GIS-BASED ASSESSMENT OF SMALL SCALE HYDROPOWER

POTENTIAL
CASE STUDY ON KULFO RIVER IN SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

MSC PROPOSAL

BY
BEZAHUN ASSAMNEW

MAIN ADVISOR: Dr.Ing. ABDELLA KEMAL

CO- ADVISOR: MEKUANENT MULUNEH

FEBRUARY, 2018

ARBA MINCH, ETHIOPIA

i
 GIS-BASED ASSESSMENT OF SMALL SCALE HYDROPOWER
POTENTIAL:

CASE STUDY ON KULFO RIVER IN SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

BY

BEZAHUN ASSAMNEW

A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HYDRAULIC

AND WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING, INSTITUTE OF
TECHNOLOGY, SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES, ARBA MINCH
UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN HYDRAULIC
ENGINEERING

FEBRUARY, 2018

ARBA MINCH, ETHIOPIA

ADVISOR’S PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET
This is to certify that the thesis proposal entitled ‘GIS-Based Assessment of Small Scale
Hydropower Potential’ has been developed by Bezahun Assamnew ID. No
PRAMIT/2038/09, under our supervision. Therefore we recommend that the student’s
proposal can be presented for review and open oral presentation.

Main Advisor: Dr.Ing. AbdelLa Kemal Signature …………. Date ………….

Co-Advisor: Mekuanent Muluneh (MSc) Signature ………..... Date …………

Contents
LIST OF TABLES ..............................................................................................................iii

LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ iv

ABREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................ v

1. INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………...1

1.1. Background…………………………………………………………………………...1

1.2. Statement of the Problem……………………………………………………………..2

1.3. Objectives…………………………………………………………………………….3

1.3.1. General Objectives .............................................................................................. 3

1.3.2. Specific Objectives ............................................................................................. 3

1.4. Research Questions…………………………………………………………………...3

1.5. Significance of the Study……………………………………………………………..3

1.6. Scope of the Study……………………………………………………………………4

2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................ 5

2.1. The Recent and Future Hydroelectric Development…………………………………5

2.2. Classification of Small Hydropower Projects………………………………………..5

2.3. Hydropower Potential Calculation…………………………………………………...6

2.4. Generation of Micro-Hydro Power…………………………………………………..6

2.5. Rural and Small Towns Electrification in Ethiopia………………………………….7

2.6. The Importance of Micro and Small Hydropower…………………………………..7

2.7. Components of a Pico, Micro Hydropower and Small Scale Schemes……………..8

2.8. Small Hydropower as a Choice……………………………………………………..9

2.9. Identification and Selection of a Potential Site…………………………………….11

2.10. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) In Hydropower Potential Estimation…..12

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2.11. Regulation of Daily Flow for Small Hydropower Schemes…………………….13

2.12. Run-of-River Hydropower System………………………………………………13

2.13. GIS And Multi Criteria Analysis for Hydropower Suitable Site Selection………14

2.14. GIS- Based Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) Solution for Hydropower Potential
Site Selection…………………………………………………………………………..16

2.15. Methodologies Reviewed For Hydropower Potential Estimation…………….......17

3. MATERIALS AND METHODS .................................................................................. 18

3.1. Description of the Study Area……………………………………………………….18

3.1.1. Vegetation and land use cover .......................................................................... 19

3.1.2. Climate .............................................................................................................. 19

3.1.3. Soil .................................................................................................................... 19

3.1.4. Socio –Economic Aspects of Kulfo River Watershed ................................. 19

3.2. Data type and data sources……………………………………………………….…20

3.3. Methods of data analysis……………………………………………………………20

3.3.1. Checking the availability of metrological data/rainfall/ ................................... 20

3.3.2. Checking the availability hydrological data ..................................................... 21

3.4. Methods for hydropower potential analysis…………………………………………22

3.5. Methods of identifying and prioritizing hydropower potential suitable sites……….24

3.6. Conceptual frame work of overall work flow of the study………………………….25

4. EXPECTED OUT PUT ................................................................................................. 26

5. WORK PLAN ............................................................................................................... 27

6. BUDGET BREAKDOWN ............................................................................................ 29

7. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 31

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 LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1 CLASSIFICATION OF HYDROPOWER ACCORDING TO GENERATING CAPACITY ............... 5

TABLE 2 SOURCES AND DESCRIPTION OF DATA ......................................................................... 20

TABLE 3 TIME BREAKDOWN ....................................................................................................... 27

TABLE 4 RESEARCH BUDGET ...................................................................................................... 29

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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1 LOCATION OF KULFO RIVER AND MAIN TRIBUTARIES ........................................... 18

FIGURE 2 PROCEDURE OF SUITABLE SITE SELECTION ........................................................... 24

FIGURE 3 CONCEPTUAL FRAME WORK ................................................................................. 25

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ABREVIATIONS

SHP Small Scale Power

MHP Micro Hydropower

GHG Green House Gas

KW Kilo Watt

MW Mega Watt

Kg/m3 Kilo Gram Per Meter Cub

USGS United States Geological Survey

m3/s Meter Cube Per Second

NMAE National Metrological Agency Of Ethiopia

DEM Digital Elevation Model

AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process

OWA Ordered Weighted Average

MCE Multi Criteria Evaluation

MCDA Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

GIS Geographic Information System

MOWIE Ministry Of Water, Irrigation and Energy

EEPCO Ethiopia Electric Power Corporation

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 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background

Much of world’s increasing demands for energy and concerns over negative effects of
climate change have high interest in energy from renewable sources. There are various
renewable energy options including wind, solar, biomass and hydroelectric energy
sources. Hydropower is apparently the most common form of renewable energy option.
The identification of a suitable site for a Pico, micro and small-scale hydropower
development needs a collection detailed ground survey data by an expert’s team.
However, mostly it is impractical to gather all survey data in many of country due to cost,
manpower and security constraints. Hence, the specialist’s findings were carefully
targeted to the areas which are most likely to produce suitable and necessary sites (Tarife
et al, 2017).

