Module 1 - Probability - An Introduction

What is probability?

While statistics deals with data and inferences from it, probability deals with the random processes that
are behind data or outcomes.

Do you think that "the sun would rise tomorrow morning". Probably your answer would be a certain "YES".
You are sure about it, aren't you? If you are sure about the outcome of an event, we call it a certainty.

Whenever we’re unsure about the outcome of an event, we can talk about probabilities., i.e., probabilities
of outcomes of an event—how likely they are to occur. Hence, probability is the extent to which an
outcome is likely to happen.

Mathematically,

The best example for understanding probability is tossing a coin:

If you toss a coin, there are two possible outcomes, and each of these outcomes is equally likely. A head
is as likely to come up as a tail.

the probability of getting a head in a toss is = number of heads / total number of outcomes i.e., here
head and tail

Hence, the probability of getting a head in a toss is = 1/2

If you roll a dice, what is the probability of you getting 1.

If you roll a six-sided die, there are six possible outcomes, and each of these outcomes is equally
likely. A one is as likely to come up as a three. There are six possible outcomes.

There are six possible outcomes, 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Hence, the probability of getting 1 when a dice is rolled is = 1/6

Axiom 1

Probability can range in between 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an impossible one and 1
indicates a certain event.

For example, in tossing a coin, what is the probability of getting a 9?

There is no 9 in a dice, right, so it is an impossible event and the probability is zero.

If we call an event to be 'A' then the probability of occurrence of A is written as

P(A) i.e., probability of occurrence of an event A

BASIC CONCEPTS
Experiment and Trial
An experiment is any procedure that can be repeated any number of times, and the possible outcomes
are known. An experiment is said to be random if it has more than one possible outcome.

For example, tossing a coin. We know that there are only 2 possible outcomes head and tail and
tossing can be repeated any number of times. While tossing a coin, the outcome is uncertain i.e., we
don't know whether head or tail would turn.

Hence, tossing a coin is considered as an experiment.

Performing an experiment is called a trial.

2. Sample Space (S)

It is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. It is usually denoted by the letter S.

For example, if we toss a coin, the experiment here is tossing a coin.

The two possible outcomes are head and tail.

The sample space is S={Head, Tail}.

S= {HH, TT, HT, TH}, where H indicates a Head and T indicates a Tail.

This can be better understood by a tree diagram.

Axiom 2

The two possible outcomes are head and tail.

The sample space is {Head, Tail}.

The probability of getting a head is 1/2 and the tail is 1/2. Hence the total probability of all events
(head and tail ) is 1/2 + 1/2 - 1

P(S)=1

2. Tree Diagram
Tree diagram is a pictorial representation of different possible outcomes. It consists of branches
(represented by an arrow) and ends (represented by circles or outcomes). Probability of each branch is
written on the branch, whereas the ends are containing the final outcome.

Toss a coin

When a coin is tossed twice, what is the probability of getting 2 heads?

From the tree diagram, we can compute , P(HH) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.
Take a challenge

Draw a tree diagram showing all possible combinations of three children families based on gender.

If B denotes a boy and G denotes a girl.

The possible combinations are {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}, which is the sample space.

Problem:
You are off to the Indian cricket team, and want to be the opening batsman, but that depends who is the
Coach today:with Coach Ravisastri the probability of you being an opening batsman is 0.6, with Coach
Rahul Dravid the probability of you being an opening batsman is 0.3. Ravisastri is Coach more often,
about 6 out of every 10 games (a probability of 0.6). So, what is the probability you will be an opening
batsman today?

DRAW A TREE DIAGRAM AND CALCULATE

ANS: 0.36+0.12=0.48

Another example,
A bag contains 5 red, 4 white and 3 blue balls. You pick a ball at random. The possible colour of the
ball could be red, white or blue.

The probability of a red ball is 5/12

The probability of a white ball is 4/12

The probability of a blue ball is 3/12

Adding all possible outcomes, 5/12 + 4/12 + 3/12 = 1

3. Experiments - with replacement and without replacement

When an experiment is conducted repeatedly, we have to check whether the experiment is conducted
repeatedly under the same conditions or not. For example,

When a card is drawn at random from a pack of cards, What is the probability of getting a king?

P(King) = 4/52

When two cards are drawn at random, what is the probability that the cards are king and queen?

Here there are actually two ways you can solve the problem.

After the first draw, the card might have been put again in the pack and the second card is drawn under
the same condition as the first card drawn, or

after the first draw, the card might not have been put again in the deck and the second card is drawn
under different conditions as the first card. I.e., for the second draw, the pack had only 51 cards.

