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C3M3L01Worksheet-EstimatingTaskTimes - 1

The document provides examples and instructions for calculating expected task times using formulas for optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic estimates. It gives three examples to practice calculating the expected time, deviation, and accuracy ranges using the provided formulas and estimates. The goal is to estimate time ranges at different accuracy levels to convey confidence intervals for project completion time.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
32 views7 pages

C3M3L01Worksheet-EstimatingTaskTimes - 1

The document provides examples and instructions for calculating expected task times using formulas for optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic estimates. It gives three examples to practice calculating the expected time, deviation, and accuracy ranges using the provided formulas and estimates. The goal is to estimate time ranges at different accuracy levels to convey confidence intervals for project completion time.

Uploaded by

Taseen
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Calculating 

Task Time Worksheet 
This worksheet is intended to give you practice calculating the task times, using the formulas that we 
covered in the lesson on Estimating Task Time. Take time to go through these examples. This is an 
important technique for you to know how to do comfortably. To get the most out of this resource, attempt 
the questions without looking at the answers. Check your answers to see how close you are to the actual 
answer. Read through the solutions for the questions you got wrong, then attempt the question again 
without the answer. For your convenience, here is the example (with solutions) to the example we looked 
at in the video.  
 
T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6  
σ = (Tp − To)
6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  
 
We have estimated that our Most Probable Time would be 15 days, our Optimistic Time would 
be 12 days, and our Pessimistic Time would be 30 days.  
 
T m  =  Most P robable T ime  =  15 days  
T o  =  Optimistic T ime  =  12 days  
T p  =  P essimistic T ime  =  30 days  
 
EXPECTED TIME ( T e )  DEVIATION ( σ ) 

T e = (T o + 4T6m + T p)   σ = (T p − T
6
o)
 
   
T e = (12 + 4*615+ 30)   σ = (30 − 12)
6  
   
T e = (12 + 60 + 30)   σ = (18)
6  
6
   
T e = (102) σ = 3   
6  
 
T e = 17  

 
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  →  17 days  ±  3 days → 
  14 days − 20 days  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  →  17 days  ±  6 days → 
  11 days − 23 days  
 
This means, that we are 68.5% sure that the project will take between 14 days and 20 days to 
complete. Or we can say that we are 95.5% sure that the project will take between 11 days and 
23 days to complete.   
EXAMPLE #1: 
 
T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6  
σ = (Tp − To)
6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  
 
You have estimated that your Most Probable Time would be 45 days. Your Optimistic 
Time would be 30 days. Your Pessimistic Time would be 96 days.  
 
T m  =  Most P robable T ime  =   ____________ 
 
T o  = Optimistic T ime =   ____________ 
 
T p  = P essimistic T ime =   ____________ 
 
 
T e  =  Expected T ime =   ____________   
 
σ  =  Deviation =   ____________ 
 
 
68.5% accuracy →  ____________ ± ____________  
 
95.5% accuracy →  ____________ ± ____________  
 
 
I am 68.5% sure that this project will take between __________ days and __________ 
days to complete. 
 
I am 95.5% sure that this project will take between __________ days and __________ 
days to complete. 
 
 
   
EXAMPLE #2: 
 
T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6  
σ = (Tp − To)
6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  
 
You have estimated that your Most Probable Time would be 9 days. Your Optimistic 
Time would be 6 days. Your Pessimistic Time would be 30 days.  
 
T m =   ____________ 
 
T o  =   ____________ 
 
T p  =   ____________ 
 
 
T e  =  ____________ 
 
σ  =  ____________ 
 
 
68.5% accuracy →  ____________ ± ____________  
 
95.5% accuracy →  ____________ ± ____________  
 
 
I am 68.5% sure that this project will take between __________ days and __________ 
days to complete. 
 
I am 95.5% sure that this project will take between __________ days and __________ 
days to complete. 
 
