TUTORIAL QMT181/STA104

1. a) Give an example of a situation for the time series component below:

i) Cyclical variation
ii) Seasonal variation
(2 marks)
2. a) Explain the meaning of the following component in time series.
i) Cyclical variation. (1 mark)
ii) Seasonal variation. (1 mark)

3. a) Define and give one example for each of the following terms,
i) Seasonal variation (2 marks)
ii) Irregular variation (2 marks)

4. a) Determine whether the following events are trend, cyclical, seasonal or irregular component of time
series.
i) The increase of number of students in the library during examination period
ii) The decrease in the price of computers over the years as more people use them
iii) The high demand for engineers when the economy is doing well
iv) The increase in the price of rice due to the rice shortage

5. a) Determine the appropriate components of time series for the situation below.
i) Flood that hit Johor in 2006.
ii) Mega sale during the festive season.
iii) Revenue for Company X is low during the economic recession.

6. a) Determine the appropriate components of time series for the situation below.
i) The occurrence of traffic jams at Banda Hilir, Melaka, every school holidays due to high number of visitors
ii) The increase in sales of face-masks due to H1N1 outbreak
iii) The decrease in the death rate of babies during deliveries due to improvement to technology,
iv) The increase in the cost-of-living due to rising inflation

7. a) State the FOUR (4) components of time series. (2 marks)

8. a) The seasonal indices of four quarter for expenses at Giant Hypermarket are shown in the following table:
Quarter 1 2 3 4
Seasonal index x 100 90 y

If the expenses for the first quarter are 5% below the trend, find the value of x and y. (3 marks)

9. State whether each of the following statement is TRUE or FALSE.

i) A decline in the fertility rate among the Malaysian women over the last 40 years represents the trend
component of the time series.
ii) Seasonal fluctuation such as demand for school items at the beginning of school session is unpredictable.
iii) An irregular fluctuation is a movement that cannot be predicted as it will move drastically from the norm.
iv) A decrease in revenue experienced by most company during the economic recession is an example of
the cyclical component.

10. a) Fill in the blanks with the appropriate terms.

i) A series of data or measurements taken at successive intervals of time is called___________

ii) ________________represents a long term pattern movement which is quite consistent throughout the
sequence.
iii) The process of reducing the random fluctuation in time series data is known as ___________
FAHA 1
 TUTORIAL QMT181/STA104

11. The following table reports the number of television orders from Neo Electrical Appliances for January
2009 to December 2011.

YEAR TERM
1 (Jan-Apr) 2 (May-Aug) 3 (Sept-Dec)
2009 490 850 525
2010 560 900 640
2011 570 1020 750

i) Plot the data on a graph paper. (3 marks)

ii) Using the moving average method, find the trend values and plot them on the same graph as in (i). (5
marks)
iii) Calculate the seasonal indices for each term and explain the meaning of seasonal index for third term.
v) Forecast the number of television orders in second term of the year 2012. (3 marks)

12. b) The following table shows the production (in million units) of Gagah Holding for the last 13 weeks in
2009.

Month Week1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

September - 15 17 20
October 14 21 16 20
November 18 22 17 21
December 15 25 - -

i) Obtain the trend values using the moving average method. Give your answers correct to three decimal
places. (4 marks)
ii) Plot the actual time series data and the trend line on the same graph. (3 marks)
iii) Determine the seasonal index for each week, (4 marks)
iv) Explain the meaning of the seasonal index for Week 1 and Week 2. (2 marks)
v) Forecast the production for the first week of January 2010. (3 marks)

FAHA 2