1.

TERMS AND DEFINITIONS USED IN PROBABILITY :

1.1 Random Experiment
An experiment is called random if
(i) all the outcomes of the experiment are known in advance
(ii) the exact outcome of any specific performance of the experiment is unpredicatable
i.e. not known in advance.
For Example drawing a card from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing
cards is a random experiment.
1.2 Sample Space
A set whose elements represent all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the
sample space and is usually represented by ‘S’.
Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the number on the top face,
then sample space would be S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. If we are interested only in whether the
number is even or odd, then sample space is S2 = {even, odd}. Clearly more than one sample
space can be used to describe the outcomes of an experiment. In this case ‘S1’ provides more
information than ‘S2’. If we know which element in S1 occurs, we can tell which outcome in
S2 occurs; however, knowledge of what happens in S2 in no way helps us to know which
element in S1 occurs.
In general it is desirable to use a sample space that gives the maximum information concerning
the outcomes of the experiment.
1.3 Sample Point
Each element of the sample space is called a sample point.
1.4 Event
An event is a subset of the sample space. When a die is rolled, sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Let A = {1, 3, 5}, B = {2, 4, 6}, C = {1, 2, 3, 4}. Here A is the event of occurrence of an odd
number, B is the event of occurrence of an even number and C is the event of occurrence of
a number less than 5.
1.5 Simple Event
An event is called a simple event, if it is a singleton subset of the sample space S.
1.6 Compound Event
A subset of the sample space S which contains more than one element is called a compound
event
1.7 Equally likely Events
A set of events is said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the relevant factors
there is no reason to expect one of them in preference to the others. For example when a fair
coin is tossed, the occurrence of a tail or a head are equally likely.
1.8 Exhaustive Events
A system of events is said to be exhaustive if on each performance of the experiment at least
one of the events of the system is must to occur. In set theoretic notation, events A1, A2, . . .
m
, Am are exhausitve if  Ai  S . For example on throwing of a die, the events {1, 2}, {2, 3,
i 1
4}, {5} and {4, 5, 6} form an exhaustive system of events.
1.9 Mutually Exclusive Events
A set of events is said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one of them precludes
the occurrence of any of the remaining events. For example, when we throw a pair of dice,
the events “ a sum of 5 occurs”, “a sum of 7 occurs” and “a sum of 9 occurs” are mutually
exclusive. In set theoretic notation, events A1, A2, . . . , Am are mutually exclusive if
Ai  A j   for i  j and 1  i, j  m .

2. CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

If there are n exhausitve mutually exclusive and equally likely out comes of an experiment
and m of them are favourable to an event A, then the probability of the happening of A is
m
equal to and it is denoted by P(A). Clearly P(A) is a non-negative number not greater
n
than unity. So 0  P(A)  1 .
If probability of happening of an event A is 1, then A is called certain event and if probability
of happening of event A is zero, then A is called impossible event.

Illustration 1 :
Six boys and six girls sit in a row randomly, find the probability that all the 6 girls sit
together.
Solution:
Let S be the sample space and E the event that all the 6 girls sit together . Then n(S) = Total
number of ways of seating 6 boys and 6 girls in a row = 12! and n(E) = number of ways of
seating 6 boys and 6 girls in a row so that all the 6 girls sit together = 7!6!
n  E  6!7! 1
 P(E) = n  S  12!  132 .

Drill Exercise - 1
1. Two numbers are selected at random from 1, 2, 3, ......, 100 and are multiplied. Find the
probability correct to two places of decimals that the product thus obtained, is divisible by 3.

2. Each coefficient in the equation ax2 + bx + c = 0 is determined by throwing an ordinary die.

Find the probability that the equation will have equal roots.

3. Four cards are drawn from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability (correct upto two
places of decimals) of drawing exactly one pair.

4. From a bag containing 5 red different pairs and 4 white different pairs of socks. Find the
probability of getting a pair by drawing 2 socks.

5. Seven white balls and three black balls are randomly placed in a row. Find the probability
that no two black balls are placed adjacently.
2.1 Odds in Favour and Odds Against an Event
As a result of an experiment, if p of the outcomes are favourable to an event E and q of the
outcomes are against it, then we say that odds are p to q in favour of E or odds are q to p
against E.
number of favourable cases p
 Odds in favour of an event E = number of unfavourable cases  q
number of unfavourable cases q
and odds against an event E = 
number of favourable cases p

If odds in favour of an event E are p : q then the probability of the occurrence of that event
p
is p  q
q
Similarly the probability of the non-occurrence of that event is p  q

Illustration 2 :
What are the odds in favour of throwing at least 8 in a single throw with two dice?
Solution :
Let S be the sample space and E be the event of occurrence of a total of at least 8, then
n(S) = 6  6  36 and n(E) = 15
15
 P(E) =
36
15 21
 P  E   1  P(E)  1  
36 36
Odds infavour of E = P(E) : P  E  = 5 : 7 ]

Drill Exercise - 2
1. In a given race, the odds in favour of four horses A, B, C and D are 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5 and 1 : 6
respectively. Assuming that a dead heat is impossible, find the chance that one of them wins
the race.

