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© 2020 Krzysztof Murawski. This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 3.0
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Krzysztof Murawski / International Journal of Structural Glass and Advanced Materials Research 2020, Volume 4: 233.253
DOI: 10.3844/sgamrsp.2020.233.253
assumed that the shell material had linear strain The hypotheses of axis-symmetrical boundary conditions,
hardening. The analysis was carried out for both the elasticity and perfect bond between the phases, with a new
deformation and for the flow theory of plasticity. For analytical solutions for self-equilibrated axial forces
solving the problem the quasi-bifurcation method was applied were derived. The elastic and post-elastic response
applied. Buckling threshold and spectrum of bifurcation of the overall solid and predictive formulae for estimating
times were calculated. A coefficient characterizing the failure mechanism, in terms of concrete ultimate
exponential growth of the buckling amplitudes was compressive strength, confining pressure and strain at
introduced. The numerical examples were presented. failure, were derived.
Papanastasiou and Durban (1999) presented a linear Voyiadjis and Woelke (2008) presented a finite
bifurcation analysis for pressure sensitive elastoplastic element model for the elastic-plastic and damage
hollow cylinders under radial surface loads. Material analysis of thin and thick shells. Linear elastic, inelastic
response was modeled by the flow and deformation and softening behaviors caused by damage in structural
theories of the Drucker-Prager solid accounting for shells, as well as large rotations were investigated. The
arbitrary hardening. Sample calculations were given for presented formulation was developed primarily for large
cylinders that deformed in axially symmetric patterns scale structural analyses. They provided a constitutive
under uniform radial pressure applied at the boundaries. model which allowed for accurate representation of the
For thick-walled cylinders the dominant bifurcation non-linear shell behavior up to failure, while offering
mode predicted by deformation theory appeared to be a high efficiency and applicability to large scale structural
circumferential surface instability. Deformation theory analyses. This was achieved by representing the elastic-
results for bifurcations were apparently not sensitive to plastic behavior by means of the non-layered approach,
deviations from associativity. with an updated Lagrangian method used to describe the
Dubina and Ungureanu (2000) dealt with the elastic- geometric non-linearities. For the treatment of material
plastic interactive buckling of thin-walled steel non-linearities an Iliushin's yield function expressed in
compression members. The interaction formula for terms of stress resultants was adopted, with isotropic and
local and overall buckling modes of Thin-Walled Steel kinematic hardening rules.
Compression (TWSC) members, the effect of local Leoveanu et al. (2012) searched the steel light
buckling was introduced by means of the effective structures used in tall buildings, bridges piles and
strength of short members. The local overall interactive girders. They realize a smallest loading by the own
buckling modes were regarded as interaction between weight of the structure components by designing in
local rigid-plastic mode and overall-elastic one and elastic-plastic state so the global and local instability was
these two modes were coupled into an adequate important. They designed buildings with using the
interactive equation. welding joint technology. The authors tried to simplify
Alvarenga and Silveira (2006) presented a study the calculation process by use some statistical low to
about the necessary steps to qualify a second-order approximate some of the complex phenomenon and get
inelastic analysis as advanced one. A plastic-zone good estimations on the residual stresses induced by the
approach applied to steel plane frames (portals) and the welded process in the double T profile. The verification
numerical formulation was based on finite element of the influence of technology on the girder instability
model of a Bernoulli-Euler beam-column member called was easy to estimate the critical loads.
“slice technique”. This element was set on a Lagrangian Al-Kamal (2017) analysed the elastic stability of a
updated co-rotational system. The nonlinear problem column bolted at its mid-height to a simply supported
was solved using Newton-Raphson iterative strategy and square plate and subjected to a concentrated load, using
a new axial force iterative integration was shown. This the energy method. A uniform, homogeneous column
process was implemented on a computer program was assumed to be pinned at both ends. From symmetry
PPLANAV* and the minimum requirements of considerations, half of the column was modeled by
advanced analysis (initial geometrical imperfections and making the plate acting as a torsion spring on the
residual stress) were automatically generated. column at its mid-height. The analytical elastic
Fraldi et al. (2008) aimed at deriving assessment and buckling load was compared with a numerical solution
design formulae for determining the elastic–plastic obtained from finite element method using SAP2000.