Ethiopia has the excess hydropower resources that will solve its energy main demand for
decentral energy supply through assessing and developing Pico and small scale hydro
power schemes. The advantages of assessing and developing small scale hydropower
including Pico potential schemes of many small rivers is the necessity of low initial
investments, smaller area, shorter planning and construction time, locally trained
manpower, indigenous material, and lower power generation cost as compared to larger
power projects. Moreover, because of the constraints of financial requirements and luck
of financial sources of the Federal and Regional budget, huge hydropower projects cannot
be executed in the desired construction schedule. So it will lead to widely use of small
scale hydropower including Pico power in Ethiopia with its use in environment friendly
nature. (Malwine, 2014).

The assessment of potential sources of Pico, micro and small scale hydropower will
greatly contribute the supply of power for small towns and rural areas which initiates
investors and local private and government sectors to invest on the this renewable
resource where it does not extend to national grid system, since it can be for household
supplies compiled with small driving machines. However, large scale stations need higher
transmission cost and installation costs due to topographic and geographic problems.

1
1.2. Statement of the Problem

The fundamental formulation of information regarding the assessment, accessibility and

selecting specific suitable potential sites in the Kulfo catchment is helpful for planning,
developing policies and strategies for development of hydropower projects by the
concerning body. The major problem for the towns and rural electrification from
electricity connected from other distant major electric source relies on financial viability.
Even though there are investors which are capable to recover their the commercial
expenses, but the costumers in surrounding Arba Minch town and rural areas along Kulfo
Catchment is a low paying capacity for electric energy.

There was a research conducted in the case study area conducted about Techno-economic
feasibility of small scale hydropower which was done by Zelalem Girm five years ago.
Zelalem optimized the cost of hydropower energy connected to the grid system using
HOMER software. He was analyzed the optimization of cost of power in relation to tariff
by hydraulic parameters and economic parameters as input for the software. But this
study will focus on more assessment potentials and estimation hydro energy output of the
river basin is needed regarding stream flow data and precipitation data and selecting and
prioritizing the most feasible sites using advanced technology like GIS. Nowadays, there
have been advances in information technology such as remote sensing, computational
tools such as geographic information system (GIS) by analyzing hydrological and
metrological data to assess and estimate the hydropower through processing and
analyzing the data more accurately and providing better results.

The major challenge is delivering electricity with lowest cost for rural areas and towns in
reducing poverty. The dependence on traditional resources like biomass is leading to
negative effect on the environment and health of dwellers. Even our university is using
Diesel generator when electricity is off from the main transmission line but Diesel
generator is not economical due to cost of diesel fuel and not environmentally friendly
energy source. Besides, the use of traditional resources like fuel wood as a source of
energy will be replaced by environmental friendly source of energy, hydropower.

The basic solution to this problem in the case study area is estimating the potentials and
selecting the potential sites of Pico to micro small scale hydropower in the rural areas and
in the towns to develop them in electrifying the areas-.

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1.3. Objectives

1.3.1. General Objectives

The general objective of the study is to assess Pico to small hydroelectric power potential
in Kulfo River.

1.3.2. Specific Objectives

 To estimate of hydropower potential and energy output of alternative feasible sites

for rural electrification
 To select suitable hydropower potential sites.
 To evaluate potential sites based on the selection criteria based on GIS Based
Multi-criteria analysis.
 To prioritize hydropower potential sites from Pico to small scale hydropower
development along the river catchment.

1.4. Research Questions

To achieve the aforementioned objectives, the following research questions will be

addressed to analyze the study.

How much discharge and the respective head drop are available to decide the
feasibility of the site for hydropower generation during lean period?
What is the actual state of hydro potential sites in the Kulfo River?
How the potential sites are distributed in the local area?
What are the major issues related to the current power crisis in the country from
the demand and the supply side perspective?

1.5. Significance of the Study

The most importance of this study will contribute enhancing the knowledge gap and
practices in the area of renewable natural energy source like that of hydropower.
Moreover, this study will provide piece of information for Federal and regional policy
makers and water resources implementing agency on available potential of Pico to Small
hydro power potential and available demands. The governmental and non-governmental
sectors may use the results of the study to develop small scale power source.

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Hence the concerned body especially Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and
Electricity (MOWRIE) and EEPCO will consider this study to develop off-grid
alternative electric supply.

In general the significance of this study will reduce the gap between high and low
income, urban and rural dwellers in the extent of energy supply. By doing this, the society
will gain economic benefit from the schemes and satisfaction of the social needs of the
rural population in the area also will be improved.

1.6. Scope of the Study

The study is limited to remote sensing and GIS based technologies and related
instruments like GPS. This study does not deal with detail and deep investigation of Pico
to small hydropower development. It is limited to assessment of the hydropower potential
and selection of suitable potential sites of the river. The study is limited to deal on only
from pico to small scale hydropower schemes, not for medium and large scale capacity
plants.

