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Continuous Probability Distributions

The document discusses continuous probability distributions, specifically the uniform and normal distributions. It provides the characteristics and formulas for calculating probabilities for each distribution. Examples are included to demonstrate how to find probabilities for different scenarios using the distributions.

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Puja Chakraborty
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
87 views

Continuous Probability Distributions

The document discusses continuous probability distributions, specifically the uniform and normal distributions. It provides the characteristics and formulas for calculating probabilities for each distribution. Examples are included to demonstrate how to find probabilities for different scenarios using the distributions.

Uploaded by

Puja Chakraborty
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Continuous Probability Distributions

Chapter 7

7-1 Copyright © 2022 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the
prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
Learning Objectives
LO7-1Describe the uniform probability
distribution and use it to calculate
probabilities
LO7-2Describe the characteristics of a normal
probability distribution
LO7-3Describe the standard normal
probability distribution and use it to
calculate probabilities

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Uniform Distribution
 The uniform distribution characteristics
 It is rectangular in shape
 The mean and the median are equal
 It is completely described by its minimum value a and
its maximum value b

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Uniform Distribution Formulas
 The mean and standard deviation of a uniform
distribution are computed as follows

 The following equation describes the region from a to b

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Uniform Distribution Example
Southwest Arizona State University provides bus service to
students while they are on campus. A bus arrives at the North
Main Street and College Drive stop every 30 minutes between 6
a.m. and 11 p.m. during weekdays. Students arrive at the bus stop
at random times. The time that a student waits is uniformly
distributed from 0 to 30 minutes.

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Uniform Distribution Example (2 of 4)
The area of the uniform distribution is found by multiplying height *base
1
Area = (30-0) = 1.00
30−0
a+b 0+30
The mean is μ= = = 15
2 2
b−a 2 30−0 2
The standard deviation is σ= = = 8.66
12 12

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Uniform Distribution Example (3 of 4)

To find the probability that a student will wait more than 25


minutes, find the area between 25 and 30 minutes.
1
P(25 < wait time < 30) = (height)(base) = (5) = .1667
(30−0)

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Uniform Distribution Example (4 of 4)

To find the probability that a student will wait between 10 and


20 minutes, find the area between 10 and 20 minutes.
1
P(10 < wait time < 20) = (height)(base) = (10) = .3333
(30−0)

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Example

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Example

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Example

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Normal Probability Distribution
 The normal probability distribution is a continuous distribution
with the following characteristics:
 It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the
distribution
 The total area under the curve is 1.00
 The distribution is symmetrical about the mean
 It is asymptotic, meaning the curve approaches but never
touches the X-axis
 The locations of a normal distribution is determined by the
mean
 The dispersion or spread is determined by the standard
deviation
 There is a family of normal probability distributions

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The Normal Curve

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Family of Normal Probability Distributions

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Standard Normal Probability Distribution
 The standard normal probability distribution is a
particular normal distribution
 It has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

z VALUE The signed distance between a selected value, designated x,


and the mean, μ, divided by the standard deviation, σ.

 Any normal probability distribution can be converted to


the standard normal probability distribution with the
following formula:

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Areas Under the Normal Curve
 Here is a portion of the “z” Table

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Standard Normal Probability Example
Rideshare services are available internationally. A customer uses a smartphone
app to request a ride. Then, a driver receives the request, picks up the
customer, and takes the customer to the desired location. No cash is involved;
the payment for the transaction is handled digitally.

Suppose the weekly income of rideshare drivers follows the normal probability
distribution with a mean of $1,000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is
the z value of income for a driver who earns $1,100 per week? For a driver
who earns $900 per week?