In the first case, the probability is 4/52*4/52

In the second case, the probability is 4/52*4/51

The first is the case of replacement and the second is the case of without replacement.

Take a challenge

A box contains 4 purple balls, 5 orange balls and 11 yellow balls. If three balls are drawn from the box
at random without replacement, what is the probability that the first ball is orange, the second ball is
purple, and the third ball is yellow?

Answer: 5/20 x 4/19 x 11/18 = 44/1368 = 0.032

4. Complementary Events
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states that an event will occur or not. If we
consider the occurrence of an event, then it's complementary is non occurrence of the event. Basically,
the complement of an event occurring is the exact opposite that the probability of it is not occurring.

If the event is denoted by A, then it's complement is denoted by A' or Ac .

P(A') = 1-P(A)

A bag contains five blue balls and 6 red balls, a ball is taken at random from the bag. What is the
probability of getting a blue ball?

Totally there are 11 balls in the bag and there are 5 blue balls.

Let the event of getting a blue ball is denoted by 'B'

P(B)= 5/11

A ball is taken at random from the bag. What is the probability of getting a red ball?
Let the event of getting a red ball is denoted by 'R'

P(R)= 6/11

A ball is taken at random from the bag. What is the probability of not getting a blue ball?

There are only two different coloured balls in the bag. If a blue ball is not taken, it means that a red ball
is taken. Hence, this question is the same as the above one.

Using complementary,

probability of not getting a blue ball = 1 - probability of getting a blue ball

P(B') = 1- P(B)

= 1-5/11

= 6/11

A dice is rolled, what is the probability that the top face shows anything other than 1?

It means that the top face of the dice might show 2,3,4,5,6

P(1') = any one of the above five possibilities = 5/6

or

P(1') = 1-P(1)

= 1-1/6 = 5/6

5. Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time.

For example, if we toss a coin, either head or tail turn up, but not both head and tail at the same time.

If a dice is rolled, we can only have one number shown at the top face. The numbers on the face are
mutually exclusive events.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events then the probability of A happening OR the probability
of B happening is P(A) + P(B).

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

When a dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting a 3 or a 6?

Solution:

P(3) = 1/6

P(6) = 1/6

P(3 or 6) = 1/6+1/6 = 1/3

If A and B are not mutually exclusive events, then

P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)

Axiom 4
P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)

If, events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)

Take a challenge

Three coins are tossed at the same time. A is the event of getting at least 2 heads. B denotes the event
of getting no heads, C is the event of getting heads on the second coin and D is the event of getting
heads on the third coin. Which of these are mutually exclusive?

Solution:

A = {HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}.

B = { TTT }

C = { THT, HHH, HHT, THH }

D = {HHH, TTH, HTH, THH}

B and C, B and D, and A and C are mutually exclusive since they have nothing in their intersection.

6. INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Events A and B are independent events if the probability of Event B occurring is the same whether
event A occurs or not. For example, if you throw two dice, the probability that the second die comes up
3 is independent of what turns up in the top face of the first dice.

When two events A and B are independent, the probability of both occurring is the product of the
probabilities of the individual events. More formally, if events A and B are independent, then the
probability of both A and B occurring is:

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)

This gives the multiplication rule to find the probability of independent events occurring together.

Let A and B be independent events. Then the probability of A and B occurring is:
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ˙ P(B)

If you toss a coin twice, what is the probability that it will come up heads both times?

Event A is that the coin comes up heads on the first flip and Event B is that the coin comes up heads
on the second flip. Since both P(A) and P(B) equal 1/2, the probability that both events occur is

1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4.

This can be understood through the tree diagram we discussed.

If a dice is thrown twice, what is the probability of getting two 6?

A dice is thrown what is the probability of getting a 6, it is 1/6.

When the dice is thrown again, the outcome of the second throw is no way affected by the result of the
first throw.

In the second throw, the probability of getting a 6 is 1/6.

Hence, the probability of getting two 6 is 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36.

Next: Take a challenge

Take a challenge

At a parking lot there are 100 vehicles, 65 of which are cars, 26 are bikes and the remaining are
bicycles. If every vehicle is equally likely to leave, find the probability of:

1. a bike leaving first.

2. a car leaving first.
3. a bicycle leaving first
4. a car leaving second if either a bike or a bicycle had left first.

