Sustainable Transformation of Yemen's Energy System

S T U DY
CL I M AT E CH A N GE, EN ERGY A N D EN V I RO N M EN T
By applying a phase model for
SUSTAINABLE
the renewables-based energy
transition in the MENA
countries to Yemen, the study
provides a guiding vision to
TRANSFORMATION
support the strategy
development and steering of
the energy transition process
OF YEMEN’S
ENERGY SYSTEM The »solar revolution« in
Yemen is focused on small,
decentralised applications and
is mainly driven by energy
scarcity as a result of the
Development of a Phase Model ongoing conflict.
Sibel Raquel Ersoy, Julia Terrapon-Pfaff,

A shift towards a sustainable
Marwan Dhamrin and Abdulrahman Baboraik
energy system in Yemen could
May 2022
contribute to improving the
humanitarian situation by pro-
viding a secure and affordable
electricity supply, achieving
environmental benefits, and
offering long-term economic
opportunities.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – Sustainable Transformation of Yemen’s Energy System
CL I M AT E CH A N GE, EN ERGY A N D EN V I RO N M EN T
SUSTAINABLE
TRANSFORMATION
OF YEMEN’S
ENERGY SYSTEM
Development of a Phase Model
Contents
Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 2
2 CONCEPTUAL MODEL 4
2.1 The Original Phase Models ........................................................................ 4

2.2 The Multi-Level Perspective and the Three Stages of Transitions ............... 4
2.3 Additions in the MENA Phase Model ....................................................... 4
3 THE MENA PHASE MODEL 6
3.1 Specific Characteristics of the MENA Region ............................................ 6

3.2 Adaptation of Model Assumptions According to the Characteristics
of the MENA Countries ............................................................................. 6
3.3 Phases of the Energy Transition in MENA Countries ................................. 6
3.4 Transfer of the Phase Model to the Country Case of Yemen .................... 7
3.5 Data Collection ......................................................................................... 8
4 APPLICATION OF THE MODEL TO YEMEN 12
4.1 Categorisation of the Energy System Transformation in Yemen

According to the Phase Model .................................................................. 12
4.2 Outlook for the Next Phases of the Transition Process .............................. 31
5 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 33
Bibliography .............................................................................................. 34
List of Abbreviations .................................................................................. 36
List of Units and Symbols .......................................................................... 36
List of Tables .............................................................................................. 37
List of Figures ............................................................................................ 37
1
INTRODUCTION
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a wide oped ambitious plans to scale up their RE production. The
array of challenges, including rapidly growing population, significant potential in the MENA region for RE production,
slowing economic growth, high rates of unemployment, in particular wind and solar power, creates an opportunity
and significant environmental pressures. These challenges both to produce electricity that is almost CO2 neutral and to
are exacerbated by global and regional issues, such as cli- boost economic prosperity. However, most countries in the
mate change. The region, which is already extremely vul- region still use fossil fuels as their dominant energy source,
nerable due to its geographical and ecological conditions, and dependency on fossil fuel imports in some of the highly
will become more affected by the negative consequences of populated countries poses a risk in terms of energy security
climate change in the future. Drought and temperatures will and public budget spending.
increase in what is already one of the most water-stressed
regions in the world. With large sections of the population A transition towards a renewables-based energy system in-
concentrated in urban areas in the coastal regions, people volves large-scale deployment of RE technology, the devel-
will also be more vulnerable to water shortages, storms, opment of enabling infrastructure, the implementation of
floods, and temperature increases. In the agricultural sec- appropriate regulatory frameworks, and the creation of new
tor, climate change effects are expected to lead to lower markets and industries. Therefore, a clear understanding of
production levels, while food demand will increase due to socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system and
population growth and changing consumption patterns. the principal dynamics of system innovation is crucial, and a
Moreover, the risk of damage to critical infrastructure is clear vision of the goal and direction of the transformation
increasing, and expenditure for repairs and new construc- process facilitates the targeted fundamental change (We-
tion is placing additional strain on already scarce financial ber and Rohracher, 2012). An enhanced understanding of
resources. These multi-layered challenges, arising from the transition processes can, therefore, support a constructive
interplay of economic, social, and climatic aspects, should dialogue about future energy system developments in the
not be ignored, as they pose serious risks to prosperity and MENA region. It can also enable stakeholders to develop
economic and social development – and ultimately to the strategies for a transition towards a renewables-based en-
stability of the region. ergy system.
Energy issues are embedded in many of these challenges. To support such understanding, a phase model for renew-
The region is characterised by a high dependence on oil and ables-based energy transitions in the MENA countries has
natural gas to meet its energy needs. Although the region been developed. This model structures the transition pro-
is a major energy producer, many of the MENA countries cess over time through a set of transition phases. It builds
are struggling to meet growing domestic energy demand. on the German phase model and is further complemented
Transitioning to energy systems that are based on renew- by insights into transition governance and characteristics
able energy (RE) is a promising way to meet this growing of the MENA region. The phases are defined according to
energy demand. The transition would also help to reduce the main elements and processes shaping each phase, and
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Paris Agree- the qualitative differences between phases are highlighted.
ment. In addition, the use of RE has the potential to increase The focus of each phase is on technological development;
economic growth and local employment and reduce fiscal at the same time, insights into interrelated developments
constraints. in markets, infrastructure and society are provided. Com-
plementary insights from the field of sustainability research
Against the backdrop of rapidly growing energy demand provide additional support for the governance of long-term
due to population growth, changing consumer behaviour, change in energy systems along the phases. Consequently,
increasing urbanisation, and other factors – including in- the phase model provides an overview of a complex transi-
dustrialisation, water desalination, and the increased use of tion process and facilitates the early development of policy
electricity for cooling – RE is gaining attention in the MENA strategies and policy instruments according to the require-
region. To guarantee long-term energy security and to meet ments of the different phases that combine to form the
climate change goals, most MENA countries have devel- overarching guiding vision.
2
Introduction
In this study, the MENA phase model is applied to the case

of Yemen. The current state of development in Yemen is
assessed and analysed against the phase model. Expert
interviews were conducted to gain insights to specify the
previously defined abstract components of the model. As a
result, further steps for the energy transition (based on the
steps of the phase model) are proposed. This application is
based on findings from previous studies and projects con-
ducted in the MENA region, while case study specific data
was collected for this study by local partners.
3
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
2.1 THE ORIGINAL PHASE MODELS1 At »landscape« level, pervasive trends such as demographic
shifts, climate change, and economic crises affect the »re-
The phase model for energy transitions towards renewa- gime« and »niche« level. The »regime« level captures the so-
bles-based low-carbon energy systems in the MENA coun- cio-technical system that dominates the sector of interest. In
tries was developed by Fischedick et al. (2020). It builds on this study, the regime is the energy sector. It comprises the ex-
the phase models for the German energy system transfor- isting technologies, regulations, user patterns, infrastructure,
mation by Fischedick et al. (2014) and Henning et al. (2015). and cultural discourses that combine to form socio-technical
The latter developed a four-phase model for transforming systems. To achieve system changes at the »regime« level, in-
the German energy system towards a decarbonised energy novations at the »niche« level are incremental because they
system based on REs. The four phases of the models cor- provide the fundamental base for systemic change (Geels,
relate with the main assumptions deduced from the fun- 2012)this paper introduces a socio-technical approach which
damental characteristics of RE sources, labelled as follows: goes beyond technology fix or behaviour change. Systemic
»Take-off REs«, »System Integration«, »Power-to-Fuel/Gas transitions entail co-evolution and multi-dimensional inter-
(PtF/G)«, and »Towards 100% Renewables’. actions between industry, technology, markets, policy, cul-
ture and civil society. A multi-level perspective (MLP. Within
The four phases are crucial to achieve a fully r enewables-based the transition phases, three stages can be distinguished:
energy system. In the first phase, RE technologies are devel- »niche formation«, »breakthrough«, and »market-based
oped and introduced into the market. In the second phase, growth«. In the »niche formation« stage, a niche develops
dedicated measures for the integration of renewable electric- and matures. In the »breakthrough« stage, the niche inno-
ity into the energy system are introduced. These include flex- vation spreads and when the niche innovation becomes fully
ibility of the residual fossil power production, development price-competitive and specific supportive policy mechanisms
and integration of storage, and activation of demand side are no longer needed, the »market-based growth« stage is
flexibility. In the third phase, the long-term storage of re- achieved. RE technologies are, at this stage, fully integrated
newable electricity to balance periods where supply exceeds into the system.
demand is made essential. This further increases the share
of renewables. PtF/G applications become integral parts
of the energy system at this stage, and imports of renew- 2.3 ADDITIONS IN THE MENA PHASE
ables-based energy carriers gain importance. In the fourth MODEL
phase, renewabl es fully replace fossil fuels in all sectors.
Assuming that the phase model for the German energy
transition by Fischedick et al. (2014) and Henning et al.
2.2 THE MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE AND (2015) is relevant for the MENA countries, the four transition
THE THREE STAGES OF TRANSITIONS phases remain the same. Since niche formation processes
are required for successfully upscaling niche innovations, a
To describe the long-term changes in energy systems in »niche« layer was added into the original phase model by
these four phases, the phase model is supplemented by Fischedick et al. (2020). A specific cluster of innovations was
insights from the field of sustainability transition research. identified for each phase: RE technologies (phase 1), flexi-
Energy transitions cannot be completely steered, nor are bility options (phase 2), PtF/G technologies (phase 3), and
they totally predictable. The involvement of many actors sectors such as heavy industry or aviation that are difficult to
and processes creates a high level of interdependency and decarbonise (phase 4). In its breakthrough stage, each inno-
uncertainty surrounding technological, economic, and so- vation cluster is dependent on the niche-formation process
cio-cultural developments. The multi-level perspective (MLP) of the previous phase. Consequently, the addition of the
is a prominent framework that facilitates the conceptualis- »niche layer« creates a stronger emphasis on the processes
ation of transition dynamics (Fig. 2-1). that must occur to achieve the system targets (Fig. 2-2).
1 Text is based on Holtz et al. (2018).
4
Conceptual Model
Figure 2-1
The Multi-Level Perspective
Socio-technical landscape
(exogenous context)
Landscape developments put pressure on

existing regime, which opens up, creating
windows of opportunity for novelties.
New regime
influences
Markets, user landscape
preferences
Industry
Science
Policy
Socio-technical Culture
regime Technology
Socio-technical regime is »dynamically stable«.

On different dimensions there are ongoing processes. New configuration breaks through, taking advantage
of »windows of opportunity«. Adjustments occur in
socio-technical regime.
External influences on niches Elements become aligned,

(via expectations and networks) and stabilise in a dominant design.
Internal momentum increases.
Niche-
innovations
Small networks of actors support novelties on the basis of expectations and visions.
Learning processes take place on multiple dimensions (co-construction).
Efforts to link different elements in a seamless web.
Time
Source: Geels and Schot, 2007
Figure 2-2
Transition Phase Model for the MENA Region
Phase IV:
Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Towards 100%
Take-off RE System Integration PtF/G Renewables
Share of RE in Energy
and Electricity System
Time
Special PtF/G applications + exports NF BT MBG
Power-to-fuel / gases NF BT MBG
Flexibility options NF BT MBG
Re Supply NF BT MBG
NF: Niche Formation BT: Break-Through MBG: Market-Based Growth

Source: Holtz et al., 2018
5
THE MENA PHASE MODEL
3.1 SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF 3.2 ADAPTATION OF MODEL