response and the ultimate compressive strength of Silvestre et al. (2018) studied the influence of the
circular concrete columns confined by Fiber Reinforced nature of the deformation mode (global, local and
Polymers (FRP). A constructive method for obtaining distortional) on the load carrying capacity of beams
closed-form elastic and post-elastic solutions for beyond the yield load. Following recent investigations on
Functionally Graded Material Cylinders (FGMCs), the decomposition of elastic buckling modes into
constituted by an isotropic central core and arbitrary combinations of structurally meaningful deformation
cylindrically orthotropic hollow phases, was proposed. modes, they applied the same concept to the 1st order
234
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failure modes (elastic-plastic collapse mechanisms). To (simultaneously on the Euler’s hyperbole) and:
achieve this goal, a GBT-based code that performed first-
order elastic-plastic analyses of thin-walled members was cr pl Re* for 0. (2)
employed. The five beams with different cross-sections,
lengths, supports and loadings were analysed. It was
concluded that larger contributions of local and where, denotes the slenderness ratio.
distortional modes of the beam failure mode lead to a In that case the formula of Tetmajer-Jasiński’s straight
higher post-yielding strength reserve, which implied a line is as follows:
higher beam load carrying capacity beyond the yield load.
Słowiński and Piekarczyk (2017) dealt with a safe Re* RHEu
crT J Re* . (3)
and economic design of steel cylindrical shells according el _ lt
to European Standard EN 1993-1-6 often requiring a
non-linear analysis. The plastic collapse load resulting
For semi-slender thin-walled cylindrical columns
from a materially non-linear analysis was to be
determined then in many cases. However, an extraction depending on and the critical stresses are (Fig. 1)
of the true plastic strength still was a relatively as follows:
complex matter in a numerical analysis. The authors
used the modified Southwell plot and also the plot
crT _Jcylindr Rr* 2
R *
e RHEu
, (4)
between the load factor increment and the arc length el _ lt
for an evaluation of the plastic collapse resistance of a
steel cylindrical shell. A proposal of an employment of
the relation between the load factor increment and the where, = R/t and = L/t, while:
arc length, which permitted to track the structural R Denotes the median radius of the cylinder,
response of the whole shell during the progress of the L The length of the column,
numerical computations, was made. t The wall thickness and
Krishan et al. (2019) presented a theoretical study of el_lt The slenderness ratio limiting the elasticstate.
the structural resistance of compressed short concrete
elements in a glass-fiber reinforced shell. The For semi-slender thin-walled square columns
methodology was based on a nonlinear strain model of depending on and critical stresses are (Fig. 2):
how this element reacts to incremental load in. What made
computing of such structures difficult was the need to
crT _Jsquare Re* 6
R
*
e RHEu
, (5)
account for the continuously changing lateral shell el _ lt
pressure on the concrete core. The lateral pressure kept
increasing due to changes in the concrete-core and glass
fiber-reinforced shell lateral-strain coefficients, causing where, = a/t and = L/t, while: a is denotes the
greater stress in the material. median side of the square.
The Tetmajer-Jasiński’s simplification was described
Stability of Semi-Slender Columns in Elastic- in the paper (Murawski, 2008d).
Plastic States The next simplification which may be used in
An application of thin-walled columns for structures analysis of stability for squat columns to the determining
mainly depends on their load capacity for axial loads, of critical force in practical designing is the one
i.e., their stability. In the case of very slender columns, formulated by (Ostenfeld, 1898).
this will refer to the stability in elastic states, but more The simplification relies on replacement the Euler’s
often in engineering practice in the elastic-plastic states. hyperbole by the Johnson-Ostenfeld’s parabola.
In an analysis of stability in practical designing for For materials having the limit of plastic stress pl = Re*:
squat columns the determining of critical force may be
used by a simplification formulated by (Tetmajer, 1886; cr pl Re* for 0. (6)
Jasiński, 1894), which relies on replacement the Euler’s
hyperbole by the Tetmajer-Jasiński’s straight line. The formula of Johnson-Ostenfeld’s parabola is as
For materials having the limit of the plastic stress follows:
pl( = 0) = Re* ≈ Re (Fig. 16), where Re is the yield stress
and the limit of the elastic stress H( = el_lt) = RHEu (Fig. Re*2
,
2
16) the co-ordinates of Tetmajer-Jasiński’s straight line: crJ O Re* (7)
4 E 2
cr H RHEu for el _ lt (1) where, E denotes the Young’s elastic modulus.
