The calibration and control tasks of
the rotary joints of the robotic arm for control through the gravitational compensation
module are performed in the background, and automatically once the controller node
has been initialized, when this process ends, it can be executed via the GUI developed,
which allows a more intuitive control for the user, since it allows to observe the current
position and the objective to which you want to move, in addition to making possible
the selection of the type of control, either by position, velocity or by the gravitational
compensation module.
The controller works constantly since the ROS master and the entire system was
executed; for a correct operation, a value of 200 Hz must be established for the fre-
quency of the robotic arm, which varies for each joint, thanks to the actual operating
parameters; this creates an existing delay in the control loop, which is shown in the
terminal and allows observing as a function of time how much the tracking of the
developed pick and place process is delayed, finally obtaining low values that vary
according to the accuracy in the positions that must be reached by the robotic arm.
Future lines of research should focus on the development of different control
methods based on the prediction of trajectories through direct or reverse kinemat-
ics, on the use of other types of software or protocols that allow greater limits on
the interoperability of the hardware, through the application of libraries for image
processing and the use of different sensors for object detection.

Acknowledgements This work was financed by Universidad Tecnica de Ambato (UTA) and their
Research and Development Department (DIDE) under project CONIN-P-256-2019

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Situated Learning Through the Use
of Cooperative Techniques and Academic
Controversy Applied to the Provision
of Cryptographic Confidentiality

Lucy Delgado Barra , Norka Bedregal Alpaca ,

Karim Guevara Puente de la Vega , and Olha Sharhorodska

Abstract Cybersecurity teaching must be oriented to show the student the

dichotomy that professional performance demands, to learn how to provide con-
fidentiality, integrity, and authenticity services and at the same time to develop the
ability to find weaknesses in any system it evaluates. Because today´s students have
different ways of learning, teaching these topics becomes a new challenge for teach-
ers. This need has generated that the improvement of the teaching–learning processes
becomes a continuous search in the engineering area. In this sense, this article shows
a proposal of strategies where the students of the course of Critical Security Sys-
tems can clearly identify the context and the relation of what they learn with reality,
reason why the situated learning helps to consolidate the knowledge, to perceive the
utility and validity of what is learned. Using techniques of cooperative techniques
and academic controversy, the efficiency is exercised in the design of symmetrical
cryptographic systems of public key destined to provide the service of confidentiality
of the information.

Keywords Situated learning · Cooperative techniques · Academic controversy

techniques · Symmetrical cryptographic systems · Confidentiality

L. D. Barra (B) · N. B. Alpaca · K. G. P. de la Vega · O. Sharhorodska

National University of San Agustin from Arequipa, Arequipa, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
N. B. Alpaca
e-mail: [email protected]
K. G. P. de la Vega
e-mail: [email protected]
O. Sharhorodska
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 211
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_19
212 L. D. Barra et al.

1 Introduction

In cybersecurity, training is strongly linked to knowledge of discrete mathematics,

computational algorithms, and data communication networks. This makes traditional
teaching obsolete. Additionally, today’s students are typically digital natives [1] and
therefore require learning models that are adapted and responsive to their needs.
The experience carried out in the teaching, of course, Critical Safety shows that
the traditional professorship tends to fail, the rates of disapproval three years ago
were increasing (approximately 30%). This context led us to assume other learning
models and develop mixed techniques, which guide the student to the perception of
the usefulness of what they learn. Case studies, forensic study, group work, role-
playing, dialectics, the use of virtual laboratories, the integration of Information and
Communication Technologies (ICTs), among others, have been fundamental tools
for promoting the competencies associated with self-learning, group work, research
capacity, and the sufficiency of knowledge itself. In this last cycle, the disapproval
index has been reduced to less than 10%, as a result of having applied the didactic
proposal described and shared in this work.
In university education, it is not possible to separate knowledge from reality or
context outside its walls, when this happens according to [2] the student does not
understand what he is doing or the purpose of what he is doing. In [3], the validity
and usefulness of learning located in engineering education are presented, however,
when it comes to cybersecurity the whole scenario always has two parts: the first,
being the ability to provide the security, confidentiality, and authenticity services;
and the second, the ability to search and identify vulnerabilities in the implemented
services. The interest of this article is to show how the subject of Critical Security
Systems in the professional school of Systems Engineering at the National University
of San Agustin from Arequipa has been applied, the situated learning that leads the
student to understand what he or she is learning for, using collaborative techniques to
efficiently integrate workgroups and how these groups, through academic controversy
techniques can address both sides in the implementation of cybersecurity services,
i.e., providing the service itself and looking for weaknesses in the provision of the
service by a third party.

2 Models and Learning Techniques

2.1 Situated Learning Model

According to [4], situated learning is understood as a way of creating meaning from

everyday life activities. There are many ways to conceive of situated learning. How-
ever, it can be argued that the situated aspect of learning refers to a basic principle that
conceives of education not as a product of individual cognitive processes, but rather
of the way in which such processes are shaped in activity by a set of elements that
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 213

come into play, such as perceptions, meanings, intentions, interactions, resources,

and choices, these elements being considered to be the result of the dynamic relation
that is established between the learner and the socio-cultural environment in which
he or she carries out his or her action or activity.
Niemeyer [5] focuses on the potential of situated learning in the context of socio–
labor integration and affirms that situated learning means that the acquisition of skills
as a result of learning is not so much the result of the consolidation of greater or lesser
knowledge and capacity, but of the possibility of active participation in collective
activities so that the social dimension of learning is placed ahead of the individual
dimension. With the help of the concept of learning situated in practice-centered
learning communities, a new perspective of students as subjects with development
potential and the right to participation is defined, so that the view of young people
changes from being failures to subjects of learning because the application of learn-
ing situated in the teaching-learning process emphasizes development potential and
learning possibilities and not the deficiencies that students may have.
In [6], it is mentioned that in the face of a more and more limited labor market,
the increase of training expectations by employers and the high demands of qualified
engineers, the application of the paradigm of cognition located in the formation of
engineering competences is outlined as a necessary, fertile and conducive to effective
learning. Situated learning with engineering skills training is an educational alter-
native that enhances the application of knowledge and promotes self-regulation and
empowerment as dynamic strategies of the teaching–learning process.
Ortega [7] states that the key to the situation is that the teacher can create the
situation in the educational context itself—or outside it—where the student, while
involving himself or herself with his or her peers, also grows and learns while sharing
his or her knowledge and skills in his or her own group; while the students negotiate
meanings, exchange information, talk about the problem to be solved, discuss and
generate solution strategies, and that is when they are really involved in activities
that originate deep and significant learning.
Mattar in his article [8] points out that knowledge, learning, and cognition are
social constructions expressed in actions of people who interact in communities. The
general characteristic of situated learning is the positioning of individual cognition
in a broader physical and social context of culturally constructed interactions, tools,
and meanings since the construction of meaning is a social activity.

2.2 Cooperative Learning Techniques

The idea of cooperative learning emerged in the sixteenth century. According to [9],
cooperative learning occurs when tasks are organized in which cooperation is the
condition to carry them out, these are learning tasks that cannot be carried out if it
is not by collaborating among peers, you cannot be successful if the peers are not
successful, the success is not individual but that of all the members of the group.
214 L. D. Barra et al.

Gillies [10] mentions that there are key components that influence the success of
cooperative learning:
1. Structuring positive interdependence within the learning situation so that all
group members understand that they are linked to each other in such a way
that one cannot achieve success unless everyone does, and they must learn to
synchronize their efforts to ensure that this happens.
2. Promotional interaction or the willingness of group members to encourage and
facilitate the efforts of others to complete their tasks in order for the group to
achieve its objective. In doing so, students develop an awareness of what others
do not understand and the need to provide explanations or assistance that can be
easily understood.
3. The third key component is individual responsibility or one’s responsibility to
ensure that he or she completes his or her part of the work while ensuring that
others complete theirs. In fact, the more students perceive that they are linked,
the more they feel personally responsible for contributing to the collective effort
of the group.
4. Group members must possess interpersonal skills that enable them to handle
disagreements with others. These skills must be explicitly negotiated or taught.
5. Group processing involves students reflecting on their progress and work
relationships.
In the paper, presented by Rodríguez et al. [11] propose the implementation of the
methodological strategy of integration of cooperative learning to the study of cases
in the Industrial Engineering career. Through this, they make possible the design of
several case studies generated by the students in their insertion in the labor reality and
the cohesion of the members of the group, which contributes to activate the process
of formation of the professional by means of the participation of the same ones in
the individual and team solution of the problems that appear in the social practice.

2.3 Academic Controversy Techniques

The academic controversy is a technique of cooperative learning, proposed by the

Johnson brothers, which advocates the development of the capacity to argue, debate,
and reach consensus. Controversy exists when the ideas, information, conclusions,
theories and opinions of one person are incompatible with those of another and both
seek to reach an agreement.
The occurrence of disputes is, according to [12], frequent among peers when they
carry out regular activities. Controversy properly managed can mobilize students’;
cognitive restructuring, favoring their intellectual and personal progress. Academic
controversy is the use of intellectual conflict in instruction to increase the quality of
problem-solving, decision making, reasoning, interpersonal relationships, psycho-
logical health, and well-being. Students in the academic controversy must, according
to [13] research and prepare a position, present and advocate their position, debate
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 215

opposing positions and refute attacks on their own position, reverse perspectives and
create a synthesis on which they agree.

3 Computer Security, Cryptosystems, and Cryptanalysis

3.1 Computer Security

According to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), it is the

set of elements that implement the objectives (services) of information integrity,
availability, and confidentiality in an automated manner [14]. Confidentiality
ensures authorized access to information, integrity ensures authorized creation, and
modification, and availability ensures appropriate accessibility to information.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recommendation X. 800 in
[15] defines confidentiality as the ownership of information that is not available
or disclosed to unauthorized persons, entities or processes. In order to provide the
service automatically, algorithmic implementations of a cryptographic nature are
included in the security systems. As indicated, [16] this science seeks to transform
messages into clear to encrypted messages, with the possibility of implementing the
reverse transformation, requiring both transformations to know one or more keys. At
the same time, cryptanalysis is the science that tries to obtain from a set of encrypted
messages, a part or all of the message in clear and/or to find the key with which those
messages were encrypted.

3.2 Cryptosystems

Cryptosystems are defined in [17] as the set of hardware and software elements
intended to provide security services. In general, there are two types of cryptosystems,
those of public key where the secret to encrypt and decrypt is the same, so it must be
previously shared by a secure channel and the second type corresponds to those that
use a pair of complementary keys, one used in the encryption and the other in the
decryption and although they are different there is a functional relationship between
them.
1. Public Key Cryptosystems. Also called symmetric, [17] defines the structure
shown in Fig. 1, which identifies the following data:
(a) M i is the clear message to be protected,
(b) K key or secret shared between sender and receiver,
(c) C i encrypted text to be transmitted.
Also, there are two algorithms: (1) E is the encryption algorithm, which encrypts
the clear text using the secret key to generate the ciphertext and, (2) D is the decryption
216 L. D. Barra et al.

Fig. 1 Cryptosystem:
cryptography and
cryptanalysis (Source LNCS
5412, p. 323)

algorithm, which restores the clear text from the ciphertext using the secret key, it is
necessary to indicate that D is the functional reversal of E. Functionally it is described
as follows:

Ci = E(Mi , K ) (1)

Mi = D(Ci , K ) (2)

As for cryptanalysis, its functionality (C a ) depends on the type of analysis to be

done to break the security of the system, taking one or some encrypted text C i must
be able to discover part/all of the text in clear or part/all of the secret key with which
it was encrypted [17].
2. Symmetric encryption algorithms. The symmetric encryption algorithms can be
further divided into stream and block ciphers as shown in Figs. 2 and 3 [17].
Within the stream encryption algorithms, we have the Vernam, One Time Pad,
WEP (Wired Equivalent Privacy), and RC4 (Rivest Cipher) algorithms. While within
the block ciphers include DES, AES, 3-DES, IDEA, BLOWFISH, SAFER, among
others. Detailed knowledge of these will be essential for the success of the proposal.

Fig. 2 Stream symmetric

encryptor
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 217

Fig. 3 Symmetric cipher per

block

3.3 Cryptanalysis

This science, as defined [18], is concerned with the identification and analysis of
security weaknesses. Its implementation is called an attack and is given directly on
the communication channel over which encrypted texts are transmitted. Depending
on the available ciphertext the attacks and security breaches can be:
1. Brute force attack.
2. Attack only on the encrypted text.
3. Attack if some clear text is available.
4. Attack if clear text is chosen (dictionary).
5. Attack if encrypted text is chosen according to known clear text.
Based on the available information, statistical analysis algorithms are applied,
such as coincidence or frequency index, entropy, pattern detection, among others, in
order to obtain part or all of a clear text, part or all of the key. Cryptanalysis has the
following sub-areas:
1. differential cryptanalysis
2. linear cryptanalysis
3. algebraic cryptanalysis
4. Guess-and-Determine among others.

4 The Didactic Proposal

The didactic proposal is centered on an experience linked to providing the service of

information protection, making it unintelligible, at the moment of being transmitted,
218 L. D. Barra et al.

Fig. 4 Scope of application of the didactic proposal

using a data communication system, for that it must be converted to a new form
of representation through a cryptographic algorithm, that is to say, providing the
service of confidentiality, whose entrance is not only the information to protect but
also a keyword protected and shared by sender and receiver (symmetrical system),
by nature the algorithm must be reversible. On the other side, the weaknesses of the
algorithms used in the implementation must be found and exploited, evaluating the
computational effort in both directions as seen in Fig. 4. To achieve this objective in
students, the didactic proposal is based on the application of cooperative learning and
academic controversy in such a way that what students learn is much more significant
in relation to the previous cycle for this topic which is considered very difficult due
to the technical knowledge that is required to be applied.
The following sections describe the didactic proposal.

4.1 Learning Objectives

It includes all those aspects that the student is required to achieve at the end of the
work sessions. These objectives are socialized with the students beforehand. In the
case of the topic in question provision of cryptographic confidentiality, the objectives
were:
• Performing a search for relevant information
• Implement the confidentiality service in a symmetric or public key cryptosystem
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 219

• Identify and exploit the weaknesses of public key cryptosystems, based on the
application of cryptanalysis techniques
• Documenting the group work process
• Review relevant case studies, identifying ethical, economic, technical and legal
considerations.

4.2 Methodology

Figure 5 shows the general methodology of the proposal for each learning unit.

Step 1: Definition of the Context Here the teacher defines the initial conditions
of the problem to be solved, specifying the external environment and the condi-
tions associated with common situations in the area of knowledge found in profes-
sional practice. From this first step, the way to implement the academic controversy
should be sought through the assignment of roles. In the issue considered around the
provision of confidentiality using symmetrical cryptosystems this includes:
1. Definition of working groups. Using role-playing to enhance individual strengths
when integrating into heterogeneous groups
2. Assignment of the cryptosystem to be built. To provide the confidentiality service
(encryption algorithm, key length, working mode, clear data to be encrypted). All
good practice requirements should be considered (usability, consistency, etc.).

Fig. 5 Proposed
methodology
220 L. D. Barra et al.

Fig. 6 Initial definition of cryptosystem requirements

This means giving a group (in Fig. 4 group A) the document Cryptosystem Speci-
fications to be implemented, which is equivalent to the definition of requirements
in any computer-related project. A typical document is shown in Fig. 6.
3. Assigning the cryptosystem to cryptanalyze. To identify and exploit its weak-
nesses through attacks aimed at breaking confidentiality (decryption algorithm,
working mode, encrypted data that has been generated by the system). This means
giving a group (in Fig. 4 group B) the Cryptanalysis Specifications document,
i.e., the definition of requirements. A typical document is shown in Fig. 7.
Step 2: Cooperative Knowledge Building At this stage, students will carry out
an individual search for information, analysis, and selection of material based on
a group assessment. It is particularly important to influence the use of academic
search engines. The teacher should implement the monitoring through a blog about
the virtual classroom, or a blog using appropriate virtual tools, having additional
communication elements such as email and instant messaging. In the issue consid-
ered around the provision of confidentiality using symmetrical cryptosystems this
includes:
1. Review of the algorithm to be implemented (encryption) or the algorithm to
be attacked (decryption). It must be understood that both functions have been
assigned to antagonistic groups, it is of vital importance that the teacher monitors
that relevant sources are consulted.
2. Review of development tools. For the provision of confidentiality and for the
implementation of the attack, in this case, it is important that the teacher evaluates
the relevance of the tools.
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 221

Fig. 7 Initial definition of cryptanalysis

3. Assessment of computational complexity of both algorithms (the one used for

the provision of confidentiality and for the implementation of the attack or
cryptanalysis).
4. Evaluation of possible weaknesses of both algorithms.

An example of how these activities are monitored is shown in Fig. 8, the summary
of the blog records should be moved to the project log and delivered as part of the
final project report.

Step 3: Implementation of the Solution Students must show the product obtained
by adding the tests and results that demonstrate that the conditions of step 1 have
been met. The teacher will validate the solution and the results. In the issue consid-
ered around the provision of confidentiality using symmetrical cryptosystems this
includes:
1. Symmetrical encryption system. Associated with the initial design conditions.
2. Set of encrypted texts produced. Which correspond to the clear texts delivered in
step 1.
3. Symmetric cryptanalysis system. Associated with the initial design conditions.
4. Results obtained. From the cryptanalysis of the encrypted text received in step
1.
222 L. D. Barra et al.

Fig. 8 Virtual classroom blog for activity log

Step 4: Verification for Academic Controversy The result obtained in the previous
step will be given to another group of students for testing and validation. In the subject
considered around the provision of confidentiality using symmetric cryptosystems,
this means that the ciphertext or results generated by each symmetric system will be
delivered to the respective cryptanalysis systems which will have to demonstrate the
capacity to exploit their weaknesses and deliver part or all of the clear text, part or
all of the secret key.

Step 5: Review of Results and Evaluation The teacher will integrate in a general
review the knowledge acquired, consolidating the lessons learned and the association
with the real situations of professional practice. It is also possible to use the co-
evaluation within the working groups, whose rubric is shown in Fig. 9. The proposed
topic will also involve reviewing the safety information of these cryptosystems in
the network. Figure 10 shows the rubric designed for the individual evaluation of
the student by the teacher, which is aligned to a competence evaluation and to the
student’s results that must be evidenced for our accreditation processes.

5 Results

After this experience where the situated learning was applied in relation to learning
of the topic cryptographic confidentiality provision as part of the Critical Security
Systems course, which was based on the use of cooperative techniques and the
academic controversy among the students of this course; a survey was applied to
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 223

Fig. 9 Co-evaluation heading

evidence if there was a change in the students’; perception in relation to this topic
after the experience.
The survey had two parts, the first in relation to the topic developed (the first
five questions); and the second in relation to the use of collaborative techniques
and academic controversy in the development of the working sessions (the last 5
questions).
This survey was applied to 75 students, whose responses are shown in Figs. 11
and 12, respectively.
Q1. Do you think you understand when and how to use what you have learned in
cyber security?
224 L. D. Barra et al.

Fig. 10 Teacher evaluation rubric

70
60 59
60 55 57
54
50

40

30

20 14 16
13
10 10 8
10 5 5 4
1 3 1
0 0 0
0
Q1. Q2. Q3. Q4. Q5.

Completely agree Agreement Disagreement Strongly disagree

Fig. 11 Results of the survey of questions relating to the topic of learning

Q2. Through experience, you were able to develop dichotomous thinking, for it
was not enough to provide the service, but you must include considerations
of robustness and consistency?
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 225

70 65 64
60
60 55 57

50

40

30

20
10 9 8 7 10 8 8
10 7
1 2 0 3 1
0 0
0
Q6. Q7. Q8. Q9. Q10.

Completely agree Agreement Disagreement Strongly disagree

Fig. 12 Results of the survey of questions relating to the use of collaborative techniques and
academic controversy

Q3. The experience allowed you to demonstrate your ability to solve engineering
problems efficiently, under initial design conditions?
Q4. It also allowed him to develop the capacity of abstraction inherent in
algorithms and the evaluation of computational complexity?
Q5. The approach of relevant sources of information that facilitates their capacity
for self-learning.
Q6. The use of collaborative techniques in the learning process, facilitated their
integration into the working group and the assumption of a concrete role in
it?
Q7. The way in which the collaborative techniques were applied in the learning
of this specific topic allowed and facilitated the obtaining of those technical
knowledge that he considered difficult?
Q8. The use of academic controversy made it easy for you to find flaws in the
solution of the problem and improve it for final delivery?
Q9. The use of adaptive learning applied in experience allowed him to build his
knowledge based on his own capacities?
Q10. Do you think that this topic is still very difficult to understand, learn and use
after the experience developed?
From the results obtained from the survey, we can affirm that the fact of having
applied collaborative learning techniques and academic controversy to such a techni-
cal topic as the provision of cryptographic confidentiality is feasible, and also favors
the situational learning of students with respect to a given topic.
Likewise, a comparison was made with respect to the academic performance
achieved in this topic by two groups of students, those enrolled in the 2019A cycle
with whom the experience was carried out, and the students enrolled in the previous
cycle (2018A) with whom a traditional course was developed. Clearly, an improve-
ment in the academic performance of those enrolled in the 2019A cycle can be seen
in Fig. 13, which is evidenced by the grades obtained by the two groups of students.
226 L. D. Barra et al.

Academic performance
45%
42%
35%

26%

16% 14% 13%

7%
0% 0% 0% 1%

00 01 - 07 08 - 10 11 - 14 15 - 17 18 - 20
Qualificaons (00-20)

Cycle 2018A Cycle 2019A

Fig. 13 Result of the academic performance of the students in the last two cycles

6 Conclusions

The model of situated learning allows the student to shorten the distance between
real situations of professional practice and fundamental academic training because
it allows him/her to perceive real scenarios in which assumes a specific role, which
gives meaning to the learning process.
Cooperative techniques, where the student builds his/her own knowledge, are
fundamental to adapt learning styles, the student becomes the center of knowledge
appropriation, however, it could be dangerous if the teacher does not assume with
responsibility his role of facilitator since the student could freely go to non-relevant
sources of knowledge or erroneous or incomplete sources. Follow-up processes are
therefore essential.
When applying cooperative learning techniques, it is important to consider the
fact that the teacher’s role is primarily of an actor who guides the learning that stu-
dents acquire as the activities are carried out. However, it requires greater teacher
participation in the previous stage, where they must plan very clearly and precisely
each of the activities to be carried out by the students, as well as establish the envi-
ronment in which they will be carried out. This fact is one of the success factors
in the teaching-learning process, and it requires that the teacher involve many more
resources than he or she would in a traditional teaching process.
Academic controversy is a good tool for the development of critical judgment
because it allows the student to assume opposing roles, which, in some cases, such
as in cyber security, for example, may even facilitate ethical judgments.
With the academic controversy well managed, it can be improved through gam-
bling techniques, finally this didactic experience could be interpreted in a simple
Situated Learning Through the Use of Cooperative Techniques … 227

sense as a game of defense and attack. A game that requires a thorough theoreti-
cal training for its implementation, but whose playfulness is motivating for young
university students.
The provision of cybersecurity services such as confidentiality is increasingly sen-
sitive services, so the training of professionals with greater expertise and knowledge
is essential. This improvement in training is achieved through the intensive use of
tools and computer resources in the implementation of the solution, as well as the
greatest possible amount of training when facing new challenges.

Acknowledgements The authors express our gratitude to the National University of San Agustin
from Arequipa for the support received in carrying out this work and express our expectation that
the results will be translated into benefits for the institution.

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Evolutionary Algorithm
for Content-Based Image Search

Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, and Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama

Abstract Content-based image retrieval systems attempt to provide a means of

searching for images in large repositories without using any information other than
that contained in the image itself, usually in the form of low-level descriptors. Since
these descriptors do not accurately represent the semantics of the image, evaluating
the perceptual similarity between two images based only on them is not a trivial task.
This paper describes an effective method for image recovery based on evolutionary
computing techniques. The results are compared with those obtained by the classical
approach of the movement of the query point and the rescheduling of the axes and by a
technique based on self-organizing maps, showing a remarkably higher performance
in the repositories.

Keywords Image recovery · IGA · Genetic algorithm

1 Introduction

Information retrieval addresses the problem of searching for digital resources in large
databases. Content-based image retrieval systems are a special type of information
retrieval system where the resources are images [1]. Commonly, these systems rep-
resent an image through a series of descriptors, related to color, texture or shape.
These descriptors are used in the recovery process to judge the similarity between
images. The most recent systems follow an iterative model and consider the user

J. Silva (B)
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
N. Varela
Universidad de la Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 229
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_20
230 J. Silva et al.

as an active part of the process. In each iteration, a set of images is shown, and the
user marks those that most resemble the concept he is looking for. The result of the
information processing is a new set of images that are displayed again, continuing
the iterative process until the desired image is found [2].
On the other hand, evolutionary computing deals with the application of natu-
ral selection and genetic concepts to computational models, encompassing a series
of techniques based on reproduction, competition, selection and the existence of
mutations, such as genetic algorithms [3] and evolutionary strategies [4].
The application of evolutionary computing techniques in the field of information
retrieval is not new. In particular, it has been applied to specific aspects such as the
grouping of results [5], the optimization of consultations [6] and feedback [7]. In
the case of image search, evolutionary strategies are used to measure the similarity
between two images by combining descriptors [8] and to build complete recovery
systems using interactive mechanisms [9, 10].
This paper presents the use of an interactive genetic algorithm as an efficient
feedback mechanism for image search. The system was evaluated and compared
with other existing algorithms, obtaining promising results.
The classic approaches, the feedback mechanism uses the user’s selection to
update both the query point and the weights, so that emphasis is placed on those
characteristics that seem most relevant [11, 12]. Other approaches include the use of
Bayesian techniques [13, 14], self-Organizing Maps (SOM) [15], and more recent
methods such as the use of Support Vector Machines (SVM) [16, 17], regressive
models [18], or approaches based on sets and fuzzy logic [19, 20].

2 The Algorithm

2.1 The Search

The purpose of an image search system is to retrieve images that best satisfy a
semantic question. To perform the searches, a series of descriptors are extracted from
each image and stored in feature vectors [5]. These characteristics are grouped in
coherent descriptors, such as color histogram, wavelet coefficients or characteristics
in the Fourier domain. In genetic terms, the representation of characteristics of an
image is equivalent to its genotype, while the image itself is its phenotype. Although
it is common to have algorithms in which there is a function that allows generating
the phenotype from its genotype, in this case, it is not possible to generate an image
from its representation in the general space of characteristics.
Evolutionary Algorithm for Content-Based Image Search 231

2.2 Representation

In principle, the technique presented in this paper can be used with any set of
descriptors, although the performance of the resulting system will strongly depend
on the degree to which the descriptors satisfy the condition of strong causality in the
genotype–phenotype relationship [3].

2.3 Evaluation Function

If the current population is composed of the images that have been shown to the
user, those that have been qualified as positive are those that have a phenotype that
most closely matches the query [14]. Therefore, these are the images that should
reproduce and are assigned a maximum score. The rest of the images shown are
discarded from the crossing process. A more common procedure is to assign lower
goodness to these other images, assigning them a lower probability of participating
in the reproduction.
A composite distance measurement using the distance measurements between
each of the individual descriptors can be used to calculate the neighbors, such as a
linear combination of standardized distances [7] (used in this case for simplicity) or
the probabilistic combination presented in [20].

2.4 Selection of Parents

Parents are chosen using the Russian roulette algorithm, assigning the same prob-
ability to each of the positive selections and their neighbors, and zero to any other
image in the population [18]. In fact, the application of the Russian roulette algo-
rithm, in this case, is equivalent to selecting individuals at random from the enriched
population.

2.5 Evolution Rules

In a standard genetic algorithm, individuals from a new generation are evaluated by

the evaluation function. In an interactive genetic algorithm, the evaluation function
is replaced by the judgment of the user, and this is only possible in the space of the
phenotypes [4].
Since there is not a conversion function between the two spaces, it is not pos-
sible for the user to judge the genotypes that are generated by standard mutation
and crossing operations, unless the domain of potential solutions to the problem is
232 J. Silva et al.

restricted to those genotypes that have a known phenotype. In the context of a search
system, the potential solutions are the images in the repository [6]. It is of little use to
generate a more suitable genotype if it cannot generate the corresponding phenotype
to provide it to the user. This restriction in the domain has significant implications on
the crossing operations, and conditions the procedure used to simulate the evolution.

2.6 A Global Approach

The algorithm can be summarized in the following steps [11, 17, 18]:
1. A series of images are shown in the graphical interface.
2. As part of the enrichment, operation is used to obtain the genotypes closest to
the positive selections.
3. The crossing operator is applied to parents randomly selected from the individuals
that make up the enriched population. The resulting genotypes are synthetic, in
the sense that they may not correspond to an existing image in the database.
For each of these genotypes, a new order is produced, using the same distance
function that was used to find the neighbors.
4. Each image is assigned a score that is inversely proportional to its best position
in the rankings.

3 Results

In the field of image recovery, significant efforts have been made to establish com-
mon evaluation methods. To be able to compare the performance of image recovery
systems, it is necessary to use a common repository. Although the collection called
Corel Photo CD has been used by several authors to evaluate their algorithms, each
one has done it on a different subset of images, the collection is subject to copy-
right, it is not free and it is no longer available through Corel [17]. Furthermore,
the classification it provides is not suitable for testing purposes since, as reported
in [18], many images representing similar concepts are in different directories and
some directories contain images with very different semantic content.
Therefore, in order to evaluate the algorithm, a test suite using the two repositories
described below was manually created:
• A small database of 2541 images, extracted from the Web and manually classified
as belonging to 30 different semantic concepts, such as flowers, horses, pictures,
clouds, trees, etc. The number of images under each category varies from 25 to 400.
This database and its classification were used in [14, 21], where a more detailed
explanation is provided. The descriptors used in this case are the color histogram
HS (with 10 × 3 components), and the horizontal and vertical granulometries
Evolutionary Algorithm for Content-Based Image Search 233

[12], calculated as specified in [3]. To estimate similarities between the color

descriptors of two images the intersection of the histogram was used [6]. The
Euclidean distance was used for the rest of the descriptors, and in general, in the
rest of the paper unless otherwise specified.
• A repository composed of 7851 images, manually extracted from a collection of
230,574 images of free distribution and acquired through the company INNOVA
Development. The images were carefully selected and manually classified into
60 categories so that the images belonging to the same category represent similar
concepts.
The performance of the algorithm was compared with two other representative
image retrieval approaches. In particular, the results were compared with those
obtained using a classical repositioning algorithm of query point and axis rescal-
ing [7, 21] and using an engine that uses principles similar to those presented in
the PicSOM system [9], using 16 × 16 and 32 × 32 size SOM for the two reposi-
tories described above, and without implementing the hierarchical SOM due to the
relatively small size of the repositories. To allow evaluation, all the algorithms were
adapted to work with the same descriptors.
In order to perform the experiments a system similar to those described in [4, 7]
was designed, simulating the user’s judgments based on the available classification.
A certain number of images belonging to each category was selected (randomly and
without repeating any), and they were fed to the system as a query, representing
the concept to be searched. Based on this concept, and emulating the action of the
user, the system emits automatic judgments on the first 50 images of the order that
returns the algorithm, marking as positive those that are in the same category of the
consultation.
For measuring the performance, a number of relevant images were used among
the first k images of the order produced by each algorithm (accuracy in the k-slice
value). The results are presented for k = 50.
Under this particular configuration, positive selections are not dependent on con-
text and therefore the decision of whether or not an image is relevant does not change
as the search progresses. Since the accuracy measured at a certain k-slice value is
proportional to the number of images that are among the first k images of the com-
mand, this measurement can be significantly improved if the positive selections are
always positioned in this set. The strong elitism proposed in the implementation
guarantees this treatment. However, the approaches for comparison, as proposed in
the original paper do not use it, offering a significant advantage over them. For this
reason, the original algorithms were modified to compare so that they also implement
this characteristic.
In order to obtain representative data, each technique was evaluated on more than
1000 searches, averaging the results. All the algorithms were subjected to exactly
the same searches and it was artificially forced to always appear a relevant image
among the first 50 of the initial order. Figures 1 and 2 show the accuracy obtained in
each iteration for each of the compared algorithms. As can be noted, the interactive
genetic algorithm presented in this study provides better results on both repositories.
234 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 1 Precision in the

cut-off value 50 obtained
with each of the algorithms
considered, in the repository
of 1508 images

Fig. 2 Precision in the

cut-off value 50 obtained
with each of the algorithms
considered, in the repository
of 5476 images

4 Conclusions

The performance of the evolutionary algorithm presented in this paper is based on the
assumption of strong causality between phenotype and genotype, which has made it
possible to work with neighborhoods to enrich the population and base the ordering of
the images in the database according to their proximity to the generated descendants.
The approach presented in this study is not only valid for systems based on binary
selections (relevant/not relevant). On the contrary, it can be easily adapted to work
with other types of paradigms. As an example, some search systems allow the user
to assign a degree of similarity to each image, using scroll bars. In this case, the
degree of similarity can be used as an evaluation function, altering the probabilities
of each image so that those with a greater degree of similarity are more likely to be
reproduced.
As future research, the effect of using different representations and crossing tech-
niques can be studied, compare the performance obtained with each of them in the
context of the problem.
Evolutionary Algorithm for Content-Based Image Search 235

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Online Platform to Teach Aviation
English at a Military School in Salinas

Víctor Almeida, Marisol Gutiérrez, José Zambrano, and Rosalba Rodríguez

Abstract This research aims at providing the Military Aviation School “ESMA-
Cosme Renella Barbatto”, located in Salinas in the province of Santa Elena, Ecuador,
with an online teaching tool that helps to enhance the methodology applied in the
subject of Aviation English (AE). The International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO), which is the official organization in charge of Aviation English training
programs, states that the structures taught in this English for Specific Purposes (ESP)
courses are based mostly on the communicative intention rather than grammatical
rules. The ICAO also recognizes, in the document 9835, the use of computers as
supporting tools during the learning process and suggests Blended Learning as an
approach that optimizes the organization of face-to-face sessions when teaching
Aviation English. To this end, a mixed-method research was selected to gather and
process data that supports the need of implementing an online platform, the research
tools were an interview to the teacher, who is also an Aviation Instructor from the
ESMA Flight Training Department, and a survey to the 39 pilot cadets who will be
part of the course. The results revealed a positive attitude towards the platform, it
was considered by the participants to be a pedagogical “link” between technology
and teaching methodology.

Keywords Aviation English · Online platform · Blended learning

V. Almeida
Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Gutiérrez (B) · R. Rodríguez
Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas—ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
R. Rodríguez
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Zambrano
Universidad Casa Grande, Guayaquil, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 237
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_21
238 V. Almeida et al.

1 Aviation English at the Military Aviation School “ESMA”

This research was conducted at “Escuela Superior Militar de Aviación Cosme Renella
Barbatto” (ESMA), which is one of the bases of the Ecuadorian Air Force, located
in Salinas, province of Santa Elena, Ecuador. The cadets who are trained to become
military pilots must first pass the eight levels of General English established in
the curriculum redesign, in order to be certified as B2 speakers by an international
authorized center. Once cadets finish General English levels, they start the English
for Specific Purposes (ESP) subject “Aviation English”, which is mandatory to obtain
their bachelor´s degree in Aeronautical Sciences. The hours assigned to this subject
are 64 hours of face-to-face instruction and 32 hours of autonomous work.
The main objective of Aviation English is to develop the skills needed for com-
munication in a foreign language as well as the parameters included in the standards
established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This organiza-
tion recognizes six levels of English proficiency: Pre-elementary (1), Elementary (2),
Pre-operational (3), Operational (4), Extended (5) and Expert (6). ICAO Operational
Level 4 is a requirement for all pilots around the world, and for this reason, it is fun-
damental to provide knowledgeable cadets so that they could be able to communicate
in international operations [1].
Aviation English is pivotal in the communication between the cabin crew members
and the air traffic controllers since it has special features in its terminology and plays
an important role for safety issues while flying. Considering all these aspects, the
cadets of ESMA must be able to handle the correct terminology for taking off or
landing, in addition to all the phrases related to the various maneuvers required
during the flights. In the guidelines for teaching Aviation English established by the
ICAO, it is classified as English for Specific Purposes (ESP) and the communicative
approach is the primary teaching methodology [2].
Canale and Swain assert that the goal of any language course should be to equip
learners who can communicate in the real-world. For this reason, the implementation
of authentic tasks is paramount to develop the four language skills. Having said that,
the process of language acquisition in Communicative Language Teaching (CLT)
takes place using real-life material that enables learners to interact naturally applying
the lexicon provided during instruction [3].
According to the ICAO guidelines for the implementation of Aviation English
courses, the course materials are required to be relevant researches and documents
supported by the use of visual aids that allow learners to become familiar with aviation
topics to create meaningful experiences [1]. So as to innovate and complement the
methodology applied in this subject, it was collected data to support the fact that an
online platform would complement the teaching methodology of Aviation English;
it was designed using updated materials based on the standard phraseology and
radiotelephonic communication.
Online Platform to Teach Aviation English … 239

2 Literature Review

According to Hutchinson and Waters, there is no specific methodology for ESP

courses; nonetheless, selecting appropriate teaching strategies is part of the success of
Aviation English programs [4]. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
establishes on its language proficiency manual, the Communicative Approach as the
main method for developing the six language skill areas one might encounter in the
ICAO Rating Scale: pronunciation, structure, vocabulary, fluency, comprehension,
and interactions. This manual also stipulates that the main goal of aviation training
courses must be to achieve the ICAO’s Operational level 4 (similar to a B1 level in
General English) which is the minimum level of English proficiency required to be
an international licensed pilot [1].
Content-Based Language Training (CBLT) approach is also part of the method-
ology described in the manual for aviation language proficiency [1]. The ICAO
considers CBLT as an effective method for ESP courses for pilots and air traffic
controllers (ATCOs). This organization states that this approach focuses on learn-
ing a language based on the content of a specific field. It helps learners to develop
language functions that are directly related to aviation safety issues as well as the
inclusion of high-interest topics which can motivate students to acquire the needed
lexicon for flight operations. The ICAO lists some of the appropriate classroom activ-
ities of an aviation content-based language course, these are: task-based activities,
problem-solving, team-building exercises, role-play, and simulations [1].
A study presented by Bonk, Olson, Wisher, and Orvis was aimed at analyzing
the impact of the blended learning approach in the context of a high-level military
course of United States Army Armor School in Fort Knox, Kentucky [5]. This work
was developed in three phases using asynchronous internet-based learning in the
initial stage, synchronous learning in virtual collaborative chat tool in the second
part, and face-to-face learning in the last phase. Interviews with students, teachers,
and advisors allowed the researchers to determine the pros and cons of this approach
in ESP courses.
Among the advantages that were mentioned by the participants, there was the fact
that synchronous tasks seem to encourage teamwork more than asynchronous activi-
ties. Additionally, researchers found that online activities created a more meaningful
learning environment due to their authenticity, which led to realistic problem-solving
scenarios. On the other hand, there were some learning issues that were caused by
two different factors in the three stages of the investigation; these are lack of knowl-
edge of ICT tools during synchronous and asynchronous computer-based tasks as
well as problems to complete class assignments during the face-to-face sessions due
to time constraints.
According to Bonk et al. the results of this research proved that blended learning
tasks are preferred by the students because of their effectiveness, flexibility, and
immediate feedback. It was also confirmed that traditional teaching may not be the
most suitable methodology for certain educational fields. The implementation of
240 V. Almeida et al.

new methodologies like blended learning in different academic fields could have a
positive impact on this ESP course [5].
Blended learning (BL) is considered by the ICAO as part of the solution when
having time constraints in aviation training programs [1], which would be the case
at ESMA, as all the teaching approaches, strategies and techniques must be adapted
to the 64 hours assigned to this subject. Garrison and Vaughan describe the basic
principle of BL to be the optimal integration of face-to-face instruction with appro-
priate online resources to develop oral and written communication. The possibility
of assigning tasks not only for classroom activities but also for autonomous prac-
tices could reinforce all the skills; particularly, those that require more time to be
examined such as comprehension, structure or vocabulary [6].

3 Methodology

This research was developed by applying a mixed methodology, due to the fact, that
it was collected quantitative and qualitative data. This approach is suitable for this
investigation since it permits the researchers to obtain reliable information from a
specific educational scenery, which in this case involves not only the cadets but also
the flight instructor, who are the target participants in the ESP module. Consequently,
this study is considered as explicatory as it proposes the implementation of a platform,
and it was developed following a non-experimental research design.
In order to collect quantitative data: a survey was administered to the cadets, as
for qualitative data, an interview was applied to the instructor. The results of the
survey described the cadets’ preferences regarding learning techniques, especially
when acquiring new lexicon in a specialized area using a foreign language. Among
the findings, it was possible to determine that the 54% of the participants considered
online tasks meaningful for further practice in the process of acquiring technical
vocabulary, while the 38% prefer classroom tasks and the 8% rather use a book or
any other printed material are as it is displayed on Table 1.
On the other hand, qualitative information was also necessary in order to identify
the perception of the instructor regarding aspects such as teaching methodology,
organization of the syllabus, assessment of the ESP module, and the importance of
Aviation English for Military pilots. Therefore, an interview related to these topics
was carried out to analyze aspects that are essential in the process of acquiring

Table 1 Types of tasks for further practice

Types of tasks for further practice in the subject of aviation English Percent
Classroom tasks 38
Book or printed material tasks 8
Virtual or online tasks 54
Online Platform to Teach Aviation English … 241

Table 2 Implementation of an online platform in the aviation English subject

Implementation of an online platform in the aviation English subject Percent
Agree 100
Disagree 0

knowledge. The results of the interview revealed the need for providing the instructor
with a teaching tool that enables cadets to have further practice on their own.
The results also show the acceptance of the participants in the use of an online
platform during the process of acquiring the lexicon needed for flight operations,
and according to the ICAO’s guidelines for Aviation English training, the use of
Blended Learning for this type of courses can be a more efficient teaching approach
since “foundation skills” (structure, vocabulary, listening comprehension and, to a
certain degree, pronunciation) can easily be practiced in the autonomous hours of
study inside of a lab or computer-based learning environments [1] (Table 2).

3.1 Digital Resources Selected for the Design

Learning Management Systems (LMSs) are web applications that are run on a server
and can be accessed through a web browser. LMSs provide educators with tools to
design and implement learning programs in which students can be enrolled in order
to solve tasks, upload or download material, chat or have class discussions, as well
as give quizzes or record grades [7]. Modular Object-Oriented Dynamic Learning
Environment (Moodle) was selected for the platform elaboration since it is a flexible
open-source which can be adapted to different learning needs and it is available in
more than 100 languages.
In the work of Kareal and Klema, some LMSs were compared focusing on par-
ticular features like user-friendliness and possibility of adaptability, and the results
proved that Moodle is preferred by most institutions because it is practical and can
be customized according to educational necessities [8]. To implement a Moodle site,
it is needed to have a domain, which is the name of the website. It allows users to
have access to the website [9]. In this case the domain is English for aviation.online.
Google Slides is an editor of presentations in the Google Docs and Drive produc-
tivity suite which will be also used for the creation of the platform. These slides are
visible in a linear form, all the presentations can be edited in real-time, shared with
contacts, and they are on the drive of the Google account which is been used [10].
Additionally, for the exercises of the platform, it was used the program H5P, which
is an open-source that allows web designers to create, share and reuse interactive
materials like videos, presentations or tests [11]. It will enable learners to check the
answers of an activity, a score will be given, and they can also have the option to see
the solution of exercises.
242 V. Almeida et al.

For further practice, some videos from the Youtube website, related to Aviation
English, were included as extra material as well as some simulation games. According
to Hertel & Millis, the students feel more interested and conscious of the topic and
function since they are actively participating. Hence students can develop leadership
skills and solve the problem easily [12]. Plus, the learning environment created
in class is much better and productive because the learners will be able to solve
real-world problems.

3.2 The Online Platform

First, it is necessary to go to the URL: http://englishforaviation.online/, which has

been especially designed for this purpose and click on the top-right button login.
Cadets will be provided with a username and a password to log in the first time they
have access to the platform, there is a brief presentation of the objectives in each unit
of the courses available on the homepage. Figures 1 illustrates the process of logging
in.
Once the students have selected the course in which they are enrolled, the units of
the module appear in grids. Each unit covers different topics related to aviation and
there are different options for students to see assignments, grades, forums and other
resources available, including the ICAO’s guidelines for Aviation English, however,
it is important to mention that students must solve all the tasks of a unit to have access
to the next section. Figure 2 shows the units available on the platform.
Each unit starts with a short explanation related to the four lessons that are dis-
played on the platform; the purpose of this is to activate prior knowledge in order
to be prepared for what the instructor will explain in classroom sessions afterward.

Fig. 1 Home page

Online Platform to Teach Aviation English … 243

Fig. 2 Resources available

The first unit deals with vocabulary related to Runway Incursions and it includes
four lessons which are displayed on this section, all the tasks presented to teach the
students how to use vocabulary to avoid miscommunication, request information to
the control tower, audios of real incidents to be discussed in class and one evaluation
of all the contents of the unit. It is important to mention that the teacher is able to
modify any of the tasks depending on their relevance or the time assigned for each
unit. Figures 3 and 4 show all the activities and content which are available for all
the participants of the course.
As for the assessment, most of the tasks are graded and the answers are presented.
This autonomous practice can be carried out by students around the topics that pupils
consider difficult to understand. It is shaped to attain the different individualities of
students and as a way of reinforcement with additional exercises to be completed on
their own as it is illustrated in Figs. 5 and 6.
Speaking and listening skills can be anticipated by using the platform, students
can do some research to justify the answers given in class. The role of the instructor
is fundamental in the development of fluency, accurate selection of terminology and
interaction with the students. Listening and speaking tasks are illustrated on Figs. 7
and 8, there are different ways of motivating students to investigate in order to acquire
appropriate aviation terminology.
It is highly recommended that after the implementation of the platform there must
be selected two moments for monitoring the performance of the platform. These
two evaluation points in time are going to generate feedback that could determine
new strategies for reinforcing any weak parts found on the blended methodology
244 V. Almeida et al.

Fig. 3 Unit presentation

Fig. 4 Section 2, unit 1

Online Platform to Teach Aviation English … 245

Fig. 5 Assessment on the platform

Fig. 6 Vocabulary assessment

supported by the online platform. In addition, it is also necessary that a mock exam
of Aviation English proficiency should be included as a final evaluation to recognize
if the contents of the platform as well as in the syllabus contribute to reach the level
4 of the ICAO’s language operational scale.
246 V. Almeida et al.

Fig. 7 Listening tasks on the platform

Fig. 8 Speaking tasks on the platform

4 Discussion

Aviation English at ESMA is taught as a subject which is part of the curriculum

redesign, therefore, it is mandatory that cadets are able to manage the lexicon needed
to perform flight operations internationally. The contents listed on the syllabus are
aligned to those required by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO),
which is the official organization in charge of aviation English training programs.
The number of teaching hours assigned to this subject is 64 hours of face-to-face
Online Platform to Teach Aviation English … 247

instruction and 32 of autonomous work of study, based on this fact; the main purpose
of the current research is to implement an online platform that allows cadets to
develop all the skills needed in the field of English for Aviation. The tasks included
on the platform may be used before a class to activate prior knowledge or after a
session to reinforce topics, especially during autonomous hours of study.
According to the ICAO’s manual related to Language Proficiency Requirements,
computer-assisted language learning (CALL) enables Aviation English training pro-
grams to practice the skills needed to perform flight operations, additionally, the
ICAO also highlights the importance of computers as supporting tools during the
training process; nevertheless, this organization clarifies that any technological
device could never replace the role educators have in language learning. For that
reason, the most suitable teaching approach for this subject is Blended Learning,
which according to the ICAO is a worthy alternative when having time limitations
[13].
Computers are part of the instruments used for interaction among learners and
instructors providing learners with the opportunity of practicing the language on
their own. On the other hand, speaking as well as listening skills must be primar-
ily developed in face-to-face sessions, particularly in the context of plain-language
radiotelephony communications, instructors of Aviation English training programs
must spend classroom time on communicative tasks and interaction skills that are at
the heart of the ICAO language requirements. The results of the survey confirmed that
most of the cadets who will be part of the course prefer online exercises for further
practice; likewise, the instructor mentioned in the interview that the use of technol-
ogy throughout the teaching process is relevant and offers students the possibility to
improve.
Based on the results from the study presented by Bonk, Olson, Wisher, and Orvis
which was aimed at analyzing the impact of the blended learning approach in the
context of a high-level military course of United States Army Armor School in Fort
Knox, Kentucky [5], one of the advantages of this methodology was that online
activities created a more meaningful learning environment due to their authenticity,
which led to realistic problem-solving scenarios. It is important to mention that at
ESMA, all the cadets possess a laptop with a strong and secure internet connection,
therefore, lack of knowledge of ICT tools will not represent a limitation. According
to Bonk et al. the results of this research proved that blended learning tasks are
preferred by the students because of their effectiveness, flexibility and immediate
feedback [5].

5 Conclusions

Blended Learning is the most efficient methodology for teaching Aviation English
at ESMA, this approach allows cadets to use the 60 hours established for classroom
sessions for speaking training and the 32 hours of autonomous work for further
practice in topics which required to be reinforced on their own. The results of the
248 V. Almeida et al.

survey confirmed that most of the cadets who will be part of the course prefer online
exercises for further practice, likewise, the instructor mentioned in the interview that
the use of technology throughout the teaching process is relevant and offers students
the possibility to improve at their own pace.
In order to strengthen all the contents of the subject of Aviation English, an online
platform has been designed based on the objectives established on the syllabus of
this subject. However, before implementing the online platform, there must be taken
into consideration that instructors assigned to teach this subject must be familiar with
40 hours of training in order to familiarize themselves with the necessary teaching
techniques required for Blended Learning courses. It is highly recommended that
after the implementation of the platform, two evaluation points take place to generate
feedback that could determine new strategies for reinforcing any weak parts found
on the blended methodology supported by the online platform.
There must be a period of induction for teachers and cadets which includes: how
to log in for the first time, how to solve or any of the tasks, how to upload additional
material and how to use all the learning resources available on the platform. It is
necessary to monitor the effectiveness of the platform through the application of a
diagnostic and a final test to track the progress of students. Additionally, the instructor
may consider to include a mock exam of Aviation English as part of the training, to
determine not only the platform´s impact but also to analyze if the contents included
in the syllabus enables cadets to reach the operational level 4 required by the ICAO.

References

1. ICAO.: Guidelines for Aviation English Training Programme, s. Cir 323. ICAO (2009)
2. ICAO.: Manual on the Implementation of ICAO Language Proficiency Requirements, (Doc
9835 AN/453). Montreal: International Civil Aviation Organization (2004)
3. Swai, M., Canale, M.S.: Theoretical bases of communicative approaches to second language
teaching and testing. Appl. Linguist. I(1), 1–47. Retrieved from https://academic.oup.com/
applij/article-abstract/I/1/1/181953?redirectedFrom=fu (1980)
4. Hutchison & Waters: English for Specific Purposes: A Learner-Centred Approach. Cambridge
University Press, England (1987)
5. Bonk, C.J., Olson, T.M., Wisher, R.A., Orvis, K.L.: Learning from focus groups: an examination
of blended learning. J. Distance Educ. 17(3), 97–118 (2002)
6. Garrison, D., Vaughan, N.: Blended Learning in Higher Education: Framework, Principles,
and Guidelines. Wiley, San Francisco (2008)
7. Singh, J.: How to Use Moodle 2.7, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported
License (2015)
8. Kareal, F., Klema, J.: Adaptivity in e-learning. Current Developments in Technology-Assisted
Education, Current Developments in Technology-Assisted Education, pp. 260–264. Retrieved
18.2.2015 from http://karlovi.cz/filip/adaptivity_in_e-learni (2006)
9. Moodle, «Moodle Docs» (En línea). Available: https://docs.moodle.org/34/en/Main_page
(2018)
10. Google «Google Suite». (En línea). Available: https://gsuite.google.com/products/drive/ (2018)
11. H5P, H5P. Retrieved from H5P: https://h5p.org/MIT-licensed (2018)
12. Hertel, J.P., Millis, B.J.: Using Simulations to Promote Learning in Higher Education: An
Introduction. Stylus, Sterling (2002)
Online Platform to Teach Aviation English … 249

13. ICAO.: Manual on the Implementation of ICAO Language Proficiency Requirements. Retrieved
from Manual on the Implementation of ICAO Language Proficiency Requirements: http://
teleduc2.icea.gov.br/EPLIS_wp/docs/Doc9835.pdf (2010)
14. ICAEA.: Guidelines for Aviation English Training Programmes. Retrieved from ICAEA:
https://www.icaea.aero/about-icaea/projects/icao-circular-323/ (2017)
15. ICAO.: About ICAO.” ICAO. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 October 2015. Retrieved from http://www.
icao.int/secretariat/TechnicalCooperation/Pages/history.aspx (2015)
Manufacturing Cost Prediction Through
Data Mining

Andrea Díaz, Simón Fernández, Laura Guerra, and Eleazar Díaz

Abstract This paper explores the feasibility of predicting manufacturing costs of a

product with nonparametric methods through data mining. A dataset consisting of
qualitative and quantitative attributes was collected from one of the largest menswear
manufacturers in North America. Products with similar characteristics in this dataset
were analyzed and clustered together using the k-medoids algorithm and a cost esti-
mation regression model was established for each cluster. This allowed an assessment
of the best cluster to assign a new product and then predict its manufacturing cost
based on its regression model. Rousseeuw’s silhouette width was applied to deter-
mine the optimal number of clusters as 18 and then polynomial regression models
were assigned to determine the manufacturing cost of each cluster. The k-medoids
clustering algorithm proved to be compatible with the dataset which included mixed
categorical and numerical variables. Predictive costing through data analysis will lay
the foundations for properly understanding and structuring manufacturing costs.

Keywords Data mining · Manufacturing cost · Clusters · Predictive model

1 Research Problem

It is a well-known fact that business decision making can be affected by multiple

factors. Since these have the potential of deviating decisions in an undesired way,

A. Díaz · S. Fernández
University of Cumberland, Williamsburg, KY 41042, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
S. Fernández
e-mail: [email protected]
L. Guerra (B) · E. Díaz
Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador Ibarra Headquarters, Ibarra 100150, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
E. Díaz
e-mail: [email protected]
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 251
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_22
252 A. Díaz et al.

many of these can be crucial in the birth and life of a product. Of all those factors,
two specifically stand out: cost and time estimation. Failing to properly predict these
could generate a loss in revenue or lead to missing out on a contract or a project
objective which would otherwise have been met [1, 2].
Cost assessment is too often carried out by models that rely on very difficult
and time-consuming processes [3, 4]. Companies then find themselves in the search
and need of accurate prediction models with which to estimate cost and time of
production from the initial design and early life of a product. Organizations frequently
ask themselves:
• Can the design and manufacturing process be transformed to obtain accurate
results quickly?
• Can efficiency be improved through the evaluation and analysis of data from
digital applications in our process?
• Can the latest breakthroughs in data science allow us to improve forecasts and
new product development?
The clear cut competitive advantage is definitely established by those companies
who successfully implement predictive cost assessment as part of their organiza-
tion [5]. When performed in the development phase, the consolidation of all costs
associated with a future service or product, through predictive costing, is capable of
illuminating potential scenarios when most of the decisions are still in the works.
The incapacity of manufacturers to quickly and effectively estimate costs could
potentially put them at risk and threaten their economic survival on the global market.
Etienne et al. [6], Li et al. [7], Marini and Corney [8] stated two possible scenarios
when product prices are poorly established, which depends on product cost. One
scenario shows a potential loss of profit due to the gap between the expected cost and
the actual cost, while the other focuses on the loss of customers due to unnecessary
high prices.
Because establishing a price that maximizes customer value and is still profitable
is crucial, it should not be based on intuition expectation [9, 10]. The best way would
be to use analytical approaches instead. Too often an immense amount of money
is allocated in the manufacturing process leaving decision makers unaware of the
importance of properly estimating manufacturing costs prior to irreversible actions
being taken. Thus, with the highly competitive and technologically data-driven envi-
ronment in which businesses now operate, accurately estimating manufacturing costs
is a must to thrive and survive [11].

2 Method and Approach

The purpose of this study lies in evaluating the feasibility of predicting manufacturing
costs of a product with nonparametric methods, or in other words, without having
to determine probability distributions or making assumptions on certain parameters.
In order to do this, the physical characteristics and similarities of products were
Manufacturing Cost Prediction Through Data Mining 253

converted to mathematical similarities to help compare products. Since the number

of product comparisons can become significantly large over a diverse product family,
establishing one sole accurate estimation model is very difficult or inaccurate [12].
It was considered to divide the database of products into groups or neighborhoods
until these reach a homogenous point. From a statistics standpoint, these groups were
called clusters and cost estimation (polynomial regression) models were specifically
developed for each of these clusters of products. Any new product can then be
assigned to the pre-established clusters since they can be represented as points in
Euclidean space based on its variables. Once assigned to the best matching cluster,
we will be able to predict its manufacturing cost based on the cluster-specific cost
estimation model previously defined [13, 14].
The problem was addressed in two stages: (1) Products with similar character-
istics were clustered together using the k-medoids algorithm, and a cost estimation
regression model were established for each cluster, (2) the best cluster to assign a
new product was assessed and followed by a prediction of its manufacturing cost
based on its regression model.

2.1 Dataset and Data Analysis

The dataset was collected from one of the largest menswear manufacturers in North
America, which produces suits and coats for men and boys. The company has been
operating for over 20 years and currently makes over 1300 coats a week, or roughly
300,000 a year. The manufacturing process includes around 200 stages that go from
spreading the fabric, cutting, fusing, sewing fronts, backs, sleeves, collar and facings,
followed by assembly, pressing and quality control.
It was collected from the company database using the last six months information
only, with the purpose of having the most updated data, which contains information
for 30,000 coats. Table 1 shows a summary of the dataset including the description of
the attributes associated with the products [15]. Each object (coat) consists of a fixed
set of data fields (attributes), which in total sum up to fourteen. Four of these variables
are quantitative (numerical), while the rest are considered qualitative (categorical).
Table 1 contains the variable name, data type, variable type and categories (for
categorical data) or range (for numerical data). For ordinal data, the last column of
categories presents the labels in order from lowest to highest in its ordinal scale.
It is worth highlighting that the variables presented in Table 1 were chosen
according to the manufacturing process and of the cost drivers involved.
254 A. Díaz et al.

Table 1 Summary of the dataset

Variable name Data type Variable type Categories/range
Fabric type Categorical Nominal [1,000,000, 9,999,999]
Price Numerical Ratio (0, 2000]
Size Numerical Ratio [38, 60]
Length Categorical Ordinal Short regular long X-long
Front Categorical Nominal SB (single breasted) DB (double breasted)
Lapel Categorical Nominal Notched peak shawl
Front buttons Numerical Ratio [1, 3]
Lower pockets Categorical Nominal Patch, double besom, flap
Breast pockets Categorical Nominal Patch, welt
Ticket pocket Categorical Binary Yes, no
Sleeves buttons Numerical Ratio [0,4]
Back Categorical Nominal Side vent, center vent, no vent
Pic-stitching Categorical Binary Yes, no
Front dart Categorical Nominal Marked, none

3 Results

First, it is important to discuss clustering techniques and dissimilarity measures in

order to decide which is the most appropriate one to use according to the data, and
which in this case, it is mixed, numeric and categorical data.
A fundamental issue in partitioning clustering it’s determining the optimal number
of clusters. To obtain this number, Rousseeuw’s silhouette width was applied, which
operates on a dissimilarity matrix and can be used for a mixed dataset.
Rousseeuw’s silhouette width measures the quality of a clustering, meaning it
defines how well each cluster lies within its cluster. After assigning different values
for “k” or number of clusters, it needs to be determined the average silhouette width
for the entire dataset. The optimal number of clusters is the one that maximizes the
index. The silhouette width ranges from −1 to 1; the quality of clusters increases
when the value of the index is closer to 1.
The index was determined for different values of k. The cluster package in the R
program was used to compute the silhouette width, using the “silhouette” function.
Figure 1 shows the values of the silhouette width index. The graph shows that 18
clusters would be the most appropriate. Figure 2 is a sample of how the product
groups would look if they were three only clusters.
Additionally, it is necessary to choose a clustering algorithm that satisfies the
requirements. A technique that can handle mixed numeric and categorical data is
k-medoids. Using this technique, a set of representative observations or medoids can
be assigned to each cluster. After that, the remaining observations will be allocated
accordingly to the closest distance to each medoid. According to [16], applying
Manufacturing Cost Prediction Through Data Mining 255

0.70
0.68
0.66
Silhouette Width Index

0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.50
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Number of Clusters

Fig. 1 Optimal number of clusters using silhouette width index

Fig. 2 Product family in clusters sample

this technique has advantages like handling outliers, clustering mixed data when a
dissimilarity matrix can be derived, and eliminating the assumptions about underlying
distributions. The two phases of the algorithm are called build and swap, and several
steps were followed using the respective formulas.
Lastly, one regression model was developed for each cluster, meaning that “k”
regression models were developed, “k” being the number of clusters. This was done
256 A. Díaz et al.

Fig. 3 Product family in clusters with cost model regression

with the output of the cluster analysis. Polynomial regression models were developed
using R code—function lm().
The regression model consisted of a dependent variable, which is the manufac-
turing cost (the outcome), and independent variables, which are the attributes or cost
drivers from the dataset previously collected. A 5% confidence level was assumed
to determine the significance of independent variables. The model would look like
this (1):

y = β + β1 + β22 + β33 + · · · + βnn + ε (1)

Once the model for each cluster is set, a scatter plot can be done. Figure 3 shows
how the product family in clusters would look with the cost model regression (only
for three clusters).

4 Conclusions

Throughout this research, it was possible to investigate the use of a clustering method
to predict the manufacturing cost of a product without the need of actually producing
it. As it was mentioned before, in a real production setting, a variety of products are
being elaborated simultaneously. Establishing one simple accurate estimation model
is challenging and would not resemble a real-life scenario. This led the authors to
group diverse products based on their design characteristics, type of manufacturing
Manufacturing Cost Prediction Through Data Mining 257

operation, among other features by dividing them into clusters until a sufficient
homogeneity within them was reached. Then, a cost estimation model was developed
for each cluster to predict the manufacturing cost of future products.
Since the dataset included mixed categorical and numerical variables and not all
clustering algorithms are compatible with this type of data, the use the k-medoids
clustering algorithm was decided, because of it was the best adapted to this kind of
data. Since all of the previous products could be represented as points in a multidi-
mensional space, it can be analyzed in which cluster a new product would fall and
then used the cluster-specific regression models, previously developed, to predict the
manufacturing cost of a new unique product.
Predictive costing is still at a very early stage and is a challenging endeavor. As
research continues and it evolves, it will lay foundations for properly understanding
and structuring manufacturing costs, underlining the relevant dependencies between
product characteristics and total cost.

References

1. Thomas, D., Kandaswamy, A.: Identifying high resource consumption areas of assembly-
centric manufacturing in the United States. J. Technol. Transf. 44(1), 264–311 (2019). https://
doi.org/10.1007/s10961-017-9577-9
2. Thomas, D.: Costs, benefits, and adoption of additive manufacturing: a supply chain perspec-
tive. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. 85(1), 1857–1876 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-
015-7973-6
3. Vogl, G.W., Weiss, B.A., Helu, M.J.: A review of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities and
best practices for manufacturing. J. Intell. Manuf. 30(1), 79–95 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/
s10845-016-1228-8
4. Kim, D.B.: An approach for composing predictive models from disparate knowledge sources
in smart manufacturing environments. J. Intell. Manuf. 30(4), 1999–2012 (2019). https://doi.
org/10.1007/s10845-017-1366-7
5. Homburg, C., Nasev, J., Plank, P.: The impact of cost allocation errors on price and product-mix
decisions. Rev. Quant. Financ. Acc. 51(2), 497–527 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-
017-0678-1
6. Etienne, A., Mirdamadi, S., Mohammadi, M., et al.: Cost engineering for variation management
during the product and process development. Int. J. Interact. Des. Manuf. (IJIDeM) 11(2),
289–300 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12008-016-0318-3
7. Li, X., Zhang, S., Huang, R., et al.: A survey of knowledge representation methods and appli-
cations in machining process planning. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. 98(9–12), 3041–3059
(2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-018-2433-8
8. Marini, D., Corney, J.R.: Process selection methodology for near net shape manufacturing. Int.
J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. 106(5–6), 1967–1987 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-019-
04561-w
9. Mondal, C., Giri, B.C. & Maiti, T.: Pricing and greening strategies for a dual-channel closed-
loop green supply chain. Flex. Serv. Manuf. J. 1(1), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10696-019-
09355-6
10. Ramadan, M., Al-Maimani, H., Noche, B.: RFID-enabled smart real-time manufacturing cost
tracking system. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. 89(1–4), 969–985 (2017). https://doi.org/10.
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258 A. Díaz et al.

11. Özbilen, Ş.K., Rende, K., Kılıçaslan, Y., et al.: Prediction of the resource-efficient potential of
Turkish manufacturing industry: a country-based study. Clean Technol. Environ. Policy 21(5),
1013–1037 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-019-01689-x
12. Sharma, N., Litoriya, R.: Incorporating data mining techniques on software cost
estimation: Validation and improvement. Int. J. Emerg. Technol. Adv. Eng. 2(3),
301–309 (2012). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313203898_Incorporating_data_
mining_techniques_on_software_cost_estimation_Validation_and_improvement
13. Tan, P.-N., Kumar, V., Steinbach, M.: Introduction to Data Mining. Pearson/Addison-Wesley,
Boston (2010)
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framework. J. Grid Comput. 1(1), 1–12 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10723-019-09503-0
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Discov. 31(2), 424–464 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10618-016-0480-z
16. Sakinc, E.: Manufacturing cost prediction in the presence of categorical and numeric
design attributes. Ph.d. Thesis. Auburn University.: (2016). https://etd.auburn.edu/bitstream/
handle/10415/5294/Manufacturing%20Cost%20Prediction%20in%20the%20Presence%
20of%20Categorical%20and%20Numeric%20Design%20Attributes.pdf?sequence=2&
isAllowed=y
Data Mining and Association Rules
to Determine Twitter Trends

Jesús Silva, Jesús Vargas, Domingo Natteri, Darío Flores,

Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, Bridy Ahumada, and Lesbia Valero

Abstract Opinion mining has been widely studied in the last decade due to its
great interest in the field of research and countless real-world applications. This
research proposes a system that combines association rules, generalization of rules,
and sentiment analysis to catalog and discover opinion trends in Twitter [1]. The
sentiment analysis is used to favor the generalization of the association rules. In
this sense, an initial set of 1.6 million tweets captured in an undirected way is first
summarized through text mining in an input set for the algorithms of rules and
sentiment analysis of 158,354 tweets. On this last group, easily interpretable standard
and generalized sets of rules are obtained about characters, which were revealed as
an interesting result of the system.

