Probability-02 - Solved Example
Probability-02 - Solved Example
Example 1:
If m different cards are placed at random and independently into n boxes lying in a straight line
(n > m), find the probability that the cards go into m adjacent boxes.
Solution :
m cards can be placed into n boxes independently in nm ways.
n(S) = nm
Now m adjacent boxes can be chosen in n – m + 1 ways. In each of these the cards can be placed
into m! ways.
total number of ways in which the cards can be placed in m consecutive boxes
= (n – m + 1). m!
m! n m 1
Required probability = .
nm
Example 2 :
Out of 21 tickets consecutively numbered, three are drawn at random. Find the probability that the
numbers on them are in A.P.
Solution :
Any three tickets out of 21 tickets can be chosen is 21C3 ways. For the favourable choice if the
a c
choose numbers are a, b and c, a < b < c, then we should have b . Obviously either both
2
a and c are even or both are odd and then b is fixed. Hence for the favourable choice we have to
choose two numbers from 1 to 21, which are either both even or both odd. This can be done in
11
C2 + 10C2 ways.
11
C2 10 C2 10
Hence required probability = 21
.
C3 133
Example 3 :
A has 3 shares in a lottery containing 3 prizes and 9 blanks. B has 2 shares in a lottery containing
2 prizes and 6 blanks. Compare their chances of success.
Solution :
Let E1 be the event of success of A and let E2 be the event of success of B
Since A has 3 shares in a lottery containing 3 prizes and 9-blanks, A will draw 3 tickets out of 12
tickets (containing 3 prizes and 9 blanks). A will get success if he draws atleast one prize out of 3
draws.
9
C3 21
P E1 12
C3 55
21 34
P E1 1
55 55
6
C2 15
Again, P E2 8
28
C2
15 13
P(E2) = 1 –
28 28
P E1 34 28 952
P E 2 55 13 715
P(E1) : P(E2) = 952 : 715.
Example 4:
A coin is tossed m + n times (m > n). Show that the probability of at least m consecutive heads
n2
come up is .
2m 2
Solution :
Let H, T and S be the events “head turns up”, “tail turns up” and “head or tail turns up”
1
Then P(H) = P(T) = and P(S) = 1
2
Since the given event is “at least m consecutive heads turn up”, therefore in any favorable out come
there are m consecutive heads and the rest are any of head or tail
Consider the events
1 n 1
H,
A1 = H, H,. . ., H ,S,S,S,. . .,S
with P(A1) = m .1 m
m times n times 2 2
A2 = T, H, H, H,. . ., H ,S,S,S,. . .,S with P(A ) = 1 . 1 .1n 1 1
m times n 1times
2 2 2m 2m1
1 1 n 2 1
A3 = S,T, H, H, H,. . ., H ,S,S,S,. . .,S
with P(A3) = 1. . m .1 m 1
m times n 2 times 2 2 2
. . . An + 1 = S,S,S,. . .,S , T, H, H, H,. . ., H With P(A ) = 1n – 1. 1 . 1 1
n 1 times m times n +1 2 2m 2m 1
The given event is A1 A 2 A 3 A n 1 . As A1, A2, A3, . . ., An + 1 are pair – wise mutually
exclusive.
The required probability
1 1 1 1
= P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + . . . + P(An + 1) = m m 1 m1 . . . m 1
2 2
2 2
1 n 2n n times
= m m 1 m 1 .
2 2 2
Example 5:
There are four six faced dice such that each of two dice bears the numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 and
the other two dice are ordinary dice bearing numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. If all the four dice are
thrown, find the probability that the total of numbers coming up on all the dice is 10.
Solution :
Total number of sample points in the sample space = 64 = 1296
Number of sample points in favour of the event
= Coefficient of x10 in the expansion of (1 + x + x2 + . . . + x5)2 (x + x2 + . . . + x6)2
= Coefficient of x10 in the expansion of x2(1 + x + x2 + . . . + x5)4
= Coefficient of x8 in the expansion of (1 + x + x2 + . . . + x5)4
4
1 x6
= Coefficient of x in the expansionof
8
1 x
= Coefficient of x8 in the expansion of (1 – x6)4 (1 – x)–4
45 2 4 5 6 3
= Coefficient of x8 in the expansion of (1 – 4x6) 1 4x x x ...