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 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. The Recent and Future Hydroelectric Development

The recent estimates of total world hydropower energy production today is about 17% of
the usable potential in 1981 and will have risen to about 80% in the year 2020. According
to the United Nations energy conference in 1981, projects are currently planned or under
construction to develop hydropower for the next successive decades (Novac, 2004).
Moreover, with rising costs of fossil fuels, the economic feasibility of small-scale hydro
has changed. During the period from 1940 to 1970, small units were really forced out of
production because of the high cost of operation and the ready availability of electrical
energy from large steam power plants and large high-capacity Hydro plants. That
situation having changed, small-scale hydropower development is becoming an attractive
energy production alternative (Warnick, 1984).

2.2. Classification of Small Hydropower Projects

Hydro power projects are mainly categorized in two plants i.e. small and large scale
plants. Different countries have different norms in the classification of hydropower based
on capacities. Table 1 shows the different types of hydropower according to their
generating capacity.

Table 1Classification of Hydropower According To Generating Capacity (Tarife et al,

2017)

Hydropower Class Generating Capacity

Large > 100MW

Medium 25 – 100 MW

Small 1 – 25 MW

Mini 100 kW – 1 MW

Micro 5 – 100 kW

Pico 1kW-5 kW

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2.3. Hydropower Potential Calculation

Hydropower potential is a function of head drop and discharge at certain flow

exceedance. The theoretical ROR hydropower potential is calculated by using equation
(2.1).

Where,

P = Power generated in Watt (W)

ρ = Mass density of water (kg/m3)

g = Acceleration due to gravity (m/s2)

Q = Discharge (m3/s)

H = Gross head drop (m)

By considering the overall efficiencies of the plant ranging from 7.4-8 the technical
power can be calculated (Mosonyi, 1987) using equation (2.2)

( )

If there are numbers of sub-basins in a given basin, the total theoretical power of the basin
can be calculated by summing the potential of all sub-basins

2.4. Generation of Micro-Hydro Power

Micro-hydro schemes are smaller in size and they are schemes with production capacity
ranging from 1 kW just enough to provide domestic lighting to a group of houses through
a battery charging to 100 kW which can be used for small factories and to deliver an local
mini-grid without necessarily supply electricity to the national grid system(Abebe,2011).
These small units have been used for many years, especially for their mechanical power,
but recent increases in the value of electrical energy and incentive programs have made
the construction and development of micro-hydro power plants much more attractive. For
villages very far from the national grid in which the connection is not economical and for
which a constant stream flow is available, micro hydropower systems are the best options
for electrification. Except their power rating, micro hydropower systems are not different

6
from large or small hydro systems. For example the principles of operation, types of
material units, and the mathematical equations used in selection and design of system
components are essentially the same as conventional/large hydro systems (Buyer’s Guide,
2004).

2.5. Rural and Small Towns Electrification in Ethiopia

Rural electrification is the process of providing electrical services to rural areas: generally
regions with sparse population where agriculture is the dominant livelihood.

The most important rural energy sources in their order of importance are fuel wood, dung
and agro-Residue. The end-uses these sources are necessary for baking, cooking and
lighting. The implication of this is that, if rural and towns households are provided with
electricity, even for lighting, the gain in terms of environmental protection of rural areas
is significant. In view of the above there is a huge market for investors and local
government institutions in the area of small towns and rural electrification. And the huge
market could be taken as the other opportunity for the development of the energy sector
in general and rural electrification in particular. But the rural electrification is facing some
problems. In extending electrical power to low income areas where domestic consumers
are poor and the demand of electricity for productive purposes is absent; low levels of
demand, low revenues, and high initial costs are obstacle to investment (Mubarek, 2016).

The initial capital investment needed to buy the equipment to harness the resource is the
key constraint to supply energy for rural and small towns’ communities. This forced the
communities to choose energy options that are cheap on a day-today basis (Ermias,
2014).

2.6. The Importance of Micro and Small Hydropower

In new and renewable energy sources, micro hydropower is mature in technology. Long
years ago, human beings learnt how to make use of water for power until now in some
countries like Ethiopia; primitive hydraulic devices can be found. Nowadays, Micro
hydropower is being developed, with the application of new technology and design to
shorten its construction period and the initial cost being reduced by full use of local
people and materials as well as a series of preferential policies from government. Even
some countries that stopped the development of small scale hydropower schemes for

7
many years have decided to develop them again on account of the saving of oil and
environment considerations (Mahari, 2017).

The main advantages of micro hydropower are:

It is a clean energy source in which it does not produce greenhouse gas emissions.

It is efficient energy source because it uses a small amount of flow or head drop to
generate electricity with micro hydro.

It is reliable electricity source for which it produces a continuous supply of electrical

energy in comparison to other small-scale renewable technologies.

It does not require reservoir; Micro hydro is functioning as the water passing through the
turbine to generate electricity like that of run-of-river (ROR) system and directed back
into the stream with relatively minimal or no impact on the surrounding ecology.

It is Cost effective energy solution due to its site characteristics, power plant size and
location.

It has small maintenance and operation costs when compared to in to other energy
sources.

It has little environmental impact during construction and it also has some positive impact
on the environment. It is used a basic source of power for developing countries because it
is economical local communities and remote villages (Dilip Singh, 2009).