Answer

1. 26/100
2. 65/100
3. 9/100
4. 65/99

Module 1 - Short Answer Questions

1. You walk in a road, what is the probability that you meet someone with a phone number ending
in 3 or 6? Ans: 1/5 or 20%
2. What is the probability that a card picked from a pack is both King and Red in color?
3. What are mutually exclusive events?
4. If 2 cards picked from a pack of cards without replacement, what is the probability of
picking two Queens?
5. What are independent events?

Module 1 - Long Answer Questions

1. A researcher has found that the probability that a randomly selected student from a class is a
girl is .56 and is a girl and plays sports is .22. If we pick a student from the class and if it is a girl
student, what is the probability that she plays sports?
2. An Automobile seller sells cars made by 3 different manufacturers, namely MG, Honda and
Maruthi. The probability of selling these cars in a day is 0.25, 0.38, and 0.44 respectively. Are
these cars disjoint?
3. Three coins are tossed at the same time. A is the event of getting at least 2 heads. B denotes
the event of getting no heads, C is the event of getting heads on the second coin and D is the
event of getting heads on the third coin. Which of these are mutually exclusive?
Module 2 - Relative Frequency Approach to Probability
Module 2 - Lesson

Relative Frequency Approach to Probability

Let me start with the question on the previous session.

When a coin is tossed, What is the probability of getting a head?

Is it 1/2., i.e.., When you toss a coin twice you have to get a head once, is it right.

Can you do the experiment by yourself and record the results. Just toss the coin twice and observe the
result.

Do you get different answers, did you get both tails?. If so, why.

Here comes the concept of relative approach to probability.

There are many approaches to probability.

1. Classical Approach

If an experiment has n outcomes, this approach assigns a probability of 1/n to each outcome where
each outcome is assumed to have an equal probability of occurrence. This method is also called the
axiomatic approach.

This is what we discussed in the first lesson.

2. Relative Frequency Approach

The relative frequency is not a theoretical quantity, but an experimental one. Probabilities are assigned
on the basis of experimentation or historical data.

Let A be an event of interest, and assume that we performed the same experiment n times. Hence, N is
the number of times an experiment is performed. Let NA be the number of times that A occurred. Now,
consider the relative frequency NA/N. Then, in this method, we “attempt” to define P(A) as: P(A) = lim
N→∞ NA / N.

Limitation:

1. It is just an attempt because it is not feasible to repeat an experiment an infinite number of

times.
2. Two sets of n experiments will typically result in two different ratios. However, we expect the
discrepancy to converge to 0 for large n.

Hence, for large n, the ratio nA/n may be taken as a reasonable approximation for P(A).

The observed relative frequency is just an approximation to the true probability of an event. However, if
we were able to perform our process more and more times, the relative frequency will eventually
approach the actual probability.

A frequency is the number that tells how many times a data or an event is repeating in an experiment.
Cumulative frequency is the total of all frequencies of all events that are below a particular point in a
given list of events.

Relative frequency is the absolute frequency normalized by the total number of events.

Relative frequency

The relative frequency of an event is defined as the number of times that the event occurs during
experimental trials, divided by the total number of trials conducted.

Relative Frequency (Rf) = number of successful trials / Total number of trials

Relative frequency approach defines probability as either the observed relative frequency of an event
in a very large number of trials or the proportion of times that an event occurs in the long run when
conditions are stable.

Try this

Put 3 Blue balls and five red balls in a bag. Take a ball from the bag and note down the colour. Replace
the ball into the bag and repeat the experiment for 10 times.

I did it and the results are

Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Outcome Red Red Blue Blue Blue Red Red Blue Blue Blue
I got a red ball on 4 trials so the relative frequency of the event that a red ball was taken is 4/10 (=0.4).

The theoretical or classical approach of probability indicates that the probability of taking a red ball
from the bag is 5/8 (=0.625)

Is it not? My experimental results are different from the results of my theoretical approach.

Now repeat the experiment another 10 times and combine the result.

I did it and now I got the relative frequency of the event that a red ball was taken is 8/20 (=0.4)

Again, I repeated the experiment and combined the results.

Now I got the relative frequency of the event that a red ball was taken is 15//30 (=0.5)

If you repeat the experiment many times, you could observe the probability of picking a red ball
approaching 0.625.

Hence, The observed relative frequency is just an approximation of the theoretical probability of an
event. If we can perform the experiment more and more times, the relative frequency will eventually
approach the actual probability. This interpretation of probability rests on the important assumption
that our process or experiment can be repeated many times under similar circumstances.

The relative frequency approach uses the relative frequencies of past occurrences as probabilities.
This past data is used to predict the future.