What is the z-value of income for a What is the z-value of income for a
driver who earns $1,100? driver who earns $900?

x−μ $1,100−$1,000 x−μ $900−$1,000


Z= = = 1.00 Z= = = -1.00
σ $100 σ $100

Regardless of whether z is +1or −1, the area under the curve is .3413

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Example

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Example

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The Empirical Rule

To verify the Empirical Rule:

z of 1.00 = .3413 so .3413 × 2 = .6826 or about 68%


z of 2.00 = .4772 so .4772 × 2 = .9544 or about 95%
z of 3.00 = .4987 so .4987 × 2 = .9974 or about 99.7%

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The Empirical Rule Example

As part of its quality assurance program, the Autolite Battery Company


conducts tests on battery life. For a particular D-cell alkaline battery, the
mean life is 19 hours. The useful life of the battery follows a normal
distribution with a standard deviation of 1.2 hours.

1. About 68% of the batteries have a life between what two values?
μ ±1 standard deviation; 19 ± 1(1.2) hours;
Between 17.8 and 20.2 hours.
2. About 95% of the batteries have a life between what two values?
μ ±2 standard deviations; 19 ± 2(1.2) hours;
Between 16.6 and 21.4 hours.
3. We can expect about 99%, or practically all of the batteries to last
between 15.4 and 22.6 hours.
μ ±3 standard deviations; 19 ± 3(1.2) hours;

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Example

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Example

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Finding Areas under the Normal Curve
What is the z-value of income for a
driver who earns $1,100?

x−μ $1,100−$1,000
Z= = = 1.00
σ $100

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:


P($1,000 < weekly income < $1,100) = .3413
P(weekly income < $1,100) = .3413 + .5000 =.8413
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Finding Areas under the Normal Curve
(2 of 4)
What is the z-value of income for a
driver who earns $790?

x−μ $790−$1,000
Z= = = -2.10
σ $100

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:


P($790 <weekly income < $1,000) = .4821
P(weekly income < $790) = .5000 − .4821 = .0179

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the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve
(3 of 4)

What is the z-value of income for a


driver who earns $840?

x−μ $840−$1,000
Z= = = -1.60
σ $100

What is the z-value of income for a


driver who earns $1,200?

x−μ $1200−$1,000
Z= = = 2.00
σ $100

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:


P($840 <weekly income < $1,000) = .4452
P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,200) = .4772
P($840 < weekly income < $1,200) = .4452 + .4772 = .9224

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Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve
(4 of 4)

What is the z-value of income for a


driver who earns $1,250?

x−μ $1,250−$1,000
Z= = = 2.50
σ $100

What is the z-value of income for a


driver who earns $1,150?

x−μ $1,150−$1,000
Z= = = 1.50
σ $100

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:


P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,250) = .4938
P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,150) = .4332
P($1,150 < weekly income < $1,250) = .4938 − .4332 = .0606
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Finding a Value for x Using z
Layton Tire and Rubber Company wishes to set a minimum mileage
guarantee on its new MX100 tire. Tests reveal the mean mileage is
67,900 with a standard deviation of 2,050 miles and that the distribution
follows the normal distribution. Layton wants to set the minimum
guaranteed mileage so that no more than 4% of the tires will have to be
replaced. What minimum guaranteed mileage should Layton guarantee?
Let x represent the minimum guaranteed mileage.

x − μ x −67,900
z= = and from the table we find z = -1.75
σ 2,050
x −67,900
so -1.75 = = therefore, x = 64,312 miles
2,050
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Example

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Chapter 7 Practice Problems

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Question 1 LO-1
A uniform distribution is defined over the interval from 6 to 10.

a. What are the values for a and b?


b. What is the mean of this uniform distribution?
c. What is the standard deviation?
d. Show that the probability of any value between 6 and 10 is
equal to 1.0.
e. What is the probability that the random variable is more
than 7?
f. What is the probability that the random variable is between
7 and 9?
g. What is the probability that the random variable is equal to
7.91?