Keywords Opinions mining · Association rules · Sentiment analysis · Analysis of

trends · Unsupervised learning

J. Silva (B) · D. Natteri · D. Flores

Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Perú
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Natteri
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Vargas
Universidad de la Costa (CUC), Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
B. Ahumada
Corporación Universitaria minute de Dios. UNIMINUTO, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
L. Valero
Corporación Universitaria Latinoamericana, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 259
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_23
260 J. Silva et al.

1 Introduction

Data mining techniques are present in almost all study fields with which human
beings currently work [2]. There are certain problems in which these techniques
notably stand out, influenced by the new economic and social paradigms, where
social networks have taken a relevant role. Regarding social networks, the concepts
of trend analysis or opinion mining arise referring to data mining techniques that
are used for the analysis of opinions. It is a study topic that intends to understand or
analyze the behavior, activities, and opinions of, for example, consumers of a certain
product or users of a certain social network [3].
In this study, a novel unsupervised approach is proposed for the problem of trend
analysis and opinion mining whose base emerged from the combination of two well-
differentiated techniques within the scope of data mining: the association rules and
the opinion mining or sentiment analysis, although differentiating the supervised and
unsupervised ones.
These separate techniques have been widely studied in the literature, where associ-
ation rules are applied to summarize and discover knowledge from a large dataset, and
the sentiment analysis is a useful tool for analyzing the performance of a subjective
analysis about the related problems or domains. This research, therefore, proposes
to combine the three elements using the sentiment analysis to enrich the subsequent
process of obtaining association rules, with the purpose of discovering opinion pat-
terns, something that differs from the whole literature where the association rules are
applied to improve the subsequent step of sentiment analysis, polarizing textual enti-
ties, such as tweets in good, neutral, or bad classification without obtaining patterns
on those factors that imply the results, and their interpretation.
Therefore, the contribution of this study to the state of the art of the field of opinion
mining and the analysis of trends is the design of a system that can work with data
obtained from Twitter without filtering, for example, about a country or language
during a time period that could vary [4, 5]. On this data, the system will summarize
hundreds of thousands of tweets into an easily interpretable set of rules on that subject
or character that the analyst is interested in at a given time. Later, these rules can
be generalized and displayed according to the generated sentiments, going from an
unstructured dataset to very reduced sets of rules that represent feelings and trends,
for categorizing opinions about characters, which will be obtained by the system in
an undirected way.
Starting from a large set of tweets, the proposed system first cleans the data and
makes a selection of samples based on the location of relevant people. Then, the
system parallelly polarizes the terms of the tweets and applies association rules to
combine the sentiment and polarization rules in a hierarchical approach, offering a
cloud of terms for the same character with patterns and opinion trends, and a set of
general rules that offer a higher level of information about those opinion trends.
Data Mining and Association Rules to Determine Twitter Trends 261

2 Method

This section presents the proposed method.

2.1 Pre-processing

Considering the nature and quantity of the addressed data where practically each
tweet contains some elements that make it totally different from the others, a previous
stage of data pre-processing is strictly necessary. The chosen techniques are the
following:
1. Removal of empty words in English, adding the word via, which is considered
empty in the field that concerns the study [6].
2. Removal of links, punctuation marks, non-alphanumeric characters, and missing
values (empty tweets) [7].
3. Uncommon terms. Words whose frequency of appearance is less than 28 occur-
rences are removed, in addition to those words that, despite having more than
28 occurrences, have a length greater than 12 letters. The latter will indicate that
they come from hashtags or union of words that represent no real meaning or
importance to the process [8].
4. Extraction of named entities. The instance selection process considered only
those tweets related to people. It was completed by using the Name Entity Recog-
nition [7] technique (NER) proposed by Stanford University and included in the
coreNLP proposed by Kamatkar et al. [9] at the same university. After execut-
ing the NER process, quite acceptable results are obtained with 158,354 tweets
referring to people. On this set of tweets, the previous pre-processing techniques
are applied again to refine the process.
5. Shift to lower case: The whole content is shifted to lowercase letters for avoiding
discordances. Although the shift to lower case is one of the main steps in text
mining, in this case, it is applied after the NER process, as the use of capital
letters in proper names facilitates and improves the results of the process.
6. 2 g: It is possible to obtain names composed of two terms whose general analysis
is much more interesting and avoids the appearance of redundant association
rules. The purpose is to relate or merge terms such as donald followed by trump
into a single word of the donaldtrump type. To avoid unnecessary work, a study
is used to discern if this premise of compound names is correct and if their
frequencies are useful. The study of the most common bigrams confirms that
there are certain words whose union will avoid redundancy in the rules. After
identifying these terms, the union is carried out by means of an iterative process.
On the other hand, the analysis provides information about the mastery of data
and conversations in the social network for guiding the processes of obtaining
subsequent information [10].
262 J. Silva et al.

7. Finally, the tweets are transformed into transactions, where each word will be an
item.
The steaming process was avoided due to the fact that it will lose interpretability
in subsequent processes.

2.2 Obtaining Association Rules

The data mining stage was carried out through association rules using the Apriori
algorithm [11] with support values of 0.0015 and 0.00015 along with a confidence
value of 0.8. In this way, a considerable number of rules was obtained, which was
cohesive and strong.

2.3 Polarization of Terms Based on Sentiments

The objective of analyzing feelings in this study is to polarize the association rules that
were obtained in the previous stage of the method according to the terms that appear
in the antecedent or consequent. An iterative process was proposed for crossing each
tweet obtaining the feeling associated to each word in that tweet. For this objective,
the syuzhet package [12] was applied, created by the laboratory of literature of
Nebraska which uses the sentiment dictionary considering the eight most extended
basic emotions proposed by Abascal-Mena et al. [13]. A data structure is generated
by this method showing the occurrences for each word related to each meaning.
Some of these words and their sentiments are shown in Fig. 1.

2.4 Generalization of Rules Based on Sentiments

The last step of the method is combining the view stage for obtaining of rules and the
polarization of feelings. One of the most radical differences between the study and
the literature is the use of sentiments to improve the process of obtaining association
rules. For this purpose, the sentiments associated to the terms are used to substitute
those terms in the antecedents of the association rules generated as long as they are
not a proper name. Association rules are obtained about people on Twitter and their
feelings associated with the help it represents for interpreting data and results on a
particular character, going from rules of the type {ignored, rape} → {donaldtrump} to
rules of the type {anger} → {donaldtrump}, since both the term ignored and rape are
associated according to the stage of polarization to the feeling anger. Some examples
of how words are generalized to later obtain rules according to those feelings can be
seen in Fig. 2.
Data Mining and Association Rules to Determine Twitter Trends 263

Fig. 1 Words related to sentiments

Fig. 2 Generalization of words by sentiment

264 J. Silva et al.

The contribution of this study to the state of the art of opinion mining is marked
at this point, where thousands of tweets on a character can be summarized in a very
simple way. It is achieved through these rules generalized by sentiments that are
very strong and allow to analyze the rules obtained in other stages, based on the
feelings that the terms evoke, and that could even be considered closer to the human
interpretation of an opinion trend.

3 Experimentation

This section presents the data collection process and the obtained results.

3.1 Data Collection

The power of the data obtained from Twitter in the opinion mining is closely linked
to the definition given by Dehkharghani et al. [14] on the concept of opinion, where
it is identified as a combination formed by entity, issuer, aspect, orientation, and
temporal moment. If a parallel line is drawn between this definition and the anatomy
of a tweet, they seem to be the same elements, which can be condensed as:
• Entity: On which the tweet is issued, for example, a mark.
• Emitter: User that emits the tweet.
• Aspect: What is valued about the tweet.
• Orientation: An emitted tweet can be of support or anger, among others.
• Time: Date and time of the tweet.
In order to obtain a data sample of a sufficient size, a Python crawler was imple-
mented for obtaining, processing, and storing the tweets directly from the Twitter
search engine, thus obviating the restrictions imposed by the Twitter API. The only
filtering is on tweets issued in the US and English language during the first six months
of 2016. At the end of the data collection process, 1.6M tweets were obtained. The
native connections between R and Mongo do not allow the loading of this large vol-
ume of data, so a distributed approach based on Spark [15] was used to achieve its
loading.

4 Results and Discussion

The mining of association rules on the input database provided 35,985 rules with
0.0015 support and 3,258,457 rules with 0.00015. In this set of rules, which according
to the volume of tweets can be considered a random sample of social network activity
in the United States for 6 months, interesting rules can be found about some people,
Data Mining and Association Rules to Determine Twitter Trends 265

among other entities, although the validation of the model and the usefulness of
the association rules as a descriptive method in opinions mining will be performed
according to two of the characters revealed by the process of exploratory analysis:
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
The same study can be applied to other names, not necessarily belonging to the
world of politics, so the power of the model is confirmed. At the end of the process of
filtering and removing redundant rules, a set of 204 rules were obtained for Donald
Trump and 104 rules for Hillary Clinton.

4.1 Donald Trump

A set of 204 rules were generated for Donald Trump. After studying them, some
interesting ones were summarized in Table 1.
In the chart above, a clear trend emerged when analyzing the first rules regarding
Trump’s politics on transgender people and their ability to serve in the US army.
Specifically, the rule {bans, serving, transgender} → {donaldtrump} let us know
that the current president clearly stated that he would prohibit the service of these
people in the army, something that was confirmed in 2017.
Another interesting trend can be marked by the following two rules, {ignored,
rape} → {donaldtrump} and {child, rape} → {donaldtrump}, that allowed to obtain,
through data mining, a trend on Twitter during the first half of 2016, indicating that
the candidate was involved in certain scandals related to violations or not condemning
them. Finally, an interesting rule can be found in {caucus, lead} → {donaldtrump}
which confirms the proven fact that all the polls considered this candidate as a leader
in the caucus where the parties decide the candidate to present in the elections [16].
Since the paper intends to represent and obtain trends on Twitter, Fig. 3 shows a
word cloud for representing the size of the most used words in co-occurrence with
the objective. In this way, all the information of the rules about Trump is condensed
into one graph.

Table 1 Interesting rules

Antecedent Sop Conf Lift
about Donald Trump
{child, rape} 3.8e04 0.85 75.57
{caucus, lead} 8.6e05 0.93 85.69
{ignored, rape} 9.7e05 0.99 90.45
{military, people, trans} 9.3e05 0.91 79.39
{bans, serving, trans} 8.1e05 0.81 90.15
266 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 3 Word cloud of the

rules for Donald Trump

Table 2 Interesting rules

Antecedent Sop Conf Lift
about Hillary Clinton
{musician, support} 3.14e04 0.98 322.74
{musician, squad} 3.14e04 0.99 89.70
{emails, republicans} 1.35e04 1 323.25
{attack, emails} 1.39e04 0.97 423.98

4.2 Hillary Clinton

A total of 104 association rules were obtained for Hillary Clinton. Studying the set
of rules obtained, Table 2 shows some of the most interesting rules.
Two trends and opinion groups are defined for Hillary Clinton-related tweets when
interpreting with a group-based approach:
1. The commitment of the show business with the candidate: The first rules refer to
the support received by the candidate from great stars of the show business [17].
2. The email scandal: The last two rules refer to the scandal of the filtered emails
and their use as an attack.
The graph of labels on the rules built for this case is shown in Fig. 4.

4.3 Generalized Interpretation Based on Sentiments

After the sentiment analysis process, every word is associated to a major sentiment
which generalizes it. To do this, the tweets referring to characters are filtered, and
the worlds in these tweets are substituted by the general feeling associated with each
Data Mining and Association Rules to Determine Twitter Trends 267

Fig. 4 Word cloud of the

rules for Hillary Clinton

of them. Subsequently, the association rules on this dataset are obtained again. The
results for Donald Trump are given in Table 3 while the results for Hillary Clinton
are given in Table 4.
As a result of the rules, a ranking of sentiments is obtained to identify the studied
characters. The first result that comes to light is that the prevalent sentiments in
Twitter are of support and endorsement against both candidates over any other kind
of sentiment. A very interesting result is the interpretation of the anger feeling, of
which, 58% of the tweets about Hillary Clinton are related to this feeling. On the
other hand, Trump´s tweets represent 15% less anger feeling, reason why it seems
that American society was more against Hillary Clinton than Trump, in spite of what
was perceived in Europe. This was later confirmed by the Republican’s victory.

Table 3 Sentiment rules

Antecedent Sop Conf Lift
about Donald Trump
{trust} 0.98578452 1 1
{surprise} 0.63125874 1 1
{anticipation} 0.39989875 1 1
{anger} 0.33025874 1 1
{fear} 0.28754875 1 1
{sadness} 0.21025896 1 1
{disgust} 0.09856874 1 1
{joy} 0.09856245 1 1
268 J. Silva et al.

Table 4 Sentiment rules

Antecedent Sop Conf Lift
about Hillary Clinton
{trust} 0.94852147 1 1
{anger} 0.56248422 1 1
{fear} 0.50124785 1 1
{anticipation} 0.40258974 1 1
{surprise} 0.29852348 1 1
{disgust} 0.10128965 1 1
{sadness} 0.10058456 1 1
{joy} 0.08982141 1 1

5 Conclusions

The research developed a model for obtaining behavior patterns on Twitter, which can
be classified as trend and that led to an approach based on data streaming. The results
can be even used to categorize the opinions and feelings of people about a character
in real time. The power of undirected methods and their ease of interpretation, which
is very close to natural language, are confirmed in similar problems despite the
current hegemony of directed methods. A similar result to that obtained with the
association rules can be obtained by means of a study of frequencies, but it would be
computationally expensive because of the amount of data. It would also eliminate, to a
certain extent, the undirected component offered by the rules, making the researchers
decide about the words to obtain the relations with other words, and finally, they
would offer different metrics to those that can be obtained from algorithms such as
Apriori.

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Jayor2: A Proposal of Information
Management System for Command
and Control Centers (C3i2) in the Armed
Forces

Jaime Mayorga, Robert Vargas Borbúa, Rolando P. Reyes Ch.,

and Tatiana Gualotuña

Abstract Usually, the Armed Forces in the world have as their mission: the defense
and security of their countries. Currently, there are various threats such as hybrid wars
that require the establishment of new and innovative defense methods and systems
that allow improving the effectiveness of the planning and decision-making processes
of military operations. The objective of this study is to propose the implementation of
an information management system for command and control systems (C3i2). The
Kimball methodology is used for the construction of a data warehouse and Crisp-
DM to build data mining. The results are prominent. Decision trees with an accuracy
of 83.22 and 49.83% are obtained. The model could work more efficiently and
effectively if the information is obtained in real-time for more accurate projections.

Keywords Information systems · Data mining · Business intelligence · Armed

Forces · Military operations

1 Introduction

At present, all the Armed Forces in the world have as a mission the defense and
security of the country against different existing threats. Among these threats are
countless types of wars that currently exist (e.g., asymmetric, civil, conventional,
no conventional, hybrid, etc.). The most complex threat due to its way of executing

J. Mayorga (B) · R. V. Borbúa · R. P. Reyes Ch. · T. Gualotuña

Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
R. P. Reyes Ch.
e-mail: [email protected]
T. Gualotuña
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Mayorga
Av. del Progreso, Sector Santa Clara, USA

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 271
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_24
272 J. Mayorga et al.

is the so-called hybrid war that is conceived between a conventional army against
an insurgent force. Due to its way of being an axis, it becomes difficult for the
conventional army to make decisions [1].
To combat these and other threats, the Armed Forces carry out missions that are
carried out by the maneuvering units under the command of a supreme command,
which maintains permanent control of the military operations that are carried out in
the national territory [2]. Communication is direct and is maintained from the maneu-
ver units inside and towards the supreme command. Normally the communication is
done through an internal communication network and an information system called
C3i21 (in other cases C4iVR) [3]. This system normally employs a flat database,
which is fed manually by military units, sometimes resulting in insignificant and
disorganized information to generate reports that allow the high command of the
supreme command, to have sufficient inputs for the decision-making; Jayor2 offers
a new way to get and organize and analyze the data.
This gives us a clear idea that information systems (e.g., C3i2, C4iVR, etc.) require
information management systems that allow analyzing the dynamics of the environ-
ment and above all to predict the emergence of new threats to the security of the
states, such as insurgent forces that are part of drug trafficking, organized crime and
terrorism [4]. It is for this reason that we have set out to establish an implementation
model of an Information Management System based on data warehouse and datamin-
ing to incorporate it into any military information system such as C3i2, C4iVR, etc.
The proposed model applies several models such as Hephaestus, Inmon, Kimball for
the data warehouse aspect and models such as decision trees, Naive Bayes, and Lin-
ear Regression for the data mining aspect. With this implementation, it is expected
to allow specialized military intelligence agencies to carry out their actions, as well
as to support the supreme command in decision-making to conduct operations2 [3].
The results with prominent, since the application of data mining with decision trees,
achieved an accuracy of 83.22 and 49.83%.
This article is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the activities carried
out by the Armed Forces (especially Latin-Americans) and the proposals of several
authors about the implementation of information management systems in command
and control systems (C3i2 or C4iVR). The implementation methodology of our pro-
posal called “Jayor2” is described in Sect. 3. Section 4 indicates the implementation
execution. The results are mentioned in Sect. 5. Conclusions and discussion described
in Sect. 6.

2 Background

The majority of the Armed Forces in the world maintain diverse, independent and
unrelated computer systems [2]. Very limited is the information that is known about

1 Command, control, communications, intelligence and computer systems of the Ecuadorian armed

forces joint command.

2 Strategic,operational and tactical level.
Jayor2: A Proposal of Information Management System … 273

the architecture of the informal systems of each Armed Forces due to its national
security character [5]. However, it is clear that there can be a variety of computer
systems within each Armed Forces. This diversity and independence may be due to
several factors such as (1) revolution and impact of new emerging technologies in
military matters that require a change in vision, structure, and capacity to guarantee
Armed Forces that can respond to the challenges of the future; and (2) its conception
according to the need and decisions of each force at the time, which has generated a
disorderly growth [3].
This worsens even more when the Armed Forces computer systems must provide
information to a command and control system for the decision-making of the high
command in the operational field. This type of computer control and control sys-
tem is called for some Armed Forces as C3i2 (Command, control, communication,
intelligence, and research); or for other Armed Forces such as C4iVR (command,
control, communications, computing, intelligence, surveillance, and recognition),
etc. Regardless of their name, the concern is that these systems or platforms lack (in
most cases) information fed in real-time.
Regarding the Latin American command and control (C3i2) systems, authors
can say that most of these systems need a manual procedure to feed them with
information on the missions from the maneuver units. An operator is the one who
records the information in the database. This implies that the C3i2 command and
control systems would not have data analytics techniques implemented. Having as a
consequence that the planning of operations is not precise, and has flaws. Triggering
in the redundancy of operations with incipient results. In this way, it is generated that
the military process in decision-making is not effective.
It is for this reason that the Armed Forces of several countries have seen this
need; and thanks to their efforts, they have incorporated to their command and con-
trol systems (C3i2, C4iVR, etc.) countless Information Management Systems to
support their military operations, even many of these management systems have
been developed based on artificial intelligence (AI) [3].
This has been ratified by Hershey [5, 6] in his 2015 studies, he generated discrete
mathematical models for decision-making, applicable to anti-aircraft defense, cyber-
attacks and even ground surveys, supported by statistical models to combine varied
information. Likewise, Smallegnage [7] in his study, he emphasizes the use of Big
Data and AI for the planning of military operations, especially in operations with
hybrid wars, where there are scenarios with a large number of factors that must
participate in the planning of operations. Goztepe [8] and Hernandez [9] in their
studies they articulated weapons systems with threats or with automated surveillance
systems for border control in order to obtain more dynamic planning supported by
artificial intelligence. Russell [10] and Chmielewski [11] go beyond the proposals
of the other authors. Their studies are aimed at obtaining information in real-time
by incorporating the use of sensors, that is, the use of the Internet of Things (IoT)
and AI in order to improve the decision-making process [12]. Obtaining in this way
much more real, accurate, and timely information.
274 J. Mayorga et al.

The aforementioned investigations highlight the importance of information sys-

tems in the military field; Information Management Systems that support decision-
making in military operations being much more important. This is easily evident
when modern and current wars appear in a changing and highly volatile environ-
ment. Authors talk about the case of hybrid wars. That is why it becomes necessary
to determine an adequate Information Management Systems to generate new pos-
sibilities and decisions in order to quickly neutralize the changing threats to better
contribute to the security and defense of the states [3].
With this background and motivation, authors have set ourselves the objective,
to establish a model to implement an Information Management System that we have
called Jayor2, which is based on data warehouse and datamining models to incorpo-
rate it into any military command and control system such as C3i2, C4iVR, etc. The
proposed model was conceived as a prototype taking into account the problems nor-
mally needed by the Armed Forces, especially in Latin America in terms of security
in their land, sea, air, and cyberspace spaces.

3 Methodology

In order to achieve the proposed objective, we have developed a methodology that will
allow us to elaborate our implementation model called “Jayor2” for an Information
Management System based on data warehouse and datamining for the military field,
as shown in the following Fig. 1.
For the development of the data warehouse, we looked for methodologies that are
widely used such as Hephaestus, Inmon, Kimball. However, after an analysis of its
use and employment, architecture, flexibility, and cost; it was determined that the
Kimball3 the methodology would be used for our implementation model [13]. The
use of this methodology is justified by the simplicity of understanding of its model and
essentially by the treatment of information through dimensional modeling, physical
design and data extraction, transformation, and loading.

Datawarehouse
Data mining
Development

Hefesto, KDD-Process,
Inmon, Crisp-DM,
Kimball Semma

Fig. 1 Schematic model

3 Methodology designed by Ralph Kimball for the construction of a data warehouse.

Jayor2: A Proposal of Information Management System … 275

Likewise, the analysis of the methodologies used for data mining was carried
out, such as KDD-Process, Crisp-DM, and Semma. The analysis was based on the
methodology that allows a better understanding of the business, data selection, model-
ing, evaluation, implementation, number of phases, tools, and usefulness of method-
ologies. The methodology selected for our implementation model is Crisp-DM4 [14].
This methodology allows the possibility of adaptation with respect to the business,
that is, it allows the analysis of military operations where a constant evaluation is
required to obtain a predictive model.

4 Execution
4.1 Conception and Development of the Datawarehouse

For the development of the Data warehouse, it was necessary to define relevant
information of the organization. In the case of the Armed Forces, normally their
information comes from various tasks and missions. Many of these missions depend
on the constitutional objective offered by each state. Regarding the missions obtained
by the military operations, as an example, it is shown in the following Table 1.
We must emphasize that military operations have unique characteristics of each
Armed Forces in Latin America. Therefore, it is necessary that they disintegrate in
tactical actions, and these in turn, in tactical tasks. All depending on the level of
military forces that execute them. For this, the Armed Forces are formed by their
Land, Naval, and Air Forces, and these forces are in turn distributed into Commands
or Operational Bodies. In all cases, the units commit various resources such as per-
sonnel, material, and equipment for the development of operations. Likewise, each
operation takes place within a certain period of time within planning. At the end
of this period of operation, the results are provided that must be accounted for and
recorded in a database for future reference.

Table 1 Example of military operations

Strategic action Military operations
Surveillance of land, sea, air, and cyberspace Surveillance, exploration, land
reconnaissance, maritime interdiction—river
water and air spaces
Surveillance of security zones under the Protection of the terrestrial border security
control of the Armed Forces zones, maritime border
Protection and hydrocarbon security, national
mining and reserved areas
Land operations
Naval operations
Air operations

4 Cross industry standard process for data mining.

276 J. Mayorga et al.

Regarding the information necessary for an analysis of the execution of military

operations, five aspects have been necessary: (1) number of missions carried out by
military units throughout the country, (2) military unit that carries out the operation,
(3) amount of personnel, material and means used, (4) physical location where the
operations are executed, (5) start and end time of the operation (total execution time).
With the aforementioned aspects, an architecture was designed classifying the
data to chart a new database and select the most relevant information to obtain
better reports. To do this, the dimensional construction of a database was carried
out, which was divided into sections for better control and understanding, through
the use of tables of facts and dimensions. In the dimensions, the table of APER-
TURE_MISSION was established to house the data of the planning of the operation
and to know the use of the means, geographical location and temporality data. Instead,
the dimension: MISSION_TYPE establishes a link between planning and execution
results with the CLOSURE_MISSION dimension, where it is noted the register,
finding, and retention that the patrol does during the mission. All this in order to
record the relevant information that occurs during the operation. In total, eight fact
tables were raised, as shown in the following Fig. 2.
Based on the above, the physical design was carried out, with a simple interface
for entering information, enabling a server in the cloud for tests with 5 GB of mem-
ory. Users and passwords were created to enter the information in three operational
commands. The development of the database was done with Microsoft SQL Server
2017, the development environment was in Visual Studio 2017, for Business Intel-
ligence, Reporting Services and Power BI were used; RapidMiner will be used for
data mining.

Resources Retention
Mission_Type

Zone Aperture_Mission Closure_Mission Finding

Temporal Register

Fig. 2 Fact and dimension tables

Jayor2: A Proposal of Information Management System … 277

4.2 Data Mining

The primary objective of the use of data mining is to make reliable projections in
order to obtain relevant information on the development of military operations carried
out by each military unit. In this way, it is possible to determine the effectiveness and
efficiency of each operation. For this purpose, reports are generated for the analysis
that is of interest to the military command because they are necessary inputs for the
planning of new military operations.
However, the proposed data mining for military operations dealt with two criteria:
(1) in the generation of a decision model for the planning of operations, and (2) in the
prediction of patterns of military operations according to location geographical and
the type of mission carried out. The procedure for obtaining data lasted two months, in
six military units, obtaining a total of 1,968 military operations, in various provinces
and with a variety of results. The data was obtained through the use of a web interface
where it allowed to perform data exploration, verification (of the congruence) and
relevance of the information collected.
Once more solid data were obtained, extraction and loading was carried out for
the construction of reports with the Power BI tool,5 generating countless analysis
tables that provide a better perception of information for military commanders at all
hierarchical levels. Also, the RapidMiner6 tool was used for the construction and
testing of different models under three different techniques: Decision trees, Naive
Bayes7 and Linear Regression.

5 Results

After modeling the techniques for data projection, several results were determined
regarding military operations. The results are based on the three models selected
above. The first result is a function of the province (geographical location) and the
incidence of the results and the second results are a function of the type of military
operation and incidence of the findings. The following subsections detail these results.

5 It is a business analysis service from Microsoft, its objective is to provide interactive visualizations

and business intelligence capabilities.

6 Computer program for data analysis and mining.
7 Probabilistic classifier based on Bayes’ theorem, they are a special class of machine learning

classification algorithms.
278 J. Mayorga et al.

5.1 Province (Geographical Location) and Incidence

of Results

In order to obtain relevant information to guide the conception of the force to be

applied to a specific area considering the good use of resources (e.g., personnel,
time, etc.), a model was sought that allows to know these facts.
The data mining model based on Linear Regression was tested. However, it was
too elemental for the dynamics of military operations because it only shows the
relationship between two variables (weapons vs. ammunition). For example, when
there is a firearm finding, there is a greater chance of finding circumstance weapons
and less chance of finding ammunition of any caliber. For this reason, the application
of Naive Bayes model was tested, which allowed to determine the province with the
highest incidence of findings, making a simple distribution based on coefficients.
This model could be used for the allocation of personnel and resources. However,
this model did not yield suitable results in border provinces where elements that exist
in irregular or hybrid wars appear.
Finally, the decision tree model was applied. For the application of this model, the
transformation of the database was necessary in order to determine binary parameters
for the formulation of criteria. For example, if there is an operation that has had
weapon findings, it would be rated 1 as successful and 0 as unsuccessful. Likewise,
adjustments were made for the construction of decision trees, setting at least 1 size
and the level of confidence of the model > 75%. As a result of applying the model,
a decision tree is generated with an accuracy of 83.22%. The root node of the tree
generates the type of military operation that should be carried out, for example, in
order for a military operation to succeed, it will depend exclusively on the province
(geographical location) where it will be operated.

5.2 Military Operation and Incidence of Findings

As in the analysis carried out in point 5.1, the Linear and Naive Bayes Regression
models did not show a model that allows commanders to make valid projections for
decision-making. However, when performing modeling through decision trees, there
were better results, with assertiveness of 49.83%. The root node generates the type
of military operation and describes the criteria of choice by virtue of the province
(geographical location) and the result that is intended to be obtained, for example,
in a particular place, the military operation of CAMEX is what Best results offered.
Jayor2: A Proposal of Information Management System … 279

6 Conclusions and Discussion

The need to implement information management systems for command and control
centers (C3i2) is clear. These systems have become so important when making quick
and efficient decisions to maintain the security and defense of a country. That was
ratified by several authors [3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11]. However, all these studies have been
shown in a theoretical model and have not had evidence of the results they have had
in their implementation since, in our review of related works, the authors did not find
articles that put into practice their proposals or implement new proposals.
The proposed implementation for command and control centers (C3i2) consider-
ing a data mining model has allowed a better analysis of the information obtained so
that future military decisions could be solved in a way more technical This allows the
operational units and even the levels of operational and strategic decision to achieve
a better prediction of the threats existing in the states.
While it is true that data mining and the use of a data warehouse help in the
transformation of data to information and thereby gain knowledge. The authors see
that these techniques are incipient at the time of obtaining predictions. Possibly, the
use of these two techniques is sufficient at the time of use for military matters because
it is very difficult to predict a “war” or a threat with a limited number of variables
and without proper training to obtain artificial intelligent agents that use Cognitive
reasoning structures valid for defense and security.

Future Works
It is intended in a future study to replicate the same implementation using other AI
techniques based on deep learning or machine learning. Likewise, IoT-based sensors
will be used to obtain real information and obtain better predictions.

References

1. Rodríguez, F.: Nuevos tipos de guerra: Lecciones a considerar, guerra justa, asimétrica,
preventiva y de baja intensidad. Revista de Estudios Transfronterizos, 135–157 (2006)
2. Von Clausewitz, K.: De la guerra, La esfera de los libros (1972)
3. Galizia, R.C.: El sistema C3I2 en la era de la información (2014)
4. Ribeiro, D.: El dilema de América Latina: estructuras del poder y fuerzas insurgentes, Siglo
xxi (1978)
5. Hershey, P.: Umberger, B.: Adaptable mission analysis and decision system. In: 10th System
of Systems Engineering Conference (SoSE), pp. 20–21 (2015)
6. Umberger, B., Hershey, P.: Analytics and simulation for decision support: good results achieved
by teaming the two. IEEE Syst., Man, Cybern. Mag. 4(1), 32–40 (2018)
7. Smallegnage, B.H.: Big data and artificial intelligence for decision making. In: Dutch Position
Paper NATO-OTAN (2017)
8. Goztepe, K.: New directions in military and security studies: artificial intelligence and military
decision making process. Int. J. Inf. Secur. Sci. 4(2), 69–80 (2015)
9. Hernandez, A.S.: Mission engineering and analysis: innovations in the military decision making
process. In: Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management (ASEM) 2017
International Annual Conference (2017)
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10. Russell, S.: The internet of battlefield things: the next generation of command, control,
communications and intelligence (C3I) decision-making. In: IEEE Military Communications
Conference (MILCOM) (2018)
11. Chmielewski, F.D.: Military and crisis management decision support tools for situation aware-
ness development using sensor data fusion. In: International Conference on Information
Systems Architecture and Technology (2018)
12. Reyes, C.R.P., Vaca, H.P., Calderón, M.P., Montoya, L., Aguilar, W.G.: MilNova: an approach
to the IoT solution based on model-driven engineering for the military health monitoring.
In: 2017 CHILEAN Conference on Electrical, Electronics Engineering, Information and
Communication Technologies (CHILECON) (2017)
13. Kimball, R.R.: The Data Warehouse Lifecycle Toolkit. Wiley (2008)
Leadership and e-Leadership
Military Training Mission in Iraq:
An Exploratory Case Study Research

João Reis, Bruno Reis, Marta Nowakowska, and Aneta Kazanecka

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate how military training is being
conducted by NATO coalition forces in Iraq. Thus, the intent of this paper is to dis-
cuss the implications of existing misalignments between the military forces that are
providing the training and those receiving it. To that end, we have used an exploratory
case study research, which included multiple sources of data collection for corrobo-
ration and triangulation purposes. The results that emerged from the content analysis
showed two types of outcomes that may be relevant to improve the military training
in Iraq. The first outcome is identified as the intangible actions, which were mainly
focused on social relations, with the intent of narrowing the cultural gap between
the international coalition and Iraqi forces. Without surprising, a second outcome is
identified as tangible actions, which were associated with training programs and the
establishment of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) relevant to small and
medium military units. Future research should focus on programs of “training the
trainers” in order to develop long-term teaching and move forward with sustainable
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).

Keywords NATO · Iraq · Social relations · Training program · Tactics ·

Techniques · Procedures

J. Reis (B)
Department of Military Science, Military Academy, CINAMIL/CISD, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]
B. Reis
Military Academy, Portuguese Army, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Nowakowska · A. Kazanecka
Military Academy of Land Forces, 51-147 Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
A. Kazanecka
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 283
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_25
284 J. Reis et al.

1 Introduction

As cities around the world are getting bigger and bigger and the world population
is growing steadily, consequently, megacities (10 million +) are rising at a fast pace
[1]. This rapid urbanization is also threatening existing social ecosystems due to
increased urban hazards such as air pollution [2], gender-based violence [3], just to
name a few. Therefore, overcrowded urban areas, together with geopolitical interests,
in particular West Asia, are expected to remain a breeding ground for conflict. This
is even more dramatic because, in highly populated areas, military activities become
more complex, increasing the risks of endangering the lives of thousands of innocent
citizens. For a safe and secure environment in these regions, a good first step is
to build strong and committed defense and security forces. In that regard, the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been making efforts in stabilizing countries
such as Afghanistan and Iraq [4, 5] by conducting training activities to develop long-
term skills for its military and police forces [6, 7]. To the best of our knowledge,
the existing literature lacks research on topics as military training. Exemplifying,
we conducted a fast search on Scopus database, on December 9th, 2019, using the
keywords “military training” AND “Iraq” and we found 35 manuscripts; moreover,
we increased the span to “training” AND “Iraq” and we found 1,183 documents. Most
part of the latter documents focused on medicine (28.3%), engineering (17.9%) and a
few percentages of social sciences (14.3%). Therefore, our objective is to fill that gap
in the literature, by conducting exploratory research to discuss the implications from
possible misalignments between the military forces that are providing training in Iraq,
and those who are receiving it. We believe this research can provide a contribution
to military science, which is under the scope of the social sciences field but also
provides guidelines to practitioners, in order to improve their training strategies.
The next section of this paper provides a brief literature review to explore the
elementary conceptual terms; the next section describes the research methodol-
ogy, explaining the sources of data collection, data analysis, and issues related
to the research validity and reliability; is followed by the results section, which
presents the summary of the content analysis; finally, the conclusions that focus on
the contributions to the theory and practice, limitations and perspectives for future
research.

2 Literature Review

There is no precise census in Iraq, the only and best available data on its population
dating from 1947 [8]. However, due to population growth, it is estimated that the
capital will reach 10 million inhabitants in a few years. The relevance of the training
is mainly focused on military operations in urban areas, which were the worst-case
scenarios. The above argument is in line with former strategists such as Tzu [9], who
stated that the worst policy is to attack cities. Even in today’s scenarios, it is quite
Military Training Mission in Iraq: An Exploratory … 285

clear that urban warfare causes more prejudice to society than in rural areas, see,
for example, the high number of civilian casualties. However, some practices have
improving these concerns, such as (1) the high accuracy of military weaponry, which
has reduced the risk of civilian causalities; or (2) the military training, which, for
example, helps soldiers acquire sufficient social skills to operate in highly populated
areas.
In Petraeus’s [10] remarks, the early stages of the Iraq war, the liberation army
was racing against the clock, because of the extremely high expectations of the Iraqi
people, but, in our view, also because of political objectives, which military forces
were pressured to achieve in short time frames. On the other hand, patience, empathy,
and humility are important factors that may be considered in the ISF’s training [11]
and therefore it is not in line with hasty decisions. So, it is important to bear in
mind that conflicts occur between nations of different cultures [12] and the potential
conflict increases with cultures as diverse as those in the Middle East and the West
[13]. In fact, cultural awareness is one of the key issues to get more effective training,
but also to share experiences between NATO and Iraqi leaders about human rights
[14] and gender integration issues [15], just to name a few topics.
Security force assistance (SFA)—training, advising and equipping allied mili-
taries—is an increasingly common US response to threats emanating from weak
states [16]. Reinforcing the previous argument, the relevance of training is also well
noticeable by the US Army, which has invested in the first and second brigades
of the first Infantry Division to train foreign forces including the Iraq forces [17].
The current NATO Mission in Iraq (NMI) is a non-combat training and capacity-
building mission that is conducted with full respect for Iraq’s sovereignty and ter-
ritorial integrity [18]. Recently, the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met
with Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, and highlighted that NATO’s assistance
on training Iraqi forces is a key tool in fighting terrorism [19]. Approximately 500
civilian and military personal are attached to the NMI with the bulk assigned to the
greater Baghdad area and to the Iraqi military’s Camp Taji base and Besmayah range
complex, where most of NMI’s training activities take place [20, 21]. The invest-
ment made so far is in line with political leaders in America and military leaders in
Iraq, which have repeatedly emphasized the importance of building up Iraqi security
forces as foundation for the rule of law, economic progress, and political stability
[22]. Therefore, the ISF is critical to the creation of a legitimate government in Iraq,
and to establishing the stability and security vital to Iraq’s development [23].

3 Methodology

This paper uses a qualitative and exploratory case study research that tries to explain
a phenomenon for which there is little data [24]. The field work was carried out in the
light infantry brigade “Rey Alfonso XIII” of the Spanish legion, in Almeria, Spain,
for two months. We selected the Spanish legion because of their experience in the
US-led Operation Inherent Resolve and in the NMI, which aimed to train the Iraqi
286 J. Reis et al.

Security Forces (ISF). Due to the nature of the topic to be addressed, we decided to
collect the data in a safe and secure environment, otherwise, the researchers would
have to move to a war zone. The data collection consisted of a primary source,
semi-structured interviews [25], and secondary sources, direct observation [26] and
documental analysis [27]. Using multiple data collection sources enhanced triangu-
lation and corroboration, which helps to minimize misrepresentation that may exist
when the collection comes from a single source [27].
We started the research with exploratory interviews, this process proved to be
useful to find guidance and to help designing the questionnaire [28] of the formal
interviews ahead. Once we received authorization to conduct the formal interviews,
we followed a strategy known as convenient and snowball sampling [29]. However,
we placed a restriction, only highly knowledgeable informants, who were able to
view the phenomenon from different perspectives were chosen, according to differ-
ent functional areas and different levels of responsibility [30]. The semi-structured
interviews were conducted between February 21st to April 5th of 2019, at the base
Alvarez de Sotomayor in Almeria, Spain, and each interview lasted between 30 and
60 min. The sample consisted of 17 interviews, which was very useful for the topic
we proposed to study. The last two interviews did not lead to relevant and distinct
ideas from the previous ones, which led us to think that eventually, we have reached
theoretical saturation [31].
The direct observations consisted of collecting field notes during the fieldwork,
which were recorded in informal environments [26]. Those notes contained the
respondents’ reactions and expressions to certain types of questions, as well as infor-
mal interactions during the training sessions in the field, but also sketches and pho-
tographs. That is, for two months the researcher was constantly on the lookout for
details and recorded all the interactions with the military in pre- and post-deployment.
Usually, the direct observations answered the following questions: who? said what?
when? where? and why? To corroborate the previous data, we also used official doc-
uments provided by the Spanish military who were on a mission in Iraq and consisted
of manuals and standing instructions used during the training operations.
After data were collected, it was time to analyze it according to the qualitative
content analysis technique [32, 33]. In order to systematically analyze the content,
we have also used a software known as NVivo 11 to easily identify emerging patterns
and ideas [34].
To increase the validity and reliability of the paper [27], after the second author
has collected and analyzed the data according to the content analysis technique, the
first author reviewed the entire methodological process. The latter also wrote the
manuscript according to a logical and chronological sequence of the events. The
third and fourth authors reviewed the entire article, in particular the methodological
process. Additionally, and in order to avoid misinterpretation, all the interviews were
recorded with the permission of the informants and subsequently transcribed. The
transcripts were then sent to the informants so that they could review and comment
on the text to confirm that the text truly reflected its original meaning. Finally, to
make the methodological process more consistent, we made an interview protocol
Military Training Mission in Iraq: An Exploratory … 287

so that all interviews followed a guideline, but also recorded all observations in a
diary, where all the informal conversations were documented, as well as pre- and
post-deployment activities.

4 Findings

This section presents the results of the case research. It is divided into three
subsections: intangible and tangible actions, and the house of training.

4.1 Intangible Actions

Intangible actions have been identified as all activities that are not objective or are
difficult to measure, such as social empathy, discipline, etc. Whenever Spanish train-
ers tried to optimize intangible actions, they faced some challenges in dealing with
the heterogeneity and the nature of the force.
The heterogeneity of the force was normally associated to cultural, ethnical and
religious differences. Some of these aspects are well-identified in the literature, for
instance, Gaub [7] states that cultural differences between an Arab and Western
military force are hampering the mission. Moreover, variables such as illiteracy, lan-
guage barriers, and professional gaps turned the training mission more demanding.
For instance, according to some respondents, the former Iraqi Army officers used to
be more disciplined than the new assigned, which were less motivated. The afore-
mentioned gap was partially explained by the Spanish legionnaires, as they argued
the former officers from Saddam’s army felt more committed to their country and the
Iraq society. However, the respondents also pointed out that commitment does not
mean these officers had the required technical skills or tactical proficiency. Some of
the Iraqi officers used to fight during the war, but did not have the same standards as
the Western armies, which explains the need for additional training—in general, the
trainers kept in mind that the technical level of the Iraqi military was quite low. Fur-
thermore, the respondents also reported some relevant issues as the need to motivate
the Iraqi military for training. Motivating the military personnel could be achieved
by a variety of ways, some examples are provided below: (1) using games to stim-
ulate competition was a good method to enhance the Iraqi soldiers commitment, as
they were very competitive and proud of each other when succeeding in tasks; (2)
another method was to turn the training more practical, by avoiding PowerPoint pre-
sentations or theoretical classes; (3) for some other respondents the ability to create
a strong social bond with their Iraqi counterpart was very relevant, and (4) leading
by example was a central issue, since Iraqi soldiers were more interested to follow
examples than orders.
The latter challenge was more critical since the nature of the force was related
to corruption within the Iraqi leadership in addition to the low capability to lead.
288 J. Reis et al.

The leadership issue was twofold, the Iraqi officers attained their position by paying
for a promotion or by having strong relations with a particular political group (i.e.,
nepotism), rather than for their military competencies. These last issues undermined
the coalition efforts in achieving a stable and peaceful environment.

4.2 Tangible Actions

The tangible actions have been identified as all activities that can be measured, such as
technical-tactical skills to overcome obstacles in urban areas, impacts on a shooting
range, etc. Regarding these actions, we identified some challenges that needed to be
mitigated with the measures adopted by the forces of the international coalition. The
first challenge was to control absenteeism through incentives that often related to the
use of military material during the training period, as the Iraqi military was more
interested in testing the military materials than receiving theoretical instructions.
An additional challenge is related to the simplification of technical-tactical pro-
cedures (i.e., back to basics), as the vast majority of the audience lacked technical
preparation. We found that trainers were used to train in complex environments,
using technical procedures, and technologically advanced military materials. When
these military personnel had to act in very severe training situations, where basic
training conditions are lacking, these situations added additional challenges to West-
ern forces. In that regard, when legionaries trained non-native-speaking counterparts
who had technical difficulties and who permanently feared their relatives’ life (i.e.,
these family members were alone at home on many occasions), we realized through
the legionnaires’ reactions that these conditions both technically and emotionally
difficult to manage. On the other hand, it is in this hostile environment that tangible
actions are linked to social competences because it is only possible to train in these
extreme situations if the international community stimulates relevant social relations
with their counterparts.
At the training level, we found another relevant category, which was the struggle
in unifying processes at NATO level, so that trainers always train the Iraqi military
in the same way and with the same procedures. To some extent, these arguments
are corroborated by the NATO-ATP-99, which is a NATO publication that describes
a common understanding approach to the planning and execution of a wide range
of urban operations. NATO-ATP-99 argues that it does not intend to direct Tactics,
Techniques, and Procedures (TTP), which is a national responsibility, while nations
are free to adapt the basic considerations presented to their specific training programs
and TTP as they judge appropriate [35]. Therefore, NATO should seek to provide
standardized training regardless of the nationality of the trainers. Succeeding in this
type of environment requires allies and partners building common understanding
problems, as well as common visualization of the mission and mutual confidence
and trust to operate together [11]. This category is even more relevant in modern
warfare that focuses on combat in urban areas, which requires mastering a high
number of procedures and control measures to avoid fratricide or civilian casualties.
Military Training Mission in Iraq: An Exploratory … 289

The guidelines for combat training in urban areas are too generic and just mentions
the objectives to be achieved in each training class. The underlining issue is that those
guidelines focus on the goals the force has to achieve, but not how to do it. In sum, a
possible solution is to develop basic manuals of procedures—standardization NATO
procedures—such as those that already exist for the counter-improved explosive
devices.

4.3 The House of Training

The house of training (Fig. 1) summarizes the main results of this research. We
argue that the NATO military trains the Iraqi security forces in an essential effort to
fight terrorism. The training mission and capacity-building have already reached 500
civilians and military personal to develop long-term and self-sufficient training with
the ultimate goal of achieving sustainable ISF’s. We have found two main roof covers,
identified as tangible and intangible actions. Each action has eight pillars, from the
intangible side of the house, we realized that the heterogeneity and nature of the force
add some challenges to training activities. If pillars such as cultural , ethnical, and

Fig. 1 The house of military training: Iraqi Security Forces versus Spanish Legion (NATO force)
290 J. Reis et al.

religious differences are undermining the mission, there are some relevant solutions
to motivate Iraqi forces: how to use games to stimulate competition or to make
training more practical by avoiding theory classes.
Another issue raised was to collect (tangible) actions to combat the absentee
and disinterest of the ISF. In this regard, the possible solutions have been to make
training more attractive by going back to basics—in other words—technical and
tactical procedures should be more understandable to Iraqi security forces. Jana
Kotorova, NATO deputy senior civilian in Iraq, recently highlighted this issue by
mentioning that NATO efforts have also established training models that fit Iraqi
requirements for reform of Iraq’s national security structures and institutions [36].
Overall, we also note that a lot of work must be done by the NATO side, as not all
trainers follow standardized procedures; therefore, it is necessary to systematize the
training following basic guidelines or manuals of procedures, accessible to the Iraqi
security forces. None of these goals can be achieved if the NATO military does not
develop proper social relations with the ISF’s—because social empathy fosters good
working relations [37–39], which may eventually allow military personnel around
the world to bridge the gap between themselves, including their counterparts.

5 Concluding Remarks

We found a few contributions in the literature about ISF training and how these
forces have evolved over time. To fill this gap in the literature, we thought it would
be helpful to provide a small contribution to key challenges, limitations, and possible
training solutions. Focusing on the latter, the theoretical opportunities to improve the
training are to enhance social relations between trainers and their counterparts. In
addition, more practical solutions focus on aspects of training standardization and
its adaptation to ISF’s technical-tactical capabilities.
This paper presents some limitations. First, we only took into consideration data
collected from the Spanish legion; the data from the ISF is missing due to difficulties
in accessing the study site. Second, the case study itself also presents some limi-
tations, as this paper has no perspectives of generalization, as the results focus on
a particular context and specific period of time. In other words, it is generalizable
to theoretical prepositions, but not to populations or universes [24]; therefore, these
results may not be the same when comparing, e.g., with the Afghan National Security
Forces (ANSF) training.
Future research should focus on programs of “training the trainers” in order to
develop long-term, self-sufficient training to achieve sustainable ISF in the future.
These programs are already ongoing, while few articles already focus on this theme,
such as Tigner [20], which argues that NATO’s train-the-trainer mission in Iraq is
making progress on several fronts, including ordnance disposal, equipment codifi-
cation, and cyber-awareness training. An alternative to the previous suggestion is
to investigate the possibility of gender inclusion training modules in the ISF, which
would be useful in a male-dominated context. The challenge of integrating women
Military Training Mission in Iraq: An Exploratory … 291

into military and security forces is a hot topic in Western culture [40, 41], so it is
likely that the international community and NATO will also try to promote a culture
of equality within the ISF—a good first step is to start on the educational/training
side.

Acknowledgements Special thanks to the Erasmus + program, which sponsored all the expenses
related to data collection in Almeria-Spain, and the Military Academy Research Center (CINAMIL),
which funded the conference proceeding. Last but not least, thanks to the Erasmus team of the Por-
tuguese Military Academy, which facilitated the entire process related to the institutional mobil-
ity and the anonymous respondents from the Spanish legion, who decisively contributed to the
publication of this paper.

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Cultural Awareness for Civilian-Military
Cooperation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Marta Nowakowska , João Reis , and Aneta Kazanecka

Abstract This research provides a brief overview of the context for the military’s
effort to build cultural capacity in the region of Sub-Saharan Africa. It goes on to
highlight the newest CIMIC doctrine about the importance of culture, the explanation
of idea and importance of cultural awareness and the cultural context of the region of
Sub-Saharan Africa with the ideology of post-tribal societies. It gives particular atten-
tion to the situation in Africa and misunderstanding as it goes with “westernization”
of peacekeeping operations.

Keywords Cultural awareness · Civil-military cooperation · Post-tribal society

1 Introduction

Over the past decade, so-called “clash of civilizations” was shaping policy at the high-
est levels and has stimulated and justified a range of strategic and tactical practices
within the military. As a consequence, problems that needed to be solved included
refugee settlement and evacuation, refugee camp management and civil assistance.
Gradually, the activities of civil-military cooperation became essential for the prepa-
ration and conduct of modern military operations. It became clear that to solve a
number of problems affecting both the civilian population and the military actors,
there is no one-sided decision [1]. Cultural knowledge becomes to be understood as
a warfighting strategy to extract influence over the context of conflict by controlling
“human terrain”. In 2007, the United States’ Department of Defence initiated the

M. Nowakowska (B) · A. Kazanecka

Military University of Land Forces, 51-147 Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
A. Kazanecka
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Reis
Department of Military Science, Military Academy, CINAMIL/CISD, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 293
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_26
294 M. Nowakowska et al.

Human Terrain System. It was the idea to provide combat commands personnel with
the human and cultural terrain expertise, so commanders could understand different
cultural environment [2].
The end of the Cold War and post 9/11 realities placed the understanding of
conflicts in cultural terms. In response to the military exigencies of Afghanistan and
Iraq exposed a “cultural knowledge gap” as Albro and Ivey described [1]. In the
twenty-first century, the military was tasked with operating in a domain covered by
humanitarian agencies and as a result to operate in a manner similar to a humanitarian
agency. Use of the culture for warfighting and the relevance of culture for effective
negotiations remains a potential challenge.
Contemporary conflicts have shown that establishing an agreement with the public
and its favorable attitude towards military operations determines the success of the
entire operation.
Changing social conditions and the need for environmental cooperation have
forced the military and civilian organizations to cooperate in order to achieve mission
success and solve a much wider range of issues. There are various situations when
the military must perform tasks that are not of a military nature. This puts even more
emphasis on civil-military relations and makes it necessary to analyze a relatively
new phenomenon in the army, i.e., civil-military cooperation (CIMIC). Coordination
and cooperation between commanders and the civilian environment—including the
society of a region, local and international authorities as well as non-governmental
organizations and agencies—is the broadly understood meaning of civil-military
cooperation [3]. According to the doctrine of NATO for CIMIC, the definition of
CIMIC is “The coordination and cooperation, in support of the mission, between
the NATO Commander and civil actors, including national population and local
authorities, as well as international, national and non-governmental organizations
and agencies” [4].
To understand civil-military cooperation it is essential to identify that civil
resources are increasingly more important for the success of the operation and
essentially depend on the appropriate level of coordination between the military
and unarmed actions.
The aim of the article is to theoretically approximate the issue of cultural awareness
in missions in culturally deprived areas. The latest NATO doctrine on civil-military
cooperation with an emphasis on cultural aspects has been analyzed. Freedom of
interpretation of the doctrine and the need to adapt it to the region of activity were
demonstrated. Particularly interesting is the Sub-Saharan African region, extremely
diversified even within one country. We cannot apply European or Middle or Far
East standards to the region of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Analysis of the literature on the subject showed a significant gap in research on
the cultural awareness of the area. In Western studies, cultural knowledge is limited
to the Middle East. Mostly local researchers deal with Sub-Saharan Africa, demon-
strating the dependence of peacekeeping missions on regional primarily economic
organizations [5], and demonstrating the inefficiency of supra-regional organizations
[6, 7].
Cultural Awareness for Civilian-Military Cooperation … 295

The literature reviews show the subject geared primarily to issues of humanitar-
ian aid in the African region, while there are no sufficient studies on the cultural
awareness of NATO soldiers participating in missions in the area [8]. There are
studies on military culture, but they deal with interaction and intercultural commu-
nication among soldiers within a single contingent, without the important issue of
communication with the local population [9].
This article is a theoretical introduction to research conducted among NATO
soldiers participating in peacekeeping missions in Sub-Saharan Africa to determine
their cultural awareness, deficiencies, and errors causing by “culture gap”.

2 CIMIC Doctrine Due to Cultural Awareness

We can find the specific descriptions in the doctrine about the importance of cultural
awareness: “cultural property protection as a subject of Cross-cutting topics (CCTs)
are a range of different topics which could affect the mission in a number of ways,
but which fall outside of the military’s primary responsibilities” [3]. This doctrine
highlights the importance of cultural awareness of every soldier serving as part of an
international mission.
We can also find the directions to act for the soldiers due to the subject of gender as
an integral part of the cultural awareness in the military: “during NATO operations,
it is important to obtain a clear understanding of the local culture, society and envi-
ronment (i.e., context) which are fundamentally influenced by the culture-specific
notions of gender” [4]. The doctrine emphasizes the promotion of gender equality
relevant to the operation. Understanding the local context need to be reiterated and
taking advice and recommendations from both women and men is one of the priority.
“The forces must understand the cultural context within which they are operating
and not simply apply their own norms, laws, and behavior. However, the distinction
between international and local law, human rights and culture must be analyzed and
addressed. Lessons learned indicate that a mixed-gender force enhances the sharing
of information and is instrumental in garnering trust and credibility” [4]. This part
shows how important it is to train soldiers, especially officers before going to cul-
turally different countries. The quoted text highlights the importance that should be
placed on cultural related training of soldiers and officers before a foreign deploy-
ment. The aim of such training is to bridge the gap between the soldiers’ own culture
and potentially many cultures that the soldier will come into contact during the period
of deployment.
A separate part of the doctrine informs us about cultural property protection (CP).
The history of the tenth century showed us the essence of the value of culture. The
destruction of heritage was recognized as a crime according to International Human-
itarian Law and ordered to protect all monuments, both material and immaterial.
“Culture plays an essential role in modern-day conflict as the identity of a group
of people is often connected to symbols reflected in buildings, monuments, and
296 M. Nowakowska et al.

artefacts. Damaging, destroying or plundering cultural heritage undermine a com-

munity’s social, ethnic or religious identity, cohesion, and resilience” [4]. Despite
the introduction of laws relating to the protection of cultural goods, the destruction
of heritage is still one of the elements of armed struggle, including terrorist attacks.
“Because of the importance of CP, not only to the local community but to mankind
in general, it needs protection” [4]. We have to remember that due to the IHL cultural
heritage is not only the material aspect of the culture but also the social and spiritual
one.
The last part of the doctrine is dedicated to the cultural awareness during missions
abroad informing us about the pre-mission training and the way it should be com-
municated: “effective CPP activities must start before an actual outbreak of armed
conflict. This is normally a responsibility of the host nation’s government. After the
outbreak of armed conflict, the military might be the first to arrive and be capable
of assisting in the protection of CP. The military has an essential task and responsi-
bility to protect cultural heritage in times of armed conflict when local government,
law enforcement or civilian organizations cannot take on this task which is aimed
at preserving the remains of previous generations. The integration of cultural prop-
erty protection into a military mission requires identifying cultural property within
engagement parameters but also looking at the significance of cultural property for
the identity and culture of the population” [4].
The question arises here, what is the relationship between CIMIC operation and
cultural awareness due to the region of Africa? Generally, it can be said that the
essence of CIMIC’s operation is allocating funds and taking part in activities, aimed
at supporting cooperation between the military authorities of a given operation and the
authorities (civil and military), population and organizations in the area of respon-
sibility. CIMIC is a point of contact with civil authorities, and its long-term task
is to help create lasting solutions in crisis situations. Civil-military cooperation is
intended to facilitate and support the planning and conduct of operational activities
of a military nature.
Due to NATO doctrine, CIMIC functional specialists normally provide expertise
in civil functional areas such as administration; humanitarian assistance; civil infras-
tructure; economy; commerce and cultural affairs [4]. The subject of Sub-Saharan
Africa and civilian-military cooperation was introduced by Onditi and Okoth [7].
They describe the regional mechanisms in the African Standby Forces’ due to the
CIMIC operation, but without the factor of culture.

3 Cultural Awareness

Cultural awareness becomes one of the most important factors determinate success
or failure during international peacekeeping operations. Nowadays, assailed as we
are by plenty of images, by permanent and rapid change, and by a strong need
for self-determination and identity, cultural competence has become of paramount
importance. It is difficult to overemphasize the importance of this competency in a
Cultural Awareness for Civilian-Military Cooperation … 297

period in which openness, optimism, and tolerance are placed under such strain all
over the world.
Culture is considered a central concept in the anthropology of culture, encompass-
ing the range of phenomena that are transmitted through social learning in human
societies.
The rise of cultural anthropology took place within the context of the late nine-
teenth century when questions regarding which cultures were “primitive” and which
were “civilized” occupied the minds of Europeans [10]. Colonialism and its processes
increasingly brought European thinkers into direct or indirect contact with “primitive
others.” The relative status of various humans, some of whom had modern advanced
technologies that included engines and telegraphs, while others lacked anything but
face-to-face communication techniques and still lived a Paleolithic lifestyle, was of
interest to the first generation of cultural anthropologists [11].
The term “cultural competence” is based on a great deal of research and scholarly
thinking, and requires not only learning but also practicing. It can sound like an over-
whelming concept to take in, particularly considering how many different cultures
there are worldwide, and the fact that each individual within a culture is just that:
one person, with unique feelings and perspectives on their own cultural beliefs and
values [11].
Some aspects of human behavior, social practices such as culture, expressive
forms such as art, music, dance, and religious rituals, as well as the development and
use of tools for cooking, building shelter, and making clothing are said to be cultural
universals found in all human societies.
The concept of material culture covers the physical expressions of culture, such
as technology, architecture, and art whereas the immaterial aspects of culture such
as principles of social organization (including practices of political organization and
social institutions), mythology, philosophy, literature (both written and oral), and
science comprise the intangible cultural heritage of a society.
A person’s cultural awareness “is their understanding of the differences between
themselves and people from other countries or other backgrounds, especially differ-
ences in attitudes and values”. According to Winkelman, awareness of cultural dif-
ferences and their impact on behavior is the beginning of intercultural effectiveness.
He states that “cultural self-awareness includes recognition of one’s own cultural
influences upon values, beliefs, and judgments, as well as the influences derived
from the professional’s work culture” [12]. Cultural awareness is the first step in
becoming proficient in working well with people from a variety of cultures.
In analyzing Sub-Saharan Africa, we should take into account: tribal/ethnic/nation
identity determinants, traditions, customs, lifestyles, and beliefs of others, cultural
norms and differences, awareness of verbal and non-verbal communication, human
dignity, equality, and non-racism.
298 M. Nowakowska et al.

4 Cultural Reality of Post-tribal Sub-Saharan Africa

In Africa, we don’t have tribe-nation, just tribe-state. North African countries were
united by religion—Islam, and language—Arabic. There, religion has become a
supra-political and supra-ethnic factor and has contributed to the formation of nations
in Saharan Africa, by applying a pre-industrial tradition, kept by the clergy, to the
formation of a national idiom and belief system adopted by the modern community.
The situation in Sub-Saharan Africa is even more complex and fluid in ethnic terms.
It should be remembered that in the pre-colonial era, the racial factor did not play
a role in identity formation. People living in tribal groups did not recognize skin
color as one of the main determinants of self-identification. In postcolonial Africa, a
model of the state remained based not on the community of culture, but on postcolo-
nial political and geographical structures. Modern countries appeared there among
linguistic communities, entangled in the system of tribal organizations, and at the
same time lacking expressive ethnic awareness. To unify culture and impose the
idea of a nation, a foreign, European culture was used. Colonial domination had left
effective governments with political units lingering in permanent, clearly delimited
areas. At the same time, the rule by white people caused the formation of nationalist,
separatist movements which unified all non-white inhabitants of a given territory,
designated by the colonial administration and covering areas with a heterogeneous
historical past.
Despite these trends connecting Sub-Saharan Africans, one cannot generally
speak in terms of nations, but rather tribes or ethnic groups. Language and cul-
ture were an important component of collective consciousness, but origin played a
key role. The tribe, understood as a homogeneous and culturally integrated local and
regional community, did not exist in the strict sense in Sub-Saharan Africa, although
the lives of the inhabitants were enclosed in small not necessarily homogeneous local
communities [13].
It is believed that the “tribe” appeared in the colonial era as a result of the inten-
tional actions of colonial states or the intentional actions of other institutions foreign
to Africans. Responsibility for the creation of this concept is attributed to (i) mission-
aries who, while creating religious texts in native languages, favored certain local
dialects at the expense of others, then selected which dialects to use to create the lan-
guage of the entire tribe, (ii) researchers, who in monographs of ethnic groups painted
the idealized image of homogeneous and culturally integrated communities thereby
creating them, and (iii) the state administration [14]. Researchers reconstructed the
reality they studied, guided by a vision they had created. As a result, models of static
and closed societies were created. Following a period of intensive non-European
field research, work relating to African Political Systems was published for the first
time in 1940 [15].
In the colonial period, when most research was conducted on tribal communities,
the political context was of decisive importance for the theoretical construction of the
subject of research. Researchers received financial support from institutions that were
interested in maintaining and consolidating the colonial order. Anthropologists were
Cultural Awareness for Civilian-Military Cooperation … 299

expected to provide information on the social organization of tribal people. It was

hoped that the information thus obtained would prove useful in the implementation of
indirect government policy aimed at “controlling the natives through their own tribal
organization” [14]. The ethnographers themselves portrayed themselves as creative
mediators between indigenous societies and colonial authorities in the interest of
their peaceful cooperation.
However, colonial administrative policy played a key role in awakening ethnic
awareness in Africa. It involved the fragmentation and isolation of previously defined
ethnic units. The emerging ethnic awareness of indigenous people was strengthened
by a culturally defined group interest. As a result, it began to be politically manip-
ulated and used in political and economic competition. In this way, as a result of
culturally defined group interests, the phenomenon of “tribalism” appeared, i.e., the
tendency to persist or return to the pre-national tribal separateness found in some
countries. Historians of the ethnic processes of the continent in question emphasize
that tribalism did not play a major role in the pre-colonial period. The ideology of
tribalism assumes not only the maintenance of old tribal structures but also the adap-
tation of these old structures to the modern state. Vorbrich narrows this definition
and recognizes tribalism as “using ethnic sentiments for the needs of economic and
political competition in a multi-ethnic state” [14]. It is a phenomenon that influenced
the social and cultural life of Africans in postcolonial Africa. Its first manifesta-
tions can be seen already at the end of the colonial era when organizations founded
on the basis of ethnic awareness (cultural, regional associations, and even political
parties) became instruments of resistance against the omnipotence of the colonial
administration.
In postcolonial Africa, the newly created ethnic/tribal consciousness has become
an obstacle in building a national identity. National borders usually ignore the reach
of ethnic units. On the one hand—they separate individual ethnic groups, assigning
them to different countries, on the other hand—they include in the common state
organism people differing in language, culture and historical experience. Social ten-
sions occasionally turn into ethnic conflicts. In modern African countries, the status
of ethnic groups within a country is often determined by the origin of the current
ruling elite, and sudden changes of leaders have sometimes led to armed ethnic con-
flicts and acts of genocide. New forms of rivalry between ethnic groups have also
appeared, which are less concerned with the sphere of culture, and more with access
to natural resources, funds from national budgets and foreign aid [13].
African leaders have set themselves the goal of building nation-states. However,
some Africans define their identity according to a kinship system which makes it
impossible for one to belong to two or more tribes. In turn, a nation, as a cultural
community, cannot exist without the free flow of ideas and individuals between its
social components, in other words, a nation cannot include just one tribe. Attempts
have been made to overcome this in former British colonies by promoting the concept
of “Pan-Africanism”, i.e., the cultural and political community of the United States
of Africa. A similar idea arose in former French colonies. In 1960, Leopold Senghor
became the president of Senegal and tried to create a nation-state in Africa on the
basis of African elites educated in France. His program of activities was based on
300 M. Nowakowska et al.

the premise of integrating French-speaking ethnic groups. From this idea comes the
ideology of Negritude, i.e., a set of civilization-cultural, economic and political values
characteristic of black people. These values, contrasted with Westerner’s civilization,
were to become an instrument in the fight against colonial domination. The unification
of African states was also served by the African Unity Organization established in
1963, renamed the African Union in 2002.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, we can find the new idea of identity—post-tribal one. A
post-tribal society is a society in which the cultural features and elements of the
structure that are typical of tribal society, such as small scale of social systems,
the dominance of ethnocentric attitudes, concentration of social roles in the same
people or institutions, collectivism and the resulting concept of a human being sub-
ordinated to the community, advantage of blood relationships over any relationships
and related ones: principles of loyalty and traditional sources of prestige (seniority
relations), etc., continue to prevail. In a selective and processed way, they are mixed
with institutions and principles imported from the Western cultural circle such as a
relatively large scale social systems, the project of the nation as an integrated—but
pluralistic—community, the concept of “freedom” raised to the rank of doctrine, a
social organization based on the dominance of free trade unions, parliamentarism,
the drivers of personal success based on education, individualistic attitudes regarding
women’s rights, consumerism and more generally an approach of putting the rights
and needs of the individual over the needs of the community [14].
So post-tribal is a society in which the characteristics of culture and elements
of structure which are typical of tribal society blend in with institutions and rules
imported from the Western cultural circle.
In spite of many attempts at integration in postcolonial Africa, conflicts still go
back to their tribal divisions, which have little in common with the colonialist states
and the nations inhabiting them, that were created using the model of European
countries and nations.