2. The chance of one event happening is the square of the chance of a 2nd event, but odds
against the first are the cubes of the odds against the 2nd . Find the chances of each.

3. Three critics review a book. Odds in favour of the book are 5 : 2, 4 : 3 and 3 : 4 respectively
for the three critics. Find the probability that majority are in favour of the book.

4. Suppose that it is 9 to 7 against a person A who is now 35 years of age living till he is 65
and 3 to 2 against a person B now 45 living till he is 75, then find the chance that one
atleast of these persons will be alive 30 years hence.

5. What are the odds in favour of getting a spade if the card is drawn from a well-shuffled
deck of cards ? What are the odds in favour of getting a king ?
3.1 SET THEORETIC PRINCIPLES
If ‘A’ and ‘B’ be any two events of the sample space, then A B would stand for occurrence of
atleast one of them and AB stands for simultaneous occurrence of A and B. A  or A  stands
for non–occurrence of A.
A  B (or (A  B) stands for non–occurrence of both A and B. A  B stands for ‘the
occurrence of A implies the occurrence of B.
If A and B are any two events, then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P (AB). If A and B are
mutually exclusive, P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).
Hence P  A  = P(A) = 1 – P(A)
P(AB) = P(A) – P(AB)
Now P(exactly one of A and B occurs)
= P  A  B   P  A  B  = P(A) + P(B)  2P(A  B) = P(A  B)  P(A  B)
3.2 Some Theorems
(i) If A  B , then (i) P  A   P  B  and (ii) P(B – A) = P(B) – P(A)
 n  n
(ii) P   Ai    P  Ai  and equality holds if and only if events Ai, i = 1, 2, . . . , n are
 
 i1  i 1
exclusive.
 n 
(iii) P   Ai   1 and equality holds if and only if events A , i = 1, 2, . . . n are exhaustive.
  i
 i 1 
n
(iv)  P  Ai  = 1 if events Ai, i = 1, 2, . . ., n are exclusive and exhaustive.
i 1

 n  n
Note : If events A1, A2, . . . , An are exclusive, then P   A i    P  Ai  . This is called the
 
 i 1  i 1
rule of sum.
3.3 Some Useful Formulas
(i) For two events A and B
(a) P(at least one out of them) = P(A) + P(B) – P( A  B)
(b) P (exactly one out of them) = P(A) + P(B) – 2 P( A  B)
(ii) For three events A, B and C
(a) P(at least one out of them) =
P  A   P  B   P  C   P  A  B  P  B  C   P  C  A   P  A  B  C 
(b) P (at least two out of them) =
P ( B  C )  P ( C  A )  P ( A  B)  2 P ( A  B  C)
(c) P (exactly two out of them) =
P( B  C)  P (C  A )  P ( A  B)  3P ( A  B  C)
(d) P (exactly one out of them) =
P (A )  P ( B)  P (C)  2P ( B  C)  2P (C  A )  2P ( A  B)  3P ( A  B  C)
Illustration 3 :
From the set S = {1, 2, 3, . . . 3n}, three numbers are chosen at random. Find the probability
that the sum of the chosen numbers is divisible by 3.
Solution :
Let Sk  S, having those numbers, which leave a remainder of k, k = 0, 1, 2, when divided
by 3. Obviously n(Sk) = n.
Let Ek be the event that the numbers are chosen from Sk, k = 0, 1, 2. Let E3 be the event
that the chosen numbers are from the sets S0, S1 and S2 (one number from each set). Let E
be event that the sum of the chosen numbers is divisible by 3. Now P(E0) = P(E1) = P(E3)
n
C3
= 3n .
C3
nnn
P(E3) = . 3n
C3
The required probability = P(E) = P  E0  E1  E2  E3 
= P(E0) + P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) (using rule of sum )
3.n C3  n 3
= 3n .
C3
Drill Exercise -3

1. Let A and B be two events defined on a sample space. Given P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.80 and P  A  B 

= 0.10. Find (i) P  A  B  (ii) P  A  B    A  B  

1 1 1
2. Let A and B be two events with P(A) = , P(B) = and P  A  B   . Find
2 3 4

(i) P  A  B  (ii) P  A  B  (iii) P  A  B 

3 1 1
3. If P(A)  , P  B   and P  A  B   , then show that A and B are exclusive events.
7 2 14

4. The probabilities of three events A, B and C are P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4, P(C) = 0.5. If
P( A  B)  0.8, P ( A  C)  0.3, P( A  B  C)  0.2 and P( A  B  C)  0.85 , find the
range of vlaues of P  B  C  .