2! 3!
= 1 11C8 4 5 C 2 125 .
125
Required probability = .
1296
Example 6:
A die is thrown 7 times. What is the probability that an odd number turns up (i) exactly 4 times (ii)
atleast 4 times.
Solution :
3 1 1 1
Probability of success = p= , q=
6 2 2 2
4 3
1 1 35
7
(i) For exactly four successes, required probability = C4. .
2 2 128
(ii) For atleast four successes, required probability
4 3 5 2 6 1 7
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7
= C4 . 7 C5 . 7 C6 . 7 C7
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
35 21 7 1 64 1
= .
128 128 128 128 128 2
Example 7:
If m things are distributed among ‘a’ men and ‘b’ women, show that the probability that the number
m m
1 b a b a
of things received by men is odd, is .
2
b a m
Solution :
a
A particular thing is received by a man with probability p = and by a woman with probability
ab
b
q= . If distributing a single object is an experiment, then this experiment is repeated m time.
ab
m
The required probability = C1 . p. qm – 1 + mC3 . p3. qm – 3 + mC5 . p5. qm – 5 + . . .
m m m
q p m q p m 1 ba 1 b a b a
= = 2 1 b a = .
2 2 b a m
Example 8 :
8 1
An artillery target may be either at point A with probability
or at point B with probability . We
9 9
have 21 shells each of which can be fixed either at point A or B. Each shell may hit the target
1
independently of the other shell with probability . How many shells must be fired at point A to hit
2
the target with maximum probability?
Solution :
Let E denote the event that the target is hit when x shells are fired at point A. Let E1 (E2) denote the
event that the artillery target is at point A B .
8 1
We have P(E1) = , P(E2) = .
9 9
x 21 x
E 1 E 1
P 1 and P 1
E1 2 E2 2
x 21 x
8 1 1 1 1 1
Now P(E) =
9 2 9 2
x 21 x
d 81 1 1
dx
P(E) n 2
9 2 9 2
n2
d
Now we must have
dx
P E 0
d2
x = 12, also P E 0
dx 2
Hence P(E) is maximum, when x = 12.
Example 9:
Let p be the probability that a man aged x years will die within a year. Let A1, A2, . . . , An be n men
each aged x years. Find the probability that out of these n men A1 will die with in a year and is first
to die.
Solution :
P(no one among A1, A2 . . . , An dies within a year) = (1 – p)n
P (at least one among A1, A2, . . ., An dies within a year) = 1 – (1 – p)n
1 n
P(A1dies within a year and is first to die) = 1 1 p .
n
Example 10:
Each of three bags A, B, C contains white balls and black balls. A has a1 white & b1 black, B has
a2 white & b2 black and C has a3 white & b3 black balls. A ball is drawn from a bag and found to
be white. What are the probabilities that the ball is from bag A, B and C.
Solution :
Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events that the bag picked is A, B and C respectively.
Let E be the event that a white ball is drawn.
We are supposed to find P(A1/E), P(A2/E), P(A3/E).
A1 P A1 E Probability that bag A is chosen and white ball is drawn
P = P(E) Probability that a bag is chosen at random and a white ball is drawn
E
P A1 .P E / A1
=
P A1 .P E / A1 P A 2 .P E / A 2 P A3 .P E / A 3
1 a1
.
3 a1 b1 p1 ak
= , pk = , k = 1, 2, 3.
1 a1 a2 a 3 p1 p 2 p3 a k bk
.
3 a1 b1 a 2 b 2 a 3 b3
p2 p3
Similarly, p(A2/E) = , p(A3/E) = .
p1 p 2 p3 p1 p 2 p3
Example 11:
The probability that at least one of A and B occurs is 0.6. If A and B occur simultaneously with
probability 0.3, then find the value of P( A) P ( B) .
