Monthly Communique: Report As On February 28, 2023
Monthly Communique: Report As On February 28, 2023
Equity markets drifted lower in Feb with the Nifty and the Sensex losing 2%
and 1% respectively. Breadth stayed weak with the NSE 100 Index
shedding 3%, and Nifty Mid Cap 150 and Nifty Small Cap 250 indexes losing
1.6% and 3.6% respectively. While there was an initial boost to sentiment
from the Union Budget which prioritized capital expenditure growth, the
global narrative around sticky inflation and hence higher for longer
interest rates turned sentiment weak again. Sectorally, the texture of
markets has been broadly defensive in 2023 so far with Tech, FMCG,
Capital Goods and Auto amongst the leaders while Power, Oil & Gas,
Metals, Real Estate and Banks are amongst the laggards.
10
2.6
1.6
1.0
0.5
% YTD change
-3.1
-10
-4.4
-4.6
-4.8
-5.5
-5.7
-6.2
-6.2
-6.5
-6.7
-6.7
-8.6
-9.0
-10.1
-17.1
-24.8
-30
CONSUMER…
MID CAP
PSU
POWER
LARGE CAP
BSE 500
OIL & GAS
HEALTHCARE
BSE 100
FMCG
METALS
BANKEX
TELECOM
REAL ESTATE
SENSEX
CAP GOODS
IT
AUTO
SMALL CAP
NIFTY
Elevated valuations, tightening liquidity and its potential fallout on growth have been headwinds for equities
for the past many months even as longer-term tailwinds of reviving corporate profitability and potential
revival in manufacturing and investment cycle have provided a floor to the market. We expect the tug of war
to continue till there is a decisive pullback on bond yields that in turn opens space on equity valuations.
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jul-05
Jul-08
Jul-11
Jul-20
Oct-04
Oct-07
Oct-10
Apr-12
Jul-14
Oct-22
Oct-13
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-19
Apr-06
Apr-09
Apr-15
Apr-18
Apr-21
Jan-19
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jan-16
Jan-22
-5%
Source: Bloomberg, SBIFM Research. Note: Approximated by adding up US, Eurozone and China money supply measures.
MONTHLY COMMUNIQUE
REPORT AS ON FEBRUARY 28, 2023
IVY
portfolio management services
Tightening in global policy has been accompanied by a significant deceleration in global money supply growth.
This in our view should lead to a slowdown in economic activity. Recent earnings prints have continued to
moderate corroborating a growth slowdown. We expect this trend to continue largely owing to global
headwinds. Beyond the near term however, there is room to be optimistic as the profits to GDP cycle in India
has decisively turned higher after the secular decline of the past decade and more.
Near term earnings continue to moderate even as longer-term profit cycle looks encouraging
8.0
7.1
6.8
120
101
7.0
5.6
5.5
100 LTA: 3.4%
5.3
5.2
5.1
6.0
4.9
81
4.5
80 5.0
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.2
4.0
3.0
60
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.1
3.0
2.1
2.0
36
2.0
1.8
1.8
40 1.5
1.5
1.5
1.2
23
22
2.0
25
21
17
15
14
10
20
15
1.0
9
11
7
7
7
5
5
9
1
0.0
3
0
-1
FY92
FY14
FY94
FY16
FY96
FY18
FY22
FY98
FY20
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
0
-2
-20
-3
-3
-6
-6
-7
-12
-32
-21
-40
Corporate Profit (% GDP)
Jun-21
Mar-22
Jun-15
Jun-18
Mar-16
Dec-16
Mar-19
Dec-19
Dec-22
Sep-14
Sep-17
Sep-20
While slow growth should be headwind for risk assets, it may also help alleviate the inflation challenge. We
think bonds should do better than equities in such an environment. Asset diversification should therefore
help. Within the equity portfolio, being diversified across market capitalizations, across styles such as value
and quality, as well as from a sectoral standpoint should work better in the interim versus the largely
pro-cyclical themes that have worked well over the past two years.
Even as India’s economic growth slows down in FY24, we expect growth to become more balanced. Mass
consumption has lagged in the recovery thus far owing largely to loss in real incomes because of high
inflation. As inflation moderates, expect this part of the economy to recover even as exports driven sectors
face headwinds. We continue to think of 2023 as a year of adjustment, where growth slows down but at the
same time becomes more balanced setting stage for a more sustainable recovery on the other side.
Warm Regards
Portfolio Positioning
(1) Analysis of business model (2) Impact of Macro-economic variables on the business model (3) Company
analysis based on factors including Porter’s Five Factors (4) Sell-side research interaction
(1) Geo-Politics and its impact on business (2) Channel checks (3) Management Meetings
(4) Work place / Plant visits
Derive Quality Score with input of ROE, ROIC, Earnings Risk and Debt repayment capabilities
(1) Financial analysis of last 5 years (2) Building investment thesis (3) Valuation model
(4) Target price (5) Strategic fit with other stocks in the portfolio
(1) Market cap bucket fit (2) Stock weight allocation based on degree of conviction (3) Entry and
exit points (4) Dissemination of new information (5) Ongoing monitoring
The strategy and the composition mentioned above, of the portfolio is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document. The
parameters stated above are only for illustration purpose and may or may not be exhaustive. Please refer to the disclosure document for details.
SBI ESG PORTFOLIO
REPORT AS ON FEBRUARY 28, 2023
IVY
portfolio management services
Investment Objective Investment objective of this portfolio will be to generate long-term capital growth through
investment in well-researched stocks.
Portfolio Attributes Investing in companies meeting positive standards of Environmental, Social, Governance responsibility.
Will focus on niche businesses having conducive universe for multi-fold growth with longevity.
Invest in companies which are disproportionately high beneficiaries of Economic Growth
Financials 17.10
32
Industrials 9.06 28
Materials 7.69
Consumer
4.33
Staples
Communication
2.78
Services
Information
Technology
0.14 Large Cap
Energy 27 Mid Cap
0.02
Small Cap
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 * Cash & Equivalent is 14%
*Returns mentioned are the returns of the stock in the last 1 year or since the time the stock has been included in the portfolio in case the stock has not completed 1 year.
SBI ESG PORTFOLIO
REPORT AS ON FEBRUARY 28, 2023
IVY
portfolio management services
DISCLAIMER - SBI ESG Portfolio (formerly known as SBI Growth With Values Portfolio) Inception Date : 08/07/2016
Returns presented are time-weighted returns. Time weighted - Daily valuation method is used for rate of return calculation. Periodic returns are
geometrically linked. Total return includes realized and unrealized gains and income. Accrual accounting is used for the calculations. Dividend
is accrued on ex-date and reinvested in the portfolio. Trades are booked on trade date. Net returns are calculated after deducting actual
management fees and all other expenses. Benchmark returns are presented gross of non-reclaimable withholding taxes.
If you wish to invest, please contact your financial advisor or to invest Direct please contact us on [email protected]
Portfolio Manager:
SBI Funds Management Limited
(A Joint Venture between SBI & AMUNDI), (CIN: U65990MH1992PLC065289)
9th Floor, Crescenzo, C-38 & 39, G Block, Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai - 400 051