RESEARCH PROPOSAL

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF LAND USE LAND COVER AND THEIR

IMPACTS ON LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF DISTRICT SWAT,
PAKISTAN

SUBMITTED BY FAZAL HAQ

M. Phil Scholar
SUPERVISOR Dr.MUHAMMAD JAMAL NASIR

GRADUATE STUDIES COMMITTEE

Convener
Prof. Dr. Atta Ur Rahman
(Chairman)

Prof. Dr. IffatTabassum Prof. Dr. Zulfiqar Ali

(Member) (Member)

Dr. Muhammad Jamal Nasir Dr. Samiullah

(Member) (Member)

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY & GEOMETICS

UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR,
SESSION 2020-2023

Introduction
Fast urbanization fosters the land conversion processes and rapid rise of surface temperature in a
very short duration (Du et al., 2016; Guha et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2018; Nasir et al., 2022). Land
use land cover (LULC) changes are believed to be the remarkable anthropogenic transformation
of earth and its environment (Patra et al., 2018). According to Roberts et al. (2015), Land use is
the human modification of the natural environment or wildness into built environment such as
field, pasture, industrialization, settlement and agriculture practice etc. Indirect and direct effects
of land use land cover change on the climate, biodiversity, and natural and human systems are
some of the primary factors contributing to global environmental change (Turner et al., 2007;
Black et al., 2011). LULC change is the result of the complex interaction of numerous variables,
that operate at both the global level (such as global warming, global markets), and local
level (such as topography, soil fertility, population change, etc.), (Oliver and Morecroft 2014;
Msofe, 2019). This alteration seriously affects the local and regional environment by the process
of urbanization (Khan & Zhao 2019). LULC change due to anthropogenic activities causes the
rise of surface temperature (Song et al. 2018; Rahaman et al., 2020). The rapid growth of human
population is a prime cause for LULC change (Moisa et al. 2021; Negash et al. 2021).

Though, there are multiple factors behind the LULCC, but urbanization is one of the most
significant factors contribute to increase the air and surface temperature (Pal & Ziaul, 2017).
Variations in vegetation cover, changes in land use, and urban expansion all have a significant
impact on the urban microclimate (Wang et al., 2016). According to earlier studies, LULC
alterations have the ability to significantly impact the environment, changing the urban climate.
Over the years, human dependence on land use has been increasing (Chen et al., 2016).
Nowadays, the intensity, degree, and rate of changes in LULC are far greater than ever in history
(Namugize et al., 2018). Due to rapid population growth and rural-urban migration the urban
(built-up) area is expected to reach 66% in 2050, which was only 3% in 1950 (Mohajerani et al.,
2017; UN, 2018). A number of environmental issues have been intensifying as a result of a
higher urban growth (Mohammad et al., 2019). One of the most significant environmental
impacts of urbanization is the change of LST and increasing Urban Heat Island (UHI), which in
most cases significantly affects urban internal thermal characteristics (Orimoloye et al., 2018).
UHI is the temperature difference between rural and urban areas (Dhalluin & Bozonnet 2015).
LST is the measure of heat emitted from land surface (Rajendran & Mani, 2015). Land surface
temperature is an important climatic variable associated with global warming/climate change, as
well as a key parameter of surface energy and heat balance at the local and regional levels (Zou
et al. 2020; Liu et al. 2021). Rapid urban expansion leads to the formation of impermeable
concrete urban jungle by converting rich green cover into buildings, roadways, pavements and
other infrastructure; leading to high heat flow in urban area (Ramachandra et al., 2016). This
makes the urban centers to experiences warmer weather than their neighboring localities (Bokaie
et al., 2016; Guo et al., 2015).

Pakistan has seen an expeditious urbanization comparing with other countries in the South Asia
(Kedir et al., 2016). The rising temperature and its impacts in Pakistan have started to manifest
itself through an increasing temperature and changes in land cover, leading to several
catastrophic risks for the country (Amber & Kee., 2021). The occurrence of UHI is seen in
Lahore due to changes in land use land cover, causing temperature variations leading to climate
change in the city (Basit et al, 2019). The rising urbanization and Land cover change has also
accumulated to increase in temperature of the Gujranwala city (Liaquat et al., 2019).
Urbanization and industrialization are accounting for the rapid escalation in temperature of
Peshawar city and its neighboring localities which give birth to climatic term UHI which was
estimated by using remotely sensed data (Mehmood et al., 2017). More recently Nasir et al.,
(2022) studied the impact of LULCC on land surface temperature of Kohat city, Pakistan. The
study reveals that the built-up area increased from 3969.04ha in 1998 to 6147.06ha in 2018. The
average temperature during this period increased from 31.81°C in 1998 to 36.17°C in 2018. The
heavily populated built-up area in the city center had higher LST than the other LULCC. The
built-up area LST increased from 42.8°C in 1998 to 46.9°C in 2018.