5 CIMIC in Sub-Saharan Africa

The approach to civil-military cooperation in Africa appeared after the renaming of

the OAU (Organization of African Unity) to the AU (African Union) in 2002. This
change was the result of an increase in internal conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa during
the 1990s. There was a need to transform strict military operations into operations
that integrated the military, police, and civilians during peace missions. A fact worth
noticing is that both the UN and AU doctrines about peacekeeping operations are a
mix of military and civilian components working together to lay the foundations for
a stable peace in the region.
AU PSO (Peace Support Operations) doctrine describe PSO as a “multifunc-
tional operation in which impartial activities of diplomatic, military and civilian, and
police components normally in pursuit of the United Nations Charter purposes and
principles, work to restore or maintain peace in a mandated area of operations” [16].
Cultural Awareness for Civilian-Military Cooperation … 301

But in the African context we most of the time have contacts with government-
linked paramilitaries to local groups [17]. Where structures are formalized, partic-
ularly in Sub-Saharan Africa armed groups often present themselves as alternative
governments in order to extract money and favors from civilians, while hiding behind
a facade of legitimacy and marginalization.
Therefore, based on the research of military relations from an insider’s point of
view by Francis Onditi and Pontian Okoh we can observe that first knowledge of the
fact that “the success of civil-military relationship has been attributed to structured
civil-military coordination” [7], where we can see the inconsistency of applying pre-
viously agreed upon standards between the AU and REC has created new grievances
which have resulted in renewed conflict.
Second, “the geopolitics of regions has been found to facilitate or hinder devel-
opment of ASF structures” [7], which means that regional forums are more capable
of facilitating a collective approach to social affairs.
Third “Regional Mechanisms have evolved into a militarized culture” [7], where
over 50% of the ASF structures were military in nature.
Fourth, the fact that “key actors in African PSO have inadequately addressed the
causes of training-deployment transition gap” [7]. In this case, military academies
are recommended to embrace the concept of the “thinking soldier” and peacekeepers
must be willing to be more flexible and more adaptive to the operational environment.
And the last issue is the lack of ideological orientation and the inability of peace-
keepers within the ASF structures to adopt a new mindset. Most military personnel
is conservative in outlook due to traditional values and connect to the ruling party
[7] which has resulted in military officers adapting the same values and behavior
patterns as the politicians.
As we can see there is a need for innovation in how to embed non-state actors in
the decision-making processes.
Therefore, within the context of AU PSO, it is important that structures established
to develop peacekeeping and the capacities of peace operations (including regional
mechanisms, regional economic communities, regional organizations, Peacekeep-
ing Training Centres of Excellence, the African Peace Support Trainers Associa-
tion (APSTA), Think Tanks and civil society organizations and decision-making
processes (AU) and governments) are inclusive of civilians, police and the military.

6 Conclusions

Many civilians as well as military institutions critique AU and its institutions for their
responsibility in restraining Africa from achieving “development, peace and security
goals is the way in which governance in Africa and institutions at various levels are
constituted, structured and manager” [18]. The doctrine that should regulate CIMIC
on the African continent is the African Capability for Immediate Response to Crisis
(ACIRC), which is a military concept with the lethal potential of increasing the
dimension of African conflicts with African Standby Forces (ASF). But adapting
302 M. Nowakowska et al.

AFS to every conflict in Africa is a misunderstanding. As we point out—Africa is

not a country with much more cultural varieties, one doctrine, specifically based on
Western ideas, does not fit in.
Taking into account NATO doctrine including cultural awareness we should adapt
African cultural reality to protect cultural heritage. Not only understanding as mate-
rial culture, but also as identity, values, traditions and formal as well as informal
norms. Due to the idea of a post-tribal society that is a kind of Western explana-
tion of the African mentality, NATO doctrine should be adapted to incorporate more
African cultural diversity with the background of colonialism and post-colonialism.
With the most important to CIMIC actions—blurring of the lines between combat-
ants and civilians. As the example, we can give Central African Republic, Mali,
South Sudan or Somalia.
The research being conducted concerns the awareness of NATO soldiers (mainly
commanding officers) in the field of Sub-Saharan African cultures. They relate to
both intercultural communication skills, knowledge of formal and informal norms,
ability to behave in post-tribal communities, knowledge of cultural values, the ability
to apply cultural relativism, as well as getting rid of stereotypes built mostly by
Western media.

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Ivey, B. (eds.) Cultural Awareness in the Military. Palgrave, New York (2014)
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tion Office (2018)
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6. Mays, T.: African solutions for African problems: the changing face of African mandated peace
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ism. J. Afr. Confl. Peace Stud. (2). http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/2325-484X.3.1.1087
8. Ankersen, C.: Civil-Military Cooperation in Post-Conflicts Operations. Emerging Theory and
Practice. Routledge, London (2013)
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Press, Philadelphia (2018)
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(1998)
12. Winkelman, M.: Cultural Awareness, Sensitivity and Competence. Kindle (2005)
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AWL, Wroclaw (2017)
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peace support operations in Africa. Afr. Insight 44(3), 111–128 (2014)
Situational Awareness of Leadership
in Ecuador and Its Applicability
in the Multilevel Military Leadership
Model

Celio H. Puga, Paolo Suárez, Valentina Ramos, Isabel Abad,

and Alex F. Jimenez

Abstract This chapter presents the development of an investigation aimed at iden-

tifying, in the Ecuadorian civil and military population, the predominant leadership
style, according to the Full Range Leadership Model (FRLM), based on the Multi-
factor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ), which was adapted and validated for the
Ecuadorian context. It also presents the progress of research aimed at validating a
multilevel military leadership model, in which the leadership styles are related to the
levels of military leadership and institutional competencies required by the leader,
through a data collection instrument that it will be validated.

Keywords Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) · Full Range Leadership

Model (FRLM) · Military leadership · Multilevel leadership · Transformational
leadership · Leadership competencies

1 Introduction

On the broad topic of leadership, there is no unified theory, so Kort [1] mentions
that after reviewing more than two hundred definitions of leadership, the common
aspect is that leadership is about a person, who is the leader, which makes other
people (influence), known as followers, perform activities in search of a goal. The
definitions differ in detail regarding the roles of leaders and their characteristics [2].

C. H. Puga (B)
Programa de Doctorado de Economía y Empresa, FAE, Universidad de Málaga, Malaga, Spain
e-mail: [email protected]
P. Suárez · V. Ramos
Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
I. Abad
Universidad de Málaga, Malaga, Spain
A. F. Jimenez
Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo FAE, Pedro Escobedo, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 305
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_27
306 C. H. Puga et al.

Likewise, Bennis and Nanus (1985) as cited in [3] indicate that one of the dif-
ferences between leader and boss is manifested in the representation of authority,
leadership represents informal authority, from the moral and emotional; while the
boss is linked to the formal institutional authority, with specific specifications to the
position and hierarchy given according to the organizational one. Thus, Luthe in his
book El Líder, from 2006, mentions that leading, directing, guiding others is not a
simple task, since it is not just about issuing provisions or orders for subordinates to
route their fulfillment, but to develop in the followers the task of making themselves.
In this sense, the researchers Avolio et al. [4] determine leadership as a universal
phenomenon, which deserves to be studied and deepened in various places around the
world. Therefore, there are several studies in Latin America that seek to understand
and determine what kind of leadership has the greatest impact or influence to obtain
better results within the lines of command in various fields, such as organizational,
political, military, social, or environmental. In addition, they add that leadership is
linked to the culture of a place, through values, ideals, norms, and beliefs [3].
Therefore, the need to study leadership in the specific Ecuadorian context is con-
sidered relevant under the conceptions mentioned above of leadership, specifically
seeking to establish the relationships between the type or style of leadership and the
culture of a nation and its link to progress of societies.

1.1 Leadership in Ecuador

At the international level, some leaders such as Gandhi, Mandela, Luther King,
among others, have influenced with their leadership style in the transformation of
several countries, in the social, political, economic aspect, generating actions of
change in society and in some organizations [5].
On the other hand, several researchers affirm that the type of leadership is influ-
enced by the environment, values, specific norms of each culture, that is, the lead-
ership could have specific characteristics according to the country where the study
is carried out. Specifically in Ecuador, after the literature review, no other studies
have been found that tend to identify the predominance of a leadership style in the
Ecuadorian population, nor specifically in the Ecuadorian Armed Forces. Therefore,
the importance of research lies in trying to establish other dimensions related to
leadership in Ecuador.
So, it is essential to know the predominant leadership style in Ecuadorian orga-
nizational management, which corresponds to the specific culture of this country. In
order to determine the leadership style, it is pertinent to use important tools, known
and proven internationally; for this, it is necessary to indicate that the theory on which
this study was based is related to the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ),
of Bass and Avolio [4, 6].
This questionnaire has been applied in research in several countries with the
purpose of determining the predominant leadership style; for which, in some cases,
it has adapted to the specific needs of the place where it has been applied. In this
Situational Awareness of Leadership in Ecuador … 307

particular case, it has been considered convenient to go through a stage of validation

of the instrument, seeking to adapt it to the Ecuadorian context so that it is related
to the specific culture and language, to be applied at the national level, and later in
the military field.
As a very important component of Ecuadorian society, the Armed Forces are not
oblivious to this study of leadership at the national level; however, the particular
characteristics of the military institution, such as the vertically hierarchical organi-
zational structure, with established mechanics, norms, and well-defined procedures,
it is necessary that a more specific investigation be applied.

1.2 Leadership Styles According to the Full Range

Leadership Model

The Full Range Leadership Model (FRLM) was proposed by Bass and Avolio,
leading leadership researchers, who based their theory on charismatic and trans-
formational leadership, to establish this leadership model, also called Multifactorial
Leadership Theory. This model includes three types or styles of leadership that are:
transformational, transactional, and laissez-faire.
Likewise, they raised the aforementioned MLQ questionnaire, with the purpose of
having a tool that allows evaluating and determining these three types of leadership,
with their characteristics and effects.
Transformational leadership focuses on motivating, transforming, inspiring, pay-
ing attention to their followers, modifying their way of thinking, leading them to over-
come personal interests, seeking optimal performance based on a new vision, seeking
to achieve group goals, in organizational benefit. This leadership style comprises five
factors listed below [3, 7] (Fig. 1 and Table 1).
Transactional leadership is characterized in that the achievement of established
goals, or good performance involves a reward, be it financial or moral; so too, the
negative results bring negative actions of the leader. It does not present a vision of
the future; on the contrary, it concentrates on the current. The leader acts actively
through corrective actions, and his passive action ends when he must solve problems.
It comprises three factors, listed in Table 2 [3, 7].
The leadership laissez-faire (whose translation from French is “let do”) is consid-
ered the most passive and least effective, is a lack of leadership, in which the leader
avoids making decisions, evades tasks, and be involved in matters transcendental.

1.3 Military Leadership Levels

The analysis of leadership by levels is related to the permanent evolution of lead-

ership and organizational science, especially in regard to the relationships between
different levels of the organization, that is why, some leadership research is aimed at
308 C. H. Puga et al.

Fig. 1 Leadership styles FRLM. Source Prepared by the authors, adapted from Bass and Avolio

Table 1 Transformational leadership and its components

Components Definition
Idealized influence (Attributed) Leaders serve as a role model for their followers. They are
admired, respected, and inspire confidence
Idealized influence (Behavior) Being models to be imitated, admired, respected, and give
confidence, the leaders have an idealized behavior
Inspirational motivation Leaders motivate followers by providing a sense of work and
an attractive vision of the organizational future
Intellectual stimulation Leaders stimulate innovation and creativity. They also try
new approaches and seek solutions for themselves
Individualized consideration Leaders give individualized attention to each follower for
their achievement and growth by being a coach or mentor
Source Prepared by the authors, based on [7, 8]

a multilevel approach that allows the development of theoretical and methodological

advances at each level [9].
The multilevel perspective begins in 1989, with the Jaques stratified systems
approach, in which it divides them into development strata, according to the time
and complexity of performing different tasks; the higher the stratum, the more time
it takes to complete the task and the greater complexity it has. Similarly, Hunt (1991,
1996, as cited in [7]) develops the multi-organizational level leadership model, also
established according to the complexity of the tasks and the levels to solve them;
critical tasks must be executed by organizational leaders.
Situational Awareness of Leadership in Ecuador … 309

Table 2 Transactional leadership and components

Components Definition
Contingent rewards The leaders make an agreement with their followers
regarding a reward (material) before a well-executed task.
On the contrary, there may also be a punishment
Management by active exception The leader specifies the rules, limits, and punishments.
The leader focuses on correcting errors, and then,
corrective measures that should be taken
Management by passive exception The leader usually leaves things as they are and only
intervenes when the problems become serious
Source Prepared by the authors, based on [7, 8]

Subsequently, the extended multilevel model classifies the levels into three accord-
ing to the complexity of the tasks, with the direct or production level being the lowest
in the organization; the organizational is the middle level; the systems or strategic
level is the highest [10, 11]. In the same vein, Reeves [12] presents the classification
of leadership as junior with lower levels, medium with its role in the integration of
the company, and superior with strategic execution.
Hence, the conception of the type of individual leadership in the 1980s, organiza-
tional in the 1990s and multilevel since 2000 [13]. Similarly, it establishes the basis
for the application of multilevel leadership theory in the organizational field, which
is very compatible with a classification of military leadership on three levels, which
is related to the specific characteristics of the Armed Forces.
Thus, military leadership is made up of three levels: tactical, operational, and
strategic leadership; division that correlates with the classification of the three levels
of military leadership, which is widely known and is part of the doctrine of the Armed
Forces.
Tactical leadership is the lowest level in the military institution; it pursues the
development of the capacity to execute actions with the available means, in search
of achieving the proposed ends. It is the level that has more certainty and less com-
plexity. Without it being a rule, in general, it can be constituted by the personnel of
officers in the first ranks of the military career, although it depends on the leadership
development that they are reaching.
Operational leadership is of medium level; in it, the ends related to the means,
as well as the complex decisions and guidelines of the strategic level with the tasks
to be fulfilled at the tactical level. It is a level that examines a lot of information to
advise at a higher level, based on the understanding and interaction of organizational
systems. The officers who are in the middle ranks, the so-called middle management,
could be part of this level.
Strategic leadership is the one of superior levels because it establishes the orga-
nizational objectives. It takes place in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and unknown
environment, in which the leader relates to external organizations, with different
characteristics. It requires a thorough knowledge of the national, regional, and world
levels, with a capacity for negotiation and successful decision making, due to the
310 C. H. Puga et al.

essential organizational implications. They are formed by officers in the highest

military ranks.
Therefore, the development of leaders implies the development of institutional
competences, analyzed in the following section.

1.4 Institutional Competencies

These are the skills that must be developed by the leaders for the evolution and growth
of their leadership.
Among the institutional competencies are technical, personal, and conceptual.
Technical competencies, which cover specific technical knowledge, decrease as
the level of leadership increases from tactical to strategic; on the other hand, per-
sonal competences, which include interpersonal and intrapersonal, are maintained,
as they are essential at all levels and leadership, while conceptual competences,
which includes the ability to think and conceptualize, grow as the level of leader-
ship increases, until reaching the strategic level in which important aspects of the
organization are resolved.
In reviewing these institutional competencies in more detail, we have to, technical
competencies refer to the ability to use technical knowledge, procedures, and tools
in the development of specific tasks, required at all levels of leadership, but to a
different degree; at the tactical level, it consists of using or maintaining a team or
system, seeking to solve specific problems, as well as performing specific tasks. At
the operational level, it may refer to establishing a network of systems, while, at
the strategic level, they contribute in decision making, by synchronizing information
with a system of systems, or an articulated structure between the Armed Forces or
military units, seeking the resolution of major organizational problems [7, 14], (Katz,
1974, as cited in [15]).
Personal skills mention the ability to interact effectively in the personal, team
and organizational field; which is starting with the development of self-leadership,
self-awareness, values, emotional intelligence, teamwork, developing relationships
of trust and solidarity, fostering an environment of empowerment and motivation,
aimed at achieving goals. Therefore, it is essential at all three levels of leadership, but
in a different way; in the tactical level, they can refer to interpersonal relationships
related to subordination; at the operational level, it interacts with the upper and lower
levels; at the strategic level, they are more lateral relationships, with collaboration,
persuasion, negotiation skills being necessary, within a framework of trust and mutual
respect [7, 14, 16], (Katz, 1974, as cited in [15]).
Finally, conceptual competencies encompass the ability to think and conceptu-
alize abstract and complex situations, by they are more developed at the strategic
level than at the other levels, since relevant information is analyzed and processed,
whether external and internal, that makes it easier to understand and project suitable
planning, as well as adequate decision making, visualizing key situations, identifying
Situational Awareness of Leadership in Ecuador … 311

potential problems and appropriate solutions. Trying to achieve a prospective vision

of organizational projection, based on present conditions, but tending to achieve
future objectives [7, 14], (Katz, 1974, as cited in [15]).

2 Multilevel Military Leadership

Military leadership has been an interesting and permanently topical issue for some
leadership researchers, due to the opportunities and importance of research in this
field, bringing up the Hunt multilevel leadership model, due to the various aspects it
considers [17]. Classified in three levels, which can be adequately related to military
driving levels.
The military must develop different competencies required by the institution,
among which are the technical, personal and conceptual, that will allow to advance to
the following levels of military leadership, and that within the sphere of organizational
leadership, are related to the skills or managerial skills of Katz (Fig. 2).
Thus, predominantly technical skills, due to their specificity, are more necessary
at the tactical level, and they decrease as the leader is at a strategic level, which is no
longer purely technical. On the other hand, personal competencies are required at all
levels, although they evolve, from individual leadership, through team leadership and
reaching leadership of the organization, with the capacity for the relationship that this
implies. In the end, the conceptual competences must be developed until they reach
the strategic level, in which a global concept is required to lead the organization.

Fig. 2 Multilevel military leadership model. Source Prepared by the authors, based on [7, 14, 16]
312 C. H. Puga et al.

3 Materials and Methods

This study is based on the application of the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire

(MLQ), by Bass and Avolio [4, 6], which is highly known, with empirical validity,
applied in several investigations in different countries, in order to obtain data that
allows the determination of leadership style and the relationship with other variable
organizations that have application in the military field. The MLQ has several versions
as a result of its evolution over two decades; the version used is 6S, with 21 questions
and measuring 7 factors that are related to the three leadership styles of the Full Range
Leadership Model; selected because it has the characteristics required in this study.
However, to obtain the desired results, it is necessary to adapt it to the Ecuadorian
context and subsequently to the needs of the Armed Forces [3, 18].
The first stage of this study has been carried out through a survey based on the mea-
suring instrument determined by the MLQ, which, before its application in Ecuador,
went through a validation process. The mentioned process includes validation at the
level of understanding of the instrument, exploratory factor analysis, distribution in
main components, determination of tool reliability, and finally confirmatory factor
analysis, establishing the validity and confidence of the instrument. After validation,
it has been applied in different cities of the country, obtaining 536 responses [3, 19].
For the second stage, in addition to the leadership above style identification tool,
and as a result of a bibliographic investigation, a data collection instrument was
added, in order to establish a measurement of competencies of leadership, focused
mainly on technical, personal, and conceptual skills, as well as job satisfaction, within
each level of leadership. All this questionnaire went through a stage of adaptation to
the military field, through validation by understanding.
Finally, a pilot testing was carried out with this tool, applying it via Google Forms
to a total of 65 Air Force officers.
The next stage is the application of the survey of Officers of the three branches
of the Armed Forces of Ecuador (Army, Navy, and Air Force), in the same way, by
digital means, because the respondents are in different cities of the country.
The officers have been considered for the data collection stage, because they are
the ones who lead their subordinates or followers at the levels of tactical, operational
and strategic leadership, within the military organization; also, officers have a direct
relationship with leaders of the same or higher levels.
The pilot testing allows to determine, based on the surveys and data analysis, the
first results about the leadership style that is predominant in each level of leadership,
whether transformational, transactional, and laissez-faire, as well as its relationship
with technical competencies, personal and conceptual of a leader, and the relationship
of a leader, and the relationship with organizational variables such as job satisfaction
and performance.
The complete study allows obtaining more results, with which a validation stage
is be carried out through multivariate techniques, which helps to have a modeled
relationship between the leadership style with the mentioned variables.
Situational Awareness of Leadership in Ecuador … 313

The results obtained will be useful for the organizational authorities, who can ana-
lyze them and make decisions regarding the diagnosis of institutional leadership and
direct the institutional projection of this issue. Additionally, the study, methodology,
tools, related variables, and structured model expected to be a reference for research
of this type, at regional and global level, highlighting the importance of the influence
of leadership style in the organizational management of Armed Forces, considering
multilevel military leadership.

4 Results

The study conducted on the Ecuadorian population was applied randomly, not to a
specific group or organization, obtaining 536 responses, in several cities in Ecuador,
that is, with a national impact, with 95.77% reliability and a margin of error of
±4.23%, which reflects some results, mainly those commented on in the following
paragraphs [3].
Transactional leadership is the one that predominates in Ecuadorian society, prob-
ably due to the condition of telling the followers what to do to be rewarded and have
rules that regulate their performance.
Regarding leadership and personal characteristics, Ecuadorian women use trans-
actional leadership more. Besides, leadership is also influenced by age so that the
youth of the country tend to have the type of leadership laissez-faire, which, as they
progress in age, varies in the style of transactional leadership. Other results relate
to leadership with personal characteristics such as marital status, and with organiza-
tional characteristics such as the industry sector and the time of organizations in the
market.
In the military field, the pilot testing was carried out on 65 officers of the
Armed Forces, obtaining as a result that the predominant leadership style is
transformational—transactional.
Stratifying the results according to the level of leadership, at the strategic, oper-
ational, and tactical, the transformational leadership predominates, as much as the
transactional, because the results are very close, as shown in Table 3.

5 Conclusions, Discussion, and Future Work

This chapter proposes the use of the MLQ-6S questionnaire, after a validation stage
to adapt it to the Ecuadorian context, to determine the predominant leadership style
(transformational, transactional, or laissez-faire) within Ecuadorian society, as the
first step, and within the Ecuadorian Armed Forces, as a second step.
The data allow us to conclude that the management of Ecuadorian society is pre-
dominantly based on the transactional leadership style in its formal actions, and the
laissez-faire leadership at the informal level. This information allows to evidence
314 C. H. Puga et al.

Table 3 Leadership levels and styles

Leadership level Transformational Transactional Laissez-Faire
leadership leadership leadership
Strategic leadership 2.949 2.910 1.462
Operational 2.733 2.644 1.690
leadership
Tactical leadership 3.105 2.986 1.986
Leadership 2.908 2.818 1.749
Source Own design

that transformational leadership is little used, perhaps because, in the transactional

environment, transformational management could be considered as a sign of weak-
ness before the followers, due to the characteristics of Ecuadorian culture. However,
the ability of the leaders is to know how to apply all types of leadership according
to the one that best suits the characteristics of the environment, in order to generate
positive changes in organizations. Therefore, the success of organizations depends
largely on the type of leadership that is applied to improve institutional development
[3].
A pilot survey was made in military officers, determining that the predominant
leadership is transformational, followed very close by transactional. Thus, almost
same results were obtained with the leadership style associated with each level of
leadership: strategic, operational, and tactical (Table 3).
As a result of this study, carried out in the first instance to civilian personnel of
Ecuadorian society, and later to military personnel, it is expected to have informa-
tion that allows the authorities and the institutional command of the Armed Forces,
make the best decisions and direct new strategies to guide the preparation of leaders
according to the leadership required by the organization. This plan could be focused
on transformational leadership, for their empowerment and motivation characteris-
tics of people, to develop leaders prepared to take their influence to new levels of
effectiveness and national development.
As future work, it is proposed through a Multilevel Military Leadership Model,
correlating levels, and leadership styles. In addition, it seeks to determine the rela-
tionship between the institutional competencies (technical, personal, and conceptual)
necessary to a greater or lesser degree according to the levels of military leadership,
for which there is a validated tool for measuring leadership and competencies applied
to an adequate sample of officers from the three branches of the Armed Forces.
Finally, the validation of research instruments and a multilevel military leader-
ship model, which helps determine and relate leadership styles to leadership levels,
institutional competencies of the leader, and other organizational variables, allows
the study to be considered internationally, seeking to refine the model and implement
improvements in the processes of military leadership formation.
Situational Awareness of Leadership in Ecuador … 315

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Defense Engineering
A Portable GSM Base Station Solution
for Military Communications in Hostile
Environments

Carlos Daniel Altamirano, Santiago Barragán, Felipe Grijalva,

and Manolo Paredes

Abstract Emerging software-defined radio system (SDR) is a solution for new

military operational concepts that require advanced communication capabilities.
SDR may also provide more flexible and possibly cheaper multi-standard terminals
for military communications in hostile environments. In this context, the standard
of Global System of Mobile Communications (GSM) is implemented in SDR, by
using a universal software radio peripheral (USRP) N-210 and the existing tools
like OpenBTS and Docker. This joint implementation is suitable for laboratory
experimentation. However, for practical applications, as military communications, an
amplification stage is necessary. Hence, the theoretical link budget is analyzed, and
experimental measurements bear out the results. Finally, a mean opinion score is per-
formed for evaluating voice quality. The results show that OpenBTS implemented in
the USRP with an adequate amplification is suitable for long-range communications
with little distortion.

Keywords Coverage area · MOS · Docker · OpenBTS · RF amplifier

C. D. Altamirano (B) · M. Paredes

Centro de Investigación de Aplicaciones Militares,
Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas—ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Paredes
e-mail: [email protected]
S. Barragán · F. Grijalva
Departamento de Electrónica, Telecomunicaciones y Redes de Información,
Escuela Politécnica Nacional. Ladrón de Guevara, E11-235 Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
F. Grijalva
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 319
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_28
320 C. D. Altamirano et al.

1 Introduction

An adequate institutional structure is the basis of the security and defense of the coun-
tries, in which the cohesion of the population with a duly equipped armed forces is
fundamental [8]. Thus, the combat power assigns a significant weighting to the com-
mand and control of the belligerent forces; in turn, this command and control are
enhanced based on the available telecommunications systems; otherwise, the avail-
able capacities of each nation could not act in coordination and synchronization. The
armed forces have the responsibility for sovereignty and territorial integrity. Thus,
it is necessary to tend to technological sovereignty with the capacity of developing
its own military technology. In this context, an enabling technology for developing
military communications systems is software-defined radio (SDR) [2].
SDR is a technology where several of the typical components such as filters, mix-
ers, modulators and demodulators of communications systems are implemented in
software. The communication system consists of a re-configurable hardware named
universal software radio peripheral (USRP), where the algorithms are processed via
a host or other embedded device [15]. The growth in the use of these technologies
will promote the demand for a solution that can provide dense, scalable and secure
user environments [16].
For the host processing stage, there has been a significant increase in the devel-
opment of virtualization technologies allowing the partition of a computer system in
multiple isolated environments called container-based virtualization which offers a
lighter and more efficient environment [5].
The flexibility of the SDR technology makes possible to implement different
communications standards. The Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM)
is one of the first technologies developed in mobile communications systems that
were first developed in the late 1980s. According to the GSM Association, it is
the most successful wireless standard in the world, covering more than 90% of
the world population [1]. GSM systems have traditionally been implemented using
expensive hardware components. The development of solutions in SDR makes it
more economical to implement.
On the other hand, the USRP devices have limited RF output power in order to
meet regulations, and they are suitable as laboratory instruments. For long-range
military communication, more output power is required. Thus, in order to boost the
signal to a required level, it is necessary to use a power amplifier. However, using
amplification could result in signal distortion and out-of-band spurious emissions
depending on the implemented communication standard. Finally, the new coverage
radio can be predicted by calculating the link budget.
In the literature, there are several similar projects based on SDR technology. For
instance, in [7], the authors work on the problem of lack of cell phone service by the
implementation of a GSM base station based on open-source software in places of
difficult access. In another similar work [13], the GSM network architecture based
on free software is implemented for digital and social inclusion in isolated rural
communities in the Amazon.
A Portable GSM Base Station Solution for Military Communications … 321

In order to contribute to the background of developing military communications

in Ecuador, as in [14], in this paper, we present the implementation of a GSM base
station based on OpenBTS that is a free software application developed under the
UNIX operating system aimed at military communications in hostile environments. It
uses the USRP hardware to build a wireless radio interface emulating the GSM mobile
communications standard [4]. For an efficient management of the host resources, the
OpenBTS is implemented using Docker that is a container virtualization technology
[3]. Moreover, a power amplification stage is intended to extend the coverage area,
simulating a traditional base radio. Finally, the results of the implementation are
presented in terms of a link budget and a mean opinion score (MOS) in order to
evaluate the voice quality.

2 Methodology

This section describes methodology of implementation and analysis of a GSM base

radio station.

2.1 Implementation

A GSM network consists of several elements summarized by Fig. 1. Next, we describe

the main components of a GSM network:
• Mobile Services Switching Center (MSC): is responsible for performing the
switching tasks within the network, as well as providing connection with other
networks.
• Home Location Register (HLR): is a database that contains information about
users connected to the MSC. Among the information it stores, we have the location
of the user and the services to which he has access.
• Visitor Location Register (VLR): contains all information about a user necessary
for that user to access network services.
• Authentication Center (AuC): provides the necessary parameters for the authen-
tication of users within the network.
• Equipment Identity Register (EIR) used to provide security in GSM networks.
The base station subsystem (BSS) allows mobile stations to be connected, in
addition to being responsible for the transmission and reception of information. It
is made up of two elements, the base transceiver station (BTS) and the base station
controller (BSC).
On the other hand, Fig. 2 depicts a block diagram of the implemented GSM system
using SDR. As a first point, we present the implementation of OpenBTS in Docker
322 C. D. Altamirano et al.

Fig. 1 GSM network architecture

Fig. 2 Diagram of implementation of the GSM base radio station

that allows to use virtual containers, which in turn are operating system independent.
On the other hand, OpenBTS has several services that allow the GSM network to
start, which are:
• SMQueque: This is a server for storing and forwarding text messages in the
OpenBTS system. It is necessary to have this server to send a message from one
mobile station (MS) to another. SMQueque operates similarly to an email server,
since the core is a message queue waiting to be delivered.
• SIPAuthServe: implements the subscriber information database, thus replacing
the Asterisk SIP registry and the Home Local Register(HLR) of a traditional GSM
network.
• Asterisk: to perform the call switching functions OpenBTS uses a PBX or SIP
router. As of version 4.0 of OfpenBTS, the standard SIP router is Asterisk.
• OpenBTS: Through the OpenBTS command line interface (CLI), it is possible to
monitor the system status, as well as making changes to several parameters in real
time.
• Osmo TRX: works as a transceiver that manages the radio interface, also includes
the band tuner.
A Portable GSM Base Station Solution for Military Communications … 323

Fig. 3 Power spectrum of the GSM network with amplification stage

The hardware stage is implemented by using the USRP N210 [6] and the WBX
50-2200 daughterboard. The OpenBTS sets the USRP as a GSM base station with an
output maximum power of −12 dbm that allows a coverage of 30 m. The OpenBTS
application allows to regulate the transmission output power through the power com-
mand. In order to increase the coverage area, at the USRP output, we have connected
a power amplifier. Specifically, the ZVE-83 + mini-circuit amplifier [10] allows a
power gain of 20 dB. Thus, the maximum output power is +8 dbm, as shown in Fig. 3.
As a radiator element, we have used the Kathrein panel antenna [9] with 15 dBi
of gain. The antenna radiation pattern is presented in Fig. 4. For integration with the
amplification stage and for the reception channel in the USRP, we used a 7/16 DIN
to SMA adapter. Additionally, the reception sensitivity in the USRP can be modified
in the OpenBTS CLI through the rxgain command.
Finally, the antenna is placed at a height of 12 m, located in the facilities of the
Military Applications Research Center, CICTE, with a pointing direction of N30W.

2.2 Analysis

In order to have information regarding to base station coverage radio, we present a

link budget that allows us to predict the possible coverage area based on a propagation
324 C. D. Altamirano et al.

Fig. 4 Kathrein antenna

radiation pattern. Adapted
from [9]

model. In this work, the Okumura–Hata model is used for calculating the link budget
[12]. The receiver sensibility is given by:

Psen = PTx − L Tx + G Tx − L p − MI − MSF − L I + G Rx − L Rx , (1)

where the parameters are defined in Table 1.

From Eq. (1), it is possible to determine the propagation loss, which is given by:

−110 dBm = 8 dBm − 3 dB + 15 dBi − L p − 5 dB − 3 dB + 0 − 0

L p = 122 dB (2)

Table 1 Summary of the parameters of link budget

Parameter Value
Receiver sensitivity (Psen ) 8 dBm
Lost cable and transmitter connectors (L Tx ) 3 dbm
Lost cable and receiver connectors (L Rx ) 0 dbm
Antenna gain (G Tx ) 15 dBi
Fast fading margin (MSF ) 3 dBi
Interference margin (MI ) 5 dB
Receiver gain (G Rx ) 0 dBi
Propagation loss (L p ) –
Frequency (f ) 945 MHz
Base station height (h BS ) 12 m
Mobile height (h M S ) 0m
Distance between base station and mobile (d) –
A Portable GSM Base Station Solution for Military Communications … 325

The propagation loss in the Okumura–Hata model is given by:

L p = 69.55 + 26.16log( f ) − 13.82log(h BS ) − A(h mobil )

(3)
+ [44.9 − 6.55log(h BS )]log(d) dB

where the parameters are given in Table 1.

Finally, by replacing the parameters of Table 1 in (3), the coverage distance of our
scenario is d = 0.531 km.

3 Results

In this section, we describe different experiments performed to check the operation

of the base station. The first one in order to determine the voice quality and the second
one to obtain the coverage area achieved with the GSM base radio station.
Before presenting the results of the aforementioned experiments, in order to
observe the system behavior in frequency, we performed measurements by using
a vector spectrum analyzer. Figure 5 shows the power spectrum and the central fre-
quency at 945 MHz of our setup, where it is clear that there is no interference with
commercial operators.

Fig. 5 Power spectrum of the GSM network

326 C. D. Altamirano et al.

3.1 MOS Test

The MOS test allows us to determine the voice quality. MOS is the value that an
individual attributes based on their own opinion about the quality voice of a telephone
system either during a conversation or only when listening [11]. The MOS test was
performed to a universe of 50 people of an average age between 22–31 years under
the guidelines shown in Table 2.
The test was applied at a distance of 480 m, where the obtained average rating was
3.88/5, which is quite acceptable for the system. Subsequently, the test was applied
at a distance of 200 m, where the average rating was 4.2/5. At a closer distance
from the antenna, the voice quality perception was improved as expected. Figure 6
summarizes the distribution of MOS results according to the number of people.
Finally, it is worth noting that since the amplification stage introduces distortion,
the average rating results do not reach 5 points. Still, in neither case, the obtained
result was bad, and most of the people rated the system as good.

Table 2 MOS score

Score Description
5. Excellent Similar to communication in person
4. Good There may be slight interference, but in general, the communication is clear
3. Fair Communication is stable, but there are factors that generate interference
2. Poor There is almost no communication
1. Bad Impossible to achieve communication

Fig. 6 MOS results according to the number of people in 480 and 200 m
A Portable GSM Base Station Solution for Military Communications … 327

3.2 Coverage Analysis

For the coverage analysis, the G-NEtTRACK LITE application is used, which is
a wireless network monitor for devices with Android operating system. It allows
monitoring and recording parameters of a mobile network without using special
equipment. Using the G-NEtTRACK application, we measured the received power
by means of a drive test over the base station adjacent area. As a result of this mea-
surement, we obtained power parameters in dBm, latitude and longitude at several
points. Then, using the MATLAB tool, we interpolated these points to obtain the
coverage.
Figure 7 shows the resulting heat map that describes the received power distribu-
tion from the base station. As a result, it can be seen that the highest concentration
of energy is in the center of the map which dissipates as it moves away from the
base station. Notice that there is an increase in power at the upper end due to the
unevenness of the ground causing that some areas are at a greater height. Finally,
since the antenna is directive, there is directional radiation lobe with a maximum
coverage distance of 500 m, which is in accordance with the Okumura–Hata model
prediction.

Fig. 7 Heat map of coverage area for the GSM base station
328 C. D. Altamirano et al.

4 Conclusion

The implementation of OpenBTS in Docker has the particularity of being portable

which is a key feature for both military communications and communications from
entities responsible for risk management, since it facilitates the implementation of the
base station radio in any another system without the need to redo all the installation
setup.
Moreover, since OpenBTS is an open-source software, its code is designed to
be accessible to the public, so it is possible to modify and distribute it according to
the needs of military communication without having to pay for a license and still
maintaining safety conditions.
The power amplification stage together with the radiant element allows to increase
the coverage area, making the system more practical for both commercial and military
applications. On the other hand, the system voice quality has high acceptance rates
by people, as evidenced by the MOS test. Taking into account that in none of the two
MOS tests the assessment was bad, we conclude that the voice service offers good
enough quality.
Within the research line of cellular systems with SDR, there is a wide list of
possible future projects; among these, we have the use of power amplifiers of better
characteristics such as the HMC 1099 from Analog Devices that will allow distances
close to one kilometer and the implementation of 3G and 4G technologies through
open-source initiatives such as with OpenUMTS and Open Air Interface.
As another future project within the OpenBTS line of research is the implemen-
tation of multiple nodes, with the aim of expanding the network to multiple physical
sites, providing mobility in a wide area, as any mobile network operator. Likewise,
the interconnection with commercial operators via the integration of an FXS-FXO
port.

References

1. Azad, A.: Open BTS Implementation with Universal Software Radio Peripheral. Department
of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, Virginia,
VA, USA (2011)
2. Bergstrom, C., Chuprun, S., Gifford, S., Maalouli, G.: Software defined radio (SDR) special
military applications. In: MILCOM 2002. Proceedings. IEEE
3. Boettiger, C.: An introduction to docker for reproducible research. ACM SIGOPS Oper. Syst.
Rev. 49(1), 71–79 (2015)
4. Burgess, D., Samra, H., et al.: The openbts project. Report available at http://openbts.
sourceforge.net, http://openBTS.org (2008)
5. Combe, T., Martin, A., Pietro, R.D.: To docker or not to docker: a security perspective. IEEE
Cloud Comput. 3(5), 54–62 (2016)
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content/uploads/2019/01/07495_Ettus_N200-210_DS_Flyer_HR_1.pdf
7. Guerrero, H., García, D., Juárez, M., Rico, U., Navarro, S., Casas, A.A.: Implementación de
red celular de bajo costo para comunidades rurales basada en sdr y openbts (Implementation of
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a low cost cellular network for rural communities based on sdr and openbts). Pistas Educativas
40(130) (2018)
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(2018)
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cosconor.fr/GSM/Divers/Equipment/Kathrein/Kathrein%202004.pdf
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ZVE-3W-83+.pdf
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Characterization and Simulation
of a Propagation Model to Determine
the Secondary Effects that Generate High
Power and Frequency Electromagnetic
Signs When Impact on Electronic
Systems and Surface of Vehicles Family
AMX13 of The Land Force

Jorge Damian Alvarez, Pablo Albán, Jonathan Lopez,

and Yéssica Fernández

Abstract This article consists of the study and analysis of the armor effectiveness
of a military combat vehicle against possible attacks with electromagnetic weapons.
For the study, it is necessary to use two important softwares namely ALTAIR FEKO
and MATLAB. ALTAIR FEKO allows the creation or importation of a 3D model of
an armor vehicle and work with the model changing their characteristics like relative
permeability, electrical conductivity, and material thickness. With this software, we
can simulate the 3D model and analyze its shielding effectiveness with the obser-
vation of induced currents inside the vehicle and determine if these currents can
cause the destruction of the electronics systems of vehicle. The use of MATLAB
toolboxes like an App Designer to develop an application to calculate the shielding
effectiveness of an armored vehicle is an additional and quick option to calculate
armor losses because this application represents a significative save of memory and
computational resources.

Keywords Shielding · Currents · Armor losses

J. D. Alvarez · P. Albán (B) · J. Lopez

Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí 171103, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
J. D. Alvarez
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Lopez
e-mail: [email protected]
Y. Fernández
Universidad Nacional de Educación, Azogues 030105, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 331
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_29
332 J. D. Alvarez et al.

1 Shielding Effectiveness

The shielding effectiveness (SE) of equipment cases and spacecraft skin is determined
by the type of material used and the holes in that material. Typical metals, thick
enough to provide adequate mechanical strength when used for equipment cases and
spacecraft skin, provide acceptable SE. Holes and slots in the metal are the most
common detriment to SE. Therefore, most shielding design effort concentrates on
reducing the number and size of openings [1].
Shielding can be specified in terms of the reduction in magnetic and/or electric
field strength caused by the shield. It is convenient to express this shielding effec-
tiveness in units of decibels (dB). The use of decibels then permits the shielding
produced by various effects to be added to obtain the total shielding [2].
The equations to determine the shielding effectiveness are the next:

Sd B = Ad B + Rd B + Bd B [1] (1)

where
• Ad B : Attenuation due to absorption
• Rd B : Loss due reflection
• Bd B : Reflection Correction
The SE of the barrier is caused by reflection from the surface due to the impedance
mismatch between the two mediums and attenuation by absorption loss within the
barrier [1].
Some absorption loss occurs each time the wave traverses the thickness of the
barrier. The rereflected component usually reduces SE by adding power to the output.
The reduction may be significant if the absorption losses are low [1].

1.1 Equation for Absorption Losses

When an electromagnetic wave passes through a metallic medium, its amplitude

decreases exponentially and this decay occurs because currents induced in the shield
produce ohmic losses and heating of the material [2]. We can write:

E 1 = E 0 e−t/δ [2] (2)

And

H1 = H0 e−t/δ [2] (3)

where E 1 (H1 ) is the wave intensity at a distance t within the shield [2]. The distance
required for the wave to be attenuated is defined as the skin depth, the equal is:
Characterization and Simulation of a Propagation Model … 333

2
δ= [2] (4)
ωμσ

Substituting numerical values for μ and σ and changing units so the skin depth
is in inches and meter gives:

2.6
δ=√ [2] (5)
f ∗ μr ∗ σr
1
δ=√ [1] (6)
μr ∗ σr ∗ f MHz

where
• μr : Relative permeability.
• σr : Relative conductivity.
The absorption loss can be written as:

E0
A = 20 log = 20 log e−t/δ [2] (7)
E1
 
t
A = 20 log(e)d B[2] (8)
δ
 
t
A = 8.69 d B[2] (9)
δ

Substituting Eq. 5 into Eq. 9 gives the following expression for absorption loss:

Ad B = 3.34 ∗ tin ∗ f ∗ μr ∗ σr [2] (10)

And

Ad B = 1314 ∗ tcm ∗ μr ∗ σr ∗ f MHz [1] (11)

where t = thickness.

1.2 Equation for Reflection Losses

The ratio (K) of wave impedance to metal impedance is used to determine reflection
components in the shielding effectiveness [1]. The equations are given:

Zw
K = for t > 3δ[1] (12)
Zm
334 J. D. Alvarez et al.

And
Zw
K = for t < 3δ (13)
ZB

where
• Z w : Wave impedance.
• Z m : Intrinsic impedance of metals.
• Z B : Intrinsic impedance for thin metal.
The equation for reflection losses is the next expression:
For K  1

(1 + K )2 K
R = 20 log = 20 log [1] (14)
4∗K 4
 λ

In the far field, r ≥ 2π
,
For plane waves:
 
μr ∗ f M H z
Rd B = 108.1 − 10 log [1] (15)
σr
 λ

In the near field, r ≤ 2π
,
For E fields:

μr ∗ f M3 H z ∗ rm2
Rd B = 141.7 − 10 log [1] (16)
σr

1.3 Reflection Factor


Bd B = 20 log 1 − e− δ [1]
2∗t
(17)
Characterization and Simulation of a Propagation Model … 335

2 Simulations and Results

2.1 Armored Vehicle 3D Model

Feko is comprehensive computational electromagnetics (CEM) software used widely

in the telecommunications, automobile, aerospace, and defense industries [3].
CADFEKO is a design tool that allows creating a 3D model or import the geometry
from other design software, here we can edit the model and modify their character-
istics like shielding thickness, change parameters as relative permeability, electrical
conductivity according to the material, this software allows simulate the model as a
real environment. At this same tool, we can position an antenna in direction of the
vehicle, also it’s possible to edit a frequency range of the antenna and power, con-
sider that a range of frequency configuration needs a high consumption of computing
resources and execution time of simulation.
The model can be constructed with CADFEKO but if this tool is hard to use it is
possible to construct the model with other design software like SOLIDWORKS and
export the design to FEKO and configure the characteristics of the vehicle.
Figure 1 shows the 3D model constructed using SOLIDWORKS and exported
to CADFEKO to add and configure the characteristics of the vehicle like shielding
thickness, relative permeability, electrical conductivity, and the antenna configura-
tion.
The armored vehicle for this study is the war tank AMX13; this vehicle is armored
with aluminum 5083 and the characteristics shielding of the model are the following:
• Shielding thickness: 30 mm
• Relative permeability: 1
• Electrical conductivity: 16,558,500 s/m
The antenna configuration is the next:
• Frequency: 600 MHz

Fig. 1 Armored vehicle 3D

model
336 J. D. Alvarez et al.

• Range of frequency: 10–100 MHz

• Power: 1.5 W–1.5 KW
• Distance to the vehicle: 6 m
The solution method used at the simulation is MoM (Method of Moments), this
method is used for electrically large structures.

2.2 Simulation of the Model

Electromagnetic pulses damage electrical and electronic circuits by inducing voltages

and currents that they are not designed to withstand [4], for this reason, it´s necessary
to analyze and simulate the shielding effectiveness.
Once configured the model, antenna and chosen the solution method the first step
it’s validated the simulation and run Feko Solver, the that the Simulator needs to run
de simulation is high, about four hours of simulation.
The electromagnetic attack at different frequencies in a range of 10–100 MHz
was analyzed but in the frequency of 70 MHz there is a greater incidence of the
attack on the vehicle, but the damage to the electronic systems inside is caused by
the high power it needs the source to carry out the attack, it was observed that with
a source power of 1.5 KW it is possible to cause damage to the electronic devices
since currents greater than 3 A are induced.
Figure. 2 shows the results obtained with an attack on the front of the vehicle with
a power source of 1.5 KW.
At the frequency of 70 MHz is when more influence of the attack in front of the
vehicle is observed, the induced currents exceed 3 A which is the maximum current
that the electronic systems of the vehicle support, this attack caused damage to the
systems that operate the pilot and co-pilot.
Figure. 3 shows the results obtained with the source located back of the vehicle
and power of 1.5 KW.
The induced currents a frequency of 70 MHz inside the vehicle reach a value of
3.98 A, this current is higher than that supported by electronic systems inside the
vehicle causing damage to them.
Figure. 4 shows the results obtained with the source located to the right side of
the vehicle.
At the frequency of 70 MHz, there is a higher incidence of the attack on the
vehicle, the location of the pilot, co-pilot, and commander may be affected.
Figure. 5 shows the results obtained with the source located to the left side of the
vehicle.
The source of the attack on the left side of the vehicle was located at a different
angle of pointing to the right side and it is observed that at no frequency value there
is a great influence of the attack on the armor of the vehicle.
Characterization and Simulation of a Propagation Model … 337

Fig. 2 Simulation source located in front of vehicle

3 MATLAB Application

Using the toolbox App Designer, we can develop an application that allows to deter-
mine the shielding effectiveness and calculate the losses when an armored vehicle is
being attacked with an electromagnetic weapon. EM weapons come in a variety of
forms, differing in cost, complexity, and lethality to electronic systems [4].
App Designer integrates the two main tasks involved in creating an app: the
organization of the visual components of a graphical user interface (GUI) and the
programming of the app’s behavior. It is the recommended environment to create
apps in MATLAB [5].
338 J. D. Alvarez et al.

Fig. 3 Simulation source located to back of vehicle

Fig. 4 Simulation source located to right side of vehicle

Fig. 5 Simulation source located to left side of vehicle

Characterization and Simulation of a Propagation Model … 339

3.1 Design of Application

The application has four tabs, two of them are main and are used to enter parameters
such as shielding thickness, relative permeability, electrical conductivity, frequency,
etc. At the other tab, it’s possible to view the results with a graphic. The use of
application for the users is easy and also, it’s possible to download a user manual.
Figure 5 shows the Main Tab where it’s possible to enter the necessary parameter
to calculate de losses for shielding effectiveness.

3.2 Results Using the Application

Entering the next parameters:

• Conductivity: 16,558,500 s/m (Aluminum 5083)
• Relative Permeability: 1 (For the Aluminum)
• Shielding thickness: 3 cm
• Antenna frequency: 600 MHz
• Frequency range for analysis: 10–100 MHz
• Distance (antenna to shielding): 6 m
Once that the parameters have been entered at the Results Tab click the calculate
button to see the resulting graphic of shielding effectiveness [dB] in function to
frequency.
Figure 6 shows the shielding effectiveness result with the entered parameters. We
can determine that the shielding is effective against an electromagnetic attack, the
losses are high, therefore for cause damage to electronics systems inside the vehicle,
it´s necessary to use an electromagnetic weapon with high power.
The developed application is useful for a quick analysis about the armor of the
military vehicle (Fig. 7).

4 Conclusions and Future Investigations

• It was determined that the main electronic systems that the armored vehicles of the
AMX-13 family of the Land Force have are Thompson TRVP13 communication
radios which are of the original manufacture and the Motorola DGM8500 E radio
that has adapted to the vehicle.
• It was determined that the armor material with which the armored vehicles of
the AMX-13 family of the Land Force have been constructed is 5083 Aluminum
whose electrical conductivity is 16,558,500 s/m and relative permeability of 1, key
parameters for simulations in Feko, and propagation loss analysis and shielding
efficiency in MATLAB.
340 J. D. Alvarez et al.

Fig. 6 Developed application

Fig. 7 Shielding effectiveness

Characterization and Simulation of a Propagation Model … 341

• It was determined that a propagation model based on losses due to absorption,

reflection and a factor of multiple reflections allows to determine the attenuation
in dB when an electromagnetic signal strikes a shield, with which the efficiency
of the shield against an electromagnetic attack is also known.
• It was determined that at the frequency of 70 MHz the electromagnetic waves that
reach the shield are concentrated in a large amount in the area of the driver that
is where the electronic systems of the vehicle are located and induce currents,
which with powers from 500 W to 1.5 KW they manage to disable these systems
since these induced currents are superior to those supported by these electronic
devices.
• It is determined that armored vehicles of the AMX-13 family of the Land Force
have an effective shield in the case of an electromagnetic attack that intends to
damage the electronic systems inside and that in order to violate that armor and
thus damage those systems, use a high power electromagnetic source for the
attack since it was determined that at a power of 1.5 KW, currents greater than
3 A are induced inside the vehicle that achieves disable the electronic devices of
the vehicle.
• The development and construction about electromagnetic guns with military
applications presents an investigation point for the future, this weapon could
destroy a shielding not just cause damage in the electronics systems.
• For the future can do the study about shielding effectiveness with all armored
vehicles of the Land Force and can be included Aircraft of Air Force and Naval
Force.
• An interesting theme of investigation for the future is about new shielding
materials to protect the electronics inside the armored vehicles.

References

1. Evans, R.W.: Design guidelines for shielding effectiveness, current carrying capability, and the
enhancement of conductivity of composite materials. NASA Contractor Report 4784, 19–27
(1997)
2. Henry. W. Ott.: Electromagnetic Compatibility. 1st end. A John Wiley & Sons. Hoboken, New
Jersey (2009)
3. Altair Feko, https://altairhyperworks.com/product/FEKO. Last accessed 2019/12/12
4. Miller, C.R.: Electromagnetic pulse threats in 2010. Defense Technical Information Center,
pp. 385–389 (2010)
5. The MathWorks. https://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab/app-designer.html. Last
accessed 2019/12/12
Public Order Disruption Event Detection
Based on IoT Technology. An Approach
for the Improvement of Public Security
Conditions

Pablo Albán, López Roberto, Alexander Mejía, Isaac Vallejo, Itaty Alban,
Shakira Cofre, and Esteban Molina

Abstract The institutions that are responsible for the security of the state, in many
scenarios, face insurgent groups and organized crime that put people’s lives at risk.
So, these institutions should tend to improve their equipment and training. Funda-
mentally, the use of technology should allow to improve the procedures, techniques,
and tactics used in military and police operations. Today, a great technological trend
is within reach, this is a communication technology based on the Internet of Things
or IoT. This study proposes the development of a solution based on the IoT paradigm
in the field of security and defense. This will allow the timely recognition of public
order alteration and unrest that will allow time planning and fast displacements in
operations, while considering geographic locations and the optimization of resources.
It is intended to provide a solution that improves the capacity and response time in
operations, through the capture of information in real time. Likewise, it will allow the
sharing of information to the necessary units. The results achieved show the potential
emergence of a new system of surveillance and recognition of abnormal based on
sensors and IoT.

Keywords Internet of Things · Public security · Sensors

1 Introduction

Since the emergence of conventional wars, the use of technology has marked sig-
nificant differences in the strategic, operational and tactical execution of military
operations. Since the Second World War, the importance and precedence of technol-
ogy has been noted in the tactics, techniques, and procedures used by the institutions

P. Albán (B) · A. Mejía · I. Vallejo · I. Alban · S. Cofre · E. Molina

Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolqui 171103, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
L. Roberto
Universidad Regional Autonóma de los Andes UNIANDES, Ambato 180215, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 343
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_30
344 P. Albán et al.

responsible for state security, when challenged by public order alterations, frontier
trespassing, and/or rights violations
The process of globalization and the increasingly recurring participation of non-
state actors, both outside and inside a state, is a genesis-like, varied and imminent
reality. Therefore, it is not alien to any nation, to seek to enter the modern dynam-
ics that give benefits to international relationships and development. On the other
hand, security threats to a state have also changed, acquiring multidimensional and
asymmetric characteristics that change its internal management and assessment [1].
In this sense; both inter-state and intra-state armed conflicts are materialized
by conventional warfare, terrorism, transnational organized crime, drug trafficking,
migration, environmental deterioration, among others that constitute threats to the
integrity of a nation. These threats, many times, cannot be confronted in a traditional
way, so they force states to redesign their security strategies. This provokes estab-
lishing public and/or private, national and/or international response systems, whose
resources; human, operational and technical, allow to meet the needs of survival,
reactivation, and development, which guarantee its integrity and permanence, within
and outside its borders [2, 3].
One of the tools with which a state has to consolidate resources to face threats
and risks is the IT infrastructure and information systems installed throughout its
national territory. Also, another element of support is the military communications
equipment that allows the command and control of the operations that are carried
out in support of the civilian population, and that can be used in cases of aggression,
international or internal armed conflict, serious internal unrest, public calamity or
natural disasters [4].
The Ecuadorian Armed Forces have a nationwide telecommunications infrastruc-
ture. However, in this study, a possibility is proposed that a strategic network of
military or police communications should incorporate new technologies, such as the
Internet of Things (IoT) technology that will mitigate the effects of these threats.
Hence the need to share information through the information and communication
technologies systems, forces the materialization of new communication networks
between different institutions [5, 6].
The present work proposes an improvement in obtaining information through the
use of sensors and typical IoT devices, in order to contribute specifically with the
detection of events of public order alteration and improve the security conditions of
the citizenship.
Section 2 of this article explores the background and related works related to this
investigation. Section 3 describes the architectures, system, and operation of this IoT
based proposal, by describing methodologically each element. Section 4 details the
way of experimentation. Section 5 shows results and finally Sect. 6 gives conclusions
and a dive into possible future works related to this investigation.
Public Order Disruption Event Detection … 345

2 Tendencies, Perspective and Prospective of IoT

Current technology gives strategic support to the most sophisticated military opera-
tion across the world. In base on a preliminary literature review, it was found that the
mentioned support is based on the usage of WSN, WiFi, Cellphones, and Satellite
networks. For example, to monitor soldiers during mission, Gondalia and others [7]
propose a real-time system that tracks location and monitors the health of soldiers
via a GPS module and Wireless Body Area Sensors (WBASn). Patil and Ambedkar
[8] present a system like [7], with the difference that IoT devices are used and all
data is transmitted to a command center. Also, Iyer and Patil [9] present a portable,
useful and low-cost system based on Arduino and global positioning, focused on
monitoring (location and temperature) soldiers during military operations.
In the military security area, multiple studies and investigations have been made.
For example, Anuradha and others [10] propose a walkie-talkie secure system based
on the cardiac signal frequency, like biometric systems. This system makes use of a
wireless network with an IoT based system to detect the ECG of soldiers, securing
the communication. If the cardiac pulse is of the registered users, the connections
are made between the walkie-talkie and the command center, if not, no connection
is made. The walkie-talkie also has global positioning module.
Ziegler’s proposal describes a solution centered on using IoT and wireless het-
erogeneous sensors. This solution has two new algorithms for crowd analysis. This
allows for detecting critical areas, countercurrents that could put at-risk people in the
crowd. Different aggrupation algorithms are compared to get an effective and robust
crowd detection. The results were satisfactory for the detection process, but not for
the analysis [11].
Vithiya et al.’s investigation, IoT is presented as a tool to track for survivor of
remote locations. This allows for the monitoring of temperature, heartbeat, atmo-
sphere gas composition, current geographic location, and the transmission of this
data to a central database. Each of these are easily visualized in a web site. With
these results, tests have been planned in real soldiers and security improvements
[12].
Meiyi Ma presents a conscious surveillance architecture bases in simulated sectors
of New York City. All of this with the object of the event, unrest and alteration
detection in public spaces. A demonstration was held in three situations. The first in
the city of Manhattan without any smart service. The second one with smart services
implementation. Finally, the third one used smart service with CityGuard, showing
off conflict and insecurities detection [13, 14].
Another Meiyi Ma investigation presented CityResolver as smart support for
addressing smart cities. It used a whole linear programming based method to generate
a small group of a possible solution and a focus in verification based in temporal
signal logic to calcite the possible impact of each option. CityResolved proved to be
useful when comparing just using CityGuard [15].
From another perspective, Boris Pokric describes an approach based in the
involvement of citizens based in the mix of the digital and physical world. EkoNET,
346 P. Albán et al.

based on IoT presents real-time monitoring of air quality and other atmospheric
data. It has augmented reality data visualization for mobile platforms. This way, this
real-time data is used in the ARvatar videogame [16].
As can be seen, there is a great deal of investigations and advancements in these
topics. But they are not fully focused on the detection of events, unrests or alterations
in public spaces. In this context, this investigation proposes and system for detecting
unrest events that damage public order; mainly focused on public security, giving
the ability to establish public and political control strategies.

3 Architecture, System, and Operation

3.1 Architecture

The proposed system has an architecture that uses different devices for monitoring
the level of gas of presence of fire in an environment. All the data gathered can be
sent to the cloud so it could be shown in a simple and useful manner through a web
interface. Based in Fig. 1, four principal elements can be found:
• Hardware
• Sigfox Cloud
• AWS (Amazon Web Services) Cloud
• Web client.

Fig. 1 System general architecture

Public Order Disruption Event Detection … 347

Fig. 2 Gas and fire detector circuit schematic

3.2 Hardware

The used hardware has the capacity to send information to the cloud. An Arduino and
a Thinxtra Sigfox development kit had been used. In addition, a fire sensor (LM393)
and a CO gas sensor (MQ-7) had been added. The development kit also includes
pressure and temperature sensor. Figure 2 presents the circuit designed.
To make everything work, custom code has been developed that sends the sensor
data to Sigfox Cloud. This data is sent through radio frequencies based on sigfox
specifications and limitations. Messages sent can’t exceed 12 bytes of information
and only 140 messages can be sent per day.
The message size and max number per day are controlled using simple data types
and timed message deliveries. All sensors are limited to only use 16 bits or 2 bytes
and a message is sent every 10 min.

3.3 Cloud Services

Sigfox Cloud
Sigfox Cloud allows the data from the hardware node is received and redirected to
other cloud service providers. For this to work, the sigfox kit inside the node needs to
be registered in a specific Sigfox Cloud account. All data that is sent from the node
arrives in the form of unprocessed bytes and they have to be parsed to a readable
format. This is made setting a byte interpretation specification, like this:
temperature: uint:16 pressure: uint:16 gas: uint:16 fire: uint:16

To allow that the received data is sent to other cloud providers, in this case AWS,
is necessary to setup callbacks. These callbacks redirect the info to a HTTP endpoint.
In this case, the endpoint came from an AWS lambda function. For better use of the
348 P. Albán et al.

callbacks, it is necessary to setup the body that will be sent. This body needs, besides
the processed sensor data, the id of the node and location.
AWS
All captured data is redirected and stored in AWS. The web site then calls services
in AWS to show the necessary information. Two services had been used: Dynamo
DB and AWS Lambda.
• Dynamo DB is a key-value non-relational database provided by AWS. This
database is used to store all data captured by the hardware nodes.
• AWS Lambda as a serverless functions service. Two functions with endpoints
were created. One endpoints store data into DynamoDB and the other endpoint
gives the data from DynamoDB to the web client.

3.4 Web Client

The web client or web site allows that all the information is presented in a simple,
easy to read and is constantly updated. There are three fundamental elements that
allow for an accurate presentation of information. These elements are as follows:
• A map, with the use of Google Maps API, as in Fig. 3, shows pins where a
hardware node is deployed. These pins change colors based on the status of the
node.
• A table that shows the same information that of the map, but with text only.
• A history page that shows all captured data across time.

Fig. 3 Fire alert map

Public Order Disruption Event Detection … 349

4 Experimentation

4.1 Testing Scenario

Based on the sensors used and architecture implemented testing is needed to under-
stand the usefulness of the elements presented. This way, the testing will help validate
the investigation. The testing was made in CICTE, located inside “Universidad de
las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE”. Old tires in the fire were used to simulate conditions
where fire is present.
For the testing process was needed: a calibrated fire sensor and a CO sensor. The
fire sensor is calibrated with a power meter that adjusts the sensibility of the sensor.
With this and a default measurement of CO in normal conditions, testing is done:
• Prepare the circuit as shown in Fig. 2.
• Power the Arduino with a 5 V input, preferably a PC.
• Enable all cloud services, AWS and Sigfox Cloud.
• Without the fire calibrate the fire sensor LM393 until its LED is off.
• Take the default level of CO with the MQ-7 sensor as a point of reference.
• Turn on a tire.
• Adjust the fire sensor until it activates when it finds fire from the tire.
Closed environment testing scenario
In contrast with the open environment test, measurements were made in a closed
space. A closed space is easier to control and lacks strong wind currents and other
meteorological factors. This way, the sensors are not affected by these variables and
more precise measurements could be made. The steps taken for this test was:
• Initialize and prepare the testing procedure.
• Prepare a closed environment where CO gases can concentrate when burning tires.
• Measure the levels of CO with the sensors based on previous tests.
• The number of measurements needs to be the same as the previous tests.
• Compare and contrast the obtained measurements with the previous test. This
way a comparative curve graph and histograms could be made so the differences
between the data could be understood.

5 Results

For the testing, five samples were gathered. Each sample had measurements of levels
of CO in ppm in four different conditions. These conditions were: Default environ-
ment without fire, open environment with sensor within 5 m form a burning tire, open
environment with sensor within 1 m form a burning tire, and a close environment
with a burning tire. Table 1 presents a summary of the results gathered.
350 P. Albán et al.

Table 1 Data gathered from the testing made

Sample Open environment Open environment Default Closed
(fire) [5 m] [ppm] (fire) [1 m] [ppm] environment (no environment
fire) [ppm] [ppm]
1 25.44 31.49 24.53 61.41
2 26.44 33.84 21.37 65.28
3 30.59 6.74 22.29 55.24
4 30.59 63.75 25.56 61.11
5 33.84 28.49 49.28 64.55

Based on the testing done and Fig. 4, the ppm of CO quantity is greater in closed
environments and closer to reality and the situation trying to detect. Also, is important
to note that the results are more precise when the sensor is at a shorter distance from
the fire. When the larger the distance from the fire, the sensor shows data that is like
the default CO measurement in the environment. In addition, it was determined that
when the sensor shows sudden changes in data without changes or environment, it
mostly due to faulty and imprecise captures.
In the base of the testing done and Fig. 5, the sensors used are better suited for
closed environments. The CO sensor is more precise and consistent, giving results
closer to real life. This happens mainly because of a lack of strong air currents or
wind.