THE MENA REGION ASSUMPTIONS ACCORDING TO THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MENA
One of the fundamental difference to the German context COUNTRIES
is the growing trend in energy demand in the MENA region.
According to BP (2019), the Middle East will face an an- The phases of the original phase model were adapted to
nual increase in energy demand of around 2% until 2040. correspond to the characteristics of the MENA region.
Furthermore, the energy intensity in many MENA countries
is high, due to low insulation quality in buildings, techni- In order to meet the expected increase in the overall energy
cal inefficiencies of cooling and heating technologies, and demand, the volume of renewables in phases 1 and 2 rises
distribution infrastructure. The electricity losses in distribu- considerably without undermining the existing business of
tion are between 11% and 15% in stable MENA countries industries that provide fossil fuel and natural gas. The grid
compared to 4% in Germany (The World Bank, 2019). in the MENA countries is limited in its ability to accommo-
Although the MENA region does benefit from significant date rising shares of renewables, which results in greater
RE resources, much of the economic RE potential remains emphasis on grid retrofitting and expansion during phase
untapped. By exploiting this potential, most of the countries 1. Moreover, phase 2 must start earlier than in the German
could become self-sufficient in terms of energy, and they case, and the development in some countries could include
could eventually become net exporters of renewables-based a stronger focus on solutions for off-grid applications and
energy. small isolated grids. While in Germany imports play a con-
siderable role in the later phases, excess energy in the MENA
Another difference is that the electricity grid in Germany is countries could be exported and offer potential economic
fully developed, whereas most of the MENA countries have opportunities in phase 4. The growing global competitive-
grid systems that need to be expanded, developed nation- ness of REs offers the opportunity to accelerate the niche
ally, and connected cross-border. Physical interconnections formation stages in all phases of the transition. However,
exist, but these are mainly in regional clusters (The World niche formation processes would have to be integrated into
Bank, 2013). Therefore, the region lacks the necessary domestic strategies. Institutions to support niche develop-
framework for electricity trade. ments would need to be established and adapted to the
country context.
The MENA countries could benefit considerably from global
advances in RE technologies. While the phase model for the
German context assumed that RE technologies need time to 3.3 PHASES OF THE ENERGY
mature, the phase model for the MENA context can include TRANSITION IN MENA COUNTRIES
cost reductions. However, the conditions for developing RE
industries are weak due to a lack of supporting frameworks Phase 1 – »Take-Off REs«
for entrepreneurship and technological innovation. While
in Germany private actors play a major role in small-scale Renewable electricity is already introduced into the electric-
photovoltaic (PV) and wind power plants, state-owned com- ity system before the first phase, »Take-off RE«, is reached.
panies and large-scale projects take centre stage in most Developments at the »niche« level, such as assessing
countries in the MENA region. The mobilisation of capital is regional potential, local pilot projects, forming networks
an additional significant factor that would require dedicated of actors, and sharing skills and knowledge about the do-
strategies. mestic energy system, are initial indicators that diffusion is
starting. During this pre-phase stage, visions, and expecta-
tions for the expansion of RE-based energy generation are
developed.
6
The MENA Phase Model
In the first phase, the characteristic development at the sectors, in particular, contribute to an increase in the ap-
system level is the introduction and initial increase of RE, plication of PtF/G. This, in turn, enables the replacement of
particularly electricity generated by PV and wind plants. As fossil fuels and natural gas. The development of hydrogen
energy demand in the region is growing considerably, the infrastructure and the retrofitting of existing oil and gas
share of RE entering the system would not be capable of infrastructure for the use of synthetic fuels and gases cre-
replacing fossil fuels at this stage. To accommodate variable ate dedicated renewable supply facilities for international
levels of RE, the grid must be extended and retrofitted. Laws exports. Price reductions and the introduction of fees and
and regulations come into effect, aiming to integrate re- taxes on fossil fuels not only have a negative influence on
newables into the energy system. The introduction of price their market conditions, but they also initiate the phase-out
schemes as incentives for investors facilitates the large-scale of fossil fuels. These developments stimulate changes in
deployment of RE and decentralised PV for households. the business models. As PtF/G solutions provide long-term
storage, considerable export market structures can be es-
Developments occurring at the »niche« level pave the way tablished.
for phase 2. The regional potential of different flexibility op-
tions is assessed (e.g. the possibilities for pump storage and At the »niche« level, experiments with PtF/G applications
demand-side management (DSM) in industry), and visions play an essential role in sectors that are difficult to decar-
are developed that broach the issue of flexibility options. At bonise, such as heavy industry (concrete, chemicals, steel),
this stage, the role of sector coupling (e.g. e-mobility, pow- heavy transport, and shipping. In addition, the potential to
er-to-heat) is discussed, and business models are explored. export hydrogen as well as synthetic fuels and gases is ex-
plored and assessed.
Phase 2 – »System Integration«
Phase 4 – »Towards 100% Renewables«
In phase 2, the expansion of RE continues at the »system«
level, while growing markets still provide room for the Renewable-based energy carriers gradually replace the
co-existence of fossil fuel-based energy. The grid extension residual fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are phased out, and PtF/G
continues, and efforts to establish cross-border and transna- is fully developed in terms of infrastructure and business
tional power lines are made to balance regional differences models. As support for renewables is no longer required,
in wind and solar supply. At this stage, flexibility potentials price supporting schemes are phased out. Export market
(DSM, storage) are recognised, and the electricity market structures are expanded and constitute a crucial sector of
design is adapted to accommodate these options. The infor- the economy.
mation and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure
is fully integrated with the energy system (digitalisation). At Table 31 summarises the main developments in the »tech-
the political level, regulations in the electricity, mobility, and no-economic« and »governance« layers, as well as on the
heat sectors are aligned to provide a level playing field for »landscape«, »system«, and »niche« levels during the four
different energy carriers. The direct electrification of applica- phases.
tions in the mobility, industry, and heat sectors adds further
flexibility to the system.
3.4 TRANSFER OF THE PHASE MODEL
PtF/G applications are developed at the »niche« level to pre- TO THE COUNTRY CASE OF YEMEN
pare the system for a breakthrough in phase 3. Pilot projects
test the application of synthetic fuels and gases under local The MENA phase model originally applied to the Jordan case
conditions. Green hydrogen is expected to replace fossil fu- in Holtz et al. (2018) was applied and partly adapted in the
els in sectors such as chemical production. Actor networks course of this project for nine countries in the MENA region,
create and share knowledge and skills in the field of PtF/G. one of which is Tunisia. The aspects associated to the differ-
Based on an assessment of the potentials for different PtF/G ent phases of the model were discussed with policymakers,
conversion routes, strategies and plans for infrastructure representatives from science, industry, and civil society in
development are elaborated, and business models are ex- the respective countries. Based on the experience in Jordan
plored. the model proved to be a helpful tool to support discussions
about strategies and policymaking in regard to the energy
Phase 3 – »PtF/G« transition in MENA countries. The results of the application
to Yemen illustrate a structured overview of the continuous
At the »system« level, the share of renewables increases in developments in Yemen’s energy system. Furthermore, they
the electricity mix, leading to intensified competition be- provide insights into the next steps required to transform
tween renewables and fossil fuels and – temporarily – to Yemen’s energy system into a renewables-based system.
high, negative residual loads. Green hydrogen and synthetic
fuel production become more competitive due to the availa- In order to reflect the specific challenges and opportunities
bility of low-cost electricity. PtF/G, supported by regulations for the energy transition in Yemen, some adaptations to the
including pricing schemes, enter the market and absorb criteria set of the MENA phase model were made on the
increasing shares of »surplus« renewables during times landscape level as well. These include factors such as the
of high supply. The mobility and long-distance transport
7
coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and glob-

al decarbonisation efforts in light of the Paris agreement.
These aspects have either already affected or will affect the
international oil and gas prices and the sector development.
Furthermore, details about the dominant role of fossil fuels
in the energy system and related challenges for the develop-
ment of the renewable sector have been assessed. Table 3-1
depicts the developments during the transition phases.
3.5 DATA COLLECTION
Detailed information on the status and current develop-

ments of the various dimensions (supply, demand, infra-
structure, actor network, and market development) was
compiled in order to apply the phase model to individual
country situations. In a first step, a comprehensive review
of the relevant literature and available data was conducted.
Based on the evaluation and analysis of the available data,
information gaps were identified. The missing information
was completed with the help of expert interviews and on-site
research by local partner institutions. In addition, the local
partner organisations helped to identify the country-specific
challenges and barriers that could hinder the unlocking of
the RE potential in the country. The interviewees included
relevant stakeholders with experience in the energy sector
or related sectors from policy institutions, academia, and
the private sector. The expert interviews were conducted ac-
cording to guidelines for structured interviews. The quanti-
tative data used is mostly based on secondary sources, such
as databases from the International Energy Agency (IEA)
and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA),
or was calculated using available data to identify the current
status and future trends.
Expert interviews were carried out in Yemen by the local

partners of Yemen Solar, Prof. Marwan Dhamrin and Dr.
Abdulrahman Baboraik. They also contributed to the inves-
tigation of the country-specific challenges and barriers that
could hinder the unlocking of the RE potential in the coun-
try. The main interview partners are relevant stakeholders
with several years of experience in Yemen’s energy sector
from political institutions, academia, and the private sector.
8
Table 3-1
Developments During the Transition Phases
Development Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Phase IV:

before »Take-Off RE« »System Integration RE« »Power-to-Fuel/Gas »Towards 100% RE’
phase I (PtF/G)«
* Niche * Breakthrough RE * Market-based growth RE * Market-based growth * Market-based growth

formation RE * Niche formation flexibility * Breakthrough flexibility flexibility option PtF/G
option option * Breakthrough PtF/G * Breakthrough special PtF/G
* Niche formation PtF/G * Niche formation special application and exports
PtF/G application and
exports
* International frameworks on climate change
Landscape
* Decarbonisation efforts of industrialised countries (incl. green recovery programmes after COVID-19 pandemic)
* Global and regional conflicts (affecting trade)
level
* Long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy

* Geographic conditions and natural resource distribution
* Demographic development
* RE share in energy system * RE share in energy system * RE share in energy system * RE share in energy system
about 0%–20% about 20%-50% about 50%-80% about 80%-100%
* Market introduction of * Further grid extension * Extension of long-term * Large-scale construction
RE drawing on globally (national and international) storage (e.g., storage of of infrastructure for PtF/G
available technology and synthetic gas) exports
driven by global price drop
* Extension and retrofitting * ICT structures integrate * First PtF/G infrastructure is * Phase-out of fossil fuel
of electricity grid with energy systems (e.g., constructed (satisfying up- infrastructure and business
introduction of smart coming national/foreign models
meters) demand)
* Regulations and pricing * System penetration of * Temporarily high negative * Consolidation of RE-based
schemes for RE flexibility options (e.g., residual loads due to high export models
battery storage) shares of RE
* Developing and * Direct electrification * Sales volumes of fossil * Full replacement of fossil
strengthening domestic of applications in the fuels start to shrink fuels by RE and RE-based
Power Sector
supply chains for RE buildings, mobility, and fuels

Techno-economic layer
industry sectors; changing

business models in those
System level
sectors (e.g., heat pumps,

e-cars, smart-home systems,
marketing of load shedding
of industrial loads)
* No replacement of fossil * No replacement (or only * Existing fossil fuel-based * Stabilisation of PtF/G
fuels due to growing limited replacement) of business models start to business models and
markets fossil fuels due to growing change production capacities (e.g.
markets large-scale investments)
* Development and * Increasing volumes of
extension of mini-grids PtF/G in transport, replacing
as a solution for off-grid fossil fuels and natural gas
applications and remote
locations
* Progressing the energy
transition in end-use sectors
(transport, industry, and
buildings)
* Progressing the energy
transition in the industry
sector, reducing the high
carbon content of certain
products and high emissions
of certain processes
9

phase I (PtF/G)«

exports
* Fundamental * Support adoption of RE * Put pressure on fossil fuel- * Put pressure on system * Put pressure on fossil fuels
recognition (e.g. feed-in tariffs), set based electricity regime components that counteract (e.g. phase out production)
that energy up regulations and price (e.g. reduction of subsidies, flexibility (e.g. phase out
efficiency is schemes for RE carbon pricing) base-load power plants)
the second
strategic
pillar of the
energy system
transformation
• Increasing participation * Withdraw support for * Withdraw support for * Withdraw support for
of institutional investors RE (e.g. phase out feed-in flexibility options PtF/G
(pension funds, insurance tariffs)
companies, endowments,
and sovereign wealth funds)
in the transition
* Increasing awareness of * Measures to reduce * Measures to reduce * Measures to reduce
environmental issues unintended side-effects of unintended side-effects of unintended side-effects of
RE (if any) flexibility options (if any) PtF/G (if any)
* Provide access to * Adaptation of market * Set up regulations and * Access to infrastructure
infrastructure and design to accommodate price schemes for PtF/G and markets (e.g. connect
markets for RE (e.g. set up flexibility options (e.g. transport, replace fossil production sites to
regulations for grid access) fuels and natural gas) pipelines)
* Moderate efforts to * Provide access to markets * Reduce prices paid for * Support adoption (e.g.
accelerate efficiency for flexibility options (e.g. fossil fuel-based electricity subsidies)
improvements adaptation of market
design, alignment of
electricity, mobility, and
Governance layer
heat-related regulations)
Power Sector
System level
* Support creation and * Provide access to

activation of flexibility infrastructure and markets
options (e.g. tariffs for bi- for PtF/G (e.g. retrofit
directional loading of e-cars) pipelines for transport of
synthetic gases/fuels)
* Facilitate sector coupling * Support adoption of PtF/G
between power and end- (e.g. tax exemptions)
use sectors to support the
integration of VRE in the
power sector
* Adaptation of market
design to accommodate
flexibility options
* Investments reallocated
towards low-carbon
solutions: high share of RE
investments and reduce the
risk of stranded assets
* Alignment of socio-
economic structures and the
financial system; broader
sustainability and transition
requirements
* Facilitate sector coupling
between power and end-
use sectors to facilitate the
integration of VRE in the
power sector
* Alignment of electricity,
mobility, and heat-related
regulations
10

phase I (PtF/G)«

exports
* Assessment * Assessment of regional * Assessment of potential for * Experiment with PtF/G
of RE potential potential for different different PtF/G conversion applications in sectors
flexibility options routes such as industry (e.g. steel,
cement, and chemical
sectors) and special
transport (e.g. aviation,
shipping)
* Local pilot * Experiment with flexibility * Local pilot projects with * Invest in business models
projects with options PtF/G generation based on for PtF/G exports
Techno-economic layer
RE RE hydrogen and carbon

capture (e.g. CCU/CCS)
* Exploration of business * Exploration of PtF/G-based * Pilot synthetic fuel exports
models around flexibility business models
options including ICT
start-ups and new digital
business models for sector
coupling
* Exploration of new DSM
potentials (e.g. smart
charging and vehicle-to-
grid for EV, flexible heat
pump heating and cooling,
thermal storage fed by
electricity)
* Tap into global experiences
Power Sector
of PtF/G
Niche level
* Development * Development of visions * Development of shared * Development of shared

of shared and expectations for flex- visions and expectations visions and expectations
visions and market and energy system for PtF/G (e.g. strategy and for PtF/G exports (e.g.
expectations integration (regional and plans for infrastructure about target markets and
for RE transnational energy development/adaptation) locations for conversion
development markets) steps)
* Support * Support learning processes * Support learning * Support learning about
learning around flexibility (e.g. local processes around PtF/G PtF/G in sectors such
processes projects) (e.g. local projects for as industry and special
around RE (e.g. PtF/G generation, tap transport (e.g. experiments
local projects) global experiences of PtF/G, for using PtF/G products for
exploration of PtF/G-based glass smelting)
Governance layer
business models)
* Formation * Formation of actor * Formation of PtF/G-related * Support learning
of RE-related networks around actor network (national and around PtF/G exports
actor networks flexibility across electricity, international) (e.g. concerning market
(e.g. joint mobility, heat sectors (e.g. acceptance and trade
ventures) exploration of business regulations)
models around flexibility
including ICT start-ups and
new digital business models
for sector coupling)
• Community- * Development of a * Formation of actor
based shared knowledge base of networks for creating large-
engagement integrated decarbonisation scale synthetic fuel export
and pathways to enable structures (e.g. producers,
involvement alignment and critical mass trading associations,
(e.g. citizen that can help shift the entire marketplaces)
initiatives) sector
* Continuing improvements in energy efficiency
* Continuing the reduction of material intensity through efficiency measures and circular economy principles
(Source: Own creation)
11
APPLICATION OF THE MODEL TO YEMEN
Factsheet for the transition towards a renewables-based energy sys-

