How to write a hypothesis in 6 steps

1 Ask a question

Curiosity has inspired some of history’s greatest scientific achievements, so a

good place to start is to ask yourself questions about the world around you.
Why are things the way they are? What causes the factors you see around
you? If you can, choose a research topic that you’re interested in so your
curiosity comes naturally. 

2 Conduct preliminary research

Next, collect some background information on your topic. How much

background information you need depends on what you’re attempting. It could
require reading several books, or it could be as simple as performing a web
search for a quick answer. You don’t necessarily have to prove or disprove
your hypothesis at this stage; rather, collect only what you need to prove or
disprove it yourself. 

3 Define your variables

Once you have an idea of what your hypothesis will be, select which variables
are independent and which are dependent. Remember that independent
variables can only be factors that you have absolute control over, so consider
the limits of your experiment before finalizing your hypothesis. 
4 Phrase it as an if-then statement

When writing a hypothesis, it helps to phrase it using an if-then format, such

as, “If I water a plant every day, then it will grow better.” This format can get
tricky when dealing with multiple variables, but in general, it’s a reliable
method for expressing the cause-and-effect relationship you’re testing. 

5  Collect data to support your hypothesis

A hypothesis is merely a means to an end. The priority of any scientific

research is the conclusion. Once you have your hypothesis laid out and your
variables chosen, you can then begin your experiments. Ideally, you’ll collect
data to support your hypothesis, but don’t worry if your research ends up
proving it wrong—that’s all part of the scientific method. 

6 Write with confidence

Last, you’ll want to record your findings in a research paper for others to see.
This requires a bit of writing know-how, quite a different skill set than
conducting experiments. 

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2.2.1 Develop a hypothesis
Before you formulate your hypothesis, read up on the topic of interest. This should
provide you with sufficient information to narrow down your research question. Once
you find your question you need to develop a hypothesis, which contains a statement
of your expectations regarding your research question’s results. You propose to
prove your hypothesis with your research by testing the relationship between two
variables of interest. Thus, a hypothesis should be testable with the data at hand.
There are two types of hypotheses: alternative or null. Null states that there is no
effect. Alternative states that there is an effect.

There is an alternative view on this that suggests one should not look at the literature
too early on in the idea-generating process to not be influenced and shaped by
someone else’s ideas (Varian 2016). According to this view you can spend some time
(i.e. a few weeks) trying to develop your own original idea. Even if you end up with an
idea that has already been pursued by someone else, this will still provide you with
good practice in developing publishable ideas. After you have developed an idea and
made sure that it was not yet investigated in the literature, you can start conducting a
systematic literature review. By doing this, you can find some other interesting
insights from the work of others that you can synthesize in your own work to produce
something novel and original.

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Developing a hypothesis (with example)
Step 1. Ask a question
Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to answer. The
question should be focused, specific, and researchable within the constraints of your
project.

Example: Research questionDo students who attend more lectures get better exam results?

Step 2. Do some preliminary research

Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already known about the
topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help you form educated assumptions
about what your research will find.

At this stage, you might construct a conceptual framework to ensure that you’re
embarking on a relevant topic. This can also help you identify which variables you will
study and what you think the relationships are between them. Sometimes, you’ll have
to operationalize more complex constructs.

Step 3. Formulate your hypothesis

Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your initial answer to
the question in a clear, concise sentence.

Example: Formulating your hypothesisAttending more lectures leads to better exam results.

4. Refine your hypothesis

You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There are various ways
of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use should have clear definitions, and
the hypothesis should contain:

 The relevant variables

 The specific group being studied
 The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways

To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if…then form. The first part
of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the
dependent variable.

If a first-year student starts attending more lectures, then their exam scores will improve.

In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in terms

of correlations or effects, where you directly state the predicted relationship between
variables.
The number of lectures attended by first-year students has a positive effect on their exam scores.

If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what difference you expect to
find between them.

First-year students who attended most lectures will have better exam scores than those who attended
few lectures.

6. Write a null hypothesis

If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing, you will also have to write a null
hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the default position that there is no association
between the variables. The null hypothesis is written as H 0, while the alternative
hypothesis is H1 or Ha.