Problems

1. Below is the monthly earnings of 300 salesmen.

Salary Below 10000 10000-20000 20000-30000 30000-40000 40000-50000 Above 50000
Frequency 15 25 35 125 70 30
What is the probability that a salesperson would earn monthly

1. below 10000 rs?

2. between 10000-20000 Rs?
3. between 20000-400000 rupees?
4. less than 20000 Rs?
5. more than 40000 Rs?

Solution:

Let us calculate the probabilities for each cell and write first.

For the first cell, it is 15/300=0.05.

Similarly calculate for each cell.

Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3 Cell 4 Cell 5 Cell 6

Salary Below 10000 10000-20000 20000-30000 30000-40000 40000-50000 Above 50000
Frequency 15 25 35 125 70 30
Probability 0.05 0.0833 0.1167 0.4167 0.2333 0.1
Cell numbers are given only for reference.

Now try to answer the questions

1. Probability of a sales person earning below 10000 Rs is (Look into the cell1)=0.05

2. Probability of a sales person earning between 10000-20000 Rs is (Look into the cell2)=0.0833

3. Probability of a sales person earning between 20000-40000 Rs is (Look into the cells 3 &
4)=0.1167+0.4167 = 0.5334

4. Probability of a sales person earning less than 20000 Rs is (Look into the cells 1 & 2)=0.05 + 0.0833
= 0.1333

5. Probability of a sales person earning more than 40000 Rs is (Look into the cells 5 & 6)=0.2333+0.1 =
0.3333

Problem 2:

The poll results of nurses and doctors regarding new leave policy is given below

Opinion Number of Nurses Number of Doctors

Strongly Supports 9 10
Mildly Supports 11 13
Undecided 2 2
Mildly Oppose 4 8
Strongly Oppose 4 7
What is the probability

1. that a nurse randomly selected from the polled group mildly supports the leave policy?
2. that a doctor randomly selected from the polled group is undecided about the leave policy?
3. that a randomly selected doctor mildly or strongly supports the leave policy?
 4. that a randomly selected employee is undecided on the leave policy?
5. that a randomly selected employee mildly or strongly opposes the leave policy?

Answer:

1. What is the probability that a nurse randomly selected from the polled group mildly supports the
leave policy?

In total, we have 30 nurses and out of which 11 of them mildly support the leave policy.

Hence the required probability is 11/30 = 0.3667.

2. What is the probability that a doctor randomly selected from the polled group is undecided about the
leave policy?

In total, we have 40 doctors and out of which 2 of them are undecided about the leave policy.

Hence the required probability is 2/40 = 0.05.

3. What is the probability that a randomly selected doctor mildly or strongly supports the leave policy?

Out of the 40 doctors, 13 of them mildly support and 10 of them strongly supports the wage policy.

Note: Remember, only one opinion is allowed. I.e., opinions are mutually exclusive.

Probability of mildly or strongly supports = Probability of mildly support+probability of strongly support

+ Probability of both mildly and strongly support

Probability of both mildly and strongly support is zero., Remember, in a polling, only one opinion is
allowed. i.e., opinions are mutually exclusive.

Hence, the required probability is = Probability of mildly support+probability of strongly support

= 13/40 + 10/40 = 0.325 + 0.25 = 0.575

4. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee is undecided on the leave policy?

Note that the question asked is about the employee and not about a nurse or a doctor. An employee
here is a nurse or a doctor.

There were totally 70 employees who had polled.

Out of the 70( 2 nurses and 2 doctors), 4 employees are undecided.

Hence, the required probability is 4/70 = 0.0571

5. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee mildly or strongly opposes the leave
policy?

Similar to the above, out of the 70 employees, 23 of them mildly or strongly oppose the leave policy (4
nurses mildly and 4 nurses strongly oppose the leave policy; 8 doctors mildly and 7 doctors strongly
oppose the leave policy)

Hence, the required probability is 23/70 = 0.3286.

Take a challenge

A survey was taken on 60 classes at a University to find the total number of foreign students in each
class. The table below shows the results:

No. of Foreign students 0 1 2 3 4 5

No. of classes 2 4 13 18 12 11
A class was selected at random. What is the probability

1. that the class has 2 foreign students.

2. that the class has at least 3 foreign students
3. Given that the total number of students in the 60 classes is 3600, find the probability that a
student randomly chosen from these 60 classes is a foreigner.

Answer:

Caution: Both the data: foreign students and classes are given as frequencies.