Fig. 4 Ppm of CO concentration in each experiment

Public Order Disruption Event Detection … 351

Fig. 5 CO levels when a fire is presented in closed (orange) and open (blue environments
comparison

6 Conclusions

The sensors and tools used during this experiment, when using radiofrequency sig-
nals, can without internet connectivity limitations send useful data. This allows for a
rather useful scope of surveillance and early response to any incidents. Public order
forces can find these tools as a meaningful way to respond to get to know and respond
to incidents regarding the public order.
Based on the testing made, normal conditions have 20–30 ppm of CO. When a fire
is present, in this case, a tire was the source, 50 ppm of CO is indication enough of an
incident when tested in a closed and controlled environment. Effective results could
only be gathered when the sensor was within 1 m distance from the fire, making
it really limited for mass use. These setbacks are because of the simple and cheap
construction of the sensors.
Sadly, when testing the sensor in an open environment, the results are even more
limited than in a closed space. Due to a constant and unpredictable airflow, the
sensor cannot gather conclusive levels of CO of the atmosphere, making them rather
useless. The usage of better and more diverse gas sensors are needed and other types
of sensors to detect fire existence.
Based on the current approach, several improvements are needed. While the over-
all architecture and data delivery present to be useful, the sensors used are ineffective.
Improving the sensors used is necessary. Also implementing new elements to detect
like tear gas in a specific area. Lastly, expanding the delivery of information with a
phone app. This is a way for better solutions for responding to threats to the public
order and a faster way to restoring peace.
352 P. Albán et al.

References

1. Alda Mejías, S., Sampo, C.: Las Fuerzas Armadas en América Latina ante el crimen organizado.
Real Instituto Elcano-Centro de Estudios Estratégicos del Ejército del Perú (Lima, Perú), (2019)
2. Guamán, J., Toapanta, M. Orizaga, J.: An information security approach in the armed forces
of Ecuador, p. 5, (2017)
3. Narváez, C.H.P.. Vélez, A.F.J., Fernández, R.C., Téllez, O.F.: Multilevel military leadership
model: Correlation between the levels and styles of military leadership using MLQ in the
ecuadorian armed forces. In: Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Singapore,
2020, pp. 161–170. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9155-2_14
4. Albán Ruiz, P.F., Montoya Lara, L.H., de Jesús Pereira, A.M.: Conformation of a non tripulated
tactical center of the army for intervention in natural or anthropic disasters in Ecuador. In:
Recent Advances in Information Systems and Technologies, Cham, 2017, pp. 586–595. https://
doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56541-5_60
5. Renato, C., María, N.: Technologies’ application, rules, and challenges of information secu-
rity on information and communication technologies. In: 2015 Asia-Pacific Conference on
Computer Aided System Engineering, 2015, pp. 380–386. https://doi.org/10.1109/apcase.
2015.74
6. Corral-De-Witt, D., Carrera, E.V., Matamoros-Vargas, J.A., Muñoz-Romero, S., Rojo-Álvarez,
J.L., Tepe, K.: From E-911 to NG-911: Overview and challenges in Ecuador. IEEE Access,
vol. 6, pp. 42578–42591, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2018.2858751
7. Gondalia, A., Dixit, D., Parashar, S., Raghava, V., Sengupta, A., Sarobin, V.R.: IoT-based
healthcare monitoring system for war soldiers using machine learning. Procedia Comput. Sci.
vol. 133, pp. 1005-1013, (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2018.07.075
8. Patii, N., Iyer, B.: Health monitoring and tracking system for soldiers using Internet
of Things(IoT). In: 2017 International Conference on Computing, Communication and
Automation (ICCCA), 2017, pp. 1347–1352. https://doi.org/10.1109/ccaa.2017.8230007
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Syst. Assur. Eng. Manag. 9(6), 1294–1301 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-018-0727-8
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to detect the ECG of soldiers using GPS and GPRS. (20180
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turbances for enhancing public safety. In: 2016 5th International Conference on Smart Cities
and Green ICT Systems (SMARTGREENS), pp. 1–8 (2016)
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Computation, Automation and Networking (ICSCAN), pp. 1–5 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1109/
icscan.2019.8878711
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erogeneous services of a smart city. In: 2017 IEEE/ACM Second International Conference on
Internet-of-Things Design and Implementation (IoTDI), pp. 275–276 (2017)
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tion in smart cities. In: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Internet-of-
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olution in smart cities. In: 2018 ACM/IEEE 9th International Conference on Cyber-Physical
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16. Pokrić, B., Krčo, S., Pokrić, M., Knežević, P., Jovanović, D.: Engaging citizen communities
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https://doi.org/10.1109/riot.2015.7104905
Vibration Effects of the Fixed-Wing
Aircraft of the Army Aviation
from Ecuador on the Human Body

Víctor Yépez , Isabel Arcentales, María León, and Pablo Caiza

Abstract The study of the seats of the pilot crew in the aircraft of the Aviation
of the Army from Ecuador and the effects they cause on the human body due to
the transmission of vibrations through the back, seat, and floor is described. Five
transport aircraft are evaluated: CN-235, CASA 212, Aravá T-201, CESSNA 206,
and Beechcraft King Air B-200, based on ISO 2631-1 (1997). The evaluation was
carried out by taking measurements on the seats, backrests, and floor of the cockpit,
using acceleration sensors Waspmote–Libelium, which allows the evaluation of fre-
quencies until 50 Hz. In order to have greater certainty in the evaluation, the flights
were divided into different phases according to the type of aircraft, considering as
common: engine start, takeoff, free flight, descent, landing. The processed data is
compared with the flight records, and the exposure level in the aircraft is determined.
Human exposure is defined by two types of vibrations: whole-body vibration and
local vibrations; they are associated with complications in the occupational health
of specific machinery operators. Aircraft pilot’s reports indicate that exposure to
vibrations triggers changes in health, well-being, and professional performance. The
incidence of vibrations in the human body is examined as an overview of the prob-
lem, along with the review of related documents, which are discussed in order to
determine the possible consequences of exposure and present recommendations for
handling the issue.

Keywords Aircraft · Whole-body vibration · Local vibration · Accelerometer ·

Health aircraft pilots

V. Yépez (B) · I. Arcentales · P. Caiza

Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
M. León
Dirección de Seguridad Integral del Ejército, Quito, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 353
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_31
354 V. Yépez et al.

1 Introduction

Aircraft flights are exposed to vibrations and noise. Exposure to high vibrations for
prolonged times can have effects on the physical and mental health of the pilot, such
as fatigue, decreased reaction capacity, and decision-making during the flight. [1].
In a study conducted on the C-130 J Hercules aircraft, [2] determines that horizontal
vibrations in the cargo area can cause discomfort and fatigue.
The study of the aircraft of the Aviation of the Army of Ecuador, has a research
base with the objective of determining the effects of the vibrations produced by
the aircraft in the different phases of flight, the procedures detailed in ISO 2631-
1 (1997) “Mechanical Vibrations and Shocks - Evaluation of Human Exposure to
Whole-Body Vibrations” are taken. This standard defines the methods for measuring
periodic, random and transient vibration in the whole body, focusing on the frequency
range of 0.5–80 Hz (for health, comfort, and perception) and 0.1–0.5 Hz for motion
sickness.

2 Development of the Experiment

The vibrations must be measured in relation to a coordinate system, which starts

from a place that is considered as the point where the vibrations enter the human
body. The main areas of contact considered in this, and in other cases, where the
analysis is performed on seated people, are the support surface of the seat, the back
of the seat, and the feet [3].
In each aircraft, it was planned to locate the Waspmote—Libelium acceleration
sensors at the base of the seat, the back and the floor of the cockpit. Each location
depended on the space that provides the ease of positioning the sensor. However,
some aircraft do not have enough space, so the study refers exclusively to the data
obtained at the indicated locations [4].
The vibration that is transmitted to the body is measured on the support surface,
so that: at the seat, the sensor was located below the ischial tuberosities; on the back
was performed in the main area of the body support and on feet it was performed on
the surface where they perch more often [4]. Only in the CESSNA 206, the evaluation
had been done in all the three positions due to the space required to locate the sensors.
In the other aircraft, the signals were taken in the seat and on the floor.
The experiment begins by locating the areas of the aircraft that would be more
suitable for vibration analysis (according to the aforementioned standard). The mea-
suring equipment is located, considering the local axes (sensors) and global axes
(according to the seat); It is important to avoid sudden movements or any similar
that does not obey the environmental vibration of the aircraft, for this reason, the
equipment must be fixed with tape or some type of resistant adhesive.
The accelerometer used is a Waspmode Smart Cities, connected by a USB data
cable to a computer with the data reader program called “wasmote”. Its battery is
Vibration Effects of the Fixed-Wing Aircraft … 355

of long duration; however, the program can store between 50 and 55 min of data,
which are: time and acceleration in milli gravities in the three orthogonal planes.
This sensor allows the evaluation of 50 Hz frequencies.
Accelerometers are started minutes before the engine starts, with the aim of start-
ing the measurement at all flight stages. The data was obtained on flights of different
aircraft. The general flight conditions were similar to the routine ones; likewise, the
routes that the flights followed, obey routes known to the pilots and for which they
carry out flights periodically. These conditions prevent the study affects their daily
activities or that the resulting vibrations are different from those to which the pilots
endure daily.

3 Interpretation of the Results

ISO 2631-1 (1997) provides the methodology for processing data obtained during the
tests performed, primarily evaluates the acceleration signals and by Fourier Trans-
form the dominant frequencies are identified. Finally, on the vibrations transmitted
to the whole body, the evaluation of the risks of the vibrations is based on the calcula-
tion of the daily exposure A (8) expressed as the equivalent continuous acceleration
for a period of 8 h. The flight stages analyzed are engine ignition, engine power test,
taxiing, takeoff, ascent, flight, descent, landing, taxiing, engine shutdown [5].
The effective value of the frequency-weighted acceleration uses the following
information: a is the effective value of the acceleration (m/s2 ), w is the frequency
weighting, aw is the effective value of the frequency-weighted acceleration, aw (t) is
the instantaneous value of the frequency-weighted acceleration, whether translational
or rotational, as a function of time, measured in meters per square seconds (m/s2 )
or radians per square seconds (rad/s2 ), T is the measurement duration in seconds; it
is expressed according to the following Eq. (1), (2) and (3) or its equivalents in the
frequency abscissa [6]:
⎡ ⎤1/2
T
1
aw = ⎣ 2
aw(t) dt⎦ (1)
T
0
1 1
aw1 ∗ T = aw1 ∗ T 2 ,
2 (2)

1 1
aw1 ∗ T 4 = aw1 ∗ T 4 . (3)

According to the research carried out, it was shown that the integral of Eq. (1) is
not necessary when working with discrete values, so it is expressed as Eq. (4):

n 
 21
1
aw = aw2 i (4)
i=1
T
356 V. Yépez et al.

Table 1 Criteria for the

Comfort Assessment (0.5–80 Hz)
assessment of exposure to
vibrations on comfort Condition Vibration intensity Passenger sensations
0 <0.315 m/s2 Not uncomfortable
1 0.315 m/s2 –0.63 m/s2 A bit uncomfortable
2 0.5 m/s2 –1 m/s2 Quite uncomfortable
3 0.8 m/s2 –1.6 m/s2 Uncomfortable
4 1.25 m/s2 –2.5 m/s2 Very uncomfortable
5 >2 m/s2 Extremely
uncomfortable

3.1 Comfort

There is no conclusive evidence to support universal dependence overtime on the

effects of vibration on comfort. Obtained the total value of the weighted acceleration,
it is compared with the criteria in Table 1 [7, 8]:

3.2 Health

ISO 2631-1 (1997), presents Fig. 1 [7, 9], for which the analysis is performed using
the strip corresponding to Eq. (2), which is related to Eq. (1) previously presented
and refers to the quadratic relation while Eq. (3) refers to the relation grade 4, which
is not used in this asses. The interpretation of results evaluates corrective measures if
they have a prolonged period of exposure and if the weighted acceleration is marked
inside the range. Similarly, greater certainty is established in the evaluation, if the
exposure is 4–8 h.

4 Results

In order to ease the understanding of the results obtained and analyzed during the
different flights, they are presented in bar diagrams to summarize the comfort criteria
based on Table 1, the ordinates show the sum of the values of the comfort evaluation
in all the stages and the abscissas present the condition of the passenger sensations.
Scatter plots are used to identify the critical values that affect the health superimposed
in Fig. 1, using strip corresponding to Eq. (2), so that the values of the 10 stages
studied are quantified for a better appreciation of the impact that vibrations have on
the human body.
Vibration Effects of the Fixed-Wing Aircraft … 357

10

6.3

4
Weighted acceleration (m/s2)

Equation (2)
2.5

1.6

0.63 Equation (3)

0.4
0.315
0.25
10 dB

0.16

0 10
10 min 0.5 1 2 4 8 24
(Hours)

Fig. 1 Guidance surveillance areas in regards to health

Fig. 2 Impact on comfort in CESSNA 206 (Comfort)

the CESSNA 206 aircraft 4 Seat
IMPACT

2 Floor

0 Backrest
5 4 3 1
Condition

4.1 Cessna 206 Aircraft

The results are presented according to the following detail: Fig. 2 shows that there are
high levels of discomfort in the seat and back; Fig. 3 presents values of 3.82, 3.99 and
3.71, and 4.12 for the weighted acceleration, which enter the control strip, however,
due to the short exposure periods, they do not represent dangerous conditions for the
health of the pilots in none of the phases evaluated for the CESSNA 206 aircraft.

4.2 Beechcraft King Air B-200 Aircraft

The results are presented according to the following detail: Fig. 4 shows that the seat
is the one with the highest level of discomfort. Figure 5 presents values of 3.49, 3.87,
358 V. Yépez et al.

Weighted acceleraƟon (m/s2) CESSNA 206 (Health)

10

1
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48

0.1

0.01
Hours

Fig. 3 Health impact on the CESSNA 206 aircraft

BeechcraŌ (Comfort)
6
IMPACT

4 Seat
2 Floor
0
5 4 3 1
CondiƟon

Fig. 4 Impact on comfort in the Beechcraft aircraft

BeechcraŌ (Health)
10
Weighted acceleraƟon (m/s2)

1
0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48

0.1

0.01
Hours

Fig. 5 Health impact on the Beechcraft aircraft

Vibration Effects of the Fixed-Wing Aircraft … 359

and 5.54, for the weighted acceleration entering the control strip, however, due to the
short exposure periods, they do not represent conditions of danger to the health of
the pilots in any of the phases evaluated for the Beechcraft King Air B-200 aircraft.

4.3 CN 235 Aircraft

The results are presented according to the following detail: Fig. 6 shows a low level
of discomfort in the seat components. Figure 7 presents values of 5.34, 5.51, 4.04,
and 4.14, for the weighted acceleration entering the control strip, however, due to
the short exposure periods, they do not represent conditions of danger to the health
of the pilots in any of the phases evaluated for the CN 235 aircraft.

CN 235 (Comfort)
5
Impact

3
Seat
1
Floor
-1
5 4 3 1
CondiƟon

Fig. 6 Impact on comfort in the CN 235 aircraft

CN 235 (Health)
10
Weighted acceleraƟon (m/s2)

1
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48

0.1

0.01
Hours

Fig. 7 Health impact on the CN 235 aircraft

360 V. Yépez et al.

Aravá (Comfort)
6

Impact
4
Seat
2
0 Floor
5 4 3 1
CondiƟon

Fig. 8 Impact on comfort in the Aravá aircraft

Aravá (Health)
10
Weighted acceleration (m/s 2)

1
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.26 0.51 1.02 2.05 4.10 8.19 16.38

0.1

0.01
Hours

Fig. 9 Health impact on the Aravá aircraft

4.4 Aravá T-201 Aircraft

The results are presented according to the following detail: Fig. 8 shows that there
is a low level of discomfort in the seat components. Figure 9 does not present values
for the weighted acceleration that enter the control strip, so they do not represent
conditions of danger to the health of the pilots in any of the phases evaluated for the
Aravá T-201 aircraft.

4.5 CASA 212 Aircraft

The results are presented according to the following detail: Fig. 10 shows that there
is a low level of discomfort in the seat components. Figure 11 presents values of 4.55,
4.32 and 3.72; for the weighted acceleration entering the control strip, however, due
to the short exposure periods, they do not represent conditions of danger to the health
of the pilots in any of the phases evaluated for the CASA 212 aircraft.
Vibration Effects of the Fixed-Wing Aircraft … 361

CASA 212 (Comfort)

10

Impact
5
Floor
0
5 4 3 1
CondiƟon

Fig. 10 Impact on comfort in the CASA 212 aircraft

CASA 212 (Health)

10
Weighted acceleraƟon (m/s2)

1
0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48

0.1

0.01
Hours

Fig. 11 Health impact on the CASA 212 aircraft

5 Conclusions and Recommendations

The study of the vibrations produced in the fixed-wing aircraft of the Aviation of the
Army of Ecuador has great importance and application in the occupational health
of military pilot staff, since the effects that could occur decrease performance and
reaction capabilities while driving the aircraft. In this study, the impact on the comfort
of military personnel is denoted as a subjective and difficult to identify parameter
because it is up to each crew member to assess the comfort provided by the seat,
despite this, ISO 2631-1 (1997) proposes limit values to identify the conditions that
influence the pilot. It was determined that the most uncomfortable elements are: the
back and the base of the seat, having the highest rate that occurs in the CESSNA
206, while the other aircraft have tolerable levels of comfort.
Regarding the effects on the health of the pilots, due to the exposure they have
during the flight, it was identified that by dividing it into phases the evaluation has
more detail in the measurements, so the exposure times do not represent a threat.
However, it is recommended that with the described values improvements be made
362 V. Yépez et al.

to the support systems in order to increase the health security for the aircraft and
their crew. It is advisable to carry out the measurement process in the other places of
the aircraft, to identify effects on the cargo area and the flight mechanics personnel.

References

1. Smith, S.D.: Dynamic characteristics and human perception of vibration aboard a military
propeller aircraft. Int. J. Ind. Ergon. 38, 868–879 (2008)
2. Ilić, Z.: Impact of pilot seat position on the seat’s vibration spectrum on piston propeller aircraft.
In: 6th International Scientific Conference on Defensive Technologies, Belgrade, Serbia (2014)
3. Smith, S.D.: Seat Vibration in military propeller aircraft characterization, exposure assessment,
and mitigation. Aviation Space Environ. Med. 77(1) (2006)
4. Yépez, V., Arcentales, I.: Efecto de la vibración de las aeronaves de la Aviación del Ejército
del Ecuador en el cuerpo humano. Centro de Investigación de Aplicaciones Militares CICTE,
Quito (2019)
5. Instituto Português da Qualidade: Vibrações mecânicas e choque—Avaliação da exposição do
corpo inteiro a vibrações Parte 1 - Requisitos gerais (ISO 2631-1:1997). Instituto Português da
Qualidade, Monte de Caparica (1997)
6. Hopcroft R.: C-130 J Human Vibration. Australia Government, Department of Defense (2005)
7. Begoña, J.S.: Vibraciones cuerpo entero. Centro Nacional de Verificación de Maquinaria—
CNVM (2014)
8. NEC INEN, Mechanical vibration and shock—Evaluation of human exposure to whole-body
vibration. ISO 2631-1, (1997)
9. Gualotuña, E.P.: Medición y análisis de las vibraciones mecánicas en un bus de transporte de
pasajeros y sus efectos en la salud y confort mediante la norma ISO 2631. Quito (2016)
10. Marjanen, Y.: Validation and improvement of the ISO 2631-1 (1997) standard method for
evaluating discomfort from whole-body vibration in a multi-axis environment. Loughborough
University, Loughborough (2010)
Determination of Optimal Procedures
for Maintenance and Repair Operations
of the GDU-620 Garmin Applied
to the DA20C-1 Aircraft

Margarita Palma, Flor Garcés, Samaniego Julio, and Pablo Albán

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to determine the optimal procedure for the
repair and maintenance of the Garmin GDU-620 applied to the aircraft DA20C-
1 for the basic training and training of future pilots of the Ecuadorian Air Force.
The aircraft has a Garmin GDU-620 as part of the Garmin G500 integrated system
where it presents all the information of navigation instruments and map types, this
is formed by two screens PFD (Primary Flight Display) and MFD (Multi-Function
Display). This system usually shows faults while night flights were made, once
analyzed the faults that are presented in the GDU 620 system, the preventive and
corrective maintenance actions are executed, such as maintenance of the internal
and external electronic connectors, maintenance of the electronic cards, adequate
reconnection of data buses. Later it was installed in the aircraft, where it was evident
that the discrepancies were solved and the operation of the equipment in question
was carried out without incident. If these discrepancies of failure appear in the GDU-
620 equipment displays, it is recommended that the same preventive and corrective
maintenance work be performed in order to resolve the discrepancy.

Keywords Procedure · Maintenance · Repair · GDU-620 · Implementation

M. Palma · F. Garcés · S. Julio

Departamento de Seguridad and Defensa, Unidad Académica Especial Salinas
(ESMA—ESSUNA), Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Santa Elena 240104, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
F. Garcés
e-mail: [email protected]
S. Julio
e-mail: [email protected]
P. Albán (B)
Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí 171103, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 363
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_32
364 M. Palma et al.

1 Introduction

The Military Aviation School “Cosme Renella Barbatto” (ESMA), which is located
in Salinas, Ecuador, offers two degrees in Aeronautical Science for the cadets who
aspire to become Pilots and Technicians of the Ecuadorian Air Force.
There have been 68 promotions of Pilots and Technicians Officers and 25 of
Specialists Officers, who have received high standard education in order to satisfy
institutional as well as national requirements. In the year 2012, the Ecuadorian Air
Force acquires 12 Diamond DA20C-1 Eclipse aircraft to provide the cadets with
flight training at the ESMA. The Canadian company “Diamond Aircraft Industries”
was in charge of on-site support, and flight instructor and maintenance training.
The aircrafts are used throughout the flight courses, the cockpit provides seating
for two pilots, which in this case are: the military instructor and the cadet. It is
important to clarify that this aircraft is not designed to cover long-distances or to
transport any kind of goods. Its maximum airspeed is 275 km/h, there are four
single-acting cylinders model Continental IO-240-B3B which is able to develop 125
HP of tensile strength depending on the specific modification (Avia.Pro 2015).
The aircraft is equipped with a GDU-620 Garmin display, which has a system
that provides the necessary information such as attitude (pitch and roll), rate of turn,
skip/slip, heading, airspeed, altitude and vertical speed to perform operations safely.
This digital data is more accurate than analogue instruments which are part of the
aircraft´s panel. It is also necessary to mention that this system makes the instruction
process easier due to its exactness and it is strategically located to relieve the workload
that the pilot has while flying, increasing the effectiveness and operational safety.

2 Objectives

To determine the optimal procedures for maintenance and repair operations of the
GDU620 Garmin applied to the DA20C-1 aircraft for the flight training process of
the future Pilot Officers of the Ecuadorian Air Force.

2.1 Maintenance

According to the Department of Military Education Programs (COED 2013), the

logistic function is in charge of preserving in optimal conditions all the equipment
including aircrafts, radars, combat vehicles, and weapons (p. 46).
For this reason, the Ecuadorian Air Force has developed systems, practices and
maintenance procedures to fix, update or repowering all the equipment based on
operational needs.
Determination of Optimal Procedures for Maintenance … 365

Table 1 Types of
Types of maintenance Application
maintenance
Planned Maintenance or flight hangars
Unscheduled Maintenance or flight hangars

Table 2 Maintenance tasks

Levels of Type of Application
maintenance maintenance
Organizational Unscheduled Maintenance or
flight hangars
Intermediate Planned and Maintenance or
unscheduled flight hangars
Deposit Planned and Hangars or
unscheduled aeronautic
industry

2.1.1 Types of Maintenance

Planned Maintenance

It consists of several inspections previously scheduled to prevent possible damages as

a result of routine aircraft operations. These procedures take place at the maintenance
hangar (COED 2013, p. 52).

Unscheduled Maintenance

It is performed to fix aircrafts or any kind of equipment which may be damaged

before or after any flight operation (Table 1).

2.1.2 Levels of Maintenance

The levels of maintenance are the specific maintenance inspections that are applied
to the aircrafts or equipment according to tasks required in each type of damage
(Table 2).

2.1.3 Levels of Maintenance

These are the places where the tasks are performed as well as the organization or
department responsible for authorizations and execution of maintenance procedures
(Table 3).
366 M. Palma et al.

Table 3 Levels of maintenance

Levels Responsible Type of maintenance Application
First level Organizational Unscheduled Flight hangars
Second level Intermediate Planned and unscheduled Maintenance hangars
Third level Deposit Planned and unscheduled Hangars and aeronautical
industry
Fourth level Manufacturer Producers

2.2 Manufacturer Repairs

2.2.1 GDU 620

El GDU 620 PFD/MFD is the device that displays the real-time true airspeed cal-
culations and selectable winds aloft data, as well as airplane ground speed, GPS
active waypoint, distance-to waypoint, desired/actual track. It is a suite of advanced
technology to replace six-pack of instruments (ADI, HSI/CDI, airspeed indicator,
altimeter, turn coordinator and vertical speed indicator all displayed on dual 6.5
color screens.

2.2.2 G-500 System

The G500 is an avionic system designed to replace the traditional pack of flight
instruments in the panel of an aircraft. (In many cases the existing airspeed indicator,
artificial horizon, and altimeter can be relocated to serve as standby instrumentation).
This is an integrated navigation and communication system which combines
instrumentation of primary flight, the information of navigation and the map which
is displayed on the screens. The G500 system is made of Line Replaceable Units
(LRU). They have a modular design and can be directly installed. Each LRU has a
particular function or set of functions that contribute to the system operations.
The system has the following Line Replaceable Units (LRU):
• The GDU 620 has dual VGA (640 × 480 pixels) 6.5 inch LCD displays;
• The left side of the GDU is a PFD and the right side is the MFD. The MFD shows
a moving map, flight plan, weather, and more;
• The PFD shows primary flight information, in place of traditional pitot-static and
gyroscopic systems and also provides an HSI for navigation;
• Attitude and Heading Reference Systems (AHRS);
• Temperature probe (GTP 59);
• Magnetometer (GMU 44), and;
• GNS 480, CNX 80, GNS 400 W series, GNS 500 W series, GTN 600 series, GTN
700 series or a compatible GPS navigator.
The aircraft system that is part of the repairing process (Figs. 1 and 2).
Determination of Optimal Procedures for Maintenance … 367

Fig. 1 Aircraft system

Fig. 2 LCD VGA screen

2.2.3 Technical Specifications GDU-620

See Fig. 3.
368 M. Palma et al.

Fig. 3 Physical characteristics

3 Methods and Procedures

According to Bowersox (2007) to determine analysis and selection procedures for

optimal repair and maintenance of the GDU-620 Garmin there are different type
of methods; in this research, it is applied a prioritization grid using gap selection
criteria which is a tool that helps to determine the optimal operational alternative of
this system.

3.1 Problem Identification

According to Hernández and Mendoza (2018) to accomplish all the flight missions,
pilots must have an efficient airworthy aircraft. The GDU Garmin 500 must be in the
best conditions because it is an important and useful tool that allows cadets to reach
their goals while flying.
Determination of Optimal Procedures for Maintenance … 369

3.2 Alternatives Development

To determine the best choice for this process, there was first brainstorming with
all the personnel in the Electronics Department to identify the possible gaps. They
suggested several alternatives to improve the GDU620 of the 500 Garmin system
in order to have an efficient airworthy aircraft which cadets can use in their flying
training process.

3.3 Identification of Gap Alternatives and Prioritization Grid

After identifying the most significant gaps, the alternatives which would effectively
contribute to improve the system are classified as well as the benefits they generate
to the organization.
The alternatives are shown in Table 4.

3.4 Identification of Gap Alternatives and Prioritization Grid

Once identified the most relevant gaps, the benefits to each of them are deter-
mined. This will contribute to the process of reaching the determination of effective
alternatives to improve the system (Table 5).

3.5 Alternative Evaluation

Once the benefits have been identified, the prioritization and selection take place by
using the specified criteria (Table 6).

4 Implementation

It was determined the failures of not presenting parameters on the display PFD
(primary screen) in two GDU-620, the LRU showed distorted images (Figs. 4
and 5), impeding the visualization of information in a different type of navigation
instruments.
The maintenance manual GDU 620 P/N 190-00601-10 establishes the limitations
of repairing the equipment GDU-620, stated in chapter 1.2, where it is only detailed
the different requirements and complications of repairing the cooling fan; and in any
other case, the equipment must be sent to the Garmin company.
370 M. Palma et al.

Table 4 Prioritization matrix

Prioritization matrix
Id Gaps Possible solutions
Before flying Br01 System failure (during ground A1. Acquisition of a new
operations) equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Br02 Flight course delay A1. Acquisition of a new
equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Br03 Physical damages or crew A1. Acquisition of a new
stress equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3.Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Br04 Lack of resources A1. Acquisition of a new
(human–material) equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Br05 Reschedule of flight operations A1. Acquisition of a new
equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Durante vuelo Br06 System failure while A1. Acquisition of a new
performing a flight mission equipment, Gdu620
(Causing a non-critical A2. Repairing the Gdu620
emergency)
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Br07 Delay in flight courses A1. Acquisition of a new
equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
(continued)
Determination of Optimal Procedures for Maintenance … 371

Table 4 (continued)
Prioritization matrix
Id Gaps Possible solutions
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the Electronics
Department
Br08 Physical damages or crew A1. Acquisition of a new
stress equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the Electronics
Department
Br09 Lack of resources A1. Acquisition of a new
(human–material) equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the Electronics
Department
Br10 Reschedule of flight operations A1. Acquisition of a new
equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Después del vuelo Br011 Aircraft unavailability A1. Acquisition of a new
equipment, Gdu620
A2. Repairing the Gdu620
A3. Maintenance by the
personnel of the electronics
department
Br012 Budget shortcut A1. Acquisition of a new
equipment, Gdu620
Br013 Time of repairing A2. Repairing the Gdu620

The technicians decided to take further actions than the procedures detailed in the
maintenance manual of the GDU 620, performing the following operations:
• Dismantlement of the equipment GDU-620 using the maintenance manual of the
Diamond DA20-C1 Eclipse aircraft. Chapter 31-61-00 Pages. 201–202;
• A technical analysis based on the norms and policies established for the mainte-
nance of electronic devices by the Garmin Company was taken into consideration
before locating the possible failure on the screen of the GDU 620;
• It performed the preventive and corrective maintenance on all the components of
the GDU 620 system;
• Check and reweld of cold solders;
372 M. Palma et al.

Table 5 Matrix of gaps and benefits

Matrix of gaps and benefits
Id. Benefits Id. Selected gaps
Bf01 1. Unavailable aircrafts Br011 Before flight operations Unavailable aircrafts
2. 1Complete
Fulfillment of planned
flight operations
Bf02 1. Satisfactory Br012 Budget shortcut
fulfillment of planned
flight operations
Bf03 1. Available equipment Br013 Repairing time
on time
Bf04 1. Adequate distribution Br04 Before flight operations Lack of human and
of the personnel material resources

• Maintenance and cleaning of the liquid crystal display;

• Maintenance of all the internal and external electronic connectors of the GDU
620;
• Maintenance of the electronic cards which are part of the GDU 620, using a soft
brush and contact cleaner to eliminate dust particles;
• Interconnection of power supply cards, interface cards with the information
received from the LRUs, these are transmitted to the aircrafts by vibrations which
can cause wrong signals when processing data;
• Maintenance of the cooling fan and connectors;
• Reconnection of data buses which were unlocked causing interference in the signal
emission and distorting images, and;
• Finally, it was performed the operational check up on the aircraft Diamond DA20-
C1 FAE 1062, 1066 having as a result of a neat image.

5 Results and Discussion

The application of maintenance procedures in the GDU620 Garmin screen improved

the images received on the aircraft DA20C-1, and they also allowed to recover infor-
mation from the navigation instruments: Altimeter, Speedometer, Vertical Speed,
External temperature, Pulse indicator, and Height.
On the other hand, the analysis between the discrepancies of the aircrafts DA20-C1
FAE 1066 and FAE 1062 during March 19 and 20, led us to determine the similarity
of the failure from two GDU-620 installed on these aircrafts. They did not show
any parameters on the PFD, instead a distorted image was displayed, impeding the
visualization of the different types of navigation instruments.
According to the inspection of cards and components of the system GDU 620, it
could be determined that it was required to perform the following tasks:
Table 6 Matrix of prioritization criteria
No. Alternative Gaps Prioritization criteria
Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Total
Quality Technical policy Length of the
process
30% 30% 40%
1 New BR01-BR02- BR03-BR04- BR05-BR06- BR07-BR08- BR09-BR10 Product 5 Depends on 5 6 months 3 4.33
equipment guarantee the
acquisition manufacturer
GDU620
2 Equipment BR01-BR02-BR03-BR04-BR05-BR06-BR07-BR08-BR09-BR10 Product 5 Depends on 5 6 months 3 4.33
repair guarantee the
Determination of Optimal Procedures for Maintenance …

manufacturer
3 Maintenance BR01-BR02-BR03-BR04-BR05-BR06-BR07-BR08-BR09-BR10-BR11-BR12-BR13 Quality 5 Knowle dge 4 3 days 5 4.67
by the approval and
personnel of by the experience of
the logistic the personnel
electronics department
department
373
374 M. Palma et al.

• Maintenance of internal and external connectors which are used to transmit infor-
mation in the form of vibrations which can cause wrong signals when processing
data;
• Maintenance of electronic cards which are part of the equipment GDU 620 using
a soft brush to eliminate dust particles, and;
• Reconnection of data buses which were unlocked causing interference in the signal
emission and distorting images.

6 Conclusions

For the testing, five samples were gathered. Each sample had measurements of lev-
els of To perform preventive and corrective maintenance operations on the Garmin
GDU 620 P/N 011-01264-50 S/N 165202117 and S/N 165201968, the personnel
of the Electronic Department performed third level procedures, it means that there
were technicians of the Ecuadorian Air Force who read the manuals and researched
procedures which allowed them to be capable of solving the problem.
The actions for preventive and corrective maintenance required on the GDU 620
P/N 011-01264-50 S/N 165202117 and S/N 165201968 enable the aircrafts DA20-C1
FAE 1066 and FAE 1062 to be available.
The maintenance procedures performed on GDU 620 P/N 011-01264-50 S/N
165202117 and S/N 165201968, represented an enormous contribution to save money
and time for the institution.

References

1. Avia.Pro: Diamond DA20\DV20 Katana. Especificaciones. Recuperado de (2015). http://avia-

es.com/blog/diamond-da20dv20-katana-tehnicheskie-harakteristiki-foto
2. COED: Manual de Instrucción de Logística Aeronáutica. Fuerza Aérea Ecuatoriana (2013)
3. Bowersox, J.D.: (OP) Administración y logística en la cadena de suministros. (2nd. ed.) McGraw-
Hill Interamericana. Tomado de (2007). http://www.ebooks7-24.com/
4. Hernández, R., Mendoza, C.: Metodología de la investigación. McGraw-Hill Interamericana.
Tomado de (2018). http://www.ebooks7-24.com/
5. Corbetta, P.: (OP) Metodología y técnicas de investigación social. McGraw-Hill Interamericana.
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bibliotechnia.com.mx/portal/visor/web/visor.php
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Guatemalteca. Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala (2025)
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Planning, Economy and Logistics
Applied to Defense
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime
in the Military Service—The Case
of the Portuguese Armed Forces

Lúcio Agostinho Barreiros Santos

and Maria Manuela Martins Saraiva Sarmento Coelho

Abstract This article aims to critically analyze the main dimensions of the model
of the military service in contract regime in the Portuguese Armed Forces. The
methodology is based on the selection of three criteria—relationship between model
and environment, model structuring and operation strategy. To make the analysis
more realistic, we cross the criteria with three perspectives—“Macro” (related to
environmental variables), “Meso” (related to internal variables) and “Micro” (related
to individual perspectives). The critical analysis reveals a “relationship with the
environment,” very permeable to external influence, in political, demographic and
sociocultural terms. There are high levels of complexity, formalization, hierarchy and
detail in the “model structuring,” which has consequences on the “operationalization
strategy,” i.e., making the management too centralized, inflexible, not permeable to
individual initiative and unable to adapt quickly to changes, particularly those in the
labor market.

Keywords Contractual model · Incentives scheme · Contract regime · Military

service

1 Introduction

This article presents a critical analysis about the current model of the military service
in contract regime in the Portuguese Armed Forces (PAF) [1–3], which has been in
force since 2004, November. We intend to assess it in a global and integrated way,
considering the normative structuring of the model and its evolution over time, and

L. A. B. Santos (B)
Military University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]
Lusíada University, Lisbon, Portugal
M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho
Lusíada University, and Military University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 377
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_33
378 L. A. B. Santos and M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho

the way it has been applied. The model assessment constitutes an innovative form
of analysis, since in last decade the current model of the military service in contract
regime has been affecting the PAF and there are several challenges to be overcome.
Actually, the highest gap in the literature, especially in Portuguese language,
concerns the lack of an integrated perception of the problems and challenges that
PAF has to deal relatively to the military service in contract regime. For a long time,
the main studies were focused on recruitment, and later on retention, leaving to a
marginal plan the issue of professional reintegration after leaving the AF.
On the other hand, the studies elaborated by the Ministry of Defense are mainly
focused on the responsibility of the military organization that introduces dysfunctions
in the professionalization of military service in Portugal. Additionally, the branches
of the AF tend to point out external constraints (e.g., assigned budgets and legal
changes) as the cause of the difficulties that are felt.
The analysis of the individual perspective (expectations and career orientations),
sometimes “forgotten” by the military hierarchy, needs to be much more present in
future studies and in models implementation. However, the real added value results
from the complete integration of the various perspectives, an exercise that is done in
this study.
To carry out the critical analysis, we select three criteria, adapted from the studies
developed by Souza [4]—(i) relation between model and environment; (ii) model
structuring; and (iii) operation strategy—which have been compared using three
perspectives of analysis: “Macro” (represented by environmental exogenous or con-
textual variables), “Meso” (represented by internal or endogenous variables, which
are organizational variables in military context and are also model variables specific
of the military service under contract) and “Micro” (which represents the individual
perspective).
The object of the study has a double perspective, one is normative (in relation
to the model structuring) and the other is managerial (in relation to the respective
operationalization based on concrete management practices). The several parameters,
resulting from crossing the three criteria and the three perspectives, have been later
consolidated and evaluated individually.
In order to obtain a clear and integrated perception of the value of the current
model of the military service in contract regime, the results of the previous analysis
in relation to the main external variables (environmental) and internal (organizational
or related to the model) have been in a later phase gathered in three clusters—recruit,
retain and reinsert in the external labor market (LM).
This article constitutes a deepening of the critical analysis to the model and to
the incentives program that legally supports it. It allows to observe the existence of a
dynamic influence of environmental variables on organizational variables and on the
model, with the respective constraints at the level of military contract regime, from
the point of view of its structure and normative evolution and from the point of view
of its operationalization based on concrete management procedures.
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military … 379

2 Definition of Criteria for Critical Analysis of the Model

of Military Service in Contract Regime in the Portuguese
Armed Forces

Although other references can be used for this critical analysis, we have selected
three criteria adapted from Souza [4] and qualified by the authors as “organizational
dimensions considered important by literature,” due to a research conducted by the
authors with the objective of creating a tool for public management assessment.
From that research [4], four axes or analytical dimensions constitute the focus of the
theoretical references: (i) model structuring (e.g., level of formalization and detail;
hierarchy and complexity); (ii) operationalization strategy (e.g., management type;
level of centralization, flexibility and capacity to change); (iii) relation established
between the model and the environment (e.g., influences of external environment,
dynamism and complexity of changes); and (iv) organization as political system
(that represents the internal safeguard of personal benefits and interests of groups,
as a reaction to systems and organizational functioning which, in a certain way, do
not permit to fully accomplish the objectives).
Given its low relevance to the current research, this last dimension has not been
included in the critical analysis of the model in study. The first three dimensions
are also suggested by Loiola, Bastos, Queiroz and Silva [5] to characterize the
organizational dynamics.
The change of order between the two first criteria selected by Sousa [4] is related
with the option of beginning an external evaluation of the military organization and of
the model, deriving from the great influence that the exogenous variables have on the
organizational system. To make the critical analysis more complete and consequent,
the criteria above mentioned have been crossed with three perspectives of analysis,
with the same sets of variables: (1) “Macro perspective” of analysis, represented by
environmental or exogenous variables; (2) “Meso perspective,” expressed by organi-
zational variables in general and model variables; and (3) “Micro perspective,” which
materializes the individual dimension of the analysis and the associated variables.
Table 1 shows the factors selected for evaluation, resulting from crossing the three
criteria and the three perspectives of analysis.
The 45 analysis factors listed in Table 1, subsequently reduced to 30 (Fig. 1),
result from a previous work, which allows to select the different topics of analysis:
(i) normative review of the main legal diplomas that establish the military service
contracted in Portugal; (ii) theoretical and conceptual review of general topics with
application to the military context and service under contract; (iii) empirical review
on the main studies and reports prepared by the Ministry of National Defense and
the branches of the AF; and (iv) exploratory interviews with specialists, military and
civil servants, responsible for the management of human resources in the Ministry of
National Defense and in the branches of the AF. The integration of criteria in Table 1
results from the knowledge and previous experience of the authors on this subject.
 380

Table 1 Selected criteria and perspectives for critical analysis of the model
Perspectives of analysis Criteria of analysis
Relation between model and environment Model structuration Operationalization strategy
Macro (external context—exogenous • Geopolitical and strategic mutations • System of careers and remunerations • New missions of the AF (by the
variables) (e.g., peace threats) • Service under contract political determination)
• Changes (military forces scenario) • Incentives Regime • Staff authorized each year by the
• Technological questions • Military charges and functions Supervisor
• Economic and financial conditions • Categories and specialties • Market studies by the MoD
• Restructuration of the State • Recruitment structure of the Minister • Dissemination policies—National
• Strategic Concept of National Defense of Defense (MoD) Defense Day (NDD)
(SCoND) • Structures of support to reintegration in • Recruitment policies
• “Defense 2020” Reform the LM and interdependency with QNS • Policies for training certification and
• Demographic conditions alignment with QNS and Qualifications
• Interdependency with LM National Catalogue (QNC)
• Qualifications National System (QNS) • Policies and means to support
reintegration
Meso • Military Strategic Concept (MSC) • Board of organic needs in terms of • Market studies by the AF
(internal context—organizational and • Missions of the PAF (MIFA) contracted staff • Communication mechanisms
model variables) • National Forces System (dimension • Structure and process of recruitment • Competences, selection and training
and structure of the force) and selection of the AF Branches profiles
• Process of configuration of the military • Career pattern profiles and other • Management policies of AF branches
force for each mission progression conditions • Regulation for functional and
• Restructuration process of the AF, by • Salary grids geographic mobility
self-initiative • Protocols and partnerships to support
reintegration
Micro (individual perspective) • Sociocultural profile • Career orientations (“Career Anchors”)
• Generational profile of young people • Willing to join the AF
• Unemployment rate among young • Early departure from the AF
people
L. A. B. Santos and M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military … 381

Legend: Environmental variables; Organizational variables; Model variables.

Fig. 1 Main environmental variables related to the military contract regime in the PAF. Source
Authors

3 Development of the Critical Analysis to the Present

Model Implemented in Portuguese Armed Forces

3.1 First Criterion of Analysis: Relation Established Between

Model and Environment

The first criterion refers to the relation established between the model and the external
environment.

3.1.1 Macro Perspective

Mutations of the international geopolitical and strategic environment and changes

of the operations scenario of the armed forces. They result from the new threats to
peace and international security, with implications at the level of missions, alliances
and rate of the gross domestic product linked to defense, military capacities, weapons
systems, models of military service and staff [6].
Technological questions. This variable derives from the transformation with origin
in the evolution of technologies of information and communication (TIC), equipment
and weapons systems, promoting reconfigurations in military forces (dimension,
modularity, agility and flexibility), result of the new theatres of operations and of their
382 L. A. B. Santos and M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho

higher complexity and ambiguity, which imposes in the military new competences
and new selection profiles [7].
Economic and financial conditions of the country. It is pointed out the recent world
economic and financial crisis, the resource of Portugal to international financial aid
and budgetary restrictions in the Budget Law since 2011, which has been conditioning
the military budget.
State Restructuration Procedures. They have conducted, since 2011, to more
rationalization of the military structures and to the progressive reduction of military
costs and number of staff authorized by the Government for military contract regime
[8, 9].
Strategic Concept of National Defense (SCoND). Regulation issued by the Gov-
ernment in the domain of National Defense Policy that defines forms to preserve the
main values, objectives and national interests, according to the strategic situation,
international environment and alliances [6].
“Defense 2020” Reform. Diploma that defines the need for optimization of
resources, from the 1.1% gap (±0.1) of the GDP to the defense budget and a max-
imum staff of soldiers from the AF between 30,000 and 32,000, as well as other
rationalization objectives [10].
Demographic conditions. This variable determines the universe of Portuguese
young citizens, possible candidates to the AF. Reality points at a progressive reduction
of this universe, clearly conditioning the basis of military recruitment and therefore
the respective capacity to obtain staff.
Labor market (LM) (interdependency and competition). The relevance of this
variable derives from the need for the AF to compete in the external market with
other organizations to obtain the necessary number of staff to function and accomplish
the missions, in opposition to the model that ended the compulsory military service.
This question surpasses the action capacity of the AF.
Qualifications National System (QNS). This variable is associated to National
Catalogue of Qualifications (QNC) and constitutes an important reference and one of
the objectives of the AF branches, in favor of the recognition and external certification
of the training provided and experience obtained in military context [11, 12].

3.1.2 Meso Perspective

Military Strategic Concept (MSC), Missions of the AF (MIFA) and National Forces
System (dimension and structure of the military forces). According to the national
interests and the level of ambition established, the orientations of action of the AF are
defined, as well as the strategic and military level and necessary military capacities
to accomplish the missions and to globally respond to the internal and international
demands [13–16].
Configuration process of the military force for each type of missions. For a certain
military mission, several configurations of the force may be conceived. In general, the
one selected accomplishes the mission at the lowest costs. It is considered, among
other factors, the technology available, experience and personal skills, as well as
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military … 383

subsidiarity among the several categories of personnel. The contracted soldiers are
generally integrated.
Restructuration procedures of the Armed Forces, by self-initiative. These pro-
cedures derive indirectly from political impositions and constitute the answer to
emerging operational demands and to a higher functionality and efficiency of the
subsystems of the AF branches.

3.1.3 Micro Perspective

Social-cultural profile. Important variable, since it helps to determine social positions

of young people on defense questions and reputation and utility of the AF, as well
as the will to join the AF.
Generational profile of young people. It seems important to know, from an individ-
ual perspective, how young people consider the professional issues and their mobility
in the labor market, determining the main “career anchors” and the options assumed
in relation to the military context.
Unemployment rate among young people. Besides oscillating the recruitment
basis available, this aspect has natural reflections on the eventual decision to join the
AF and on the time of permanence.

3.2 Second Criterion: Structuration of the Model

The second criterion of analysis refers to model structuring, with connection, among
other aspects, to the level of formalization, detail, hierarchy and complexity.

3.2.1 Macro Perspective

System of careers and remunerations. To the contracted soldiers, it is applied the

respective Career Status [17], with remission to the law that regulates the regimes
of public function employees [18], where the juridical–functional regime applicable
is established [19]. The status [17] determines for workers under contract a public
link by an undetermined period, which duration and termination as well as its effects
derive from ad hoc regulation.
Service under contract. The juridical–functional regime for the temporary passage
of citizens by the AF under contract is defined by regulation [1, 17].
Incentives Regime. A tool is constituted for usage of the political power and AF to
promote the achievement, retention and social-professional reintegration of citizens
that worked in the AF. This diploma, recently changed, actually refers to four types
of support, each of them with several possibilities, following previous conditions: (a)
achievement of academic and professional qualifications; (b) financial and material
support; (c) insertion in the labor market; and (d) social and family support [2, 3].
384 L. A. B. Santos and M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho

Military charges and functions. These are fixed within the organic structure of the
AF or in State organisms, defined by categories, ranks and specialties, to which it is
inherent a certain level of responsibility [17].
Categories and specialties. Specialties of the soldiers contracted may change
according to the AF branch and professional category (officers, sergeants and pri-
vates), and they are connected to charges and functions as well as to very concrete
areas of training and activity, in relation to the form, they are managed in the AF
[17].
Recruitment structure of the Ministry of National Defense (MoD). In the structure
of the MoD, there is a “central organ” of recruitment and dissemination, with compe-
tences focused on planning, direction and coordination of the structuring procedures
of professionalization of the military service [20]. In spite of its formal creation,
except in what concerns some cyclic activities, it has not been effectively established
yet.
Structures of support to reintegration in the Labor Market (LM) and interdepen-
dency with Qualifications National System (QNS). In 2008, it was created the Infor-
mation and Vocational Orientation Centre for Professional Training and Employment
(CIOFE), structure that has the mission of supporting the soldiers contracted in their
passage to civilian life, with a set of services that help to construct a relevant formative
path and give professional orientation [21].

3.2.2 Meso Perspective

Board of organic needs in terms of contracted staff. They result from the missions in
the AF branches. Although the real organic needs in terms of contracted personnel
have not been reduced in the last few years, the existent numbers have suffered
losses given the reduction of authorized staff, each year, by the Government. The
comparison established between authorized staff and existence has transferred the
debate on the “satisfaction of real needs” to the “capacity to recruit and retain.” These
needs are much higher than they seem to be and surpasses the capacity of the AF.
Structures and process of recruitment and selection of the AF Branches. The
evolution of the conscription for professional AF in Portugal led to changes in the
structures, process and procedures of recruitment and selection, as a way to respond
to new. Standardization and articulation between the AF branches is essential to
improve efficiency and effectiveness.
Career pattern profiles and other progression conditions. They are established
based on the juridical concept of “special career” applied in the military. Although
there is some state standardization in relation to the entrance and progression in the
military career for the contracted soldiers [17], the respective profiles, conditions
for vertical and/or horizontal mobility and other possibilities of professional military
offer are not sufficiently recognized by the external public.
Salary grids. Salaries applied to the contracted soldiers are, for ranks and cat-
egories, the same applied to the soldiers of the permanent board. There are no
performance awards [17–19].
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military … 385

3.3 Third Criterion: Model Operationalization Strategy

This third criterion manages the “operationalization strategy,” particularly the type
of management, level of centralization, flexibility and capacity to change.

3.3.1 Macro Perspective

New missions of the AF (by political determination). The “new” missions join the
traditional missions, as a response to commitments in the domain of alliances and
emerging requests in benefit of international security and defense.
Staff authorized each year by the Supervisor. To accomplish the missions attributed
to the AF branches, the Government approves annually a certain volume of personnel
to be contracted, distributed by categories and specialties, and generally designated
as “authorized staff,” often below the real needs.
Market studies carried out the Ministry of National Defense (MoD). These studies
are carried out by the MoD. They characterize the labor market and the social-cultural
profile of Portuguese young people.
Dissemination and recruitment policies (National Defense Day/NDD and other
forms). They clarify and inform Society on National Defense issues, to project the
institutional image and inform on the job availability (e.g., National Defense Day;
clarification conferences at schools; sites, social networks). These policies are not
very clear and need to be articulated and regulated.
Policies for training certification and alignment with the Qualifications National
System (QNS) and Qualifications National Catalogue (QNC). In spite of the effort
to the consolidation of military service professionalization, each branch has been
following its own path in relation to the certification of training and experience
achieved in military context and only a small part of this training is already certified
and aligned with the QNS and QNC [9, 10].
Policies and means to support reintegration in the Labor market (LM). Social-
professional reintegration of former soldiers in the external labor market has been
object of political and military debate in several fora.

3.3.2 Meso Perspective

Market studies carried out the branches of the Armed Forces (AF). The AF branches
have been carrying out market studies that join independent research studies, stressing
out the need to increase the maintenance of staff, by improving welcome, working
and facilities conditions.
Relation/communication mechanisms with the Labor Market (LM). The way to
communicate and diffuse the organizational image and work offer, that has been
somehow failing, seems to be determinant to recruit.
386 L. A. B. Santos and M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho

Competences, selection and training profiles. These profiles are connected,

although the competences profiles are the basis to build other profiles for contracted
soldiers. The competence profile seeks to respond to the functional needs of the AF,
in a more general form, and for the performance of specific charges. The selection
profiles for the AF are broadband, to which specific specialty profiles are applied.
Training profiles respond to competences profiles.
Management policies of AF branches. They are not uniform among the AF
branches, in what concerns contracted soldiers (centralization versus flexibility).
These practices have been mainly limited to the recruitment of contracted workers
and their management during their permanence.
Regulation applied to functional and geographic mobility. After joining the AF,
focus is on functional and geographic management. AF use internal ad hoc regulation
for this purpose. However, the growing needs in certain functional and geographic
areas do not allow responding to all of the requests, in spite of the existence of some
acquired rights, which often gives origin to dissatisfaction and early departure.
Protocols and other partnership forms to support reintegration in the labor mar-
ket. Protocols area is a possible way to establish public and private partnerships to
support the soldiers to enter the external LM. It is important to increment also other
initiatives, such as professional certification, employment improvement in general,
and placement of former soldiers in state companies and organisms.

3.3.3 Micro Perspective

Career orientations (“career anchors”), willing to join the AF and early depar-
tures. Professional orientations of young people influence the decision of joining
and remaining in the AF, influencing the number of early departures. Any organiza-
tion in the labor market must have a clear message in relation to the job offer and
professional progression and must possess the capacity to respond to the needs of
individuals’ “internal career” [22–24, 25].

4 Integrated Discussion on of the Model

The model of the military contract regime in the Portuguese AF includes a set of
variables, as previously referred. In order to provide an integrated perception, focused
on the objective of the study, the main topics of the previous analysis are gathered
in three clusters—recruit, retain and reintegrate—followed by the explanation
about the interaction between internal variables (organizational and of the model)
and external variables (Fig. 1).
The environmental or contextual variables selected are also causal variables
since they are at the origin of the model and its evolution. This type of variables
is related, among other factors, to: (1) mutations of strategic and geopolitical inter-
national environment and the consequent change of the spectrum of military; (2)
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military … 387

technological incorporation; (3) economic-financial conditions; (4) political-legal

dimension and the respective legislative changes, with direct and indirect impli-
cations on the structure and management of the model, expressed in reorganization
procedures of the AF and budgets that condition the military activity since they limit,
critically, the recruitment capacity and retention of staff; (5) the demographic condi-
tions of the country; (6) competition in the external labor market; (7) social-cultural
context; and (8) qualifications national system.
Internal variables are divided into organizational variables and model variables.
From organizational variables one stresses out: (1) diffusion and communication;
(2) recruitment and selection structures and procedures related to the regime of
contract; (3) welcome and working conditions as well as facilities in general; (4)
functional and geographic mobility system; (5) career state regulators; (6) internal
labor market; and (7) support structures for social-professional reintegration.
Among the model variables, it is stressed out, concerning the soldiers contracted:
(1) organic and functional needs of the AF and performance functional board; (2)
competences, selection and training profiles; (3) career profiles, in the area of each
professional category and the correspondent salary grids (identical to those of the
permanent board); (4) vertical and horizontal mobility system (in terms of promotion,
initial placement and rotation of these soldiers. It is therefore associated to functional
and geographic mobility); and (5) system of certification of the AF branches and
training provided internally, preferably aligned with QNS and QNC.
The incentives program for military enlistment contract, although defined by
Political Power, is an essential element in the management of the military staff
contracted during their permanence (“active situation”) and when they leave the AF.
In these terms, it is a central and transversal variable of critical analysis, directly
connecting external context to internal context.
From the integrated analysis, it results the perception of control of some of
the environmental variables by the Political Power and the control of internal
variables directly by the military organization, exercise previously conditioned
by environmental variables.
Considering again the criterion of analysis “relation established between model
and environment,” it is possible to understand that the aspects referred confirm that
the model is strongly formalized and institutionalized and consequently with
low flexibility and not very susceptible to internal influence and to individual
intervention, notably in the domain of definition and management of professional
development of each soldier. Successive regulative revisions of the model, mainly
top-down, reinforce this perception of political and institutional dependency. This
assertion evidences also that professional progression of the Portuguese AF are con-
ceptually inserted in the domain of the organizational careers, considering the low
space given to individual participation and a closer approximation to a drawing of
protean type career [23, 24, 25]. Concerning this first criterion, it is observed that in
terms of recruitment policies, the respective structures continue to present an exces-
sive number of differences between the AF branches and do not permit to reflect
upon the questions in a more integrated and consequent way.
388 L. A. B. Santos and M. M. M. S. Sarmento Coelho

The complexity and the level of formalization, hierarchy and detail inherent to the
construction of variables and to the co-responsibility relations that are established
between the organs that concern them, aspects related to “model structuring” crite-
rion, do not facilitate management, and therefore, “the operationalization strategy
of the model” is very centralized, low flexible and incapable of quickly adapt to
changes, notably those occurring in the labor market.

5 Conclusions

This research aims to carry out a critical analysis of the current model of military
contract regime in the PAF and the incentive program that supports. It is part of a more
comprehensive research, integrated in a research project enrolled in the Military Uni-
versity Institute in Portugal, based on the main dimensions of the professionalization
of military service: recruit, retain and reintegrate.
The object of the analysis is a set of parameters related to the military context, to
the normative model and to the environment, selected in an exploratory phase, later
stressed out and individually confirmed. These parameters are constructed and ana-
lyzed with reference to three criteria previously selected—relation between model
and environment; model structuring; strategy of model operationalization—and to
the insertion of these criteria with three different perspectives of analysis: “Macro”
(related to exogenous variables to the organization and to the model), “Meso” (orga-
nizational variables and model variables) and “Micro” (perspective of contracted
soldiers). Exogenous and endogenous variables have been later reevaluated, from
an integrated discussion, in three clusters—recruit, retain and reintegrate—which
constitute equal number of processes and materialize the focus of this research.
As main results of the study, besides the value linked to the individualized anal-
ysis of the three types of variables selected and of the most complete perception that
results from crossing criteria and analysis perspectives, it is pointed out the deter-
minant influence of exogenous variables on the AF over the endogenous variables
and the value of the incentives program to the military contract regime, which con-
nects the types of variables and provides higher balance in the operationalization of
the model. This program, although punctually difficult to be applied, constitutes an
unavoidable tool for a more efficient management of the contracted staff, in the area
of the three clusters, connecting the external and internal contexts and the subjects’
perspectives. However, the satisfaction of organic and functional needs related to the
military enlistment contract continues to depend mostly, directly or indirectly, on
the “authorized staff” as well as the budgetary conditions provided each year by the
Government.
In terms of political influence, besides the budgetary restrictions, the normative
question has a determinant influence on structure and operationalization of the model,
making it more formalized and institutionalized. On the other hand, the AF controls
most internal variables, influencing the accomplishment of the model, in spite of the
moderate influence of the environmental variables action.
Critical Revision of the Contract Regime in the Military … 389

Revisiting the conception of the three criteria selected, the critical analysis of the
military enlistment contract reveals a model, in its “relation with the environment,”
very permeable to external influence, in political, demographic and social-cultural
terms, with the corresponding constraints. On the other hand, there is a high complex-
ity and high level of formalization, hierarchy and detail in the “model structuring,”
evident in the set of variables and in the relations established between them, with
direct consequences on “operationalization strategy,” which makes management too
centralized, with low flexibility in terms of information flows and decision making,
low permeable to individual intervention and incapable of quickly adapt to changes,
notably those deriving from the external labor market.
This study materializes an innovative research perspective and contributes with an
important added value, not only in terms of knowledge systematization on the main
problems and dysfunctions related to the design (structure) and operationalization
of the model, but also on the main constraints and challenges that the Ministry
of Defense and the branches of the PAF will face in the short and medium term.
Another goal of this integrated critical analysis is to increase the awareness on the
model definition and its operationalization by the branches of the AF through the
implementation of best management practices using learned lessons.
In future research, the result of this critical analysis can be improved, doing
more interviews with the experts from the AF branches, namely on the effective
relevance of each factor and on the corresponding insertion in the three analysis
perspectives—macro, meso and micro.

References

1. Law No. 174/99 of 21 September: Approves the Military Service Law. Assembly of the Repub-
lic. Diary of the Republic, Lisbon (1999), https://dre.pt/application/dir/pdf1sdip//09/221A00/
65416550.pdf. Last accessed 12 Nov 2019
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Defense Organizations Budgeting
and Management Control Systems
in Restrictive Budgets
Context—Literature Gaps

Luis M. Godinho and Tiago Gonçalves

Abstract There is an increasing need to adopt private sector management processes

and performance metrics by the public sector, as New Public Management is more
present in the executive government actions plans. The Defense Organizations, such
as the Armed Forces are not exempt of this movement. Concepts as accountability and
sustainability are more common. Through budgeting and management control, it is
possible to improve performance and communication, in a restrictive budget context
(Letens et al. in Strategic Performance Measurement for Defense Organizations:
a preliminary framework, 2017 [1]; Navarro-Galera et al. in Defence Peace Econ,
25:577–604, 2014 [2]; Cain et al. in Inter J Public Adm 27:557–576, 2004 [3];
Dougherty et al. in Public Adm Rev 63:484–497, 2003 [4]). This study aims to
provide evidence of gaps in the literature relative to the association of management
control systems and budgeting in Defense Organizations, as the branches of the
military. A literature survey is presented for the papers published from 2000 to 2019.
Although more than 2500 research papers were found, there is none that provides
neither a systematic literature review nor meta-data analysis for the management and
business knowledge area. Preliminary results show evidence that most of the research
has been done to assess economical determinants of the military expenditure, and that
this research has had focus on implementation of accounting or control instruments
in case studies approach. This paper provides evidence of the gap in management
planning and control research, applied at the organizational level of Armed Forces
branches, namely in the context of restrictive budgets.

Keywords Defense · Armed Forces · Budget · Budgeting · Management control

systems

L. M. Godinho (B)
Air Force Academy Research Center, 2715-021 Pêro Pinheiro, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]
ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management, 1200-781 Lisbon, Portugal
T. Gonçalves
Advance/CSG, ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management, 1200-781 Lisbon, Portugal

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 391
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_34
392 L. M. Godinho and T. Gonçalves

1 Introduction

The Defense Organizations (DO), as public institutions, have to comply with the
respective legal, administrative and financial requirements, such as having to prepare
and execute a budget approved by the political executive. Particularly, since the
crisis of 2007, restrictive budgets are more common in the public sector, as in the
defense [1]. This has put a stress on DO to better justify to politicians, citizens
and its workforce the added value delivered [1, 2]. Foremost, in the potential value
embedded in the budgeting process, and ultimately by the execution and control of
the appropriated budget [3–5].
Restrictive budgets for DO may compromise the performance of missions,
research and development initiatives and current or future capabilities [1]. On the
other hand, other authors state that restrictive budgets in DO impacts expenditure
efficiency and management control [2].
Additionally, cumulative pressures to these organizations, identified in the liter-
ature about New Public Management (NPM), emerge from normative adoption of
management tools by public organizations, including DO. Findings suggest that it
is the contingencies that promote their use to achieve more efficiency and a client
focus [6].
The purpose of this paper is to identify gaps in the literature relative to orga-
nizational unit of Defense Organizations (DO) studies, such as the Armed Forces,
regarding the interaction between management control systems (MCS) and the bud-
geting process, in restrictive budgets context [2, 7–9]. The objective is to provide
directions for future research to answer the challenge of building bridges between
the academic and the practitioners within the scope of the present study [9–11].
A search for peer-reviewed papers in the EBSCO database was conducted for the
period between 2000 and 2019. The results were filtered to fit within the scope of this
study, and 2772 papers identified as valid. The preliminary findings corroborate the
gap in research related to DO, the branches of the Armed Forces, as organizational
units and the interaction between budget, budgeting and MCS.
The paper is organized as follows: It starts with the sections regarding the method-
ological choices for constructs and the literature search; the literature analysis chapter
presents a table to resume the preliminary findings and a brief discussion on the
main issues; finally, the conclusion of the paper enhances the academic knowledge
produced and gaps for future research agenda.

