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Solutions Chapter 2

This chapter discusses probability concepts including: - Defining sample spaces using sets of outcomes for events like errors in data transmission. - Calculating probabilities of events using formulas like the multiplication rule. - Describing independent and dependent events using conditional probabilities. - Applying concepts like mutually exclusive events, unions, and intersections to real world examples. - Using probability to analyze situations with multiple random variables like production from multiple molds. Key formulas and concepts like conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and independence are introduced to calculate probabilities of complex events.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
48 views7 pages

Solutions Chapter 2

This chapter discusses probability concepts including: - Defining sample spaces using sets of outcomes for events like errors in data transmission. - Calculating probabilities of events using formulas like the multiplication rule. - Describing independent and dependent events using conditional probabilities. - Applying concepts like mutually exclusive events, unions, and intersections to real world examples. - Using probability to analyze situations with multiple random variables like production from multiple molds. Key formulas and concepts like conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and independence are introduced to calculate probabilities of complex events.

Uploaded by

Rapheal Adam
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 7

Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

CHAPTER 2
Section 2-1
2-2. Let e and o denote a bit in error and not in error (o denotes okay), respectively.
⎧eeee, eoee, oeee, ooee, ⎫
⎪eeeo, eoeo, oeeo, ooeo, ⎪
⎪ ⎪
S=⎨ ⎬
⎪eeoe, eooe, oeoe, oooe, ⎪
⎪⎩eeoo, eooo, oeoo, oooo ⎪⎭
2-3. Let a denote an acceptable power supply.
Let f, m, and c denote a power supply that has a functional, minor, or cosmetic error, respectively.
S = {a, f , m, c}
2-14.
automatic standard
transmission transmission

with with without


air without air air
air

red blue black white red blue black white red blue black white red blue black white
2-20. a)

b)

c)

2-1
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

d)

e)

2-23. Let d and o denote a distorted bit and one that is not distorted (o denotes okay), respectively.
⎧dddd , dodd , oddd , oodd ,⎫
⎪dddo, dodo, oddo, oodo, ⎪
⎪ ⎪
a) S =⎨ ⎬
⎪ddod , dood , odod , oood ,⎪
⎪⎩ddoo, dooo, odoo, oooo ⎪⎭

b) No, for example A1 ∩ A2 = {dddd, dddo, ddod, ddoo}

⎧dddd , dodd ,⎫
⎪dddo, dodo ⎪
⎪ ⎪
c) A1 = ⎨ ⎬
⎪ddod , dood ⎪
⎪⎩ddoo, dooo ⎪⎭

⎧oddd , oodd ,⎫
⎪oddo, oodo, ⎪
⎪ ⎪
d) A1′ = ⎨ ⎬
⎪odod , oood ,⎪
⎪⎩odoo, oooo ⎪⎭
e) A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 = {dddd }

f) ( A1 ∩ A2 ) ∪ ( A3 ∩ A4 ) = {dddd , dodd , dddo, oddd , ddod , oodd , ddoo}

2-2
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

2-29. a) A′ = {x | x ≥ 72.5}
b) B′ = {x | x ≤ 52.5}
c) A ∩ B = {x | 52.5 < x < 72.5}
d) A ∪ B = {x | x > 0}

2-37. From the multiplication rule, 3×4×3×4=144

2-38. From equation 2-1, the answer is 10! = 3,628,800

2-39. From the multiplication rule and equation 2-1, the answer is 5!5! = 14,400
7!
2-40. From equation 2-3, = 35 sequences are possible
3! 4!

2-42. a) If the chips are of different types, then every arrangement of 5 locations selected from the 12 results in a
12!
different layout. Therefore, P512 = = 95,040 layouts are possible.
7!
b) If the chips are of the same type, then every subset of 5 locations chosen from the 12 results in a different

layout. Therefore, ( ) = 512!7!! = 792 layouts are possible.


12
5

Section 2-2

2-54. All outcomes are equally likely


a) P(A) = 2/5
b) P(B) = 3/5
c) P(A') = 3/5
d) P(A∪B) = 1
e) P(A∩B) = P(∅)= 0

2-61. The sample space is {0, +2, +3, and +4}.


