Weekly
Weekly
Weekly
Headlines
(Global Economy) US Industrial production rose to 0.2% in August (Indian Economy) RBI raised Repo rate by 25 bps to 8.25% (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) Nifty September Futures closed at 5087 (Technical Analysis) Nifty resistance at at 5300-5375 and supports at 5000-4920 (Weekly Recommendations) SBIN AND STER (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (August 2011) Annualize d Rate (curre nt) Headline Inflation (WPI) 9.78 Internals Primary Products Fue l Powe r and Lubricants Manufacture d Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on September 16, 2011) Current 1 Week USD GBP Euro Ye n 47.47 74.96 65.79 61.81 46.38 74.01 64.48 59.87 Change Weekly 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 1 Year 46.71 71.78 59.76 55.59 Change annual 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.11
8.36 8.21
Economic Calendar
India Date Eve nt Pe riod 10-Sep 10-Sep 10-Sep Prior 9.5% 13.0% 13.0% 22-Sep Food Articles WPI YoY 13-Sep Fue l Power Article s WPI YoY 14-Sep Primary Article s WPI YoY
US Date Eve nt Pe riod AUG SEP AUG SEP SEP AUG Prior 604K 6.3 4.67M 0.3% 428K 0.5% 20-Sep Housing Starts 21-Sep MBA Mortgage Applications 21-Sep Existing Home Sales 21-Sep FOMC Rate Decision 22-Sep Initial Jobless Claims 22-Sep Le ading Indicators
Outlook
Investment interest is likely to continue in banking, infra space. Interest rate increase will restrict upsides and focus will shift to quarterly corporate performance. Metals also offer value but choppiness is bound to persist here. Technology space could see some gains if a sign of stability in developed markets is visible. Mid cap and small cap space has also continued to see interest. Power related companies could do well as we are seeing some order flows return. Power ancillary companies & PSU banks are trading at attractive valuations from a long term perspective. One will still need to keep a close eye on the global developments though some sanity seems to be returning in developed markets as well.
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly) Institutions FII DIIs Ne t Inflow -9.2 4.1
Market Snapshot
Nifty September Futures closed at 5087 (Premium of 2.75 points over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 26.78 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 2.07 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 28.45, up 0.81 from previous weeks close (27.64). In the week VIX touched low of 26.15 and high of 34.74. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option) Across all expiries, open interest is highest at 4900, 5000 & 5300 call options,
51 00
4600
4800
4900
5400
4700
4500
5000
5200
5300
while open interest in the put options is highest at 4900, 4800 & 4700 strike
5500
Strike
prices, suggesting 4800-5300 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Sector Wise OI Change: Sectors across the board witnessed positive OI change with POWER, AUTO, BANK, OIL & GAS leading the pack.
OI-Cha nge
0 (1,000,000) (2,000,000)
% Change - Price Cash Future 8.45 10.86 10.99 8.92 7.94 12.22 11.36 11.04 9.91 8.76
%Change - Volume % Change Cash Future in OI 643.15 -61.50 679.43 39.32 942.41 246.25 -82.38 723.77 26.18 1,244.98 14.51 -12.97 18.86 0.82 12.39
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
Sec tors
% Change - Price Cash Future -12.39 -10.35 -9.95 -9.28 -8.81 -12.38 -11.52 -10.26 -9.59 -8.87
%Change - Volume % Change Cash Future in OI 198.06 108.87 161.90 -89.36 301.10 237.92 3.50 12.73 -94.84 250.13 21.15 42.07 5.54 -40.00 19.49
-50%
% Change in OI
1.2 1.1 1
P CR
Nifty PC Ratio
Date
Top 10 Volume Gainers SCRIPS % Change in F&O % Change Volumes Price Open Interest (Delivery Based) TULIP 8.8% 12.4 942.4% PATNI 7.2% 14.2 1349.7% FINANTECH 11.0% 18.9 679.4% PIRHEALTH -2.4% 6.4 300.7% COREEDUTEC 0.1% 4.0 5039.5% CESC -3.1% 10.2 484.7% ONGC 5.4% 10.0 216.6% JISJALEQS 1.3% 14.4 41.1% ABB -1.8% -0.8 434.3% OIL 5.4% 0.7 537.4%
16-S ep
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a positive note @ 5084.25 and up by 25 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish engulfing candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4981.70 and made a low of 4911 and made a high of 5143.60 then finally closed sideways to positive at 5084.25. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed above the 20 day moving average (4978) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to positive. Stochastics trending higher at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4900-5300. The next area of resistance is around at 5300-5375. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bullish trading on weekly chart having supports at 5000-4920 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4890 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5300-5375 and supports at 5000-4920. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17675-17900 and supports at 16670-16400. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9970-10175 and supports at 9500-9400.