2 Methodology

We adopt a methodology based on a systematic search of a bibliographical database

(EBSCO) and a content analysis of the published research for the time window 2000–
2019. In order to do so, we define the construct of interest and limit our search to a
set of keywords that represent and define the scope of the construct under analysis.
Defense Organizations Budgeting and Management … 393

Although the preliminary findings have evidence to be presented, the data analysis
is ongoing to create the knowledge map with the above mentioned techniques.
Initially, we argue that DO in each country, as well as the branches of the Armed
Forces, do not significantly depart from any other organization [12]. Their manage-
ment complies with most of the same principles as in the private sector. Although
the investment in major equipment and recruitment decisions are mostly political,
the current management is flexible, even if subjected to constraints and restrictions
imposed by public law and budgeting.
Consequently, the construct of interest adopted is the one that identifies the MCS
as a package of control systems with associated adopted instruments, as well as
subsidiary and related, of all organizational activity providing information to support
decision making [8, 12, 13].
From the previous literature, we identified the main keywords that reflect our
research goal (management control; budget; budgeting; expenditure; spending) and
cross them to find research specifically related to DO and military forces (Keywords:
military; Defense; Armed Forces).
Our final query ran the following criteria:
• Keywords on subject terms with Boolean search phrase: (Management Control
OR Budget OR Budgeting OR expenditure OR spending) AND (Military OR
Defense OR Armed Forces);
• Online EBSCO host databases;
• Related to military sciences, business and academic;
• English language only;
• Published between the years of 2000 and 2019;
• Peer reviewed only.
We also extended the search to equivalent subjects.
The first round of search with the criteria above returned 2802 papers.
In order to analyze their validity to the present study, a search within the first part
of the Boolean search phrase was made, restricting the results to those who contained
“management” or “control,” eliminating seven out of ten results.
Consecutive searches, within the initial framing, was made for “budget,” “bud-
geting,” “expenditure” and “spending.” The results returned the following num-
ber of papers, where we cross-identified research relating to our organizations
under analysis (military, defense and Armed Forces) with the aforementioned
keywords: management control—2 papers; budget—1055 papers; budgeting—30
papers; expenditure—594 papers and spending—1528 papers.
Finally, we conducted a brief content analysis of the papers obtained with our
search criteria.
394 L. M. Godinho and T. Gonçalves

3 Literature Review: Preliminary Results

The first round of search resulted in 2802 papers found. Overall, the papers that
met all constructs identified, (“OR” operator), within the scope of this study sum up
to 2768 papers, as shown in Table 1.
Based on the final database, we analyzed the scope of the papers. Most of the
papers found addresses a macro-organizational unit, such as the Ministry of Defense
or equivalent, the military spending of the country or the country’s military investment
expenditures, as shown in Table 1. None of the research studies the budget execution
of the Armed Forces as an organizational unit per se.
We followed our analysis by examining the scope of information and management
control under analysis on the papers on our search. Two out of ten papers, with
reference to management or control, are related with management control and DO,
but none of them with budget or budgeting subjects. All 30 papers with reference to
budgeting keywording relate either to the strategic planning or to planning or control
instruments but do not commit to establish an empirical relation between budgeting
and the MCS.
Specifically, and as an example, Letens et al. [1] refer to the importance of budgets,
but do not identify how the MCS interact with any of the categories within the
framework “means > ways > end.” This is common to all other studies, because they
focus on military spending determinants, expenditure factors or economic variables.
When we analyze the cross-importance of MCS and the intention of its use in
budgeting-related keywords, none of the papers identifies MCS with any other of
the keywords. The focus is mostly on spending with 55% of hits related to that, as
presented in Table 1.
When drilling the results for geography and geopolitical clusters by refining the
search, it is possible to find large focus on specific countries/geopolitical unions. The

Table 1 List of papers hits

Keyword Number of hits
by keyword searched
MCS 2
Budgeting 21
Budget 691
Expenditure 459
Spending 1158
Budgeting and budget 6
Budgeting and spending 2
Budgeting and expenditure 1
Budget and expenditure 61
Budget and spending 297
Expenditure and spending 70
Total 2768
Defense Organizations Budgeting and Management … 395

250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fig. 1 Number of papers published per year (2000–2019)

recurrent subjects are the United States of America (USA) with 1133 papers, North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance present in 150 research papers, China
with 153 and the European Union (EU) with 113 papers.
When we specifically addressed availability of the systematic literature surveys,
such as we propose to conduct in this paper, 17 hits returned after a refined search
within the first round for the Boolean phrase “review of literature OR literature review
OR meta-analysis OR systematic review.” After an analysis of their abstract, four
papers were validated as belonging to the scope of this study. A brief analysis of their
research setting, found evidence that the authors developed their research after 2012
[14–17], which may be related with the strong increment of research papers related
with these constructs from 2012 onwards, as shown in Fig. 1.
Methodologically, these literature survey papers are based on meta-analysis of the
relationship between economic growth of the country and the military expenditures
and spending [14–17]. This finding may indicate an association of the keywords
expenditure, spending more toward economical than management perspectives.
Finally and foremost, the results show evidence of a gap in studies with its focus
and scope on management themes, meta-data analysis or systematic literature review
related to MCS and budgets, when compared with the (macro) economic focused
area.

4 Conclusion

The NPM, the managerialism stress on the public sector and the request to increase
public funds management transparency has impacted the DO, not only at the political
national and international wide level but also at the individual Armed Forces. The
daily empirical observation reveals signs of an increase in complexity in the DO, prob-
ably as result of higher levels of education and technology. On the other hand, we must
provide the military and civil citizens information regarding the issues of efficiency
and sustainability, while providing evidence for more and better communication in
behalf of the DO, either internal or external.
396 L. M. Godinho and T. Gonçalves

In a context of restrictive budgets, asymmetric conflicts and more educated per-

sonnel in the ranks, and widely in societies, the DO have to be able to effectively
communicate its strategic intentions and budget requirements while providing the
public good of defense efficiently, without diminishing the capabilities approved by
their executive government.
Consequently, we focus this literature survey in the constructs related to DO and
their use of MCS and budgeting tools throughout the period from 2000 to 2019.
Our results show that in 20 years, the number of studies has tripled its yearly
publications, from 44 to 147, in 2019.
In terms of scope, many of the researches have focused on the determinants or
expenditures factors for the military spending. Consequently, we show evidence that
the management perspective is lacking, providing potential interest for more studies
with this scope. An example is the lack of studies associating the planning and the
control functions of management in DO, and how their interaction may improve the
overall performance and accountability.
We stress, in our preliminary results of the literature survey in this paper, evidence
of the need to further develop more research in management and business areas with
the organizational unit being the DO. Although every case will be unique, the business
model, restrictions, control and planning tools may provide some common grounds.
More specifically, we argue for future research focused on studies that develop
their scope within budget planning and management control, at the organizational
level of the Armed Forces, by opposition to economical perspectives, in order to
meet politically imposed restrictions, such as budgetary constraints, but also efficient
and effective use of military spending, within transparent reporting, required by
increasing educated citizenship.

4.1 Limitations and Conflict of Interests

The military organizations, namely their higher education institutions and research
centers libraries, were not screened to identify unpublished research papers or other
research work formats, leading to a limitation of the results presented in the literature
survey, for which we focused on published papers indexed on EBSCO.
The findings presented are part of ongoing research; therefore, the authors con-
sidered this as preliminary results. A detailed data analysis recurring to content
analysis of the papers is in process to present a systematic literature review, as part
of a methodology, to map the knowledge gap of budget planning and management
control research, at the organizational level of the DO.
Regarding potential conflict of interests, one author is a Portuguese Air Force
commissioned Officer and receives funding for its present doctoral program from
the same institution.
Defense Organizations Budgeting and Management … 397

References

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performance measurement for defense organizations: a preliminary framework. In: 2017 Inter-
national Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management, ASEM
2017 (2017)
2. Navarro-Galera, A., Muñoz-Leyva, F., Maturana, R.I.O., Rubio, J.L.: Factors influencing the
modernization of military-investment economic appraisal systems. Defence Peace Econ. 25(6),
577–604 (2014)
3. Cain, C., Choudhury, E., Clingermayer, J.C.: Turnover, trust, and transfers: an examination of
local government budget execution. Int. J. Public Adm. 27(8–9), 557–576 (2004)
4. Dougherty, M.J., Klase, K.A., Song, S.G.: Managerial necessity and the art of creating sur-
pluses: the budget-execution process in West Virginia Cities. Public Adm. Rev. 63(4), 484–497
(2003)
5. Beeres, R., Bogers, M.: Ranking the Performance of European Armed Forces. Defence Peace
Econ. 23(1), 1–16 (2012)
6. George, B., Van de Walle, S., Hammerschmid, G.: Institutions or contingencies? A cross-
country analysis of management tool use by public sector executives. Public Adm. Rev. 79(3),
330–342 (2019)
7. Van der Stede, W.A.: Measuring ‘tight budgetary control’. Manage. Acc. Res. 12(1), 119–137
(2001)
8. Grabner, I., Moers, F.: Management control as a system or a package? Conceptual and empirical
issues. Acc. Organ. Soc. 38(6–7), 407–419 (2013)
9. Otley, D.: The contingency theory of management accounting and control: 1980–2014. Manage.
Acc. Res. 31(1), 45–62 (2016)
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and its integration into management control. Acc. Organ. Soc. 47, 1–13 (2015)
11. Banks, G.C., Pollack, J.M., Bochantin, J.E., Kirkman, B.L., Whelpley, C.E., O’Boyle, E.H.:
Management’s science-practice gap: a grand challenge for all stakeholders. Acad. Manag. J.
59(6), 2205–2231 (2016)
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zations. Defence Stud. 16(3), 312–326 (2016)
13. Chenhall, R.H.: Management control systems design within its organizational context: findings
from contingency-based research and directions for the future. Acc. Organ. Soc. 28, 127–168
(2003)
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Polit. Econ. 28(4), 636–650 (2012)
15. Yesilyurt, F., Yesilyurt, M.E.: Meta-analysis, military expenditures and growth. J. Peace Res.
56(3), 352–363 (2019)
16. Emmanouilidis, K., Karpetis, C.: The defense-growth nexus: a review of time series methods
and empirical results. Defence Peace Econ. 31(1), 1–18 (2018)
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synthesis. Empirical Economics 55(3), 1357–1387 (2018)
Coupling Architecture Between INS/GPS
for Precise Navigation on Set Paths

Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama,

Hugo Hernández Palma, and Eduardo Nicolas Cueto

Abstract GPS offers the advantage of providing high long-term position accuracy
with residual errors that affect the final positioning solution to a few meters with a
sampling frequency of 1 Hz (Marston et al. in Decis Support Syst 51:176–189, 2011
[1]). The signals are also subject to obstruction and interference, so GPS receivers
cannot be relied upon for a continuous navigation solution. On the contrary, the
inertial navigation system has a sampling frequency of at least 50 Hz and exhibits
low noise in the short term. In this research, a prototype based on development cards is
implemented for the coupling of the inertial navigation system with GPS to improve
the precision of navigation on a trajectory.

Keywords Global positioning system (GPS) · Inertial measurement unit ·

Coupling system · Sensors · Kalman filter · Madgwick filter

J. Silva (B)
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Perú
e-mail: [email protected]
N. Varela
Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial, Agroindustrial y Operaciones, Universidad de la Costa,
Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
H. H. Palma
Corporación Universitaria Latinoamericana, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
E. N. Cueto
Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios—Uniminuto, Bogotá, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 399
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_35
400 J. Silva et al.

1 Introduction

Today’s positioning systems, according to their performance, require high precision.

However, the standard positioning service of the Global Positioning System (GPS)
is imprecise due to external factors that cause the attenuation of the signal during its
propagation [2]. So, correction techniques are available to improve accuracy includ-
ing post-processing [3] and real-time corrections. Inertial Navigation Systems (INS)
are the alternative for navigation and positioning in indoor environments (i.e., indoor),
allowing eliminate correlated errors between both systems, and provide a solution
for position and speed even during the interruption of the signal from positioning
satellites for a limited period of time [4].
The implementation of a prototype that assembles both systems for path navigation
that reduces the positioning error is achieved through the development of the coupling
architecture algorithm using the Kalman filter, obtaining results comparable to high-
end devices that perform the same function, but at a higher price [5].

2 Methodology

The main objective of the implementation of this technology is to couple both systems
to reduce the error that is present in the GPS devices with respect to the positioning
accuracy in the parameters of longitude and latitude. For this purpose, it is necessary
to include inertial sensors through a coupling architecture called tight coupling,
which is detailed in Fig. 2, consisting of the measures of both independent systems
to later couple them through the Kalman filter and obtain the navigation solution,
using low-cost technology.

2.1 Equipment Calibration and Raw Data Extraction

The extraction of raw data from the GPS NEO 6MV2 receiver [7] is done with free
hardware development cards, as shown in Fig. 3, using the device’s own programming
tools for the execution of the command lines in the console that allows the activation
of the antenna and extraction of the data of interest, in this case, the latitude, longitude,
and altitude as shown in Fig. 1.

2.2 Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU)

The inertial measurement unit (IMU) used is the MPU 9250, which integrates sensors
such as accelerometer, magnetometer, and gyroscope, which must be calibrated (see
Fig. 2) before use, in order to extract data accurately and allow the manipulation of
reliable data [8].
Coupling Architecture Between INS/GPS for Precise … 401

Fig. 1 Extraction of raw GPS data in NEO6M

Fig. 2 Calibration graphs

For the calibration, the movements to be followed are those shown in Fig. 3, in
order to avoid errors in the obtained measurements.

2.3 Madgwick Filter Selection

For the selection of the sensory fusion algorithm, the AHRS filter is chosen, which is
open source. The results obtained by this filter, in this case, have less drift and their
data are more stable as shown in Fig. 4. Below are the results obtained by each filter
where it is clear that the best option is the AHRS filter [9].
402 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 3 Calibration steps of the IMU

Fig. 4 Sensor data with AHRS filter

2.4 The Kalman Filter

The Kalman filter makes use of a time dimension that consists of the analysis of
the dynamics of state variables and also uses a transversal dimension from where it
obtains the measurements in time intervals of the observable variables. The Kalman
filter is a recursive algorithm in which the initial state is considered to be a Gaussian
random assignable [10].
A linear stochastic model is modeled by means of the transition and measurement
equations [11]:
Coupling Architecture Between INS/GPS for Precise … 403

xk = Ak−1 xk−1 + Bk−1 uk−1 + wk−1

zk = Hk xk + vk (1)

where wk is white noise N(0, Qk ) at instant k, vk is white noise N(0, Rk ) at instant k,

A is the state transition matrix, x k is the state vector to be estimated, B and uk −1 is
the command matrix and H k is the observation matrix.

2.5 Madgwick Filter

It is important to know that the position angles can be obtained by integrating the
angular speed which is no more than that derived from the angle in time [12].

θt = ω(t)dt + C (2)

where C is the integration constant and is responsible for the presence of errors in
measurement that are cumulative in nature. For this reason, the implementation of
Sebastian Madgwic’s AHRS filter has been carried out.
The yaw, pitch, and roll attitude values, apart from being represented graphically
by means of the application in Processing, are also shown numerically. However, it
is in the graphical representation where an infinite number of applications can be
found since they allow the monitoring of the position of the bodies [13].

3 Results

3.1 Validation of Results Using Statistical Methods

The experimental design is a very powerful scientific statistical tool that manages
to analyze the results of different methodologies, according to factors of variability
in order to determine the influence of these factors on the response variables. Two
methods are defined for subsequent statistical analysis. The initial method refers to
the GPS NEO 6M device and the second one to the integrated inertial system with
GPS. The statistical analysis focuses on the evaluation of the accuracy parameter
achieved by the two navigation systems independently (GPS) and merged (GPS +
IMU). The analysis of variance (ANOVA) [14] allows to obtain the existing error
by the measurements provided by the two methods, thus determining the difference
between the results of the systems.
404 J. Silva et al.

3.2 Experimental Method

The experimental work is planned and organized in the following four steps [15]:
• Problem identification: determine the significant existence of accuracy between
systems
• Choice of response variable: the distance between the actual and measured
coordinates.
• Influence with the response variable: the block factor to be evaluated is the speed
of the device at the time the measurement is taken,
• Scenario: Two different speeds will be experimented for each method, 40 and 208
m/min.
In [16], the data of the experimental exercise are shown, which are used as a
starting point for the analysis with the ANOVA table. The error is calculated in
centimeters from the distance between the coordinates provided by the two methods
and the real coordinates of each of the 35 selected points. To determine the variations
in distance between the two methods to be used, the formula for distance between
two geographical points should be used to determine the absolute error.

d = (7584 ∗ cos−1 (cos(90 − Lat1) ∗ cos(90 − Lat2)

+ · · · + sin(90 − Lat1) ∗ sin(90 − Lat2) ∗ · · · ∗ cos(long1 − long2))
+ 110,000 (3)

After obtaining the absolute error of each of the 35 observations, for the two
methods and for the three block factors, the researchers proceeded to calculate the
average of each one summarized in Table 1.
To make the comparison between the two systems, it is necessary to make the
hypothesis that allows the performance of the system to be evaluated with respect
to the precision parameter, so the null hypothesis states that there is no significant
difference between the two systems, while the alternative hypothesis states that there
is a significant difference. This is established by comparing the mean and variance.
The structure of the ANOVA in a Completely Random Block Design (CRBD) [17].
The deducted results are used for the calculation of ANOVA (Table 2).
Finally, the results shown in Table 2 allow to reject the null hypothesis and accept
the alternative hypothesis that there is a significant difference between the GPS and
GPS + IMU, since the test statistic F, calculated by dividing the mean square of
both the method and the block for the mean square of the error, is greater than the

Table 1 Mean error (CM) of

Method Speed (m/min)
the main and block factor
40 160 280
GPS 95.4 112.5 342.2
GPS + IMU 6.5 10.3 12.4
Coupling Architecture Between INS/GPS for Precise … 405

Table 2 ANOVA
Source of Sum of square Grades of Mean square Test statistic F Critical F
variability freedom
Methods 205,241 1 201,451,456 7078 182
Speeds 10,253 3 395,678,965 1.58 203
Error 6743 3 38,512,459
Total 211,237 6

critical F obtained from Fisher’s Table F [18]. As for the block factor evaluated,
which is speed, Table 2 suggests that this factor does not significantly influence the
response variable. This means that the method used to obtain the positioning strongly
influences the response variable, which, in the case of this experiment, is the distance
between the real point and the point measured by the device, that was specified as
an absolute error.
The comparison between the values of the average of GPS is 93.5 cm while
INS/GPS in 40 m/min records the average of 5.6 cm; the difference in the average
of the positioning error is 88 cm, which is significantly critical for applications in
navigation, thus proving the reduction of the inaccuracy in positioning when coupling
the satellite navigation system (GPS) with inertial sensors. Figures 5, 6, 7 and 8 show
the results of latitude and longitude scatter data comparison of the tests performed.
The first 10 points of the total 35, in reference paths, are analyzed from GPS and
GPS + IMU at speeds of 40 and 208 m/min. The developed algorithm allows the
integration and graphic visualization of the raw data of each system, as well as those
coupled between the GPS and inertial systems in real-time, with options to visualize
the positioning data of the evaluated trajectory.

Fig. 5 GPS versus (GPS +

IMU) a 40 m/min
406 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 6 GPS versus (GPS +

IMU) 208 m/min

Fig. 7 GPS versus (GPS +

IMU) a 40 m/min

4 Conclusions

The global positioning system was analyzed by determining the main errors that
occur in the GPS receiver equipment. In addition, the ultra-narrow coupling archi-
tecture was selected in order to implement GPS technology to the inertial navigation
system through the Kalman filter. The components selected for the implementation
of the prototype consist of the GPS NEO 6M module, the IMU MPU 9250 sensor,
and the Arduino MEGA board [19] since their technological and economic char-
acteristics are in line with the objective of implementing a low-cost prototype with
high performance in terms of positioning accuracy. The ultra-narrow coupling archi-
tecture allows merging the raw data and eliminates correlated errors by increasing
Coupling Architecture Between INS/GPS for Precise … 407

Fig. 8 GPS versus (GPS +

IMU) a 280 m/min

the accuracy of the navigation solution. The analysis of the achieved accuracy is
evaluated through the mean and variance of the measured coordinates along the
established trajectory, by calculating the absolute error between the real and the
measured coordinates.

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Intelligent Distributed Data Warehouse. ANT/EDI40 2019, pp 1249–1254
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k-Means for Innovation Databases in SMEs. ANT/EDI40 2019, pp. 1201–1206
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Vehicle Flow Prediction Through
Probabilistic Modeling

Jesús Silva, Noel Varela, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, Vladimir Álvarez,
and Boris de la Hoz

Abstract Within the area of wireless and mobile communications, ad hoc vehicular
networks have generated the interest of different organizations, which has generated
a topic of study and analysis for the increase of applications, devices, technology
integration, security, standards, and quality of service in different areas (Zhu et al. in
IEEE Trans Veh Technol 64(4):1607–1619, [1]) and (Tian et al. in A self-adaptive
V2V communication system with DSRC, pp 1528–1532, [2]). This study on vehicle
networks shows a great deal of opportunity and motivation to deepen the aspects that
involve it, which have emerged due to the advance of wireless technologies, as well
as research in the automotive industry. This allows the development of networks with
spontaneous topologies with vehicles in constant movement in several simulations
(Mir and Filali in LTE and IEEE 802.11p for vehicular networking: a performance
evaluation, pp 1–15, [3]), with reliable vehicle flows, through the share of traffic
information, considering that continuous mobility is an essential characteristic of a
VANET vehicle network, which can have short changes in terms of groups of vehicles
in the same direction (Lokhande and Khamitkar, 9(12):30–33, [4]). The following

J. Silva (B)
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
N. Varela
Universidad de la Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
V. Álvarez
Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios—Uniminuto, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
B. de la Hoz
Corporación Universitaria Latinoamericana, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 409
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_36
410 J. Silva et al.

paper uses a road scenario called VANET to obtain a predictive characterization of

vehicle flow using a probabilistic model.

Keywords Mobility · Probability · SPH · Vehicular flow · Markov chains ·

Stochastic model

1 Introduction

Ad hoc vehicular networks are composed of a set of vehicles equipped with wireless
network devices capable of interconnecting each other without having a previous
infrastructure [5], thus obtaining a certain route, since it can provide location service
and weather information and also use them in different applications within telecom-
munications [6]. Through these networks, traffic congestion can be determined since
there are different approaches if one wishes to coordinate the state of traffic in terms
of mobility that goes from free flow to seriously congested which is where the greatest
number of cars circulate [7]. This is where the movement and prediction of vehi-
cles that have a certain degree of complexity are taken into account in a simulation
with several roads that are analyzed in detail, so the characteristics and prediction of
mobility within a VANET are based on several map models with predefined routes
where the number of vehicles has an important role for the network performance
to be effective [8]. Similarly, in order to develop this type of study and simulations
that offer greater performance in predicting vehicle flow, mobility must be analyzed
based on modeling represented by interaction between vehicles, taking into account
the transition of the cars during the journey [9].
However, the VANET network allows to enhance several applications in terms
of mobility and traffic efficiency, so the issue of congestion of the ad hoc networks
is analyzed [10], generating a vehicular flow to examine them through the Markov
chains that are discrete stochastic processes where the probability of an event depends
on the immediately preceding event. Therefore, the movement of each car is consid-
ered through the analysis of a mobility pattern, length change, or time between two
consecutive points. On the other hand, particle smoothing hydrodynamics (PSH) is
used to detect vehicle flow by plotting instantaneous waves according to the number
of cars found in the simulation [11]. By comparing experimentally modeled data,
the type of mobility in a proposed range can be distinguished since traces of data are
generated for pre-established vehicle movements so that changes in mobility flows
are generated for efficient road evaluation in a given time [12].

1.1 Development of a VANET Using Markov Chains

In mobility, it is known that experiments evolve over time, that is, they are no longer
independent; therefore their future state will have a probabilistic dependence on the
past. This means that the next value of an experiment depends on the past values, only
Vehicle Flow Prediction Through Probabilistic Modeling 411

through the current value of the process performed, considering a scenario where
there is vehicular traffic for its analysis, where it should be taken into account that the
future state will depend on the probabilities of transitions at each instant of time [13].
With this background, the Markov chains that estimate only the current location of
a group of vehicles to predict the next are considered and examined, since mobility
is modeled as a discrete stochastic process with successive values over time, where
the probability of moving a vehicle depends on the previous visited state [14].

1.2 PSH (Particle Smoothing Hydrodynamics) in VANET

The formulation of particle smoothed hydrodynamics is an interpolation method that

approximates values of continuous field quantities by using discrete sample points.
These sample points are identified as smoothed particles that transport concrete
entities and are grouped to approximate those derived from continuous fields using
analytical differentiation into particles that are arbitrarily placed so that their value is
determined based on the values involved in the vehicle network [15]; therefore, a fluid
is a difficult phenomenon to simulate and much more complex to do it interactively
because, during the process, different mobiles are involved to interact with each other
to determine the vehicle and mobility analysis; in fact, this method is used by means
of mathematical equations that describe its movement, that is why nowadays PSH is
used to obtain new and better procedures to simulate and to visualize the transport
of fluids.
Therefore, hydrodynamics of smoothed particles within VANET takes a certain
group of vehicles that are represented as a set of particles; then, high-resolution
images are produced when visualizing the vehicle flow using techniques such as ray
tracing in which circumferences of different radius are observed in preliminary areas
with more vehicle traffic where there is great interactivity of vehicle flow [16].

2 Methodology

A road system is established where a simulated scenario of a VANET mobility

network will be performed to predict congestion in the traffic flow [17].
From the mobility network, the problem represented is determined by means
of the following approach: Using the data trace obtained previously, the streets and
vehicles are loaded on the mobility network of a VANET in a high-level programming
language where the mobility scenario is visually presented to locate the vectors xfij0,
yfij0, xfijf, yfijf, which contain the initial and final points of the streets that are going
to be represented by means of a line divided into M segments that represent a place
on the road [18].
Then, the cars begin to move, generating congestion on the routes that make up
the mobility network, and using the PSH model used in Eq. (1). Values of quantities
412 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 1 Transitions in various

avenues in a mobility
network

represented in a discrete way are approximated, where predetermined groups of cars

begin to be produced throughout the road network. These are the same ones that
are causing vehicular traffic around all the avenues where the affluence is greater,
and later make the modeling of vehicular flow where the positions are going to be
evaluated based on the height h and radius r of the external fields analyzed, which
sequentially vary in size during the simulation time and, therefore, in each instant
will occur events that determine the change of mobility in the VANET road network
[19].
 3
315 h2 − r 2 0≤r ≤h
Wdefault (r, h) = (1)
64π h 9 0 r >h

After obtaining the largest number of vehicles on the road network, a stochastic
process should be carried out represented by k(1), k(2), … where k(t) is the number
of vehicle sets analyzed in different positions with different radii during a time t as
shown in Fig. 1.
The probability model algorithm describes the process of obtaining the state
diagram using the position and radius of the vehicles in a transition.

2.1 Vehicle Flow Probability Model in a VANET

Equation 2 represents a discrete time process in which a random variable X n changes

over time and is characterized because the probability X n = j only depends on the
immediately preceding state of the road system X n−1 . Equation 3 represents a finite
homogeneous chain with m possible states E 1 , E 2 , …, E m , where i, j = 1, 2, …, m.
If pij > 0, then it is said that the state E i can communicate with E j of the mobility
network. Therefore, the communication can be mutual if also pij > 0. Equation 4
Vehicle Flow Prediction Through Probabilistic Modeling 413

states that for each fixed i, the series of values {pij } is a probability distribution,
since, at any step, some event can occur E 1 , E 2 , …, E m . The values pji are called
transition probabilities and must be greater than zero. Equation 5 indicates that for
each i = 1, 2, …, m. All these values are combined to form a transition matrix T of
size m × m where the sum of its rows has the value of 1; in addition, the elements are
greater than zero and not negative since the probabilities in the process of predicting
the vehicular flow are shown there. Equation 6 limits the transition of each vehicle in
several steps because the probability matrix pij chooses each element in the ith row
as well as in the jth column to display them together once the process is completed.
Table 1 presents the nomenclature used in the paper, which is divided into two parts,
namely parameters and variables, each with its respective domain and interpretation
[14].

P(X n = j|X n−1 = i) (2)

pi j = (X n = j; X n−1 = i) (3)


m
pi j > 0, pi j = 1 (4)
j=1

Table 1 Variables and

Name Domain Interpretation
coefficients in the model of
vehicle flow probability in a Parameters
VANET M Z >0 Number of segments of a road network
N Z >0 Number of vehicles
xfij0, yfij0 Q >0 Initial coordinates of the segments
xfijf, yfijf Q >0 Final segment coordinates
t0 Z >0 Simulation time
Variables
Posa Z >0 Previous position
Rada Z >0 Previous radius
Pos Z >0 Current position current radius
Rad Z >0 Data matrix
P Q >0 Probability of initiation
Pstart Q >0 Output probability
Poutput Q >0 Probability of transition
r1 Q >0 Probability of occurrence
r2 Q >0 Probability of disappearance
r3 Q >0 Current and future status
Si, Sj Z >0 Probability matrix
p(m) Z >0 Initial status
Xn Z >0 Future status
X n+1 Z >0 Time for future probability
n Z >0 Future probability
pr Q >0
414 J. Silva et al.

⎛ ⎞
p11 · · · p1m
  ⎜ ⎟ 
m
T = pi j = ⎝ ... . . . ... ⎠; pi j = 1 (5)
pm1 · · · pmm j=1


m
pi(n)
j = P(X n = j, X n−1 = k|X 0 = i) (6)
k=1

3 Analysis of Results

The following map (Fig. 2) shows the roads to be analyzed, which are segmented
because the analysis is done on large avenues where there is a greater flow of vehicles
and approximately 2000 vehicles have been driven.
Figure 3 shows the variation of the radii during the simulation and also the different
positions that change according to the greater amount of vehicle flow in the entire
mobility network. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the VANET mobility network
in different segments where there is a greater number of cars, in order to obtain
average values that can be interpreted.
As indicated in Fig. 4, in segment 9 the number of cars tends to increase, which
indicates that there is a greater vehicle flow at that moment since approximately a
value of radius 20 is obtained within the simulation. However, in segment 4 there are
10 cars so the radius has a value of 9 and, finally in segment 1 there are 5 vehicles
which indicates a radius of 7, so in these segments there is a greater vehicle flow.
Finally, in Fig. 5 the state diagram is presented to describe the behavior of the
system that is being constructed according to the Markovian matrix that contains the
probabilities of changes of states. Then, the values that are presented in the following

Fig. 2 Road map of a

VANET network
Vehicle Flow Prediction Through Probabilistic Modeling 415

Fig. 3 Vehicle flow analysis

Fig. 4 Vehicle flow analysis

with car variation

Fig. 5 Percentages of
vehicle flow in a VANET
416 J. Silva et al.

way are observed in each circumference [Position or number of segments, Radius,

(Transition)]. A small section of the diagram shows that there is a 50% chance that
the car [14.5 (265)] will keep the same route, but 14% indicate that it can take another
route to [14.7 (267)] so that traffic will flow without congestion. In the same way,
there is a 29% chance that traffic will flow to the state [13.5 (245)], so it is a route
that should be used. On the other hand, 67% is the percentage that the state [14.6
(266)] maintains its same state. However, the probability of 33% indicates that the
state [14.6 (266)] will not change its trajectory, so there is more probability that it
will maintain its same route than that it will change to a different route.

4 Conclusions

This paper defines three steps for the characterization of vehicular traffic in a VANET
network. It starts with an initial road map that allows to visualize the streets divided
into segments, positions, or sections to be analyzed and, in the same way, to visualize
the vehicles in each segment in a dynamic way. Then, a probabilistic model is used
to determine the probability by means of the position, the radius, and time of the cars
where there is a higher density of vehicles. Later, the data traces obtained during
the simulation of the mobility network are analyzed to characterize, in a predictive
way, the vehicle flow by performing a performance analysis of a VANET. Finally,
the mobility in urban areas where the vehicle flow is higher is examined.

References

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Vehicle Flow Prediction Through Probabilistic Modeling 417

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protection in VANET. IEEE Access 8, 12768–12783 (2020)
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Strategies and Organizational Changes
for the Logistics Sustainability
of Military Aircraft: Towards the Digital
Transformation of In-Service Support

Manuel Antonio Fernández-Villacañas Marín

Abstract The new requirements of the support system of the air forces to respond to
the new international defence and security paradigm, as well as the implementation
of the new 4.0 logistics, imply a complete organizational, cultural and strategic
reinvention. This translates into the need to assume the permanent transformation
of the models and processes of integrated logistic support and in-service support
that guarantees the viability and sustainability of aerospace operations. The work
aims to generically explore the possible strategies and organizational changes that
are considered necessary to be introduced into the logistics sustainability systems of
military aircraft, in order to carry out the digital transformation of in-service support
within the exponential digital technological evolution.

Keywords Logistics sustainability · Digital transformation · Logistics 4.0 ·

Integrated logistics support · In-service support

1 Introduction

The current international defence and security scenario [1] determines changes in the
strategy that will guide the development of new operational concepts and the acqui-
sition of new military and police capabilities, and are based on three key premises.
Firstly, that the present and future strategic environment is uncertain, complex and
conflictive. Secondly, that no crisis can be resolved satisfactorily with the isolated
use of military or police means, which must be combined and integrated with other
initiatives of a civil, political, economic, humanitarian or informative nature. Finally,
the military and police forces need to have a balanced and adequate catalogue of capa-
bilities, both for conventional conflicts as well as for irregular and hybrid combat
against new risks and threats. As a result, the response of the nations, in addition

M. A. Fernández-Villacañas Marín (B)

M&M Planning and Project Management and Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 419
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_37
420 M. A. Fernández-Villacañas Marín

to the traditional defence and security capabilities, has integrated and needs to con-
tinue integrating new ones, in an approach in which the “source of military-police
advantage” is that of technology and economic-logistic capacity [2].
The general design of the support system that the air forces would need to respond
to the new international defence and security paradigm should generally meet a series
of requirements [3]. Among them which we can highlight: ensuring the sustainability
of their weapons systems and improve its availability in accordance with its national
and international mission assigned in the short, medium and long term; generating
sustainability in a highly uncertain geostrategic environment, with the ability to
project peace and security immediately in remote and different operating scenarios;
as well as increasing efficiency by optimizing the resources available in a scenario of
scarcity, avoiding internal duplicity, as well as between the air forces and industry.
Operations involving in-service support (ISS) of military aircraft, which are those
that guarantee the viability and sustainability of military and police force opera-
tions, are becoming increasingly critical due to the vast amount of human, financial
and material resources used, as well as their impact on operational availability. The
presence of weapons systems based on increasingly complex technologies and the
necessarily expeditionary nature of these forces (they must be projectable, flexible,
interoperable and fully suitable for joint and combined action) makes it essential to
develop a strategy for optimizing their sustainability. The development of a systemic
technological concept is necessary through the integration of the functions of pro-
curement, transport, maintenance, life cycle engineering and deployment of weapons
systems at all levels of performance and sophistication. This integration must also
be consistent with digital transformation initiatives and the incorporation of their
disruptive technologies, both those that are currently available and those, which will
in the future, correspond to a foreseeable exponential technological development.
The current situation of the production factors of the logistics sustaining services
of aerospace weapons systems is generically characterized by three main factors [4]:
• In the first place, decrease of its organic productive capacity through the progres-
sive deterioration of the productive fabric, especially due to the loss of qualification
of human resources.
• Secondly, increased need for support due to the arrival in-service of new weapons
systems characterized by greater technological complexity, as well as achieving
the end of their life cycle of some very old systems that are still in service and
difficult to replace.
• Finally, increases in maintenance costs and reduced budgetary resources generated
by continuous budgetary adjustments caused by public deficit reductions.
The combined effect of the foregoing factors, together with the need to avoid a
reduction in the quality that could jeopardize the safety of air operations, is reflected in
the delay regarding the execution of the work, resulting in a progressive deterioration
in operational availability.
Strategies and Organizational Changes for the Logistics … 421

2 Material and Method

2.1 Objectives, Methodology and Contents

The work aims to generically explore the possible strategic and organizational
changes that are considered necessary to be introduced into the aeronautical logistics
to carry out the transformation of in-service support of aerospace weapons systems,
within the foreseeable exponential digital technological evolution.
In relation to the methodology, the research has been developed under a systemic
conception through a systematized deductive process (top-down) that is comple-
mented by empirical evidences based on the author’s logistical and research experi-
ence and the evolution of his professional maturity, such as it is included in his cited
bibliography (bottom-up). The rest of the bibliographic review has served to synthe-
size the essential concepts and approaches on the investigated problem, reviewing all
this with a level of detail that is considered sufficient, looking for its original aspects
to guarantee objectivity and avoid interpretive biases.
To achieve the objectives, the work is structured in three parts in addition to the
introduction, after which the conclusions are synthesized. First, the concepts of in-
service support transformation within the integrated logistic support are analysed.
Second, as results, the digital transformation of the in-service support is studied taking
into account the main disruptive enabling technologies. Finally, as discussions, eight
strategies and organization changes for the logistics sustainability of military aircraft
that should guide such digital transformation are reviewed.

2.2 The In-Service Support (ISS) Transformation Within

the Integrated Logistics Support (ILS)

2.2.1 The New Logistics 4.0: Transforming Logistics to the Digital Field

The new logistics 4.0 involves the optimization and connection of all the elements and
processes of the supply and distribution networks. This should lead to improvements
in the effectiveness and efficiency of the management of orders and shipments, an
individual customer-oriented manufacturing that demands more personalized offers,
geolocation of customers, simultaneous multimodal omnicanality and optimization
of global routes, full adaptability, full international traceability of goods, reduction
of stock and necessary storage space, automation of payments and so forth [5].
The main objective is to link both the physical and virtual worlds in order to make
the industry, logistics and markets more intelligent, in order to achieve a model,
whereby innovation is collaborative, the productive means are connected, supply
chains are integrated and distribution and customer service channels are digital. In
other words, integration, holistic vision, coherence, collaboration, innovation and
flexibility are key concepts, which support the development of the new logistics
422 M. A. Fernández-Villacañas Marín

4.0. This requires the development of a new logistics strategy, the design of a new
organization and the management of the change towards a new digital culture, as well
as the implementation of new methodologies and processes within the framework of
the progressive incorporation of both current and future digital tools and technologies
[6].
The future development of the new logistics has shaped the theory of physical
Internet [7], which has been adopted in both the USA and the EU as a concep-
tual objective of logistics for 2050. It involves achieving an open global logistics
system, based on physical, digital and operational interconnectivity, through encap-
sulation, interfaces and protocol design, in order to move, store, perform, provide
and use physical objects throughout the world in an economically, environmentally
and socially efficient and sustainable manner. To do this, it is necessary to reach a
maximum level of global collaboration, redefining the competitive space, taking the
logistics processes out of it, and taking it only to the points of sale where customers
define the market shares of each product [8].
Finally, it is necessary to emphasize that this new digital culture and logistics
will have to, on the one hand, assume the development of a new holistic style of
humanitarian leadership. On the other hand, it would need to have a permanent
capacity for digital leadership that can ensure the most critical element for the success
of the evolution analysed that it collaborates and is fully involved, in other words,
the human factor [9].

2.2.2 The ISS Transformation Within the ILS

Integrated logistics support (ILS) in the aerospace field is an integrated and iterative
process for developing materiel and a support strategy that optimizes functional sup-
port, leverages existing resources and guides the system engineering process to lower
life cycle cost and decreases the demand for logistics, making the system easier to
support. In general, ILS plans and directs the definition and development of logistics
support and system requirements for military systems, with the goal of creating sys-
tems that last longer and require less support, thereby reducing costs and increasing
return on investments. ILS, therefore, addresses these aspects of supportability not
only during acquisition, but also throughout the operational life cycle of the system
[10]. The impact of ILS is often measured in terms of metrics, such as reliability,
availability, maintainability and testability, and sometimes system safety [11].
ILS includes the development of the different activities within the life cycle [12]
and although all of these activities are important in the aerospace field, it is necessary
to highlight some that are especially critical. These include, life cycle cost analysis
(LCCA) and logistic support analysis (LSA) with an analytical approach to determin-
ing integrated support needs; manpower and personnel planning and management;
obsolescence management and the plan for supporting technologies embedded in the
fleet with a long-term approach given the very rapid changes in those technologies
and products; facilities planning; repair and overhaul planning; development of a
Strategies and Organizational Changes for the Logistics … 423

supply chain for essential spares, services, special tools and test equipment; reliabil-
ity engineering; maintainability engineering and maintenance planning preventive,
predictive and corrective; disposal planning; and above all the needs for informa-
tion and communication technologies and data science systems. The complexity and
scope of ILS programs varies from fleet to fleet and between nations. ILS should
start at the early stages of design and development, continue throughout the life of
the different weapon systems and requires access to both large amounts of data and
staff with specialized skills.
On the other hand, in-service support (ISS) refers to the post-acquisition support
of an established fleet. Where ILS is the analysis, planning and support set-up, ISS
is the provision of support over the entire life of the fleet. An ISS plan is then
developed and the program processes are defined, as well as how they conform to
the procurement contract in order to form a fully integrated management system for
the overall program [10] (Fig. 1). The ISS program intends to provide long-term
support of the fleet. This presents costing, pricing and contract challenges given the
number of unknowns involved 20–25 years of ISS often costs more than the initial
fleet acquisition. The logistical support system for the fleet needs to be designed to
sustain a high level of operational availability and reliability in harmony with the
planned fleet mission profiles and expected usage. However, the support system has
to be capable of dealing with change and a wide range of levels of utilization and op-
tempo ranging from pre-deployment training thru to high intensity and unpredictable
combat deployments.

Fig. 1 Evolution of ILS/ISS cost [10]

424 M. A. Fernández-Villacañas Marín

A hump can be seen at the very beginning of a program that is associated with
initial ILS activities and the deployment of the fleet. In between initial operational
capability (IOC) and final operational capability (FOC), there is generally an interim
support program that causes the fleet to be operational and supports initial training
and deployments. ISS costs are the lowest at the start of the program, given that the
fleet is relatively young, the maintenance of the heavy depot level has not begun and
failures have to be kept to a minimum. There is certainly a need to support problems
as they emerge, and there is a need to collect and analyse the data to provide clues as
to the future reliability of the fleet. The cost rises as the fleet becomes older, which
culminates in high levels even with intensive support and frequently some sort of
life extension or modification program. There are instances for half-life restoration
programs that update platforms, update technologies, address known fleet problems
and return the fleet to a “like-new” condition. This activity can often provide a positive
net return on investment through reduced support costs in the year [10].

3 Results: The ISS Digital Transformation

The digital transformation of ISS of the air weapons systems needs to act in three
active lines [13]:
• Enabling technologies (Fig. 2): Select and progressively implement the most
appropriate technological solutions according to requirements, pre-existing
infrastructures, available IT systems, the capabilities of other resources, etc.

Fig. 2 Enabling technologies of the new logistics 4.0 [13]

Strategies and Organizational Changes for the Logistics … 425

• Processes: Create and implement a process management model, adapted to the

requirements of hyper connectivity, redesigning procedures from a lean and digital
perspective, integral approach to process and value chains.
• Strategies and organization change: Ensure firm support from top management,
progressive adaptation of the organizational model; actively manage the change
in implementation, with a comprehensive management of the project.
The deployment of enabling technologies is the factor that most conditions digi-
tal transformation as the driving force for change [14]. A wide range of applicable
technologies is available. The proposed logistics models must integrate these already
available technologies, but most importantly, they must make the progressive inte-
gration of other technological innovations of exponential evolution, which are being
developed in future, scalable. Regarding all these technologies, it is important to
emphasize the role that data science needs to play in ILS and ISS. This concept
unifies statistics, analysis and data analysis, data extraction, automatic learning and
its related methods and algorithms for understanding and analysing real phenomena
with large data. It employs techniques and theories drawn from many fields within
the context of mathematics, statistics, computer science and information science.
Data science is a key development to achieve a “system of systems”.

4 Discussions: Strategies and Organization Changes

for the Logistics Sustainability of Military Aircraft
Towards the ISS Digital Transformation

One of the preferred concepts of recent years in the defence sector has been transfor-
mation. We can define it as the process by which military advantages are achieved
and maintained through changes in operational concepts, structures and technolo-
gies, in such a way that it significantly improves operational capabilities within a
rapidly evolving environment [15]. Transformation therefore refers to the fundamen-
tal change in the form adopted by an organization to achieve its objectives; changes
in the way you work, interact, participate and even think about how to do things.
It means new methods, technology and processes [16]. Not only does it consist in
increasing budgetary allocations, but also mainly falls on the two most important
elements: qualified personnel and the time necessary for the development and exe-
cution of improvement plans [17]. The research effort that we have carried out, and
that we continue to carry out, has allowed us to determine a series of strategic con-
cepts on which to guide the improvement of the ISS within the strategy of its digital
transformation [13]:
(a) The strategic role that sustainability must play: Assuming that operational
needs should occupy the preferred place over other possible considerations,
the dilemma is to determine if logistics should sustain operations at any cost
or if the only possible operational effort is one that is logistically sustainable.
426 M. A. Fernández-Villacañas Marín

Beyond the management of day-to-day logistics problems, the strategic logis-

tical balance between present and future capacity requires the exercise of the
highest function of anticipating the future with a clear vision. The difficult bal-
ance between current availability, with research and future programs, lies at the
heart of the most sensitive strategic decisions.
(b) Empowerment of human resources and evaluation of their performance: The
general situation of military and civilian personnel dedicated to the tasks of
ISS is characterized by the lack of qualification in the new applied technolo-
gies and by their lack of motivation generated by factors of economic origin.
These include the non-direct relationship between compensation and respon-
sibility, or the compensation gap with the business aeronautical sector. Faced
with this situation, it is necessary to implement empowerment plans for the
personnel involved in ISS and the optimization of the work positions, on the
implementation of performance evaluation systems and objective measurement
of the workload, on the recruitment of the necessary personnel, on their remu-
neration mainly in terms of the allocation of incentives to production that relate
the remuneration with their performance, as well as with the revitalization of
continuing education programs that guarantee retraining and instruction in new
technologies.
(c) Dynamic balance between efficiency and effectiveness: On the basis of the tran-
sition in the orientation from the effectiveness to the efficiency paradigm, it
is very difficult to achieve a balance between operational effectiveness and
efficiency in short term. The assignment of higher priority to the operative
sometimes leads to unbalanced consumption of resources. Assigning a higher
priority to the economy of resources can also prevent operations from being
carried out within the necessary quantitative and qualitative parameters. On the
other hand, in relation to sustainability outsourcing, a consistency approach
is needed between competitive and cooperative outsourcing. The scarcity of
resources leads to a process governed by competitive principles whose main
objective is the reduction of costs instead of being oriented towards cooperative
management formulas, with shared objectives linked to services provision of
quality and long term [18].
(d) Optimization of the productive systems used: The international experiences con-
sulted in the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) centres to improve pro-
ductivity and optimize the use of resources, and not only in private industries but
also in military centres, show a wide field for the improvement of productivity.
It implies the use of the reengineering of methods and processes such as total
quality management (TQM), the six standard deviations method (six sigma) and
the optimization of production by elimination of wastes (lean). The combination
of the last two methodologies, known as lean six sigma (LSS), together with the
implementation of the theory of constraints (TOC), are considered to provide a
good basis for process improvement in the ISS [3].
(e) Integration of value and supply chains: The operational efficiency of the main-
tenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) centres depends on both the internal and
external chain of processes, which relates from the beginning to the end (from
Strategies and Organizational Changes for the Logistics … 427

the first supplier to the last user) the integrated value generation process. The
differential analysis between the value generated by each process and the cost
produced will allow us to know to what extent this process is more or less
efficient. Therefore, the management approach to the production of logistics air
support services for the different workshops must be integrated within the afore-
mentioned supply chain. The integrated management of each of these chains
will depend on the preparation of the corresponding strategic plan that, in view
of all sources of supply and all sources of demand, efficiently integrate those
processes, relationships and flows that guarantee a dynamic adjustment between
offer and demand [19].
(f) Performance-based Logistics: In the area of procurement, the contracting
modalities to be applied should be oriented preferentially towards the results.
The concept of performance-based logistics (PBL) is the acquisition of sup-
port as an integrated and affordable package of results, designed to optimize
the availability and achieve the performance objectives of a weapons system,
through long-term support agreements, with clearly defined lines of authority
and responsibility. Therefore, PBL strategies focus on results and not on the
acquisition of the initial or intermediate goods and services that merely make
them possible.
(g) Public-private cooperation, both national and international: The application
of public-private cooperation in the ISS entails a change of philosophy and
mentality in the public organizations involved that will go on to manage cer-
tain essential services through a strategic partnership with private companies,
including financial entities, assuming these risks and shared responsibilities
with air forces. The advantages for both parties in applying these public-private
partnership models are straightforward. On the one hand, it can mean higher
levels of rationalization and efficiency for the air forces, as well as important
savings through the reduction of military and technical assistance of the individ-
uals involved, the reduction of investment costs of the facilities and equipment
(avoiding duplicate expenses, large investments in spare parts that need to be
maintained during the long life cycles of the systems, reducing the costs of con-
tinuous training, technical documentation and its corresponding updating, etc.).
On the other hand, the industry of defence can obtain a new field of business
development induced by the greater investment capacity derived from public
savings, addressing the development of new defence and security systems that
will make feasible the strengthening of the industrial base and technology of
that sector. Moreover, and perhaps most significantly, the function of the public-
private co-management models imply a permanent and bidirectional transfer of
knowledge between the public and private sectors. This involves the adaptation
and dynamic adjustment to the major changes that the exponential digital evo-
lution will generate to that “unique entity” formed by the structures of the air
forces and the participating companies, in a synchronic manner [6].
(h) The new role of information and logistics intelligence: It is necessary to empha-
size that the essential element consists in the provision and elaboration of the
information and logistic intelligence beyond the mere information systems for
428 M. A. Fernández-Villacañas Marín

the management, in order to turn them into authentic holistic systems of support
for the decision. The transition has to be carried out through the development of
complex analytical models (qualitative and quantitative) of interaction between
the various factors (internal and external) involved in each process; finally,
through the combination of systems, reach the “system of systems”.

5 Conclusions

The new requirements of the air forces support system to respond to the new interna-
tional defence and security paradigm and the new logistics 4.0 implicate a complete
organizational, cultural and strategic reinvention. This translates into the need to
assume the permanent transformation of the models and processes of integrated
logistic support (ILS) and in-service support (ISS) which guarantees the viability
and sustainability of aerospace operations. In-service support (ISS) typically refers
to the post-acquisition support of an established fleet where ILS is the analysis, plan-
ning and set-up for support, ISS is the provision of support over the entire life of the
fleet.
In relation to the implementation of the enabling technologies a great diversity
of applicable technologies are available but it is important to emphasize the critical
role that data science has to develop in ILS and ISS, the key development to reach
the effectiveness implementation of the digital transformation.
Finally, the research effort that we have carried out has allowed to determine
some strategies concepts and organization changes for the logistics sustainability
of military aircraft towards the ISS digital transformation: the strategic role that
sustainability must play; the empowerment of human resources and the evaluation
of their performance; the dynamic balance between efficiency and effectiveness;
the optimization of the productive systems used; the integration of value and supply
chains; the implementation of PBL systems; national and international public-private
cooperation; and the new role of information and logistics intelligence.

References

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University–Industry Collaboration
Barriers: Project Management Solutions
for Defense R&D—A Case Study

Anibal Jara-Olmedo, Mauricio Quisimalin, and Danilo Chavez

Abstract The defense industry must be at the forefront of technology innovation in

order to accomplish its mission but an isolated research system suffers of limitations
about human capital, specialized resources or facilities. An alternative to improve
defense innovation system is the establishment of cooperation agreements with uni-
versities. However, university–industry collaboration presents numerous barriers for
an adequate implementation. These barriers could increase when the goal is the inte-
gration of civilian and military innovation structures. This paper discusses how the
Research and Development Center of the Ecuadorian Air Force overcomes these bar-
riers by project management solutions. A long-term and multidisciplinary project is
presented as a case study. The center becomes the link between the defense industry
and universities creating a support and administrative structure for this project. The
case studies validate barriers identified in the literature and present some solutions
for cultural, institutional, and operative barriers.

Keywords UIC · University–industry collaboration · Defense industry · Project

management · Barriers

A. Jara-Olmedo (B)
CIDFAE Research and Development Center, Ambato, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
M. Quisimalin
Dirección de Investigación Y Desarrollo (DIDE),
Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ambato, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Chavez
Departamento de Automatización Y Control Industrial,
Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 431
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_38
432 A. Jara-Olmedo et al.

1 Introduction

Over the years, special attention has been devoted to the collaboration between uni-
versity and industry as an important field of study related to knowledge exchange,
collaborative research, research contracts, or consultancy, which lead to technology
transfer and the increase of competitive industries [1]. The factors and processes
that contribute to the industry–university relationship need to be understood in depth
to establish agreements that will be efficient over time. This understanding influ-
ences the creation of initiatives and activities that contribute to the fulfillment of
the objectives of the collaboration [2]. Industries and universities may have differ-
ent perspectives on several aspects, including technology transfer, dissemination of
results, or motivations. However, access to research funding and knowledge benefits
are strong drivers of this relationship [3].
The defense sector requires flexibility and adaptability when establishing indus-
try–university collaboration agreements. This adaptability will need to be supported
by the culture and resources of all participating institutions [4, 5]. The absence of
these requirements in the establishment of agreements may result in industry–uni-
versity relations that fail even before they have started. Therefore, it is a logical
extension to assume that the creation of the conditions to support industry–univer-
sity collaboration may be associated with the need for an alignment in several areas
between universities and industries [6]. This lack of alignment can cause obstacles,
such as differences in institutional and organizational culture, problems with project
management, or different visions of research [7].
Industry–university collaboration barriers have been studied from different points
of view including frameworks, hindering forces, external support, and among oth-
ers [8–10]. These studies identify characteristics to facilitate the success of this
relationship. However, a case study can present the results from the experience of
practitioners and managers involved in the overcoming of those barriers. The nov-
elty of this article is its analysis of how a Research and Development Center can
build an effective defense sector–academia relationship and enhance the innovation
performance of their partners from the perspective of project management.
Based on a preliminary literature review, the framework of the data collection
is defined to find the barriers for this particular case. The paper aims to present
and discuss the solutions proposed by the Research and Development Center of the
Ecuadorian Air Force for the barriers identified in the defense industry–university
collaboration. First, a brief explanation of the center mission and goals is presented.
Second, considering obstacles presented the barriers are identified and grouped to
define them. Then, the solutions adopted by the R&D Center to overcome these bar-
riers are detailed. Finally, there is a discussion about the application of the solutions
in other cases.
University–Industry Collaboration Barriers: Project … 433

2 Methodology

First, a review of the existing literature on collaboration between industry and uni-
versities was carried out. The motivations, advantages, benefits as well as the barriers
to that collaboration were determined. At the same time, it was identified the pecu-
liarity of this collaboration when the defense industry is analyzed. The information
collected allowed to design a questionnaire used as a guideline for the interviews to
verify whether all the aspects are include in the research.
The gathering of information and data was based on in-depth interviews with
industry and universities personnel who participated in the project. The interviews
have been done with three former directors and four departmental heads of the R&D
Center, two project coordinators from universities and four former advisers to the
Ministry of Defense. All these people were involved in the project at least one year.

3 The Research and Development Center

The Research and Development Center of the Air Force has the mission to pro-
viding solutions to the technical–operational problems of the military aircraft fleet
as well as to the equipment and systems of the armed forces by the development
of technological innovation. It has an administrative structure to manage resources,
infrastructure, and funding destined to defense projects. The R&D Center is part
of the Ecuadorian Air Force; for that reason, it has a military hierarchical nature,
since its organizational structure is based on the macrostructure of the armed forces.
However, a new management model was introduced to administrate R&D in coop-
eration with universities. The defense industry and the universities were linked by
collaboration agreements for the development of specific R&D projects.
For this case, the “UAV project” is considered as example for analysis of industry–
university collaboration management. This project had a duration of five years, and
the main goal was the design, construction, and validation of an unmanned air system.
The technologies developed include aircraft structures, automated flight control, and
data and sensors integration. The project was funded by the Ecuadorian Ministry of
Defense.

4 Obstacles and Barrier to University–Industry

Collaboration

Collaboration between industry, university, and research organizations has been car-
ried out view describing motivations, benefits and obstacles from the point of view
of the university and from the point of view of the industry [4, 11, 12]. University–
industry collaboration may have identified generic barriers, but R&D schemes for
434 A. Jara-Olmedo et al.

defense sector may differ depending on each country. Consequently, specific barri-
ers for defense industry–university collaboration must be established. The analysis
considers generic barriers to select those more important for the case study. These
barriers have been grouped considering the classification of cultural, institutional,
and operational barriers.

4.1 Cultural Barriers

4.1.1 Defense Industry Research Is Short-Term Oriented

Universities develop rigorous R&D regarding the scientific method whose expected
result is new knowledge. On the other hand, the defense industry develops R&D often
prioritizing innovation in the applied technology to military systems. The above is
also translated into development time. For universities, development time must go
hand in hand with the appropriate application of the research methodology. However,
for the defense industry, the time must be as short as possible, based on adequate
administration and optimization of resources, which allows to obtain technologi-
cal advantages in the short term. For this reason, the university–defense industry
collaboration may be subject to barriers related to the long-term research vision of
universities. Fundamental research carried out by Ph.D. students must be academ-
ically rigorous and demanding enough to guarantee its inclusion in the student’s
doctoral thesis. On the other hand, defense industry may have a shorter-term vision;
it could focus on information and knowledge of collaboration to improve a product
or service offered for military forces [2].

4.1.2 Different Interests on Dissemination of Research Results

The impact of R&D can be measured by the innovation achieved in the development
of technologies [13]. This knowledge is materialized in the patents obtained or papers
published in specialized journals. The dissemination of the results allows positioning
and improving the prestige of the organizations that carried out the R&D [14]. How-
ever, in most cases, the results for the defense industry must be confidential in order
to exploit the technological advantage that can be obtained from R&D. On the other
hand, universities want their results to be disclosed as soon as possible in order to
demonstrate their research progress. This divergence of priorities must be managed
in R&D agreements because universities consider the delay of the dissemination of
research outcomes as one of the main conflicts in university–industry collaboration
[7].
University–Industry Collaboration Barriers: Project … 435

4.2 Institutional Barriers

4.2.1 Different Nature of Work

Defense industry seeks the innovation of technology to help the mission of its military
forces; for that reason, they prefer applied research in the short term. On the other
hand, universities seek to establish new knowledge through the rigorous application
of the scientific method; consequently, they develop basic research in the long term,
and the results sometimes are not immediately applicable. This research focus can
be related to the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) that establishes a scale for the
evaluation of technological maturity, which allows the project manager to adopt a
technology for a critical function within an element of the system [15]. It has been
observed that universities will tend to focus on fundamental research related to a low
Technology Readiness Level, while industries will tend to be driven by the availability
of technology with a higher TRL [16]. As noted above, it is necessary to establish
a proximity between academic research interests and industrial requirements for
research in order to improve the perspectives of R&D collaboration.

4.2.2 Lack of Integration Between Military and Civil Innovation

Systems

Innovation systems of defense sector have focused on aspects such as the appli-
cation of dual technologies, conversion, and diversification of military technology,
consequences of innovation in armament or the search for a relationship between
organizations involved in the defense R&D [17]. With the exception of the USA,
most countries do not have a well-established system of cooperation between gov-
ernment–industry–universities, and defense R&D systems are not integrated with
the civil innovation mechanisms [6, 18, 19]. In other words, there is lack of cooper-
ation defense industry–other industries–universities, and it is required an adequate
administration and leadership system.

4.3 Operational Barriers

4.3.1 Lack of Government-Funding Alternatives

R&D projects in the defense field are prioritized according to operational needs but
also depend on the funding they can obtain [20]. Traditional military requirements
include recovery, maintenance, or modernization of weapons systems, development
of virtual training tools, or equipment repowering. However, there are new threats
for national security such as drug and arms trafficking, criminal incidence in aquatic
spaces, illegal mining, and natural or anthropic disasters [21]. As might be expected,
436 A. Jara-Olmedo et al.

governments prioritize R&D programs that enhance the development of applicable

technologies to these new scenarios, in order to make more efficient use of research
financing, infrastructure, and human capital [22]. In other words, the collaboration
between universities and defense industry will be restricted to the research fields that
can be funded and be in the interest of both parts.

4.3.2 Weak Project Management Structure

Plewa et al. [23] present four relational success factors (communication, trust, under-
standing, and individuals) to establish an adequate vision for managers on how to
administer successful and lasting collaboration agreements between the university
and industry. The collaboration between the university and the industry offers several
benefits for the parties involved; however, adequate management practices must be
established from the beginning of the project to even beyond its completion. Specif-
ically, a low level of administrative support for project management can become
an inhibitor of university–industry collaboration [24]. To conclude, it is necessary a
project management framework with an administrative structure and procedures for
the R&D activities.

5 Project Management Solutions for the Barriers

5.1 Cultural Barriers

5.1.1 Industry Research Is Short-Term Oriented

An R&D project is a long-term process, therefore in the short term the administration
of the project manages the priority and visible results that defense industry may
require. At the same time, fundamental research progresses, the R&D Center works
with products derived from the main research topic, which may be useful in the
military field. As a result, benefits are transferred to third parties in the form of positive
externalities, known as spillover. The spillover market effect can be evidenced when
the research works conclude in the generation or improvement of products or services
that can benefit users who did not have direct participation in the R&D project. For
example, the development of automated flight control requires the design of interfaces
integrating height, position, and speed data from UAV aircraft. From the flight control
research, end user software was designed for aerial reconnaissance systems. Sensor
video images were referenced and integrated with the trajectory of the aircraft to
show them on a 2D display. This derivative product can be considered as a mid-term
visible product for the stakeholders.
University–Industry Collaboration Barriers: Project … 437

5.1.2 Different Interests on Dissemination of Research Results

Before the research project starts, the R&D Center clearly defines the criteria for what
research results can be disclosed and which ones should be kept confidential. Within
the cooperation agreement, authorizations for the dissemination of results and the
committees designated for their evaluation are established. With these parameters,
defense sector and universities can present the results of the research project without
any conflict of interest. For the case study, the partial and final results of the R&D
project were presented in 19 technological meetings in different cities of the coun-
try as well as in two national seminars. Most important, 16 papers were published
in scientific journals and conference proceedings. Finally, 02 utility models were
presented for intellectual property protection.

5.2 Institutional Barriers

5.2.1 Different Nature of Work

Considering the nature of work of each institution, the R&D Center creates inte-
grated teams of military and civilian researchers. The research teams focused on the
development of the experimental concept and laboratory validation, i.e., low levels
of TRL, are leaded by universities. Research teams focused on the implementation
of prototypes in operating environments, where it was necessary to work with stan-
dards, regulations, and engineering orders for military systems, i.e., high levels of
TRL, are leaded by the R&D Center. Table 1 presents different TRL reached by the
technology developed in the project and who led the research teams. When a tech-
nological development reaches a TRL 6 level, R&D Center begins to contact final
user who can benefit from the applications and establish the environment for testing
and certification of the technology.

5.2.2 Lack of Integration Between Military and Civil Innovation

Systems

In addition to the university–industry collaboration agreements, R&D Center creates

a cooperation network with several universities to find solutions to specific problems
allowing the participation of engineering students for periods of less than one year.
Under this scheme, 22 technological innovation projects were included in the R&D
project. This network is also established with other industrial sectors for the con-
struction and provision of equipment, components, and parts for the project. Under
this scheme, the R&D project can use the industrial capacity installed in military
and civil organizations. To illustrate this collaboration the design, construction and
implementation of the ground control station for UAV was part of the R&D research
438 A. Jara-Olmedo et al.

Table 1 Research teams leaded by university or R&D Center according to TRL level
TRL/technology Aircraft Automated Data integration Sensors
structures flight control integration
TRL 1 Basic University University
principles
observed and
reported
TRL 2 Concept University University
and/or
application
formulated
TRL 3 University University
Analytical and
experimental
proof-of concept
TRL 4 University University R&D Center R&D Center
Functional
verification in
laboratory
TRL 5 Function R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center
verification in a
relevant
environment
TRL 6 Critical R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center
functions in a
relevant
environment
TRL 7 R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center
Performance for
the operational
environment
TRL 8 R&D Center R&D Center R&D Center
Completed and
accepted for
flight
TRL 9 Flight R&D Center R&D Center
proven through
successful
mission
operations

with the participation of electronic, computer, and mechanical innovation projects

from the universities and the construction capacity from mechanical industry.
University–Industry Collaboration Barriers: Project … 439

5.3 Operational Barriers

5.3.1 Lack of Government-Funding Alternatives

The funding of R&D projects can have several sources depending on the ability to
provide solutions to different stakeholders or sponsors. Therefore, the R&D Center
prioritizes the development of dual-use technologies, which satisfy both civil and
military requirements. The unmanned system project is already the development of
dual-use technology; however, its derivative products can be used for both military
and civil applications. Thus, the electro-optical sensors developed can improve the
capabilities of aircrafts used for surveillance and military reconnaissance, but at the
same time, they can be used for the monitoring of pipelines and strategic resources,
control of marine and natural reserves, support in natural disasters and search for vic-
tims, among others. Dual-use technology allows to fund R&D projects not just from
military sponsors but civil organizations related to the end users of the technology.

5.3.2 Weak Project Management Structure

The R&D Center adopted for project management the best practices presented by
the PMI Project Management Institute, under which the research was adminis-
tered. Additionally, administrative support was provided by the R&D Center, which
includes administrative, financial, and logistic personnel and infrastructure. This
project management team plans, executes, controls, monitors, and evaluates the
R&D project. Under this scheme, the participating organizations provide the teams
of researchers by requirement and temporality of the project manager. Considering
the PMI approach, the R&D Center works as a matrix organization, where human
resources must be obtained from functional departments. This functional depart-
ments are the universities with their research groups that provide people for the
multidisciplinary teams. With this coordination, one of the main advantages is that
researchers from universities concentrate their efforts on the R&D goals with a low
administrative workload (Table 2).

6 Conclusion

The barriers identified for the defense industry–university collaboration are over-
come for the Research and Development Center of the Air Force with a management
model considering the interests of all parties involved in these activities. Initially,
the defense industry and the university have very divergent expectations such as
the levels of research and the dissemination of results. However, at the same time,
the parties recognize the benefits of an association such as access to state-of-the-art
440 A. Jara-Olmedo et al.

Table 2 Project management solutions for barriers of UIC

Barrier group Barrier identified Solution
Cultural barrier Defense industry research is Effective communication with
short-term oriented stake holders about results
Cultural barrier Different interests on Specific criteria and committees
dissemination of research results created to authorize the
dissemination of results
Institutional barriers Different nature of work Teams leaded by university or
R&D Center for different levels of
research
Institutional barriers Lack of integration between Cooperation network with
military and civil innovation universities and other industry
systems sectors
Operational barriers Lack of government-funding Prioritization of dual-use
alternatives technology
Operational barriers Weak project management R&D Center provides
structure well-defined structure and
administrative process

laboratories and technology as well as research funding. An adequate understand-

ing of the interests and the formal establishment of alternatives to satisfy them are
an efficient methodology to create collaboration agreements. In addition, once the
collaboration is established, it is necessary an administrative structure and project
management procedures to define objectives, deliveries, and responsibilities.
The management model for the implementation of a collaboration agreement
established great advantages for the R&D Center. First of all, during and at the end
of the research project, dual-use technologies have been developed and let visualize
the results of the research among stakeholders. Second, the combined infrastructure
of the Research Center and universities facilitates the conduct of high-level defense
research. Applied research for military purposes is prioritized, but basic research has
been conducted satisfying all stakeholders’ expectations. Finally, multidisciplinary
and specialized teams have been integrated with military and civilian personnel,
getting the best capacities of each organization.
There is an interesting aspect that remains to be researched. After the project
ends, the research capacities should remain in military organizations to consider
positive the collaboration for the defense sector. The extension could be testing the
effectiveness of the R&D research teams after the university–industry collaboration
ends and when technology transfer becomes the main issue.