2.7. Components of a Pico, Micro Hydropower and Small Scale Schemes

The water in the river is diverted by the weir through an opening in the river side (the
intake) into a channel (this could be open or buried depending upon the site conditions).
A settling basin is built in to the channel to remove sand and silt from the water. The
channel follows the contour of the area so as to preserve the elevation of the diverted
water. The channel directs the water into a small reservoir/tank known as the fore bay
from where it is directed on to the turbines through a closed pipe known as the penstock.
The penstock essentially directs the water in a uniform stream on to the turbine at a lower
level. The turning shaft of the turbine can be used to rotate a mechanical device (such as a
grinding mill, oil expeller, wood lathe, etc.) directly, or to operate an electricity generator.
The machinery or appliances which are energized by the turbine (or Pico to small scale
hydropower) are called the load. When electricity is generated, the power house where

8
the generator is located transfers the electricity to a step-up transformer which is then
transmitted to the grid sub-station or to the village/area where this electricity is to be used
(Mubarek, 2016).

Most common civil structures used in a MHP scheme are scheme (Dilip Singh, 2009):-

Weir and Intake are hydraulic structures is designed and constructed to rise water level
and to divert only a portion of the stream flow or the complete flow depending upon the
flow conditions and the requirement.

The power channel or simply a channel conducts the water from the intake to the forebay
tank.

Settling basin is the wider canal that allows the water flow to slow down so that the sand
and silt particles settle on the basin floor.

Spillway is the structure that acts as a flow regulator for the channel and it is designed to
permit overflow of excessive flood.

The fore bay tank serves the purpose of providing steady and continuous flow into the
turbine through the penstocks. It also acts as the last settling basin and allows the last
particles to settle down before the water enters the penstock.

Penstock is the pipe which conveys water under pressure from the forebay tank to the
turbine.it is also is a significant component of the MHP scheme and needs to be designed
and selected carefully.

2.8. Small Hydropower as a Choice

Amongst the renewable energy technologies, small hydro- power is one of the most
attractive and probably the oldest environmental friendly energy technology. Small hydro
potential is available on small rivers, canal head sand canal drops. Of all the non-
conventional renewable energy sources, small hydropower represents the highest density
resource and stands in first place in the generation of electricity from renewable sources
throughout the world (Dudhani et al. 2006).

Hydropower plants are of three types (Okot, 2013, as sited in Mahari, 2017)

Impoundment: this is a large hydropower system which uses a dam to store river water
in reservoir. Water stored in the reservoir is then used to generate electricity.

9
Diversion: a diversion facility channels a portion of a river through ha canal or penstock.
This system may not require the use of a dam.

Run-of-river: the system uses water within the natural flow range and it requires little or
no impoundment.

According to Nautiyal et al (2011) the reasons for small hydropower is a key element for
sustainable development are the following:-

Low polluting: Small hydropower (SHP) projects are known for low carbon energy
production. Several authors have evaluated (SHP) projects as candidates for the reduction
in GHG emissions. Renewable energy technologies, which include SHP, contribute to
global sustainability through GHG mitigation, and these technologies lead to building
capacity and infrastructure sites. The development of small hydro has low effect on the
environment. In small hydro, no big storage is formed and rehabilitation of population is
not required as in case of large hydropower projects.

Development of rural and remote areas: In remote and hilly areas, sources for
development of Small Hydro Power Plants are found in abundance. Small hydro
development provides electricity, trans

Proper utilization of water resources: various streams and rivers can safely provide
energy to run a small hydroelectric plant. No big water storage is required in such projects
which prevents resettlement and rehabilitation of the population communication links and
economy to such rural areas.

Small hydropower is a renewable source of energy: small hydropower meets the

definition of renewable because it uses the energy of flowing water repeatedly and
generates electricity without fear of depletion also.

Small hydro is a cost effective and sustainable source of energy: simple and less
expensive construction work and inexpensive equipment are required to establish and
operate small hydro- power projects. The cost of electricity generation is inflation free.
Also, the gestation period is short and the schemes give financial returns quickly.

Other uses: Small hydropower also gives additional benefits along with power
generation such as irrigation, water supply, flood prevention, fisheries and tourism.

10
2.9. Identification and Selection of a Potential Site

The best geographical areas for micro-hydropower systems are those where there are
steep rivers, streams, creeks or springs flowing year-round, such as in hilly areas with
high year-round rainfall.

To assess the suitability of a site for a micro hydropower system, a pre-feasibility study
should be made using DEM data for GIS software input. This involves surveying the site
to determine the water-flow rate and the head through which the water can fall. The best
place to start is your nearest stream, or you can refer to topographical maps, Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) and hydrological records of the area you are considering
(Buyer’s Guide, 2004).

What to Look For In a Hydro Site?

According to BC Hydro (2002) there are several things to look for when selecting a site
for micro hydro development. A good site should have the characteristics listed below.
Where sites are less than ideal, developers can sometimes use creative approaches to
optimize projects.

1. Water and Lots of It

When the stream is larger water becomes more available for a micro hydro development.
However not all water can be diverted from a stream, for power production, as water must
remain in the stream environmental reasons. The amount of water that must remain varies
for different streams.

2. High Head

The greatest fall over the shortest route is preferable when choosing a micro hydro site as
a long penstock can be quite costly. More head is usually better, since power is the
product of head and flow. Thus less flow is required at a higher head to generate similar
amounts of power. Also with a higher head, the turbine is able to run at a higher speed,
resulting in a smaller turbine and generator for a given power output. However, pipe
pressure ratings and pipe joint integrity require careful design at very high heads.