1. What is the probability that the a randomly chosen class has 2 foreign students?

Number of classes having 2 foreign students = 13

Total number of classes = 60

Hence, the answer is 13/60 = 0.2167

2. What is the probability that a randomly chosen class has at least 3 foreign students?

At Least 3 foreign students means, a class should have a minimum of 3 foreign students., that is a can
have 3 or 4 or 5 foreign students.

Here, there are 3 foreign students in 18 classes, 4 foreign students in 12 classes and 5 foreign
students in 11 classes. Hence, adding all these, there are 41 classes which have a minimum of 3
foreign students.

Hence, the required probability is 41/60 = 0.6833

3. First, find the total number of foreign students in all these 60 classes

No. of Foreign students (f) 0 1 2 3 4 5

No. of classes (c) 2 4 13 18 12 11
F*c 0 4 26 54 48 55
Total number of foreign students in all these 60 classes= 0+4+26+54+48+55= 187

Hence, the probability that a student randomly chosen from these 60 classes is a foreigner = total
number of foreign students in 60 classes/ total number of students in 60 classes

= 187/3600

= 0.0519

3. Subjective Approach to Probability

What is the probability of you passing this subject with the top most grade 'A'?
Your answer could be anything between 0 to 1.

If you are completely sure about getting A, it may be 1 or completely sure about not getting A, it is 0.

You may think that there are two possibilities, getting or not getting and hence the probability would be
1/2.This is a classical or theoretical approach to probability.

Take the case of the relative frequency approach.

In this case, you cannot repeat the course again and again and calculate the probabilities. Even if you
repeat the course, the next time the conditions of the course might be different, the instructor might be
different, the evaluation pattern might be different, .. many changes. So, in this case, the relative
approach to probability might not work.

The answer to this question completely lies on your judgment, based on your previous experiences,
your knowledge, your gut feeling.... It is completely based on your belief and the results vary from
individual to individual, that is the answer is completely subjective and not objective.

Subjective approach to probability is completely based on belief and majorly used for experiments that
could not be repeated.

This is called the Subjective Approach to probability.

Module 2 - Short Answer Questions

1. Which is a better approach to probability and why?
2. What are the limitations of relative frequency approach to probability?
3. When do you use the relative frequency approach?
4. What is a subjective approach to probability?
5. What is the limitation of subjective probability?

Module 2 - Long Answer Questions

1. Can you specify two scenarios in which relative probability approach is of great application?
2. The poll results of employees regarding the new wage policy is given below

What is the probability that a randomly selected employee mildly supports the wage policy?

b. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee mildly opposes the wage policy?

c. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee strongly supports the wage policy?

d. What is the probability that a randomly selected employee strongly opposes the wage policy?
3. Can you defend with examples the importance of relative frequency approach to probability is
useful in worldly scenarios?
Module 3 - Venn Diagrams and Probability
Module 3 - Lesson

What are Venn diagrams?

A Venn diagram is a pictorial representation of the outcomes of an experiment. It generally consists of

a box that represents the sample space S with circles that represent events. Two or three events could
be represented. It helps to convert English words into mathematical terms that help to visualize and
understand problems.

Venn diagrams are named after their inventor, John Venn, a mathematics professor at Cambridge
University. Venn diagrams gave a new way to approach issues of logic.

When working with more complex problems, we can have three or more events that intersect in various
ways. To solve these problems, we usually want to count the number (or percentage) of outcomes in an
event, or a combination of events. Venn diagrams are a useful tool for recording and visualising the
counts.

If A denotes the event and S is the sample space, the Venn diagram looks like

The striped area in the below diagram represents the complement of A

If we consider two sets A and B, then the Venn Diagram can be drawn as
In case, if A and B are two disjoint sets or if the events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the Venn
diagram is represented as

For example, If there are 10 students who have passed in English and 12 students who have passed in
Maths and 3 students in both, we can draw the diagram as

Let E represents english and M represents maths

Yellow color represents pass in maths only and not in english

Green color represents pass in english only and not in maths

The stripped area is complement of A or Ac

Similarly for three sets also.

Note: If there are more number of groups, generally more than three, then Venn diagrams are not preferred.
Only tables are preferred.

Even, if there are only three groups with many subgroups, then also tables are preferred than Venn
diagrams.

1.A group of 128 students were surveyed, and it was found that each of the students surveyed liked at
least one of the following three fruits: apple, blue berry, and cherry.

39 liked apples.
50 liked blue berries.
39 liked cherries.
21 liked apples and blue berries.
18 liked blue berries and cherries.
19 liked apples and cherries.