Acknowledgements The authors wish to express their sincere thanks to Universidad Técnica de
Ambato, Dirección de Investigación y Desarrollo (DIDE), for the institutional support to project
PFCA16 code.
University–Industry Collaboration Barriers: Project … 441

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Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining
Techniques for the Prediction
of Internment Times

Nuno M. P. Caetano and Nuno A. R. S. Loureiro

Abstract With data collection increasing in clinical information systems, it became

necessary to explore various technologies and methodologies to analyze this valuable
knowledge. The objective of this investigation was to obtain an optimized predic-
tive model of patient’s internment time in the Armed Forces Hospital, through the
discovery of behaviors and patterns existing in the internment process, based on
data mining techniques. The internments performed at the Armed Forces Hospital
between 2013 and 2017, were the population target of this research and, in view of the
objectives and the problem, the methodology that proved to be the most adequate was
the CRISP-DM methodology. In the data preparation phase, 19 input attributes were
selected, while in the modeling phase a regressive approach was applied with five
regression techniques: Decision Tree, Naive, Multiple Regression, Random Forest,
and Support Vector Machines. Random Forest was the best model, with a coeffi-
cient of determination 0.735 and predicting correctly 78.5% of the cases. Through a
sensitivity analysis, was verified that the four most significant attributes, related to
the patient’s clinical situation, contribute more than 50% to the explanatory capacity
of the new model: Hospital Episode Type (31.9%), Physical Service (8%), Medical
Specialty (7.5%), and Discharge Destination (7.2%).

Keywords CRISP-DM · Data mining · Length of stay · Prediction model ·

Internment times

N. M. P. Caetano · N. A. R. S. Loureiro (B)

Military University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]
N. M. P. Caetano
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 443
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_39
444 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

1 Introduction

Recently, new technologies have supported the rapid development of health support
information systems (IS) [1]. Currently, health institutions use IS that simplify the
entire communication process, reducing the bureaucracy of processes, increasing the
amount and quality of data, improving response time and increasing quality of care to
patients. The volume and complexity of the information generated by IS, combined
with human limitations, condition the extraction of knowledge, making it difficult to
analyze and understand them.
The data mining process (DM) arises from the need for knowledge discovery,
through the development of methods and techniques for extracting knowledge from
information stored in databases (DB) [2]. DM is a process of identifying new patterns,
potentially useful and fundamentally intelligible [3]. DM requires knowledge of the
processes behind the data so that questions for analysis are defined, selecting the
relevant data for answering questions and interpreting the results of the analysis [4].
Thus, the use of techniques, processes and consequent development of DM models,
supported in the IS of a hospital institution, becomes feasible, in order to create
intelligent information about the business.
Studies based on homogeneous diagnostic groups (HDG) [5] show that hospitals
that can control internment times significantly decrease the costs per admission and
the patient’s daily. The duration of internment is a factor to be taken into account
since prolonged ones represent a direct increase in resource consumption [6]. In
line with the above, hospitals aim to reduce the length of hospital stay, increase the
number of beds available for new internment and provide better health care to their
users. These objectives are also reflected by Domingos [7], referring that the merger
of military hospitals led to a subsequent reduction of about 94% of inpatient beds per
1000 potential users. A length of stay (LOS) forecast model for hospitalized patients
allows them to avoid prolonged internment periods, improve health services, and
more efficiently manage hospital resources.
Other studies in this area, such as the one carried out in 1998, Merom et al. [8]
estimated the rate of days of inadequate internments (failure in the criteria established
for admission) and the subsequent identification of the variables associated with this
Inadequacy. This study obtained a value of 8.6 ± 12.2 days for inadequate internment
and 6.1 ± 7.3 days for adequate internment. In 2007, Abelha et al. [9] evaluated the
LOS of adult patients, hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU) and underwent
non-cardiac surgeries between October 2004 and July 2005. The model adopted in
this study was a simple linear regression, and a mean LOS result of 4.22 ± 8.76 days
was obtained. In 2010, Oliveira et al. [10] evaluated the factors associated with higher
mortality and prolonged length of stay in an ICU. From the analysis performed, the
mean value of 8.2 ± 10.8 days of ICU admission and the identification of attributes
associated with the intended objective was concluded: APACHE II, tracheostomy,
and reintubation. Also, in 2010, Kalra et al. [11] studied the temporal trends of the
workflow of the internal medicine service of a university hospital, analyzing the
data obtained in three different periods of time and covering 13 years. In this study,
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 445

linear regression models were used that confirmed the monthly statistical increase
in the number of admissions of the internal medicine service from 117 (1991) to
455 (2004). Finally, it was confirmed that the LOS average decreased from 8.7 to
4.9 days. Pena et al. [12], also in 2010, evaluated the possibility of marking and
anticipating the LOS in an ICU. The collected data allowed to obtain the result of
4.2 days of stay on average in the ICU. More recently, in 2012, Freitas et al. [13]
investigated the discrepant LOS, studying the episodes of internment of Portuguese
public hospitals belonging to the national health system (NHS), between 2000 and
2009. In the analysis, logistic regression models were used to examine the association
of each variable with discrepant LOS, and the following results were obtained: nine
million episodes of internment analyzed (excluding ambulatory episodes), 3.9% of
discrepant LOS were identified for 19.2% of the total number of internments. Thirty-
five days were identified on average LOS for the case of discrepant values and 6 days
for non-discrepant values. They concluded that the variables age, type of internment
and type of hospital are significantly associated with high discrepant LOS. Rufino
et al. [14] studied, from August 2010 to March 2011, the factors that interfere in
LOS in a medical clinic ward. They also reported that in 2009 the national average
of LOS was 6.6 days, while in public hospitals of medium and high complexity
it was 9.3 days. Finally, they obtained for LOS an average of 20.9 days. In the
study conducted by Caetano [15] at the Portuguese Air Force Hospital (PAFH), it
was concluded that an episode of internment under internment regime had a LOS of
3.81 days. The medical service presented a LOS of 3.44 days, followed by orthopedics
service (3.14 days) and finally the services of surgery, specialties, and pulmonology
(2.98 days). The medical specialty internal medicine represented 4.42 days of LA,
followed by orthopedics (3.39 days), the specialty general surgery (3.14 days) and
Urology with 3.10 days. In the 2015 study, Caetano et al. [16] obtained 3.9 days of
LA for an episode of internment under internment regime.
As part of the merger process of the main military hospitals in Portugal, the Armed
Forces Hospital (AFH) was created as a single military hospital, organized in two
hospital centers, one in Lisbon and the other in Oporto.
Due to the close relationship between hospital LOS and hospital costs [17], in
which episodes with prolonged LOS are responsible for an important percentage in
the total days of internments, becomes essential to continue the study developed from
2000 to 2012 and compare with data from 2013 to 2017, facing all the organizational
changes identified earlier.
With this research, it is intended to adequately support the decision-making of
AFH, and that its conclusions potentiate a more efficient internment process, opti-
mizing the management of available beds, providing a higher average occupancy and
lower waste of hospital resources [18]. Therefore, it is the general objective (GO),
to obtain an optimized predictive model of LOS of patients in AFH, through the
discovery of behaviors and patterns existing in the internment process, based on DM
techniques. To reach the general objective, it is necessary to achieve the following
specific objectives (SO): SO1—Build a model for predicting LOS; SO2—Evaluate
the results obtained with previous identical studies.
446 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

In terms of the research problem, it is intended to answer two research questions

(RQ):
RQ1—“What is the best LOS prediction model for patients in AFH, based on DM
techniques, in order to optimize hospital LOS?”
RQ2—“How, after the merger of military hospitals, AFH was able to optimize
hospital LOS?”
From the RQ, the following hypotheses (H) arises: H1—A model was obtained
that allowed to make predictions with a margin of error of less than 30%; H2—
After the merger of military hospitals, AFH optimized hospital LOS, implementing
better management and planning of hospital discharges, which allowed increasing
the number of beds available for new admissions.

2 Conceptual Framework

During the exploratory phase and with the end of the initial bibliographic research,
a set of important concepts for the present investigation was identified.

2.1 Hospital Length of Stay

The hospital length of stay, previously identified as LOS, was another concept iden-
tified, a term defined as the duration of an inpatient episode, calculated from the day
of admission until the day of discharge, based on the number of nights spent in the
hospital. Patients admitted on the same day of discharge have a length of hospital
stay shorter than one day.

2.2 Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining

(CRISP-DM)

The last of the concepts identified was the cross-industry standard process for data
mining (CRISP-DM). The CRISP-DM methodology describes some approximations
used by experts to solve problems and build predictive analysis models. The method-
ology in question arose from the need to define a standard, non-proprietary and free
procedural model to systematize knowledge discovery. CRISP-DM methodology is
represented by a hierarchical process model and consists of a set of tasks with four
levels of abstraction: phases, generic tasks, specialized tasks, and process instances.
CRISP-DM is divided into the following phases: business understanding, data under-
standing, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, deployment. Lifecycle phases are
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 447

flexible, because at any point in the project it may be necessary to retreat to previous
phases, and the result of each phase determines the next phase to perform.

3 Method

Methodologically, this research will be developed according to hypothetical-

deductive reasoning, with a quantitative research strategy, in a longitudinal time
horizon and a case study type and comparative research design. Internments per-
formed in the AFH between 2013 and 2017 will be the target population of this
study and, in view of the objectives and the problem, the analysis methodology that
proves to be most appropriate is CRISP-DM methodology, obtaining a preference of
43% among professionals for problem-solving involving DM [20].

3.1 Business Understanding

At this stage, we aimed to understand the objectives and requirements of the business
perspective, converting this knowledge to the definition of a DM problem, defining
a plan and success criteria to achieve the objectives [21].
At the level of business objectives, it was presented as the main objective to
obtain a predictive model of LOS of patients in the AFH, through the discovery of
behaviors and patterns existing in the internment process, based on DM techniques.
To adequately support the decision-making of the AFH and enhance a more efficient
internment process, at the level of the business success criteria, the choice will fall
into the regression model that produces the values closest to the source data.
In the next step, it was intended to define business goals and trans-convert business
objectives to data analysis. Thus, in coordination with the direction of the AFH, it
was identified that the model should provide for LOS with a margin of error of less
than 30%.
To achieve the previously established goal, one wants to choose the regression
model that produces the values closest to the data, where the optimal regression
model has a value close to 0%. Finally, for the data modeling phase, the following five
regression techniques were identified: decision tree (DT), naive, multiple regression
(MR), random forest (RF) and support vector machines (SVM).
448 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

3.2 Data Understanding

This phase began with the acquisition of initial data, description, exploration, and
verification of their quality. The entire inpatient process had been identified in the
previous investigation, and all extracted attributes were already limited to a record
per user and by the number of internment process.
Data extraction was performed via SQL Navigator tool, running the script for
initial data acquisition, which allowed transposition to the manipulation file of DM
techniques (internamento.xls). Forty-four attributes were initially selected and the
data relating to the period from January 1, 2013 to May 31, 2017, recording 20,291
inpatient episodes. The 28 attributes (see Table 1) that will support the continua-
tion of the investigation were previously referenced by a panel of experts [15]. In
the following tasks of exploration, statistical analysis and distribution of attributes,
verification of data quality, Microsoft excel tools were used to eliminate Portuguese
characters (incompatible with the open-source rminer library) and open-source R.
Data analysis identified that qualitative attributes represent most of the selected
attributes (68%) and quantitative represent the minority (32%). It was verified the
existence of omitted values for some of the attributes (e.g. marital status with 8434
missing values), and that some of the qualitative attributes have a high number of
possible values (e.g. the 12,703 possible hours of inpatient), representing a high
dispersion, and may hinder the use of these same attributes by DM techniques.
The graphical visualization of the distributions of the attributes was then per-
formed, using the frequency diagram and the diagram of extremes and quartiles
(boxplot), which allowed the identification of the discrepant values (outliers) and to
analyze the degree of asymmetry of the distributions.
Summarized the analysis of the 28 attributes selected, within the scope of the
internment process, it was concluded that the user of the AFH is mostly male, predom-
inantly married, having basic education. It was during January that there were more
episodes of internment, mainly in the Surgical Department—Ward B and Surgical
Department—Ward A.

3.3 Data Preparation

At this stage we intended to analyze the attributes previously selected, transform

them, clean them, covering all the activities necessary to build the final dataset [21].
Due to the need of cleaning the data, several actions were performed, including
removal (deleted) of three episodes of internment, as they occurred in a situation of
internment service tests; elimination of the number of levels of the various attributes,
in order to facilitate the task of modeling and duplicating the data. In the case of
the attribute Escolaridade, 1767 instances were replaced by the value “NA” (Not
Available), because the codes did not present associated descriptive. A similar process
occurred with the 215 instances of the attribute Est_Civil, as they presented the
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 449

Table 1 Attributes selected for LOS

Attribute Description N° Nº Original Type of
validations selections classification treatment
(panel) (studies)
Patient features
Sexo Sex 8 7 Nominal Nominal
Dt_Nascimento Date of birth 1 – Date Nominal
Idade Age 8 7 Numeric Numeric
Pais Country 3 – Nominal Nominal
Localidade Address 5 – Nominal Nominal
Escolaridade Schooling 3 1 Nominal Nominal
Est_Civil Marital 4 – Numeric Numeric
status
Data from the internment process
T_Episod_Origem Origin 5 1 Nominal Nominal
episode
T_Episod_Intern Internment 5 2 Nominal Nominal
episode
Dt_Ped_Intern Internment 2 – Date Nominal
request date
Serv_Intern Internment 7 1 Nominal Nominal
service
Espec_Medica Medical 8 2 Nominal Nominal
specialty
Dest_Alta Destination 7 – Nominal Nominal
after clinic
discharge
N_Med_Alta Clinic doctor 5 1 Nominal Nominal
discharge
Tratamento Clinical 8 – Ordinal Numeric
treatment
Proc_Principal Main 9 2 Ordinal Numeric
procedure
Diag_Principal Main 7 6 Nominal Nominal
diagnosis
Diag_Inicial Initial 7 – Nominal Nominal
diagnosis
GDH GDH 5 – Ordinal Numeric
GCD GCD 2 – Ordinal Numeric
Dt_Internamento Internment 4 1 Date Nominal
date
(continued)
450 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

Table 1 (continued)
Attribute Description N° Nº Original Type of
validations selections classification treatment
(panel) (studies)
Mês_Intern Internment 2 – Nominal Nominal
month
Ano_Intern Internment 1 2 Ordinal Numeric
year
Hora_Intern Internment 4 – Date Nominal
hour
Dt_Alta_Intern Discharge 4 2 Date Nominal
date
Hora_Alta_Intern Discharge 2 – Date Nominal
hour
N_Intern_Anterior Number of 9 2 Numeric Numeric
previous
internments
Attribute to predict
N_Dias_Intern No of days 9 5 Numeric Numeric
of
internment

descriptive “Unknown”. Also, during this task, ten attributes were excluded due
to the existence of redundant attributes, high number of omitted values and low
theoretical relevance. After performing a first cleaning of the data, 18 significant
attributes and 20,287 episodes were totaled.
To solve the issue of omitted values in several attributes, because their existence
contributes to the decrease in the quality of the models, one can, for example, ignore
the records or replace them by applying various techniques: case substitution (value
assigned by an expert), cold deck (value taken from a database) and hot deck. In this
investigation, the hot deck technique was applied, which consists of looking for the
closest or similar example and consequent replacement of omitted values with the
value found [22].
The variables N_Dias_Intern and N_Intern_Anterior are biased to the left debut
of their values domain, and a transformation technique (log1p(x) function available
in tool R) was applied, which allowed to calculate the ln(x + 1) accurately and
facilitate the learning process in the next phase, having obtained new transformed
attributes (LG_N_Dias_Intern and LG_N_Intern_Anterior).
Once the task of cleaning the data was completed, the following task was
advanced: data construction with the inclusion of new attributes (derivatives) that
presented good relevance to the remaining investigation.
These attributes, Hora_Intern and Hora_Alta_Intern, were transformed (for-
mat changed to “HH”) because they had 12,703 and 8336 levels, respec-
tively. The attributes Escolaridade, Proc_Principal, Diag_Principal, Diag_Inicial,
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 451

Idade_Intern still had many possible values, having been simplified through the
delevels function, reducing their number of levels for analysis. Finally, and for better
data modeling, the attribute Mes_Intern has also been transformed.
After performing the necessary procedures to obtain good modeling of the data,
we advanced to the next phase with a total of 20 attributes and 20,287 records.

3.4 Modeling

According to Chapman et al. [21], at this stage, several modulation techniques are
selected and applied, and their parameters were adjusted to optimize the results.
It is important to mention that, as the attribute to be predicted is quantitative, the
approach chosen and explored was a regression, having tested different techniques
and metrics, such as the selection of the five regression techniques mentioned above
in the business comprehension phase (DT, naive, MR, RF, SVM).
The naive technique represents the forecast of the average values of the output
variable. DT works well with large datasets, many variables, with different types
of data, and its structure is relatively easy to follow and understand [23]. MR is
a model that requires little processing and easy interpretation by humans, while
RF is composed by a set of DT, built on the basis of an original data set. Finally,
SVM is based on the definition and use of support vectors that contain only the
most representative examples of the training universe, later applying a nonlinear
transformation to input attributes through a kernel function, that allows you to define
the optimal plan of separation between possible output classes [24].
Aiming to choose the model that best results obtain, it became necessary to apply
validation procedures to evaluate the predictive capacity of the obtained models.
In the holdout validation method, the sample data is divided into two sets: the
training dataset (2/3) is used to build, identify, and estimate the parameters of the
model, while the test dataset (1/3) is used to evaluate the accuracy and performance
of the model. The election model should be the one that best generalizes trained data
and what best identifies in learning new cases.
Another validation method used is k-fold, requiring a more elaborate procedure.
The data is divided into k partitions of the same size and in each run, a certain subset
is tested, and the rest are used for model training. In the case of k = 5, in each rotation,
a model is trained and the overall estimate of the model is given by the average error
of the test of the k rotations.
It is highlighted once again, that the chosen programming environment was the
R environment and the open-source rminer library. The regression problem began
with the exploration of simpler prediction models (naive, MR and TD), later moving
to more complex models (SVM and RF).
The open-source rminer library stands out the mining and save mining functions.
Mining is a function that trains and tests a model adjusted to the various executions
and validation methods: the runs parameter indicates the number of process runs, the
model parameter indicates the technique chosen, and the method parameter indicates
452 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

the form of validation. The holdout validation method was selected, with 2/3 for
training and 1/3 for testing, and with the completion of this process, the save mining
function archives the information and results obtained from the model for further
analysis and treatment.
After completing this initial experience and in order to obtain greater robustness of
the results achieved, 20 executions of each technique of the cross-validation methods
holdout and fivefold were carried out, emphasizing that 20 executions were applied
to each procedure fivefold, making up the total of 100 experiments for each test.
After all the tasks for obtaining the different models were completed, we
proceeded to the phase of evaluation of the results.

3.5 Evaluation

The objective of this phase was to evaluate the models conceived, verifying their
behavior in a test environment and ensuring that they meet the business objectives
[21], and the models were evaluated according to the business objectives previously
defined.
In regression models, it is intended to choose the one that produces values closest to
the data, having used regression metrics to evaluate the various models (for example
the R2 metric allows measuring the degree of correlation between predictions and
values observed). Based on the open-source R tool, namely the mmetric function
belonging to the rminer library, it became possible to calculate the regression metrics
and evaluate the quality of the obtained models.
Another method used to evaluate and compare regression models was regression
error characteristics (REC). The REC curve allows you to compare multiple regres-
sion models in a single chart, exposing the overall hit rate (axis of the ordered) to
various tolerance (T ) values of absolute error (axis of the abscesses). It is concluded
that the rate of correct answers is defined as the percentage of points that fit within
tolerance, and if the tolerance were zero, only the perfect prediction points would be
considered [19].
The last method used to evaluate the quality of the results obtained by the best
model was the regression scatter characteristics (RSC) dispersion graph, in which
the observed values are represented in the axes of the forecast values.
Finally, and in order to obtain more accurate and expressive information of the best
model obtained, the relative input importance (IMP) barplot and variable effect curve
(VEC) were used, proposed in [25]. The mgraph function of the rminer library allows
you to obtain the VEC curve for the most important attributes in model construction.
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 453

3.6 Implementation

The models obtained have good quality, and one of the possible scenarios to be fol-
lowed by the direction of the AFH involves the incorporation of the models obtained
in its current system, that is, in the electronic patient record system (EPR) that is part
of the hospital information system (HIS).

4 Results and Discussion

With the application of regression metrics, after selection in the previous phases
of regression techniques and application of the holdout validation method (2/3 for
training and 1/3 for tests), it was possible to first evaluate the quality of the obtained
models. Subsequently, 20 executions of each technique were performed, obtaining
the results of the mean error values of each model through the meanint function
(average calculation and confidence interval).
Being these the first models, it is to highlight the good performance of the RF
model obtained in the R2 metric the result of 0.726 (run = 1) and 0.73 (run = 20).
The good result in the other metrics compared to the SVM model is also highlighted.
In order to obtain greater robustness in the results, 20 executions were performed
with each fivefold validation method.
We confirmed that the evaluations made by the R2 metric, namely the value of
the RF model (0.735), result of the fivefold validation method, is higher than the RF
model value (0.73), the result of the holdout validation method (run = 20) and that
it fits the objectives listed by the direction of the AFH, identifying a model with the
capacity of predicting the LOS with an error margin of less than 30%. It was also
confirmed that the best results were obtained by the RF model, which surpasses other
DM models for all three-error metrics.
To verify that the results of the average error values of the two best models (RF
and SVM) of the fivefold validation method are effectively different from each other,
the student test was made. The t-test is a hypothesis test that allows to reject or not
a null hypothesis, and the probability of error is called p-value and the confidence
level by 1-p-value (probability that the confidence interval contains the parameter
value). The open-source R has the t-test function to perform the parametric test, and
the following hypotheses have been defined:
H0: The difference in the result of RF and SVM models is equal to 0.
Ha: The difference in the result of RF and SVM models is different from 0.
With a confidence level of 95%, H0 (null hypothesis) was rejected because there
is statistical evidence to state that the difference in the outcome of RF and SVM
models’ averages are significant, i.e., the p-value of 0.05. With the rejection of H0,
it was concluded that the result of RF model means is significantly higher than the
mean of the SVM model.
454 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

t((32,808)) = 33, 3374e p = [(1, 909882e)](−46)

To evaluate the results of the models, the mgraph function of the rminer library
was used, which allowed the REC analysis to be obtained.
The analysis of the REC chart confirmed the RF model as the best predictive
model, always presenting greater accuracy (y-axis) for any tolerance value (x-axis).
For example, for a tolerance of 0.5 (on the logarithmic transformation scale), the RF
model correctly predicts 78.5% of the test set examples. After a first analysis of the
REC chart, in the next step, it was possible through the normalized REC area and
tolerance metrics belonging to the mmetric function of the open-source R, to obtain
the precise values of the two best models (RF and SVM) for 11 variance values
absolute in the interval [0.1].
If the variance value is 0.5 the hit rate for the RF model is 0.785 and 0.77 for the
SVM model (0.015 lower than the RF model). It was also found that for all absolute
deviation values, the RF model presented a better precision compared to the SVM
model, with a difference ranging from 1.1 (to a tolerance of 1.0) to 8.3% (for a
tolerance of 0.1).
In conclusion, ensuring the requirement to obtain a model that would allow pre-
dictions to make forecasts with a margin of error of less than 30%, the RF model
with an absolute deviation of 0.4 (in the logarithmic transformation scale) was able
to predict correctly 73.6% of the cases and with an absolute deviation of 0.5 (in the
logarithmic transformation scale) a correct rate of 78.5% was obtained.
Finally, the mgraph function was reapplied with the graph = “RSC” parameter,
which allowed the RSC scatter plot to be obtained from the best available models and
their calculations for predicting the maximum error at the lower and upper extremes.
If for absolute deviation of 0.5 the RF model obtained a correct rate of 78.5%
of LOS, this means that it gives a maximum error of 0.65 days to the lower end of
the scale (0) and a maximum error of approximately 32 days at the upper end of the
scale (4.4).
Through the sensitivity analysis of Cortez and Embrechts [25, 26], it was possible
to graphically obtain the relative importance of the various attributes. The application
of the fit and importance function with the method = “DSA” parameter of the rminer
library allowed to extract knowledge of the generated model, in terms of importance
and average of the results of the analyzed attributes.
According to the analysis of the chart of Fig. 1, it was confirmed that the attribute
type of internment episode (T_Episod_Intern) presents an importance of 31.9% in
the definition of the generated model, followed by the most significant attributes:
internment service (Serv_Intern) with 8%, medical specialty (Espec_Medica) with
7.5% and finally the Destination of Discharge (Dest_Alta) with 7.2%. On the other
hand, it was also found that these four more significant attributes related to the
clinical situation of patients contribute more than 50% to the explanatory capacity
of the generated model.
In the last phase of analysis and in order to detail the influence of the most
significant attributes on the construction of the RF model, the VEC graph was applied
together with the importance function.
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 455

Fig. 1 Importance values 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
for model definition
T_Episod_Intern
Serv_Intern
Espec_Medica
Dest_Alta
T_Episod_Origem
Proc_Principal
Hora_Intern
Idade_Intern
Diag_Inicial
GCD
LG_N_Intern_Anterior
Diag_Principal
Hora_Alta_Intern
DiaSemana_Intern
Mes_Intern
Trimestre_Intern
Escolaridade
Est_Civil
Sexo

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

The VEC line segments clearly confirmed that an episode of ambulatory stay
is related to a lower middle LOS (0.24 on the logarithmic transformation scale,
0.27 days on the normal scale) when compared to the regimen in internment (1.59
on the logarithmic transformation scale, 3.9 days on the normal scale).
Regarding the media of influence of the Internment Service attribute, a higher LOS
was observed in the Medical Department—Ward B with a value of 2.86 days (1.35 on
the logarithmic transformation scale), followed by the Surgical Department—Ward B
with a value of 2.82 days (1.34 on the logarithmic transformation scale), the Medical
Department—Wing A service with a value of 2.74 days (1.32 on the logarithmic
transformation scale), and finally the Surgical Department—Wing A service with a
value of 2.6 days (1.28 on the t scale logarithmic transformation).
From the analysis of the third most relevant attribute, the Medical Specialty, it was
found that internal medicine is associated with the highest LOS (1.61 corresponding
to 4 days), followed by Orthopedics (1.38 corresponding to 2.97 days), Plastic and
Reconstructive Surgery (1.37 corresponding to 2.94 days) and finally Urology (1.27
corresponding to 2.56 days).
In order to comply with SO2, confirming H2 and responding to RQ2, the results of
the best models obtained in previous studies were compared [15, 16]. It is important
to note that in the 2013 study, 18 attributes, 14 attributes were used in 2015 and 19
attributes in this research for los prediction (2018).
From Table 2, it was concluded that the attribute type of outpatient episode under
the ambulatory clinic was lower in the 2015 study (0.1 days). In the internment
regime presented the lowest value in the 2013 study (3.81 days), not representing a
very significant difference for the other studies.
456 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

Table 2 Analysis of the

Study Importance in % Feature N° days
attribute type of outpatient
episode 2013 26,1 Internments 3,81
Outpatient 0,27
2015 30,1 Internments 3,9
Outpatient 0,1
2018 31,9 Internments 3,9
Outpatient 0,27
Note Outpatient episode up to 24 h from LOS

Regarding the attribute internment service presented in Table 3, there was a general
reduction in LOS in the 2018 study, compared to the other studies, totally confirming
the H2 presented.
From the analysis of the third most relevant attribute represented in Table 4, it was
found that the medical specialties of the last study present values significantly lower
than their counterparts in previous studies, concluding that the mean values of LOS
associated with the attributes Internment and Medical Specialty service decreased
compared to studies in 2013 and 2015.
Finally, in order to compare the average value of 3.9 days of internment obtained in
this investigation, in the international context, data obtained in the Eurostat statistical
report [27] were used, confirming that in Portugal (2015) the average LOS was
7.9 days, a significantly higher value than that extracted in this study (+4 days of

Table 3 Analysis of the

Study Importance in % Feature N° Days
inpatient service attribute
2013 12,3 Medicine 3,44
Orthopedics 3,14
Surgery and 2,98
pulmonology
2015 12,3 Medicine 3,3
Orthopedics 3
Surgery and 2,9
specialties
2018 8 Medical 2,86
Dep.—Ward B
Surgical 2,82
Dep.—Ward B
Medical 2,74
Dep.—Ward A
Surgical 2,6
Dep.—Ward A
Note 2013 and 2015—HFA internment services
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 457

Table 4 Analysis of the medical specialty attribute

Study Importance in % Feature N° days
2013 10,9 Internal medicine 4,42
Orthopedics 3,39
General surgery 3,14
Urology 3,10
2015 10,1 Internal medicine 4,2
Orthopedics 3,5
General surgery 3,1
Urology 3,1
2018 7,5 Internal medicine 4
Orthopedics 2,97
Plastic and reconstructive surgery 2,94
Urology 2,56
Note Medical specialties organized in descending order of LOS

internment). In the studies for 2016, the Netherlands (4.5 days) and Turkey (4.2 days)
presented the lowest values, but slightly higher than that observed in this investigation
for the AFH.

5 Conclusion

With the increasing increase in data in clinical information systems, it became neces-
sary to explore various technologies and methodologies for analyzing this valuable
knowledge. DM techniques have been successfully used in various business areas,
however, their use in the health sector for predicting LOS in hospitals could become
one of the biggest challenges for hospital managers.
The present investigation aims to obtain an optimized predictive model of LOS
patients in the AFH, through the discovery of behaviors and patterns existing in the
internment process, based on DM techniques.
The results of the evaluations performed by the R2 metric identified the RF model
(0.735), the result of the fivefold validation method, as being superior to the RF
model (0.73), the result of the holdout validation method (run = 20). Both models
previously identified presented an R2 metric higher than the established objectives
(0.7), it can be affirmed that good models were generated. At this stage, the SVM
model (0.695), the result of the fivefold validation method, presented a result at the
limit of the initially established.
The analysis of the REC chart confirmed the RF model as the best predictive
model, compared to the SVM model, always presenting greater accuracy for any
tolerance value. The RF model with an absolute deviation of 0.4 (in the logarithmic
458 N. M. P. Caetano and N. A. R. S. Loureiro

transformation scale) correctly predicted 73.6% of the examples of the test set and
with an absolute deviation of 0.5 was obtained a rate of correct answers of 78.5%.
The RF model with an absolute deviation of 0.5 obtained a correct forecast of
78.5% of the test set examples, meaning that it gives a maximum error of 0.65 days
to the lower end of the scale (A = 0) and an approximate maximum error of 32 days
at the upper end of the scale (B = 4.4).
The attribute Type of Internment Episode presented importance of 31.9% in the
definition of the generated model, followed by the following attributes: Internment
Service with 8%, Medical Specialty with 7.5% and finally the Destination of Dis-
charge with 7.2%. On the other hand, it was also found that these four more significant
attributes related to the clinical situation of patients contribute more than 50% to the
explanatory capacity of the generated model.
An episode of ambulatory stay is related to a lower middle LOS (0.27 days)
when compared to the internment regime (3.9 days). At the level of the inpatient
service, a higher LA was observed in the Medical Department service—Ward B
with a value of 2.86 days, followed by the Surgical Department—Ward B with a
value of 2.82 days, the Medical Department—Ward A with a value of 2.74 days, and
finally the Department of Part Surgical—Ward A with the value of 2.6 days. Finally,
based on the analysis of the medical specialty, it was found that internal medicine has
the largest LOS with 4 days, followed by the specialty Orthopedics with 2.97 days,
of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery with 2.94 and finally Urology with 2.56 days.
With regard to SO1, building a model for predicting the LOS, H1 has been con-
firmed, since a model was obtained that allows forecasts with a margin of error of less
than 30%. In response to RQ1, it was concluded that the best LOS prediction model
of patients in the AFH, based on DM techniques, in order to optimize hospital LOS,
is the RF model with a coefficient of determination of 0.735 and with the ability to
correctly predict 78.5% of cases.
Regarding SO2, evaluating the results obtained with previous identical studies, H2
was confirmed, and after the merger of military hospitals, AFH optimized hospital
LOS, implementing better management and planning of hospital discharges, which
allowed to increase the number of beds available for new admissions. In response to
RQ2, it was concluded that the processes implemented after the merger of military
hospitals allowed the decrease in the value of hospital LOS, according to the results
presented in this investigation when compared to previous studies.
One of the limitations that conditioned the progress of the investigation was the
implementation phase of CRISP-DM, proposing the incorporation of the models
obtained in the current clinical system of AFH.
The forecasting model obtained has contributed to knowledge, being an incentive
for this hospital institution to invest in improving the efficiency of their internal
processes and extracting useful information to support their decision-making, allied
with a series of compliance tests. With an accurate estimate of internment time, the
hospital can plan better management of available beds, efficient use of resources,
providing a higher average occupancy and lower waste of hospital resources [18].
This investigation provides several prospects for future work, and a similar study
can be applied in the forecast of time of occupation of the hospital operating room.
Business Intelligence: Use of Data Mining techniques … 459

In aeronautics, the study of models for predicting aircraft maintenance times may
be very relevant, allowing to optimize existing operational, human and material
resources.

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Mobile Military Reactors

Vaughn H. Standley, Martin D. Poon, and Joshua M. Baughman

Abstract Analysis of Correlates of War (COW) Project data reveals a quantita-

tive war-energy nexus that is intensifying. A nation’s success in war, measured in
fewer combat deaths, greater spending, and more victories, is increasingly corre-
lated with per capita energy consumption. Rising per capita energy consumption,
also evident in COW project data, warns of fourfold increase in fossil fuel consump-
tion by the largest nations as soon as 2050. Fierce contention over the availability
and pollution associated with these resources will add to the already high statistical
risk of war. The results of the study corroborate anecdotal findings that increasing
per capita energy consumption strengthens national security, but only nuclear power
achieves this objective without increasing interstate contention over fossil fuels.
Moreover, mobile reactors can simultaneously provide enhanced defense capability
abroad while improving the health of local peoples, which is difficult and riskier with
fossil fuel infrastructure. Defense applications of mobile reactors can pave the way
for small commercial reactors to improve energy security, lessen pollution, and help
keep peace worldwide.

Keywords Combat deaths · Interstate war · Mobile reactors

1 Introduction

In a sustainable world, efficiency plays an important role. However, the recent explo-
sion of a nuclear-powered cruise missile [1] is a reminder that a performance advan-
tage is more important to nations seeking readiness against threats to their national

V. H. Standley (B) · M. D. Poon · J. M. Baughman

National Defense University, 20319 Washington, DC, USA
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
M. D. Poon
e-mail: [email protected]
J. M. Baughman
e-mail: [email protected]
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 461
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_40
462 V. H. Standley et al.

security. Nuclear submarines and surface ships have been fielded for decades because
nuclear power enables continuous high-power operation without the need for contin-
uous refueling. Early development of these systems contributed greatly to the design
and development of commercial nuclear power reactors that, because of economies of
scale, evolved to become the highly efficient gigawatt-scale plants that are common
today.
From the oil embargo that triggered Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor to
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait for its oil, there is an abundance of anecdotal evidence that
energy is often a reason that nations go to war. Similarly, nations having better access
to energy resources and energy technology are better able to defend against attack.
Think of England using oil while it fought a Germany that continued to rely on coal
during WWI. The Defense Science Board observed recently that the “USA military
could become the beneficiaries of reliable, abundant, and continuous energy through
the deployment of nuclear energy power systems” [2]. Energy has been called the
dominant element of the national instruments of power [3]. However, there is a dearth
of quantitative analysis on what this means.
The aim of the present study is to apply analytics to historic war and energy
data to help quantify the benefits mobile reactors might afford the military in terms
of fewer combat and safety-related deaths, increased access to military spending,
and improved likelihood of victory. Favorable results could be used to advocate for
the military acquiring and operating small reactors, which could in-turn help with
public and industry acceptance of small reactors being used for civil commercial
power production. The approach of converting military technology to civilian use has
been used repeatedly with much success, as exemplified by first-generation civilian
reactors and in recent years by technologies such as GPS and the Internet.

2 War-energy Data

The Correlates of War (COW) Project published its first data set in 1963, improving
and adding to these datasets over the decades since. Two datasets were used in this
study: COW War Data, 1816–2007 (v4.0) [4] and National Material Capabilities
(v5.0) [5], 1816–2012.
The present study focuses on strategic war, which requires a level of resources
achievable only by states. Therefore, only COW’s interstate war dataset was used
for war statistics. From 1816 to 2007, there are 91 named interstate wars. Each of
the 91 wars is comprised of at least two states and in some cases (e.g., WWII) many
states. There is a total of 337 rows comprising the data indicating each state’s start
and end dates, number of combat deaths, attack/defend status (i.e., initiator), and
outcome (i.e., win, lose, or others such as draw or stalemate). Applying a principle
of zero-sum game theory, we treat wars as unilateral decisions [6] where each of the
337 rows of the interstate dataset represents an individual war statistic.
The National Military Capabilities (NMC) dataset provides estimates of popula-
tion, military spending, military personnel, energy consumption, and other variables
Mobile Military Reactors 463

for each year of a country in existence at one time or another from 1816 through 2012.
Our focus is on energy consumption, which COW reports for all energy resources in
units of tonnes equivalent coal (1 t equivalent coal = 3.41 × 1011 J). Combat deaths
and war start and end dates from the COW War Data are combined manually with
the data from the NMC in order to identify correlations.

3 The Intensifying War-Energy Nexus

COW data reveals that the relationship between war and energy is intensifying, as
measured by military spending, combat deaths, and military victory.
Figure 1 shows the logarithm of annual per capita military expenditures as a
function of the logarithm of per capita energy consumption (tonnes coal equivalent)
for each year for each nation. Data is colored by its apparent trend. Gray data represent
nations having low per capita military spending for a particular year. Gray points are
all those where the log of military spending is below zero. Red data represent higher
per capita military spending but low per capita energy consumption for that year.
Points are red if the log of per capita energy is less than −1 and the log of military
spending is greater than or equal to zero. Blue data represents per capita military

Fig. 1 Annual per capita military expenditures as a function of per capita energy consumption
(tonnes coal equivalent) for each year for each nation
464 V. H. Standley et al.

spending that is approximately proportional (logarithmically) to per capita energy

consumption. Blue points are above the y = 0 line and between the lines x = −
1.00 and x = 1.10. Gold data represent states with unusually high per capita energy
resources. Gold points are to the right of the line x = 1.10. The proportional data (blue)
correlates well (0.68), indicating a strong relationship between per capita military
spending and per capita energy consumption for states operating in this category.
Because per capita energy is, for the most part, increasing for each nation each year,
Fig. 1 represents the increasing importance of energy over time.
COW data reveals another quantitative war-energy nexus in that a nation’s success
in war, measured in fewer combat deaths, is related to energy consumption. The
logarithm of combat deaths per military personnel negatively correlates with the
logarithm of per capital energy consumption. This is true whether the outcome is
win or lose and regardless of which nation is the initiator.
The average log per capita energy consumption for win, lose, initiator, and non-
initiator categories are summarized in Table 1. The weighted average of the log
per capita energy for the win cases is −0.42. The weighted average of the log per
capita energy for the lose cases is −0.82. On average, those victorious in wars were
consuming about 0.4 more in log per capita energy or about 2.5 times more than
nations losing wars. Energy consumption is thus an important factor in winning wars
whether for attack or defense.

Table 1 Military and energy statistics for interstate wars between 1816 and 2007

Strategy
Initiate Non-Initiate
Win/Lose Parameter
109 wars (32%) 228 wars (68%)
Number of Wars 61 (18%) 94 (28%)
Win
155 War Dead-Energy Correlation - 0.46 -0.21
(46%)
Average Log Per capita Energy -0.56 -0.33
Number of Wars 27 (8%) 92 (27%)
Lose
119 War Dead-Energy Correlation -0.22 -0.26
(35%)
Average Log Per capita Energy -0.68 -0.86
Number of Wars 21 (6%) 42 (12%)
Other
63 War Dead-Energy Correlation Negligible Negligible
(19%)
Average Log Per capita Energy -0.02 -0.41

Total War Dead-Energy Correlation -0.25

337
(100%) Average Log Per capita Energy -0.59
Mobile Military Reactors 465

4 Energy and the Risk of War

The risk of war, which is the product of the likelihood and severity of war, is highly
statistical in nature. These statistics indicate that the risk of war is high. Rising
per capita energy consumption in large nations, also evident in COW data, warns
of fourfold increase in fossil fuel consumption by the most populous nations in just
30 years. Fierce contention over the availability of these resources and their associated
pollution will add to the already high statistical likelihood of war. Increasing per
capita energy consumption without relying on fossil fuels can reduce the likelihood
and severity of war.
The probability of war occurring, and the severity of the war are distinct, the
latter being conditional on the former. Analysis of COW data indicates that the
time between consecutive named wars is distributed according to a memoryless
exponential distribution with parameter λ = 0.5/year and the overall severity of war,
measured in combat deaths, follows a log-gamma distribution with parameters α = 9
and β = 3.9 [7]. The annual probability of war follows the Poisson distribution, also
with parameter λ = 0.5/year, because of the mathematical relationship between the
exponential and Poisson distributions. Statistics comprising log-gamma distributions
are the sum of α samples from a memoryless log-exponential distribution having
parameter β. Although the power law has been used for decades in this context, it
is invalid as a probability distribution for war because its mean and associated risk
are divergent. The annual risk of a given number of combat deaths s is the annual
probability of war multiplied by s and the severity probability evaluated at s. The
upshot is that the risk of war is high, including for extremely high numbers of combat
deaths.
Each year y of logarithmic (base 10) per capita energy consumption, log(E(y)),
through 2050, is estimated using the following form by adjusting parameters until
the curve matches COW data with high R2 :
 
log(E(y)) = log(a) 1 − 10−(y−y0 )/λ + log(E 0 ) (1)

Historic data and fit lines for a given nation each start at the point (y0 , log(E 0 )),
where λ is the rate parameter measured in years, and a is an energy scaling factor.
Eventually, log(E(y)) converges to log(E ∞ ) = a+log(E 0 ). Figure 2 reports data and
fits of the logarithm of annual per capita consumption through 2050 for the three most
populous nations: China, India, and the USA, France is included to highlight how
military conflicts are evident in per capita energy data. The USA consumption seems
to be leveling off just above log(E ∞ ) = 1.15, or E ∞ = 14 tonnes coal equivalent
per person. China’s historic data indicates it will achieve this consumption by 2050
and not long after level off at about 100 t equivalent per capita, or seven times that
of USA citizens. People of India will consume the equivalent of about a third of a
tonne of coal per person by 2050, but its energy demands and population are still
rapidly increasing and the fit suggests that it will eventually converge on a per capita
consumption of about 56, or four times that of the USA.
466 V. H. Standley et al.

1.5

1 USA: y0=1823, E0=0.031

log10(Tonnes Coal per Person)

λ=135, a=2.65, E∞=14

0.5 WWII

0 WWI

France: y0=1820, E0=0.031

-0.5 λ=155, a=2.25, E∞=56 India-Pakistan war
Korean
War India: y0=1950, E0=0.056
-1 λ=250, a=3.00, E∞=56
China: y0=1935, E0=0.031
λ=200, a=3.50, E∞=100
-1.5
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Year

Fig. 2 Past and projected energy consumption by four large nations

The population growth of each nation was estimated based on COW population
data and the result multiplied by the predicted per capita energy consumption. Energy
consumption by China and India approximately quadruple by 2050 compared to 2020
figures. However, because China’s per capita energy needs will be three times that of
India in 2050, it is China that creates the greatest challenge in terms of its demand on
fossil fuel resources and pollution output. China is unlikely to reduce its use of fossil
fuel resources significantly in the foreseeable future. The USA and other countries
can, however, reduce their reliance on fossil fuels by choosing different sources of
energy that help avoid contention with China, reducing the probability of violent
conflict.
An important measure of the severity of war is the number of combat dead.
Statistically, increasing per capita energy consumption should lead to fewer combat
deaths per correlations identified in Table 1 for both offensive and defensive nations.
The slope of the fit to the Initiator-Win data is −0.6, which means combat deaths are
reduced by about a factor of four for each ten-fold increase in energy consumption.
For example, the USA could statistically expect one-fourth the number of casualties
in a military conflict if its citizens were consuming an average of approximately 140 t
of coal per year, slightly higher than what we can expect China to be consuming after
2050.
National and international calamities are evident in the fluctuations of energy
consumption in Fig. 2. The peaks and valleys seen in the USA curve are largely due
to shifts in energy technology and market forces. The effects of war are difficult to
discern. However, the effects of war on France’s curve are much more pronounced.
Disruption to its per capita energy consumption by WWI and WWII are clear. The
Korean War and India–Pakistan War are even more prominent on curves for China
Mobile Military Reactors 467

and India. With decreasing per capita energy consumption, the effects of war are con-
sistently more marked. Higher per capita energy consumption before a war mitigates
the consequences of war.

5 The Vital Role of Mobil Military Reactors

Greater per capita energy consumption increases the likelihood of military victory
is correlated with fewer combat deaths, and higher military spending. Increasing
demand for fossil fuels by China and India will create contention for resources
that are likely to increase the possibility of war over the already large statistical
likelihood, which may be avoided by decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. Therefore,
the overall approach should be to increase the use of alternative sources of energy.
Nuclear energy is the only practical choice. Renewables such as solar or wind cannot
replace fossil fuels while at the same time enabling an increase in per capita energy
consumption.
The expeditionary nature of the military places heavy emphasis on mobility, even
with nuclear power systems. This is reflected by the fact that the USA Army oper-
ated five mobile/portable nuclear reactors from 1962 to 1977 ranging from one to
ten megawatts electric output. Except for one, all these earlier designs used highly
enriched uranium to reduce weight for mobility. To reduce proliferation concerns
and enable timely licensing, all new small reactor designs in this power range rely
on low-enriched uranium. The most recent designs are HolosGen’s Quad [8], Los
Alamos’ MegaPower [9], and Westinghouse’s eVinci [10]. MegaPower and eVinci
rely on heat pipe cooling where the Holos-Quad uses a Helium-cooled Brayton
cycle. The designs are mature and could be fielded within just a few years. The USA
Department of Defense (DOD) recently broadcasted a Request for Information (RFI)
seeking “innovative technologies and approaches” [11] for prototyping reactors. The
RFI requires that the reactors can be installed in less than 72 h, have an inherently safe
design, and create no net increase in risk to public safety by either direct radiation
from operation or contamination with breach of the primary core.
Energy systems with reserve capacity existing near and under control of the end-
user are the most robust and resilient. Mobile reactors can provide sustained higher
output power nearer to end-users for years without refueling. Mobile reactors need not
rely continuously on vulnerable fossil fuel supply infrastructure. Nuclear energy is
also not subject to fluctuating costs from changing demand or lost fossil fuel reserves
that are especially likely during a conflict. A drone attack on a Saudi Arabian oil field
in September 2019, “not only knocked out over half of the country’s production, it
also removed almost all the spare capacity available to compensate for any major
disruption in oil supplies worldwide” [12].
Whether liquid, gas, or solid, fossil fuels must be continuously processed and
pumped through pipelines or transported by rail, roadway, or sea, or are holdup in
large refineries. Pipelines transporting fossil fuels in an energy network are extremely
fragile [13]. Relative to the energy being consumed, only small amounts of fuel are
468 V. H. Standley et al.

kept in reserve near customers. Reserves largely exist upstream where the resources
are extracted. If a pipeline is damaged, the small reserves near customers are quickly
depleted and the supply chain stops until the supply infrastructure is rehabilitated.
This is not the case for nuclear power. Energy infrastructure is also increasingly
vulnerable to cyber-attack due to its growing reliance on Internet-based Industrial
Control Systems (ICS), to include Internet-of-Things (IOT) controllers used in homes
and businesses to increase energy efficiency. So serious are these threats that in
2017 the USA Congress created a new organization in the Department of Energy to
confront them [14].
The USA Army and Defense Science Board agreed that small reactors operated
by military personnel in or near a combat zone would not increase these risks [3,
15]. Nuclear power also may offer a unique advantage in repelling state and non-
state threats. “The availability of large (megawatt) amounts of power at a site could
alter this situation to the DOD’s advantage. With the development of directed energy
weapons, USA forces have the ability to use high-power lasers for defensive purposes
against long-range missile and rocket fires” [16]. Directed energy weapons have been
studied and successfully tested for decades [17]. They are not science fiction. Had
they been in place, they might have thwarted or mitigated the attack on the Saudi
refinery.
The World Health Organization estimates that 4.2 million people die each year
from exposure to air pollution [18], thousands of times greater than deaths caused by
the one-time Chernobyl accident [19]. Nuclear reactors have the smallest greenhouse
gas footprint of nearly all energy technologies, including wind and solar [20]. The
environmental impact of both the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents is
small compared to the billions of tonnes of greenhouse gasses that would have been
released had the equivalent energy been produced by plants burning fossil fuels.
Mobile nuclear reactors have an extraordinary record of safety and low-waste
output. “The Navy has deployed more than 500 nuclear reactors since 1948 and never
experienced a reactor accident” [15]. Modern mobile reactors are being designed so
they require no active control during shutdown, making them even safer. The fact
that mobile reactors are much smaller than typical commercial reactors means the
potential risks are also much smaller. Conversely, 1 in 24 fuel resupply convoys in
Afghanistan resulted in a casualty [21].
Higher per capita energy increases life expectancy, lowers infant mortality, and
extends reproductive delay [22]. These proven societal benefits, however, matter
most where per capita energy is below 0.5 (−0.3 on the log scale) where the dashed
red line meets the dashed blue line in Fig. 1. As of 2012, 36 nations fall into this
category according to COW project data, several of which have and continue to be of
strategic importance to the USA Power from mobile reactors operating inside states
with low per capita energy, on a the USA base, operated by USA military, could be
shared with the nearby populations, improving the health and safety of its citizens,
while not requiring as much electrical infrastructure as large-scale power plants.
Efficiencies realized by larger designs have succumbed to the inefficiencies asso-
ciated with custom construction, site licensing, and capital financing. Smaller but
standardized reactor designs enable the application of statistical quality control and
Mobile Military Reactors 469

10

Log10 (Tonnes Equivalent Coal per $)

1

0.1

0.01 USA
China

0.001
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year

Fig. 3 Energy intensity for the USA and China from 1816 to 2007

more systematic operator training. Energy intensity, in units of energy per dollar
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is an inverse measure of the energy efficiency of
an economy. The COW NMC dataset does not provide GDP data so instead energy
in tonnes coal equivalent per dollar of military expenditure is plotted in Fig. 3. This
intensity curve mimics that of a standard energy intensity curve for the USA except
that the peak is shifted a few decades and its rise and fall are more dramatic. China’s
intensity begins to rise again in 1967, helping to explain why its per capita energy is
now quickly rising. The data also suggests that most USA energy technology ineffi-
ciencies were eliminated during the first half of the twentieth century and continue
to improve today. Though efficient, optimized energy networks are susceptible to
cascading failure and lack resilience [13]. Resilience and efficiency are both gained
by transitioning mobile military technology to civil use whereafter it can flourish
in a competitive market environment as happened with GPS and the Internet. An
approach to begin this cycle of development for mobile nuclear reactors is via the
National Defense Authorization Act Section 804, Middle Tier Acquisition for Rapid
Prototyping and Rapid Fielding [15].

6 Conclusion

Energy is increasingly important to national security. Analysis of Correlates of War

(COW) data reveals a quantitative war-energy nexus in that a nation’s success in war,
measured in fewer combat deaths, larger military spending, and more victories, is
correlated with per capita energy consumption. Rising per capita energy consumption
in large nations, also evident in COW data, warns of fourfold increase in fossil fuel
consumption by 2050. Fierce contention over the availability and pollution associated
with these resources will add to the already high statistical likelihood of war. Results
of the study suggest that the overall approach should be to increase use of alternative
470 V. H. Standley et al.

sources of energy. Renewables such as solar or wind cannot replace fossil fuels while
at the same time enabling an increase in per capita energy consumption. Nuclear
energy can. Fielding mobile reactors could provide enhanced defense capability
and help pave the way for small commercial reactors to improve energy security
and lessen pollution worldwide. Nuclear reactors have the smallest greenhouse gas
footprint of nearly all energy technologies, including wind and solar, and new reactor
designs are safer, resistant to proliferation, and easier to finance. Oil and natural
gas must be continuously transported in large quantities, making them vulnerable
to attack and disruption. Conversely, reactors can operate for many years without
refueling. Mobile military reactors can play a vital role in national security.

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The Competitive Advantage of Additive
Manufacturing in the Naval Sector

Teresa Guarda and Maria Fernanda Augusto

Abstract 3D technology is currently used in many areas; these technologies provide

simulators, modeling, and personalization tools for printing in a totally innovative
way. For years, financial restrictions imposed on the public sector have created diffi-
culties in carrying out Navy missions, which, due to their high value and specificity,
already have, by their nature, added difficulties. Thus, the introduction of additive
manufacturing in supply chains can overcome some complications inherent in the
process of maintaining existing means. Additive manufacturing has the possibility
to revolutionize supply chains; these technologies are possible disruptors in the area
of maintenance and logistics and change the organization’s response capacity. In this
sense, the Navy can exploit this technology in order to obtain its own benefits and
improve its organization.

Keywords 3D technology · Additive manufacturing · Supply chains · Competitive

advantage

T. Guarda (B)
Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas, Salinas, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
T. Guarda · M. F. Augusto
CIST—Centro de Investigacion en Sistemas y Telecomunicaciones, Universidad Estatal Peninsula
de Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
Universidad Estatal Peninsula de Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador
T. Guarda
Algoritmi Centre, Minho University, Guimarães, Portugal
T. Guarda · M. F. Augusto
BiTrum Research Group, León, Spain

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 473
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_41
474 T. Guarda and M. F. Augusto

1 Introduction

The restrictions imposed on the Navy due to the financial crisis, which led to a
decrease in available resources (material, financial, and human), created some obsta-
cles that reduced the efficiency and effectiveness of armed forces organizations, as
is the case with the Navy, which is not unaware of this situation.
The Navy, for the fulfillment of the missions that are legally its responsibility,
must have all the necessary means ready that due to its high value and specificity, it
is often faced with the difficulty in maintaining its operationality.
Thus, it is in this context that the additive manufacture (AM) emerges, which,
although not recent, is a revolutionary technology in the way that products can be
produced, building the pieces in an additive way, layer by layer, through the use of
a 3D printer [2, 14].
The use of AM is a productive process that allows the reduction of manufacturing
times, the reduction of costs in the production of parts that already exist, or that do
not exist in the market, being a competitive advantage for the Navy.
In order to face some complications inherent to the process of maintenance of the
means, the possible introduction of AM in the supply chains may be an innovative
and sustainable aspect for the Navy.
This work is organized into five sections: The second section presents the back-
ground of additive manufacturing; third section describes AM process steps; the
fourth section analyzes the use of AM in the naval sector; finally, in the last section,
conclusions are presented.

2 Background

In 1983, Charles W. Hull invented the 3D printing or stereolithography [9]. In 1984,

three French researchers from the General Electric Company, Alain Mehute, Olivier
Witte, and Jean Claude André, filed a patent for their stereolithographic process [10].
They filed a patent for the stereolithography process three weeks before the American
Chuck Hull. The French patent was granted in January 1986. Stereolithography
(SLA) gave its name to the .STL file format [10].
Three years later, Hull co-founded 3D systems to explore solid imaging technol-
ogy, being produced the first 3D printer (SLA-1) in 1987 by 3D systems [8]. Between
1990 and 2000, other 3D printing technologies were launched, including Stratasys
FDM and 3D systems SLS. These printers were expensive and were mainly used for
industrial prototyping [8, 9].
Years later, designs based on 3D printing processes were creating the shape and
perspective for a new world and have become widely used in rapid prototyping and
direct manufacturing. The ASTM F42 committee has published a document contain-
ing standard terminology on additive manufacturing. Being 3D printing established
as an industrial manufacturing technology. In the same year, FDM patents expired,
The Competitive Advantage of Additive Manufacturing … 475

and the first low-cost desktop 3D printers were born from the RepRap project. What
previously cost $200,000 was suddenly available for less than $2000 [9, 10].
Between 2015 and 2017, adoption of 3D printing continues to grow: More than 1
million desktop 3D printers sold globally between 2015 and 2017, and sales of indus-
trial metal printers nearly doubled in 2017 compared to the previous year [2]. Deloitte
Global predicts that sales related to 3D printing by public and private companies will
top $2.7 billion in 2019 and surpass $3 billion in 2020 [14].

3 AM Processes

Additive production and traditional production are not only differentiated by their
production processes, but also in aspects of management of organizations such as
response times, and cost reduction.
Additive manufacturing or 3D printing allows create real objects from digital mod-
els, being a form of additive manufacturing technology, where a three-dimensional
model is created by successive layers of material.
The fundamental characteristics of additive manufacturing are the reduction in
the number of steps and processes in the manufacture of an object, the material
economy, and the unprecedented possibility of combining. By way of example, for the
production of a single piece of complex geometry by conventional means, it may be
necessary to employ a variety of machines, specific tools, and various manufacturing
and finishing processes to the finished product, whereas an additive manufacturing
machine can produce the piece in one step or significantly fewer steps. Since the
piece is produced by layering material layer by layer, there would be no waste of
materials.
Additive manufacturing requires three dimensions: the digital model, materials,
and the AM system (Fig. 1). The digital 3D model includes the .stl file and the
file cut into layers. This is the most used file format for 3D printing. The set of
letters STL initially appears as the result of using three of the letters of the word
stereolithography, having been given different meanings over the years.
In addition to 3D printing, the .stl format is also used by software for structural
analysis of finite elements, the so-called CAE software; this is because both for 3D
printing and in finite element analysis, what is done is to break up a 3D file into
infinitely smaller parts, the printing slices; the construction of the triangular mesh
that produces the .stl model is perfect. The process of creating the .stl file consists
of converting its outer shell into an infinite number of triangles in order to allow the
printing of the file.
Although there are more than 30 3D printing formats, the most used 3D printing
file formats are .slt, followed by .obj, which allows you to store color and texture
profiles. The great advantage of .stl is that it is a universal file format that can be read
by all 3D printers.
476 T. Guarda and M. F. Augusto

Fig. 1 Three dimensions of

additive manufacturing

The .stl file encodes the object’s surface in geometric shapes, especially triangles,
due to the fact that it is the closest geometric figure to a vector. The triangle has
fundamental properties like intensity, direction, and sense for 3D printing (Fig. 2).
The materials can be powdered metals, plastics, plaster, cement, among others,
which are the raw material to be used by the printer.
The types of filaments for 3D printing are developing and advancing along with the
advancement of 3D printing technology. The different types of filaments have specific
characteristics. The choice of material (filament) and its specific configurations can
be the main factor for the success of the project. Each application requires a different
type of material or thermoplastic, since each has different strength and durability
characteristics for each type of use.
The Competitive Advantage of Additive Manufacturing … 477

Fig. 2 STL universal format

Let us now specify some of these materials: [1] Filament ABS Premium +; [2]
PLA filament; [3] Flexible or Flex filament; [4] PETG XT filament; and [5] Filament
Tritan HT.
(1) The ABS filament is derived from petroleum and have high strength and dura-
bility. They are normally used for the production of parts that tend to suffer
high mechanical loads and for industrial prototyping because they can with-
stand temperatures up to 85 °C. It is also ideal when finishing after 3D printing
is required as the material has low surface hardness. It is capable of achieving
high speeds in printing, as it has high fluidity in its composition and can be
considered the most used polymer in 3D printers.
(2) PLA filament is a great material among the types of filaments available because
of one of its characteristics—it is biodegradable and of plant origin. It does not
require heating the table for printing, and it does not need high temperatures
for extrusion. Another important point that is aligned with the characteristic of
being biodegradable is the fact that it does not emit gases that are harmful to
health. It is indicated for printing large parts that do not need finishing after
printing.
(3) Flexible or Flex filament—unlike other types of filaments, this material aims to
bring malleability and flexibility to parts that require some movement in their
use. This type of filament is not recommended for use in all printers and requires
a certain amount of care in terms of materials and equipment. Because of this, it
is indicated for advanced users who already have certain knowledge in the area.
(4) The PETG XT Filament—it is considered a noble material for 3D printing
due to its characteristics of high mechanical, chemical, and high-temperature
resistance. In addition, it also offers high ease for 3D printing. PETG XT filament
can be used in open or closed printers, with a heated or unheated table and
does not present an odor during its processing. It is generally used for the
manufacture of covers or cases due to its resistance and durability and has an
excellent adhesion between the filament layers.
(5) Tritan HT Filament is the most resistant and hard filament that was designed for
use in 3D printers. It is a durable copolyester and is resistant to high temperatures
478 T. Guarda and M. F. Augusto

Lowest costs

Improved projects

Product customization

Sustainability

New business models

Fig. 3 Additive manufacturing benefits

(100 °C), pressure and alkaline, acidic and water solutions. Another important
point is its use in advanced 3D printing projects, and it has excellent adhesion
between layers and resistance to traction. It is much more durable and flexible
than PLA and ABS and has a great adhesion to the table, which implies the use
of a table heated around 110 °C.
The correct choice among the different types of filaments available on the market
is extremely important to guarantee the quality of the printed object and the quality
of the final product. Strictly complying with the indications related to 3D printer, the
success of the application is guaranteed.
There are several benefits of adopting this technology, including the lowest costs;
improved projects; product customization; sustainability; and the creation of new
business models [17] (Fig. 3).
Since the process is limited to adding material, there is no need to remove material
for concluding, there will be no need to store the manufactured parts, there is only
the need to deliver the material, and the parts are produced on or near the site, thereby
reducing costs [7].
The process operates independently of complexity, facilitating light structures,
combining several parts in one, allowing the improvement of projects. All types of
shapes can be made with one machine.
As the increase in complexity does not imply an increase in cost, aesthetic
improvement does not directly require extra work, as well as a change in design,
thus facilitating product customization.
The reduction of weight and use of material generates less waste and energy
consumption, reinforcing the sustainability of the projects [4].
The need arises for the creation of new business models, due to rapid prototyping,
the reduction of operating costs, the cost of production per unit, regardless of the
number of units produced and the decrease in delivery time [3].
The Competitive Advantage of Additive Manufacturing … 479

4 The Use of AM in the Naval Sector

Currently, with regard to 3D printing, it is necessary to understand how much your

market is worth, where your development is located, and to clarify some examples
in order to understand what some of its practical uses are today. The 3D printing
market is currently estimated at $13 billion and is expected to increase to 21 billion
in 2020. In 2015, 3D printing only represented 0.04% of the global market, with the
manufacture of prototypes was the biggest use [15].
The 3D printing market is growing rapidly, and they are attentive, discovering
the benefits of innovative manufacturing, notably aerospace, medical, automotive,
and consumer/electronic products, which represent 67% of the industries that use
3D printing [16]. Despite being apparently simple but revolutionary technology, the
use of this new manufacturing method makes it possible to decentralize production,
bringing consumption centers closer to production centers, allowing the reduction of
costs related to the supply chain. This technology led to a change in the relationship
between the cost and complexity of the piece, and 3D printing allows the manufacture
of more complex objects without increasing the cost per unit. This new paradigm
may allow the manufacture of structures whose more complex shape is more efficient
but are not produced because they are economically unviable [11].
Despite all the advantages it offers, 3D printing has been little explored by the
sectors that make up the naval market, which can keep the sector away from the solu-
tions that the present and future application of this technology can offer. Therefore,
it can be vital to seek applications of this technology in the sector [1].
With the introduction of 3D printing in 2014 in the American Navy, an opening in
the naval sector was created for the use of additive production on board, and Maersk,
the market leader carrier with around 500 container ships, introduced printers in its
fleet. And in 2014, the printers were only made of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
(ABS), but the carrier, together with other companies such as DNV GL, MAN Diesel
& Turbo, and Create it REAL, started a project for the use of 3D printers on ships and
in oil platforms in order to remove the need to have too many spares on board, thereby
reducing the time needed to repair, as well as the costs associated with inventory and
logistical costs to put a spare on board [6].
The American Navy, in line with the adoption of 3D printing in its processes,
has the PTF program, whose objective is to introduce additive production in order
to develop processes for the construction, qualification, delivery of parts, as well as
the training of personnel for using 3D printers. In October 2016, the American Navy
had almost 90 printers placed on 22 bases. The PTF program aims to reduce the
waiting times needed to obtain a part through normal supply chains. These actions
are highly relevant due to the impact that the insufficient components necessary for
maintenance can have on the threat of the normal functioning of the onboard systems
and, possibly, on the compromise of the success of the ships’ mission [12].
In 2017, the Department of the Navy created the Department of the Navy Addictive
Manufacturing Plan V2.0, which presents two visions: increasing ship readiness and
sustainability; and the increase in the combat capacity of the media [5].
480 T. Guarda and M. F. Augusto

The US Navy uses 3D printing essentially in four aspects, all of which are intercon-
nected: in reducing supply chain costs; the ability to deal with systems obsolescence;
increasing the capacity of maintenance, repair, and operations; and creating new,
more efficient parts. These aspects intrinsically depend on each other, all of which
simultaneously contribute to the fulfillment of the mission, and their maximization
allows the American Navy to increase its performance in terms of the fulfillment of
the missions, assigning new capabilities to its means [5, 12].

