Discrete Probability

Probability
 Mathematical modeling of the phenomenon of change of randomness.
 numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition
is true.
 Random Process
A process is random means that when it takes place, one outcome from some set of outcomes is
sure to occur, but it is impossible to predict with certainty which outcome that will be.

For instance, if an ordinary person performs the experiment of tossing an ordinary coin
into the air and allowing it to fall flat on the ground, it can be predicted with certainty
that the coin will land either heads up or tails up (so the set of outcomes can be denoted
{heads, tails}), but it is not known for sure whether heads or tails will occur.
 Sample Space
 The set of outcomes that can result from a random process or experiment is called a sample
space.
 Definition:
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random process or experiment.
An event is a subset of a sample space.
 Probability
 the probability of an event (set of outcomes) is just the ratio of the number of outcomes in
the event to the total number of outcomes.

 If S is a finite sample space in which all outcomes are equally likely and E is an event in S, then
the probability of E, denoted P(E), is

the number of outcomes in E

P(E) =
the total number of outcomes in S

N(E)
 P(E) =
N(S)
 Example: Probability
An ordinary deck of cards contains 52 cards divided into four suits. The red suits are
Diamond s and hearts and the black suits are clubs (♣) and spades (♠). Each
suit contains 13 cards of the following denominations: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J (jack),
Q (queen), K (king), and A (ace). The cards J, Q, and K are called face cards.

a. What is the sample space of outcomes?

b. What is the event that the chosen card is a black face card?
c. What is the probability that the chosen card is a black face card?
Example: Probability
Example: Probability
A die is one of a pair of dice. It is a cube with six sides,
each containing from one to six dots, called pips.

Suppose a blue die and a gray die are rolled together, and
the numbers of dots that occur face up on each are
recorded.
The possible outcomes can be listed as follows, where in
each case the die on the left is blue and the one on the
right is gray.
Example: Probability
 The Probability of a General Union of Two Events
If S is any sample space and A and B are any events in S, then
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).

If A and B are disjoint (that is, if A ∩ B = ∅), then the probability of the union of A and B is
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).
 The Probability of a General Union of Two Events
Example:

Suppose a card is chosen at random from an ordinary 52-card deck.

What is the probability that the card is a face card (jack, queen, or king) or is from one of the red
suits (hearts or diamonds)?
 The Probability of a General Union of Two Events
Solution
Let A be the event that the chosen card is a face card, and let B be the event that the chosen
card is from one of the red suits. The event that the card is a face card or is from one of the red
suits is A ∪ B. Now N(A) = 4·3 = 12 (because each of the four suits has three face cards), and so
P(A) = 12/52. Also N(B) = 26 (because half the cards are red), and so P(B) = 26/52. Finally, N(A ∩
B) = 6 (because there are three face cards in hearts and another three in diamonds), and so P(A
∩ B) = 6/52. It follows from the formula for the probability of a union of any two events that

Thus the probability that the chosen card is a face card or is from one of the red suits is
approximately 61.5%.
Expected Value
Example Expected Value
Expected Value of a Lottery
Suppose that 500,000 people pay $5 each to play a lottery game with
the following prizes:
a grand prize of $ 1,000,000,
10 second prizes of $1,000 each,
1,000 third prizes of $ 500 each, and
10,000 fourth prizes of $10 each.
What is the expected value of a ticket?
Example Expected Value
Each of the 500,000 lottery tickets has the same chance as any other of containing
a w i n n i n g l o t t e r y n u m b e r, a n d s o
1
𝑝𝑘 = for all k = 1, 2, 3,..., 500000.
500000
Let
𝑎1 , 𝑎 2 , 𝑎 3, ....,𝑎500000 b e the net gain for an individual ticket, where 𝑎1 = 999995 (the
net gain for the grand prize ticket, which is one million dollars minus the $5 cost
of the
w i n n i n g t i c ke t ) , 𝑎 2 = 𝑎 3 = … = 𝑎11 = 9 9 5 ( t h e n e t g a i n fo r e a c h o f t h e 1 0 s e c o n d p r i ze
t i c ke t s ) , 𝑎12 = 𝑎13 = … = 𝑎1011 = 4 9 5 ( t h e n e t g a i n fo r e a c h o f t h e 1 , 0 0 0 t h i rd p r i ze
t i c ke t s ) , a n d 𝑎1012 = 𝑎1013= …=𝑎11011 = 5 ( t h e net gain for each of the 10,000 fourth
p r i ze t i c ke t s ) . S i n c e t h e re m a i n i n g 4 8 8 , 9 8 9 t i c ke t s j u s t l o s e $ 5 , 𝑎11012 = 𝑎11013 =
⋯ = 𝑎 500000 = − 5 .
Example Expected Value