Unit 6:

Network Models
Part 9
Subject: PMOR
Faculty: Prof. Y. M. Khan
Asst. Professor,
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, ICEEM,
Aurangabad
 PERT

 Programme Evaluation and Review Technique.

 The CPM system of networks omits the probabilistic

considerations and is based on a single time estimate of the
average time required to execute the activity

 The PERT system is based on three time estimates of the

performance time of an activity.
 The Three Time Estimates
 The Optimistic time estimate(to)
The shortest possible time required for the completion of an activity, if all
goes extremely well. No delays or setbacks.

 The Pessimistic time estimate (tp)

The maximum possible time the activity will take if every thing goes
bad(except earthquakes, floods, labor troubles)

 The Most likely time estimate (tm)

The time an activity will take if executed under normal conditions. It is the
modal value
Frequency Distribution Curve for PERT

 Though the curves is not fully

described by the mean (µ) &
standard deviation(σ), yet in
PERT the following relations are
approximated for mean (µ) &
standard deviation(σ).
 𝑡𝑝−𝑡𝑜 2
 Variance = V = (σ)2 =( )
6
𝒕𝒑−𝒕𝒐
 σ= ( )
𝟔
𝒕𝒐+𝟒𝒕𝒎+𝒕𝒑
µ =
𝟔
 Expected time or average time of an activity is taken equal to
mean.
𝒕𝒐+𝟒𝒕𝒎+𝒕𝒑
 te = µ =
𝟔
 Expected time is used as activity duration & the critical path is
obtained by the previously explained method.
 The variance or standard deviation is used to find the probability of
completing the whole project within a given time.
 The variance or standard deviation is used to find the probability of
completing the whole project within a given time.

 Standard Normal Variate(Z)

𝑻−𝑻𝒄𝒑
 Z= ( )
σ
 T= Given Probable time of completing project
 Tcp= Project Duration for critical path
 σ= Square root of sum of all variance of critical path
= ∑σ2𝒊𝒋
 The probability is then read from prob. Distribution table (C2 Table)
for the value of Z found from above equation
 Consider the following network. Three time estimates are
given along the arrows. Find critical path. Find probability
that the project will be completed in 20 days.

0 - 0 -0
2-2-8 4-6-8
1 2 5 6

3
Activity (σ)2 te
(i-j) to tm tp ((tp-to)/6)2 (to+4tm+tp)/6
1-2
2 2 8 1 3
2-3
1 1.5 11 2.8 3
2-4
0.5 2.5 7.5 1.36 3
3-4
0 0 0 0.0 0
3-5
1 2.5 7 1 3
3-6
1 2 3 0.11 2
4-5
6 7 8 0.11 7
4-6
3 4 11 1.78 5
5-6
4 6 8 0.44 6
 E=6 𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
Z= ( ) 𝑇=20 𝑇𝑐𝑝=19 σcp= ∑σ2𝒊𝒋
L=6 σcp
σcp1= 𝟏 + 𝟐. 𝟖 + 𝟎 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒 = 𝟐. 𝟎𝟖
4 σcp2= 𝟏 + 𝟏. 𝟑𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒 = 𝟏. 𝟕𝟎
E=0 E=3 E=19
L=0 L=3 L=19

te=3 te=0 E=13 te=6

1 2 (σ)2=0 L=13
5 6
(σ)2=1 (σ)2=0.44

Critical Path: 1-2-3-4-5-6

Critical Path: 1-2-4-5-6
E=6
3
L=6

σcp1 > σcp2 20−19

Z= ( ) Read P for Z= 0.48 from C2 table, we get,
Selecting σcp1 2.08
Z= 0.48
P= 0.6844 P= 68.44 %
 The time estimates(in weeks) for the activities of a PERT
network are given below
Activity 1. Draw the project network and identify all the paths
(i-j) to tm tp
through it.
1-2
1 1 7 2. Determine expected project length
1-3
1 4 7
3. Calculate standard deviation and variance of the
project length
1-4
2 2 8 4. What is the probability that the project will be
2-5 completed :
1 1 1
a) at least 4 weeks earlier than expected?
3-5 b) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time?
2 5 14
4-6 5. If the project due date is 19 weeks, what is the
2 5 8 probability of not meeting the due date?
5-6 6. Probability for completing project in 20 weeks
3 6 15
7. What should be the scheduled completion time for the
probability of completion to be 90%?
 1. Draw the project network and identify all the paths through it.
Activity Activity
(i-j)
to tm tp to tm tp
(i-j)
1-2
1 1 7 3-5
2 5 14
1-3
1 4 7
4-6
2 5 8
1-4
2 2 8
5-6
2-5 3 6 15
1 1 1

1-4-7 2 - 5 - 14 3 - 6 - 15
1 3 5 6
Path 1: 1 - 2 – 5 – 6
Path 2: 1 - 3 – 5 – 6
Path 3: 1 – 4 – 6
4
 2. Determine expected project length
Activity to tm tp (σ)2 te Activity to tm tp (σ)2 te
(i-j) (i-j)

1-2 1 1 7 1 2 3-5 2 5 14 4 6

1-3 1 4 7 1 4 4-6 2 5 8 1 5

1-4 2 2 8 1 3 5-6 3 6 15 4 7

2-5 1 1 1 0 1

2
Project Duration
Path 1: 1 - 2 – 5 – 6 = 2+1+7=10
1-4-7 2 - 5 - 14 3 - 6 - 15
Path 2: 1 - 3 – 5 – 6 = 4+6+7=17
1 te=4
3 5 te=7
6
Path 3: 1 – 4 – 6 = 3+5=8 te=6

Therefore, the expected project length= 17 weeks

4
3. Calculate standard deviation and variance of the
project length
 Variance=Vcp=(σ)2cp= 1+4+4=9

 Std. Deviation=σcp= σ2𝑐𝑝 = 9 = 3

1-4-7 2 - 5 - 14 3 - 6 - 15
1 3 5 σ2 =4
6
σ2 =1 σ2 =4

4
 4. What is the probability that the project will be completed :
a) at least 4 weeks earlier than expected?
b) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time?

a) At least 4 weeks earlier than expected

Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 17-4=13 weeks

Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
13−17
) Z= -1.33 P=1-0.9082
σcp 3

Since Z is negative Subtracting value of p obtained from C2 table for Z= 1.33 from 1

We get, Probability = 0.0918

So, the Probability of completing the project 4 weeks earlier is = 0.0918= 9.18%
 b) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time

Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks

T= scheduled time = 17+4=21 weeks

Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
21−17
) Z= 1.33 P=0.9082
σcp 3

So, the Probability of completing the project at most 4 weeks later is = 0.9082=
90.82%
 5) If the project due date is 19 weeks
Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 19 weeks

Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
19−17
) Z= 0.67 P=0.7486
σcp 3

So, the Probability of meeting the due date = 0.7486= 74.86%

 6)Probability for completing project in 20 weeks
Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 20 weeks

Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
20−17
) Z= 1 P=0.8413
σcp 3

So, the Probability of meeting the due date = 0.8413= 84.13%

7) scheduled completion time for the probability of completion to be 90%

P= 90%=0.9
Finding Z for P= 0.9=1.28
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝 𝑇−17
Z= ( ) 1.28= ( ) 𝑇 = 17 + 3.84 = 20.84 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠
σcp 3
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