5 Conclusions

Additive manufacturing also known as 3D printing can bring disruptions to organiza-

tions, changing business models and organizational structures. Although its impact
and development have not yet reached its maturity state, today there are already
several examples of organizations that achieve competitive advantage with this tech-
nology. AM is considered one of the most advanced technologies that will enter the
fields of economics.
There are many different types of 3D printers capable of printing on a wide range
of materials. In this way, printers can be used to create solutions in various fields of
engineering including the naval sector.
Nowadays, the application of this technology in the naval sector is still limited, but
exploring the solutions provided by it can be interesting for the sector. 3D printing can
be a strong ally in the manufacture of prototypes, boat hulls, or for the manufacture
of more efficient parts.
3D printing is increasingly relevant in several sectors of the economy, includ-
ing maritime construction. The use of this technology radically changes supply
chains, product designs, and the way of production in various sectors. 3D printing is
considered one of the technologies that will change naval architecture.
The Navy needs to be attentive because these technologies are possible disruptors
in the area of maintenance and logistics and change the organization’s response
capacity, contributing to a ready and prestigious Navy.

References

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tions (with Companion Media Pack) of Rapid Prototyping Fourth Edition. World Scientific
Publishing Company (2014)
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Systems, pp. 129–136. Springer, Cham (2015)
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Navy Enlisted Classification for the Machinery Repairman to enable efficient use of Am and
Mass Adoption of the Technology. Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States (2019)
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of Varna (2016)
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Strategy, Geopolitics and Oceanopolitics
Ocean Policy of the UNCLOS in Ecuador
Based on New Geodynamic
and Geochronological Evidences

Theofilos Toulkeridis, Yamirka Rojas-Agramonte, and Gustavo Paz Noboa

Abstract All countries adjacent to the sea or ocean have the opportunity to extent
their national territory toward their own islands by obtaining scientific results within
a time period of ten years while applying the conditions of the United Nations Con-
vention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS/CONVEMAR), which indicates a 12-mile
territorial sea and is complemented by an exclusive economic zone that reaches
200 miles. Such purpose of this given ocean policy has been also applied by the
Ecuadorian government in 2012. However, since without a scientific strategy focused
on solving this problem, the results obtained would be the same to those already
known in the academic world for decades. Therefore, we claimed to resolve such
information impasse, by applying zircon geochronology in volcanic rocks and sam-
ples of the Galapagos Islands. With the discovery of zircons and the corresponding
old ages proving continental origin, we have been able to demonstrate the belonging
of the Galapagos Islands and its derivative then the Carnegie Crest to the continental
(mainland) Ecuador and the South American Continent. This will allow to be able
to claim the corresponding extension of Ecuador’s continental platform toward its
Galapagos Islands, triplicating the national territory extension.

Keywords UNCLOS/CONVEMAR · Ocean policy · Zircon dating

T. Toulkeridis (B) · Y. Rojas-Agramonte

Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
Y. Rojas-Agramonte
Johannes Gutenberg Universität, Mainz, Germany
G. P. Noboa
Academia de Defensa Militar Conjunta, Sangolquí, Ecuador

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 485
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_42
486 T. Toulkeridis et al.

1 Introduction

Over the years, Ecuador’s ocean policy, especially on the delimitation of its territorial
sea and the use of its resources, has evolved. Ecuador has modified its international
maritime behavior many times, often influenced by the international doctrinal trend
of the time [1]. The Ecuadorian territorial sea has its legal basis in the Declaration
of Santiago of 1952, in which Chile, Peru and Ecuador proclaimed sovereignty up
to a distance of 200 miles. This occurred in addition to a joint international policy
conduct, which proclaimed to the world the defense of wealth of its coastal areas,
since many of its species were at risk of becoming extinct due to the indiscriminate
exploitation of the great powers followed by Japan and Russia [2]. Therefore, all
resources, including bio-aquatic, soil and subsoil resources, belong to the coastal
State up to a limit of 200 miles and must be protected and regulated in order to
obtain a greater advantage in the best use. With the Declaration of Santiago, the
three mile theory loses its validity and in turn generates a rejection of the great
maritime powers that oppose the position of the three countries.
Article 609 of the current Civil Code mentions: “The adjacent sea up to a dis-
tance of 200 nautical miles measured from the most salient points of the continental
coast, with Ecuadorian relationship and from the most extreme islands of the Colon
Archipelago, and from the points of the lowest tide, according to the baseline that will
be indicated by executive decree, is territorial sea and national domain.” This article
is in contradiction with Article 3 of United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS), which indicates a 12-mile territorial sea and is complemented by an
exclusive economic zone that reaches 200 miles according to Article 57. Therefore,
it is necessary to review the current Ecuadorian legal regulations, to adapt it to what
is established by the UNCLOS [3].
The Ecuadorian territorial sea was constituted by two parts: a strip that extends
up to 200 miles, from the most protruding part along the continental coast and
a polygon that surrounds the Galapagos Islands, up to 200 miles off the coast of
the more extensive islands. The total area of the territorial sea was 1006.826 Km2 ,
of which 189.434 correspond to the continental territorial sea and 817.392 to the
insular territorial sea. The limits of the maritime territory included the seabed of
Ecuador, established through agreements with Colombia, Peru and Costa Rica [4].
According to Article 628 of the Civil Code, Ecuador maintained a 200-mile territorial
sea measured from the system of straight baselines published in the Official Registry
265 in June 13, 1971.
As one of the fundamental objectives of this research has been to demonstrate
the geodynamic continuation of the Ecuadorian continental shelf in the Galapagos
Archipelago. This intention is due to the fact that, as previously mentioned, Ecuador
needs evidence of the growth of its continental shelf in the Galapagos. This geological
continuation may be verified through the study of inherited zircons throughout the
trajectory of volcanism from the Galapagos to the mainland. Inherited, xenocristic
zircons are those that have an age of crystallization older than the age of the mother
rock. The problem of the inheritance of zircons is not yet solved and has not been
Ocean Policy of the UNCLOS in Ecuador Based on New … 487

seriously addressed despite its considerable implications for the evolution of the crust
and the geodynamics of the mantle. Therefore, trying to respond to this phenomenon
using rocks derived directly from the mantle as in the Galapagos archipelago and the
Carnegie Ridge is the objective of this current study.

2 Problems in the Incorporation

The incorporation of the territorial sea into the heritage of the coastal States is of
unquestionable importance, since in addition to constituting a protection zone it
incorporates to the national goods an immense reserve of food products and mineral
resources necessary for future development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a
long-term conservation strategy for maritime resources, by creating principles and
norms that benefit coastal countries. Furthermore, based on Article 76 of the law
of the sea, it involves considering geological arguments to extend the Galapagos
platform beyond 200 miles [5].
Ecuador became part of the Convention of the Sea since October 24, 2012, his-
torical adhesion that allows the Ecuadorian State to be part of the constitution of
the oceans, through which it obtains enormous benefits such as the international
recognition of the rights of sovereignty and jurisdiction over water, soil and subsoil
resources up to 200 miles [6]. The possibility of extending sovereignty rights over the
Ecuadorian submarine platform, beyond 200 miles, will be realized through techni-
cal and scientific studies in the Galapagos sector. For which, Senplades approved the
project “Delimitation of the Marine Spaces of Ecuador,” in accordance with the new
Convention of the Sea (UNCLOS) project led by the Inter-Institutional Committee
of the Sea and the Technical Secretariat of the Sea [6].
For Ecuador, accession to the Convention implies incorporating into a universal
legal regime, which guarantees the protection and effective exercise of their rights
of sovereignty and jurisdiction over said maritime spaces, as well as the natural
resources contained in the sea (Fig. 1). Once the UNCLOS will be approved, as
its under request, its maritime spaces may exceed 1,300,000 km2 , adding almost
300,000 km2 of additional continental shelf [7].
The UNCLOS recognizes the continental shelf adjacent to the continental territory
and the extended one of the Galapagos Islands. The approval allows full exercise of
control to regulate fishing in that area by foreign vessels that traditionally practice
high-risk work for several species of the rich Ecuadorian marine fauna [8]. It was
mentioned in the SENPLADES event of December 2013 that this project will be
executed from 2014 with scientific staff of several national and international research
institutions from friendly countries, as well as the support of the Division of Ocean
Affairs and Rights of the Sea of the United Nationals. It was stated that for the
study the Orion ship of the Navy of Ecuador and other foreign research platforms
will be used, studies of multi-beam bathymetry, geophysics and marine geology will
be used, which will allow to demonstrate that the platform extends, more than 200
miles will also determine the location of the foot of the continental slope and draw
488 T. Toulkeridis et al.

Fig. 1 Idea, purpose and extension of the UNCLOS in Ecuador [7]

the outer limits, in accordance with Article 76 and the guidelines developed by the
United Nations Continental Platform Boundary Commission [6].
Two fifty million dollars have been allocated as a budget for ten years (2012–
2021) in order to try to verify the extension of the Galapagos Platform as well as
the continental shelf. Unfortunately, without a scientific strategy focused on solving
this problem, the results obtained will be the same as those already known in the
academic world for decades. Unfortunately, there will be no scientific news, nothing
new or relevant to Ecuador and its purpose to extent its boundaries. The intended
approaches will only improve aspects in a more detailed scale of that what is already
known:
• The Galapagos Platform will be defined as it is today and will remain as volcanic
origin of the Ocean due to its geotectonic origin as a hot spot.
• The continental shelf will not extend beyond what is known, that is to the limit of
the Ecuadorian Trench.
• The Carnegie Crest will continue to be part of the extension of the Galapagos hot
spot and therefore an extremely oceanic origin.
All this is already known in Ecuador as well as outside the country and therefore
nothing will change for Ecuador, and therefore, its territorial and oceanic limits will
not increase after the delivery of all data to the United Nations in the year 2021 or
2022. Therefore, a new insight is needed to be taken into consideration.
Ocean Policy of the UNCLOS in Ecuador Based on New … 489

3 The Current Geodynamic Situation of Ecuador

The continental volcanoes as well as those of the volcanic islands (e.g., Galapagos)
result from the subduction and volcanism of a hot spot, respectively [9, 10]. In the
eastern Pacific Ocean, there are two different boundaries of divergent plates: the
East Pacific Rise and the Galapagos Spreading Center, in which new oceanic crust
is constantly being created [11]. In these areas, three characteristic oceanic crusts
originate, being the Pacific Plate, the Cocos Plate and the Nazca Plate, which drift
away from each other. At the same time that these plates move away from each other,
the Nazca plate converges to the east and collides, creating a subduction zone, with
the coast of the South American continent (Fig. 2). The South American continent
itself is composed of two different continental plates, being the Caribbean and the
South American, which do not move to or move away from each other. They touch
each other and move in opposite directions along the third type of plate boundaries.
This transcurrent fault or shear along the course, which extends from the Gulf of
Guayaquil to Venezuela, is known as the Guayaquil-Caracas mega-fault (Fig. 2) and
is responsible for several extremely destructive earthquakes along its extension [12,
13].

Fig. 2 Current geodynamic situation of Ecuador and its Galapagos Islands [14]
490 T. Toulkeridis et al.

Along the coast of Ecuador, there are several pieces of accreted microplates, or
terrains, that constitute remnants of the upper part of the old Galapagos Islands,
which formed an already extinct submarine volcanic chain called the Carnegie ridge
(Fig. 2). The current Galapagos Islands appear above the Nazca Plate that is 250 km
south of the west-east trending of the Galapagos Spreading Center and about 1000 km
west of the Continental (mainland) Ecuador. With an area of less than 45,000 km2 ,
the Galapagos Islands represent one of the most active volcanic regions in the world,
as a result, according to a variety of studies, of an apparent upper mantle plume
under the region, called hot spot, although there are other theories about it. The
mantle plume represents columns of molten rock that ascend about 2900 km from
the core–mantle boundary, in the depths of the Earth to the upper mantle, as a result
of an upward movement, which pushes up the lithosphere that covers it, thus creating
an abnormally superficial region around the islands called the Galapagos Platform,
which most likely represents a basalt flood. The same hot spot remains fixed in
relation to the lithospheric plate that moves above. When the hot spot crosses the
lithospheric plate, it provides magma to the newly formed volcanoes.
The magma delivery process in the Galapagos hot spot has existed for more
than 90 million years (Ma), and during this same period of time, the lithospheric
layer has moved thousands of kilometers, taking with it the volcanoes generated in
hot spots [15]. As these volcanoes are removed from their source of magma, they
become extinct. Two aseismic volcanic ridges, the one that moves to the northeast,
called Cocos Ridge, and the one that moves to the east called Carnegie Ridge, and the
submarine mountain ranges associated with the Cocos and Nazca plates, respectively,
agree with the theory of the hot spot of Galapagos.
These extinct volcanic underwater mountain ranges, the result of the magma
cooling/contracting reactions, sank slowly below the sea surface, due to the lack of
magma delivery, lithospheric movements and strong erosion processes. Therefore,
the age of the oldest volcanism of the islands increases toward the East, because
the Nazca plate moves in this direction, moving away from the hot spot that remains
fixed. Over time, these volcanic underwater mountain ranges and several microplates
are added to the South American continent [16].
However, based on a new theory of the origin of hot spots, it has been proposed
that a hot spot rises due to subducted oceanic crust may does not melt completely
at subduction zones. This so far at a first step nonmelted part turns into a loop and
sinks either at the Earth’s upper/lower mantle boundary or even to the lower mantle
outer core boundary at 2900 km depth and after a certain residence time becomes
in a way “recycled,” and because of this “recycling” process, it becomes lighter and
therefore less dense, which leads this material to rise up and form a hot spot (Fig. 3).
This theory called the “cemetery of the continents” has been the base of our
assumption that may extremely stable minerals like zircons, may have been involved
from the Ecuadorian continental area and may have survived the “recycling” process
toward the Galapagos Islands (Fig. 3). This recycling process may be explained in
eight steps: (1) An oceanic plate gets into subduction. (2) Not all oceanic plates are
used in formation of volcanoes or in re-melting in the upper mantle. The oceanic
plate sinks toward the outer core. (3) Once reached there, it remains at this heat
Ocean Policy of the UNCLOS in Ecuador Based on New … 491

Fig. 3 Theory of the origin of a hot spot named the “cemetery of the continents”

boundary for a long time. (4) A certain separation of heavy elements such as iron
starts to happen due to the fact that the sunken plate got cooked at the core–mantle
boundary. (5) The iron and other heavy elements got separated from the “dead” plate
and got accumulated at the core–mantle boundary. (6) The now lighter or less dense
upheated residual material of the previous dead plate starts uprising. (7) The uprise
forms a heat column, fixed to its roots. This hot spot is hotter than the environment it
crosses through. (8) Once reaching the surface while crossing in this case, an oceanic
plate is supplies new formed volcanoes with upcoming magma [17].

4 Methodology

Based on an Ecuadorian State project called PROMETEO entitled “Study of the

growth of the Ecuadorian continental shelf through the study of inherited zircons in
the lithospheric mantle (Floreana Islands, San Cristobal), underwater ridge (Carnegie
Crest) and continent (Interandean and Cordillera Real Volcanic Mountain Range)”
we have tried to give an answer to the previously described problem.
492 T. Toulkeridis et al.

The problem of zircon inheritances is easily solved in cases of magmatic rocks that
(a) were formed as a result of the partial melting of igneous and meta-sedimentary
rocks and/or (b) intruded an ancient basement (e.g., Mauritius, Indian Ocean; East
Java, Indonesia; Lachlan folded belt, SE of Australia) [18–20]. In these cases, radio-
genic and stable isotopes of the mother rock, along with inheritance data, indicate that
ancient continental crust or sediments were significantly involved in the evolution
and genesis of magma. On the contrary, numerous discoveries of zircons inherited
in igneous and volcanic rocks of intra-oceanic island arches, supra-subduction litho-
sphere (ophiolites) and mid-ocean ridges (Atlantic Ocean) challenge our vision of the
formation of rocks derived from the mantle. In these areas, the fundamental question
concerns the source of inherited zircons. They cannot come from an ancient conti-
nental crust because, in general, it does not exist in the magma formation region, nor
in the region through which magma ascends to a shallower level of location, while
chemistry in total rock indicates a formation directly from the mantle.
For this study, we are recovering exposed rock zircons like washing with sand
the beaches of sand that are derived from mafic and ultramafic rocks as well as
parent rocks themselves. In this way, we will be able to locate areas that contain
zircons to later be able to sample the rocks. Similar studies have already been done
on the island of Grenada in the Lesser Antilles [21]. Additionally, we want to trace
the trajectory of these zircons in the Carnegie Crest, as in some muted volcanoes
in the Interandean and Cordillera Real Volcanic Mountain Range, as in the El Oro
Metamorphic Complex where we have evidence of the existence of such zircons
[22].
In this way, we have visited the Galapagos Islands, and there we have taken
samples of rocks such as beach sands. We have also taken samples of volcanic rocks
in the Andean part of Ecuador for reference. With the Galapagos samples, we have
tried first to find out if they contain zircons at all.

5 Results and Discussion

Taking into consideration the aforementioned, our goal represents a new approach
that complements other research projects in the world, especially those that seek a
link between the evolution of the mantle and the crust. Understanding this process
will also have a significant influence on the models on the recycling of the continental
crust in the mantle. The results obtained will also have a great impact on geosciences
and will represent a contribution to research in the field of geochronology and isotopic
geology. The mineral zircon is very robust and resists the passage through a variety
of geological processes. Zircons are usually not found in hot spots, since the volcanic
rocks that are found are mafic (basalts) and, they should not contain this mineral or
in an extremely low proportion. However, we have found zircons in several samples
of beaches, where the eroded material of the different rocks of the islands is directed
and also in rock samples.
Ocean Policy of the UNCLOS in Ecuador Based on New … 493

Zircons were encountered on virtually every island we have sampled (Figs. 4,

5 and 6). Only the fact of finding zircons is already sensational, because in sites
of identical geotectonic environments such as Hawaii this mineral has not yet been
found. The dates made demonstrated the presence of old zircons from the continent,
proving the Theory of the Cemetery of Continents and therefore that the hot spots
contain a continental component. This discovery is so far, unique in the world.

Fig. 4 Young zircons of beach samples of Floreana Island, reflecting ages of Islands volcanoes

Fig. 5 Geochronological data of zircons of beaches of the Santa Cruz Island, with old ages
494 T. Toulkeridis et al.

Fig. 6 Geochnological ages

of zircons of rock samples of
Santa Cruz Island

6 Conclusions

With the discovery of zircons and the corresponding old ages proving continental
origin, we have been able to demonstrate the belonging of the Galapagos Islands and
its derivative then the Carnegie Crest to the continental (mainland) Ecuador and the
South American Continent.
Such scientific breakthrough will allow Ecuador to claim the territory between the
continental mainland and the thousand kilometer away situated Galapagos Islands,
triplicating its territorial extension.

References

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Geopolitical Perspective on the Sea: Key
Highlights from the Past
and for the Future
Aneta Kazanecka , Wojciech Kazanecki , Joao Reis ,
and Marta Nowakowska

Abstract For centuries, Sea has played an important role in geopolitical thought
and geopolitical analyses. The dichotomy between Land and Sea has been explored
since ancient times and received seep attention from thinkers like Alexander Dugin.
Since the end of the nineteenth century, the attention of researchers like A. T. Mahan
and H. J. Mackinder, followed by German and Soviet traditions, were adopting a
holistic perspective on Sea while retaining a national point of view. Twenty-first-
century outlook needs to take into attention the need for dynamic instead of static
perception of Sea connecting it with multidimensional aspects of maritime outlook.
Security and socio-economic considerations need to be treated as a complex matrix
for developing broad view of the Sea to better understand and plan for behavior of
states and other geopolitical actors.

Keywords Geopolitics · Geopolitical narratives · Maritime power · Sea

1 Introduction

In the beginning, a few disclaimers should be made. First, the paper presents the
perspective of classic geopolitical outlooks on the Sea—to showcase the role they

A. Kazanecka (B) · M. Nowakowska

Military Academy of Land Forces, 51-147 Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
M. Nowakowska
e-mail: [email protected]
W. Kazanecki
Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-901 Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: [email protected]
J. Reis
CINAMIL/CISD, Military Academy, Lisbon, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 497
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_43
498 A. Kazanecka et al.

played in shaping the mindsets of decision-makers and coining the popular narra-
tives for societies. To understand that, it leans to critical geopolitics, so writings
of Gerald Toal, Klaus Dodds, John Agnew, and others—to understand the classic
geopolitics outlook, that has close references to (neo-)realist perspective on Interna-
tional Relations (IR). Second, it refers to some of the classical traditions and presents
the importance of Sea in Geopolitics referring to “classics”, like Sir Halford John
Mackinder or Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan. Third, the observations—due to the
scope of this paper—do not attempt to come up with universal laws, yet they might
be treated as an addition to existing understanding of the maritime dimension of
power in geopolitics.
In the current literature of the subject, there are only several relevant papers
to consider when thinking about maritime security from geopolitical perspective,
the most important ones are published in Marine Policy journal (see: [1–4]). For
example, Germond [1] highlighted the importance of “geopolitical dimension” into
a discussion on maritime security, yet his focus was on a contemporary view (so,
without the historical background) and NATO and EU recent strategic documents.
Looking more broadly, Krell [5] undertook recently at an attempt to present a holistic
view of the Sea, including the reflection (or meditation, to refer to his own words)
on why humankind is so attached to the Sea. Our contribution to existing literature
is twofold. First, we bring examples from history (for example, the Soviet Union
perspective). Second, we add non-Anglo-Saxon references—from France, China,
Russia.
This paper begins with a simple remark, which does seem obvious: location mat-
ters. Whether geopolitical agency (in modern times associated with national state)
is landlocked or with access to sea, or whether we refer to an island, a perspective
on space—both within your closer neighborhood or beyond it—will differ and—as
a result—will shape thinking about geography, policymaking, diplomacy, etc. More
to that, historical perspective plays a role there, connected with established views
on space (including Sea) of a given society. Such views are mainly established and
promoted by that society elites and the storytellers that are making the dominant
perspective regarding location, which is difficult to change in public debate. Classic
example is the “curse” of Poland’s location between Russia and Germany. The key
finding of this paper is that Sea dimension has played and will continue to play an
important role in geopolitical narratives. Sea forms a geopolitical “state of mind”
and reference for states and empires, as well as for thinkers attempting to understand
and explain the realm of IR. It seems even that in geopolitics the role of Sea is much
more underlined and appreciated than in traditional IR.
The question arises here, what is the relationship between geopolitics and IR the-
ory? Are they synonymous, is one part of the other, are they separate with some/great
degree of overlap? Intuitively it seems that the political realism and classic geopol-
itics have lots in common: state-centrist perspective, quest for power—to name the
first associations. Critical geopolitics and popular geopolitics seem close to social
constructivism. At the same time, geopolitics and IR do have a strong feeling of
being separate from one another, and not being part of the other. While we would
Geopolitical Perspective on the Sea: Key Highlights … 499

not attempt here to make any decisive statement [as the discussion on the relation-
ship between IR and geopolitics (and political geography) is ongoing], it should be
pointed that there are enough similarities to treat geopolitical perspective as part of IR
toolbox to understand the world, also from a maritime security perspective. Within
geopolitics, we can generally apply the notion of geopolitical codes, as introduced by
Flint [6]. He describes it as a way in which a country defines itself versus the world.
According to him, there are five main calculations that define a country’s geopolitical
code. They are as follows:
• Who are our current and potential allies?
• Who are our current and potential enemies?
• How can we maintain our allies and nurture potential allies?
• How can we counter our current enemies and emerging threats?
• How do we justify the four calculations above to our public, and to the global
community? [6, p. 62]
Sea plays an important/decisive role in defining geopolitical code for a range of
countries such code was existing in Great Britain at the end of nineteenth century,
when Sir Halford John Mackinder was preparing foundations for his view of the
world. Such code was created when Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, whose writings
and activity was influencing the political decisions of US presidents and beyond (see:
[6], see also below). But also, in popular geopolitics, the attempt to present a view
on a country using Sea–Land dimension is existing, as visible, e.g., in contemporary
French book thought as an introduction to basic geopolitical concepts (see Fig. 1,
Chap. 21 of the book is titled “France Between Continent and Ocean”).

2 Sea Versus Land: Classic Geopolitical Dichotomy as Vital

Element of (Classic) Geopolitical Narrative

What is important to notice, is that from the early writings, dating to ancient Greece,
the division between (geopolitical) power based on Sea and based on Land was seen
as a distinguishing factor for thinkers and observers of political competition between
Sparta (Land-centered power) and Athens (Sea-based power). The conflict that began
in 435 BC and is known as “Peloponnesian War” led to the decline of Athens as a
power, and overall meant a breaking point in the supremacy of the Hellenic world
[7]. What is worth mentioning is the fact that difference in foundations (maritime or
landlocked) was also underlined in differences between the two nations with regards
to their leading values and organization of society. This Sea–Land division is further
expanded and taken to the extreme by current Russian thinker Aleksandr Dugin,
who uses it as “geopolitical paradigm of history” and using reductionist approach
brings all features of the world complexity into binary view of opposing geopolitical
spheres:
Sea (Thalassocracy), being synonymous to the West
500 A. Kazanecka et al.

Fig. 1 Part of a book (La Géopolitique pour les nuls) presenting a world view from French
perspective. Source Author’s visit in France, FNAC bookstore, March 2018

Land (Tellurocracy), synonymous to the East.

Dugin adds to the Sea also the idea of Capital and to the Land the idea of Labor,
expanding this geographical and civilizational division with economic angle [8,
p. 25]. He states, “The dialectic of geopolitics is based on dynamic struggle Sea
and Land” (p. 26). He characterizes it by the following, opposite pairs, as outlined
in Table 1.
So, as seen above, Sea plays an important role in formulating a world view based
on the ongoing Thalassocracy—Tellurocracy conflict. Whether we believe it is right
or not, it should be nonetheless acknowledged that this (over simplistic) view serves
Geopolitical Perspective on the Sea: Key Highlights … 501

Table 1 Sea–Land opposing

Land (the East) Sea (the West)
features according to A.
Dugin—adopted from [8], Hierarchy Chaos
p. 27 Order Dissolution
Male principle Female principle
Tradition Contemporality

as an easy recipe to explain and give meaning to the world events to a large part
of (especially, but not exclusively) Russian elite and society. Dugin is constantly
referring to the perspective of Sir Halford John Mackinder who is his famous speech
in 1904 underlined that “The revolution commenced by the great mariners of the
Columbian generation endowed Christendom with the widest possibility of power,
short of winged mobility. The one and continuous ocean enveloping the divided
and insular lands is, of course, the geographical condition of ultimate unity in the
command of the sea (…)” [9, p. 432]. This sea–land competition for power is—taken
to extreme meaning by Dugin—the backbone of the civilizational world division,
where powers based on Land must actively act against the aggressive activities of the
Sea-based powers (previously led by Great Britain, currently by the USA). And the
fact, that various strategic thinkers, like Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, did focus on
the meaning of naval strategy when presenting ideas for their nation’s greatness at
the end of nineteenth century, do support that reasoning.
When thinking of a modern state with imperial perspective based on Sea power,
British Imperium is probably the first association, cultivated with popular culture
and images. Located in the western part of Europe, Britain has been an island with
a global perspective due to its sea orientation. And until the late nineteenth century,
its dominance over the seas made it a leading global player, which combined with
their highly industrialized and trade-oriented economy, liberal ideology and boom-
ing population, created a highly favorable situation. However, at the beginning of
twentieth-century geographers, among them Sir Halford John Mackinder, were con-
cerned with the rise in power land-based (geopolitical) entities that could question
the Sea-based dominance of Great Britain.
A. T. Mahan was an influential author at the end of the nineteenth century, focusing
on the role of Sea in the development of states and empires. His publication, “The
Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660–1783” [10], issued in 1890,1 provided a
broad analysis of reasons why naval supremacy was a key to achieving success in IR
for states. Sea—we could say—is a precondition for greatness. Mahan was also an
advocate of the Panama Canal, which helped overcome the challenge of moving the
US Navy between the oceans.
Following the growth of the United States of America in the late nineteenth cen-
tury, Sea became a growing point of reference for the elites ruling in Washington.
Fueled by ideas of Mahan (see above) key decision-makers, like presidents William

1 We have used e-text via https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Influence_of_Sea_Power_upon_

History (provided by Project Gutenberg, which we were not able to access directly).
502 A. Kazanecka et al.

McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt, made decisions to adopt a global perspective,

which meant that the US will take actions to expand using sea as a mean to con-
nect with the world for trade. With trade came also the need to preserve security,
which meant providing control over the sea routes, making sure that the key strate-
gic locations will be “free”, i.e. will not be a subject to any other power than the
US. Gradually this strategy led to Washington military omnipresence in the world,
which—according to some sources—is the largest in history, reaching 40% nations
[11]. This presence is heavily Sea-based and depends on US military supremacy
overseas. The question remains, whether this will continue in the current century?
But not only Anglo-Saxon thinkers were looking at Sea as an element of their early
geopolitical (state-oriented) perspective. In Germany, works of Mahan were included
in the curriculum for future officers (as they were in Japan). Also, in Nazi Germany,
within a few years that followed the end of World War I, Sea was studied with great
attention as an area of (world) power. The most notable example is a 1937 book
by Karl Haushofer (see Fig. 2 for cover image), titled “Weltmeere und Weltmächte”
(Oceans and World Powers) [12]. In this book, Haushofer takes an attempt to describe
the role of Sea in the development of human history. Such views helped in shaping
the perspective of a need for Germany to “break free” from Anglo-Saxon dominance
and enable The Reich to be dominant on the mass land of Eurasia.
China is the opposite case of an empire which—despite the ability to conquest
and “own” seas earlier that the rest of the world—took a decision to step back in the
fifteenth century. Admiral Zheng He, who was at a time leading the largest fleet on
the planet, was forced in 1433 to destroy all the ships [13]. China—Middle Empire—
turned its back to the Sea for more than 500 hundred years. Only in recent years, it is
building its military capabilities (e.g. by building ships and military bases) to project
power on the Sea, worrying strategic thinkers of the West and neighboring countries.
Russia—another great empire based on landmass predominantly—started to add
Sea as a perspective to its geopolitical outlook late—only at the beginning of the
eighteenth century, following Peter the Great observations made during his voyages
in western states (e.g., in the Netherlands). Building fleet allowing Russia to expand
its global footprint took decades—and never really changed the state in which the
country is land-based superpower. However, through work and writings of people
like Sergey Gorshkov,2 admiral of the fleet of the Soviet Union, it was attempting to
combine both Land and Sea Dimensions of the (Evil3 ) Empire. Gorshkov himself, in
his seminal work, did not agree with the sole “Land” dimension of Russian military
history, arguing that the navy was always present in Russian warfare [14]. However,
since the fall of the Soviet state in 1991 its ability to exert military presence on
the oceans globally shrank significantly, despite attempts to restore its potential (of
course, this does not mean that Russia does not attempt to build, e.g., its submarine

2 In1976 he published a book in Russian called “The Sea Power of the State” which—published in
English in 1979—was a great source of insight into Soviet way of framing the world and Sea from
strategic perspective.
3 As phrased used by Ronald Reagan in 1983. For video record of the speech, visit: https://youtu.

be/do0x-Egc6oA (access: Nov 23, 2019).

Geopolitical Perspective on the Sea: Key Highlights … 503

Fig. 2 Title page of Karl’s Haushofer book devoted to Sea. Source Author’s private resources

capabilities to be able to potentially destroy submarine cables that are vital to global
connectivity).

3 (Geopolitical) Outlook for the Twenty-First Century

Looking at a contemporary outlook on geopolitical risks, we can conclude that sea

takes an important part of states surface area. Linked together with economic dimen-
sion of sea and trade and supply of goods and resources, it creates increasing pressure
504 A. Kazanecka et al.

on global and regional actors to deal with rising geopolitical risks, that have increas-
ingly important maritime components [4]. Before we enlist key focus areas to be
analyzed by geopolitics focused on Sea, let us highlight two core observations that
should not be omitted when reflecting on the Sea in geopolitics.
First, Sea is not static. Despite often treated in classic geopolitics as a stage for
the activity of geopolitical actors that “just is”, it undergoes changes from physi-
cal geography and political and economic geography perspective. Global warming
increases the global Sea level, changing the lives of societies settled close to the
shore. Sea nature is evolving enabling increasing navigation through the so-called
Northern Sea Route. Humans create artificial islands that bring new landscapes to
the interplay of actors and enable new agency at Sea, bringing new challenges. New
canals and passages are being created (Suez Canal and Panama Canal are the most
remarkable evidence in recent history, but Canal in Nicaragua might at some point
also join the list). Laws are being introduced (such as fisheries policy in the EU)
that introduce legal limitations and bring new dynamics to the geopolitical compe-
tition. Innovations, like standardized containers, bring additional context for Sea as
a place—strengthening the shipping network as visible in Fig. 3 [15]. Hence, what
was not existing a few decades ago, now is a reality. Treating Sea in the same way as
it was decades ago would be a mistake for geopolitical thinkers and policymakers.
Second, Sea has few multidimensional aspects that reach beyond just trade or
movement of military forces. It serves as a place for obtaining natural resources (from
aquaculture to non-renewable sources of energy, like oil or gas), it enables movement
(transport of goods and people, including military projections of power), it provides
access to most of the information through the system on submarine cables that are

Fig. 3 Global shipping network. Source Nicolas Rapp website, https://nicolasrapp.com/studio/

portfolio/the-shipping-news/ accessed on December 2019. Used with permission
Geopolitical Perspective on the Sea: Key Highlights … 505

placed under its surface (see e.g. https://submarine-cable-map-2018.telegeography.

com/ for visualizations). As a result, it provides a complex system of ideas to be
analyzed from twenty-first-century geopolitics.
What are then the areas for political and military strategists applying geopolitical
lenses to understand geopolitics at Sea going forwards? Below are ideas to start with:
1. Security considerations (including military), including the ability to:
a. Control and protect territory within Exclusive Economic Zone or interna-
tional border of a given actor (e.g. in the case of illegal shipments of good
and/or people)
b. Control strategically important nodes of international trade (applicable for
global players only, like the US or China)
c. Leverage Sea for potential nuclear counterstrike (applicable for global
nuclear superpowers like the US or Russia)
d. Project power internationally (transfer troops, enable invasion from the Sea)
or defend in case of such threat (in case of offensive projection of power,
applicable only to global players).
2. Socio-economic considerations of policymaking, including the ability to:
a. Enforce rule of law (e.g., for fisheries limitations, environment protection by
players extracting non-renewables like oil and gas)
b. Create favorable condition for scaling advantages of access to Sea (e.g.,
by stimulating maritime trade, fisheries, building infrastructure, promoting
tourism)
c. Apply long term strategic perspective on Sea policy, going beyond “here and
now”, with an outlook for future generations.
Worth noticing is that the factors above are interconnected and cannot be treated
in isolation. They create a challenging environment for reflection, where the ratio-
nale of grand strategy (usually brought forward by military circles) and day to day
perspective that defines the life of population are usually at conflict. All this leads
to the conviction that there will be plenty of upcoming academic research (maybe
applying the notion of geopolitical code presented above?) to understand the behav-
ior of states and other actors in the years to follow. This paper—hopefully—will
serve as a starting point for additional, broader debate in the field.

References

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shipping-news/. Accessed and Permission Dec 2019
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea
Through Hybridity: EU Narrative Under
Scrutiny

Ana Paula Brandão

Abstract The construction of EU security actorness has been accompanied by a

narrative on broad concept of security and “comprehensive approach” to deal with
threats. This trend has been intensified in recent years as demonstrated by the dis-
course on the Daesh activity, ‘hybrid threats’ and border security. This paper focuses
on the constructed linkage between ‘hybrid threats’ and maritime security by the
European Union. Resorting to the securitisation theoretical framework combined
with a conceptual matrix on security actorness, it is argued that EU narrative reflects
a securitising move intensified by the mutual reinforcing broadness and vagueness of
the terms ‘maritime security’ and ‘hybrid threats’. This securitising move is explained
by a co-constitutive rationale: ‘more security’—appropriation of policies and instru-
ments of a multifunctional actor for security purposes (security of the EU, its Member
States and their citizens); ‘more actorness’—securitisation of issues in order to pro-
mote the actor and its policies. This securitising move is favoured by the convergence
of opportunity (broadening and deepening of security intensified by the post-2014
events), capacity (legal, institutional, policy and operational capacity in the field of
security), and (ambition to have a global) presence.

Keywords European Union · Hybrid threats · Maritime security · Securitisation

1 Introduction

The European Union (EU) has been innovative in creating a de facto security com-
munity that overcame the European interstate conflict, and since the end of the Cold
War, it endeavoured to institutionalise the security actorness (with global reach and
through a comprehensive approach) to tackle complex security challenges. In a con-
text in which EU discourse has been fertile in declaring the priority of the security
agenda and of the achievement of both the ‘Security Union’ and the ‘Defence Union’,

A. P. Brandão (B)
CICP, EEG, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 507
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_44
508 A. P. Brandão

it is paramount to reflect upon the rationale and effects of the evolving EU security
actorness.
EU security actorness reinforces and is reinforced by the narrative on the security
nexuses, namely between internal and external security, public and private security,
civilian and military security. This narrative and its practices raise several question-
ings about what (means the nexuses), the why, how (to implement them), and the
‘with what effects’. The paper focuses on the latest declared nexus between secu-
rity and hybridity that connect the aforementioned nexuses, applied to the maritime
space.
Bearing this in mind, the central research question guiding this paper is: How and
why does the EU construct the nexus between maritime security and ‘hybrid threats’?
Resorting to the securitisation theoretical framework [1] combined with a conceptual
matrix on security actorness [2], applied to the analysis of EU strategic documents
on security, it is argued that EU narrative reflects a securitising move intensified by
the mutual reinforcing broadness and vagueness of the terms ‘maritime security’ and
‘hybrid threats’. This securitising move is explained by a co-constitutive rationale:
‘more security’—appropriation of policies and instruments of a multifunctional actor
for security purposes; ‘more actorness’—securitisation of issues in order to promote
the actor and its policies. This securitising move is favoured by the convergence
of opportunity (broadening and deepening of security intensified by the post-2014
events), capacity (legal, institutional, policy and operational capacity in the field of
security), and (ambition to have a global) presence.

2 Key Concepts, Theoretical Framework, and Methodology

The concepts of ‘maritime security’ (MS) and ‘hybrid threats’ (HT) are both buz-
zwords in the field of international relations and security [3], and therefore contested
(polysemic) concepts.
The notion of non-conventional threats appeared during the Cold War associated
with military force and ‘hybrid warfare’. More recently, the narrative on HT has been
disseminated and obtained a particular relevance in national and European political
agendas associated to different phenomena such as the transnational terrorism by
non-state actors, the radicalisation and recruitment (into terrorism) using the internet
(e.g. Daesh), the cybercrime increase and sophistication, the annexation of Crimea
by Russia, disinformation campaigns by State (e.g. Russia, China) or/and non-state
actors.
The expression is a political construct characterised by imprecise, fluid, catch-all
notions used by States and IOs, such as the EU and NATO, without a consensual
definition. HT is a contested concept: “each differs over issues of attribution, vulner-
abilities, capabilities and intentions” [4], and over the importance and urgency of the
fight against them. Alongside that semantic polysemy and those different approaches,
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea Through Hybridity … 509

some authors question the novelty about HT and consider the expression a “concep-
tual honey trap which attracts attention by dressing up a very old phenomenon as
something fresh and new” [4].
Hybridity is a challenging term at both conceptual/theoretical (academic)
and practical/political (decision/policy-making) levels: “the terms hybridity and
hybridization are used to characterise phenomena which are easily detected as some-
how “borderline” but not so easily explained” [5]. In rigour, it implies opposition to
purity. “Every discipline which argues about hybridity has to define what it under-
stands to be pure. If nothing can be designated as pure, everything is hybrid and
hybridity becomes a redundant term which might then be used in a metaphorical
way for stimulating discussion, but not as a conceptual tool.” [6].
The conceptualisation and theorisation of hybridity has been particularly relevant
in Cultural and Post-colonial Studies. Homi Bhabha, for some the father of the “Hy-
brid Theory”, mentions “a Third Space of Enunciation”, a shared culture mutually
developed by (the interdependence between) colonizers and colonised. Yazdhia uses
this framework “for deconstructing the rigid labels that maintain social inequities
through exclusion in race, language, and nation” [7].
In International Relations and, in particular, in Security Studies, the term was
used for the first time during the Cold War and applied to asymmetric warfare. In the
twenty-first century, “a wider debate within American (Western) military circles on
the inefficiency of Western conventional power in asymmetric conflicts (…) has been
caused by the combined use of conventional and irregular methods of warfare by the
Taliban, Al Qaeda and Hezbollah” [8]. Despite the increasing academic and political
relevance of the issue, hybridity “remains confusing. Scholars and practitioners in
the defence and security field have many different meanings in mind, considering
their own agenda and concerns” [9].
“Maritime security” is also a broad and “nebulous concept” [10]. The minimum
consensus is on the relevance of MS. Besides this, its practical meaning differs
“across actors, time and space” [11]. It encompasses not only the protection against
natural and environmental challenges [12], but also protection from crimes at sea (e.g.
piracy), peace and security the Security of Sea Lines of Communications, resource
security, access to resources at sea and to the seabed, security of all seafarers and
fishermen, among others [13]. The list of threats ranges from interstate disputes,
including human trafficking, to pollution [14].
The securitisation process is analysed through the lens of the Copenhagen School
[1]: the speech acts on ‘maritime security’ and ‘hybrid threats’ by three EU insti-
tutions, two that represent the Member States interests (Council of the EU, Euro-
pean Council) and one that represents the common interest (European Commission),
including the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy (member of the
Council and of the Commission); the (perceived) threats (‘hybrid threats’). The anal-
ysis of EU actorness was based on the three elements conceptualised by Bretherton
and Vogler [2]: opportunity (“denotes factors in the external environment of ideas
and events which constrain or enable actorness”), presence (“conceptualises the abil-
ity of the EU, by virtue of its existence, to exert influence beyond its borders”) and
capability (“refers to the internal context of EU external action—the availability
510 A. P. Brandão

of policy instruments and understandings about the Union’s ability to utilise these
instruments, in response to opportunity and/or to capitalize on presence”) [15]. Based
on the conceptual framework of Kirchner and Sperling [2], two security functions
were considered in the analysis: compulsion (Common Security and Defence Pol-
icy) and protection (internal security). For the purpose of this paper, the qualitative
analysis of EU official documents, namely EU strategies on security [16], is focused
on the nexus between ‘maritime security’ and ‘hybrid threats’.

3 EU Agenda on ‘Hybrid Threats’

In the post-9/11, the security policy area ascended in the EU agenda alongside the
internal-external security nexus narrative, and with the comprehensive approach to
security challenges, problems and threats. Although the 2008 crisis put in the fore-
front the economic and financial issues, post-2014 events (the Daesh and several
terrorist attacks in European cities, the Islamic radicalisation, including the use of
the Internet to propagate the message and to recruit mainly young people to violent
actions, the foreign fighters phenomena, the Crimea annexation by Russia, the Face-
book/Cambridge Analytics scandal, the external-based disinformation campaigns in
EU Member States national elections) justified the relevance of the security agenda,
declared a political priority by the Junker Commission [17] and the subsequent
announcement of measures in order to create a ‘Security Union’ and a ‘Defence
Union’ [18]. The above-mentioned developments also contributed to enhance the
narrative on ‘hybrid threats’. These have been prioritised in EU security agenda:
“Hybrid activities by State and non-state actors continue to pose a serious and acute
threat to the EU and its Member States. (…) Our societies face a serious challenge
from those who seek to damage the EU and its Member States, from cyber-attacks dis-
rupting the economy and public services, through targeted disinformation campaigns
to hostile military actions.” [19].
The milestone of the EU agenda on HT is the “Joint Framework on countering
hybrid threats—a European Union response” adopted in 2016 [20]. This document
presented a common definition of HT (see Table 2) and formulated 22 measures
to fight them by recognising the hybrid nature of the threat; improving awareness;
building resilience; preventing, responding to crisis and recovering; increasing coop-
eration with NATO [20]. In 2018, it was reinforced by the “Joint Communication—
Increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats”, more
focused “on strategic communications and situational awareness, chemical, biolog-
ical, radiological and nuclear threats, resilience and cybersecurity as well as counter
intelligence” [21]. Since then, there have been political, legislative and institutional
improvements to counter HT. As in the fight against terrorism, the EU adopted a
comprehensive approach, and the changes included both the adaptation of existing
and transversal (political, legislative, institutional) instruments (in line with the com-
prehensive approach to security) and the creation of specific ones. The advance of
the implementation of the measures was presented in three Progress Reports (2017,
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea Through Hybridity … 511

2018, and 2019). Besides a panoply of measures in sectorial domains relevant for
countering HT, it is worth mention the main (and new) specific instruments in order
strengthen EU capacity [22]: the StratCom Task Forces (East StratCom Task Force’
(2015); the Inter-Service Group (ISG) on countering hybrid threats (CHT) (2016); the
Council’s Friends of Presidency Group on Countering Hybrid Threats (FoP) (2016);
the EU operational protocol for countering hybrid threats—EU Playbook (2016, cur-
rently under revision); the EU Hybrid Fusion Cell, created inside EU INTCEN of the
EEAS (2016); the Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE)
(2017); the Hybrid Fusion Cell’s network of national points of contact for countering
hybrid threats (2017); the Risk survey (launched in 2017) and the report on the key
findings of the survey and policy recommendation (2018); the Action Plan against
Disinformation (2018); the report on the Chimera exercise (2018); the Rapid Alert
System (2019); a conceptual model for the analysis of hybrid threats with parameters,
such as actors, tools, domains and timeline under development by the Commission
and the Centre of Excellence (peer reviewed in May 2019); a pan-European network
of practitioners and other actors to monitor research and innovation projects, express
common requirements and indicate priorities for standardisation (to be created in
2020); the international cooperation (NATO; G7; partners countries the Hybrid Risk
Surveys launched in Moldova, Georgia, Jordan, Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo
and Montenegro).
In the first trimester of 2019, under the Romania presidency, a high-level confer-
ence and a simulation took place in Bucharest in order to enhance EU action on HT,
resilience and strategic communication (HRS). The main conclusions were on: the
importance of EU norms and values to counter harmful and false messaging; better
coordination among institutions, governments and policy sectors (overcome ‘hybrid
silos’); the deepening of EU-NATO cooperation; the development of communities of
expertise (in health, energy, transport, finances, space, media, cyber); the importance
of the security of the EU’s digital supply networks and infrastructure (the personal
data usage, the digital resilience, the foreign direct investment, the security of elec-
toral processes and free and fair electoral campaigns, intellectual property rights
and the responsible use of social media as key aspects of critical infrastructure);
the rapid identification of and reaction to HT; the nuanced strategic communica-
tion approaches that target specific audiences; the development of resilience in the
digital world considering that patterns of media and information consumption are
rapidly changing [4]. Despite the general and specific achievements, the Report also
identifies critical points regarding information-sharing and intelligence exchange
between Member States and across EU institutions, risk assessments (minimal level
of information exchange), lack of trust that hamper proper response networks, and
compartmentalised strategies and responses to HT by the EU institutions [4].
The use of ‘hybridity’ in the realm of security is particularly problematic. ‘Hybrid-
ity’ is a grey area (state and non-state actors, conventional and non-conventional
methods) aggravated by its association to terms such as ‘fluidity’, ‘ambiguity’, ‘flex-
ibility’, ‘evolving nature’ [23], ‘multidimensional’ [24], ‘amorphous’ [25]. Differ-
ently from the rational sustained by Yazdhia [7], in the security area hybridity enables
securitisation (see for instance the whole-society approach to fight HT) and derived
512 A. P. Brandão

effects, such as (re)constructing separation (“us” against “the other”), exclusion,

‘rebordering’, urgency and exceptionality, that compromise “normal politics” [1].

4 ‘Hybrid Threats’ as an Enabler of Sea Securitisation

In 2014 the Council declared: “sea matters” [26]. EU Maritime Security Strategy
(EUMSS) marked the third phase of EU road to promote a European agenda on
maritime affairs beyond the fisheries sector. The first phase corresponded to the
longest period characterised by the omission of the topic in EU agenda [27], followed
by the politicisation and securitisation phases [28]. The second phase started with the
prioritisation of maritime environment protection by the sixth environmental program
(2002). The interconnected environmental and economic rationales [29] were also
behind the three main Commission’s communications of the politicisation process,
intended to implement an integrated maritime policy: the proposal for a European
Marine Strategy (2005), the Maritime Policy Green Paper (2006) and the Blue Book
(2007). The EUMSS enshrined the securitisation trend: maritime security is perceived
nowadays as one “of the fundamental strategic interests of the European Union” [30],
not only for economic and environmental reasons that underlined the politicisation
phase, but also for an interconnected security and political rationale—EU presence
as a “global maritime security provider” [31] (Table 1).
This securitising trend has been intensified by the HT construct. Differently from
the 2014 EUMSS [26], the conclusions of the Council on the revision of this strategy

Table 1 EU maritime interests

EU interests [26]
Political – “[A]ssuming increased responsibilities as a global security provider, at the
international level and in particular in its neighbourhood, thereby also
enhancing its own security and its role as a strategic global actor”
– “Enhancing the visibility of the EU in the global maritime domain”
Security – “The security of the EU, its Member States and their citizens”
– “The preservation of peace (…), the peaceful settlement of maritime
disputes (…), the prevention of conflicts and the strengthening of
international security”
– “The protection against maritime security risks and threats”
– “The preservation of freedom of navigation, the protection of the global EU
supply chain and of maritime trade, the right of innocent and transit passage
of ships and the security of their crew and passengers”
– “The effective management of the Union’s maritime external borders and
maritime areas of EU interest”
Economic – “The protection of economic interests”
Environmental – “The protection of the environment and the management of the impact of
climate change in maritime areas and coastal regions, as well as the
conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity”
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea Through Hybridity … 513

and its Action Plan [31] includes for the first time measures to fight HT: “assess
and improve the resilience of critical maritime transport infrastructure, such as port
security, sea lines of communication, energy infrastructure, offshore installations and
telecommunications networks and sensors (…), including under water”; “pursue a
comprehensive approach to maritime security risk management, in particular by
conducting common risk analysis and identifying possible gaps and overlaps in this
domain” (see Part A ‘Horizontal actions’—strand ‘Risk awareness and management’
of the revised Action Plan) [31]. Since 2017, the Hybrid CoE has been developing
practitioner networks across Member States, EU and NATO and the private sector
on several areas, in order “to train, exercise and share best practice with one another,
as well as coordinating action and testing policy response options” [32]. In March
2018 it launched a Network on Maritime vulnerabilities and resilience—the Centre’s
Community of Interest (COI) on Vulnerabilities and Resilience. The COI work is
being developed along three strands: ports, shipping and underwater cables [33].
At the Informal Meeting of EU Defence Ministers in Helsinki (August 2019), the
ministers discussed on hybrid threats and maritime security, and Federica Mogherini
presented the concept of “Coordinated Maritime Presences” aimed at coordinating
“naval presence in a certain specific area that would be recognised as strategically
important for the European Union as such” and focused on getting and sharing
information, awareness and assessments at European level, and also with partners
[30]. It is expected to be implemented at the Gulf Guinea in order to precisely
tackle the HT-attacks or threats posed to the maritime routes by piracy or criminal
organisations [30]. Even though they were implemented before the Joint Framework
[16], it is worth mention that the two major maritime operations of the Common
Security and Defence Policy—Atalanta and Sophia Operations—are in fact against
HT (counter-piracy and counter-migrant smuggling and trafficking).
“Threats in the maritime domain tend to be progressively hybrid in nature and
difficult to model on account of their complex appearance and cascading nature” [34].
The nexus between MS and HT is established through the comprehensive approach to
deal with HT, particularly threats against critical infrastructure on maritime transport
and supply chain security and cyber-attacks against the maritime transport sector
[20]. According with: rapid digitalisation process and interconnectivity of the naval
world HT reinforce MS broadness: an evolving broad definition and comprehensive
approach (see Table 2) to the benefit of two co-constitutive desiderata—EU security
and EU global actorness.

5 Concluding Remarks

EU security actorness has been evolving since the end of the Cold War by a com-
bination of opportunity (broadening and deepening of security discourses, changes
in the internal-external security environment), capacity (legal, institutional, policy
and operational capacity in the field of security), and (ambition to have a global)
presence. This evolution has been characterised by a securitising trend associated
514 A. P. Brandão

Table 2 Maritime security and hybrid threats—definition, threats and response

Maritime security [26] Hybrid threats
Definition “[A] state of affairs of the global “The mixture of coercive and
maritime domain, in which subversive activity, conventional and
international law and national law are unconventional methods (…), which
enforced, freedom of navigation is can be used in a coordinated manner by
guaranteed and citizens, infrastructure, state or non-state actors to achieve
transport, the environment and marine specific objectives while remaining
resources are protected” below the threshold of formally
declared warfare” [20]
Threats – Nature: multifaceted; transnational – Nature: multidimensional; flexible;
– Spectrum: threats or use of force evolving [20]
against Member States’ rights and – Spectrum: “from cyber-attacks
jurisdiction over their maritime disrupting the economy and public
zones; threats to the security of services, through targeted
European citizens and to economic disinformation campaigns to hostile”
interests at sea following acts of [21]
external aggression including those – Aims: “to exploit a country’s
related to maritime disputes, threats vulnerabilities and often seek to
to Member States’ sovereign rights undermine fundamental democratic
or armed conflicts values and liberties” [20]; “to
– Cross-border and organised crime; destabilise countries by undermining
terrorism; the proliferation of public trust in government
weapons of mass destruction institutions and by challenging the
– Threats to freedom of navigation; core values of societies” [21]
environmental risks; potential
security impact of natural or
man-made disasters, extreme events
and climate change on the maritime
transport system and in particular on
maritime infrastructure; illegal and
unregulated archaeological research
and pillage of archaeological objects
Response Comprehensive approach: Comprehensive approach:
cross-sectoral (maritime policy, internal cross-sectoral (digital economy,
and external security, environment, internal security—terrorism and
customs, fisheries, economy, energy, radicalisation, cybersecurity, maritime
transport, tourism, research); policy, energy policy, CFSP/CSDP);
multi-actor—EU (institutions, services – multi-actor—EU (institutions,
and agencies), Member States, civilian services and agencies), Member States,
and military authorities and actors, civil society, private sector, including
industry; multilevel (international, EU media and online platforms
and national levels) whole-of-government approach;
whole-of-society approach;
multilevel—international, European,
national and subnational levels [20]
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea Through Hybridity … 515

with the broadening and prioritisation of EU security agenda in terms of both

(multidimensional) threat perception and (comprehensive) approach to tackle the
threats. The securitising move is explained by a co-constitutive rationale: ‘more
security’—appropriation of policies and instruments of a multifunctional actor for
security purposes (security of the EU, its Member States and their citizens); ‘more
actorness’—securitisation of issues in order to promote the actor and its policies.
This trend has been intensified in the post-2014 period by two phenomena: the
agenda-setting on hybrid threats following the security problems in the neighbour-
hood of the EU, especially the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the violence
committed by the Daesh, and within EU itself (e.g. terrorists attacks in Brussels in
May 2014 and Paris in January 2015 and November 2015); the expansion of EU
security actorness to maritime affairs by the EUMSS. EU narrative on HT in the
maritime environment enables the securitisation of the sea by virtue of its broad,
fluid and vague nature.

Acknowledgements This study was conducted at Research Center in Political Science

(UIDB/CPO/00758/2020), University of Minho, and supported by the Portuguese Foundation for
Science and Technology and the Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science through national
funds.

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Kirchner, E., Sperling, J.: EU Security Governance. Manchester University Press, Manchester
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3. Bueger, C.: What is maritime security? Mar. Policy 53, 159–164 (2015). https://doi.org/10.
1016/j.marpol.2014.12.005; Fiott, D., Parkes, R.P.: Protecting Europe: The EU’s response to
hybrid threats. Chaillot Pap. 151(2019) (EUISS, Paris)
4. Fiott, D., Parkes, R.P.: Protecting Europe: The EU’s response to hybrid threats. Chaillot Pap.
151(2019) (EUISS, Paris)
5. Stockhammer, P.W.: Questioning hybridity. In: Stockhammer, P.W. (ed.) Conceptualizing
Cultural Hybridization: A Transdisciplinary Approach, vol. 1. Springer, Berlin (2012)
6. Stockhammer, P.W.: Questioning hybridity. In: Stockhammer, P.W. (ed.) Conceptualizing
Cultural Hybridization: A Transdisciplinary Approach, vol. 2. Springer, Berlin (2012)
7. Yazdhia, H.: Conceptualizing Hybridity: Deconstructing BOUNDARIES Through the Hybrid,
vol. 31. CUNY Academic Works (2010). http://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_pubs/314
8. Vračar, M., Ćurčić, M.: The evolution of European perception of the term ‘hybrid warfare’.
Vojno Delo 1, 5 (2018)
9. Facon, I., Mazzucchi, N., Patry, J.-J.: Workshop Countering Hybrid Threats: EU and the Western
Balkans Case, vol. 9. European Parliament, Brussels (2018). https://doi.org/10.2861/850978
10. Feldt, L., Roell, P., Thiele, R.: Maritime security—perspectives for a comprehensive approach.
ISPSW Strategy Ser. Focus Defense Int. Secur. 2, 222 (2013)
11. Bueger, C.: What is maritime security? Mar. Policy 53, 163 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
marpol.2014.12.005
516 A. P. Brandão

12. There is also no consensus on the difference between ‘maritime security’ and ‘maritime safety’.
According to Kira Frankenthal, the latter corresponds to the environmental dimension [Franken-
thal, K.: The EU as a Maritime Security Actor in the Mediterranean Sea. Nomos, Baden Baden
(2019)]. Differently, Bueger defines ‘maritime safety as “the safety of ships and maritime
installations with the primary purpose of protecting maritime professionals and the marine
environment” [Bueger, C.: What is maritime security? Mar. Policy 53, 160. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.marpol.2014.12.005 (2015)]. According to Yarin Eski, “Maritime safety encom-
passes the protection of ports, ships, and their communities against unintentional dangers
and harms” [Eski, Y.: Maritime security: problems of security versus safety practices. In:
Shapiro, L.R., Maras, M.-H. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Security and Emergency Management
Living. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69891-5_90-2 (2018)]. According
to Suk Kyoon Kim, “maritime safety concerns primarily with preventive activities to protect
life and property at the sea and is the responsibility of the shipping industry and actors at the
operational level” [Kim, S.K.: Define Maritime Safety and Security, Global Maritime Safety
& Security Issues and East Asia, vol. 9. Brill Nijhof, Leiden (2019)]
13. Feldt, L., Roell, P., Thiele, R.: Maritime security—perspectives for a comprehensive approach.
ISPSW Strategy Ser. Focus Defense Int. Secur. 222, 3 (2013)
14. See: Bueger’s Maritime security matrix that connects four dimensions of MS: marine envi-
ronment, economic development national security, human security [3]; the “Maritime Secu-
rity Index—Stable Seas”, launched by the One Earth Foundation in a joint event with IMO
and UNDOC, measures and maps nine issues across sub-Saharan Africa that are central to
achieving sustainable maritime security and good maritime governance, including both threats
and buffers against the threats: international cooperation; rule of law; maritime enforcement;
coastal welfare; blue economy; fisheries; piracy and armed robbery at sea; illicit trades; mar-
itime mixed migration [Bell, C.S, Glaser, S.: Stable Seas Maritime Security Index: Codebook,
Version 1.0. One Earth Future, 1 (2018). https://stableseas.org/sites/default/files/stable_seas_
codebook.pdf]
15. Bretherton, C., Vogler, J.: The European Union as a Global Actor, vol. 24. Routledge, New
York (2006)
16. EU Maritime Security Strategy (2014); European Agenda on Security (2015); Joint Framework
on Countering Hybrid Threats (2016); EU Global Strategy (2016)
17. President Juncker’s Political Guidelines. 15 July 2014 (2014). https://ec.europa.eu/
commission/publications/president-junckers-political-guidelines_en
18. President Jean-Claude Juncker’s State of the Union Address 2017 (2017). https://ec.europa.eu/
commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_17_3165
19. European Commission & High Representative High Representative of the European Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: Joint communication to the European Parliament,
the European Council and the Council—Increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to
address hybrid threat (JOIN/2018/16 final) (2018). See also: “threats such as those posed by
cyberterrorism and hybrid threats could increase in the years to come” (European Commission:
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European
Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions—The European Agenda
on Security (COM/2015/185 final) (2015)); “Today terrorism, hybrid threats, climate change,
economic volatility and energy insecurity endanger our people and territory. To preserve and
develop what we achieved so far, a step change is essential” [European Council: Shared Vision,
Common Action: A Stronger Europe—A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign
And Security Policy (2016)]; “Hybrid threats are a persistent challenge” [European Commis-
sion and High Representative High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy: Joint staff working document Report on the implementation of the 2016
Joint Framework on countering hybrid threats and the 2018 Joint Communication on increasing
resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats (SWD/2019/200 final) (2019)]
20. European Commission and High Representative High Representative of the European Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: Joint communication to the European Parliament
Enabling the Securitisation of the Sea Through Hybridity … 517

and the Council—Joint Framework on countering hybrid threats a European Union response
(JOIN/2016/18 final) (2016)
21. European Commission and High Representative High Representative of the European Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: Joint communication to the European Parliament, the
European Council and the Council—Increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address
hybrid threat (JOIN/2018/16 final) (2018)
22. European Commission and High Representative High Representative of the European Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: Joint staff working document Report on the imple-
mentation of the 2016 Joint Framework on countering hybrid threats and the 2018 Joint
Communication on increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats
(SWD/2019/200 final) (2019)
23. “While definitions of hybrid threats vary and need to remain flexible to respond to their evolving
nature” [20] “By design, hybrid threats will continuously evolve based on the success of
their application, continuing technological developments, changes in potential adversaries’
vulnerabilities and developments in measures to counter them. The important factor for the
EU is to be able to recognise the overall effect and build resilience as a means of countering
the attack” [EEAS: Food-for-thought paper “Countering Hybrid Threats” (2015). https://www.
statewatch.org/news/2015/may/eeas-csdp-hybrid-threats-8887-15.pdf]
24. Multidimensional hybrid campaigns intended to damage and destabilise countries [21]
25. “This amorphous set of threats exists below the level of war, enabling other powers to
exploit existing societal divisions and sow confusion and instability”. [Gressel, G.: Protecting
Europe against hybrid threats, Policy Brief (2019). https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/
protecting_europe_against_hybrid_threats]
26. Council of the European Union: Maritime Security Strategy (2014). http://register.consilium.
europa.eu/doc/srv?l=EN&f=ST%2011205%202014%20INIT
27. See “Sea blindeness” [Frankenthal, K.: The EU as a Maritime Security Actor in the
Mediterranean Sea, vol. 14. Nomos, Baden Baden (2019)]
28. “Politicization means to make tin issue appear to be open, a matter of choicer/something
that is decided upon and that therefore entails responsibility, in contrast to issues that either
could not be different (laws of nature) or should not be put under political control (e.g. a free
economy, the private sphere, and matter for expert decision). By contrast, securitization on the
international level (although often not on the domestic one) means to present an issue as urgent
and existential, as so important that it should not be exposed to the normal haggling of politics
but should be dealt with decisively by top leaders prior to other issues.” [Buzan, B., Waever,
O., Wilde, J.: Security: A New Framework for Analysis, vol. 29. Lynne Rienner Publishers,
Boulder, CO (1998)]
29. See the “Sustainable development” argument: Green Paper—Towards a future Maritime Policy
for the Union: A European vision for the oceans and seas “ (COM (2006) 275) (2006); “Blue
Book”—Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the
European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions—An Integrated
Maritime Policy for the European Union (COM(2007) 574 final) (2007)
30. Remarks by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini at the press con-
ference following the Informal Meeting of EU Defence Ministers Helsinki, 29/08/2019
(2019). https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/66784/remarks-high-
representativevice-president-federica-mogherini-press-conference-following_en
31. Council of the European Union: Council conclusions on the revision of the European Union
Maritime Security Strategy (EUMSS) Action Plan (2018). https://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/
sites/maritimeaffairs/files/2018-06-26-eumss-revised-action-plan_en.pdf
32. Hybrid CoE: Strategic Communications and Resilience—Speech by Director Matti
Saarelainen (2019). https://www.hybridcoe.fi/news/strategic-communications-and-resilience-
speech-by-director-matti-saarelainen
33. Hybrid CoE: Network on Maritime vulnerabilities and resilience launched (2018). https://www.
hybridcoe.fi/news/network-maritime-vulnerabilities-resilience-launched. The Hybrid CoE
also published two Working Papers on “Maritime Security”: [35]; Savolainen, J.: Hybrid
518 A. P. Brandão

Threats and Vulnerabilities of Modern Critical Infrastructure—Weapons of Mass Disturbance

(WMDi)? (2019)
34. Lohela, T., Schatz, V. (eds.): Handbook on maritime hybrid threats—10 Scenarios and
Legal Scans, vol. 13 (2019). https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/NEW_
Handbook-on-maritime-threats_RGB.pdf
35. “We are seeing growing demand for a European Union role as a maritime security provider
not only in our region, but also further away—I think of Asia or the Pacific, the Indian Ocean
-, where the European Union and the Member States have a clear interest in guaranteeing the
freedom of navigation and the security of the maritime routes” [30]
Algorithms for Crime Prediction
in Smart Cities Through Data Mining

Jesús Silva, Ligia Romero, Roberto Jiménez González, Omar Larios,

Fanny Barrantes, Omar Bonerge Pineda Lezama, and Alberto Manotas

Abstract The concentration of police resources in conflict zones contributes to

the reduction of crime in the region and the optimization of those resources. This
paper presents the use of regression techniques to predict the number of criminal
acts in Colombian municipalities. To this end, a set of data was generated merging
the data from the Guardia Civil with public data on the demographic structure and
voting trends in the municipalities. The best regressor obtained (Random Forests)
achieves a RRSE (Root Relative Squared Error) of 40.12% and opens the way to keep
incorporating public data of another type with greater predictive power. In addition,
M5Rules were used to interpret the results.