tem.
Paris Agreement ratified ✔
Green growth strategy ✗ 4.1.1 Assessment of the Current State

and Trends at the Landscape and System
Renewable energy targets set ✔ Levels
This section discusses the current state and trends of Yem-
Regulatory policies for en’s energy system in terms of supply, demand, the fossil
RE implementation established (✗) fuel sector, RE, infrastructure, actor network, and market
development.
Energy efficiency strategy existing ✗
Power-to-X (PtX) strategy ✗ Energy Supply and Demand
Yemen’s energy supply is characterised by critical shortages

and power deficiencies. This situation has intensified during
4.1 CATEGORISATION OF THE ENERGY the military operations since 2015. In 2018, Yemen’s total
SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN YEMEN final energy consumption was 2,051 ktoe (IEA, 2020a). The
ACCORDING TO THE PHASE MODEL residential sector dominated energy consumption (31%),
followed by the transport sector (43%), industry (16%), and
Yemen has been devasted by civil wars and political unrest others (10%) (IEA, 2020a) (Fig. 4-1).
in the past decades. The conflicts have left their mark on
the country, which has been labeled by UNICEF (2021) as In 2018, the energy mix was dominated by fossil fuels
»one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world«. As a (Fig. 4-2), with heavy fuel oil (HFO), light fuel oil (LFO), and
result of the war, the public electricity grid was destroyed, diesel constituting around 90%, natural gas accounting for
leaving the majority of citizens without electricity. Thus, 3%, coal for 2%, while biofuels and waste had in total a
the use of decentralised solar technology has become an share of 4%, and other REs 1% (IEA, 2020a).
important alternative for the generation of electricity for
self-consumption. Yemen’s current electricity demand remains unserved for
most governorates. Although the Public Electricity Corpo-
However, Yemen’s energy mix and economy are still domi- ration (PEC), which runs the electricity transmission and
nated by fossil fuels. Revenues from oil production consti- power production in Yemen, has an installed capacity of
tute the largest share of the country’s government revenues 1.5 GW, the actual power production remains well below
and exports. Consequently, the country’s economy is ex- the actual available nominal capacity (Almohamadi, 2021).
posed to the fluctuations of oil prices in the world market. After 2013, barely around 1.1 GW of the installed capacity
Moreover, generous fuel and electricity subsidies exacerbate was utilised. This is due to the closure of several generation
the fiscal situation of Yemen (Atamanov, 2017). Against this units in the power plants because of their low efficiency,
background, RE technologies have become relevant for in- constant failures, high losses in the power system, and grid
creasing the electricity supply and electricity access in isolat- dismantling and cuts. In addition, there are several isolated
ed areas (Al Asbahi et al., 2020). In the future, renewables grids, such as Hadramaut with a capacity of 150 MW, or
could play a bigger role, seeing as Yemen has rich renewable small isolated grids in Al Mahrah, Sada, and Shabawa. The
potentials, especially for solar, wind, and geothermal energy regions of Sana’a, Aden, Al Hudaydah, Ibb, and Hadramaut
generation (Qasem, 2018). face electricity shortages and outages that last several hours
per day (Mubaarak et al., 2020). According to Mubaarak
This report studies the current energy and electricity status et al. (2020) and expert interviews, Sana’a usually needs a
of Yemen, assesses the country along the phase model, and capacity around 500 MW, while Aden requires 390 MW,
gives a guiding outlook on how to achieve the next phases Hadramaut demands 276 MW, Al Hudaydah and Ibb need
12
Application of the Model to Yemen
Figure 4-1
Total Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe), Yemen 1990–2018
7000
6000
5000
4000
[ktoe]
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Transport Industry Residential

Commercial and public services Non-specified Non-energy use
Agriculture/forestry
Source: data based on IEA (2020a)
Figure 4-2
Total Energy Supply (in ktoe), Yemen 1990–2018
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
[ktoe]
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Oil Natural gas Coal Biofuels and waste
13
280 MW in total, and Taiz requires 111 MW, all of which Electricity consumption in 2018 amounted to around 2.8
cannot be met. TWh, which is almost half the electricity demand in the be-
ginning of the last decade (Fig. 4-3). In the Fichtner electric-
The deficit in the electricity production is a result of outdat- ity projection the following three scenarios were elaborated
ed and inefficient power plants, the destruction of electricity on: installed capacity requirement at 3,081 MW for a base
infrastructure during the war, and sabotage attacks on pow- demand case, 3,658.3 MW for a high demand case, and
er towers and stations (Al-Fakih & Li, 2018; Almohamadi, 1,842.2 MW installed capacity for a lower demand case.
2021). Even with the grid conditions before the war, the These scenarios excluded the industrial and commercial sec-
power infrastructure was too fragile to meet Yemen’s de- tors and considered the 40% of the population connected
mand. The damage caused during the war has exacerbated to the main distribution network. This underlines the current
the situation, leading to a near collapse of the national high latent demand for electricity in Yemen.
electricity grid (Almohamadi, 2021). As a result, the Yemeni
population has the lowest level of electricity access in the Fig. 4-4 depicts electricity generation by source, highlighting
MENA region, for only 40% of the population is connected the role of oil (HFO, LFO, and diesel) as the most important
to electricity (Alkholidi, 2013; Al-Saidi, 2020b; Baharoon et electricity generation source throughout the history of Yem-
al., 2016). There are several small diesel power plants across en’s power supply, with a share between 60–99% in the
the country located in rural areas that are isolated from electricity mix since 2008. In 2009, when the Marib I gas
the national grid. They belong to either the PEC or to the power plant (with an installed capacity of 340 MW) started
private sector. Some of these diesel power plants provide its operation, natural gas diversified the power mix and ac-
electricity just for several hours per day. Rural areas are the counted for 20–40% of the power generation. In 2015, the
most impacted, but industrial and service facilities, hospitals, power plant stopped its operations because of the war. In
commercial shops, and hotels also cannot rely only on the 2018, natural gas held a share of nearly 9%, while solar PV,
grid. Thus, they operate their own diesel-powered back-up for the first time, contributed a record share of 13%.
generators. The lack of electricity access and power shortag-
es affect vulnerable groups as well as the operation of other To sum up, the electricity supply sector in Yemen can be
sectors such as water, sanitation, industrial production, divided into the following three components: 1) the grid
health services, food storage, transportation, and schools connected electricity generation by power plants in Sana’a,
(Al-Saidi, 2020b). Additionally, the energy crisis is respon- Aden, Taiz, Hodeidah, Dhamar, Rada, Yarim, Ibb, Al-Dhale,
sible for water and energy tariff increases that add to the Lahj, Abyan, Amran, Al-Mahwit, and Hajjah; 2) off-grid
financial distress of households and the commercial sector. electricity generation by power plants in Hadhramout,
Plans from several governments to build power plants have Al-Mahra, Socotra, Shabwa, Saada, Al Jauf, and Rayma; and
been discussed and were about to be implemented, but 3) small-scale decentralised electricity generation tradition-
they have been suspended due to the war. ally by diesel generators but increasingly also by solar energy
technologies (Almohamadi, 2021). The war has severely
The typical day and annual load curve are mainly influenced damaged the existing electricity infrastructure, especially
by the household sector, which accounts for around 73% of the central grid, which is concentrated around the urban
the electricity consumption. The peak electricity consump- centres and served only 40% of the population to begin
tion in Yemen is recorded between 7 and 23 pm with aver- with (Ansari et al., 2019). It is estimated that during the
age hourly power demand between 1,300 and 1,500 MWh. war around 55% of the electricity infrastructure has been
The maximum load is at 23 pm, whereas the minimum load damaged and 8% has been destroyed (ibid.).
is recorded at 6 am. During the fasting month of Ramadan,
the load curve deviates from this usual pattern and has a Moreover, the demand for electricity in the grid connected
peak that lasts all night from evening to 4 am. In terms of areas cannot be met. In addition to the supply challenges,
seasons, the minimum load occurs in January and gradually the demand is also growing due to population growth.
increases until it reaches its peak in June, which continues As a result, load shedding occurs daily in a way that basic
until the end of September. Afterwards, the demand de- needs cannot be met and essential public services cannot
creases starting from the end of summer until the end of be provided. To meet daily energy needs, the majority of the
January (PEC, 2021). population, especially in rural areas, use biomass resources
for residential cooking and heating, which contributes to
The electricity consumption per capita rarely exceeds 255 deforestation (Alkholidi, 2013). Industrial companies, hos-
kWh annually, which represents the lowest rate compared pitals, and hotels use private back-up generators in order
to the average per capita rate in the MENA region (2,900 to secure their daily needs. Clearly, Yemen possesses an
kWh) (Almohamadi, 2021). Even with less than 2 million outdated, partly destroyed, and insufficient energy system,
subscribers connected to the national power grid, PEC is which is unable to meet the demand for electricity. Further-
unable to meet the demand. The ongoing conflict widens more, renewables are currently playing only a marginal role
the gap between supply and demand and makes it difficult in the country. Due to these factors, Yemen can be classified
to maintain and upgrade existing power plants or build new as being in the pre-phase of the initial phase described in
ones. the applied MENA phase model.
14
Figure 4-3
Electricity Consumption (in TWh), Yemen 1990–2019
4
[TWh]
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Figure 4-4
Electricity Generation by Source (in TWh), Yemen 1990–2019
5
[TWh]
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Oil Natural gas Solar PV
15
Renewable Energy with solar PV for the water pumping systems. It

is estimated that the annual capacity of the solar
Solar PV energy increased by approximately 200 MW
in 2018 and amounted to 300 MW in 2019.
The annual average solar insolation in Yemen ranges be- 4) Fourth stage (2020 to October 2021): Slightly
tween 5.2–6.8 kWh/m2/day (Al-Ashwal, 2016; Sufian, larger PV systems with a capacity of around more
2019). The governorates of Al Beida and Dhamar in the cen- than 100 kW in the agricultural, commercial, and
tral-western region account for the highest annual average industrial sectors started to be applied. Moreover, in
radiation levels at around 6.8 kWh/m2/day (Sufian, 2019). May 2020, the republican decree for the exemption
The regions of Amran, Sana’a, Ibb, Al-Dhalee, and Marib re- from customs and taxes contributed to increasing
ceive an insolation between 6.6–6.7 kWh/m2/day. The areas the application of the PV systems. In other words,
of Hajjah, Al Mahwit, Al Hodeida, and Al Mahara have the the total capacity of the imported PV systems
lowest insolation levels at 5.4–5.8 kWh/m2/day, while the was around only 250 MW from the beginning
governorates of Al Jowf, Shabwa, and Hadramout receive of 2020 until May 2020, while it reached about
6.0–6.3 kWh/m2/day. Insolation in the Yemeni island Socotra 350 MW after the decree (by the end of 2020).
ranges around 6.6 kWh/m2/day (ibid.). Hence, in general,
Yemen has rather suitable conditions to harvest solar ener- Solar energy rapidly gained popularity, as it provides secure
gy, seeing as the total technical solar potential is estimated and reliable electricity. During the ongoing conflict, solar
at around 17 GW for large scale concentrated solar power energy has, in many regions, become the most important
(CSP) and at 2.2 GW for solar PV systems (Sufian, 2019). energy source for households, particularly the agricultural
sector, which in turn played an important factor in enhanc-
Moreover, renewables benefited from the energy crisis in ing food security during the war and maintaining the stabil-
Yemen. Initially, after the public grid was unable to provide ity of agricultural prices to some extent. It has also become
reliable electricity, the Yemeni population responded by us- a significant energy source for medical and educational
ing more diesel generators (Ansari et al., 2019). However, facilities as well as hotels.
due to fuel shortages, this option became less attractive,
which paved the way for the increasing use of solar energy. According to experts, the current solar generation exceeds
This has been dubbed »Yemen’s solar revolution’. Indeed, the conventional electricity generation. The official govern-
Yemen had already began experimenting with solar ener- mental data reported that in 2013 the actual capacity was
gy in 1980 with its first Solar Research Group at college of 1.1 GW, which was well below the installed capacity of 1.5
Physic in University of Sanna. Nevertheless, real application GW (Almohamadi, 2021). Data after 2013 is nearly una-
of solar energy in Yemen started at a later stage in time and vailable, and experts assume that the actual capacity has
can be described in the following four stages: further decreased since then. According to estimates that
differ from the official statistics, about 1,650 MW of solar
1) First stage (2010–2015): Solar energy became one of systems were installed in 2021. (Fig. 4-5). All of the solar
the methods in off-grid areas to meet the electricity energy generation is private and off-grid. However, not all
demand, and diesel shortages started to develop at this capacity is functioning efficiently due to the low quality
the beginning of the conflict in 2011. Yet, the cost of the solar systems, inaccurate installation, and some dam-
of the PV system was much higher than that of small ages from bombing. Furthermore, professional, qualified
diesel generators, which dominated the market. installation and maintenance of solar energy systems remain
2) Second stage (from the start of the war in 2015 to high challenges in Yemen and often cannot be ensured due
2017): The severe diesel and gas shortages in the to the lack of skilled personnel (Ansari et al., 2019).
country because of the war allowed for solar energy
to become the most popular and suitable option to It is estimated by the Yemeni experts that many of the PV
secure people’s basic needs for electricity.The annual systems installed before 2018 are out of service. Yet, there
capacity of the solar PV energy amounted to 200– is no official data on the performing output of the PV sys-
250 MW. However, cheap and low-quality solar panels tems, which can vary greatly according to the quality of the
dominated the market; according to experts, around modules and the installation expertise from technicians. To
70% of the PV system’s components, mainly modules better evaluate the performance of the solar modules from
and batteries, were forged or were of low quality. 2015–2021, three hypotheses (cases) on the total gener-
3) Third stage (2018–2019): The demand for PV ated electricity output were explored: 1) Solar generated
systems in the residential sector decreased due to base case assumes a performance of 80% of the modules,
the significant failure and weak performance of the 2) solar generated low case assumes a 60% performance
installed PV systems. Most of the people returned for the years 2015–2017 and a 70% performance for the
to buying electricity from local commercial diesel years from 2018 onwards, and 3) solar generated high case
generators owned by the private sector. This, in turn, assumes that all the technical potential of the solar modules
motivated traders to start importing only high-quality can be met, as the installation of the modules follows the
PV components. Furthermore, a large amount of right angle and inclination by the technicians preventing any
PV capacity in the agricultural sector was installed technical losses. Fig. 4-6 depicts the solar generation for the
by farmers, who began to replace diesel systems three cases until 2021 compared to the conventional gen-
16
Figure 4-5
Installed Solar Modules (MW)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
MW
800
600
400
200
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(Source: own compilation, data provided by Marwan Dhamrin)
Figure 4-6
Electricity Generation With Conventional Sources Until 2013 (Statistical Data) and Estimations on Solar Power Generation
After 2015 (GWh)
8000
7000
6000
5000
GWh
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Conventional Generation Solar Generated High Case