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5
Equity
10
15
20
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Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity 15-Se p-11 14-Se p-11 13-Se p-11 12-Se p-11 FII Activity 16-Se p-11 15-Se p-11 14-Se p-11 13-Se p-11 12-Se p-11
Source: Accord Fintech
Equity (INR in Bn) Purchase 4.99 4.18 3.65 3.44 Sales 3.92 5.75 4.27 4.38 Net Purchase /Sales 1.07 -1.57 -0.62 -0.94 Purchase 31.25 37.89 23.16 40.24
Debt (INR in Bn) Sales 45.26 28.26 23.32 24.53 Net Purchase /Sales -14.01 9.63 -0.16 15.71
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13-S ep 19-S ep
9-S ep
19-S ep
12
JM FMF-XX-B(G)
7-Sep
20-S ep
7-Sep
21-S ep
13
JM FMF-XX-C(G)
13-S ep 22-S ep
Clsoe ended
16-S ep 26-S ep
JM FMF-XX-D(G)
15-S ep 28-S ep
Close ended
Mr. Jinesh Gopani objective is to generate capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.
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Absolute Return (In %) 1 Week 1 Month 0.77 0.49 -0.27 0.96 0.47 0.79 -0.03 0.21 -0.03 -0.35 -0.26 0.26 0.39 0.55 -1.53 1.65 -0.16 1.44 0.37 0.17 -0.13 -1.16 -0.44 0.50 1 Year -7.78 -9.74 -11.86 -7.85 -11.94 -7.70 3.94 2.41 2.63 -4.63 1.51 -3.96
CAGR (In %) Since Inception 29.37 20.90 23.36 23.11 21.72 30.09 9.59 10.74 11.52 18.73 16.85 16.19
(16 Sep 11) 98.48 33.31 44.28 202.55 192.40 94.21 26.96 21.94 23.22 206.43 55.61 80.75
BETA 0.69 0.80 0.70 0.78 0.88 0.77 0.09 0.31 0.18 0.20 0.17 0.31
ALPHA 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.02 -0.04
Expense Ratio 1.82 1.84 1.91 1.83 1.78 1.84 2.09 1.54 1.52 1.80 2.11 2.34
(In %)
(16 Sep 11) 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Since Inception 17.54 16.33 16.56 17.08 31.97 33.86 10.99 11.46 17.53 13.02 16.70 15.28 21.32 1439.16 2328.12 0.17 0.14 0.15 -0.01 -0.13 -0.10 0.16 0.17 0.09 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.76 0.74 0.67 0.50 0.30 0.27 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.72 0.68 8.44 7.87 6.82 7.71 5.08 4.00 8.97 7.60 8.82 8.31 8.47 8.60 8.20 8.45 7.81 7.01 6.05 6.98 7.99 9.21 10.73 8.60 7.06 7.29 6.47 7.29 6.58 6.87 6.69
YTM
Average Days
Modified Expense Ratio 0.14 0.80 0.60 0.79 2.12 1.24 0.65 1.35 0.59 0.65 0.57 0.25 0.41 0.20 0.65 Days 54.75 222.65 25.20 912.50 1744.70 1668.05 69.35 262.80 0.00 43.80 51.10 0.00 23.00 35.82 0.00
Maturity In Duration in 54.75 244.55 26.40 1003.75 2679.10 2489.30 76.65 372.30 938.05 47.45 51.10 60.90 25.00 38.34 30.00
9.00 0.00 0.00 9.75 9.43 0.00 9.79 0.00 9.29 9.60 9.07 0.00 0.00 8.55
8.03 10.06
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