 
   
EXAMPLE #3: 
 
T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6  
σ = (Tp − To)
6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  
 
You have estimated that your Most Probable Time would be 60 days. Your Optimistic 
Time would be 43 days. Your Pessimistic Time would be 75 days.  
 
T m =   ____________ 
 
T o  =   ____________ 
 
T p  =   ____________ 
 
 
T e  =  ____________ 
 
σ  =  ____________ 
 
 
68.5% accuracy →  ____________ ± ____________  
 
95.5% accuracy →  ____________ ± ____________  
 
 
I am 68.5% sure that this project will take between __________ days and __________ 
days to complete. 
 
I am 95.5% sure that this project will take between __________ days and __________ 
days to complete. 
 
   
SOLUTION ­ EXAMPLE #1: 
 
T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6  
σ = (Tp − To)
6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  
 
You have estimated that your Most Probable Time would be 45 days. Your Optimistic 
Time would be 30 days. Your Pessimistic Time would be 96 days.  
 
T m =   45 days 
T o  =   ​
30 days 
T p  =   ​
96 days 
 
T e  =  ​51 days 
σ  =  ​
11 days 
 
68.5% accuracy →  51 ± 11  
95.5% accuracy →  51 ± 22  
 
I am 68.5% sure that this project will take between ​
40​
 days and ​
62 ​
days to complete. 
I am 95.5% sure that this project will take between ​
29 ​
days and ​
73 ​
days to complete. 
 
 
EXPECTED TIME ( T e )  DEVIATION ( σ ) 

T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6   σ = (Tp − To)
6  
   
(30 + 4*45 + 96) (96 − 30)
Te = 6   σ= 6  
   
Te = (90 + 180 + 96)
6   σ = (66)
6  
   
T e = (306) σ = 11  
6  
 
T e = 51  
 
 
SOLUTION ­ EXAMPLE #2: 
 
(To + 4Tm + Tp)
Te = 6  
(Tp − To)
σ = 6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  

 
T m =   9 days 
T o  =   ​
6 days 
T p  =   ​
30 days 
 
T e  =  ​12 days 
σ  =  ​
4 days 
 
68.5% accuracy →  12 ± 4  
95.5% accuracy →  12 ± 8  
 
8​
I am 68.5% sure that this project will take between ​ days and ​
16 ​
days to complete. 
I am 95.5% sure that this project will take between ​
4 ​
days and ​
20 ​
days to complete. 
 
EXPECTED TIME ( T e )  DEVIATION ( σ ) 

T e = (T o + 4T6m + T p)   σ = (T p − T
6
o)
 
   
Te = (6 + 4*9 + 30)
6   σ = (30 − 6)
6  
   
T e = (6 + 36 + 30)
6   σ = (24)
6  
   
T e = (72)
6  
σ = 4   
 
T e = 12  
EXAMPLE #3: 
 
T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6  
σ = (Tp − To)
6  
68.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  σ  
95.5% accuracy →  T e  ±  2σ  
 
You have estimated that your Most Probable Time would be 60 days. Your Optimistic 
Time would be 43 days. Your Pessimistic Time would be 75 days.  
 
T m =   60 days 
T o  =   ​
43 days 
T p  =   ​
75 days 
 
T e  =  ​60 days 
σ  =  ​
6 days 
 
68.5% accuracy →  60 ± 6  
95.5% accuracy →  60 ± 12  
 
I am 68.5% sure that this project will take between ​
54​
 days and ​
66 ​
days to complete. 
I am 95.5% sure that this project will take between ​
48 ​
days and ​
72 ​
days to complete. 
 
 
EXPECTED TIME ( T e )  DEVIATION ( σ ) 

T e = (To + 4Tm + Tp)
6   σ = (Tp − To)
6  
   
(43 + 4*60 + 75) (75 − 43)
Te = 6   σ= 6  
   
Te = (43 + 240 + 75)
6   σ = (32)
6  
   
T e = (358) σ = 5.33  =  6 days  
6  
 
T e = 59.67  =  60 days  
 

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