(a) The event that a cell has at least one of the positive nickel charged options is {+2, +3, and +4}. The probability is
0.35 + 0.33 + 0.15 = 0.83.
(b) The event that a cell is not composed of a positive nickel charge greater than +3 is {0, +2, and +3}. The
probability is 0.17 + 0.35 + 0.33 = 0.85.

2-67. a) P(A) = 30/100 = 0.30


b) P(B) = 77/100 = 0.77
c) P(A') = 1 – 0.30 = 0.70
d) P(A∩B) = 22/100 = 0.22
e) P(A∪B) = 85/100 = 0.85
f) P(A’∪B) =92/100 = 0.92

2-69. a) Because E and E' are mutually exclusive events and E ∪ E ′ = S


1 = P(S) = P( E ∪ E ′ ) = P(E) + P(E'). Therefore, P(E') = 1 - P(E)
b) Because S and ∅ are mutually exclusive events with S = S ∪ ∅
P(S) = P(S) + P(∅). Therefore, P(∅) = 0
c) Now, B = A ∪ ( A ′ ∩ B) and the events A and A ′ ∩ B are mutually exclusive. Therefore,
P(B) = P(A) + P( A ′ ∩ B ). Because P( A ′ ∩ B ) ≥ 0 , P(B) ≥ P(A).

Section 2-3

2-74. a) P(A') = 1- P(A) = 0.7


b) P ( A ∪ B ) = P(A) + P(B) - P( A ∩ B ) = 0.3+0.2 - 0.1 = 0.4

2-3
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

c) P( A ′ ∩ B ) + P( A ∩ B ) = P(B). Therefore, P( A ′ ∩ B ) = 0.2 - 0.1 = 0.1


d) P(A) = P( A ∩ B ) + P( A ∩ B′ ). Therefore, P( A ∩ B′ ) = 0.3 - 0.1 = 0.2
e) P(( A ∪ B )') = 1 - P( A ∪ B ) = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6
f) P( A ′ ∪ B ) = P(A') + P(B) - P( A′ ∩ B ) = 0.7 + 0.2 - 0.1 = 0.8

2.77. a) 70/100 = 0.70


b) (79+86-70)/100 = 0.95
c) No, P( A ∩ B ) ≠ 0

2-81. a) P(unsatisfactory) = (5 + 10 – 2)/130 = 13/130


b) P(both criteria satisfactory) = 117/130 = 0.90, No

2-86. P(A) = (1685 + 3733 + 1403)/8493 = 0.8031, P(B) = (170 + 2 + 443 + 14 + 29 + 60 + 46 + 3)/8493 = 0.0903,
P(A ∩ B) = (170 + 443 + 60)/8493 = 0.0792, P(A ∩ B′) = (1515+3290+1343)/8493 = 0.7239
a) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B) = 0.8031 + 0.0903 – 0.0792 = 0.8142
b) P(A ∪ B′) = P(A) + P(B′) – P(A ∩ B′) = 0.8031 + (1 – 0.0903) – 0.7239 = 0.9889
c) P(A′ ∪ B′) = 1 – P(A ∩ B) = 1 – 0.0792 = 0.9208

Section 2-4

7 + 32
2-88. (a) P( A) = = 0.39
100
13 + 7
(b) P ( B ) = = 0.2
100
P( A ∩ B) 7 / 100
(c) P( A | B) = = = 0.35
P( B) 20 / 100
P( A ∩ B) 7 / 100
(d) P ( B | A) = = = 0.1795
P( A) 39 / 100
2-93. Let A denote the event that autolysis is high and let B denote the event that putrefaction is high. The total number of
experiments is 100.
P( A ∩ B' ) 18 / 100
(a) P( B' | A) = = = 0.5625
P( A) (14 + 18) / 100
P( A ∩ B) 14 / 100
(b) P( A | B) = = = 0.1918
P( B) (14 + 59) / 100

P ( A'∩ B' ) 9 / 100


(c) P ( A' | B' ) = = = 0.333
P( B' ) (18 + 9) / 100
2-95. a) 20/100
b) 19/99
c) (20/100)(19/99) = 0.038
d) If the chips were replaced, the probability would be (20/100) = 0.2