Most of the recent armed conflicts have occurred in areas rich in biodiversity. Conflict is
possibly the most devastating blow to farmland in many emerging regions of the world (Eklund
et al., 2017). Literature suggests that hostilities influence land-use land cover changes in a
variety of ways, such as the abandonment of farmland by temporary displaced people (TDPs)
(Gorsevski et al., 2011); decreased land use and agriculture intensity and utility due to insecurity
and shortage of manpower and inputs (Ordway, 2015; Eklund et al., 2017). 
According to studies, between 1968 and 2007—a 40-year period—almost 50% of the forest in
Swat district has disappeared at the expanse of tremendous increase in farmland and built-up area
(Qasim et al., 2011; Qasim et al., 2013). This study aimed to determine the changes in land use
land cover patterns and land surface temperature in district Swat over a period of two decades
2002-2022. 

Study Area

In terms of size, Swat is the fifteenth-largest district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province having a
total area of 5,337 km2. District Swat is geographically situated between 34° 30' to 35° 50' North
latitude and 72° 10' to 73° 10' East longitude. Geographical location of study area, district Chitral
is located in the North, Shangla districts on the East, Malakand and Buner districts are located on
southern side and the Western side is bordered by district lower Dir and upper Dir. With an
altitude ranging between 710 to 5910m above sea level and lush green forests, alpine
pastures, and snow-clad mountains, the district experience climate that is significantly cooler and
wetter than the rest of the country. Western Himalayan subalpine conifer forests and Himalayan
subtropical pine forests are the two ecological zones that make up the area. District Swat
popularly known as Switzerland of Pakistan is regarded as one of the most famous tourist
attractions of country. 

According to the 2017 census, Swat has a total population of 2,308,624 people, 1,171,947 of
whom are men and 1,136,544 of whom are women. The average annual population growth rate
between 1998 and 2017 is recorded as 3.24 percent. In the district, the overall literacy rate was
50% in 2012–2013, with 73 percent of males and 27% of females being literate. Rural areas of
the district have a substantially lower literacy rate than urbanized areas. For the vast majority of
people, farming is their primary source of livelihood. According to the 1998 census of
population, 50.11 percent of the workforce is employed in farming, fishing, and lumbering,
followed by 13.75 percent in community, social, and personal services, 11.9% in retail and
wholesale business, and in restaurants and hotels (GoP 1998).
 Figure 1. The location of Study Area Map, District Swat

Research Problem

In the 40 years between 1968 and 2007, 75.1% of the forest area in lower Swat valley was
converted to rangeland, compared to 37.8% in Upper Swat. Similarly, cropland has expanded
during the study period at the expense of declining rangeland and forestland. Rangeland in the
upper, middle, and lower swat valley was consumed by agriculture at rates of 17.2, 30.8, and
51.1%, respectively (Qasim et al., 2013). Due to the region's growing population, the built-up
area in the Swat district has also increased exponentially (Arif et al., 2015). The growth of the
built environment, deforestation, and farmland expansion have changed LULC dynamics, which
increased Land surface temperature.
Research Purpose

The purpose of the research is to assess the changes in LULC and its implication for land surface
temperature and the development of urban heat islands in built-up areas of district Swat for the
years 2002 to 2022.

Research questions

1. What are the Spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC of Swat district for the years 2002-
2012 and 2022)?
2. What is the relationship between LULCC, Land Surface temperature and Surface Urban
Heat Island?
Objectives

1. To evaluate the Spatial-temporal dynamics of LULC in District Swat for the years 2002,
2012, and 2022.
2. To compute the LST using the thermal bands of Landsat 5, 7, and Landsat 9 images for
the years 2002, 2012, and 2022.
3. To analyze how LULCC affects land surface temperature and the development of urban
heat islands in the study area.

