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India as Emerging Power notes

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INDIA AS EMERGING POWER

Since the late fifteenth century, the West has maintained a global hegemony the likes of which
the world has never seen before. And following the end of the Cold War, the United States of
America has remained the world's major global superpower, a nation with enough military and
cultural might to dominate and influence international affairs. However, with the rise of China
and India and the resurgence of an expansionist Russia, the world is undergoing a shift as
momentous as any seen in the last 500 years. Countries like the ones mentioned above are
classified as emerging superpowers: countries that, if they maintain their current trajectory,
have the potential to become superpowers in the near future. In this context, several
commentators suggest that India has the potential to become a global superpower, a state with
an extensive ability to exert influence or to project power in much of the world. In the following
are factors that contribute to a nation acquiring such clout, including economic, political,
demographic, military, and cultural factors.

Economic factors

In 2011, under the Manmohan Singh government, India was recognized as the third largest
economy according to World Bank data. This was a significant accomplishment and a result of
Manmohan Singh's policies. In 1991, India was ranked 17th in terms of its economy size, but
Manmohan Singh's policies helped spur rapid growth that continued despite the global financial
crisis. However, the momentum slowed down due to several civil society movements, such as
Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement, that impacted the congress government between
2011 and 2012. In 2015, Modi government's demonetization struck a lethal blow to the Indian
economy. Despite this, the country's large human and natural resources and educated middle
class demographic helped it recover. In 2019, India was the 5th largest economy. The COVID-
19 Pandemic dealt another blow to the Indian economy but it was able to bounce back, unlike
many western European countries. In 2020 India was the 6th largest economy. In 2022, India
overtook the United Kingdom as the world's fifth largest economy.
India also experienced a period of rapid growth after 1991 due to the efforts of Narasimha Rao
and Manmohan Singh to liberalize the economy. However, this growth was later slowed by
instability at the centre. In January 2015, India adopted a new way of calculating the GDP,

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suddenly appearing as the fastest-growing major economy in the world, overtaking China.
India, growing at 9% per year, is also the world's second largest producer of food next to China.
Food processing accounts for US$69.4 billion as gross income. When it comes to iron and steel
industry, India surpassed Japan as the second largest steel producer in January 2019.
India also has a large and expanding Information Technology industry which serves customers
throughout the world. Some have begun to describe India as a technology superpower. The IT
industry provides software development services and technical consultancy throughout the
world and also enables a host of global services located in India at highly competitive rates. In
terms of science and technology, an example of India's scientific endeavours is the ISRO, the
third National Space Agency to be founded in the world, following those of the Soviet Union
and the United States. It enabled India to become the third Asian nation to launch a satellite
into orbit from an indigenously developed rocket after China and Japan, when the Rohini RS-
1 lifted off in 1979. On 24 September 2014, India became the fourth nation to have a satellite
orbiting Mars. India is the first Asian nation to achieve this and the first in the world to do so
at the first attempt. India and the United States have increased mutual co-operation in space-
travel related technologies.
In terms of energy security, India is well-placed to transition from fossil fuels to other energy
generation technologies, in line with global trends away from finite resources and harmful
emissions due to its high solar insolation and density of consumers. India is also constructing
several power generation plants using nuclear power or hydroelectric-power. It has made
civilian nuclear energy deals with the US and EU. As the site of 25% of the world's thorium
reserves, India would be well-placed to use this alternative to uranium for nuclear power
generation. India also has multiple world class companies working in nuclear technology such
as BHEL, Larsen & Toubro, Walchandnagar Industries and Gammon India.
India’s massive Railway Network also contributes to its status. Indian Railways is the world’s
fourth largest railway network after those of the United States, Russia, and China. It is always
called lifeline of the country as it supports the transportation of the goods and commodities
across the country. The railway sector in India aims to contribute about 1.5% to the country's
GDP by building infrastructure to support 45% of the modal freight share of the economy. With
a workforce of 13 lakh people, the IR is also one of the country’s largest employers.
India continues to attract tourists with the attractions of its history, arts, music, culture and
spiritual traditions. Many travellers find the cultural diversity an enriching experience, despite
hassles, inefficiency, pollution, and overcrowding. Tourism contributes 6% of India's GDP and
employs 40 million people, making it an important factor in India's economic growth. More

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than 8 million foreign tourists arrived in the year 2015 against 7.68 million in 2014, recording
a growth of 4.4 percent over 2014.
Geo-politically speaking, India lies in the South Asian portion of the Indian Ocean and
therefore is placed advantageously for transoceanic commerce with and between continents.

Demographic factors
India recently surpasses China as the world's largest population and has a positive Population
Growth Rate. About half of its population is under 25, which suggests that economic growth
should not be constrained in the next decades by contraction of the active workforce though
aging. Due to its high birth rate, India has a young population compared to more developed
nations. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which
may produce a demographic dividend. In the coming decades, while some of the powerful
nations will witness a decrease in workforce numbers, India is expected to have an increase. In
the words of Indian Scholar Rejaul Karim Laskar, "when greying population will be seen
inhibiting economic growth of major countries, India will be brimming with youthful energy".
Regionally, South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa
and the Middle East.
In terms of global diaspora, more than 32 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair
opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful— especially in the US and the
UK where they are the highest earning ethnic demographic.
The global importance of the English language may be in transition, but the large number of
non-native English speakers means that it cannot be discounted as an enabler in global trade.
India has the world's largest number of people able to understand and/or speak English. It
claims one of the largest workforces of engineers, doctors and other key professionals that use
English. It has the 2ndlargest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the United
States, with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million speakers, and is expected to have the
largest in the coming decades.