5. A and B are two events satisfying P  A  B  = P  A   P  B  . The probability that both

occur simultaneously is 1/6 and the probability that neither occurs is 1/3. Find the
probabilities of occurrence of the events A and B separately.
4.1 INDEPENDENT EXPERIMENTS
If two random experiments are performed separately i.e., their outcomes are independent of each
other, then the experiments are called independent experiments.

For example
(i) Consider the tossing of a coin twice, clearly the outcome for the second toss is not effected by
the result of the first toss. So the two tosses are independent random experiments.

(ii) Consider the drawing of two balls one after the other, with replacement, from an urn containing
two or more balls. Then the two draws are independent of each other. So considering each
draw as an experiment, the two experiments are independent random experiments.

(iii) In throwing of a die and a coin together or one after the other are independent experiments.

Remarks
(i) In drawing of two cards, without replacement, from a well-shuffled ordinary pack of 52-
playing cards, the two draws are not independent experiments.

(ii) Let E1 and E2 be two independent random experiments.Let A be an event of experiment

E1 only and B be an event of experiment E2 only. Then P(A occurs in E1 and B occurs in E2) =
P(A). P(B).

For example if a coin and a die are thrown together and A = {H}, B = {1, 2, 3, 4}, then (head on
1 4 1
coin and a number  4 on die) = P(A). P(B) =   .
2 6 3

4.2 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FOR SUCCESSIVE EVENTS

If an experiment is repeated ‘n’ times and probability of occurence of an event of one trial is P, then
(i) Probability of occuring the event exactly ‘r’ times is nCr P r (1 – P) n – r.

n
(ii) Probability of occuring the event atleast ‘r’ times is  n
C k P k (1  P) n  k .
k r

r
(iii) Probability of occuring the event atmost ‘r’ times is  n
C k P k (1  P) n  k .
k 0

For example if a die is thrown five times and we want the probability of occurrence of a
2 1 1 2
composite number four times, then we have p =  , q  1   and n = 5, r = 4.
6 3 3 3
4 1
1  2 10
n
Thus required probability = Crp q r n– r
= C4     
5
.
 3   3  243
 Drill Exercise - 4
1. A policeman fires six bullets on a dacoit. The probability that the dacoit will be killed by one bullet
is 0.6, then find the probability that dacoit is still alive.
2. One hundred identical coins, each with probability p, of showing up heads are tossed. If
0 < p < 1 and the probability of heads showing on 50 coins is equal to that of the heads
showing on 51 coins, then find the value of p.
3. If a pair of fair dice is rolled 5 times, then find out the probability that 3 times we get sum more
than 9.
4. If 4 times two cards are drawn from a pack of playing cards (each time replacing both), then
find the probability that only one time, we get a pair, (cards of same denomination).
5. A number is selected 3 times with replacement from the set {10, 11, 12 . . . 99}. Find out the
probability that at least two times product of digits of the selected number is 18.

5. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability of occurrence of an event B when it is known that some event A has already
occurred, is called the conditional probability and is denoted by P(B/A). The symbol P(B/A)
is usually read as probability of B, given A.Consider two events A and B. When it is known
that event ‘A’ has occurred, it means that sample space would reduce to that sample points
representing event A. Now for P(B/A) we must look for the sample points representing the
simultaneous occurrence of A and B i.e., sample points in A  B .

n  A  B
n  A  B n(S) P(A  B)
 P(B/A) =  
n A n(A) P(A)
n(S)

P  A  B P A  B
Thus P(B/A) = ,where 0 < P(A)  1. Similarly, P(A/B) = ,0 < P(B)
P A  P  B
1
P(A).P(B / A), P(A)  0
Hence, P  A  B  = 
 P(B).P(A / B), P(B)  0
Illustration 4:
If a pair of dice is thrown and it is known that sum of the numbers is even, then find the
probability that the sum is less than 6.
Solution :
Let A be the given event and let B be the event, whose probability is to be found. Then
 B  P  B  A  4 / 36 2
Required probability P      .
A P(A) 18 / 36 9
 Drill Exercise - 5
1. There is 30% chance that it rains on any particular day. What is the probability that there is at
least one rainy day within a period of 7-days ? Given that there is at least one rainy day, what is
the probability that there are at least two rainy days.
2. A fair coin is tossed repeatedly. If tail appears on first four tosses, then find the probability of
head appearing on the fifth toss.
3. In a certain town, 40% of the people have brown hair, 25% have brown eyes and 15% have both
brown hair and brown eyes. If a person selected at random from the town, having brown hair, then
find the probability that he also has brown eyes.
4. If E and F are the complementary events of events E and F respectively and if 0 < P(F) < 1, then
prove that
(i) P(E / F) + P  E / F   1 (ii) P(E / F)   E / F   1