Solar Generated Base Case Solar Generated Lower Case
Source: own compilation, data provided by Marwan Dhamrin
17
eration provided by the government owned stations until 7) 256 kW-PV power plant that supplies the water
2013 (private generation is not included). station in the Al Nawaem in Hajah city; and
8) 206 kW-PV power plant that supplies
Accordingly, the solar energy business in Yemen increased Saudi German Hospital in Sana’a City.
remarkably from 2015 onwards. In 2016, the Food and
Agriculture Organisation (FAO) started the Enhanced Rural Despite the boom of small-scale systems, there are current-
Resilience in Yemen (ERRY) project to enhance the resilience ly several main obstacles to developing PV systems above
of rural communities, hence supporting the uptake of solar 50 kW, particularly in the C&I sectors. Firstly, there are finan-
energy (Al-Saidi et al., 2020a). As part of this project, solar cial barriers like the lack of financing mechanisms as well
water pumping systems and solar-powered desalination as difficulties to obtain high-quality components (such as
pilot projects have been established. inverters, control systems, instrumentation and measure-
ment tools) for the hybrid PV systems. Secondly, technical
Despite the customs exemptions that have been implement- challenges, such as the absence of data about the current
ed in May 2020 for renewable technology, the closure of electrical system and insufficient engineering expertise,
the majority of shipping ports greatly contributed to increas- hinder the market expansion. Finally, long-term guarantees
ing PV component prices and to delaying the arrival time of from PV installers and contractors are not provided for the
shipments. Currently, most of the PV components, such as owner. To address some of these challenges, a law was is-
solar panels, batteries, and electric wires, are imported from sued in 2021 to develop local codes and requirements for
China and India. As the majority of the Yemeni ports are installing PV systems in buildings and other facilities.
closed and controlled by Coalition forces, the equipment
enters via Salalah in Oman, then the Yemeni port Shahn, In spite of its overall success, the use of solar energy is char-
and it requires around 3–4 months to reach the main stores acterised by a big geographical discrepancy. While 85% of
in Yemeni cities. Before May 2020, the custom fees on PV the households in mountainous areas around Sana’a own
modules amounted to 18.5%, while the percentage of cus- solar panels, other governorates, where the grid still works
toms on batteries and inverters ranged between 22–24% like in the east, south, and in Aden, have rather small shares
of the total cost. After the introduction of the customs ex- of solar systems (Ansari et al., 2019). The latter regions are
emption law, the tariffs decreased to 3% and 1% for land either connected to the public grid and receive limited sup-
and sea shipments, respectively. This decree of customs ply from PEC, or they have a better access to the supply of
exemptions has been introduced only for the traders who diesel to run conventional generators. Although the imple-
provide quality test certificates according to the internation- mentation of solar energy in Yemen has been successful and
al standards of the International Electrotechnical Commis- is already playing a crucial role in supplying the country with
sion (IEC). As a result, the solar energy market noticed a electricity, barriers to its wider uptake remain.
considerable change in terms of products, as traders and
customers began to realise the importance of purchasing Wind
high-quality PV components rather than cheap products
with a lower quality. First contracts were signed by traders To exploit wind energy resources, a wind resource map
with the international company Trina Solar. In 2020 and has been developed, which shows Yemen’s high wind en-
2021, it is estimated by the Yemeni experts that between ergy potential. Based on this map, the technical potential
45% and 50% of the total shipped PV modules were from for wind power is estimated to be around 34 GW (Sufian,
well-known international companies. For instance, until the 2019). Appropriate sites that could potentially provide more
end of October 2021, 100 MW of Trina PV modules and than 3,000 full load hours would be able to produce around
60 MW of Jinko PV modules were shipped to Yemen. 14 GW, while sites with 3,500 full load hours could gener-
ate 2.5 GW (Al-Ashwal, 2016; Sufian, 2019). The average
Despite the boom of small-scale systems, there are currently annual wind speed at the coastal strip exceeds 8 m/s, re-
no large-scale solar energy projects. The largest PV projects sulting in high potentials for on and off-shore wind energy
in Yemen are as follows: (Alkholidi, 2013). Specifically, the coasts of the Red Sea
and the south-west coastal area of Yemen have high wind
1) 2.2 MW Hadiboh Solar Farm in Socotra used potentials. The north-west area of Mokha, in particular, is
to store and fishes to be exported; one of the most suitable zones for wind power installation.
2) 800 kW Qalansiyah Solar Farm in Socotra used to According to estimates, this region could provide around
operate big refrigerators for fishing industry; 2 GW of wind power, as the average annual wind speed
3) 610 kW-PV power plant that supplies a water amounts to around 7.4 m/s (ibid.). In addition to the poten-
station in Bir Al-Nasser in Aden city; tial wind speeds, advantageous open spaces and the existing
4) 537 kW-PV power plant that supplies a transportation infrastructure make Mokha especially attrac-
water station in Thala in Mukalla city; tive for wind energy projects. Moreover, the Yemeni island
5) 505 kW-PV power station that supplies the water Socotra receives high wind speeds between 5–12 m/s. The
station in the Samah field in Dhamar city; capital Sana’a enjoys wind speeds between 4.1–5.2 m/s,
6) 300 kW-PV power plant that supplies while Aden records wind speeds of 3.7–5.9 m/s, and Taiz
the Republican Hospital; receives 6 m/s as maximum wind speeds (ibid.). However,
despite the wind energy potential being among the best
18
worldwide, there are currently no wind farms operating in tionally, tidal energy assessments concluded that for the
Yemen. Projects that have been developed before the war, same area the annual average tidal height ranges between
such as the Al Mokha at the Red Sea with a capacity of 1–1.5 m. Despite the suggestion for sea-based turbines,
60 MW, have been suspended due to the political turmoil no experimental measurements or pilot studies have been
(Alkholidi, 2013). As well as the ongoing war, the compli- conducted. The southern coast is characterised by a large
cated bureaucratic decision-making structures and the lack temperature difference between the surface and deep-sea
of a dedicated authority are further critical obstacles to the water. This difference could be used to generate electricity
development of wind energy projects, according to experts. and desalinate water through ocean thermal energy pro-
jects. However, the ocean energy technology is still at a
Geothermal very premature stage and faces challenges of high costs.
Therefore, adopting ocean energy is a potential option to
Due to Yemen’s optimal location at the intersection of three generate electricity, but it is neither feasible nor compatible
tectonic plates, the country has a high geothermal energy under the current circumstances.
potential (Sufian, 2019). According to Al-Fakih and Li (2018),
Yemen has eight promising fields for harvesting geothermal Biomass
energy: Al-Lisi Esbil, Damet, Alkafer-Aldrabi, Alsyani-Al-
gandyah, eastern and southeastern Taiz, Resyan-Aldhbub, Yemen could also generate energy from biomass. However,
and Kirsh. These fields could potentially generate 28.5 GW according to Sufian (2019), the potential from crop and for-
(Al-Ashwal, 2016). Furthermore, there was a project to build est residues is minimal. Yet, biogas could be an option for
geothermal power plants in Dhamar city in Alisi and Isbel, large-scale farms or at wastewater treatment plants. For the
as they represent the most promising fields that are close to region of Aden, it is estimated that potentially 0.53 MW of
the national transmission network. The power plants would biogas could be generated for heating, lighting, or cooking
have constituted a total capacity of 125–250 MW, backed (Sufian, 2019). Several small-scale biogas power plants are
by a power purchase agreement (PPA) model. Although the operating in villages within Yemen, and one pilot project
initial engineering works started, the project was suspended (biomass power plant) with a capacity of 100 kW is located
because of the war and local conflict. in Lahj.
According to the experts, the geothermal energy fields in Renewable Energy Regulation
Yemen are distinguished by their location in the middle
of population growth areas, their proximity to agricultural The deployment of RE systems in Yemen started in 2003.
regions that have high carbon dioxide reserves, and their Back then, the government provided funds to increase the
proximity to the national grid, which makes these sources use of small-scale technologies (such as PV systems), espe-
more competitive and economically feasible. cially in remote areas with no access to the national grid
(Baharoon et al., 2016) fuel crises and poverty in Yemen and
Hydro most developing countries is a crucial issue, which is sig-
nificantly influenced by the psychological, contextual, and
Hydropower is considered an unsuitable RE technology in personal factors affecting public acceptance. This study aims
Yemen, as the country has low levels of water availability, to determine the personal and psychological determinants
which is most needed for agricultural production (Sufian, that influence the public’s knowledge of and attitudes and
2019). The wadi riverbeds in Yemen are normally dry, and behavioral intentions toward solar energy use in the power
infrequent peaks and runoff make the water availability sector in urban and rural areas in Yemen. In this study, the
highly uncertain. Water storage projects and reservoirs that people’s behavioral intentions are evaluated by measuring
are under development take into consideration only the use their willingness to pay, willingness to change the currently
of drinking water supply and irrigation and not the electric- used electricity source during power outages, and willing-
ity production. The high evaporation rates and the infra- ness to invest in the feed-in tariff (FiT. Under the Rural Elec-
structure connection to demand centres remain challenging trification Policy Statement (REPS) (approved in July 2008),
for this source of energy. the vision to implement a rural electrification program was
introduced. This, in turn, allowed for the development of
Ocean Energy more off-grid projects in rural areas and focused on the use
of community and consumer-based service providers (Ajlan
Ocean energy has not been considered in the political dis- et al., 2016; The World Bank, 2009). Within this framework,
cussion, although studies have assessed different types of a large number of Solar Home Systems (SHS) have been in-
ocean energy potentials. According to interviewees, wave stalled in off-grid areas.
energy assessments have been conducted in the Red Sea
in the Bab al-Mandab area, but the southern part of the In June 2009, the government approved the National Strat-
coastal area (Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea) was not egy for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency that aimed
included. The results indicate that the wave energy potential to increase the RE share in the electricity mix and to decrease
ranges between 2–3.5 kW/m in this area, with considerable the total expenditure on diesel fuel. The RE targets for grid
wave activities observed during the winter months. Addi- electricity were divided into three different scenarios:
19
1) the high scenario projected a share of 20% renewables Prior to this strategy, a power sector reform strategy was
in the generation mix by 2025 (3,467 GWh); approved in 2001. This strategy aimed at separating gen-
2) the baseline scenario, which was publicly announced eration, transmission, and distribution. It also planned to
in official governmental events, targeted a 15% RE create an independent regulatory agency to enhance the
share in the power sector by 2025 (2,600 GWh); and competition in the generation sector. Its other objectives
3) the low market penetration scenario included transforming the PEC into a corporate facility,
foresaw a share of 10% renewables in the introducing unbundled electricity tariffs, and privatising
generation mix by 2025 (1,733 GWh). electricity businesses (ibid.). These goals, however, have not
yet been implemented.
The off-grid targets for the respective scenarios were set as
follows: The Ex-Minister of Electricity Mustafa Bahran promoted the
Bahran Vision 20/20. This vision concentrated on energy
1) in the high scenario, 160,000 rural households market restructuring, regulations, and policies, aiming to
(65% of the identified market potential) should increase the total electricity production up to 20 GW by the
be electrified with PV systems until 2025, with a end of 2020. The use of gas, wind, geothermal, and CSP
total installed capacity of approximately 8 MWp; were proposed to diversify the electricty mix. This vision,
2) in the baseline scenario, 110,000 rural households nevertheless, has not been approved by the Yemeni gov-
(45% of the identified market potential) should be ernment.
electrified with PV systems until 2025, with a total
installed capacity of approximately 5.5 MWp; and Fig. 4-7 depicts the introduction of the described energy
3) in the low market penetration scenario, 60,000 rural policy measures and the renewable electricity generation
households (25% of the identified market potential) by year. The graph shows that the policy measures did not
should be electrified with PV systems until 2025, with impact the growth in solar energy use. In fact, the growth
a total installed capacity of approximately 2.5 MWp. occurred mainly due to the circumstances that evolved dur-
ing the war, which created a need for alternative electricity
The grid-based RE targets for the baseline scenario are sum- sources. Fig. 4-7 illustrates that solar PV systems became
marised in Table 4-1 for each individual technology. These reliable sources of energy during the conflict and began to
are the most common targets raised in government speech- be widely applied by Yemeni households and farmers.
es and official events.
In summary, the Yemeni government seems incapable to
Table 4-1 increase the deployment of REs, as the war has led to a se-
Targets of the National Strategy for Renewable Energy
vere dysfunction of the institutional arrangement. However,
Energy source Target (MW) the military conflict has contributed to the wide use of solar
Wind 400 energy out of necessity, seeing as other sources were short
Landfill gas 6 in supply, expensive, or unavailable. The implementation
Geothermal 160 of solar energy seems, therefore, to be needs-driven rather
(Source: data based on expert interviews) than politically motivated. Yet, so far, there are no large-
scale projects, the overall share of solar energy in the mix
For the heating sector, the National Strategy for Renewable remains low, and there is no regulatory framework in place.
Energy and Energy Efficiency highlighted the utilisation of Accordingly, renewables still hold only a niche position in
solar water heaters. The following were the most important Yemen. Therefore, Yemen can be classified as being in a
targets: pre-phase of the MENA phase model.
1) in the high scenario, 300,000 units, which Fossil Fuel Sector