Keywords Public data · Data mining · Prediction of facts

J. Silva (B) · O. Larios · F. Barrantes

Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru
e-mail: [email protected]
O. Larios
e-mail: [email protected]
F. Barrantes
e-mail: [email protected]
L. Romero · R. J. González
Universidad de la Costa, St. 58 #66, Barranquilla, Atlántico, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]
R. J. González
e-mail: [email protected]
O. B. P. Lezama
Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), San Pedro Sula, Honduras
e-mail: [email protected]
A. Manotas
Corporacion Universitaria minuto de Dios, UNIMINUTO, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 519
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_45
520 J. Silva et al.

1 Introduction

The concept of territoriality is established as a key concept in the search for maximiz-
ing the effectiveness of resources for all State Security Forces and Corps in charge of
safeguarding citizens’ rights and freedoms. It is for this reason that the statistic study
of criminality is constant in order to optimize the disposition of forces on the ground.
This study, which is constant over time, increases even more in times of economic
crisis since it is when there is a marked tendency to reduce resources while, due to
several reasons, there is a risk of an increase in criminality [1, 2].
Leaving aside the investigation of cybercrime and fraud, the use of automatic
learning techniques in the prediction of common crimes is very scarce. In recent
years, just some promising studies start to appear in this area. The focus of this
paper is to relate demographic data and voting trends in Spanish municipalities, with
criminal acts committed during a year, for predicting the criminality of municipalities
based on these variables [3].
In this sense, the study that most closely resembles the one presented in this paper
is of [4], who apply regression techniques with Random Forests [5] to predict the
number of urban homicides in Brazil through sociological and demographic city
data. Predictions reach a determination coefficient of 0.97. The authors point to
unemployment and illiteracy as the main variables used in their predictive model.
There are other studies in smaller geographical areas. In [6], the conflict zones of
a police district are studied in order to plan the action of street patrols. They worked
with data from Los Angeles (USA) and Kent (GB) and used an approximation based
on time series to study the evolution of those areas.
In [7], SVMs are used to predict whether a zone is conflictive or not, carrying out
the research in Columbus (Ohio) and St. Louis (Missouri).
In [8], the risk zones for sexual crimes on the University of Virginia Charlottesville
campus are analyzed. The logistic regression and Random Forests classifiers [9] are
used to sort a point as conflictive or not. It establishes, as the most important vari-
ables, the proximity of people with antecedents in sexual violence and residences
with student fraternities. They also use an approach of time series to analyze the time
interval, day of the week and time of the year with greater risk; as well as the influ-
ence of meteorological conditions, finding that temperature is the most determining
climatological factor. They use Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to compare risk
probabilities over different time periods.
Deep Learning techniques are also used in the prediction of crimes [10]. In this
case, the deep networks predict probable locations and moments of criminality in
the city of Chicago. This study merges socio-economic data with police data, as well
as climate data. Another work in the same line for the city of Manila is that of [11],
applying the Bayesian Networks as the classification algorithm among the tests that
offer better results.
The study presented in this paper covers all types of crimes in Colombian geogra-
phy. Unlike most of the previously reviewed works, it does not consider the temporal
Algorithms for Crime Prediction in Smart Cities … 521

evolution of criminal acts, since it focuses on predictions for the whole year. In addi-
tion to the use of demographic data, it presents the use of political preference data
obtained from the election results. The results obtained are the first step in a wider
project that aims to integrate more public data to improve predictions but, in the
current state, already offers some interesting results.

2 Method

This section presents the proposed method.

2.1 Data

For this research, public official data were crossed with statistics from the State
Security Office through the General Direction of the Guardia Civil. Public or open
data is understood as data that must be freely available to access, use, modify and
publish without copyright restrictions [12].
Governments have the capacity to obtain large amounts of information about the
population through various organizations (such as the National Institute of Statistics).
In this study, each instance of the data set represents a municipality. The number of
records in the set is 10,254, with a total of 126 attributes without considering the
class (number of criminal acts) [13]. Two public sources were used:
1. National Institute of Statistics (DANE). Statistics for the year 2016, correspond-
ing to the place of birth and age ranges. A total of 114 attributes. Place of birth
(51 attributes), Age ranges (64 attributes) [14].
2. Ministry of Interior. Electoral data, congressional elections (June 2016). A total
of 12 attributes [15].
The attributes of age ranges are distributed into 22 categories (0–4 years, 5–9 years,
…, 90–94 years, 95–99 years, more than 100 years) each of them broken down into
three sub-categories (women and men, only women, only men). The number of votes
for each formation was grouped into 10 categories (Extreme Left, Left, Center Left,
Center, Center Right, Right, Extreme Right, Others, Blank, and Null.). In order to
optimize the objectivity of the final conclusions, these categories were selected and
categorized by open sources and external to the researchers, in order not to introduce
subjectivities that could generate errors or induce erroneous conclusions [16].
In terms of class, in the 10,254 municipalities evaluated, a total of 45,254,985
events were recorded, the most common of which were: Theft crime (12.5%), infrac-
tion for consumption or possession of drugs in public places (8.4%), and robbery
with force (18.8%) [17].
522 J. Silva et al.

2.2 Regression Methods

The data set in the previous section underwent two transformations before being
used. First, all attributes were normalized, except for the variable to be predicted
in the interval [0.1]. Second, since the variable to be predicted represents a count
(number of criminal acts), it is assumed that it follows a Poisson distribution, so the
square root was applied to that variable.
Once the data were transformed, the researchers proceeded to experiment in
WEKA [18] by cross-validation 10 × 10 different regression techniques, to know
the most suitable of them. In the beginning, the default WEKA configuration was
used for all regressors, except where otherwise stated.
The regressors used in the experiment are grouped into two families: on the
one hand, regressors in solitary or singletons, and on the other, multi-regressors
or ensembles. The following singletons were tested:
• Decision tree M5P [19]. M5Ps are decision trees of the model trees family. These
trees contain a linear regression in the leaf nodes.
• M5Rules [20], which is a method that obtains decision rules from M5P trees,
so they are not expected to give very different results than the M5P. The reason
for including them is to justify their reliability in order to use them as a tool for
interpreting the results.
• Linear Regression, for optimizing the ridge parameter of the four tested versions,
and that arose from activating/deactivating the selection of variables and the elim-
ination of collinear attributes. The best version was taken as the one that did not
make selection of variables but eliminated colinear attributes.
• SVM for regression (SVM-Reg) [21], using LIBLINEAR [9] with linear kernel
and optimized C parameter.
• K-NN. Due to the high number of characteristics in the data set, two versions
were tested. The first one without attribute selection, the second one with attribute
selection using Correlation-based Feature Subset Selection [2]. In both versions,
the number of neighbors was optimized. The best version was the one that does
not make attribute selection and is the one reported on this paper.
The tested ensembles were as follows:
• Random Forest [5].
• AdaBoost.R2 [8]. Three configurations with linear, quadratic and exponential loss
function were tested. The configuration with the best results was selected in the
cross-validation 10 × 10 (quadratic loss).
• Additive Regression, which is an implementation of Stochastic Gradient Boosting
[10].
• Bagging [4].
• Iterated Bagging [6]. In this case, 40 Bagging iterations of 7 trees each are used
to simulate 120 trees.
Algorithms for Crime Prediction in Smart Cities … 523

Table 1 Results of the

Method RRSE Coef. Corr.
different RRSE methods
Random Forests 40.12 0.93
AdaBoost R2 40.42 0.93
Bagging 41.25 0.93
Iterated Bagging 41.98 0.91
Additive Regression 42.35 0.91
M5P 44.25 0.80
M5Rules 50.21 0.80
K-NN 60.23 0.80
SVM-Reg 75.85 0.75
Linear Regression 80.15 0.60

The results are shown in Table 1. As can be noted, the ensembles are at the head,
while the linear methods are at the bottom. This may be because, as indicated in
[16], the relationship between the size of cities and their criminality obeys more to
a potential law than to a linear relationship. In fact, the correlation coefficients in
the table show a very discrete correlation when using linear models, which improve
considerably in the case of M5P trees and M5Rules, which also use linear models
on the leaves, and reach an approximate value of 0.9 ensembles used.

3 Results and Discussions

The generation of rules using the M5Rules algorithm [13] was used to interpret the
data set. M5Rules generates an M5P tree, selects the best leaf, and, by doing AND
with the nodes in the path between the root and the leaf, generates the first rule. Then,
it discards from the tree the data that have fallen on that leaf and builds a new M5P
repeating the whole process to generate a second rule, and so successively generates
new trees for each rule with training data that are not covered by the previous rules,
until finally, every instance corresponds to a rule.
The WEKA implementation of M5Rules, at configuration of the algorithm by
default, includes a pruning process, so it eliminates the final rules, which tend to
concentrate on particular cases, replacing them with a linear model.
Table 1 shows that there are no relevant differences in terms of RRSE between
the best method and M5Rules, so it seems an acceptable approach to have a certain
interpretation of the data from the point of view of decision trees.
For this purpose, the complete training set was used and the following five rules
were generated (Fig. 1).
V represents the total number of males in the municipality, V [x, y] represents
the number of males in the age range [x, y], V + M[x, y] represents the sum of
males and females in the age range [x, y], Right and Center D is the percentage of
524 J. Silva et al.

Fig. 1 Association rules

votes to right and center-right formations, respectively. The last rule (ELSE) does not
contain a logical condition because it is the one that comes from the pruning of the
less important rules, already commented before. Note that the rules in the illustration
are not the originals generated by the algorithm, which, as indicated above, works
with normalized data in the range [0.1]. Instead, and for better comprehension, these
rules were translated with the values corresponding to unstandardized data. It can be
observed that the logical expressions in the five rules take the age ranges as variables,
paying close attention to the ranges around 30–39 years to characterize the five groups
of municipalities. It is probable that the model is taking these ages to characterize
the size of the municipalities. As an important novel contribution compared to other
related works, the orientation of the vote was also taken into account. On the contrary,
the origin of the population (foreign, born in the same municipality, etc.) was not
used.
The five groups generated by the rules are described in Table 2. This table includes
a Weight column calculated from the absolute values of the coefficients so that it
represents the quotient between the absolute value of the coefficient of that attribute,
divided by the sum of the absolute values of all the coefficients. Once the weight was
calculated, the attributes are sorted by the same descending order. The tables show
only those with the highest absolute value, namely those necessary for their sum to
exceed the threshold of 33.33% of the total weight.
The linear models in this table are confusing and do not draw conclusions about the
influence of a particular group in the occurrence of criminal acts. This is mainly due
to the inclusion relationships that exist between a large part of the attributes. That is,
some attributes represent collectives that are included within collectives represented
by other attributes. For example, in the linear model number 1, apparently, the most
important variable is the number of foreigners, which contributes to the appearance of
criminal acts with a positive sign and a weight of 10.11%. Although linear models do
not seem to yield any plausible conclusions, the analysis of the groups that generate
the rules is more revealing. Table 3 includes minimum, maximum, average and typical
deviation of the population, number of criminal acts and /hab for each of the groups
of municipalities defined by the five rules.
Algorithms for Crime Prediction in Smart Cities … 525

Table 2 Linear models

Coef. Variable Weight (%)
according to association rules
Linear model 1
+88,057.06 Foreigners 10.11
−67,198.54 Males + women from 0 to 6.25
4 years old
−52,414.39 Women of Foreigners 4.87
−50,685.00 Males + women from 30 to 4.54
34 years old
+41,147.52 Males + women from 40 to 3.96
44 years old
+33,965.67 Males + women from 60 to 3.24
64 years old
−32,025.03 Male 3.31
+0.72 Independent term
Linear model 2
+32,368,01 Males + women from 30 to 16.47
34 years old
−30,041,25 Males + women from 0 to 15.58
4 years old
−16,987,01 Males aged 30–34 8.01
+2.33 Independent term
Linear model 3
−15,147.14 Foreigners 22.36
+9783.12 Foreign women 15.48
+3.33 Independent term
Linear model 4
−365.36 Men aged 70–74 11.78
−320.95 Males from 90 to 94 years old 9.25
+357.47 Foreign-born males 9.36
−356.58 Other foreign women 9.74
+11.85 Independent term
Linear model 5
−122.00 Males from 75 to 79 years old 9.01
+111.32 Males 85–89 years old 9.30
+101.95 Men and women aged 80–84 8.04
−100.25 Foreign-born women 8.22
+0.224 Independent term
526 J. Silva et al.

Table 3 Areas covered by each rule

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5
Municipalities 214 301 685 125 145
Min Habs 4 247 320 4125 354
Max Habs 314 2137 8474 3,352,147 1,758,356
Prom Habs 144.5 714.2 3698.2 37,254.2 9258.1
Dev Habs 78.1 336.3 1114.4 167,195.4 58,392.7
Min Facts 0 0 0 0 0
Max Facts 124 84 463 10,154 821
Prom Facts 2.65 13.42 72.16 501.84 3.02
Dev Facts 4.13 11.32 54.25 747.15 28.26
Min /hab (%) 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Max /hab (%) 29.89 11.10 5.10 7.10 0.60
Max /hab (%) 34.80 35.10 34.70 7.10 1.29
Prom /hab (%) 0.75 0.31 0.20 0.23 0.02
Dev /hab (%) 1.70 0.49 0.35 0.40 0.05

4 Conclusions

In this study, a predictive model was obtained based on Random Forests allowing to
predict the number of criminal acts that are reported to the Guardia Civil annually in
each municipality. The RRSE value achieved is 40.12, but all ensembles give results
that are not very different. The data is used to combine the location of the Guardia
Civil with public data sources (DANE and 2016 electoral data).
A novelty that this work incorporates is the use of electoral data. On the other
hand, the M5Rules discriminated against five groups of municipalities. The first four
groups seem to segment municipalities by size and the fifth one by islands.

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Social Mobilizations as a Silent
Instrument for Seizing Power: The
Ecuadorian Case

Luis Recalde, Marco Antonio Criollo, and María Dolores Santos

Abstract The escalation of violence and democratic fragility is mainly due to the
incidence of external and internal factors including the political, economic and social
that live the world, the region and in particular the country. These factors have led to
the rejection of certain groups antagonistic through social protests, violent acts and
questioning to the incumbent governments, characterized by the use of strategies
(tangible and intangible) and insurgent techniques causing severe effects on the
population, state resources and democratic stability. Analysis of social mobilizations
as an instrument for the seizure of power, the Ecuadorian Case, makes a study from
the world, regional and local perspective. Besides, it analyses some theories, trends
and ideologies that were applied in Ecuador, as tools for destabilizing the government
and finally the possible alternative solutions to avoid weakening a regime.

Keywords Social movements · Democratic stability · Hard power · Soft power

1 Introduction

This last decade the world has suffered a critical irruption of social movements
claiming old aspirations for equality, respect for human rights, gender equity, access
to essential services and technology. Furthermore, the pursuit of peace and security
that guarantees a dignified and equitable life considered as inalienable universal
rights. Events have revealed the evolution of movements and perspectives of social

L. Recalde (B)
Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas—ESPE, 170603 Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
M. A. Criollo
Subsecretaría de Defensa Nacional, 170605 Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]
M. D. Santos
Isocmonitoreo Cía. Ltda., 170603 Quito, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 529
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_46
530 L. Recalde et al.

change, so it is necessary to use new analytical tools to understand the dynamics and
social aspirations of contemporary movements.
The position and nature of social movements in the world are visualized and
radicalized with the rise of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, which is considered as
the first great wave of secular and democratic protests in the world in the twenty-first
century. These protests, of a social nature, spread like wildfire throughout the city
through the European and Asian continents.
In Latin American countries, there have been various mobilizations that maintain
their dynamics and are consistent with political times and events, externalizing great
social unrest in the region. As expected, we find a mix of actors and mobilizations
that have been present for decades in different countries that renew demands and
conflict issues [1].
According to Geoffrey Pleyers, “Latin America has its history, marked by the
strength of indigenous culture and actors, and by the experience of colonization and
its specific challenges; it is also deeply anchored in evermore global history and
circulation of knowledge and actors” [2].
The different mobilizations and protests carried out in the region have demon-
strated the willingness of the social actors to influence, often at a local and sometimes
national level, the decision processes [3]. It could be abstracted that, in many cases,
it seeks to delegitimize representative democracy and try to implement new modes
and areas of citizen participation such as the so-called twenty-first-century social-
ism, trying to modify institutional representation and fundamentally seeking a new
distribution of power.
At the local level, the preponderance of social movements and their increasingly
aggressive irruption in the political landscape have been trying to claim old aspi-
rations for equality and equity in wealth distribution. So it could be said that the
consolidation of democracy still faces significant challenges in Ecuador. There is no
real renewal of the political class and the factional system, nor political practices,
and the rule of law remains weak, allowing corruption and impunity to gain space in
the country’s already cracked democracy.
The present work is based on a cyclical analysis that allows identifying the actors,
tendencies and theories related to social protests in the Andean region and Ecuador in
a particular way that could influence democratic stability. Besides, the present study
aims to propose possible alternatives to avoid or reduce its scope and consequences
of the actions of the social movements, especially in the Ecuadorian case.

2 Analysis of Social Mobilizations

2.1 Current Situation

World Scope The world is in one of the most complex stages in its history; we live in
a context of challenges, paradoxes and contradictions within the new global security
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 531

environment. The emergence of multilateralism and polarities after the fall of the
Berlin Wall, and the attack on the Twin Towers in 2001, have changed in a volatile,
uncertain, complex and ambiguous way (VUCA) [4], the global geopolitical scene,
where the structural changes of the States are evidenced to strengthen the power
relations with the hegemonic blocks based on their particular interests.
The nation-state as a political-legal organization in force since Westphalia in 1648
has replaced the feudal order giving way to territorial organizations defined around
a government that recognizes its limits and spaces of power (sovereignty, territory
and people). This power of the nation-state is being questioned by transversal factors
that affect this structure through globalization, the new geopolitical architecture and
the influence of the powers [5].
Globalization understood as the structural transformation that the world is suf-
fering affects the nation-state through the progressive dissolution of its borders. It
has allowed an unlimited expansion of economic, political, technological, social,
cultural, military activities and communications that directly influence the internal
politics of the States. According to Habermas, it is taking away from the governments
the power to make internal decisions, because other external actors have assumed
the public space of decision [6].
The diversity of state actors, international organizations, supranational organiza-
tions and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) change the power relations and
the territorial perspective of the nation-states, which is further weakened by the cre-
ation of new institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), International
Court of Justice, International Human Rights Courts, World Bank, International Mon-
etary Fund, International Finance Corporation, Inter-American Development Bank,
United Nations, Amnesty International, Greenpeace, etc. Accordingly, the nation-
states are affected in three fundamental aspects, such as the population, the territory
and their sovereignty.
On the other hand, the geopolitical architecture is affected by acts of manifest
rebellion and actions that break the governability. It is causing a crisis on the nation-
state, where the functionality of the State is lost, paralysis on the social welfare and
the institutionalization of democracy. Actions that show the weakening even of the
monopoly of the use of force added to the loss of authority and the preservation
of state order [7]. Non-state or non-governmental actors associated with illicit or
underground economies that act through coercion and violence within illegality are
identified, proclaiming and calling themselves new states. A clear example is the
conformation of the Islamic State (ISIS), within a legally constituted State, with non-
peaceful purposes to impose its ideology based on actions associated with terrorism,
drug trafficking and related crimes with manifest violence [8].
However, these strategic political decisions could be exploited and linked to the
influence of world powers, which took advantage of the instability of states. The high-
lighting actions are generally hegemonic to promote bilateral and multilateral conven-
tions and agreements both in the political, economic and military fields. Therefore,
the nation-state will inevitably be obliged to develop the concept of geo-economics to
achieve relations of powers, since the current world of globalization requires to pre-
serve resources, manage production factors and incorporate to networks to conquer
532 L. Recalde et al.

some market segment. The dispute between geostrategic spaces within the geopolit-
ical game, established especially in the Pacific, considered the centre of the world, is
where the commercial activity of the great hegemonic countries of the world takes
place, within the so-called BRICS, TPP, RCEP, ASEAN and APEC by the USA and
China. It generates spaces of uncertainty since two economic proposals are materi-
alized worldwide, such as the Indo-Pacific initiative and the Strip and the Road [9].
The first to suppress the Chinese hegemony and the second unquestionably consid-
ered the vital space of survival of the Asian giant, generating the existing inequities
within some nation-states by the wrong redistribution of wealth. It has been the spear-
head for the emergence of new actors that taking advantage of globalization and the
impact of the logic of multilateralism and transnationality adopted by emerging and
hegemonic economies such as the USA, China, Russia and Iran in the global context.
They cause destabilization and discomfort to legally constituted governments,
having the Russian influence and participation in the “Caribbean Circle”, formed
by Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela, through the establishment of strategic actions
associated with political, economic and military leadership to guarantee the presence
and control of the communist system in the region [9].
That, according to Antonio Gramsci, is the reflection of the social protest against
the disproportionate intervention of the State through its Armed Forces, which causes
the socialist revolution in the world [10].

Regional Scope Latin America is considered the most violent region in the world, as
well as the one with the greatest social inequality, where the gap between the richest
and the poorest is highly disproportionate, thus demonstrating a poor redistribution
of wealth.
The emergence of new actors associated with illegal mining, drug trafficking and
related crimes, along with corruption through transnational operations such as the
Lavajato or Odebrecht scandal [11], highlights the multidimensionality of crimes in
the present. It evidences the agenda of mafias and associated groups that use the fifth
geopolitical element “cyberspace” [7] as a highway to achieve their dark interests.
In Latin America, the situation does not differ from the other continents, given the
uncertainty, the fragility of political, ideological and commercial initiatives that have
been fractured by global economic instability. The existence of many cooperation
spaces in different fields such as ALBA-TCP, CAN, CELAC, UNASUR, PROSUR,
MERCOSUR, among others, that have not landed in a shared consensus shows the
lack of interest and commitment of the States for maintaining a South American
identity. The countries of the region are currently experiencing problems of similar
characteristics, where social organization prevails through demonstrations and claims
to the current regimes. However, there have been cases of extreme violence used by
insurgent cells whose revolutionary ideology is associated with certain extremist
groups. Nevertheless, they are isolated incidents that cannot be generalized; proof of
this are the following cases in the Andean region:
In Colombia, President Iván Duque promulgated various economic and social
measures that generated great popular discontent, wage and pension reform affected
the youngest. Likewise, the distress escalated due to the breach of the agreements
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 533

of the year 2018 regarding public education and investment in Colciencias (entity
responsible for providing scholarships and research in the country). Finally, for the
right to protest and for excessive of the non-lethal force of the police that is designed
to carry out riot operations (ESMAD), in past marches of university students before
the embezzlement of more than 11 billion pesos by the university education author-
ities. On November 21, the Unitary Central of Workers (CUT) summons a national
strike that had great repercussion and included widespread vandalism. The discon-
tent and unemployment arise against alleged government measures, the application
of the “security and defence policy” and the death of 8 minors in a military opera-
tion, which at the beginning of the month led to the resignation of the Minister of
Defence, Guillermo Botero [12]. Given the violence on Thursday, November 21, the
government decreed the curfew in Bogotá, the capital of the country. The year 2019
closes with a GDP growth of 3.3% year-on-year, above the regional average.
In Peru, President Martín Vizcarra dissolved the National Congress on Septem-
ber 10, 2019, and advanced the parliamentary elections on January 26, 2020 [13]. In
response, the National Congress dismissed him, appointing Vice President Mercedes
Aráoz instead. There were protests and clashes with the police, in support of pres-
idential continuity. The National Police and the Commander in Chief of the Army
spoke in favour of presidential stability. Vizcarra remains with a high level of pop-
ularity because it has promoted a fight against corruption, contrary to the National
Congress that faces the rejection of almost 90% of citizens.
Chile is the country with the most extended duration of the crisis period, which
originated on October 18 following the increase of 30 pesos in the metro ticket, a
measure that was later withdrawn. The middle-class stars in protests in a country
where poverty went from 34.7% in 1987 to 11.7% in 2018; however, Chile is one
of the 15 most unequal countries in the world. The pension system, the costs of
education and the privatization of primary resources (electricity, water and gas) are
the factors that drive the uncertainty of the precarious middle class. At the moment,
the exit to the crisis is sought by the side of a Constitutional Reform. The so-called
Agreement for Social Peace and the inadequate management of the crisis by the
government has encouraged the prolongation and massiveness of the protest [14].
In Bolivia, Evo Morales ignored the result of the referendum of the year 2016
and presented himself to a fourth term, committing fraud to avoid the second elec-
toral round in which he would be defeated. There was a widespread popular revolt,
demanding his resignation. Then, Morales asked for international support and went
into exile to Mexico two days later. From here on out a power vacuum arose, barely
covered by a weak transitional government, who by agreement with the legisla-
ture called elections for 120 days without Evo Morales as a candidate. In the entire
regional process, he is the only President who resigned [15].

Local Scope For our country, the situation is complicated, the economic growth of
2019 was close to 0% year-on-year, while the country is heading to enter the Pacific
Alliance and to meet very demanding productivity and sustainability standards [16].
The main concern is the resolution of internal problems, after the October crisis,
where thousands of people protested against Decree 883 [17], which, according
534 L. Recalde et al.

to them, eliminated fuel subsidies, as part of the agreement reached between the
Ecuadorian government and the International Monetary Fund [18].
The so-called crisis is not only based on the reduced thinking of the product of
the Sao Paulo Forum, but of other actions that have the particularity in each State,
and in the case of Ecuador, the incidence of new social actors that have caused
the democratic fragmentation in Latin America. It is a regional relevance issue that
should be analysed in depth within the influence of the States [19].
On October 13, President Lenin Moreno repealed Decree 883 at a dialogue table
[17]. Among the events that took place during the protest, the relevant ones were:
the burning of the General Comptroller’s Office of the State, where the judicial files
on corruption acts of Correa administration [20], and the attacked to Teleamazonas
facilities in Quito by a group of vandals [21]. During the protests, organized violent
actions were evidenced, to challenge the State, threatening public order and citizen
security. Groups contrary to the regime called for the President of the Republic to
resign, evidencing an attempted coup d’etat. The information war was of various
kinds.
The participation of the Armed Forces in the October 2019 crisis was decisive,
effectively fulfilling the military objective imposed by the political party, based on
constitutional norms and preserving the security of the population and resources.
The actions that derive from the use of the Armed Forces were framed to the strict
fulfilment of Human Rights and national and international protocols, within contrary
actions by protesters that led to chaos, where it was intended to delegitimize and
provoke the State, taking advantage of the social upheaval [22].
Based on the information provided by the Ministry of Government [23], the actors
of the escalation of violence during the last national strike, completed five phases,
clearly established as they are: (1) Start of the transport guild protests [24]. (2)
Declaration of the State of exception by CONAIE [24]. (3) Escalation of the crisis:
increased violence. Attack on military barracks of La Balbina, San Jorge, University
of the Armed Forces [25]. (4) Kidnapping military, police, provincial and cantonal
authorities, the fire of the State (Comptroller) and Private infrastructure (Teleama-
zonas and El Comercio) [25]. (5) The outcome, where the negotiation took place
through the OAS [26].

3 Theories, Trends and Ideologies

3.1 The Theory of Revolution and Social Emancipation

for John Holloway

It theorizes the rejection of the capitalist world that considers it intolerable because
it destroys humanity. The revolution is not in the seizure of the State, but rather in
the daily acts of rejection and organization against capitalist society, which is called
anti-power [27]. Among the most remarkable ideas of this theory, we have:
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 535

1. The scream: It is the fury externalized against the system and the dominant social
forms. It is the recognition of an alternative.
2. Power-over: It is what dominates and subjugates the human creative possibility.
The State, as a power-over, is a capitalist form of domination and, therefore,
unable to become the middle of the revolution.
3. Power-to: It is the creative human power (Potentia). Recover the centrality of
human doing against the world that denies this human doing.
4. Identity, non-identity and subjectivity: Identity is something that the capitalist
social system imposes on people to assign them a function and thus establishes its
power-over. Holloway observes that power-to is a force that could be identified
within non-identity. Thus, for Holloway, subjectivity manifests itself in non-
identity.
Application Starting from the analysis of the use of Holloway’s theory during the
strike in Ecuador, it can be inferred that they used the theory of the scream, when
manifesting widespread popular discontent and asking for an alternative to Decree
883. The measures taken by the State impose power over, as a capitalist form of
domination; therefore, the protesters requested the centrality of human activity to be
recovered as a reference object of the State. These actions were also used in Colombia,
Chile and Bolivia, among the various social sectors (indigenous, workers, students,
etc.). It was against the government, through demonstrations attributed that the State
does not give them an identity, because it limits their actions and imposes power over
the people with these common measures in the Andean region especially.
The application of the theory of revolution and social emancipation is materialized
in the planning and execution of public and private meetings to convene marches and
mobilizations at local and national levels. Likewise, the use of active non-violence
and obedience to leaders in demonstrations to have the expected success was the
common factor since they contributed to the taking of their planned objectives based
on actions in some peaceful cases.
The groups led by the indigenous leaders employed actions duly agreed with the
leaders, to cause fear in people who do not directly support the mobilizations, through
the suspension or fine for the use of essential community goods and services. Acts
that promoted disobedience of the protesters against the legitimate State authority,
in the conspiracy of its leaders and sowing chaos.

3.2 The Policy of Non-violent Action of Gene Elmert Sharp

The author embodied in his book “The non-violent political struggle: criteria and
methods” that raises the use of citizen power to counteract a conflict that affects them,
as a way to resist that they consider dictatorships and to cause weakening of a regime.
The theory of non-violence is based on two premises: the first, active non-violence
as an instrument of struggle and social mobilization; and second, the entire power
structure is based on the obedience of the subjects to the orders of their leaders [28].
536 L. Recalde et al.

Under the first premise non-violent action is divided into three stages: protest
and persuasion (symbolic actions), non-cooperation (customer boycotts); and the
intervention (disturb the natural development, take entities and carry out blockages).
According to the second premise, every power structure is based on the obedience
of the subjects to the orders of the leaders. The individuals recognize that they are
the source of state power; by rejecting obedience, its leaders will be left without that
power. The use of violence as a form of repression by the State in the face of non-
violent resistance contributes to the reduction of its power, authority and legitimacy
[28].

Application Carrying out the analysis of the use of Sharp’s non-violent action theory
is evidenced in the rejection of citizenship to the government for economic measures
due to the impact on the family economy. For 11 days, the citizens carried out
daily acts of rejection of non-violent action against government measures indicating
that they were capitalist measures and affected the most impoverished sectors. The
common factor in the mobilizations was protest and persuasion, as Sharp points out,
with symbolic actions revealed in mass meetings, especially in Quito, subsequently
applied nationwide.
General actions were combined in the indigenous communities associated with
non-cooperation and generating acts against consumers to achieve better results and
trying to avoid the supply of products. The intervention: actions to disrupt the normal
development of activities such as the taking of governments, strategic areas, essential
services and road blockades. Finally, they identified that the strength of the State
rests in the FF. AA and PP. NN and that these could not be used violently with lethal
weaponry.

3.3 The Forms of Power of Joseph Nye

Nye developed the concept of “Smart Power” or intelligent power, which is the
use of a mixture of hard power (coercion and purchase) and soft power (attraction
and persuasion) in the strategies used by the States to obtain their objectives. This
concept has been applied in international relations to analyse the scope of the powers
and their influence on the global system. The difference between soft power and
intelligent power is that the first one can be harmful or beneficial depending on how
it is used, while the second evaluates the application of soft power, thus improving
the effectiveness of the strategy applied [29].
Based on the ideas expressed by Nye, it is difficult to establish an agreement
that power over man is always distinguishable from the one over things, for this
social power is a thing or its possession is a relationship between men. Likewise, he
recognizes that none of the types of power can solve all problems. However, there
are two countries that align with the forms of power described: USA (hard power)
and China (soft power and intelligent power) [29].
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 537

Application It is important to highlight that in our analysis this theory has a logical
application in international relations; it can be argued that the groups involved in the
demonstrations used soft power actions to persuade both the non-involved population
and the government actors themselves and thus obtain their objectives. Also, it is
presumed that they allowed personal infiltration that carried out violent actions such
as the use of hard power.
Similarly, the use of soft power by the powers in the countries in question can be
adduced, not necessarily to overthrow governments, but to discredit internationally
governments that are aligned with their rival powers. This was evidenced in TV
channels such as TeleSur and Russia Today that showed the demonstrations from the
streets and Protestant groups.

4 Possible Alternative Solutions: Ecuador Case

4.1 Political Field

1. Develop and maintain a comprehensive national and international State politi-

cal strategy, which allows several sides to keep the country’s governance and
credibility with the other actors of the international system.
2. The Central Government must enforce the law based on the correct application
of the Republic Constitution and the national and international legal rules, as
well as in case of being required using the legitimate monopoly of force.
3. Establish new cooperation agreements, mainly oriented towards strategic inser-
tion within the Pacific context, whether linked to the Indo-Pacific strategy pro-
mulgated by the USA, or to the Strip and Route enacted by the People’s Republic
of China.
4. Strengthen the international participation of Ecuador in the Organization of
American States OAS, considered as a political forum for decision-making,
multilateral dialogue and the integration of America.
5. Spread through the official channels and mass media the real situation that
the Ecuadorian State is going through, to improve the international image, and
allow to be re-established bilateral, multilateral and supranational cooperation
agreements.
6. Review bilateral agreements in coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
and Human Mobility, according to the needs of the Ecuadorian State.
7. Carry out a Constitution amendment, establishing the real needs of the Ecuado-
rian State. For this reasons, multidisciplinary and specialized teams must be
formed, linked with all the actors of the society, keeping gender equity to pro-
vide facilities and guarantees so that within a space of reflection they generate a
legal norm of State and not of government.
538 L. Recalde et al.

8. Reform the National Electoral Council, and enact a law for the formation of polit-
ical parties and movements under the fulfilment of strict and verifiable require-
ments, for which a close link must be maintained with the relevant State agencies,
especially in economic and legal matters.

4.2 Legal Field

1. Make amendments to the Constitution that support the actions of the Armed
Forces in the area of insurgency.
2. Include the terminology relevant to the insurgency in the Comprehensive Organic
Criminal Code to support the prosecution of cases.
3. Update the Public and State Security Law, and other legal instruments with the
new insurgency terminology.
4. Modifications to the Public and State Security Law and the Comprehensive Crim-
inal Code are required to support the actions of the Armed Forces in compliance
with its constitutional mission.
5. Redefine the role of the Armed Forces since according to the Republic Constitu-
tion, they have the mission to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of
the State and the internal sphere that is the responsibility of the National Police.

4.3 Educational Field

Starting from the logic that education provides identity to the people. Based on the
reality that our country lives, the evident crisis of values that has an impact on the
disrespect for the laws, rights and obligations of citizens, provoking a high rate of
violence, intolerance of authority, people and nature, in this context the following
proposals should be included:
1. It is necessary to perform an analysis to identify the variables of social fabric
breakdown in the country and thus implement appropriate actions, mainly in the
educational field.
2. Empower the sense of belonging of society, through the promotion of values,
principles and national identity at all educational levels.
3. Foster military, civil relations, through the application of institutional, edu-
cational projects in areas such as development support and voluntary student
military training and resistance forces.
4. Redesign the curriculum of the entire Ecuadorian education system (primary,
basic, third and fourth levels), where the subjects of moral and civic, national
and ethical reality are resumed, to provide students with a baseline for their
training as good citizens.
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 539

4.4 Field of Defence

1. The State does not own or implement the concept of critical infrastructure;
therefore, it is necessary to translate this concept into the legal regulations of
the security and defence sector. Likewise, the survey and detailed cataloguing
of the critical infrastructure (physical and digital) of the State must be carried
out to update and prioritize security, control and monitoring.
2. FFAA fulfils the mission of protection of the reserved areas, having to verify
the zones and areas that need to be included so that contingency plans will be
activated with public institutions (GAD’S) and civil society actors.
3. Create a doctrine, to face social crises in the internal area; as well as the inclusion
of military training and training at a strategic and operational level for the use
of Armed Forces in the internal sphere.
4. Strengthen the intelligence system (CIES) and its subsystems (military and
police intelligence), especially in the analysis, acquisition and timely dissemi-
nation of strategic intelligence.
5. Reduce the incidence of external threats through the implementation of interin-
stitutional strategies and address threats of an inner nature through policies that
involve public institutions.
6. Project the image of the Armed Forces outside the scope of force, coercion and
violence, working in cooperation with the actors of the society and not on them.
7. Update the White Paper on Defence and redefine the real threats and risks to
generate doctrine and planning at the strategic military levels, with a strategic
vision of the danger.
8. Propose to the Legislative the reforms to the Laws referring to the Progressive
Use of Force as well as the use of lethal armament in case they exceed the
escalation of the crisis and become acts of terrorism motivated by the insurgency.
This legal framework will protect the actions of the Armed Forces and the
monopoly of the use of force to safeguard the infrastructure of the State, maintain
and preserve the social order, the law regulating the life of the State.
9. Update the Military Defence Directive that integrates the new threats and allows
increasing the training of the Armed Forces with techniques used in other
countries, the principle of CRISIS MANAGEMENT to prevent escalation.
10. The capabilities of the Armed Forces have to be strengthened through the assign-
ment of economic resources by the State to equip the Armed Forces with arma-
ment and AC equipment to face the social crisis and new threats. It also has to
consider the acquisition of weapons of mass neutralization, drones, for example,
sound cannons used in Spain, among others.
11. Promote the development of the relationship of the Armed Forces with the com-
munity in the educational, technological, research and social fields, to maintain
the image of the Armed Forces cohesive with civil society (recover the leaders’
seedbeds that were the COMILES, to recover institutions of higher education
like the ESPE—IAEN). The reserve is a crucial strategy to win followers and
also the resistance forces.
540 L. Recalde et al.

12. Urgently implement the active and passive real cyber defence project to avoid
being the target of cyber tacks, hacks, fakes news, social networks of false
information that flooded with the uneasiness of the population.
13. Cohesion members of the Armed Forces and detach infiltrated corrupted mem-
bers (FFAA clearance); improve recruitment and selection processes to enter
the Military Schools for training both officers and troops, analyse the gratuity
to have more suitable personnel based on profiles.
14. Update and approve the Armed Forces personnel directory to have staff with
the appropriate profile.
15. Analyse the creation of defence in social networks and trends (trolls, cyber-
war) to face media power. This organization should be formed by sections
anti-cyber-attacks, social network management, hackers, video surveillance,
drones, electronic warfare passive, knowledge of the organization of the threat,
signal blockers (inhibitors), anti-fakes (information operations), interception,
cancellation of false accounts, source validation, cybersecurity, among others.

4.5 Economic Field

While the fragility of the world economy can be mainly attributed to deliberate
political decisions, it also reflects more considerable structural changes, according
to the perspectives report. Digitization is transforming business models, while climate
and demographic changes are already altering existing activity patterns [24].
Countries must develop fiscal incentives to achieve greater equality and to encour-
age the middle class to maintain more financial assets. They should also implement
higher inheritance taxes for the very rich, improve free public education and establish
electoral campaigns financed with public funds.
For our Ecuadorian case, the following strategies should be included:
1. Implement an alternative solution that involves all citizens, both in the public
and private contexts. Understanding that economic measures are not a whim of
the government, but is the necessary and immediate solution that is required to
put a stop to the current weak economy.
2. The Ecuadorian fiscal situation is difficult, especially with the existing structure
of public debt (with high interest and short payment terms). In this sense, new
fiscal devaluation measures must be proposed, for which the involvement of the
people with the national government is required to recover the pace of economic
growth.
3. Achieving a financial balance will mean giving into the demands of the popula-
tion, especially on incentives to increase competitiveness for exporters and their
alliances, as well as for small- and medium-sized businesses, to strengthen tax
issues, reduction of procedures, and facilities for hiring staff.
4. The Ecuadorian economy cannot continue to sustain itself at the cost of a higher
level of indebtedness. Therefore, a fiscal consolidation program that is gradual
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 541

and credible is required to optimize public spending and increase spaces for
private investment, especially with public–private alliances.
5. In addition to having a strict policy of economic austerity, except for priority
fields such as health, education, energy and security, the most feasible solution
will be the involvement of private company participation, as well as increased
exports of no oil products.
6. The increase in competitiveness and a higher opening of markets for exports is
an urgent and priority matter, so the elimination of the advance to the income
tax (IR) should be analysed, since the aspect will benefit especially agricultural
sectors such as the cocoa and coffee sector.
7. The participation of Ecuador within the international context should be strength-
ened with its presence in the Pacific Alliance, not only for commercial benefits,
such as customs cooperation, zero tariffs and free mobility of goods and services
but also for financial integration, which will allow accessing the bond regional
catastrophic risk management for mitigating the impact of natural disasters on
public finances.

5 Conclusions

Within the international context, there is a common problem, “the economic one”,
whose particularity expands towards Latin America and Ecuador. The high indebt-
edness of the States requires governments to execute structural adjustment policies,
being forced to finance loans to pay the interest generated or part of the debt, becom-
ing cyclical and impossible to solve. However, these decisions can be tough for the
general public.
As demonstrated in Latin America, despite presenting different solution strategies,
the massive demand of the citizens for the antipopular measures, for the abuse of
power and the freedom of expression remains. Manifestations that, based on the
ideologies and proposals by the authors mentioned above, could be found aligned as
a whole. It should be mentioned that the origin of the claims depends exclusively on
the national identity, evidencing that the Andean societies are fractured.
In Ecuador, the indigenous component was the majority, with a strong organiza-
tional and assembly tone. The indigenous movement, loaded with naivety, was pen-
etrated by the correísmo that mounted their interests inside the mobilization without
bearing the overall weight of the protest.
In the region, the rulers who no longer belong mostly to the political line of the
previous extended and stable democratic processes tend to organize their cabinets
with experienced people. However, some political-ideological lags remain, which
keeps latent the look of citizens who expect a radical change from their presidents.
The crisis experienced by the left, especially in Ecuador, contributed to the ideological
fracture of the people, who look with uncertainty at the behaviour of their leaders
and what leads to un-governability in the countries of the region.
542 L. Recalde et al.

Below, the most important aspects of being considered are detailed:

(a) The protests that were carried out in the region are a sign of discontent against
the policies adopted by the governments of the left or right. It is discontent with
governments that have stagnated in a certain form of growth management.
(b) Long-term governments, some transferred to recent mandates. Evo Morales
(14 years old). Rafael Correa (10 years old). Juan Manuel Santos (8 years old).
In Brazil (13 years), in Argentina, “Kirchnerism” ruled 12 years (2003–2015).
(c) The critical role of the Forum of Sao Paulo and retreating leaderships (Evo
Morales, Lula da Silva, José Mujica, Cristina Kirchner, Dilma Rousseff and
Rafael Correa) has been demonstrated. Operating jointly, in the rebellions in
the countries named above, where the collaboration of Venezuelan citizens for
the maintenance of protestors’ cells in the region is a particular feature.
(d) The Puebla Group and its belligerent speech against the USA, although there is
no real political coincidence between presidents or political leaders with gov-
ernment command “affiliated” to Puebla with their ideas and programs. It should
be noted that this group is associated with the Sao Paulo group because of the
political ideology that both handled. In this case, the left represented by several
former presidents intends to be partakers of the peoples’ decisions. However,
their participation remains in doubt because there has been no evidence related
to their aspirations.
(e) The mobilizations share an indigenous and native peoples rescue speech, even if
the presence of this group is uneven or non-existent in each country. The political
existence of the classical left is practically nil since the left has split. For example,
in the Ecuadorian case, several tendencies associated with radical “correismo”
and traditional “correismo”, the first entrenched in the Metropolitan Council of
Quito and the second that they make his political career taking advantage of the
national situation.
(f) There is a strong presence of drug trafficking in the region, particularly in
Ecuador, which is in the middle of the two main coca producers in the world
(cocaine production; alkaloid storage and main traffic route to the Pacific).
(g) Chile, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador maintain a close relationship with
the USA, as the main strategic partner for the development of projects of various
kinds, such as aid to the fight against drug trafficking in Colombia, support for
security and defence in Ecuador, support economic in the case of Chile, etc.
(h) On the use of the theories, tendencies and ideologies used in the protests, the fol-
lowing can be inferred: The existence of internal and external actors of various
political ideologies and subideologies were characterized by the active partici-
pation of the social movements represented mostly by workers, indigenous peo-
ple, students and movements that represent minorities; who label their respective
governments to use state power disproportionately through the indiscriminate
use of the Armed Forces and National Police.
Social Mobilizations as a Silent Instrument for Seizing Power … 543

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The Armed Forces as a Immediate
Response State Institution and Its
Participation as an Articulator
in the Risk Management in Ecuador

Víctor Yépez, Jorge Toledo, and Theofilos Toulkeridis

Abstract The Ecuadorian Armed Forces have their constitutional mission as indi-
cated in Art. No. 158 of the Constitution of Ecuador. Its human conformation, its
technological resources, its equipment and training provide special features such
as flexibility, opportunity, scope, speed and efficiency, which all are essential when
reacting to a risk situation. As a support and reaction institution to deal with hazards
and risks in the national territory in front of multiple existing scenarios, the Army pro-
vides experience, equipment and capabilities in the field of risk management. With
this base, the military plans are elaborated next to other state institutions respon-
sible for the prevention, reaction and mitigation of the effects produced by natural
and anthropic disasters. The last high-magnitude earthquake occurred on April 16
of 2016, allowed to identify the need to know the components of the State based on
possible natural hazards. The way to exploit the resources of these components and
their distribution in case of emergencies in natural scenarios has been decisive, prior
to a decision-making process that optimizes mitigation work of damages. Finally, the
Armed Forces at present collaborate with their contingent in the creation of databases
on information collected during emergencies, in order to transmit it as inputs as a
pertinent corrective measure and perform it into doctrine and plans that facilitate
logistical displacement and mobilization of a large military contingent guarantying
the security of the population.

Keywords Natural disasters · Armed Forces · Risk management · Early response

policies · Databases

1 Introduction

In Ecuador, support against disasters of natural origin has its foundation from the
creation of its Armed Forces, with a basically decisive non-preventive behavior. Their

V. Yépez (B) · J. Toledo · T. Toulkeridis

Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 545
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8_47
546 V. Yépez et al.

employment is a reactive response to the crisis as a result of the disaster, rather than
in their anticipation, as this is an issue of other state institutions.
Until the 50s of the last century, Ecuador lacked of a specialized institution to
deal with the issues that affected the population by disasters of natural origin. In
1941, the Ecuadorian-Peruvian war forced to evacuate the habitants of the border
and take refuge farer away from the conflict, causing alteration in the lives of the
mobilized people [1]. Little later, the Pelileo’s earthquake of 1949 left some 6000
victims [2, 3]. With both experiences, in 1960 the National Defense Law was issued
with the assignment of responsibilities to an institution called Civil Defense, which
has been attached to the Military Sector, having a vision of preventing situations
arising from an international war [4]. In 1964, the National Security Law was issued,
in which the National Civil Defense System was organized and linked to the General
Secretariat of the National Security Council, the latter as a permanent advisory body
and dependent on the Presidency of the Republic, whose leadership falls to an active
duty officer, in the rank of General of the Armed Forces [5].
The process to institutionalize a disaster prevention and care agency has been
very extensive, which has led that in 1973 the National Civil Defense Directorate was
created, being in charge of training the population and reacting to an adverse event, in
coordination with the National Mobilization Directorate [6]. Although the authorities
have been civil and military, they were chaired by an officer of the Armed Forces.
With time management becomes decentralized through the Citizen Security, while
the Civil Defense boards at the parish and cantonal level, allocating mobilization and
security functions with members of the Public Force within the national territory. In
the National Security Law of 1996, its mission is determined in article No. 82 as “a
permanent service activity of the State in favor of the community.” It also mentions
that it coordinates the measures “to allow the continuity of the administrative and
functional regime in all orders of activity” [7].
Due to the political changes in the southern hemisphere, Ecuador modified its
constitution in 2008 [8], which subsequently created a “Decentralized National Sys-
tem of Risk Management” (SNDGR) having as an executive body the Secretariat of
Risk Management (SGR), whose authorities are civil citizens performing the relevant
coordination with the Armed Forces in cases of emergency and national commotion,
such as the volcanic crisis of Cotopaxi volcano in 2015 or by the Earthquake on
April 16, 2016 [9–13]. Within the same time frame, in 2011 the Integrated Security
Service ECU911 was created, being a technological tool, which integrates the emer-
gency services provided by fire departments, the Armed Forces, the National Police
and Institutions that compose the National Health System [14].
Currently, the SGR modified its structure through the Executive Decree No. 534
of October 3, 2018, converting into the National Risk and Emergency Management
Service [15, 16]. In addition, the Committee of the National Risk and Emergency
Management Service is created, which shall be permanently formed by the chair-
ing President of the Republic or his permanent delegate, the National Secretary of
Planning and Development or his permanent delegate, the Minister of Urban Devel-
opment and Housing or his permanent delegate, the Minister of National Defense or
its permanent delegate and the Minister of Economy and Finance or its permanent
The Armed Forces as a Immediate Response … 547

delegate. As noted, the importance of keeping the Armed Forces linked to risk man-
agement is due to national objectives and strict compliance with the Constitution of
Ecuador.

2 Analysis of the Situation of Risks, Threats and Dangers

in Ecuador

Ecuador is geographically located in a privileged area of the globe. Its location,

while providing beneficial features such as diverse climates, extensive vegetation,
large water resources, fertile soils and beautiful landscapes [17]. Ecuador is situated
in an evolving geodynamic setting, resulting into various chains of erupting volca-
noes and their associated hazards being part of the Pacific’s ring of fire, permanent
seismic activity as expressed by the presence of an enormous amount of geolog-
ical faults including the Guayaquil—Caracas Mega fault, which is aligned along
many important cities, the high potential of tsunamis as well as unstable areas with
corresponding mass movements, rockfalls and landslides [18–34]. All these afore-
mentioned hazards of geological origin together with a variety of hazards resulting
from hydro-meteorological and atmospheric processes which lead to forest fires,
flooding, river overflows and hydric deficits among others increase the vulnerability
and risks for an unprepared society [35].
With these considerations, the Ecuadorian State conducts its planning, with respect
to risk management, while the corresponding authorized institutions and hereby pre-
dominantly the Armed Forces as well as the National Service of Risk and Emergency
Management, correspond to the measures in dealing with disasters of anthropic and
natural origin. The impact of disasters is mainly determined by factors affecting
human groups or settlements, strategic structures and areas from which resources
are obtained.
The disaster is the result of the crisis resulting from a catastrophe, which increases
due to the vulnerabilities of the areas of influence; however, by maintaining an ade-
quate response to counteract the harmful effects of the two parameters, the degree
of the disaster is reduced [36]. In this way, the magnitude of the disaster may be
determined, using the following equation:

Disaster = Vulnerability + Catastrophe − Coping Strategies

However, when analyzing the “Coping Strategies,” it strictly circumscribes the

possibility of the state to mitigate, remedy and neutralize the multiplier effects of a
potential disaster. In this context, the Armed Forces plan together with other state
security institutions, strategies that reduce the risks of any disaster. Hereby, immedi-
ate response and logistic capabilities are fundamental factors for emergency planning
and subsequent execution. Subsequently, the question arises about the identification
about the leading institution and its corresponding responsibility of the protection
against an eventual catastrophe. Therefore, the existence of a state administration
548 V. Yépez et al.

figure with such competence is explained. However, a further issue arises when the
emergency exceeds the capacity of resources of any kind of the organism. What
happens? Is support sought in other state institutions? Is help sought in interna-
tional organizations? Hence, the armed arm of the State becomes involved in the
organization, planning and execution of risk management activities.

3 Intervention of the Armed Forces of Ecuador in Risk

Management

The Armed Forces constitute the executing arm of the security and defense policies
that the State plans. Therefore, the use of the Armed Forces is the very use of state
resources to anticipate, confront, remedy or mitigate the hazards and risks that poten-
tially influence or alter the Nation. The Ecuadorian Armed Forces have a particular
organization to fulfill their missions, assigning responsibility areas corresponding
to the magnitude of the employment units, so that a platoon may have under its
competence a parish and a division to be in charge of a set of provinces. Accord-
ingly, the organization of the Armed Forces requires that its lines of command and
communication be vertical (from larger to subordinate units and vice versa) and also
horizontal (between units of similar magnitude). In the same way, the planning has
levels adequately distributed by its areas of influence, as follows: The strategic level
refers to the national level (Armed Forces), the operational level to the province or
similar scope (division and brigade) and the tactical level to the scope of cantons or
parishes (battalion, company and platoon). Each level is important for the parameters
they evaluate, being the tactical level the one that has the greatest demand for the
details of execution and the strategic level for obtaining resources to allocate in the
subordinate levels. In this sense, institutional planning is related to inter-institutional
planning with the Committee of the National Risk and Emergency Management
Service. The Armed Forces also consider: “Self-protection against emergencies and
disasters, both in relation to the care of the staff of the Institution and its assets; and,
inter-institutional coordination for the management of external risks in relation to
the analysis, reduction, response and recovery, within its scope of action.” [37].

3.1 Legal Framework for the Use of the Armed Forces

in Support Operations for the National Risk
and Emergency Management Service

Article No. 158 of the Constitution of Ecuador mentions the fundamental mission
of the Armed Forces verbatim: “The Armed Forces have as a fundamental mission
the defense of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” establishing an explicit task.
The state of exception conceived as “a legal, constitutional and political mechanism
that allows the restoration of public order in extraordinary circumstances in order
to guarantee constitutional rights, democracy and the rule of law” [38]. Under the
The Armed Forces as a Immediate Response … 549

decree of a state of exception, the President of the Republic authorizes the use of
the Armed Forces in the terms set forth in the Constitution, in accordance with the
provisions of articles No. 164 and 165. It follows that his employment in supporting
risk management, as a complementary activity, but no less important. Therefore, they
continue to fulfill their fundamental mission, while contributing to the missions of
other State agencies.
The Public and State Security Law, in its art. 34, “Of the coordination in case
of natural disasters,” indicates: “The agency responsible for Civil Defense will act
in coordination with the decentralized autonomous governments and civil society,
will also have the support of the Armed Forces and other agencies necessary for
the prevention and protection of security, will implement prevention and mitigation
measures necessary to face them and minimize their impact on the population” [39].

3.2 The Employment of the Armed Forces of Ecuador

During Emergencies Due to Disasters or Catastrophes

The Armed Forces, immediately after issuing the Executive Decree of a state of
emergency, implement the plans to support risk management, transforming them
into operations orders. The mobilization of military personnel is arranged according
to strategic planning, without neglecting their fundamental mission.
During the post-earthquake process of the emergency of the Pedernales Earth-
quake of 2016, the Armed Forces participated mainly in the working group No. 5
“Integral Population Security” organized by the SGR. However, as previously men-
tioned, the logistics and training of military personnel empowered them to collaborate
in all the working groups. Hereby, Table 1 lists a summary of the actions performed
during and details of their participation in the SGR working groups.
In order to operationalize the tasks deducted from the mission imposed [40], the
following stages are established:
1. Action and response: with the subtasks of security and control of the population
and resources; search, rescue and evacuation; safety of vital areas and strategic
points; water and food distribution.
2. Remediation: with the subtasks of security and control of the population and
resources; search, rescue and evacuation; safety of vital areas; collection and
distribution of humanitarian aid; production and distribution of water; dam-
age assessment; removal of debris; shelter implementation and administration;
medical care and sanitation.
3. Return to Normality: with subtasks of transition of responsibilities to State
institutions and other support agencies; reconstruction support; development of
scientific research in all areas of earthquake influence.
Responsible planning in the fulfillment of the constitutional missions by the
Armed Forces has been the main motives in the presence of the State in the most
distant areas of the Country. Within this framework, security and development sup-
port activities have been those that have defined the aspects of relief and assistance
550 V. Yépez et al.

Table 1 Armed Forces participation in the technical working groups in the SNGR
W.G.W. G. Technical Working Group Actions executed
working group
1 Water access and distribut Water purification systems
ion
2 Health, sanitation and hygi Armed Forces mobile surgical hospital,
ene promotion medical staff
3 Infrastructure, reconstructio Initial risk assessment
n and rehabilitation Debris removal, topograph
ic surveys, rescue support,
water purification
Demolition of structures at
risk
Reconstruction of main and
alternate roads, landslide
cleaning
4 Comprehensive attention to Platform construction, shelt
the population er installation, repair and
replacement of basic
services infrastructure
Hostels and shelters
avtivated
5 Comprehensive population security Search and rescue, hostel
security, strategic sectors,
standing and mobile
hospitals
Land, air and maritime tran
sport of humanitarian aid a
nd distribution of humanitar
ian aid
6 Productivity and livelihoods Security patrols,
management and security
of collection centers
7 Education, culture, heritage Community protection and
and environment the removal of effects on
the educational structure
8 Strategic sectors Supervision of the hydroca
rbon sector (heavy oil pipel
ine, refineries, dams and
reservoirs)

in the national coexistence newspaper and provide a link between the citizen and the
government.

3.3 The Special and Technical Units of the Armed Forces

of Ecuador in Support of Risk Management

The Armed Forces have specialized military units for technical and special support
for operations. These military units conduct missions in times of peace and war,
which allows integration into national risk management systems during emergencies
[41]. The Army Corps of Engineers (CEE) as the main executor of civil, road and san-
itary works, providing technical support to military operations in terms of mobility
(roads, airports, heliports and seaports), counter mobility (demolition and destruction
The Armed Forces as a Immediate Response … 551

of roads and bridges), survival (camp construction) as well as engineering in general

(water points). The Military Geographic Institute (IGM) performs the geographical
survey and produces thematic maps of the affected areas (buildings, bridges, water
systems, etc.). The Oceanographic Institute of the Navy (INOCAR) disseminates
real-time information on the effects in the coastal area on possible tsunamis and pos-
sible tidal distortions. The Peace Missions School Unit (UEMPE) with its experience
for disaster management in the missions has performed a variety of tasks such as
the mission to support the reconstruction of Haiti–Ecuador (MARHEC), the mis-
sion to support the rehabilitation and construction of Cuba (MARSECH), the bridge
reconstruction mission for development in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, pro-
viding advice for the management, planning and administration of shelters. Finally,
the Armed Forces University ESPE promotes scientific research and performs infor-
mation gathering and processing in order to create technical documents and improve
the decision-making process.
4 Characteristics of the Armed Forces of Ecuador in Risk
Management

The scientific technical work deployed by the Armed Forces [42] allows to identify
the following characteristics for its use, such as:
• It is essential to have self-sustaining military units.
• The logistics of military personnel must be individual and try to keep a supply of
food rations that allow them to remain in the sector for the necessary time until
they receive supplies, as the affectation of the zone produces the collapse of the
basic services.
• The digital, cartographic and satellite information provided by the IGM is essential
for the planning and development of operations.
• Technical military units must remain at the forefront of technology and science
to provide the required support in operations in the decision-making process.
• Population security, public service facilities and strategic facilities are the priority
for the Armed Forces.
• The plans must be verified periodically, as the conditions change eventually by
the obtained information.
• The stop periods for the employed personnel improve the performance, since the
situations of psychological and physical pressure in the operations of support to
the risk management have a high level of requirement.
• Keeping informed, the military personnel employed reduces the anxiety caused
by situations of danger and risk in the tasks of support to risk management.
• The information needs to be inter-agency and timely as efforts must be directed
toward common objectives.
• Military personnel and those of risk management support entities, they cannot
be considered as victims, in order to prioritize support for people affected by
disasters.
552 V. Yépez et al.

• Military logistics do not have a specific destination for risk management support,
hence the importance that government agencies have the means and resources for
risk prevention and remediation.
• The aircraft of all State entities must be arranged as a whole to avoid gaps in the
distribution and transportation of logistics and support personnel.
• International and private cooperation is essential; it should be emphasized because
the relations that are maintained with the UN and the OAS strengthen the SNGRE.
Therefore, humanitarian action is integral.

5 Conclusions

The participation of the Armed Forces in support of risk management is due to

a constitutional framework and legal requirements, not only to the principles of
service and protection of the Ecuadorian conglomerate. The military personnel will
be employed in support to risk management tasks arranged according to strategic
planning, without neglecting their fundamental mission.
The effective deployment of military personnel in the area of influence of the
disaster will guarantee the reduction of the effects of the disaster and require a very
fast and precise technical employment with tools and supplies that allow to locate,
access and rescue the victims and reorganize population in safe areas.
Although the planning and establishment of disaster management policies comes
from the State, the execution is expressly of the military command in conjunction
with the management body of risk management. This ensures that the articulation of
procedures at all levels allows global dissemination in the deployment area. It also
facilitates communications with certainty of its transmission to discover vulnerabil-
ities in humanitarian aid operations. And with that, the feedback of what happens
at the site of the crisis so that the higher levels can reformulate the policies and
procedures.
The political organization of Ecuador shows that activities at all stages of risk
management must be linked to the Armed Forces with the objective of maintaining
an immediate reaction and the mobilization of relevant resources to reduce the effects
of the emergency and maintain the operation of government institutions in order to
enter the normal phase in the shortest time.

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Author Index

A Caiza, Gustavo, 199

Abad, Isabel, 305 Caiza, Orlando, 75
Aguilar, Wilbert G., 45, 55, 65, 75, 89, 101 Caiza, Pablo, 353
Ahumada, Bridy, 259 Calderón, Marco, 55, 65, 89, 101
Alban, Itaty, 343 Carrera, Alexis, 101
Albán, Pablo, 45, 75, 331, 343, 363 Chavez, Danilo, 431
Alexandra, Albán Rocha Gina, 189 Cofre, Shakira, 343
Almeida, Víctor, 237 Criollo, Marco Antonio, 529
Alpaca, Norka Bedregal, 211 Crissien, Tito, 159
Altamirano, Carlos Daniel, 319 Cruz, Henry, 111
Alvarez, Jorge Damian, 331 Cueto, Eduardo Nicolas, 399
Alvarez-Montenegro, Dalia, 199
Álvarez, Vladimir, 409
Amaguaña, Fabricio, 65 D
Araya, Guillermo, 149 Díaz, Andrea, 251
Arcentales, Isabel, 353 Díaz, Eleazar, 251
Asimbaya, Israel, 45
Augusto, Maria Fernanda, 473
Aules, Hernán, 123 E
Efrain, Paredes Viteri Santiago, 189
Escobar-Naranjo, Juan, 199
B
Barragán, Santiago, 319
Barra, Lucy Delgado, 211 F
Barrantes, Fanny, 519 Fernández, Simón, 251
Baughman, Joshua M., 461 Fernández-Villacañas Marín, Manuel Anto-
Bejarano, Cristian, 123 nio, 419
Borbúa, Robert Vargas, 271 Fernández, Yéssica, 45, 75, 331
Boucheron, Edward A., 135 Flores, Darío, 259
Brandão, Ana Paula, 507
Bruzza, Mariuxi, 29
G
Gamboa, Yesid Bernardo Gomez, 3
C Garcés, Flor, 363
Caetano, Nuno M. P., 443 Garcia, Carlos A., 199
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 555
to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security,
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 181,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4875-8
556 Author Index

Garcia, Marcelo V., 199 Nowakowska, Marta, 283, 293, 497

Godinho, Luis M., 391
Gonçalves, Tiago, 391
González, Roberto Jiménez, 519 O
Grijalva, Felipe, 319 Orellano, Nataly, 159
Gualotuña, Tatiana, 271
Guarda, Teresa, 473
Guerra, Laura, 251 P
Gutiérrez, Marisol, 237 Palencia, Pablo, 177
Palma, Hugo Hernández, 399
Palma, Margarita, 363
H Paredes, Manolo, 319
Herazo-Beltrán, Yaneth, 177 Patricio, Collaguazo Vega Wilmer, 189
Hoz de la, Boris, 409 Pertuz, Luciana, 159
Pinillos, María, 111
Poon, Martin D., 461
J Puga, Celio H., 305
Jara-Olmedo, Anibal, 431
Jimenez, Alex F., 305
Jiménez, José Alejandro Machado, 3 Q
Julio, Samaniego, 363 Quintero, Benjamín, 149
Quisimalin, Mauricio, 431

K
Kazanecka, Aneta, 283, 293, 497 R
Kazanecki, Wojciech, 497 Ramírez-Cabrales, Fabián, 3, 17
Kirkwood, Robert K., 135 Ramos, Valentina, 305
Recalde, Luis, 529
Reis, Bruno, 283
L Reis, João, 283, 293, 497
Larios, Omar, 519 Reyes Ch., Rolando P., 111, 271
León, María, 353 Roberto, López, 343
Lezama, Omar Bonerge Pineda, 149, 159, Rodríguez, Rosalba, 237
169, 177, 229, 259, 399, 409, 519 Rojas-Agramonte, Yamirka, 485
Lopez, Jonathan, 331 Romero, Ligia, 519
Loureiro, Nuno A. R. S., 443 Rosado, César, 149

M S
Machado Jiménez, José Alejandro, 17 Santos, Lúcio Agostinho Barreiros, 377
Manotas, Alberto, 519 Santos, María Dolores, 529
Marín-González, Freddy, 177 Sarmento Coelho, Maria Manuela Martins
Mayorga, Jaime, 271 Saraiva, 377
Mejía, Alexander, 343 Sharhorodska, Olha, 211
Mercado, Carlos Vargas, 159, 177 Silva, Jesús, 149, 169, 177, 229, 259, 399,
Merizalde, Darwin, 55, 65, 89, 101 409, 519
Molina, Esteban, 343 Standley, Vaughn H., 135, 461
Monzón, Fernando Huamán, 29 Suárez, Paolo, 305

N T
Natteri, Domingo, 259 Tapia, Freddy, 123
Noboa, Gustavo Paz, 485 Tituaña, Jonathan, 65
Norman, Benjamin E., 135 Toledo, Jorge, 545
Author Index 557

Torres, Michelle, 123 Vergara, Darwin Rizzo, 149

Toulkeridis, Theofilos, 485, 545 Viloria, Amelec, 159
Tupia, Manuel, 29 Vinicio, Salazar Mera Javier, 189

V
Valero, Lesbia, 259 Y
Vallejo, Isaac, 343 Yépez, Víctor, 353, 545
Vallejos, Diana, 123
Varela, Noel, 169, 177, 229, 399, 409
Vargas, Jesús, 149, 259 Z
Vega de la, Karim Guevara Puente, 211 Zambrano, José, 237