3. Close Proximity to Distribution (Transmission) Lines or Load

The closer a site is to distribution lines, or the load center in the case of an off-grid plant,
the less costly it will be to transmit electricity. For grid connection it is generally only

11
economical to connect a micro hydro plant to the 12 or 25 kV distribution system. When
Connecting to the higher voltage transmission system greatly increases the
interconnection cost.

4. Site Accessibility

The terrain surrounding the stream must be suitable for running a length of pipe from the
proposed intake structure to the powerhouse location. Anticipated high and low water
flows and levels must be taken into account when sizing and siting these facilities. The
site also requires access for construction and maintenance purposes.

2.10. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) In Hydropower Potential

Estimation

GIS are useful for specifying different type of the models.it can also be used to analyze
data for the creation of a model. Building a model requires data exploration and analysis,
algorithm specification, and accuracy assessment. GIS can be useful in all three steps
with the growing advancement of data processing in computational-GIS and accessibility
of satellite imagery information, the development of a number of methodologies for the
extraction of terrain characteristics from DEM (Digital Elevation Models), as drainage
network position, length and slope was made possible. The application of GIS-based tools
and remote sensing data on hydropower survey studies have found room in a sector that
has been very important in the assessment tools and source of information. Those
technologies have been employed in different countries in order to locate and select
hydropower opportunities of different types (Larentis et al, 2010).

Traditionally hydropower potential is estimated for a particular site by using historical

data of discharge. Very limited tools were available to estimate the stream flow at
ungagged locations. Due to the complexity involved in hydrological phenomena, the
estimation of discharge at ungagged location based on the observed data of some specific
sites using the traditional estimation method poses doubts regarding the accuracy and
reliability of the assessment. Furthermore, the assessment based on the location specific
recorded data does not cover the entire potential river, thus leaving the more potential
sites at other locations. The collection of observed data from a large number of gauging
stations is costly as well.

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Moreover, there are a number of different methods used to analyze geographic data in
GIS. There are methods of analysis of geographic data and methods of analysis of
attribute data. When we are speaking about geographic data there are analysis performed
over the vector data and raster data (Rikalovic et al, 2013).

The most commonly used spatial analysis in Geographic Information data (GIS) are:-

Analysis of attributive (tabular) data,

Overlapping layers (i.e. query of spatial data)
Analysis of the distance,
Network analysis and
Non-parametric techniques.

With the advent of modern computation tools such as GIS, remote sensing (RS) and
hydrological models, the aforementioned constraints have been addressed
comprehensively. The realistic representation of: (I) terrain, (II) complex hydrological
phenomena and (III) varying climate are now possible through the spatial tools and
modeling techniques (Bajracharya, 2015).

2.11. Regulation of Daily Flow for Small Hydropower Schemes

The natural daily flow is used to generate electric power while the daily regulating small
pond by which the natural daily flow can be regulated in accordance with the fluctuation
of the daily load, i.e. storing water in the regulating pond at off-break times and
discharging it from the pond at peak hours. So the power output is become big without
regulation. If the pond volume reaches 20-25 percent of that water volume, then a
complete daily regulation, and even certain weekly regulations is possible (Tong Jiandong
et al., 2000)

2.12. Run-of-River Hydropower System

There are various sizes of hydropower plants ranging from very large with big dams to
small run-of-river projects. Power is generated by natural runoff without flow regulation.
Firm power is guaranteed by a natural base flow with high reliability. Many small scale
hydropower (SHP) stations belong to this scheme. This is because the scheme costs less
in engineering, especially in the case where water is diverted from rivers with a high base
flow. In recent years, run-of-river hydropower projects have emerged as a viable, low-
impact alternative to existing large-scale projects. Run-of-the-river facilities use

13
conventional hydropower technology to produce electricity by diverting river via a
pipeline called a penstock through turbines that spin generators - before returning water
back to the river downstream (Tarife et al, 3017).

2.13. GIS And Multi Criteria Analysis for Hydropower Suitable Site Selection

It is obvious that many factors must be involved in the decision-making process, which
makes the problem challenging choice in the selection of appropriate tools to enable
concentration data, information and knowledge.

New trends in information technologies put Geo-information systems (GIS) in the center
of events in hydropower sites. The siting and placement of a major facility means to
satisfy a number of competing objectives and criteria. To accomplish task such as
hydropower site selection, we need to prepare number of map like discharge, head and
power in flow maps in this study, each with a different theme. Geographic information
system (GIS) is a group of procedures that provide data input, storage and retrieval,
mapping and spatial analysis for both spatial and attributes data to support the decision-
making activities of the organization (Malczewski, 2006). Since GIS provide the
capability to enter, edit, retrieve, analyze map, and visualize spatial data, it is not
surprising to see that spatial data is marketed primarily in a GIS format.

Looking towards the future, one can project an ever-increasing role for GIS to help
support location studies (Church, 2002).

Multi-criteria decision-making problems can be classified on the basis of the major

components of Multi-Criteria decision analysis: multi-objective decision analysis
(MODA) versus multi-attribute decision making (MADA), individual versus group
decision-maker problems, and decision under certainty versus decision under uncertainty.
The distinction between MODA and MADA is based on the classification of evaluation
criteria into attributes and objectives (Drobne, Samo and Anka, 2009)

Decision is a choice between alternatives. Criterion is some basis for a decision that can
be measured and. evaluated. It is the evidence upon which a decision is based.

