Scribd
Upload
54 views4 pages

Cve 172

The document contains two problems related to calculating probabilities of meeting schedules for projects using PERT analysis. Problem 1 provides activity information for a project with a 72 day contract and calculates: a) 97.56% probability of meeting the schedule, b) 87.08% probability if delayed 3 days, and c) probabilities of completing in 55 days or less (0.24%), more than 60 days (92.07%), and between 65-70 days (42.07%). Problem 2 provides activity information for a network with a total expected duration of 28 days and calculates the probabilities of meeting scheduled durations of 24 days (9.34%) and 32 days (90.66%).

Uploaded by

Jesimie Orias
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
54 views4 pages

Cve 172

The document contains two problems related to calculating probabilities of meeting schedules for projects using PERT analysis. Problem 1 provides activity information for a project with a 72 day contract and calculates: a) 97.56% probability of meeting the schedule, b) 87.08% probability if delayed 3 days, and c) probabilities of completing in 55 days or less (0.24%), more than 60 days (92.07%), and between 65-70 days (42.07%). Problem 2 provides activity information for a network with a total expected duration of 28 days and calculates the probabilities of meeting scheduled durations of 24 days (9.34%) and 32 days (90.66%).

Uploaded by

Jesimie Orias
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 4

CE Logo.

png

CVE172-EXAM 1

1
0.1 Problem 1
The contract for a project is 72 days,

Activity IPA te ES EF LS LF TF σ σ2
A - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B A 16.33 0 16.33 5.66 21.99 5.66 - -
C A 14.33 0 14.33 0 14.33 0 1.67 2.78
D B 28.5 16.33 44.83 21.99 50.49 5.66 - -
E C 17.33 14.33 31.66 14.33 31.66 0 1.33 1.78
F D 14.67 44.83 59.5 50.49 65.16 5.66 - -
G E 33.5 31.66 65.16 31.66 65.16 0 2.83 8.03
H G,F 0 65.16 65.16 65.16 65.16 0 0 0

Te =0 +√ 14.33 + 17.33 + 33.5 + 0 = 65.16 or 65 days


σ T e = 12.59 = 3.5482

a) What is the chance (in percent) of meeting the schedule?

Let Ts =72 days:

z= Tσs −T e
Te
z= 72−65
3.55
z= 1.97
0.9756 or 97.56%.

b) Assume the owner delays the job start by 3 days. What is the probability
(in percent) that the project will still finish at the originally scheduled comple-
tion date?

Let Ts =72-3=69 days:

z= 69−65
3.55
z= 1.13
0.8708 or 87.08%.

c) What are the probabilities (in percent) of completing the project in:
i. 55 days or less;

z= 55−65
3.55
z= -2.82

2
0.0024 or 0.24%.

ii. More than 60 days;

z= Tσs −T e
Te
z= 60−65
3.55
z= -1.41
1 - 0.0793 = 0.9207 or 92.07%

iii. Between 65 and 70 days;

Let 65≤T s ≥ 70 days:


z= 65−65
3.55

z= 0
0.50000
z= 70−65
3.55
z= 1.41
0.92073

0.9207 - 0.5000 = 0.4207 or 42.07%

3
0.2 Problem 2
PERT data have been computed for the network below. Determine the proba-
bilities of meeting the scheduled duration of 24 and 32 days.

Activity IPA te ES EF LS LF TF σ σ2
A - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B A 4 0 4 0 4 0 0.67 0.45
C A 4 0 4 1 5 1 - -
D B 6 4 10 4 10 0 0.33 0.11
E C 3 4 7 7 10 3 - -
F C 7 4 11 5 12 1 - -
Te =0 + 4 +
G D,E 2 10 12 10 12 0 0.33 0.11
H D,E 1 10 11 18 19 8 - -
I G,F 9 12 21 12 21 0 2 4
J H 5 11 16 19 24 8 - -
K H,I 3 21 24 21 24 0 1.33 1.77
L K 4 24 28 24 28 0 1.67 2.79
M J,L 0 28 28 28 28 0 0 0

6 + 2+ 9 + 3 + 4 + 0 = 28 days
√
σ T e = 9.2245 = 3.0372

Let Ts =24days:
z= Tσs −T e
Te
z= 24−28
3.04
z= -1.32

Let Ts =32 days:


z= 32−28
3.04
z= 1.32

Scheduled Duration Probability of Meeting Schedule


30 0.74
25 0.16
35 0.99
24 0.09342
32 0.90658

You might also like