Solution :
We have P( A B) 0.6 and P ( A B) 0.3
P(A) + P(B) = P( A B) + P( A B) = 0.6 + 0.3 = 0.9
P( A) P (B) 1 P ( A) 1 P ( B) 2 0.9 1.1
Example 12:
There are n students in a class and probability that exactly out of n pass the examination is
directly proportional to 2 0 n .
(i) Find out the probability that a student selected at random was passed the examination.
(ii) If a selected student has been found to pass the examination then find out the probability
that he is the only student to have passed the examination.
Solution :
Let E be the event that exactly out of n pass the examinations and let A be the event that a
student selected randomly pass the examination.
P E 2
P E k 2 (k is proportionality constant)
Since E0, E1, E2, . . . , En are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
P(E0) + P(E1) + P(E2) + . . . + P(En) = 1
0 + k (1)2 + k (2)2 + . . . + k (n2) = 1
6
k = n n 1 2n 1 . . . (i)
n n
k n 3 3 n 1
2
(i) P(A) P E P A / E = k
0 1
n n 1 2 2n 1
A
P E1 .P 2
E1 E1 2
(ii) P
A P A n n 1
A P A E
P .
P E n
Example 13 :
Let A and B be two independent witnesses in a case. The probability that A will speak the truth is
x and the probability that B will speak the truth is y. A and B agree in a certain statement. Show that
xy
the probability that the statement is true is 1 x y 2xy .
Solution :
Let E1 be the event that both A and B speak the truth, E2 be the event that both A and B tell a lie and
E be the event that A and B agree in a certain statement. Let C be the event that A speaks the truth
and D be the event that B speaks the truth.
E1 = C D and E2 = C D . P(E1) = P C D = P(C) P(D) = xy and
P(E2) = P C D = P C P D = (1 – x) (1 – y) = 1 – x – y + xy
E
Now P E = probability that A and B will agree when both of them speak the truth = 1 and
1
E
P E = probability that A and B will agree when both of them tell a lie = 1.
2
E1
Clearly, E be the event that the statement is true.
E1 P E1 .P E / E1
P E P E .P E / E P E P E / E
1 1 2 2
xy.1 xy
= .
xy.1 1 x y xy .1 1 x y 2xy
Example 14 :
Find the minimum number of tosses of a pair of dice, so that the probability of getting the sum of the
numbers on the dice equal to 7 on atleast one toss, is greater than 0.95.
(Given log102 = 0.3010, log103= 0.4771).
Solution :
n(S) = 36
Let E be the event of getting the sum of digits on the dice equal to 7, then n(E) = 6.
6 1 5
P(E) = p , then P E = q =
36 6 6
probability of not throwing the sum 7 in first m trails = qm .
m
m
5
P(at least one 7 in m throws) = 1 – q = 1 – .
6
m
5
According to the question 1 0.95
6
m
5
6 0.05
m log10 5 log10 6 log10 1 log10 20
m > 16.44
Hence, the least number of trails = 17.
Example 15 :
Two teams A and B play a tournment. The first one to win (n + 1) games, win the series. The
probability that A wins a game is p and that B wins a game is q (no ties). Find the probability that
n
n r 1
A wins the series. Hence or otherwise prove that Cr . n r 1 .
r 0 2
Solution :
A wins the series, if out of first n + r games A wins n games, 0 r n and wins the (n + r + 1)th
game.
n
P(A) = n r C n .q r .p n . p (where p + q = 1)
r 0
n
Similarly, P(B) = n r Cn .q n1.pr
r 0
Now P(A) + P(B) = 1
n
q r .pn 1 q n1.pr n r Cn 1 . . . (i)
r 0
1
Now put p = q =
2
n
1
from (i), n r Cn . 2 n r 1 .
r 0
SOLVED OBJECTIVE EXAMPLES
Example 1 :
A natural number is chosen at random from the first one hundred natural numbers. The probability
that
x 20 x 40 0 is
x 30
1 3
(A) (B)
50 50
3 7
(C) (D)
25 25
Solution :
From the wavy curve method, given inequality is satisfied for x < 20 or 30 < x < 40.
Number of favourable outcomes = 28
28 7
Required probability = .