There are a large number of multi-criteria decision methods that are nowadays in use in
GIS environment (Rikalovic et al, 2013). The most commonly used analysis are listed and
described as follows:

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 Analytic hierarchy process (AHP),

Ordered weighted averaging (OWA)

AHP-OWA

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Is one of the most common used MCE tools. AHP is a method that allows the
consideration of both objective and subjective factors in ranking alternatives. It assists the
decision making process by allowing decision-makers to organize the criteria and
alternative solutions of a decision problem in a hierarchical decision model. The AHP
decision hierarchy involves a number of steps: Identification of the goal like select the
most suitable hydropower site, use of a set of decision factors/ variables/ criteria like
economic costs and accessibilities and determination of a set of alternatives/choices.
Comparisons of the available choices/ alternatives are made on a pair-wise basis (Mahari,
2017).

Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA)

It is a family of multi-criteria aggregation procedures. It has been developed in the

context of fuzzy set theory. OWA involves two sets of weights: criterion, or importance
weights and order weights. A criterion weight is assigned to a given criterion or attribute
for all locations in a study area to indicate its relative importance, according to the
decision-maker’s preferences, in the set of criteria under consideration. The order weights
are associated with the criterion values on a location-by-location basis. The GIS-based
OWA provides a tool for generating a wide range of decision strategies by specifying an
appropriate linguistic quantifier and the associated set of the OWA weights. The position
of the OWA operator can be identified on the continuum ranging from the all quantifier to
the at least quantifier (Eldrandaly, 2013).

AHP-OWA

An extension of the AHP using OWA operators (AHP-OWA), suggesting that the
capabilities of AHP as a comprehensive tool for decision making can be improved by
integration of the fuzzy linguistic OWA operators. The inclusion of AHP and OWA can
provide a more powerful multi criteria decision- making tool for structuring and solving
decision problems including spatial decision problems (Eldrandaly, 2013).

15
2.14. GIS- Based Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) Solution for Hydropower
Potential Site Selection

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis can be thought of as a process that combines and
transforms geographical data (input) into a resultant decision (output). Geographical
information can be defined as geo-referenced data that has been processed into a form
meaningful to the recipient. The data in geographical information systems are most
commonly organized by separate thematic maps or sets of data, referred to as a map layer.
The alternative to the layer approach is object-oriented GIS, where the objects are
intended to closely represent real world elements.

Irrespective of spatial data organization, the ultimate aim of GIS is to provide support for
spatial decisions. The multi-criteria decision-making procedures define a relationship
between input map and output maps (Rikalovic et al, 2013).

The procedures for GIS-based MCE solutions have five steps as explained below.

Step1. Defining Site Selection Criteria: In the first step, the analyst declares the type of
facility and defines the regions of interest. Based on the facility type and the regions of
interest, the analyst defines the sitting criteria.

Step2. Preparing Criterion Maps: After defining the sitting criteria, the analyst prepares
the criterion maps based on the predefined sitting criteria. Central to spatial multi criteria
decision making is the fact that an attribute can be represented in a GIS database as an
attribute (criterion) map layer. The procedure for generating criterion maps is based on
different GIS functions (Mahari, 2017).

Step3. Data Standardization: Given a variety of scales on which each criterion can be
measured, MCE requires that values contained in the various criterion map layers be
transformed to comparable units (standardized to a common scale).

Step4. Multi criteria Evaluation: A number of MCE techniques have been implemented
in the GIS environment for tackling site selection problems using AHP, OWA, and the
extension of AHP- OWA operator techniques for solving sitting problems.

16
2.15. Methodologies Reviewed For Hydropower Potential Estimation

As described in Section 2.3, the estimation of hydropower potential requires the

estimation of head drop H and river discharge Q. Different methodologies have been
developed to estimate the head drop and discharge. Head drop can be calculated manually
from the topographic map or automatically along the river system from Digital Elevation
Model (DEM) using GIS software.

Estimation of discharge is a little more difficult because the river flow depends upon the
number of processes taking place in the catchment. The main processes are surface runoff
from precipitation, ground water flow, snow and glacial melt and evapotranspiration.

Generally, discharge observations are done only at a few locations in the river catchment
and therefore, the observed discharge data are not available at the location of interest.

Therefore, the discharge estimation is required upstream and downstream of the observed
point as the river flow changes with every new tributary. Discharge estimation is also
required for an unguaged river basin. Some of the methodologies used to estimate the
river discharge are: linear regression method, drainage area ratio method and hydrological
simulation. Regression equations have been used to estimate the discharge at gauged and
ungauged sites in many countries. In this method, several parameters such as drainage
area, land use, climate variables, geomorphology etc. are used as the independent
variables to develop the regression equation of stream flow for the given catchment
(Vogel et al., 1999).

17
 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1. Description of the Study Area

Kulfo river watershed is located near Arba Minch town which is located 500 km away
from Addis Ababa, capital city of Ethiopia. the catchment area of kulfo is about 410 km2
outlet at lake Chamo, about 364 km2 at gauging site and located between 5o55’N and
6o15’N latitude and 37o18’E and 37o36’E longitude. Nearly 28.29% of land use of the
catchment is covered with settlements and agriculture. The alluvial fan deposited by kulfo
river watershed shows a relict branded drainage pattern indicating that kulfo river
alternately flowed in to Lake Abaya and Chamo. The elevation of the catchment varies
from 3600 m (a.m.s.l) at the peak of wish ridge to 1108 m (a.m.s.l) at the entrance of
Lake Abaya. It is almost flat in the lower part and characterized by steep topographic in
the upper part of the catchment.