represent 60% of the market potential, shall be
installed until 2025, saving around 686 GWh; The oil and gas sector in Yemen is mainly run by the state
2) in the baseline scenario, 200,000 units, which and includes oil production, refining, and distribution (Ata-
represent 40% of the market potential, shall be manov, 2017). Private companies take part in the upstream
installed until 2025, saving around 457 GWh; and oil exploration and production activities as well as in the fill-
3) in the low scenario, 100,000 units, which ing and distribution of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) bottles
represent 20% of the market potential, shall be and petroleum products. Prior to the war, Yemen’s economy
installed until 2025, saving around 229 GWh. was largely dependent on the revenues from the declining
oil sector, which accounted for 27% of the Gross Domestic
Furthermore, the National Strategy for Renewable Energy Product (GDP), 50% of the national budget revenue, and
and Energy Efficiency intended to facilitate investments 70% of exports (Republic of Yemen, 2015). As a result of
from the private sector to create a regulatory office (Elec- annual budget shortfalls, the government tried to diversify
tricity Sector Regulatory Board) and a new authority (Rural the economic structure with the support of an International
Electrification Authority). However, due to the ongoing civil Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Fuel subsidies reductions
war, these targets currently seem out of reach. were one of the measures taken within this reform. Fig. 4-8
shows that Yemen had been a net energy exporter until
20
Figure 4-7
Development of Renewable Electricity Generation by Source (in GWh) and Introduction of Energy Policy Measures,
Yemen 1990–2018
500
450
2018
Yemen’s electricity
400 final consumption:
2.8 TWh
(13% RE share)
350
300
[GWh]
250
200
100% solar
150
100
2009
National Strategy for
Renewable Energy and
50 Energy Efficiency
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Solar
Figure 4-8
Net Energy Imports (in Mtoe), Yemen 1990–2018
–5
[Mtoe]
–10
–15
–20
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
21
2015. From 2016 to 2018, however, it had become largely As stated previously, electricity in Yemen is mainly produced
dependent on energy imports, as the domestic structures in by oil-fired power plants. Around 684 MW capacity run on
the oil sector were critically affected by the war. Yet, accord- diesel, 495 MW of the capacity are steam turbines, and
ing to official data through expert interviews, Yemen still 340 MW are gas-fired power plants (Sufian, 2019). The volt-
possesses gas reserves of about 18 trillion cubic metres, and ages of the electrical power plants range between 10.5 kV
its oil reserves amount to nearly 10.4 billion barrels. and 15 kV, and they increase in the substations to trans-
mission levels of 33 kV, 132 kV, or 400 kV (ibid.). Electricity
Since the electricity grid network has been severely affect- is normally transmitted via 33 kV to the demand centres,
ed by the military conflict, many households have turned while the distribution network uses 11 kV voltage levels.
to diesel generators and private diesel grids (Ansari et al.,
2019). The shortage of the fuel has led to an organised black Yemen’s electrical transmission grid has large energy losses
market for selling diesel fuel at high prices. Simultaneous- in the distribution network and in the transmission network
ly, the Yemen Oil Products Distribution Company (YOPDC) due to old and inefficient grid lines. As a consequence of
recorded 77% less fuel sales in 2015 (Almohamadi, 2021). the damage caused during the war, electricity from oper-
Although the fuel availability improved by 2016, frequent ational power plants cannot always be transmitted to the
production disruptions and sabotage attacks still occur, with grid. Thus, most of the connected areas remain undersup-
a particularly frequency recorded in the second half of 2019 plied. Other reasons for the high electricity losses are the
(ibid.). lack of service and maintenance, lack of public investment,
and electricity theft (Ansari et al., 2019). Prior to the war in
The military conflict has also been severely affecting the 2012, more than 40% of the generated electricity was lost,
fossil fuel sector. Many oil companies and operators have and the technical and non-technical losses of the distribu-
halted their production activities due to hostile attacks on tion sector amounted to 36% or 2,329.1 GWh (Almoham-
the infrastructure; only a few companies started operating adi, 2021). Significant losses are recorded in Sana’a, Aden,
again. Due to these reasons, there has been only little re- Hodeidah, and Hadhramout Al-Sahel. The generation sector
sistance from the gas and oil lobby against the renewables was responsible for around 5.5% of losses.
transition. According to Yemeni experts, the energy transi-
tion plans of Yemeni gas importing countries, such as South Fig. 4-9 depicts Yemen’s 132 kV electricity transmission
Korea, will have only a limited effect on Yemen. Instead, network, the locations of the total generated and trans-
they regard this development as an opportunity for Yemen mitted electrical energy, and the total diesel and HFO fuel
to retain gas for local consumption, local development, and consumed for generation within the whole territory for the
electricity generation. This would mean that gas will remain year 2018. The size of the circles corresponds to the scale
an important pillar in Yemen’s energy strategy in the long of consumption.
term and that the transition to a RE-based system is likely to
take a longer period of time. Before the war, the grid was evaluated as adequate to ac-
commodate about 120 MW of wind power. However, in its
Infrastructure current condition, the grid could only integrate small quan-
tities of fluctuant renewables. According to experts, it will
The Yemeni electricity grid is currently unable to meet the be essential to conduct independent grid integration studies
demand, and it is unstable, resulting (as previously men- for each newly planned renewable power plant. A study by
tioned) in frequent load shedding. Since 2018, Yemen’s Al-Ashwal et al. (2016) analyses the possibilities of integrat-
transmission network has consisted of one main 132 kV ing residential PV systems into the local grids. Although the
grid, as shown in Fig. 4-9. The Marib gas power plant is initial results show that the integration of these systems is
connected to the main grid via a 400 kV double circuit possible, the study concludes that the biggest challenge
transmission line (Sufian, 2019). There are plans to connect for the integration will be the lack of measurements and
Marib to the 132 kV substation at Dhamar with a 400 kV control devices. Missing standards and codes that clarify the
line. There are several smaller grids in Yemen’s central connection mechanism to the grid to avoid instability as well
eastern area, while around Sada, north of Sana’a, isolated as the allowed PV capacity add to this challenge. Moreover,
networks are established that are not connected to the main the outdated control system of the national grid poses a
transmission network (ibid.). Before the war, several projects barrier to the integration of larger renewable capacities.
were developed to expand the grid within Yemen. For in- Furthermore, according to experts, there is a significant
stance, the following grid extension projects were planned: lack of qualified staff that can appropriately manage those
Amran-Bajil (Hodeidah), through Hajjah and Al-Qanawis technical challenges. Especially in the field of grid infrastruc-
(Hodeidah) as well as Dhamar-Aden, through Yarim (Ibb) ture, skilled workers are absent. Nevertheless, interviewed
and Al-Houban (Taiz) (Almohamadi, 2021). However, these experts believe that up to 20% of electricity generated from
projects have been suspended due to the military conflict. RE sources, such as wind and solar, could potentially be
To most of the Houthi-controlled zones, in particular Hajjah, integrated into the grid by 2025.
Sadah, and Amran, no electricity is delivered from the public In summary, the transmission infrastructure in Yemen does
grid. Although the Marib gas power plant is located close to not provide sufficient capacity to meet the demand. Future
these Houthi-controlled areas, the power supply is currently rebuilding and extension efforts should directly be designed
interrupted (Ansari et al., 2019). in a way that allow for the integration of large-scale inter-
22
Figure 4-9
Electricity Transmission Network of Yemen Showing Areas of Total Generated Electrical Energy and Consumed Fuels
Source: own creation, data based on Energydata (2017a); Sufian (2019)
mittent renewables into the grid. Simultaneously, efforts governmental entities are involved in the energy sector,
must be taken to address the shortage of qualified and such as the Supreme Council for Energy. Prior to the war,
skilled staff in Yemen. Accordingly, the current state of the this Council reviewed and set strategies and policies for the
electricity infrastructure in Yemen can be classified as being electricity sector and consisted of the Yemeni Minister of
in a pre-phase level of the MENA phase model. Electricity and Energy, Minister of Planning and Interna-
tional Cooperation, Minister of Finance, Minister of Oil and
Institutions and Governance Mineral Resources, and the Cabinet Secretary. For example,
the setting of electricity tariffs was approved by the Prime
The electricity sector in Yemen is organised by the Ministry Minister only after the Council of Ministers agreed to it.
of Electricity and Energy (MoEE). The MoEE sets policy and Another important entity in the energy sector is the General
strategic plans, grants licenses, and is responsible for de- Corporation for Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources (GCOGMR),
cision-making (Hadwan & Alkholidi, 2016; Sufian, 2019). which manages industry contracts and is responsible for
The electricity generation, transmission, and distribution is crude oil exports. Several state-owned subsidiaries belong
run by PEC, which belongs to the MoEE (Rawea & Urooj, to GCOGMR: Yemen Oil Company (YOC), Yemen Refining
2018). PEC is supposed to have financial and administrative Company (YRC), Petroleum Exploration and Production
independence, and it oversees the collection of electricity Authority (PEPA), Yemen Gas Company (YGC), Yemen LNG
bills. However, the poor commercial performance has left Company (YLNGC), YOPDC, General Department of Crude
PEC largely dependent on government financial allocations Oil Marketing, and Safer E&P Operations Company (Almo-
for investments as well as operational costs (Almohamadi, hamadi, 2021). YOPDC supplies the power plants with fuels
2021). While urban retail sales are also handled by PEC, at a subsidised price, in coordination with the Ministry of Fi-
rural retail sales are managed by the General Authority for nance (ibid.). The body that supervises the oil and gas sector
Rural Electrification (GARE) under the Electricity Act No. 1 is the Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources (MOM).
of 2009 (Sufian, 2019). GARE is responsible for providing
electricity services in rural areas. The tariffs are set by the Fig. 4-10 depicts the institutional framework of the electric-
Electricity Sector Regulatory Boards that also monitor the ity and energy market in Yemen.
industrial sector’s compliance with regulations (Sufian,
2019). This Board was intended to function as a temporary Prior to the war, Yemen’s electricity sector was vertically
agency until an independent regulatory authority would be structured, which is very typical for the Middle East. How-
established (Almohamadi, 2021). However, due to the war ever, issuing Electricity Law No. 1 in 2009 was an important
the authority was not created. Furthermore, several other step taken to restructure the electricity sector. The law also
23
Figure 4-10
Electricity Market Structure with Relevant Authorities and Companies
Ministry of
Ministry Ministry
Planning and
of of Electricity and
International
Finance Energy
Cooperation
General
Supreme Council Administration
of Energy of Renewable
Energy
Local Authorities
Yemen Oil Products

Distribution Regulatory Board
Company (YOPDC)
General Authority Public Electricity

for Rural Corporation
Electrification (PEC)
(GARE)
Generation,
Transmission and
Distributing Distribution Power
Power
Solar Home Subsectors Generators
Generators
Systems to (IPPs)
(IPPs)
Households
Consumers Residential Industrial
Source: own creation, data based on Almohamadi (2021); Sufian (2019)
introduced a new division, namely the »General Administra- tariffs. The categories are: urban households, rural house-
tion of Renewable Energy« to support the transition of the holds, small commercial sector, large commercial sector,
energy sector towards renewables. The planned formation hotels, agriculture, large industry, cement factories, public
of an independent regulatory authority to separate electrici- water pumping, and governmental buildings. Four cost
ty generation and distribution was another milestone. How- blocks exist for urban households: for up to 200 kWh costs
ever, as previously mentioned, the implementation of an USD-cent 2.8/kWh, up to 350 kWh amounts to USD-cent
independent regulatory authority has not yet been realised. 4.2/kWh, up to 700 kWh costs USD-cent 12/kWh, and con-
At the beginning of the war, the institutional framework be- sumption over 700 kWh monthly implies a cost of USD-cent
came dysfunctional, and the initially planned liberalisation 8.8/kWh. In contrast, there are two cost categories for rural
efforts have still not been implemented. Based on the cur- households: for up to 100 kWh costs USD-cent 4.2/kWh
rent state, Yemen is still in the pre-transition stage towards and for more than 100 kWh costs USD-cent 8.8/kWh. The
RE according to the applied phase model. tariffs for commercial entities, hotels, the agricultural sector,
industry, cement factories, public water pumping, and gov-
Energy Market and Economy ernmental buildings vary between USD-cent 12 and 16 (Su-
fian, 2019). These electricity tariffs are only implemented in
The tariffs in the existing public network are based on an in- the governorates that are under the Yemeni government’s
creasing block tariff (IBT) system that charges a higher price control, as the electricity is still heavily subsidised by the
per kWh for higher energy consumption levels (Atamanov, Ministry of Electricity. The northern governorates that are
2017). The average price tariff is approximately YER 23.14 under the control of the Houthis lifted electricity subsidies,
or USD-cent 10.75/kWh, which represents a value far below which, in turn, led to an increase in the tariff in these areas.
the production cost (Sufian, 2019). In addition, the electric- However, the tariff has been established according to the
ity pricing is divided into different categories with different climate and economic condition in each city. For example,
24
Figure 4-11
CO2 Emissions by Sector (in Mt CO2), Yemen 2005–2018
25 –63%
20
15
[Mt CO2]
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Electricity and heat producers Transport Industry