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cr T-J ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
el _ lt
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
1150 50
L/t 40 R/t
1250
30
1350 20
Fig. 1: Surface function T-Jcr_cylindr(,) based on the Tetmajer-Jasiński formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns made of steel
R35 compressed by ball-and-socket joints.
cr T-J ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
100
T J
R *
6
R *
e RHEu 50
cr _ square e
el _ lt 0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 2: Surface function T-Jcr_square(,) based on the Tetmajer-Jasiński formula of the square-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
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cr J-O ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
2
R e* 2 50
J O
cr _ cylin R *
e
2 E 2 2
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
1150 50
L/t 40 R/t
1250
30
1350 20
Fig. 3: Surface function J-Ocr_cylindr (,) based on the Johnson-Ostenfeld formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns made of steel
R35 compressed by ball-and-socket joints
cr J-O ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
100
2
3 Re* 2
J O
R * 50
2 E 2 2
cr _ square e
0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 4: Surface function J-Ocr_ square(,) based on the Johnson-Ostenfeld formula of the square-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
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For semi-slender thin-walled cylindrical columns The determination of the course of the function Et()
depending on and critical stresses are (Fig. 3): on the basis of this formula knowing the cr() function
2
from experiments allows receiving the correct results in
Re*2 range of a population of examined specimens only.
crJ _Ocylind Re* 2 , (8)
4 E 2 Later (Ylinen, 1956) used the approximation of the
function Et = d/d = Et() with the equation:
For semi-slender thin-walled square columns
depending on and critical stresses are (Fig. 4): R cr
Et E e , (12)
2 Re c cr
Re*2
crJ _Osquare Re* 6 .
2
(9)
4 E Where:
Re = The yield stress and
The Johnson-Ostenfeld’s simplification was c = Denotes dimensionless constant determined by
described in the paper (Murawski, 2008e). experiment (c = 0.977 for steel, c = 0.875 for wood,
The loss stability theory of axially compressed semi- c = 0 for concrete)
slender columns in elastic-plastic states, based on the
concept of the tangent modulus, was formulated by The physical meaning of quadratic equation with
(Engesser, 1889; 1895; von Kármán, 1908; Kármán, respect to cr:
1910; Shanley, 1947). According to the Engesser-
Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis, the following two zones 2
R cr
Ylien
can be found in the critical cross-section of the axially crYlien E e Ylien
(13)
Re c cr
compressed column in elastic-plastic state:
1
Re
1 e 4 c 2 Re
modulus from the graph stress strain , obtained during E E
E
a standard tension test, but from the non-linear range.
The Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s theory was described
in the papers and books (Murawski, 1998; 2002a; 2002b; 2 Re (16)
crYlinen
_ square 2
2003; 2008a; 2011a; 2011b; 2011c; 2017; 2018). 2
6 Re 6 R 2
6 Re
2
Where:
But this formula does not give satisfactorily correct Rx = The limit of proportional stress
results, too. Re = Denotes the yield stress
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E
Re Rx 6
2 2
1
2 Rx
Brzezina
(19)
2
cr _ square
2 E
Re Rx
2
2
4 R R R
(21)
2 Rx 2 2
Re Rx 6
2 2
2 x e x 2
x e x .
2 Rx 2
E
E 4 R R R
P
Neutral layer
Critical
cross
section
Central line
P
(a) (b)
Fig. 5: Axially compressed column (a) and its critical cross-section (b) at the moment of the stability loss, according to the Engesser-
Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis; the Young’s modulus E, and tangent modulus Et during tension
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cr Ylinen ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
2 Re
crYlinen
_ cylindr 2
2
2 Re 2 2 R 2
2 Re
1
1 e 4 c
50
E
E E
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
1150 50
L/t 40 R/t
1250
30
1350 20
Fig. 6: Surface function Ylinencr_cylindr(,) based on the Ylinen’s formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
cr Ylinen ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
2 Re 100
crYlinen
_ square 2
2
6 Re 6 2 R 2
6 Re
1 1 e 4c 50
E E
E
0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 7: Surface function Ylinencr_square(,) based on the Ylinen’s formula of the square-shaped columns made of birch compressed by
ball-and-socket joints
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cr Brezina ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
2
1 R Rx 2 R Rx 2
2 2
crBrzezina
_ cylidr 2 Rx e
2 E
2
2 Rx e
E
2
4 Rx 2 Re Rx 2
50
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
1150 50
L/t 40 R/t
1250
30
1350 20
Fig. 8: Surface function Brzezinacr_cylindr(,) based on the Březina’s formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
cr Brezina ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
100
2
1 R Rx 2 R Rx 2
2 2
crBrzezina
_ square 2 Rx e
2 E
6
2 Rx e
E
6
4 Rx 2 Re Rx 2
50
0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 9: Surface function Brzezinacr_ square(,) based on the Březina’s formula of the square-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
research the combination of the tangent modulus Et and crPearson Bleich Vol ' mir E Et . (22)
the modulus E:
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4 E2
(23) (Radhakrishnan, 1956):
crPearson Bleich Vol ' mir .