The Kulfo River begins from the junction of Titika and Gulando river at 6o07’N latitude
and 37o27’E longitude that joins the outflow to Abaya and the inflow to Lake Chamo at
the 5o55’N latitude and 37o33’E longitude. The principal tributaries are baba, Gulando
and Yeremo draining to the upper part of kulfo watershed whereas the tributaries such as
Wobale and Mojale drain to the middle part of the watershed and Korzha, Ambule and
Titika to the lower part of the catchment area. The mean annual flow of kulfo river at
upper gauging station is 6.32 m3 /s (Tilahun, 2015).

Figure 1 location of kulfo river and main tributaries (source: Dessie, 2016)

18
3.1.1. Vegetation and land use cover

Bushes and bare land mostly cover the upstream and downstream catchment of the area.
Some parts are highly eroded and no fertile soil has left. Along the river, vegetation
included only strip of forest are found in the lower part of the kulfo river. These natural
forest left in the higher mountain region in the upstream land is used for cultivation, for
grazing, and housing, crops that grow in the catchment area are maize, sweet potatoes,
cotton, banana and sugarcane (Wayand, et al., 1999).

3.1.2. Climate

The maximum and the minimum average monthly rainfall at the lowlands of the
watershed are 35.5 mm in the January and 195 mm in the May. The rain over the
watershed is bi modal with 80% of annual rain falling during March to October. The dry
season occurs from November to April. The maximum monthly temperature in the
lowlands of the watershed varies from 34.1 C0 in March to 28.1C0 in June whereas the
minimum temperature varies from 14 to 17.9 C0 December and august respectively. The
relative humidity of watershed is varies between 41 to 70% march to October respectively
(Dessie2016).

3.1.3. Soil

The soil types in the study area are classified in to three types known as volcanic
materials, chromic vertisols, dystric nitisols, and eutric nitisols orthic acrisols. Generally,
the soils types of this watershed area are characterized with shallow, moderate to deep
and very deep in depth and sandy clay to clay texture types. They are reddish brown to
red clay soils run-off formation from chromic vertisols is high and hence it is susceptible
to erosion. These soils are deep and have very good potential for agriculture. The nitisols
of the area are intensely cultivated for annual crops (Negash, 2013).

3.1.4. Socio –Economic Aspects of Kulfo River Watershed

The livelihood of people dwelling in the upstream of kulfo watershed is depends on

small-scale subsistent rain-fed agriculture can be practiced. Cropping agricultural
products such as barley, beans, sweet potatoes, sugar cane or sorghum, supplemented
with some livestock production and fuel wood collection are the main sources of income.
Wide spread farm land is used in around the basin and also soil erosion is common
phenomenon in catchment area (Tilahun, 2015).

19
 3.2. Data type and data sources

The data that will be required for this study are listed and described in the following table.

Table 2 sources and description of data

No Data Type of data Description Source of data Remark

More than
Daily observed rainfall data is
Rainfall/precip
1 Secondary required for discharge analysis and NMAE 10 years
itation
rainfall grid map. Data

2 Stream flow Secondary It is important data for hydropower MOWIE At least 15

data potential analysis. It is represent an Years data
integration of all hydrologic factors

3 DEM Secondary It is required for watershed MOWIE/USG 30*30m

delineation and stream link S Resolution
analysis.
DEM

3.3. Methods of data analysis

The tools and instruments that will be required for the study are:-

GIS tool- will be required for the whole hydropower potential and suitable site analysis.

GPS tool –will be required for collection of xyz points and elevation data.

3.3.1. Checking the availability of metrological data/rainfall/

The important data that is the rainfall data that is collected from the national
meteorological services agency for kulfo river station in my case should be checked first
before used in the analysis process. The rainfall data should be checked with the
following methods:

20
 1. Filling of missed rainfall data

The record at many rain gauge stations may consist of short breaks due to several reasons
such as absence of the observer, instrumental failures etc. It is better to estimate these
missing records and fill the gaps rather than to leave them. There are a number of
methods that used for estimating missing rainfall data such as arithmetic mean method,
normal-ratio method and distance power method and the like.

Among those methods i will use the arithmetic mean method because of it provides good
result with three station data than others and its simplicity to use. However, arithmetic
mean method is applicable if the normal annual precipitations at the adjacent stations are
within 10% of the normal rainfall of the station under consideration. Otherwise other
methods of missing rainfall data filling will be used based on data available.

2. Checking the consistency of rainfall data

A double mass curve technique is used to test the consistency and accuracy of rainfall
records at all stations. Rainfall data will be checked by consistency by comparing data for
a single station with that of a pattern composed of the data from several other stations in
the area. It also used to check

The double-mass curve will be used to adjust inconsistent precipitation data in the Kulfo
River.

3. Checking the homogeneity for rainfall stations

The homogeneity of the selected base gauging stations average monthly rainfall records
will be checked. It will also be done by determining non-dimensional rainfall and plot it
against monthly rainfall of the station.

3.3.2. Checking the availability hydrological data

Like that of rainfall data the stream flow data of kulfo river will be checked before using
it in the analysis process by the following test.