 H0: The number of lectures attended by first-year students has no effect on their final exam
scores.
 H1: The number of lectures attended by first-year students has a positive effect on their final
exam scores.

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Hypothesis testing
When interpreting research findings, researchers need to assess whether these findings
may have occurred by chance. Hypothesis testing is a systematic procedure for deciding
whether the results of a research study support a particular theory which applies to a
population.
Hypothesis testing uses sample data to evaluate a hypothesis about a population. A
hypothesis test assesses how unusual the result is, whether it is reasonable chance
variation or whether the result is too extreme to be considered chance variation.

Null and research hypotheses

To carry out statistical hypothesis testing, research and null hypothesis are employed:

 Research hypothesis: this is the hypothesis that you propose, also known as the
alternative hypothesis HA. For example:

HA: There is a relationship between intelligence and academic results.

HA: First year university students obtain higher grades after an intensive Statistics course.
HA; Males and females differ in their levels of stress.
 

 The null hypothesis (Ho) is the opposite of the research hypothesis and expresses that
there is no relationship between variables, or no differences between groups; for
example:

 
Ho: There is no relationship between intelligence and academic results.
Ho:  First year university students do not obtain higher grades after an intensive Statistics
course.
Ho: Males and females will not differ in their levels of stress.
The purpose of hypothesis testing is to test whether the null hypothesis (there is no
difference, no effect) can be rejected or approved. If the null hypothesis is rejected, then
the research hypothesis can be accepted. If the null hypothesis is accepted, then the
research hypothesis is rejected.
In hypothesis testing, a value is set to assess whether the null hypothesis is accepted or
rejected and whether the result is statistically significant:

o A critical value is the score the sample would need to decide against the null hypothesis.
o A probability value is used to assess the significance of the statistical test. If the null
hypothesis is rejected, then the alternative to the null hypothesis is accepted.

The hypothesis testing process

The hypothesis testing process can be divided into five steps:

1. Restate the research question as research hypothesis and a null hypothesis about the
populations.
2. Determine the characteristics of the comparison distribution.
3. Determine the cut off sample score on the comparison distribution at which the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
4. Determine your sample’s score on the comparison distribution.
5. Decide whether to reject the null hypothesis.

 
This example illustrates how these five steps can be applied to text a hypothesis:

o Let’s say that you conduct an experiment to investigate whether students’ ability to
memorise words improves after they have consumed caffeine.
o The experiment involves two groups of students: the first group consumes caffeine; the
second group drinks water.
o Both groups complete a memory test.
o A randomly selected individual in the experimental condition (i.e. the group that
consumes caffeine) has a score of 27 on the memory test. The scores of people in general
on this memory measure are normally distributed with a mean of 19 and a standard
deviation of 4.
o The researcher predicts an effect (differences in memory for these groups) but does not
predict a particular direction of effect (i.e. which group will have higher scores on the
memory test). Using the 5% significance level, what should you conclude?
Step 1: There are two populations of interest.
Population 1: People who go through the experimental procedure (drink coffee).
Population 2: People who do not go through the experimental procedure (drink
water).

o Research hypothesis: Population 1 will score differently from Population 2.

o Null hypothesis: There will be no difference between the two populations.

 
Step 2: We know that the characteristics of the comparison distribution (student
population) are:
Population M = 19, Population SD= 4, normally distributed. These are the mean
and standard deviation of the distribution of scores on the memory test for the
general student population.
 
Step 3: For a two-tailed test (the direction of the effect is not specified) at the 5% level
(25% at each tail), the cut off sample scores are +1.96 and -1.99.
 
Step 4: Your sample score of 27 needs to be converted into a Z value. To calculate Z =
(27-19)/4= 2 (check the Converting into Z scores section if you need to review how to do
this process)
 
Step 5: A ‘Z’ score of 2 is more extreme than the cut off Z of +1.96 (see figure above).
The result is significant and, thus, the null hypothesis is rejected.

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%20systematic,a%20hypothesis%20about%20a%20population.