100 25
Example 2 :
5 1 3
If A and B are two events such that P(A B) , P A , p(B) , then A and B are
6 3 4
(A) mutually exclusive (B) dependent
(C) independent (D) none of these
Solution :
P A B P(A) P(B) P A B
1 3 5 3 1
P A B
3 4 6 12 4
1 3 1
P(A) P(B) = . .
3 4 4
As P(A) P(B) = P A B independent
P A B 0 not exclusive.
Example 3 :
1 3p 1 p 1 p
If , and are the probabilities of three mutually exclusive events, then the set of
3 2 2
all values of p is
1 1
(A) (B) ,
2 3
(C) [0, 1] (D) none of these
Solution :
We have
1 3p 1 p 1 2p 1 1
0 , and 1 p , . Further if the events
3 2 2 3 2
(say E1, E2 and E3) are exclusive, then its necessary and sufficient condition is
8 3p
P E1 E 2 E 3 P E1 P E 2 P E 3 P E1 E 2 E 3
6
8 3p 2 8
0 1 p , .
6 3 3
Example 4 :
1
For independent events A1, . . ., An, P(Ai) = , i = 1, 2, . . ., n. Then the probability that
i 1
none of the events will occur is
(A) n/(n + 1) (B) n – 1/(n + 1)
(C) 1/(n + 1) (D) none of these
Solution :
P(non occurrence of (Ai)) = 1 – (i + 1) = i/(i + 1).
P(non occurrence of any of events)
1 2 n 1
= . . . . .
2 3 n 1 n 1
Example 5 :
A bag contains a large number of white and black marbles in equal proportions. Two samples of 5
marbles are selected (with replacement) at random. The probability that the first sample contains
exactly 1 black marble, and the second sample contains exactly 3 black marbles, is
25 15
(A) (B)
512 32
15 35
(C) (D)
1024 256
Solution :
Let the number of marble be 2n (where n is large)
n
n n C4 C3 n C 2
Required probability = nlim 2n
2n
C5 C5
2
n n n 1 n 2 n 3 n n 1 n 2 n n 1 5 2 2n 5 !
= nlim
4! 3! 2! 2n!2
3 2 2
n 4 n 1 n 2 n 3 2n 5 ! 5 5 4 3!
= nlim 2
3!2! 2n!
3 2
50.n 4 n 1 n 2
n 3 50 25
= lim .
n 2n 2n 1 2n 2 2n 3 2n 4 2 1024 512
Example 6 :
If two events A and B are such that P A = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and A B = 0.5, then
B
P =
A B
1 1
(A) (B)
4 5
3 2
(C) (D)
5 5
Solution :
P B A B
P B / A B =
P A B
P A B P(A) P(A B)
=
P(A) P(B) P(A B) 0.7 0.6 0.5
0.7 0.5 1
= .
0.8 4
Example 7 :
A is a set containing n elements. A subset P1 of A is chosen at random. The set A is reconstructed
by replacing the elements of P1. A subset P2 is again chosen at random. The probability that
P1 P2 contains exactly one element, is
3n 3n
(A) (B)
4n 4n
3
(C) (D) none of these
4
Solution :
Any element of A has four possibilities : element belongs to (i) both P1 and P2
(ii) neither P1 nor P2 (iii) P1 but not to P2 (iv) P2 but not to P1. Thus n(S) = 4n. For the favourable
cases, we choose one element in n ways and this element has three choices as (i), (iii) and (iv),
while the remaining n – 1 elements have one choice each, namely (ii).
3n
Hence required probability = .
4n
Example 8 :
The probability that in a group of N (< 365)people, at least two will have the same birthday is
365 ! 365 N 365 !
(A) 1 (B)
365 N ! 365 ! 365 N ! – 1
365 N 365 !
(C) 1 – (D) none of these
365 N !
Solution :
Let A be the event of different birthdays. Each can have birthday in 365 ways, so N persons can
have their birthdays in 365N ways. Number of ways in which all have different birthdays = 365PN
365
P(A) 1 P A 1
PN
1
365!
365 N
365 365 N ! .