5. A coin is tossed until a head appears or until it has been tossed 3 times. Given that head does
not appear on the first toss, then find the probability that the coin is tossed three times.
6.1 Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent if occurrence or non–occurrence of one
does not affect the occurrence or non–occurrence of the other,
i.e., P(B/A) = P(B), P(A)  0.

P  A  B
 P(B/A) =  P(B)  P(A  B) = P(A). P(B)
P(A)
If the events are not independent, then they are said to be dependent.

Illustration 5 :
If A and B are independent events. Then show that the following pairs of events are also
independent (i) A and B (ii) A  and B
Solution :
(i) P  A  B  P  B   P  A  B   P  B   P(A)P(B)

( A and B are independent) = P(B) (1 – P(A)) = P(B) P  A  .

(ii)  
P  A  B   P  A  B   1  P  A  B  = 1   P(A)  P(B)  P(A).P(B)

= 1 – P(A) – P(B) + P(A). P(B) = (1 – P(A)) (1 – P(B)) = P  A  . P  B  .

6.2 Mutually independent Events

Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent if,
P  A  B  = P(A). P(B), P  A  C  = P(A). P(C), P  B  C  = P(B). P(C)
 and P  A  B  C  = P(A). P(B). P(C)
These events would be said to be pair–wise independent if,
P  A  B  = P(A). P(B), P  B  C  = P(B). P(C) and P  A  C  = P(A). P(C).
Thus mutually independent events are pair–wise independent but the converse may not be
true.

Illustration 6 :
A lot contains 50 defective and 50 non-defective bulbs. Two bulbs are drawn at random,
one at a time with replacement. The events A, B and C are defined as under:
A = {The first bulb is defective}, B = {The second bulb is non-defective}
C = {The two bulbs are either both defective or both non-defective}
Catogorize the events A, B and C to be pairwise independent or mutually independent.
Solution :
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
P(A) = 1  , P(B) = 1  and P(C) =    
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
P  A  B  P (the first bulb in defective and the second bulb is non-defective)
1 1 1
=   .
2 2 4
1 1 1
P  B  C  = P(both the bulbs are non-defective) =  
2 2 4
1 1 1
P  C  A  = P (both the bulbs are defective) =  
2 2 4
P  A  B  C   P    0

As P  A  B   P(A).P(B), P  B  C   P  B  .P  C  and P  C  A   P(C).P(A) , the

events
A, B and C are pairwise independent.
Since P  A  B  C   0  P(A).P(B).P(C) , A, B and C are not mutually independent.
6.3 Rule of Multiplication
Suppose A1, A2, . . . , An be n events such that P  A1  A 2  . . .  A n   0 , then

 n 
P   A i   P  A1  .P  A 2 / A1  .P  A 3 / A1  A 2  . . .P  A n / A1  A 2  . . .  A n 1 
 
 i 1 

Illustration 7:
P1, P2, . . . , P8 an eight players participating in a tournament. If i < j, then Pi will win the match
against Pj. Players are paired up randomly for first round and winners of this round again paired up
for the second round and so on. Find the probability that P4 reaches in the final.
Solution:
Let A1 be the event that in the first round the four winners are P1, P4, Pi, Pj, where i  {2, 3},
j  {5, 6, 7}and let A2 be the event that out of the four winners in the first round, P1 and P4
reaches in the final.
The event A1 will occur, if P4 plays with any of P5, P6, P7 or P8 (say with P6) and P1, P2 and
P3 are not paired with P5, P7 and P8. Further A2 will occur if P1 plays with Pi.
 A2 
The required probability = P  A1  A 2  = P(A1). P  A  .
 1

 6 
4  3
  2 3 3  1
  4
= = .
8 4 35
 2 4 4  22 2
(Here we have used the concept of division into groups).