Section 2-5

2-106.
P( A ) = P( A ∩ B) + P( A ∩ B ′ )
= P( A B)P(B) + P( A B ′ )P(B ′ )
= ( 0.2)( 0.8 ) + ( 0.3 )( 0.2)
= 0.16 + 0.06 = 0.22

2-4
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

2-112. a)P = 0.13 × 0.73=0.0949


b)P = 0.87 × (0.27+0.17)=0.3828

2-113. Let A and B denote the event that the first and second part selected has excessive shrinkage, respectively.
a) P(B)= P( B A )P(A) + P( B A ')P(A')
= (4/24)(5/25) + (5/24)(20/25) = 0.20
b) Let C denote the event that the third part selected has excessive shrinkage.
P(C ) = P(C A ∩ B) P( A ∩ B) + P(C A ∩ B' ) P( A ∩ B' )
+ P(C A'∩ B) P( A'∩ B) + P(C A'∩ B' ) P( A'∩ B' )
3 ⎛ 4 ⎞⎛ 5 ⎞ 4 ⎛ 20 ⎞⎛ 5 ⎞ 4 ⎛ 5 ⎞⎛ 20 ⎞ 5 ⎛ 19 ⎞⎛ 20 ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟
23 ⎝ 24 ⎠⎝ 25 ⎠ 23 ⎝ 24 ⎠⎝ 25 ⎠ 23 ⎝ 24 ⎠⎝ 25 ⎠ 23 ⎝ 24 ⎠⎝ 25 ⎠
= 0.20

Section 2-6

2-124. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P( A ∩ B ) = 0 and P(A)P(B) = 0.04.


Therefore, A and B are not independent.

10 6
2-134. (a) P = 16
= 10 −10
10
1
(b) P = 0.25 × ( ) = 0.020833
12
2-135. Let A denote the event that a sample is produced in cavity one of the mold.
1
a) By independence, P( A1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3 ∩ A 4 ∩ A 5 ) = ( )5 = 0.00003
8
b) Let Bi be the event that all five samples are produced in cavity i. Because the B's are mutually
exclusive, P(B1 ∪ B 2 ∪...∪B 8 ) = P(B1) + P(B 2 )+...+P(B 8 )
1 1
From part a., P(Bi ) = ( )5 . Therefore, the answer is 8( )5 = 0.00024
8 8
1 7
c) By independence, P( A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3 ∩ A 4 ∩ A '5 ) = ( ) 4 ( ) . The number of sequences in
8 8
1 7
which four out of five samples are from cavity one is 5. Therefore, the answer is 5( ) 4 ( ) = 0.00107 .
8 8

2-141. P(A) = (3*5*3*5)/(4*3*5*3*5) = 0.25, P(B) = (4*3*4*3*5)/(4*3*5*3*5) = 0.8,


P(A ∩ B) = (3*4*3*5) /(4*3*5*3*5) = 0.2
Because P(A)*P(B) = (0.25)(0.8) = 0.2 = P(A ∩ B), A and B are independent.

Section 2-7

P( A B) P( B) P( A B) P( B)
P( B A) = =
2-143. P( A) P( A B) P( B) + P( A B ' ) P( B ' )
0.4 × 0.8
= = 0.89
0.4 × 0.8 + 0.2 × 0.2

2-147. Let G denote a product that received a good review. Let H, M, and P denote products that were high, moderate,
and poor performers, respectively.
a)

2-5
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

P(G ) = P(G H ) P( H ) + P(G M) P( M) + P(G P) P( P)


= 0. 95( 0. 40 ) + 0. 60 ( 0. 35) + 0. 10 ( 0. 25)
= 0. 615
b) Using the result from part a.,
P ( G H ) P ( H ) 0. 95( 0. 40)
P( H G ) = = = 0. 618
P(G ) 0. 615
c) P ( H G ' ) = P ( G ' H ) P ( H ) = 0. 05( 0. 40) = 0. 052
P(G ' ) 1 − 0. 615