Exactly, 22 of them liked only any two of these fruits: Apples, Blue berries and cherries.

a. How many students liked apples, but not blue berries or cherries?
b. How many students liked cherries, but not blue berries or apples?
c. How many students liked all of the following three fruits: apples, blue berries, and cherries?
d. How many students liked apples and cherries, but not blue berries?

Solution:
2. In a survey of university students, 64 had taken mechanical course, 94 had taken computer course,
58 had taken psychology course, 28 had taken mechanical and computer, 26 had taken mechanical
and computer, 22 had taken computer and psychology course, and 14 had taken all the three
courses. Find how many had taken one course only.

Step 1 :

Venn diagram related to the information given in the question:

Step 2 :

From the venn diagram above, we have

No. of students who had taken only mechanical = 24

No. of students who had taken only computer = 60

No. of students who had taken only psychology = 22

Step 3 :

Total no. of students who had taken only one course

 = 24 + 60 + 22

= 106

Hence, the total number of students who had taken only one course is 106

2.In a survey of 500 people of a community, it was found that 49% liked eating fish, 53% liked eating hot
dog and 62% liked eating bread. Also, 27% liked eating fish and hot dog both, 29% liked eating hot dog
and bread both and 28% liked eating fish and bread both. 5% liked eating none of these foods.

How many people like eating all the three foods?

Find the ratio of number of people who like eating only fish to those who like eating only hot dog.

Find the number of people who like eating only one of the three given foods.

Find the number of people who like eating at least two of the given foods.

Solution:∪ H ∪

Now, make the Venn diagram as per the information given.

Note: All values in the Venn diagram are in percentage.

mber of people who like eating all the three foods = 15 % of 500 = 75.

Ratio of the number of people who like only fish to those who like only hot dog = (9% of 500)/(12% of 500)
= 9/12 = 3:4.

The number of people who like eating only one of the three given foods = (9% + 12% + 20%) of 500 = 205

The number of people who like eating at least two of the given foods=(number of people who like eating
only two of the foods) +(number of people who like eating all the three foods)= (12 + 13 + 14 + 15)% i.e.
54% of 500 = 270.

4.For the purposes of a Entertainment research, a survey of 1000 respondents is conducted in a cit. The
results show that 52 % liked watching Chinese movies, 45% liked watching French movies and 60% liked
watching Russian movies. In addition, 25% liked watching Chinese and French movies, 28% liked
watching Russian movies and French movies and 30% liked watching Chinese and Russian movies. 6%
liked watching none of these movies.

Here are our questions we should find the answer:

How many respondents like watching all the three movies?

Find the number of respondents who like watching only one of the three movies.
Find the number of respondents who like watching at least two of the given movies.

Let’s represent the data above in a more digestible way using the Venn diagram formula elements:

n(C) = percentage of respondents who like watchingChinese movies = 52%

n(F) = percentage of respondents who like watching French movies = 45%

n(R)= percentage of respondents who like watching Russian = 60%

= 25%; = 28%; = 30%

Since 6% like watching none of the given genres so, n (C ∪ F ∪ R) = 94%.

Now, we are going to apply the Venn diagram formula for 3 circles.

Solving this simple math equation, lead us to:

= 20%

It is a great time to make our Venn diagram related to the above situation (problem):

From the Venn diagram example, we can answer our questions with ease.

The number of respondents who like watching all the three movies = 20% of 1000 = 200.

THE PROBABILITY OF A RANDOMLY PICKED RESPONDENT TO LIKE WATCHING ALL THE THREE MOVIES IS 0.2

Number of respondents who like watching only one of the three movies = (17% + 12% + 22%) of 1000 = 510

The probability of a randomly picked respondent to like watching only one of the three movies is 0.51

The number of respondents who like watching at least two of the given movies = (number of respondents
who like watching only two of the movies) +(number of respondents who like watching all the
three movies) = (10 + 5 + 8 + 20)% i.e. 43% of 1000 = 430.
Module 3 - Short Answer Questions
1. Depict AUB in a Venn diagram
2. When do you use Venn diagram to solve problems?
3. If n(A)=30, n(B)=45 and n(AUB)= 55, Find n(A ∩ B)
4. Depict the events A and B, in case if both are mutually independent.
5. If n(A)=30, n(B)=45 and n(A ∩ B) = 10, find n(AUB)

