BUS424 CaseAnalysis1
BUS424 CaseAnalysis1
In 2013, University ABC, with nearly 3,000 students and 180 classroom instructors, reached a
depressing milestone. That year, the student dropout rate hit its highest point ever at nine percent.
This meant that nearly one out of every ten students who entered the school as a freshman left
without graduating at all. In addition, only 55 percent of the students were able to graduate on
time, compared to the state average of 76.4 percent. The school board responded to these dismal
statistics by demanding that the Provost, Dr. Johnson, address this growing problem, or risk the
loss of funding – even threatening a possible shutdown. Dr. Johnson feared for the University’s
future, but he was at a loss. Students were habitually disengaged, and instructors had been
demotivated by frequently shifting incentives, the imposition of new approaches and increasingly
negative assessments.
Dr. Johnson met with school board members who suggested he put the vast and varied datasets
the school had already collected about its students’ behavior to use. In addition to the typical
performance, disciplinary and attendance records, the school had given students scannable ID
cards that registered when they were used to open the library doors, confirm attendance in class,
purchase snacks or lunches, and so forth. Even the school’s Wi-Fi network tracked students’
internet use and monitored their movements throughout the campus with an impressive degree of
accuracy, using their mobile phones as proxies. These measures produced large quantities of
data. The school board members suggested that developments in data science and machine
learning could be applied to this information in order to shed light on the causes of what
appeared to be an irreversible trend towards high dropout rates. Understanding what causes
students to drop out might suggest appropriate interventions and could inform the creation of
new incentive structures for instructors and students.
Dr. Johnson took these suggestions to heart and contracted a local data science company,
DATAVOLVED, which promised insights into business processes through novel approaches
using artificial intelligence. Together they formulated these specific goals:
1. To identify predictors of student disengagement as an indicator for dropping out, and to
apply machine learning tools to these predictors in order to flag at-risk students;
2. To equip instructors with fine-grained information to allocate resources and assist at-risk
students by suggesting specific interventions, such as talking to the student directly,
adjusting their workload and schedule, or meeting with the student’s counselor; and
3. To be transparent in the way the system is utilized.
Dr. Johnson and the school board agreed to provide DATAVOLVED with their existing
databases, spanning several years, and gave them access to new data as it was collected. Students
were not notified of this agreement, nor were they given the opportunity to opt out. Knowing
from previous experience how difficult it is to get students and administrators to come to a
consensus on any new initiative, and given the urgency of the situation, Dr. Johnson believed this
was for the best. Besides, he argued, this decision was supported by the school board and fell
within his general mandate to promote positive educational outcomes for all.