Political Factors
India is the world's largest democratic republic, four times bigger than the next largest (the
United States). It has so far been successful politically, especially considering its functionality
despite its difficult ethnic composition. The fact that India is a democracy has improved its
relations with other democratic nations and significantly improved its ties with the majority of
the nations in the developed world.

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India has been pressing for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (as
part of the G4 nations) but with a clause that it will not exercise its veto for the next 15 years.
It has received backing from the United States, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
However, China's stance on India's candidacy has been unclear.
In terms of bilateral relations, India has developed relationships with the world powers like the
United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, Russia, and the United States. It also developed
relationships with the African Union (particularly South Africa), the Arab World, Southeast
Asia, Israel and South American nations (particularly Brazil). To make the environment
favourable for economic growth, India is investing on its relations with China. It has
significantly boosted its image among Western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with
the United States in March 2006. It is also working for better relationships with Pakistan.
Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement and had good
relationships with Soviet Union and other parts of western world. It played regional roles in
South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation
War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and
Asian countries. India is an active member of the Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving
economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian mood to slowly
swing in favour of integration with the global economy. Currently, India's political moves are
being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is also being observed to slowly,
cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the uncharted role of becoming one of the two major
seats of political power in Asia, the other being at Beijing.

Military Factors
The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches:
the core Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains
the largest active-duty force in the world as of 2020, while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over
a million strong, is the second largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total
armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's third largest defence force.
The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a
crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It
also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Today, the Indian Army is
the world's largest army in total numbers of armed personnel.

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The Indian Air Force is also the fourth largest air force in the world. India recently inducted its
second indigenously manufactured combat aircraft. India is also developing the fifth-
generation stealth aircraft. The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy. It is considered to
have blue-water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier,
advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of
state-of-the-art technology that is indigenously manufactured.
India started the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) to be a self-reliant
nation in missile development. The IGMDP program includes five missiles like the Prithvi and
Agni of ballistic missiles, surface to air missiles Trishul and Akash and also the anti-tank Nag
missile. Prithvi and Agni missiles are inducted into the armed forces and form the basis of
Indian nuclear second-strike capability. India has possessed nuclear weapons since 1974, when
it did the Pokharan I nuclear tests, and the means to deliver them over long distances. However,
India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on grounds of security concerns
and condemns the NPT as discriminatory.
The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law
and order in the disputed Kashmir region. India has also participated in several United Nations
peace-keeping missions, currently being the largest contributor to UN peace keeping force and
is the second-largest contributor to the United Nations Democracy Fund behind the USA.

Cultural Factors
India has a long history of cultural dialogue with many regions of the world, especially within
Asia, where its cultural influence has spread through the philosophy of religions like Jainism,
Buddhism, Hinduism, Sikhism, etc. – particularly in East and Southeast Asia. Many religions
with origins outside the Indian subcontinent – Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Zoroastrianism,
Baháʼí Faith - have found followers in India. Indian culture has spread to foreign lands through
wandering traders, philosophers, and migration.
The Indian cinema or film industry, which produces more feature films than any other, plays a
major role in spreading Indian culture worldwide. Indian cinema transcended its boundaries
from the days of film Awara, a great hit in Russia. Bollywood films are seen in central and
west Asia. Indian films have also found audience in eastern societies. India's film industry is
now becoming increasingly popular in Western society, with Bollywood festivals occurring in
numerous cities, and Bollywood dance groups performing in New Year's Eve celebrations,
treatment which other non-English film industries generally do not receive.

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CHALLENGES TO EMERGING POWER STATUS

Despite all these positive factors, there are challenges to India’s rise to become an emerging
power. Internal constraints like poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, health care, transportation,
lack of infrastructure, insurgency, inflation etc, are known and have been discussed several
times. Admittedly, lacunae in these areas need to be strengthened significantly if India wants
to be on the road to big power. India must walk the way to become a manufacturing country.
Currently, the Indian economy is more reliant on the service sector. The Indian Service sector
contributed more than 55 percent of GVA (Gross Value Added) to the economy, whereas the
manufacturing sector contributed only 29 percent of GVA in 2019 – 2020. There is nothing
wrong with the development and growth of the service sector, but the contribution of the
manufacturing sector to the overall growth of the Indian economy must be augmented in the
near future. We must concentrate on setting up manufacturing industries in the near future.
This may save valuable foreign exchange and generate employment in the country. But
industrial growth must not be pursued at the cost of developing social sectors like health and
education. Budget allocation for social sector development must also be increased.
Among external constraints, challenges for Indian diplomacy to contain China and Pakistan in
the coming years remain at the forefront. Bringing back Nepal to a close fraternal circle is also
a task in hand. But containing China will be the greatest challenge. After the recent clashes
along the LAC in the Ladakh region, China would be hell-bent on blocking India’s road to the
big power. China will oppose, more vehemently, India’s quest for a permanent seat at the UN
Security Council; membership of the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) and India’s positions in
other international bodies, besides continuing with its belligerence along the borders. To
counter China, India needs to strengthen the idea of the Quad along with the U.S., Japan and
Australia, and bolster its international relations which are favourable at this point in time. India
must also boost its defence preparations with more allocation in defence budgets. Indian navy
must be one of the very best in the world with the capacity to safeguard the vast Indian Ocean
region, and the ability to deploy force and combat marine vessels quickly in important strategic
seafronts. Alongside making partnerships and alliances in global relations, India must be self-
reliant when defending national boundaries. Over the years, India had been successful in
containing Pakistan, but there is a huge asymmetry of power between China and Pakistan.
Therefore, China is a greater challenge; and this challenge is equally daunting in peacetime,
because the northern neighbour is prone to cross boundaries in peacetime.

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Source: Wikipedia, https://diplomatist.com/2020/08/27/india-as-an-emerging-global-power-

challenges-and-prospects/

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