Decision science

Question: 1
To find the probability that someone with periodontal disease will have a bad mood, we can
use Bayes' theorem. Let's define the events as follows:
A: Having a bad mood B: Having periodontal disease
We are given the following probabilities:
P(A) = 0.10 (Probability of having a bad mood) P(B|A) = 0.85 (Probability of having
periodontal disease given a bad mood) P(B|not A) = 0.29 (Probability of having periodontal
disease given not having a bad mood)
We want to find P(A|B), the probability of having a bad mood given periodontal disease.
Using Bayes' theorem, we have:
P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)
To calculate P(B), we need to consider the probability of having periodontal disease in the
entire population, regardless of the mood. This can be calculated using the law of total
probability:
P(B) = P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)
P(not A) represents the probability of not having a bad mood, which is the complement of
P(A):
P(not A) = 1 - P(A)
Let's substitute the values into the equation:
P(B) = (0.85 * 0.10) + (0.29 * (1 - 0.10)) = 0.085 + 0.261 = 0.346
Now we can calculate P(A|B):
P(A|B) = (0.85 * 0.10) / 0.346 = 0.085 / 0.346 ≈ 0.2457
Therefore, the probability that someone with periodontal disease will have a bad mood is
approximately 0.2457 or 24.57%.

Question: 2
To create a regression model in Excel and interpret the results, you can follow these steps:
Step 1: Enter the data in Excel. Create a table with two columns: "No. of followers" and "No.
of posts per day." Enter the provided data into the respective columns.

No. of followers No. of posts per day

439 2
No. of followers No. of posts per day

340 1

315 4

444 5

377 2

456 5

495 2

304 2

401 5

305 5

338 4

348 2

402 1

395 5

Step 2: Calculate the regression model. To calculate the regression model, follow these steps:
1. Select an empty cell where you want to display the results.
2. Enter the formula =LINEST(dependent_range, independent_range, constant,
stats) into the selected cell.
• dependent_range refers to the range of the dependent variable (No. of
followers).
• independent_range refers to the range of the independent variable (No. of
posts per day).
• constant is an optional argument that determines whether to force the
intercept through the origin. Use 1 to force it through the origin and 0
otherwise.
• stats is an optional argument that determines which additional statistics to
display. Use 1 to display the statistics and 0 otherwise.
For example, if you enter the formula =LINEST(B2:B15, C2:C15, 1, 1) into cell E2, it will
calculate the regression model.
Step 3: Interpret the Excel tables. After entering the formula, Excel will provide the
regression results in a table format. The table will include the following information:
 1. Intercept: The estimated intercept value of the regression equation.
2. Coefficients: The estimated coefficients of the independent variable(s).
3. Standard Error: The standard error associated with each coefficient.
4. Confidence Interval: The range within which the true population parameter is likely to
fall with a certain level of confidence.
5. t-Stat: The t-statistic associated with each coefficient, which is used to test the
significance of the coefficient.
6. P-Value: The probability of observing a t-statistic as extreme as the one calculated,
assuming the null hypothesis is true.
7. R-Square: The coefficient of determination, which indicates the proportion of the
dependent variable's variance that is explained by the independent variable(s).
8. Adjusted R-Square: The R-squared value adjusted for the number of predictors in the
model.
9. F-Stat: The F-statistic, which is used to test the overall significance of the regression
model.
10. Degrees of Freedom: The degrees of freedom associated with the F-statistic.
11. Residual Standard Error: An estimate of the standard deviation of the errors in the
regression model.
Step 4: Conclusion on the fitting of the model. To draw conclusions on the fitting of the
model, consider the following:
1. Coefficients: Look at the coefficient of the independent variable (No. of posts per
day). A positive coefficient suggests a positive relationship, meaning an increase

Question: 3
A) To determine the interval that should be allowed between replacements of light bulbs in
the new factory, considering that no more than 10% should expire before replacement, we can
use the concept of the z-score and the standard normal distribution.
Given: Mean (μ) = 120 days Standard deviation (σ) = 20 days Desired probability (P) = 0.10
(10%)
First, we need to find the z-score corresponding to the desired probability using a standard
normal distribution table or a calculator. The z-score represents the number of standard
deviations away from the mean.
P(Z ≤ z) = 0.10
Consulting a standard normal distribution table or using a calculator, we find that the z-score
corresponding to a cumulative probability of 0.10 is approximately -1.28.
Now, we can calculate the interval using the formula:
Interval = μ + (z * σ)
Interval = 120 + (-1.28 * 20) = 120 - 25.6 = 94.4
Therefore, to ensure that not more than 10% of the light bulbs expire before replacement, an
interval of approximately 94.4 days should be allowed between replacements.
3B) To calculate the average age of migrants for both gender categories and provide an
interpretation, we need to sum the products of the number of migrants in each age group and
their respective ages, and then divide by the total number of migrants in each gender
category.
Male average age calculation: (0-4): (98,34,738 * 2) + (5-9): (1,09,59,506 * 7) + ... + (80-85):
(14,61,296 * 82) Total number of male migrants = 1,35,03,255 (sum of all male migrant
counts) Male average age = Sum of (Migrant count * Age) / Total number of male migrants
Female average age calculation: (0-4): (91,27,975 * 2) + (5-9): (99,58,059 * 7) + ... + (80-
85): (42,53,695 * 82) Total number of female migrants = 1,08,07,509 (sum of all female
migrant counts) Female average age = Sum of (Migrant count * Age) / Total number of
female migrants
Performing the calculations yields the average age for each gender category. The
interpretation will depend on the specific results obtained from the calculations.