Module 3 - Long Answer Questions

1. In a hostel, 200 students are randomly selected. 140 like Indian food, 120 like Chinese food and
80 like both.
1. how many students like only Indian food?
2. how many students like only Chinese food?
3. How many students like neither Indian nor Chinese food?
4. How many students like only one of Indian or Chinese food?
2. At the Department of Management Studies, CEG, there are 400 students, 270 are Specialised in
Systems, 300 are specialised in HR, and 50 are specialised in Analytics. All those specialized in
Systems are specialized in HR also. 20 specialize in Systems and Analytics and 35 specialize in
HR and Analytics. Using a Venn diagram, calculate the probability that a student selected at
random will specialize in
1. HR, but not Analytics or Systems.
2. HR but not Analytics
3. HR or Analytics but not Systems.
4. HR or Analytics
5. Only HR
6. Only Analytics
Module 4 - Conditional Probability
Module 4 - Lesson

What is Conditional Probability?

What is Conditional Probability?

Conditional Probability is a measure of the probability of an event given that another event has already
occurred. If the event of interest is A and the event B is known or assumed to have occurred, “the
conditional probability of A given B”, is usually written as P(A|B).

If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A given B is defined as

P(A/B) = P(A∩B)/P(B), when P(B)>0.

If P(B)=0, then the conditional probability is undefined. When the event B never occurs, it is
meaningless to talk about the occurrence of event A provided the event B has already occurred.

Note:

1. If B is a subset of A, then when B happens, it means that A also happens, hence

P(A/B) = 1

2. If the events A and B are independent, then P(A∩B)=P(A) * P(B)

Hence, P(A/B) = P(A)

3. P(A'/B) = 1-P(A/B)

4. P(A/B) is different from P(B/A)

What is the probability that two cards drawn at random from a pack of cards will both be Kings?

Can we use the formula for the probability of two independent events,

Probability of a King drawn = 4/52

Hence, probability of two kings = 4/52 x 4/52 = 1/169.

This is incorrect, because the two events are not independent. If the first card drawn is a King, then the
probability that the second card is also a King is less because there would only be three Kings left in
the pack.

Once the first card chosen is a King, the probability that the second card chosen is also a King is
conditional probability. We need to find the probability of the King in the second draw provided we
have already drawn a king in the first draw. Symbolically,

P(King on second draw | a King on the first draw)

Hence, the probability of drawing two kings is 4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221

P(King on second draw | a King on the first draw)

=(1/222)/4/52) = 3/51

1. In a card game, suppose a player needs to draw two cards of the same suit in order to win. Of
the 52 cards, there are 13 cards in each suit. Suppose first the player draws a heart. Now the
player wishes to draw a second heart. Since one heart has already been chosen, there are now
12 hearts remaining in a deck of 51 cards. So the conditional probability P(Draw second
heart|First card a heart) = 12/51.
2. A dice is rolled.

1. Find the probability that the number rolled is a six, given that it is even.
2. Find the probability that the number rolled is even, given that it is a six.

1. 1/3
2. 1

P(Even/Six) = P(Even and Six)/P(Six)

Even nos{2,4,6}

Even and Six {2,4,6} ∩ 6 = 6

P(Even) = 3/6

P(six) = 1/6

P(Even and Six)= 1/6

P(Even/Six) = P(Even and Six)/P(Six)

=(1/6)/(1/6) = 1

We can use the formula for conditional probability in many ways,

For example, if you know P(A/B) and P(B) we can calculate P(A∩B)

Example,

Suppose an individual applying to an Ivy college determines that he has an 80% chance of being
accepted, and he knows that dormitory housing will only be provided for 60% of all of the accepted
students. The chance of the student being accepted and receiving dormitory housing is defined by
P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing) = P(Dormitory Housing | Accepted)P(Accepted) = (0.60)*(0.80) =
0.48.
Take a challenge

In a factory there are 100 units of iron bearings, 8 of which are defective. We pick three units from
the 100 units at random, What is the probability that none of them are defective?

Let Ai be the event of choosing ith unit which is not defective.

A1 is the event of choosing 1st unit which is not defective

A2 is the event of choosing 2nd unit which is not defective

A3 is the event of choosing 3rd unit which is not defective

we have to calculate

P(A1∩A2∩A3)

In total there are 92 good units and 8 defective units.

Probability of choosing first non defective units is, P(A1)=92/100

The second item will be chosen from 91 good units

P(A2/A1) = 91/99

The third item will be chosen from 90 good units

P(A3/A2, A1) = 90/98

Hence,

P(A1∩A2∩A3) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) P(A3/A2, A1) = 92/100* 91/99 *90/98

=0.7766

Problems

1, A survey was undertaken to understand the marriage age pattern during their first marriage in India
by a sociologist. Out of the 960 individuals, there were 592 women. Of the 592 women, 183 had been
married in their teens, 106 had been married in their twenties, 224 had been married in their thirties
and the remaining in their forties. Among men, 98 had been married in their teens, 159 in their
twenties, 60 in their thirties and the remaining in their forties. Suppose a person is selected at random.

