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    Cve 172

    Uploaded by

    Jesimie Orias
    The document contains two problems related to calculating probabilities of meeting schedules for projects using PERT analysis. Problem 1 provides activity information for a project with a 72 day contract and calculates: a) 97.56% probability of meeting the schedule, b) 87.08% probability if delayed 3 days, and c) probabilities of completing in 55 days or less (0.24%), more than 60 days (92.07%), and between 65-70 days (42.07%). Problem 2 provides activity information for a network with a total expected duration of 28 days and calculates the probabilities of meeting scheduled durations of 24 days (9.34%) and 32 days (90.66%).

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Cve 172

    Uploaded by

    Jesimie Orias
    30 views4 pages
    The document contains two problems related to calculating probabilities of meeting schedules for projects using PERT analysis. Problem 1 provides activity information for a project with a 72 day contract and calculates: a) 97.56% probability of meeting the schedule, b) 87.08% probability if delayed 3 days, and c) probabilities of completing in 55 days or less (0.24%), more than 60 days (92.07%), and between 65-70 days (42.07%). Problem 2 provides activity information for a network with a total expected duration of 28 days and calculates the probabilities of meeting scheduled durations of 24 days (9.34%) and 32 days (90.66%).

    Original Description:

    PERT CHART DATA

    Original Title

    cve172

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    The document contains two problems related to calculating probabilities of meeting schedules for projects using PERT analysis. Problem 1 provides activity information for a project with a 72 day contract and calculates: a) 97.56% probability of meeting the schedule, b) 87.08% probability if delayed 3 days, and c) probabilities of completing in 55 days or less (0.24%), more than 60 days (92.07%), and between 65-70 days (42.07%). Problem 2 provides activity information for a network with a total expected duration of 28 days and calculates the probabilities of meeting scheduled durations of 24 days (9.34%) and 32 days (90.66%).

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    30 views4 pages

    Cve 172

    Uploaded by

    Jesimie Orias
    The document contains two problems related to calculating probabilities of meeting schedules for projects using PERT analysis. Problem 1 provides activity information for a project with a 72 day contract and calculates: a) 97.56% probability of meeting the schedule, b) 87.08% probability if delayed 3 days, and c) probabilities of completing in 55 days or less (0.24%), more than 60 days (92.07%), and between 65-70 days (42.07%). Problem 2 provides activity information for a network with a total expected duration of 28 days and calculates the probabilities of meeting scheduled durations of 24 days (9.34%) and 32 days (90.66%).

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
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    CVE172-EXAM 1

    1
    0.1 Problem 1
    The contract for a project is 72 days,

    Activity IPA te ES EF LS LF TF σ σ2
    A - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    B A 16.33 0 16.33 5.66 21.99 5.66 - -
    C A 14.33 0 14.33 0 14.33 0 1.67 2.78
    D B 28.5 16.33 44.83 21.99 50.49 5.66 - -
    E C 17.33 14.33 31.66 14.33 31.66 0 1.33 1.78
    F D 14.67 44.83 59.5 50.49 65.16 5.66 - -
    G E 33.5 31.66 65.16 31.66 65.16 0 2.83 8.03
    H G,F 0 65.16 65.16 65.16 65.16 0 0 0

    Te =0 +√ 14.33 + 17.33 + 33.5 + 0 = 65.16 or 65 days


    σ T e = 12.59 = 3.5482

    a) What is the chance (in percent) of meeting the schedule?

    Let Ts =72 days:

    z= Tσs −T e
    Te
    z= 72−65
    3.55
    z= 1.97
    0.9756 or 97.56%.

    b) Assume the owner delays the job start by 3 days. What is the probability
    (in percent) that the project will still finish at the originally scheduled comple-
    tion date?

    Let Ts =72-3=69 days:

    z= 69−65
    3.55
    z= 1.13
    0.8708 or 87.08%.

    c) What are the probabilities (in percent) of completing the project in:
    i. 55 days or less;

    z= 55−65
    3.55
    z= -2.82

    2
    0.0024 or 0.24%.

    ii. More than 60 days;

    z= Tσs −T e
    Te
    z= 60−65
    3.55
    z= -1.41
    1 - 0.0793 = 0.9207 or 92.07%

    iii. Between 65 and 70 days;

    Let 65≤T s ≥ 70 days:


    z= 65−65
    3.55

    z= 0
    0.50000
    z= 70−65
    3.55
    z= 1.41
    0.92073

    0.9207 - 0.5000 = 0.4207 or 42.07%

    3
    0.2 Problem 2
    PERT data have been computed for the network below. Determine the proba-
    bilities of meeting the scheduled duration of 24 and 32 days.

    Activity IPA te ES EF LS LF TF σ σ2
    A - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    B A 4 0 4 0 4 0 0.67 0.45
    C A 4 0 4 1 5 1 - -
    D B 6 4 10 4 10 0 0.33 0.11
    E C 3 4 7 7 10 3 - -
    F C 7 4 11 5 12 1 - -
    Te =0 + 4 +
    G D,E 2 10 12 10 12 0 0.33 0.11
    H D,E 1 10 11 18 19 8 - -
    I G,F 9 12 21 12 21 0 2 4
    J H 5 11 16 19 24 8 - -
    K H,I 3 21 24 21 24 0 1.33 1.77
    L K 4 24 28 24 28 0 1.67 2.79
    M J,L 0 28 28 28 28 0 0 0

    6 + 2+ 9 + 3 + 4 + 0 = 28 days
    √
    σ T e = 9.2245 = 3.0372

    Let Ts =24days:
    z= Tσs −T e
    Te
    z= 24−28
    3.04
    z= -1.32

    Let Ts =32 days:


    z= 32−28
    3.04
    z= 1.32

    Scheduled Duration Probability of Meeting Schedule


    30 0.74
    25 0.16
    35 0.99
    24 0.09342
    32 0.90658

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