Drill Exercise - 6
1. A coin is tossed three times. Let E be the event that first toss results in a head and let F be the
event that third toss results in a tail. Show that the events E and F are independent events.
2. A bag contains four tickets on which the numbers 112, 121, 211 and 222 are written (one
number on one ticket). A ticket is takent out at random. Let Ei (i = 1, 2, 3) be the event that
ith digit (from left) of the number on the chosen ticket is 1. Show that the events E1, E2 and
E3 are pairwise independent but they are not mutually independent.

3. If A and B are two independent events, then show that P  A  B  .P  A  B   P  C  , where

C is the event that exactly one of A and B occurs.
4. Four cards are chosen at random one by one, without replacement from a well shuffled pack
of 52 playing cards. Show that the probability that all the chosen cards are aces, is
1
.
2  13  17  49
5. Cards are drawn one by one (without replacement) at random from a well shuffled full pack
of 52 playing cards until two aces are obtained for the first time. If N is the number of cards
 n  1 52  n  51  n 
required to be drawn, then show that P(N = n) = , where 2  n  50.
50  49  17  13
7.1 Total Probability Theorem
Suppose A1, A2 . . . , An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, then for any event B, we
n

can write  B  A j 
i 1
 n
 P  B    P  B  Ai  , as events B  A , i = 1, 2, . . ., n are exclusive.
i
i 1

n
 P(B) =  P  B / Ai .P  Ai  .
i 1

Illustration 8 :
Two sets of candidates are competing for the positions on the board of directors of a company.
The probabilities that the first and second sets will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. If the first set
wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.8, and the corresponding probability, if the
second set wins is 0.3. What is the probability that the new product will be introduced?

Solution :
Let A1 (A2) denotes the event that first (second) set wins and let B be the event that a new
product is introduced.
 P(A1) = 0.6, P(A2) = 0.4

 B  B 
P  A   0.8, P  = 0.3
 1  A2 

 B  B 
P(B) = P  B  A1   P  B  A 2   P  A1  .P  A   P  A 2  P  A  .
 1  2
= 0.6  0.8  0.4  0.3  0.6 .
7.2 Baye’s Theorem
Suppose A1, A2, . . ., An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of events.
Then the conditional probability that Aj happens (given that B has happened) is given by

P(Aj/B) =

P Aj  B   P  A j .P  B / A j  , where j = 1, 2, ....., n.
P  B n
 P  Ai  .P  B / Ai 
i 1

Illustration 9 :
Box I contains 2 white and 3 red balls and box II contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is
drawn at random from one of the boxes and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was
from box II.

Solution :
Let A denote the event that the drawn ball is red
Let A1  The event that box I is selected and let A2  The event that box II is selected
  A 
P  A 2  .P  
A 
P 2    A2 
  A  A  A 
P  A1  P    P  A 2  .P  
 A1   A2 

1 5
.
2 9 25

= 1 5 1 3 32
.  .
2 9 2 5

Drill Exercise - 7

1. Three groups A, B and C are competing for position on the Board of Directors of a company.
The probabilities of their winning are 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 respectively. If the group A wins, the
probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding probabilities for groups
B and C are 0.6 and 0.5 respectively. Find the probability that the new product will be
introduced.

2. A factory A produces 10% defective valves and another factory B produces 20% efective. A
bag contains 4 valves of factory A and 5 valves of factory B. If two valves are drawn at
random from the bag, find the probability that atleast one valves is defective. Give your
answer upto two places of decimals.

3. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a dice and reports that it is six,
then find the probability that it is actually six.

4. A bag contains 3 red and 4 white balls. A fair coin is tossed. If head comes, two balls are
drawn and if tail comes, three balls are drawn. Find the probability that draw contains balls
of both the colours.

5. A bag contains 10 fair coins and 25 coins having heads on both sides. A coin is selected at
random and tossed. If it gives head, then find out the probability that it was a fair coin.
 ANSWERS OF DRILL EXERCISES

Drill Exercise - 1

1. 0.55 2. 5/216 3. 0.31

7
4. 1/17 5.
15

Drill Exercise - 2

1 1 209
1. 319/420 2. , 3.
9 3 243

4. 53/80 5. 1/3, 1/12

Drill Exercise - 3

1. (i) 0.82 (ii) 0.76

7 5 1
2. (i) (ii) (iii)
12 12 12

1 1 1 1
4. .2  P ( B  C)  .35 5. and or and
2 3 3 2

Drill Exercise - 4
51 250 214 524
1. 0.004096 2. 3. 5 4. 4 5.
101 6 17 453

Drill Exercise - 5

7    7 7 7  3   7 6  7
7 7  1 3
1. 1    ,  1     C1      /1     2. 3.
 10     10   10   10    10   2 8

Drill Exercise - 7
3
1. 0.63 2. 0.29 3.
4
5 1
4. 5.
7 6