1. Find the probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage.
2. Find the probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage, given that the
person is male

Solutions:

When encountering problems like this, it is always advised to convert the given data in a table format.

First Marriage
Teens Twenties Thirties Forties Total
Women 183 106 224 79 592
Men 98 159 60 51 368
Total 281 265 284 130 960
1. The probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage

= 281/960= 0.2927

2. The probability that the individual selected was a teenager at first marriage, given that the person is
male

P(Teenager/Male) = P(Teenager and Male) / P(Male) = 98/368 = 0.2663

We need to consider only the male data set.

2. Suppose that in an adult population the proportion of people who are both obese and diabetic
is 0.09; the proportion of people who are not obese, but suffer diabetic is 0.11; the proportion of people
who are obese but do not suffer diabetic is 0.02; and the proportion of people who are neither obese
nor suffer diabetic is 0.78. An adult is randomly selected from this population.

1. Find the probability that the person selected suffers diabetes given that he is obese.

2. Find the probability that the selected person suffers diabetic given that he is not obese.

3. Compare the two probabilities just found to give an answer to the question as to whether obese
people tend to suffer from diabetes.

Let D denote the event “the person selected suffers diabetic.” Let O denote the event “the person
selected is obese.” The probability information given in the problem is put in a table.

O∩D Oc∩D O∩DC Oc∩ DC Total

0.09 0.11 0.02 0.78 1
Note that the given values are in proportions and not absolute values.

1. The probability that the person selected suffers diabetes given that he is obese is written as,

P(D/O)= P(D∩O)/P(O)

It is a little difficult to calculate P(O) from the table unless you know the formula, rather We can use a
Venn diagram to show this data and make calculations easy.

In the Venn diagram,

P(O)= 0.09 + 0.02 = 0.11

P(D/O)= P(D∩O)/P(O)
= 0.0.9/0.11 = 0.8182

By formula,

P(D|O)=P(D∩O)/P(O)=0.09/0.11=0.818

2. The probability that the selected person suffers diabetic given that he is not obese is written as

P(D/Oc) = P(D ∩ Oc)/P(Oc)

= 0.11/1-0.11

= 0.11/ 0.89

= 0.1234.

3. P(DO)=0.8182P(H|O)=0.8182 is over six times as large as P(D|Oc)=0.1234

P(D|Oc)=0.1234, which indicates a much higher rate of diabetic among people who are obese than
among people who are not obese.

Problem: 3

Given P(A) = 3/8, P(B) = 5/8, P(AUB) = ¾.

Find P(A/B), P(B/A). Check whether A and B are independent?

Answer:

Given P(A) = 3/8

P(B) = 5/8

P(AUB) = ¾.

P(A/B) = P(A B)/P(B)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) +P(B) – P(A B)

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B) – P(A ∪ B)

= 3/8+5/8-3/4 = ¼

P(A/B) = P(A B)/P(B)

= ¼ / 5/8 = 2/5

P(B/A) = = P(A B)/P(A)

= ¼ / 3/8 = 2/3

Note that P(A/B) and P(B/A) are different.

P(A) P(B) = 3/8 * 5/8 = 15/64

P(A B) = 5/8

Hence, P(A B) is not equal to P(A) P(B)

Hence, the events A and B are not independent.

Module 4 - Short Answer Questions

1. Your neighbor has 2 children. You learn that he has a son, Shiva. What is the probability that Shiva’s
sibling is a brother?

2. Your neighbor has 2 children. You learn that he has a son, Shiva. What is the probability that Shiva’s
sibling is a sister?

3. Your neighbor has 2 children. You learn that he has a daughter Shivani. What is the probability that
Shivani’s sibling is a sister?

4. What is conditional Probability?

5. Give an example for conditional probability

Module 4 - Long Answer Questions

1. In Chennai 44% of the houses have a car parking and 35% of the houses have a car parking and a
garden. What is the probability that a house has a garden given that it has a car parking?

2. Is P(A/B)= P(B/A). Prove that with an example. Assume all necessary details.

3. If P(A)= 5/14, P( B)=4/14, P(AUB)= 5/14, Are A and B independent? Explain in detail.