2-153. Denote as follows: A = affiliate site, S = search site, B =blue, G =green


P( B | S ) P( S )
P( S | B) =
P( B | S ) P( S ) + P( B | A) P( A)
(0.4)(0.7)
=
(0.4)(0.7) + (0.8)(0.3)
= 0.5

Section 2-8

2-154. Continuous: a, c, d, f, h, i; Discrete: b, e, and g

Supplemental Exercises

2-156. Let "d" denote a defective calculator and let "a" denote an acceptable calculator

a) S = {ddd, add, dda, ada, dad, aad, daa, aaa}


b) A = {ddd, dda, dad, daa}
c) B = {ddd, dda, add, ada}
d) A ∩ B = {ddd, dda}
e) B ∪ C = {ddd, dda, add, ada, dad, aad}

2-161. (a) P(the first one selected is not ionized)=20/100=0.2


(b) P(the second is not ionized given the first one was ionized) =20/99=0.202
(c) P(both are ionized)
= P(the first one selected is ionized) × P(the second is ionized given the first one was ionized)
= (80/100) × (79/99)=0.638
(d) If samples selected were replaced prior to the next selection,
P(the second is not ionized given the first one was ionized) =20/100=0.2.
The event of the first selection and the event of the second selection are independent.

2-164. Let U denote the event that the user has improperly followed installation instructions.

2-6
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition July 2, 2010

Let C denote the event that the incoming call is a complaint.


Let P denote the event that the incoming call is a request to purchase more products.
Let R denote the event that the incoming call is a request for information.
a) P(U|C)P(C) = (0.75)(0.03) = 0.0225
b) P(P|R)P(R) = (0.50)(0.25) = 0.125

2-165. (a) P = 1 − (1 − 0.002)100 = 0.18143


(b) P = C3 (0.998 )0.002 = 0.005976
1 2

(c) P = 1 − [(1 − 0.002)100 ]10 = 0.86494


2-167. Let Ai denote the event that the ith readback is successful. By independence,
P ( A 1' ∩ A '2 ∩ A '3 ) = P ( A 1' ) P ( A '2 ) P ( A '3 ) = ( 0. 02 ) 3 = 0. 000008 .

2-180. P(Possess) = 0.95(0.99) +(0.05)(0.90) = 0.9855

2-186. a) By independence, 0.15 5 = 7.59 × 10 −5


b) Let A i denote the events that the machine is idle at the time of your ith request. Using independence,
the requested probability is
P ( A1 A2 A3 A4 A5' or A1 A2 A3 A4' A5 or A1 A2 A3' A4 A5 or A1 A2' A3 A4 A5 or A1' A2 A3 A4 A5 )
= 5(0.15 4 )(0.85 1 )
= 0.000000215

c) As in part b, the probability of 3 of the events is


P ( A1 A2 A3 A4' A5' or A1 A2 A3' A4 A5' or A1 A2 A3' A4' A5 or A1 A2' A3 A4 A5' or A1 A2' A3 A4' A5 or
A1 A2' A3' A4 A5 or A1' A2 A3 A4 A5' or A1' A2 A3 A4' A5 or A1' A2 A3' A4 A5 or A1' A2' A3 A4 A5 )
= 10(0.15 3 )(0.85 2 )
= 0.0244
For the probability of at least 3, add answer parts a) and b) to the above to obtain the requested probability. Therefore,
the answer is 0.0000759 + 0.0022 + 0.0244 = 0.0267

2-194. (a) P=(24/36)(23/35)(22/34)(21/33)(20/32)(19/31)=0.069


(b) P=1-0.069=0.931

5 + 25 + 30 + 7 + 20
2-196. (a) P( A) = = 0.087
1000
25 + 7
(b) P ( A ∩ B ) = = 0.032
1000
800
(c) P ( A ∪ B ) = 1 − = 0.20
1000
63 + 35 + 15
(d) P ( A'∩B) = = 0.113
1000
P( A ∩ B) 0.032
(e) P ( A | B ) = = = 0.2207
P( B) (25 + 63 + 15 + 7 + 35) / 1000
5
(f) P = = 0.005
1000

2-7

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