R R 2 4
e x
1 2
4 E2 E
crRadhakrishnan E t (30)
Es
For the semi-slender thin-walled cylindrical
column axially compressed by ball-and-socket joints and (Seide et al., 1960):
the critical stress, according to Pearson-Bleich-
Vol’mir is equal to (Fig. 10): 2
Et
crWeingarten Es . (31)
E
R R 4
2
4
1 Rx2 Re Rx
2
Rx Rx2
e x
4 4 E2
The formulas passed in these works give the
(24)
crPearson Bleich Vol ' mir
.
_ cylinder
R R 2 4
ambiguous, i.e., a possibility of different results in
e x
1 dependence on received experimental values Et or Es.
4 4 E2
Therefore, applying these formulas wakes reservations.
The determining the function Et() on the basis of a
For the semi-slender thin-walled square column
non-linear range of the () course obtained during the
axially compressed by ball-and-socket joints the
extension test of one normative specimen or as the
critical stress, according to Pearson-Bleich-Vol’mir’s
standard like also wakes the reservations.
is equal to (Fig. 11):
Elastic-Plastic Stability of Semi-Slender Columns
R R 2 36 4 in Own Investigations
1 Rx2 Re Rx
2
Rx Rx2
e x
4 4 E2
(25) The author did his own analysis of stability of thin-
crPearson Bleich Vol , mir
.
walled columns (Murawski, 1998; 2002a; 2002b; 2003;
e
R R 2 36 4
_ square
x
1
4 4 E2 2008a; 2008b; 2011a; 2011b; 2011c; 2017; 2018)
In case of stability of columns in elastic states the
author assumed that the loss of stability occurs already at
The secant modulus Es was used by (Stowell, minimum loads, whereas the position of the resultant
1948; Bijlaard, 1949; Broszko, 1953; Gerard, 1957; neutral layer caused by the superposition of pure
Vol’mir, 1965): compression and bending of the elastic line of the
2
column is changing.
But for the loss of carrying capacity is responsible the
crStowell Bijlaard Broszko Gerard Vol ' mir Es . (26)
position of a force line in relation to the critical
transverse cross-section outline.
The combination of the tangent modulus Et and the If the force line goes throw the inside of the critical
secant modulus Es used (Gerard, 1962): cross-section, the moments of inside forces in this
section are in equilibrium.
2 When the force line exits the critical cross-section
crGerard Es Et . (27) outline, the equilibrium of the moments disappear and
the column losses the carrying capabilities.
In case of stability of columns in elastic-plastic states
Stowell (1948; Bijlaard, 1949) used the
the author assumed, that the column loses the stability
combination of the tangent modulus Et, a secant
when the force line enters the plastic zone in the critical
modulus Es and parameters:
transverse cross-section.
2
E Approximated Theory of Technical Stability for
crStowell Bijlaard Es 0.33 0.67 0.25 0.75 t , (28) Semi-Slender Columns in Elastic-Plastic States
Es
This theory can be also named as the modified
as well as Gerard and Becker (1957): Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s theory.
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cr P-B-V ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
R R 2 4 4
2
Rx Rx e 4 x 4 2
2
1 Rx Re Rx
2
E
crPearson-Bleich-Vol’mir 50
Re Rx 2 4 4
1
E
4 4 2
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
L/t 1150 50 R/t
1250 40
30
1350 20
Fig. 10: Surface function P-B-Vcr_cylindr(,) based on the Pearson-Bleich-Vol’mir’s formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns
made of steel R35 compressed by ball-and-socket joints
cr P-B-V ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
R R 2 36 4 100
2
Rx Rx e 4 x 4 2
2
1 Rx Re Rx
2
E
crPearson-Bleich-Vol’mir 50
Re Rx 2 36 4
1
E
4 4 2
0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 11: Surface function P-B-Vcr_square(,) based on the Pearson-Bleich-Vol’mir’s formula of the square-shaped columns made of
steel R35 compressed by ball-and-socket joints
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The Re* is attained for 0, i.e., cr( = 0) = Re* and In case of the semi-slender thin-walled cylindrical
RHEu is attained for el_lt, i.e., cr(el_lt) = RHEu. column compressed by ball-and-socket joints the elastic
If in the range (0, el_lt) instead of RHEu we use the stress is as follows (Fig. 12):
linear function HKM(), then similarly the compressive
stress crKM from the range (0, el_lt) is attained for the
2 *
2 2
slenderness ratio as follows: HKM_ cylinder E 1 RH E , (42)
el _ lt el _ lt el _ lt
el _ lt *
crKM HKM Re HKM , (33)
el _ lt and the critical stress (Fig. 13):
2
hence, after taking into account Equation (32): 2 * 2 2
crKM 1 R RH* E 2 . (43)
el _ lt
e el _ lt
el _ lt
el _ lt *
crKM RHEu RH 2 RH Re
Eu *
In case of the axially compressed semi-slender thin-
el _ lt
2
(34) walled square column by ball-and-socket joints the
el _ lt
RH RH .
