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Model Uncertainty in Aircraft Impact Analysis

The document discusses model uncertainty in aircraft impact analysis. It explores various analysis techniques, finite element models, impact scenarios, and sources of uncertainty. The results from two analyst teams using different codes, models, and scenarios still showed similar failure scenarios, safety assessments, and necessary corrective measures, despite a 50% variation in responses due to uncertainties inherent in impact analysis problems.

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35 views17 pages

Model Uncertainty in Aircraft Impact Analysis

The document discusses model uncertainty in aircraft impact analysis. It explores various analysis techniques, finite element models, impact scenarios, and sources of uncertainty. The results from two analyst teams using different codes, models, and scenarios still showed similar failure scenarios, safety assessments, and necessary corrective measures, despite a 50% variation in responses due to uncertainties inherent in impact analysis problems.

Uploaded by

dcdbg
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Model

Uncertainty in
Aircraft Impact Analysis
Marin Kostov, Alexander Iliev, Anton Andonov, Kiril Apostolov

Risk Engineering Ltd

Reliability, Safety and Management


Engineering and Software Development Services
BulAtom, June 4, 2012
FEM
Programs

Analysis Material
Technique Properties

Uncertainty

FEM Load
Models Application

Response
Location

RISK ENGINEERING LTD.


Reliability, Safety and Management 2
BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
ABAQUS LS DYNA RADIOSS
IMPACT (open source)
SOLVIA and many others

Analysis Technique

Implicit Integration Explicit Integration

G(Y(t), Y(t+dt))=0 Y(t+dt)=F(Y(t))

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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
Shell Model Solid Model

Number of nodes 72128 Number of nodes 195002


Total number of elements 86627 Total number of elements 247679
Number of equations 386857 Number of equations 806305

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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
Locations at the Locations at the
Reactor pit Steam generator
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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Reliability, Safety and Management 5
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Riera Method FEA Simulation

F(t)=Re[x(t)]+μ[x(t)]V2(t)

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Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
V=100-110m/s V=100-140m/s V=100-160m/s

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RISK ENGINEERING LTD.
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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
RISK ENGINEERING LTD.
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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
RISK ENGINEERING LTD.
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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
RISK ENGINEERING LTD.
Reliability, Safety and Management 13
BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Engineering and Software Development Services
RISK ENGINEERING LTD.
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Engineering and Software Development Services
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 The aircraft impact analysis contains a large
number of uncertainties due to the nature of the
problem.
 The presented results are based on
‐ two different analyst teams,
‐ two different finite element codes,
‐ two different finite element models
‐ two different impact load definition
‐ wide range of impact scenarios which covers
different impact locations and velocities

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BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Reliability, Safety and Management 16
Engineering and Software Development Services
 The variation of the response is in order of 50%
which is normal for such kind of analysis.
 Nevertheless the large number of uncertainties
there is no variation of the conclusions:
‐ no variation of the failure scenario
‐ no variation of the safety assessment
‐ no variation on the corrective measures

RISK ENGINEERING LTD.


BulAtom, June 4, 2012 Reliability, Safety and Management 17
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