Plan of Work

Activities Quarters
2022 2023
1 st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
Literature Review
Synopsis Development
Data Collection
Data Analysis
Thesis Writing
Research variables
The following factors will be selected as research variable:

Independent variable
• Built up area
• Agricultural land
• Water bodies
• Deforestation

Dependent variables
• Land surface temperature
• Air temperature

Material and Methods

Data Collection
The current study is solely reliant on remote sensing data that will be gathered from diverse
sources. The Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-7 ETM and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS data for the years 2002,
2012, 2022, will be acquired from the USGS Earth Explorer website, to accomplish the first and
second objective. The properties of the Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-7 ETM and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS
data are displayed in Table 1.

Table 1. showing the attributes of the Landsat-5TM, Landsat-7ETM and Landsat-9 OLI-TIRS
images
Data Set Attribute LANDSAT-5 26-05-2002 LANDSAT-7 21-05-2012 LANDSAT_9 17-05-2022
Landsat Scene Identifier LE71510372002146SGS00 LE71510372012142PFS00 LC91510372022137LGN00
Date Acquired 26-05-2002 21-05-2012 17-05-202
WRS Path 151 151 151
WRS Row 35,36 35,36 35,36
Satellite Landsat 5 Landsat 7 Landsat 9
Product Map Projection L2 U T M Zone 42 U T M Zone 42 U T M Zone 42
Sensor Identifier TM ETM OLI-TIRS
Source: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/scene/metadata/full
The air temperature data of the study area and surrounding district will be acquired from the
regional meteorological office in Peshawar. The District Census Reports for the district of Swat
will be used to compile population data for the years 1998 and 2017.
Data Analysis
LULC Change detection
Utilizing satellite images that have been acquired, the classification process will be carried out in
the Arc GIS 10.8 environment utilizing the maximum likelihood classifier method as per
conventional practice. Using the supervised classification approach in Arc GIS 10.5 the acquired
images will be classified into various land use and land cover (LULC) classes.  The
Classification of the images and subsequent detection of changes in LULC will comprise the
following procedures.
 Extraction of Area of Interest
 Creation of feature class training samples
 Creation of Signature class
 Supervised classification (2002, 2012 and 2022)
 Area Calculation under various LULC classes (2002, 2012 and 2022)
 Change detection
 Accuracy Assessment

Retrieval of LST
LST will be computed using Landsat TM's thermal infrared imagery. Band 6 (Landsat TM and
ETM+) and Band 10 (OLI) both these sensors capture the heat radiation emitted from the earth
surface. The thermal data obtained by sensors are stored as digital numbers (DN). From remotely
sensed data, DN can be converted into brightness temperature and radiance to compute the LST.

LST retrieval from Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 images

The following step are involved in calculation of LST from DN values:
 Transforming DNs values into spectral radiance through equation (1)

 Conversion of spectral radiation into brightness temperature using Equation (2):

 where T stands for the brightness temperature that will be obtained from the previous
equation. LY is spectral radiance, K1 and K2 are the constants.
 Conversion of temperature from kelvin (K) to degrees Celsius (°C) by Equation (3).
TB °=TB ( kelvin ) −273.15 … … … … … .(3)
 Calculation of LST from brightness temperature by using equation (4):
LST =TB/ [ 1+ ( λ ×TB/ ρ ) × ln ( ε ) ]…………… (4)
 To derive the value of ε, first the proportion of vegetation (PV), will be acquired
from the NDVI using equation (5):

 The surface emissivity will be derived by using equation (6):

ε =0.004 PV +0.986 --------- (6)
Emissivity is one of the crucial characteristics for LST quantification. NDVI is a
threshold technique for emissivity assessment because to its capacity to differentiate
between pixels of water, plant, and soil (Sobrino et al., 2004).

 Derivation of NDVI, NDBI, NDWI and Normalize Difference Bareness Index

(NDBaI), using equation (7a) (Johansen & Tommervik., 2014).

LST retrieval from Landsat-9 OLI-TIRS

Following steps are involved in LST estimation from Landsat-9 OLI-TIRS for the year 2022
 Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) spectral radiance Calculation using equation (Eq.8).

 Brightness Temperature (BT) through equation (Eq. 9) (Dash et al., 2002) 

  NDVI calculation by Eq. 10

 Proportion of vegetation (pv) calculation by Equation 9 (Wang et al. 2016). 

 Calculating land surface emissivity (ε) Using Eq. 11,

 Land surface temperature (LST) calculation using Eq. (Stathopoulous and Curtails,
2007)

In order to determine the impact of LULC on LST and UHI, the correlation between LULC and
LST will be determined using regression analysis. Figure 2 illustrates the suggested methodology
that will be used to achieve the research aim and objectives.
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