* Eu elastic stress is as follows (Fig. 14):
el _ lt
6 *
2 2
HKM_ square E 1 E , (44)
If RH = H(el_lt) = cr(el_lt) denotes the elasticity H
Eu R
limit used in Euler’s formula to determine el_lt: el _ lt el _ lt el _ lt
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cr KM ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
2
*
1 2 Re RH* 2 E 2
50
KM
2
el _ lt el _ lt
cr
el _ lt
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
1150 50
L/t 40 R/t
1250
30
1350 20
Fig. 12: Surface function crKMcylindr(,) based on the author’s formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
H KM ,
350
300
250
cr [MPa]
200
150
100
2 *
HKM RHEu 1
el _ lt
RH RHEu 50
0
750 100
90
850 80
950 70
1050 60
1150 50
L/t 40 R/t
1250
30
1350 20
Fig. 13: Surface function HKMcylindr(,) based on the author’s formula of the cylindrically-shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
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cr KM ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
100
2
KM
1 6 Re* RH* 6 E 2 6 50
0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 14: Surface function crKMsquare(,) based on the author’s formula of the square -shaped columns made of steel R35
compressed by ball-and-socket joints
H KM ,
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150
100
6 *
HKM RHEu 1
el _ lt
RH RHEu 50
0
425
475 100
525 90
80
575 70
625 60
L/t 675 50 a/t
725 40
30
775 20
Fig. 15: Surface function HKMsquare (,) based on the author’s formula of the square-shaped columns made of steel R35 compressed
by ball-and-socket joints
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350
Re* Re 346.54 MPa Steel R35 ( )
300
RH* 268.24 MPa
250
200
[MPa]
*
150 HKM RHEu 1
el _ lt
RH RHEu
RHEu 150.74 MPa
2
100 *
crKM 1 Re RH* E 2
50
el _ lt el lt el _ lt
el _ lt 102.6
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Fig. 16: Functions cr() for columns made of steel R35 according to the modified Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150 * 1 Eu 2
KM
1 RHEu Re RH*
RHEu RH
E
cr
E E
100
Re* RHEu
T J
R
*
el _ lt
50 cr e
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 17: Functions cr() for columns made of steel R35 according to the modified Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis and to the
Tetmajer-Jasiński’s simplification
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350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150 * 1 Eu 2
crKM 1
RHEu Re RH* RHEu RH
E E E
100
2
Re*
50 J O
R *
2
4 E
cr e 2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 18: Functions cr() for columns made of steel R35 according to the modified Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis and to the
Johnson-Ostenfeld’s simplification
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
150 * 1 Eu 2
KM
1 RHEu Re RH*
RHEu RH
E
cr
E E
100
2 Re
crYlinen
2
50
2
R 2 R 2
R
1 e 1 e 4 c e
E E E
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 19: Functions cr() for columns made of steel R35 according to the modified Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis and to the
Ylinen’s hypothesis
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DOI: 10.3844/sgamrsp.2020.233.253
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
* 1 Eu 2
150 crKM 1
RHEu Re RH* RHEu RH
E E E
100 2
2 2
R R x 2 R R e R x 4 R 2 R R 2
50 crBrzezina
1
2 R x e
x
2 2 x e x
2
E E
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 20: Functions cr() for columns made of steel R35 according to the modified Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis and to
Březina’s hypothesis
350
300
250
200
cr [MPa]
* 1 Eu 2
crKM 1
RHEu Re RH* RHEu RH
150 E
E E
100 R R 2 4
2
Rx Rx e 4 x 2
E
1 Rx Re Rx
2 2
crPearson - Bleich - Vol’mir
50 Re Rx 2 4
1
E
4 2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 21: Functions cr() for columns made of steel R35 according to the modified Engesser-Kármán-Shanley’s hypothesis and to
Pearson (1950)-Bleich (1952)-Vol’mir (1965)’s hypothesis
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