Residential Other energy industries Final consumption not elsewhere specified
Commercial and public services Agriculture
the current tariff in hot and low-income cities, such as Ho- cies that still heavily impact the fiscal situation of the state.
deidah, is YER 70/kWh (around USD-cent 11), in Al-Jawf is Although in 1996 a Social Welfare Fund (SWF) was estab-
YER 130/kWh (around USD-cent 21), while in Sana’a is YER lished to support the poorest and most vulnerable groups in
225/kWh (around USD-cent 37.5). Yemen, the SWF compensated the impact of the subsidies
reform only in a limited way (ibid.). According to experts,
As the public network cannot cover the demand, electric- the northern governorates that are under the control of
ity is also provided by private actors (Al-Saidi, 2020b). For the Houthis have recently lifted electricity subsidies, while
instance, on the neighbourhood level, private electricity the electricity rates in the governorates under the Yemeni
vendors, particularly in major cities (such as Sana’a), use die- government control are still heavily subsidised.
sel generators more than 100 kW-capacity to sell electricity
to households. Although the tariff for this option is almost In summary, the state-subsidised energy prices have long
10 times the average price for supply from the public grid, been a burden on the fiscal sustainability of the Yemeni
many private customers opt for this model in order to secure state. The subsidy reforms that started before the war failed
their electricity supply. For example, they use it to run agri- to achieve the intended goal to close the gap between
cultural water pumps, supply commercial shops, and to run domestic and international fuel prices (Atamanov, 2017).
other appliances necessary to meet the basic needs (ibid.). These subsidies for fossil fuels are also an obstacle to an
This electricity model is also controlled by the Houthi-ad- efficient energy transition. The assessment that Yemen is in
ministrated government but has several drawbacks, as it a pre-phase of the transition to REs is, thus, confirmed.
depends on the availability of fuel and is subject to price
fluctuations on the market (Al-Saidi, 2020b). CO2 Emissions
Fuel prices are currently about 70% of the international In 2018, a total of 7 Mt CO2 were emitted in Yemen, which
level, as they are still subsidised by the government. Along is 63% less than the amount in 2005, and 71% less than
with the decline in oil revenues and additional fuel short- the amount in 2014, the year before the military conflict
ages, the government adopted a policy of gradual subsidy started. This decline has been driven by the war-induced
lifting (Sufian, 2019). Between 1995 and 2021, the prices slump in fossil fuel power generation, the disruption of
increased by 130% on average. The prices for commodities, economic activities, and the reduction in transport due to
such as gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, gradually increased fuel shortages. Energy-based CO2 emissions and, in gen-
as well, aiming to fully remove the subsidies at a later stage eral, GHG emissions are dominated by the energy sector.
(ibid.). As a result, the state expenditures on subsidies fell The majority of the emissions were caused by fossil fuel
from 14% of GDP in 2008 to 7.2% in 2013. Yet, the grad- combustion for electricity generation and transportation,
ual increase in fuel prices resulted in violent protests that led while industry and residential sectors contributed between
the government to partially reverse the reforms (Atamanov, 30–40% to the overall emissions (Fig. 4-11). Within the
2017). However, the subsidies mainly benefit the rich and electricity and heat production, oil resources, such as diesel,
create incentives for smuggling, corruption, and inefficien- HFO, and LFO (e.g. kerosene), contributed more than 90%
25
Figure 4-12
CO2 Emissions from Electricity and Heat Generation by Energy Source (in Mt CO2), Yemen 2018
8%
Oil
2,5 Mt CO2
Gas
99%
Source: data based on IEA (2020a))
to the CO2 emissions, while the remainder was caused by power (CHP) generation systems that record efficiencies of
natural gas. Fig. 4-12 illustrates the resulting emissions from more than 80% (ibid.). The use of RE sources for power
heat and electricity generation by source for 2018. generation and for industrial and agricultural purposes has
also been promoted. For instance, the widespread use of
Although the country’s contribution to the global GHG solar water heaters has been endorsed. Furthermore, the IN-
emissions is quite minimal, Yemen is highly vulnerable to cli- DCs foresees the improvement of the energy use efficiency
mate change related impacts (Republic of Yemen, 2015). In in the transportation sector. However, concrete targets have
the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), not been given.
which were drafted in the year 2015 and have not yet been
converted to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), The Ministry of Electricity in Sana’a has also taken signifi-
Yemen intends to reduce its GHG emissions by 14% com- cant measures to improve energy efficiency. For example, it
pared to the business-as-usual scenario by 2030 (ibid.). This passed a law in 2019 requiring governmental facilities and
represents an estimated total cumulative GHG emissions streets to use economic light-emitting diode (LED) lamps
reduction of around 35 Mt CO2 from 2020 until 2030. The and solar lighting systems.
unconditional target without international support is 1%.
On a household level, many people have rationalised their
In summary, Yemen’s INDCs aimed to reduce GHG emis- electricity consumption, seeing as the electricity tariffs have
sions by 2030, and emissions are, in fact, decreasing. How- increased. In line with this development, awareness of more
ever, this decrease is attributed to the political circumstances energy efficient electrical household devices has been raised
rather than to policy strategies or measurements, which are among the people.
widely lacking. Given that the energy sector is responsible
for the largest share of emissions, reconstruction efforts The assessment of the steps taken by Yemen in the field of
should be directed at reducing GHG emissions. In this re- energy efficiency shows that the issue is generally under-
gard, RE sources could largely contribute to achieving the stood as an important part of energy sector management.
INDCs target. Accordingly, Yemen developed initial energy efficiency tar-
gets before the war but without quantifying them or setting
Efficiency a concrete timetable. Moreover, the war prevented the im-
plementation of the targets. On the household level, peo-
Yemen does possess energy efficiency strategies with con- ple mainly rationalise their electricity use for money-saving
crete measures and plans, but they are largely limited to purposes rather than for environmentally friendly reasons.
the energy sector. In its INDCs, Yemen seeks to increase the Based on this information, energy efficiency in Yemen is
energy efficiency in the energy sector by 15% until 2025 underdeveloped, which reinforces the classification of the
(Republic of Yemen, 2015). The efficiency measures are country in the pre-stage of the energy transition model.
planned to address power generation, transmission, and
distribution. A great emphasis is placed on the use of natu- Society
ral gas in the power sector. New installed generation capac-
ities are planned to be efficient combined-cycle gas turbines The population in Yemen suffers greatly from energy
(CCGTs) for the central power supply, while the decentral- shortages and rising energy costs, which contribute to the
ised power supply is intended to include combined heat and ongoing humanitarian crisis in the country. Due to this en-
26
ergy shortage, the use of solar energy sources has gained Summary of the Landscape and
importance. Accordingly, public awareness of REs has con- System Level Developments
siderably increased (Ajlan et al., 2016). For instance, solar
energy is, in general, positively received by the people, who In summary, the Yemeni energy sector faces several major
are willing to adopt this technology for their own residen- challenges. On the landscape level, the political instability
tial use. People have become familiar with terms like watt, and armed conflict affect the whole energy system, at least
watt hour, LED, and energy efficiency, seeing as they have in the short term. They will most likely influence the coun-
switched to less-energy intensive devices to save energy try’s energy development in the long term as well. Prior to
and costs. While in urban areas knowledge about RE and the war, there was a lack of policies and legal frameworks
solar energy is mainly communicated through education, in the form of laws and regulations for the deployment of
people in rural areas often become aware about the topic REs. These were also still not developed in the years that
through personal observation and experience (Baharoon et followed the war. Due to the desolate economic situation,
al., 2016). In addition, people in urban areas are less likely to there is hardly any funding available for REs in Yemen. Even
know about other renewable technologies, such as CSP or before the war, energy subsidies placed a heavy burden on
wind power, whereas in rural areas knowledge about solar the national budget that there was little leeway for the pro-
heaters and PV systems is often limited. Therefore, several motion of REs.
authors suggest increasing knowledge through targeted ed-
ucation, specific training, and awareness-raising campaigns, On the system level, the high dependency on diesel rep-
both at the household level and among financial institutions resents a great burden for households due to the incon-
and government agencies. This, in turn, would support the sistent supply, the costs, and the effects on health and the
implementation of REs (Ajlan et al., 2016). environment. Technical obstacles to the development of
the energy sector include high electricity losses due to old
However, low quality standards of solar energy systems that and inefficient infrastructure, transmission, and distribution
have been sold in Yemen pose a huge barrier to increasing networks, which were destroyed by violent attacks. Un-
the use of solar energy (Ansari et al., 2019). Furthermore, skilled personnel and difficulties in collecting electricity bills
there is a lack of qualified personnel, as hardly any trainings constitute further challenges. Many systems are designed
are offered to prepare technicians and engineers. As a re- and installed by unqualified staff, which can lead to poor
sult, non-specialised or unskilled staff members often take performance and a short lifespan of these systems. As a
the responsibility for the planning, installation, and mainte- result, solar energy develops a poor reputation and people
nance of solar systems. Most of the solar systems register a lose confidence in the technology. Yet, the current level of
performance drop after a couple of months, or it happens public acceptance for RE, particularly PV and solar heating,
that the systems are undersized, which, in turn, limits the is very high. These technologies have helped people to meet
entire system’s performance (ibid.). The incorrect sizing of their electricity and hot water demand, following the dete-
the PV systems and the low quality of the PV components rioration of the public energy supply since the start of the
has led to households being unsatisfied with their solar. This war in 2015. Accordingly, most solar applications are found
has damaged the reputation of this technology (ibid.). in households or small businesses and are sold and installed
by the private sector. Therefore, Yemen presents a very ex-
Another factor that also leads to mistrust towards renewa- ceptional case of a »microscale driven adaptation« (Al-Saidi,
ble technologies is the high level of corruption (Ansari et al., 2020b) in the Middle East, where energy development is
2019). The patronage network, which includes government mostly organised in a highly centralised manner.
actors, encourages monopolisation, and this raises local
prices. In the solar energy sector, this structure has caused The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a large influence on
wholesale prices to increase and import bottlenecks to oc- the current energy demand and supply in Yemen, as there
cur (ibid.). According to Ansari et al. (2019), solar energy has been no serious lockdown in the country. However, ac-
profit margins can exceed 300%. Furthermore, bribery is cording to experts, the pandemic was the major reason for
widespread, and permits and levies are sometimes arbitrarily several delays of large-scale solar projects that have been
issued by local authorities. planned by the Ministry of Electricity in Aden.
Overall, Yemen has no established institutions to raise In summary, the energy transformation in Yemen is ham-
awareness about REs. Public knowledge is mainly shaped pered by the consequences of the war but also by structures
by people’s own experiences with solar energy. Bribery and that already existed before the war. These factors have led
corruption increase costs for households and hinder a faster to supply shortages that exacerbated the humanitarian cri-
diffusion of REs. Due to the lack of specialised training insti- sis. They have also caused bottlenecks in the expansion of
tutions, employees in the solar energy sector often have lim- RE production.
ited skills that affect the sector’s performance and people’s
trust in the technology. This underpins the classification of Table 4-2 summarises the current trends and goals of the
Yemen in the pre-stage level of the energy transition accord- energy transition according to relevant indicators for Yemen.
ing to the applied phase model.
27
Table 4-2
Current Trends and Goals of the Energy Transition
Category Indicator 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2030 2050