Checking consistence and homogeneity of stream flow data: - to detect the presence of
inconsistencies or non – homogeneities in river flow data. It will be checked by different
type of tests. These are:

 F-test for stability of variances,

21
  T-test for stability of means and spearman`s rank correlation test for indicating
absence of trends

3.4. Methods for hydropower potential analysis

The methods that will be used in the estimation of hydro potential consist of mainly two
parts i.e. Estimation of discharge along the river system and estimation of potential head
drop. Besides this flow duration curve is also analyzed.

Flow duration curve (FDC)

Flow duration curve will be calculated to evaluate the stream and basin characteristics
from its shape.

The slope of the curve at upper end shows the type of flood regime the basin whereas the
slope of the lower end of the curve indicates the ability of basin to sustain low flows
during dry season.

It is required to know firm power potential i.e.P95 at Q95, P50 at Q50, P30 at Q30 and P100 at
Q100.

FDC is prepared for the daily, weekly or monthly stream flow data by calculating
probability of exceedance.

Discharge analysis

Stream flow data for hydropower potential sites will be transferred to suitable sites.
Drainage area ratio method will be used in the analysis discharge along the river because
it is widely used technique in many cases where limited stream flow recorded data are
available, easy to use and also the only method available when precipitation-runoff
models will not be developed. Discharge is estimated by drainage area weighting using
equation (3.1)

Where,

Q’ij = estimated discharge for month i and year j at ungauged location

Qij = flow for month i and year j at gauged location

Ay = drainage area at ungauged location

22
Ax = drainage area at gauged location.

Area ratio method will be applied only for either hydropower sites or parametric duration
curve estimator sites if they are nearest to the gauge station otherwise their corresponding
flow duration curve was done by using regionalization using GIS Based spatial
interpolation algorithm.

Head drop estimation of the potential sites

Head drop is required for hydropower potential assessment. It will be done by applying
focal statistics function on digital elevation data.

The head drop is computed by finding the lowest neighboring cells (DEM without sink)
in the focal statistics function first and subtracting it from 30*30m DEM. The head
obtained will be checked by collecting survey data using GPS and Google Earth of
sample suitable sites.

Calculation of Water Power

Water power of potential sites will be calculated from discharge analyzed and heads drop
for different time scale. In- stream power potential by raster calculator will be determined
after the raster map of average annual flow and the drop of particular cell.

The horizontal distance mostly taken between small hydropower plants is 500m the
reason to this is small scale plants do not more space for storage i.e. Run of river flow.

Power potential for each selected site will be calculated by raster calculator using
equation (3.2)

Pin-stream

Where,

P in-stream = in-stream power potential in kw

q = stream discharge in m3/s

= unit weight of water, 1000 kg/m3

h = head in m and

g =acceleration due to gravity, 9.81m3/s

23
3.5. Methods of identifying and prioritizing hydropower potential suitable
sites

This will be applicable based on GIS and Multi Criteria analysis techniques. To select
hydropower feasible sites, sensitive selection criteria that will be considered in this study
are:

 In-stream power,
 Discharge and
 Head

By using fuzzy overlay analysis of raster map of those criteria in the gis environment, the
hydropower potential sites which intersect above three criteria will be selected. The
prioritization potential sites involve evaluation of each site the river basin for hydropower
development. The selection criteria for feasible site in ranking of the site that will be
necessary are discharge, head, power, costumers and accessibility of the site.

As described in the literature under sub tittle 2.14, there are five procedural steps of the
proposed GIS-Based MCA solution for suitable site selection. In this study selection of
suitable sites for hydropower based on the given criteria will be done by GIS Based multi
criteria analysis as shown below in figure 3.

Figure 2 procedure of suitable site selection

24
3.6. Conceptual frame work of overall work flow of the study.

Figure 3 conceptual frame work

25
 4. EXPECTED OUT PUT

At the end of the study the following outcomes are expected

 The estimation of potential power from Pico to small scale schemes in the river
basin.
 The total and individual energy output of the potential sites.
 The most feasible sites for Pico to small scale hydropower development.
 The rank of suitable sites using GIS-MCE system.
 GIS-Based map of the selected potential sites.

26
 5. WORK PLAN

The Table Below Indicates My Suggested Time Frame For The Research.

Table 3 Time Breakdown

Month

N Septem
October
o Activities April March May June July August ber

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Weeks

Data
Collection

Literature
Review

Data
Preparation
& Analysis

Discharge
Analysis
And Head
Using GIS

27
5

Selection Of
Feasible
Sites Using
GIS-Based
MCE Tools

Result And
Discussion

Thesis
Report
Writing

Compiling
And
Submitting

28
 6. BUDGET BREAKDOWN

Table 4 Research Budget

Quantit Total Cost

S.No Descriptions Unit Unit Cost(Birr)
y (Birr)

I Personal Cost

1 Per Diem Days 20 50 1,000

2 House Allowances Month 8 700 5,600

Sub Total 6,600

II Material Cost

1 GPS No. 1 2,600 2,600

2 Flash Disk(32GB) No. 2 400 800

3 Rewritable CDS No. 5 25 125

4 CD Writer ( External Type) No. 5 10 50

5 Hard Disk(1TB) No. 1 2,600 2,600

6 Photocopying Page 1200 1 1,200

7 Paper Packet 4 100 400

8 For Communication No. 20 100 2,000

9 Internet Service Hour 75 5 375

Typing & Printing The

10 Page 140*10 6 7,800
Paper

29
 Dissertations Compiling
1,125
11 And Binding And Color No 15 75
Print

12 Digital Camera No 1 10,000 10,000

Sub Total 29,150

Grand Total 35,750

30
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