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Question 1 LO-1

a. b = 10, a = 6
b. μ = (6 + 10) / 2 = 8
c. σ = SQRT((10 − 6)^2/12) = 1.1547
d. Area = 1/(10 − 6) · (10 − 6)/1 = 1
e. P(x > 7) = 1/(10 − 6) · 10 − 7/1 = 3/4 = .75
f. P(7 ≤ x ≤ 9) = 1/(10 − 6) · (9 − 7)/1 =2/4= .50
g. P ( x= 7.91 ) = 0.
For a continuous probability distribution, the area for a
point value is zero.

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Question 9 LO7-3

The mean of a normal probability distribution is 500; the


standard deviation is 10.

a. About 68% of the observations lie between what two


values?
b. About 95% of the observations lie between what two
values?
c. Practically all of the observations lie between what two
values?

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Question 9 LO7-3

 a. 490 and 510, found by 500 ± 1(10)


 b. 480 and 520, found by 500 ± 2(10)
 c. 470 and 530, found by 500 ± 3(10)

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Question 13 LO7-3

A normal population has a mean of 20.0 and a standard


deviation of 4.0.

a. Compute the z value associated with 25.0.


b. What proportion of the population is between 20.0 and
25.0?
c. What proportion of the population is less than 18.0?

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Question 13 LO7-3

 a. 1.25, found by z = (25 − 20)/4.0 = 1.25


 b. 0.3944, found in Appendix B.3
 c. 0.3085, found by z = (18 − 20)/2.5 = −0.5
 Find 0.1915 in Appendix B.3 for z = −0.5, then 0.5000
− 0.1915 = 0.3085.

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Question 19 LO7-3

The Internal Revenue Service reported the average refund


in 2017 was $2,878 with a standard deviation of $520.
Assume the amount refunded is normally distributed.

a. What percent of the refunds are more than $3,500?


b. What percent of the refunds are more than $3,500 but
less than $4,000?
c. What percent of the refunds are more than $2,400 but
less than $4,000?

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Question 19 LO7-3
 a. 0.1151: Begin by using formula (7–5) to find the z-value for $3,500,
which is (3,500 − 2,878)/520, or 1.20. Then see Appendix B.3 to find
the area between 0 and 1.20, which is 0.3849.
 Finally, since the area of interest is beyond 1.20, subtract that
probability from 0.5000. The result is 0.5000 − 0.3849, or 0.1151.
 b. 0.0997: Use formula (7–5) to find the z-value for $4,000, which is
(4,000 − 2,878)/520, or 2.16. Then see Appendix B.3 for the area
under the standard normal curve. That probability is 0.4846. Since
the two points (1.20 and 2.16) are on the same side of the mean,
subtract the smaller probability from the larger. The result is 0.4846
− 0.3849 = 0.0997.
 c. 0.8058: Use formula (7–5) to find the z-value for $2,400, which is
− 0.92, found by (2,400 − 2,878)/520.The corresponding area is
0.3212. Since − 0.92 and 2.16 are on different sides of the mean, add
the corresponding probabilities. Thus, we find 0.3212 + 0. 4846 =
0.8058.

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Question 27 LO7-3

According to media research, the typical American listened to


195 hours of music in the last year. This is down from 290 hours
4 years earlier. Dick Trythall is a big country and western music
fan. He listens to music while working around the house, reading,
and riding in his truck. Assume the number of hours spent
listening to music follows a normal probability distribution with a
standard deviation of 8.5 hours.

a. If Dick is in the top 1% in terms of listening time, how many


hours did he listen last year?
b. Assume that the distribution of times 4 years earlier also
follows the normal probability distribution with a standard
deviation of 8.5 hours. How many hours did the 1% who
listen to the least music actually listen?
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Question 27 LO7-3

 a. 214.8 hours: Find a z-value where 0.4900 of area is


between 0 and z. That value is z = 2.33.Then solve
for x: 2.33 = (x − 195)∕8.5, so x = 214.8 hours.
 b. 270.2 hours: Find a z-value where 0.4900 of area is
between 0 and (−z). That value is z = −2.33.Then
solve for x: −2.33 = (x − 290)∕8.5, so x = 270.2 hours.

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