Carbon Emissions CO2 emissions per unit +150% +136% +97% N/A N/A – –
(Compared to 1990) of GDP
CO2 emissions per capita +80% +100% –20% –40% N/A
RE Installed and planned N/A 1 290 1,090 1,650 –
capacity (MW)
Share in final energy use 0.9% 1% 2.4% N/A N/A –
Share in electricity mix 0% 0.02% 1.75% 12.7% N/A –
(existing and planned)
Efficiency Total primary energy +162.5% +211.2% +52.6% +31.5% N/A – –
supply (TPES) (compared
to 1990)
Energy intensity of primary +22.9% +22% –21% N/A N/A – –
energy (compared to
1990)
Total energy supply (TES) +50% +50% –50% –50% N/A – –
per capita (compared to
1990)
Electricity consumption +100% +200% +100% +0% N/A – –
per capita (compared to
1990)
Fossil fuel subsidies N/A 7.15% 0.7% N/A N/A
(share of GDP) (2013)
Buildings Residential final electricity +120.5% +269.2% +80.8% +94.9% N/A – –
consumption (compared
to 1990)
Transport Total final energy +36.5% +73.4% –25.5% –36.4% N/A – –
(Compared to 1990) consumption
(compared to 1990)
CO2 emissions in transport +50% +75% –25% –25% N/A – –
sector
(compared to 1990)
Industry Carbon intensity of –1.8% +3.6% +5.8% +6.6% N/A – –
industry consumption
(compared to 1995)
Value added (share of 49% 43.8% 36.4% 35.6% 40.6% – –
GDP) (2019)
Supply Security LNG exports N/A +1,275% +375% N/A N/A – –
(compared to 2009)
Oil products imports –80.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A – –
(compared to 1990)
Crude oil exports +114.2% +72.3% +6.6% –94.8% N/A – –
(compared to 1990)
Electricity access by 56% 73.7% 71% 62% N/A – –
population proportion
Oil reserves +45% +50% +50% +50% +50% – –
(compared to 1999)
Gas reserves +50% +50% +50% +50% +50% – –
(compared to 1999)
Investments Decarbonisation N/A N/A N/A 0.0062 N/A – –
investments (USD million) (2017)
Socio-economy Population 29,161,922 – –
(2019)
Population growth 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% – –
(2019)
Urbanisation rate 28.9% 31.8% 34.8% 36% (2017) N/A – –
GDP growth 5.6% 7.7% –27.9% 0.7% 2.1% (2019) – –
Oil rents (value of GDP) 43% 22% 2% 2.6% N/A – –
Water Level of water stress 169.8% 169.8% N/A N/A N/A – –
Source: based on data from BP (2020); FAO (2020); IEA (2020a); IRENA (2020a); IRENA (2020b); Statista (2020); The World Bank (2020a)
28
4.1.2 Assessment of Trends and Another plan was being developed that involved the estab-
Developments at the Niche Level lishment of an electrical high voltage direct current (HVDC)
Developments at the niche level during each phase are cru- connection from Ethiopia via Djibouti to Yemen (Sufian,
cial for reaching the subsequent stages of the energy tran- 2019). The aim would be for Yemen to obtain electrical en-
sition (see Table 3-1). However, Yemen displays very limited ergy from a hydropower plant in southern Ethiopia, which is
progress in almost all relevant dimensions: supply, demand, still under construction.
infrastructure, markets, economy, and society.
■ Electric Vehicles (EVs)
■ Renewable Energy
As mentioned in section 4.1.1, the government in Sana’a
Before the military conflict, the government planned to in- introduced a customs exemptions law (May 2020) that is
stall grid-connected large-scale RE projects, including solar applied to all components and products related to RE,
thermal, solar PV, geothermal, and wind power plants. The including EVs. This provides an opportunity for traders to
target was for the share of renewables in the electricity import EVs to the Yemeni market at lower costs. In addition,
generation mix to reach 15% or 2,600 GWh by 2025. In the constant scarcity of petrol and the rise in its prices are
other words, the plan included a 6 MW power station using prompting people to seek alternative means of transport
landfill gas, a large-scale wind farm in Mokha in the west of that do not rely on fossil fuels, such as petrol, diesel, and
Yemen that should have been constructed between 2014– gas. However, infrastructure for charging EVs does not yet
2019 (Republic of Yemen, 2015), and PV power plants in exist, and electricity supply is unreliable. The few EV users
a tender scheme based on the build-own-operate-transfer charge their vehicles in their homes using either solar power
(BOOT) model (MoEE, 2021). Currently, however, mainly PV systems or electricity from diesel generators.
projects are being discussed, such as:
4.1.3 Necessary Steps for Achieving
1) 10 MW-capacity PV power plant with storage the Next Phase
in Sada planned by the Ministry of Electricity Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are the predominant sources
2) 7 PV power plants with a total capacity of 96 MW of energy in Yemen. RE, besides small-scale decentralised
planned by the Ministry of Electricity in Aden: Lahj solar energy, still plays a minor role in the energy system.
city PV plant, 30 MW; Al-Dhalaa PV plant, 5MW; Legal and market regulations for renewables are widely
Hadramoot Al-Waadi PV plant, 7MW; Aden PV plant, lacking and the implementation of large-scale projects has
10MW; Abyan PV plant, 20MW; Loadder / Moddyah been hampered by the political instability. Moreover, the
PV plant, 15MW; and Al-Mahara PV plant, 10MW grid infrastructure is largely destroyed or damaged, and the
3) 2 PV power plants in Hadhramaut with storage remaining grid is inefficient and outdated, restricting the
and a capacity of 50 MW each that are planned future connection of large-scale RE power plants. Without
by the local authority in the governorate peace and major reconstruction efforts, the extension of
renewables-based energy systems on a large-scale will likely
The solar PV projects, for which tender rounds have been remain limited in the coming years. Therefore, the recom-
announced, are planned to be added in the governmental mended measures highly depend on the development of
controlled areas between 2022 and 2023. However, due to the political situation in Yemen (Almohamadi, 2021). In any
the instability of the political situation and partly because of case, the development of the RE sector must be addressed
the global pandemic, large-scale power infrastructural pro- at different levels, including in the areas of law, adminis-
jects have been suspended or severely delayed. Moreover, tration, regulation, policy making, capacity building, and
the lack of skilled staff is a major challenge for the further financing. These areas are briefly outlined below.
deployment of solar energy and poses the risk of stagnation
in the sector. Legal Framework
■ Grid Expansion To support a successful development of the RE sector in

Yemen, it is highly important to improve the political and
Prior to the war, Yemen planned to integrate its electrical legal frameworks. In order to accelerate large-scale RE
grid with several neighbouring countries. For instance, in projects, clear procedures and legislations are essential to
2007, there were plans to establish a grid interconnection build investor confidence, especially following the years
from Yemen to Saudi Arabia with a capacity between of instability in Yemen. The electricity law from 2010 can
500 MW and 1,000 MW (Ansari et al., 2019). The inter- serve as a basis for establishing further developments and
connector would have been 416 km long, consisting of a concretisations. On a small-scale level, it will be crucial to
400 kV double-circuit alternating current (AC) line and an develop regulations that foster the import of high quality PV
AC/ direct current (DC) converter station in order to convert products to increase consumer confidence in these systems.
Saudi Arabia’s 60 Hz electric system to the 50 Hz electric Furthermore, control instances are needed to form quality
system in Yemen. Although PEC developed investment standards or certifications. On the technical side, laws must
plans for the interconnections, funding for these projects be drafted and implemented to regulate local grid codes
was lacking and none of them have been realised yet (ibid.).
29
and requirements for the installation of PV systems on Infrastructure

buildings. These laws would also manage energy efficiency
measures. To identify the most suitable options for its regu- Improving and expanding grid capacity is key to integrat-
latory development, Yemen could first analyse best practices ing REs and ensuring a reliable energy supply in the long
and exchange with peers from countries in the region where term. Post-war reconstruction should, therefore, be directly
these advancements have already been implemented. designed in such a way that the grid can accommodate RE
in the future. For example, the voltage level must be im-
Institutions and Governance proved to ensure a disturbance-free power supply, seeing
as frequent overloads lead to technical losses. Yemen could
Strategy development along with structural and institutional also continue implementing interconnection projects with
reforms are needed to put Yemen on a sustainable post-war neighbouring countries, which could help meet the coun-
growth path. However, apart from the outdated National try’s electricity needs as an initial stage. These projects could
Strategy on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency from later serve as flexibility options and pathways to export elec-
2009, no other strategies exist in Yemen, and this strategy tricity. Moreover, analyses are required to assess and quan-
has not been put into practice as result of the ongoing mil- tify the need for RE storage options, as peak demand in
itary conflict. Strategic visions, such as the Mustafa Bahran Yemen occurs in the evening hours after sunset. In addition,
Vision 20/20, have been developed but have also not been the decentralisation of electricity generation has, indeed,
realised. Thus, as a first step, Yemen must develop an energy already began with the use of solar energy in households.
strategy that should aim to achieve diversification, sustain- However, it must be further promoted, as this can directly
ability, and social and economic development. The strategy reduce vulnerability to fossil fuel price fluctuations and is
ought to set quantified targets and indicators to measure less susceptible to attacks and damages compared to cen-
these goals for RE and energy efficiency. Moreover, Yemen tralised infrastructures (Al-Saidi, 2020b). Research should
must formulate plans to initiate the reform of the power also be conducted on the optimal mix between centralised
sector. This would unbundle electricity generation, trans- and decentralised renewable power generation, and con-
mission, and distribution. By establishing an independent crete targets and subsequent support mechanisms should
energy regulatory authority, the sector could become more be developed for both sectors. Overall, it is necessary to
competitive, and the investment environment could be im- build central power plants that cover the demand of elec-
proved. The next step would be to resume the activities of tricity across the country. Simultaneously, RE plants should
GARE in order to enhance the service provision in rural areas be developed to reduce the country’s dependence on fuel
(Almohamadi, 2021). The creation of financial institutions (especially diesel) imports.
and mechanisms are also crucial in order to finance small
and large-scale energy project investments. A state support Capacity Building and Sector Performance
and incentive programme for small solar plants should be
implemented to cushion the effects of the subsidy reforms A sustained transition will depend on qualified and trained
and to meet the urgent need for electricity for the economic staff in all sectors. Therefore, the Ministry of Electricity
reconstruction. Lastly, strengthening the cooperation and should support the establishment of institutionalised quali-
coordination between different agencies will help to sup- fication measures in the RE sector that match international
port the RE sector development. To achieve this, exchange standards (Ansari et al., 2019). This should include all qual-
formats between the various institutions under the leader- ification levels from vocational training for technical instal-
ship of the Ministry of Energy could be established as an lation and maintenance services to applied engineering
initial measure. This procedure would create a multifaceted programs at universities. The creation of dedicated capacity
understanding of the challenges and opportunities of REs and competence training centres could be a first step in this
in Yemen. direction (Ansari et al., 2019). For the small-scale solar en-
ergy sector, special trainings for technicians and engineers
Electricity Sector must be offered that target the dimensioning, installation,
and maintenance of solar energy systems. This will support
In the electricity sector, subsidy reforms are needed to create technical teams to prepare adequately for installing high
a level playing field for REs. This also requires a reform of quality solar energy systems. Furthermore, measures that
electricity tariffs to ensure that generation and operating enhance the governance and managerial skills of PEC will
costs are covered in the future to achieve a reliable supply of be key to enhance the sector’s performance. For instance,
electricity in the long term. In view of the humanitarian crisis technical staff that knows how to prepare technical and le-
in Yemen, these reforms must be carefully administered in gal documents, apply regulations, develop PPAs, or conduct
order to not further burden the population. Yemen’s first feasibility studies for RE will be needed (ibid.). Exchange
step could be conducting a comprehensive stakeholder programs with operators in other countries that have higher
consultation in order to establish a tariff structure that is shares of renewables should be initiated. Moreover, meas-
fair and consistent. This would support the most vulnerable ures such as staff reviews and performance and financial
members of the society, and it would also allow for eco- audits should be taken by third parties. These actions could
nomic development. help to achieve capacity building.
30
4.2 OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT PHASES vised not to delay the transition to RE sources. This energy
OF THE TRANSITION PROCESS transition can help Yemen to develop new economic sectors
and can provide it with future export opportunities.
The war has made it extremely difficult for Yemen to ade-
quately exploit its renewable potential. Other MENA coun- To ensure that these opportunities are made available to
tries have not faced such a situation. From the analysis, it a wide range of the population, citizens and communities
is evident that Yemen’s energy transition in recent years is should become an integral part of the energy planning pro-
mainly conflict-driven. As result of the war, people no longer cess. The current development of RE in Yemen is »commu-
have access to many sources of energy. Thus, they have re- nity-driven and self-organised« (Al-Saidi, 2020b), which is a
sorted to using solar energy to meet their basic electricity good starting point, even though the current development
needs. Solar PV has been widely implemented not only in is far from being a best-case model. In addition, research
households but also in the agricultural sector. For instance, and development (R&D) will be essential for the creation of
the solar water pumps have become the most prominent local value chains, and this must be supported financially.
technology at country-scale. The same holds true for health One way to fund RE research, but also to support RE pro-
facilities, hotels, and educational entities that rely on secure grammes and incentives, could be the establishment of a RE
solar energy. Although there is huge potential for RE, Yem- fund fed by a defined share of oil and gas revenues.
en lacks a comprehensive strategy. So far, no large-scale RE
projects have been implemented due to the political insta- Against this backdrop, a long-term and conflict-resilient
bility and the absence of laws and regulations. The lack of approach, which considers the entire energy system and
a legal framework has been unanimously mentioned by the long-term objectives of a transition towards fully renewa-
interviewed experts as a major challenge. This highlights the bles-based energy system, is needed. Yemen’s policymakers
need to develop policies and legislations to promote the must understand that the early adoption of RE systems rep-
successful reconstruction of the electricity sector in Yemen, resents multiple benefits; in the short term it would increase
including the RE sector. the energy supply, while in the long term it would present
an opportunity for economic development. Fig. 4-13 sum-
While most of the experts interviewed agreed on the need marises Yemen’s current status in the energy system transi-
to advance the energy transition towards renewables, they tion and provides with an outlook on the following steps.
also pointed to other challenges, such as the dominant role
that fossil fuels play and the long-standing patronage poli-
tics that hinder the path of the energy transition in Yemen.
However, the falling cost and advances of RE technologies
offer a valuable opportunity to solve the chronic issue of the
electricity crisis. Adopting these technologies has become
the better and less expensive option for generating elec-
tricity and heating water compared to using conventional
technologies. Besides these internal factors, external events
such as the COVID-19 pandemic have affected the renewa-
ble development in the last two years, resulting in the delay
of solar energy projects in the governorate of Aden.
For the future development of the energy system, the dif-

ferent political ideologies in the north and south need to
be considered. Since energy security and stability of the
electricity supply are major concerns both in the north and
south of Yemen, policymakers need to understand that
renewables can offer benefits to both parties on an eco-
nomic and social scale. It will be more beneficial to rebuild
a state-wide connected energy supply system rather than
fragmented systems in the north and south of Yemen.
While the need to secure the national energy supply is a

strong driver to the greater deployment of renewables,
domestic natural gas is also becoming more relevant for
Yemen’s energy strategy. The energy transition plans of
the countries buying Yemen’s natural gas will, according to
experts, influence Yemen’s energy strategy. In other words,
Yemen could use the gas domestically instead of selling
it below market value under existing contracts. However,
given the global decarbonisation efforts and the resulting
decline in demand for fossil fuels, Yemen would be well ad-
31
Figure 4-13
Overview of Yemen’s Status in the Energy System Transition Model
Niche level before Niche level before