N
Example 9 :
Let E and F be two independent events such that P(E) > P(F). The probability that both E and
1 1
F happen is and the probability that neither E nor F happens is , then
12 2
1 1 1 1
(A) P(E) = , P(F) = (B) P(E) = , P(F) =
3 4 2 6
1
(C) P(E) = 1, P(F) = (D) none of these
12
Solution :
1
P E F = P(E) P(F) = . . . (i)
12
1
c c c
c
P E F P E .P F
2
1
1 P E 1 P F . . . (ii)
2
1 1
Solving (i) and (ii), we get P(E) = & P(F) , as P(E) > P(F).
2 4
Example 10:
A draw two cards at random from a pack of 52 cards. After returning them to the pack and
shuffling it, B draws two cards at random. The probability that there is exactly one common
card, is
5 50
(A) (B)
546 663
25
(C) (D) none of these
663
Solution :
2
Let S be the sample space and let E be the required event, then n(S) = 52
C2 . For the number
of elements in E, we first choose a card (which we want common) and then from the remaining
cards (51 in numbers) we choose two cards and distribute them among A and B in 2! ways. Hence
50
n (E) = 52C1. 51C2. 2!. Thus P(E) = .
663
Example 11: :
A company has two plants to manufacture televisions. Plant I manufacture 70% of televisions
and plant II manufacture 30%. At plant I, 80% of the televisions are rated as of standard quality
and at plant II, 90% of the televisions are rated as of standard quality. A television is chosen at
random and is found to be of standard quality. The probability that it has come from plant II is
17 27
(A) (B)
50 83
3
(C) (D) none of these
5
Solution :
Let E be the event that a television chosen randomly is of standard quality. We have to find
P E / II .P(II)
P(II/E) = P E / I .P I P E / II .P II
9 /10 3 /10
= 4 / 5 7 /10 9 /10 3 /10 27 / 83
Example 12:
x1, x2, x3, . . . , x50 are fifty real numbers such that xr < xr + 1 for r = 1, 2, 3, . . ., 49. Five numbers
out of these are picked up at random. The probability that the five numbers have x20 as the middle
number is
20
C 2 30 C 2 30
C2 19 C2
(A) 50 (B) 50
C5 C5
19
C 2 31 C3
(C) 50 (D) none of these
C5
Solution :
n(S) = 50C5 = Total number of ways
n(E) = 30C2 × 19C2 = Number of favourable ways
30
C2 19 C2
P(E) = 50 .
C5
Example 13 :
If the integers m and n are chosen at random from 1 to 100, then the probability that a number
of the form 7n + 7m is divisible by 5 equals
1 1
(A) (B)
4 2
1
(C) (D) none of these
8
Solution :
We observe that 71, 72, 73 and 74 ends in 7, 9, 3 and 1 respectively. Thus 7l ends in 7, 9, 3 or 1
according as l is of the form 4k + 1, 4k + 2, 4k – 1 or 4k respectively. If S is the sample space,
then n (S) = (100)2. 7m + 7n is divisible by 5 if (i) m is of the form 4k + 1 and n is of the form
4k – 1 or (ii) m is of the form 4k + 2 and n is of the form 4k or (iii) m is of the form 4k – 1 and n
is of the form 4k + 1 or (iv) m is of the form 4k and n is of the form 4k + 1.
1
Thus number of favourable ordered pairs (m, n) = 4 25 25 . Hence required probability is .
4
Example 14 :
3
The probability that a man can hit a target is . He tries 5 times. The probability that he will hit
4
the target at least three times is
291 371
(A) (B)
364 461
471 459
(C) (D)
502 512
Solution :
3 1
P= ,q , n 5
4 4
3 2 4 5
3 1 5 3 1 5 3 459
Required probability = 5C3 C 4 . C5 = .
4 4 4 4 4 512
Example 15 :
A die is thrown 7 times. The chance that an odd number turns up at least 4 times, is
1 1
(A) (B)
4 2
1
(C) (D) none of these
8
Solution :
For at least 4 successes, required probability
4 3 5 2 6 1 17
1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7 1
= 7C4 2 2 C5 2 2 C6 2 2 C7 2 = .
2