Phase I:
phase I phase II
Take off
(take off) (system integration)
Assessment of
RE does not regional
Supply
Assessment for
replace fossil potentials of
RE potential
fuels different
flexibility options
Demand
Local Fundamental
recognition that Experiments with
experiments with
energy efficiency is flexibility options
RE
the second strategic
pillar of the energy
system transformation
Exploration of
Infrastructure
business models
Extension and around flexibility
including ICT start-
retrofitting of ups and new digital
electricity grid business models for
sector coupling
Market Development of
introduction of visions for flex-
Economy
market and energy

Market/
Development of RE
system integration
visions for RE (regional and
extensions transnational energy
Regulations and markets)
price schemes
for RE
Formation of actor
Formation of RE Increasing networks around
Society
related actor awareness of flexibility across

networks environmental electricity, mobility,
issues heat sectors
time
not yet
completed missing
completed
32
Conclusions and Outlook
CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK
A clear understanding and a structured vision are prerequi- Yet, renewables represent a long-term sustainable perspec-
sites for fostering and steering a transition towards a fully tive for Yemen, as they offer an opportunity for an energy
renewables-based energy system. The MENA phase model transition while also rebuilding the energy system after the
was adapted to the country case of Yemen in order to pro- war. To seize this opportunity, Yemen needs to increase its
vide information that would support the energy system’s ambition, improve the framework conditions for renewa-
transition towards sustainability. The model, which built on bles, and raise the awareness of its benefits. This includes
the German context and was complemented by insights into the need to unbundle the electricity sector. Likewise, energy
transition governance, was adapted to capture differences efficiency efforts must be increased. In particular, this re-
between general underlying assumptions, characteristics of quires capacity and skills building to ensure that the strat-
the MENA region, and the specific Yemen context. egies can be successfully implemented on a broader scale.
The model, which includes four phases (»Take-off RE«, »Sys- While the energy transition in Yemen is still at the earliest
tem Integration«, »PtF/G«, and »Towards 100% Renewa- stage and the upscaling of renewables faces many challeng-
bles«), was applied to analyse and determine where Yemen es, the country would be well advised to establish a more
stands in terms of its energy transition towards renewables. sustainable energy system that will benefit its population
The application of the model also provides the basis for the in the short and long term. The results along the transition
development of a roadmap detailing the steps needed to phase model towards 100% renewables can stimulate and
proceed on this path. The analysis has shown that Yemen’s support the discussion about Yemen’s future energy system.
so-called »solar revolution« is conflict-driven and limited to This is achieved by providing an overarching guiding vision
small-scale decentralised applications of solar energy. The for the energy transition and the development of appropri-
drivers for Yemen to shift to a sustainable energy system are ate policy strategies.
predominantly the need to secure a reliable and affordable
electricity supply as well as cost-benefit-opportunities in
the long-term economic development. Despite the drop in
renewable technology costs, the current pathway towards
renewables seems to be challenging for Yemen due to the
country’s political instability, the lack of strategies, legisla-
tions and regulations, and the widespread patronage in the
administration.
33
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF UNITS AND SYMBOLS
AC Alternating current % Percent

BOOT Build-own-operate-transfer CO2 Carbon dioxide
CCGT Combined-cycle gas turbine GW Gigawatt
CCS Carbon capture and storage GWh Gigawatt hour
CCU Carbon capture and use Hz Hertz
CHP Combined heat and power kgoe Kilogramme of oil equivalent
CNG Compressed natural gas ktoe Kilotonne of oil equivalent
COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 kV Kilo Volt
CSP Concentrated solar power kW Kilowatt
DC Direct current kWh Kilowatt hour
DSM Demand-side management m3 Cubic metre
ERRY Enhanced Rural Resilience in Yemen m/s Metre per second
EU European Union Mt Megatonne
EV Electric vehicle Mtoe Millions of tonnes of oil equivalent
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation MVA Megavolt-ampere
FiT Feed-in tariff MW Megawatt
GARE General Authority for Rural Electrification
GCOGMR General Corporation for Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse gas
HFO Heavy Fuel Oil
HVDC High Voltage Direct Current
IBT Increasing block tariff
ICT Information and communication technologies
IEA International Energy Agency
IEC International Electrotechnical Commission
IMF International Monetary Fund
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPP Independent Power Producer
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
LED Light-emitting diode
LFO Light fuel oil
LNG Liquefied natural gas
LPG Liquefied petroleum gas
MENA Middle East and North Africa
MLP Multi-level perspective
MoEE Ministry of Electricity and Energy
MOM Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources
MoU Memorandum of Understanding
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
PEC Public Electricity Corporation
PEPA Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority
PPA Power Purchase Agreement
PtF Power-to-fuel
PtG Power-to-gas
PtX Power-to-X
PV Photovoltaic
R&D Research and Development
RE Renewable Energy
REPS Rural Electrification Policy Statement
SHS Solar Home Systems
SWF Social Welfare Fund
USD US-Dollar
YGC Yemen Gas Company
YLNGC Yemen LNG Company
YOC Yemen Oil Company
YOPDC Yemen Oil Products Distribution Company
YRC Yemen Refining Company
36
LISTS
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3-1 Developments During the Transition Phases 9

Table 4-1 Targets of the National Strategy
for Renewable Energy 20
Table 4-2 Current Trends and Goals of the Energy Transition 29
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 The Multi-Level Perspective 5

Figure 2-2 Transition Phase Model for the MENA Region 5
Figure 4-1 Total Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe), Yemen 1990–
2018 13
Figure 4-2 Total Energy Supply (in ktoe), Yemen 1990–2018 13
Figure 4-3 Electricity Consumption (in TWh),
Yemen 1990–2019 15
Figure 4-4 Electricity Generation by Source (in TWh), Yemen
1990–2019 15
Figure 4-5 Installed Solar Modules (MW) 17
Figure 4-6 Electricity Generation With Conventional Sources
Until 2013 (Statistical Data) and Estimations
on Solar Power Generation After 2015 (GWh) 17
Figure 4-7 Development of Renewable Electricity Generation by
Source (in GWh) and Introduction of Energy Policy
Measures, Yemen 1990–2018 21
Figure 4-8 Net Energy Imports (in Mtoe), Yemen 1990–2018 21
Figure 4-9 Electricity Transmission Network of Yemen
Showing Areas of Total Generated Electrical Energy
and Consumed Fuels 23
Figure 4-10 Electricity Market Structure with Relevant
Authorities and Companies 24
Figure 4-11 CO2 Emissions by Sector (in Mt CO2),
Yemen 2005–2018 25
Figure 4-12 CO2 Emissions from Electricity and Heat Generation
by Energy Source (in Mt CO2), Yemen 2018 26
Figure 4-13 Overview of Yemen’s Status in the
Energy System Transition Model 32
37
IMPRINT
ABOUT THE AUTHORS IMPRINT
Sibel Raquel Ersoy (M.Sc) works as a junior researcher in Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Yemen Office
the research unit »International Energy Transitions« at the P.O. Box 4553 | Sana’a
Wuppertal Institute since 2019. Her main research interests
are transition pathways towards sustainable energy systems https://yemen.fes.de
in the Global South and modelling the water-energy-nexus.
She has a specific regional research focus on the Middle East To order publications:
and North Africa. [email protected]
Dr. Julia Terrapon-Pfaff is a senior researcher at the Wup- Commercial use of all media published by the Friedrich-
pertal Institute. Her primary research area is the sustainable Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written
energy system transition in developing and emerging consent of the FES.
countries, with a special focus on the Middle East and North
Africa.
Experts consulted in Yemen:
Prof. Marwan Dhamrin graduated from Sana’a University

with a BSc in Physics in 1998. He holds a Master of Science
and PhD degree in Engineering from Tokyo University of
Agriculture and Technology in the field of photovoltaics. He
worked at the same university as collaborative researcher/
assistance professor before joining Toyo Aluminium in 2012
as executive senior specialist leading the company core ABOUT THIS STUDY
technology center until Sep 2020. Currently he is a Specially
Appointed Professor at Osaka University. This study is conducted as part of a regional project applying
the energy transition phase model of the German Wupper-
Dr. Abdulrahman M. Baboraik graduated from Kazan tal Institute to different countries in the MENA region. Co-
State Power Engineering University (KSPEU), Russian Fed- ordinated by the Jordan-based Regional Climate and Energy
eration(RF), with a Bachelor of Science in Power Engineer- Project MENA of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, the project
ing- power plants and substations and a Master of Science contributes to a better understanding of where the energy
in Renewable Energy. In 2018, he earned a PhD degree transition processes in the respective countries are at. It also
in power generation. Currently he works as academic re- offers key learnings for the whole region based on findings
searcher and consultant in renewable energy, and he is a across the analysed countries. This aligns with FES’s strat-
member in the research laboratory of Modeling, Analysis egies bringing together government representatives, civil
and Control of Systems (MACS) in KSPEU, and managing society organisations along with supporting research, while
director & founder of Arab Renewable Energy Academy – providing policy recommendations to promote and achieve
ARABRENA portal. a socially just energy transition and climate justice for all.
The views expressed in this publication are not neccessarily those of the
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organisations for which the authors
work.
SUSTAINABLE TRANSFORMATION
OF YEMEN’S ENERGY SYSTEM
Development of a Phase Model
A clear understanding of socio-techni- The transition towards REs is still at a The priority is to improve the framework
cal interdependencies and a structured quite early stage in Yemen. The military conditions for RE in Yemen, starting
vision are prerequisites for fostering conflict has prevented the implementa- with the development of a long-term
and steering a transition to a fully re- tion of most of the planned large-scale strategy up to 2030 and beyond. Also,
newables-based energy system. To renewable projects. The political insta- an appropriate and transparent legis-
facilitate such understanding, a phase bility, the high dependence on fossil lation must be created. Furthermore,
model for the renewable energy (RE) fuels, and poor administrative perfor- based on the legislation, clear regula-
transition in MENA countries has been mance are the most pressing concerns tions for REs must be introduced, and a
developed and applied to the country for Yemen’s electricity sector. At an op- realistic timeframe for expansion must
case of Yemen. It is designed to sup- erational level, Yemen requires a total be established in order to promote ac-
port the strategy development and retrofit of the electricity infrastructure ceptance and market development on
governance of the energy transition and needs to expand its overall capaci- a large scale.
and to serve as a guide for decision ty while improving its efficiencies.
makers. The results of the analysis along the
Despite these challenges, rebuilding transition phase model towards 100%
the energy system after the political RE are intended to stimulate and sup-
turmoil and the subsequent violent port the discussion on Yemen‘s future
conflicts could offer Yemen the capa- energy system by providing an over-
bility to transition towards renewables. arching guiding vision for the energy
This will provide short-term and long- transition and the development of ap-
term opportunities and avoid stranded propriate policies.
investments in fossil-fuel capacities.
For further information on this topic:

https://yemen.fes.de/
https://mena.fes.de/topics/climate-and-energy

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S T U DY

Sibel Raquel Ersoy, Julia Terrapon-Pfaff,

2.1 The Original Phase Models ........................................................................ 4

3 THE MENA PHASE MODEL 6

3.1 Specific Characteristics of the MENA Region ............................................ 6

4 APPLICATION OF THE MODEL TO YEMEN 12

4.1 Categorisation of the Energy System Transformation in Yemen

5 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 33

In this study, the MENA phase model is applied to the case

1 Text is based on Holtz et al. (2018).

Landscape developments put pressure on

Socio-technical regime is »dynamically stable«.

External influences on niches Elements become aligned,

Source: Geels and Schot, 2007

Special PtF/G applications + exports NF BT MBG

Power-to-fuel / gases NF BT MBG

Flexibility options NF BT MBG

NF: Niche Formation BT: Break-Through MBG: Market-Based Growth

THE MENA PHASE MODEL

3.1 SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF 3.2 ADAPTATION OF MODEL

coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and glob-

3.5 DATA COLLECTION

Detailed information on the status and current develop-

Expert interviews were carried out in Yemen by the local

Development Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Phase IV:

* Niche * Breakthrough RE * Market-based growth RE * Market-based growth * Market-based growth

* Long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy

supply chains for RE buildings, mobility, and fuels

industry sectors; changing

sectors (e.g., heat pumps,

Development Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Phase IV:

* Niche * Breakthrough RE * Market-based growth RE * Market-based growth * Market-based growth

* Support creation and * Provide access to

Development Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Phase IV:

* Niche * Breakthrough RE * Market-based growth RE * Market-based growth * Market-based growth

RE RE hydrogen and carbon

* Development * Development of visions * Development of shared * Development of shared

(Source: Own creation)

APPLICATION OF THE MODEL TO YEMEN

Factsheet for the transition towards a renewables-based energy sys-

Green growth strategy ✗ 4.1.1 Assessment of the Current State

Power-to-X (PtX) strategy ✗ Energy Supply and Demand

Yemen’s energy supply is characterised by critical shortages

Transport Industry Residential

Oil Natural gas Coal Biofuels and waste

Source: data based on IEA (2020a)

Source: data based on IEA (2020a)

Oil Natural gas Solar PV

Source: data based on IEA (2020a)

Renewable Energy with solar PV for the water pumping systems. It

(Source: own compilation, data provided by Marwan Dhamrin)

Conventional Generation Solar Generated High Case

1) in the high scenario, 300,000 units, which Fossil Fuel Sector

Source: data based on IEA (2020a)

Source: own creation, data based on Energydata (2017a); Sufian (2019)

Yemen Oil Products

General Authority Public Electricity

Consumers Residential Industrial

Table 3-1 Developments During the Transition Phases 9

Figure 2-1 The Multi-Level Perspective 5